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,. TITLE The 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology 1981. Source Materials Volume 2. INSTITUTION National' Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.
NO NSF - 81-42- REPORT / . PUB DATE 81 .. NOTE 455p.; For related documents, see SE.037, Q00-801. AVAILABLE FROMSuperintendent4of DocuMents, U.S, Government Printing OffiCe, Washington DC 20402. I i
. EDRS. PRICE MF01 Pius Po'sage. PC Wit Available from EDRS. . ° DESCRIPTORS Annotated Bibliographies; *Engineering,; Futures(of society Y; Government Role; *Long Range Planning;
% ' *Needs Assessment; *Policy Foimafiot; Problems; A *Sciences; ScientifiC Personnel; Technological _., Advancement; *technplogy IDENTIFIERS National Science eoundation% IL ABSTRACT This is the second of two volpmes of source documentt cortunissioned by the National' Science Foundation in preparing the second 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology fpr transmission to the Congress. This volume consists of the views of individuals selected by the Committee on SciAnce, Engineering and Public Policy of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and the Social Stience Research Council (SSRC) and 11.Fedepal agency reports. The paperscwritten for the AAAS committee deal with public ' policy probleffilKassociated with science andfechnoiogy.°Those written for ORS focus on current developments in'sociaX and behavioral science'4isciplines. The federal 'agency papers.deal with anticipated problems, opportunities and constraints related to science, techndlogy, and public policy from the perspectives of, the emissions of1,these agencies. Also.'includel3 is a selected, annotated bibliography of published sources and a subject index to the two SourceVolumes. (Alithbp/SLH)
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. DOCUMENT RESUME
ED 216 8I(88 SE 037 802 . .
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TITLE . The 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology 1981.
. Source Materials Volume 2. ' 4 INSTITUTION National' Science Foundatiow, Washington, D.C. REPORT NO NSF-781-42- / \. PUB DATE 81 ., . NOTE 455p.; For related docUments, see SE.037, Q00-801. AVAILABLE FROMSuperintendent4of DocuMents, U.S,. Government Printing Office, Washington., DC 20402. .
. EDRS.PRICE MF01 Plus Pottage. PC NOt Available from EDRS. . ° DESCRIPTORS Annotated Bibliographies; *Engineering,; Futures(of society Y; Government Role; *Lbng Range Planning;
. ' *Needs Assessment; *Policy Soimatiob; Problems; A *Sciences; Scientific Personnel;* Technological ._, Advancement; *Technology IDENTIFI,ERS National Science FOundation% a, ABSTRACT This is the second of two volimes of source documents commissioned by the National Science Foundation in preparing the second 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology fqr transmission to the Congress. This volume consists of the views of individuals selected by the Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and the Social Stience Research Council (SSRC) and 11.Fedepal agency reports. The paperscwritten for the AkAS committee deal with public ' policy problen*associated with science andfechnoiogy.'Those written for ORS focus on current developments in'sociaX and behavioral science' disciplines. The federal agency papers.deal with anticipated problems, opportunities and constraints related to science, techndlogy, and public policy from the perspectives of, the ,missions of.rthese agencies. Also.'included is a selected, annotated bibliography ofpublished sources and a subject index to the two Source-Volumes. (Alithb;/SLB)
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Contents Obt
SourcesVolume II
POLICY OUTLOOJ(: SCIENCE; TECHNOLOGY AND THE ISSUES OF THE EIGHTIES
o 0 A Report from the 4 American Association for the Advancement of.Science
PREFACE 389 Ray Thotojon, Albert H. Teich 4
OBSERVATIONS: RACING THE TIME CONSTANTS 393 William D. Carey I APPLYING SCIENCE ANDTECHNOLOGY TO PUBLIC PURPOSE'S . 1 APPLYING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO PUBLIC PURSES: A SYNTHESIS 397 Richard A. Rettig t Introduction , , 397 Encouraging Scientific and Technological Innovation 398 'Managing the Effects of Innovation 401 Securing a Livable World 402' The Challenge to Values and InstituticTs 404 Notes and References 406 '', 2 THE INSTITUTIONAL CLIMATE FOR INNOVATION IN INDUSTRY: THE ROLE OF MANKGEMENT ATTITUDES-AND PRACTICES ...... 407 William J. Abernathy gild Richard S. Rosenbloom , / Introduction 44400097i American Management and Eeortomic Decline A Case in Point: Consumer Electronsic 1955-1980 Managerial Attitudes and Practices 416' Conclusion .. 418 Notes and .References 419 a 3 DECISION-MAKING WITH MODERNINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY OPPORTUNITIES A1)11) . 4-'1 . CONSTRAINTS Donald J. Hillman \ The Growth of Information and Communications Technology 421' The Rise of the Information Age , 423 Policy Questions of the Information Age 424 Inforniation Technology Forecasts 6, 426 References , 428 4 RELATINS OF SCIENCE. GOVERNMENT AND, INDUSTRY: THE . ,i 429 CASE-OFRECOMBINANT DNA Jo . Charles Weiner ,.\ Introduction -4.. ,.429 Growth of DNA Research and Concern About Risks in the 1970s , 430 Current Status of DNA Technology and Its Regulation 432 Applied Molecular Genetics in the 1980s: Policy Prospects and prOblems . 435 .c ., ConclusiOn ., 439 Notes and References 439 Bibliography t 440 , , 5 CHOOSING OUR PLEASURES AND OUR POISONS: RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE 1980s o 441' William W. Lowrance
c Introduction - .c 443 .. The Evolution of Mortal Afflictions t . 444 Improvements in Assessment 45 Institutional Attention , 452. ,`. Scientific Integrity and Authority' .\ . 454 New and Underattendedattended Hazards ... , 455 Recommendations . 455 '''-` References . 456';
4 ( , 1 II SCIENCE,TECHNOLOGY, AND 1 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY '6 SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: A SYNTHESIS 461 Eugene B. Skolmkoff
IntroduCtion 461 -s. Background . 461 Key Issue Areas ..... 462 Institutions and Policy Process ...... 471 Conclusion 473 JJ Notes and References 473 7 UNITED STATES POLICY TOWARD SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE FOR MUTUAL BENEFIT 475 Charles Weiss, Jr.
Introduction 475 Science, Technology, anci,Foreign Policy Towards Developing Countries . . 476 Current U.S Policy and Programs 485 Conclusions N 488 Notes and References ...... 489 8 UNITED STATES AGRICULTURE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE WORLD FOOD SITUATION , ...... \...... 491 Sylvan H. Wittwer
Introduction and Background 491
Reasons for the Shifto Biologically-Based Agriculture...... 493 U.S. Agriculture find the World Food Situation 494 , The U.S. Agricultural Research System . 494 Food Production Research Priorities 496 Biological Research and Food Prdduction . 496 Human Resources for Agricultural Research , < 498 <
International Agricultural Research Cent .. < 428 Conclu;ion , ,500 . Notes and References 500 . . 9 TRENDS AND PROSPECTS IN WORLD POPULATION 503 Michael S. Teitelbauin I Introduction 503 Recent Population Trerids 503 Population Trends in Prospect 505 Linking PopUlation Trends to'Other.Problems 506 Linking of Population Trends to International Security Issues *507 Implications for U.S. Science and Technology 508 The Outlook 509 Notes,and References 511
16 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONSOF.M/CcERIALS AND l ENERGY RESOURCE DEPLETION 513 William A. Vogely' . , Introduction i ,,. 513 The Process of Resource Depletion , 51 ., The Concept of Resource Adequacy 515 Worldwide Distribution of Reserves ' 517. Resources and Economic Development - 518 .s. t Role of Depletion .'19 International Security Issues 519 a . Alternative Strategies 520 Summary 521 51/ References e 11 SCIENCE AND NAIIONAL DEFENSE: ASPECULATIVE ESSAY AND DISCUSSION 523 Kenneth E. Boulditig P Introduction \ 523° Science and National Defense 523 Summary of theiDiscussion 528 References 531
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ADV ISORY COMMITTEE 535 537 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS . MEMBERSHIP OF COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE,ENGINEEkING, AND PUBLIC POLICY (COSEPP) o 541 v . . e
,THE FIVE YEAR OUTLOOK FORSCIENCE.AND TECHNOLOGY: SOCIAL AND'BEHAVIORAL,' SCIENCES A Report from- the 4 Social Science Research Council ° 8
INTRODUCTION 545
_ 553 1 ASSESSIN3 THESIGNIFICANCE op SOCIAL SCIENCES RESEARCH '..* o . Kenneth Prewitt 553 A Inirodation ,. - Six Principles of Social'Significance ,.,553 The Significance of Social ScienceAn Outlook 557 559' Reference . .../ 2 BEHAVIOR ANDligALTH . - .... - 561 ."'David S. Krantz, David C. Glass;"Richard Gontrada, andtealE. Miller Summary 561 Introduction 562 Efig Behavioral Factors in the Etiology and the Pathogenesis of PhysicalDisease564 Treatment and Rehabilitation Illness , 575 Outlocilt for the Next Five Years 581 Npte ., - v '585 -, 04teferecesn 585 ; I , 3 ADVANCES IN METHODS FOR LARGE-SCALESURVEYS, AND vs . . EXPERIMENTS .,:. 589 . \ Judith M. Tanur a . vi Summary . ..., \I 89 Introduction , . 590 Total Survey V4riability' '` 592. Longitudinal Surveys ., 603 . Social Expenmentation ,,, ,.. , .. 607 Uses of Administrative Records 611 . . And The Future? , 613 Notes , 614 References - v - . 615
4 THE LIFE-SPAN PERSPECTIVE IN SOCIAL SCIENCERESEARCH 621 David E. Featherman.
Summary , .621 Introduction to the Life-Span Orientation 622 New Approaches in Research That 'Reflecta Life-Span Onentation 628 Public Policy and the-Life-Span Approach 641 -Note 644 References, L>4 5 STATISTICAL MEASUREMENT'OF SOCIAL CHANGE.' 649 Albert J. Reiss, Jr. , StimmarY i 649 Introduction 650 The Need to Measure Socia,1 Trends 650 , Conceplual and Analytic Approaches 653 Pri.,91ities for Models and Measurement 658
Problems in the De;ielopment of a National System of. SocialMeasurement. 662 A Five-Year Outlook for Research on Social Change b 664 ... Note 665 Refererices . 666
6 SOCIAL AND EMOTIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN CHILDREN - 669. Martin L. Hoffman
Su ry . 669 Inv . ,. ction ,. 670 Development in Infancy : 672 - Social-Cognitive Development A. 674 Moral Development, Aggression,. and Prosocial'Behavior: Influence of . Parents, Peers, and Television 676 Motivation x 68Q. . Sex-Role Development , , 684 No Effects of Maternal Employment 687 Im-pact a Divorce on Children 688 Future Directions I 690 Notes 691 References ., .692 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 697
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c CI 4.\ N FtDERAL AGENCY PERSPECTIVES: A Five-Year Outlook
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INTRODUCTION 701
1 NATIONAL SECURITY 703 Highlights 703 Introduction 704 Electronics' 704 Computer Technology: Artificial Intelligence, Automation, ansiRobotics 706 Command, Control, and Communication 707 Aeronautical Technology 708 Space Defense and Surveillance 709 Nuclear Test Verification. 710 Weapons 710 New Materials Technologies 711 Human Resources 713 Health and Survival of Combat Forces ...... 715
2 SPACE 717 ^ 111-lighlights 717 Introduction 717 Space Transportation and Operations ...... 718 Origin and Evolution of the Universe 4 720 Sensing of Earth and Its Environment from Space 723 Communications ail Data Management , 724 International Cooperation ...... 725 . . -. : I- 4 0, t .Aft IS ...... 727 . 3 HEALTH - 4 Highlights 727 727 Introduction r . The.New Technologies . 728 , . National Health Problems 729 . 733 Other Scientific Opportunities ., Techhology Transfdr and Assessment .7../ 733 Health Services Research ' 734 , Notes and References ...... : ...... 734 ...
,, , .. 735 N. 4 ENERGY -...... : Highlights , 7-35 736 Introduction . Fossil Energy 'Science and Technology ' 738 Nuclear Energy Science and Technology' . 743 Energy Conversion, Distribytion, add'Storage Systems 746 747. . Solar and OfhecRenewable Energy Technologies . .,`.. Energy End-UsTTechnology and Efficiency Improvement .' 749 Energy Research and Technology Base-Suppl 750 752 References .. : IF - / .- 8
. 5 GENERAL SCIENCE AND TECF-INOLOGY r ., 753 Highlights , 753 ,' Introduction 753 Life Sciences . 754 .Earth and Planetary Sciences * 755 .. - . P,hyscal Sciences aad Mathematics. 756 Engineering Sciences i 757 , 6 NATURAL. RESOURCES . 761 , t Highlights . s 761 Introduction ' 762
ropical Forests . . 762 ater Resburces . 7(3 rid Lands 763 Remote Sensing of Natural Resources 764 Natural Hazards' 764 Nonfuel Minerals , /7 765 Deep Ocean Minerals 765 Marine Fishery Resources 765
7 ENVIRONMENT 767 .. , Highlights ., ...... - .767
Introduction ''`,, 4 767
Solid Waste ,, ...... 768 Toxic Substances \ 769 Energy and Environment \ , 769 Emergency Splits 4 . 77.0 Hazardous Air Pollutants .. 770 Gaseous and Particulate Air Pollutit 1 771 Nonionsizing Radiation - 771 Pesticides , , t ...... 771 Water Quality / 771 Drinking Watei.., 772 Climate .. 773 1 \-- 8 TRANSPORTATION
Highlights . 775 Introduction.., - .. 775 Productivity . ', 776 WOrld Trade .. 778 M1 'IL -S-Ifety, 1. ... 779 , ,.. 9 AGRICLITtTURE 781 Highliets . 4t, . 781 Introduction .t .., : 7,81 - Agricultural Production 782 ...... , Human Nutrition . ... 785 . II. Marketing and Postharvest Technology . Structure of Agriculture and Policy Issues, - 787
- Rural and Community Development . , ,, 789. Reference 789
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. . . 10EDUCATIOI4;.. 791
0 Highlights 0.791 t Introduction 792 Research and Development in'Education ~ 792 795 Education in Science and Engineerink c References 798 t 11 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 799 * . -Thigh lights .. , 799 . Introduction, 799 . 1 rScence and T fr , , 800 Energy and Natural Resources s. 802 Oceans and Polar Areas , ..., 804 . Environment and flealth ,. ^. i 804. Information, Telecommttnications. and Advanced Technology 806 ,
.-.. )6PENDICES ~ e 1 .- BIBLI6GRAPHY 81,1 ;0. . Maintenance and Development of tlie Science and-TahhOlogy Base ..... 811 Contributions of Science and Technology to Industrial Innovation. Productviy,sand Fcoimci Gowh . . . !814 817 e International Contextof U.S. Scence and T . Science, Technology, .and Policymaking 820 . . National Security 8/2 824 , Space . 8:1,6 Health . `828 Energy 4 Natural Resources 832 Environment ,..44,--- 835 Transportation 37 Agriculture '838 EdNation 840 9~ INDEX 843
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1 0 , . , POLICYOUTLOOK: -: ... SCIENCE,TECHNOLOGY AND THE ISSUES OF THE EIGHTIES )
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The AAAS Board of ,Directors; in accordance with Association policy, hasapproveci publication of this study as a contribUtion to theunderstansding, of importan(polieyissues. The interpretations and conclugions are those of the authors andcontributors. however, A aqd do not purport to repi'esent the views of the Board or the Council of theAssociation.' at
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Preface
Early in -1980 the National Science Foundation asked the icy, and the AAAS itself, as well as other sources, such American AssOciation for the Advancement of Science as the New York Times Index. The Committee reviewed (AAAS), through its Committee on SCience, Engineer- the staff compitation and supplemented it with a number ing, and Public Policy (COSEPP), to provide it with of its own suggestions. It then used a set of criteria assistance in the preparation of the second Five Year developed by staff to evaluate the issues and select those Outlaok for Science and Technology. The Outlook, man'---that would be treated. in the project. The criteria included. dated by Congress in the National Science and Tech- s nology Policy, .OrganizatiOn and Priorities Act or 1976 importance of the issue to the national interest (higher (P.L. 94-282), is intended, in part, to identify and de- priority for issues with greater overall impact on the scribe national prOblems whien.scientific and tech-, future of the nation and relation to closely-held values
nological considerationsare are a NO significanCe and ---of the American people); NE. which warrant 'special attention by policymakers during time-sensitivity (not just immediacy, but concern for the next five years. It is also intended to suggest oppoili long-range consequences if no action is taken during' tunities forand constraints on :--using sciehtific and the qext five years); technolvical capabilities to contribute to the resolution involv.ement of science and technology.(centrality of of these problems 'and to achieve other national goals. their role in the issue and assOciatedeoblems or in The AAAS Five Year Outlook Project was designed possible solutions); . to address these public policy elements Of the second Outlook. An ad hoc committee, constituted as a sub- breadth lid relation. to 'other issues (definition in a committee of COSEnt, served as an advisorybody to manner sufficiently broad so that the papers could be Ihe project. A list of its, memberi and the frill COSkPP reviewed and discussed jointly and so each would help membership list appeai in the Acknowledgements section. illuminate the others); The first task of the Advisory Committee was to iden- adeqUacy of existing institutions to'deal with the issue tify the'issues to be treated in the project. For this pur- (higher priority to issues for which existing institu-, pose, the Committee*employed a compilation of poten-etional arrangements are inadequate); tially, relevant issues and issue-clusters developed by contentiousness, (preference to issues around which` AAAS staff on the basis of issues lists obtained from the there, is substantial confusion or misunderstanding); Congressional Research-Service, the House Committee ' novelty (less priority for issues which hive received on Science and Technology; the Office of Technorogy extensive attention recently, especially in the first Assessment, the-Office of Science and Technology Pol- Outlook):
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390 . AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK The Advisory Committee identified two sets of issues, to the authors of these synthesis essays was to attend the .1. one set centenng.pnmanly on an international theme, workshop; to digest the key elements of the papers pre- the pther'on a domestic thdme. For each of the issues, sented there, as well as the essence of the discussions an individual with a solid command of both the acadtmic that took place, and to prepare a paper that addressedthe literature and the policy environment was commissioned workshop theme and could serve in lieu of formal 'work- shop proceedings. The Synthesis essays were conceived . to prepare a paper defining the issue, describing what is known about It including the best available projections as papers that, Ideally. would be viewed by theauthors of how the issue is likely to develop °vet-lone next several of the papers and bytheworkshop 'Participants decades, and focusing on the policy implications for U.S as inctirporating andfairlyrepresenting their p6pers and science and technology dunng the next five years. , deliberations. At the same time, the synthesis. aupors In order to provide for a careful peer review of each were expected to draw upon their own knowledge and of the papers, as well as to explore the inter-wlations expertise to provide 'overall structure. organization. and among the paper topics and to address the larger context thematic unity that would go well beyond simple within which the topics are embedded, AAAS convened reporthge two workshops, one organized around the international Revised drafts or the papersiy +6;ented at the work- theme, "Towards Peaceful Change. Science, TechgoL shops, plus drafts of the' synthesis essays, were sent to ogy, and International Security," the other around the participants for an additional round of review several domestic theme, "Applying Science and Technology to weeks after each workshop Reviews were also solicited Public Purposes from a variety of other individuals who, had, not attended The "International Secuntyworkshop was held I I- the workshops-. The final products. as presented in this 13 November 1180 in St. Michaels, Maryland, andat- report, have benefited from the ,rev Jews and workshop tendedby 34 people. First drafts of fiveof the .paMrs discussions Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that whfch' appear in Part II of this report (Chapters 7-11) they remain individual statements No attempt was made were presented atiis workshop. The "Public.Purposts", to force consensus among the workshop participant, and workshop was held 10-12 December 1980 Hilton" "many participants, no doubt, disagree withinterpreta- Head, South Carolina. Thirty-five people attended, and tionsmils and policy positions contained in the pagers Sim- drafts of four of the papers from Part I of this volume'ilarly, the Advisory Committee and the AAA... while "(Chapters 2-5) were presented. Names of workshop par- seeking to assure. that the papers and workshops were 4 : ticipants may be found in the Acknowledgements section soundly based and of the highest quality ,, present then at the endpf this report. here in order to call attention to, and help illuminate The participants at each workshop constituted a di- discussion of, what they regard as vital issuesnoOto verse group of experts in various aspects Of science, advocate particular points of view. technology, and 'public 'policy. Each participant was Numerous individuals contributed to this project and qualified to serve as a technical reviewer for at least one deserve credit' for its accomplishments WeCap only of the commiskoned papers. Paiticipants were selected begin to list them'. First we muSt nbte the central role to represent a range of policy perspectives,-disciplines; of the Adviso7 Committee. Its distinguished members. backgrounds, and institutional affiliations. They were whose names are listed at the end of this repoa were *drawn from universities, government agencies, industrial extremely conscientious in fulfilling their responsibili- firms, and non-profit organizations, and included de- ties, contributed innumerable ideas, and provided mographers, compptei !and information scientists, ge- thoughtful guidance alroughout the course of the pr 'ect ologists; economists, microbiologists, agronoinists, and We are all deeply in their debt. persons from a host of other fields.' Most evident in,this report, of course, are the contr Drafts of Jhe papers were sent to the participants in butions of the paper authorsboth the authors, of the . advance of each Workshop, and each brought to the work- original workshop papers and the authors of the synthesis shop cti written review of the paper closest to his or her essays. These capable and dedicated individuals labored area of special expertise. The 'first part of each workshop under extremely tight deadlines, met them, 'subjected was devoted to intensive small group sessions inwhich themselves and the products of their labors to intense the reviewers met with the paper authors to discuss their scrutiny by groups of their peers, and cheerfully main-- comments and to provide the authors with suggestions tamed both their equilibrium and a commitment to the for revision. Subsequent workshop sessions, both small project throughout. Less evident, perhaps, but no less group and plenary, wereilevoted to exploration ofinter- important in the end, were the efforts of the workshop relationships among the papers and to discussion of participants, who gave generously of their time and en- broader questions surrounding the paper topics, ergy to review successive drafts of the papers, todiscuss In'order to capture the outcome of the workshop de- their reviews with the authors, and, in a sometimes dif- liberations, an additional papera "Synthesis essay" ficult intellectual exercise, to search for the broader wa5 commissioned for each workshop. The task assigned themes linking the'papets to one another. All of these IP
Preface391 individuals:. as well as the 'numerous outside resiewers iced the final manuscript, Joellen Fritschc and Marlene who prosided marl renews of tli'en pape'rs, hase our sin- P9sich, who helped design and typed the report, and . cere gratitude. Gingerlyti'e, who, lent her secretarial and lidministrafive Thanks are due also to William A Blanpied and Alan skills to the project at 'several crnical points A special Leshner of the NSF OTfice of Special Projects, and,to 'note of thanks must go to Jill Pace Weinberg; whose William D. Carey, J. Thothas Ratchfor0, and William title of:project secretary,administranse assistant barely G. Wells, Jr.. of the AAAS, all of whom had oversight begins to suggest the extent of her contributions. responsibility for the project in one sense or another, for We feel confitient that we 'speak for all of these con- their support and guidance, as Well as for helping to tnbutors and the many others from whose advice and pros ide a Strong Sense of purpose and a commitment to assistance v.e hem:filed in expressing the simere hope quality in the overall enterprise. that this effdrt, will bear fruit in improving our under- Among those who, in one phase or another lent-their standing of and ability to handle public policy issues hands, hearts, and minds to the project, and to whom involving science and technology. we are grateful, ace: Andrew Tolmach, summer intern at AAAS, w FIO helped develop the list of candidate issues and selection criteria and helped define the paper topics, Ray Thornton ;Albert H. Teich Ann Becker and Vicki Killian of Ann Becker and As- Chairman, Adviloty Project Director sociates. who guided the development and implemen- Committee Washington, DC tation of the workshop process: Came McKee, who ed- Jonesboro, Arkansas
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Observations.: 'R Ong the Time Constants' William D. Carer*
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If we have learned anything at all about the uses of recoghlie and array the emergent national and global science and vechnology in the postwar years, it is that issues confronting the United States and to explore With they have an unmistakable influence on contemporary care the contributions that scionce and technology could trends and outcome's. They have helped to make the make in managing such issues What this report for the .world smaller spatially, and larger, numerically. They National SLIence Foundation seeks to do is to bring to Wave multiplied our choices and scaled up our risks. They the fore, for., Congress and the ceverned public,. issues have put men into space and opened a new 'arena for of high policy saliency where time is not on our side. warfare. They have. illuminated man's beginnings and and where the involvement of sctence and techno1rtg3, shaken age-old postUlates about his worth and destiny. is large and gr9wing. They have unlocked material abundance and laid.new Left to themselves and to'dbusiness-as-usual system burdens on irrePlaceable resources. They have expanded of decision-making,, science and' tschnology will not ex- man's potential and diamatized his limits. They have tricate us from the trouble that is brewing. How, science advanced clarity and magnified uncertainty. They have and technology are deployed. toward which goals, and penetrated the deepest reaches iof knowledge and held at what rates of effort, all depend under our system upon a world hostage on the edge of-crisis. the behavior and the quality, of the nation's policy ap- We have no reasons to suppose that science and tech- paratus and, to be sure, on the publiconsensus that nology will abate their influences upon trends and out- legitimizes decision-making. Ineach of the issue areas comes, and Many reasons to meet that they will con- with which this' report deals, both time anri,infprmation tinue to shape society's choices-and dilemmas. What is are central to deciding how the nation's policies are, to unprofitable is to try to outguess the rate of advancing be positioned and carried out. When lead time is wasted knowledge and the fortis and effects of its applications it cannot be recovered. If information is so shallow that through technology. But it is a very differafftatter to policy routes cannot be laid out withiconfidence, inaction and confusion take the place of resolution. We cannot Executive Officer. RAAS look to science and technology to dictate policy routes,
393 I 6 4, 394° AAAS =.0L.ICY OUTLOOK wa, buts we require a broad and deep scientific and techno- in tegrated goals for the nation's political e.conomy.If IsTcal base upon which to construct and adapt our policy rationalizing the nation's economic age-nda is within our actions. The measure of that base is not represented by institutional capacity. other problems requiring ration- the money spent publicly and privately upon research alizing may not be out of reach. The lesson could well and developMent, but in,the appropnatenes and the yield be that complex public issues. not .excluding those tn- of these ,inveStments relative to the agenda of salient yoking the timely and effective uses of science and problems ttlaf we fate. It is in this sense that policy for technology, are. more likelyto respond to coherent science and technology, interbreeds with economic. do- "process" management than tc\ pretentioutorganiza- mestic, natipal security: and foreign policies. Mmal inventions. The eleven papers that compose the AAAS contri- Such process innovations aZnot self-generating es- bution to theFive Year Outlookdo not begin to resemble pecially in the case of issues that are not built as close ra a definitive catalog of the Issues thatwill troubleAmer- to the ground as the state of the domestic economy With icanscientific,technological, and public policy over the few exceptions, the Issues treated in this report are In next five years. But the papers do addrese representgive differential stages of development and calibration What issues of policy, and collectively they have the striking they have in common. However, is the perceived time effectf revealing institutional gaps in our national pol- constant, which is one thing in the case of population 14 machinery relative to dealing with the time constants growth and something else (highly uncertain) in the case that are present in varying degrees In the mix of issues of materials and energy resource depletion The makeup It is possible to read the report from cover to river, of "process management is nut likely to be uniform swimming through the troubled waters sketched byverb in dealing with the horizon of issues that we havetreated competent authorsand finally put it down with a sense in these papers. From one issue toanother, the process of an overwhelming agendaItis possible also to pick would call for different inputs of pu6lie policy; long- and cboose among the issues, arraying some in an ec- term corporate stratgyincentives and disincentives. lectic structure of priority, although the AAAS itself has collaborative R&D. and upgraded policy research in- not presumethto rank them.. But if the report as a whole cluding the social and economic sciences has objective validity, it should drive us,to ask whether Spheres of responsibility will also look differentfroi)n our national policy machinery is up to the job of recog- issue to issue, and it is,not the thesis of this report that nizing and dealing with the strategic choices that will be all responsibility converges on government and its in- required to bring science and technolbgy's weight to stituttons. Some responsibility does. however The na- bear, effectively and in time, on the management of these tional interest is. high across the whole array of issues, issues. One's basis of confidence, on this score, is very including those beyond the reach of the United States low. The meanings of an exercise in projecting 4,alient alone. Because none of the issues is unaffected by gov- 'policy issues over a five-year _period lie in questioning ernment's actions an4I failures of action, the very min- society's institutional capacities to formulate and manage imum responsibility of government is to organt7e itself multisectoral strategies aimed towards modifying or 'al- in the best sense of "the national security'' to keep lively tering future outcomes of near-term issues. For a plur- surveillance over the development of issue areas, and to alistic society,the institutions favored by command see to it that net assessments are made frequentlyand economies are not available. Straight line policymaking assimilated by the Congress and the planning arms of does not fit our constitutional practice. A middle road, .i,o,ur national security and domestic policy machinery on which an Informed political consensus is harnessed IA, he" residUal concern that arises from a study of this -to decision-making, and is driven by a recognitionof'inislnot trivial. It is that the problems are outpacing time constants, is the evident choice. eltiality and Intensity of our responses, and by wid- It might be objected that. such counsels veer towa ening tdarg,ins.Jhe potentials of science and technology imagining the impossible. yet, we are now witnessing are not being pressed, much less strained, to meet the something that not long ago would have seemedtin- national* interest. As the lead times' shorten, driven by imaginable, as the government's tudgetary, monetary, the time constants, risk and vulnerability Increase. In the regulatory, and tax strategies interact&Vhe mecha-' prophetic phrase of Thomas\. Wolfe, a wind is rising and nisgis of the market economy indesignegArnd pursuing the rivers flak;
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APPLYING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO PUBLIC PURPOSES I
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1Applying Science and Technology c I to Public Purgoses: A Synthesis Richard A. Rettig*. t
INTRODUCTION Quite obviously, in the next five years, in the five years after that, and for the foreseeable future, the United 1 We live in an era of continuing scientific advance and technological change.' This statement, a truism since States will confront a number of policy issues that derife perhaps the sixteenth century, usefully orients us to the in large measure froM scientific or technological devel- source of our present concerns. Not one but many sci=" 4nents. Theseare policy issues, moreover, because entific and technological revolutions go on around us. they have penetrated the social, economic, and political 'every day; for example, revolutions in consumer elec- fabric of oat- lives. They constitute an amalgam ofeac- tronics, information and commupications technologies,' cepted scientific and technological knowledge, scientific and molecular biologyall of which are discussed in the and technological uncertainty, and conflicting political papers in this volume. The scope and rate of change' and economic values. And they require collective action severely strain the capacity of existing economic, social, to manage if not resolve. . and political institutions to respond. "Whirl is king," It Might be assumed that nearly four decades after as Aristophahes wrote,, "having deposed Zeus." World War II, the historic watershed of government in-
Not surprisingly, the range and complexity oricien- volvement with the scientific and technological estab- 1 tific and technological change are such that"all contem- lishments of this country, the management of the sci- porary societies, industnalized or developing, grapple entific-technological enterprise would have become second with the effects of such change through their national nature to us. The government's annial investment in goveiAments. Few, if any, scientific' and ,telinological research and development (R&D), for instance, has c issues are of no concern to political leaders and insti- grown steadily from $1.2 billion in 1950 to $303:5 billion. tutions, and few,.if any, political issues of moment lack in fiscal 1980. In addition to direct federal expenditures scientific or technological importance, for R&D,, of course, the private sector of the economy invests comparable- funds in R&D, an estimated $29.5 billion for example, in 1980. Indeed, there was a period in the early 1960s when Senior Social Scientistfghe RAND Corporation, Washington. b C The views expressed in this paper ate the author's and do not_oecestanly reflect the opinions or policies of the optimism about the rate and direction of scientific and RAND Corpor technological advance, confidence about our national
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398 AAAS POI.ICY OUTLOOK capacity to manage such advance,anirtelief in the be- t ues, institutions; and processes. This last themeis per- nign effectsofthe fruits of science and technology were haps the most disquieting becauSe few have any clear at an all-pme high. Since then, however, we as a nation ,vision about how to restore existing institutions to a have expenenced great difficulties in managing the tech- satisfactory level of performance. But diagnosis must nological enterprise, especially in bringingscience. and sprecede prescription, and recognition'iof the problem is technology to bear on economic productivity,,compar- thuPa constructive step forward. ative advantage-in international trade, and innovation x We have also debated, vociferously at first but with in- creasing sophistication more recently, the undesirable ENCOURAGING SCIENTIFIC AND effects of technological advdnce, .i=ndeed, the potential TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION benefits of scientific advance have even been called into 4 question. The optimism of the early 1960syielded to The lagging productivity of the United States economy pessimism In the late 1960s and early 1970s. Today, one is a policy issue of great contemporarynapoitance.2 hopes: the nation is moving beyond simple assumptions Growth in productivity increased at an average annual about the scientific-technological system to a mow . re- rate of 2.4 percent from 1948 to '1973, but from'1973 alistic view ()fits capabilities and limits and to a con- to 1978 it was estimated to have grown at lep than one structive recommitment to the use of science and tech- percent.' The 1981 report of, the Council of Economic nology for the common good. Advisers devoted considerable attention to this produc- The followingsfour papers address in different ways tivity decline, enumerating as causSI factors the effects certain of these policy issues They do not do so ex- of govemment regulation, increases in energy prices. haustively: rather, they focus selectively oncivicaf as- declines in the rate of growth of capital relative to labor, pects of these policy issues. The scope ofthese. papers and decreases in spending on research and development 4 is limited mainly to the domestic UnitedStates, but not Edward Denison has suggested that the main eource entirely so. Issues of international rade. the international of decline is found ma set of determinants called "ad- nature of environmental pollution and the international vances in knowledge. "` This set includes technological character of science itself, make i ossible to limit knowledgeOf physical properties and how to make: our atention exclusivelrto the problems ofthe domestic ,combine: and use physical things: as well as managerial United States. Nor.,as Eugene Skolnikoff's paper argues knowledgeof business organization and management in'the second part of this report, is it desirable to restrict techniques in the broadest sense. Dernsbn lumps the it in that way. "advances of knowledge" determinants together with Several major themes serve to organize this introduc- a set of miscellaneous ones (the effects of government tory .overview essay. First, a policy issue of continuing taxation and regulation, the rise in energy price the high-level interest for the past decade is that of encour- shift away from manufacturing to services, and changing aging scientific and technological innovation. This issue attitudes to work) in a "residual" category comprising knows no partisan sponsorship, only perhaps that matters those least easily measuratfe determinants of productiv- of tone andemphasis may clkiffer from one administration. ity Commenting on what has happened since 1973. he everything went to another. says, "It is possible, even probable. that wrong at once among the determinants that affect the The second major theme is the need to cope on a , continuing basis wtth the effects of the scientific and residual series." 19 short; no single factor adequately technological revolutions that are interlaced with our explains.the productivity decline. daily lives. Policy concerns begin with the aforemen- In general, there exists a belief that declining R&D tioned need to encourage innovations of this kind, they investments have; contributed to declining productivihy reach across all efforts to mitigate the adverse social, and that increased R&D 'spending has the potential for political, and economic effects of such advance, . contributing to increased productivity. Considerable dis- Closely slated to the second theme is the third, cussion exist about measuring these relationships, how- namely, the need to secure a livable world by managing ever, as well as about the appropriate policyinstruments the waste or effluent of an .industrial society. ThedB,/for influencing the situation. Some would respond by unction between the two is that the latter is not primarilyt, ipereaiiing federal funds for R&D; others favor changing concerned with scientific and technological innovationl, the tax laws to encourage R&Dexpendituros by private as the immediate source of the problemsof health, safety,: firms. and environment, but with all the sources of risk in the The policy debate about the relations between research society. and development; innovation, and productivity will oc- during the Iy finally, an underlying theme of the papers, and the cupy an important place on the public agenda will address cortrence where they were discussed, is that.scientific next five years. Policy remedies predictably and technological advance has posed deep, perh'aps un- themselves to the aggregate or maCnpeconomic level. ip answerable, challenges to our established politicalval- this volitme, however, the paper by William Abernathy
1. S &T and Public Policy39) and Richard Rosenbloom stands in sharp contrast to this application of a high-technology fieldelectronicsto aggregate-level Policy disclAsion focusing in a provoc- a large consumer product market and a corporate will- ative and instructive .way on the issue of mahagenal ingness to pursue a to develop that market. That knowledge among the leaders Qf American industry. strategy involved a long tim-horkzon for matuRtion of The point of departure for Abernathy and Rosenbloom results, including a corollary willingness to make and is the decline of productivity and innovativeness of learn from one's mistakes. American industry. NotevIvorthy about their argument is The argument is not entirely persuasive. The main that they are not primarily concerned with 'factorsex- hypothesis that the attitudd and practices of American ternal to private hrms that might be causing this decline, J c4orate managers" have contributed to the decline of like inflation, high rates of taxation, and government U.S. international competitiveness is based on the single., regulation, factors that would increase the costs of pro- case of tie consumer electronics industry. Thus, it cannot duction for U.S firms relative to foreign competitors. be automatically, extended to even- the entire electronics Rather, they are troubled by the ins'tutional climate for industry or to other industnal sectors. The validity of the industrial innovation in American- s, by the attitudes argument undoubtedly yams across industries. Second, and practice§ of American man some will regard the case study data as more anecdotal Abernathy and Rosenbloom argue that the Xention, than systematic in character. of U S managars has beea diverted from long-term tech- Notwithstanding such criticisms, Abernathy 'and- nological change toward ,s,..ho,dterm adaptation to exist- Rosenbloom have challenged the conventional wisdom ing product markets Thy observe thai the analytic de- onihe central issue of declining productivity and the loss 0 tachment that charastenzes such managers is rooted i4 of the U.S. competitive international position.Ae im- the financial (and sometimes legal) pathVkay to corporate portant contribution of the paper, and of the Ffayeand leadership, detachment that contrasts with entrepreneur- Abernathy paper that preceded it,' is that it poipts'to the ial leadership that derives from "hands on" experience structural problem of managerial altitudesand practices with the R&D, new product, production, and marketing as being a major factor contributing to.the loss by U.S.
activities of thefirm C,pntemporary managers, they ar- ,firms of tecRological 'competitiveness. This issue needs gue, display a preference forihort-term cost reduction to be;OdelyAkted, and nowhere vigorously than rather than long-term technolo gical investment. These in industry itself. The' value of theper has to be' managers are market-oriented, but in a particularly nar- weighed as a oontnbunon to the deb te about causal rdw way. They' rely heavily Upon market research and mechanisms of and policy implications for the industrial its ability to reveal consumer preferences, rather than productivity debate.. depend upon the introduction of a new product to tap Scattered evidence exists that such a debateds begin- latent preferences and upon an educational campaign for ning. A January,;,1981 New York Times story notes that altenng those preferences. "planning with more distant horizons has^ become a fa-
Corporate growth and diversification, moreover often miliar theme among major American businesses, espe- - result from the acquisition of companies not closely .re- cially those competinein global markets where'foreign lated to the firm's historic .products. Rather, they are competitors, particularly Japanese trailing companies, guided by the portfolio theory of financial risk manage- have used the technique to achieve big gains in market , meat which results in a corporate strategy ofspleading .share.''' The account describes a shift in several U.S. the risk among a number of diverse enterprises in a firms to greater lOng-term strategic objectives, a group- complex firm. ing of enterprises within firms according to the appro:a To illustrate the consequences of these changed atti-t priate, but differentiated, long-term objectives, and sa tudes and practices of American managers, Abernathy linking of corporate salaries more directly to the fulfill- 0 and Rosenbloom present a case study.of the consumer ment of long-term strategic objectives. electronics industry. Several features are noteworthy' The Japanese themselves are participating in this de- about thij case. First, the consumer electronics indu§try, tiate. Recently, Akio Morita;,., who built the Sony Cor- as Abernathy and Rosenbloom note, is not heavily reg- poration into a worldwide success, pointed to several ulated by the government, neither by traditional fortns factors that give Japane,,le firms an advantage over U.S. oLaconomic regulation nor by more reqni health, safety, firms.8 These factors include: better long-term planning; and .environmental regulation. Thus, thKase forces a bonus p'ayments to 'employees rather than executives;.. search for a different explanation of the loss of U.S. and company-oriented rather than skill-ceinered execli. market position. Second, this high- technology product tive careers. . , area was one iii which U.S. firms, two dLades ago, held A different manifestation of the debate, perhaps more dominant and undisputed leadership, so the case reflects directly-supportive of Abernathy and Rosenbloom, is a a loss of market position that has resultwl from head-to- recent Harvard Busines's Review article about the limits head competition with the Japanese. Third, Japanese of "retunt7on-investment" (ROI) analytical techniques ,success lay in the ability of Japanese firms to foresee the for the evaluation of thk, value of research to a 'corpo- e J.
400 AAAS.POLICY OUTI,OK ..,, ration.' Mechlin lend Berg argue th 1'rnanarsg ofwhateverstripewill find few incentives to of re- when applied to research,. fail to va Atnite,st heavily in long-term R&D for' the purpose ()articular in- priately. Reasons nclude: ( I ) a temp cest4blishingtchnological leadership in tween the deman s for immediate resu dustries and markets:" The need Jo control inflationis ural pace -of in oliationi" (2) the unpre 4''' imperative Itt results of researeh and the inability'of ROI to he Finally, concern for inflation lates closely to legis- value of negative results, and (3) theimprecisko&tif lation to change the tax treatment ofR&D Such legis- measarejne i when theitesults ofJeseatch maybenefit ntion, now being considered by Congress. wouldin- .. many divi. ons of a company. The problems withROI crease the incentive's for Investing in R&D wall along are exacerbated in cases where a central research orga- time to-payoff. Public policies at this levelcould rein- nizatlon/exists for the entire corporation. intrafirin tech- face reform tendencies within American management nology/transfer is not adequately valued; nor is the -ef- in a ConIitructive 'way. fective use of slack resources of facilities and personnel. Two issues are raised beyond immediate policy con- nor the overhead value of a consumer servicefunction cerns by theAber6thy and Rosenbloom argumentIn ... t or a personnel recruitmengefig. The authors urge recent years, the educational requirement for corporate supplementing ROI analyses with periodic reviews, .success has been the Mikters, ofBusiness Administration mixed project selection', some'by product managersand (M.B.A.) degreeImplicitly, the authors (both profes- some by research laboratoryperSonnfl, calculation of. sors"at the Harvard Business School) ire suggesting that ROI of research throughout a product's life cycle. oh- the underpinnings of.graduate business ediniation need seryation of growth In the firm's relevant productline. to be reevaluated This implication deservesfurther and the -analysis of ROI flowing from self-developed ticulation and discusion o A-second avenue of discussion opened by the paper products.In short, the article urges sensitivity' tor the implications of financial analysis for the reseinchin- -pertains to the diffusion Into the public sector of attitudes vestitirnt and corrective actions that shift away from a anqapraetices similar to those deplored by Abernathyand .- RoWnbloom in the private sector We may be witnessing .short-term emphasis to longer time horizons The debate by the federal gov- appears to have begun. ,a general weakening ofyommitment ,What arettiti policy implications of the Abitipathy and ernment and federal- R&D managers to invest in long- Rosenbloom argument? First, they address themselves term, high -risk, but potentially high-benefit scientific and . to a problem-rooted in -the attitudes and practicesof engineennrresearch. If this is occurring in parallol to corporate managers and thus to an audience of American a similar develOpment within the private sector,then the corporate leaders. Reform of the behaviors they criticize long-term implications for the nation may he quite se- must come from corporate leaders; not fromU.S. gov- rious. Is there any evidence to suggest that such nde- ernment officials. Refreshingly, in contrast to the instinc- velopine eert occurring? tive tendency of many analysts and commentators,they Altho once May be too strong a term, there do not turn to the federal government for help, certain!are sig s that a long-termshift has been.oc- Second. U.S. firms, in concert with the U.S. govern- cumin al R&D management. Although the 're- ment, may need to become more aggressive in seeking field amendment of 1969, restricting defense long-term internationafmarkets. In particular, Abernathy eareh to project* ofdirectmilitary relevance, wason and Rosenbloom implicitly suggest the need for devel the statute books for only one year, many believe that. continues in force today-F2 Perhaps it is time to sym- oping greater access to the Japanesedomestic marke . Third, two successive years of double-digit inflation bolically "repeal" this amendment by asserting that all remind us of th'e present economic context within which, federal R&D agencies have a. responsibility to invest in managerial behavior occurs. The '1981report of the R &D that is broadly appropriate t£` their mission, not Council of Economic Advisers noted that inflation has just to that which is narrowly plgtinent to specific op- risen from an underlying rate of about I percent in the erational capabilities. first half of the 1960s to a present level of 9 or 10 percent. The analog in the public sector of the astendancy of More ominously, thy three 'major episodes of increase. finahcial andlegal professionals to corporate leadership have each begun "with a sharp increase in the underlying is the growing number of analystsHecbnomists, M B.A s, rate and 'ended with the ratefalling`only part way to its and othersin the federal government. The general ef- original level."" So each successive inflationary period fect of such analysts on R&D is toward shortened time has started from a higher underlying rate th&I its horizons -and sharper emphasis on payoff, a bias against predecessor. longterm R&D investments. This histoncal deyelopment of the underlying rate,of Strong ressures for payoffs from federal R&D have inflation means that a very strenuous effort will be re- led 'in soffinstances to a misdirecied concern for com- quired to significantly decrease the underlying rate. Fur- mercialization of R&D resultsBetter that the govern -. ti thermore, as long as the rate remains high, Ameri ment should invest in buildinS the scientific andtech- ! t-
P S&T and Priblic Polity401 nological foundations through long-termR&Dthan that. ...Numerous major policy problems are raised by the it should try to pick commercial winners, impact of the information and communications rgvolu- In universItyjesearch, scientifice uipment.is 6ecom-) tion,The structure oY the telecommunicationsand in- ., ing obsolete to an ever-increasingegree Mercover, formation industries.is being reshaped, the question of acadefilic researchers today devotea substantially larger individual privacy beet?' =6 more pressing, the manage portion of,their tinie toadministrativ titters rather than ment of resource data banks requires attention, as does to research The effects of these 'trends can only be per- the availability of international telecommunications and nicious overtime informati4 resources. The formulation of publicpolicy Three general points deserve statement in concluding under such circumstances is an exceedingly difficulten- . thisstetsonFirst, none of the above.faciors- affecting deavor. Technical changes reducing costs and extending federal R&D when taken alone is that consequential. It performance impingeforcefully on so many diverse pol- is the constellatibn of factors thatis significant and the icy areas, testing existing institutional and legalarrange- fact that they all move in the same direction. Second, ments in each, thatit is difficult to imagine coordination ) the severity of the problem is not measuredonayear at the federal goverhment level either by Congress, the to year basis, since this year looks very similar to last. Executive Mitch,. or the nidependent regulatory agen- But over five or ten years we see not continuity I5ut cies. Furthermore, the application of change is so de- discontinuity, a movement away from a commitment to centralized, so pervasive, that federal.olicy formulation long-term public R&D investments. is complicated by this fact as NII..The challenge in Finally. the may be losing sight of the rationale for policy terms is to deal sequentially and incrementally supporting public R&D The rationale is that public in'- with each new policy issue in ways that balance aconCern- vestmeni'is needed because ofan itterent tendency of focrea)ing the benefits of technical change,mitigating private firms to underinvest in the generation of -theex- its adverse'effects, andestablishinga fiaible framework , ternal benpts of R&D, especially at the research and within which the intelligent' guidarkie of changecan- foundation technology end of the spectrum." At a time occur. When private R&D investments are increasinglycon- Charles Weiner writes about another revolution,the - strained to short-term payoff projects, it would, be quite emergence from sustained research in moleCular biology unwise for public R&D to offer nothing buta mirror- of the gene splicing tee ues of recombinant DNA. image of that phenomenon. These techniques are used to synthesize insulin. interferon; and other proteins suchas industrially int; portan,t enzymes, and also open the possibility of pro- MANAGING THE EFFECTS OF INNOVATION ducing nitrogen-fixing feed gyins. Strong scientific ad- vance in tkolecular biology has been underway for Although the need to encourage scientific and techno-7 several decalies, the revolutionary applications of this logical innovation in the U.S. economy iskeenly felt,, body of scientific research are only dow beginning. it is also the case that several scientific and technological Yet the, recombinant DNA research is stanped indel- revolutions are currently going on before our eyes. One 'ibly impolitical and scientific minds as a threshold case area of continuing scientific and technological innova- 'in the relations of science to society. Whether this will tion, now a quarter of a century old, is that of information appear true a decade hence, of course, is not clear. But and communications technology. Another, far less de- the case represents what Nelkin has described as the veloped at present in its applications, btu prospectively renegotiation of thebargain between science and the no less sweeping in its potential impact on medicine, polity, the bargain being unquestioning public support agriculture, and industry, is that oCniolecular biology. forscience in exchange fora stream-ofbeneficial science- % Donald Hillman, in "Decision-Making with Modern based innovations), Information and Communications Technology: Oppor, Why recombinant DNA is regarded as a thresholdcase tunities and Constraints," correctly observes thatour warrants comment. First, .the prospective benefits are society is on'the threshold of an Information Age. !-re potentiilly so dirse, so significant, and theoretically provides an overview of the technical change occurring so reachable. prom medicine to agricultuie to industrial in the technologiesfinformation and communications. processes to environmental quality controls, a range of This change, driven y the continuing evolution in solid- benefits are within grasp because of the relatively simple, state electronics, is difficult to comprehend because of elegant techniques of recombinant DNA. its rapid rate, the merging of the two techhologies of Second, the potential benefits have been seen since information processing and communications, and be- the mid-1970s against a background of apprehension cause its manifestations are soOidesptead and pervasive about the risks of recombinant DNA research. Weiner throughout all aspects of daily life. The office, the fac- traces the concern for risk from the 1974 request by a tory, the commercial establishment, and even the home group of proMinent molecular biologists to their fellow are being changed by this revolution. scientists asking them to refrain voluntarily from per- ,.. IN 402 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK forming certain experiments, to the 1975 Asilomar con- each case is an instance ofscience-based.techno'logical ference, the Gantbndge, Massachusetts City Crtuncil change. The empirical or craft tradition in technological debate about local restnctious:on research at Harvard change will undoubtedly remain, important in the years and the Massachusetts Institute of Technollgy, tothe Ahead, but the truly revolutipaty technologicalchange Guidelines for Research Involving RecombinantDNA of the futnrewill very likely be based upon major sci- Molecules, promulgated by the National Institutes.'qf entific advance. Second, we value such scientific and technological Health (N1H). t different di- The NIH guidelines, Weiner notes, have beenrevised change for the 'power" it displays in "everal on three successive occasions sincefirst being issued in mensions. Rapidly declining costs characterize solid- 1976, each timeA?ecoinifig less restrictive. During the state electronics and are likely to typifytjte applications peak ofpublic concern, legislation was proposed to ex- of recombinant DNA techniques. Greatly increasing ca- tend the guidelines toindustnal.labpiatories; that pability is a corollary characteristic, Breadth and diver- change. islition,was not enacted nor is itliklk-ts.be. Among sity of application are' yet other dimensions of is clear to.all. molt academic, government, and industrial scientists, .The power of dais technological advance a doniensus exists today that the prospectsof risky out- Third, this- valued scientific arid technological ad- come; from recombinant DNA research have been stead- vance, encouraged by various governmentpolicies, must ily Jeduced, if not ,ruletl, out entitely. Iris' thisproved nevertheless be regulated. There no longer exists an easy reduction in risk,' they argue, that justifiethe relaxation one-toone correspondence in belief thatautomatically with social. of NIH guidelines and explains why restnctivelegisla- equates scientific and technological advance tion, was not enacted'. As Weiner notes, however, afew economic, and political progressIn the 1980s, our na- ad- scientists and members of the public continue to express tional commitment to scientific and technological vance /s tempered by the-realizationthat adverse cbh- a residual concernfor risk. applications of such . Thethird reason why the techniques of recombinant sequences, can. result from the DNA are held in awe by so many thoughtfulindividuals advance. This sober view is not antithetical to science but neither is it uncritically is that they permit laboratoryscientists to Manipulate the or technology in inspiration, very constituents of human life itself.Whether one be- accepting of a belief that science and technology produce lieves that than is the product of a long evolutionary unalloyed social beneficence.,Perhaps our current Situ- process"thrownp between ice ages by the same ation is more than a' mood. more than mere animus; forces that rust iron aid ripen corn," to use Carl Becker's perhaps it bespeaks of a deeper understanding of the felicitous phraseore foremost expression of divine relations betwe, science, technology, and society creation, the prospect of a few Sequestered scientists seeking to "improve" the situation isufficiently breath- taking to give us all 'pause. This concern, well founded SECURJNG A LIVABLE WORLD ; or not, is sufficiently genuine tobe in itself a counsel of prUdence from society to the scientific community. During.. the 1970s, the regulatory reach of the federal gcvernmept was, greatly extended to new areas of eco- Many bench scientists dispute thevalidity of this awe about manipulating'the elements of humin lift, but that. nomic and social life,' especially for the purpose of ref it influences public attitudes is incontrovertible. clueing health, safety, and environmental risks. The sig- development was The fourth, and more immediate, concernraina5y nal of wide public support for this recombinant DNA research is the challenge posed by Earth Day, on 2/ April 1970-.---Thefignal ofinstitutional rapid scientific advance to the social institutionsof our development was the creation of the Environmental Pro- included time. In particular, what threats are posed to theintegrity tection Agency in late 1970; other pew agencies the Occupational Safety and Health Administration(and of the university, to open communication amongsci- C: entists, to a heretofore largely self-regulatedscientific the National Ins }cute of OLupational Safety and Health), community,by the revolUtion in molecular biology? and the Consumer Product Safety Commission. Risk Seviral common concerns underlie these two papers assessment emerged as the central analytical enterprise by Hillman and Weiner. First, thephenomenon of in- of this new regulatpry activity, informing both the de- terest in each case is that of apowerfyl scientific and velopment of general policy and decision-making about technological revolution. Otte case, the merging ofin- particular cases in dispute.16 formation and "communications technologies, represents Several things can be said about this emergence of risk assessment. First, policy formulation and decision- a maturing effort whoseeffects are being felt across an incredibly wide array of applications. The case of mo- making.in health, safety, and environmental regulation lecular biology, and mainly the use of the techniquesof have been permanently altered, and riskassessor's have 'recombinant DNA, is less developed; but we are ohthe gained a place at the policy table." Second, this alter- threshold, in -all likelihood, of several decades`offar- ation in the Milt of participants in the policy arena has reaching applications: In a fundamental way, moreover, been facilitated, even required in some instances; by a 2 A S&T thul Public Policy403 strong trend to -centralize policy 'control in the federal logical advances in control technologyIndeed, a new government Centralization has tad two dimensions. ( I ) and significant high tedinvlogfindustry has arisenin decisions previously made by the-Kikate sectorare now response to health, safety, and env irorynental regulation. made jointly by themate and public sectors, and (21 ,This industry represents but another tie of risk assetssment policies Once left to the states haves now become the to science and technology; responsibility of the federal governmept Third, though Finally, certain industries hake been implicated as k risk assessors are now policy participtns, their assess- bearinE. great'er responsibility than others for worker ments do not dominate policy formulation, Most, if not safety and environmental quality. The t.hemit!al industry all, assessments are not conclusive andrev eilunre solv ed is' one of the foremost among these, being the object of issues of scientific and technicaluncertaini,y; and poht- risk assessment concerns for worker safetyrin handling icp1 decisions., -about the acceptable and desirable dangerous materials, consumer product:hal-et) for prod- .bution ofrisks, oasts, ankl benefits are required ucts like.- asbestos insulation, and.env4onmental quality In this content, Wilhanqowrarice s,uccinctIS,argues That is Affected by direct, widespread introduction ofa that the *problems 4:reated for industry and'government dangerous chemical substarnie like PC't3s. (polychlori- -1V risk-reduction regulanoh"stem as much. from prob- nated bipheny Is). An industry sU dependent upon science lems of societal attitude and decision-making procedure in the first instance necesanly requires highly trained. as from deficiencies of technical analysis and perform- scientific risk assessors ance He'then suggests several heuristic stepsto tin- it is important to o -, however , that m .- assess- prove risk assessment and Increase the likelihOod that ment goes beyond science apd,technology and embrac sound public policy- v.(II be articulated. 4 larger set of issues Risk assessment, and the-regulato Rather than evaluate Lowrancc's argument here, tic *gimes in which it IS. applied, ty concerns the can first clarify the social and political context in %hich byproductsthe efflusnitof modern industrial society itis written by asking several questions. What is. the whether generated by individuals, private firms. or gov- relationship between, risk assessment and science and ernments, at every stage from extraction to production technology' How does risk. assessment go' beyond the to distribution and use of the priinary products. The concerns of science and technology" Whatis the nature immediate products of science andVhnc4ogy_ may be sit' the political problem confronting risk, assessment' included in the domain of rislvassessritent, butAheht4A , reach There are a number of inverse ties betweeli riskas- of that domain is far larger. sessment and science and technologyIn t, irst . As a result of the scope of the risk assessment domain, certain areas of science are directly concernedith the nsk.assessors are drawn from widely diverse intellectual' physical phenomena that constitute the focus of much .11,t;IdsROskal and natural sciences, engineering, op- risk assessmentBroadly, speaking, the environmental eratrons research, sy sterns .i.inalysis, economics, soual sciences have been differentiated from the other natural science, law, and medicine. They are Affiliated, with a sciences in,the past two decades, though the relationship range of different institutionsuniversities. research and to the earth celences is often very closeAnalyses of analytical institutes (both nonprofit and for-proht): pri- ecosystem behaviora watershed, an air basin, a forest, vate industrial firms, government regulatory agencies for examplemay'be undertaken for -scientificor reg- (at all levels of government), an,d Public interest law ulatory reasonsor both And a larger number ofsci- firms. Not surprisingly, therefore, competing. and con- entists in academic ivitutions are engaged in the en- flicting values, preferences, and biases inform theas: 8vironmentakcielices today than was ever true before sessment effort regardlets of the agreement that may Second, certain areas of sciencehave eeteived strong exist on analytical techniques. . impetus for development from the effort to regulate risks lh this context, however, analytical techniques an in health, safety,anci'environment. This isapparent, for ' provide powerful assistance to polioformulation. The example, in toxicology where substantial increases in nature apd scope of the particular r7i,can be clarified, P research have occurred in government, academic and\mechanisms of exposure identified, prospective remedies industrial research laboratories as a result of efforts to .considered, and their respective costs and benefits as- regulate the toxic effects of chemicals. It may be the sess4d., But two factors limit the utility of risk assess- case, however: that toxicological research has-been de- ment First, though many assessments may identify some voted more to routine testing than to, expli'cating under- critical uncertainties associated with the mechanisms or lying mechanisms of 'action. - effects of the risk or its remedy, they ?hen ate unable Third, advkices in instrumentation and analytical to reduce those uncertainties to an insignificant level by techniques have vastly' extended the ability of man to analytical or scientific means. And second, conflicts that detect ailid measiire extremely low concentration of pol- arise from the inNity of risk assessment to develou lutants in air, water, and food '8 These advances in phys- comprehensive description of a risky situation and To ical measurement have', quite often, reinforced demands specify causal relations betweelt, effect, and rem- for more regulation Closely related have, been techno- edy, can only be resolved by policy officialsliclang 404 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK - howev er, and the advent ofa. new Is. exercising authoritativediscretionacy to January 1981, administration, the pi:ospect exists of a far-reachingeffo2 Judgment about the preferred allocation of risks,cosa, 1970s, not only the and benefits for any given situation or class ofsituations. to undo much of the work of the Lowrance would improve the process of risk assess- eyesses and und6irableburdens but the'..meritorious ' ment'for the purpose of focusing. conflict op essential effects as well. Whether the United States fis a society about the issues and facilitating the politicalresolution. -.6f such is clOse to developing a political consensus ...conflict. The greater use of co?Ytioarative analysis; the role and putpose of risk assessment, and its attendant Iltext few years explicit' statement of standards of risk, the specificatidn reguhitory activity, will.he revealed in of nsk-management goals, weighing risks in relation to That ts Ihe essential question, however, since risk as- sessment is. in the last analvsic, a political issue costs andbenefits, are all .means to this end. He also suggests that we move with alacrity to ideritify,first, the disthiss them,. antiat cases of "negligible risk" and : ' the other polethe cases,of "intolerable risk" and ceas# THE CHALLENGE: TOVA'LUES,AND creating them. Between these two poles, LowrancIFurges INSTITUTIONS ..that we set pnonties fof.allocating tht scarce resources needed to conduct riskassessments. Throughout the four papers there runs an undercurrent An interesting contrast is suggested. however, be-. of anxiety about the adequacy of existing societal insti- tween Lovvrance's recommended strategyand Weiner's iution and processes to deal ,with the diverse challenges account of the recombinant DNA "risk assessment raised by science and technology This anxiety waseveA exercise The former is rightly concernedabout hoi risk Moore pronounced in the conference discuss-ions in De- assessment can facilitate the 'developmentof political ceniber 1980 at w Inch th6 papers were initially p ?esented consensus in the, resolution of health. safety,andenvi- Reasons for this anxiety are suggested by the examples ronmental controversies.. Yet he addresses himself mainly on every hani.1Corporate managers of United States 'firms may in many'instances be ill suited by training, to improving The analytical' aspectsof risk assesment. the require- Weiner. on the other hand, reports on a process ini- career plans, and orientation to recognize Infot- tiated by concerned scientists that involves a&Pnplex ments for niaintaininu technologiCal leadership 'dialogue between scientists and the general public. That mation and communications technologies are altering the -stretching ex- dialogue has taken place on university campuses, incity way we work-and 11x7e and do business. councils. Congres.sional committee hearingand in the isting legal and institutional frameworks to their limits. still NIH Recombinant DNA jesearch Adxisory Committee yet these scientific and technological revolutions are The implicit lesson is that concerns forrisk -have been guided by ini:reusingly obsolete policies The commer- -allayed in large measure because of scientificdevelop cialization of molecular biolov is placing,severe strains members and merits, but also because the process hasforced the sci-- on many universities. both between'faculty their -institutions and among faculty members them- entific community into sustained communicationwith . And the de'mands that give rise to rist assess- the public selves. It is important to juxtapose the analytical and process mentfor example, the control of the-effects of acid . features of risk assessment. Analysis is essential, but rainfall or the guarantee of safe (14...,pocal o cannot provide the "right.: answers. And, because value nuclear wastetest the society'S' capacity to devise so- conflict is illtely for any specific risk-re,duction effort or lutiuns that are technically, 'economically. and politically policy, procedures that encourage the developmentof satisfactory. political consensus,are alsd essential to the fOrmulation The challenge- of science and technolog goes to all societal institutions; from private corporations to uni- of sound public,policy. .4.1410. The prospects for achieving political consensus about versities to the legislative and executive councils of the nsk assessment in the 1980s, however, may befragile. '- public sector. 'A principal sciurce of the challenge is the. The .decade of the 1970s, as noted earlier,witnessed continuing impact of scientific and technological change --.great extension of federal regulatoryactivity in health, which, as Skolnikoff puts it. has been central to ''the safety, and environment. By the end of the decade, there restt-uCturing of nations and of international affairs, par- as a growing body of opinion thatthis regulatory im- ticularly in the 35 years since'the Second World War," pulse had been carried too (ar and that its excessesneeded Policy issues have become a complex amalgam of sci- entific, technological, economic, and political factors. to be trimmed' back. One expectationabout the 1980s, Institutional relationships, have also heco'ite more com- therefore, was ;hat rationalization of the newregulatory plex, largely an adaptive response to the impact ofsci- , area might be undertaken, that is,recognition of the merit of the concern for nsk, acknowledgementof the entific and technological change National and interna- public excesses of the consequentsegulatoryburden, and a bal- tional spheres are more cioselyrelated than ever, define: and ancing of thi competing values in conflict.Subsequent and private sector roles are as difficult to
^di -(.1 O. S&T and PublicPolicy405 society is increasingly organized into large institutions is the cause of productivity decline, the effectivemeans that share responsibility for governance, usually without of stimulating innovation, the importance ofmaintaining commensurate authority. Continuing rapid and wide- a strong scientific and technological base, or the appro- spread scientific and technological change, increasing priate strategies for balncing health, safety, andenvi- technical complexity, and overwhelming institutional ronmental concerns against economic considerations, complexitythese are the characteristics of the chal- wide divergence of opinion exists among academic,in- lenge to societal institutions raised by science and dustrial, and governmental leaders. The absence of elite technology. , consensus contrasts, for example, with the period just What is the precise nature of the'problem posed by, after 1957when the United States responded to the Soviet science and technology?- It consists of three elements. Union's triumphant initial entry intoouter space. With- First, the political institutions of popular, democratic out such consensus, clear signals cannot be given to the control are inadequate to guide the scientific and tech- scientific and technological enterprise and popular sup-' nological enterprise and mediate its effects. Surprisingly, port for agreed-upon policies cannot be generated. none of the authors looks to the election of public of- The final element of our present difficulty is that the ficials as providing exxaressions of voter preference, on Scientific and technological establishment itself is leftin policy issues of any scientific or technological conse- a vulnerable position and one from which it is unable quen-JAN6r "do they' lookto elected officials in state to exercise strong leadership. The ,inadequacy of the -in- legislatures Or Congress for significant policy guidance, stitutions of popular control to provide guidance to the though titit might 15e a reasonable expectation in a dem- enterprise is a recent problem and troubling in itsown ocratic society. way. But deeply divergent views among elite policy The authors, who come from backgrounds in physical opinion leaders are more unsettling. , .science, engineerifig.'applied social science, and history, Are there responses to this complex challenge posed and the scientists, engineers, buSinessmen, and analysts . by the relentless march of science and technology? At concerned with managing the scientific and technological one level, it mustbe remembered, a number of thoughtful enterprie, are oriented to thee executive agencies of the men and women grapple with the day-to-day manifes- federal *government. Often, however,a great ambiva- tations of the full range of policy issues Taised by and lence exists toward established authority, and great con- .. affectingscience and technology. This daily hand-to- 'cern:exists about the adequate representation of "the hand combat. so to speak, responds in an imporlant way pubic" in policymaking. It is clear that the .`noticeand to the challenges the society faces. comment " 'means of securing critical information from Beyond the attention given to the immediate aspects interested parties, technical experts; and the general pub- of the challenge, however, it is necessary that the task lic draws only' tepid support froth many in the scientific of forging political consensus about major national strat- and technological cetnmunities. Nor does reliance upon egies for science and technology receives high pnonty the court system, either for fact finding or dispute set- in' all quarters of the interested public. The quality of- tlement; engender any deep allegiance from thecom- 'dialogue that is required to reconcile the complexity of munity of experts scientific and technological issues with the need for elite Nevertheless, the problem remains of how to appror, consensus and broad public support is high. Deepening priately consult the public on issues where scientific and and enriching that dialogue should be a matter ofconcern technological considerations loom large. Is the public td -all. repres'nted by articulate public interest groups, other Finally, it may be the appropriate historical period to. parties at interest, or the citizenry at large? Is it to be think more seriously about decentralized responses to the consulted through the notice and comment procedures challenges of science and. technology. Both the revQ41- of administrative rule making, through public hearings, tions of information arid communications technology and through formal advisory, bodies, or how? The irony of molecular biology are awesome because their current. should not be lost. Having ignored elections anegis; or expected applications penetrate so deeply into so many laturesthe central institutions of public parti ion facets of contemporary life. The capacity of centralized in the governance of our societywe then searchseri- policy formulation by the federal government is.taxed ously but eith limited success for acceptable substitutes. perhaps beyond its limit's if it attempts to respond to the The dilemma is one of the deeper institutional crises of full scope and complexity of scientific and technological bur times and impinges directlyon the issues raised by change. The recombinant .DNA lessonmay represent in science and technology. an-important way, then, an early Model of how the sci- NY The second element of the problem is that elikefttinion entific and technological communities and the public in the United States is deeply divided on the appropriate . ropriate ought to engage each other as they mutually strive to resppiise-to a number of key policy issues_affetting_the__guide the societal response to science and technology. scientific and technological enterprise. Whether the issue These challenges to values and institutions deserve 406 AAS POLICY OUTLOOK serious, sustained attention by many in the years ahead If change must come, better that it should besubjeCted debate within the because the effects of scientific and.'technological ad- to continuous scrutiny, discussion, and vance are sufficiently powerful to alter our ,lives and framework of democratic institutions rather than take us patterns of social, economic, and political organization. unawares.
NOTES AND REFERENCES 11 Edwin Mansfield, "Research and Deve,lopment, Productivity, andInflation," Science,vol 209 (5 September 1980), pp 1091-93 Science,vol .1. I use the more neutral terms of advance and change rather than 12. Rodney'W. Nichols, :4Mission-Onented R&D," 203, Public Law progress. since the relation of scientific and technological advance to 172 (2 April 1971), pp. 29-37; see also Section Congress, social progress is a matter of continuing discussion and debate. 91-121, Military Procurement Authorization for 1970, 9Igt 2. Frank Press, "Science and Technology in the White House, 1977 1st Session,. I I August 1969. The State of Academic to 1980: Part I ,"Science,vp1 211 (9 January 1981), pp. 142-44. 13 Bruce L R. Smith and Joseph J Karlesky, (New York 3. John Willsh, "Is R&D the Key to the Productivity Problem?" Science. The Universities in the Nation's Research Effort Science,vol. 211 (13 February 1981). pp. 685-88. Change Magazine Press, 1977) 14 Kenneth J. Arrow, "Econornic Welfare and theAllocationof 4.Economic Report of the Presidenttogether withThe Annual Report '(Washington, D C ,January Resources for Invention," pp. 609-21 inThe Rate and Direction of bf the Council of Economic Advisers (Princeton. N J. 1981). pp 68-70 Inventive Activity. Econoinic and Social Factors University Press, 1962), Richard R Nelson, Merton 1 Peck 5. Walsh, "Is R&D the Key to the Productivity Pfoblem?" Princeton Technolog), Economic Growth, and Public 6 Robert H. Hayes and William 1 Abernathy, "ManagingOur Way and Edward D. Kalachek, (Washington. D C The Brookings Institution. 1967), esp pp to Econlimic Decline,"Harvard Business Review,vol 58 (July-August Policy 151-210 , 1980). pp. 67=77 Negotiating the Control 7. Thomas C. Hayes, "Managers Adopting Long-Term Outlook." 15. Dorothy Nelkin, "Threats and Promises . (Spring 1978), pp. 191-210 New York Times (11'January 1981), p. 40, in National 'Economic of Research,"Daedalus Of Acceptable Risk Science and the Survey (Section 12). '16. William W. Lowrence, 8. Henry Brandon, "SONY Head Analyzes Japan's Formidable "Determination of Safety(Los Altos, California. William Kaufmann,, The Washington Star,20 March 1981. and Hobart Rowen, Inc ,1976). ,, Edge," The Politics and Economics of "Management Is a Family Affair, Japan Counsels U.S. Firms."The 47. Compare Charles L Schultze, (Washington, D.C. The Brookings IneitutiOn, 1968). 12 April 1981 Public Spending Washington Star, Measure Small Parti- 9. George F. Mechlin and Daniel Berg, "EvaluatingResearch 18. Arthur L Robinson. "Myriad Ways to vol. 212 (10 April 1981).. 146-52, and Thomas H ROI Is Not Enough,"Harvard Business Review,vol. 58 (September- cles,"Science, Science.vel. 212 October 1980), pp 93-99. Maugh II, "New Ways to Measure SO2 Remotely," (10 April 1981), pp. 152-53 , 10Economic Report of the President .00 e
4,
-23 C 0 Sit
The Institutional Climatefor innovation 2 ,in Industry: The Role of Management Attitudes and Practices
William J. Abernathy * and Richard S. Rosenbloom **
O
INTRODUCTION role of management attitudes and practices in theman- Evidence of decline in the productivity and innovative- agement of technology) We hope that this case study ness of American industry is being interpreted in various, of an industry will stimulate other empirical examina- ways as governmenst, industry, and academia struggle tions of the consequences of prevalent Americanman- to comprehend a troubling phenomenon. Some analyses , agerial precepts. The rebent history of the consumer point to such external factors as inflation, taxation, and electronics industry provides' a fertile ground forex- regulation, which have the common effect of increasing loring broader issues. Of particular interest are thecon - costs incurred by U.S. firms in relation to their foreign its between the 'strategic behavior of certain Japanese competitors in that industry and the behavior of the lead- competitors.. Others stress institutional factors such as % industry structure and the attitudes and practices of ing Arnericanfirms.3 Analysis ot these contrasts can lead managers. to useful insights into fundamental problems facing The institutional climate for innovation is important American industry in the 1980s. to the behayior of industry. By climate we do net mean just a set of factors external, to the firm, but a set of attitudes and practices observable within business. Cer- AMERICAN, MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMIC tain basic managerial /assumptions shared' widelywitgin DECLINE Americap culture shapecompetitive strategies. Strategy, Speculation during the, Reagan presidential transition in turn, provides the link between firm and environment.' about the possible declaration of a National Economic This paper examines -a series of innovations in the Emergency dramatized widespread concern about the consumer electronics industry to explore the strategic health of the American economy. Symptoms of funda- mental economic difficulty have been emerging for at Professor cif BusinessAdminisCat)n.Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University. Boston. Massachusetts least a dozen years. These include increasing rates of David Woolf Professor of Business Administration, Graduate School of Business Admin- inflation and unemployment, and-declining balances of istration. Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts international trade in key industries.
407 0 El 41ki 408 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK ' Table 2Gowth of Labor Productiviiy by Sector.1948-1978 The causesof these basic problems- are complex. The relative importance of contributing factors remains a Growth of labor productivity matter of judgment anddebte, There is little disagree- (annual average percent) ment, however, that improved utilization oftechnology 1948-651965-731973-78 can be a vital pkt of any remedy.'The "Stevenson- 1 I% Wydler Technology Innovation Act of 1980" finds that: Private business 32 %r 23% Agriculture. forestry. and fisheries 55 53 29 42 , 2 0 -40 Industrial and technological innovation in the United Mining Consitction 2.9 -22 8 States m y be lagging whencompared to historical 31 24 17 patterns d other industrialized nations.' Manufactunng Durable gotids 28 19 12 Nondurable goods 3 4 3.2 2 4 Available indicators of nationbl -trends in technological Transportation 33 29 09 innovation, although neither direct nor conclusive, do Communication 55 48 71 provide 'cause for concern. A recent summary of these Electnc, gas. and sanitary 40 01 trends, presented an article by one of the present services 6 / .3 0 04 authors (Abernathy) with Robert H. lihyes,5 points out Trade ;2- 7 - Wholesale '3 I 39 02 that: Retail 24 23 0.K Finance. insurance. and real estate 10 -03 14 labor productivity is increasing more slowly in the Services 15 19 05 United States than in most other industrial nations -08 09 -07 0 Government enterprises (Table 1); Note Productiuti, data forer Ice,construction, financeinsuranstand real estate are rates of productivity growth throughthe U.S. private lotted Ittlamt AbematM 2); Soue Bureau of labor Statistics Reprinted from Robert If Hayes and tIs sector peaked in the mid-1960s (Table Managing Our Way to Economic DeclineHunan! BusinessRe,on. col 5SIluh-August expenditures. in indittrial research and development 1980E p 69 (R&D), as measured in. constant dollars, also peaked 'then in absolute terms as well- as in relation to Gross National Product (GNP) (Figures 1 and 2). As interpreted id"Managing Our Way To Economic Decline," American managers, guided by what they believe are the newest and best techniques for manage- Although some have attributed theseetrends to eco- . nomic or political factors, Hayes andAbernathy argue ment, have increasingly directed their attention to matters that the central explanation lies in the attitudes and prac- other than innovation. These- techniques, despite their tices of American managers. In their view, successin sophistication and widespread usefulness. seem to have the world marketplace requires -an or=ganizational com- encouraged analytic detachment at the expense of the experience. They mitment to compete bn technological grounds, byof- insight that comes from "hands on" feting superior products or superior manufacturing promote a preference forshort-term costreduction rather than long-term development of technological competi -' processes. tivenpss. According to Hayes and Abernathy, by con- centrating on serving existing markets rather thIn ere:
. ating new ones, and by excessive emphasis on short-. Table IGrowdrin Labor Productivity Since 1960 (UnitedStates term financial returns and "management by thenumbers, k and Abroad) many firms seem to have decided,against.-striving for Average annual percent change long-term technological superiorityas a competitive weapon. They nay thus have madethemselvc4vulner- Manufacturing Alrindustnes able to competitors whose strategic thrust leads to tech- 1960-1978 1960-1976 nological superiority add market leadership. United States 2.8% 1.7% This provocative thesis attracted widespread attention United Kingdom 2.9 ,; ' 2 2 and acclaim, which the editors of the Harvard Business, Canada 4.0 2.1 Review believe may have excee0ed that of any article Germany 5.4 - 4.2 . ever published' in their frequentlycited journal. The France 5.5 4.3 Italy 5.9 4.9 seven judges for the McKinsey Award,given dinually Belgium- 6.9*0 ,to the best article in the Review, unanimouslyawarded Netherlands 6.9* it first prize in 19806 Sweden 5.2 This thesis is elaborated and madeconcrete in the 8.2*e' Japan following case gudy of innovation in the consumer elec- I960-1977 Source.'Couneil on Wagc and Pnce StabilityRepon on Prodactony(Washington. D C tronics industry, which emphasizes certain strategic Executive Office of the President. July 1974) Repnnted from Robert If}faxes and William choices made by JapaneSe and American firms competing 1. Abernathy. "Managing Our Way t6 Economic Decline,Harvard Business Rntes, in the U.S. market. While the sillily suggests certain 58 (JulyAugust 1980), p. 69 a'
30 Innovation in Industry409 . (Percent) U.S. output in consumer electronics was $1.5 billion; 3.8 ,Japanese firms\ produced a mere $70 million. Twenty- '3.6 fi.ve years later the situation is reversed, with Japanese revenues in consumer electronics more than twice thosef U S.S R. 34 '1116-f the U.S. manufaTrers. And volume isnot theonl 3.2 measure of Japanese leadership. Japanese designs usu- ally offer the highest levels of performance. Unique fea- 3.0 tures, such as-the bilingual or stereo sound tracks, are available on television receivers in Japan. Japanese firms 2.8 also have an overwhelming lead in the most exciting and United 2.6 lucrative new 'consumer product to reach the electronics United States' 2.4 Kingdom (Millions) 2.2 AA---1-'-'1.0.' $30,000 France - / Cufrent dollars.. 20 ./V / ...... --- Constant 1972 dollars' / / West 20,000 1.8 .. . Ger m a ny .. - I/ / . Development 1.6 . i/...... : Japan .40.je 00. 14
1.2 10,000 9,Q00 11) 8,000
0.8 7,000 6,000 0.6 5,000 Applied resear 4,000 0.2 of 3,000 0-1-- 1 1 1 I I 1 1 11 1 t-ii1 1961 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 78
Figure 1.National Expenditures for Performance of R&D' as a Per- cent of GNP by Country, 1961-1978 2,000
'Gross expenditures for performance of R&D including associated capital expenditures 2Detatled information on capital expenditures for R&D is not available for the United States Estimates for the penod 1972-1977 show that their inclusion woad have an imptict of less than one-tenth of 1% lot each year Source Science Indicators-1978 (Washington. D C . National Science Foundation 1979), 6 1.000 Pole The latest data may be preliminary or estimates ( 900 Basic research 800 700' hypotheses and generalizations,it cannot, of course, 600 "prove" their universality. Althoughwe view thisease as, an interesting example of the strategic use of tech- 500 tology fo gain market leadership, we do not imply that, such a strategy ig always appropriate. 400 a-
300 1 I I .1 1 1 I I: II 1111 I I) 1960.62 t4 66 68 '70 72 .74-76 78 A CASE IN POINT: f ,,CONSUMER ELECTRONICS 1955-1980 Figure 2 Industrial R&B Expenditures for Basic Research, Applied( Research, and Development, 1960-1978 American firms pioneered ih consumer electronics tech- ., nology and until the 1960s took the largest share 'GNP implicit pace deflators used to convert current dollars to constamt1972dollars of Source Science Indicators-1978. p 87 revenues and profits in the world's markets.' In 1,9,55, Note', Pmlunmary data are shown for 1977 andestimates for 1978 q.
s . 410.AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK and industryince the heyday of color television in.the n by Sony, developed a maj& new market segment competition. Annual sales of portable the videocassette recorder (VCR).Factorysales met little of seven of VCRs, worldwide, exceeded $3 billion in1980 and radios in the United States grew by a factor within a' few years and Japanese imports captured two- 95 percent of those revenues accrued tofirms in Japan. ,flow did this startling reversal come about?More to thirds of the increase. the "imitative" Japanese seize the By 1960, then, export markets werealready significant the point, how di valued at $150 mil- innovative leadersaip in this large and important indus- to the Japanese producers. Products shipped- forerunner lion (87fr percent of which were radios) were try? Is this an isolated circumstance or is it the indus- of more to come? Let us look at the history IA theVCR,abroad, representing 20 percent of the Japanese protillicers and how a handful of Japanese companies came todom- try's output, while U.S. consumer electronics their inate a,major world, market by tracing tltoryof'the exported only $25 million worth, about 1 percent of scale of consumer consumer electronics industry in theUnited States and output. As a consequence, by 1960 the electronics production in Japan was'already one-third Japan since 1955. fast. In the mid-1950s, consumer products represented only that of the,Americati industry and gaining into the one-fourth of the output of the U.S. electronics industry; The Japanese firms had not yet made inroads receiver the balance consisted of industrial;andmilitary equip- larger and potentially more profitable television business in the United States, but they were nowready ment. Yet, in.absolutc- terms, consumerelectronic( was for $1.5' billion in factory to try. Having achieved an economicscale of production, a big business, accounting Japanese monochrome and possessing a large labor-cost advantage, a sales in 1955, the year of peak sales for of the television sets. Output of some eight milliontelevision firm might well hope to enter the mainstream monochrome television mass market. Some tried in the sets, valued at one billion dollars,proiiided two-thirds withoutinuch of the entire .consumer electronics industry's revenues second half of 1960 with 19-inch sets, but low price, did not offer that year. (The remainder cafrce largely fromradios and ;success; these sets, even at a American phonographs.) But the conspmer market for television sufficient advantages over the established U.S.' market was by then nearly saturated (88 percentof all homes 'brands. In 1961 the Japanese share' of the leveled off in was a negligible 0.3 percent. would have a set by 1960), and demand with the the late 1950s at about six million sets peryear-98 One Japanese firm, rather than competing U.S: firms in their. areas of strength, chose adifferent percent of them black and white..Most sets were either sizes of about 20 strategy, one.reminiscent of its successwith the shirt- table or console models with screen firm was inches melsured diagonally. In a highlycompetitive pocket transistor radio five years earlier. The products to Sony Corporation, and it introducedasmall, lightweight market, manufacturers standardized their 1111 a tiny 8-inch gain volume, efficiency, and hence a lowerretail price transistorized monochrome receiver Show in July 1960, a year manufacturers tried to introduce screen at the Chicago Music to the consumer. A few Sony was "portable" 19zinch models as second sets, but without before launching it in the American market. apparently' undaunted by the market failureof miniature much success. As a result, a shake-out among some150 television set manufacturers le t only 27 in1§60. receivers mall the United States or by U.S. market the trade press was quoting industry would be another five years bre the industry experi- forecasts. In 19 representatives as asserting that' significant numbersof enced anotherboon with the gro th of demand for color r \ American consumers would never buy sets with screens - television. P The situation in Japan in the 1 50s wasquite different. smaller than 17 inches. output of the Japanese But those assertions were wrong. Althoughtransistors Starting from a small base, th "micro" television sets were consumer electronics industry increasedtenfold from were still expensive and the discount houses were selling 1955 to 1960. Television set productionamounted to a luxury item ($250 when less than the middle-of-the-line 21-inch sets for under150); those only about $30 million in 1955, slight y e ajiproach to value of radios produced that year. Bby 1960 tele-. little sets were unique. In an innova Japan's distribution, Sony establithed its own salessubsidiary vision sets were already the dominanepr duct in directly domestic market-59 percent of the con merelectron- for the United States and sold the micro-receivers large retailers. Promoted ics outputand 45 percent of Japanese hoeholds had to department stores and other sales zoomed, already acquired a television set. by a highly creative advertising campaign, rapidly outstripping the ,still small company'sability to Despite the booming 'demand for television athome, Japanese firms invested significantly between1955 and supply.the product. abroad. The Other Japanese companies soon followed Sony's ex- 1960 in opening 'new markets for radio sets slow to re, the.U.S. radio market ample, but the If:S. television industry was story oltherr 056 "invasion" of Electric. (G.&) with all-transistor portables is well'known.8Offering a spond. Not until late 1963 did General this category, line of miniature receivers half the size and weightof becsme the first company to make a set in Althoughmost of the the smallest American products, Japaneseproducers, led an 11-inch tiansistorized-portable. ° 32 Innovation in Industry411 'other U.S brands soon filled out their lines with small- key components. Matsushita Electronics Corporation, a screen sets, it was usually with Japanese-made products. joint venture between Matsushita and Philips soon be- The-Japanese thus established a base in small-screen sets. came the largest Japanese producer of these components from which they could expand to larger models, and and a technological leader in its own nght. The audio eventually into color. tape cassette, probably the most significant advance in The numbers tell the story. LJ ru ted States imports of audio magnetic recording, was invented Philips in the lapanse television sets had been negligible in 1960:but early 1960s and soon licensed to Sony Matsushita, and the success of micro television boosted imports to other Japanese firms who later became leaders in the 120,000 units- in 1962 and a million in 1965one in consumer audio recording market. eight of the monochrome sets sold in the United States. . While furthering the technological development of Eighty percent of the Japanese imports hadscreen sizes their products, the leading Japanese electronics firms also' of 12 inches or less, representing substantially all of invested in improved manufaciunng processes .ahtt in market for that segment. American companies, now con- maintaining a Nally skilled work' fume, these steps too centrating on the accelerating demand for color receivers; proved a compete ye advantage in the long run.. helped boost the demand for these Japanese monochrome Japan's large domestic market for consumer electron- sets, 'foi fully 70 percent of the Japanese imports bore ics, second only to the United Statesin demand, was American brand 'names. also important in the growth of Japanese firmsin the 1960s. Behind protective barriers that limited foreign entry, the Japanese firms competed fiercely against each COLOR TELEVISION other. New technologies were first introduced on the In the late 1960s the big story in consumer electronics local marli'et, often as important weapons. in their com- vas color television. Color telev ision first took off in the petitive rivalry. Although exports were taken seriously, Amencan market, where demand grew from S50 million domestic sales accounted for 60 percent of therevenues in 1960 (of $800 million total televisionreceiver sales) of the Japanese c.onsumer electronics producersin 1969. io a 1969 level of S2 billion annual factorysales, or 80 With exports and domestic sales combined, Japanese percent of all, telev isions sold. Japan's domestic demand producers accounted for nearly two-fifths-of the world- began in 1967 and grew rapidly until 1973. The european wide output of consumer electronics products in 1969, , color television industry , unable to agree on a technical in a sountry representing only one-quarter of world de- standard until 1966, did not grow significantly until the mand. By then Matsushita, which was the largest Jap- early 1970s. anese firm in the industry, was the equal of the industry ,Worldwide factory sales of television receivers (mono- giantsRCA and Philipswith about $1 ballot' sales chrome and color) totaled $6 billion in 1969, with the in consumer electronics. Moreover, the Japanesewere 4. United States and Japan sharing over three-fourths of now taking' the lead in technology; in 1968 and 1969 those revenues equally. Because color television was an two of the most significant technological innovations in Aerican innovation, pioneered by RCA, one might color television emerged from Japan: Sony's Trinitron have expected that the main consequence of its spectac- picture the and Hitachi's all solid-state color receiver. ular,growth would be to cement the position of Amencan With this -foundation, the Japanese were prepared In firms as lea ers in the world's television manufacturing 1970 to take on a new challenge, pioneering in tech- industry. But the Japanese firms in this industry had nology Tor the next major new product in home elec- alreaoly pulled even with the U.S. in totaloutputat tronics, The home videoplayer. about $2.3 billion in television ,setsandwere well on the way to establishing the dominant positio% they now hold: Japaneseoprms accomplished this feat in the 1960s CONSUMER VIDEOCASSETTE RECORDERS by absorbing, then extending foreign technologies; de- The videixassette recorder is an innovation of the 1970s. veloping skilled labor force and advanced Manufac- To unddstand how it came about, however, we must turing techniques; exploiting their robust domestic mar- again return to the 1950s. VideorecOrding, like the tran- ket; and adopting expoft- oriented strategies. sistor and color television,,was'an Ametican innovation. .The industry's technological leaders iq the 1950s and The first practical videotape recorder, which brought im- 1960s had been RCA and N.V. Philips. RCA shared its portant changes in tele.vision broadcasting, was intro- color television technology, under license, as it did all duced by Ampex Corporation in 1956. The machine, its technical'achievements, with firms around the globe. called the Quadruplex (or Quad),9 generated worldwide This policy generated significant income over the years sales and set the standard for broadcasting use for two for RCA, but it also facilitated foreign entry into the decades. Although RCA began producing videotape field. N.V. Philips concluded art important amement machines in 1959, Ampex continued tb dominate the with Matsushita in 1952,.giving the Japanese firm access broadcasting markets, and .to maintain technological to technology in semiconductors, picture tubes, and other leadership in the Quad family of machines. , 33 412 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK 4 In Japan, engineers of more than half a dozen elec- turerslaunched aggressive efforts to develop helical Matsushita. tronics manufacturers called regularlyatthe studios of video recording. technology. Sony and NHK, the national television network, to examine the among the first to succeed inmarketing a consumer prod- whose goal. Ampex Quad and porever its equipmentmaiivafs,'con- uct, we ri consumer electronics-companies design ferring among themselves and with the NHK engineers. from the)very beginning, had been to achieve a th3iigh they sold Officials Of the MiLystry of International Tradeand In- suitable for; the home marketeven labs, vestment (MITI) encouraged this interest,giving a small-their first products in other markets. In Matsushita's engineer wrotd a paper recom- grant to at least one firm td developvideotape technol- as early as 1959. an mending development targeted toward a consumer mar- ogy. Sony, out of its own funds,immediately mobilized same purpose. Dr. N. Kihara, who had ket, complete with a technical analysis showing thefea- a team for- the levels of experimented with video recording earlier in the1950s, sibility, in principle, of achieving adequate Ki- r headed the team, under the diriction of K. Iwama(later performance and 'efficiency. Even earlier, at Sony, machinewith president of Sony). *- hara's team first replicated the Quad The Quadruplex machine was .a massive, complex, knowledge gleaned from the Ampex model, but witpout They and expensive machine filling a large console and two aid from Ampex engineersin just a few months. guided by a equipment racks. In its monochrome version. it sold for then set to work on the /helical forniat. $50,000. The complexity was fretessary to produce a mandate from the company's founder and chief execu- machine signal that met the stringent requirements of broadcast tive. M. Ibuka. who challenged them td build a that would cost 1 percent as much as the Quad andcould use. As early as' 1955, however.6nipex engineers had experimented with an alternative approach. later calked be sold to consumers. dra- helical recording (because early designs wrappedthe tape Technical progress. viewed in retrospect. was around the rotating cylinder along a helical path). Al- matic. as Table 3 indicates. The firstSaproduct. in one-fifth the price though the helical recorders alsowed a rotating head, 1963. was one-twentieth the size and marketa they were muck, simpler to make and use than the'Quatl 9f the Ampex Quad. By 1965 Sony could costly machines. Early helicals produced pictures that were machine that used a half-inch tape (versus the more price that net adequate in quality for the general public, but utterly two-inch tape ofthe Quad) and sold at the inadequate for the only customers then interested in video Ibuka's goal:I percent (in constant dollars) of the origi- comparable design, recordingthe brow casters. nal Quad machine. Matsushita had a The Ampex developments in helical technology re- and both were shown at the U.S.ConsumerElectronics its intent mained secret until 1962, but a Japanese firm. Toshiba, Show in 1965, prompting Ampex to proc.laim shocked the industry in 1959 by announcing its patent to market a consumer modelthe next year. for a videotape recorder using' a helical format. It was Despite the fanfare, the videotape recorder of 1965 consumer.prodUct.. It was still clear to engineer's that machines built on the helicalde- was still far from being a already under sign could be made smaller and cheaper, and wouldthus monochrome when the shift to color was way. It required manual threadingof the tape when ex- be suitable for many uses outside of broadcasting. Not of so clear, however, was which path tofollow in devel- perienk with the litho cassette had proved that ease demand. And oping the technology, how to develop new marketsfor loading made a big difference in consumer expensive re- the resulting products, and how good a'business itwould still used prodigious amounts of very than be once prod'Ucts _and markets were developed. cording tapeeven if eight times more efficiently During the 1960s, firms in the unitedSiates, Japan, the Quad format. 1970, the first- and Europe participated in the'technical andcomniercial Then came the videocassette. By . developed by 'development of helical recording. Outside Japan the generation helical cassette' machines, in Japan, leaders were Philips, which dominated European profes- Philips in Europe and by several companies A worldwide public re- sional and broadcasting markets for video recorders, and were ready for demonstration. Ampex, which extended its broadcast leadership in the lations carnival ensued as the press decided that the age arrived. But they United States with a line of professional and industrial of cartridge television in the home had units. But neither Philips nor Amp-ex was focusing on were wrong. Althoughthe technical base was there, it the first consumer product at tifitime. Ampexhad always bten would take- until 1975 to develop and market the oriented toward broadcast and professional markets,with successful consumer videoplayer. Meanwhile, in sought to consumer products only a minor part ofits business, and early 1970s, RCA, Avco, Ampex, and others Sanyo, Philips's consumer divisions Were not involved in video introduce consumer cassette recorders and failed; only com- recording at all. None of the leadi.ng-American consumer Toshiba, and Matsushita did the same. The destined electronics firms invested significantly in video recording mercially successful products at this stage were for professional and indystrial use. These werethe Phil- until aftei 1970. in Europe, and .In Japan, b' contrast, eight or-more companiesin- ips videocassette recorder, dominant for the now nilVie. leading consumer electronics manufac- Sony's U-Matic, which set the standard 34 1: r 'Innovation in Industry413 Table 3Milestones in VTR Product Development
Date Tape Price of Commercial Tape Unlizano (in constant Market Model Company Introduction Width* (sq. ft7t our) 1967 $) ,1 Broadcast VR-1000 Ampex 1956 747 $60,000
Profesional VR-1500 Ampex 1962%* 375 12.000 Industrial PV-I00 Sony 1962 212 13.000 Industnat/ 4 , Professional vs: EL:3400 Philips 1964 1' .3,500 Industnal/ Professional CV-2000 Sony 1965 1/2" 600 Industnal/ Professional N1500 Philips 1972 1/2" 70 1.150 Industnal/ Professional U-Matic Sony 1972 3/4" 70 1.100
Consumer Betamax Sony 1975 1/2" 20 850 Consumer VHS JVC 1976 1/2" 1 6r 790 Consumer VR-2020 Philips 1980 It" -6 520
'From I972 onward all models used cassettes Instead of open reels and all used highenergy tape Source Author,
tibiquiltus three-quarter inch "U- format''adopted by have no simple answers. Any, answers proposed at this MatS`ushita and Japan Victor. point are open so challenge. Despite the recency of events A In the Sony lab, Kihara and his associates took the and the incompleteness of the record, we offer our,inter- next logical step beyond the U-Matic and produced the pretation as a working hypothesis. now legendary Betamax, which was ready for commer- One key to understanding any innovation-is to look
cialization by early 1974 and on the Japanese'apanese 'market in at the technology. Whereas Ampex's long dominance 0. mid-1975. By eliminating the guard band between re-,.of the broadcasting market was won by a single brilliant cordingtracks and exploiting the limits of technology development produced by a small team in a few years, in both heads and tapes, Sony designers reduced the' the home videocassette recorder was developed step-by- amount of tape needed to record an hour of program by step ov r twenty years, interactively, by nearly a dozen 70 percent. Less tape permitted a smaller, less expensive compani worldwide. Various technical advances had cassette, which in turn permitted a smaller recorder. to be c mbined to proddce the necessary features and Within twoyears, engineers at Japan Victor, adopting level a§performance for the consumer marketadvances some of Sony's innovations and adding variations of in magnetic materials for recording tape and_recording thei3 own, had perfected an alternative design. Termed heads, &nd in micro-electronic circuitry,, coupled: with S (Video Home System), it was adorlted by Japan imaginative desigii-of tape formats, tape-handlingsys- Victor's pfent firm, Matsushita, and now shares the tems, and video ciPcuil,design. The engineers at Sony, bulk Of the world market with Sony's Beta format.'° Japan Victor, an4, Matsushita contribu d important in- Matsushita announced ,the production of their two mil- ventions, but their BetaPand VHS machines also contain lionth VHS' machine in late 1980; Sony's sales of Be- many elements invented by Ampex, Philips, and To- tamax machines reached '750,000 units in 1980 alone. shiba, whose Success in tfie videocassette recorder busi- The sole competitor to these products is an innovative ness is much more limited. Philips design, called the VR-2020, which is also pro- The successful firms in home video, then, are not duced bier license by Grundig in Europe. -Volume distinguished from the rest by inventiveness. No single manufacturing operations for the Philips VCRs were techrical advalice unlocked the door to engineering and . starting up in 1980. 0Market success. The succeul firms are those whose engineering efforts integral the technologies for the home xideocassette record. Several conclusions emerge THE INGREDIENTS OF SUCCESS from a review of den. efforts. What were the main ingredients of success in the video- First, in view of the large number of Japanese firms cassette recorder innovation? Why did the American con- competing todevelop video recording technology, it is sumer electronics 'industry fail totally to egtablish a not surprising that the VCR innovators were Japanese. manufacturing poSition in this field? These questions In the early 1960s, substantial development effortsex- .. a. 414 AAAS POLICY04100K videocassette isted at Toshiba. Matsushita, Sony, Japan Victor,Sanyo, of 1,200 employees to produce a home three cur- Ikegami, Akai, Shibaden., and perhaps others. Qutside recorder. That failed utterly in the market. The of Japan, only Ampex and Philips appear tohave rent leaders seem to have been able tomaintain a strategic mounted comparable development efforts at thattime. commitment that kept development going in the face of that of While the Japanese electronics. firms were'developing disappointment and failure, a strategy similar to which video technology, they were also investing in their manu- the more publicized Japanese automotive industry, first facturing systems, hurturink employee relations, effec- had persisted despite initial failures with products tively engaging the skills of employees at all levels. introduced-in the U.S. market. They remained committed introducing innovative manufacturing processes,, and to small cars, gradually improvingproduct perfarnance, consumers. These emphasizing quality and productivity throughout. They quality, and attractiveness to U.S. did so with a view not only to currentrequirementsNut improvements. combined with loci-eased productivity. to constant improvement for thefuture, Such steps en- have given Nissan, T.oyota, and Honda a quality and abled the major Japanese companies to develop produc- production position superior to-that of U S automotive ^ tioncapabilities superior to those of most American and manufacturers. rhe home videocassette European, firms. The successful innovators in Furthermore, many of these Japanese firms(and' es- recorder turned out to be, then, consumer electronics pecially the three ultimate leaders) were specialists in companies that had long pursued a global "high tech- consumer products. In contrast.Ampei focused on gov- nology'::-strategy Their managements foresaw consumer applications Of video recording 13' years before the mar-, ernment and broadcast markets, andPhilips was highly diversified. (See Table 4.) Development efforts atSony. ket could actually be^tapped. and persisted in their com- when pre- Matsushita; and. Japan Victor began with a consumer mitment to develop the basic technoldgy even prodiict as an ultimate Awl. In Sony's case thegoal Maturely commercialized consumer products failed in force, and included a clear definition; of a target cost, *posing an the market. They had a highly. skilled labor important economic discipline on developmAt. ifivested significantly in advanced manufacturing proc- Finally, there was the element of persistence. All of esses. And -they were quick to respond tothe success of the particiwnts in development of the technology tried others. in- to comme?c\alize a consumerproduct prematurely and In contrast; the Americ n consumer electronics failed: The Betamax was in faCt the fourth videorecorder dustry in the late 1950s a.throughout the '1960s' was :6 I generation qemonvrated by Sony as a "consumer:' prod- held captive by adifferent ideology. Managements re- uct. In 1973, Matsushita gearod up an entiredepartment sponded to the 1950s market saturation, and shake-out by cutting costs. One technical manager saidthat the .standing orders from the television division were to offer them "any new technology available, as'Sing as. it gets Table4Strategies of Major Consumer Electronics Prodners 1969 cost out of the product. Produci differentiation was Total sought in advertising "images," kd in suchattributes Consumer Home Sales ,as styling, rather than inpgformance. (Million) Electronics Appliances Subtotal Company Furthermore, the 'Argerican .industry never developed Consumer markets abroad. A senior Zenith executive (later to be- Electronics ,. comethe'company's chief executive officer), told a Har- Specialists yard ilusiness School casewriter in early 1972'that Zenith. S 677 90% 909°% "we've always had our hands full with U.S.demand JVC 300 inniill 90 Sony 300 - 80* nil 80* and we've alWaSts tended to stick with the biggest payoff - and what we knew how to dobest. For example; an Consumer additional two 'Market share points in the Los Angeles Electronics and Appliance area alone represents more salesvolume than thereisin Specialists most foreign markets."" . Sanyo $ 500 47% 37 % , .84% American managers tended'to rely on market research 25* 75* Matsushita 2,100 50* and "object?ve". analysis to identify latent'market op- Diversified portunities, whereas firms like Sony took risks on novel Majqrs example, ?.38%* products and set out to develop the market. For Philips S3,600 28% 10%* turned . RCA 3.200 33* nil 33* .in 1955 G.E. Shad attemptq, prematurely as it GE 8,445 5* N.A. <20*" out, to develop the second-setmarket in the United States Hitachi 2,300 20* --/28 <50* with a small-screen monochrometelevi;ion. In June Toshiba 2,200 20* 20* 41 19601a month before Sony unveiled its microtelevision - 'Authors' apprommauons ,.. G.E. Management returned to the idea and commissioned Sources Company annualreports.SEC filings. Japan Company Directory 1972 (The Oriental , market research which mock-ups of sets of eight dd- Economn) ../ e
7 4
Innovation in IndustrY `415
ferent screen sizes, weights, and prices were shown to unique manufacturing techniques that Tight havegiven interviewees. The study concluded that "people donot them a cost, quality, or performance edge. place a high value on portability of the television set." Sony, Matsushita and JVC, _unlike most of their Throughout thet196fis, while firms like, Zenith, G.E. American and -European competitors, were able to ith- and RCA treated consumer electronics as a mature busi- es plement their technological strategies through a distinct ness with few opportunities for technological leadership. tive organizational system. Technical and commercial Sony, Matsushita, and JVC, did the opposite. In radio staffs at Sony and Matsushita appear to work 'together and then in mohochrome and color television,they effectively, to share information, and n? understandcom- sought to apply advancedtechnology to enhance product mon goals. Top-level executives, including the chief value to the consumer. Even when domestic demandwas executive officers, maintpined the close contact with the brisk, they began to build positions in export markets, persons developing the new technology th ade it pos- starting with the largest (the United States) and aiming sible for their firms to respond rapi to developments at a niche overlooked by the U.S. industry. After initial in a constantly changing field. In contrast, the long- success, they broadened their lines and deepened established U.S. firms had to contend with organizational penetration. barriers between technical staffs and operating busi- ,Their consistent adherence to a high techndlogy strat- nesses; as illustrated by the transistor radio ample egy enabled Sony, Matsushita, and JVC to take the lead' above. Their top managers were preoccupied w th other in the videocassette recorder mass consumer market. The priorities and did not involve themselves deeply VCR technological advantage gained through this strategywas technical or marketing issues. Nor did s an- an important ingredient of their success. For example, agement; a hint of the significance of these internal fac- although U.S firms designed and built the first miniature tors can be seen in their response to the Betamax inven- all- transistoI radios in the 1950s, Sony developed the tion. Philips employs a complex and sophisticated first product to be successful in the mass market. By organizational structure and resource tallocation system capturing the major share of world markets for small to manage its multiple businessesnm many countries radios, Sony and other Japanese producers gained the around the world. While offering many advantages in leaddin experience with consumer applications of the other respects, that complex organization may have been transistor. Adapting the transistor to other audio, and a real handicap in .this innovation. VHS, the Japanese later, video products, ithese firms extended their lead. alternative to Betamax, reached the market only 18 Similar. aggressive strategies in another market segment, months after Sony, it took Philips more than five years audio tape recorderwprovided the basis for advantage to produce their response, the innovative System 2020. in another important technology, ferrite recording heads. Although the innovative success of Sony, Matsushita, Although the largest American firms in the industry, and JVC can be attributed primarily to their strategies such as G.E. and RCA, also had major technical re- and organizational methods, they also, ,benefited from sources, they were unable,to bring them to bear on con- their location in Japan. In all of their consumer elec- sumer market opportunities. Some of the barriers limiting tronics businesses they served a large protected domestic their effectiveness in using new technology were orga- market that provided the basic "bread and butter' for nizational. For exdnple, one of the earliest designs for cash flow and growth. Furthermore, that market was not an all-transistor miniature portable radio was developed fragmented; the leading firms ,had large shares, givitg in the mid-fifties in the corporate lab ofone of the giant them a significant scale of operations. The U.S. manu- American companies. The link to the company's own facturers also had a large, concentrated domestic market, radio business was never forged and the circuit was li- but they lacked two things the Japanese had from the censee to a Japanese producer who incorporated itinto startaccess to an even Larger 1foreign market, and pro- products sold successfully in the United States. Later, tection against import competition.
the American firm's radio business, in an attempt to The human resource bise in Japan may also have, catch up, madea photocopy of the Japanese circuit board provided an advantage. Sony and others could draw on as the basis for their own design, only to learn that they an educated, motivated, and stable work force and thus were copying their own lab's invention. Moreover, the capitalize on skillsbuilt up within their companies low _priority given by the principal U.S. firms to tech- through the custom of lifetime employment. Because of nology for consumer electronics limited their ability to a unique ,manufacturing style that integrated effective, create the technological base necessary to compete in the if not entirely original, methods of labor management manufacture of videocassette recorders. with Japanese cultural traits, the Japanese developed Nor did U.S. firms develop production capabilities quality and productivity levels that exceeded U.S. ca- competitive in either efficiency or quality; instead they pabilities b' as much asstwO to one. moved their manufacturing facilities to low-cost labor Finally, certain batic cultural factors are evident in areas like Taiwan or Hong Kong, or purchased foreign Japan's national industrial _ideolegy, which is oriented .products. They also failed in most cases to develop the toward improved quality and efficiency, toward world-
-'r 416 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK address latent wide marketing, and toward evaluation of performance market by introducing technologies that -about its in- on th6 basis oflong -term ratherthan short-term results-. need, significant efforts to educate users herent lksibilities have usually been made.The suc- In the context of these underlying management assump- this point; tions, the Japanese iapproach to consumerelectronics' cessful .videocassette -innovators illustrate Sony's brilliant initial advertising of the Betamax as a seems almost inevitableIn terms of the American as- sumptions, it makes little sensewhichbrings us back "time shift" machine is,a classic example. to our main point: at the-core of theproblem of American The point is not that'product development strategies than ex- competitiveness age the attitudes and practicespf Amer- should always be geared toward latent rather pressed consumer needs, but that managenientattitudes ican managers. and practices geared to the quantifiable and provable, thOere and now, risk the loss of suchopportumties,,to use technology to gain competitiveadvantage. MANAGERIAL ATTITUDES AND PRACTICES The conventional wisdom about so-called"mature In recent years, the managers of U.S. industry have indusites" entails a, similar risk"of 'Missed opportunities offer increasingly preferred to make chqices based on abstract for use of new technology. Mature markets may analysis, of seemingly objective considerations rather little objective evidence of readiness to acceptinnovative competing than on the insights and judgment of persons seasoned products, and it is common wisdom for firms in a business. Concern for near-termfinancial perform- in them to,direct their main efforts to advertising, pro- products ance often outweighs long-termconsiderations. To- moting, or reducing the prices of established opportunities gether, these tendencies produce strategic behavior thitt Yet attention to customer needs can reveal differentiate is largely reactive. Confrontedwith effective foreign for rewarding investments in technology to competitors, pursuing proactive strategies, American Products in performance terms The assumption that competitive prioritiesshould firms seem to be losing ground., Not all U.S. firms can be charactenzed this way, of change systematically alOng the lifecycle' of a produe4--- Ttie potential. course. IBM and Texas Instruments,for example, are -is valid, but should not be followed blindly. and proc- firms led by managers who combine long-term perspec- value of-technological advances in products tive with deep knowledge of current operations."But esses does not decrease simplybecause known customer in the tele- these are exceptions to the rule. needs have been met: While U.S. managers visionindustry were focusing on voluine expansion and . It is conventional wisdom that the, "push" of new technology yields the greatest rewards when guided by cost reduction when growth leveledoff, Japanese firms needs and the "pull", of the market. But the paradox of thisfor-' like Sony continued to study,,latent .consumer mutation is That the market's "invisible hand" is ex- to introduce!major pre ductimprovements. Management in the life pressed through transactions that are possible only after approaches that operate according to stages if they dis- the technology. is developed. Hence the rise,ieChan- cycle create -major' competitive handicaps underlying cus- dices apt phrase, of the "visible hand" 41 the modern courage continuing innovation to meet corporation, to guide, the develtpment of technology in tomer needs. favor analytic anticipation of market rewards. -,The biases in management concepts that rather In man, American firms, the methods used to do that rather than experiential evidence and short-term parallel tend- job seem,Xo have gotten out of balance, as inappropriate than long -term results are reinforced by Three use of common marketing conceptsthwarts the incor- ,encies in today's systems of financial control. increasing poration of new technology into innovative products. As trends have shaped current U.S. practice: (1) illustrated by the contrasting experiences of G.E. and diversification of die businesses engaged in by a single operations to Sony with small-screen television, the needs expressed firm; (2) consequent decentralization of reinforced by (3) the in the market tend to reinforce the status quobecause semi - autonomous "prOfit centers"; standard market surveys measure what the customer emergence of "scientific" theoriesof corporate finance. has led knows he or she wants now. The initial market estimates Since the 1950s, a penchant for diversification for computers, xerographic copiers, the Land camera, U.S. firms farther away from their coretechnologies and Japan.' and other major innovations, for example, fellshort by markets than it has their counterparts in Europe or havelrinor- factors of thousands. Successful innovators lookbeyond Managers in the United States appear to which expressed needs and leadthe market through technolog- dinate faith in the portfolio law of large numbers, technologies, icalty innovative products that meet latent needs.,Eormal holds that to amass enough product lines, random setbacks marlit analysis is often useful, but should notdominate and businesses, is to cushion against the of stofks and resource allocations to product developinent. of life: This may be true for portfolios The very phrase "technology push"" may tend to bonds, where considerable evidence showsthat setbacks tilifect to-both random- overstate technology's role.in the successfulintroductioli are random, butbusinessesaie by competi- of radical innovations. When an innovation capturesthe setbacks and carefully orchestrated attacks' 38 .4.
Innovotwn in Industry417
tors Thomas JPeters, of MLkinsey and Company, in during similar products. Nut only Lan investing in the 1 discussing ten well-managed and suLLessful U S. Lom- develop.ment of process teLhnology make produLts more panies, nixes.- that all ar© exceptions to this tendency. profitable. when it yields a proprietary, proLess itan each, he s4ys.is a hands-on operator. not a holding serve as a formidable competitive weapon Indeed. the company or a Longlomerate Moreaer, he argues. barrier to entry intoiaoLassette recorder manufaLture 'these compamecThave achieved unusual suLcess by byU.S. firms is their Lick of processkim-hok The sticking to what each knows best,'' resisting the te4- product teLhnology is open to all, the real Lret lies in . Cation to move into new businesses that look attractive the Japanese factories, but require corporate skills they do nOt have.'`. In sum. we find that certain 'modern strategic con- The more general trend toward diversification hasrein- cepts, %nal), ticniethOVIs. and organizational practices forced and been reinforced by appliLation of modem discourage thrkind of long-term perspective and risk theOnes of financial portfolio management These prin- taking necessary to sustain a high level of technological ciples have increasingly been applied to the creation and innovation. We may Wunder why the negative Lome- management of corporate tionfolios, or clusters of Loin= quences of these attitudes and practices have become panics and product lines assembled through various evident only in recent years A confluence of'trends at modes of diversification under a single Lorporate um- work Over several decades has resulted. we behei'e in brella When applied by a remote group of dispassiOnate a signiliLant shift in balance. Paralleling the trends to- experts primarily LonLemed with finance -and Lontrql. ward Lorporate diversification. deLentralization, and use who LA hands-on experienLe, the mechaniLs of port- of new LonLepts of financial management is the growing folio analysis and related rosourLe allocation pushman- acceptance ofaeclair.] concept of the "suLLessful agers even further toward an extreme of caution. manager The top managers of highly diversified firms neLes- There is widespread belief in both the business Loin- sanly find themselves unable to relate their on expe- inunit), and academia in a LonLept of the professional riences to the vital issues of their operating businesses manager asa pseudo-professional' individual Since most of these firms use decentralized `organiza- with no special expertise in a,partiLular Indust') or,tech-
tional structures,. the manager of each profit center nologywho nelerthelesscan step into and suLLessitilly,, k Lan be held primarily accountable, for results. But how does run an unfamiliar Lompany through stria apphLation the top manager judge the operating manager's strategiL financial Lontrols, strategiL Loncepts; and market anal- expenditures if they are risky and unlikely to produLe ysis. Although we do nut believe thit Lompetitive near-term results? choices can be made without careful attention to basic Tendencies toward the near term.. and toward quan- marketing and financial issues. we ,fear that apparently tifiableresults, produce a situationin which many sophisticated analysis of these factors can mask a shallow American managersespecia4 in mature industries understanding of customers and a shortsighted view of are reluctant to invest heavily in the development of new financial objectives. Moreover. no matter hov; well these inanufactunng processes or creative work force poliLies. considerations are unde(stood, they are inadequate with- By ignoring the° competiti e advantage of the latter, as out a complementary understanding of the teLhnologiLal in ths, NOTES ARID REFERENCES which Amencan firms have had leading positions. But the application of the transistor to consumer products is a field in which Japanese firms I. This idea is developed in "Technological innovation in Firms and pioneered , , Industnes Are Assessment of the State of the Art." by Richard S 9. The name derives from the use of four magnetic recording heads. Rinenbloan, in P Kelly and M Kranzberg, eds. Technological In- located xi the edges of a rapidly rotating drum in contact with a tape noilatto'n A C ritital Review of Current Knowledge (San Francisco, San that moves laterally past the drum 1 , Francisco F:ress, 1978). 4 10. Jai can Victor is quick to point out that`the development of the. 2 The contnbutions of several colleagues who helped shape this VHS was aunched well before they became aware of the Betamax and paper are gratefully acknowledged. including the work of Karen J. was an independent invention Freeze in assisting in its development I I . Zenith Radio Corporation. Harvard Business School case study. N3. The contrasts_ noted fn this bxample should not, be extrapolated 9-674-095 to Japanese and Amencan Wdustry generally There is some evidehce 12. G E. subsequently introduced a model with 19 -inch screen at fo suggest that the particular Japanese firms examined here are not a low retail pnceInterestingly, the research had shown the ',;most 'typical of industry in Japan. - preferred" mock-up to be one with a 10-i;ch screen with 18-pound 4 Public Fly 96-480. . weight. pnced at $259 if transistonzed, or 5129 in a tub)versign,--not " 5. Robert H Hayes and William J Abernathy. "Managing Our Way unlike Sony's successful design Source General Electnc Radio and to Economic Decline," Harvard Business Reiielt vol 58 (July-August Television Division, Fiat-yard Business School case study, 9-513-082. -, ' 1980). 1967. 6 Thejudges included four chief executives of business. two pro- 13 An interesting charactenzation of irmenca's best-managed com- fessors (neither from Harvard), and one govemAint official The ed- panies is given by Thomas J. Petel-s in "Puttifik Excellence into Man- itors are unable to recall a previous case where the vote was unanimous. , agement," Business Week (21 July 1980). pp 146-205. Peters analyzes 7 Consumer electronics is a durable goods manufacttnng industry the inogredients'of successful management in 10 well-run. companies, - whose pnncipal pi-oducts.are?elevision receivers. radios. phonographs. including the two mentioned here. and audio and video tape'recorders. I. The shoncorinings of 'technology push" strategies in the public 8 For an interesting summary and interpretation, see George R. sector have also been noted. Abernathy and Chakravarthy argue. in White and Margaret B W Graham. "How to Spot a Technological "Government Intervention and Innovation in Industry. A Policy Frame- Winner." Harvard BuVness Review, vol 56 (March-Apnl 1978) The work." Sloan Management Review (Spring 1979), that government ,transistor, inventec143ell Laboratones in the U S.. was the invention attempts to Innovate through technology push alone have usually failed. that opened thetitiOr toL:the creation of the semicorujuctor,,indtistry in Complementary efforts at "technology pull" through intervention in, 4A..1 1 E 420AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK products and markets Wen to have been associated with most successful companies that emphasize promotion from within for example, IBM, cases 3M, Texas Instruments, or Citicorpare also well knOwn for risk 15. Peters. "Putting Excellence into Management taking and innovative success N. 16. See, Ex tuba VII in Hayes and Abernathy, "Managing Our Way 18. "Engineeringthe Neglected Ingredient." remarks at the Sci- to Economic Decline." ence Policy Seminar, The George Washington University, 9 December 17. Not all U.S. companies fit this description Some well-known 1980. 1 a I .." o. *. a. i ) - .., .. A s '.. C o .....,Is \ Decision-Making With ModemInformation j and Communications Technology: Opportunities and Constraints Donald J. Hillman* THE GROWTH OF INFORMATION AND The functional categories of importance are: COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY The growth of sophisticated information processing sys- information and data processing technologies; tems, accompanied by huge advances in telecommuni- word processing technologies; cations capabilities, constitutes an information revolu- communications technologies. tion which raises significant new issues for policy makers. This paper analyzes the historical and recent Informatidn and Data Processing developments in data processing and telecommunica- Informatiwi and data processing technologies are pri- tions, the impact these advances are having on society, marily associated with puters. Advances in compute and the associated policy issues whic14 need to be performance hair een spectacular, in. both the van y addressed. and number different applications. Adyiances inini- aturizati have reduced computing costs subst ially, the y expanding the number of users and larging HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE possible- applications. Two basic architt ral features of cojnputers are involved in this 41d progress. The A significant aspect of the growth .of- information and first of these is a hierarchy ofmemories-,Memoria range communications technologies is tharthe two technolo- from slow,_ high-capaCity peripl*ral -devices (such as , gies afe merging. To gain a better understanding of this magnetic tapes and disks) to fast, limited-capartral phenomenon, it may be helpful to examine three cate- memories (such as magnetic cores or semiconduct4s) gories which Comprise the information induAry; for it to high-speed registers. . is their interaction which forms the most powerful in- The second feature is the central processing unit, \ formation processing and communications systems. which contains the arithmetic/logic unit and a control unit. The arithmetic/logic unit 'manipulates the high- o 4 O Director. Center for InTormatton and Computer Scace. Celugh Unisersity, Bethlehem. speed registers according to logical operations. The con- .441"" . Pennsylvania. trol unit is responsible for examining the programmer's, 421 - 422 ' AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK instructions, and contrbIling the actions of the memories . The cost of computer main memory has been declining and the arithmetic/logic unit to perform the,nevssary 26 percent per year since 1965, and is expected to operations. Instructions and data are both "storedlti the continue to do. so through the 1980s. same memory. In the future are fundamental architectural There is now a full range of commercially available changes in computer design, whicr promise to increase storage technologies which permit access times as low performance significantly. as a billionth of a second fcrt the.small high -peed - storage used to process information. Tele no. logy Word Processing The new videodisks can store as many as ten billion t Word processing manipulates text without regard to bits of information on a disk the size of an Ordinary message or semantic content. Text-editing, while closely phonograph record., identified with word processing, is used to align'the The performance of central, processors has increased formats of large niultipage documents and reports, and at a rate of 35.percent per year since they first were to handle routine officecorrespondence. Word proc6ss- introduced (see Figure I), while cosi; have declined ing was applied initially ito manualoffice functions, and by about 20 percent per year (see Figure 2). it affected primarily secretarial and clerical workers. There is growing-evidence, howe,ver, that word roc- zio,000 essing is beginning to make an impact .on office opera- oU U tions in general, and that when liked with data proc- z essing, the combination will substantially alter future cc management styles. 0cc ccz KO Communications Technology -moo a. 17- .4 The telephone has been transformed from a signal trans- 0ccU port device into a message processor capable of confer- U ence calling, call forwarding, automatic dialing, auto- O p matic redialing of busy numbFrs, and last number 0.L. 100 redialing. Digital data network's have greatly increased access to online information retrieval systems,and fa- z cilitated the transmission of large amounts of information' CC between dispersed points. Facsimile transmissionis widespread. Optical fibers chn carry more siihultaneous% z I messages than conventional cable.:Cable television has 1965 19Z0 1975 1980 enormous potential for,home inf ation services, and YEAR videodisks and videocassette recordecould have a sub- Figure 1.Relative Computer Processor Performance stantial impact on education as well as me entertain- ment. The publishing industry is being changed by theC.Source Donald P Kenney. Microtomputers (New York Amacon Press. 1978) transmission of new and literature via telecOmmunica- tions apd broadcasting systems. Communications satel- Circuit density is increasing dramatically, particularly lites provide the means.for inexpepsive, reliable,. and in very, large-scale integrate& (VLSI) circuits. Inte... real time information transfer on a:global scale. grated circuits now contain 100,000 active compo- .- nents; some estimates place the number at 109 by 'RECENT DEVELOPMENTS I995.' It is the interactions amongst the functions of data proc- Word processing devices are acquiring communicas, .essing, word processing, and "communications that re- ions features which provide electronic mail functions flect the real potential for advancement. Traditional dis: as well as access to outside data-bases. .finctions between telephone utilities, newspaper and Data processing combined with word procesiing pro- book publishing, banking, and postal services are be- vides a variety of information handling, storage, and -coming blurred, and these blurred distinctions have gen- retrieval capabilities within one systetn. erated import,ant policy problems for bothgovernment The use of microprocessors in a number of office de- and private enterpnl. vicesfrom dictation equipment to photocopiers hi Part, the issues have arisen because the electronic has reduced equipment size and enhanced operations storage, manipulation, retrieval, and transmission ofin- significantly.' formation are available at costs competitive. with paper. In the last 15 years, channel capacity of a single com- Several key examples illustrate the rapid development munications satellite has'increased by a factor of 50, that has occurred in, information technology in recent and the cost per circuit year has decreased by a factor years: e t O of 45.2 I Information Technology423 1.0 The revolution has brought us, to the dawn of a so- called Information Age, whose implications for society are both disturbing and exciting. 00cc z ,-= c.) c.) z LL Q.1 a. THE RISE OF THE INFORMATION AGE 0?cc(.5 IT iv The role of information 'has increased with the growth U0 of the new technology. The information industry is now CCs, o. a. the most rapidly increasing segment of the economy. 111 111 > 0.01 4 The uses of information technology in all aspects of out 4 lives have accelerated to the point 'where the 1980s can, 1.0 tij 111 CS 11 be called the Information Age. In recent years policy- makers have turned ogre. attention to issues related to information. Yet, .despite the findings of numerous re- 4 0.001 ports and studies, substantial issues remain unresolved. In 1977; Porat3 estimated that about 46 percent of the U.S. workforce was employed in the information in- dustry. This means that more people in the United States Figure 2 Relative Computer\Processor Price are employed in manipulating information than in manu- Source Donald p Kenney. Microcomputers (New York Amason Press. 1978) facturing products, providing services, or growing food. The Information Age is thus.an "era in which the ex- Packet-switching has become an alternative to time- change of information will be as critical a funttion of division and circuit-switched networks. economic organization as the production of goods."4 Some new services combine satellite, 'microwave, and One consequence of this transformation is that infor- cable technologies for long-distance voice, data, and mation is now being valued as a critical resource in the video transmission. same sense as is labor or capital. Information is different in that it consorves other resources through better deci- sions,s and it often is enhanced rather than depleted IMPACT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY through use. Attempts have been made to treat infor- The implications Of these new tools are significant., mation as a utility, and to describe mechanisms for reg- Within the office, traditional operations are being altered ulating it.6 Another approach treats' information as a as mid-level managers-and technicians employ minicom- mixture of purely public and private goods, with price puters to monitor work routines. Writers and editors en- reflecting an allocation mechanism rather than a cost- hancd their efficiency through the direct entry of data to lecovery device.' Commorf to all of these approiches is word processors. Portable terminals enable employees the goal of raising private and public productivity to work from their homes. Line Managers can receive . through improved information handling methods. timely information from' a variety of distant sources, The emergence of information as 4 tangible resource thereby improving the decision-making process. In some has stimulated a vigorous debate concerning its devel- cases, the choice of technologiesfor example, large opment. Do we need a national policy to manage our central processing unit versus distributed minicompu: information resources? Is it possible to have a single terswill -substantially affect the way§ an enterprise national policy when information transcends so many functions. activities and areas of government? While die recognition New information handling methods are affecting the of the information economy is relatively recent, these commercial world in .a number of ways, as in electronic questions have stirred debate in the Unitld States for banking and consumer purchasing via remote terminals. more than twenty years.\ Multinational corporations operate more efficiently in the Numerous reports have addressed the issue of scien- international marketplace.through the use of communi- tific and technical information collection and dissemi- cations technology linked to information processing. nation. Beginning with the so-called "Balcer Report,"8 Comptyet: technology is entering the home as well. which recommended the 1958 formation, of the Office Microprocessors imbedded in a variety of devices control of Science Information Service withinithe National Sci= temperatures on the oven. Innovative broadcast- ence Foundation, the role of information in research and ing and on-line services provide new forms of entertain- development began to assume a more prominent position ment. Many home 'computers enable a user to balance in the context of urgent national: goals. In 1963 the re- a checkbook, play video games, or take advantage Of ports of Wiesner9 andWeinbere promulgated the view home education. that government, was responsible for disseminating re-. ti 424 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK, search results, and tor maintaining an adequate com= that responsibility for the formulation of communications munications system to promote the commercial appli- and information policy be centralized either in a specific cationsof those results. Another influential report, the department intheExecutive Office of the President. report of the ,Committee on Scientific and Technical althoughoth1s contend that improved coordination ef- Communication tSATCOM)." recommended the partici- forts, together with a recognition.that. information issues pation of private organiz4tions in the nation's informa- play, a large part in national policies, are sufficient to tion programs, and suggested government support for rationalize the dejisia-making process scientific and technical societies. / Both the prilte and the public sectors are deeply lb 1972, the Greenberger Report "" expounded a involved in geherating and using information to manage global view of got ernment responsibilities for infor- a society that is increasingly dependent on problem- mation dissemination in research, education, and private solving knowledge for a wide diversity of purposes and sector activities. Very much in the spirit of the times, needs. Clearly. we need to focus more'attention on:en- the report championed the.go/erriment's role in,ensuring sunng cooperation both within the government andhe- that the country's information-resources were fully un- tween the- public and private sectors This issue must be lizeddor the public good. The report also recognized that treated as a high priority question as the nation and the c:entralization of the effort was not a necessity. and that world grow increasingly dependent on the availability the various public and private organizations engaged in of information to prUN Cde answers to national a'nd inter- producing and disseminating information were perform- national problems ink adequately. if not optimally Much progress has been made toward the goal ex- pressed in these reports the creation of a communication POLICY QUESTIONS OF THE system 'for` the free flow of scientific and technical in- INFORMATION AGE formati ..Many observers nevertheless believe that The information age has been evolving over a period of these orall objectives have not yet been reached, Mrtly at least twenty years. as an economy based onindustrial because e constituency of users varies significantly. as production adapts to one based on the transfer of infor- scientific d technical information concerns merge with mation. The sheer speed of change is as significant as broader info ation policy questions. Throughout recent The new issues created by the years. therefore, there has been a steady trend toward . the changes themselves. \new technology affect all segments of society. and in- broadening the scope 'of policymaking for information. clude a broad range of problems. ranging from produc- as sea in the fdrmation of the U.S. National Commis- tivity to privacy to control of information production and sion on Libraries and Information Science (1975). the U.S. Domestic Council. Committee on the Rightto Pri- manpower requirements. vacy (1976), and the U S. Commission on Federal Pa- STRUCTURE OF THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND perwork (977). INFORMATION INDUSTRIES Despite these efforts, the tensions continue amongst various players in the federal government. and between Telecommdnications and data processing are merging as the public and private sectors. The. .absence of clear a result of the evolution of both technologies°and the guidilines and policies regarding information is keenly pressures caused by economic change. The blendingof. felt. It can bed argued, for example, that the government 'these two economic sectors into the critical component should ensure,the widespread dissemination of socially of the information industry is equally dependent on the useful information at the lowest possible cost, on the *ability of the technology to support this'merger and the other hand, some say that the private sector has the more economicand sometimes socialiiressures for it efficient means for doing this. The issue ()hen centers The healt of the telecommunications netwolt is now on the definition of unfair competition,especially with a computeran electronic switch. At the same time,the respect' to the go,\vernment's funding ofinformation*, usefulness of data Processing facilities and services is services. a function of their accessibilitythrough the telecom- A major reason for the conflict in the development of munications net. The growth markets for telecommuni- information policies is the absence of a suitable mech- cations and data pr)oces;ing exist in merged services such anism for resolvingthe issues..No distinct roles for the as electronic message systems,electronic funds trans- public and private sectors haue emerged; and there is tto fers, and othel/transaction-oriented offerings. Telecommunications and data processing borrow tech- agreement on planning, and leadership. The decision- . makuig process within the federal government conCern- niques op each other to increase thecapacity and ,ing these questions is accordingly fragtriented and dis- availdbility, Of existing services Complementing these organized. In response to this situation, there have been needs, 'however, are pressures for new services which many proposals for new national structurestoipian and could bring about increased efficiency and effectivene.ss coordinate information activities. Some have suggested This second set Of motivations is now the primary engine c Information Technology'425 of change While the reasons for viewing telecommuni- 'user's interests, eliminate the need td sift through endless cations and data processing separately appear tO be fad- computer printouts or printed documents. There is little ing, it is not clear that the two industries will be treated doubt that as new techniques for data entry emerge as one in policy and legal termsat least for the fore- such as direct voice to .computerthe amount of data seeable futureUnresolved policy choices concern reg,- gathered in computer-readable form will continue to in- ulation, competition, and the assured delivery of services. crease at a dramatic rate. It is hoped that the technology Regulatory strategy and requirements for the telecom- can also prOvicle the techniques to organize and display mbnications industry are relaxing. but transmission ser- information more effectively so that informed decision Nices will remain regulated to a considerable degree, due makingwill be enhanced rather than diminished. to several factors. First, the industry is dominated by a . corporation of unparalleled sizea circumstance which. PRIVACY will not change quickly. Second, the technology employs an increasingly valuable and scarce resource, that is, the The Federal Privacy Protection Commission carefully electromagnetic spectrum. Third, the industry must op- emphasized in its 1977 repop that information privacy erate in conformity with certain. pbwerful social and po- involves more than the traditional concepts of confiden- litical policies, such as requirements for the universal tiality imply Personal privacy in this information society availability of service. calls, for fair practices, in maintaining and using infor- A vanety of other services will, however, be at least mation, as well as restiictiOns on hOw yganizations col- partly deregu,ated, as a result of Federal Communica- lect information The driving force behind the concern tions Commission decisions, congressional legislation. for privacy,is a desire to,pcotect not only the information and state public utility commission actions This process about human beings, but also their autonomy and indi- will affect the so-called "enhanced" telecommunica- viduality. Contributing to this ssivtion is the drastic tions services, for example, and more participants will reduction in costs for storing informatiOn in computers. ' be able to enter the market. The challenge for policy- As offices becomelighly automatgd, electronic mail and makers will be to ensure that the transition is as fair and message systems increase, anj Rgrsonal computers pro- minimally disruptive as possible, and to support contin- liferate, the potential for abusing the confidentiality of ued technological advancement, rather than restnct it information grows. 'Issues 'of personal privacy 'elect through burdensome regulations. Critical choices will another area where policymakers must address the ade- emerge at the points where three distinct portions of the quacy of existing legal: and institutional frameworks to market meet: the regulated data processing and infor- cope with rapid technological advances. mation industries, the newly deregulated enhanced com- munications services, and the les; (but still dinsiderably) INFORMATION RESOURCE MANAGEMENT regulated transmission services. A key question will be that of how to draw the regulatory line between basic There is a growing awareness that information transferl transmission services and enhanced offerings. activities play a critical role in the effective-internal management of both public and private sector organi- zations. As a result,, information is increasingly viewed INFORMATION OVERLOAD as an important resource to be.carefully developed and_ In the past, the information explosion was largely paper- utilized. In the UnitedStates nq central authority controls onented, today, the new technologyis creating huge the establishment or maintenance of iniormation systems, quantities of computer-readable material. The sheer on a national basis. Recetit effOrts have been made, how- amount of computer-readable data compounds the tra- der, to coordinate-government paperWofk activities to ditional problem 'of sifting useful information from a reduce redundant collection and to increase the base of matebal which is uneven in quality. Reductions sharing of information. in the cost of storing, processing,Cand retrieving infor- Attention paid to this issue in recent years has grown mation have only added to this dilemma. The result is as the number of databases increases (for example; there that decision-makers are often faced with the increasingly were 528 computer,readable, publicly available:lfiblio- difficult task of selecting critical information from moun- graphic databases in 1979"), the vang,7 of vendors of- tains of_data. fering information services ,expands, did the methods A case can be made that technology can .rationalize for transferring information`proliferate...this situation' the information transfer process, thereby easing infor- calls for effective coordination and, management of all mation overload, On-line searching, for example, pro- asp,ects of information gathering, processing, and dis- :ides improved methods for sorting and selectip needed semination activities within an organization to ensure infprmation from large amounts of data. Systems using optimal use of data resources. . computer-based selective dissemination of information, This changing environment raises a number of policy which also highlight materials most closely reflecting a questions, among them that of ke.tter defining the federal TV 'S- I , I 426 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK . government's role in providing public ilormalion, .in Numerous noneconomic issuessuch as national sov- order to prevent conflict and competition between the ereignty, cultural erosion, and personal privacyare government and the private sector. Other issues include ally linked to the international data flow problem. Sev- improving access to 1, ital information, increasing coor- eral nations have responded to this problem by estab- dination of government information collection antl dis- li,shing national strategies and policies for information semination activities, and designing appropriate man- and communications development as well. agement tools and philosophies to improve information Radios are\ another of several communications re- resource management. sources to raise difficult questions. The radio frequency: spectrum and the geostationary earth orbit are finite re- sources whose use is allocated by the International Tele- INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ANb EDUCATION communicationsUnion amou its 154 members. As the As the information economy permeates society, there is spectrum becomes more congested, issues of equitable a growing need for .professionals in engineering, pro- allocation of radio frequenel8s have become increasingly gramming,and systemanalysis beyond the number cur- critical as evidenced by the considerable attention fo- rently graduating from universities. Manypbservers be- cus'ed on the1979 World Administrative Radio lieve that our educational institutions themselves should Conference. emphasize mathematics and science as preparation for These international developments direc tly affect the careers in a vanety of technological industries. Others ability or the United States to maintain its lead in nu- contend that the federal government should provide in- merous high technology fields, as well as support the creased funding to foster programs of this kind. employment of information technology worldwideIt is Information technology in education is also receiving unclear how the United States should respond and how renewed attention. Recent advances in miniaturization the interests of domestic users of information technology and telecommunications networks have opened up new can be best represented internationally Other concerns ways of assisting students in a wide array of learning focus on the codmiementanty of our domestic and in- envirdnments. They can optimize editcational resources ternational policies in this area and on'the benefit at home which may be geographically dispersed and offer new of harnessing scientific and technical accomplishments flexibility in individualiled course work. Perhaps most abroad. I importantly, computer and communicationssystems will .) help students to acquire skillfor using these technol- INFORMATIQN TECHNOLOGYFORECASTS ogies throughout their lives and enhance their under- standing of modern technologies in general. As the in- To, give a sharper edge to* the issues raised 'aboy. a, formation society becomes more pervasive, the ability number of forecasts,will be made of specific technologi- to employ automated systems for everything from com- cal developments in the first half of this decade. These ' mercial transactions to home entertainment will become will be divided into products and services emerging from increasingly important. technological advancements, followed by a discussion of possible legislatkio and regulatory responses. AVAILABILITY oy INTERNATIONAL . - TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION RESOURCE'S INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Tge growth of large scat coinputer systems and tele- To support the types of information tranSfe; systems communications networks ::makes information available described earlier, different computer archit4ctures will all over the world. As the glObe continues to shrink,. be required. Specialists are mlw developing the tech- domestic and international activities and policies merge. nologies'needed for that architecture, including?. The United States continues to be the leader in the Meld of information technology, but is faced with an incr,eas- (1) Hard software=, which implements ;Important soft- ing challenge from its major trading pgrtner's. ware functions in speciatizsd chips. Of- particular concern ate, some nations' attempts to (2) Very large scale integrated circuits (VLSIjwhich provide the foundation for the Changes in technology control The flow of information across their borders-, The . s United States has traditionally supported the concept of and computer architeetursik. free flow of information internationally as fundamental (3)Bus architectures, viCi& link together hardware to world economic growth' and human rights.elmpedi- modules in computer/conmunications systems via ments to that flow could substantially damage the U.S. standard inlerfLes, thus enhancing localarea information industry through loss of deports. In'the long networks. run, other enterprises that rely heavily on information, (4) Extensible languages, vThich 'enable the language and communications products and services ?'or efficient kcility itself rather than traditional libraries to main- international operations will be most significantly.harmed. teln extended functions. . V 43 1 I, FS. t.` Information Techtiology427 - Among the key components of these new architectures petition with pnvate, sector enterprises. Whatever the will be memory devices and database machrnes. With outcome of this debate, the technology to accomplish new memory devices such as associative memories. electronic Message -transmission is readily availableSnd data can be processed without first being transferred from increasingly' pan of home and office computer systems. slower memory to fast memory. Database machines ap- Electr6nic Publishing proach the ideal of a plug -in database utility. These ar- , . ehitectures are particularly important for very 'large data- Electronic book' and newspaper publihing will flourish base systems. As noted earlier, the number of databases in the 1980s. Companies with profitable databases are is continually increasing. Similarly, the number of on- even now seeking the technology 4o publish electroni- line searches has quadrupled to an estimated 4 million cally. A number of traditional publishers are expanding per year since 1975.14 The market is expected to grow to include capabilities for database publishing and de-. m response to the added value of databases. as retrek livery of home information service's. One trade- associ- spective literature collections and as more students are ation estimated that 42 urgers took ptaceon the first exposed to on-line searching. This growth in 'database half Of 1980.1' This acquisition activity can be expected services will be possible as a result of two technological, to continue dunng the 1980s, as corporate giants respond developments: to the need for new technology. New network architectures. which will provide su- Office of the Future perior access to stored information; The office of the future will begin to take shape in the Mini-micro based on-line information retrieval systems. 19801 as word professing and dataprocessing functions are integrated. Future Office manager,s will be able not These will enable end users to subscribe to customized only to create local communications networks, but also portions of databases and to conduct ail searches on an to transmit large amounts of information over great dis- in-house mini-micro system. tances: They use the newly developed ,computer- These technological forecasts are by no means the generated graphics to display financial and operational only expected developments in information processing data needed for management reporting and strategic anal- c'in the 1980s, but they are among the most important. ysis,. and thereby enhance their ability for informed decision-making. Arelated activity in the workplace,will EICIFRGINGrNFORMATION SERVICES be the widespread employment of computer-aided design providing impressive productivity gains. . The informatiOn services which will probably become widespread in the 1980s have, in many cases, Already emerged. Several have been referred to earlier in indi- LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY ACTIVITIES cating the scope of the communications revolution and At present, debate among Congress, thecourts, the Ex- . the,emerging policy issues. ecutive Branch, and the independent regulatory agencies is underway on several key policy questions. The grow- 'Home Information Systems ing complexity of these issues combined with the long- Home information services will flourish in the next dec- range ramifications of decisions being made requires ade. Several experiments are currntly testing.consumer continued analysis and concern on the part of policy- response to these systems, generally called teletext andsmakers. among the core issues are the following: videotex. 'Using diffefent broadcasting or timesharing O approaches, these systems supply information , to the (I) Regulation of the communications industo. Should home television, and in some cases provide for two-way AT&T be permitted to offer information and data communieatioa. These systems offer a variety of ser- processing services? If so, under what conditions? vices, including news, educational programs, and con- What authonty should the FCC have for regulating sumer information, and will probably joffer more in the the communications industry? The data processing fetture in response to rising customer &gland. indUstry? Is legi*slation necessary or will anticipated court decisions settle thp matter? Electronic Message Systems (2) PriTection of intellectual, property. Both Congress Electronic mail systems are already operating within a and the courts are concerned about the effect of au- growing number of private organization's. At issue is tomation on traditional legal frameworks for pro- how such services might be made available to the general tecting ownership of information. What should be public. The IJ,S..Postal Service has developed what it done to adjust copyright provisions to a world of on- calls Electronic Computer-Originated.Mail (ECOVI), but line ciatabases and distributing computing systems? itis' uncertain whether the Postal,Service will be au- What protections should be awardedto software thorifed to enter the electronic message business in com- copyright, patent, or strictly trade secret? 428 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK 4 (3)Therole of government in-providing information (5) ,Government orgalation of information activities services. Government and private sector vie as prov- This is one area likely to receive increased attention. iders of infOrmatiOn. What limits should be placed How can the federal government improve its man-- on the government to prevent unfair competition9 agement of information resoues? Is adequate gov- with pnvate sector information providers? How can rnment support being proved for research and we improve coordination Of public and private sector development in information technology? In light of Information needs and services? Should such actiy- barriers to the flow of information being erected ines as electronic mail and electronic funds transfer around the world, 'how should the government be be left to the private sector, without government organized to represent U.S. information and corn . controls? muniCations interests 'internationally? (4) protection of personal privacy. Growth of Parge The positive resolution of those questions during the computer systems and -centralized databases will next several years will require enlightendd decision- continue to spark concerns for individual privacy. making. Allis necessitates a firth understanding of the Will Congress pursue additional privacy legislation state of communications and information technologies, in such areas asmedial or insurance records ?, Will of the significant advantag e y bring to society, and the greater ust of-computer systems in administering of the difficult policy issuety raise A hard look by government programs require concomitantattention policymakers at the impact of new technologies on all to computer systems security and confidentiality of sectors of the economy and the public is important prep- records? aration for the Information Age. a c ,`.. aRERENCE4* . , 9 U S. Federal Council for Science and Technology, Committee on Scientific Information. Status Report on Scientific and Tet him al . 1 Howard .1; ResnikoAand Edward C Weiss, AlaPtineese of Information in the Federal Go ernmem 11Vashington. 1) C June In Toation grid Knovyledgeto Enhance Productivity Aaper Ere?litted W63). p18 alt P4oduchvity at t Conference on Pr2fluctivily Research? me 0 , td U S Presideut's0Science Ads isorY, Committee, &tone. Gov- Center, Houston. Texaf.113-24;Apr1980,R Si ernment, and Information The Responsibilities of the lee him al Com- o ,2 *Ible. pr33 V° munity and the Government in the TrMisfer of Information(Washmg- 3. Marc UNPorat. The Info rMato 4rode t iel,)De fiiiitin.and - r ' ion, D p 52 Measurehent. (2) Sourc4 and ,MethAs for' Measurigg, thePiimaty `Natioilal Academy of SciencesNational Academy of 1:41- d,erAe, Information Sector (Washington. D C, Department of kneenng. Committee On Scientific. and Technical Communication. 5(1- Office of Telecommunications Special Publication 77212, M 1977Vt tro entkit4ead Tet hut( al Conniunicanon. A Pressing National Problem -' 4.1 Becker. editor. The InformationSocietyAp laternat Jour- and Recammenlations for Its Shli ion (Washington. WC 1969). p nal. announcement (New York: Wrane. Russak and Cr). 0 0-- , 336. 5:- Walter M Carlson. guest editOnal. The" Information Plower. ° 123 National Science FoundutionJU S Federal Council for Science vol. 2, no. 2 (1980) and.Technology, Making Tethnical Information MopeUseful The 6. Information Utilities Proceedings of the American Society for Management of a Vital Resource (Washington:4).C. June 1972), p Information Vience Annual Medan?, American Society for I,0,nfortha-. , \ 59.:; iion Scie ce, vol 11 (1974) I .13. Martha Williams. "Database and Online Statistics for I979. 7- . Det R'oSsi. A Framework for the Economic Evaluation of Bulletin of American Sot let) for Information Se tense. sol7. no. 2 Prim anCapacity DeciSions for Automated Scientific Information (December 1980). p 27 Retrieval Systems (Washington, D C National Bureau of Stan 14.Idenk, 1973 *0 15. Anne Armstrong. "The Jonah S'yndrome,' Bulletin of Anierulan 8.I./ S. President's Science Advisory Committee. Improvisthe Society for Information ScienCe, vol. 7. no 2 (December 1986). p 20 .Arentability of Scienpfic and Technical Information in the Owed Stales , (Washington, D C . December 1958). p 8. , le* ti Er gi Relatiorts-of Science, GOvernment, and Industry:. The .Case of Recombinant DNA Charles Weer* . .10 INTRODUCTION science involved in recombinant DNAanii cell fusion techniques, the frontiers of current research, possible The emergence and rapid growth of. recombinant DNA applications, and difficulties that may be inherent to the and other new techniques for genetic manipulation posed science itself. Although enthusiastic about new appli- major policy ,questions in the 1970s and will continue cations, they emphasized that molecular biologists were to do so as the research and its applications become only just beginning to understand the gene and its expres- increasingly visible in the 1980s. Several of th8 current, sion in higher cells. One urged the assembly of indus- issues were vividly highlighted by events during a five- trialists and potential investors to be careful not to "kill week period in Ole fall of 1980 in Cambridge, Massa- the goose that lays the golden eggs,' -' warning that ovetly chusets, the center of the public confrontations on the quick exploitation of die research could lower the morale safety of the research that made national headlinesin of the scientific community. 1970, At midmorning a speaker interrupted his prepared re-, On October 14, 1980,a two-day biotechnology sym- marks to announce that the Nobel Prize in Chemistry posium opened at, the Massachusetts Institute of Tech- had just been awarded to three scientists who tiad de- nology (MIT) to an overflow, audience of 500, mostly' ,veloped basic techniques for the new advances in DNA from industry and investment companies. The first ses-, research and applications. At the cotee break, however, sift featured five distinguished MIT molecular biolo- the participants were buzzing about another bit of news: gists. One of them noted in his introductibn that many The price of the newly offered Genentech stock had more of the participants, had been reading theMillIkreet Jour- than doubled within the hour. All of this sparked private naltb'at morning because in a few hours shares in a dispute among- several of the speakers about the appro- genetic engineering firm (Genentech) were to be offered priate relationship of fundamental biological research in for the first time on the open stock exchange. The speak- the universities to the newly developing biotechnology ers talked about the origins and principles of the basic industries. They were well aware of the issues because 13rofesaor of Ilistory of Science and Technology. Massachusetts Inahluto of Technology. all five MIT biologists on the program were involved Cambridge. Massachusetts with commercial enterprises in the field. 429 f 430 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK Other dimensions of the new role of biology were the applications of publicly funded research done in ,brought out by events in Cambridge during the following university laboratories. fo'ir weeks. On October 28, the city's Biohazards Cam- These developments dramatically illustrate major un- mittee held a public hearing to gauge community reaction resolved national issues in contemporary relations among totthe plan of Biogen, asmajor international genetic en- science, government, ay d industry. Although the tocus gineering firm, to establish a Cambridge facility for re- in this account is on recombinant DNA technology, simi- combinant-PNA researchind manufacturing. Within a lar issues arise in other areas of science and engineering. weekthe Cambridge CityTouncil reactivated the Cam- The problems involye: bridge- Experimentation Review Board. This citizens' AY. group had been created in 19'76 to consider whether (1) The public's perception of new technology and de- recombinant DNA research at Harvard and MIT posed termination Of the role the, public should play in a threat to the community, and had gone out of existence defining the purposes and goals of new technology, in early 1977 after recommending what was to become and the conditions under which it should be developed; the nation's firstl% ocal ordinance regujiing such re- (2)Determination of whether and how to regulate new search. In 1980, the Council' reconve the board to technology; - consider Biogen's request to locate in the city. Two The relationship of federally funded basic research weeks later, in the city of Waltham (part of .the Route to commercial exploitation of its applications; 128 h7gh technology industrial area near Cambridge), (4) The effects of increased university interaction with the city counciltheld a public hearing on simi* issues industry on the ciirdction and quality of basic science, related to the operation of a Waltham genetic engineering oh the community of scientists, and on the university firm, Collaboratiye Genetics. In December 1980, Wal-, environment. , tham approved an ordinance regulating recombinant. DNA experimentation and,use in the city. The ordinance In addition, ethical issues stemming from the applica- requires such work to be done under the National Insti- tions of will he increasingly important in the tutes of Health (NIH) guidelines and mandates some 1980s, at the level 'of practical reality rather than mere- additional safety measures. abstraction. . MeanWhile, a newly founded company; Genetics In- This paper reviews the background and current status stitute, sought permission to establish its laboratory in of these issues in relation to recombinant DNA tech- Somerville, immediately adjacent to Cambridge. In Jan- niques. Because much has already been written about uary 1981, negative community response was expressed them, I will emphasize only those issues that have not at a hearing attended by more than 100 people. One yet received' adequate attention (see the bibliography Somerville alderman challengedtthe credibility of a lead which follows this paper). The field and the policy issues ing Harvard. biologist as a safety expert because of his are unfolding before our eyes, providing an opportunity major rote in the firm: "You're more than a scientist for close observation of the social and intellectual proc- now. You're a businessman."' Harvard and MIT' biol- esses of the growth of knowledge and its uses, and em- ogists are prominently involved in the three genetic N- phasizing the need for critical examination of the related gi nee ri ng companies under public Krutiny by local gov- polidy processes. ernments in Canfliidge, Somerville, and Waltham. Yet another indication of current reactions to issues GROWTH OF DNA RESEARCH AND CONCERN raised by the applications of molecular genetics was the ABOUT RISKS Ili THE 1970s' response by the faculty of Harvaki University to the proposal that the university itself take a role in founding The deilelopmerit of recombinant DNA techniques in the a company forcommercial exploitation of recombinant early 1970s was a major event in the history of science DNA techniques, iFolvig some faculty members and and was a result of decades of fruitful research in mo- making use of university -owned patents.. The intense lecular biology in several nations. These techniques in discussions in Cambridge had echoes at other leading vOlved the use of newly discovered restriction enzymes universities throughout the United States. Finally, in to isolate and remove specific gene sequences from DNA November 1980, the Harvard Corporation reiected the moleculw of various organisms, and to recombine them plan 4etause of its potential kir generating conflicts' with with the DNA of (per organisms. Tliesd techniques also academic values' through. inte,'ference with open Com- involved the application of methods to reprodute large munication, influence on criteria for promotionl, ntrusion amounts of exact copies (clones) of the hybrid or recom- on commitments to teaching and research, and damage binant DNA molecules. The ability to manipulate nu- to the credibility and integrity oT the university.' Harvard cleotide sequences.directly made it possible to transmit (and many other American universities) continue, how- genetic information among different species. It provided ever, to explore ways of obtaining financial benefit from a powerful new tool for study of the structure and func-. 52 4 .Recombinant DNA431 tion of genes and made it possible to study details of Guidelines for Research Involving Recombinant DNA DNA and its transcription in cells of higher organisms. Molecules took effect in July 1976, and subsequently Biologists immediately recognized the major signifi- governed federally funded university research in the cance of these developments. They were now able to United States. They became the model for guidelines in solve problems at the forefront of knowledge, which also several other coiintries as well. had .possible important applications. By 1977, scintists in the field Were issuing public Of comparable importance was the fact that the sci- statements explaining that they no$felt that the hazards entists irWolVedinthe work made an unprecedented ef- had been exag t erated and tat, in fact, the expenence fort to inform the scientific communityland, indirectly, of biologists s nce 1973 (when [hey first sounded die the public--7-ncit only of the exciting new advances and alarm)t had co vinced them that much of the concern was potential benefits of their basic research, but also of their groundless. T ese statements came after a year of public concern about potential hazards in their own laboratory controversy r garding the risks involved, and after Con- work. The extraordinary extent of these concerns was gress had 1) gun to consider legislation to regulate, re- made visible in 1974 when these researchers called on combinant NA research. The experience of the biol- / fellow scientists to refrain voluntarily from doing certain ogists sincei1973had been political as well 8 scientific. experiments until their hazards were assessed and safe- Public interest had been relatively limited until 1976. guards devised From the start, throughout the February Then, as [Search began, concern surfaced in several 19.25 Asilomar conference, and during subsequent efforts academic communities. Some public controversy was to develop guidelines, the issue w as defined by the sci- sparkedhiy scientists who-were critical of the guidelines entists as a limited problem that the scientific community on scienfic grounds. But many nonscientists quickly could solve by technical means Possible abuse or misuse realized that the information essentill, for evaluating po- of the research was mentioned occasionally, but it was tential Mishaps (and thus, the adequacy of the guidelines) excluded from major consideration, as were also its so-s was not available. There were many unknowns. Were cial implications. The discussions focused on whether the guidelines. adequate? Were, they to be believed as a : there was any danger in the research, and if so, how the matter of faith? Which scientists should be trusted under /.. danger could be avoided while the resrch continued.' such circumstances? Were scientists acting out of self- Scientists, sensing the excitement anpopularity of interest when they assured the public that research was the new field, were eager to do recombant DNA re- safe? What public health benefits might be delayed or. search. Developers of the guidelines, cony nced the field lost by slowing down the research until more was known should be allowed to grow, were octant to impose about the risks? - _ artificial restraints. The NationsInstitutes of Health By the end of 1977, 1§bills 1were introduced in Con- were thus in the ambiguous posit' n of encouraging the gress and the'subject was widely prpbed in 25 hearings. growth of research using, recombinant DNA techniques At first, many scientists were. prepared to accept the while at the same time taking r sponsibility for estab- inevitability of federal legislation,-. wnich they hoped lishing and enforcing safety regulations restricting such would extend NIH guideline's governing academic re- research. Concurrently, seientists were tooling up to use search to industry and prevent the proliferation of local, the new techniques and were waiting for the g en light regulations more severe than the' guidelines. They soon to proceed as rapidly as possible. Many of thocharged mobilized vociferous opposition to legislation that they with developing guidelines felt that, evt"fit ,ough they feared would be too rigid for, a new field in which the lacked information, they had to move as quickly as perceptions of risk were changing rapidly..They believed possible. that such legislation would restrict their research and The scientists involved believed that they 'needed to' threaten their relative autonomy. In their lobbying ef(orts demonstrate that scientists, on their own, could act re- the scientists argued that new scientific evidence and sponsibly to protect the_public. They felt that if they analysis of existing data demonstrated that the proba-. didn.'t do it on their own, Someone else, would do it for bility of risk from recombinaht DNA eiperitnents was a `them. When pressures concerning regulation exist from much lower than they had originally thought. Sympa- / both scientists and the public and a large degree of Un- thetic Media coverage and increasing references to im- certainty prevails, there is bound to be disagement on pending medical benefits of -the research contributed to the scientific basis of risks and the weight attached to a changed congressional mood. None of the pending bills them. The process of establishing rules therefore in- came to a vote. .. volved formulating a series,of compromises. It was nik- Rapid growth' of the research and its applications oc- , essary to provide a framework for safe conduct of the curredlgespite the public disputes, restricting guidelines' research acceptable to the scientists affected by the reg- special containment facilities, and related bureaucratic ulations and at the same time to assure the public that impediments that reached down tt the laboratory level jt would be protected against possible hazards. The NIH While the replatory issues were being debated in com- o . , N../ 4 . 4 ' 432 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK mittees anin public hearings during the late 1970s, the search, and the publication of a newsletter were among laboratory use of recombinant DNA techniques was the institutional efforts that stimulated the informal coin-. booming, as its potential was being explored in one sub- munication network in the budding field andenlarged. field ofbiology after another. It became a central tool its scope. for research which previously had been considered im- In addition, the discussions of the risks'and bene5ts, practical or impossible. Combined with other new de- of the research in public forums. hearings. and fhe media velopments, such as rapid methods of DNA sequencing, stimulated interest among investors, industrialists,' and it has created great intellectual excitement and activity scientists in the possible applications' A number of bi- affecting all of biology, including cell biology and im- ologists never before involved in applied research began munology. Already the research has led to a dramatic to consider. commercial 'uses of their work. In some ins change in the understanding of the structure of 'genes stances, the early results of such efforts to produce sub- wough the discovery of intervening sequences and stances with important human medical applications. were greater understinding of transposable elements:1 Recom- reported directly to the press and to congressional com- hinnt DNA methodology rapidly has become a required mittees engaged in legislative hearings even before,they technique in molecular biology laboratories, and, more were published in scientific journals, an order tobolster and more scientists are using this powerful approach the argument that the benefits side of the research out- because of its sinclicity, its effectiveness, and its fruit- weighed the risks. fulness in opening new areas of research. The increase All of these activities contributed to the growth of a iii the number of federal grants, the emergence of riew technique which had great scientific merit from its in- journals and newsletters. special conferences, and train- ception because it had strong intellectual appeal. pro- ing workshops devoted to recombinant DNA resea°11---vider' fruitful opportunities-for research and publication, all indicate the enormous growth of research in the field.` and was relatively easy To learn and do Some experi- Although potential applications were clear from the ments'and some applications, however. were temporarily (delayed because of the time involyed in the process of . beginning, they became more apparent as the research prqgreskd, and developed mush more rapidly than had establishing, revising, and interpreting safety guidelines been anticipated. Recombinant DNA and gene sequeno- In addition, some scientists in the field had lesstime/for nt techniques have made it possible not only to isolate research because of their participation in co,mmittee and analyze genes but also to engineer genes AO make meetings and public hearings and because of the in- specific proteins for synthesis of such substances as in- creased paperwork related to their laboratories. The , sulin, somatostatin, interferon, and 'other polypeptides overall cost of the research was increased hy the guide-, with important biomedical application. In addition to lines and risk assessment activities and by the expenses pharmaceutical and medical applications, the use Of the for new containment faeilities. many of which are now technique in producing industrially useful enzymes has no longer required because of changesin the guidelines also sparked great interest, and activities are underway Funds for risk assignment and new facilities usually came, in the agricultural, chemical, and energy areas. By1980 from budget categories desigpated for evaluation or an estimated 100 U.S, companies wereevaluating or building and did not drainfundsavailable for research. conducting recombinant DNA or otherbiotechnology On the whole, these delays, distractions, and costsan-. research.6 pear to have been more than offset bythe acceleration On.balaace, it may well dbe tliat concern and contro- of the field caused' by the extraordidary diffusion of in- versy ova risks and the need for contLol of researchhave formation and the intrinsic appeal cif the* research- accelerated growth of the field rather than retarded it. This hypothesis needs further study, but it is supported by. several consequences of the special treatment given CURRENTSTATI1OF DNA TECHNOLOGY AND tOjecombinant DNA research. From the beginning, a ITS.REGULATION d potential of , need was perceived to.atsess the nature What is the status of regulation., risk assessment, and the research iri order to detenhine wher it posed risks public perception aneMtivolveinent.inrecpnibiiant DNA - and, if sci, to devise methodsto reduc and contain them. technology at the'beginning of the 1980s? : This ledt6 acceleration and supplementation of normal 'Highly 'publicized .channels-of scientific communication. REGULATION 'meetings such as Asilomar in 1975 :acquainted many , '.scientists with the background of the research and withr The NIH guidelines arethe only regulationsspecificily the newest results considerably earlier than they other- "c applying to recombinant DNA research. They have been wise would have learned Of it The development of guile- adopted by oilier federal agencie,s and noviare mandatory lines, the establishment in 1976 of the NIH Office. of for all federally fundedsearch.fi*compliance Scan Recombinant DNA Activities, .which distributed irdor- result in withdrawal of fdinglrom the institution. Pri- mation on safe and efficle> host-vectorsystems for re- mary responsibility for determining thatexperiments are -, itft 54 , 2 . Recombinant DNA 433 carried out in accordance with the guidelines is assigned cupational Safety and Health has initiated a senes of on- to the InstitutiOnal Biosafety Committee (IBC) at the site surveys of compaaies starting up large-scale recom- institution where the research is done. The guidelines binant DNA work and is studying appropriate rec- have undergone three major revisions by the NIH Re- ommendations to industry for medical surveillance of combinant DNA. Advisory Committee (RAC) since -1976 employees. The Environmental Protection Agency has and are continually subject to revision. The trend has established a research program to provide a ata base on been to relax physical and biological containment stand- the environmenta1.41Pactsof large-scale genetic engi- ards and accountability protocols. At present, about 90 neering, including studies of the establishment and per- percent of recombinant DNA work being pursued in the sistence of novel genomes in a variety of environments,. United States-is either no longer covered by the guide- modeling of the probability of escape of organisms from -lines or is subject to only minimal controls equivalent containment, and exchange of genetic information. to _"standard laboratory practice." In most cases re- In addition, the Office of Technology AssesZment has searchers do not need to use the safety systems that had completed a study called Impacts of Applied Genetics. been introduced for biological and physical 'containment Microorganisms, Plants, and Animals, which reviews - under. the original guidelines. NIH further reduced its several aspects of the subject, including current regu- oversight role in November 1980 by eliminatingthe re- latory activities, and formulates options for congres- qtiirement for researcherst to:register and receive NIH sional action. A Senate oversight hearing on industrial aplisival before initiating experiments for which the applications of recombinant DNA techniques was held guiTelines already specify the containment level. This in May 1980, and, although a bill (S. 2234) to register responsibility is now in the hands of the IBC at the all recombinant .DNA research with the Department of .institution where the work is to be done.' Health and Huinan Services was introduced earlier in the NIH has not yet studied the effectiveness of the IBCs year, it remained in committee and no further action was but plans to du so tysihen the heads of the IBCs from taken by the end of the 96th Congress.9 There is little almost 200 institutions met in Washington late in No- evidence of widespread congressiZnal support for special vember 1980, many balked at the added responsibility- regulation in this field. of such an evaluation. Many participants believed that the IlKs could not be justified exclusively on the basii RISK ASSESSMENT '41 of the potential risks of recombiriant DNA research. They b6lieved.that such research posed no greater hazards than Potential safety risks of recombinant DNA research have identifiable biohazards in other.fields.8 lb been the-focus of concern since the early 1970s. In 197.7 With the proliferation of industrial activity in the field and 1978 a consensus emerged among researchersin the and in the absence of federal legislgion, NIH has de- field that the potential risks were less serious than had veloKc,Lprocedures for voluntary c`Mplipce with the been originally. feared., Upon more reflective analysis of guidelines by industries using recombinant DNA tech- existing data, these biologists became convinced that niques, and most if not ajl of the companies have an- most of their original concerns were unfounded. Atcon- nounced ,fiat they will comply. The NIH Recombinant ferences and workshops in 1977 and 1978, efforts were DNA Advisory,Committee-i4 currently debating its role made to assess risks on the bdsis of available knowledge. in regulating industry through voluntary compliance. The results were reassuring to the scientists and en- Many members and outside observers have challenged couraged them to relax the guidelines. -4 the ability of the committee to make judgments and take, . At that time, however, the first experiments specifi- responsibility regarding indusdial practices where they gaily designed to assess risks in tOis field were just getting have inadequate expertise to deal with large-scale fer- under...way. Defining experiments to assess risks in a mentation processes and no autlionty to monitor or en- rapidly changing new field had inherent difficulties, and force compliance with the guidelines. The trend has been efforts of this kind lacked precedent and experience. 1° for thii committee to recommend reduction of its re- Risk assessments had been furthr delayed by lack of sponsibilities for the safety of research in the private interest among scientists and bureaucratic obstacles. sector, even in the absence of evidence that the regulatory Some of the biologists involved in the deyelopment of agencies- playing an active role in the field. NIH guidelines maintain that risk,assessment was un- Several federal agencies are currently considering their dertaken reluctantly, in response to political pressure, roles and are participating in the industrial'practices sub- rather than whbleheartedly, in response to technological --febrininitree-ot the Federal fhteragency Advisory Com- reasoning. mittee on Recombinant DNA _Research, and a few are Others avgne that, although some questions have been beginning limited efforts at regulation. The Food and 'answered;' there is still too much uncertainty and not Drug Administration is in the-final stage of defining the enough- systematic knowledge of risks assessment. Sev,- policy process to regulate drugs produced by recombi- eral thoughtful risk assessment experiments have focused nant DNA 'techniques. The National Institute' for Oc- on specific areas, where information was needed. Al- , 5 a e 434.AAAS POI,ICY OUTLOOK thoughlhese experiments have laid to rest' a number of and state regulatory agencies have done little to address the concerns that`had been raised, soiwe researchersin these local concerns because they are reluctant to step the field and some scientists on the XAC feel .that the in when no risk has been demonstrated and they lack the interpretation of data from these experiments has been appropriate expertise to assess risk.themselves." overly optimistic and that problems and ambiguities flood by the investigators have been overlooked or un- PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT duly minimized. In some cases, they argue, generali- zations have been prematurely made at a stage when By now it has betome clear that the question is not scientific knowledge and prudence call for further case-*whether the publib should participate in scientific Sand by-case analysis. They maintain that too few risk ex- technological affairs that have important social conse- periments have been done and warn against premature quences, but how they-wi participate effectively and abandonment of risk assessment." intelligently. Despite high public interest in the new de- The development,and annual update by NIH of a com- velopments in molecular genetics, opportunities for pub- prehensive risk assessment program was mandated by lic participation at the decision-making leyel are still - the Secretary of the Department of Health, Education limited and participation is often ineffective. Opportun- and Welfare when the revised NIH guidelines were is- ities for public input at the 1976 and 1977 NIH hearings sued in December 1978. It was not until late 1979 that on the guidelines created some channels for public com- NIH, the agency responsible for both the promotion and ment, and NIH has published an extensive record of the regulation of the research, published the final version of guidelines process.'4 More recently, the public has the first plan. The NIH proposal for the first annual shown little interest in the guidelines con the national update of the plan was released for public comment in level, and the media have only sparsely covered thein, September 1980, and the final version of the revised risk except when they have been reportedly violated by assessment program will be announced in mid-1981." researchers. * The hazards of recombinant DNA research remain several positions on the NIH Recombinant DNA Ad- hypothetical after five years° of intense research con- visory Committee have been designated for "public ducted under safety guidelines at laboratories throughout members" (about one-third of the present members, in- the world. The new knowledge gained, from the research, cluding the chairman., are not scientists). Their partici- the promise of its applications, and the absence thus far pation has introduced some policy issues that otherwise of demonstrated risk, have all contributed-to a lack of might not have been raised.15 Yet most of the issues enthusiasm among researchers for vigorous risk assess- placed before the committee are technical and generally ment. Now that some political battles havebeen won beyond the expertise of members not trained in the rele- and the public mood seems -favorable, much of thewill vant scientific fields. Many of the scientists onthe com- to devise and conduct risk studies hasdisappeared. Re- mittee have made special. efforts to explain technical searchers who have lingering doubts about the safety of matters to nonscientist mefnbers. Several of the non- specific exptriments or the adequacy of the containment scientists have developed considerable ability to discuss prescribed by guidelines are reluctant to discuss them many of the technical issues. Dissentingviews on matter's publicly. because they do not want to be labeled asdis- of procedure and valuesmost recently regardingin- sidents or to unleash new negative public reactions. dustrial applicationshave been regularly advanced by Some researchers are critical of. thosescientists who, in several public members, but they comprise a relatively their eagerness to reassure the public, rashlyproclaim isolated minority on the committee and generally have that the research is perfectly safe. These enthusiasts, been heavily outvoted. The public members have not some argue, may provoke a backlashif.there is a real tended to vote as a bloc. Although the committee's meet- (or perceived) mishap. The very success of recombinant ings are open to the public, most of the observers who DNA research in yielding knowledgeabout genetic struc- have attended during the past several years have been ture has had a sobering effect on manyscientists, who representatives of industrial firms with interests in the realize that the field isfullof surprises. field.'6 At the same time there is,apprehension that large-scale A few groups, such as the Cambridge Experimentation industrial operations mightpose special problems forrisk Review Board; have been fountted, but they have been 41.- fully:" They '-assessments In some. communities, continuing doubts° short-lived and have not been evaluated crisis and about the safety of recombinant DNA research havebeen were initiated on short notice in response to a coupled with suspicions about the responsibility of in- neverdeveloped a continuing involvement of the public.- dustry generally, especially in the wake ofincreasing The reactivated Cambridge board, whose membership board of public awareness of occupational safety and industrial was virtually the same as that of the original toxic waste problems. The motives of scientistswho 1976, was able to build on its past experience and func- offer reassurance have also been questioned because of tion more effectively. In assessing the adequacy of reg- their assumed financial stake in the outcome,Federal ulation of industrial recombinant DNA activities, the -, 9. A 0 Recombinant DNA 435. board consulted its own experts from a variety of relevant engineering techniques. Although the prospects appear fields, including authorities on fermentationprocesses promising, the technology is largely untried and the sci- and sewage disposal. entific understanding basic to it is largely incomplete. The effectiveness, safety, and economic advantage of the products have yet to be demonstrated. Early publicity APPLIED MOLECULAR- GENE,SICS IN THE 1980s: about huniAn therapeutic substances, such as human in- POLICY PROSPECTS AND PROBLEMS. sulin, growth hormones, and jnterferon --all produced using recombinant DNA techniqueshas not always PUBLIC EXPECTATIONS made,clear whether the gene product was biologically active ati'd performed the same functions that it would As the public controversy over the risks subsiddd in the perform naturally. 2° The genetic technology industry late 1970s, attention focused on the benefits of there- must purify itS-products to separate them from unwanted search. In 1980, a steady stream of enthusiastic accounts or unsafe substances that might be produced by the bac- in the scientific, business, and popular press, anda num- terium containing the recombinant DNA molecule, and' ber of workshops and conferences hailed a revolution in all of this has to be economically feasible. Because tests molecular genetics and the birth of the Age of Biotech- are necessary to establish [he safety and efficac,y of the nology I' This exuberant 'response was based not only substances; there may be considerable time between lab- on the power of recombinant DNA technology, but also oratory research and commercial availability-. Competi- on its appeal as an embodiment of current values. Re- tion in the biotechnology industry is hastening the pace, combinant DNA is presented as a panacea that will in- however: a few companies have already. started human crease productivity and profit, help solve the energy testing of bacterialinsulin, growth hormone, and problem, increase world food production, and improve interferon. the public health. It is also regarded as consistent with In raising hopes of solutions to major health problems, the need for protection of the environment and conser- the genetic technology industry may be overselling the vation of resources. The'new genetic technology is pro- public on the new technplogies. For example, magazines moted as a "tech fix" for lagging rates of economic and newspapers have already described interferon as a growth and productivity. For those seeking solutions to cancer cure. Natural human optimism is in this situation economic problems through techrkological innovation exacerbated by the highly competitive nature of the in- and transfer, recombinant DNA techniques represent dustry, the prospect of large profits, the predictable en- ideal examples of successful experiments in this direc- thusiasm of pioneers opening up new fields, the prolif- tion. Some academic institutions advance similar argu- eration of new companies with a need to attract investors ments in the hope that applications of genetic research in order to get off the ground, and the idealization of developed in university laboratories can provide them this new technology as a solution to econoniic, social, with needed income. and health problems. Unfulfilled expectations might well ° The enthusiasm also reflects the desire to demonstrate lead the public to doubt the credibility and motives of to theVublic that the research has beneficial applications scientists, and to beCome disappointed and impatient and to disCourage unwarranted fears that might need- with the pace and direction of research. Discontent nil& lessly delay bringing needed 'products on the market. In also develop among young scientists recruited into the addition, recombinant DNA technology is offered as a genetic technology industry if the prospects for career dramatic exampleApeultimAte payoff of basic re- development and continuity do not materialize in what search. Governme icy has been based on the as- originally appeared to be a glamorous, intellectually sumption that even basic science research should pay off stimulating, and lucrative field. if it is to receive public funds. Historically, this as- Just as it would be irresponsible to overstate the claims sumption has led to pressure on scientists for visible and for the new genetic technology industry, so would it be immediate results. The clear potential of biomedical re- unsound to encourage and facilitate its growth without search to alleviate human suffering places it under special careful consideration of important unresolved policy is- pressure. The history of the relationships among Con- sties concerning the relations of science, government, gress, NIH, NSF,. and other executive agencies in the and industry. past two decades demonstrates that the political envi- ronment significantly influences the establishment ofre- - 1- search priorities, tending to favor areas such as cancer PATENTING OF LIVING ORGANISMS research that may yield results of current national The June 1980 Supreme Court decision (five votes to interest. 19 four) permitting the patenting of "a live human-made 0.,,' The new industry of genetic technology hopes to de- Anicro-organism" opened the door to action on more than velop, manufacture, and profitably market needed prod- 100 patent applications based on recombinant DNA tech- ucts through the exploitation of state-of-the-art genetic niques. The majority opinion of the court took the po- , , PI I 436 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK sition that the distinction between living and nonliving What 'ethiCal considerations should be taken.into ac- things was not relevant to the granting of a patent, and count when decidingpatent policy? How can effective that the cntena for issuing a patent must rest on whether public input be obtained and what role will it have in the genetically manipulated bacterial strain was `a prod- the formulation of policy"? uct of human ingenuity" or,."a product of nature.,"This Opinion rested on interpretation of the inteeof Congress Many scientists are deeply concerned about the threat as expressed in the Patent Act of1790(enibodied in 35 which commercial interests may pose to the traditional U.S.C. Section 101), the 1930 Plant Patent Act,and the free exchange of data and to open publication in scientific 1970 Plant Vanety Protection Act. The court stated that journals. Peer review, verification of results.and/ulti- Congress should debate this quetion if it disagreed with mately the growth of knowledge are not possibl /when the ruling. The dissenting opinion held that Congress research Procedures are kept secret for commercial rea- had not foreseen the new areas made possible by genetic sons. Even though the patent laws require coniderable engineenng and argued that 'Congress must act before disclosures. many scientists are concerned tha the rapid the court could extend patent rights into such areas." industrialization of newly spawned basic rearch will The decision received wide press coverage and stim, skew the intellectual development of the fi- d and will ulated discussions about the ethical implications of pri- degrade cooperation within the scientific ommunity vate ownership of lite torms. The impact of thedecision Even before the Supreme Court decision: cademic bi- on the genetic engineenng industry and onthe free flow ology departments were disturbed by the possibility of of scientific information was also considered. The Su- commercial gain, which sparked disputes among col- preme Court said its decision rested on a narrowinter- leagues. aroused suspicions of piracy and premature pub- pretation of patent law, and some observers subsequently lication.- and interfered with the exchange of data, bac- argued that the ruling did not involve important larger terial strains. and cell lines." issues of public policy. Others maintained thatthe court Stanford. Harvard. Yale. and the University of Michi- was indicating that the legal basis for itsdecision was gan are only sonic of the universities investigating ways inadequate and was inviting public bodies to prepare and to retain an interest in potentially,profitable patents discuss leg- !anon." Congress can, of course, enact leg- These institutions are. tly and large. responding to in- islation torohibit patenting of living organisms, whether creasing involvenient of university biologists with pri- they areodified or not, or it can specifically provide vate companies. either as consultants orfounders and for pates of living organisms to whatever extentit sees part owners. Individual scientists are voicing their-con- fit. Congressional hearings may be held on the subject cern about the effect of commercialinterests on their dunng 1981, pnd the President's Commission for the field or on their institutions, in private' discussions or ' Study of Ethical Problems in Medicine andBiomedical through group letters circulated among their colleagues and Behavioral Research is examining the issue as part Yet the scientific community and the public have had of a more general study on genetic engineering to be little opportunity to discuss these issues systematically. completed in 1981. A "Public -Forum on Patentability Assessment of the effect of existing arrangements on the of Microorganisms" was held in July 1980 by the university, on the health of science. on industry, and on American Society for Microbiology and the House Com- the public has, to date. been inadequate. mittee on Science and Technology, but there has as yet been no other visible activity in Washington. THE tHEALTH OF SCIENCE Public interest in this issue is high, and additional opportunity should be provided for public discussion of The recombinant DNA case directly involves threemajor appropriate ways to deal with the development, own- factors that contribute to the heahh of science: the ership, and use of living organisms. Que§tions that have strength of the universities, financial support for basic not been,adequately considered are: research, and the social system of the relatedscientific community,, What effect will panting have on the overall devel- Major research universine , where most of the work opment of biomedical research? Does genetic research in basic science has traditionally been done, increasingly have special problems not shared by other fields? What complain of impending financial shortfalls because of to be learned from the history of the effect of patents the steadily arising costs for plant, equipment. and per- inbther areas of research? sonnel, especially for Vsts associated with scientific re- search. For several years, university administrators have Who should profit from commercial applications of warned that federal support is not keeping pace with the publicly funded research? Private ind4istry? Scientists increase in 'operating expenses required to maintain high whose research yielded'the applications? The aca- standards of research. In addition, federal support for demic institutions which sponsored the research? The basic research is decreasing (in constant dollars) in some citizens whose tax dollars supported the 'research? fields. Goverrenf agenCies thattraditionally have sup- Recombinant DNA437 ti ported all or most basic research in certain fields are interests to pursue commercial ones, (c) that the admin- increasingly under pressure to emphasize practical results istration's authorityto protectits academic interests and many are trying to hasten the transfer of scientific might diminish, and (d) that Harvard's reputation for knowledge to practical technology academic integrity might be damaged by even the ap- Influenced by the commercial applications of DNA pearance of conflict between its academic and financial techniques, a number of university researchers, not pre- interests.The universityadministration emphasized, viously involved with industry. have become industrial however, that it badly needed additional sources of fund- .consultants, joined industrial laboratories, or taken lead- ing to strengthen the university 's teaching and research ing roIeNin founding new companies .The research and that it continue to explore similar proposals.proposals." on which the applications are based was developed pri- For seTral years, Congress has discussed theappro- marily in university laboratories' stpported by public priate relationship of the university to commercialex- fundsIn past attempts to reap sofne of the financial ploitation of federally funded research doneon university benefits from new developments, major universities premises. Several recent congressional actions focuson developed a variety of arrangements to benefit from the transfer of technology and university licensing of patents ownership and licensing of patents(For example, the and will probably stimulate great interest in thenear Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation was established future Congress has not. however,. adequately consid- in 1925 I Several universities are currently discussing ered the need to provide stable and increasingsupport other arrangements to retain a portion of the profitsgen- for basic research Nor has Congress recognized theim- erated from university research portance of protecting the university from damaging The proposal recently ads anced by the administration pressures that w ould impair the quality of research and of Harvard University pfovoked strong objections from inhibit open Lonummication among scientists. its own faculty and was withdrawn. but the issue at These problems were stressed in November 1980 when Harvard is by no means settled The proposed Harvard a group of recent Nobel Prize winners visited the House experiment suggested major res ision of the university Subcommittee on -Science. Research. and Technology .patent policy and alteration of the formal relationships to appeal for more funds for-basic research and for greater -1;- of the university to its investments, and of the faculty congressional sensitivity to the special problems of the to industryIt would have involved the university and scientific community. On this occasion. Hamilton Smith, some of ils biology faculty in founding a genetic engi- the microbiologist who shared the Nobel Prizein 1978 neering company in which both the faculty members and for work that laid the foundations for recombinant DNA the university would be shareholders..along with private research, expressed his concern that the rush toward venture capital investors. The university, as owner of commercial applications in biology would harm theaca- any patents resulting from the work in a professor's lab- dem,ic env ironment which has nurtured basic research. oratory, would license use of those patents to the com- Smith noted that "free exchange of scientific informa- pany At one point in the discussions', the Harvard admin- tion... may suffer, and long-term progress may be istration proposed that space in a ne,w biochemistry and traded for short-term financial gain.. . We still do not molecular biology building be used as temporary quarters know the structure of human chromosomes,, how the for the company.24 genes are arranged. how tissues and organs are formed, The reaction of the facultY, first in the biology de- or even how any single human gene is ,egulated and partment and then throughout the entire university, was expressed." Smith called for increased federal support overwhelmingly negative. The proposalwas discussed of such academic research to "prevent the gutting of the at 'facility and department meetings and in group lefters university faculty" by new companies in the field." circulated within the university. It stimulated comments An earlier warning had been sent to Congress in 19,78 in the national press.2c Despite the university 's claim that° by another Nobel laureate in biology, Joshua Lederberg, there would be safeguards to prevent abuse of.the system, who predicted, "The possibility of profitespecially opponents argued that major university investment in the when other funding is so tightwill be a distorting in- commercial work of faculty members would compromise fluence on open communication and on the pursuit of academic freedom and lead to unavoidable conflicts of scholarship."29 Lederberg wrote that he did not think interest, to the detriment of the research and educational that his views were widely shared.within the universities. responsibilities of the faculty and the university. Ulti- In 1981, however, these problems have developed into mately, the Harvard Corporation, stating that "academic a major concern. risks outweighed the financial gain," voted to withdraw University scientists in some fields of physics, chem- the proposal 26 Explaining the decision, President Bok istry, and biology have long been involved withcom- . cited several of the objections that had been raised, in- mercial applications of their research, especially since cluding (a) that academic discussion could be impaired the end of World War II. However, there has been little because of commercial' competition, (b) that professors systematic evaluation or historical analysis of the effects and graduate students might, shirk academic duties and of these experiences on the university, on the research 00. 438 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK envirronment; on the direction and quality of basic scr- tinny of an action should thus be counted as a major ence, or on the scientists themselves.Understanding of, benefit; its irreversibility, a 'major cost." It also called these effectsand how they have differed for specific for limits ;on the extent,to i,thich any major technology scientific disciplines (add groups within them), institu- is allowed to proliferate (or .conversely, to stagnate) tions, and historical periodswill beespecially helpful without the gathering of fairly definite evidence, either in assessing and responding to the rapidchanges now by the developers themselves or by some public agency underway in molecular genetics. as to thecharacter and extent of possible harmful ef- The events .of the past decadethe developmentof. fects."..The NAS committee also warned that "society powerful new research techniques, the demands for in- simply cannot afford to \assume that the harmful con- h11 be neg- creased public scrutiny 'of the procedures andgoals of sequences of prevalent technological trends basic research in molecular biology, and the newrele- ligible or will prove readily correctable when they vance of such research for industrial andbiomedical ap- appear."30 plications-L.-have had profound effects on the community In the case of the biotechnology industry, the concern diverted'the of researchers involved. The excitement of thesesci- about possible biohazards appears to have entists over the possibility of opening up newfrontiers 'attention of scientists and policymakers during the late 1970s from the geed and the opportunity to make'such was coupled with concern thatsafety problems and pub- public assessments while the commercial applications lic distrust might hamper the research Theregulatory efforts were initially procedures. public confrontation, and politicalbattles were rapidly developing. Federal focused primarily on human health risks.. Studies on the were new and unexpected. andthe rapid growth of op- broader issues were initiated late and are of limited scale portunities for commercial applicationsof their work and scope. The Environmental Protection Agencyhas raised new dilemmas. Solutions to thecurrent.problems effects on.the health of the contracied for a study to produceon assessment of "the must takeittlo account -the potential ecologic, economic and social impact" of the scientific communk applied genetics industry, which is expected to be com- - pleted in 1982. The Office of Technology Assessment SOCIAL ANIYLTHICAL CONSEQUENCES study, completed in January 1981, covers a numberof The enormous potential of genetic technology in a variety related issues but is not yet available forpubliE discus- of fields has been much heralded. Even if only some of sion. A Congressional ResearchService report on bio- the hopes of its promoters materialize. the newtech- technology prepared for the Subcommittee on Science. nology will surely' ,transform our lives in thenext dec- Research, and Technology of the House Committee on ades. Despite the highly visible, adverse effects of tech-. Science and Technology has recently become available." nology in recent times, there has, been little pblic It provides a useful overview whichcould help stimulate prior- discussion of the potential economic, social, andnvi-, needed public discussion of the aims, directions, ronmental consequences of .new technologies, nor has ities, and potential social and ethical impacts of thede- there been debate on desirable priorities for application. velopment of biotechnology. (Belatedly, energy technologies are now under debate.) Although there are ethical dimensions ofall of the issues discussed thus far, several ethical problems related Biotechnology presents an opportunity for just such con. 4 structive discussion and planning. Whichapplications to genetic research and its applicationshave been of other afe socially valued? Which may beundesirable? What special interest. Recombinant DNA, along with would we like the technology to do? Does it automati- new techniques such as rapidgene sequencing, cell fu- cally serve "human needs" and "publicpurposes?" sion, and mass tissue culture methods, may be applied Who should decide about its uses, and who will benefit to higher-organisms, including humans.There i's public from it? Can we in good conscience introduce and en- concern about the ethical aspectsof human genetic courage the growth of a powerful new technologywith- screening, amniocentesis, and, more ,recently, out asking why we are doing it and for whom? fertilization, and gene therapy. ThepOtential long-term More than a decade ago the. influential technology effects of applied genetics on the en' ironment and on assessment report of the National Academyof Sciences evolution have also been discussed in terms of ethical (NAS) emphasized the need to pose such questions at responsibilities. As a 'result of the Supreme Court patent an early stage in the developmentof new technology. decision, additional concern about the ethical implica- The NAS report stressed that, in decision-making. on tions of private ownership of living organisms has been voiced by many individuals and groups, includingthe °technology, a wide range of human values and.concerns should be considered, policy options should be pre- National'Council'of Churches." seryed, and efforts to reduce uncertainties should precede Recent accounts in the scientific and popular press university or accompany decisions. The reportcalled for favoring have called attention to the ethical decisions technological projects or developments that leave max- biologists are now facing because of possible conflicts with industry. imum room for maneuver and noted that"the reversi- of interest arising from their involvement Recombinant DNA 439 . Reports of demonstrated or alleged violations of the NIH of the aspects of the life of science and the-socialsystem*, guidelines by a few researchers have also highlighted the of science that encourage or inhibita scientist to develop ethical problems encountered under a system of self- an awareness of the ethical dimensions of research and regulation where the principal. investigator has primary the related responsibility of the researcher.At the same, responsibility for ensuring that safe experimental pro- time, we should urge scientists and nonscientiststo N- cedures are followed. 3Y plore these issues together,. in an effort torestore com- The interest .in these issues among the pub c and munication and confidence. within the scientific community provides an opportunity for serious, positive discussion. Biologists have a good record of concern about the ethical aspects of their work. Many bioldlkists recognize that their work touches on deep human values and has important effects on society. CONCLUSION Because of their special knowledge they can anticipate New applications of molecular geneticstre rapidly and identify possible problems related to their work at changing the relations between science,government and_ an early stage, and participate with other groups to help industry in a research field leading the starch fsirnew make choices in accordance with publicly discussed ethi: knowledge about fundamental lifeprocesses. Recom- cal and value systems. Many of the leading genetic re- binant DNA is only one of severalnew techniques de- searchers have stated their awareness of the need to help veloped during the past decade which haveenormously initiate public discussion of such issues when the time enhanced the scope and power of moleculargenetics. seen4appropriate. To establish and maintain public con- Industrial and medical applicationsin this had are de- fidence in their credibility and social responsibility, sci- veloping at a remarkably fast 4 pace and will have in- entists must be among the.first to speak out. However, creasingly impprtant effects on the scientific community, some scientists denigrate those who first warned against the universities, and the public. The currentproblems , potential hazards of DNA research. In addition, several generated by the stunningsuccess of this basic research of the biologists who originally expressed concern have field must be addressed) Issues involving safety, ethical publicly recanted. Attitudes of this kind may discourage choices, and social and economic impactare intertwined younger colleagues from exercising their responsibilities with problems relating to patterns ofgovernment support as scientists.. for basic research, the role of the universities, andthe Biologists in the 1980s face issued that pose special social organization and value system of the scientific problems for their own prof sional rules, for ethical community. A main thrust of policy in this field should standards, and for their relnships to the public. A be to help, define the roles and responsibilitiesof sci- vigorous effort should be made to encourage working entists and the public in efforts to anticipate andshape scientists to consider these problems. Studies are needed change, rather than merely reacting to it. 4 NOTES AND REFERENCES 4. John Abelson, "A Revolution in Biology," Sciince. Vol. 209 (19 September 1980), pp. 1319-21. This article introducesan entire issue of Science magazine devoted to technical reportson the impact 1 Quoted ItiiTerry Davidson, "DNA Meets the Public," Somerville : of recombinant DNA techniques on fundamental knowledge ofthe Journal (15 January 1981), p 1. structure, function, expression, and regulation of genes. - 2. "Harvard Rejects Role in DNA Company," The Harvard Crimson 5. Useful sources for growth ofIthe field are the "NIH Registered (18 November1210) 0 1The company subsequently was established Recombinant DNA Projects" monthly computer printouts compiledby as the Genetics Institute and sought to set up operations in Somerville, NIH. Because of recent revisions in the NIH guidelines, much of the Massachusetts.. After the city's public hearing on the issue in January recombinant DNA research supported by NIH is no longer registered 1981, the firm withdrew its application and subsequently attempted to and is not included in current reports. establish a laboratory in Boston, provoking public hearings there as 6. Estimate provided by the Environmental Protection Agency. well The major scientific figure in Genetics Institute is currently head 7. The Federal Register, and the Recombinant_DNA_Technical But of Harvard's department of biochemistry and molecular biology. letin published by NIH, provide docume?1%iton of the changesin the 3 Parts of the historical summary in this section parallel the account guidelines, as do the minutes of the NIH Recombinant DNA Advisory presented in Charles Weiner, "Historical Perspectives on the Recom- Comnimee. .. z binant DNA Controversy," in Reyombinant DNA and Genetic Exper- 8. The meeting of IBC chairpersons was held on 2425 Nov. 1980 imentation, edited by Joan Wigan and W.J. Whelan (New York: in Washington, D.C. An account is given in the Pharmaceutical Man- , Pergamon Press, 1979), pp 281-87 Archival source materials on the ufacturers Association Newsletter (1 December 1980), p. 5, anda full controversy over risks are available for study in the Recombinant DNA report has been prepared by NIH for the Recombinant DNA Advisory History Collection at the Institute Archives,'Massachusetts Institute of Committee. Technology For a description of the collection see Charles Weiner, 9. U.S. Gate, Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transpor- - "The Recombinant DNA Controversy: Archival and Oral History Re- tation, Industrial Applications of Recombinant DKIA Techniques, hear-1 sources," Science, Technology and Human Values (January 1979), pp. ings before the Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space, 20 17 -19. ., May 1980. 440AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK t' (18 November'1980), p. 1 10. Risk assessments that were particular!), influential the 26.Harvard Crimson FalmouthWorkshopin June 1977 (proceedingspublishedas a special 27. Itud 28. Quoted in Eliot Marshall, "WillBioCominerce Ravage Bio- volume ofJournal of Infectious Disease,vol _13 [May 19781. Sher- vol. 210 (5 December 1980), p, 1103 wood Gorbach, editor); the Ascot Workshop in January 1978(Federal medicine"Science, S'enator Gaylord Nelson, 15 (28 July 19781, part 4, app. E) andrhe Rowe-Martin exper- 29 Letter from Joshua Lederberg to Register Cloning by Pnis5 Con- iment (Mark A. Israel, Hardy W.ChantWallace P.'Rowe. and Mal- June 1978, quotein Andreopoulos. "Gene colm A Martin, "Molecular Cloning of Polyoma Virus DNA inEsch- ference,"New England Journal of Medicine 39 U S. House of Representatives. Committee onScienceand erichia Coll:Plasmid Vector System."Science,vol 203 [2 March Astronputics. Technology: Processes of Assessment andChoice, Report. andHardy W.Chan,Mark A., grad. Claude F. 19791, pp. 883-87; (Washington, D C July 1969/F' Garon, Wallace P. Rowe. and Malcolm A. Martin, "Molecular Cloning of the National Academy of Sciences tAS report was discussed in the context' of re- of POlyoma Vitus DNA."Sciehce,vol 203 [2 March 1979]. pp pp. 32, 34. 35. The , combmantDNA issu in 1978 by Susan Wright (secbibliography). , 887-92). Genetic Engineering, Human 11. Barbara Rosenberg and Lee Simon, "Recombinant DNA Have 31. Congressional Research Service, Issues, Bio- Recent Experiments Assessed All the Risks,"Nature,vol 282 (20-27 Genetics, and Cell Biology. Eyolution of Technological Prepared fortheSubcommittee December 1979), pp. 773-74; Stuart Newman, "Tumbr Virus 1INA technology (Supplemental Report Ill) Technology of the Committee on Science Hazards No Longer Speculative,"Nature,vol. 281 (20 September on Science. Research, and (August 1980) 1979), p 176. DiscUssions of risk issestcent by the RAC are sum- and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives 32. Minutes, Meeting No. 4. 1.5-16 September 1980.President's marized in the minutes of its meetings. Commission for the Study of Ethical Problems in Medicineand 12. NIH, "Program to Assess Risks of Repombinant DNA Research Biomedical and Behavioral Research. RichardRoblin, "Human Ge- Proposed First Annual Update."federal Register(17 September netic Therapy. Outlook and Apprehensions." inHealth Handbook, 1980, part 2, George CChacko. editor (New York Elsevier-NorthHolland Pub- 13. Statements at hearing of the Cambridge BiohazardCommittee, 103-14. "Ethical Issues in the Biologic'al Manip- 28 Oct 1980 lishing. 1979),epp Faith and Science in an Unjust World Reportof 14. Proceedings of these hearings are av ?ilable inNational Institutes ulation of Life."-in the World Council of Churches' Conference onFaith, Science atia^the of Health, Rec.pmbinant DNA Research,Documents Relating to "NIH 1979. vol 2, Paul Atrecht, editor (Geneva.World Coun- Guidelines for Research Involving Recombinant DNA Molecules," _vol. Fittu7e, is,i1T, 1 (August 1976), vol. 2 (March 1978) cil of churches), pp. ta-68 of hearings on ethical problems in the biomedicalset- 15 The guidelines pow state that at least 20 percent of themembers' . A series ences scheduled for spring 1981 bythe Subcomniptee on Investigations of the RAC shall be knowledgeable ,inapplicable law, standards of Science andTechnology, .pfofessional conduct and practice. public attitudes, the environment. and 0 ersight of the House Committee on university public health, occupational health, or relate'd fields will focus on *.daka 'falsification, commercial pressures on of genetic engineering, and fetal research 16. Attendance at RAC meetings is recorded in the Minutes ofthe scientists, social )in1pact committee. ° 17. Among the few detailed evaluations are RaeGoodell. "Public Involvement in the DNA Controversy: The Case of Cambridge,Mas- ti sachusetts,"Science, Technology and Human Valet(Spring1979), BIBLIOGRAPHY pp". 36-43; and Sheldpn Krimsky. "A Citiwn Court ithe Recombinant ,ry DNADebate,". Bulletin of the Atomic Sdknusts (tober 1978), pp. 37-43. RECOMBINANT DNATONTROVERSY Columbia Journalism Review 18 Rae Goodell, "The Gene Craze.°' Bareikis, Robert P . ed.Science and the PublicInter;,st Reionibinant (November-December 1980). pp 41-45. Spyros Andreokulos. "Gene DNA ResearchBloomington The Poynter Center, 1978, New England Journal of Medicine(27 Cloning by Press Conference," Cooke, Robert.Improving on Nature. The Bravegew World of Genetic March,1980). pp 743-46. Engineering.New York: Quadrangle/The New York Times Book Strickland, Politics, Science and Dread Disease. A 19 Stephen P. Co.. 1977. (Cambridge. Harvard Short History of U.S Medical Research Policy Goodell, Rae S "Public Involvement in the DNAControversy' The University Press, 1972). See also Strickland,Research and the Health Case of Cambridge, Massachusetts."Science. Technology and Hu- (Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath and Co.. 1978) of dinericans man Values,Spring 1979, pp 36-43 20. Andreopoulos, "Gene Cloning by PressConference,"New Eng- 4 Goodfield, June.Playing God: Genetic Engineering and the Manip- landJourtilll of Medicine. . ulation of Life.New York: Random House, 1977. 21. Supreme Court of the United States,Diamond, Commissioner Grobstem, Clifford.A Double Image of the Double Helix TheRev,-" of Patents and Trademarks v. Chakrabarty.No 79-136. Argued 17 combinant-DNA Debate.San Francisco: W.H. Freeman and Co.. March 1980, decided 16 June 1980. id theHastings Center 1979. 22. Among the responses were several articles Holton. Gerald, and Robert S. Monson, edsLimits of Scientific In- Oct. 1980: Lee Ehrman and Joe Grossfield,"What Is Natural, Report, quiry.New York: W.W. Norton and Co., 1979. What Is Not?" pp. 10-11; Key Dismukes,"Life Is Patently not Hutton, Richard.Bto-Revolution DNA and the Ethics of Man-Made Human-Made," pp.11-12; and Harold P. Green,"Chakrabarty: Life.New York. New American Library, 1978.. Tempest in a Test Tube," pp. 12213. Seealso Harold J. Morowitz, Jackson, David A. and Stephen P. Stich, eds.The Recombinant DNA ':Reducing Life to Physics,"New YorkZotes(23 June 1980), op-ed Debate.Englewood Cliffs, NtJ.. Prentice-Hall, Inc 1979. page. . KnmskY, Sheldon. "Regulating Recombinant DNA Research."In Prizes,"Trends in Biochemical 23. Philip Siekevitz, "Of Patents and Controversy: Politics of Technical Decisions,edited by Dorothy, 5 (September 1980), pp. vt, Sciences, vol. Nelkm. Beverly Hills, Ca.: Sage Publications, 1979, pp.227-53. 24. "Memo Spells Out Technology TrattsferPolicies,"Harvard Lappe, Marc, and Robeit S:Morison. eds.Ethical and ScientificIssues Gazette(31 Octobei 1980), pp. 4-5. New PosedbyHuman Uses of Molecu?ar Genetics. Annals of the 25. Letter to the editor from Richard C.Cewontin,Harvard Crimson York Academy of Sciences,vol. 265. New York: The New York (16 November 1980); "Profit-andLosses-at Harvard," editorial, Academy of Sciences, 1976. New York Times(13 November 1980), p. A34. Recombinant DNA 441 Lear, John Rectimbinunt DNA The Untold Story New York. Crown Etta, Charles J. "Genentech Inc.'s laitial Offenng Will Provide Chance Publisheys, 1978 toInvest in Nascent Genetic Research." Wall Street Journal. 27 Morgan. Joan, and W.J. Whelan. eds. Recombinant DNA and Genetic Aug. 1980, p. 37 Experimentation, New York: Pergamon Press. Ltd.. 1979. - Fox, Jeffrey. "Genetic Engineering Industry Emerges." Chemical and National Institines of Health. Recombinant DNA Research. Documents Engineering News, 17 March 1980, pp. 15-22 Relating to "NIH Quidelines for Research Involving Recombinant Greenhouse. Linda "Science May Patent New Forms of Life, Justices DNA Molecider , voll.hAug. 1976). vol. 2 (March°1978), vol. Rule, 5 to 4." New York Times, I7 June 1980, p. *1 3 (Sept 1978), vol 4 (Dec. 1978), and vol. 5 (March 1980). Hubbard, William, "The Industrial Potential of Recombmant DNA Research with Recombinant DNA. Washington, D.0 . National Acad- Technology, Some Specific Applications." Vital Speeches of the emy,of Sciences, 1977 Day, vol 45 (15 March 1980), pp. 342-47. Richards. John:ed Recombinant DNA Science, Ethics, and Politics. "insulin Research Debate on DNA Guidelines." New York Times, 29 New York Academic Press, 1978. June 1979, p A18. Rifkin. Jeremy, and Ted Howard Who Should Play God' New York..,\ Knox, Richard A. "Moving Things from 'Lab to rfpplieat ion'. " Boston Delacorte Press. 1977 Globe, 17 July 1980. Rogers. Michael Biohazard New York. Alfred A Knopf. 1977 Knmsky, Sheldon. and David Baltimore (dialogue). "The Ties That Scott, W A , and R A Werner. eds. Molecular Cloning of Recom- Bind or Benefit " Nature, vol 283 (10 Jan. 1980), pp. 130-31. binant DNA. New Y6rk: Academic Press, 1977. . "New Hope for Going to Market with DNA." Business Week, 24 Southern California Law ReviewlSymposium on Biotechnology and the Sept. 1979, pp 64-68. Law' Recombrnant DNA and the Control of Scientific Research. vol. "New Row About Society in Genetic Engineering," New Scientist, 51. no. 6 (Sept. 1978),... 17 July 1980, p 181 Swazey. Judith P . James R Sorenson, and Cynthia B Wong "Risks Newyork. Peter. "Engineered E. coh Produce Interferon Nature, and Benepts. Rights and Responsibilities: A History of the Recom- vol 283 (24 Jan 1980), p. 323 binant DNA Research-Controversy In Southern California Law "OSHA Looks at Occupational Regulations for Recombinant DNA ReviewlSymposium of Biotechnology and the Law Recombinant Use " Nature, vol 1183 Feb 1980), p. 512 DNA and the Control of Scientific Research, vol51, no 6 (Sept Parisi, Anthony. "Industry of Life. The Birth of the Gene Machine." 1978). pp. 1019-78 New York Timei, 29 June 1980. sec3, pp. L 4. Wade, Nicholas The Ultimate Experiment Man-Made Evolution New Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association '.:Recombinant DNA Hear- York Walker and Co., 1977, rev1979. ings: You've Come a Long Way, Baby." PMA Newsletter, vol. 22 Wnght, Susan. "Molecular Politics in Great Britain and the United 426 May 1980), pp. 1-2. States The Development of Policy for Recombinant DNA Tech- "Supreme Court DNA Patent Decision Not Necessarily the nology In Southeerrertitfornia Law. ReviewlSymposium on Bio- Last Word." PMA Newsletter. vol. 22, no. 25 (23 June 1980). technology and the Law Recombinant DNA and the Control of, Randal, Judith. "OK Patents on Man-Made Life Forms." New York Scientific Research. vol. 51, no 6 (Sept. 1978) pp. 13834434. Daily News. 17 June 1980. p. 1. Saltus, Richard "Bay Area Research Teams in Genetic Photo-Finish INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS OF RECOMBINANT DNA San Francisco Examiner, II July 1979. Andreopoulog, Spyros -Gene Cloning by Press Conference New Schmeck, Harold M. "Interferon's Structure Revealed in Study "New England Journal of Medicine, vol 302. no. 13 (27 March I980), York Times. 3 June 1980. p 63. pp 743-46. Wade, Nicholas. "The Business of Science." Science, vol. 207 (I Boorstein, Robert 0. "Harvard May Form Group to Develop Lab Feb. 1980). p. 507. Findings " The Harvard Criesson, vol 171, no. 102 (29 July 1980). . '`Cloning Gold Rush Turns Basic Biology into Big Business p 1. ,sie; Science, vol. 208 (16 May 1980), pp. 688-93. Bylinsky, Gene "DNA Can Build Companies, loo " Fortune, 16 . "Recombinant DNA. Warming Up for Big Payoff." Science, June 1980, pp. 144-53 vol. 206 (9 Nov. 1979), pp 663-65. Chakrabarty, A M. "Which Way Genetic Engineering?" Industrial . New Horse May Lead interferon Race " Science, vol. 208 Research, Jan. 1976, pp. 45-50. (27 June 1980), p. 1441. Czarnecki, Mark "New Life for Sale. Mass-Produced Life Goes to "Where Genetic Engineering Will Change Industry." Business Week, Market." illacLean's, 16 June 1980, pp. 41-49., 22 Oct. 1979, pp. 160-72. Dickson, David "How Safe Will Biobusiness Be?" Nature, vol. 283 WilfordJohn Noble. "Human Growth Hormone Is Produced in Lab2 (10 Jan. 1980), pp. 126-27. oratory."' New York Times, 17 July 1979, p. C1. I f. "Inventorship Dispute Stalls DNA Patent Application. Na- Williamson, Bob. "Biologists Get Their Genes Twisted." 14wSci- ture, vol. 284 (3 April 1980). p. 388. entist, 20-27 Dec 1979. pp. 12-13. "Patenting Living Organisms-How to Beat the Bug-Rus- "A Wonder Drug in the Making." Business Week, no 2612 (19 Nov. tlers." Naiure. vol. 283 (10 Jan. 1980), pp. 128-29. 1979), pp. 71-74. a "Registration Proposed for Private DNA Research." Nature, Yanchinski, Stephanie. "Microbes at Work. Is the Price Too High?" vol. 283 (24 Jan. 1980), p. 323. New Scientist, 3 July 1980,p. 12. "U S Drug Companies Push for Changes in Recombinant ;'Patenting Life Is No Guarantee of Success." New Scientist, DNA Guidelines." Nature. vol. 278 (29 March 1979), pp. 385-86, 26 June 1980, p. 373. z. 1 O 41 I Choosing Our Pleasuresarid Our Poisons: Risk Assessment for the1980s William W. Lowrance* .04 INTRODUCTION disproportionate with the relative social burden Of the It only takes, a few highly charged terms to evoke the hazards. risk-assessment milieu of the past decade: DDT, the Pill, Public apprehensiveness has a number of causes. Is saccharin, "Tris," asbestos, nuclear waste, Three Mile life becoming riskier? Not in any simplesense. As the Island, smoking, black lung, Clean. Air Act, Delaney next section of this report will demonstrate, many clas- clause, recombinant-DNA, 2,4,5-T, "Reserve Mining sical scourges have been conquered; infants geta health- ier start in life; and on average people live longer lives 'versus EPA," Teton Dam, DC-10.... This rash' of acddents, disruptions and disputes has than ever before. The historical record of floods hur- left the public and its leaders fearful that the wqrld is ricanes, typhoons, tornadoes, earthquakes, and othei awfully risky, and that although science can raisewarn- geophysical disasters shows a relatively constant pattern ings, when crucial decisions have to be made science of occurrence over the centuries.' (It is worth noticing, backs away in uncertaintyArther, there is a feeling that however, that migration is setting more potential victims as with medical cattrepsy, in which the simultaneous in the path of hurricanes in the Gulf states andon top firing of too many nerves draws the body intospasms, of seismic faults in California.) What we are menaced the bodylpolitic has been drawminto a kind of regulatory by now are enormous increases in the physical and tem- catalepsy by too many health scares, too many consumer poral scale .and complexity of sociotechnical hazards warnings, too many environmental lawsuits, toomany Of these, the.stid-st threatening are risks having row- bans, too many reversals. A related complaint is thatwe probability and high - consequence, such as genetic disaster, are afflicted with..excessive government intervention, nuclear war,,, and global climate change. Too, alarm often of a naive, or trifling, ormaysaying,sort. Among arises, in anlmost paradoxical sense, because science professionaanalysts. as well as members of the public has become so much better at detecting traces of chemi- there is a conviction that many risk-reduction efforts are cals and rare viruses, and at identifying birth defects, diseases, and mental stress. Often we know enough to 'Senior Fellow and Director. Life Sciences arid*Pubhc Policy Program. The Rockefeller worry, Nt?t enough to be able to ameliorate the threat. Univenity, New York, New York Warnings and accusations are amplified by the pijblic 444AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK media, often with unseemly haste.Worse, scientific 100 hunches are announced as- -scientific fact, only to have to be,withdrawn later. With all this,it would be sur- 90 prising if the public's sensibilities were not battered. 80 Risk- related instabilities and confrontations afflicting 'industry and governance stem as much from problems 10 of societal attitude anddecisioli=daking procedure as from deficiencies of technical analysis -and performance. 60 This essay will argue that assessment will 6e improved: if hazards are characterized explicitly, so they can be 50 faced; if risk-aversion efforts are griented to agreed-upon 0_ societal goals; if comparative approaches aie taken that 40 provide perspective, reveal the relative effectiveness of programs, and lead to generation of stable,defensible 30 priorities; and if-attempts are always made to weigh risks 20 in appropriate context with benefits and costs. The paper will review some institutional efforts, problems or public 10 perception, challenges to scientific integrity and author- ity, and a list of new and underattended hazards. It will 0 1940 1960 1970 1977 conclude with recommendations. 1900 1920 EN Tuberculosis EZ1 Major canhovascula diseases THE EVOLUTION OFMORTAL AFFLICTIONS Influenza and pneumonia n All other causes In his '1803 Essay on population Thomas Malthus ob- r_=1 Cancer slightest served of Jenner's new vaccine: "I have not the Figure I.Deaths from Selected Causes as ai(rcent of AU Deaths. doubt that if the introduction of cowpox should extirpate United State's tbp smallpox, we shall find...increased mortality of People 1979 some other disease:4' This generalexpectation holds true Source U S Surgeon General. today' if in addition to disease we include noninfectious threats. The communicable diseases of smallpox,diph- theria, typhus, cholera, tuberculosis, and polio have been In a recent analysis of the prospectsfor saving lives conquered. So have scurvy, pellagra, and other /nutri- in this country, James Vaupel developed the conceptof tional deficiency diseases. Infant mortality' hasdropped "early deaths." (The definitionalpioblem is fully treated dranatically. As the toll from these causes has lessened,, in his report; for short, early death can be taken torefer mortality has shifted toward degenerative diseasesno- to death before the age of 65.) Vaupelconcluded:4 tably .heart disease and cancerwhich are attributable either to personal life style or tocausative agents in the The statistics indicate that the aggregate social environment. .While the causes of death have changed, losses due to death are largely attributable to early death and that the losses due to early death are the averaitage of onset of fatal illness has movedhigher. immense, that the early dead suffer an egregious Life span has lengthened. Put crudely, we die nowof inequality in life-chances compared with those who stroke and cancer in part because we live long enough die in old age, and that non-whites, the poor, and to. males suffer dispropdrtionately from early death. For the United States these mortality trends are sum- Furthermore, statistics on the leading causes of death and statistics comparing non-whites and itarized in Figure 1.2 whites,-males_andiemales,_ current mortality with Thus at present irithbthited-Stafalheleading cause mortality earlier in this country, and the United of death is heart disease, followed by cancer. The rest States with Sweden and other countries suggest that of mortality is accounted for by other diseasesand by early deaths could be significantly decreased. accidents,t, homicide, and natural disastese (inthat Extrapolation of life expectancy data has led to another order).' Within these gross statistics, however, thereis great provocative observation about survival! Some analysts species is approaching a variability by age and socioeconomic stabs: motor ve- now speculate that the human Figure hicles and other accidents kill the most childrenunder "natural" life span !Unit of about 85 years. in- 14; for black 'males between the ages of 15 and 24Komi- 2, the survive curve can, be seen to be becoming creasingly "rectangular" and approaching a limit of 85 cide is the largest threat; cirrhosis of the liver isthh . Fries to predit that fourth leading cause of death for people between 25arnd years. Such curves have led James "the number of very old persons will not increase, that 64. V Risk Assessment445 scientific understanding and the prospect of taking pre- ventative action, we would be more fatalistic about le- gionnaires disease and toxic shock Syndrome. If we had not established the hurricane warning network and the national air traffic control system, we would not have to argue about their budgets. As Howard Raiffa made the central analytical point recently in congressional hearings,6 We must not pay attention to those voices thatsay one life is just as precious as 100 lives, or that no amount of money is as important as saving one life. Numbers do count. Such rhetoric leads to emo- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 tional, irrational inefficiencies and when life isat stake we should be extremely careful lest we fail AGE to save lives that could have easily been saved with the same resources, or lest we force our disadvan- Figure 2 The Increasingly Rectangular Survival Curve. taged poor to spend money that they can ill afford in order to gain a measure of safety that they don't Source Jews Fnes, Ne. England Journal of Medi< me soliO3 1 19801 ppI 10 35 want in .comparison to their other more pressing %needs. II the average period of diniinished physical vigor will de- To proceed in dealing with risks without makingcom- crease, that chionic disease will occupy a smaller pro- parigons, both of import of threats and of marginal nsk- portion of the typical life span, and that the need for reduction effectiveness (and cost-effectiveness) of public Medical care °in later life will decrease."' Even if the programs, makes little sense. Yet surprisinglj, little so- limit is inching upward,, itis doing so at a low and phisticated comparative work has been dogs decreasing rate, so the implications Fries draws shoqld In studies meant to be illustrative, Bernard Cohen, remain-valid within the policy-relevant time frame. Richard Wilson, and others have assembled catalogues Surely, .coming to terms with these trends will lead of commpn risks. Cohen has ckulategieffects from dif- us as a society to strive less to fend oft full lifetime ferent hazards upon life expectancy (for,people atspec- mortality. and to attend more to illness, accidents, 'and ified ages). He ends that cigarette smoking reduces U,S. to quality dt4 life. Among occupational diseases de- male life expectancy by six years on average. Being 30 manding attention, for instance, are the pneuhioconioses. percent overweight reduces lifeexpectancy by about four black lung disease, asbestosis, and brown lung (textile years. Motor vehicle accidents cut off 207 days. And dust) disease; among the most debilitating, lingering, assuming that all U.S. electricity came froth nuclear and painful conditions, arthritis, emphysema, and aller- power and that the unoptimistic risk estimates published gies; among "life style" diseases, cirrhosis of the liver by the Union of Concerned Scientists are correct,.duclear and the venereal diseases. accidents would claim two dayfgau4he life ofan av- erage citizen.' Regrettably, the Cohen and Wilson cal- culations are based on very unreliable data, fail to take v into account indirect effects, and are flawed innumerous IMPROVEMENTSIN ASSESSMENT ways. Their most valuable lesse has bee ttiNdiustrate how difficult it is to reduce complex_social pnomefia, such as cigarette smoking and nuclear power generation, BECOMING MORE COMPARATIVE to single scalar risk rankings. , . Asa society we find Ourselves, relative to all previous Stimulated in part-by_the-early contributions of Chaun- human conOontation with mortal risk, in the enviable cey Starr, over the last decade assessors have attempted but emotionally unsettling situation of living longer and to compare tecknblogical hazard to natural hazard.' For healthier lives than ever before; of not having to remain example, the so-called "Rasmussen Repotr attempted igndrant and vaguely apprehensive of hazards, but pf,to compare nuclei reactor accident risks to those of underslanding many of their causes, likelihoods, and meteorite impacts and otherotural hazards in order to effects; and ,of having now accumulated substantial' ex- provide some intuitive, grounding.9 The difficulty is that perience in predicting, assessing, reducing, buffering, reliable numbers are hard to compute, and since polls and redressing harm. Blissfiness is prevented by i,vr have shown that most people, including scientists, do having 'too many options. If we still lived only on the not have a very accurate intuitive sense of the likelihood margin of survival, we would not have the luxury of and magnitude of natural hazards, such groundingmay worrying about microwaves and halt dryers. If we lacked not be very useful anywayi° C . 446AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK The 'next logical step has been to try.tel compare the relative impacts various risk-reduction measures make on longevity. Shan Pou Tsai andcolleagues, for. ex- CC ample, have examined the question of what gaihs in life CC expectancy would result if certainmajordhoses of death were partially eliminated. Theycalculated that for a new-. 1- torn child, reduction of 'cardiovascular 'disease by 30 6,1 percent nationally would add 1.98 years to life expect- 0 1 ancy at birth; 30 percentreduction ofmatighanucancers ";, would add 0.71 years; and 30 percent reductionpfsmotor (.2 vehicle accidents would add 0.21 years. ff,slich 30 per cc!, cent causative reduction were to exert effect during the working years 15 to 60, there would be-gains of 1.43 ,, years (cardiovascular), 0.26 years (canccer),and 0.14 years (motor vehiallt accidents). "Evenwith a scientific 10 100 1000 breakthro in combating these causes of death," the authors tiuded, "it appears taLfuture gains in 'fife' YEARLY DEATH'S CRUDE MORTALITY RATE expectancies forthe.. working will not be 100.000 POPULATION spectacular. "'. .. Richard Schwing has published similar illustrative CATEG1)RY calculations of longevity extension. His findings for 11) Respiratory tuberculosis (7) Certain degenerati diseases American males, shown in Figure 3, chart thelongevity' (nephritis. cirrhosis, sfiver. increases and crude mortality late decreases that would (2) Other infectious and parasitic ulcers of stomach an occur if certain causes of death wereeliminated. It is disemes duodenum. diabetes) obvious that furthercampkgns against tuberculosis Certain disease of planc would help few men and add only weeks of life for..--131 Malignant and benign (9) neoplasms Americin men on average, whereas reduction of heart (10) Motor vehicle accidents disease would add years of life for a great many men12 (4) Cardiovascular diseases ScWing has gone on then, as-others have, to compare (11) Other accidents and ' the extent to which various risk -reduction measures (5) Influenza, pneumonia, violence such as requiring that automobiles be Milt with energy- bronchitis 161' Diarrhea. gastritis. enteritis (12) All other and unknown causes absorbing steering columns,penetratid94esistant wind-4 shields, or dual brake systemsextend longevity, and Figure 3.Increased Longevity from Elimination pfHaZaPt3s. for U S to compare their cost-effectiveness (indollars cost ,per Males. pers511-year of life preserved). Source, Richard Schwmg, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. vol.13 (1979). 110 Obviously the outcome of comparisons is heavily de- pp 333-45, P pendent on the wary the boundaries of comparison are set. Nowhere has this been betterillustratedthan in recent attempts,,such as the studies by the NAS Committee on situations as Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES) and sessment has been demonstrated in such 15 by Robert Inhaber,,both of wairtreompared competing that in Britain at Canvey Island. Within an area of Thames near London energycycles.alf4In caldulating the risks of coal, do square miles on that island'in the 014e count deaths from trait wrecks, air pollution, of are oil refineries, petroleum tanks,ammonia and hydro- release of radioactive radon from the burning fuel?In gen fluoride plants, and aliquefied.natural gas facility. assessiRg_nuclear_power, do we include terrorist abuse, When a fetv years ago controversy arose as towhether or nuclear weapons proliferation?In appraising solar Canvey's 33,000 people were exposed to unusually high conducted. sources, do we inchide health effects on copperand glass risks, a thorough government inquiry was resolution that workers? There is no avoiding such analyses. The prob- Upon deliberation the residents passed a ui{til the overall in- lem is to learn how to perform them with technical so- no further constgetion be accepted phistication and to take` due account of all relevant social ciustrialliccident risk on the island had been reduced to considerations. Overreaching is hard to avoid.. The con- the average level for the United Kingdom. Butthey did solation of most such ambitious studies has been that the not demand that their neighborhoodbe risk-free.° process. of assessment hasitself sharpened the 'social That the same toleration for Comparative approaches debate and cies* technical-analytic needs. holds in the United Motes is evident in industrial areas, whert residents are de- That thgeneral public is sophisticated enough to un- such -as Ohio and New Jersey, manding cleanup- butavt closing of industries.Similar derstand endorse the idea of comparative risk as"- . . %* A Risk Assessment447 moderation led the/Voters- of Maine, an env rontnentally ment of the Clean Air Actthere has been a tendency sensitive state that has lad to deal with colwinters but to require that an upper bound on the estimated actual also with proposals of supertanker ports, itheir 1980 haiar' d be stated. referendum to vole against measures that oind We'd* had the effect of being more'restrictive of nuc ear power. tr SPECIFYING RISK MANAGEMENT GOALS - If this country is to move,e toward more'rational." apportionment of risk-reduction and -masa ment ef- Although industrial and legislative programs usuallyop- . forts, smust assure ourselves that there isasonable erateunder guidelines ,mandating "reduction of harm" paratil between the burden, in whgever to ,of par- or "protection of consumers," the degree of reduction ticular risks and the-avidity.with which we deft d against or protection is often not specified (except when absolute them, and that Programs take into considerati n age of protection is called for, which, usually being impossible, onset of harm, degree of debilitation, longevity erosion, simply amounto defaulting). Goal ambiguities may and cost-effectivenes's of ameliorative program. Before remain even ,wgn program objectives are spefled out. any of this can be done, hazards have'to be st ted ex- Different goals may come into cpnflict: reducing use of plicitly and goals of hazqd reduction agreed un. asbestos insulation, in'order to protect miners and in- . *-.4ulatibn installers, may have thaeffect of increasing fire -hazard in buildings; forbidding black airmen who are FACING HAZARDS EXPLICITVZ sic*le-cell-trait-carriers to -serve. as Air Force pilots, to CoMparlive approachesare necessarily more q antita- avoid the possibility of their becoming functionally im- tive, and they tend to force the revelation of Ipecific paired under emergency oxygen loss, conflicts with equal consequences. As it dawns on social consciousn ss that opportunity goals. . even strict protection inevitably admits some r sidual Recognizing that better guidance must be developed harm, even if only by inducing exposure to theazartis for choosing among the many available but costly mar- of alternatives, little by little public officials have roved ginal improvements in technical safeguards, the iAdvi- toward explicitness. sory Committee on Reactor Safeguard" orihe Nuclear One of the most widely discussed test cases is that of Regulatory Commission (NRC) has urged the NRC to DES (diethylstilbestrol, the growth hormone sorni times consider establishing "quantitative safety goals for over- fed to beef cattle). The Food and Ding Administration all safety of nuclear power reactors." These goals might (FDA) has formally proposed to allow beef producers specify, for instance, physical performance criteria , to use this putatively carcirogenic but economically im- ("leaking of 10 'percent of noble gas inventory from portant agent if they remove it from feed sufficiently in reactor core into primary coolant no more than once in advance of slaughter that residual DES 'in marketed beef 200 reactor years") or limits on health risk ("no more does not exceed a Tecified extremely low concentration. than one accident death per 1000 megawatts of electricity In its proposal theDA argue4,that "the acceptab e risk generated "). -The. Advisory Committee recently pub- levet should (1) not significantly increaser the Iuman lished An Approach to Quantitative Safety Goals for cancer risk and, (2) subject to that constraint, be as high Nuclear Power Plants, and the Commission has set in as possible in order to permit the use of carcingenic motion a "plan for development and articulation of INIRC animal drugs and food- additives as decreed byCon - safety objectives." Goals' in this case include far more gress....A risk level of 1 in 1 million over a lietime than the goal of generating economically competitive meets these criteria better than does any other thatwould electricity. differ significantly from it." The agency noted thn fur- A recent Rand Corporation study for the Department ther reduction "would not significantly increase human of Energy (D0), Issues and Mblems in Inferringa 4 proteaton from cancer."16 This and similar prosals Level of Acceptable Risk, lists types of risk-reduction are predicated on a conviction that the underyi g car- goals that can be considered, such as minimitationlf Amgen assessments are worst-possible-case over- maximum accident consequences; inimization of estimates of human risk. The DES standard is stil under probability of most probable accident; and so on. After discussion'. In March 1980 FDA Commissioneroyan describing ways in which goal 6oices can make a dif- stated thit.hetwould favor amending the food ditives ference to programs, the report urges that "DOE and laws so that the chemicals' test* out under t e. level 'other agencies need to be self-aware in specifying risk- of one-chance-in-a-million would be permitt d (the reductiodgoals, as well as in relatingthem to goals of. Delaney clause prohibits even minute tracesf very other agencies and interested rarties,,x-d understanding weakly testing carcinogenic additivesa pribitibn their implications the choice of energy altematives."'s nored mostly in the breach, because of its solutist Skeptics may be tempted to dismiss this topic, saying nature that we in this country do not have a consensus on social One by one as cases have developedthe 1 79 Pinto goals. Rebuttal to that too-simple dismissal is evidenced, lawsuit, the national review of earthwork damamend- for example, in the way our medical X-ray protection am. 448 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK - . practices, which are the resultofIre)cadesof reassessment After a decade of concentrating on the negative side and improvement by industry, medicine, and .govern- of the ledger, society is now trying to learn .how to ment, pursue goals: minimization of probability of dam- ineasurei.benefits. The National Academy of SciencoV. age (by decrease in frequency of useof diagnostic 1977 study of ionizing radiation ("BEIR II") struggled X-rays, compensafed kor by more sensitive films), with the issue of how to appraise the benefits of such minimization of potentially irreversible damage to the applications as medical X-rays.19 The Academy's 1979 hiiman gene pool (special protection of gonads); and Food Safety Policy report .analyzed the benefits of sac! minimization of-threat to infants in utero (again, special charin and of food-safety policies regarding mercury, protection. The typically American goal of helping dis- nitrites, and aflatoxin (in peanut butter),2° and its 1980 advantaged citizens underlies special health programs for report, Regulating Pesticides, described the-methods minority groups. The goal of'preserving maximum con- available for estimating marginal gains in crop yield and sumer choice can be seen as a'goal of food quality benefit expected froni a candidate pesticide.'' programs.. Several methods, usually for shorthand referred to as ,Setting goils is not impossible, but settingrealistically "risk-benefit" or "cost-benefit analysis," are available attainable goals is not easy.lt is imperative that programs for constructing a balance sheet of desirable attributes be tailored to goals more precise than "protection of all against undesirable ones. Analysis is thus a.problem of 'Americans against all harm." handicapping what Will happen (the odds of a destruc- tive flood, the probable incidence of a disease) and com- paring quantities that are rarely expressible in common- WEIGHING RISKS IN CONTEXT WITH BENEFITS AND denominator terms (social cost of lives shortened, COSTS benefits of-production, risks of genetic mutation). All dpcisiong, indirectly or directly, rely on judgments With some (few) well defined projects for which goals of the sort Benjamin Franklin referred to as"pl-udential and constraints' are agreed upon by the major affected algebra." Under the Toxic Substances Control Act the parties, for which health and environmentalrisk4rsts, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mui protect and benefits are well kndwn arid understood, only the public aping "unreasonable risk of injury"; under in magnitude but in social distribution, over boththe the stationary-sources provisions of the Clean Air Act near and long term, risk-benefitaccounting has proven it must ensure "an ample margin of safety"; under the itself useful. Under such (rare) circumstances of cer- Safe Drinking Water Act it must protect the public "to tainty, commonsensical estimates as well as moreformal the extent feasible...(taking costs intoconsideration) " analyses derived from operations research are applicable. "Unreasonable," "ample," and "feasible" are not de- The latter tend to be favored by specialists,technical or fined in these laws. For the EPA the question is not otherwise, who have been given a s'pecific task to ac- whether analysis but what ftirm of analysis, taking what complish (the Army Corps of Engineers haspioneered .considerations into, account. For all such risk reduction in their use). The occasional "successful"application regimes the day has passed that benefits and costs could of such techniquesand, one suspects, (-also the'all- be ignored.' ,- embracingring of their titletempts legislators, admin- Every segment' of industrjiand governmentfood, istrators, managers, and judges to call for their use. energy, transportationhas to ask of its decision - making: The griefs of analysis could fill a large set ofbooks. _ Most reviews conclude that such apprdhes arevery Are there waysto bring benefits and costs intod6n- useful for structuring discussidn, but aroAess usefulor sideration along with risks? Do existing policy and foiitlal, legalistic managerial rules allow consideration of all such fact eyen subject to misuse when .granted weight, In their Primer for Policy Analysis Edith Stokey 'tors? Should they? ,, analticharil Zeckhauser warned:2? Which methoilological approaches (cost-beneAtanal- ysis, decision theory, cost - effectivenessanalysis:etc.) . Benefit-cost analysis, is especially vulnerable to are appropriate? misapplication through, carelessness, naivete, or How should secondary, indirect, and intangible effects outright 'deception. The techniques are potentially be brought into consideration? dangerous to the extent that they-convey an aura of Are formal, explicit, published analysesrequired to .precision and objectivity. Logicallythey can be no form the basis of decision, or are they tised asinfor- more precise than the assumptions andvaluations . that they -employ; frequently:, through the' com- mational background only? pounding of errors, they may be less so. Deception definitions, What are the procedural rules by which it quite a different' matter, involving submerged analytic boundaries, and conceptual assumptions are, assumptions, unfairly chosen valuations, 'and piir- established? ef 1misestimates. Bureaucratic agencies, for Should those reviewing a technological option be re- 'expie, have powerful incentives to underestimate quired to review, the attributes of alternatives also? the costs of proposed projects. Any proNure for Risk Assessment 449 making policy choices, from divine guidance to opportunity costs from undue conservativeness in reg- _ computer algorithms, can be manipulated unfairly. ulation of contraceptive and pharmaceutical development. These and othcritics respond to their own complaint by acknowledging hat "prudential algebra" of onelorm or another must be resorted to nevertheless. DEFINING "NEGLIGIBLE" AND "INTOLERABLE," AND SETTING PRIORITIES All analytical approaches. have difficulty with scien- tific uncertainties; with fair and full description of so- A disturbing feature of the 1960s and 1970s was thtt as cietal problems; with predictingallpossible conse- each sector of manufacturing, or municipal governance, quences; with placing a "Price" on human life and or research, or purchasing, found itself having to'con- environmental goods; with taking into account intangi- front risk problems, each had to develop its own ap- bles and amenities in general; anti with assessing the proach and work through hearings, and scientific studies, social costs of opportunities precluded13 A lively theater and economic reviews, and lawsuits, and insurance dis- for this ongoing debate has been the proceedings of the putes. The social learning process was, unavoidably, Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) painful. So were. the disruption and unpredictability on regulation of occupational carcinogens." caused tly the lack of defensible priorities. Industries and A somewhat different approach, "cost-effectiveness agencies found themselves so distracted by disputes over considers atuent station and oompares sensational cases that they could hardly pursue their main how effectively alternatives can achieve stated objec- tasks *even if their charter was to reduce major nsks. tives automobile seatbelts compared to other forms of neither ``major" nor "minor" had been defined. Ex- passive restraint, or kidney transplants compared to di- pressed in a metaphor of the time, smoldering,,parnfires alysis Under the stimulus of cosbcontrol campaigns had to be neglected while brushfires were fought. analysts have developed ways of comparing the relative Chastening has been accomplished. Now the challenge cost-effectiveness of coveting medical screening tech- is to develop ways of keeping priorities clear: to avoidok., niqug and of other medical technologies." Recently the frittering away worry-capital on *very small hazards, to Ist congressional Office of Technology Assessment pub- prohibit unbearably large hazards; and to concentrate . lished a useful report on The Implications of Cost- decision-makinf attention on problems that affect large Effectiveness Analysis on Medical Technology. 26 numbers of people.in important ways. This admonition Concltiding a review for the Administrative Confer- may appear an obvious one, but our failure to protect ence, Michael Baram argued:27 appropriate priorities is just what has set us up for the regulatory "overload" and disproportionateneis we now In practice, regulatory uses of cost-benefit analyses labor under. stifle and obstruct the achieyement of legislated This concern was expressed in the 1980 National health, safety, and environmental goals... Further, Academy of Sciences report, Regulating Pesticides:3° to the extent that economic factors are permissible considerations under enabling statutes, agencies conduct cost-effectiveness analysis, which aids in A serious flaw in the current procediVeis that those determining the least costly means to designated compounds that recee the most publicity or pres-. goals, rather than cdst-benefit analysis, which im- suee-group attention may not necessarily be those properly determines regulatory ends as well as that present the greatest public health4r environ- means. mental hazards. The current procedure does not - provide for a broad comparison of the hazards posed Currently the National +cademy of Sciences is preparing by the large number of registered pesticides." At the same time, outside pressures to regulate a specific a report,' Costs of EnvOronment-Related Health Effects: compound rarely arise from careful evaluation of A Plan for Continuing Stuffy, which should describe risks of alternative pesticides. To the ways of building a base for accounting, in effect, for the extent that external pressures are influential in de- health-cost-effectiveness of environmental controls. termining the orddr in which the [Office of Pesti- There are other risk decision models. Jeffrey Krischer cides Programs] evaluates compounds, the conse- quence may well.be that considerable...k=es are has recently prepared a useful annotated bibliography of devoted to regulation of minor,low-risk ounds applications of decision analysis to health care." One while iinportant high-risk ones remain unreviewed of the more fully developed unorthodox approaches is for periods longer than would otherwise be the case. the libertarian synthesis of ethics and efficacy proposed. by Ronald Howard." The March 1979 report by the National Academy of A concluding note should be that formal analysis is Sciences on Food Safely Policy propOsed that the FDA still helpless to accommodate many major effects! the categorize fooas being high, moderate, or low,risk, weapons-proliferation and terrorist risks of the spread of and "apply sere and general constraints only to items civilian nuclei power; the highly touted and ambi-potent" involving thegreatest, most frequent,. and most certain benefits and risks of recombinant-DNA development; the dangers. "3' I 45OAAAS POLICY OUTLOOK Naturally, regulatory agencies do try to apply their to time high-technology projects have been vetoed be- most vigorous attention to the most important issues, but cause their risks were unthinkably high: some macro- their problem is to set protectable priorities (ones that engineering modificationi=tof the environment, and cer- are buffered from sporaAic undermining) so that all par- tainpotentially disastrous recombinant-DNA experi- ties involved know the analytic and legal agenda and can ments, are landmark examples. The issue may not only allocate resources accordingly-, OSHA has tried to do be whether the hazards' are actuarially high, but 'whether this with occupational carcinogens, as has EPA with the threat would have an intolerably disruptive effect, chemicals regulated under the Toxic Substances Control physically or psychologically, on the fabric of society Act. The new National,Toxicologidat -Program-i; taking A useful way of enviitioning risks is to profile them over some. of the priority-setting tasks and will try. to as a curve of frequency versus severity, as has been done rationalize .them across agency lines, The Consumer for illustration in Figure 4. When a number of risks are Product Safety Commission bases atspnorities in. part plotted this way, certain domains can be recognized as on a "frequikcy-seventy iQdex" derivedfrom a, com- de °facto rejected (that is, society has repeatedly abjured puterized hospital-emergency-room-admissions sam- from risks in that range) or, on various grounds, as hav- piing system. ing been defined to be unacceptable. (The particular "Intolerable" and "unacceptable" are being invested curves drawn in Figure 4 are typical of those under dis'- with real-world connotations, as are "negligible" and cussion currently; their numerical valueore debatable "insignificant," These boundary-setting adjectiN;es gain The basic method,'though, of portraying cumulative,, meaning in two wa'ys. as experts, insurers, and others integrated risks in this fashion deserves exploration ) rank hazards in hierarchies by severity. inciden. and overall social/exposure (hazards at the to bottom SEEKING ACCOMMODATION BETWEEN TECHNICAL AND clf lists thus becoming-obvious candidates/for prohibition LAY PERCEPTIONS or acceptance), and as public opinion, lawsuits, and so on indicate endorsement of the ranking. This helps ad- Itis evident that "the public" often views riskdifferently ministrators and managers allocate attention to the 'dif- the way technical analysts do (Of course: corien- ficult cases, in the middle. sus is also rare even within relativelyclose ci/cles of In the beef DES example described earlier, some par- experts.) ties are urging that real but very small low-dose risks to From what db these differences of opinion stem') First. humans be considered "negligible." The same principle science itself is. in effect, simply a matter of ".Voting"; is being appealed to in a current legal dispute overthe the scientifically True is no more than what scientists regulation of the common hair dye ingredient 4 -MMPD. endorse to be true. Empirical knowledge ,is developed Seven hair coloring manufacturers have sued theFDA systematically within the scientific community, subject against requiring that products containing 4-MMPD bear to criteria of repeatability, controlled observation,sta-: a label warding that the compound "has beendetermined tistical significance, openness, and the other guides"'of to cause cancer in laboratory animals" and "can pene- 'Western science. By itselfprocedure guarantees nothing, stigthatizes though. Good science is science that ''works": (science trate the skin." The plaintiffs argue that this ..,., the. products, that scientific proof of 4;MMPD's carcin- that can predict with consistency and generality and ac- ogenicity is weak, and that even if the chemical is car: curacy what will happen in the physicaland social world cinogenic to animals "the risk is truly minusculewhen The weighing of facts remains subjective;, perfect objec- compared to other potential or proven carcinogens.. . tivity is a myth. , estimated to expose the individual consumer. to'a far And second, judgments of hazards involve consider- greater risk of cancer thanhair dyes containing ation not only of "size" of riskslikehhood and mag- 4-MMPD." A federal district court has remanded the itude--Lbut also of social value.34 This of courseleaves case to the FDA, instrifcting the regulators todetermine much room for disagreement. whether the chemical presents "a generally recognized ResearcheiV have speculated that people's opinions level of insignificant risk to human health."" about risks depend on many biasingfactors,ducli as In a striking case recently the FDA approved the hair voluntariness of exposure, frequency of occurrence, amenability to personal control, reversibility, immedi- dye chemical lead, acetate. While acknowledging that in 4 'high doses the material is carcinogenic to rodents,the acy, bizarreness, catastrophic nature, and soon." agency concluded that human exposureis so small, es- Social scientists such as Paul SlOvic, Baruch Fisch- pecially relative to overall lead intake; as notnrwarrantdhoff,. and Sarah Lichtenstein have used polling tech-, prohibition.V niques to survey risk perceptions and risk taking pro- Risk ceilings also can be established. In this and many clivities. What they find, to neither their surprisenor, other countries polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have ours, is that people have differentre perceatual biases. This been banned from commerce because their carcinogenic research has concluded that hum:beings' brains, potency is judged to be absolutely intolerable. From time whether expert or lay, get overloaded with riskicifor-, ,76 1 Risk Assessment451 10' 10' a.NATURAE HAZARDS, U.S.' b. MAN MADE HAZARDS, U.S. ICI° es, es. Ii fik 10-' 10-' 4k41,0 10-3 10-2 _....,,,,a:...., 10-3 103 Cr) \ %t O 4,,s. O %.-, \-., . Os 1-;,. .%, i 0 -4. \ 10-4 S \V.%, <4 ACTUARIAL to y., ACTUARIAL #00 Vc'e ASSESSMENT = .se.4,, "1:', 1p ASSESSMENT 7 -- ...., \\;', \\, .,-....#0,98 \ 13,,% \\ 104 \ N $.,.. 94., 15. \ s N \.- 1 \ \S 10' \ 10.6_ \ 1 1 o \1 i A -\ 104' I % 10-' I I \ 1 10' .10' 10' 10' 10' 10: 10' 10' 102 10' 10' 10' FATALITIES FATALITIES Figure 4.Frequency-Versus-Severity Profiles for Nuclear Reactor Hazards. (These curves are typical of their type, but are meant here Accidents in U.S., Relative to (a) Natural Hazards, and (b) Man Made simply to be illustrative, numbers are debatable.) Spume. Author. mation and have trouble comparing risks; that the media an approach called "prospect,them" to account' for the accentuate.sociu..re,. %reiterations in risk disputes; and\empiricalpfindings.'7 Now peihaps.tb,esny will guide .de- that, in essence, people believe what they want to.be-`Slit of more sophisticated polls. lieve. Person-in-the-street interviews of technical people In the risk assessment domain, as in others, we are show them to be not much better than nontechnical peo- being forced to realize that "the public"\ is a very elusive ple at guessing, for" example, how many 'fatalities are construct. No one person or group of people fully rep- incurred annually from tomadOes, contraceptives, or resents, or is representative of, all of our citizenry, and lawnmowers." the "organized public" remains small and keeps chang- Many of these polling studies are open to criticism. ing in composition and opinion. For this and other rea- They suffer from the usual shortcomings of questionnaire sons the-notions of "public participation': lacks concep- r design and the generic weaknesses of polling. Often they tual shape. To oppose closed bureaucratic proceedings ask about only a single hazard at a time, which by failing is usually legitimate, but itis a rots harder to devise «to foster or force comparison, and by allowing people proceedings that are not only open to the affected poll!), to express self-contradictory views, provides Me guid- but that encourage extensive "public" participation ance for policymaking. They force people artificially to withdut just opening channels 'for ,special-interest lob- ,break down their views into components. And they are bying. A recent Organization for Economic Cooperation vulnerable to being assumed (not necessarily by their and Development study of public participation, entitled authors) to imply findings about ."the public," when in Technology on Trial, concluded:" fact most of them have only dealt with small population The general thrust of participatory demand would samplet. appear to 6e for a greateregrgeof public account- Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky have developed ability; freer public access to technical information; 1, 452 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK more timely consultation on policy options, a more mental Pesticide Act; the National EarthquakeHazards holistic approach to the assessment of impacts: all Reduction Act; the Medical Devices amendment to the of which amounts, of course, to more direct public Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, the Safe Drinking Water partiCipation in the exercise of decision-making Act; the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act; and power. various Clean Air amendments. To ensure independence In recent years both governmental arid nongovern- of control it split the l'sFuelear Regulatory Comthission And it es- mental` bodies have been taking steps to seek accom- out of the old Atomic Energy Commission. modation between lay perceptions and technical-analytic tablished the Environmental Protection Agency, the Oc- ones.39 Regulatory agencies have opened up their pro- cupational Safety and Health Administration, the Con- ceedings t nd;have solicited public input. Professional sumer Product Safety-Commission, the National Fire organizations have explored perceptual issues: in 1979 Preyention and Control Administration, and the Federal the National Council on Radwtion Protection and Meas- Emergency Management Agency to administer all the iirement held a symposium resulting in a volume entitled new laws. Perceptions of Risk.40 The effect of this legislative crusade has been to bring It an attitudinal bias emerges, it can be incorporated tens of thousands of hazards intoregulatory frameyvorks into standards. In recognition of the public'sextraordi- of many kinds, based on science, medicine, engineering, nary concern about catastrophic potential (as opposed to law, and economics that wereand still areinadequate diffuse chronic risks) of nuclear reactors, for example, bases for decision. industry and its regulators have incorporated "risk aver- The Congress has chosen a sariety of roles foritself siveness." or disproportionate conservatism, into reactor in risk assessment.It has established the regulatory safeguards.4' agencies and overseen their work. With some issues, A 1980 report on Approaches to Acceptable Risk, such as automobile emissions, it has insisted on review- commissioned by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, ing "the scientific and economic' evidence indetail and provides very constructive review of many of these de- itself setting primary standards. With others, such as the cisional pro blems.42 Z arcane questions of recombinant DNAresearch, it has It is worth surmising that what is under perceptual held heanngs to establish a record but has refrained from dispute in many cases is not only the hazard itself but instituting strong control (see the paper by CharlesWei- the social "management" of it. Nowhere has this been ner in 'this volume). Occasionally, in response to con- more bluntly evidenced than in the overallconclusion stituent pressure or political opportunity, it hasinter- of the President's. Commission on the Accident at Three ven,ed precipitously in regulatory action, as it has Mile Island:43 repeatedly done with saccharin, directing the FDA to stay an action or requesting the National Acadeiny of preventnuclear accidents as serious as Three Sciences to conduct another study. In emergencies it has -Mile Island, fundainental changes will be necessary Mile in the organization, procedures, andpractices and held high-level inquind, as it did during the Three abo/ve allin the attitudes of the Nuclear Regula- Island accidorit. tory Commission at) d, to the extent that the Recently the Office of Technology Assessment, the tutiaiWVelif-Vesti-gated-are-typical;-of--the-nuclear General "Accounting- Office, -and-the- Congressional Re 4 industry. search Service have all gotten more involved in preparing Too, one suspects that risk opinions often may in effect risk-related worts for the Congress. Congressman Don be proxies for more deeply-seated opinions about cor- Ritter and others have proposed mandating that cost porate,bigness, Or bureaucratic Inaction, or erosion of benefit analysis be used as the basis for regulatory action; personal control. response to this bill in hearin'gslias been mixed.44 Con- gressman William Wampleilias, in HR-6521, proposed creation of a National Science Council within the Ex- 4- ecutive Office (lodged in the Office of Science and :tedh- INSTITUTIONAL ATTENTION nology Pblicy), which would becharged with adjudi- cating major scientific disputes over factual matters in CONGRFSSIONAL ACTIONS regulatory decision-making. Prompted by snch flaps as As though swatting at swarms' of hazards on all sides, that over the questionable studies of health risks at Love, during the 1970s the Congress passed, inter alia, the Canal, legislators are considering establishing guidelines Consumer ,Product Safety Act; the Fire Prevention and for scientific peer review of assessments used in regu- Contrdl Act; the Occupational Safety and Health Act;''lation. Congressional concern over risk issues remains the Federal Water Pollution Control Act; the Toxic Sub- high, but it tends to focus on individual hazards rather, stances Control Act; the.Mine'Safety and Health Act; than on a comparative high-risk-reduction agenda, and the (aircraft) Noise Control Act:. the Federal. Environ- it tends to favor regulation as its beskiiistrument. 3 , A Risk Assessment453 ADMINISTRATION ACTIONS will have to decide whether such centralized review is appropriate or whether such considerations can be del- ,Various Executive Branch sagas in risk decision-making egated, with guidelines, to the agencies. have been described elsewhere and will not be reviewed here. We should,however, notice several trends that go beyond the straightforward execution of regulatory COURT ACTIONS mandates. Thousands of tort cases are heard every year. For the There is some movement toward interagency coordi- present review what are important are the ongoing de- nation of regulatory actions. The complexity of the ad- bates ever the role 'of the courts, and the landmark de- ministrative thsk is illustrated by the fact that the Inter- cisions handed down by the high courts. agency Review Group on Nuclear Waste Management One respected view of the role of the judiciary is that had DS be constituted from 14 major entities of govern- championed by Judge David Bazelon." ment (the Departments of Commerce, Energy, Interior, State, and Transportation; NASA, ACDA, EPA, OMB, Courts cannot second-guess the decisions made by those who, by virtue of their expertise or their po- CEQ, OSTP, ODAP, NSC, and NRC).45 The Inter-c litical accountability, have been entrusted with ul- agency Regulatory Liaison Group (CPSC, EPA, FDA, timate decisions. But courts can and have played OSHA, and USDA) has developed coordinated guide- a critical role in fostering the kind of dia gue and lines on carcinogenicity assessment." A National Toxi- reflection that can improye the qual of those cology program has been established to serve the needs decisions. of a number of agencies. Others disagree, believing that courts should be frto Fundamental research in support of regulatory work review the substantive evidence and logic of assessments may be improving: the National Institutes of 4-Iealth have and decisions. The 'extent of judicial intrusion into 'become more involved in matters such as development agency decision-making will remain an issue. of reliable and practical screening tests for carcinogens; Recent years have seen the courts interpreting legis- the National Science Foundation now sponsors risk- lative mandates jas to whether, for instance, regulation related policy studies; and the National Bureau of Stand- under the Clean Air Act must consider costs, or whether ards conducts fire research for the benefit of many agen- the FDA properly interpreted its mandate in banning cies.'Ho'w to marshall such support effectively is still a laetrile), and refereeing territorial disputes between challenge: the basic research agencies don't have.specific agencies. mission mandates, and the regulatory agencies lack A crucial issue that continues to work its way up to strong fundamental research capabilities. the Supreme Court relates to the imperative for cost- As p of its attempt to control economic inflation benefit analysis in regulatory. .decisions. The recent case resultinfrom over-regulation, in March of 1978 the of Industrial Union Department, AFL-CIO versus Amer- Carterdministration promulgated its Executive'Order ican Petroleum Institute side-stepped the issue of whether 12044, which directed, the regulatory agencies to take OSHA must, under its statutes, base its decisionsin a nunnber.of steps to "rationalize" their actions and to this case, over whether to tighten occupational exposure evaluate the promise of 50n-regulatory alternatives. Most limits for benzene from ten parts per million to one controversially, the order called for economic .impact part per millionon formal, explicit, published Cost- analyses o( major regulatory actions. As a result, a layer, benefit analyses, the issue that many observers hoped of procedures and organizations, such as the Regulatory the court would address.49 The justices have, however, Analysis Review Group and the Regulatory Council, was agreed to hear an analogous case, on cotton dust, in superimposed on existing, congressionally mandated 1981. The legislative background from which the Su- agency structures. Adjustments to these developments preme Court has to woji does not provide much have been painful. In his enlighteiling report to the Ad- 3 gu idafice . ministrative Conference on these developinents, Michael, Baram concluded tactfully:47 NONGOVERNMENTAL ACTIONS Obviously, regulatory reform is in a state of flux, as COWPS, CEA, OMB, OSTP, RARG, RC, the Several recent developments exemplify the increasingly agencies and Congress act in response to the stim- collective initiatives being taken by nongovernMental,- ulus of Executive Order 12044. New controversies bodies. An impressive contribution has been made by have arisen as to the conduct and use of regulatory the Food Safety Council,. a nonprofit coalition of indus- analyses, the adequacy of the methodologies em- trial, consumerist, and other members, which has de- ployed, and the timing and extent of Presidential veloped and published' a thorough review of the technical involvement iu agency decision-processes. . problems associated with food risk assessment and made In its attempts to provide correctiyes for economically proposals that are now under consideration by regulatory damaging over-regulation, the Reagan Administration and _other bodies.". The American Industrial Health hi A w. / M 454 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK l 40 companies and 80 trade as- Science Council within the Executive Office forNih- iCouncil, a coalition o sociations, has develod concerted positions on regu- level review, ofassessments. latory issues and is now proposing structural aAd pro- In somewhat the same vein the American Industrial cedural reforms." In the aftermath of the*Three Mile Health Co'fitiCil has urged Congress to establish a Science Island accident thecountry's electric utilities and nuclear Panel: s4 .... 4.. industry pooled their interests and established a Nuclear AIHC advocates that in the development of carcin- Safety Analysis .Center, associated with the Electric ogen and other federal chronic health control pol- Power Research Institute, to serve as an industry-wide icies scientific determinations should be made sep- reactor performance clearinghouse. Same 35' major arate from regulatory considerations and that such chemical firms have recently established the Chemical determinations, assessing the most probable human Industry Institute of Toxicology, a research center risk should be made by the best scientists available following a review of all relevant data. These de- charged with performing state-of-the-art toxicological terminations should be made by a Panel of eminent research and assessment of large-volume commodity scientists located centrally somewhere within gov- chemicals (not proprietary products) for the benefit of ernment or elsewhere as appropriate but separate the industry as a whole. The major U.S automobile and from the regulatory agencies whose actions would. truck companies have joined the EPA in establishing a be affected by the determinations. Health Effects Institute to study the effects of m._. otor Two questions must be asked of such proposals. vehicle pollution." whether "scientific and technical determinations" can4" . It is not yet possible to evaluate the promise of these legitimately be separated from "political and social de- new institutions. They deserve watching because they terminationS," and whether centralization of authority typify efforts to develop technicues, procedures, data assures higher quality science. bases, and focal centers for risk assessment outside of To the first the adrwer is probably, yes. to a consid- government. The question will be whether the work they erable extent, as long as it is understood that the very produce is of high technical quality; whether they de- Trocess of defining the problem is subjective and that velop repUtations of integrity; and Whether government scientific assessments usually have to be conducted itera- and the courts.can effectively accommodate the work of tively. For example, to view the liquefied-natural-gas- these hybrid institutions as alterikattves to direct regu- ...'facility problem as one of time-averaged risk is different lation and government- sponsored assessment. , from worrying about the potentially massive social dis- It might also'be mentioned that a Society for Risk ruption one large accident could cause. Complex issues, Analysis has been formed, which (through Plenum Press) such as energy policy, have to go many rounds of as- will in198 lbegin publication of a journal, Risk Analysis. sessment, criticism, redefinition, and reassessment. 06' To the second question the answer is that communal scientific assessments do tend to gain critical analytic ,.SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY AND AUTHORITY strength and social legitimacy over assessments made by Serious criticism is currently being leveled at the manner individuals alone, du( that pluralism and variety within and quality with which scientific analysis is brought to the scientific community should be encouraged: recruit- bear on public hazards. Not to be interpreted as dis- ing more skilled policy-analytic scientists and engineers affection with_science_per se, this di'smdy reflects con- in industry, go vernment, and other organizations; ap- fidence that science can indeed help assess these prob- pointing able advisory panels to many different admin- lems, if it is properly applied. istrative, legislative, and managerial bodies; upgrading Proposals are -gathering for establishment of central assessment work in academies, professional societies, authority structures to which technical disputes can be and trade organizations; and so on. Pluralism remains appealed. For example, the New York Governor's panel an essential safeguard against narrowness. Centralization '(chaired by Lewis Thomas) formed to reNlitw. the Love and consistency are not always good in themselves. Be- anal ai fiasco found that "only further qdestions and de sides, high-level bodies will always be limited to han- bates on scientific credibility have been the result" of dling only a few contentious issues at a time. What they the "inadequate research designs" and "inadequate can do is raise warning flags about hazardoussituations, intergdvernmental coordination and _cooperation in the draw attention to suspat scientific studies, and help set design arca implementation of health effects studies" at the national agenda of assessment., the dump; as a remedy it recommended establishment One of the more encouraging developments of the last of a Scientific Advisory Panel responsible to the Gov- few years has been a willingness of technical people, ernor." Editorials have appeared in Scierice and else- acting as professional communities, to review major as- where calling for reincarnation of the President's Science sessments. When the original "RasmussenReport" on Advisory Committee to referee such disputes. Congres- reactor safety was issued, for example, it was subjected sionarbill HR -6521 proposed formation oka National to detailed critique by a panel of the American Physical Cr. V . Risk Assessment455 Society, by an ad hoc review group (the "Lewis Panel"). from various combustion sources., fbrmaldehyde, from chartered by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, by the insulation; and othersthat tend to build up and be cir-* Union of Concerned Scientists, and by others. Currently culatedinsealed, poorly ventilated houses, mobile the Society of Toxicology is critiquing the controversial homes, offices, and schools." There contique to be al- "ED-01" effective-carcinogen-dose experiment per- legations that nonsmokers are exposed to significant air formed by the National Center for Toxicological Research. pollution burdens from other people's smoking." Con- tinued urbanization and the campaign to insulate and seal buildings in efforts to save energy can only exacerbate NEW AND UNDERATTENDED HAZARDS these risks. New hazards will always be cropping up, and there is no need to develop a complete new apprehension list TEENAGE PREGNANCY here The author believes that the following can hardly It is hard fled to be struck numb by this problem. As escape becoming matters of heated controversy in the expressed by James Vaupel:," near future. The "thought exercise" is: how, can social and technical attention most effectively be brought to One area seemNrticularly important. It involves focus on them? the complex of overlapping problems associated . with teenage birth, illegitimacy; prematurity, low birth weight, low IQ, deficient pre-natal and infant WOMEN'S OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH care, and high mortality rates not only for those .. children in infancy but also later on in life and for I. As woFrien increasingly move into the heavy industrial the mothers. The number of teenage births is star- workplace, there are 'questions of. (a) whether our sci, tling: nearly 600,000 infants were born in 197 to entific and medical understanding of women's bodies teenage mothers, some 240,000 to nythers age 17 or younger., under stress is sufficient; (b) whether existing occupa- tional standards protect all women' as well as all men Surely these numbers speak for themselves. Can any "adequately "; (c) if the answer to either (a) or (b) is health risk be larger? To wave these problems off to "no," whether any health-related discrimination Should "social-welfare" bureaus and not address them along be, applied between the sexes (or, indeed, between small with the major issues on the national risk-reduction people and large people, orfldo anyQother categories agenda is to take a very narrow view. by which human beings dierfrom one another) in con- ducting research and instituting protection; and, (d) what SEISMIC HAZARD actions'should be taken' specificallye Part of this issue has to do with reproductive health, Barthquake experts continue to predict major shocks for both to pregnant workers and to the fetuses they carry. the West Coast. Engineers warn that although high, Legal suits that have centered around this issue have not modern buildings are earthquake-resistant, considerable yet provided much clanfic'atiOn. Because mutation can ,peril remains in older, lower buildings. Fire hazard ac- occur in sperms, too, men are not exempt from danger*companies earthquake hazard in inhabited. areas. As an The Interagency Regulatory Liaison Group recently an- exercise, officials might ask themselves hbw they will .4* nounced that it il conducting. a major review of repro- defend their current actions after the Big One strikes'. ductive toxicology." Many of the problems are technical- economic ones that Reproductive effects are not the only ones at' issue: lend themselves to comparative analysis,, as a recent heat susceptibility, hearing loss, skin irritation, and mus- Executive Branch review of California seismic hazard culoskeletal damage may well turn out to be different preparedness has argued.6° . for women." URBAN AND INDOOR POLLUTION HAZARDS . RECOMMENDATIONS Sealmg up indoor environments hermetically keeps cold .(.1) The overall urging of this essay is that bodies re- andfsmog out, but it may keep indoor pollutants in. sponsible for appraising public risk ask of theassess- Infectious and allergenic agents can be triansmitted ment efforts: through an office's ventilating system. The problems Of flaking asbestos and old lead-based paint are still with Are risks, benefits, and costs characterized as explic- us. In a. September 1980 report entitled Indoor Air Pol- itly as possible? lution the General Accounting Office raised the alarm Are uncertainties and intangibles acknowledged and about various gasesradon, the radioactive gas released where possible, estimated? slowly from rock buildinimaterials, carbon monoxide, Are programs oriented to agreed -upon societal goals? 456VS POLICY OUTLOOK Do procedures guarantee that high-quality technical asking whether they accomplish their risk-spreading or evidence is made availabland used as the basis for risk-reduction goals. , decision? Are risks examined in a properly comparative context (6) As the nation contemplates deregulation, sectoral net-assessment of regulatory policies should be con- along with bbnefits and costs? Are precautions taken to prevent minor hazards from ducted and critiqued. Alternatives to regulation shOuld displacing larger ones on the protection agenda? be examined, especially hybrid nongovernmental/gov-- ernmental approaches.° In this regard 'the experiences Are the formality and legal bindingness of the analytic of other countries, such as Sweden's in food safety, base appropriate? should beareviewed. (2) Excerpts of well-regarded risk assessment studies (7) High-level scientific leadership needs continual re- should be collected and published with commentary. newal. One function of:an upgraded White HOuse sci- (The National Academy of Sciences' Food Safety Study entific advisory body should be to identify major risk. published several examples, and the Academy's current Issues needing attention (such as, for example. the under- review of some of its past projectsthe "Kates study" attended issues cited at the end of this paper). This or will provide more.) Critique should be made not only other groups should consider setting up a watchdog com- of analytic methodology but also of how boundaries of mission like the United Kingdom's Advisory Committee assessment were set, how assessors were chosen, how on Major Hazards to lead in the anticipation and as- conflicts-of-interest and biases were dealt With, how sessment of important, long-term hazards. findings were expressed, and how thevstudy groups main- tained their relationships with patrons and clients (8) There are many specific research needs).)7-anking. 40, from toxicology to policy analysis. Broad topics deserv- (3) The causal connection between environment and ing. attention include: health deserves continued investigation. As part of this. 1,\ -1Aseline surveys like the "LaLondeReport" (Health of Evaltiation of the overallprAtictiveusefulness of the Canadians) or the 1980 California Health Plan should toxicological gauntlet through which chemical prod- , be developed for the United States; this would be an ucts now are required to be run.62 extension of the 1979 Report of the U.S. Surgeon' Gen- Improvement of epidemiology as an analytical com- ^ eral on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention. Then plement to toxicological testing, and continued de: those determinants of Health that are amenable to envit < veloiiment of the necessary, databases. ronmental influence should be evaluated. Refinement and compariso&Of such analyncalitech- niques as cost-bebefit analysis-decision theory, cost- BUdget, the Congres- , (4) The Office of Management and effectiv'eness analysis. 'sional Bildget Office, or others might direct.or commis- Evaluation of the validity of fault-tree and'e.vern-jree sion comparative evaluations of the marginal longevity analysis as applied tonuctear reactors and other en- gains and other benefits from key regulatory programs. gineered structures.° (5) Evaluation should be made of such longstanding , Investigation of ways in which human error (main- risk-management regimes as food inspection programs, tenance error, operation error, emergency-response fire-prevention provisions of building codes, flood' error) can be taken lath account in probabilistic as- plains insurance, black lung insurance, and the like; se' ment of technological systems. .. 101 V REFERENCES on ,Science and Technology, Hearings onC8mparative Risk Assess- ment, 96th Congress.Secodd Session (1415 'may 1980). 1. Ian Burton. Robert W. Kates, and Gilbert F, White, The Envi- ,1. James F. Fries, "Aging, Naturalbeath, and the Compression of ronment as Hazard (New York. Oxford University Press. 1978) Morbidity, New England Journal of Medicine. vol. 303 (1980), pp,. 2 S. Surgeon General. Healthy People: The Surgeon Genera s . 130-35.. - 0 Rep rt on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention, 1979 (Wash- 6. U.S. House Of Representatives.ConTmitteeon Science and Tech- 4 ington, D.C.: U S. Department of Health. rducation, and Welfare, nology, Subcommittee. on Science. Research and Technolog publication no. 79- 55071, 1979). ings on Comparative Risk Assessmimt. %th'Congresi Second Ieion 3. National Safety Council. Accident Facts (National Satety Council. (14-IS May 1980). - $25 Wirth Michigan Avenue, Chicago. III., 60611. 1980). 0 ;Health 4. James W. Vaupel:"The Prospect4.fpr Saving Lives: A Policy 7.Bernard L. Cohen and i-Sing Lee. "A Catalog of Risks', Analysis:" printed as 44-199 of the U.S. douse of Representatives. Physics. vol. 36 (1979), pp. 707-22. Richard Wilsornpnalyzing the Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology of the Committee Daily Risks of Life," Techn,plogy Review (February 1979). pp -41-46 .0 a 7 7 . , Risk Assessment457 8 Chauncey Starr. Richard Rudman. and Chris Whipple', "Philo- cinogens."Federal Register.vol 45 (1980). pp 5001-296. and OSHA sophical Basisfor Risk Analysis."Annual Reviejv of Energy, vol. 1 Docket No. H-090 (1976), pP. 629-62. ' 25 David Eddy,Screening for Cance Theory. Analysis, and De- 9. U S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission,Reactor Safest Study. An stgn(Englewood Cliffs. N 1.Prentice-Hall. 1980), Donald M Assess;ient of Accident Risks in S CommersialNuslear rimer-- Berwick. Shan Cretin, and Emmett B Keeler.Cholesterol, Children. plants (WASH -1400.October 1975) . -.,and Heart Disease(Oxford Oxford University Press, 1980) 10 Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff. and Sarah Lichtenstein, 'Rating 26. U S Congress. Office of Technology Assessment.The Impli- cations of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis on Medical re-chnologr (1980) the Risks."Environment.vol. 21 (1979). p. 14ff . .11. Shan PoU Tsai. Eun Lee. and Robert J. Hardy. The,,Effect 27 Michael S Baram. "Cost-benefit Analysis An Inadequate Bays, of Reduction in Leading Causes of Death 'Potential Gains in Life for Health. Safety. and Environmental Regulatory Decision - Making.. Expectancy."American Journal of Public Health,.vol. 68 ( I 978),,pp EcologvLaw Quarterly,vol 8 (1980). pp 473-531 '966-71 See allNathan Keyfitz, 'What Difference Would It Make 28 fffrey P Knscher.An Annotated BibliogriEhyofDecision If Cancer Were Eliminated? An Examinfon of the Taesuber Paradox,' Analytic Applications to Health Care."Operations/search.vol 28 Demography,vol. 14 (1977). pp. 41l-1$ (1980), pp..97-1131 12 Richard D. Schwing,Longevity Benehts and Costs of Reducing 29 Ronald A Howard, 'ocn Making Life and Death Decisions," *Various Ri'sks,"Technological Forecastin and Social Change. vol' Societal Risk Assessment Hot. Safe is Safe Enough'.Richard C t13 41979). pp 333-45 Schwing andWatter A Albers, Jr, eds (New York. Plenum Press. 13 National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council. Com- 1980). pp 89-106 mittee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems.Ectigrgy in.Tran- 30 'National Academy of Sciences,'National Research Council. Corn- sition, I9&5-2010San Frarrcisco \V H Freeman and Co , 1980) mince on Prototype Explicit Analyses for Pesticides,RegplatiO Pes- 14 Hertien Inhaber.Risk of Energy Production- (Ottawa. Atomic ticides(Washington. DC' National Aceemy of Sciences. 1980) Energy Control Board. AECB41119.1978) A summary versionwas 31 National Academy of SciencesNational Research Council, Com- publishedin Science.vol 203 (1979), p 718 Letters of criticism were mittee for a Study 'on Sac chann and Food Safety Policy.Food Safety published by ReiroLemberg.Science.vol 204,(1919). p 454. Richard Policy- Scientific and Societal Considerations(Washington. D C ,Caputo,Science,vol 204 (1979). p 454. and John' P Holdren, Kirk National Academy.of Sciences. 1979) is et al terSies Qepartment of Health and Human Smith, and`Gregory Moms.Science.vol. 204 (1979).,pp 564-66. 32.Carson'Prodia 15 U.K. Health and Safetx,Executive.Calmly An Investigation of 'Service;(Court for the Southern District of Georgia, No C>i4j0-71. Potential Hazards from Operations in the Canvey lyandllettirrocl Area' .decided September 1980) rLondon Hertiajesty's,Stationery Office. 19781. . - 33. Food and:Drq Administration, "Lead Acetate, Listing as 16 U S' Food and Drug Administratiln. -Chemical Comnunds a Color Additive in Cosmetics that Color the-Ha.,ir on t Scalp," 1in Food-Producing Animals Criteria and Procedures for Evaluating Federal Rep Tier. vol 45(1980). pp 721 r2-72I18. Tdecision was Assays for Carcinogellie Residues."Federal Register. vol 4`4 (1979). lauded in a Neu'York,Tindseditorial. 9 November 80 pp J,7070-114 34i William ,1,VLowrandl,Of Atc?ptable RI Scienc-e and the U S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.An Approach to Qteark *-Determination of Safety(Los Altos, Califomia ilham Kaufmann. mauve Safety Goals for Nuclear Power Plants(NUREG-0739, October Inc ,1978). 1%1 W Lowrance. ;'The l's1ture of So- ._,c oetal Risk Assessment,Richard P Schwing and Walter A' Albers. Jr . 1,* 1980), andPhan for Det eloping a Safer Goal 1NUFZEG-0735. 51ofolser 1980) eds (New York: Plenum Press. 19801. pp 5-14. _ > s.. . 18 Steven L Salem. Kenneth A Solomon. and Michael S Yesleye 35 'Paul Slavic. Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein. -Facts' Issues and Problems in Inferring a Letel of Act epueble Risk(Santa .and tears Understanding Perceived Risk.SocietalRisk Usessment. J Monica. Rand Corporation Report R-2561-150E, 1480) ' Richard C Schwing and Walter A Albers. Jr a ods (New York 19 National Academy of Sciences,Natiorfal Researeh Counsil. Ad- Plenum press tOao). Charles Vlek and Pieter -Jan Stallen. 'Rational o visory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation. and Personal Aspects of 4k."Acta,Psychqlog'ica.vol 45 (1980).. Con§iderationeof Hesalth Benefit-Cost Analysis for ActivitieslAvolving pp 273-300. dom.:mg Radiation Exposure and Alternatives(Washington, D 36. Baruch fischhoff. Paul Slovrc, Sarah Lichtenstein. Stephen Natiopal Academy of Sciipces, 1977) \ Read, and Barbara C9,iiibs. `1-low Safe Is Safe Enough`' A Psycho- 20. National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council. Corn- metncStudyOf Attitudes Tosk'ard Technological Risks and Benefits.' mittee for a Study on Saccharin aid Food Safety Policy.Food iafeky Pollcy,9ciences.vol. 9 (1978). pp 127-52. ;'Labile values A Chal- Policy. Scientific and Societal -Considerations(Washington, b G lenge for Risk Assessment,"Society, Technology, apdRisk A sse.Ment. I National Academy of Sciences. 1979). lobst Conrad, ed. (NewYorkAcademic Press. 1980). pp .51-166 21 NaticAl Academy of Sciences/National Research Council. Coin- Iv.37. Amos TVerslland Daniel Kahrteman. "JudgnIentader.,Un Regulating Pes- ' ,rnittee on Prototype Explicit Analyses for Pesticides. cerramtyHeunstics and Biases,"Scie 1 185 (1974). pp. T :icicles(Washington, D National Academy of §ciences. 1980) 1124-32. "Prospect Theory! An Analysis of DecIsjoh Under Risk," '1, 22. Edith Stokey acrd Richard Zeckhauser. 'APrimer for Policy..,Ecinometrica.vol. 47 (1979): pp. 263-91, . New York W W. Norton;-l978). 38. Organization for Econonuicoopeation and Development.Tech- 23 David Oldent.and Chris Whipple. "An Approach to Societal nology on Trial Pi;bric,Participatuln in Recisain-Mgki414 gRelated to Risk Acceptance Criteria and Risk Management" (Los Angeles: UCLA 'Science and Technology(Pans'',.0tD. 1979). ) School of Engineging Ad Applied Science. #UCLX-ENG-7746,1une 39. Nancy E Abrams and Jovl Pnmack, "Helping the Publk Decide' 1977); Baruch Fischhoff. "Cbst Benefit Analysis and the Art Qf mo- The Case'-of Radioactive WaAManagementi::,EnviPrinmeni, vol. 22 torcycle Maintenance."Policy Sciences,vol. 8 (1977), pp. 177-202. e , air (April 1980). pp.14ff. ° , Dan Iital:.ARisk Comparison Methodology for the Assessment.eff/ 40.Perceptions-of Risk(Washington,*D.C..,Natiodetouncil on Acceptable Risk(Ph.D Dissertation. Massachusetts Institute pf Tech- Radiation Protectton and MeasuttmeTs, 15,MarCh 1980) - nology, Cambridge, 1980): David Okrent. 4FAment On Social Risk .r 4, 41. 1.M. Griespeyer. M. Simpson. and D13krent.The Use of Risk Sei;nCe vol 208 (1980). pp. 372-75; Chauncey Starr and Chris Whip eversion in Risk Acceptance Criteria(Los Angeles,' UCLA Stool of ple. "Risks of Risk. Decisions."Science,vol.208,, (41/80)ipp. - Enginferigg and AppliedScience: #UCIIMENG-7970.,Octobert1979). 1114-19, 24 ,LIt'S OccupationaloSafety and Health Administration. "Alenti- 42. B. Fischhoff. S Lichtenstein. Slow. S Derby: and R .4 6 , Keeney.Approaches iorticceptable tRisk(Waillington. DC US . . . fication. Classification and Regulation of Potential Occupational Car- . - . . . t . 4 . . ,45§ AAAS 'POLICY OUTLOOK . f Nuclear Reghlatoryommission, NUREG-CR-1614. 1980). also. forth- the Development of Public Policy on Problems.Resulting from Haz- coming in.1981 from Cambridge University. Press ardous Waste, Report (8 October 1980). 43. President's Commission op.:he Accident at Three Mile Island, 54. "AIHC Proposal for a Science Panel" (Scadale, klel York, The Need for Clange.* The Legacy of TMI (Washington. D C . U.S. American Industrial Health Council, 26 March 1980) Goveminent Pnriting Office, 19,79). 55 U.S. Interagency Regulatory Liaison Group, "Annbuncement 44. U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Science and Tech- of Reproductive Toxicity Risk Assessment Task Group Outline of Work nology ,Subcommtee on Science, Itsearch and Technology, Hearings Plan and Request for Comments," Federal Register. vol. 45 (1980), ZneomparativeRiskAssessment, 96th Congress,-Second Session (14- tip 63553-54. 15 May 1980). . 56.Vilfna R. Hunt, Work and the Health of Women (Boca Raton, ' 45. U.S. Interagency Review Group,on Nuclear Waste Management. Florida: CRC Press, 1979) Report to the President (March 1079) 57. U.S. Genial Accounting Office, Indoor Alr'Pollution: An 46 U S Interagen'ey 'Regulatory Liaispn Group, "Scientilk.'13ases '.Emerging Health, Problem (Washington, D C 'GAO #CED-80-111, for Identification of Potential carcinogens and Estimation, of Their 2.4 September 1980). *. Risks." Journal the NatiotiallOancer Institute, vol. 63,(1979). pp 58. JameS L Repace and Alfred H Lowrey, 1-Indoor Air Pollution. 241-68 0 = Thbacco Smol!e, and Public Health." Science. vol 208 (1980), pp 47. 4chael S Baram Alternatives to Regulation for Managing 464-72 Risks tollealth, Safety. and Environment (a report to the Ford Foun- 59 James W a Vaupel. ''The Prospects for Saving Lives A Policy - dtitioiffrom the Program on Governnient Regulation. Franklin Pierce Analysis," printed as pp 44-199 of the U S House of Representatives, Law center, White Street, Concord, New Hampshire, ISeptembir Committee on Sueme -and Technology, Subcorfimittee on Science, c .1980);,4- Research and Technology. Hearings on Comport:ne Risk Assessment, r 48. David L Bazelon, "Risk and Responsibility."ience, 96th Congress. Second Session (14-15 May 1980) '205 P1979). pp 277-80 60 U S Federal Emergency Management 'Agency, An Assessment 49 Indiustruil Gnion Department. AFL-CIO tersits American ee- of the Consequences and Preparations for a Catastrophic California troleumlnstitute (Benzenet(C S Supreme Court, decided 2 July 19801 Earthquake Findings and Actions Taken (Washington, D C FEMA, Described in R Jeffrey Smith, A Light Rein Ealls on OSHA," Sci- .116-vembe# 1980) ence. vol. 209 1980): pp'567 -68 61. Baran). Alternatives t6 Regulation for ManagingRisks to Health. Proposed System for Food Se;fet Ass,essment Final Reporof Safet1, and Environment }he Scieltnfic Commute; of the Food Safety Conn( il(Washington, D C . . 62, US Congress. Office of Technoiegy Assessment. Assessment Food Safety Council) of Technologies for Determining Cancer Risks from the Environment 51 4IHC RecomMehded Alternatives to OSHA's Generic Corm- (forthcoming, 1981) qgen Proposal (Scarsdale. New York..American, Indastrtjl Health 63, Isaac Levi, "A Brief Sermon on Asseping Accident Risks in Council. 24 February 1978. OSHA Docket No 1-1-b90). S Conimercial.Nuclear Power Plants;.: The Enterprise of Kuowl- 52. Philip ShabecOif,Healthnstitute kto Stu Motor Vehicle edge An Essay on Knouledge,Credal Possibiltty, and Chance (Cam- Emissions," New York Times, Q. Decembtr 1980, 6ndge.:M1T Press. 1980) Also. enlightening analyses were presented ..**..p Governor of New York, Panel to Review Scientific studies and in staff reports tp the Proadenes Commission on Three Nile Island 0 ' o ( 1 ' or _ - s ' A NIr 9, 13° 3 ..e 0 _.* O `-\ o 4. 1 S. 0 . ti *2. TTSCIEN'CEIJECHNOLNY AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY .a- 4 0 2 SI 11, .A C r. ., .1 9, 3 Science, Technology and International V Security:- A Synlhesis ^Eugene B. Skolnikoff* "-\ INTRODUCTION needed., yet the issue. of excessive domestic orientation In a world substantially altered in this Century as a result is only rarely identified or directly confronted. Without of"the products of research and development, and with some attempt to understand this issue, actions that focus the elements of security of most nations directly affected, on the specific needs diStstissed below are likely always government institutions and policy processes in the to remain ad hoc, and seldall equal to their tasks. United States remain heavily domestic in orientation. Contrary to common assumption, this is at least as true for the scientific and technological enterprise as itis for VACKGROUND any other. he results of science and technology have had dramatic Some of the most important issues and needs relevant effects on the restructuring of nations and of international to. science, technology and international security, are affairs, particularly in the 35 years since the Second presented in the following pages #nd in the accompa- World War. Aircraft, satellite communicationialth ,* flying papers. The parochial nature of U.S. riational in- and Sanitation measures, missiles, nuclear weapons, au- stitutions, however, makes it peculiarly difficult to come tomated production, radio and television, agricultural to grips with some of these needs, or t9 anticipate them mechanization, and new crops strains- all' bear witness in any orderly way. For many years this problem has to the productivity of R&D and, in thelieffects; 'to the plagued U S. government attempts to deal with thein- profound revolution in human affairs they have brought ternational implications of research and development about or made possible. The pace of change, further- (R&D), and internationaL.science and technology. The more, shows no, sign of slackening. problems and the dangers now become more jessing International affairs have been heavily influenced by as scientific and technological competence inzother na- the differential ability of nations to carry' out and capi- tiens :becomes more formidable. New measures are talize on the results of R&D. Tw9 nations have emerged ti with military power and influenpe far greater than others "Clamor. Center for International Studies, MaAachusetts Institute of Technology. Cam. largely as a result of natural endowments and resource bodge, Massachusetts bases that have allowed massive exploitation of science 461 81 462 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK and technology. The gradual t cay of thatominance, the context of mission agency budgets. Even for-those especially in its economic dim nsion, is alre dy a'source agencies whose rationale has a basic foreign policy mo- of new international relationships and pr blerns. The tivation (DOD, DOE), the .actual..cleisions andchoices and inputs. disparity among nations of the North and S uth in ability are heavily influenced by domestic pressures 6y to acquire and exploit technology isalsomajor factor Some departments or agencies are in fact precluded in their relative economic status, andin th it increasingly. their legislative charters from comii*ting remurces for faced acerbic political relations. anything other than domestic 'problems.Aare Leg- Concurrently, the pace of industrial.zation of.Ltech- with a budget process, in both the Executive and rages (or:often deniesall nological societies has greatly intensifiethe dependency islative branches, that disii relations among states, so that even t most advanced departments except foreigpolicy agencies the right to societies Ind themselves critically dendent on others allocate their own R&D funds for other than U.S. - f4 resoulces, information, capital,arkets, food, and defined problems. en technology. In the private' sector as well, research decisions are Traditional. geopolitical factors have been altered or heavily conditioned by the U.S. market, with American and expanded by advances in science and technology to in- industry still priniarily concerned with U.S. sales, clude, inter aka, size and number6f long-range nuclear only gradually adjusting to the growing share of exports missiles, satellite communications and surveillance ca- iti,the economy. pability; competence of the educational system,funda-- The imp)ications of this situation are evident through- delow, and deserve- mental change in the very significance of majorconflict, out the disbussion of specific issues subsequent elaboration to suggest possible policyor.in. and critically, R&D capacity.' The results of R&D have alto given rise to new tech- stitutional departures that could be undertaken. pedby this par- nologies of global scale, creating wholly newissues in " Of course, not all issues are hand' international affairs, notably atomic energy and space ticular institutionalllimitation. Wh allows is-a broader eraction of science, exploration. Also a matter' of.wprldwide concern are the scussion of the issues in the i chnology and international security that are likely to side effects of technological development. Theresultant changes have/altered traditional international issues and be central questions over the next five years. Though thy sensibly created major new ones, suchas transborderenviron-, focus is on a five-year period, policies cannot into mental/concerns:" stratospheric modification, and ocean be seen in that short time fraine without .taking what are exploitation. account king-term objectives; Where relevant, a -- will, be Not all of these changes in international affairsdirectly in effect assumptions: about desirable futures bear on' security, but the web of interactionsin a tech- spelled out. The final section will be concerned with nological world makes it difficult, even misleading, to some of the institutional andpolicy process questions . exclude, say, economic concerns of developing countries raised by the specific issues. - from the concept -of international security. Infact,, the broad issues of food, health, resources, energy,and population are aspects as legitimately a part of security KEY ISSUE AREAS as are military issues. It is tempting to start with national security issues,which Given these effects of sciencea nd technology on the appear to be most directly related to,the subject But, international security of states, it is ironic that the supportk ecokolticsissues will probably receive policypriority in for science and- technology is primarily a national enz the 'next few years, with importantconsequenc8s deavor, particularly in the' United States. Policies for. international security. Inaddition, as significant as de- R&D are seen in a national perspective, and come pri- fense issues are, they tend to receive more concentrated marily from national governments. This means, how- _ attention. Hence, 'defense issues will be ddressed later needs are not likely to ever, that international or global in this paper, without in any way denyinthe; funda- be agequatelr taken into consideration in a national de- mental significance of science and technology,tbsecurity cision process. - issues and?particularly, to international stability. Aniatur*elult of the nation/state system is that de; cisions in aflitilicy areas are usually made unilaterally within one nation. Moreover, the apparent worldwItle ECONOMIC,ISSUES intensification of nationalism in the face of economic C,pmpetition and Cooperation Am6n,g1Advanced afficulty, not least in the United States, further encour- Industrial Countrie's ages unilateraf decision-making. Theparochial nature of decisions concerning R&D, however, goes beyond nor- It is not a novel observation that the mostserious short- mal constraints of nation-based decision-making and term problem of the United States and ofother stern funding. The decentralized nature of public funding for industrialiied nations is and will continue to b. cog situation. aA research means that it is predominantly considered within with inflation in a largely stagnating economic S 111 International Security463 Unemployment rates are_high in many countries (over The key. determinant of Americas competitive tech- 9 percent in the United Kingdoni at the end of 1980), nol(*eal position is, of course, the strength and inno- with inflation at the double-digit level for several. The votiveness:of its high technology industries. Domestic relatively bleak economic outlook has many cause, anal- science policy, including support for research, tax in- ysis of them within the context of this paper would be centives, regulations, qqality and adequacy of education, inappropriate. HoWever, not only do economic problems and other elements will crucially affect the economic .- affect the international role of science and technology, scene m years to come. In addition, specific tax and but some measures individual countriesmay take for other policies that bear directly on industry's decisions economic purposes will affect the course of science and to carry out R&D either abroad or in the United States technology or limit the international flow of scientific will require domination, though it should Alit be an and technological information. automatic conclusion that overseas research by American r .firms is necessarily against U.S. interest. Overseasre- search can contribute directly to American R&D objec- Industrial PolicyIt has become almost a fad to speak tives, enhance the possibilities for large-scale coopera- of the need in the United States-for an industrial policy tion (more on this below), and contribute to knowledge or for reindustrialization. Several aspects of reindustriali- generally. zation are particularly relev ant to R&D. One is the ability One of the greatest dangers of the current economic (legal, political, and psychological) of the United States malaise in Western countries, coincident with serious government to work cooperatively with individual com- competition from third world countries and from indus- panies:or a consortium to support research designed to trializedcOuntrias (especially Japan), is the possibility improve the international competitive'position of U.S. of a. rise in protectionismto preserve dying or ineffi- Indust& Antitrust considerations, among others,' have cient industries. These industries may be failing for any deterred such joint activity in the past. number of reasons: increased labor costs relative to other Two initiativesin the Carter administration have countries, changes in cost of other factors of production, shown that at least some of the,barriers can be ONetcom' e. particularly for energy and resources, lower productivity, The joint research programs on automobile engines, with lagging innovation, inadequate industrial organization, a consortium of auto companies (Cooperatiye Automo- and other:S. The temptation to respond politically to w ors- tive Research Program), and the cooperative pkogram for .ening domestic unemployment and its ancillary effects ocean margin drilling; with a group of oil companies by preserying and protecting inefficient industries is very have received the advance blessing of the Department great, especially when a certain amount of implicit or of Justice. These initiatives are now in jeopardy or can- informal protectionism is practiced by most countries in 'celled. The international economic payoffs of coopera- one way or another (hidden subsidies and biased regu- .lion of this kind (and the costs of not easing the way r lations, for example). may justify reconsideration of thiS" policy in the next The economic costs of a protectionist spiral among several yearsWhether or not the government is in- industrialized countries, and the consequent loss of in- volved, the advantage to international competitiveness centives for innovation and support of R&D could be of-/ allowing research cooperation among companies in very great. In effect, protectionist measures are an al- the same incluMry may create new support for antitrust ternative to R&D investment,.at relatively low short- policy legislation... Clearly, such legislation would pro- term cost and very high long-term cost. anor bargain, yoke major political controversy. but one likely to be proposed and activelY101igtOby . 1 .4: A related aspect of industrial policy is the tendency powerful forces in the near future. of the Un ited States to apply to U. S cotnpanies operatink, One specific protection issue has emerged in recent abroad the same rules and constraints that apply inside years over the export of new technology which, it, iS the country.; The es§entially adverifial relation betwesen argued, is tantamount to the expokof American jobs ts government ancrindustryin the United States, whatever that technology becomes the basis of new .competing . its hjstoitcal justification or merits in spurring compe- induslries. The argument is that technology developed tition,"ofien serves to put American companies abroad' 4 .4 in the United States is sold td others at a price that does at a.disadt;tuage in.competing with compinies directly not adequately reflecrthekrue costs, or the'broacier effects supported and often subgidized by other governments. on the United States of that sale. It is a disputed issue, Thisfis particul4rly 'relevant in high technology indus- not only with regard to the facts, but also whether this tries, as companies in other countries are now'able to is a casein which the possible cure might be worse than compete as technological equals for the major new mar- the disease. For example, is the current government pres- kets that will determine future economic strength.. Ob-*. sure to exclude foreign students and faculty from ad- viouSly many complex and contentious factors will arise vanced integrated circuit research facilities at universities asnhis issue is addressed, but they must be discussed. a .wise policy? This is an issue likely to be more visible . The economic stakes are in the future. . / I 464.AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK Finally, under the headingsof industrial policy the re- is likely to benefit from larger application of resources lationship between domestic regulatory policy to protect In some cases, participation by more than one country' health and safety, and a nation's international economic may be necessary to attain a criticalsize. The masSke position must be included. Already underintense scru- investments required in many fields of central and grow- tiny, this subject is certain to be the focus of important ing importance, especily energy, also make the pos- debate in the nett five years. The basic concern is that sibilities of cooperation to reduce the drain on national unequal regulations from country to country can result budgets particularly attractive. in substantially different costs of production,thereby The difficulties and costs of cooperation cannot be changing each nation's.competitive position. That claim ignored: is made now with regard to American environmental and safety regulations that are presumed to have important inherent difficulties of meshing disparate bureaucracies; 'effects on U.S. export potential. Equalizing regulations delays in reaching decision§ among differing political worldwide would be one way to manage the problem and legal systems; when it exists, but that would not always reflect different complications of varying decision processes, priori- conditions in oeftintries, differen factors of production, ties, and competencies; or different 'values. Regulations can sometimes improve cost of international bureaucracy; competitive position if the costs of compliance are higher the danger of political inertia, which makers projects irrother countries competing in the same market. At hard tc start, but even harder to slop; times, regulations are simply a disguised trade barner. the possibility of drains on research budgets because .Once again, the complexity of the situation does not of international commitments; allow simple judg'ments or generalizations. The positive the tendency to undertake internationally only low current account balance of the United States in the last prionty projects months of 1980, in the face of high energy costs and an the apparent o4onflIct between cooperation and im- improving U.Sdollar value would seem to belie the' proving a nation's competitive position. negative effects argyment, but it is not known what the balance would have been in the absence of regulation. Successful cooperation alse recites reliable partners Moreover, the issue is usually cast not only in specific The record of the United States in modifying, or abro- cost terms, but also with regard to the delays, uncer- gating agreements makes future agreements harder to tainties, and bureaucratic constraints imposed on indus- reach. Most recently, the 'proposal to cancel the coal try by what is seen as a burgeoning regulatory environment. liquefaction development project with Japan and Ger- The Reagan administration has indicated its xntention many, and to withdraw from the International Institute to address this issue directly. It is. hoped that sound data of Applied Systems Analysis have damaged bur repu- and analysis will support any actions taken. tation as reliable partners. Difficulties are formidable but'the potential. benefits CooperationScientific and technological cooperation are alsoformiclable. Successful examples of cooperation among Western technologically advAnced countries is (airbus,International Energy Agency Projects,coal not rare. When compared with the scale of investments liquefaction until this year) demonstrate it can be done in R&D and the common goals of Western countries, Greater willingness of the U S. bureaucracy to look out- however, the number of cooperative projects, especially side the United States and recognize the competence and in technological development, is rather small. .The ex- knowledge available elsewhere, and the greater experi- planations are obvious. difficulties encountered in or- ence the bureaucracy would' attain through making the ganizing cooperation, concern over losing a competitive effort, would be substantial additional benefits of accel- position, and, most important, the basically domestic eiating the'pace of international cooperation The forms Orientation of most governments. Meshing of programs, of cooperation (bilateral,trilateral, Organization for objectives, budgets, and people is much more complex _Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentOECD) all than when-cdrried out within one country. .4ieed to be examined for each case, though the OECD Current economic needs and constraints may now put is the logical organizatiorrin which to lay the groundwork cooperation, especially technological cooperation, much and establish a design among Western countriesIn- higher on the agenda. Industnal countries are all in need creased4ftenticin to genuine international technological of technological progress to meet their social, political, cooperation ought to be an important task of the ,1980s and economic requirements, at the very time when the North /South Science and Technology Issues econt)mic situation that created these requirements also serves to place severe budgetary constrahits on national The differential ability to ac_guire and exploit technology R&D expenditures. is a major determinant of tllerikingly different eco- Today's nearly equal comtence in science and tech- nomic situations and prospects of nations of.the North nology among countries alsoeans that a given project and South and one of the prifile sources of the political International Security465 disputes among them. Differences in technological ca- itary purposes or for the domestic problems of those pability, however, are potential levers for constructive countries. Perhaps no more than 5 percent of global R&I) assistance and cooperation. Can this nation grasp these can be said to be devoted exclusively to problems of opportunities, which play to its strongest suitits tech- development. In a setting in which industrialized -nations nological strength?' have such a stake in economic growth and elimination The fate of developing countnes in economic, politi- of poverty in the developing world, it makes little sense cal, and militarjrterms in coming years will have a great to devote so little scientific and technological effort to deal to do with international political stability, and with problems that are peculiarly those of developing countries. the security of all nations, not the least the United States. Much of this R&D cannoYand should not be done in It is reasonable to forecast that international turbulence industnalized countries, for-practical as well as philo- will be centered in the developing world. That estimate soghical and political reasons: To be effective, to work is reflected in U.S. military and foreign policies. It is on the right problems, be sensitive to local needs and much lesslevident in officiate'conomic policiesThe U.S preferences, to producolunons that fit and are likely commitment to economic assistance is scandalously low to be adopted, to keep uwith and adapt technology relative to that of other industnalized countries. The var- all require R&D defined a d carried out locally. In turn, ious reasons Sr U Sindifference and frequent oppo- this implies attention to thbuilding of the scientific and sition to foreign assistance cannot be usefully probed technological infrastructure in developing countries. here However. the central nature of technology in,de- This does not mean, however, that 41 research relevant velopment does provide a focus for exploring how to to developing-countnes needs must be carried out locally. maximize the U Stole, whatever the aggregate scale Many areas of basic research can more effectively be of assistance and for highlighting some of the particular done in existing laboratories, many problems are generic issues within specific fields (such as agriculture and and can be more quickl\ investigated in experienced population) v. hich need to be confronted. labtratones witlrresources and skillalready deployed, Economic growth, political stability, and a working many techndlogical problems req'uiri general ,solutions economy in a developing country (with important effects, before locally adapted applicatiohs are possible. Perhaps on agricultural production, resource availability, reduc- most important is finding ways to elicit commitments tion in fertility, and markets for Amencan'goods) can from scientists and engineers in industnalized countries all be advanced by external assistance from the United to work on problems of development in a_sustained way StatesIt is in our national self-interest to provide this that allows cumulative benefitsitind continuous attention. assistance. This is not to deny thatTht more economically Long-term availability of financial resources is essential, advanced a developing country becomes, the more com- not only to make such commitment possible, but also petitive it is with the United States, nor is it to deny that to make it respectable in the eyes of disciplinary peers. political stability' does not automatically follow growth, Transfer of existing technology to developing coun- of that the political objectives of developing countnes tries is no longer-seen as an adequate alternative. Ex- may differ from our own. But U.S. self-interest is better., perience shows that such transfer, especially of public served by the steady advancement of -developing coun- technologies of heals and agnculture, is inefficient or tries than by lack of progress. Whether or npt economic irfappropriate without adequate receptors to choose, assistance to developing countries is high On the U.k adapt, finance, and develop knowledge to fit local en- agenda at the moment, there is a substantial probability vironments and needs...Technology, requires adaptation ,* that it Will be forced theiS through political or economic to a unique social, economic, and politicals well as crises, or national calamities such as v. idespreaddro ught. technical environment. Also, it tends c ange that en- kfironment, often quite rapidly, so that mutual adaptation Tichnblogy Policy to Devaoping Countries Itis no"fhof technology and environment isa ,continuing and dy- longer necessary to justify the importahce of technology,"namic process. in derlopment. Technology As essential to management Relations of developing countries with multinational of the problems of agriculture, health, environment, in-. corporations also require local capability. tie bulk of dustrialization, population, energy, find most ol)ier as- industrial technology' is translerred to developing cop- . . pects of a modernizing sociek, and is recognized (some- tries through private investment by international arras'. times overemphasized) in most developing countnes to To work effectively with technologically advanced com- be essential. The United States,whatever its 'relative panies, without losing control of the resulting develop- decline in technological leadership, is still the world's ment a Weing exploited economi, presupposes the strongest technological Orion, with abroad and flexible Ability to .set realistic objective,negotiate .contracts, education and research establishment. weigh often esoteric choices, a d in general be fully Thf technaldgical capability of most developing coup- aware of technological and economic options. tries iefteadily improving. Nevertheless, host research Thus, a significant and growing indigendus capability is carried out in the developed countries either for mil- in Oes'Adlopingeountries.is required. And, it must einbrace , t.) i1-1 .1 - 4 466AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK basic science as well as technology, for without the in- technology capabilities best able to make use of coop- sight and self-confidence created by, an indigenous sci- eration with the United States, though not yet able to entific community, a developing country will lack the compete at the scientific frontiers. Thesecountries have ability to control its awn developreent. In short, 'what the greatest interest in substantive cooperation(often is required is greater allocation ofresearch resources to without any transfer of dollars), and are in the best po- development problems in advanced countries,especially sition to begin solving their own problems as well as in the United States, and the building and strengthening assisting in .attacking global problems. of indigenous capability in developing countries. In fact, in recent years, the United States has under- To date, the ability of the United States to help in taken rather substantial efforts at developing bilateral either f these efforts has been seQously limited, because science andochnology cooperation with these countries of the ow level of resources all&ated, and because of Those initiatives have had to be taken primarily at the the pi itutional and policy constraints that deter or pre- White. House level directly, with major problems of plan- vent effective commitment of scientific andtechnological ning and implementation. And now, at least some bi- resources for other than domestic purposes. At present, lateral agreements that already have been negotiated may essentially all research devoted to problems of devel- be abandoned as a result of large, targeted budget opingcountries must ci me from the foreign assistance reductions. budget either spent du.tly by the Agency for Interna- The opportunities to use America's strength in science tional Development (AID), or through transfer to other and technology in cooperation with other countries to '-U.S. govemstent departments and agencies. With minor further U.S. objectives (political and economic as well exceptions, departments and agencies areprohibited by as scientific) are likely to grow in thecoming' years. The their legislative charters or by the budget process from absence of an adequate institution Sand policy process to spending any of their own funds on objectives other than plan and fund these programs, and to engage the com- domestic ones. Thus in an overall federal R&D budget petence of the. American scientific enterprise,both gov -' well in excess of $35 billion, the total' allocated for ob- ernmental and 'prizeogewill be an imps tant issue that jectives directly related to developing countries, is on- will have to be confronted:Tate Institute for Scientific which was pro- theorder of $100 million, or one-third of 1 percent) and Technological CooperatioWSTC), The result is not only very limned in terms of R&D posed by the administration in 1978 and authorizedbut , output; it also means that the competence of the U.S. not funded by Congress, was designed tocorrect some government's technical agencies is barely tapped on is- of these institutional and process deficiencies. sues to which they couldsignificantly contribute. When all funds come by transfer from other agencies, there is' Food and AgricultureSome issues within the context no' incentive to build staff or agencycommitment, to of North/South relations stand out in theirimportance of work on thege issues with their congressional committees and in the likelihood they will or should be the focus in the and university or industry constituents, or even to know much greater attention in the next quinquennium United States. One'of these is food andagricultufe: be- through experience hbwthey can contribute_'., - .The ratianale.for these legislative restrictionsand for °cause of its fundamental nature in the development proc- budget compartmentalization, stems from the early his- ess and the great concern thatincreases in agricultural tory o'f,jhe creation of cabinet departmentsand agencies, productivity will nol'keep pace with the growth of popu- and from natural managetnent principles of tying pro- lation that already includes several hundreds of millions gram objectwea tightly 'to appropriate funding sources. chr\onicallyttnalnourished.4 It is estimated that food pro- The trouble is that as foreign and domestic issues have duction must increase at least 3-4 percentizer yearif becomejnore eloscly intertwined, correspondingrellec- significant improvement is to occur by the end a the tion in the allocation of resources has not taken place. century:5 The United States has a unique role to play because And the rigid budget compartmentalization does not take , into account the often mixed purpoy,..s(combiningtech- of its unparalleled agricultural prodnction, as: Well as nological and development assistance goals) df many R&D capabilities. For the reasons cited earlier, however, much vf the necessary R&D and experimentation must possible programs. .. - The implications of these institutional restraints go be carried out ii# the countries trying toimprove ,their farther. Astonishingly, the United Stateihas no govern- own agricultural enterprises.; Thisimplies building* 0.meaalinstrumept for cooperation with othr countries, .greater indignotiscapabilities than now exist, and also unless that cooperation can be 'defined either, asscien- strengthening and expanding the enormously successful tifically competitive with domestic researchand devel- international agriculture researciventers thAi have been opment, of as foreign aid for the poorestof'countries. primarily oriented to, add staffed by, develOping coun- Thus, the United States cannot respond to Those devel- tries. The recent moves to devote mote of the resources oping countries that have graduated.from the poorest of these center.s'to, the applied problems ofimproving status, the verycountries with developing science and agriculture (low-cost technologies, water conservation, , t , u 0 s r International Security467 etc ) are much to be applauded The international centers the United States. Thusv proposed contraceptive drugs must not be seen as alternatives to individual country are evaluated for safety based on the nsks of health side- capacity, but as necessary complements to allow some effects in the U.S. environment, when the nsks Rind economies of scale, to focus resources qn generic prob- benefits are likely to be quite different inyanother country. lems, and to provide an essential psychological tie to a In some cases, American pharmaceutical companies are world community for a sometimes isolated scientist in deterred from developing a drug at all, since the benefits a, poor country. -of protecting against some diseases (schistosomiasis, for The U.S. research community could pig a substantial exatiple)are so low in the United States that any risk role, larger than is at present likely. One impedinient is of side-effects would overwhelth potentialbenefits, the budgetary process, cited, earlier, that bars the De- while in another country the benefits would greatly out- partment of Agriculture from effectively committing its weigh the risks. Own funds for agricultural problenA not seen as domestic. The reverse side of the coin is the stnngent testing Another is the organization of agricultural research in regulations in the United states that tiave led some com- the United States that is essentially a state-based structure panies to test drugs for safety in other countries, in effect without the extensive tools for central planning or quality using their people as guinea pigs for the .U.S market. control That makes it difficult to ensure the ,essential Nett er situation is tenable. Some means must be quality of the entire agricultural R&D effort, to build foun of internationalizing drug ev al ation as it would competence in areas of study not peculiar to the United note aopropnate to expect the-Food and Drug Admin- States, or to enable effective sinned connections to be istration,Ifor example, to institute its own cnteria for established between devel.opi countnes and the United evaluating drugs for foreign applications that would,be States on agncultural R& any satisfactory scale. different from criteria for U.S. application. It is also importan rie:.e that improvemenkin ag- "The general problem of encouraging greater com- ricultiiral productivity of dependent solely on ad- mitment of U.. scientific and technologicalatten- , vanes in traditional ai4g of agnculture. Wat&- conser- tion, whether in government, industry, or university, to vation, climate, energ', pest control, and lbw-cost population- and health-related issues should be an im- technology, and the social sciences related to agricultural portant issue in the near future. economics, innovation'application and distribution, Xi; X inter alia, of equaLimportance.I The agncultural research TRANSBORDER ISSUES agenda .must include those areas as well. A series-of transborder and global science and technology PopulationAlthough fertilify has declined in recent issues will V important elements of die-international years,igrowth, projections remain Mgt; enoughto cause security picture in the next five° years, though,the sep-0). serious problems of starvation, economic stagnaiNn, and aration of these ffom "economic" -issues is rather ar- political unre st.6 The international system has only begun tinriryTile importance \of environmental, ocean, re- to feel the effects of forced or voluntary migration across source, and energy issues will be largelyintheir borders, whiCh is likely to become a major cause of economic and ultimately political effects, as is the case international political instability in the4uture;in41di- for those just discussed. tion, there is the already evident internal installitity that arises from urban migration, un- or brideremeoyment, Resources and Energy 'lack of adequate fbod and sanitation, and serfis health,:4.In the short term, the major issues related to security, problems. resources, and energy have to do with supply interruption. Science and technology; cannot solve the poetation engendered by political action,: and secondarily, the prbblena, but they can provide, thenecessary tools for economic terms on which resources are m'ade available public policy. In particular, more researcSis Peed. o to industrialized societies -' 4 provide low-cost contraceptive technologressi(especiay A major political phertordenon of recent years-is the including, male contraceptives), and to increaseour un: assertion of the,right of absolutesovereignty over natural dersfanding of the social determinants of effistiye resources. it is a natural concomitant of a nation .state planning policy Fertility *cline isso closely related to system, but has not before been sanctified A it is today. other aspects of development, particularly healtlffood The growing, dependence of industrialized societies on sanitation, trvisportation, 'and communications, 'kat in"resources under the Control of others, particularly de- a sense all technokogical research can contribut4ndi- _yeloping countries, creates major degndency relations, reedy or directly to the population blem. many-fraught with great uncertainty and,danger for in- . " In population-related-(and stealth- related) subjects, we temational stability. find aspecial vArieiVf the dowestic.orientatiotr of US. The dangers come not only from the threat of supply (institutions 'Health 'altid.safetvegulation of drugs in the disruption, or of sudden dramatic- increases in the cost United States is based on risk-benefit criteria keyed to olkhe resources, butagilso from the second-order strains $ 468 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK # both iri the United States created among industrial countries whosedi'sparate de- an 'inadequate understanding, deposition of pendence on resources from abroad may lead to major and globally,"' of certain areas: geological and disruptive foreign policy differences. Themuch minerals; the exploration process; and the impact of the of greater dependence of Japan and ContinentalEurope than changing industrial structgre in minerals on the flow the U.S. on Middle East oil, or the differential depend- mineral supplies." ence on South African resources couldlead to serious These tasks will require reinvigoration of concerned conflicts ofonterest over Middle East, or African', or government agencies, especially the Bureauof Mines and Geological Survey, and may also require a new Soviet policy. Though the world is painfully conscious of the polit- institutional means to develop an objective, credible data de- ical restrictions oil-rich. developing countries sometimes base (technical and economic) for resource-related place on resources, these countries are not the only ones Aisions. In addition, coordination of policymaking must by to do so. Canada and Australia haveboth restricted ex- be improved to' avoid conflicting policies carried out activities port of uranium ore on nonproliferationgrounds, and the individual agencies which are not aware of the United States severely it stticts.export of enriched ura-. of other agencies. mum on the bais of specificpolitihl considerations. ts- .,. Environment and Global Commons Moreover, the United Statesembargoed soybean exports Closely related to resource and energy issues are those for a short time inI 974,,to stabilize domestic prices, and has embargoed the sale of grain,and high technology to involving transborder environmental questions, and the Soviet Union in political protest to the Afghanistan more general globalvissues of theenvironment: atmos- invasion. A cabinet member of theReagan administra- phere, oceans, and outer space. borders tion in his first public statement spokeof using U.S.' Our national activities have effects beyond food exports as a foreign policy `" weapon" (later and,. in some Cases. on a global scale. Transborder pol- changed to "tool").8 lution has already become an important issue in many These consequences of resource dependencyand of areas of the word. with some progressin the last decade. unequal distribution are all 'political and economic in particularly in melding environmental policies, in reach- character. The issues arising in the near future will be ing international agreements. or dealing withthe' tradi- .r issues -are concerned with distribution and availabililf\. but not with tional prohlem of the global commons. The' b\ften will depletion. In the long-term, the adequacy of retources likely to betome,more Sat're, however'. and games. iz wiE bedetermuvad by economic, not seolOgicaf, phe-`'take on the east df zero-sum notnena.9 and there is no reason to doubt thatthe in- The worldwide recession and the rise in energy prices environmental . dustrial system could cope with long-term changes in the raise the indirect. costs of coping with price and availability of materials and energy. degradation, and make it .more difficult politically to Short-termvulnerarities must be met with measures restrict activities whose harmful effects fall acrossthe full Costs in that-are largely outside the realm of science andtech- border The standard problem of reflecting exacerbated when the externali- nology directly: stockpiling, political negbtiations,pool-, a production proceWis Issues associated mg -atraggements in time of crisis.and.so on. Co.ncei'v: ties are felt outside a national economy. degradation, and ably, new R&D for resource_ explorafiOn, or explonatiOn with acid rain; wate p_ollution, forest internationally in of deep seabed minerals, itould change W.S. dependency. others will become more contentious on foreign resources, but,this is unlikeky in a five-year the next decade. The depressed mic situation 'will also lead' to tiiiie horizon. . estic.envitonmental regulation In the longer term, science and technologyhave major greater resistance to do international 40. roles to play in the development of substitutes; in ex- if that is apumed to affect adversely the ° panding knowledge of resource'exploration, recovery, competiti4 position'of a nation's goods. As,noted ear- processing, and use; and more generally incontributing lier,itis. not alwys appropriate to call for common environmental standdr-ds in all nations, and evenwhen..,' to innovationand productivity in the.nation's industrial plant (both to improve efficiency of use ofmaterialsand it is, it is not clear they can besuccessfully rfegotiated. Thus4ithe costs and bases for domestic environmental fuels, and to generate t1e ,export, earnings nece,ssary to regulations are likely to. be difficult i'sstiesbeca_usd. of pay for imports). The lon leadtimes inherent in reaching f these objectives mandate early cbnitnitnientof R&D to their international implications. maybecome.edaret in the next these tasks. Some lotig-te'rm issues The changing price and availability of materialsand few years as research iyreases understanding ofimpor- CO, buildup and NOx energy may ,change critically thecomparative advantage tant global systems.. In particular, understood along with of some 'American industries. Theadjustments4neoessary in,the atmosphere may be better their global economic implications 'yid potential ways "ito allow the.prderly decline of thoseindustries will them= disputes could arise selves set up serious political and economicStrains. of controlling them. Untrecedented changes in the statiA The need for.R&D in the resource area is coupledwith over such issues, with important 0s) 3 International Security469 ofindiv idual.nations, scare benefitsay through im- example, coinniuntcations versus data flows, postal ver- proved, agricultural Lunditionsand others are hurt fur sus electronic mail, inforthation versus banking), and the example. if the costs of env ironmental controls tall more economic calculus of benefits and costs,Lhanges percep- heavily on them It is unlikely that these issues w ill come tibly. Controversies arse over privacy of information, to a head in a few y ears, but the debate could be' far access to information within nations, the role of central advanced. computer banks: the transnational nature of economies Exploitation of global ...minions, especially the oceans of scale, and related issues. In the face of U S. dorm- and outer space. is likely to proceed during the coming mince of technology, other Western countries are wary decade ,The_ 1_,11,of the Seas negotiation. which pro- of allowing unfettered development that undermines they posed a new -international -institution responsible for Lompentive position, the Soviet Union and itsallies overseeing the mining of the resources of the seabed, worry because control of information is vital to its,,po- appeared to he almost completed, though the positnin litical'systein, that developing countries worry that the of the United Staten is now in doubt Many aspect, of loss of control Fver information w illthreaten their that institution would he novel, in particular the assigning independence of sortie of the'benefits of mining to developincountries The dy nama. nature of lie growth of this technology. *1 he detailed questions of implementation would he left and its base in the priv ateector in the United States. to the interim arrangements follow ing the Completion of makes this a particularly difficult issue in which to an- the treaty and ultimately to the new authority. Some ticipate implications, much less develop clear interna- serious disputes are inev 'table, w ith regard to the mining tional poilLios and conduct negotiationsIt is certain to aselt. the operation tit the authority ind the itnpre.e- appear significantly on the international agenda in the dented provisions for transfer of technology in the draft 1980s treaty Certainly, if there is no treaty, a variety of ocean issuesnavigation. fishing, oil exploration, research, as ef well as mining. may become the sourceof senous .srvrioNALSECURIll dispute. Science and technology have been central factors in the In space applications colltroversy may arisCxner geo- evolution off-weapons AI:military systems in this Cen- stationa'ry orbit allocations, but more likely will hecon- tury .They have altered drastically not,only the nature troversy over the international :efforts to manage and and scale of hostilities, but the v ery meaning of Sti,ategic control space technology systems such as Landsat This war as an option to achieve national objectives The earth resource surveillance sy stern has been, until now strength and productivity of a nation's advanced tech- an experimental American monopolybut as it moves nological communit, have become, major elements in to operational status. many questions will become more any Igeopoliticitb calculation Massive support for secu- pressing Who owns the informatiOn in a vvorM in which rity- related R &D has. in ,turn. changed science, tech- sovereignty of resources has been zealously asserted? nology; and the university.` Should the output be available to anyone who asks for The application y.f science-to national security-shows .it9 What rights do nations have for unilateral surveillance no sign of abatement. In fact, a new round of major of atotherxountry's resources.' What are the security' commitments to large-scale strategic systems is in the,,, implications,pf.the high resolution that.v. ill nobe built offing. turning the ratchet one more notch in a search into the sysinf Who should manage the systek and for security that seems steadily receding into the future. determine la-technical eharactenvcs? What are the In the context of this Prier. only a few general issues economic and political implications of greater know ltdge in this area can be briefly touched upon, dearly it is an of resource endolvments of more accurate annual pre- enormous subject that isitself the subject of a large dictions of agricultural production domestically and in- literature, " ternationally') Undoubtedly, these issues' soon be -. One controversy cncertis whether the constant search tome more prominent on the international political for more technologically advanced weapons systems in ageieda. fact contributes to the nation's (or the world's) security. .1) Whatever the views of the 'causes of the arms race be- Interaction of National Technological:Systems ) tween the Soviet Union and the United States, or the ManyVationalsy sicins -aircraft. communications. current state of relations between the super powers,snew .1 ,weatheMbservation, finance, banking, postal-are bas- weapons systems often make the arms balance more pre- ically information syceinshie h requite interaction with carious, more vulnerable to preemptive actiop rather than counterparts in other nations The explosive development contributing to stability. This may continue. and perhaps oftnfOrmation technology systems has begun to cause worsen. as capabilities arearsued that threaten con- serious strains, and is.likely to be an even larger cause cealment of weapons systems. give greater pi:emium to of strain in the coming years. surprise:and make it hr4.1.er to know whether missilq T,aditional differences between fields break ;town (for contain one or many independent lvarheacls.'Develop- , sf 470 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK ments in conventional weapons. movingrapidly, may master the political, economic, and rel&d aspects., also change the nature of "local" war, leading to greater whic,h will eventually determine the outcalt. the instability among developing countries as ode 'or another The quality of debate needs to be improved in believes it has The capability for rapid strike and victory. public sector as well as in the scientific communities. No simple solutions exist, It is easy in rhetoric to call, Better information, and greater resources, public and for example, for more attention to military and related private, committed tothe analytical area are badly systems that contribute to greater stability andles, un- needed. The momentum of a defense budget close to certainty and threat. adequitte conventionalgrdtind. 5200 billioqrequires open debate of the purposes,de- Eitces.traprave-41 -command ,control, and communica- tails, and implications of that budget. In turn, More fund- tions in a hair-trIger weapons environment, greater com- ing is required to produce information and analysis to mitment to deJEloping arms control agreelnents, more make public debate possible. The congressional com- attention to "hot-line" communication capability,less mission to study the establishment of a National Acad- emphasis on strategic weapons. that pose a first-strike t.emy of Peace and Conflict Resolutionpresumably has threat in favor Of those with clear survivability; and oth- the same goal.15 erg'. Each has its ambiguities, hcrweve'r and there is no One aspectof the role of science and technology in agreement on what' is required for security, or evenfor weapons development is peculiarlytroubliNg Much of greater stability the initial development of ideas for new technology The fact of the matter is that science and technology ideas that may later be revolutionary in military terms without are most likely tocontinue to alter military systems The occurs in the laboratory at a very early stage, effects of the changes cannot always be anticipated military applications in mind, and often without military, One of the objectives of arms control is to bring the funding. This dynamic of the research process leads to situation under greater control. but even if one were instability, both in weapons development and in the long- optimistic about SALT II, agreements of this sort deal term viability of arms control agreements only wall, existing or planned technology. They do not Little can be-done about this now, although ultimately deal with _the possibilm.:. of new weapons systems or ways of bringing R&D within the scope of arms control unanticipated capabilities created by further research. agreements must be considered One aspect,somewhat Our knowledge of "threat syistems, the involvement farther. along the "R&D chain, does deserve institutional of the scientific and technological community in strategic attention, however debates, the public perceptions of military andstrategic Proposals for new weapons development are'. in their affairs are all inadeqdate. The once substantial public early stages, often made at low levels in the buteaucracf, At these role of scientists and engineers in strategic policy delib- with relatively little R&D funding required erations, for example. has been greatlyreduced, and the levels. choices tend to be made on ,Strictly technical public inputs to arms control and Weapons debates have grounds, with little cdasideration of their ultimate effect suffered. This is illustrated by the spectacle of the stag- on relevant arms controlobjectives. The situatiCip is re- nation of the SALT II 'agreement in the U.SSenate over peated at higher levels Its well, so that it is not uncommon essentially extraneous 'issues. for the government to be faced 'with mature weapons Some argue that the whole framework of the strategic designs creating major new foreign policy problems that debate has been rendered madequate.'"Theyfall for might have been avoided or eased if some alternative emergence of a new paradigm. a newdiscipline.of con- technical options had been chosen instead., bu- - flict studres. and assign the scientific communityspecial It is very difficult to deal with this issue in the responsibility in bringing,this about. The- argumentof reaucracy, since the organization of government serves Compartmentalized objec- the inadequate frameworkortiebate is persuasive, al- to create bureaucracies with though, the path for achieving a new paradigm is hard tives and few or negative incentives to introduce con- to discern in practical terms. siderations for which they are not responsible,. An at- tempt to introduce ponproliferationconsiderations into The scientific and engineering communities have spe- "Re ex- planning for nuclear reactor R&D, thro'ugh participation cial liut more traditional responsibilities jetting of isting framework particularly, because ofof theesoiteric of a State Department ,representative in the technical aspects of the issues. The relativeneglect or objectives in the Department of Energy, has lippar,ntly these responsibilities in recent years, must be reversed. had some limited success, and deserves evaluation. .1\lew prOgrams such as'arms condol fellowships in the In its most general formulation, this task can be stated National Academy of Science,s and aconcomitant pro- as the need soincltde. in defense R&D planning and 'of broader. effects of the gram of studies are to beapplauded",and' similar initia-,management, the. evaluation impor- tives in other scientific organizations are tobe encour- intended results of research. The'objective is an focus-,of further aged. In all these efforts, however', it, isimportant to tant one and ought .to be the recognize tlit--tht.issues themselves are nevei- purely experimentation. technical. Real participation .nvolves acommitinent to Other aspects of science, technology, and security are G International Security 4171 e also troubling, some because of the effects on nonmili-°' Should the West, for example, encourage the Soviet ' tary areas The sharp increase in defense 'spending pro, Union to improve its ability to explore add. recover its posed by the administration will ha've important effects vast oil deposi4s? on the civilian sector, not only in the obvious impaction Many specifically technological questions wise, th, budget Engineers, already in short supply, will be hOwever: How is technology actually transferred and siphoned off in larger number to defense industry, ex- adopted? What is the real potential of diverting a piece acerbating the shortage in cons mer goods,,,,industties, of hardware from a, peaceful to a military application? V and likely worsening the nation's competitive, position. And whit actual difference wouth it make? Is reverse It will also tend to stimulate even more the momentumm engineering of a piece of equipment possible? At what of scientific and technological change applied to military cost'? On what time scale?, How long will it take fora hardware, since the level of R&D, aitd the idea's for new particular technology to, be developed?' applications, will be fueled by the larger cadre of sci- All too often, the debate over technology export con- entists and engineers. trols is characterized not only by political naivete,as Tide increase in defense spending may also affect the though it is simple to control the movement otechno- nation's universities, as they become concerned about logical Information, but also by lack of understanding the almost direct military application "of basic research. of technological realities. The importance df the issue, Signs of that are atipady 'evident in cryptological appli% and its potential for damaging the West politically and cations of theoretical mathematics, which have led to a economically, will require effective integration of the kind of voluntary censorship. 16, scientific and technological aspects in the poli'4 debates. Lastly: it Knust be noted that the Soviet Union has demonstrated its competence to engage.the United States in a high-technology arms race. Its technology may not be as refined, but its greater commitment of resources .INSTITUTIONS AND POLICY PROCESS to defense expenditures is presumed by many to be likely °Seeral themes run through the issue areas discussed to give the Soviets an'edge orsome sort cwer the United aboxe that bear directly on institutional and process prob- States in the latter part of this decade. lems of the United States in relation to the international Whether this prediction is accurate or not, its antici- consequences and use of science and technology. The pation has already fueled a massive new U.S. defense most common theme is that the international dimension oL increase One can only observe that a continued search policyis inadequately reflected in government policy for strategic superiority over a determined opponent is making, and that the fotrmal institutions of govern- the search for a chimera that can only distract from The ment militate against more effective recognition of in- real quest for security. , ternational Issues'..4ough this observationmay be valid for many of the responsibilities' of government, itis particularly, and surprisingly, intensive S EAST'WEST TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY in science and technology, matters. Another issue which' is likely to be of considerablemo- Other thanes that emerge relate to the need formore ment in the next`five years is the concern oxer the transfer effective integration of scientific and technologicalas- 44, of technology to the tasterrOloc that could enhance the pects in many policy areas, including more mechanisik military capability of the Soviet Union and its allies.!' for effectie analysis and anticipation of future impli- This, is an issue with a history stemming from the cations of science and technology; and the need fdrnew. advent of the cold war, and with recent attention as a national and international institutions. Somecomments result of the embargo on high technology imposed in on each are in order. respodse to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.Itis bedeviled by controversy between' the United States and its NATO allies over the costs and benefits ore the policy, INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION IN POLICY by uncertainty over the military,relevance of some "dual The history, geography, and rich resources of the United use'; technologies, by sharp differetces of view within States, all led naturally to a system dominated in insti- the AmericaR government, ydifferences of philosophy tutional form and political organization by domestic,con- over the value of denial in terms of its actual effects, and siderations. Adaptation, of the system to its new global bydifferences with indutry over enforcement policy. role, and to its new dependency on others, haFbeen slow There is little question about the importance of em: and halting, notwithstanding the enormous sums of pub- bargoing specific advanced military technology. Moving lic money allocated for this adaptation. At the detailed from technology with direct military applications, how- level of decision makingbudget decisions, negotia- ever, quickly leads to gray areas, with uncertainty over tions with the Conwss or with the Office of Manage- military relevance, over availability from uncontrolled mene and Budget, setting technical objectivesthe tra- sources, Or even of whether denial is in Western interests. ditional pressures dominate. I _ O 16 0 'I 472 HAAS POLICY OVrCook . 1, according to foreign policy criteria), this brie of the most significant ways in which thissituation eulty of ranking affects the involvement of science andtechnology with or something lireWrequires experrtation. d domestically or international matters has to do with developingcountries. In ?not* areaways must be f The national resources devoted to R&D ondevelopin,ent internationally to deal with situatkinein which apparent14 countries ..e probleins are bitifulli small, yet the U.S. government .domestic regulations directly imp4ngeotlier couritry's intertional trade po- lacks tin effective instrumentofor cooperatingwith that or significantly affect a neither sition/ somt situatisns,,tr answer may have to be large number of increasingly important nations or Lim interna- poor_eneugh to be eligible for direct assistance, norsuf- regulatory machinery within 'exist .0 regard to trade regulation, ficiently advanced scientifically to be competitivewith tional organizations. f\/ the move to ana- domestic research. A new institution ---theInstitute for -more imkttirkvill have to be guien.to effeeisof proposed regula-% Scientific and Technological Cooperationtwas pro-. lyze the broader econolialic r. ultintately left tions before regulations are "roved. .Rosed in '1978. authorized in 1979.'anrd valued 0P:its-zits° unfunded by the Congress. Something to serve rihe same International cooperation with fa changing climate of cost -, functions, whatever the form, is required. deserves more emphasis n-- I ... International Seciirity473 of science and technology. and't igi require not, only and more efficient regional or smaller alternatives do,not 0-eater/participation of scientiSts'and.enginsers, but also represent all interested 'parties. As representation fn or- more (beans for making credible analyses available to 111 - ganizationMiroa-dens, technical efficiency tendsto the ixiblig-.-)and ways of drawing the 'public into tit de- decrease.18 bates Partfcipatron alone, of Cskr,seblis not enough. Sci- This situation is unlikely to reach crisis form within entis' and eagineers do hot have, on the basis of their a few years, but Rit are the seeds of major confrontation:- professional training; superior weredentials for Raking v These seeds could mature quickly, if current budgetary 'whey U'mons ey are no,more free of bias than are reductions drastically reduce U.S. presence in interna- ether segmegtsof society. Participation by the scientific tional organizations. The adequacy ofinternatiogol po- technoldgical communities` implies a commitment %,;litical machinery is likely to be alfundamental question to understand the interaction between science and tech- of international/security. So many of the. functions the r..1S1 nolog)r and the-broader aspects of policy, anda com-\ world (and the United States) depends (2'n, -communi-, mitment clf time that makes such undastanding possible.cations, transport, nuclear materials control,resource .A..t,ntinocratic approach to the making of policy is not',information, health, agriculture, ocean nunetals, to say an "improvement over the present situation. nothing of international ncing and lendingwill fall One of the effects of science' and technolotyon both- increasingly under the auices of international organi- " r riat6i1 and international affairs is to make the 'future zations. Many of the i s 'nvolve developing coun- . muckmore relevant to the present_thati in earlier peiiods tries, but others involve o cts of mtciestainong-West- . ofhuh-Ian history To an unpreedented liggreeVay 's ernindustn41 countries stsontroversies. policy must 1i made the light of futuredevelopments. It is not a matter of ndi erence whether theorgani- partiailarly in science and technology theNselves,or in zations exist or work. The functions they perform must the side effects of,, increasingly, technological societies. tcarried out in some way by In organization, or bya 4cfhe' importance of more efforts atcredible objective limited number of countries, or by a country actingon anticipation of the future is obvious. .its own. The ultimate character of the international sys-a "tem and the place of the Unit/ed States in it may in large INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND STRUCTURE _ . measure be determined by whether these international . The need for new international instruments, or for mod- tasks are carried out through organizations with broad ifyirrg existing ones was mentioned bnefly in a few sub- participation, but so designed as to 'allow reasonable jectsdrug regulation, ocean mining, ;pace applica- efficiency, or by default aremanaged by 'efficient but tionsbut was not emphasized. The questions associated limited groups of wealthy countries. with international political machinery, particularly Ma- l i chinery designed to dearwitKrequ'irements growing out of science and technology, are many-and complex. The products of science end technology increasingly CONCLUSION create new issues and force traditional domestic issues" It may not be too far cr.rong to characterize this last issue, into the international environment. Unfortunately, ex- and all that have been-touched,on in this paper, asun- isting international organizations charged with -titaling, damental choiceS in the international system between with those issues are often inadequate. Most global or: efficiency and equity, and between hegemony andcon- panizations are now politicized along Nork'South lines, sensus. Thos are sufficient for any policy agenda. r-. NOTES AND REFERENCES 10 Ibid. p. 521. 11. Ibid. . ILester Thurow, "Let's Abolish Antitrust Laws." New York Times 12. Law of the Sea-draft treaty, United States pele6tion Report, (18 October 1980), "Resumed Ninth Session of.ttrehird United Natidhs Conference on the 2. See the paper by Charles Weiss on' pp. 475-490 of this volume. Law of the Sea" (Geneva: 28 July-29 August 1980). 3'.'Development Issues," 1981 Annual Report of the Chairman of---q3,...The paper by Kenneth Boulding on pp. 523-531 is devoted to one the Development Coordination Committee, U.S. IDCA aspect of the subject. 4..,The paper by Sylvan Wittwer in this volume (pp. 491-502) discus- 14 Itid. 4 ses this issue .9 15., Ibid., p. 527. 5. 492. 16 Science, vol 211 (20 February r1981), p. 797. 6 The paper by Michael Teitelbaum, pp 503 -511 of this volume, is 17. Office of Technology Assessment. Technology and EastWest devoted to the population problem in substantial detail. 'Trade (Washington, D.0. U.S. Government Pnntn1g, Office, 1979), 7 The, paper by William Vogely on pp 513-522 of this volume deals 18. Sec E.I3. Skolmkoff The Inmrnattonal Imperatives of Tech- with resource issues in detail nplogy., Research Series No. 16 (Berkeley: University of California, 0. Nevi, York Times (27 December 1980). . Irleitute ofinternational Studies', 1972), fin' a more complete discussion 9. See p. 518 of the paper by Vogely in this volume. of technology, and international organizationg ,. a United_ States Policy Toward Scientific and Technological-Developmentin the Developing . The Case for Mutual Benefit 3. Charles Weiss, Jr. * <0 INTRODUCTION The world faces a future quite different from that,op- timistically projected in earlier decades. International As the United States enters the 1980s, its foieign policy igflation"has resisted the prescriptions of a substantial objectives are being reexamined to fit a changed world range of schOog of economic thought, The federal gov- and a hew political climate: These objectives must adapt ernment's Global 2000 study reiterates the conclusion fo the greatly increased economic strength of Europe and of previous world modelS that the beginning of the Japan, to soaring energy costs coupled with threats of twenty-fifst century will probably seea 50 percent in- the cut-off of energy supplie,s and tosthe growing mil- crease in World population, a doubling, of real food jtary, financial, and political power of the developing prices, ftirther increases in the real price ofenergy, world. Pressures for economic nationalism in the form world-wide loss of forests and geiletic heritage, and sub- of barriers to imports, exports, and the flow of labor and stantial pressure on the world's water resources.' For the technology, are intensifying throughout the globe. first time, in the words of John Fairbank, the nations of U.S. technology, while still the envy of the World, no the world are in trouble together.' longer enjoys undisputed preeminenCe. Difficulties in The developing countries (also known as "less de- the automobile industry are only the most dramatic man- veloped countries'-' or "LDCS") are increasingly im- ifestation of the deterioration of American competitive- portant to the United States. They are a source of oil and ness in relatively labor-intensive manufactures. The lat- minerals, a market for exports now more important than est reexaminations' oftur standing in the international Europe and Japan, and a source ofitnmigration, both magketplace reflect concern that the United States may legal and illegal. That their political instabilitycan pro- even be losing its competitive edge in electronics, hith- duce serious geopOlitical consequences is seen in the fact erto one of its greatest strengths. that they have-been the locus of every war since World War II. This instability is expected to continue,as even relatively optimistic projections place the number ofpeo- ple Lin developing countries whose low incomes Science and Te,chtsology Adwaor. Wotid Bank, Washington, D.0 Thn paper reftects tht deny views of the author only Ne has written 11 in htpersonal capacity; it is not an expression them the most elementary requirements of decent living -pf"t&-pilletes-olthe World Bank. at 600 million in the year 2000.' 475 11--s I 476 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK U.S. relations with the developing world musttake less iaiwidiate political cost. Science and technology are be .-\ into account theextraordinary diversity of a group that also key elenients of many global issues that can includes rapidly industrializing countries likeBrazil, addressed only by international cooperation in which Korea, and Yugoslavia; oil exporters likeNigeria, In- developing countries must play an important part. Fi- n with doneSia, and-the-Persian Gulf states; poorbut ter no- nally, scientific and technological collaborat logically advanced states like India and China; raIdly these countries is essential to the solution of aumber' of important problems of scientific research. For all these growing exporters of agriculturalcommodities like Ma- ' laysia-and-the-Ivery-Coast;-and_relatively undeveloped, 'reasons, such collaboration is critical to the long-term resource-poor coures like those §fthe Himalayas and. objectives of U. foreign policy. It is also a two-way street. It can nolon ger be assumed the Sahel. solved simply Our relations with these developing countries must that the problems of development can be indus- also reflect the extraordinary progress thatthey have in by the "transfer of proven solutions" from the trialized countries. Such solutions can have serious un- fact .made. While technical assistanceremainslcrnOal, relations with these countries increasingly requirecollab- anfkipated effects if they are imposed without consid- oration to meet shared long-rangeobjectives. Sikh col- eration of the economic, social, cultural, and environmental laboration should in the long run replace thebenefactor - conditions specific to LDCs. What is more, the United States has much toleam to -clientrelationship, and further reflect the great diver- from developing countries in such, fields as urban trans- sity of LDC political systems, nationalgoals, and overall experimentm area attitudes to the United States, which rangefrom close port planning, where the Singapore_ cAngestion and 4 friendship to deep hostility.' As a finalcomplication, licensing has greatly decreased traffic and cov- pollution; low-cost public health delivery systems, where LDCs at all stages of economic development doctOrs" is a ering almost the entire political spectrumhave found it the Chinese experience with "barefoot model for tlit world; and the use of fuel ethanol as a in their inteWst to agree on commondiplomatic positions substitute for gasoline, where the Brazilian experiment and to negotiate collectively in theUnited Nations and the other international forums under the rubricof the so- illustrates both the techno-economic feasibility of land, and the called "Group of 77.". system when there is a surplus of arable k about by major changes The United States can thus find itselfin conflict with many social problems brought developing. countries, individually or collectively; on in agricultural land'use. Science and technology have already played substan- matters of great political importancte.In addition, Amer- these ican interests-often call for cooperationwith a particular tial roles in American policy toward LDCs. But country in one area even when they arein sharp conflict efforts fall far short of either meeting LDC needs or in another. We buy oil from Libya' and'collaborate on ,achieving U.S. goals. scientific fusion research with the U.S.S .R'to cite two.obvious There ate often politiCal reasons to engage in and technological collaboration forwhich the subjett of . examples. nce, cooperation withdeveloping countries that cooperation is unimportant. Scientific andtechno- on sh goals suld`not be automatically subordinate logical cooperation may in itself bd a gesture to sym- tuations in b .ateral`relations, the North-Southdia- ay to fl improyement in e, or other fo eignrelations concerns.. bolize or to help bring about a quick relations with a particular country. It may be an invest- In today's circ mstances, the U.S.national iterest, of cooperative spirit and hence the.p orities of U.S: foreignpolicyword ment in the long-term development developing cou tries, needs to be -redefined going,and of a cadre of people from the two countries accus- tomed to working with each other,brasquid.pro,,quo' beyond concernr the world's poortoaclude measures for a specific but substantively unrelateddiplomatic or to protect Am-ericaown economic and material well- political concession. This paper, however, stresses those being. Stience and tenology are invortant factors in results of scientific and both of these priorityeas, and should play a more areas in which the substantive technological collaboration serve shared interests; over important role in foreign policy towardL1)Cs. and above the simple existence of the, cooperativeeffort itself. . 1;.- These scientific and technological aspectsof devel- SCIENCh,.TECHNOLOGY ANDFOREIGN . .opment and of foreign policy defy easyclassification. 4 POLICY TOWARD DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. In this paper we distinguish fourinevitably overlapping critical dimensions bf categories: (1) areas RI technological developmentthat Science and technology are both interest, such as public development and' the underpinningof America's eco- are chiefly of humanitarian nomic and political strength. As -such,they are major health, sanitation, subsistence agricultufe, and energy technological devel- components of -U.S: policy toward the developingworld. sources for the poor; '(2) areas pf material long- Scientific and technological collaborationWith LDCs is opment in which the U.S. and LDCs share term interests, such as goodand energy; (3). areas of cheaper t resource transfer, andgenerally involyes S&T in Develop4 Countries477 national technological development, based on general cookstoves, made of clay and sand and con- s. U S. interest in the development0'f a particular country, structed by local artisans for SlO -25, have been ready and (4) areas in which the United States must balance adopted by test groups of bousewiv6, in Guatemala and its interest in LDC Jevelopment with other conflicting Upper Volta and are reported to reduce the consumption interests. Each of these areas is discussed in turn. of firewood by 40 Went!' Support is needed for both governmental, and nitgovernmental efforts (such as those of informal "aRpropriate technology" groups who TECHNOLOGIES OF HUMANITARIAN INTEREST are frequently in close touch with,the'poor) tcodeNelop Amencan policy toward die _developing eouirines has--andjapply-sirek-lec4mology at the grass-roots lev,e1 Such been strongly committed to helping meet the basic needs groups can in some countnes help 4ov ercome the social rt of poor people. We strongly endorse this policy as it and cultural distance between.urban -based scientists and ,,,eplies to scientific and technological development. Sci- technologists, trained along Western lines, and the poor entific and technological research has already had a major people,ip slums and .villages. impact on the lives of the world's poor Food production research has helped divelop improved vaneties of staples TECHNOkOGICAL COLLABORATION'BASE_D ON SHARED LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES like wheat and rice. Research, is advancing on "poor r man's crOps" like sorghum', nvllet and cassava. Recent In certajn areas of technological development, the United biomedical research promises major ailvances in the pre- States and the developing countnes share clearly defined vention and cure of parasitic diseases which afflict long-term interests, Food and energy are again clea hundreds of millions of pour people. And the develop- preeminent, although ft m a different point of viewiiihi Ment of low-cost, techniques for rehydrating victims of cholera' and severe diarrheas haslready saved many Food lives in refugee camps and in the poorest LDCs. According to the best available estimates, a continuation Advances in health-related technology occasionally of present trends through the 1980s will resultin.major produce a curious combination of relief,. from human food deficits throughout the developing world whichcan suffering and narrow economic benefit. The eradication be met only by greatly increased expos from North of smallpox eliminated an anclrit human scourge that AmericaSuch ,exports, while resulting in gains for had in recent years been A-11'0st entirely confined to American farmers,'Zan be achieved only jhroughmuch LDCs At a much more prosaic level,this histonc higher production costs and hence higher consumer achievement also saved the developed countries the siz- pricgs, due to increased investments in fertiliz water, able sums of money needed to vaccinate their own pop- and other inputs and the lower productivity of marginal ulations.and to venfy the vaccinations of immigrants and land brought into production: Future increase in oil visitors Smallpox could not have been ehinated with- prices and competition for land,between %waled fuel out the invention of the technique of-concentrating vac production and between agnature and urbitt..Iiption are cm Lion efforts in high prevalence areas,. and; the intro- likely to'raise production costs still further will soil duCtion of the bifurcated ndie foquick vaccination erosion caused by the decreasing willingness of farmers df large groups of people. - to pay the short-term costs of conservation measures. Another example of an area where humanitarian and- - In other words, American consumers face soaring food finanCial motivations coincide is in the prevention or cure, prices if the LDCs do not make major gains in agricul- 44 of diarrheal diseases. These diseases are among .,(Pan- tural productivity. Moreover, as a practical matter, here kind's major. health 4oblems. They kill millionsof chil- is every reason to believe ttfat U.S agricultural exports 1 dren in developing countries each year. At the same will continue to increase (unless the land they require 9, time, successful programs would be worth billions of is diverted to the production of fuel ethanol for domestic dollars, td such diverse interests as multinational corpo- use). Therefore, itiis in the direct interest of the United rations, _national governments, and the international -States to help LDts mobilize technology to increase their, travel industry, all-of whichisend large numbers of people agrultural productivity. countries for which they' art immunologically ill-pre- ' As- mentioned above, scientific anti technologioele-,r. pared Ffeallilf research in thestakaS is.thus directly iri .search has already made major cootnbutions to food crop America's practical self- interest, over and above its crit- production technology in developing countries. High- ical, but comniercially unattractive, humanitarian import. yielding varieties of wheat and rice Aogether withan Despite advances, much remains to be done. For ex- institutional structure for training, extension and research ample, it will 1Ze financially add instittaionally hopo that made it possible. to take advantage Of these varieties, sihle to provide s,anitStiOn facilities to urban population adapt them to local conditions, andconvince local farm- of LDCs by 1990 unless alternatives to water borne sew.; ers tp use them) helped to transform India from a sig- t erage are usedBetter low-cost equipinefit is also neede nificant infporter of food grains in the 1960s to a marginal to satisfy the energy needs of the poor. For eNampl exporter oil the mid-1970s.. This averted both a .iiaajor . . , . r 41. 478 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK k economic and huVian disaster in India add a substantial plants in ways that avoid both accidents and diversion - drain on the world's food production. of nuclear material. . In another area, scientific and technological research Science and technology are already ,working to solve enabled ttackmg of the meteorological patterns that in- CDC energy problems. Brazil's ability to replace much fluence breeding, swarming, and migration of the desert of the gasoline fraction of imported petroleum by fuel locust, and the satellite monitoring of Climate features ethanol, at competiti ve prices is largely due to indigenous favorable to its increase, greatly reducing the thi-eat of adaptive engineerinin locally' manufactured equipment the desert locust in the Middle East and East Africa. By for. crushing; fermentation, and' distillation. contrast, failure to -incorporate genes for rust resistance By contrast, anotber example from Brazil shows how into the wheat varieties distnbuted to farmers inanother4 undetestimation by the United States of the importance large; poor country led, directly to a crop failure and a of the place of indigenous technological development foreign exchange crisis a few years ago. can lead to unfortunate consequences. The United States, . . in accordance with itspoljcy of opposing nuclear pro- liferation, provoked an international incident by object- Energy ing to Brazil' s`purchase of German nuclear power tech- \../ As the United'States will for some time to come be a nology which included reprocessing equipment. Once net importer of fossil fuels, it is critically importantthat' the political need to s6,rid up to U.S. pressure had passed, ) a diversity of suppliers be mailable and that production the *Brazilians realized that they had overestimated their of fossil fuels for world markets be sufficient to meet needs for nuclear poNver, that the contract provisions for . demand. Since Amerjdan reserves are unlikely to in- technology transfer were not as favorable as they had crease beyond their current size, andsince many of first thought; and that the program was likely to tie up, Amenca's allies are inescapably dependent on foreign a disproportionate share of their engineenng manpower. oil, the discovery of oil anywhere in the world is an Brazilian energy gadlicy is apparently being readjusted 'important objective ofAnterican foreign policy. Energy accordingly. conservation and the use of renewable fonns of energy In addition to foOd and energy, there are a number of anywhere in the world are likewise strongly in \Amenca's other areas where scientific and technological coopera- interest-..-not only because they reduce world demand tion with LDCs meets definable, if less concrete," U.S. for fossil fuels but also because they reduce the amount interests. these 'range from financial interests to scien- of carbon dioxide that is being hddedeto the atmosphere tific and evironmentalconcerns.. to broad-based political and is affecting the, world's %late. issues. a , . Credible, geologicalestimates indicate that knuch of the world's undiscovered oil, natural gas, and other fuel Ecological and Cultural Heritage minerals lies beneath LDCs. Therefore, serious explo- . . ration and exploitation ofconventional energy, resources Much of A world's irreplaceable ecological and cultural in_these cOuntnes work to the advantage of the American hentage lies 'aiii the LDCs. This. heritage includes such public. In other words, the Utlited, States has a direct diverse treasures as ancient monuments and works of interest in seeing,that the LDCs have the capability to an, ancient cities (some of which still teem with people), carry out geological explorations, dealwithmultinational game parks, the habitats of such endangered species as °. oil companies,develop energy plans and pOlicies, pro- tile Bengal Tiger, and vast stretches of undisturbed trop- , mote energy conservation, and choose, adapt, and., when ical rain forest. These forests contain countless endan- necessary, createarenewable energy techpology suited gertd species of inestimable economic potential that con- stitute a genetic treasure incalculably greater than that 1°to local circumstances. t.. Moreover, to the extent that developing countries have of the celebrated snail darter. Anthropologists and eth- becomeelfAufficient in energy' through conservation nobotanists working inthese areas indicate that many and throUgh development of indigenous suppesboth more useful substances are likely to be found in the renewable and nonrenewablethey are less dependent primitive Medical lore that has given the world quinine, on spp lies in a particular part of ,thworld and less reserpine, and-digitalis. The report of the U.S.°Ilational prone t instabilities braught kby balance of Academy of Sciences, .entitled Priorities, for Research payment deficits. To.the extent that LD s avoid "show- in Tropical Biology (Washingtdn, D.C.: 1980), lays out plebe", development of nuclear power over apd above a dash prygram t9 salvage as much scientific value as techno-economically justified requirements, they will possible from the few years available in which to study tend to lessen the incidence of terrorism and weapons- these vanishing ecosystems. . grade plutonium proliferation. Finally; given the inev- Absence of adequate technology has been an important itability of the spread of nuclear power techtiology to factor in the adoption.1 f ecologically harmful develop- the American public has a *vital interest the ment practices in imanof these areas. To conserve these' ability of developing countries to operate nuclear ower treasures reqiires research in such natural sciences as 9 O S&T in Developing Countries479 ecology and wildlife biology and the study of the pres- internal and external competition, encourage excessively ervation of materials.It also requires institutional .in- capital-intensive investments, and discriminate agai7t 3 novations that further national and global aims by ad- small -scale industry. !° dressing local needs For example, the careful planning In most de4oping countries, there ia crucial need. of tourist facilities to enable local tribesmen to share in for development strategies that create productive jobs. tourist revenues shows promise of permitting East Af- These require policies designed to encourage investment, I I rican governments to conserve, their great game parks and if necessary develop, technological alternatives that both as ass '(s to national devtlopment and as part of the are both efficient and suited to labor-intensive operation. world's ecological Heritage. Such measures should be combined with policies to in- In a historical and philosophical sense, perhaps, these crease the demand for technology, to create'and strengthen treasures are the common heritage of all humanity. As scientific and technological infrastructure and human re- a practical and political-matter, this heritage will be lost sources, to build technological capacity in the productive unless its preservation is in the interest of the (usually .sector, and to remove incentives that bias technological hard-pressed) LDCs whose sovereignty prevails. If development toward inappropriately_ capital-intensive Americans wish these treasures to survive, it is in their solutions., interest to help developing countries to mobilize the tech- While these. are primarily matters of domestic policy, nology needed for their preservation.' there is ample room for international collaboratipn on the development of lor- intensive technologies. Re- Rapid Population Growth and Unemployment_ search has shown that earth for civil works can be moved These issues are'distinct in origin but together gibe rise by large numbers of workers as efficiently as by ma- to one of the most serious problems confronting the. de- chines, if proper attention is paid to the training of fore- veloping countries one that also affects the United men, the nutrition of workers, and the quality of hand States both directly and indirectly. The urban, unem- tools. Similarly, agnctillturarengineers at the Interna- ployed and underemployed are among the chief sources t41 Rice ResearchInstitute in the Philippines have of political instability in ,LDCs, many of which occupy designed a variety of law-cost machinery for the pro- geopolitical positions of'strategic importa*nce. The lack duction of paddy rice and" have. assisted local firms to of employment opportunity in both rural and urban areas manufacture them. of these countries'is the main pressure for illegal migra- Such research cannot by itself solve the LDC unem- tion to the United StateS. Forced by rapid population ployment problem. But it can demonstrate that improved- growth and regressivesystems of land tenurejo extend labor-intensive technology is ,feasible and can serve as their struggle for survival to marginally productive for- the basis for industrial strategies that give equal weight ests anddeserts, the world's poor are exerting devasting to growth and the creation'of productive jobs. environmental pressures in such areas.' These root prob/ lems cannot be bottled, up indefinitely. The population problem is 'ideally suited to the sci- Geophysical Research entific and technol9gical cooperation of both the public Research on7thefrOntiers of oceanography, and meteor- and private sector and both the natural and social s,0- ology, which is critical to the development of long-range ences. The development in the 1960s of such modern weatbeffdrecasts and to the location of undersea mineral contraceptive methods as the pill, intrauterine device, coreisurces, requires the full 'cooperation of developing and injectable contraceptive, made the establishment 'of untries. 'A major frontier of numerical climatology, family planning programs possible in LDCs. Such pro- the discipline that deals with the global circulation of the grams require a sensitive understanding of specific LDC earth's atmosphere, lies in the understanding of the trop- needs; of the risks of using industrialized nations' ap- ical. atmosphere and its interaction with the oceans and pfoaches, standards, and systems in inappropriate set- with temperate regions. Research in this area is needed, tings; and emphasis on the building of local capability. both for long-range weather forecasts in temperatere- 'Major technological needsappear to be in biomedical gions and for an understanding of the monsoons on which research related to human reproduction, and in efforts most tropical agriculture depends.. to develop.and commercialize promising contraceptive Many areas of critical interest to oceanographers lie teclinologies-that have passed the research stage. well within the 200-mile 'limit of coastal jurisdiction of unemployment problems orileveloping countries developing countries. These countries require assurance ' AreAre based to some degree on inappropriate patterns of that the research vessels are not a cover for commercial technological development. These are caused, in turn, or military espionage. More fundamentally, they should by lack of loCal technological capacity, lack of infor- enjoy full participation in the gathering and interpretation mation regarding technological alternatives, uncritical, of ,the data. Either goal would require a considerable copying of the technologies observed in developed coon- strengthening of the -technological capacity of coastal tries,'and government policies that overly protect against LDCs; a strengthening that is in the best interests of the 4 . 480 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK oceanographic research community and henceof er- Alleviating problems of rapid p2pulatien growth: un- L' ican foreign policy. employment°, and migration; Conserving the world's.cultdral and ecologicalheritage; Improving technology for exploiting undersea re- Threats ro the Global Environment sources'and for predicting long-term weatherconditions; Several critical global environmental problems arebe- Managing global environmental problems; yond the ability of any one country to addressindivid- improving health care technology and its availability ually and require a cooperative effort by allliations. P gg Scientists now agree, for example, that burning fossil Choices among these options depend on bothobjec- fvfels and clearing forests will increase the-c6bon dioxide tives and preferred approach. How can onechoose ra- content of the atmosphere to the pointwhere rit will' tionally between ,starving people, sick children,vanOh- change the world's climate in a significant' hough un- ing ecsystems, and stablegovernments?' predictable way over the next 50 years or so.'Mireover, Oif the global problems in which the U.S.stake is through a complicated chemical sequence, the use of clearest, foOd andtenergy are of urgent importanceand fertilizer may reduce the strength of the atmospheric lend themselves.to concerted international actionThe layer of ozone that protects the earth from ultraviolet accomplishments of the Consultative Group on Inter- radiation. national Agricultural Rese4ch (CGIAIDshow the power Developing countnes are major contributors to the loss of this approach in addressing the problemsorboth rich of carbon in soil and standing biomass through defores- and poor. It is essential that U S support toCGIAR be tation, and several of the more advanced LliCs'are or expanded, and that'a global program formobilizing en- soon will be major users of fossilfuels and fertilizers. ergy technology be quickly developedand funded so that of Both of these issues are rife with scientific uncertainty LDCs can take advantage of all appropriate sources nonrenewable. (For further ,and require monitonfig and research on a globa,Fscale energy, both renewable and The United States p'as a direct interest in the partici- discussion of .CGTAR, see the paperb9.Sylvan Wittwer . /pation of developingountries in globalresearch efforts in this volum&) on these issues. Inorder toparticipate in.such interna- Another urgent intrnational need is for action tostudy tional efforts, LDCs must have the scientific andtech- and conserve ecological and cultural treasuresthat will nological capacity to recognize that thejworld faces a otherwise be lost forever. Programs in this area should serious problem, that their participationis important, and begin immediately, but full mobilization will take some that they need to participate in appropriate international years to build up because of thescarcity of qualified research, monitoring, and remedial measures. Although personnel. LDCs will be justifiably covvinced that their primdry Population research is no less urgent and important need is for meteorologists, and climatologists who can than research on food and energy. Asubstantial inter- apply their Oolls to agriculture, transport, and other more national effort is already under way so thatpriorities fOr immediate problems, it should be possible to harmonize new international action are less clear. Given the cer- natilaf.and international areas of need. tainty of limited political and financial resourcesin the early 1980s, major initiatives on population research may $ctentific and Technical Collaboration! andForeign have to be deferred until somedegreeof consensus can Policy Goals be reached. The achievement ofsuch consensus is thus This broad survey of the scientific andtechnological an important policy objective.(Additional discussion of , Teitel- aspects of American foreignpblicy toward the devel- this topic will be found in the paper by Michael oping countries has identified numerous areaswhere baum in this volume.) long-range cooperation could contribute to.coaeretely important de- defined foreign policy objective& and to SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AS A DIMENSION OF (Technological *.stiints" .designed velopmyntal goal' . NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT for short-term impact on bilater'al relationshave been 49 deliberately excluded.) Among the long-rangegoals: A succession of U.S. administrations has viewed' the overall development of LDCs as in the long-run interests of the United States. In addition, the United States has _ Diversifying sources of oil for America and its allies; Freeing developidg countriesfrom economic and po- from time to time taken a specific interest in the devel- litical dependence on a small number of oilexporting opment of particular countries deemed of special geo- countries by encouraging energy, conservationancl the political interest.. discovery and exploitation ofrenewable and nonre- In either case, sound long-term developme,th requireg newable energy resources; attention to a broad range of scientific and technologi al Decreasing the long-run increase in world food prices considerations. In particular, local technological' ca by encouraging food production; ity is a prerequisite to an effective attack at the national -93 1. S&T in'Develbping.Couniries481 level, on virtually any of the global problems noted in In the earlyNstages of technological development, a this discussion. For example, lack of indigenous tech- country must concern, itself with the building of basic % nological capacity often leads LDCs'to adopt sophisti- scientific anti technologicagnirastruciurea university, cated technologies used'in developed countries, which minimal research. facilities and a technical library, fol- frequently wastes scarce capital and foreign exchange, lowed by scientific professional organizations and some contributes to widespread unemployment and severedis- form ofthational research council to administer fellow- ruption aisocial traditions, and leads to economic and ships, to coordinate research funding, and to relate re- political crises Lack of technological capacity also hin- search to the country's needs. An agncultural research ders efforts to develop local energy sources. High rates laboratory and the rudiments of industrial standards then . of population growth. coupled with develoPment policies . that fail to encourage the use of employment-c'reating Moravcsik and Ziman, in their classic article, "Far-1 technology, fuelpolitical unrest and the unwanted mi- adisia and Dominatia," have described the difficulties ,gration of workers. facing the scientist from a developing country who, with It The fields of science and technology are thus not the his Phi) fresh from a leading Ametican or European arcane preset-4e of specialists in universities and research university, returns home to discOverthat he must now laboratoriq but are basic to development strategy. To .assume resiltinsibilityfor building' a curriculum, a li- the extent that U.S. foreign policy is concerned with the brary, a workshop, a department, and sometimes a na- long-term health ofspecific developing countnes or of tional scientific communityall tasks for which he is the developing world in general, there must be a cleat completely unpreparedas well as carry op research understanding of the scientific and technological dimen- with inadequate funding and with few of the support . sion of development. This dimension includes not only services that young Amencan scientists 'take for granted,'" research and development, but the application of inno- The most difficult problem of technological devel- vative technologies and the choice of technologies from opment that of relating the fledgling scieitific and tech- "off the shelfIt also encompasses the formation of nological community tp the mainstream of the econ- human resources, the development of localapacities to omyanses in its most. elementary form at these early adapt, absorb, Create, and use technology, and the elab- stages. Every developing country. faces major decisions oration of national and seporal policies designed to en- which cannot be deferred until it achieves a 'reasonable v courage technological innovation, to. assess its effec- measure of technologiul,capacity. .Investment projects tiveness, and to guide it into socially useful directnins. must be planned anddevelopment poliCies devised. The The scientific And technological dimension of devel- infrastructure- inherited from the colonial, past must be opment further includes the capacity to adjust toad- maintained afid expandedao meet the demands of mod- vances in technology and to.the technological conse-, ernization. The past and probable future effects of the quences of such global trends N changes in the price of introduction of technology must be assessed and the energy and other key commodities. Included as well is range of techi4ologyan 'use must' be broadened. the capacity for informed participation in research and Except for a few -oil exporters. LDC resources such policy discussions on global technological and environ- as money', managers, trained pedOle, and institutional mental issues. and physical infrastructure are limite4. Political leadels As is cled-i-r-fiom the discussion thus far, our definition and economic planners are beset with pressing social, of technology is deliberately broadnamely, the appli- economic, anpolitical problems. Their staffs typically cation of knowledgir to achieve a practical objective. include able, highly trained professionals who are equal , Thus defined, technology includes both equipment (hard- to the best in any -country-. Buts they are usually fev. in ware)' and the institutions and management practices number add are. thinly stretched over an enormous range (software) needed for its effectiveness. of responsibilities. Morecker, they are rarely" familiar By this definition, technological developinent includes with science and technology and neither provide sub- the evolution of the technology in use in a country as stantial iesources for research for press for sorely needed well as the country's development of its capacity to technological development. Ttere is also a large, unmet, mobilize technologyi.e., to assess needs, 'resources, and urgent need for informed indigenous control of de- and challenges, arid to choose, adapt, create; and im- cisions concerning the overallconception and design of plement technology to meet defined objectives.9 Such policies and prejects,t to insure that technological de'-. capacities can be found in universities, technological veloprrient choices are,made with the full involvement, institutes, research laboratories, government agencies, understanding, and concurrence of local people, and with pnvate or publicly-owi4d consulting firms and producer local conditions and needs ettlly:in mind. . enterprises, or small volunteer organi4ations They re- The problems of undeveloped technological capacity quire skills derived from both the natural and social sci- are, acute in developing countries which have cone into ences, and these skills are needed in some form at all 'sudden wealth through the export of petro/eym. These- stages of development. .countries must somehoW invest yast sums quickjy,under 482 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK intense political, social, and commercial pressure while nology transfer, the threat or reality of nuclear prolif- simultaneously developing local capacity, often virtually eration, the supply and price of raw materials, and the from scratch. possible conflict between'the desire of an LDC to develop Thus defined, technological development lies at the its own industry and technology and that of the United heart of political stability and development strategy. To States to export its manufactures, agricultural products, the extent that U.S. foreign poticy is concerned with and services. lobg-run development in LDCs, It should seek to foster These considerations are present to, some extent in a strong indigenous technological capacity where it is U.S. relations with technologically less advanced coun- lacking. The development of local capacity should be tries, particularly oil. exporters, that are major powers an essential element of efforts to attack themore im- in global resource politics, important maitets for equip- mediate and specific scientific and technological prob- ment,and services, and potennal,compentons in capital- lems covered in the disdussion that follows. and energy-intensive products like fertilizers and petro-, Many developing countries, on the' other hand, have chemicals. Indeed, conflicts over such issues as controls , achieved a substantial degree of technological capacity. on the import of toxic substances are most acute in coun- In these more advanced countries, the basic technological tries that lack the technological capacity to draw up and infrastructure is typically in place, but in most, patterns operate an appropriate regulating mechanism. of development have been based on the impontation of As an additional complication, many of these issues/ foreign technology with little effort to learn to adapt it have entered tile North-Soutli dialogue in the form of to the local situation, to reproduce it under similar con- demands for improved access to proprietary technology, ditions,, or to improve it. These 'patterns have left tech- international codes of cond ct for technology transfer, nological institutions isolated from the economy. In these buffer stocks to stabilize therice of commodities ex- countries, moreover, economic policies that affect in- ported by LDCs, and intieThatio al arrangements for the terest rates, exchange rates, and wage and tariff levels, exploitatiolorDf undersea minels. These issues are have frequently been responsible for a pattern of tech- pressed most vigorously in international diplomatic for- ,'nological development that is inappropriate to local fac- ums by governments of more advanced LDCs who seek tor prices and that falls to create enough productive jobs. to advance the interests of their growing modem it Despite their relatively advanced level of technologi- sector. cal' capacity, these countries. hold some of the poorest For the U.S. policymaker these areas of conflict are people in the world. Too often social programs designed awkward in three ways. First, they are sufficiently-spe- to improve their lives or develop the informal sector cialized th4t they rarely attract the sustained Interest of neglect to encourage sc)ientific and technological research high-level officials. Second, many concern areas of coin- and innovation, resulting in little demand for the devel- mercial interest ip which the government is reluctant to opment of the simple, low-cost technology that could become directly Involved. Third, many of the remedies address, their most pressing problems. proposed by the LDC representatives may not, in fact. In the most advanced developing Countries, scientific be the most technically effective ways to address the and technological research, development, aid innovation problem. are important elements of market competitiveness.. In Although the U.S. response to these demands clearly some of their exports, these countries use up-to-date involves more diplomacy than technology, the most con- means of production, adapted to loCal conditions. They structive response would be tt) identify and study that also use modern techniques to identify and service their portion of the problem where North and South have, markets. Some have also begun to export technology, interests in common, to defincits'practical content care- - usually to. other developing countries," in the form of fully, and to devise and promote a mutually beneficial capitaLgoods, turnkey plants, licenses, and technical technical solution..Wheriver possible, this type of so- J service%. lution'could be pursued,designed, and implemented in- dependently of the broader controversy. The purpose is,, not to vin the diploma,tic confrontation but to make prog- CONFLICT AND COOPERATION INTECHNOLOGICAL ress yward solving the long-range problem. This a'p.-. DEVEUIPMENT proach seems more attractive than the alternatives, which U.S. foreign policy toward technological development are' (with some oversimplification) 'either, to "stone- irb LDCs, especially those that are moreadvanced, is wall," on to offer a less expensive solution which is bivalent. However much it may appreciate the role demanded by the developing countries and which the oftechnological capacity in long-term development strat- United States has good reason to believe would not be egy, the United States must consider a varietyof issues effective. The following pages briefly outline several in which its interests may conflict withhose ,of specific tentative., applications of this epproath to some Of the LDCs. Such issues include commercial competition, the thorny problems confronting U S. diplomats in areas oT "export of jobs" through overseas in4estment or tech: science, technology and development. S&T in Developing CouNries483 Transfer of Commercial in that nation promotes technological collaboration be- This issue has come to symbolize to the business com- tweeg private firms in the two countries, typically but munity all the technological aspects of foreign policy not exclusively providing for research and development towardthe developing world. Developing countries leading to the commercial application of an Israeli tech- have,-through a variety of diplomatic- forums, pressed nology using U.S. marketing skills Over the next several for an easing. of the costs and conditions of the transfer years, the same pattern,couid be extended to other rel- of commercial technology through a binding 'interna- atively' advanCed countries such as liorea, the Philip- tional code of conduct. Some have eveh asserted that pines, Taiwan, Thailand, Brazil, MeRico, and Jordan. knowledge should be a free good. Developed countries Comparablecomparable programs of coopePation might be arranged have replied that they did not have, nor wish to assume, trade or professional organizations. Mother in- control over such commercial transactions in the private teresting suggestion is that of Jack Baranson, who _As sector,' that commercially useful 'knowledge was costly pointed out the need for a special facility to finance the to produce and deserved its full markeevalue, that most front-end costs of a technology supplier in the United of the ;chnology needed by developing countrieswas States who must incur expenses for technical services available without restriction and even without charge, months or years before he receives royalties based. on and that anyabuSes could best be 0 103 I S&T in Developing Countries485 E., r it would be to everyone's adVantage to help LDCs to Egypt, Saudi Arabia,ond Spain. Many of theseagree- build up their own capacity to deal with these matters ments have resulted in large and important programs. and protect their own interests. . From the point of view of U.S. foreign policy toward An analogous situation exists in the field of pharma- the developing countries, the chief function of such ceuticals, where there is an obligationnot always per -' agreements has historically been to improve the atmos- fectly honored in practices to warnephyscians and con- phere of bilateral relationships. Such efforts have fol- 41. sumers of possible side effects and contraindications. lowed a prescribed order. first, the exchange of athletic Flere, too, risk-benefit factors may be different in an and cultural attractions; then the scientificmission to LDC than in the United States. A country in the midst arrange a cooperative agreement, then, the addressing of an epidemic may be willing to license a vaccine or ,of "real" issues. The objective of the scientific mission drug with significant side effects, even though there was to create some cooperative effort between.the United would be no need to accept these risks in the United States and the other country, the subject ofcooperation States where the disease is virtufally nonexistent. was unimportant and could be left to the scientists, who this issue has become particularly acute in thecase typically chose subjects where research capacity in the of the injectable contraceptive Depo Provera- Depo cooperating country Was strong, regardless of its rele- Provera has not been approved for contraceptive use in vance to national needs. Conversely, if bilateral rela- the United States because of studies that suggest a pos- tionships were chilly and a thaw was considered unde- sible link with cancer, and other side effects. Numerous sirable, there has been little or no provision for scientific 'LDCs1 nevertheless use this substance and request that and technological cooperation. the United Stales provide it, arguing that their population Recent bilateral agreements with China and several problems are urgent arid that the risks of pregnancy and African countries show an encouraging shift from this childbearing in their countries far outweigh the drug's pattern, at least in the choice of the subject for coop- possible hazards. eration. Formal agreements were preceded bysurveys It is a mistake'to impose U.S. conditions on LDCs of each country't needs to identify the best subjects for and to argue, as some U.S. groups hav'e done, that drugs bilateral cooperation. These agreements ranged well be- such as Depo Provera should not be exported because yond research to include, for example, collaborationin they carry risks unacceptable in this country. In the end, water resources planning in major Chinese riverbasins. 4 it is the LDCs themselves, through development of their Another interesting bilateral experimentis the U. S.- own regulatory capacities, who will decide the appro- Israel Binational Fouendation for Industrial Research and priateness of any imported technology. Development, mentioned earlier, which encourages s, commercially motivated enterprierto-enterprise tech- 1 nological cooperation in the private sector. The work of CURRENT U.S. POLICY AND PROGRAMS this foundation provides, to this author's knowledge, the We have not attempted a comprehensive review Of U.S..4only example in thelU.S. federal government of direct wrergrams for scientific and technological coopdation suppcil to industrial research and development awarded with developing countries, or of the policies that kinderlie on purely 'commercial criteria. .them. What follows is a brief overview of existing policy and practice, with particular emphasis on bilateral pro- grams, for the purpose of comparison with the ap- DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE . proaches recommended in'ihis paper, FOr convenience, we distinguish four broLl, and in Science and technology have formed part of Ame,rican some cases overlapping, mechanisms for U.S. bilateral bilateral development assistance for many years. As- 'scientific and technological cooperation with LDCs. sistance programs have supported, for example, research on human reproduction, forestry, water resources -pest (1)Bilateralagreements with countries of geopolitical 'control, and tropical- diseases. These assistance funds importance; have also supported a useful series of publication&by the (2) Development assistance programs; National Academy of Sciences that conveys, in compact 4. (3) Extension of domestic progranN into the intern- form, the state of knowledge in relatively unexplored . iionaisphere; fields of science. and technology which promise appli-, (4) Programs set up in pursuit of global policy objectives. cations of high economic pcitential in LDCs. Examples a include ferrocement, unexploited species of tropical leg- ? umes, and fast-growing trees. BILATERAL AGREEMENTS` "Since1973, the objective of the foreign aid prograni TheUnitedStateshas signed agreements of bilateral, has bedWtolielp meet the needs of the desperately poor . . cooperation in science and technology with"(fhen).ede- for food, health, education, and in recent _years, fuel- veloping countries as diverse,as New Zealand, China, wood. This humanitarian objective has been a prereq- . as. 486 AAAS POLICY, OUTLOOK uisite to continued congressional support for. the devel- INTERNATIONAL EXTENSION OF NATIONAL PROGR,AMS opment assistance budget and has inspired efforts critically Many, programs developed for selentific and technolog- important in the global struggIe to alleviate poverty. ical research in the United States have been extended to Assistance programs unclettlk new pOlicy support the ° other countries. The National Aeronautics and Space development ofresearch capaiye in these fields,an the Administration (NASA) has supported expenmental ap- poorest LDCs, which are4Ow the sole recipients of de- plications of satellite techniques of remote sensing in velopment assistance. In addition, a major new group developing countries, the Communicable Disease Center of Orograrns, called the Collaborative Research Support and the U.S. Department of Agriculture have. respec- ,Programs, supports the blinding of U.S. capacity to col- tively,investigated diseases and ,,insectsthat posed laborate with food and nutrition researchers in LDCs. threats ro the United States: and the U.S. Geological The shift in emphasis to the proble'ms of the poor has Survey has studied eaittliquakes and volcanic\. eIuptions also increased interest in low-cost technology. Since in foreign countries to prOvide insight into similar events ,,much of the technology, used to sve comparable prob- in the United States. lems in industrialized countnes isar too expensive for I' . All of these programs provide technical asSistance to poor LDCs, development assistance agencies have been their LDC counterparts, although more as a by-product forced to consider innovative solutions to problems such than as a pnmary objective. Increased attention.to this as health-services, nutrition, and basic edueation,ln or- technical assistance could, at relatively low cost, greatly der to meet these needs at a cost low enough that the increase the effectiveness of these program's in building approach can be extended to large numbers of people LDC' problem-solving capacity. and contribute to the within the re-sources available to thdeveloping country: global stock of knowledge on these subjects of world- Several U.S. Congressmen have indicated a further wide interest. special interest in "capital saving" technology as the key to meeting the needs of the poor, and have added PROGRAMS IN,SUPPORT OF GLOBAL OBJECTIVEg provisions to fOreign aid legislation to ensure the use of such technology. This has promptcl support to com- By far; the major thrust of U.S pursuit of global policy' munity action groups in LDCs capa. b leof applying such objectives has'been in program's to abolish poverty But technology to" the needs of the poor through the U.S. there are also several U.S :supported programs that *deal Agency for International Development (AID), the,,Inter- with issues of global significance not directly connected merican Foundation, and Appropriate 'Technology with poverty. International, U.S. participation in the Global Atmospheric Research These efforts have been useful cdrrectives to the tend- Program of the World 'Meteorological. Organization is ency of development assistance agencies to apply -fa- *primarily intended to provide the scientific basis for long- miliar technologies even when these ,are unsuited to the range predictions of U.S *eather. This objective can problent at hand, and have given newiegitima.cy to tech- , only be fulfilledthrough international cooperation. as it nologies that might otherwise have been regarded as requires a global effort to fill major gaps in meteorolog- unworthy of a modern country. On the other hand, they ical (and to a lessef extent oceanographic) dtha Man run the danger that "appropriate technology". may be of the most inipor,tant of these are in the tropics. For this rejected as second-rate or dismissed as the latest fad or reason. U.$. participation in this program, although not panacea without properconsideration on its merits.' . primarily intehded to assist developing countries, pro- The United States has made major contributions to vides tens of .millions of dollars for the study of the multilateral agricultural research on food. cropproduc- tropical atmosphere, a subject of critical interest to these tion, and to biomedical research intropical diseases and countries. human reproduction. It has also givensubstantial support Emmples of efforts,inteledto fulfill global objec- to building the needed capacity forcarrying out research tives are the international programs of the Department on these problems.. The food cropreseal-1h financed by of Energy. The Department has published long-range CGIAR has been aii outstanding success. As afunding assessments of the energy needs of Peru, Egypt' and mechanism, the group is alrea4 serving as a modelfor several other iountries. While the prime objective of this the financing of research in ficidS which lend themselves program is to slow the, spread of nuclear power. its ex- to integrated global programsunder international man- ecutors quickly realized that they 'bad no choice but to agernent and control, Such research hassometimes taken try to take the point of view of,their "-customers" and place in international centers, but in other caseshas taken to provide them with full assessments of all their energy ate form of a network of research institutionsin devel- options, including nuclear power Such an approach, it oped and developing countriet, such as thatof the In- is hoped, Will discgiurage nuclear projects thatliie tegrated Program of Training and Research onTropical tivated by prestige and that lack techno-economic jus- Diseases of the World Health Organization. tification. On the other hand %these studies have not at- . S&T in Developing Countries487 . tempted to build local capacity for needs assessment and public healthare addressed by integratbd research on have sometimes tended to projeccy.S. conditions arid, technology policy and institutional design. Finally,it requirements onto the developing countnes without fully gave developing countries a, role in the management of evaluating. the alternatives. the Institute through the establishment,ofan advisory t council on which they were to be represented. All these were important advances. , GENERAL ASSESSMENT . - Congress 1)as not approved the establishment and It has long been apparent that U.S. programs of scientific funding of such ah independent IStC, allowing instead and technological collaboration suffer from fragmenta- only a stnall increase in the budget-for science and tech- tion, omissions, and lack of funding or institutional sup- nology within the regular AID structure. AID has estab- port within' the government. As Eugene Skolnikoff has lished the position of Scientific Advisor ine Office of pointed out in his "synth sis" paper .in this collection, the Administrator, and is making arra ehts to fund it has proven very'difficult to fund programs which can research on topics identified by the National Academy neither compete at par with the best of American science,. of Sciences through its Board-on International Sdighce nor be justified. as aid to rural development in the poorest and Technology for DevelopMent. LDCs. These are important priorities, but surely do not This is not the place to assess the prospects of some span the whole set of objectives of American foreign -version Of ISTC for eventual enactment, or to_ critique policy or of the overseas aspects of American technology the efforts of its planners why worked under difficult policy. of time and politics to design it and o justify As early as 1971, the National.Academy of Sciences it to the Congress. Sbme of the participants hat effort recommended the establishment of an International Del have suggested in personal conversations with the 41athor velopment Institute, separate from AID, as a focus fat that the difficulties were no more fundamental than the scientific and technological cooperation with LDCs as failure to convince skeptical members of Congress that distinct from the transfer of resources. This proposal was the laudable objectives of ISTC, to which the Congress revised and brought up to date and' a thorough study by was basically receptive, could not be achieved within the Brookings Institution of the bureaucratic difficulties existing organizations. A few are even convinced that faced .by AID in its attempts' tosupport scientific and scientific and technological cooperation will become the technological programs." major thrust of U.S.. bilateral development assistance In 1978, building on the Brookings study, the White over the next several years, partly because science and Hopse Office of Science and Technology 44 pro- technology is the area in which the United Stales has the posed an Institute for Scientific and TechnWgical CO- most,to offer, and partly because this kind of cooperation Qperation (ISTC) as a mechanism to encourage and co- is cheaper than financing large investment projects. ordinate scientific and technological cooperation with Others, by contrast, cite the uneasiness of politicians LDCs. Establishment of ISTC was to fill sevelal gaps at the premise that science and technology can fully- in Ue institutional framework for dealing with techno- contribute to LDC needs only if scientists are given a logical problems in LDCs. to increase support to research greater voice in such effortsantrare able to use resources and development, free of the pressure of the immediate without the constraints of existing organizations. priorities,of.AID programs and of the state of bilateral In any case, the refusal of the Congress to appropriate relations with cooperating countries; to enable research funds for the ISTC or to contribute to the U.N. Intenm support for projects not directly,related td "basic human Fund,'4 combined with the increasing unpopularity of needs"; and to develop.progfams of scientific and tech- foreign assistanceas shown by the annual difficultieS nological cooperation with middle- incon?e countries faced by the foreign aid bill in Congressshow clearly such as Brazil, Mexico, and Korea, which are "'gradu- the present lack ,of a strong domestic political constit- ates" of aid programs and on the way to becoming major uency fbr improved scientific and technological coop- industrial' powers. eration with the developing world. The' uthor.would The 1$TC proposal reflected increased understanding, suggest that it is time to seek to create or strengthen the of the complex role of science and technology in de- domestic political constituencies for such activities. velopmentas an important dimension of development A likely baSic constituency would seem to be the U.S. rather than a'fix, ' a panacea, or a stunt. It recognized scientific and technological community. However, with that technology covered a broad range of levels of so- the exception of a relatively 'small number of profes- phistication, from satellite-based remote sensing to im- sionals.concerned with scientific and technological de- proved clay-and-sand cookstoves. It recommended that velopment in LDCs, there is an absenceof strong interest sociological and institutional constraints to the diffusion in this field among much of the leadership-of the U.S. of improved technology be explicitly addressed, and that scientific and` technological community. Proposals for particularly complex problemssuch as nutrition and support of research on problems of interest to LDCs, ". .... A 488- Ai\ AS POLICY OUTLOOK " whatever their Intrinsik, sLkntifiL interestor pgcticalim- species may become extinct in cominecades sv ithout portance; have been regarded as coalpetnion for budget has ing been catalogued. let alone studied for ptssible resources with the "real" interests of the,Amencan sLi- ecoponiic value or scientific interest.'6eopular support entific'community namely, those problems defined by is needed for research programs td survey sand study pui-ely domestic interests of the United States. *existing flora and faunarin these areas. and ecologically The hp been some change in 'this attitude, partly, suskinable strategies forheir protection. in several poor _because of the expansion of scientific and technologic-al countries these areas occupy much of the remaining un- cooperation with China, the Middlc East. and (to a lesser used arable land. extent) Africa. Technical journals such as Stroke,The Public pressure might also be useful in cons incing Nen St ientist, and the Bulletin of the St ientists timber companies to adopt sustainable approaches to for- haveNbegun to devote increased space toto issues concern- est exploitation. even in countries Jere this'approach ing developing-cotintriBut there has been far too little may not be sLrupulously required or even encouraged effort to convey both te human importance and the* by local authorities. 'Such' an approach might well be intellectual challenge and excitement of the scientific and made unofficial U.S. government policy.. and urged on technological problems confronting the developing world. U.S.-based companiesmuch as foreign policy officials American scientists should. in the, name of devotion occasionally urge financial support .to a shaky govern- to'thepursuit of knowledge. assume some responsibility ment (Cf special geopolitical importance. A for the professional swirly al of their colleagues in LDCs. The distinguished Dutch economist ,Jan Tinbergen has They should enLograge:Amencan funding agencies 'to pouited out.the naturalalliancebetween consumer ad-, make available the relatively small sums needed to keep vocates in developed countries'who seek to lower Lost scientific research alive in these countries. and should and- improve the quality of products in themarketplace. acquire the knowledge needed to be able to prqpare stu- and the advocates of increased trade with LDCs. whose dents from these countries for the special problems they products tend to he at the low-Lost. low- quality end of will face on their return home.'' the spectrum: Their combined efforts could lower prices Popular interest amoryz Americans in the scientific and of an entire array of products 'Yet Amenan conCumer technological problems of LDCs has been limited to sub- groups have this far spent surprisinglylittle of their jects, that echo the domestic concerns oforgani'zid political capital in op,pfosing protectionismIt is strongly groups._Public interest groups have rendered a useful min the interest of the American consumer both to insist service in spotlightinthe particular technologicalprob- Un adequate measures to ensure innovativenesin Amer- lems faced by women in developing countries,as:well rcan industry and to place, no obstacles beforeand in as the need to protecLehdangered speciesfrom com- some Lases so assist the technological capaLity merical exploitation, industry. Occasionally, however, the projection of domestic political issues onto the (rerun conditions of LDCs results in a somewhat distorted perspective. We have already discussed the difficulties of'applying arguments CONCLUSIONS designed for U.S. conditions to the problems of pesticide and contraceptive use in LDCs. There are many similar A major expainsion and redefinition of scientific and tech- policy issues. The use of infant formula is heavily pro- nological cooperation with the,LD. C s is needed; notonly moted to the poor in LDCs who cannoi afford and act for humanitarian or charitable reasons, but to address quently misuse it. Yet, such products are as essential to major concerns of U.S. foreign policy fo'r the 1980s: working, ;not hers there as they are here. Here public\ food, energy, global political stability, and the future of pressure to discourage irresponsible advertising canhate the world environment. The need for greater cooperation a useful effect. is especially acute in food. energy,,and population. Ef- Wages, working conditions, and safety and environ- fective bilateral and multilateral .programs are already mental safeguards in most developingconntries'Ire far under way in food crop production iesearch ,Thesede- below U.S. standards. In many cases, scandalous con- servet ontipued support'and expansion In addition, there diAns could be improved at little cost. Yet, LDCs can- is an urgent, need fOr international efforts to assist de- not afford the unquestioning application of te standards veloping countries to develop indigenous sources of en- typical of advanced countries. Here the effos of U.5.- ergy. Such a program could be readily designed, and based labor unions, to raise the awareness oC their col- implemented..." !agues in LDCs are far more effective 'than calls for While the urgency and importance of the population protection agNnst "cheap labor."' problem is no less acute, the priorities foi- international By co;npanson. U.S. environmental and. consumer tech'nological collaboratioci in this field are less clear and groups have been curiously inward-looking. Americans requirefurther study. Thisshould be cavried out without mobilized to save the snail ,darter, yet have paid little delay so that effective action can be undertaken' attention to predictions that hundreds ofthousands of We have also identified needs fdr international sci- 0 - .6 , 4 --,, . . . .. S&T in Developing Countries489 * entitle and ' technological collaboration in the study of, There is no reason fot LDCs to fx..tr In Am ertcah parasitic and diarrhea! diseases'. and: for :the study of 0)14 based on Self- interest On the contrary, this.is eeosystems of great eco.norme potential, such as the hu- their.best 'reason to hope for a. consistent policy`It is mid tropical rainforest, vhieh are in aeute,danger.of unreasonable and unrealistic.to apect anyicountry to disappearance. Finally. there is a general need to support purstyi for long a polity which does not derive from its local capability to mobilize s'Lrenee and teehnoleigy at owp interests. The 'morning Atvenean administration the national level as a part of Ov erall national development has emphasized its intention to put U.S. interests at,the center of its foreign policy. While these suggevions; taken individually, may be . relatively modest. they add op to a sutf,ttantial redefi-. , A fully coherent andirkgrated policy toward the tech- ninon of American .attitudes and interestsN, is-a-% is' the rTlogical development of the 'de\ eloppig countries no role of science aniteehnology in foreign policy toward doubt must await the elarifieation 9f public attitudes to- thedevelopufg-world. ward the technological development of our own country While seie4mific and technological cooperation along It would clearly be useful'to build a consensus in this to the lines suggested in this paper do not necessarily give area, since the most important international teehndlogieal rise to technological speetaeylars, tiley do directly affevct issues v is-a-vn, LDCs abut o9e aspect of a broader U S voter interests in lower food costs, 'freedom from debate on theresponse othe Udited States to i'ff inter- petroleum eut-offs, secure supplies of minerals. the eoredepcngenee with the rest of the world This response tinued expansion of die world eeonomy, and the expan- requires a, substantial effort to refurbish American com- sion of wurld tgmandrfor technologically sophisticated- petitiveness and innovative capacity , which in turn will C.S. equipment and sere leesTh.ey are essential parts require a major rethinking among .labor.' management. ,,japf any -strategy to eradicate the worst aspects of poverty consumers. and the public' An interesting step in this/ and to conserve the globalb env ironnient. They are im- direction Nka recently taken by. the aonomic Policy portant.ttF any strategy to assist the long-run development Unit of the United Nations Association of the United of LDCs as a-whole, or of such specific countries as the States, in its report entitled The Growth of the I,' S and United \States wishes to ...support for strategic or .other World onomieS Through Te(hnologhial .innotation reasons. And they are intrinsically challenging and ex- and Transfer.' ..- citing at a time when American popular 'mues( is re- The world of the 1980s'is small,interdependent, and ors turning to scientific ant. technological advances. fragile American security depends on mine mic stability These facts can be used as the basis for efforts to and growth, here and abroad, a diversified supply -of. -expand public. support fur scientific and teehnoliigieal resources Prom many parts of the world, and preservation collaboration with LDCs. as well as to gain support of the global env ironinent. It also depends on 'relief of within the U.S. scientific and technological community the -misery of poor people, development of productive for such work - Policies and programs based on shared employment opportunities. and control of p,opulation long-term goals, should complement, not replace, current growthIt may well Be necessary to. redefine public and policies based on humanitarian concern for the poor in ottClal concepts of the national interest, which up to developing countries. now have.tended to refer prjmanly to military and stra- . , There is. a need to continue and in some cases to tegic concerns. - expand research on small-farmer agricuhure, forestry:.%- All of these goals require that LDCs build the tech, renewable energy; parasitic diseases: low-cost housing nologicalcapacityto become full members of the inter- and sanitation, and othet telds of specific interest to the national community . Their technological development poor. However, political support on this basis4ts palpably deserves an important 'position on the foreign policy diminishing In any case, purely humanitarian concerns agenda of die...United States. American resources are do not provide a satisfactory basis tor dealings with oil- plentiful and can readily be mobilized Although U S' exporting or middle-income developing countries. or in- initiatives. have achieved major impact, they continue to deed with the kmddle.c lass of thpoor developing coun- fall far short of efforts that ,should be undertaken in our tries-who, after all, are the h 139wer, own interest., ' . NOTESAND REFERENCES 3' World Bank, World Development Report (Washington, D.C.. 1978), p 33 4For a gloti51 overview of the common interests of the United I Council on Environmental Quality,nd the Department of State! States and the,developing countess m.scientific and technological col- The Glethal 20(X) Report to the Pretut(nt Entering the Twents-First laboration, see J Ramesh and C Weiss, Technology for CenturN.-2. vols(Washington. D CGovernment Printing Offfice. (World Developntent (Nest, York. Praeger Publishers. 1979) 1980). vol. I. 1;-2 . 5. John M Kalbermatten. "Appropnate Technology for Water Sup-'' 2 John K Fairbank. The Canted States and Gluna (Cambndge, ply and Sanitation Build for Today. Plan for Tomorrow," lecture to MassHarvard University Press. 1979,110 edition) the Institute of Public Health Engineers, 18 November 1980 4 00. 4 1 I0 490'AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK 6, Gautam S. Dutt, "Field Evaluation of Woodsto'ves," paper pre- 10. Michael JMoravcsik and J M Ziman, ';Paradisia and Donii- pared for Voluhteers in Technical Assistance, Vv'ashington,'D.Q., 19 natia. Science and the Developing World," Foreign Affairs, vol 53 February 1981, p 5 (July 1975); pp, 699-74. ' 7. Overcrowding by poor people in need of Mousing also poses a CI See Jack Baranson, North-South Technology Transfer Finantmi and Institution Butlding, Lomond Publications, 1981 (P 0 Box. 88, major danger to urban historical treasures, such as the great traditional Mt. Airy, Md. 2j1171), pp. 143-46. Arab market of Fez, Morocco. 12 C V Vaitsoly "Government Policies for Bargaining with Trads- 8 Council on Environmental Quality and the Department of State, national Enterprises in the Accitusition of Technology," in J Ramesh The Global 2000 Report to the President, volI, pp 36-37 and C Weiss: lirobtlizing Technology for World Development, J N. *fuller definition of technology is given by the Economic Policy Bauman, "International Technology Flows for Develbpment Sug- Association of the United Nations Associatiofi of theUnited States gestions for U S Government and Corporate in ibid "Technology means human knowledge used to achieve ends. Thus it 13Lester Gordon, Courtney 'Nelson et al., Interim Report and includes everything from the manufacture of computers to the marketing Assessment of Development Assistance Strategies (Development Dis- of breakfast cereals, and from the use of public health measures to cussion Paper #74, July 1979, obtainable from Harvard Institute of prevent disease to the growing of more abundant and better crops. It International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass ) also includes the knowledge of how to organize society in order 'to 14 The proposed ISTC formed the centerpiece of the U S position achieve desired ends (corporations, educational institutions, health care at the U N Cfnference oncience and Technology for Development organizations) and hew to cope with related consequences.': Economic held in Vienna, AtAtria, in August 1979 U Spar vpailbn in the Policy Council of the United Nations Association of the United States conference wasconstructiveand critical to even the mNest degree of of America, The Growth of the U.S and World Economies Through success achieved by that conference The main tangible result of the. -Technological Innovation and Transfer...1;4m York United Nations conference was the creation of the U N Interim Fund oil Science and Association of the United States of Amen& Inc,1980), p13 The Technology for Developmemw multilateial fund to support the de- author has dehned technological capacity as The ability to make velopment of scientific and technological capacityin developing technological decisions that will influence the allocation of resoures countries and the efficiency of production units [This 'goes well beyond 15 For numerous ideas on this's'ubject, see Michael JMoravcsik, technological infrasActure, by which term] we understand the public Science Development Tovtard the Building of Science in Liss Devel- and private institutions which provide technical sarvices for thselec- oped Countries (Bloomington, Ind. PASITAM, n d ), and the author's tion, adaptation or creation of technologies, for pre-investm nt and article. "Science for Development What Individual Scientists Can project implementation work, for qu'ality control and trouble-ooting D ." in V Rabinowitch and E Rabinow itch. eds Vievis on Science, in production processes and for technological managemen and planning T chnolog} and Development (New York Universe Book., 1975) -both at the macro and the micro level." Charles Weiss, Mario Ka- 10 Here a special exception must be made for the World Wildlife menetzky, and Jairam Ramesh,Tuchnological Capacity as an Element Fund. which is sponsoring a unique experiment in ecology to determine of 'Development Strategy,' Intercienciu vol5 (Marchi-Apnl 1980), the minimum size of ecological reserve suited to the conditions of the p X97 Brazilian Amazon. O 1( 4 a a 10 (N. Q. United States Agriculture in the Context . 0 of the World Food,Situation. Sylvan H. Wittwer* 4;k INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND may be alternatively routed as food. feed. fiber. or 1* .2 ergy. Plants contribute to world food production 94 per- Agriculture is the world's oldest and largest industry and cent of the total edible dry matter by weight. Animals its first and most basic enterprise.' More tharc half the contribute 6 percent. Most animal products are derived people in the world live on farms. Food is first among in turn from plints. our needs. Events Of the past decade have focused at- Achieving an ailequacy and secunty of food supply tention on a new element of national power and safety. for all people is both a humanistic goal and a mark of the control of vital resources, one of which is food. progress. This paper focuses on science and technology Renewable agricultuial Production will become increas- as they relate to theit goals, which are by no means ingly important in resource bargaining. The potential of easily Managed or predictable. In the mid-1960s, for agricultural production as a strategic resource interna- example, a two-year drought in India and Pakistan tionally and, within/ the domestic economy is under brought catastrophic shortages of food. The trend review.2!":, reversed by a green revolution in the late 19606. Poo The renewability of the products of agriculture comes harvests in 1972-1974, however, produced a new surge as a result of '.`farming the sun." Agriculture, through of despair. This was followed by a wave, of optimism the production of green plants, is the only major industry in the late 1970s brought by surpluses, low prices, and that '!processes". solar energy. Green plants are biolog-, record production. Finally, in the early 1980s, we again . ical sun traps. The aim of agriculture in crop production face prospects of worldwide shortages and runaway food is to adjust plant species to.locations, planting designs, prices. cropping systems, and cultural practices to maximize the More than 70 percent of the current world population biological harvest of sunlight by green plants to produce (4.3 billion) and 85 percent of the projected population useful products for people. Many products of agriculture .growth by the year 2000, are found in the less developed countries. A large part (80 percent) of the absolute, as well as the relative, poverty is fotind in the rural and, agricultural sectors. Many of the rural poor in developing Director. .Agficultural Expenment Station. Michigan State University. East Lansing. Michigan. countries are landless laborers or small farmers with in- n 491 110 / 492 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK sufficient land and capital to earn an adequate living from is nsing affluence. Eipanded productivity ptr unit land farming. ,area, per unit timejand per unit cost is the primary source Several.hundrecis of millions of people are chro nically' for the projected:3 to 4 percent yearly Pioduction'in- inalnounshed.. More than half are children and more of creases needed. These increases, according to the Food theiti are women than men.' Food' production must, be and AgriCulture brgangation of the United Nations, increased .con§iderably in the future or food and num: could come from a 28 percent expansion of arable 4and $14r0 problems will becothe worse. According to the with a progressiyely,decreasing portion in timeand 72 report dr the Steenng Committee for the World Food percent from intensification of land use through higher and Nutrition Study,4 it will be necessary to increase yields and increasing the number of crops produced per food production by ai lea'st 3 to 4 percent per year be- year.' In contrast, theGlabal 2600 Report projects that .. twee,n now and the beginning of the.twenty-first century world food prOduction will increase 90 percent over the for significant improvement to occur. 30 years from 1970 to 2000.8 It also projects that arable These predictions ari,sobering in view of the trend land will increase only 4 percent by, 2000 and that most during the 1970s for yields of 'the major food crops to of the increased food output will have to come from reach a plateau both in the United States and in the rest higher yields. The key to sufficiently large and sustaining of the world. Some of the possible-causes for thatleveling yield increases will be technological change-,._ , out have been outlined in the-literature on the biology The following sceaftio is likely. Larger populations, of crop production.' Meanwhile, energy intensive 'farm greater, affluence, bid increasingly greater consumption input's have nsen, sharply and coniltiue an upward trend. of ammal.Proteins will intensify pressures fOrsmore in- These are ominous signs because 'the timetable for dou- tensive cultivation of available land. The pressure on bling of food production to meet estimated consumption land will be accentuated by the relative scarcity df water in most developing countries allows only 7 to 10 years.8 as its use approaches the limit of potential supply The The decades of the 1950s and The 1960s were truly the scarcity and expense of will then further aggra- golden ale fOr gains in American agricultural produc- vate the situation. tivity tFigure 1). The yield fluctuations during the 1970s The challenge will be to "make two ears of dom or suggest that the consistent gains in the two previous two blades of gras; to grow upon a spot of ground where decades are not likely to be repeated. One grew before." (Jonathan Swift in Gulliver's Travis Increases in food demand-Will come from both grow- els). This can be done by increasing traditional inputs, miltig populations and increases in consumer 'peonies. The but at greater costs. The challenge will be to increase major force in the growing commercial demand for food inputs at less cost, 0' that food prices can be maintained at reasonable levels. To achieve this policy strategy, one must take into account the resource inputs both natural (climate, land water) and- manmpcle (energy,. fertilizer, pesticides, human labor, machinery). Their costs, avail- ability, an4 renewability must also be taken into account. In the United States the development of labor saving technology has been a significant goal and achievement. Never have so few people produced so Inuch. A farm worker's production can be measured by the number of people, in addition to himself, he can feed. In 198Q, one o- farm.worker can feed, 60 other people; in 1970 he could feed 30 other people; in 1940 only 10 others; and in 1900 ak.only'6 other people. The increased productivity per unit of labor input may be attributed td more extensive and skillful use of the resources of water, energy, fertilizer, and pesticides. It is also the result of better management, amore timely operations, and more efficient and prochic-, Live equipment. Mechanization in the'United States.has enabled farmers both to carry out their field work on a IIN iNe 1;ri I;31 1111 Ifs1 INS Iii, 1111 Year timely basis and, at the same time, to allow for man- f agement' activities. Mechanization in the. United States Figure I Composite Index of Crop Yields for the State of Michigan has been a necessity because of the unavailability, un- (1880-1980) and for the'USA (1910-1980). certainties, and rping costs of human labor. In Japan Note There was no consistent gain from 1880 to 1940, there was a precipitous roe dunng and some other industrialized nations, where land, water, the 1950s. and 1960s. and there was a tendency to plateau in the 1970s , and energy resources have been limited and labor more Source Author. with the assistance of Karl T Wnght. Professor Ementus of Agncultural Econonucs at MichigState University plentiful, mechanization has.not 'been as prevalent.' In j S U.S `AgricultureT93 these countries, yields are higher, but _output per farm Table Y'dlobal Problems and Agricultural ProduLtiv it) worker is much Jess. Poverty Population, Increase Thus, there aie two general types of 'food production Inflation Shortage of firewood technologies for the future: Malhutntion Water-logging and sahnization Underemployment yy.ertainties of energy supplies food production, based on a high degree of mecha- Deforestation Toxic chemicals in the environment Soil,erosion Improving production and yield stability nization, with extensive use of land, water, and energy Changing climate GrainjoOdrenergy conflicts resources, andlittleuse of biologically-based, Communication gapbetween agncultunsts and poliLymakers technology. 'Uncertain responsesof political institutions food production based on biological technology, and Source Author sparing of land. water, and energy resources. The future v, ill show a n nal and worldwide shift from be farther from the truth. The mgricultural research es- a resource based agricult re to one based on biological tablishmentsboth prn,ately -supported and Public of and scientific techmilogy: The emphasis will be to raise America and other industrialized nations halve focused output for each unit of resource input and to ease the on large-scale single crop or Restock operations and constraints imposed by relatnely inelastic supplies of labor salving technologies that are Intensm in capital, land, water. fertilizer, pesticides. and energy. management, and resources. The changing cost of en- ergy. however, is undermining all our previous asstioip- tions about the costs and feasibility of increasing cultural production. and much of the technology of REASONS FOR THE SHIFT TO;13101PGICALLY- agricultural production as well. No longer can we plan BASED AGRICULTURE research programs patterned after the conventional ones (Ruitan has pointed out that the shift to a biologically- or those of the past. based agriculture has already occurred during the first We must now develop more dRersified resource- part of the,twentieth century in Japan and certain Eu- consers. ing technologies for agricultural production., ropean countries.' Whereas the United Stat7s has fol- These technolo ies must maximize output for a .given /* lowed a mechanical- resource intelisne techliol ,Ja-)(doset of inputs, o timize labor utilization, and minimize pan has followed a biologically- and chemicallyased capital costs for dke(opment. To be useful, they .must technology which is sparing of resources Incenti for improve the economic conditions of farmers. Nations increasing yield technologies have lagged untile$ently -predomthantly small farms must find ways of trans- in the United States, compared th-Japan and some Eu- mitting new technology to many farmers ThiiVaces a ropean countries, because oi the abundance and lov, cost great responsibility not only on research progirms. but of resources in the Onited States. `But this situation is also on extension and education. bound to change in the United States pnd elsewhere. It Environmental'issues will become more Important as is projected that almost all future increases in food pro- more land, water, fertilizers, and pesticides are diverted duction will by a result of increases in yield (output per to food production to force higher Aductisity. We can unit land area per unit time) and from growing additional expect greater use of chemicals as new teclinolog are crops during a given year on the same land. There are applied. The greatest potential for increases in foOpro- really no other viable options., ductionis in the developing countries,..and it is in° just Any new agriculeural technologies for the future will these countnesmostly tropical and semitropicalthat combine more dependable production and higher yields, fertilizer needs are greatest and pest problems most acute. and will emphasize strategies which are more labor- Conflicts in the use' of land and water resources for intensive than capital-intensive, and yhicil spare rather food, feed, or fuel production will continue as resource than exploit resources. They must:,be nonpolluting and constraints intensify.'" Toxicities from airborne materials scale neutral (adaptable to any size of farm). They must and projected climate changes froth fossil hod emi§siong offer solutions to global, food problems (Table i), and will direct attentior) to the production and use of,renew- increase the demand for underutilized labor resources. able resources. Technolokies'of this sort already -exist. Some will be Food production is the chief user of our land and water described later: Aitts. ' resources. Toxic,chemicals in the environment, some of One of the constraining myths in setting ihe food re- them pesticides and fertilizers used for food production, search and technology agenda for the future is the belief have been declared hazards to human health and well- that all we have to do is put to us4he technology40 we being. Debates will continue on issues of food safety,' now have and all will be well: This ifnplies that we do deleterious effects of chemicals on fish and wildlife and not need more research but only befter dissemination of their habitats, endangered-species, and carcinogenicity. the results.of research already completed. Nothing could Although some people have tried, no one has yet clarified 494 AAAS POLICY iiMTLOOK J. / . I what an en'vironmentally sustainable set of agricultuial endowilient." Becluseitis energy intensive, long- prpduction technologies might be. We must address this distance, massive food transport, cannot be viewed as issue with more than .lust debates that result in pOlarf- a viable long-term alternative to producing food closer zation. This will require a substantial, research Investment. to the people who consume it. Several developingcoun- Recent history is filled with apocalyptic prophecies of tries already have "pockets of success" which employ world hunger, famine, and starvation. The recently re- adaptive sets and combinations of western and domestic leased report of the Presidential Commission on World technologies. Hunger, fot example, infers that the food 'Production Great care and restraint should be exercisedin utng situation is worserrips, and that we are farther from the food as a strategic resource. The effects are not always goal of reducing huliger and malnutrition than we were predictable, humane, or effective. As the recent grain in 1974. The report presents little evidence, however, embargo attempt with the Soviets shows, this kind of to support this statement." Other equally dismal reports strategic use of food penalizes primarilyand perhaps, ignore prospective scientificdiscoveries and remain onlythe poor and fanners. Nevertheless, adequate food -skeptical about major breakthroughs in production. The -supplies can alleviate unrest and tensions among nations unfortunate consequence of this pessimism is that with- and peoples. The U.S. food system faces both domestic out hopi,there may be little action. Far from achieving and foreign demands that are largely interdependent scientific or biological limits, however. scientists have Both the balance of payments and exchange of raw ma- only begun to explore the capabilities for increasing food terials for value-added goods among thy United States production. Basic and applied research can stimulate fu- and industrial and nonindustrial countries are crucial to O ture governmental and pnvat,e sector efforts to 'increase the economies of all. Foreign demand.on the U S food the stability of production and expand food supPlies.12 system cRmes from two different sources.develeped or Industrialized nations and less developed countries Food Leadership for the resolution of food production prob- 7 lems through research arid technology will continue to ,exports from the United States are now going primarily reside with the United States. The United States now to the industrialized nations and serve mainly to increase produces, consumes, and exports more food than any the availability of dietary animal protein. In the process, nation in all of history. Sixty-one percent of the grain the less developed countries are being largely ignored which crossed international borders in 1979 was grown It is not likely that this situation will change quickly. in the United States. Agricultural exports for 1980 ap- Such a global dichotomy will persist. proximated 41 billion and offset more than three-fifths The objectives of U.S. agriculture in the context of of the cost of imported oil. Serious questions have been the World food situation should be to continue; raised about whether the high U.S. agricultural produc- S non can be sustained, especially with the current massive providing.a dependable, adequate, safe, anchautritious resource inputs. The issue is whether continued, abun- food supply for its domelic 'needs; dant. low-cost foodstuffs can be provided. assisting both industrialized and developing nations, through food exports; sustaining a livable environment. 45. U.S. AGRICULTURE AND THE WORLD FOOD Hitmanivian considerations,' alleviation of stresses SITUATION among nations, marketing of surpluses, achieving a bal- Recognizing that there will be approxiMatelY 6.2 billion ance bf payments. and needed exchange ofmaterials people on the earth by the year 2000, national strategies dictate these objectives. To achieve them, a reassessment must meet increasing demands for improved nutrition of investments in U.S. food and agricultural production and inore animal protein, keep food prices reasonable research and educational programs, which have pro- far everyone, and lessen tensions among nations. The gressively eroded for,the past 13 years, will be required. United States, with its vast human and natural resources, The situation haS become even more critical during the occupies a unique position Other nations vo longer take past four years, since the U.S. Department of Agriculture U.S. supremacy in food and agriculture fol granted, yet, (USDA) began elevating consumer Jnd nutrition con- they continue to come to our doors in search of new food cerns (food safety, quality,nutritional content) to the producing technologies. The United States cannot and highest priority, while deemphasizing food production should not plan as a long-term policy to be the bread and marketing research.14 basket of the world. This would require an exploitation of land, water, mineral, and energy.resources that neither THE U.S. AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH SYSTEM we nor the rest of the world can afford for long, if for no other reason than that the price for increasing inputs Food and agricultural research is managed differently in will likely become prohibitive. The United States, more the United States than in other countries. State govern- than any other nation, has already used up its geologic ments, responding to the aggressive actions of research A 7 ILLS. ,Agriculture '495 -s. . ...- administrators and scientists at universities, are largely and *education in 1980 were 0.3 percent less, than the responsible for food and agricultural research. It is the previous year, compared wIth an average 7 percent,gain state governments, not the federal -government, which in federal funding for other ty4,of research and de- provide the bulk (approximately two-thirds) of the velopment. Less than 2.3 percent of the total federal money and human resources, establish their Lw.n direc- research budget of approximately $30 billion, was di- tions, set their own priorities, develop the most limo-. rected to food and agricultural 'research in 1980, while vative approaches on research frothiers, and take the global outlays for total research and development for initiative in sponsoring foreign agricultural development agriculture have averaged 3 percent. '' We are letting our programs /This stands in marked contrast to research own national agricultural research system erode while conducted in the defense, space, health, energy, and other nations develop theirs. The Congress should in- regulatory areas, which is managed largely by federal tervene immediately to correct this situation . agencies. The United States and the world continue to under- While, there has been a long standing partnership be- estimate and demean the importance of investments in tween the U S Department of Agriculture and the ag- agricultural and food research. Viewed as an investment,. ricultural experiment stations of the states, that bond is with annual returns of 50 percent or more, agricultural slowly being eroded by a progressive subo,rdination and research does not receive adequate support in the United attrition of cooperative research within the federal sys- States. Two causes have been suggested. first, the bene- tem (One needs only to observe the offices they occupy.) fits of agricultural research spill across countries, states, Research has not been a major mission within ale U S. and regions to those who do not pay for it, and second, Department of Agriculture; although some progress has benefits to consumers of en are not apparent to them IS 'been. made during the past two years . More and more We should continu encourage parallel efforts be- financial responsibility for food research is falling upon tween state and federal support of agricultural research. state governments A decentralized system that addresses the needs of in -' At the same time the feder.al, agricultural research dividual states will more than compensate for apparent system is rapidly disintegrating Few vacancies are being duplication of effort. Any centralized system designed filled and 40 percent of the career scientists are eligifile to achieve maximum coordination among 'states will only for retirement within the next five years." The average neglect specific regional arid- state problems, and will age of career scientists in the federal agricultural research come at a high' price. system is am,' 49 and increasing by a third .of a year per , Funclingof food and agricultural research must include . year There are progressively fewer yourie scientists The expenses for maintaining and replacing research tools, system also has been subject to constant personnel at- even when they are not currently being used. These tools trition; the scientific force having been reduced frOm include. flocks, herds, barns, feed, milking parlors, ma- ,300 to 2,850 during the past five years. Meanwhile, chinery, field stations, land, orchards, crops, irrigation . new waves of interest and concernfood safety,. envi- equipment, and greenhouses. Much of the -formula ronmental problems, regulatory constraints, human, nu- ("Hatch") money traditionally allocated for agricultural trition, exces4jve reportinghave been imposed on the research goes into the maintenance of this kind of equip- research systemLimitations on travel to professional ment. As a i-'sult, critics repeatedly allege that agricul- meetings and on funds for operations, imposed by a tural research is inefficient compared to the competitive budget which must allot up to 90 percent of the total grant programs administered ey the National Science financial resources to salaries, provide little incentive for Foundation (NSF), National Institutes of Health (NIH), bright young scientists to enter the system. orunder new legislation-l-bsy the I.1SDA.'Even though The United States Agency for International Devel- indirect charges are included, these competitive grants opment (AID) suffers a similar shortage of agricultural do not pay the ever-rising maintenance and replacement scientists, with only about 300 full-time agricultural po- 'costs for Machinery, cattle, orchards, crops, land, water, sitions now remaining.'6 This is shocking if we consider labor, and energy. University business offices, however, that AID's fiscal year 1979 budget allocated $669 million have seen to it that overhead charges from competitive to agricultural development and nutrition. Thus, only 10 grant funding pay for on-campus bookkeeping offices, percent of A1D's staff is professionally competent to lights, and water. This means that agricultural re- le agriculture, which is 55 percent of its budget. search in universities requires-supplementary funding to ince the early 14t10s the purchasing power of federal survive. support of agricultural research has been declining at the Agricultural research in the state agricultural experi- rate of 2 percent per year. Of all federal agencies, the intnt etvrttins is slowing down, not only because pnces USDA with its cooperatiie support of state agricultural rise while federal support 11414....hut because facilities experiment stations has been the Only one in theexec- (laboratories, greenhouses, bams,--amils.equipment) are utive ,budget severely disadvantaged by cuts during the woefully inadequate and outmoded. In addition, facilities past three years Final outlays for agricultural research. remain cramped, because student loads have increased / l 1/ 496 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK three-fold in 12 years. Yet little federal support has been BIOLOGICAL RESEARCH AND FOOD provided for renovation and improvement of facilitiet PRODUCTION in 15 years, and none since 1970. Through,research; scientists could develop technologies Except for maint iej5e, as outlined above, requests that would result in stable food production at high levels. for across-the-board increases for all agricultural re- These technologies would enhance rather than diminish search disciplines are no longer convincing. The mes- the earth's resources. They would not pollute the envi- sage, however, is clear: both competitive grant and for- ronment, or use large amounts of capital, management: mula funding of food and agricultural research should or nonrenewable resources. They would be scaleneutral. go up, but priorities have to be, set for not only the Development of these technologies is of the highest amounts but the kinds of research to be pursued. pnonty, and Can be accomplished through biological research. Through biological research, we can take steps toward enabling plants and food animals to use present FOOD PRODUCTION RESEARCH PRIORITIES environmental resources more effectively. Through bi- ological lesearch we can achieve: The food crisis of 19.73-1975 and the oil embargo have created new prionties for food and agricultural research. (1) greater photosynthetic efficiency: Future research will focus on ways of controllinithe (2) improved biological nitrogen fixation. biological processes that limit the productivity of eco- (3) genetic improvements: nomically important food crops and food animals. Re- (4) more resistance to competing biological systems search goals will also include more effective use and (weeds, insects, diseases)... management of resources and other production inputs. (5) more efficient nutrient' and water uptake and utili- The, national or international working conference zation, and fewer losses from nitrification and de- model has been n effective means of establishing prior- nitnfication of nitrogen fertilizer applied in crop ities in agricultur4.1 research. The best scientific talent production: with a range of interdisciplinary skills is recruited. Com- (6) alleviation of climate and environmental stresses rpissioned papers on specified -topics are prepared and (unfavbrable temperatures, soil moisture, and min- distributed to prospeclive participants inSpecified work- eral stresses in problem soils): ing groups in advance of the conference. After a week's (7) better understanding of hormonal systems and their revision and further development during the conference, -regulation. , thefesults are edited and published as proceedings'. An j. executive summary sets forth the priorities. Assessments of research priorities for the plant and These ,technologies may release food production from ailimal sciences have been elaborated in an international dependencf on increasingly scarce fossil fuels conference on crop productivity,19 several reports ofthe Efforts to identify these important research areas have U.S. National Research CouncilNational Academy of not resulted in expanded_liesearch support, but they have Sciences,2° a national conference on Animal Agricul- prompted changes in organization, administration, and tureMeeting Human Neeefor the 21st Century,'-' and funding ofgricultural research at the federal level. A by the Office of Technology Assessment of the U.S. notable exaNple has come with the initiation of the com- Congress.22 The World Food Conference of 1976 also petitive grant program administered by USDA. This in-' outlined research priorities.A working conference fant program which supports the first four of the research sponsorediby the Agricultural Research Policy Advisory areas listed above, was initiated in 1978. Announcement Committee of the slate-federal system, established re- of the $14-million program brought in more than 1, 100 search prionties by a ballot system from a large number research 'proposals involving funding requests for more of participants.24 The International Conference on Ag- than $200 millibn. Available funds could support only ricultural ProductionResearch and Development Strat- half.the proposals rated as excellent Similar situations egies for the 1980sissued recommendations for re- existed in 1979 and 1980. search and development in biological resouices, All of this has revealed one important fact. There is water, and energy.25 Within the past three to five years, enormous, talent waiting to be recruited for viable re- public and private agricultural and food research centers,, search programs related to the biological processes that from provincial to international levels, .havereassessedk control food ptoduCtion. Nevertheless, during the young and 'idetitified research priorities. These centers have life of the competitive grant program, now in its fourth sponsored long-range plannjng seminars on the major year, Congress has consistently limited funding of the Issues and trends of agricultural science and technology. program to essentially the same level, denying the pro- From all of thesefforts, a sujprising unanimity has gram even thole increases needed to offset the effects emerg of inflation. The minimal increase allowed has been eaten L U.S. Agriculture497 up in administrative costsThe available human fe- sorghum 32 percent, feed grains 113 percent, soybeans sources, revealed by the n mber of applicants with ex- 24 percent; cotton 23 percent, and peanuts 43percent. cellent project proposalseralds an opportuniwfOr this Climatic stres_ses'on world grain productionwere par- nation to reassert the wo Id leadership that it has abdi- ticularly significant in 1980. That year' thecomposite cated in the area of fo research. A policy which se- indexes crop yields in the United States (Figures 1-and verely limits funding,owever, denies to agrictiltural 2) dropped 20 percent because of drought and hightem- and food research pro rams the talents of some of the perature. Grain production fell off in the People's Re-, very best scientists i athe nation. This cannot be rec- public of China because of flood'in the. south and onciled with our te national interest.It is time we drought in the north. The Soviet Union witnessedits opened the door of gncultural and food research to the second disastrous year in1 row because of marginally nation's scientific pertise including that possessed by cold and dry growing conditions and adverse weather the private sector. during harvest. Only in South Asia did production rise The benefits of upport for the competitive grant pro- slightly above previo4s highs (Figure 2). Thesestatistics gram would beaped by the developing countries as suggest that world and U.S. grain stocks will be reduced, well as by thenited States. Developing nations can relative to utilization, to the lowest levels encountered share in the be efits of the new technologies we have in'two decades. already discuss dimproved plant and animal genetics,. A substantial research effort aimed at improving the increased pho osynthetic efficiency and nitrogen fixa- rest tance of crops to stresses caused by interannual eh- tion, as well as protection against insects, diseases, ma e variations is badly needed. While potential prob' weeds, anddverse environments. These technologies les of long-term climate changefor example, from canfree dev loping nations as welI"as the United states from an ill- dvised dependency on fossil fuels for food t production. e research necessary to create these new 300 technologieis adaptable to local co ditions- and is rel- 275 .. atively ice a nsive.Th rom such research could be multiplied many -250 & times, and advances made by one nation couldtte shared USA by others. Genetic Tools could be assembled, for ex: ample, so that nations could share information about PRC known fav rable components for disease resistance, en- 200 vironment. I stress tolerance, a superior "harvest index" (the porn., .of the plant used for food), and acceptable 175 culinary c aracteristics that can be adapted quickly to local need and conditions. MMT 150 A parti t ularly significant, yet neglected biological re- search aria, is the alleviation of climatic and environ- 125 mental ssses. The report of the, Steering Committee for the N tional Academy of Sciences World Food and 100 Nutrition .Ludy, issued in 1977, deemed this as impor- tant as iiroved photosynthesis and biological nitrogen fixation,:enetic manipulation, and. protection against pests. Theffects of climate and weather remain the' most significant determinants in food production and -..account, more than any other inputs, for instabilities in production from year to year and from oration to nation. Stability of prOductiOn is as important as the magni- tude oLproduction itself. Climate is probably a mote Pt' % 606264' 66 68 7072 .7476 7880 :1 \ Year 'significant ,determinant of food production than pests: The droughts of 1974 and 1980, for example, caused far figure 2 Patterns of World Graik Production in 'Millions of Metric greater Idsses of U.S. agricultural production than the 4rons (MMT). blight which destroyed 15 percent (or about 700 million Note. For the United States (USA). People's Re folk of China (PRO,Soviet Union (USSR), bushels) of the U.S. corn crop in 1970. In 1974, pro- and South Asia (S Asia) from 1960 to 1980 Plliturbations in the upward trends Ire pnmanly ,a result of climatic and weather cents The2reme vanations in the USSR result from duction lummeted 20 percent for corn, wheat, and soy- millions of hectares of land that are marginally or dry The relatne stability of production beans aSka result of drought. In 1980, corn prodatibn in China ant) South Asia. results from a high pell5antage of crop imgatitn Climatic stresses dung 1980 wdl result in a severe depleuon of gfain stocks and storage reserves fell 17 percent from I 979Por 1.3 billion bushels; grain Source U S Department of Agnculturc. and perkbnal correspondence I 7 , 498AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK increasing levels of atmospheric CO2chave received tributing to thei ftiture role of U.S. agriculture in the Most of the 10,000 considerable attention in recent years. problems of inter- context of the world food situation. annual climate variation have been largely overlooked. lo 12,000 U.S. agricultural scientists who receive public, the industrial Research directed at achieving greater prbduction sta- support, and an even greateenumber from scientists bility through genetic imProvement and cropand live- sector, plus many of the more than 600 senior 'also, stock management is of high priority.The USDA's com- in the international agricultural research centers are petitive grant piogratn must be expanded toaccommodate alumni of the U.S. land grant system. this kind of research, and the Congress shouldrespond The human rsource base for scientific support of food ' accordingly. research in theTnited States now has fallen behind the Some new research initiatives arc also called for in Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China." In animal agriculture and its products. Three-fourths of the the United States,tshortages' of trained scientists are dietary protein, one -third of the energy, and most of the emerging ,in agricultural etonomics, agrondmy. engi- calcium and phosphorus in the U.S. diet come from neering, and animal agriculture. The United States can animal produets. Food animals, such as ruminants, are expect increasing demands, both -at homeand abroad, living, mobile, protein factories that may survive and ".for training and aiding agricultural scientists These de- flourish on forages that are indigestible for people..Food mancg call for a review .of the entire training program animals like swine and poultry use residues and byprod- and raise serious questions about where international ucts from food procAsing and fromthe polycultures of agn&iltarists,will come from:" The National Science lakes and ponds that otherwise would be wasted.The Foundation-is responsible for the health of science in the worlerfood reserves in livestock exceed those of grain nation.It must reassess its role in supporting the bio- and are far better distributed. logical, physical. and social sciences in research onlood The feeding of livestock in other nations is the catalyst production and distribution; and in supporting foreign 4 for much of the current U.S. world grain trade. Live- gradUate students for training programs in' agriculture - stock, not people, consume most of the corn, wheat,and and food production. soybeans' the United States ships abrniitPeoples of all 40_ 41 nations, developed and less developed, Ire strivingfor more 'dietary animal protein. Researchin animal agri- culture should focus on resource conservation, greater INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH reproductive efficiency; and-basic Studies on protein syn- CENTERS . thesis that would result in less fat and moreprotein in Globally, the most successful agricultural research es- the final product.. tablishments are the international centers. They have 0,undertaken innovative research projects for enhanced food production and other aspects of agriculture, and have prospered: Annual fundingfor these centers (now ... HUMAN RESOURCES FpR AGRICULTURAL cnumbering 13) has gone, from S1'0 million in -1969 to RESEARCH more than.$125 million in 1980, with$250 million pro- 0 Consideration must be gil ven to hunian resourceneeds jected for 1984. The United States'continues to contrib- ute about 25 percent of their total budgetwhich, along ,for food and agricultura research and technology.We have already mentioned the serious loss of careersci- with other sources or income, is administered by the entists in the federal ag cultural research system. Men- Consultative, Group on Inteynatibnal Agricultural Re search with advice and scientific input fromitsle'chnical tion is often made of t e lack ()odal scienceinputs . into the nation's aerie ltural research program. An, at-' advisory Committee. most exclusive respon ibility foragricultural research Recentcongrestiondl and administrative proposals are training programs in t e United States resides with the aimed at consolidating all foreign research and technol- .. , under land grant universitiesa few additional state universi- ogy activities, along with many other programs, Cooperation Agency. ties, the Colleges of 190, and the Tuskegee Institute. a hew International Developrnent Ihese isiettrutions traiscientists for research in state (IDCA). 'This agency would include the Institute for agrictiltural experiment stations, the USDA'sresearch Scientific and Technologicaltooperation,(ISTC), which 7, ,programs, cooperative state-federal programs, thepri- would have a strong input from U.S. colleges and-uni- vate sector, the foundations, and theinternational agri-. arsities: This institute would have responsibility for sci6ce and technology efforts in developing countries cultural research cen ers. The 115' top land grant uni- versities, with enrol ments..of 100 or moreforeign "relating to food and agriculture. The currentC011abo- graduate students, halve now produced 20,000 alumni iative Research Support PrograMs (CRSPs) would them,, helping to serve acultural research and educational fall under the administrationsf ISTC. " Aas not yet been d'evel- needs iri developingountiies. These alumni are one of An appropriate constituency this nation has cultivated for con- oped either iCongress or in the nation to support ISTC the greatest resource o ,. -1. .. / nit . ;., wie-t. )' U.S. Agriculture499 I's" '',. s e , , or-expanded intentitional agricultural i;'may'''' may bagnificant to U.S. agricuLture as we move toward grams.?9 Approiimately half ($50 m resource - conserving mode. 1 ,, posed 1981 budget of ISTC Would have Ins expect that the benefits of the researchresearch will have l. nutrition, and agricultural trograms in othe a global impact incorporating U.S. interests, because we primary foots on develoAng counzes. Con a '''havebeenactiYein planning straiegy from the outset. # opiftion, however, does not support federal pro for Established efforts involving co&boration among U.S food and-agricultural research directed toward the deeds ivitutions, international research centers and cornmod- of other 'nations.:3° . itytmetworks, and national research centers include pro- This lack of support is puzzling in view of the benefiis grams on field beanslco"Wpeas, sorghuninullet, small we ourselves can derive from international involvement. ruminants, integrated .pest .management, and aquacul- \ Most of our major food crops and breeds of livestock ture. One of the most advanced of the CRSP, efforts is 'and much of our technology have been derived from the, field beanicowpea program w"14h has locations out- . .../ other countries: , side the United States, including 12 research institutions , - in Latin America and-East Africa and two international dwarfhigh yieldingvarieties of wheat andrice agricultural research cerners. The program involves ten . from Japan, , - , U.S..universities and brings together many disciplines, soybeans' from China, i, including agronomy, botany, genetics, plant pathology, insect resistant wheat from Russia, - entomology, food science, human nutrition, medicine, new genetic resources for third generation hybrid corn` ,,',and.social science. Managed by Michigan State Urn- from South Ainenca, : %- versa), and guided thus far by a sociologist and a plant 9 high vitamin A sorghum from West Africa,: , breeder, the pograni's initial contract calls for 516.7 high protein', high' -Aysine wheat from Nepal,. _. *hod for a inte Ye4r period. . cattlepore tolerant of heat, parasites,.and insectg from Challenge; ahead for the CRSys will beto seek fund- Africa and Asia. .. ing lathe federal level for up to 50 percent of the U.S. investigators' time. The current support level 'of abque s , , ,..1 . ID percent is disproportionate for the managing institu- ;.1 A These are by means the onlybenefits,beiderived non and cannot- survive, There should be an effort to from other countries The production of Zebu (Brahma) train.contemart scientists in the developing countries cattle from the Asian subcontinent, has created an en- and to promote regional centers for training intermediate tirely new beef industry in the higher temperature regions level technicians and extension personnel, both men and of the southern United States in less than 20 years, The _women. CRiN can help bridge the gap that now exists most advanced genetic material for dwarf hybrid sun- 'between int..:al agricultural research centers and flowers resides in the Sovi5t Union. Future collaboration national programs' They can help develop and hold to- with the People's Republic of China is expected to make 'gether gI bal rese rch teams on specific problems. available vast genetic resourios in swine breeding, cereal Throughese coil 'orative efforts it is hoped that rec-- grains, oil crops, and many yet undeveloped fruits and oghiti will beyen to inputs froth cultures where the vegetables. The Chinese also have much to offer in sor ons are to be used. Many peasant farmingpractices Azolla culture (green manuring through biological nitro- e also worthy of reseal-61nd some may have useful gen fixation) and hybrid rice production. .applications'for U.S. agriculture. ..,Xongress should review carefully what is gmergin 'The role of the international agricultural researchcen- , from the 'Collaboiative Resear6 Suppgct Programs ters is under constant review," and should go beyond (CRSPs) which are adpinistered by the Bad on Inter- inpuili from the Consultative GroupronInternational national Food and Agricultural Development. Teams of Agricultural Research.,Major early bsakthroughs, such.- U.S. economists and other social scientists are partici-. as occurred with dwarf types of wilMt and rice, char- panng in interdisciplinary "and inteOuniversity programs acterized their early development. Gaps nowexist be- fomnritted to research design and implerentation. They tween the international centers and national agricultural are collaborating on botiebasic and applied research with research centers. To bridge these gaps will require closer similar groups from developing countries. The major' collaboration in the' future between the two. The inter- objective of such programs is'more effective resolution, national agricultural research centers are not yet truly of a wide variety of staple food problems, including international, bedause much of the world is nota papart production, utilization, and, the socio-cultural impacts a the netwcrPks either -as contributors or recipients. The resulting from them. It is implicit in- the CRSPs that international a ricultural research centers also exhibit research will emphasize technologies that do'not exploit '.and exercise egree of research affluence (higher sala- resources, pollute the environmenLor depend on large ries,. benefits, equipment, supporting personnel, travel energy inputs. Biological solutions will be emphasized,./efipportunities),not typical of the countries in which they wherever possible, over reliance on costly and possibly are located. It,is unlikely that any of these problems will polluting agricultural chemicals. This kind of research be overcome soon. ' 3 ifr11 [ .3i -e SOO AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK' , Itis recognized that the internationalagricultural re- world. Some.'of.them are summarized in Table 2 The search centers have, in some Instances,upgratie'd ,na- technological. social. economic; andresothCe ingredi- into' hose pOckets of success 'should tional agricultural. researdr centers. The Natior IInsti-- ents that Lye gene be identified and shared with other nations where 'their tute for AgriciiIttiral Research in Mexico a goad, 4. example. -, adoption could prove equally. frkiitful Emphasis in the future should be on theicreased support 'find development of national agricultural re- search centers.. Most fOod production problems are re- _Table 2Pockets of SuCcessful Production in DevelopingWorld gional and soluti:Os must be localized.There is a move- 4riculture ment toward thisWith the establishmentof the International AgricUltural D-evelopment Service and the International P rojects .Accomplislimentt Service for National Agricultural Researth ;the most re- Grain Production in Intlia's A 3-fold increase in grain production in 10 years fi.oM oentmemb'er orthe international agrieultuill-a research Punjab network 1965 -to 1975 Rice Production in.Colombia Yields rose from I8, tp 4 4 It is further recommended that the Consultative Group tons/hectare from 1965 to International Agricultural Research take the initiative 1975 for for- .In establishing two International research centers Wheat Production in Torkey . Increase in produc.tioVrom 7 estry. One center should be located inthe tropics, with to IT millionlms from 1961 Brazil, Indonesia, or Africa as possible sites; tie other to 1-977 Americie China. Hybnd Rice in China 30 to 50' percent yield increase In the temperate zones of either North (labor intensive high yielaing Attention should be given to,enhancement of forest pro- technology) ' `ductivi ty through genetic improvement and manage- Hybrid Cotton In India fields doubled(labor4tensise ment Specialempligis would be given to biomass Ss high yieldirig, technology) a renewable energy resource, reforestationand control The White (Milk) Resolution Daily cash income. improved_ ' in the GujaratState of India nutrition. labor intensive of soil erosion, trees and their products as food resources, technology for 300.000.small ki and the technologies ofagnforestrymilizing species that farms Yields increased by 10 percent have biological nitrogen fixation capabilities - The Puebla rMaize) Project in I Mexico &op 1968 to 1972 The Comilla Project of East Rice yields and incomes of CONCLUSION t Pakistan (Bangladesh) farmers'doubled from 1963 ., to 1970 The United States cannot indefinitely serve as the bread- The "Masagana 99" Pro ect In Rice yieldsrmereased by 36 basket of the world. Food production and its delivery', the PhilippiNs percent in 3 years from 1973 alonwith fossil fuel. energy will pecome increasingly to 1976 Maize in Kenya -Hybrids and fertilizer and expeasive, and -at times both food and energy wilIe management increased yields scarce. Agricultural development must precede eco- 4 8 tons/hectare nomic development. Ultimately, the answer willdictate Hybrid Maize in the U S. 3 5 fold increase in yield from that food be produced closer to the people who consume ,1940 to 1979 it. To this end, there are notable examples of successful Source Author, and S Woman And R WCumming. JrTo Feed Thuothi The Chal love and the Strateg% alatuntore John. Hopkins Unt.crmty 19791 pp trift-210 food producing systems in,the agriculturallS, developing ' , Academic Press,1980), pp". 413-59, "Food Production Prospects NOTES AND REFERENCES ci Technology and Resource Options," in Politics of Food, edited by D Gale Johnson (Chicago. University of Chicago Press.1979), 1 The authdr in the preparation of this paper has drawn heavily from his previous reports..These include "Maximum Production Ca- "Priorities of U S Food Research and Management." a position paper, ion on Word Hunger. vol 3 (Washington, D C pacity of Feed Crops," BioScience. vol. 24 (1974),,pp, 216-44,"Food Prailential Comm s1 Century," the Coromandel Lecture, Production: Technology and the Resource base.:' Science, vol188, 1980), "Agriculturii for the Agriculture (1975), pp 579-84, "Increased Crqp Yields and Livestock Produc- New Delhi, India, 4 September 1979, "Future Trends in tivity," in World Food Prospects and Agricuhural Potential, Marilyn Technology and Management." Long-Range Environmental Outlook, Chou, David P Harmon, Jr., Herman Kahn and Sylvan H.Wittwer, Environmental Studies Board of the Commission.on isiatural Resources. authors (New York. Praeger Publishers, 1977), pp. 66-135, "Assess- National Research Council (Washington, D C National Academy of Sciences, 1980), pp 64-107, "Agriculture in the 21st Century," Pro- ment of Technology in Food Production," in RenewableResource ceedings of the Agricultural Sector Symposia (Washington, D C . Management for Forestry and Agriculture. edited by James S. Beth4,1 , and Martin A Massengale (Seattle: University of Washington Press, World,Bank,A I January 1980). pp 450 -95: "The' Role of Science in 1978), pp. 35-56: "Production Potential of Crop Plants." in Crop Future,Food Production Increases;" paper presented at the International Physiology. edited by U.S. Gupta (New Delhi. Oxford and IBH Pub- Wheat and Maize Development Center. Long-Range Planning Confer- ProtectedEnvironments for Plant lishing Co,, 1978), pp, 334-73,, "The Shape of Things to Come," in ence, 9-12 April 1980, "Advances in Advances Biology of Crop Productivity, edited by Peter Carlson (New York. Growth," Proceedings of an International Symposium on ti 1%. U.S. Agriculture 501 in Food Producing Spier?* for Arid and Semi -Arid Lands. Kuwait, ,13. See paper by William A. Vogely on pp. 513-522 of this volume I9,-.24 Apnl 1980i "Future Challenges and Opportunities for Agn- 14 'The enorniity of the task to focus on the poky implications for cultural and Forestry Research," in Future Sources of Organic Ran U.S science and technology. along with inter - relationships among Vlaterials7 edited by 1Chemrann, L E StPierre, anV.R Brown ;situations for U.S agriculture in theiontext of the world food situation. (New York Pergamon Press, 1980), pp 401-12, and "Food fair the dunng the next five years forced a limitation in the coverage of this 21st Century," keynote speech. Conference on Aninial Agriculture- report The entire food system from production through handling, proc- Meeting guman Needs for the 21st Century, Boyne Mountain. Mich- essing. marketing, and consumption is not addressed Nor is that of igan. S May '1980. aquaculture. There. is the recognition, however. that food losses. be- 2 "The Future of American Agnculiure as a Strategic Resource." yond the farm gate. are significant and that a reduction in these losses Proceedings of a Conservation Foundation Conference (Washington, cad result in a IA to 15 percent increase in food supply without D C' Conservation Foundation. 1980) bringing new -land into production. see Food'Sciend Research Needs '3 Presidential Cogimission on World Hun ger-:Final Report (Wash- for Improving the Utilization. Processing and Nutritional Value of ington. D CThe White' House.1480), and C RWharton, -Jr_ Food Products. (Washington,. D C.. National Science Foundation, "food-The Hidden Cnsis.: Science. voi. 208 (1980). p. 1415. 1975). The direction of this report is on science and technology options, 44kWorld Food and Nutrition Study, "Enhancement of' Food Pro- with pnontics, for food production. , ductt fot the United States" (Washington, D C National Research 15 See the repolere'quested by the late Senator Hubert Humphrey CoiinciUNational,AcadeMy 'of Sciences, 1975). and "Potential Con- -entitled Manaiement of Agricultural Research Need and Opportunities tnbution! or Research" (Washington, D C Nationt11 Research Coun- for Improtem"int (Washington, D C General Accounting Office. 23 cil/National Academy of Sciences. 1977). August 1977). , 5 Witmer. "The Shape of Things to Come," in Biology of Crop 16 1Knoll, BIFAD Study of AID s professional Agricultural Man- Prodiictivin, edited by Peter Carlson (New York Academic Press. power. Board for International Food and Agricultural Development 1980), Global Food Assessment, Foreign Agncultural Economic Report (Washington, D C IDCAiAID, 1979). R 0 Olson, "Staffing Re- No 159 (Washington, D C US Department of Agnculture, 1980) quirements for AgneultureiRural Development Programs(Washingi 6 Sterling Wortmdn and R W Cummings. Jr ..To Feed this World ton, D C Agency for International Development. 1980) (Baltimore John Hopkins University Press. 1978). p 406 17 Eor further details see. "Research and Development Special 7 Agricultuie Toward .2900 (Rome The Food and Agnculture Or- Analysis,' The Budget of the U S Government for fiscal 1980 (Wash- ganization of the United Nations, 1979) ington. D C I. p304. Cohn Norman. Knowledge and Power The 8 Council'on Environmental Quality and the Department of State. Global Research and Development Budget. Worldwatch Paper 31 The Global 2000 Report to the Presideni Entering the Tnenty-First (Washington. D C Worldwatch, 1979). A R '13ertrand, "Food and ' Century (Washington. D C 1980). and A M Tang and B Stone, Agncultural Research Agenda for the 80s," and the response by Don "Food Production in the People's RepUblic of China." Research Report Paarlberg Agriculture Outlook Conference (Washington, D C.. CS 15 (WaThington, D CInternational Food Policy Research Institute, Departmeflt of Agriculture. bp November 1980). 1980)' , I. R.E. Evenson, P E. Waggoner. and V.W Ruttan. "Economic 9 Vernon W Ruttan, duced Innovation and Agncultural De- Benefits from Research. An Example from Agriculture." Science. vol. velopment," Food Policy. v 2. no. 3 (August 1977), pp 196-216, 205 (1979), pp. 1101-7 am:1,1'w° Hayami and Vernon W Ruttan. Agricultural Development 19. "Crop Productivity-Research Thiperay." in Proceedings of .An International 'Perspective (Baltimore Johns Hopkins University an International Conference, edited by A. Brown _T C Byerly. Press, 1971) M Gibbs, and A. San Pietro, Michigan Agricultural Exponnlent Sta- 10 L R Brown, Food or Fuel New Competi tion for the World's tion, East ,Lansing, Michigan, and Charles F' Kettering Foundation. Cropland. Worldwatch Paper 35 &iashington. D.C.. World-Watch Yellow Spnhs, Ohio, 20-25 October 1975. Institute,1980), R Meekhof. M Gill. pnd W Tyner. "Gasohol. 20 World Food and Nutrition Study, The Potential Contributions Prospects and Implications,' in Agricultural Economic-Ileport No 458 of 'Research (Washington.,13 C.. National Research Council/National (Washington, DC US Department of Agriculture, Econoqucs, Sta- Academy of Sciences, Commission on International Relations, 1977) tistics, and Cooperative Service, 1980). 21 A nima(Agricultui-e-Meering Human Needs for the 21st Century, I IPresidential Commission on World fiunger-Finil Report. and Proceedings of a National Conference, 4-9 May 1980, Bayne Moun- D Gale Johnson, "The World Food Situation. Development Dunng tam. Michigan (Boulder. Colorado. Westview.ess,-1980) the 1970s and Prospects for the 1980s," paper no 80 (Chicago. Office 22. U.S. Congress, Office of Techna%y sessment, Organizing of Agricultural Economics Research, University of Chicago, 1980), and Financing Basic Research,to Increase Fciod Production (Wash-. p. 10 ington, D.C.: 1977). 12 For further development of these concepts: seeChou et al., 23. Proceedings of the World Fopd Conference of 1976 (Ames, 'World Food Prospects; Marylin Chou and David P. Harmon. Jr., eds, Iowa: Iowa State University Press, 1976). Critical Food Issues of the Eighties (New York Pergamon Press, 1979), 24. "Research to Meet U.S. and World Food Needs," report ofa "The Dynamics of Natural Resources and Their Impact on Resource working conference (Kansas City, Missouri: Agricultural Research Data," paper presented at the Conference onSystems AsPects of En- Policy Advisory Committee, 9-11 July 1975). ergy and Wpm! Resources. Laxenburg, Austna, 9-14 August 1979. 25. "Agricultural Production. Researth and Development Strategies sponsored by IIASA and the Resource System Institute, East-West for the 1980s," sponsored the Food and Agriculture Development Center, Honolulu; Keith 0 Campbell, Food for the Future (Lincoln, Centre of the German Foundation for International Development, the Nebraska. University of Nebraska Press, 1979), Theodore W. Schultz, Rockefeller Foundation, and the German Agency for Technical Co- "The Economics of Research and Agncultural Productivity" (New operation, Bonn, Wor,cerniany, 8-12 October 1979. York- International Agncultural Development Seriice), and Johnson,, 26 Roger Revellenergy Dilemmastut Asia. The Needs for Re- "The World Food Situation:" Pinstrup P. Anderson, The Impact of ' search and Development," Science, vol. 209 (4 July1980), pp. Technological Change in Agriculture on Productivity, Resource Use 164-74, and "Biological Research and the Third World Countnes, and the Environment- Towards an Approach for E,r Ante Assessment, (editorial) BioScience, vol. 3., no. I (1980), p. 727 working paper WP-19-081Laxenberg. Austria: International institute 27. Sylvan H. Wittwer, U.S. and Soihet Agricultural 'Research for Applied Systems Analysis, 1979), E. Ebeling, The Fruited Plain Agendas," Science, vol 208 (18 April 1980), p.'245, and "Agricul- (Berkeley University-o7 California Press, 1979)1N S §crimshaw and tural Research. Some Comparisons of,the Soviet, Chinese, and thg k L. Taylor, "Food," Scientific American, vol. 243 (1980), pp 78-88. United States Systems,"National Forum, vol. 61, pp. 20-21. .,SO2 AKAS POLICYOUTLOOK 447 At institutions An excellent example is that ofOhio State University and 28 Clifton R Wharton. Jr"Tommorrow's Development Proles, banquel"address (Urbana, the \Punjab Agncultural Urnyersity in India t . sionals. Where Wilthe Future Come From''" 1980 Ecohoinics Association. 28-fuly 141)). 3i. ConsultativeGroup on International Agricultdral Research. ' : /,niencan Agricultural ashington."13 C CGIARJSecretanat. 29-See paper by Charles Weiss on pp. 475-490of this volume. Report. Ati.Integrattve Report (W 30 Some of the mosteffective programs have been basedcon bilateral. I 980)1, relationships between U S land grant of other universitiesand foreign \ 4. III: * %NI a 1\ \ V O Trends and Prospects inWorld Population Michael .S. Teitelbaum* ' e, INTRODUCTION gration. Each of these components is measurable (with greater or lesser accuracy), and each has distinctive ef- Population trends form the basic substrate of concerns fects upon the characteristics of human populations about resources and international comity on over the coming a global, national, and subnational basis. decades. The Jinks between population change and the The post-war period, hasseen substantial, somegmei other matters under discussion here oftenare not single dramatic, mortality declines in both developed and de- and direct, but instead are mediated bya broad array of veloping countries. In developed countries Aliere have political, technological, and economic factors. Theex- also been more erratic changes in fertility patterns, with traordinary force of recent population bhange, however, should not be minimized. Present trends have most, showing post-war recovery from the record -lots no prece- fertility levels of the 1930s (the sp-called Baby Boom dent in human experience in terms of current population in the United States was an extreme example). The size, percentage rates and #61ute size of increase, and post: war recovery was followed almost universally by rapid ultimate projected poliuraqion size. Hence projections fertility declines in the 1900s and.1970s, reaching levels into the future, apart from the normal limitations of all a thrtare now frequently lower even than those of the projections, represent leaps of faith into populationag- 930s. egates that are off the scale of experience. A diffefent set of patterns prevailed in the developing countries.,,lh some countries, notably China, Taiwan, RECEINIT POPULATION TRENDS the Philippines, Tunisia% and Colombia, mortality de- 'clines have been followed by substantial fertility declines This is not the place for an introduction to demography during the 1960S and 1970s from previouslyvery high of for a lengthy re'iew of recent population trendsobbut levels. In other countries, such as Bangladesh; Pakistan, a brief summary is ip order.' Three components of popu- and Egypt, fertility has declined little, if at all. Instill iliTiin changeare centralfertility, mortality, and mi- other countries, such as Kenya, fertility_apparently has increased dramatically. The overall result has beenac- celeration in population growth in 'Much of the devel- Progrero Officer. The Ford Foundation. New York, New York oping world, followed by modest recent declines in Aat 503 504 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK imply a doubling of world population every 35 to 39 growth rates in some areas. The experience.overthe past in which the theoretical three decades may be_seen in Table 1. years. They fit within a frame The world's population increased by 1.9billion, maximum growth rate-assuming excellent mortality conditions and no restraint on fertility-is on the order over 75 percent, in the threedecades from 1950 to 1980, contrast, inflation and interest as Table 1 indicates. Theannual rate of increase was at of 4.0-4.5 percent. (By then-record level of 1.77 percent in the1950 -1955. rates presumably have nq upperbdund.) , declines period, 'but actually accelerated sharplyin the ten years There is reason for concern that the fertility misinterpreted as to 1960-1965, peaking at 1,99 percent(Table 2), This vf the past J5 years have been widely have Was followed by a slower,decline in the rate ofincrease, idence that problems of rapid population growth achievements in fertility reduction . to- a levelof 1.81 percent in 1975-1980-lower thanthe Len resolved'' The peak rate, but' still higher than the190 -1955 in the 1960s and 1970s were significant,indeed,but so reduction. As a result quinquennium. were the achievements in mortality because the higher percentage rates of economic growth rates declined only modestly, fromabout 2 per- growth, inflation, or interest are r lore familiar than de- cent to about 1.8 percent. Theproblem of high popu- mographic rates, it is important to keep recentpopulation lation growth rates has not been resolved in the past of inflection. growth rates in a proper demographicperspective. Sus-- decade. Rather the trend has reached a point but tained annual population growth ratesof 1.8 to 2.0 per- The rate of increase itself is, no longer increasing, instead has declined modestly, though remaining at' ex- cent have never before beenseemforthe world population traordinarily high levels by all past human experience. as a whole.BeCause of continuous-compounding, they -Tabled-Population!. ' (millions) in the Eight Major Areas of the World. 1450 to 2000 t Latin ' Noilem .East South Soviet Europe Oceania Union Year Wdlid AfriPa.'7'.N, Arn,nca Am ca Asia Asia Estimates 392 13 180 1950 2513 219 164 166 673 706 14 196 1 1955: 2745 244 187 182 738 775 408 16 214 .1960 3027 275 215 199 816 867 425 18 231 1965,, 3344. 311 247 214 849 979 445 460 19 244 1970 3678 354 283 226 981.1 1111 1255 47.4 21 254 1975 4033 406 323 236 A 1063 1422 23 267 1980 4415 461 368 '246 1136 484 Projections 492 24 280 1985 4830 545 421 258 1204 1606 26 292 1990-'4%_5275 . 630 478 270 1274 1803 501 1 510 28 302 1995 5733 726 ,. 541 281 1340 2005 30 312 2000 6199 828 ' 608 290 1406 2205 520 but may be viewed as best AN ailabktstimates for 1980` Notei. Trends given as they wers assessed in 1978. 1980 data are protections from mid -1975 data, Seurat W. P Cr Mauldin. "Population TrendsandPiospectt," Spence, vol. 209 (4 July 1980), p 156 Table 2-Average Annual Rate of Increase (percentage) in the Eight Major Areas of the World,1950-2000. Latin Northern East South Soviet Oceania' Union Year World Africa America America Asia Asia Europe . Estimates 2.25 ) 1.71 1950 to 1955 1.77 2.16. - 2.72 1,80 - 1.85 L86 0.79 2.18 1.77 `1955 to.1960 1.95 2.36 2.78 1.78 1.99 2 24 0.84 2.09 1.49 1960' to 1965 L29 2.49 2.77 io 1. 94 2.44 0,90 1,96 109 1963 to 1970 1.90 2.61 2.67 1.11 1.75 2.52 0)56 1.82 0.84 1970 to 1975 1..84 2.71 2.64 0.87 1.62 2.45 0.61 2.49 0.39 1.47 0.94 1975 to,1980 1.81 2.914 2.66 0.83 1.32 .- 1 Projections 0.94 1980 toI985 1 80 2.97 2.65 0.96 1.16 2 44 0.36 1.41 1.37 0.85 1985 to 1990 1.76 2.93 2.58 0.91 1.14 '231 0.35 1 . 0.37 1.30 0.70 1990 to 1995 1.66 2.81 2.46 0.76 1.01 2.13 , 0.38 1.19 0.64 1995 to/2000 I,56. i64 2.34 0.61 0.95 1.91 Now Trends are given as they.were assessed in 1978, 1980 data are protections from nucl1975 data. but maybe viewed as best avidable estimates for 1980 Source: W Parker Mauldin, -Populabon"Trends and Prospects. Science. vo1. 209 (4 July 1980). p156, ,. ,' , :7p 1. World Population505 Furthermore, it must be noted that the absolutesize of mentum for continued growth over many decades. As population growth is as important as percentage increase,' a result, the demographer can predict trends with rea- and here a fetv numbers illustrate the uniquenessof sonable accuracy over, wveral decades, thoughnot much past decades. The population of Asia alone in 1980 beyond. (Projections of population change to.\the year (2 55R billion), for example, is larger thanthe entire 2000, in contrast to those foreconomic or political world population in 1950 (2.513 billion.). A population change, have Onsiderable plausibility barringunpre- of 730 millionabout as largeas the combined 1980 dictable catastriophes. populations of Northern America and Europe (excluding The conventionally accepted multinational population European portions of the Soviet Union)was added to projections are those prepared penodically by the United the already existing population of South Asiain only 30 Nations Population Division, others are available front years (an increase of 716 million froni 195Q to 1980). the World Bank and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Many similar comparisons could be madeto illustrate Given demographic inertia, available projectionsto the the extraordinary demographic experiencessince World year 2000 are broadly compatible. The_ medium vanant War II. of the widely accepted United Nations projections is Table 2 provides a useful retrospective view ofre- summarized in Table 2.It shows a projected gradual gional growth rates Afnca and Asia shov, clearpatterns decline in world population growth rates of aboutone- of accelerating growth rates in the 1950s and 1960s, quarter of one percent, reaching 1.56 percent overallin while the other regions were more mixed. Since the 1995-2000. At the same time, the rapidlygrowing pop- 1960s most regions have experienced substantial declines ulation base means that the numbers of people added in their rates of population increase. The very lute re- each year will continue to growto about 90 million gion oft.South Asia, however, shows no such decline, additions per year in 1995-2000 vs. about 75, million and the smaller region of Africa shows a rapid andcon- annually in 1980, despite the projected declinein growth tinuing increase in rate of increase right up to the present. rate. The third population change componentmigration The three vanants in United Nations projections show appears to be of large and rapidly increasing magnitude. 'a total world population in 2000 of 5.9, 6.2, and 6.5 There have been, over the past decades; increasingmove- billion. Most other projections cluster around 6 billion. ments within countries from rural to urban areas. In the Agdin using the medium vanant, overall growth of 40 developing world urban growth rates are about twice as percent (1.78 billion) is' projected, with regional in- high as the already high national growth\zates. These creases of 77 percent in Afnca (359 million), 65 percent rapid growth rates suggest unprecedented urban agglom- in Latin America (240 million), 55 percent in South Asia a erations appearing over the coming 29 years. (783 million), 24 percent in East Asia (270 million), 18 International migration, including legal or illegal,po- percent, in Northern Amenca (44 million), 17 percentin litical or economic, temporary or permanent, has also the Soviet Union (4'5 million), and 7 percent in Europe grown rapidly. Both internal and internationaLniigration (36 millionj. have important, if elusive, implications foMssues of The momentum of population grAwth in the devel- resources and international relations. Movement of rural oping countries is likely to continue, although projec- populations from subsistence economies to more energy- tions beyond the year 2060 are quite speculative. No one intensive urban areas, for example, presumably implies can anticipate 'the course of fertility change in4sigh fer- higher per-capita energy needs. Similarly, large migra- tlity regions of South INsia and AfricaAwherelfertility tions from developing countries to developed countries has not yet begun to decline. For this reason, and because suggest greater overall' demand for food, mineral re- catastrophes are possible but unpredictable, there is some sources, and energy., .1 consensus as to the plausible range but none as to The ultimate size of the world's population. Assuming serious mortality increasesor widespread disruptions, POPULATION .TRENDS IN PROSPECT projections vary from 8.5 billion to 13.5 billion or even higher. The lower btund assumes, unrealistically, that Itmust be freely admitted that poptilation projections do the world as a wit 1e will reach replacement fertility; not predict, but rather represent the logical implications approximately the two-child family, within 20 years. of fssumed future-trends in fertility, mortality, and mi- The projection of 13.5 billion assumes replacement fet- gration. Population trends, however, are relatively stable tility in 2040-2045. as compared to the political and economic, due to a Recenttrends in urban growth, as we have already three-part, built-in inertia in demographic change to the noted, suggest future urban concentrations unprece- Year 2000. First, the majority of persons who will be dented in human experience. The United Nations re- living then artalready alive; second, human reproductive cently published revised projections of urban populations behavior chi ges relatively slowly; and third, high ter- 0 up to the year 2000. The projection approach is "state- tility generates a youthful population with strong mo- of-the-art," but/ the authors note that the magnitudes o .. , ,r.. ., i.i 'a. 506 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK increase projected go beyond our experience and may not prove considerable accuracy. There will be a gradual countries, reasonable if human agglomerations of such size cannot in the average age of the population of such from non- be sustained. Despite this appropriate caveat, the pro- and a shifting of the "dependency burden" jections are instructive (see Table 3). productive c 'Idren of school age, to non-productive st-retirement age. As a result, More national The projections show fiveCities larger in 2000 than adults of larger elderly the largest h an agglomeration everexperienced. resources will have to be allocated to the Twenty-yearcreases of between 75 percent and 131 group, and fewer to the smaller young group. percent are projected for seven cities in developing coun- tries, including Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Beijing,Rio k de Janeiro, Greater Bombay, Calcutta, and Jakarta.As LINKING POPULATION TRENDS TO OTHER the United Nations staff notes, some of theprojeCted PROBLEMS numbers, e.g., the 31.0 million for Mexico City, may Population trends underlie all of the other problems under not be attainable due to water supplyproblems, destruc- tion of tree cover, transportation difficulties, and other Consideration here, though the links are not as direct or "natural or social limits to growth."3 unmediated as sometimes Claimed. The linking of pop- hing and contro- Whether or not such magnitudes are attained, the ulation growth to food shortages has a growth of cities in many developing countries seems versial intellectual history, dating .back at least to the Malthus in the certain to be rapid, with consequent stresses on'foodand essays of the Reverend Thomas Robert water supply, building materials, energy,and so on. first half of the nineteenth century. In retrospect, we may There are also likely to be repercussions forpotical conclude that Malthus' concepts were partially correct, organization and stability. but his predictions quite wrong. Technological and other In the developed countries, with fertility already very improvements have allowed food production to more world low and the bulk of the population already using con- than keep up with the unprecedented _growth of traceptives, speculations about the future become more population. Yet in-principle, population cannot continue and signs of re- hazardous. United States fertility in the 1980s is expected to grow indefinitely in a finite world, source shortages and environmental stresses are already to stay low by someexperts4 and by others' to rise dra- matically. In the 1930s in Europe, fertility as low asthat apparent. Several.theoreti01 efforts have been made to calculate in much of the developed world today produced exag- by the gerated alarms about national decline that culminatedin the maximum htiman population sustainable world's agricultural resources, but such calculations a profusion of pronatalistpolicies. Similar policies in much of Eastern Europe in the 1960s sometimesled to often are highly stylizedeven mechanistic. They con- whereas coercive childbearing, as tie means of voluntaryfertility sider arable land availability on a global basis, nation control were denied. Whether such extremist responses in fact land is available only within sovereign assumptions of high average occur, as for most political behaviors in thefuture, can-'states'. They adopt idealistic agricultural productivity, equal distribution of world not be reliably predicted. If fertility does stay low, and internationalmigration food supply, and a worldwide diet equal to that Of Japan. is moderate, we can predict demographiceffects with They take into account no regional limits on water sup-, / plies or difficulties in moving 'surplus water from one region to another, no political or economic limitations on world commerce, and noshortages Of energy or fer- Table 3Projected Population Increases in Major Cities, tilizer supplies. In short, these calculations contradict 1980-2000. reality in fundamental ways. At the same .time, their Projected Estimated realism content is enhanced by their assumption of no Pop. 2000 Pop. 1980 Change/ dramatic quantum improvements in agricultural produc- % Increase City/Region 4410lions) (Millions) tivity. Were such completelS' unpredictable improve: Mexico City 31.0. 15.0 +107% ments to occur, they would counterbalancefife unreality Sao Paolo r 25.8 13.5 +91%. of the other assumptions. Tokyo/Yokohania 24.2 20.0 +21% The most recent effort to project populationtrends in New York/N.E: relation to global resources is the Global 2080Report 22.8 20.2 +,)3% New Jersey produced by the Council on Environ- Shanghai 14.3 +59% to the President, Beijing (Peking) 19.9 11.4 +75%. mental Quality. This three-year project sought tointe- Rio de Janeiro 1,17.0 10.7 _+ 78% grate a series of projections in variousrelated Sectors up greater Bombay 17.1 8.4 + 104% to the year 2000, including: climate,'technology, food 8.8 +90% Calcutta 16.7 and agriculture, fisheries, forestry, water, energy,fuel 16.6 7.2 +131% Jakarta ""1 minerals, nonfuel minerals, and environment. The en- Source: United Nations Poputsuon Envision, Urban. Rural, and City Population,1950-2X0, , data problems, as As :euedf0.1980. ESARAVP.66 (3Juni 1980). p. 38. terpnse presented enormous technical and / . 4..t) . tk -91;111I World Population. 507 and its authors vere forthright in admitting that they opment policies. provide direct or indirect subsidies to were only partially successful. In particular, they were nonfood. production, but deny credit and other needed unable in the time available to them to make the-Various resources to food producers. Other countries use price projections futy interactive, so that changes in one sector controls on food products to keep urban consumer prices could have full feedback effects in the other sectors. The low and thereby stabilize the political structure; but such report's authOrs conclude that the overall impact of these well-meaning controls may also produce losses foriann- deficiencies is to "understate the severity of potential ..,,ersand encourage rural-to-urban migration. Coupled problems the, world dill face as it prepares to enter the with rapid population growt,h and unfavorable climatic 21st century. ,',6 trends, such policies have led to declines in per capita Despite these deficiencies, the Global 2000 Report gpod production in some developing countnes overre- presents some interesting findings. 'It films correctly that cent years, especially in Africa. the momentum bf population growth means that only Second, it may be reasonably argued that global fig- moderate differences in population size by the year 2000 ures on food production are misleading, because the are possible depending, on' the course of fertility in the overwhelming bulk Of food production is consumed lo- coming two decades. The report makes the following cally. Efforts by the Food and Agrictilture Organization projections (1) Gross National Product (GNP) will grow to build a world food reserve have not yet succeeded, more rapidly in developing countries than in developed and even the large volume of Intel-national trade in fodd- countries (2) Because of the lower starting point and the stuffs constitutes only a small proportion of total food more rapid population growth in the.,developing cow-- production. Hence, the primary goal of policy and tech- tries, however, per-capita GNP increase in these coun- nological innovation must be enhanced food production tnes will remain very modest in both absolute and rel- within the countries where demand is increasing rapidly, ative terms (3) Some developing countries, especially with international trade providing only marginal or in Latin America (and presumably some OPEC nations), emergency supplies. will improve significantly in per capita GNP, although others will make few if any gains from present low levels. (Increases in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, for ex- LINKING OF POPULATI9N TRENDS TO ample, are projected at 31%, 8%, and 3% respectively, INTERNATIONAL SECUAITY ISSUES withal! three countries remaininghelow $200-Ter capita in 1975 dollars.)' As a result of,ihese trends, the report The AAAS Five-Year Outlook project mandates consid- projects increasing per capita income disparities between eration of the relationships between population trends the wealthiest and the poorest nations. and international .security issues. The literature onrTPr- With regard to food supply, the Global 2000 Report teniatronal relations contains 'a number of cernmon hy- summarizes its alternative projections with the cheenng potheses which oversimplify this complex issue: proposition that food production can continue to slightly / exceed populationgrowth up to the turn of the century; The larger a nation's population, the greater its actual assuming no deterioration in climate or weather condi- or potential pter. tions. To achieve such growth, however, food produc- Population .gie sure on natural resources contributes tion will require increasing inputs and technologies of to pressure for international aggression to obtain ad-* a yield-enhancing, energy-intensive nature such as fer- ditional such Fes' re'. tilizer, pesticides, herbicides, and irrigation. Such in- Nations with excessive populatidn densities seek "liv- creased energy depende,z ce of agridulukal production has ing space" or "elbow room" via international significant implicationfor the cost ofjood production, aggression.' 410* and the repOrt projects a substantial increase in real food prices over the coming two decades, aftel decades of Empirical analyses of international conflicts do not generally falling prices. Food production affll consump- supp rt most of these hypotheses. In general; population tion is projected td cdntinue to be highly varied among size and density appear to be underlying factors thatNnay the world's regions and nations, with rising food output or may not contribute to international conflict. Much 0 of developing nations barely keeping ahead of rapid pop= depends upon mediating political, social, and economic. ulation growth. Furthermore, the high percentage of in- factors, including stability of national political struc- come already spent on food by hundr'ds of millions of "1tures, -distribution. of availableresources, technological people in poor countries'suggests disturbingimplicativi and capital base of the nation, human capital available, were the report's projected sharp increases in 'real fobd and patterns of consumption. prices to. take place.. .. On the other hand, it is a truism that nothing can grow Two points deserve comment here. First, in many infinitely in a finite world. If population growth contin- developing countries government policies seriously impede ues, it eventually will exceed the social, ecopomic, and. increased food, ptoduction. In some countries, devel- political capacities of some nations. Hence, a summary i ' 1 0 '508 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK assessment might be that eventual restraint on population IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. SCIENCE AND growlh is not a sufficient condition to assure internal and TECHNOLOGY international stability, but that it is a necessary condition. Problems of international conflict often are generated Science and technology have already contributed im- by internal instabilities within nations, as recent expe-- pressi,vetto recent population trends, and can be.ex- nences in the Middle East demonstrate. Hence, itis also pected to continue to do so. The rapid acceleration of important to consider the effects of population change population growth in developing countries after World on internal stability as it relates to internationalrelations. War II owed much to improvements in health, nutrition, In this regard, several demographic4ends demand at- and sanitation, due in some (perhaps great) measure to tention. The first is the unpreceden rapidity of de- science and technology. .The sustainability of the so- mographic change in- many developing cour-si since called population explosion (which in fact bears more World War II. A nation with a very substantial resource resemblance to a speedy glacier than to a bomb) owes base may be able to support a much larger population, much to the improved productivity of agriculture and but if population size increases very dramatically, the technological innovation as well as the capacity to con- rate of increase rather than the population size itself may vert abundant energy resources themselves (also a prod- contribute to instability. uct of technological innovation) into edible calories.'° A second component of high fertility is the, distortions Equally important were improvements in technologies in the age composition which it engenders. High-fertility of significance to public health, ranging from sanitary. populations are also youthful populations, with typically water systems, to biologicals such as vaccines, to im- 45 percent or more of their populations under the age provements in internal and international communication of 15. Apart from the obvious problems such a concen- and transportation that diminished the deadly impact of tration of young people presents for educational and other localized food shortages. . age-related services, such 'a steeply sloping age structure Improvements in communication and transportation implies a very rapid growth in entrants into the labor have alsb contributed to internal and international mi- force each year. The International Labour Organization gration. Isolated rural populations discovered the relative projections, for example, show increases of 600 to 700 attractiveness of life in urban areas or in ether countries million in the developing world's labor force in.the next by listening to transistorized radios and 'Watching tele- twenty years alone. To put these numbers into perspec- visirSh programs brought to them by communication sat tive, such an increase over two decades is larger than ellife. the same time, the improvement of internal the entire'1980 labor force of the whole of the developed road, rail, and air networks have facilitated movements world.9 In many _developing countries4lready expert -__to the urban areas,',,and the increased avail bility and encing very high .rates of unemployment and under- declining real price of international air tray 1 following employment, such a rapid growth of young labor force the- development of modern aircraft technoits has entrants presents serious problems which can spill over sharply reduced the nonlegal barriers_ to international into political instabilities. Such problems are further migration.. Finally, the availability of satellite commu- compounded in many of these countries by very rapid nication has brought vividly to the attention of the world rates of rural-to-urban migration which contribute to even the.plight of millions of miserable refugees starving and more rapid rates of labor force, growth in urban areas. dying on tlx high seas or in temporary encampinenti. Given the near certainty of rapid labor ?orde growth In the way that-television is said to have affected per- in developing countries for the remainder of this century, ceptioiis of the war in Vietnam, so too has it changed labor-intensive development policies, especially in the, public .images of refugee problems. rural areas, represent an important component of efforts Science and technology have also contributed greatly to maintain national coherence ,andinternal stability. To to fertility' decline's. While some form of fertility control the extent instability and dissolution in such countries has been available in most human societies, it is often spill over into the international sphere, as happened re- forgotten that highly effective contraception is a devel-4, cently in Iran, policies favoring intensive and broadly opment of only; the p'ast 20 years; the firstoral contral based job generation also favor international security ceptives were nut Widely marketed until the early ,1960s, interests. Although developing countriesRiemselves and the IUD ;Was not widely available until the same must make any decisions favoring such policies, devel- decade. Similarly, safe and acceptablepale sterilization oped countries such as the United States can make these via vasectomy (the mostpoiular fertility control method policies more attractive and feasible, through trade and in some countries) (lid not become common until the tariff policies that favor imports produced in labor- 19/0s, although tubal ligation for females was in use intensive industries. International political support can earlier. :there have also beep substantial reductions in also encourage governments to glove toward such do- the health risks of indticed,abortion due to technological mestic policies. advances. 9 7 it orld Population Finally, science and technology have also contributed (I) Premarital; greatly to pouf collective understanding of population' (2) Delay (post-m rital, pre-first birth); change and its impacts Demography and some of the (3) Spacing (posrst birth, before completion of fertility), social .and statistical sciences have, over the -past 30 (4) Compler of fertility. years, provided new and powerful tools by which ire are now able toletect and estimate demographic ratesin- some respects analogous to the technologies that have The contraceptive characteristics most suitablefor improved our capacities to assess agricultural potential, each if these stages are presented in Table 4. Suchva- measure air and water quality, and even predict the riety oindividual needs, coupled with the diversity of weather. Such demographic tools now allow Adirect nationa , religious, and cultural settings, suggeststhat estimation of demographic rates among populations there can be no such thing as "the ideal contraceptive"; whose births and deaths are not registered AV*nations('what is required is an array of methods with differing that in some cases have never conducted an adequate attributes, 'collectively providing an adequate scientific census. Other important scientific advances have con- and technologic response to the needs presented byhu- tributed to our understanding of the factors affectingage man diversity. composition and the momentum of population growth, 'Contraceptive technology advanced greatly inthe the patterns of marriage behavior; and the relationships 1960s, but little since, and there are few promising meth- of mortality change to fertility behavior. ods on the immediate horizon. The scientific andtech- nological pipeline is- wparticularly longone in the field of fertility control, given the appropriateconcern of gov- THE OUTLOOK ernmental regulators as to the safety of methods thatmay . ,. be used by millions of healthy young adults. Overthe As 'to future contributions, the capacity of world agri- net five to ten years, only a few potential improvements culture to accommodate to projetted 40 percOt increases are in prospecta sub-dermal implant for slow release in population in 20 years will depend heavily upon the Of contraceptive hormones mayprove effectiv,e and safe, contributions of both. U.S. agricultural prOduction and and some improvements may be made to existing IUD scientific expertise. Similar contributions can be made technology. While science and technology oftencon- on the mortality side, via intensive work on tropical foundthe most reasanable predictions, thereare at pres- diieaseS that continue to be large-scale killers and maim- ent no great anticipations of new methods to fillsome ers, such as river'blindness, schistosoffilasis, diarrheal of the obvious gaps: effective male contraceptivesother diseases, and cliblera. than condoms, and reversible methods ofvo ntary ster- With regard to fertility, it is evident that the array of iiitization. The problemsare,not in the realm chnology contraceptive methods presently available, while a sub- or product development, but rather result from our very stantial improvement over those before 19§0, are inad- limited understanding of/he remarkably complexprocess equate to the, needs of large numbers of people and na- of human reproduction. Yet in the recent past, scientific tions. As has often been pointed out, oral contraceptives attention to this area s been modest; the study of human are relatively nonspecific in their modes of- action, and reproduction, promin nt in the 1930s, nearly diedout have side effects that them inappropriate to the in the 1940s,`and had to be resurrected in the 1960s.As needs of many people desiring effective fertility control. a result, it is a johnny-come-lately that remains a minor Intrauterinie devices (IUDs) equally have notable litni- claimant odgovernment research resources... rtations (iii fact their mode of operation istk&little under- In spite of vigorous rhetoric to the c9ntrary,. available stood), and available ,sterilization methods are, less ac- evidence shoWs that the overwhelming majoqty of thil-d ceptable than they would otherwise be because t world people live in countries whosegovernments ubstantially irreversible. - - openly declare their desire to lower rapidrates pop- urthermore,- the diversity of social, economic; cu - ulation increase. In the most recent survey b e United tural, and religious settings in the world ,today means Nations (in 1978), such counttiescompris fully 82 that a method that is highly preferred in one setting may percent of the population of the developing world, in- be unacceptable' in another. Even withidsocieties, in- cluding most of the largest (for example, China, India; ividuals require different contraceptive techniques; in- Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Pakistan). A relatively large deed the same individual requires a variety of methods number of nations with small populations, especially in through his or her lifetimea useful illustration of the Latin American and sub-SaharanAfrica, however, reject ' fliVersity of contraceptive demands.. If we define "mar- the need for such a demographically oriented policy. ital" to include stable consensual unions,we can de- Hence the one-nation/one-vote structure of the United , scribe four stages of the individual's reprOductive life Nations and other international forums sometimescon- cycle:ii. vey4 a lekz promine t commitment to reducing rapid 1 510. AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK MJ mechaniims underlying past fertility declines are im-- Table 4--paracteristtc.s of Contraceptives Related to Life Cycle Stage. perfectly understood, even for the now developed 'coun- tries. Existing governmental strategies aimed at encour- Stage Characteristics aging fertility decline range widely: I. Premantal ,Ritlatively irregular and infrequent exposure. development policies aimed at enhan 'rig presumed Intercourse-related methods indirect factors favoring fertility declin (Egypt); (particularly postcoital) somewhat policies for directly providing knowlee and means more acceptable than in delay and Bang- spacing stages. of fertility regulation (India, China, !lexica, Serious consequences for contraceptive ladesh, and Indonesia, to name a few); failure.' the use of -economic and other incentives affecting Limited kilowledge of and access to individual fertility behavior (Singapore, China); fertility control. official support-tor direct application, of"Pressure"It Limited independent access to medical system, hence nonmedical delivery is or "persuasion" (Cta). preferable. Reversibility highly important. lf,future policies are to be more effective, there is much 2Delay: Iostmantal. Frequent exposure. to be learned about the impactsof such an array of Pre-first birth Relative ly'moderate consequences for strategies in diverse settings, and the tools of socialsci- contraceptive failure. only means for such Relatively short period of protection ence and evaluation research are the required learning. Such efforts can be highly cost-effective, as 'Methods where application is a iniftest research investment canresult in substantial Independent of intercourse are highly improvement in the implementation of expensivelarge- desirable scale programs, and can suggest new or additional strat- High acceptability and convenience social, important egies that may prove more effective in a given Method delivery via medical system is economic, or culturaisetting. lessiundesirable than in plemantal It is commonly believed, and oftenpronounced, for stage due to readier access to example, that declines in infant and childmortality are medical system. both necessary and sufficientto lower fertility; hende in Reversibility highly important. 1 policiessconcentrate,heavily on Frequent exposure. many settings Population 3. Spacing: Post -first Scientific evidence birth, Moderate consequences for maternal and child health services. Precompletion contraceptive failure. on this question, however, ismixed. Historical analyses Long time span (as sum of separate of the European fertility transition suggestthat mortality birth intervals) of protection declines were not consistently important explanatoryfac- required that Reversibility somewhat less important tors." Evidence from developing countries suggests than in delay stage. fertility_ response to infant and child death is ;only par- 4. Completion 2f wanted Long time span of protection required. tial," and may be larger in some settings thanin others. fertility - Less frequent exposure than in delay Equally unknown is the nature of factors that haveled and spacing stages. to dramatic increases in marriage agethat in some coun- Serious consequences for contraceptive tries have occounted for a large percentageof birth rate failure. - 'Intercourse-related methods somewhat declines. Enhanced understanding here Couldprovide more acceptable than in delay and new and effective policy leversfor government officials. _ spacing stages. Finally, knowledge of the pattern, magnitude's,and Acceptability and convenience kss migration, is noto- important than iti earlier three stages. ,causes of internal and international Reversibility less-important than in riously deficient; as these population movements grow three previous stages. in size and impact, it is evident that copingwith them' - only with sci- Note: Gharactensues chscussed here arcaveragecharactensucs and need not apply to any will require the illumination that comes particular individual m any stage. entific analysis. Source Roy 0, Greep, et al ,Reproduction a nd Human Welfare .Cambridge,Mass and innovation London- MIT Press, 1976), p 71 United States scientific and technological ranks high as both initiator and moderatorof recent pop- rapid population population increase in the deleloping nations than isin ulation prat/Isms. Many of the effects of growth are only now coming to befelt; as the large faCt the case. - surviving generations born in the 1960s and1970s reach The ability of developing countries to lowertheir pop- adulthOod and seek employment and lives of human ulation growth rates as a matter of public policydepends heavily upon improved knOwVdge of the social, Ico- dignity. It seems certain thavneetingthese,humankieeds decline, and and moderating present rapiates ofpopulation gThwth . tornic, and cultural factors favoring fertility impleMenting service programs that will require enlyhncemental U.S. scientific and tech- on improved skill in coming decades. must reach literally millions of couples.The causal nological contributions over the 14 -129 . World Population 5141 NOTES AND gEFERENCES 8. See U.S. House of Representatives, Select Committeeon Pop= ulation, Population and Development Assistance, 95th Congress, I. For an authoritative yet concise assessment,see W. Parker Maul- Sec- &td Session (December1978), pp. 20-22. din, "Population Trends and Prospects," Science, vol. 209 (4 July 1980), pp. 148-157.. 9. International Labour Organization, Labour ForceEstimates and Projections, 150-2000, Second Ed., vol. 5 (Geneva.1977), Table 2. See, for example, the controversy and reportage that followed 6. publication of ArMy Ong Tsui and Donald J. Bogue, "Declining World 10. As an indicatidn of'how rapidly Fertility Trends, Causes, InxlicatiOns," Population Bulletin, vol. 33 perceptions can change, it is worth recalling that only a decade (September 1978). or so ago there were popular and scholarly discussions. of developing 3. United Nations Population Division, Urban, 'Rural? and City new technologih by which cheap petroleum from the Middle East could be converted directly Population, 1950-2000, as Assessed in 1980. ESA/P/WP. 66 (3 June into edible 1980), p. 57. proteins during tanker shipment. 11. Roy 0. Greep et al., Reproduction and Human Welfare(Cam- 4. Charles F. Westoff, "Marriage and Fertility in the Developed bridse, Mass. and London: MIT Press, 1976),pp. 68-73. Countries," Scientific American,*vol. 239 (Decenlber 1978).. 12 Ansley J. Coale, "The Demographic TransitionReconsidered," 5 Richard A Easterlin, Birth and Fortune (New York: Basic Books, Proceedings of the InternationotAUnionfor the Scientific Studyof Pop- 1980) ulation (Liege. 1973), pp. 53-72; and Michael S. Teitelbaum,"Rel- 6 U S President, Council on EfivironmentalQuality andp S. De- evance of Demographic Transition Theory for DevelopingCountries," , partment of State, The Global 2000 Report to the President (Wash- Science, vol. 188 (2 May 1975), pp. 420-25. ington, DC US Government Printing Office, 1980), vol. 1, p 7. 13. See, for example, Samuel H. Preston, ed., Effectof Infant and 7 Ibid., p 13. aafli Child Mortality on Fertility (New York: AcademicPress, 1977) el 4 130 t.. t a 4 Iternational Security Implicatios- of Materials and. Energy Resource.Depletion William A. Vogely*. 3 INTRODUC ION If the present giowths trends ...continue un- . changed, the limits to growth on this planet will be Materials energy depletion have been continning reached sometime within the next 100 yews.... fears of since the industrial revolution. Tlrough- it' is possible to alter these growth trends and to out the niniteenth and twentieth centuries, thoughtful establish a condition of ecplbgical and_economic obSeryers hive warned bf the ultimate exhaustion of the stability that is sustainable far into the future.' materials d energy resources upon which 'society is The su,bj based. Clasical economists predicted a steady state of of materials depletion is an extremely broad and m ifaceted one. This paper limits itself to no growth,and labor at subsistence wages. In 1866 Stan- looking at ley Jevonswrote in the preface to the second edition of e implications of -materials and resource. The Coaluestion: depletion or international security. Thus, it will ignore many interesting and important areas, such as conser- Renetwed reflection has convinced me thatmy main vation and environmental issues concerning the produc- position is only too strong and true. It is simply that tion and use of materia4 and energy. It will, however, we Cannot IQng progress as.we are now doingnot look at the process of resource depletion in order to state onlybmiist we meet some limit within our own coun- clearly the. nature of the deplpfion problem. try,, but ut we must witness the coal produce of other countries approximating it .to our own and ulti- mately passing it... our motion must be reduced to rest, and it is to this change, my attention is THE PROCESS OF RES, OU directed. DEPLETION Resource concepts are seman y(difficultbecause the Jevons' wor in a diffe*nt context, are echoed in 1972 terminology used to describe resources is confusing and in the introduction to The Limits to Growth: the same'V/ords mean different gs to different people. The literature is full of itsburce li e indexes whichdivide resource stock by either annual or umulative production based upon.an annual rate of rowth, and measure_ the Professx ci Mineral ECOOOMIC7, Pemnilvarua Stale University, University Park. Painsylvania. number of years remaining to each resource before it is 513 514AAAS POLICY.OUTLOO v . exhausted. These indexesisunderstand, perhaps delib- REPLACEMENT OF DEPOSITS . erately,the nature-of resource supply Whether presented Except in geologic time, the distribution of energy and with sophistication and understaltding or presented-in materials m the earth's crust can be taken as fixed. In ignorance, the resource life indexes represent a funda- this. distribution, deposits come in all sizes, shapes, mental misstatement of the problem ofdepletion Re- grades, and chemical charactenstics. These depositsarea sources flow into the economy they are not aninvh- discovered through exploration. The deposits that are tory to be used over time. profitable to develop become producing mines and con- Depletion of a natural resource occurs at three distinct tain reserves. As it ceases td be economicallyattractive levels: (1) single deposits; (2) the replacement of deposits to extract resources from a deposit: thatdeposit is re- in the production function; .and (3) at the ultimate oc- placed by a new one. New deposits are discovered by currence of the resource in the earth. Muchor the-Mis- investment in exploration, and become producing mines understanding about resource terminology has occurred through further investment: The replacenient of deposits* because words derived from one of these levels are ap- is a function of exploration and ofinvestment to develop plied- to another-level.'- the deposit. Deposits frequently remain undeveloped. becau,se the economic cost of developing 'them is not attractive,-given themarkets for the commodities. Thus, deposits are replaced either when a new,economically DEPLETION OF A RESOURCE DEPOSIT attractive deposit is discoyered or when technologiesfor developing known deposits at an attractive cost are Natural resources occur in nature in deposits whichhave developed. unique .chemical, physical, and locational characteris- At this second level of constderation depletion can be tics. Some deposits of mineral resources tare economic said to be occurrin(when the replacement deposits are to produce in relation to the markets for theirproduct. of higher real cost per unit than the depleted deposits These deposits may be developed into producinibsites: that they replace. This is the aspect of depletion that has (solid; or fields, reseoirs, mines, if the resources are been discussed rpost,thoroughty in the literature. Intheir known or wells, if the resources are liquid and gas. A path-breaking book, Scarcity and Growth, H.J. Barnett deposit that is cApable of being produced today is called and C.Morse tested the process of depletion ofIreppce- a reserve. These'reserves will be producedthrough time merit deposits by positing that it were occurring, the from the deposit. The deposit may be extended through real -costs or real price of materials should berising exploration; the \reserves, through additional capitaL in- through time,' They were notable to prove this hypoth- vestment. Material produced from that deposit, however, esis aii4gin fact founOharsuch real costswere declining will not be replaced m the deposit, thus the deposit will in the period or 1870 to the 1950s.Recent work by V. begin to be depleted as it is produced. Depletion of a Kerry Smith and others has weakened that coklusion deposit simply means that for every ton produced there with respect to the period following the 1950s.4 Itis deposit IS is one ton less left to produce. As a single depletion in this sense, however, which underlies most used up, the cost of production from the deposit tends of the literature with respect to resource exhaustion. to increase. The deposit is considered 'depleted"when itino longer economically attractive tocontinue pro-. DEPLETION QF THE RESOURCEBASE' . 'duction. The deposit will then be abandoned and, some would say, it is exhausted. - All of the eleinents in the upper earth's crust, water, and It is important to note, however, thatvirtually no re- a.tmospherstare considered the resource base. It is theo- sources have been physically exhausted.For a typical Ietically impossible to deplete the-se resources. Mankind oil field, an average of over 60% of the original oil is only able to redistribute, not destroy them. In the case concentrates them 'remains in the deposit upon abandonment.Ili the ease of the nonfuel resources, production of the nonfuel .resources, mine sites are abandoned be- from their natural occurrence andin a sense, creates cause the reiRaining ore does notjustify further invest- new,mines from which they can be reclaimed through ment to develop-it. But if the investment againbecoines recycling. In the case of the energy resources, use does worthwhile, the oil field or mine site may be reopeied. reduce the energy potential contained in those resources uni- With high prices of gold, 'for example, hundredsof and in that sensetincreasesthe entropy within the are to abandoned mine sites in the West are being opened,, and verse. Clearly the forces of geologic processes reach with the increased price of oil, abandoned wells areitlso level the earth, and in time the energy flow will an equilibrium state of zero., The time spansfor such being produced.- . the_projected-and _Reseixes are_determined"and_measuredin_tenns_of_a_ events, howeyerare welLbeyond specific deposit., Deposits are abandoned for economic sible survival of mankind. in reasons, and not because their contents areliterally:ex- From d global point of yiew, resource deposits them under hausted or reduced nizero. nature can be ranked by the cost of producing 1'4"Aso Resource Depletion515 any given state of technology. Such a ranking, although TOTAL RESOURCES impossible to quantify, would present a picture of a step- wise increase in cost as resources with different eco- nomic dimensions are used. At one end of the spectrum would be the resource cdntedt of sea water or of Common, rocks. the supply of which is "inexhaustible." The cost of obtaining any given mineral element from these ul- timate resources may be infinitely high; but these re- sources are, neveptheless, physically inexhaustible. SUMMARY As Ziminerman has pointed out, "resources are not, they become."' The principles we have sketched underlie the current orthoddx classification of -resources along the double axis of economic availability and geologic iden-. 4 INCREASINEFOEGNEE OF tification. The current resource classification system'used GEOLOGIC ASSURANCE by the federal government, presented in Figure 1, illus.. trates these 'concepts. This basic idea of .resource cate- Figure 1 Classification of Mineral Resources gorization has many variants, and, of course, there is much discussion concerning what kind of numbers to put in the various boxes. The process of resource depletion a common analytical structure. They involve adequacy is both an economic and a geologic phenomenon. It is as measured by supply with respect to an objective or economic in the sense that any deposit will be abandoned demand for the resource. Adequacy always has a supply when continued production is no longer economically and a demand side. justified;" the replacement of that depleted deposit de- pends both on geologic occurrence of deposits and the THE SUPPLY SIDE OF ADEQUACY economics of additional, capacity; and finally, the limit Virtually all analyses of the supply side of adequacy.start on further production is always an economic, not a geo- with some measurement of the size of the various re- logic, phenomenon. , sources categories shown in Figure 1. As we have already noted, transformation of resources to reserves is the fun- damental issue on the supply side of resource adequacy. THE CONCEPT OF RESOURCE ADEQUACY. Recognizing this, we see at once that the critical variable is the quantity of reserves that can be ultimately devel- The concerns expressed by the authors quoted in the oped, given the economic costs. But this quantity is introduction relate not to exhaustion as a phenomenon unknown and, at the current state of our knowledge._ but to the fact that a decline in resource availability to"'unknowable. All attemptt to estimate what R.G. Ridker mankind will impose real limits to the quality of life of and W.D. Watson call "prospective reserves" involve mankind. This concern, which broadens the scope of the the application of the current state of human knowledge analysis from the economics and geology of resource to predict or project unknown quantities.' There are three deposits, raises the problem of resource adequacy. By primary methodologies being used to make such estimates. definition, adequacy must be measured in terms of ob- The most-familiar method relates the remaining vol- jectives. Thus, the subject of resource adequacy has both umes of prospective reserves to the rate with which re- a supply and a use sidel----Sael-al general measurei of serves have historically been developed and. used.'These resource adequacy have been proposed. T. Page, for time rate methods flow from the pioneering work of King ,example, suggests that we use constant costs of resource Hubbert, and they indicate a limited prospectiye reserve availability through time as a test of resource adequacy. category for oil and gas; uranium, and some*other major V.K. Smith tries to develop a scarcity index of resource mineral commodities.' A second technique uses a geo- adequacy.6 Others define it more narrowly, in terms of logic or geographic analogy whereby the material and resource adequacy for a three year war, as defined by fuel content of a known geologic environment is assumed government policy with respect to strategic stockpiles to_be_replicated_in_all-stich-geologic-environments-in-the StilHithers look at resourmadequacy front the point' of. earth's crust, or in a more general sense, the material view of whether a given resource is adequate to allow and energy,cohtent of a given geographic area is assumed society to undertake actions to replace its use with an- to be replicated, in other equal -in -size areas. The third other, which is the current underpinning of energy policy method is to ask the experts and develop a probability with respect to liquid fuels. All of these concepts have range around an estimate.9 1, 516AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK The usefulness and accuracy of each of these methods DEMAND SIDE OF ADEQUACY is,.. of course, open to sharp attack, on the grounds that The determinants of resource demand can be categorized we cannot estimate 'a phenomenon when ourbasic sci- into seven mar variables:" entificunderstanding of that phenomenon is flawed. At the beginning of the energy crisis,,when it became very (1) Demographic variables such as size, rate of growth, important to develop an understanding of the future and age and sex distribution of population; number availability of petroleuin and natural gas in the United of households; and labor-force participation rates. States for public policy purposes, the Federal Energy (2) Standard of living, usually represented by percapita Administratign asked"a group of distinguished statisti- gross product. cians to loot at the alternative methods for estimating (3) Style of living, such as the pattern of preferences in the ultimate reserves or producibility of oil and gas in consumer goods and transportationservices. the United States. These statisticians, working inde- (4) Geographic distribution of population between urban pendently, each arrived at the same conclusion that none' and rural. of these estimating techniques was statistically reliable.'° (5) Technological structure, that is, the 'means by which The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a model for goods are produced from resources. the availability of petroleum that shows the absolute ne- (6) International trade relationships. cessity' of starting with a scientifically justified model of .(7) Institutions and policies, for example, environmental the occurrence of deposits by size distributioh and other characteristics in the earth's crust. This has to be fol- requirements. lowed with knowledge, of how many of 'these deposits The above factors affect the demand for total re- can be discovered and at what cost throughexploration, ,sources. The use of any single resource is the resultof and so on through the development and production demands for final goods, the technology of production stage." of each good, and relative prices. The import of the preceding paragraph is that we must It is clear that many of these variables are useless for give up any hope of developing a scientific model of projecting material demands, since their projection is future availability at what cost for any material or energy difficult, and the-relationship between them and Specific resource. At best we can take the first element of resource resource demands is very complex and uncertain. -Most classification, reserves, as the minimum that will become analyses of projelted reSource demands rest upon some available, by definition, at current real price. Beyond simple assumptions of the relationship aniong specific that, we canwith decreased certaintyestimate geo- resource demand, levels of production, and, in some logic discoveries and technological advances. It must be cases, the price of the resource. The important point to understood, however, that any figure or range of figures be made here is that, just' like the supply side of ade- so developed misstates the' fundamental conceptof the quacy, the demand side ot adequacy is essentially un- supply of resources. The supply of resources .is, in fact, knotvn and unknowable, as it depends irrevocably upon is not the .ex- a flow of resources to the economy. It the develcrpment-Of future technologies and 'price haustion of a fixed stock. Whether or -not resource de- relationships. pletion in the sense of rising costs occurs is a function of future technology ip exploration and in production. Knowledge of future supply side availability is very RECENT STUDIES OF RESOURCE ADEQUACY limited. The origin and real costs of supplies for the next decade are now known with very small margin 1if error. There have been three major studies, published' in ,1979 -The margin o error consis s primarily of thepolitical---and-1980-,-which -have ittempted-to-measure-in-quenti- Trailability of known resources, that is, cut-offs in sup-'tative terms the adequacy of materials and fuels re- plies arising from political constraints, such as war or sources." These studies carefully 'examine the evidence, embargo: In addition, there is the unknown probability make what the authOrs consider to be conservative pro- of major natural disasters. Finally, there is a small prob-I jections, and draw general conclusions. All three studies ability at the margin that major new deposits or technical indicate that depletion, as measured by its economic advance could change the 'supply situation within the dimension of increasing costs, does not present a chal- next decade. The latter is extremelyunlikely, given the lenge to resource adequacy for a minimum of three long lead times necessary to develop the productive Ca-- ades. The studies do conclude, however, that in the area parity and infratiucture-involviditrmajor-new-pratelialof-energy,society-faces-a-transition-from-its_ current and energy projects. For many commodities, current re--,_sources'to alternative sources, and that the effect of re- serves contain quantities that still will not beused before source 'depletion on the quality of life rests upon the the end of the century. For others, current reserves will successful conduct of that transition. i not last this decade if demand for themcontinues at The concept of resource adequacy -rests upon the con- , junction of materials and energy supply with materials current. levels. . 1) A CA Resource Depletion517 and energy demand The essential prOblem is whether atively easy. An oil reservoir might be a bonanza ih quantities will be available at any given pnce level to Oklahoma, for example, yet the same oil reservoir in meet 'requirements at that price level. The future char- offshore Nova Scotia might not be a commercial find. acteristics of economic availability are unknown and, at Resources can-be categorized with respect to the im- the current state' of knowledge, unknowable; Therefore, portance of the market and transportation systems in their any projections of availability as a function of priceto location. For the construction matenals that make up in through time for mineral resources are highly uncertain. total bulk most of the materials society uses, develop- The same cab be,said for the projection for the use of ment 'is almost entirely market oriented. At the other mineral resources, that is, the demand side. Both the extreme, thejerroalloy metals, which are geographically supply function and the demand function are subject to- scarce and measured-in pounds rather than in tons, are extremely complex determination, and predictitin of the developed where they are found. Most major resources factors determining each through the future is virtually lie between these extremes. impossible. The predictions progressively lose credibil- Commodities produced far from their markets create ity as a function of future time. The situation is not, international security implications. The major one of however, as bleak as it seems. If the adequacy of resource course, is petroleum, but cobalt, chromium, platinum availability is seen as a process rather than a point es- group metals, manganese, copper, and bauxite are also timation, itis possible to develop strategies addressed important. Each of these is briefly discussed below. to the procesg- itself which have implications and via- bilities beyond our knowledge of future outcomes. PETROLEUM The United States and other Western industnalized coun- tries use petroleum primarily for transportation, but also WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTION OF RESERVES for industrial processing and household energy. The bulk Re'serves are developed in response to economic incen- of petrolettm entering into world trade is subject to the tives, that is, the prospects of returns from development actions of a cartel that has been successful in raising the of mineral resources. The factors that determnie which pnce of petroleum in the world markets. The success of deposits will be...discovered 'and then developed into pro- the cartel flows from two fundamental characteristics of ductive reserves involve calculations not only of the costs the petroleum market: of developing the deposit itself but "also of transportation Because the demand for liquid petroleum is techno- and marketing of the output. The closer a given deposit logically fixed, in its transportation uses, at least for is to the market place, the greater the likelihood it will a significant period of time, rapid substitution away be developed. Deposits in remote areas must carry a from liquid petroleum in transportation is virtually substantial premium in the sense Of economic rents to impossible. justify.the transportatroitand other costs involved in their The search for new petroleum reserves is expensive development. and carries a long lead time, and so the development It is not surpising, th n, thmineral developments of reserves outside of the cartel's control is a relatively have been Iblcated near in trial mar. The impor- slow process. tance of location to production, is perhaps best illustrated by the steel industry, where location has been the result. These two factors combined have permittedthecartel of the confluence of the basic raw matenals, energy, and to raise the price'of petroleum on world markets by an markets. In the United States, the original centers- of order of over the past ten years. The Arab production were in the Pittsburgh area. These centers portion of the OPEC cartel did use the "oil weapon" used river transportation fthe coal,.itim ore, limestone, and imposed an embargo in 1973, and supply ,fican the and other inputs to the prffless, and served the emerging Middle East has been interrupted periodically due to wars industrial complex of Pennsylvania Wand, Ohio. As the since 1950. Thus, petroleum is an example of a cone iron ore supply shifted northward to Mimfesota, a second centration of world reserves under the control of a cartel . complex, centered in Gary, Indiana, was generated along andjubject to supply interruption by "deliberate action the shores of Lake Michigan. The Japanese steel industry or as a result of political developments. takeg full advantage of low-cost ocean transportation for all of its raw materials and much of its product. The total cost of supplying a market is cntical itidecisions COBALT about where to locate production. Over 40 percent of the world mine production of cobalt r, Of course, the location decision is affected by the comes from, Zaire, which has well over a thircr of the geokigy of the mineral resource itself. Giventall other world reserve base. Cobalt has a variety of uses, but its factors, however, exploration` will tend to be concen- most important one, from the point of view of interna- trated in those areas where development would be rel- tional security, is for turbine engiiies in aircraft. It is . a, 4 ob. 518 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK produced as a by-product of copper and the p ce is set SUMMARY "by the Zairian source. Total world production is only Distribution of reserves and productive capacity Within about 35,000 tons. the world arises from geologic and economic factors. As indicated above, geology has played the moselmportant CHROMIUM role in production of petroleum and some of the ferro- alloy metals. For most othermaterials the primary factor Chromium is an essential ingrtdient for the makinA of has been economics, not geology. stainless steel. Thirty-five percent of world production conies from the Republic of South Africa, which also has two-thirds of the world reserve base. 'PLATINUM RESOURCES QN1tECONOMIcDEVELOPMENT Half of the world production and three-quarters of the Abundant natural resources have played a major role in world's reserve%base for platinum group metals is in the the economic dFelopment- of theolations of world. Republic of South Afnca. Virtually all of the remainder At the time of the industnal revolution, the confluence m&is in the Soviet Union. A major use ofplatinum that of energy and material availability was a determining raises international security implications is its use as a fac,tor in the location of major industrial activities catalyst in the refining of petroleum./It is also used for Clearly, the emergence of Great Britain, Western Eu-. emission control in automobiles in t e United Stales. rope, the United States, and Japan as major industrial powers is based upon a natural endowment of energy and material iesources or access toipcean transportation MANGANESE to permit their acquisition relatively cheaply.. Manganese is an essential ingredient, under current tech- The developing couiitnes now look upon resourcesaas nology, for the making of steel..ThetRepublic of South a major means of facilitating their economic develop- Africa supplies a fifth of the world's mine production, ment.tThe export earnings flowing to the oil producers, but over 40 percent of the free-world production. South greatly enlarged by their cartel action, have provided a Africa contains three-quarters of the free world reserves clear example of the transfer of wealth from the indus- and about h third of the world reserves of manganese. trialized countries to the raw material producers. In ad- dition to petroleum, copper has played a major role in sg' Chile and Zambia and is looked upon as a major cbn- COPPER tributor in such countries as Papua New Guinea and per reserves are muct morebroadly distributed than Panama. The Republic of South Africa, which is blessed Atrother Commodities listed above, but copper does not geologically with a disproportionate endowment bf man- enter into world trade in significant volumes. The largest ganese, chrome, and pldtinuni group metals, has used these materials plus gold and diamonds as a major source producers are the United States, Chile, the Soviet Union, . Canada, and Zambia, in decreasing ordet. On the reserve of its wealth. base side, the,rserves are held Rpproxinirely one-fifth Among the industrialized countries, the Soviet Union by Chile, another fifth by the United States, followed is least dependent upon the international flow of goods 1,1,,, by Russia, Zambia, anc1 Canada, each of Whom has less for its mineral and energy supplies. In part, this is due to resource endowment, but it is also due to deliberate than -10 \ government policies. The Soviet-Union; forexa-Mple, does not rely on imports of badxite for itsaluniinum and BAUXITE thereby imposes substantialaddiliOnal costs for the pro- Bauxite is the ore for aluminum.-Bauxite ores are widely duction of aluminum metals. At the other extreme, Japan' --\) distributed throughout the world, but. bauxite is a cord., has virtually no natural resources and is ilierefore almost modity in which the geographical separation between the entirely dependent upon the rest of the world for imports ore producers and the metal producers -is pronounced and of materials and energy for her industrial production. .0 virtually all of the bauxite enters into foreign trade. The Bet een these extremes, the United States-lies closer to largest prtducer is Australia which accounts for about R ssia, and Europe lies closer to Japan. 30 percent of the world's production. Guinea and Ja- e nonindustnalizeai----dtf-the world depend upon claims to . maica each produceaboin' 15 percent, and inclAridual raw material exports as their major earner of countriesdrop off sharply froirthat level. On the reserve goods and services, and the industrialized countries de- side,Guinea has approximately 30 percent, Australisk10 pc. nd upon raw material imports to Maintain their econ- percent, followed by Brazil and Jamaica with about 10 omies. This fact creates). in essence, a'bilateral Monopoly percent each. bargaining position between the raw material exporters I') '14 / vv Resource Depletion519 and the industrialized countries of (the West. Theell- INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES goiters -have a strong bargaining chip in that the indtis- Two major issues arise from the geographic and trialized societies, certainly within short time spans,can- eco- t nomic distribution of materials and not.n operate without the materialsand energy they energy raw materials in the world: produce. On the other hand, unless these materials. and energy ere sold to the industrialized countries, the ex- , porters ..will not be able to-enjoy the returns from them (1) How can the industrialized world dealwith supply interruptions? anwill suffer dramatically in terms of.Wealth. "(2) Does relative depletion ofresources in the indus- trialized countries jeopardize the comparative ad- ROL OF DEPLETION vantage of the manufatturing sectors of these econ- omies, leading to short-term transition probIttns and The time frame of this. aper is five years or, generously, long-term deterioration in their terms of trade? the decade of the 1980s. Depletion-of materials anden- ergy resources during the next ten years will not signif- The United States has been addressing the first issue icantly affect the flows of trade and the' international in several contexts almost continuously sinceWorld War security aspects of materials and energy availability- to II. A large number of presidential commissions andspe- the United States. In this sense, depletion is simplyun-, cial studies have dealt with the so-called critical matenals important within the context of this analysis. problem. At present, for example, serious discussions In Iwo of the specific .commodities we have already concerning the "resource war" with southern Africa la- discussed, however, historical depletion is important to bel the Republic of South Africa in particularas the the current situation. The United States was the first large "Saudi Arabia, of materials." In the United States", the developer and 'user of petroleum in the world and has President's nonfuel mineral policy study draftreport for many years maintained a position as either the major identifies the ncentration of productive capacity and or a major producer of copper. On a relative basisthen, reserves in southern Africa of chromium, cobalt, man- the geologic deposits Of petroleum and copper available ganese; and the platinum group metals as a major issue within the continental United States have been depleted with respect to short-term interruption of supplies.16 The relative to 'deposits occurring in other portions of the: so-called energy cnsis is precisely of thesame nature, world. To,the extev that intensive exploration for these in that interruptions ,of pet Oleum-have immediate and resources has discoveted relatively high grade and easily serious consequences to thindustrialized countnes. found resources within the land available for exploita- A second consideration, separate but related to supply tion, future distoveries will be relatively less probable interruptions, is the,economic terms upon which these in the United States than in the rest Of the world. The internationally traded materials become available to in- same situation applies to a-wide range of other matenals dustrialized societies. Oil is the.significantmatenal that fount in the United States, suchas zinc, potash, and raised this issue, simply because of its importancein the sulfur., . . world economy. Cartels have been tried in bauxite, and .FOr the ether material's discussed -above however, there is producer pricing of both cobalt and chrome. geological factors haveprevented the United States from These materials have economic values in the smallrange ever enjoying comparative advantage in their production: of millions of dollars, however rather than in thetens These materials are relatively scarce ones (except baux- , of billions, and thus the impact of price riseson the ite) and the bestdeposits simply do not occur 1.vithin the overall economy is relatively trivial. boundaries of this country. Thus, the development of The issue of 1pss of comparative advantage isa erious these materials has occurred outside oFthe united States one for the futUre of the United States, in particu. The arid- depletion, as such, has playedno role in that U.S.. indu,trial base was built whilee UniteStates development. . had access towheap and convenientlylacednatural re- .ei.oina world perspective, issues of resourcedepletionI sources./Several basic industriesare showing signs that. may have implications centuries from now. Muth fun- they have,lost their international comparative advantage , damental work is now being undertaken to try to un- and perhaps their absolute adv ge. The problem of derstand the nature of substitution between refources,-. the steel industry, the automobile/ dustry, and the t-the capital, and labor in theroduction function of society) industry are symptomatic .ofithiS development. So-long If,4111 fact, this substitution is limited, then the question as the decline occurs inan'orderly way and does not of resource constraints placing' a major limit on the generate substantial local income distribution problems, growth and,welfare of.societyls perhaps still open. De- its impact may not,raise serious issues. But in thecase pletion in this sensels of great theoretical interest, but 9f steel and automobiles, in particular, the transfer of blittle practical;Antertst inte f resource availability labor and capital from a declining basic industry toa over the next ten years::, growing sector of the economy generates very substantial f a a/ 3. ;' e. 520 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK $ economic problems and perhaps international security of the national security issues identified here argue implications. against the sledgehammer solution of imposed self- The two problems are related and aggravated, in part, sufficiency. Self-sufficiency as a strategy, dcourse, by relative resource depletion. Such relative depletion would address both of the issues identified above. contributes to the loss of comparative advantage, which in turn, contributes to increasing import flows of basic STRATEGIES FOR SUPPLYINTERIIIVION commodities, such as steel. There are ip general several approaches to lessen the\ impact of a supply interruption' on those materials for *4« which the United States depends significantly on foreign ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES sources, including: The issues of supply interruption and loss of comparative maintenance of stocks of the material within the con- international advantage are interrelated in a direct but .. tinental United States; subtle way. If society decides to solve the. first problem in ways, that substantially increase the cost of raw ma- mainteriancWoLaandby productive capacity for the terial supplies, it will exacerbate the second problem of material in the United States; comparative advants ye.. Energy provides a clear exam- development of on-the-shelf technology to substitute ple. The suffering'a loss of comparative ad- for the specific material in critical uses; minimize the use of the vantage, such as the p mary metals and basic_manufac- fostering design ch turing industries, he energy as a major cost of matenal; production. Thus, if f the United States decides to soNe creating substitutes for the imported material from its energy supply problem by imposing substantial costs domestic production of the same material on a sub- on U.S. consumers above those borne by the other in- sidized .basis. dustrialized countries, this action in and of itself will accelerate the problems arising from a declining indus- Any of these strategies involve a cost to society jus- trial base. This implies that the strategies for attacking tified, presumably, by the benefit in mitigating the prob- these two problems must be considered together. Any ability of a costly supply interruption. The strategy which viable solution must take- full account of their should be followed depends then on the specific com- modity situation with which the' United States is faced. interdependence. ' " We have already decided in the case of materials*Aeded for national defense that a strategic stockpile of supplies? THE SELF-SUFFICIENCY STRATEGY for a specific national security emergency is:the best This is p.resented in the hopes that it will be perceived form of insurance. That strategic stockpile, however, is as a straw man argument. It must be taken somewhat not useful for commercial supply interruptions and may srAioiisly, however, 'since the initial response of the fed- involve substantial costs to society because it Must be goverrinient to the Arab oil embargo of 1973 was ma ined for use in a national security crisis. to proclaim a drive foi...."energy independence." It also he alternative solutions to the problem of supply gains credence in the increasing references from many interruption,011 involve-scientific and technological com-, sources to the fact that the Soviet Union is virtually self- ponents'. A deep-sea mining capability, for example, sufficient in energy and materials and this is held ont as ,would!immediately change the reserve and productiqn a, major threat to United States economic, and national picture for copper, nickel, cobalt, andmanganese, and security. i" might make the United States an-exporter rather than an The implications of the strategy are immense% First, importer of these materials. Deep-sea mining might have it would involve the cut-off of the United States from benefits out - weighing its economic costs, and therefore its export markets and from efficient and cheap imports. justifysecurity premium or Subsidy-to speed its de- Thiscwould reduce the productivity of the United States velopment. Similarly,*if research could yield a substitute economy and move-the economy toward aprolonged for cobalt, based upon a more abundant material, the period of slow growth or stagnalkh. Second, it would. /security premium involved in cobalt could justify our isolate the United States pOliticalli from its allies and investment in the technology required to produce the crejate very serious problems in national defense2Third, substitute. t . it would isolate the United. States from the emerging We policy isAis raised by these alternatives are to Third World and ultilately exacerbate serious031itical a great extent specific, to a givencot Vity, and must ansecurity problems. This is not the place to fully detail be considered on a cise_ by case bs Much. of the the implications of self-sufficiency and,the reemergence analysis which ,has been donein -the.critical materials of autarchy in the world, but it is clear that the severity aredindicates that an effective and carefully drawn stook-' Resource Depletion521 pile proposal is, in many cases, the cost- efficient insur- of the exploration process are not known. There is much ance against supply interruptions. Other of the above to be learned about ways in which changes in certain policies, however, may be the cost-efficient approach in institutional structures, such as nationalized firms, coun- some cases.It is clear that the incentives for private tries operating as entrepreneurs, and multinational multi- research and the development of new production strat- product private corporations, affe0 the flow of mineral egies and substitutes do not reflect society's costs in supplies. The same state of ignorance exists on. the de- . dependence upon foreign sources which can be inter- mand side of trade in resources. rupted for political purposes. Thus, there is a prima facie The major presidential commissions that have reported case that xesearch into developing the alternatives other . on materials problems, including the draft report of the than stockpiling indicated above should be properly un- recent presidential study, all have called for increased dertaken it the expense of the society as a whole rather attention to the data and analytical information available than the pnvate sector alone. to policymakers in both the government and the private This leads, then, to two recommendations concerning °sector. Ttie fourth recommendation -of this paper is the strategies for dealing with the issue of 'supply interrup- establishmellkof improved data and analytical capabili- tions. The first is that for the selected materials upon ties in the federal govemment, including substantial re- . which the United States is dependent on overseas search in the basic geological and social sciences directed sources, a strategy be established for each material to at the mineral and energy resources sectors. achieve protection from supply interruption in the most cost-efficient manner given the current state of technol- ogy in production and use. Second, additional support SUMMARY should be undertaken -for basic research in innovative 'technologies for continuing to produce existing materials The role of depletion in intemational security affairs and for creating new resource substitutes. This would flows primarily from the relative depletion of resources be long-term strategy for decreasing the cost of insurance in the United States, this depletion has meant substantial against supply interruption. change in comparative advantage for both the minerals and resources industries and for the primary industrial sectors thatkare based upon them. Along with geologic STRATEGIES FOR THE LOSS OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE endoWinent, this situation leads to a dependenceupon foreign sources for certain materials. Supply of these This issue raises policy questions which run well beyond materials is thus isubject to political interruption and to the availability of raw materials. It includes issues of a major problem in transition from previously efficient productivity, industrial management, tax policy, and industries to newly emerging growth sectors in the even the rate of savings in the U.S. economy. The fun- economy. damental attack on this issue must be in research and To deal with these issues in their resource and energy innovation to substlitially reduce the real costs of pro- context, four recommendations are made: ducing the primary minerals and the basic industrial produCts at home. This can be achieved by research (1) Establish, for each material upon which .the United aimed (1) at the production technologies themselves, and States is dtpendep on overseas sources, a strategy (;) at producing a substitute for the basic material and for achieving protection from supply interruption in manufacturing outputs at substantially loweredcosts.ks the -most cost-efficient manner, given the current It has been demonstrated that because of a basic market' state of technology in production and use .-- ' failure, research and development are not pursued at a (2) Undertake additional supportto for basic research in socially optimal level in the United States.'§ Thus, we new production technologies for these materials and need to expand the level of research and development in the development of substitutes for them, as a long- to attack the fundamental issue ofjhe overall productivity term strategy fo`r decreasing the cost of insurance of our industrial base. This is the thirchecommendatiow against supply interruption. til (3)Expand the level of basic research and development to Counteract the declining productivity of our in- THE NEED FOR BETTE? KNOWLEDGE dustrial base. We are fundamentally ignorant about the geological dep- (4) Improve the data and analytical system for materials oSition of mineral and energy deposits in the earth's and energy, as a guide to both the federal government crust. The determinants of the level and the efficiency and private industry: 522 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK REFERENCES 9.R.iyBrobst, "Fundamental Concepts for the Analysis of Re- source Availability,:' in Sntith.Scarcity and Growth Reconsidered. 1. W. Stanley Jevons,The Coal Question.2hd ed. (London:ac- 10. U.S. Federal Energy Administration, Office of Policy and Anal -" ,millan, 1866), preface; D Meadowset al, TheLimitsto Growth(New, ysis,Oil and Gas Resourcei, Reserves, and Productive Capacities York: Universe Books, 1972), introduction. (Washington D.C.:, 1974) 2. J.J. Shantz,Resource Terminology: An Examifation of Concepts 11.4.R.P. Sheldon. ,-Estimates of Undiscovered Petroleum Re- and Recommendations for Improvements(Palo Alto, California- Elec- sources: A Peespective,"U.S. Geological Su5i ,ey Annual Reportt tric Power Research Institute, 1Q754cy 'McKelvey, ':Mineral Resource (Washington, D.C.. U.S. Geological...Survey. 1975). pp 11-22. Estimates and Public policy,"United States Mineral Resources,Geo- 12. William A; Vogely. "Energy and Resources PlanningNational. logical Survey Professional Paper 820 (Washington, D.0 U S GeO- t. < . and Worldwide,"Air Pollution.3rd ed. (New York. Academic PiCS, logical Survey, 1972). 1977), pp. 293 -353.. , 3. H.J. Barnett and C.Morse,Scarcity and Growth(Baltimore: The 13. Sam H. Schurr, et al.,Energy in America's Future: The Choices Johns Hopkins University Press, 1963). Before Us(Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Upiversity Press, 1979), 4. V. Kerry Smith, ed.,Scarcity and Growth Riconsidired(Balti- Hans H. Landsberg and Kenneth J Arrow, et' al.,Energy The Next more: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979). Twenty -Years(Cambridge, Mass.. Pallinger Publishing Co 1979), 5. E.W. Zimmerman,Introduction to World Resources(New York: Ridker and Watson,To Choose a Future. riarper and Row, 1964). 14. Smith, "The Evaluation of Natural Resource Adequacy." 6. T. Page.Conservation and Economic Efficiency(Baltimore: The 15. National Strategy Information Systems, Inc.,A White Paper: Johns Hopkins University Press; 1977r, V. Kerry Smith, "The Eval- -The Resource War(Washington, D.C.: 1980) uanon of Natural Resource Adequacy. Elusive Quest or Frontier of 16 U.S. President. Domestic Council,Draft Report on the Issues Economic Analysis?"Land Economics,vol 56. no-.3 (August 1980), Identified in the N6nfuel Miderals Policy Review(Washington, D C.. pp 257-98 August 1979). 7. R.G. Ridker and W D. Watson,To Choose a Future(Baltimore 17. National Strategy Information Systems, Inc.,A White Paper. The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980). U.S. Energy R and D Potion,RFF Working Paper 8. M. King Hubbert, "Energy Resources," in National Academy 18. J.E. Tilton, En-4 (Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, 1974) of Sciences,Resources and Man(San Francisco: °W H. Freeman, 1969). 4 4; Jd a . ,fi 1` 0, 4 c 4 Science and Natiorial Defense: 11 #4* A Speculative Essay and Discussion Kenneth E. Bouldine *". INTRODUCTION reviews and the exciting oral discussion that we had extremely helpful. What I hoped that my original paper This is an unusual paper Which does not conform to the would do was not to solve the problems, but to start a general pattern of they papers in this series because it discussion and to raise questions. This I feel it did among deals with an almost unprecedented problem. Most of the discussants. Rather than prepare a new version of the the papers deal, quite legitimately, with research prior- paper, therefore, because the di'scussion itself is what ities within ,an existing, framework of ideas. They are the paper was intended to provoke, I am presenting a within the setting, that is, of what Thomas Kuhn calls somewhat shortened and revised version of the original "normal science." What I am'proposing is a basicpara- paper, in the light of some textual criticisms, without metric chinge in our whole view of the problem, that changing its essential content. Then I am presenting a isa scientific revolution. I am not asking myself what is the best thing to do within the existing framework; I summary of the discussion and my response to it. am asking, is the existing framework adequate, and.com- ing out with the answer that it is not. A profound change, in our whole way of thinking about national defense is SCIENCE AND,NATIONAL DEFENSE necessary. Another paper could easily be written along the lines of "normal science" within the existing frame- It is the business of the scientific community to erceive work. Someone else would have to be found to do it. and to transmit into human consciousness testable images This paper, like the others, was discussed among five, of the orderly patterns, f the real world. Itthe business colleagues at the AAAS workshop on ,"Science, Tech- of a science-based technology to utilize the perceptions nology, arid International Securitr: Dr. Wayne Bert, of science to transform the real World in directions which I Dr. Davis BobroW., Dr. Jolin Coleman, Dr. Richard are favorable to at least somebody's human valuations, Scribner, and Dr. LoriniStieff. I found both their written that is, directiOns which in some sense are "beii4" rather than "worse." The orderly patterns of the real Distingulshed Professor of Econonucs. Erbentus, Institute of Behavioral Selena. University world cover systems of a wide range of complexity and of Colorado. 'Boulder. Colorado. structure, from the relatively simple patterns of the phys- 523 L 524 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK ical world to the greatest, co mplexity of which we are deny. If we have made sacrifices for anything, our iden- aware, human beings and their societies. . tity becomes bdund up with the objects and the purposes National defense is primarily a subset of the social of those sacrifices andit becomes extremely hard for us system insofar as it is concerned with human beings and to admit that our sacrifices have been in vain. Unhappy with their technological artifacts. It also has relationships marriages sometimes last longer than happy marriages. With the biological and physical sciences. Certainly the The blood of the martyrs is the seed of the church; the development of chemical, biological and especially nu- blood. of the soldiers is the seed of the national state. clear,weapons has had a profound impaCt on it. Never- Sacrifices, and the demand for sacrifice, often tend to thdless, it remains essentially a part of the social system; grow until at some point they reach a discontinuity and it cannot be understood except in relation to social sys- the whole system collapses. The history of revolutions tems. The physical and biological sciences affect and reformations amply testifies to this. parameters of social systems but do not in themselves The persistence of threat systems in human history. explain them, in spite of the. fact that they probably have a very low Within the general pattern of the world social system, overall payoff in terms of human welfare, has a lot to national defense deals with certain aspects of the o do with the curious combination of Positive and negalive nization and interaction of national states. National payoffs which they involve..A threat system essentially fense is a subset of the "threat system." The threat begins With a statement on the part of the threatener to system,is part of the social system in which human be- the effect, "You'do something that I want, or I'll do ,havior is organized by threats rather than by exchange something that you don't want. '"The subsequent system or by integrative structures. Because society is an eco- deperids on the response of the threatened. There are at system, hoWever, all these things are related. National least four possible responses. The first response is sub- defense organizations, such as armed forces and be: mission, in which case the threat is not carried out, but partments of efense, operate in part within an exchange, the threatened party makes sacrifices and the threatener system in tha they buy and sell things. Their capacity presumably benefits. Secondly, there is defiance, in for survival als depends very much on the general struc- which the threatened party refuses to do what the threat- ture of legitima, which is an aspectof the "integrative ener wants. This moves the system back to the threatener, structure. No organization can surviveln-a-society if it who has To decide whether or not to carry out the - is widely perceived as illegitimate, especially by those threat. If he carries out the threat, both parties are injured. who participate in it. All national defense organizations Carrying out a threat involves costs on the part of the are financed by government appropriation's of money, threatener as well as damage to the threatened. If the which in turn are obtained through tax syitems or through threatener does not carry out his threat; his credibility the creation of money by,the state. These political struc- may be impaired, so there is again the cost to the\threat- tures, again, rest on what might be called legitimated ener. The decision obviously depends to some extent threat, which again tends to break down ifis not widely on the evaluation of these different costs when compared felt to be legitimate. to the probable value of the benefits derived froni the The dynamics of legitimacy are very co plex, yet are chance Of submission of the threatened party. also highly relevant to the problem national defense. A thirdpossible response to threat is flight; which has Logitimady seems to come from two quiteelifferent and been,very common in human history, from the Israelites contradictory sources, which explains, perhaps, why it in Egypt to refugees everywhere. A fourth response is, produces systems exhibiting great discontinaties. An- counterthreat, in which the threatened party responds by cient legitimacies which have persisted unchanged for saying, "If you do something nasty to me, I'll do some- a very long time sometimes collapse overnight. One im-/ thing nasty to you." If this results in neither threat being portant source of legitimacy is positive payoffs. Some- carried out, we have deterrence. Deterrence, however. thing which is perceived as clearly beneficial would tend is always subject to,breakdown. It pins stress on both to acquire and to retain legitimacy. The love of country, parties and tends to produce escalation of threat. An arms like the love of spouse, is certainly not unrelated to our race, in which each party in the attempt to stabilize perception of net benefits received from the association. deterrence increases his threat capability, is an example. Institutions that are perceived as no longer paying off This then creates a corresponding threat increase on the and as yielding small or negative benefits are apt to lose part of others that may or may not reach some sort of legitimacy, as absolute monarchy 'did in the eighteenth . equilibrium. Usually it does not, and systems of deter- century and empire did in the twentieth century. rence, while they are frequently stable in the short run, This, hotvever, is not enough to explain the complex are rarely, if ever,.stable in the long run. Indeed, we can dynamics of legitimacy. We also have a strange phe- _argue that deterrence cannot be stable in the long run, nomenon that I call the "sacrifice trap." Negative pay- for if it were stable it would cease to deter. Offs also produce legitimacy, simply becaiise suffering The institutions of national defense are the result of creates a sense of identity that is extremelypainflir to a long evolution of threat systems that is still continuing. 142 National Defense525 In the nEblithic, threat systems seemed to diminish in of technology had been reached. In earlier 'time*, this importance as opportunities for agricultural expansion played an important role in developing the Roman Em- increased. The rise of cities, however, in early civili- pire, though land transport by Roman toads also helped.- zation, some 3000 B.C., or a little earlier, was clearly The Spanish, Portuguese, later the British, Erench and related to the developmefit of organized threat systems Dutch empires, were temporary products of this sea- in the shape of armies and of tax-gatheringbureaucracies power technology. Mahan' pointed out that the American headed by kings, although the earliest cities seem to have Revolution probably was successful because, for a bnef . been theocracies, and were organized perhaps by the period, the British lost command of the seas .to the spiritual threats of a priesthood. French. cA fundamental principle of threat systems is t the Organized science played rather a minor role in thi; size of both the area and the population that be 'development, which mainly was due to improvements organized into a single system by threat is a fufictiop of in what might be called "folk technology," especially the range of the instruments of threat, particularly, of in seafaring. However, science did play' an important course, of weapons. Obviously these- are by no means role in the improvement of maps and charts, andIDthe the only instruments. Ancient empires depended in con- development of the skilE of navigation, as it had done siddable measure on the development of mobile armies, many centuries earlier in the observations of latitude, like those of Assyria or of Alexander, which were indeed and in the eighteenth century in the solution of the prob- the first "guided missiles." A cntical factor here is what lem of longitude. Even the development of steam engines I have elsewhere called the "loss of strength gradient."' and railroads does not owe y,ely much to organized .sci- The pnnciple is that the farther one is from home, the ence. As, has been said, therniodynamics owed a great less influence one can exert. This principle expresses deal to the steam engine, but the steam engine owed very itself in the exchange system in terms of the cost of little to thermodynamics. The great exprosidn of science-," transporting goods and in the threat system in terms of based technology began about 1860 .with the develop- the cost of transporting "bads." The diminution of this ment of the chemical and electrical luclustnes, scientific ,gradient, through a fall in the unit cost of transport, metallurgy and agriculture. In the.twentieth century, it permits the development of larger organizations. continued with the nuclear indtfstry. Another factor in the situation is the relationship' be- This upsurge of science-based technology had an tween the development of instruments of threat, that is, enormous impact on the 1pchnology of weaponr3,,es- capability of doing harm, and instruments of protection, pecially on the range and destructiveness of weapons and which would prevent harm being done Spears, arrows, their divorce from human° operations. This has had a guns, and.nucleai missiles are instruments of threat. profound though confusing effect on the Structure of Shields, armor, walls, and bomb shelters are instruments national defense. In an' age when, for the first time in of protection, which diminish the effects of the instru- human history a unified world state has become tech- ments of threat Throughout human history there seems nologically feasible, we have seen the collapse of em- to be a constant seesaw between these two groups of pires and a great proliferation of independent national instruments. The rise of technological instruments of states, the number of which hasalmosttrebled in the last threat expands the area 9f threat-based organizations, a 30 years. Nuclear-deterrence has been stable now since rise in the capacity of instruments of protection can di- Hiroshima and Nagasaki,'for,there,have been no further minish it. As armies produced empires, walls produced explosions (in war) of nuclear weapons. Buf,there is an city-states and feudal barons. Both instruments of threat overwhelming fear that this stability may not last, and and instruments of protection, however, are costly to the that we are indeed sliding at an accelerating pace down users, and their relative costs are very important. a slippery slope towards a potentially irretrievable nu- One of the curious consequences of the rise of science clear catastrophe. seems to be that it has accelerated the development of The brutal truth is-that a science-based technology has instruments of threat more than the development of in- made the unilateral national defense of the national state struments of protection. We see evidence of this even ultimately ,a non-viable system. As long as the nuerear in what might be called the eoscientific era of the late weapons exist, the probability of their being used is not Middle Ages with the development of gunpowder, which zero. No matter how low the probability '6'.,ay event, improved the range of instruments of threat so consid- if we wait'long enough, it will cop e off. My own highly erably that the feudal castle was no Jonger a fliable de- subjective estimate is that over the last 30 years or so fense system. The feudal system collapsed and was re- the probability of nuclear war has been of the'same order placed by the much larger national state, the boundaries of magnitude as that of a.100-year ,flood, about one of which could be defended, at least in the short run, by percent or less per annum. I suspect,that it rose to some- mobile armies. The European empires from the fifteenth thing like 20 percent in the Cuban Cri;is anclIs edging century on were largely a result of the extraordinary upwards to two, three, fonr, may five percent per cheapness of sea transport, available once a certain level annum today. These, of course are subjective evalua- 4 526 HAAS POLICY OUTLOOK , tions, unfortunately incapable of 'being tested directly seem tohave'any illusions about its feasibility: The ci- and, therefore, not strictly scientific, But a lot of things vilian populations of the developed world are hostages that are not scientific may .tum out to be true. to their departments of defense. They are not really de- All this evidence suggests that we are in a very strangerfended by them. This is a condition for which the sci- situation, and that We are moving toward highly unfa- entific community bears an inescapable 'responsibility miliar regions of the system. The collapse of the old because it has assistef in the production of the technology empires, the powerlessness of the superpowers, and the which has created it. < many signs of the widespread erosion of the legitimacy Does, then,, the scientific community have resources of warAA system, indicate that we may be approaching within it which can answer the accusation that it has a moment of profound evolutionary change. Theim- contributed to the probability of destruction of the human potence of the superpowers was certainly seen in the race as well as to its bettermetitrThe answer to that , case of the United States in yietnam, and in the constant question is perhaps a somewhat hesitant :` yes." In the frustrations of the,Soviet finihn in its attempts to operate first place, the scientific community is a product of a' in various parts of the world, such as in Egypt and now very'remarkable ethos, the origins of which are some- in Poland. It will be surprising if the SovietUni6n does what obscure, which attaches great value to the principle not find itself confronted with the same kindof bleeding that people should be persuaded by evidence and not by abscess'in Afghanistan that the United States found itself threat. This renunciation of threat by the scientific com- with in Vietnam. In Cuba, Angola, and' Ethiopia, the munity was a very important element in its remarkable Russians find themselves with never-ending costs of sup- success at expanding human knowledge. The principle , orti which it is very difficult to see that they that the real world should speak for itself through testing rece.the slightest benefit. As the British, the French, and through the evidence presented by tests was some- and the Dutch found, being an imperial power does not thing new in the experience of the human race. All pre- pay. These countries have all done much better econom- vious societies relied 'upoq threat fo insure conformity ically since .they shucked off their empires, It is also of belief and practice. It is surprising how little under likely that being a superpower does not p4, though it standing there is of this basic prihciple even within the is taking is some time to disCover this. . scientific community, for it is practiced widely, although All this philosophy is reflected in tilt continual erosion with occasional exceptions at the personal level. Igor of what might be called the militalrethic and culture.s example, in graduate schools, the unusuallyimaginative This is reflected, for instance,in war songs. The First and creatiVe graduate student wha disagrees with. the World War produced a fine crop, the Second World War views of his professorS may find himself subject Co a produced none, and the Vietnam War produced nothing, threat syitern when it comes to his final examinations. " but.anti-war songs. The traditiol of military sacrifice, This, however, is an exceptiOn, and on the whole; .the which goes back a very long way in human history, renunciation of threat, particularly among peers, ig per- could be on the point of collapse. When 'the ,sacrifice haps file basic ethical commitment of the scientific com- involves hundreds of Olions ofcivilians, and the mil- munity. If a 'scientist cannot perSuade his peers of the ° itary activity consists of/pressing a button in a safe shel- truth of his views by the evidence presented, he has no 'ter, the'end victory does not seem worthwhile. other recburse. 6%. ..The,19ss Of an old legitifnacy, however, clip be very It is to my mind a gross violation of the scientific ethic . dangerous if it is not replacedtby another, and ai the to do what the Soyiet'Uniorr did in its relations with moment, certainly neither war nor peace'seem to be China after 1960 and what the United Stares is now doing legitimate. If the, 1980 election as any indication, the' in regard to its relations with the SdViei Union. Both American people still seem to believe that a militAry countries are using science as part of theipolifical threat defense will give them security, in spite of a great deal system by withdrawing scientific contapts and commu- of evidence to the contrary. The scientific community nication. It is .to the great credit of *th6 Soviet scientific has a responsibility in this matter because it hasplayed community that it produced a Salcharipv. It is no credit a highly significant role in creating the technical change at all to the American scientific community thatit does; in weaponry which has destroyed uncongitional vi- not seem to have produced one. Nevertheless, the sci- ,ability even of the largest national state,justas much entific community hap large reserve of Wile might be as gunpowder destroyed the vicability of thefetiefal baron. called the "moral resource." In vie:1M systems this re- Neither deterrence.nor bomb shelters cav save us in the source is just as important and jus real asnatural; . long run. The technology of protection is fundamentally resources. . helpless in the face of the technology of destruction. A The scientific community, ,however, has more than .society living in bomb shelter's is ,not worth living in, this. In the last 30 years or sothere, has developed a quite apart from the difficulty it would have in raging considerable literature and something that could properly be called a discipline in a field which is so newthat even ,its food supply! Present-day technology offers no solp- tion to'the problem of civil defense, and only the Chinese its Ame.has not been firmly established. I like to call -rr Nah.nal Defense527 it "conflict studies." The French call it "polemologie." systems of the past and the way they< ye been managed. It has gotten to the point where at least 80 collegesoffer.There is need for a much better information system to something like an interdisciplinary program in it for un- assess the consequences of threats, nd even the descrip- dergraduates. Conflict Studies is still very precariously tion of them. established at the graduate level, though there are a num- One of the great probledis witthe threat system is ber of institutions around the -Ty5Id that do offer a srad- thatits information processes d feedbacks are ex- uate program in it. In its applied form it sometimes goes tremely poor even in comparisoto the processes and by the name of peace research or peace science, but in feedbacks of the exchange syste. In exchange we usu- its more pure form it transcends the political and ethical ally know fairly well what the exchange opportunities distinction between hawks and doves. In its applied form are which are open to us, thous nds of pnces are quoted it goes well beyond the problem of international conflict daily in the press. The conse uences of exchangeare and rhakes contributiOns indeed to such things as 'arbi- \always somewhat uncertain,nd exchange not infre- tration, conciliation, and mediation in commercial and quently results in disappoint Is, from which; how- labor disputes and community conflict. The existence of ever, we often learn rather rapt .).y. Once we have bought the discipline is at least partially acknowledged in the one lemon, we tend not to b y at least the same one congressional commission set up in 1980 to study' the again. In threat _systems, howiever, the actual nature of iformation of a National Academy of Peace and Conflict the threats which are made a e extremely uncertain and Resolution. If such an academy comes into being, it will, the consequences of, making hem are even less certain. of course, be a public recognition of the existence of the Threat may convey one im ge to the threatener and a new discipline. completely different image o the thre'atened, of which Tfle new discipline comes out of all the older' social.the threatener is not aware. Under these circumstances, sciences. Historically, it owes a great deal to the work it is not surprising that thre t systems exhibit such strik2 of political scientist and histonan Quincy Wright and to ing pathologies and cause enormous amount of human meteorologist Lewis F.Richardson.' The discipline misery. An improved infoanon system with regard to which it perhaps most closely resembles is, economics, threats is surely possible,yen though it is by no means for just as economics abstracts from the complexity of easy. Just as we- have substantially improved the infor- social life the phenomenon of exchange and related top- mation system in econoics over the last 50 years, with ics and inquires how exchange organizes society, conflict the development of natial income statistics and indices, studies abstracts- the phenomenon of conflict, which of various kinds, we ca, init5rove the information system again is virtua,lly universal in all social relationships, and in threat study. studies how this organizes society. Just as economics The'study of weapo s systems and their development has had an important effect on public policynot all of has grossly neglected t e place of weapons in the general iftecessarily benignover the last 200 years, from free .threat system. The sdy has also overlooked the fact trade to fiscal and monetary policy, so conflict studies that a, weapon is not merely a physical system but that might be expected to hal* substantial effect on the way it is also part pf the social system. In physical terms, we . conflict is conducted in order to lower the costs of con- have overkill in tablknives. We certainly have enough flict to all parties. Conflict processes are strongly sus- table knives to killverybody in the world if they fitted ceptible to what might be called "perverse dynamics," into a social systewhich demanded it, but a tableknife that is, processes in which rational decisions on the part only becomes a w apon on very rare occasions. It is at of each party in fact make,each party worse off. The least a plausible pothesis that we have now gotten to famous thedreticahreatment of this is the "prisoner's the point where e ery improvement in weaponry lessens dilemma" of game theory, which has received a great 'our security and lowers our chance for survival. How deal of study in recent years. To those who are familiar to test this hypot esis without waiting for our destruction° with it, the theOry Can hardly help but make a difference is a difficult question. However, it is npt an unworthy in the way they behave in conflict situations. question for sci ntists to ask. Looking now. at possible contributions over the next As we lodkt pOssible,futures, some scenarios offer five years, perhips the most optimistic spendlio of the hope. One is t e development of geneial and complete present conflict environment would be like that with the disarmament- rough a world state. This might come Soviet Union in the Cuban crisis, in which we will movo about eithery a strengthening of the United Nations, towards the cliff of nuqear war anA then turn back from which seem improbable at 'the moment, or by what it. This should arouse interest in the scientific study of seems evenore improbable the conquest of the world conflict systems, but more particularly, it should arouse by a single country. Neither of these possibilities seems interest on the applied side in the study of the manage- very ho... ul. There is; however, another alternative, ment of threat systems, which is somethingfthat.has been which isss drastic but more realistic the development greatly neglected, even in conflict studies. First, there of expa ding regions of stable peace. Stable peace is a is a great reed for careful historical -analysis of threat pheno enon which was -virtually unknown beforn, the r 145 528 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK A nineteenth century. After 1815, however, it developed tential alternative. A Progratrn'of research along these I in Scandinavia, and after perhaps 1870, it developed in:lines, therefore, is by no means utopian. It would involve North America. I think we can say it has now expanded thefiretical, experimental, and historical research. A to incrude Western Europe andJapan. We could almost great deal needs to be done on the the of threat sys- think of a broad triangle of the globe with apices at tems. Something could be done through experimental Japan, Australia, and Sweden that is in the phase of social psychology.I confess I am personally a little stable peace. This, phase of the international system in- skeptical about the payoffs there, but .it,would be worth volves first taking national frontiers off all agendas, ex- -trying. Principally, I would argue that the empirical re-j cept for mutually agreed adjustments. This leads to dis- search here has ,to be historical.. A large-scale study of armed frontiers and national images which are consistent the history of threat systems,with the testing of a group with each other. The probability of war4between the of theoretical hypotheses id mind, would, it seems to constituent nations then becomes -so small that it really me, pak off very substantially. If indeed the'National does not enter into anybody's calculations. Stable peace Academy of Peace and Conflict Resolution is estab- is not the same as an alliance. Indeed, alliances against .fished,I would sugges'e that thiso should be its major a comfnon enemy do not produce' stable peace, for boll priOrity. alliances and enmities shift. The allies of today become the enemies of tomorrow. This is not to deny that a common threat somewherein .the background may be SUMMARY OF THE DISCUSSION a factor moving a group of nations into stable peace,but it is never the dominant factor. Even though we did not use the term "scientific revo- The potentiality for stable peace unquestionably comes lution," all the discussants agreed that what I am pro- out of the extraordinary increase in productivitythat has posing is 'a very basic change in the parameters of the resulted from science-based technologyj technology system of national defense. They agreed it was legitimate has inormdusly dirnishe;Li the comparative dvantage .,.to raise this question and that thehypothesis was at least of ththree( system-is a source of wealth when ornpared plausible that such a parametric change was in order,, in to prOductiyity:and exchange. In a technologi114stag-. view of my contention that technological change, par- ,nant s 3( likothe koman'Empire, the econoicAains ticularly the enormous increase in the range and destruc- of the tti eat system throukik cont)ueistand pinr.may tivenesstof the guided missile, had made conventional have seemed attractive iareabse of any tech-og, ° 'unilateral national defenseunworkable in the long run. ical development9In the last 150,or 2010,yesliVhowever,,° The discussants also felt, however, and I agreed with it has beCome very clear thit with theeffortarilike,cost- :.. them, that I.h4not dealt with the shorter-run problems, required to extract one dollar from an exploited hu %. particularly with the problem of transition fromthe ex- being through the threat systemapne could extract $ $tting syst.,..91.into one that was ultimately more viable. out of nature. The rise of the rich countries to wealthti, Dr. Wayne Bert wade the instance, that people the. last 150 years has not primarily been the result of :in4positions of political power in almost all nations do, exploiting the poor, but of thepreviously'poor increasing, , in fkt, feefthreatened by the:unilreral national defense their own producti$ity. Without this, it may well be that establishments. In other words, They fears the armed the conditions fol- stable peace Might not have beene;1 foces. and 'the political apparatus for dediting to use veloped.(*ever, just because the underlying co di- them,Which exist in other countries. The only response tionsexit s not necessarilymeaethat the in ema- they can think of to this threat is to set up a unilateral tional system itself will move toward"stable peace. This national Aefensesorganization of their own, perhaps as requires eithet. a set of lucky accidents, which I thinkc''''13/4tounterthreat. Nobody actually brought up the old was the case in North America, or perhapsin the future,.' Roman slogan, "Sivis pacem pare helium." (if you a conscious and deliberate policy directedtoward pro- wish for peace, prepare or war.) But it is,clear that much of the motivation whiccreates unilateral national de- du.cing it.,. --, The question as to whether a research programcould fense organizations and which persuades scientists and be set up in this area obviously dependsn whether._ many.people of good will to go into them and support people perceive this phenolnenon as beloh ng to the them..is An ineradicable fear that their nation or society real world or whIther they think that a ton nuation- of will be invaded, humiliated, or even destroyed by the , the present system of unstable peace. is inevitable and unilateral national organiZations'of others, unless they unchangeable. Itis difficult indeed for. people to ac- have one of -their own large enough to operate as a knowledge. that A institution like unilateral national de-. k counterthreat. 1" fense, which is so ancient and so well established, is inIlkTfie historical fact that preparing "for war has very' fact coming to an end because of technical change. Even rarely, if ever, insured peace-r-Sweden in the last 300 if the, bulk of the scientific community is not willing to "years is about the only example that I can think of that acknowledge hi, there still may be support for a pos is even plausibleeither fails to rise into consciousness, 1 46' II National Defense529 0 . or the fact that the price of unilateral national -defense had some hand in originating, but, whichwas not men-- is 'occasional war is simply accepted asa cost which is tioned in the paper. This deals with thevarious "phase worth the benefits derived from continued nationaler descriptions" of the international system and thecir- istence and integrity. Before the ,developmentothe cumstances which move the system from one phase into long-range nuclear missile,, indeed, the above position another. In two previous works' I outline four possible was a very -platisible interpretation of the condition of phases of the international system.. The first is "stable the world. This is not the first time in hurnap history, war," 'which actually is not too common in human his- however, that technical change has made a previousso- tory but is by no Means unkno(Nn. The second is 'un- cial orientation unviable. As I mentioned earlier in this stable .war," in which war is regarded as thenorm but paper, the impact of efficient cannon on the feudal system is interrupted by, periods of peace, brought about by is a case in point. The scientific revolution and science,_..treaties, royal marriages, and the like. As the intervals based technology destroyed both the economic and the of peace become longer, this phase passes, oftenim- political viability of slavery,.altho 14,u...it/Dole i long time perceptibly with no very clear boundary, intoa third to get the slave societies to recognize this. However, the phase of "unstable peace," in which peace is regarded question raisedby Dr. Bert is a crucial one. It would as the norm but is interrupted by periods of war.411e r involve a program of research in the field of'transfor- ostensible object of this phase is to restorepeace, of mation of human images of fact and value under pressure course on terms favorable to the victor. And then, as I from the "real world," ihich at the momentwe are argue in the paper, since 1815 at least in some areas this poorly equipped to perform, but Which is by no means has passed over into areas of "stable'peace,in which beyond the capacity of the social science community. the probability of war is extremely low, even between Dr. Davis Bobrbw raised some extremely penetratingaindependent states. , questions, which 'also came-up in the discussiotf, as to Dr. Bobrow argues that in any appraisal of research how the future of national defense related to the other and development, particularly technological develop- topics of the symposium, particularly to the problems ment,'in.weaponry, (or instance ,the question of whether of population, resource exhaustion, and distribution of the change may shift the system from one phase to a world development that were treated in other papers. more adverse phase should constantly be raised. i would ') There is a very important field of inquiry here. If we go even further and suggest that in a sense these phases think of the international system as a system of "stress are related to the stress-strength model.. In stable war the -and strength," we can,compare it to a complex network strength of the system is *virtually zero, any stress,results of rods, that occasionally "break" into war.If the' in war. As we move from unstable war into unstable strength 9f the system is greater than the stress on-it, the peace, the strength ortli( system, relative to the stress, rods do not break and there is peace. When the stress increases. As we. move into stablepeace, the strength is greater than the strength, the rods break and there is of the system becomes so great that the Stress neverrises war The term "national strength" is often hetually.a to the point where the system breaks. The research prob, factor in the stress that is placed on the system' rather lem here actually has curious parallels to the problems than a strength of it. An increase in national strength involved in non-dejstructive testing. A system breakis ' often increases the stress on the system' 'destructive testing of the relative- stress and strength of i Then1buestion arises, what doother large dynamic the system. When the system is broken, we know that . systems of population, resource exhaustion, economic the stress is greater than the strength. Any increase in development, and so on, do to the real strength of the ,non-destructive testing would presumably create feed- world defense systems, oeto the stresses on thein? Will back systems which would lessen the possibility oT de- differential population growth, increasing poverty, and structivetesting. The information and measurement exhaustion of resources increase the stress? Do nitilti- problems here are very severe, but this should be a chal- national corporations increase the strength of the system lenge to the scientific community to vidkously pasne in the sense that they are profoundly interested in the the enterprise rather than to abandon it. w. maintenance of peace? Nags like cultural exchange, Dr. Bobrow raises the very important short -run ques- scientillc cooperation, and ien tourism, may igilit ase tionof whether the developrhent of first- sake capability the strengthdf the system. The measurement problems in either the United States or the Soviet Union, or bbth, here are extremely difficult. Nevertheless, the concepts lessens the strength of the system, makes catastrophic are fairly clear, and one could certainly visualize a re- war More probable, diminishes our security, and moves search program directed toward the impact of all the us from the not-too-unstable peace- that we now have various facets of social dynamics on the overall strength into a much less stable peace. This question should cer- and strain .of the international system. This has rarely,' tainly be an objective of any research into weapons ap- if ever, been done. - praisal. He also raises.the question pf the relationship Dr. Bobrow also suggested that useful work 'could be between the ability .to fight a conventional war and the done with regard to a conceptual frarpework, which I probability of nuclear war. This also would seem to be aa , . . t. . 530 AAAS POLICY OUTLOOK a very. legitimate subject of short-run research,though demands for research and development are largely gov- I am not sure myself what the outcome would be. Cer- erned by this. In reply, I would argue that) think any tainly our inability to fight a revolutionary guerrilla-type short -run program must be made in t4ie light of long-run war in Vietnam only slightly increased theprobability probabilities, and that if then probabilities rise to a cer- of nuclear war with the Soviet Union. Furthermore, there tainty of total catastrophe, there is no point in short-run is a very general.delegitimationgpf what might be called optimization. This indeed would be "sub-optimization," "colonial war" that makes it extremely difficult to pur- that is, finding the best 'way of doing something that - sue onto any politically successfulconclusion,t1though should not be done at all. "Sub-optimization" is one of it,may take a few more examples betiorepeople are per- the major sources of bad decisions in any field of human suaded of this An ability on the part of the United States _ to invade and conquer Iran would almost certainly in- Dr. Stieff also made some excellent textual points, crease the probability of nuclear war with the Soviet some of which I have tried to incorporate. He felt that Union. This- should certainly be a subject of Viearch. the. whole point of view was too unfamiliar to most Dr. Bobrow's essential point, as I under§tand it, is people to be readily understcrod. He also felt the need that we cannot answer the question of how we get world- for expanding many of the ideas in the paper, particularly wide stablg-peace immediately, but what we ca \ do is- the concept of the threat system and of the instability of ask ourselves what changes in scientific knowledge deterrence. His criticism would suggest the need for a technology, and even In weapons technology, will nave substantial research project on threat systems in both the system toward increasing the probability of peace international and domestic society, and I would certaiity and diminishing`that of war. This seems to be a very endorse the need for this. sound point ofview-, even in the short run. Dr. Scribner shared many of Dr. Stieff's concerns, Dr, Bobrow also suggested 'that a p.aper of a very and raised the question of whether any assessment of different kind could be written that would stay within new weapons should be done by an integrated group, the existing "normal science" framework in treating 'which would include social scientists as well as physical national defenie. It might be that th,is could be done:but scientists and engineers, to look at the *pact on the I could not do it. total wt rldq'ocial system. lie:elso was concerned about Another important point which Dr. Bobrow makes is how to translate these rather Unfamiliar ideas into lan- the necessity for studying the decision - making processes guage that would be comprehensible to a wider audience. of national states with regard to unilateral national de- He was struck with the need fof the study of the legiti- fense. I' agree very strongly with this in spite of the mation of threat systems. difficulties that are involved. He also makes the ex- One problem that did not come up in the discussion' tremely interesting point that, whereas the-timehorizon was that of'theieconomic impact of the "war indpstry." on technical' innovations, particularly in the defense A good' deal of work has been done on this subject over field, is apt to be from 20 to 60 years, our time. horizon the past 25 years, and there is fairly btoad consensus in social, econoihic, and politicalpredictiont is very . that this is by no means an insoluble problem. The much less than this. He suggests fromto 8 years American especially is remarkably flexible; even 8 years, seems optimistic to me. Unfortunately, I there is ndno sense-in which a large war industry is nec- see no..answer to this problem. Social s sts are quite essary to produce full employment. Iii 1945-1946 we inherently -unpredictable because of W7act that deci- shifted about 30 percent of the economy from the war sions are very frequently affected by quite random fac- industry ,into civilian production, without unemployment tors. They are also unpredictable because of our inherent rising above 3 percent. In the early 1960s a fairly sharp Inability to predict the future of knowledge, or even of reduction in the war industry (from about 9 percent to technology. If we Could predict it, we' would hive dis- 7 percent of the Gross National Product [GNP]) was covered it by ,now. Information has to be surprising or accompanied by an appreciable reduction 41 Ilknemploy- it is not information. In social systems, information dom- ment. In fact, the war industry -which has averaged inates the whole system and is merely modified by me- about 7 percent of GNP in the past 25 .yearshas been chanical regularities. These considerations would sug- a severe cufflklative dfain on the Americah economy, gest, however, that research and development in national even greater in qualitatp/e terms than thespercent would defense are,quite inherently pathological; that they.can- suggest because of its high technology. The loss repre- not contribute to our security and must diminishit, If sents an internal lnain-ilrain that probably accounts for this is so, the'urgency of findingsubstitute becohies a significant part of the relatively poor growthPerform- all the greater, ance of the American economy during this period. Dr. Colem'an made some useful specific points which A more difficult problem, which- also did -not come I have incorporated in the revision of the original paper. up, is the threat to the military subculture itself that the He 'again emphasizes the point that theDepartment of crisis in unilateral national defense implies. This threat Defense operates essentially in the short run and that its is somewhat parallel to the crisis in religidus subcultures 1; '1 A National Defense531 that the rise of science created. Such threats are under- tunate, for such a defense easily becomes pathological, standably sharply resisted, and creative adaptation to as the psychological term "defense mechanisms" sug- them is the key to survival. Thepotehtiality for the trans- gests. Nevertheless, defense in this sense is an entirely formation of military subcultures, such as is suggested, legitimate, and indeed a most important, problemin all for instance, in Michael Harbottle's remarkable study of areas of human life and interaction. The direction of the tIte,,United Nations' forces in Cyprus, The Impartial Sol- social sciences toward this kind of defense would bea dier, is skorthy of much serious study.' most valuable widening of their agendas. In a larger context, national "defense" most beseen If indeed one dominant conclusion emerges from this as part of a segment of the total world dynamic system discussion, it is-that the agendas in the study of defense which is concerned with the prevention of unwanted must be widened, and that the scientific isolation of the chinge. The social sciences in their normative mode national defense establishment must be broken down. have concentrated so much on the achievement of wanted Otherwise, Nie are likely to continue to slides downa change that they have almost totally neglected the prob- slippery slope toward the cliff of irretrievable disaster lem of defense against unwanted change. This is unfor- . in major nuclear war. R8FERENCES 3 Quincy Wnght, A Study of War, 2 vols. (Chicago University of Chicago Press, 1942), and Lewis F Richardson, Arms and Insecurity (Chicago. Quadrangle Books, 1960) 1, Kenneth E Bdulding, Conflict and Defense (New York Her, 4. Kenneth E Boulding, Conflict and Defense (4w York. Harper, 1962) . 1962); and Stable Peace (Austin. University of Texas Press. 1978) 2 Alfred Thayer Mahan, The Major Operations of the Navies in the 1'5. Michael Harbottle, The Impartial Soldier (London.Oxford Uni- War of Americarandependence (1913, repnnted 1969). versity Press, 1970). G Ire 0 I to/ 4 ft f 9 Advisory Committee The Honorable Ray thornton Callaway Professor of the His- (chairman)! ,tor)' of Technology President Arkansas State UnArsity Georgia Institute of Technology . Jonesboro, Arkansas Atlanta, Georgia Dr. R. Darryl Banks Dr. Patricia McFate 'Executive Assistant Deputy Chairman OfficeofResearchand National Endowment for the ,ReveloptrEnt Humanities U.S. Enviroriental Protection st Washington, DC Agency' Mr. Rodney W. Nichols Washington, DC Executive Vice President . Dr. William A. Blanpied The Rockefeller University , Director are. \ New York, New York Office of Special Projects . Dr. Pauline Newman National 'Science .Foundation Director Washington, DC Patent and Licensing Department Dr. Kenneth E. Boulaing FMC corporation Distinguished Professor of Eco- Philadelphia, Pennsylvania nomics, Emeritus Dr. John F. §herman . Institute of Behavioral Science Vice President University of Colorado Association of American Med- 1- Boulder, COInfaddg ical Collegesj Dr. 'Stothe P.Kezios Washington, DC ' Chairman Dr. Albert H. Teich Department of Mechanical (project director) Engineering Manager, Science Policy Studies Georgia Institute of Technology AmeriCan Association for the Atlanta; Georgia Advancement of Science Dr. Melvin ICranzberg Washington, DC 4 (ot officio)2 laimmum, AAAS Cony/mute on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, January195t -. 2Ctuurman, AAAS Committee on Science. Engineering and Public Policy,'nutty 197t- January 1981 .0 151 535 . a *. a WorkshopParticipants WORKSHOP I: SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND John Coleman INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Senior Consultant Five Year Outlook Project Wayne Bert National Academy of Sciences International Security Affairs 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Department of Defense 4. Washington, DC 20418 The Pentagon Washington, DC 20301 Ramon B. Daubon Population and Development Davis Bobrow 4Policy Program Professor Battelle Memorial Institute Department of Government and . 2030'M St., NW Politics Washington, DC 20036 University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 Charles S. Dennison Kenneth E. Boulding Executive Director Distiaguished Prbfesior of Eco- Council on Science and Tech- nomics, Emeritus ," nology for Development Institute of Behavio Science 2010 Massachuset2 Ave., NW University of'Colo do Washington, DC N036 Boulder, CO 803 Stanislatis J. Dundon William.C. Burrows Congressional Science and En- Agronomist gineering Fellow John Deere and Company Tech - Amtrican Philosophical nical. Center Association Moline, IL 61265 Office of Representative George Brown Ronald M. Canon U.S. House of Representatives Chemical Technology Division Washington, DC 20515 Oai Ridge National Laboratory P.O. Bo* X Oak Ridge, TN 37830 537 0 538ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Tomas Frejka Ginger Payne (Staff)* Senior Researcher Office of Pilblic Sector Programs Population Council American Association for the One Dm Hiumnerskjold Plaza Advancement of Science 883 Second Ave. 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW New York, IVY 10017 Washington, DC 200367, James Henderson Ricliard Scribner Chairman science and Policy Programs Division of Natural Sciences Manager Carver Research Laboratories American Association fof the Tuskegee Institute Advancement of $cie Tuskegee, AL 36088 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 Christopher T. Hill Eugene B. Skolnikoff Senior Research Associate Director Center for Policy Alternatives Massachusetts Institute of Center for International Studies Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technblogy Cambridge, MA 02139 Cambridge, MA 02142 Vidi Killian (Staff) Lorin R. Stieff Consultant President 5 Cleveland Ave. Stieff Research and Takoma Park, MD 20012 Development Alan Learner P.O. Box 263 Five Year Outlook Program Kensington, MD 20795 Manager Conrad Taeuber Office of Special Projects Associate Director National Science Foundation Center for Population Research Washington, DC 20550 Georgetown University Barbara Lucas Washington, DC 201)57 Policy Analyst Albert H. Teich (Project Division of Policy Research and Director) Analysis Manager, Science Policy Studies ,National Science Foundation American Association for the Washington, DC 20550 Advancement of Science 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW Melinda Meade Washington, DC 20036 Associate Professor Department of Geography Michael Teitelbaum eniversity If North Carolina ( Program Officer. Chapel IMIPNC 27514 Population Office The Ford Foundation William Mills 320 E. 43rd St. Senior Staff Member Office of Technology New York, NY 10017 Assessment Ray Thornton (Chairman) U.S. Congress President Washington, DC 20510 Arkansas State University State UniversitypAR 72467 Kathleen Newland 4 Senior Researcher Irene Tinker Woildwatch Instituk . Director 4, 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW Equity Policy Center Washington, DC 20036 1302 lath St., NW Washington, DC 20036 Pets Orarn' rkputy Director William Vogely International Food Policy Re- Professor Mineral search Institute Departmentof 1'776 Massachusetts Ave., NW ' Economics Washington, DC 20036 Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA 16802. Jill Pace (Staff) Officeof Public Sector Programs Charles Weiss American Assogiation for the Science and Technology Advisor Advancement of Science World Ban. 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW . 70'1 19tliTi:,.NW Washington, DC 20036 Washington, DC 20433 7' 1 5 3 0 Workshop Participants539 Sylvan Wittwer Richard Goldstein o Director Department of Microbiology an- Agricultural Experiment Stapon Molecular Genetics . Michigan State University/ Harvard Medical School East Lansing, MI 48824 Boston, MA 02115 Cathenne E. Woteki William Hamilton Group Leader Professor Food and Diet ,pfppraisal Management and Technology Research 0 0 Program Science and Education University of Pennsylvania Administration o° Philadelphia, PA 19104 U.S. Department of Agriculture Hyattsville, MD 20782 Donald J. Hillman Director Chnstopher Wright Cent% for information and _Science Policy Staff Member Computer Science Carnegie Institutionof Lehigh University Washington Bethlehem, PA 18015 1530 P St NW Irving S. Johnson Washington. DC 20005 Vice President Lilly Research Laboratones Eh Lilly and Company Indianapolis, IN 46285 fr e Nathan J. Karch. WORKSHOP II: APPLYING SCIENCE,AND Clement Associates, Inc. Scientific Regulatory TECHNOLOGY TO PUBLIC PURPOSES Consultants ., William J. Abernathy 1010 Wisconsin Ave.. NW Professor Washington. DC 20007 Harvard Business School Julia Graham Lear Boston, MA 02163 DeputyDirector ' Community Hospital Program Willis Adcock School of Medicine Assistant Vice sident Georgetown University Texas Instrumes Washington,. DC 20007 Dallas. TX 75265 o Alan Leshner o R. Darryl Banks ; Five Year Outlook Program Executive Assistant 4. Manager Officeof Researchand Office of Special Projects Development National Science Foundation U.S. Environmental Protection Washington, DC 20550 *Agency_ Washington. i5 -c26460 John M. Logsdon Director William J. 'Farrell Graduate Program in Science, Associate. Vice President for Technology and Public Policy Educational Development and George Washington University Research Washington, DC 20052 University of Iowa Iowa City, IA 52242 Leah M. Lowenstein Associate Dean Herbert I. Fusfeld Scholl of Medicine Director Boston University Center for Science andTech- Boston, MA 02118 notogy Policy New York University William W. Lowrance New York. NY 10012 Senior Fellow and Director Life Sciences and Public Policy Denos Gazis T Program Assistant Vector Rockefeller University Computer-SNehee-Departmc 1230 York Ave. IBM Research Center NewYork, NY 10021 Yorktown Heights, NY 10598 0544as, Allan C. Mazur Robert Gillespie Ct Professor Vice Provost for Computing' Social Science Program University of Washington Syracuse University Seattle, W14. 98105 Syracuse, NY 13210 4 I 1 540 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Granger Morgan Jane Setlow Professor Biology Department Department of Engineering and Brookhaven National Laboratory Public Policy Upton, NY 11973 Carnegie-Mellon University Vincent F. Simmon Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Vice President for Technical Pauline Newman I Operations Director Genex Corporation Laboratories Patent and Licensing Department 12300 Washington Ave. . FMC Colin/ration Rockville, MD 20852 Philadelphia, PA 19*3 Kenneth Solomon Jill Pace (Staff) Engineering and Applied Sci- Office of Public Sector Programs ence Department American Association for the RAND Corpdration Advancement of Science Santa Monica, CA 90406 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW Albert H. Teich (Project Washington, DC 20036 Director) Ginger Payne (Staff) Manager, Science Policy Studies Office of Public Sector Programs American Association for the American Association for the Advancement of Science Advancement of Science 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 Washington, DC 20036 Ray TIvaton (Chairman) Gail Pesyna President 4, President's Commission on a Arkansas State University National Agenda for the \- State University, AR 72467 Eighties James W. Vaupel Washington, DC 20006 Professor current address: Departments of Public Policy Central Research and Devel- Studiesand Business opment Department Administration E.I. duPont de Nemours, Inc. Duke University Wilmington, DE 19898 Durham, NC 27705 Richard A. Rettig Charles Weinet Senior Social Scientist Professor of History' of Science RAND Corporation and Technology 2100 M St., NW .Massachusetts Institute of Washington, DC 20037 Technology Henry Riecken Cambridge, MA 02139 Senior Program Advisor Karl Willenbrock National Library of Medicine Cecil H. Green Professor of Bethesda, MD 20209 Engineering 5. David Roessner School of Engineering and Ap- Professor plied Sciences School of Social Sciences Southern Methodist University Georgia Institute of Technology Dallas, TX 75275 AtlantarGA 30332 Richard S. Rosenbloom David Sarnoff Professor of Business Administration \ Harvard Business School Boston, MA 02163 .1 I O Membership' of Comfnittee.on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPP) V a4 The Honorable Ray Thorntonf Dr. Melvin Kranzberg (1982) (.1983) Callaway PrOfessor of the His- (chairman) - tory of Technology President Georgia Institute of Technology Arkansas State University Atlanta, Georgia State University, Arkansas Dr R. Darryl Banks (1983) Dr. Wesley It. Kuhn (1982) Executive Assistant Vice President, Technology Officeof Researchand United Technologies Development Corporation U.S. Environmental Protection Hartford, Connecticut Agency - Washington, DC Dr, Patricia McFate (1982) Dr. Eloise E. Clark (1983) Deputy Chairman , (Board-Representative) . National Endowment for the National Science Foundation Humanities Washington, DC Washington, DC - Dr. Gerald P. Dinneen (1983) Vice President, Science and Dr. Blaine C. McKusick (1983) Technology HaskeR Laboratory for Toxi- Honeywell, Inc. cologyandIndustrial Minneapolis, Minnesota f' Medicine E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. Dr. Phyllis Kahn (1984) Wilmington; Delaware Member, Minnesota House of Representatives Dr. Edwin Mansfield (1984) St. Paul, Minnesota Department of Economics Ms. Punch S. Cur lin;Staff Representatave, AAAS, Washington, DC University of Pennsylvania Now TOrnis expire on the hist day of the Annual.Meeting of the year.igticard in prodises. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 54T 0 542. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 0 Mr. Rodney W. Nichols (1983) Dr. Benjamin S.P. Shen (1984) Reese W. Flower Professor of Executive VicePresidents. The Rockefeller University Astrophysics . New York, New York University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Dr. Gail Pesyna (1984) Program Specialist, New Bust- Mr. William D. Carey . ness Programs (ex officio) Executive Officer, AAAS Central Research and Devel- Washington, DC t.. opment Department E.I. du Pont de Nerpours & Co. 0` Wilmington, Delaware k 0 0 2. 1 t. a I i . i * ,,'. 11 ... ^.", . THE 'FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK FOR-SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: SOCIAL AND BEHAV*AL-SCIENCES .---- .. , . (-. ' . k : _ - - .. ) , ) . . A Report from, the . Social Science Research:Council . 0 . MP . R 4. . ir 1 , e Mr A Introductiori According to the legislation that mandated it, the Five- review chapters. This perspective rests on the premise Aar Outlook for .science and technology has two pur- that investigations of fundamental questions about hu- poses. One is to inform the Congress of emerging areas man and behavior and social processes provide the data, of scientific and technological research that promise to theories, concepts, and methods that lead to informed illuminate problems of national significance. A second decision-making in both public and private sectors. purpose to identify those research topics and 11; con- Moreover, those parts of social science specifically de- ditions th t facilitate innovative research arrant signed to evaluate public programs or to examine social specialttention during the next five years. These two problems derive"methodological rigor and theoretical in- objectives have been met by the preparation of .back- sight from research efforts conducted throughout the so- ground essays on 'research in science and technology. cial sciences. The essays included here, therefore, review With respect to developments in research in the social research that is characterized, by scientific merit and and behavioral sciences, the Social Science Research momentum, These research areas also promise to Alls- Council invited leading scholars in several different immediate_ _ , . _ tate areas of social concern, both in the future fields to prepare review articles. and, more importantly, in the decade to come. 'Debates in the Congress on the level of research sup- port for the social sciences frequently center on the use- fulness of such research as the criterion for funding. Although a set of essays that emphasized the direct ap- ESSAYS ON RESEARCH FRONTIERS plications-of social science research would respond to Under the gilidance of a Steering Committe0, five to ics this demand and fulfill one of the Five-Year Outlook's reflecting major intellectual currepts in social an e- legislated mandates, the essays would not reflect the havioral research were selected foi. extended treatent: breadth of knowledge that the social sciences can con- relationships between behavior and physical health; in- tribute to the understanding and resolution of social fluences on the social and emotional development of problems. . children; a changing perspective. on individual devel- A broader perspectilie on social signifi9nce is outlined opment over the entire life' course; statistical measure- *P. in the first chapter, and is illustrated throughout the five ment of social change; and recent advances in sufvey 545 4' 546SSRC FIVE -YEAR OUTLOOK technique and analysis. All five tics grow out of sig- social and behavioral sciences, no less than the natural nificant research in the social 'and behavioralsciences;. sciences, work systematically to improve their research all five hold proillise for the illumination of major areas' tools and techniques, of national policy. STATISTICAL MEASUREMENT BEHAVIOR AND HEALTH The use and analysis of statistical data in social research The essay on behavior and health reviews research on aile discussed in the.essay on the statistical measurement the implications of individual behavior patterns for health of social Change, a research tradition that dates back to and physical disease. Behavior and health are linked in the report of the Committee on Recent Social-Trends three priacipal ways: through the direct effects of psy- established by President Herbert Hobver in 1929. The chosociar factors on tissue function; through the detri- essay reexamines sexeral socialtrends, such as the mental effects of life-style and habits onhealth; and changing divorce rate, that have previously been mis:, through the responses of patients to symptoms and 4:1 to interpreted;.in particular, it considers ways inWhich the medical treatment. hi drawing on the research traditions measurement of social change is affected by theanalyt- of both the biomedical and the social sciences, this work ical approaches employed, by changes in the concepts on behavior and health illustratesthe promise of research being' measured, and by the accuracy of assumptions that occurs at the intersection of the social sciences and aboute shape of future change. Research onstatistical other disciplines. Other examples include research on measu es of social change represents along-term col- sensation and perception, Which draws on thefields of laborat on,and commonality of interests between the gov- physics, biology, and psychology, as well as thedevel- ernment and social scientists. opment of computer software. CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT THE L -SPAN PERSPECTIVE Research on children's growth and development has long been of interest to parents, schools, and agencies at all The essay on the life-span perspectivein social science levels,of government. Most past research, however, has research describes ageneral approach toresearch on in- dividual development and social change ratherthan a concentrated on the intellectual or cognitive development of.children. Recent work on their social and emotional well defined substantive area such asbehavior and development, the subject of tht fifth essay, responds to health. Underlying this approach is the view thathuman the concerns of parents, educators, and policy makers, development continues throughout the life courseand are not fixed for it recognizes that intellectual, growth is only one as- that individual characteristics and statuses is, itself, life-span pect of the development of children, one that . but continue' to change. Research employing a affected by social and emotional development. perspective has already altered many of our assumptions The essay reviews recent research on the impact of abdut old age, adult education, and the ways in which parents, peers, and television on children's moral de- people of all ages adapt and respondtochange. The velopment and on the learning of cooperative and al- essay also illustrates howremingly unrelated research truistic behayior. It considers such complex issues as in severaFdisciplines has contributed tothe development how children acquire self-confidence., the motivation to perspective, , 'of.a cumulative research perspective. This help others, and know'edge of society's laws, rules, and theory and research in tum, has.the potential to change. the willingness of inform the norms, This research demonstrates in each of the contributing disciplips and to social scientists to explore some of the most difficult and almost all sectdrs of.,the development of social elusive dimensions of human behavior, and is an ex- govemment. ample of a true frontier in the social and behavioral 1 sciences. ADVANCES IN METHODS 1 . I The essay on methods for social surveyssomewhat OTHER CURRENTS IN THESOCIAL AND. more_technicalthan theother_essayssummarizes-recentBEFfAVIORAE SCItNdES methodological advances On problems encduntered in the achieve- design, collection, and analysis of large-scale social sur- The essays in this volume illustrate important sciences. They do veys. ,It also examines the uses ofadministrative data ments in the social and behavidral mhjor- advances; nor and the specialproblems posed by. longitudinal surveys. not, of course, exemplify all of the Despite its technical nature, this is an appropriate and do they represent all of the diverseapprOiChes, methods, !the Five-Year Outlook because of and substantive topics thavomprise thesedomains. Al- important subject for of . the government's subStantial investment in statistics and though it is not possible to sketch here the full range sciences, it isuseful, survey research.Thi4 essay also demonstrates how thel-reiearch encompassed by the social 160 r Introduction547 as a background for the chapters that fo. llow, to note characteristics of these kinds of research deserve special several types of research that-have not been included in note. .. this volume. Transnational research focuses on phenomena tliat are f.` separate from nation-siates, but always involve at-least POLICY,. RESEARCH two of them: Although transnational pnomtna are not new topics for research, recent chap esfor example, Both the findings and methods of-the.iocial and behav- the increased volume and, diversity of people and goods ioral sciences are often applied to public policy, even moving across national boundaries or the development if they are not part of "policy research." The defining of large and embracing transnational institutions, such characteristic of policy research per sewhich is var- as the modern transnational corporation have attracted. iously called applied research, policy analysis, or social increased attention from social scientists. Researchers research and developmentIs the intention oT sponsors have been examining the changing nature of transnational and scholars to provide advice or information on a prob- phenomena and their consequences for national states lem situation that is external to the science itself. The and international organizations. research problems selected for attention are drawn from Studies of the modern transnational corporation, for social problems (such as poverty, hunger, and unem- example, try to understand how its social organization ployment) and, in addition, from policy problems. For enables it to take advantage of different national market example, one area of policy research, science planning, conditions in making prbductiOn and marketing decisions has a long research tradition, dating from the support for that will maximize benefits for the corporation. As more the first Science Advisory Board, in the 1930s, by the of these corporations have been based outside the United Social Science Division of the Rockefeller Foundation. States, researchers have looked at the changing positions Systematic social inquiry is expected to contribute rel- of national companies within the international environ- evant knowledge to public and private agencies respon; ment,and at the effects Of,their decisions on national Bible for designing ameliorative policies. A more exten- states.ocial scientists have also been concerned with sive disCussion of policy °research is found in the first the changing circbmstances of transnatiOn4 phenomena, chapter. such as the implications of international competition for scarce resources. Other transnational phenomena which are foci of current social science research include reli- INTERNATIONAL STUDIES gious movements, ethnic groups with transnational The findings and methods described in these essays are identitiet, arid such agencies as the Red Cross and Am- concerned with the behavior and attitudes of individuals nesty International. 4 and groups that,are situated within nations or bounded Most researclk on international phenomena focuses by national societies. Equally significant are studies that either on nation- states, or on phenomena derived from examine,phenomena derived from the interactions of their interactions. Political scientists have long studied nation - states; analyze relationships, institutions, and so- relations among nation-states and their impact on a va- cial,movements that cross and transcend national bound- riety6f national problems. Now, responding to increases aries, or attempt to assess cross-national evideice. Taken in the diversity and complexity of international relation- together, these three types of researchinternationay, ships, social scientists are developing nevi theories and transnational; anti cross-nationalcomprise most of methods for studying the economic, political,socio- what is included, in the United States, under the rubric cultural, and strategic interactions of nations. Examples of "international studies." of current international research topics include: global or .4 The American social science research community en- limited warfare; international negotiations, treaties, and gaged in intertional studies is now in an important tran- agreements pertaining to arms limitation, trade, migra- sition. During the past thirty years, foreign area studies tion, and other matters that frame and affect the activities have produced an impressive body of research on the .of transnational actors; and the operations of global and societies and cultures of other areas of the world., Now, regional international organizations such as the_United___ however, social scientists are moving beyond the kinds Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organizatios, and the of questions about the nature of other societies, lan- Asian Development, Bank. 4.. guages, and cultures that originally gave rye to area Cross-national research compares similar phenomena. studies, and beyond the single country or regional focus in different cultural settings. Often the boundaries of that has prevailed historically in this research. In a world such phenomena are nation - states; however, they may that is experieking both increasing interdependence and also be regions or culture groups. The growing inter- fragmentation, there is understandably a growing interest dependence of nations requires a greater understanding among American social scientists in research that probes phenomena in different historical and cultural settings. 41-4, the significance of Cultural boundaries, or that explores' Central to such an understanding is the capacity to make phenomena that cross and bridge such boundaries. Some effective comparisons, to identify the commonalities as 548SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK well as the uniqueness of particular circumstances. tween the state and different faCtions of the elite class; Cross-gational studies of work, family, ethnicity, reli-. And some. experts onTaiwan and Korea point to the gion, and political parties are advancing our understand- importance of the countries' positions in the world eco- ing of the behavior and experiences of- individuals, nomic system as a key to understanding their rapid eco- groups, and institutions beyond what can b6 learned froth nomic growth. These new approaches to the study of studies Ingle societies, state and society have already stimulated promising re- Al ough each of these modes of social science ref' search on such topicsas the politics of economic searcis distinct, they .are (Meg combined in the study .development: of particular phenomena. For example, in studying a t specific ethnic -group it may be important to its APPROACHES AND METHODS distribution within and across national boundaries, in- sr The chapters that follow illustrate somebut not all= ternational regulationS governing the migration and ) travel of ethnic group members, and comparative indi- of the important methodologies in the social and behav- cators of the experierices of members in different his- ioral sciences. These essays represent dominant research torical and cultural situations. Similarly, in order to un- traditions of American sociarscience; as a result,, they derstand the activities of transnational corporations in a do not reflect-challenges to some of the central assump- given country, it may be necessary to examine the in- tions of mainstream social science from several new ternational and domestic regulations that structure and approaches. . regulate their activities and the range of their activities. The dominant tradition of American social science in other national settings. Studies that combine trans - uses as itstasic data systematic observations or measures national, international, and cross-national research com- of individuals or groups, extracted for analytical pur- prise an important and growing part of American social poses from their larger context. Thege observations are science. organized into discrete 'variables, and hypothesized causal relationships between them are tested by ex m- ining the impact of change's in one variable on .cnges MACRO RESEARCH . in the others. This type of social science is modeled on The essays that follow focus primarily on individuals- as the physical sciences. It emphasizes the use of quanti- the units'of analysis; Much of social science, however, tative data, esppcially survey data, and to a lesser extent, is concerned with collectivities, institutions, arid orga- experimental data. Its underlying assumption is that an nizations. During the past several years social and be- understanding of relationships among significant varia- haviopl: scientists have directed increasing attention to bles will enable society to developeve them eans for alter- the development of conceptual approaches and Meth(); ations and improvements. . dalogies for studying such collective institutions: In recent years, other apprOaches- to social science,' Illustrative of this kind of work is the growing body such as vyucturalism, ethnomethodology, and "interpre- of theory and_research on states and social structures. tive" sdcial science, have challenged the aims and as- Instead of regarding the state simply as a reflection of sumptions of this dothinant tradition. The nature of these other social forces, recent social science research has challenges can, perhaps, be illustrated m t effectively corn to view the state as a relatively autonomous actor, by 'examining the interpretive appregh. or explanation both nfluencing, and being influenced: by, the society. in greater detail. This-new research is attempting to define state structures Interpretive social science seeks a detailed understand- and to identify the conditions that affect the development ing of the meaning of actions, customs, evertand of these structures arid capacities. institutions to the individuals and groups that Studies of state structures may proceed examining and participate in them. It seeks to explain not by cause 1: their organizational sub-units, bureaucratic patterns, ane , oruniversal law, but by understanding particular.wholes. the legal norms that shape their interaction. Studies of Social scientists working in this tradition typically states' varying Alities to achieve their objectives are draw -en-ease- studies ck individuals-and-small-groups, investigating the potential relationships among different and many'of their methods are taken from the humanities. capacities: for example, whether a state's ability, to de- They have drawn increasinglfunon techniques of literary fend its territory or preserve social order is related to the analysis and on the ults of metaphor, narrative, and capacity to transform society, to achieve economic de, scripts as tools for understandinN2cial behavior. Thus, velopment, or to'redistribute wealth. In seeking to un-s a particular domain in the life of a person,or group (e.g., derstand the differential capacities of states, researchers politics, the occupational world, the family, or religion) are examining relationships betwep the state andother can be examined using the techniques of literary analysis. groups and institutions in society, including other na- The goal is to explain the meaning of the symbols that tions. Thus, some scholars attribute the recent economic the individuals and groue depend on to organize their successes of Brazil to the formation oinew bonds be- lives. I') Introduction549 - This new approach within American social science is tered by a president.and a staff of social scientists, the provoking controversy because it redefines the objectives Council seeks to advance research in thg social sciences of the enterprise, the kind of knOWledge desired, and the in a wide vtriety of ways: it appoints committees of appropriate ways of obtaining that knowledge. Although scholars to Jet priorities and make. plans for critical, it derives froin "academic" sources, this approach generally interdisplinary areas of social science re- has its practical uses: knowing what an ow people search, it seeks lo improve research capabilities through think about their families or jobs is important information training institutes and ellowship programs; it works to in any effort to bring about improvements in living con- support individual research through the provision of post- dititins. The results of this and other recent approaches, doctpral grants; it convenes research conferences that are in the social and behavioral sciences are just beginning often interdisciplinary and international; and it sponsgia, to emerge. Yet the research literature they liav e afready the preparation of books and other research publications generated is certain to influence the kinds of materials that often result from these activities. 'collected and analyses untirtaleen by,social scientists The Assembly of Behavioral and Social Sciences generally. (ABASS) is one of eight major program units of the National Rdearch Council, the principal 'operating agency ID f the National Academy of Sciences. The As-., INSTITUTIOOF THE SOCIAL SCIFZICES gembly provides the primary forum for the behaviolal and social sciences in all National Research Council en- Much of the social and behavioral. science research that deavors and is active!), involved in efforts to relate the is carried out in the United States is undertaken by faculty behhvioral and social sciences to public policy. Gov- members at the nation's research universities. Research erned by a board of,social seientists and'administeied is also conducted in a variety of centers and institutes, by an executive director and a professional staff, its work some free- standing and some affiliated with universities. is carried out largely through committee of scholars. These are the social science equivalents of the labora- Generally, sits activities are initiated not byholars but tories and observatories of the pkysical and natural sci- by officials of the federal government, for its on the ences. There are, in addition, ,..sveral natiorial organi- government's behalf that the National Research Council zatiods that provide' special services to the social is chartered to conduct and sponsor research. sciences, both to individual scholars and to the research The Center for Advanced Study in the Beha writ centers and institutes. A third category of institutions Sciences, founded in 1954 With funds from, the rd that play.a significant role in serial science research are Foundation, provides about 50 scholars a year with the public and private institutions that provide financial quiet, the library resources, and the freedom from teac support to individual scholars, universities, and other tng and administrative responsibilities that are conduciv organizations. This concluding section of the introduc- to research and writing. Typically, Fellows at the (ente tion to the Five-Year Outlook proVides an overview of either plan their' next research pro' ct or complete a book the insqutions that house, foster, and support the social about their latest one. In recent years,owever, the Cen- sciences. ter has taken a more active role in planning and guiding new areas of research, primarily 1,37 sponsoring confer-. es NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS 41 ences and workshops. It is considered an honor' to be There is no official umbrella organization, for the social invited to be a Fellow at the Center, which remains both sciences in the United States, but each discipline has a a symbolic focus of high quality research and a locale national professional association to`whicla mpst scholars where this research is often generated. in? the field belong. These associations spOnsol annual meetings and the publication of journals, maintain RESEARCH INSTITUTES professional and ethical standards, Sand publicize grant co and fellowship opportunities. Only rarely do they be- There are hundreds euniversity-bas$41 social research came directly involved in research (beyotiirthe-phli- institutes in th-e-Uilited-States. Most are small, serving cation of results), instead, they fetus on the professional the research interests of a relatively few faculty members lives dftheir members. sand a larger number of graduate students; a few dozen In contrast to these professional associations are three are more extensive, wg specialized programs. Of these, natiorial organizations that are directly concerned with two are outstanding both in size and in the quality of the 'research of social scientists.' )iesearch they produce: the Institute for Social Research The Social Science Research Council (SSRC), founded at the University of Michigan, and the Nlional Opinion in 1923, was created by representatives of the seven Research Center at the University of Chicago. major social science dOlciplines for the explicit purpose The Institute for Social taesearch (ISR) at the Uni- of aeancing research. Governed by a board that is partly versity#of Michigan was founded in 1946. It has since elected by the professional associations, and adminis- become the nation's Idrgest.and most diversified social . 440 .140-""\ 550SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK science institution situatecrOn a university campus. The stitutions that make social research possible by providing Institute consists of a number of subsidiary organiza- financial support to individuals, universities, and other tions; the largest and best known of which is the Survey organizatiOns. Research Center. The Center, in turn, is widely k' own Citable among the many private organizations. that. or its panel studies of voters innational elections, its have supported social science research are the Ford@owl- surVeys of consumer, expectations, and its'researchinto dation, and the Rockefeller Foundation. By no means larg -scale organizations. identical in orientation, emphasis, or focus of activities, both foundations- are keenly interested in international - e`National_ Opinion Research Center (NORC) was founded in1941at the University of Denver, where it relations and world problems, and in social, 'economic, established a nationwide-staff of trained interviewers. In and demographic research (although their concerns are 1947,NORC moved to the University.of Chicago, where not limited to these areas). Some staff research is con- it has focused on methodological development and sur- ducted at each foundatk, but both organizations work veys conductedtn behalf of a widevariety of private primarily through griatM to institutions and fellowships and public sponsors. Among its projects, it currently to individuals. The involvement of these and other foun- administers the General Social Survey, which is a pe- dations in social science research extends beyond the riodic attempt to obtain, standardized information about provision of financial support By setting their own iri= ' the general public. stitutional priorities, and deciding where and how their 4'40Among the research centersa(d.'institutes affiliated resourceslhould be committed, they also exert (directly with universities, the centers forthe study of foreign or indirectly) an important influenceover 'the direction areas deserve special note.Where there are concentra- of social science research. lions of faculty with expertise on a particular geographic Of the other private sources that support research !lion, there is often an administrativeunit such as an the social.sliences, prominent mention should be given institute dr center. More often than not, the unit is a Title lo the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Alfred P. VI*Center, i.e.,it receives federal funds authorized under Sloan Foundation, and the. Russell Sage Foundation. In Title VI-of the National DefenseEdtcatioAct of 1958. addition to support, these organization's also providix sig- The importance of these centers extends beyond thead- nificant readership in the social sciences. ministrative support they provide for scholars: they corn- Other major sources of support for the social sciences 'bine the functions of teaching and researchtothe im- are.the various agencies of the federal government. Es- provement of each and-they provide an environment tablished by law in1950to assume public responsibility for interdisciplinary and collaborative teachingand for developing basic research in the physical and bio- research. logical sciences, the NationalScience Foundation (NSF) There are many important social res h institutions now encompasses applied researchin these areas as well that are independent of universities. Most arcnonprofit, as basic and applied research in thebehavioral and social but die, Abt Associates, located in.lylassachusetts,is a sciences. In recent years, support for the social sciences large and successful profit-making institute, supported has accounted for about 7% of the total NSF budget. In chiefly by government contracts. Major nonprofitinsti- addition to supporting research conducted in the United tutes that conduct or support a substantial amountof States, NSF has an impressive international program social science research include the AmericanEnterpriie which encourages and stimulatfs cooperative science Institute (Washington, D.C.); the BrookingsInstitution activities by supporting joint research projects and sem- (Washington,. D.C.); the Hoover Institute (Stanford, inars, exchanges of scientists, joint commissions for sci- California); the National,tureau of EconomicResearch entific' and technologjcal cooperation, and participation (Cambricige,, Massachusetts); The RandCorporation in international scientific oi.ganizations'Nitany of these 4Santa Moliki, California); and the ResearchTriangle activities operate under formal bilateral or multilateral Institute, (Research Park, North Carolina). Many U.S. agreements with foreign countries. For more than a dec- government agencies conduct social scienceresearch, ade, through its Science in DevelopingCountries Pro."- including the Agency forInternanonal Development, the grant,NSF-has- supported cooperative research-projects- Department ot:Agriculture, and the National Institutes involving scientists from the Unitedtates and devel- Of Health., Social itsearch is also conductedby various oping countries. Addressed to problems of common in-, United Nations agencies throughoutlike,world; in the teresf, theprojects supported under this program often United States) Population Division and .theUnited include those in the social sciences. Nations Fund for Population Activities arethe most Another major source of federal funds, the National important. Endowment for the Hutinities -(NEH), was created by Congress in1965to supportresorch, education,' and SUPPORTINGIATITUTIONS other publiC activity in the humanities. The Endowment, In addition 'to the researchinstitutes and national orga- supports research in cultural anthropology, sociology, nizations, are a varietyof public and private in political theory, and internationalstudiesin brief, so- . Introduction551 cial science subjects whith connect with humanistic top- the U.S. to lecture an d condu ct post-doctoral research; ics or research methods. The Endowment's programsare at the same time, 500 American scholars and profes- administered primarily through divisions such as the sionals were sent to 100 nations. These individuals ill-- Division of Research Grants which provides support to cluded a significant number of economists, political sci- institutions and individuals for research projects as well entists, and sociologists. The Fulbright,&ogram. also as for the preparation of important research tools such awards predoctaral fellowships through sucINnstitutions. as bibliogaphies. as the Committee for Scholarly Communication with the Sometimes agencies combine resources: one example 11eople's Republic of China (CSCPRC), which ,admin- is the program stipported jointly by the NSF and NEH isters the U.S. Government's scholarly exchange pro- to fpster research, education, and other activitieson the gram with that country, and the Interfiational Research value implications of advances in science and technol- 101 Exchanges Board, which administersthe Fulbright ogy. This program also encourages collaborative, inter- tothanges with Eastern European countries and the disciplinary work between humanists and social and be- USSR. havioral scientists on value questions arising from This brief introduction was intended to give the reader emerging social, economic,lod technological issues. a sense of the intellectual and institutional context of Atiother prominent example of federal involvement social science research. Narrowing this broad context to in, social science research is the Fulbright Program, es- a set of six essays was difficult. In the end, it was decided tablished in 1946 under legislation introduced by former to select five subjects for extended treatment which were 016 Senator J William Fulbright. Designed to increase mu- illustrative of exciting new directions or cumulative re- tual understanding and knowledge between the United search progress, even though those five topics could States and other countries, the Fulbright Program does never be representative of 'the, full range of social and not itself carry out research, but instead encourages the behavioral research now underway. The sixth essay, with exchange of ideas and knowledge through exchanges of which the set begins, cariies, the introductory themeone students, teachers, and scholars. Each year, more than step further and deals with the social significantof 3,300 grants are awarded to individuals. In 1979-1980, research in the social and behavioral sciences. approximately 700 scholars from 75 comitriescame to NOTES Gardner Lindzey (Center forsAdvariced Study in the Behavioral Sci- ences). Roberta Balstad Miller served as SSRC staff. IThe Steenng Committe &is made up of Kenneth 15rewittOocial Science Research Council). Robert Mc Adams (Committee in Basic 2 Because of the unual role of these three organizations in social Research in the Behavioral and Social Sciences of the Assembly of* , science research, a repreataride of each served on the Steenng Com-, Behavioral. and .Social Research. National Research Council). and mittee for the preparation of these reports. 0 s. 4. 4-5 t..to 1Atsessing-the Significance of SOcial I Science Research .000 Kenneth Prewitt pee -INTRODUCTION CONSTRUCTS The Five-Year Outlook on science and technology is The behavioral and sotial sciences have produced nu- intended to bring to the attention of the Congress research merous interpretive constructs. which explain, interpret, areas and disciplines that are both scientifically and so- and deepen our understanding of social phenomena that cially significant. Within the sphere of our responsibility, previously were incorrectly or inadequately compre- the behavioral and social sciences, we have chosen five hended. The list of such constructs is long: human cap- substantive areas foi their demonstrated scientific merit ital, span of control, the unccnscibus, gross national as well as for their obvious importance to public well- product (GNP), acculturation, and referencegroupsto being. This chapter provides a more general statement name but a few. Social science research does nit, of about the relationship between social science, researcik course, invent these. phenomena, but it does invent the and the public welfare. This statement is constructed, constructs that help us to see them more ,clearly. The first, in terms of 'six principles that enable us to assess calculation of the unanticipated costs of market econ- the social significanceof research; and second, in terms omies predated the concept of externalities, but the in- of the outlook for the continued significance of this troduction of the concept has increased society's under- research. - . standing of both resource .depletion and unintended environmental consequences. A more extended illustration of the use of social sci- ence concepts can be drain.' fromdevelop/natal...1k' y- chology and the conception of childhood offered by Jean SIX PRINCIPLES OFr SOCIAL SIGNIFICANCE Piaget and his followers. Before Piaget's research, it was The six principles of social significance discussed, are generally assumed that the infant was passive, unaware, constructs, systematic information, empirical regulari- acrd insensitive. Indeed, reSs than one hundred years ago, ties,.practical applications, niavrket value, and puhlic it was thought that infants were born deaf and blind. But policy uses./ infancy research ha now demOnstrated that infants are f. .553 1GG 554 SSRC FIVE-YEAR 01,ITLOOKII. person-like and resilient. Not only are babies born with heavy use of population data and demographic projec- distinct visual and auditory .abilities and preferences, tions in decisions about where to locale an office, factory, they are also born with already evident individual dif- or retail outlet and about thekirtds. of products to produce ferences in temperament and personality. Knowing this, and the- nature of, the marketing strategy to follow The aware parents can structure an infant's environment so age distribution of the population andchanges in the as to make it tweresting and appropriate to the child's composition of households:have far-reaching implica- age and temperament- For example, parents now realize tions for commerce, labor markets, social security pro- that certain infant behaviors are form s of communication. grams, crime deterrence, school enrollments, transpor- The concepts of developmental psychology, help us uh- tation needs,rdemands for housing, and recruitment to derstand'the ways in which infants are curious and active the armed forces. and, in their own terms, knowledgeable and competent. The information base for which the social sciences Whether from 'Psychology, economics,, sociology, or can claim some credit extends wellbeyond national sta- anthropology, socsi science concepts Ming the previ- tistical systems or demogiaphic projections. It includes ously inaccessible Id social consciousness. In this sense, what a society is able to learn about its own past through one of the principal functions of resrch is to lessen the research of historians, and what it learns abolit the ignorance or incomprehension and to provide constructs *cultures and aspirations of other people through the of -' with which to interpret and understand reality. But it is forts of scholars who study other societies 41t was to a truth of science. readily acknowledged, that it expands anthropologists that military and political leaders turned the frontiers of ignorame even as it expands the frontiers in' the 1940's when the leaders realized how little they of knowledge. To explore the workings of the human knew of the South Pacific islanders and their culture. mind, the history of'asociety, , the meaning 'of a cult Forty years later this° tradition continues, as corporate the functioning of an economy, is inevitably t sk in- leaders of multinational firms draw upon scholarly ex- creasuily yrofound and complex questions. Science pertise for information and analysis pertinent to distant proceeds as much by the new questions it miles as by markets and foreign supplies of raw materials the prior questions it answers. In this process, research Care must be taken to distinguish information from produces concepts. Ironically, the social sciences seldom the judgments that take information into account. Social receive credit for these contributions to our intellectual science analysis is not a substitute for judgment and life because the constructs, once labeled, soon become choice, which are matters for the 'deliberative processes conventional wisdom. of society or the moral reasoning of individuals. Policy decisions by governments, investment decisions by busi- nesses, career decisions by individualsthese and other SYSTETTIC INFORMATION judgments can be aided but not predetermined by infor- Social science, through i tenance of sophisticated machinery. . methods of social science far exceeds y, hat is commonly Fluid and crystallized intelligence appear to have dif- assumed. no doubt because the institutions and persons ferentcleelopment_ profiles,an empirical regularity making use of research results are often unfamiliar with which, if confirmed through repeated testing. will have the source of that which they apply deep implications-for issues as diverse as the sequencing kill /.instructioninearly schooling,thetraining- of MARKET VALUE military personnel for using increasingly sophisticated technical equIpment, mid-career occupational schange. One measure of the practicality of social science methods . educational and employment opportunjues for retired and intellectual constructs istheir flourishing in free ' persons, and the preparation of age-related educational market economies. The commercial sector of the United States and other allvanced industrial nations has invested materials. . . For five decades, social science has revealed empirical heavily in technologies whose roots are In social science regularities that are now routinely and matter- of- factly research.' Demographic analysis and protections have taken into account by governments, businesses. orga- already been Mentioned. ofrOther examples are standard- nizations, and:families. These are true discoveries in t1V ized personnel testing. rooted in psychometrics: eco- sense that the regularities exist pnor to research, but can nomic forecasting models. rooted in econometrics: man- only become part of Mt map of society if the discovery machine system design,' rooted in both physiological psychology' ant information science; rizirlec t research. process occurs. . . rotifeillh sampling theory and survey resegrch: manage- ment of foreign eocchange risks, rooted in international PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS economics and risk analysis; and-political polling, rooted Social science research findings are frequently 'applied in voting studies and election analysis. As is often the in practical situations. Sometimes the application is di- case, the industries marketing these technologies are sel- rect Often it occurs,after modification to meet partiCular dom familiar with their origins in social science research, practical goals. An example of the lager is behavior And it would overstate the case for social science to modification therapy, now widely used in personal health claim full credit for*such multi- million dollar.industries regimens, the treatment of neurotic and psychotic dis- as `econometric forecasting or standardized testing or orders, and substance abuse prevention. Behavior mod- demographic protections. but it does not exaggerate to ittation derives from earlier researchon operant con- observe that none of they.,industrieso would have devel- ditioning. The principles from this research have bren oped in the manner or at the rate it has in the,,absence tailorecto meet behavior modification goals, but they , of earlier social science research. exist independently of the many applications now being More generally, social science research and training mfle. Research in cognitive psychology and memory have contributed to the human capital resources of the . , provides many other examples. Reading programs have society. One source of the comparative advantage of the been 'redesigned as a result of findings from cognitive United ,States in the international economy has been its psychology and linguistics. Memory research has been tnvestment in the hutnan skills and knowledge that pro- put to growing use by the police and the courts inas- duced global marketing, financing, and management sys- sdsing eyewitness testimony. tems1 Sustaining thi4madvantage will depend upon ex- U 556 SWie FIVE -YEAR OUTLOOK panding our understanding of the international flow of market helps to clarify patterns of intra- and international labor, capital, resources. and commodities. It will de- labor migration. It casts issues of unemployment in a pend upon the managerial capacity to plan and organize new and sharper light. It also raises questions about the transnational systems of distribution and financing. In accuracy of national measures of economic growth and short, it depends upon the type of aitellectual resources productivity. Recent evidence indicates an explosive and knowledge to which an infermitionally oriented so- growth in employment in the 'service and light manu- ' cial science has made, and will continue to make, a facturing sectors, much of it hidden from the present contribution. accounting system. It is research of this sort that can lead to a reconception and improvement of the national reporting system. A program Yo combat unemployment PUBLIC poucyLAS through reindustrialization, for instance, will miss its Social science research methods have been widely used mark if it is based on poorly conceptualized labor market in the public policy process. Sucii Spplicationsinclude statistics. thus, social science research contributes to the &liberate design of studies t6 inform or evaluate a :public policy not just data collection techniques but also policy choice. More often, however, the methods and way s to think about the kinds of data that are needed results of social science research enter the public policy In some instances, the govepment has asked social process in more indirect ways. Consider the national_ scientists for research explicitly designed to aid in the statistical sy stem of the United States, which is the foun- implementation or rejection of public policy alternatives dation km- numerous federal and state policies in health:. A prominent example of such research is the large-scale hou,sing, education, welfare, commerce, and industry social policy experiment. Just as the federal government This national statistical system is constructed largely on has considered major reforms in health, housing, and the methodologyof sample surveys as developed over welfare policies, it has sponsored experimentabprograms more than a half-century by statisticians,sociologists, in these argils to evaluate in advance the effectof po- economists, p.s,v chometrichms,. and related survey spe- tential national programs Among these experiments cialists. EconOmic and social indicators, which measure have- been programs for income maintenance, health in- the performance of various sectors of societyare intel- surance, and housing subsidies. Similar researchproj- lectual inventions of the social sciences working in close ects,. on a somewhat smaller scale, have assessed pro- partnership with government and industry. grams for employ Ment training, criminalrehabilitation. The contribution of social science to public policy and preschool education. Concepts and methods from' extends well beyond techniques' of collecting statistical the social sciences have been used in designing these data. Statistical information is no better than the con- studies, in 'collecting the data, and in interpreting the cepts that guide its collection and organize its applica- results. tion. Socialcierice. is often the source of these concepts. Often there is neither time, resources, nor inclination A case in point is inforination o'n labor market behavior, to design a study relevant to a specific policy choiceIn which was reconceprualized in the 1930's and is in the such circumstances, social scientists are frequently asked process of beirfg reconceptualized again. Beforethe to review the relevrint research literature andprcivide Depression, government stattstig on the work force re- informed judgments 'bout the implications of existing fleeted the number of people with a gainful occupation findings for the Policy under consideration. This ilgSk is Using this concept, it was not possible to get a satisfac- difficult and delicate because the criteria for generalizing tory count of the number of people needing jobs. in part from such findings arg stringent. The task illustratest'he because of the exclusion from the working force of many 'importance and closeness of the relationship between occasioned workers and those entering the employ ment policy research and the development of theory and meth- market for the tirst time. To fashion policy during the ods within the social science disciplin4s. Policy scientists 1930's, the government needed a count of the total num- must combine conceptual and methodologicalskills from ber of people seeking jobs The working fore; concept a diversity of disciplines and mustorganize these re- was replaced by alloy concept,*the "labor force,"which sources,, usually within a short-time, to aorldress policy inyludel everyone in'the population above, a given age issues. Because tit; quality ofpolicy research ultimately who,liuring a specified period, actually had a job or was depends on the quality of the basic research skillsand seeking work for pay. This' cbncept has guided the col- knowledge available, the usefulness of the policy sci- lection of labor market statistics ever since. ences Will depend on thedevelopment of the s.ocial sci- Research in the 1980's suggests there is a need to ences more generally. adjust economic and demographic statistical series again.. Social science contributes further to the policy process Social scientists are flow documenting the existence and by tife ways in which it frames questions andaPprokhes 040 apparent perininence of an informal economy and 'system issues. It is not accidental that the phrase"unanticipated of production, Some estimates, for example, saggest that consequences," now kterm in evetyday vocabulary, was unrpoYied income could amount to 10 percent of the introduced by a social scientist. SoCialr6itinists are gross national product. Researct onthe informal labor trained to expett se?-and and third order consequences 4'3 ". 4 --1 Significance of Social Science Research557 of actions planned w ith other ends in view. The unin- tention on the issues which have been of deepest concern tended consequences of an .intervention in a complex to the society. system can be at odds with and even detrimental to the The story starts toward the end of the 1920:s, when intended effect. President Herbert Hoover organized large numbers of Consider the bonus system underlying American man- socialscientists in the preparation pf Recent Social agement practices Rewards are based on current profits, Trends (President's Res.earch Committee on Social which encourages a short time horizon. The bonus sys- Trends, 1933), two volumes reptrting on the many facets tem can operate, therefore, as a disincentive to long-term of society affected by World War I and, the Depression. reseal-eh and development strategies, which are presently Throughout the1930's, social science investigations needed for American industry. This perverse incentive were concerned with those topics brought to attention, is brought to our attention by economists whose intel- by the efforts Of society to deal with the Depression. lectual approach sensitizes them to look for it They have social security, internal migration, unemployment relief, now been joined by psychologist's who study choice sit- agricultural _prices, and labor market behavior. uations Psychological experiments demonstrate that risk In the 1940's, not surprisingly, social scientists were aversion rather than nsk taking is encouraged in choice pressed into government service and they turned social situations such as those presented by the bonus system science concepts and methods to war-related quest Ions. employed by many' American corporations. civilian morale, the analysis of enemy propaganastud- Other examples of unintended consequences are to be les relevant to the recruitment, training, management, found in the' many studies of government regulations and eventual discharge of the armed forces, the eft-cos conducted in the past decade. Mankof these studies have of the strategic bombing of Germany and Japan. shown that regulations may encourage rather than dis- In the 1950's, as the pre-war colonial empires aistn- ourage the behavior they are designed to control. These tegrated and the U S. became strategically and econom- tudies, widely published in social science journals, are icallyinvolved with new nations around the world, 1 n,ow playing a role in reducing the extent of government hundreds of scholars went abroad to study the cultures regulation. saw. and languages, of the newly independent nations. They Social science research does not determine policy. came back to establish university area centers and other Policy is a matter of deliberation, it is an accommodation institutions for international studies which remain to this of diverse interests and the creature of social values, it day the envy of governments and academic communities is an exercise in moral choice and political judgnient. around the world. The 1950's were also a decade of But social science can hold up a mirror to societyone expanded development of strategic studiesagain in re- which reflects the multiple dimensions of social prob- sponse to the international role which the U.S found lems, the c mplexity of the economic system, the mul- itself playing. tiplicity of 1terests and human aspirations, the strengths The domestic krmenrof the 1960's was mirrored-in and vseakne sesof institutions. Making public policy is a grow th of interest among social scientists in ram re- difficult under the best of circumstanceswhether a pro- lations, urban problems, schooling, internal migration, gram is beinginitiated, reformed, or aboliShed. as well as immigration. The 19604s were also a period Policy decisions involve a guess about what causes of broader federal involvement 'in the delivery of social people and institutions to do the things they do. Wrong programs, and social scientists were called upon to niv- guesses are costlyin wasted public resources, in public prove their survey research methods and to design tomN suffering, in missed opportunities to do the things dif- plex social policy experiments. ferently. No decision process can guarantee nght guesses, Two trends of the 1970's merit note. Largely' because But the odds are increased if the guesses are as educated of the great number of new social policies initiated.in as our understanding of human .behavior and social in- the 1960' s,pthere. w as aine,ed fewhe systematic eV al uation ,stautions allows. The social sciences attempt to make of prograins such as Headstart. Social science responded contributions to the craft of public policy-making by To the challenge by establishing specialized methods for enlarging society 's warehouse of educated guesses. evaluating the consequences and benefits of particular policy interventions. In the 1970's, there was also a a growing concern that government efforts to regul4te economic and social activities were not working as in- THE SIGNIFICANCE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE: AN tended. This concern was voiced by economists, political -OUTLOOK scientists, and sociologists, whose research was to be- An outlook or prognosis must start with an understanding come source material for the successful presidential can- of the past. The historical reeordtof social science. is didacy of Ronald Reagan. quite clear and extends over a half-centurv4the period This sketch does not pretend to be a history of the that marks the grow th of the social sciences in the United social sciences in the United States. Much w as-happening States. For over 50 years, social scicnce has focused a during the last fifty years that is not captured by the ". large share of its research resources and intellectual at- particular themes stressed. Though incomplete, the 12;4) 558 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK slIch does illustrate an imurtant truth about the public If there is to be a search for nsw social innovations,Sk role of the social sciences.11 large share of social sci- what role is there for social science? entific resources has always been devoted to the issues First, social science can increase understanding within which are of the deepest concern to the society. This has society of the social nature of many innovations. We been true whether the funding is from private sources, speak easily of the social impacts of technological'and as icts was in the early years, or from public sources, as engineering developments, but have a less certain grasp it increasingly has been in later decades. It has.been true of the technological and engineering impacts of social whether the research is conducted largely in universities innovations: We see the social consequences of the pri- or in specialized research institutes and in recent years vate automobile, primarily a technical innovation, more the mixture has tended to favor the latter.-It has been easily than we see the technical consequences of the true whether the research is labeled basic or applied. assembly line, primarily, a social innovation. And it has been equally true under Republican and Dem- Second, research can accelerate the understanding of ocratic administrations. social inventions. Here there are several obvious points, Another observation emerges from the historical all of which have begun to receive research attention. sketch. Social science never has been, and is not likely (1) Social science cannot predict the success of a par- ever to be, in. a position to create the national agenda. ticular innovation, but its theories can help to establish Far more powerful currents than social science research the boundaries within which innovations might reason- determine the issues that society will emphasize. These ably be attempted. A reindustrialization program that more powerful currents affect what social science stud- fails to take account of both the informal labor market ies. just as they affect election returns, policy reforms, and the hidden economy is no more likely to work than business decisions, mediaattention, andcitizen attitudes. a psychiatric therapy program that ignoresunconscious It is the lessons we learn from history that provide the motivation. (2) Social science can evaluate whether an basis for anticipating the future. For five decades social innovation has in fact, worked, This is important because- science, as a major part of its research activity, has failinig to detect poor innovations is costly intermsof attempted to contribute to society's capacity to under- wasted dollars and lost opportunities. For,example, re- srand and cope with its most central concerns. The n%t search on the success of recent social and medical in- decade will witness a continuation of this commitment. novtions concluded that, when put to trial, only about Specifically, we expect social science to address ques 50'percent of these innovations were successful (3) So- nons of social and.ecimomic innovation in a broad, sus- cial science can conceptualize and develop measures and tained. and serious manner. studies of social inventionthe development of new /The nation today stands in need of innovations that economic and institutional forMs, new ways of perform- will contribute to economic growth, improve the work- ing commontasks, achieving consensus, arriving at joint ings of the governing process, and release the creative decisions. (4) The factors affecting creativity And com- energies of its citizens. These innovations will spring petence are likewlse open to study. Muchnyofe should from the imaginativeness and inventiveness of individ- be known about the chal.acteristics of cultures, cultural uals working through a large number of private and-pub- contacts, societies, groups, and institutions which con- lie organizations. If successful, the innovations will do tribute to the production of innovations of a social or for the next stage of America's economic growth what, technical nature. (5) More specificall ,social science for example, the development of the modern hnsiness can conduct research on the pay-off different forms corporation did for industrial growthin'the nineteenth of research and development. Frederi Mosteller, in his century. By facilitating the pooling of resources, the 1981 presidential address to the Am man Association c(4*fization of management, and the incurring of joint for the Adoncement of Science, rev ewed the role of debt whi. minimizing individual risk, the corporation research and development in practical aances in both allowed the,kccumulation and management of resources weaponry and biomedical therapies. He fo nd that such needed to take -advantage of the economies of scale of- ,advances "require not just one innovation or break- fered by. new technologies in manufacturing and trans- Through, but a bundle of them, often as many as a port. The U.S. has benefited enormously from those dozen.' Because of this, "there is a substantial period innovations it has borrowed, such as the corporation . between a basic science innovation and its use in (initially btirrowed from Europe, then extensively de- weaponry or therapies." veloped here). This country has also produced its own. Finally, 'in some instances, social science itself will list -of impressive social innovations, ranging from the be the source of a social innovation. Examples have very general (the constitutional doctrines of federalism already been provided: econometric forecasting, sample 1 and the separation of powers) to the more specific (re- _surveys, standardized testing, demographic projections, management strategies in complex organizations, oper- . search universities, theassembly line, or pie federal withholding tax). ant conditioning, input-output matrices, man-machine Co . 'Significance of Social Science Research .559 system design, cost-benefit analysis, and many others. medicine, the improvement of statistical'measureitent, The study of social innovations will not, of course, the discussion of basic epistemological principlesare occupy all the research attention of the social sciences, noted elsewhere, in the materials prepared for the Five- just as not all social scientists worked on pepressioh- Year Outlook. But innovations will become an increas- related themes in the 1930's or on war- related issues in ingly important research theme because the social science the 1940's or became area scholars in the 1950's.,Other, research community in the 1980's, as in the previous issues that will command attentionsuch as the empha- five decades, will focus on those issues that are of most sis on transnational phenomena, the study of behavioral concern to the society and its future. REFERENCE O President's Research Committee on Social Trends, 1933 Recent.Social Trends in the United States New York. McGraw-Hill. 4 01 +. O s ;- rl Behavior and Health' David S. Krantz, David C. Glass, Richard Coritrada, andNeal E. Miller .. e' , SUMMARY < wolves the complex interaction of neural, hormonal, ancj metabolic reactions. -i SecOnd, behavior influences health' Through harmful' The study of behavior and health draws upon the research living habits and activities. Cigarette smoking ,is prob- traditions of both the biomedical and the' socialsciences. ably the most well known behavior in this categdry, " Interest in this field'has grown from the recognition that having been impliCated as a risk factor for the three many of the health problems most common in our society leading causes of death in the United Statescoronary are strongly influenced by psychological stress or by heart.disease, cancer, and,str6ke. Poor diet, lack of ex- personal habits such as cigarette smoking, diet, or levels ercise,excessive alcohol consAmption, and poor per- of physical activity. Once a disorder has develdped, son ygiene are also filled tb disease. Because-many havior is also important in treatment and recovery. Purely i of. t e ha its are influenced by the social environment biologicalexplanations of disease have not proven ad- and.ihe in c+' idual's response to it, research has focused,. ecluate to account for the development of chronic ill- on the role of lifestyks, and social gamins in tie de- nesses or why some individuals are more ,susceptible velopment otchronic disc*, and on various individual than others to particular types of disorders: and public health approaches io prevent or modify these ,. Recenl social and psychological researchon medical harmful behaviors. problems explores' basicmechanismslinking behavioral A third means by which; behavior 'affects physical and social processes to disease' states. This approach health is in the response to,,symptoms, and in patients' integrates behaviofal' science principles with biomedical reactions to, the sick role. For example, there has been Icnowledgflof the disease being studied. la great deal of researchon social mg psychological In- The mechanisms linking behavior to physical illness fluences on patients'.reactions to pain 'and illness, and fall into three broad categories. The first involves their decisions to seek medical care (e.g:, many patien . changes in tissue function brought about by direct .ex- deny symptoms and/or postpone seekineelp). Another posure to issych9social stimuli, without the intervention example of such harmful behavior is noncompliance wiElla of other external agents. An example of this is the phys- Medical pfescriptions and physicians' advice, thuslim- .,iolosical stress response which characttristically in- iting the Access of medical treatment. 561 I : 7.# O 562 SSRC.FIVE -YEAR OUTLOOK The' first portion of this essay examines research on research to elucidate underlying mechanisms linking be- the role of behavorial processes in thedevelopment and havior and health must accompany these preliminary . courseof physical illness. Emphasis is given to coronary -efforts at intervention. The identification of appropriate heart disease and high blood pressure, sinceparticular targets for change and the development of effective in- progress has been made withthese disorders. Two prom- terveTion techniques must rely op a more complete un- ising piychosocial risk factors for coronary heartdisease derstanding of these processes. 1 are psychological stress,and the Type A behavior pattn, which consists of excessive competitive drive,impa- tience, and hostility. Both'stress and Type Abell'avior INTRODUTI1N are thought to infiuenic-Thedisease process by activating - cardiovascular and humoral mectianisms.tResearchalso e social and behavioral sciences havebecomeincAis- suggests that genetic predispositions tohigh blood pres- ingly significant feet problems of physical health. These expandedieyond the one sure mg relate to over-responseof the cardiovascular .disciplines have matured and systentTo situations that involve coping wit the envi- area of Mental health far broader area called "be- ronment. Other evidence suggests that behavioral,faCtors havioral medicine, whichwhich is concerned with behavioral m y contribute to the development'ofinfectious diseases; factors In physical disease. At the same time, old dis- , sycbosomatio disorders (e.g., pepticulcer), and human ciplinary boundaries are being, erased; behavioral and cancers. A new and promising research area, psycho- biomedical scientists alike are studying 8re joint influ- . neurolinmunology, has establishedinterrelationships ence of psychosocial and biological factors ,onsomatic among the central nervous system, endrocrine, behavioral health and illnes's. and immunological responses. Disease has been viewed by Western medicine as a Effective behavioral techniques are now being used biological phenomenon, that is, a product of specific , in treatment and rehabilitation 'and forpsych6somae agents or pathogens and bodilydYstiinction. However, . this bfOmedical model has not accounted-for all illness- disdrders, pediatric and geriatric problems, andthe treat: . q mei1of9Chronic pain. Progress hasbeen made in un- states-, nor has it explainedselective susceptibility and derstanding and co trolling, pain,and a new interest in the fact that.cettain diseases occur in some people afbioadermodel of h alth particular mechanis of pain relief (e.g., the role of not in others. The need for var- `endorphinis devping. The problem of noncompli- and illness, encomPasting.psychological and so , ante with treasm prescriptions is also being addressed iables acrd their intera0on,with biological processes, has by 'current research. Furthermore the smokingproblem ben jointly recognized by the biomedica) community , has,been given considerable attention.Promising work (Engel 1977) and by`behavioral scientists (e.g., Miller, has 1)een done to prevent smoking inadolescents; and 1976; Igatarazzo, 1980), medical problemst in jboth individual therapies and media-based;technilluts" cluding,lome of .the most common in modem society .. have been used to modify the smokinghabit! (e.g., heart disease, cancer), appear to be influenaed by Cs^ "The public.policy _implications ofiesearchombehavidr behavioral and Social variables*such as habits of living (e.g., smoking, diet, eurtise)', or by' what has been and health includeincreased recognition of the impor-, epidertiiolo- ,tance of social and behavioral processesby -practitioners, termed psychosocial stress. For exarnple, health-care Klicy planners, did the biomedicalresearch gists studying lung cancer eavei'onsidered many causal .community. Since many of themajorhealthprohlehis variables, includingiieredity and ibe physical environ- haw; their roots in individualbehaviors, humane and ment (particularly air. Rollution), but the stOngesctisk t effective preventionand treatment approaches, must be factor toms out to be a behayioral variable, namely, based on the body of data derived from studyof behavior cigaretWsmoking. and heAlth. Research frontiers wbichexplore mecha- In the United States at the turn of the,,century; the nismi 'integrating social, .behavioral, andbiomedical g reatest coltributors to morbidity and mortality ware the `processeS "mist be fostered, and continued scientific 4.iqfectious diieas'es. Today,the leading causes of mor- progress rp.quires that investigatorsbe trained to integrate taltty are .chronic diseases; includitit jhe cardiovascular caused the research, skills of these oregpectivedisciplines,, disorders and cancer. These disease states are Promising research kreas'im the field of.behaviorand a confluence of social, environmental,behavioral, and health include the study of psychosocial stress andmech-'biological factors(Institualff Medicine, 1978;* anisms finking and/or preventing stressand illness; psy- Ug9AFf.E.i.,.1979a). The crucial rolelef behavioral , choneuroimmunology; techniques for enhancingMedical variables in todayls nItssi pressing healthproblemsots°' 'conipliance; and the challenge of freveningand per -'. clearly slated in the 1979 Surgeon General'S Report. on ..of the manentiy modifying health-impairing habits. Large-scale Health Promotion and Disease Prevention: ". trigs examining thp effeotis of altering health - imparting ?en leadibg causes of deathin the United.States, at -least habd on cardiovascular' disease morbidity and mortality. sevencoittd1 e4ubstantially reduced if persons at risk fs demise, tcregurrently under way. However, furtherbiobehavioral- improved just five habits: dietesmoking$ack of .. . ' . c S .3,4' -/I Behavior aft leulth563 alcohol abuse, and use of antihypertenlive medication"' PhySiological responses to stress include neural and (p. 14). . endocrine activity, which), in turn, can influenced }vide In recent years, important associations betweenpsy- range of bodily processes including metabolic rate, car... chosocial variables and physical diseaseoutcomes have diovascular and autonomic nervous system functioning, been documented. biobehavivral paradigm has emerged and altered immune reactions (Levi, 1979, Mason, km,. this work int an effort' to advance scientific under- 101). Short-term stressresponses include hormonal and standing beyond the descriptive level. In contrast toa cardioCascular reactions (e.g., increased heart-rate. blood purely correlational approach4..biobehaviordl research pressure), which may precipitate clinical disorders (e.g., explores basic,mechanisms linking behavioral processes stroke, cardiac instabilities and pain syndionies7, psy- ',to disease states. This research involves intration of 2ohosomatic syMptor)s, tic.) in predisposed ,individuals. behavioral science principl4s and methods wit If stimulation becomes pronounced,. prolonged.or re- knowledge bf the disease being studied. An example, petitive, the 'result may be chronic dysfunction in one VWis provided by recent evidence linking psychosocial fac- or more systems (e.g., gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, tors (e.0, emotional stress) to the deVelopment of car- etc.)'. , 4diOva*ulair disease Behavioral 'scientists working in this Early stress research (Selye, 1956; emphasized the area are devoting increasing attention to physiological generality or nonspecilteity of respOnses to a wide variety processes (e g., neuroendocrine activity) implicated in of stimuli, but subsequent work has recognized that the the'development of coronary heart tarsease in 'orderto link between stre5..and disease is not simple. instead, determine, how these proCesses hare influenced by beha; it depends upon tle context in which the stressful agent ioral events. occurs, how individnals appraise it, and the social sup- ports annersonal resources available (Lazarus, 1966; MECHANISMS 111VoLv,ED F. Cohen of al., 1981; Masoq, 1971). Thereare wide , individual differences in physiological responsesto stres- The processes linking behavior to physical illness of sors, which depend not only on Mological various kinds may be grouped into three broad cate- tions (Levi, 1979), but also off the individual's felt ability 4 tones,gories, .as outlined on the following pages.. . to cope with or master conditions of harm, threat,. or challenge. For eitamplestEessful e;ents (e,g., Direct Rsychophysiological Effects loss of loved ones, divorce, etc.) are inevitable through- r The'fira category involves alterations in tissue function out the life cycle,, yet only a minority of individuals via rreuroendocrine and other physiological responses to suffer-lasting adveise:effEcts. Research has shqwn that psychosocial stimuli. This mechanism encompasses bod- a Variety of social and psychological faators.(e.g,, styles ily changes without the., intervention of external agents of coping, social supports provided' by others) act to such as cigarette smoking or dietary risk factors, al- Modify or buffer the impact of stressful eventson illness -thoughthe two sets of variables may froduce interactive (Cohen et al., 1981). eefects (e.g., stress and smoking Might increase, syq- It should be emphasized tfitsince the processes in ergistically, the-risk of coronary heart disease)) this' calegor3ri nvlve functional alterations brought Central to this process is the concept-of stress: which about, in I; 1)ig, by exposure topsychosocial stimuli, ad-. k was originally described by Hans Selye (1956)_)44 note- equate scientific understanding requires a specification spcific response of the body to external demands that of mediating physiological processes (e.g., sympallienc-. are placed upon tit. According lo Selye, the stress re- adrerromedullari an-adrenOcorticar axes).It sponse proceeq. in a charaCtefistic, three-stage pattern is not enough to establish correlations between ditsease which involves. a variety 'of- .physiological, systems endpoints-aneLbehavioial variables. (neural, .horm and metabolic) in complex inter- relation -e ther. The terni "stress" is alio used 'Health:Impairing Habits and Lifestyles in a :psycliffl nse.(Cox,'1078; Lazarus, 1966) to A !second means by which behavior leads to physical refer to an inte state of the individual who is per- .illness occurs when individualS' engage in habits and ceiving threats, to physical and/or psychic well-being. styles of life that are damaging to heStth. Personal habits This broader use of the term p1Fes empha on the play a critical roje in, th% development of many serious organism's psrceptiOn and evaluation of diseases,, as- Amply documented by the recent Surgeon harmful stimuli, and tonsiders the perception of threat General's reports 'on smoking and health, and health, fo arise from a comparisOn between the demands imposed promotion and disease prevention. Cigarette .smoking is upon the individual and his felt ability to cope with these probably the most salient behavior in this category, for demandS perceived imbalance in this mechanism, it has been implicated as a risk factor for three leading gives n 7f`sei to tithe e expenence of stress and to the stress causes of 'death in the United' Stitescoronary heart response, which may be physiological and/or behavioral disease, cancer, and stroke. However, pail- diet, lack naturet of exercise, excessive alcohol consumption, and poor . 4 s 564 'SSRCFIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK ct ,. ature on behavioral and social factors in theetiology and hygienic ,praqices also have been linked to disease out- I a. comes.Th e habits maybe deeply rooted in cultural pathogenesis of selected physical diseases such as can-...... 1. practinsdi& r initiated by social influences (e.g.,smoking cer, psychosomaticdisordeis (e.g., ulcers), and infec- s, tos. obtain peer group approval). They maybe maintained tious disease; Because considerable progress has been as part of an..achievemeat-orientedlifestyle, as well as made in understanding the relationship bttween bthavior .by the interaction of biological and behavior1 mecha- and the major cardiovascular disorders (the leading cause ;,- i ., 'nisms of addictionjherefore, a maj4 focus of behav- of death in the United States), emphasis will be directed % ioral medicine research has been on the role of socio- to this area as an exemplar the biobehavioral approach, -, cultural systems, lifestyles; and psychophysiological to physical illness. Next, considerationwill be given to processes in the enotogy-and pathogenesisof the chrtinict,treatment, rehabilitation, and prevention of physicaldis- diseases. Considerable attention also has been directed ease. This discussion will not belimited to any one : toward the development of techniques to modify those disorder but, instead, will emphasize themes that have relevance to a variety of somatic illnesses. We will con- behaviors that constitute risk factors for illnesses. . IIP elude with an overview of research' directions projectgd Reactions to Illness and the Sick Role , for the next five years. A third proceSs through whiCh behavior leads toplKical 4sigi*- ) illness `occurs when individuals minimize the BEHAVIORAL FACTORS IN THEETIOLOGY cance of symptoms, delay inseeking medical care, or AND PATHOGENESIS OF PHYSICAL DISEASE fail to comply with treatment and rehabilitation regi- mens pne prominent example isthe sizable number of In 1900, the leading causes of death in the*UnitedStates heart attack patients who procrastinate in seekin,ghelp, w,ere pneumonia. influenza, andtuberculosis Changing .. thereby endangering their chances of survival. These patterns of illness since that time havebeen marked by actions are representative of a largearia of study con- the ascendancy of cardiovascular disease as thechief cerned with the way people react to the experienceof cause of mortality in thiscountry. The. cardiovascular organ dysfunction (illness behavior); aswell as to the disorders, including coronary heartdisease and high expenence-of being in the role of a sick person (patient- blood pressure, now account for more thanhalt of all hood). To succeed,. mdicip0 therapies require that the deaths. A large percentage of these would be classified patient follow the physician's advice, but anextensive as "premature," for they occurduring the middle years literature reports disturbingly low rates of compliance of 35 to 50 (National Science Foundation',1980). with health and medical care regimens, (Sackett and Haynes, 1976). Accordingly, there has been consider- ATHEROSCLEROSIS, CORONARY HEART DISEASE, AND able research on Social and psychologicalpiocesses in:, SUDDEN DEATH ' v, the de- volved in patients' reactions to pain and illness, Coronary atherosclerosis is a symptomless condition compliance. cision -to seek medical care, and medical characterized by narrowing and deterioration of the ar- interventions This research has led to the development of teries, including the coronary arteries,-that is, blood ves- that have been applied in treatment andrehabilitation' .., sels that nourish the heart. An 'excessaccumulation of settings. 4 cholesterol and related lipids forms a mound of tissue, or. atherosclerchic plaque,' on theinner wall 9f one or `OVERVIEW, more of the coronary arteries(Hurst et al., 1978). The ' The eategbries outlined above -directattention to tfie formation of atherosclerotic plaques may proceed un- range of behavioraltianabjes, acknowledged as impor- detected for years, affecting cardiac functioning only sufficient to tant factors in somatic healthand illness. Traditionally, when they cause a degree of obstruction biomedical and behavioral scientists havestudied many diminish blood- supply to the heart. Once this occurs, into coronary heart of these same problems Independentlyof one another coronary atherosclerosis has evolved and from different perspectives.In recent years, there disease (CHD). has been more interdisciplinary contactalong with a In one form of CHD, angina pectoris, occasional in- (ischemia) cause the growing audience for complexproblems of behavior and stances of;inadequate blood supply individual to experience attacks of chest pain. Although health., In a paper of this length, it isimpossible to represent ischemia per se doq not cause permanent tissue damag, serious fully,the broad spectrum of health-relatedbehavioral re- angina is a painful condition that can lead to more search. Therefore: this essay will notattenipt to discuss complications. A more 'severe and frequent fatal con- infarction (MI), or heart mental illness categories or substanceabuse disorders? sequence of CHD is myocardial except insofar as they are related tophysical disease attack, in which a prolonged state of ischemia resultsin Other manifesta- endpoints (e.g., cigarette smokingleading tocancer and death of a portion of the heart tissue. heart disease). Instead, we will considerfirst, the liter- tions of CHD include congestiveheart failure, conditions . 1'"I r 0 to Behavior and Health565 secondary to MI cc g :ventricular failure, heart rupture): of CHD through psychosocial channels suchas family and "disturbances of the conductive or beat-regulating patterns of cigarette smoking, diet, and s_skcioeconomic portion of the heart. i e.,.the arrhythmias (Hurstet Al.. condition. At feast two, implications follow, from these 1.078). a observations: (I) analysis of the etiology and pathogen- esis of coronary disease must be extended inti) the do- Standard Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease main of psychosocial factors, and (2) psychosocial fac- Individuals who are likely to develop coronary heart tors should be considered importatgo targets in the prevention and treatment of CHD. disease may be identified with a modest degree ofac- e gomasw curacy.-This is possible becaus9 a set of `;risk factors:' has been recognized in recent years. A CHD risk factor Psychosocial Risk Factors for Cbronary Disease is an attribute of the population of interest,or of the The best combinations of the standard risk factors fail environment, which appears to increase the likelihood to' identify most new cases of heart disease (Jenkins, of developing one or more of the clinical manifestations 1971). Some variable or set of variables appears to be ofitsardiovascular disease. The following risk factors missing from the predictive equation. This limitation in have been identified: (1) aging; (2)sex (being male), knowledge has led to a broadened search for influences (3) elevat d serum cholesterol and related low-density and 'mechanisms contributing to coronary risk, it n'&k, lipoprotein, (4) dietary intake of animal fats and cho- includes social indicators such as socioeconomic status lesterol; (5) high blood pressure, (6) heavy cigarette and social 'nobility, and psychological factors suchas smoking; (7) diabetes mellitus, (8) specific diseases such anxiety and neursoncism. psychological stress. and own as hypothyroidism, (9) family history Of coronary dis- patterns of behAior. The results have been encouraging, ese; (10) obesity; (11) sedentary lifestyle, and (12) spe- though not uniformly so. The two most promising psy- cific anomalies of the electfocardiogram, suchas evi-1chosocial risk factors to emerge in recent years arc psy- dence of left ventricular hypertrophy (Kannel et al., chological stress a ie Type A coronary-prone behav- .1976)., ior pattern (Jenking71971). It should be emphasizied that the predictive value of these variables is, in most cases, far from being a settled Psychological StressAs noted carnet: -Selye (1956) issue._- For example, the pathogenic influence of a sed- first popularized the notion of stress, which he defined entary Ere:style and obesity per se failed to receive em- as the body's non-specific physiological reaction to nox- pirical support in a number of investigations (Mann, ious agents or stressors. More recently. psychdlogical 1974).Early emphasis placed upon the role of dietary investigators such as Lazarus (1966) and Mason (1971) fat intake has also been challenged in recent years (Mann, have taken exception to this view. arguing that the body's 1977). Suffice it to say here that coronary disease has response varies with the pa-ular type of stressor and a multifaceted etiology that involves many of the factors the context in which the stressorccurs (Lazarus, 1966. listed abdve in varying degrees of importance. Glass and Singer, 1972). The risk-enhancing effects of the standard risk Tactors Several indices of psychological stress have been stud- have been viewed in terms of their physiological influ- ied in relation to the development of coronary disease. ence '(e.g., toxic effects of tars and nicotine, the role of Research suggests that excessive work and job respon- salt intake in rekulating blood pressure levels, the rela- sibility may enhance coronary risk, especially when they tionship between diet and serum cholesterol). No a proach the limits of the individual's capacity to control ever, that many of "these variables are dete'ned, at his work environment (Hayn'es etal..1980, least partially, by behavioral factors. For exampl, cig- 1975). Another job:related stressor that appears to4iic arette smoking is a preventable behavior undou; edly 4elated to-coronary disease is reported work dissiinsfac- brought about by psychosocial forces (Leventhal tion, such as lack of recognition by superiors, poor re- Cleary, 1980) Cultural, racial, and- social class groups lations with co-workers, and inferior work conditions differ in serum cholesterol levels, independently of di- (House,1975). .0ther life dissatisfactions, including etary practices (McDonough et al., 1965). Enhanced risk problems and conflicts in areas of finance and family, due to sex and age may also derive from non-biological have been correlated with the presence and future de- correlates of these variables, such as occupational pres- velopment of coronary disease (Haynes et al., 1980; sure, stressful life events, and behavior patterns (Eis- Medalie et al., 1973). ' limier and Wilkie, 1977; Riley and Hamburg, 1981). The experience of a single, traumatic life event has Resting blood pressure levels differ between racial long been suspeCted as a cause of clinical CHD (e.g., grqups, socioeconomic status, and cultures (Weiner, Cannon, 1942). More recently, it has been suggted 1977). Family history of coronary disease, while in some that-the cumulative effects of repeated adjustments re- cases linked to a specific genetic mechanist0e.g., Gold- quired by life changes drain the adaptive resburces of stein and Brown, 1974), may also lead to enhaneed risk the individual and increase susceptibility to a variety of 1 4. 566SSR( 1.1V1,-YI AR OUT' 00K diseases. To test this, an objective itrument-rthe Social patience, hostility, and aggressiveness. The relative ab: B, Readjustment Rating Scale (SRRS , was developedby sence of these traits Is designated as Type Holmeg and Rahe to assess the impact of such events,as The Type A concept does not.refer-skmply to the con- the death of spouse, a change to a different line ofwork. ditions that elicit Pattern A behavior, noilto the responses hypothetical personality trait that and a son or daughter leaving home (Holmes and Rahe. per se. nor to some produces them. It refers, instead, to a sad. be rors 1967). la, -Several retrospective studies have iused this technique that occur in susceptible individuals'underappropnately stressful ,and/or challenging conditjns. Pattern A is, a in an effort to link the accumulationof life events with., pertly-situation Interaction. the occurrence of coronary disease (cf.. Garrityand Marx. therefore, the outcome of a or example. survivors ofmyocardial infarction It is not a_ typology, but a behavior pattern, which is 1979); displayed in varying degrees. atone time or another, q QW azpattem increaRtd life changes during the period approximately one and one-half years before the MI, everyone. whereas healthy control subjects reported a relatively People who consistently display Type A characteris- 0 . stable. number of life events during the same period tics have long been suspected of being at greater riskfor Other research,in which information regarding'life clinical CHD (Osier, 1892). However, the major impetus events prior to sudden cardiac death wasobtained from for research validating this hypothesis comes from work initiates! by cardiologists Meyer Friedman and Ray Ro- a survivor of the deceased (usuallythe spouse). revealed investigators de; an accumulation in the intensityof life events in the 6 senman only two decades ago These months prior to death (Garrity and Marx,1979), veloped a structurecrinterview (SI.) which Constitutes the More recently, Despite replication of the foregoing findings. negative major tool for the diagnosis of Pattern A. been devel- results have been reported as well (e.g , Hinkle.19741 two self-administered questionnaires have Reviewers point to defects in the methodology of ret- oped to detect Type A behavior. rospective de.signs that might account forthedpositive Although several studies have documented an asso- convincing-A findings (Dohrenwend and Dohyonwend, 1978). How- ciation between Pattern A and CUD, the most ever. such explanations crot explainsignificant as- ei,ilielve comes from the WCGS, or Western Collabo- sociations obtaineirin prospective studies in which data rative tcoup Study (Rosenman et al.,1975). In this prospective, double-blind study, more than 3%000 ini- concerning psychosocial stressors wereobtained prior to the development of disease (e.g.,Haynes et al . 1980: tially hinny men, 39 to 59 ears of age, were assessed iLfor a comprehensive array of soctal. dietary, biochem- Mecialie et al., 1973). - The relation of stress to pathological outcomesde- \ical, clinical: and behavioral variables. An eight and pends upon both the adaptive *capacity of theindividual one-half year follow-up showed that subjects exhibiting before the stressor occurs and the resourcesmarshakid Type A behavior at the study's inceptiOn were about coronary In response to its ,pccurrence(Cohen et al., 1981).It .twice as likely as Type B individuals to devel6p follows that variables moderating the impact of stress heart disease (i.e., angina pectoris or myocardial-inf arc- when must be taken into account in order to gaugethe pre- non). This two-fold differential in risk remained dictive validity of stress as a risk factor for'coronary statistical procedures. were used to control for the-influ- cigarette smoking, disease, These moderators include Piologicalfactors ence of other risk factors such as (e.g.. genetic susceptibility, general state of health): psy- serum cholesterol, and highblood pressure. This re- chological attributes (e.g.. felt ability to cope); aspects Searc11,also has linked Pattern A to sudden cardiac death of the immediate context in which, the stressor occurs (Pritdinan et al., 1973) and recurrent MI. stressor is perceived as controllable): An eight-year follow-up of data from the Framingham (e.g.. whether the disease various sociocultural variables (e.g., amountof social Study. a large-scale' prospective study Qf heart undertaken by the National Institutes of Health, indicated support from other people and/ortire health care system); botriNiken and and factors related to the life course (e.g:, theexilect- that Pattern A is predictive Of GHD in enhanced risk edness of Avents ata certain stage of life). For example, women, although for male subjects the there is evidence that individuals who have social sup- appeared only among white-collar workers (Haynes et gl., 1980). After cowl-piling for theinfluence of the tra- ports marlive longer, have a lowerincidence of somatic I illness, and possess higher morale and morepositive ditional risk fqctors, it' was found again that Pattern A. associ- mental health (Cohen et al., 1981). 41' conferred increased- CHD risk. The prospeCtive ation of Pattern A with coronary disease in the WCGS evidence Type A Coronary-Prone Behavior Pattern the and the Framingham Study constitutes strong for the independent pathogenic influence of thebehavior most thoroughly investigatedpsychosocial risk factor for coronary disease is the Type Abehavior pattern (Ro- pattern.. senman and. Friedman, 1974). TypeA (or Pattern A) is There may be an association -betweerr Pattern A and characterized by extreme competitiveness and achieve- coronary atherosclerosis. Supporting evidence has b.en ment striving. a strong sense of time -urgencyand im-; Obtained through the use of coronary angiographic tech- Behavior and Health567 'niques that make it possible to quantify the extent of addition, by observing such changes in response to real- coronary artery disease in living patients (e.g., Blumen- life or laboratory-induced stressors, pathogenic states thal et al., 1978). In a recent study of men who under- may be detested within the context,of their psychosocial went repeated coronary angiograms, an association was antecedents. found between Pattern A auntie progression of ather- The physiological concomitants of psychological, stress, osclerosis (Krantz et al., 1979). It should be noted, how- are believed to result from activation oftHeSympathetic- ever, Oar evidence for the association between Pattern adrenal medullary system (SAM) anthemtiiitm:. A and coionalltherosclerosis is not unequivocT ii-(11717s7aarenocorticalaxis (PAC). Interest in the act of SAM dale et al., 1980). - activation on bodily reactions to emergency situations may be traced to Walter Cannon's work on the fight or Pathophysiological Mechanisms Linking Stress and Be- flight response. This neuroendocrine response apgears havior Pattern A to Coronary DiseaseIt is not enough to be elicited in situations demanding effortful coping to demonstrate a relationship between CHD risk fac- with' threatening stimuli (Frankenhaeuser, 1971).The torswhether biomedical or psychosocial. in nature-7-- homional respOnses of the PAC axis were emphasized and the occurrence of cardiovascular disease. The precise by Selye in hiS notion of a generalized physiological mechanisms mediating the association must be specified. response to aversive stimulation. The PAC secretions Although the,1athogenesis of coronacoronary disease is not include a number of hormones that influence bodily sys- completely un.erstood, several factors are believed to tems of relevance to the development of coronary dis- play a major contributing role. These include a variety ease. The corticosteroids, which include cortisol, regu- of physiological' and biochemical states which may en- latethe metabblise of cholesterol and other lipids .hance coronary risk by influencing the initiation and pro- involved in the atherosclerotic process. Activation of the gression of atherosclerosis and/or by precipitating clin- SAM_ system also niay have a special significance in ical CHD (Herd, 1978, Ross and Glomset, 1976)..Many mediating stress-related pathophysiological changes. of these physiologiCal states. have been observed in ex- Particularly culpable in this regard is secretion of the perimental studies of psychological stress. For ex mple, catecholamines, epinephrine andnorepinephrine, which hemodynamic effects such as elevated heart- r to and are believed to induce many of the pathogenic states blood. prespre, and biochemical changes suc .as in- associated with psychological stress. These include in- creased levels of serum cholesterol, are produced in an- creased blood pressure and heart rate, elevation of blood imals under prolonged or Severe stress (Schneiderman, lipids; acceleration of the rate of damage to the inner 1978). It has been:observed, in addition, that a reduction layers of the coronary arteries over time, and provocation in blood-clotting time occurs under conditions Of stress Of ventricular arrhyttunias, believed to, lead to sudden and, in some cases, degeneration of heart tissue has'been death. , , . reported;as well. Other animal research has linked lab- The same parhophysiologicalmechanisms linking oratory stressort to a lowered threshold for ventricular stress and coronary, disease may apply, ajortiori, to _arrhythmia. and( for ventricular fibrillation (e.g., Lown Type A individuals, thereby accounting, inart, for their et al., 1973), a state which leads to sudden cardiac death enhanced coronary risk. Research has s own greater unless immediate treatment is given. urinary catecholamine secretion during thworking`day Potentially pathogenic states also have been observed and greater plasma catecholamine responses tq compe- in studies of psYcholpgical stress in healthy humans. For tition and stress among Type A's compared to Type 13:s example; life stressors such as occupational pressure (Rosenman, and Friedman, 974). Recent studies by have been shown to produce biochemical changes such Glass 'et al. (1980) also have demonstrated higher ele- as elevated love's of serum cholesterol (Friedman et/al., 4ations in plasma catecholamines among Type A indi- 1058). Other research has demonstrated an association viduals in situations of hostile competition. Subjects .,4 0- of increased heart rale aucrblood pressure with stressors were led to believe they would competecfor a prize with such as the gerformance of Mental arithmetic, harass- an opponent Kwho was actually an experimentallconfed- inent, and threat of elmtric shock. Still other studies erate) on aschallenging electronic game. A and Blsubjects report that the. stresses, of automobile drivini public vTiere exposed to one of two experimental conditions. in speaking,, and discussion. of emotionally; charged topics the No Harass condition, tlt confederate remained silent Titoke ventriplararrhythmia (Herd, 1978). and siplY competed against the subject. In the Harass notable feature" of the foregoing research is the con'clifon,..the same procedure was followed withone measurement bf physiological reacOvity in response' to variat on;the conTedgra6 made a seems of pre- stress, as distinct from the observation of basal or resting , programmed remarks designedtoharass, thesubject. _levels of physiological variables. Theseshmes in fund- Throughout the Mask, blood pressure and heart-rate were tioning, which are not detected by basal risk-factor meas- measured and blood samples were drawn via an indwellingin-dwelling 00*- :urement, are to yield a better index of the path- venous. catheter. Results showed that harassment had ,- ogenic processes involved in coronary., disease. In an efft on plasma cateckolamines,*blood-dressure, and . . .1st ok P I ( 568 SSMC FIVE -YEAR OUTLOOK ( Mean rate for both types of subje9s. libwever. of those probably involve the interaction of the central and auto- harassed, Type- As showed Increased elevations of nomic nervous systems, theendocrine-hormonal.system, plasma epinephrine, systolic blood pressure and heart and the kidneys. Accordingly, behavioral factors (in par--.'"`"`' ticular, psychological stress); might play a role in the rate. These cardiovascular andneuthendocnne changes are consistent with thefindings of other investigators etiology of HBP via a numberff physiological pathways' indicating greater cardiovascular reactivity amongA's (Kaplan, 1980). Recall, that stress leads to discharge of cate- than B's in challenvnisiliations(Dembroski et al. the sympathetic-nervous system and to increases in FOTarraes. High' levels of blood and tissue catechol- 1978: Herd. 1978). amines have been found in some hypertensive humans and animals (Julius and Esler. 1975) Suchelevations' HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE could lead to increased blood pressure via Increased heart High blood presSure (also called essentialhypertension) rate and force of heart action, constrictionof peripheral hot-Mona' mecha- is a condition of unclearetiology in which Blood pressure ' blood vessels, and/or activation of a shows chronic elevations. When the disorderbecomes nism in the kidney that constricts the vasculature (Ka- developed tully. increased pressure isusually due to a plan, 1980) and regulates the volume of blood see be- constriction or contraction ofblood vessels throughout low). It should be noted that the carchovasculaN system the body (Page and McCubbin.1966). Although high has an intrinsic means of regulating blood flow, namely, blood pressure (HBP) is a symptomlessdisorder, there the constriction of blood vessels whenever blood'How Output of blood is epidemiologicevidence that even mild blood pressure is increased (autoregulation) Elevated elevations are associated with ashortening of life ex- from the heart produced by nervous system activity might pectancy ( Kannel and Dawber.1971). and increased risk also lead to pressure elevations via this mechanism. of coronary heart disease and stroke.As is the case with There has been much investigation of the role of the CHD. the causes Of HBP are believed toinvolve complex kidney in hypertension The enzyme, renin, which is interactions among genetic. socio-cultural.behavioral., r'eleased by the kidney, is involved in a physiological and physiological processes. regulatory process (the, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone mechanism), which leads the kidney to,increase water lieterogene* of thefisorder andPhysiological reabsorption and expand the volume of blood, thus rais- Mechanisms ing the pressure (Kaplan, 1980). The process of renin Essential hypertension is not a single,homogeneotis dis- release normally should be dSmpened whenever the ease. In thedevelopment of the disorder, blood pressure blood pressure is raised, but in a subcategory of indi- is thought to progress over aperiod of years from mod- viduals with HBP. level, of renin inthe blood is inap- erately elevated or "borderline"levels,to more appre- propriately high. Thus, presumably, both with or without ciably elevated levels, called"'established" hyperten- the involvement of the sympathetic nervous system, the renin-angiotensin system is an important mechanism in sion. Several pathogenicmechanisms may bring about blood pressure elevations, and differentphysiological etiology and maintenance of high blood pressure. and/or behavioral meichadisms are Implicated atvarious Genetic-Environment Interactions stages of thedisorder. For example, individuals with borderline hypertension are commonlyobserved to have The prevalence ofessential hypertension in the U S. an elevated cardiac output (I.e..amount of blood pumped usually increases with age, and below the age of 50 years by the heart). but little evidence ofincreased resistance it occurs with, less. frequency in women than in men 'prthe flow of blood in the body'svasculature (Julius and (Weiner, 1977). Evidence from animal research and Esler. 1975). As noted earlier, thisphysiological pattern studies of human twins indicates that genetic factors play (Pickering, 1967). is consistent with increasedactivation of the sympathetic a role- in the etiology of the disease nervous system, which is the body'sinitial reaction to This evidence suggests that many genes are involved in psychological stress. However, in olderindividuals with -the susceptibility to HBP, and it is likely that in humans, more established highblood pressure, cardiac output is sustained elevations in blood pressure are produced by and genetic either normal or depressed, while thevascular resistance an interaction of a variety of environmental is elev.ked. Althoughpsychological stimuli such as factors, Consider that epi emicilogical studies reveal ,a' emotionallystressful events have been shown to corre ate difference-in4e prevalenc of HBP among various social highly with the exacerbation ofhypertensive epises and cultural groups, a difference which cannot-be ac- in diagnosed patients (cf.Weiner., 1977), recent res arch counted for by genetic factors alone (Henry and Cassel, 1969). For example, in the ,United States; hypertension on behavioral influenceshas focused increasingly on / earhei. stages. rather than on the culminationof the'_is more common airtong blacks than among whites, but the prevalence of high blood pressure is greater in poor disease.' In addition to cardiovascular adjustmentsand changes,. than in middle class black Americans (Harburg et al., the physiological mechanisms of highblood pressure 1973). Animal research, described below, similarly re- 4 444. 1'8°0 a- , Behavior and Health569 vests examples where envirdnmental factors (such aS of high blood pressure in obese .patients have not been dietary salt intake or environmental stress) lead tosus- determined. In the case of obesity, recent studies have tained blood pressure elevations Only in certain genetic determined that weight loss can result in significant de- strains. Closely related to this observation is the finding creases in blood pressure (cf. Shapiro, forthcoming): As that fainily members tend to hate similar blood pies- is the case with all non-pharmacologic approaches in- sures Although the prevalent view attributes this solely volving lifestylealterations, effective treatment put-. z genetic-source,-there-4.-cmc-Fgint-ei,4deace--,Eig----eemes-deperithior only-Girproducing transitory changes gesting joint genetic and .environmental effects. Apos- in behavior, but also on the main[ nance of these changes sible environmentally-determined behavioral factor, family and sustained compliance withrescnbed regimens. We social interaction, is illustrated by a recent study which will discuss these issues more fullrin a later section of observed morenegative nonverbal behavior (e.g., gn this chapter. macing, gaze aversion) among farnilies with a hyperten- .4 sive father, compared to families with a normotensive Psychosoctal StressStres eriving from psychosocial father (Baer et al., 1980). causes is yet another factormplicated in the etiology Behavioral Foetal'''. and maintenance of high blc pressure. -As previously described, psychological stimuli that threaten theorga- SocioPultural and psychological studies of humans,in nism result in cardiovascular and endocrineresponses conjunction with animal research, have identifiedsome that can play an important role in.the development of environmental factors related to behavior that might play hypertension (Julius and Esler, 1975). The brainand a role in the initiation cif HBP These factors include central nervous system, which are involvedin determin- dietary intake ofsalt, obesity, and psychological stress ing whether situations are hacmfulor threatening, thus plaa-role :in-physiVogical thechanisms mediating the Dietary Salt IntakeMuch has been written about the impact onoxious stimuli. On a sociptal level, thereis role of salt in essential hypertension, largely because some ev,dence that blood pressure elevations occur Under excessive intake of sodium is thought to increase the conditions of rapid cultural changes andsocio-economic volume of blood However, studies indicate that high mobility. Moreover, there are many studies in which salt Vntake may b/ associatedwit ' high blood pressure vprimitive" populations living in small cohesive soci--" levels only in some culturesre andpulation groups. The eties were found to have low bloodipressure that didnot relationship between salt intake and HBP appears to be increase with age. When members of such societies Complex, and intake may r suit in sustained blood migrated to areas where theywere suddenly exposed to pressure elevations only in ge etically predisposed in- Western culture ,-they were found to have high levels of dividuals For example, Dahl and co-workers "(Dahlet blood pressure that increased with age. This suggested al,1962) found that there are salt- sensitive and salt- some cumulative effect of the new living conditions that resistant strains, of rats: more recently, studies of in- became evidpnt over the course of the life .. span (Henry creased sodium intake in humans have noted that mild and Cassel, 1969). hypertensive patients can be divided into groups thatare Whereas such studies4an attemptto rule out con- differentially sensitive to increased salt intake (Kawasaki.. founding factors, (e.g., diet, sanitation, etc.) byusing et al., 1978). , , - s. carefully matched control groups and by employingsta- Research also suggests thaveduction in sodium intake tistical' control- techniques,"there are inherent11 ts to can result in decreased blood pressure (Shapiro, forth- conclusions that can be reached fromcorr al re- boming) Evidence that decreasing sodium intake in the. search. Experimental techniques for ipdtctng HBPin diet will .lower blood pressure in humans- derives fr'om analnals offer the ability to control bothgenetic and en- several sources: from studies showing the effectiveness virO:nmental f ctors by Manipulating separatevariables of diuretic (sodium and fluid excreting) me'dication; from relevant to tecourse of, this disorder (Campbell and studies de0onstrating that drastic sodium restrictioncan Henry, forth oming).Accordingly, vanous animal models measurably lower, blood pressure (cf., Shapiro, forth- of experimental high bloodpressure indicate that the coming); and, con ersely, from studies indicating ttrat brain participates atsome stage or another, inthe devel-, healthy persons pq cm high sodm diets7showpressure opment or maintenance of increased.blood pressure lev- increases. At pr ent we do not fully understand the els,. The role of stress in the etioi6gy of hypertensionis human craving for silt intake in excess of physiological supported by experimental studies demonstratingthat needs, but evidence suggests that.i.0 maiy, in part, be a Sustained and chronic blood,pressure elevations can be habit that is learned. ., .. . produced in animals exposed,., to environmentalevents '' ., `-\ such as fear of shock, social' isolation followed by crowd- Obesity !`OLsity, is another cultur'al andbehavioral phe- ing., and experimentally produced conflict (cf. Campbell nomenon t plays an important role in hypertension, and Henry,, fortlic,' ohiing). Studies have also shown that although the precise reasons for.the Higher prevalence animals placed on learningschedules that reward them , . 4 570 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK of young male patients with HBP (namely, those with for conditions in which blood pressure remainselevated mild pressure eleVations and high'plasma renin levels) display sustained' blood pressureelevations. Thus, there displayed both elevations in sympathetic nervous system, is the possibtlity that learning andconditioning processes might be involved in the development of tlft hypertensive' activity and higher levels of suppressed hostility (Esler linked to state. In accord pith our earlierdiscussion of genetic-,. et al., 1977), a behayitiral trait independently cavity These - results -might 1 1 I II I I be explained by suppressed hostility .leading to,blood strains of animalsat are genetically susceptible to hy- pressure elevations, by increased 'nervous systemactivity, pertensio susceptible to stress-included pressure .. elevations, Dahl, Fnedman and their co-workers (e.g.,c as the initialevent, or by some other underlyjng factor. Fnedman and Dahl, 1975) identified I genetic strain of This issue may lo' resolved with further studies of fam- rats that develops severe HBP ifexcess salt.is ingested. ilies of patients with HBP and thsocial interaction pat- personality de- While on a low salt diet these rats were subjected to, an terns that could have a bearing on the experimental treatment (called approach-avoidance con- velopment of 9ffspring, or with animal research which i with the flict) which involved punishment for bar-pressing re---looks at behavioral characteristics associated sponseS necessary to obtain food. Other rats ofthe same development of high blood pressure in susceptible genetically - susceptible strai1were yoked to these 'rats strains. . shock but . 4 and received the same amo nt of food and Behavioral-Cardiac Interactions were not subjected to conflict; stillothers served as con- veils; receiving no shock but having free access tofood. Experimental work has sought to identify individuals types of Results indicated that those rats exposed to the punished- who are at risk of developing HBP, and the eating conflict generally exhibited thehighest mean situations which might activate genetic predispositions is to understand blood pressures, followed by those given shockwithout to high blood pressure. Since the aim conflict and also food depnved. Furthermore, in arelated mechanisms in the cause of the disorder, research has stasejather than study-Fnedman and lwai (1976) showed that agenetic focused increasingly on tjilialeginning strain not susceptible to salt-induced'HBP did not de- the culmination; of the disease. Given that borderline high blooVressure ischarac: velop pressure elevations when subjectedtd this same . terized by heightened responsiveness of the cardiovas- , food-shock conflict-situation. totpsychological Associations between emotional and behpioralstim- cular and sympathetic nervous systems uli and the development and/ormaintenance of high stimuli such as mental stress (Julius and Esler, 1975), recent research has examined the tendencytoward large - blood pressurereceive additional support from human episodic or acute, increases in heart rate, blood pressure, studies indicating that techniques such asbiofeedback . and relaxation training can be used tomodify the stress- and sympathetic,, nervous system hormonal (catechol- induced components of high blood pressure(Shapiro, amine) activity as possible mechanisms involved in etiol- (Manuck and Schae;, forthcoming). These techniques, to be discussed inmore ogy. Several groups of investigators fer, 1978; Obrist, 1981)', have found thatcardiovascular' derail in a later section, arb designed tocounteractp?est respbnsiveness- is a stable and persistently evoked. re- Sure-increasing stimuli 'that-operate through thecentral sponse that can be measured reliablyin a laboaatory . and autonomic nervous systems. - situation. Cardiovasculai responsiveness to certain psy- chological stimuli has also been related consistently to Personality CorrelatesThe fraditionar psychosomatic approach to HBP proposed that one'semotional dispcs' family history Of high,, blood pressure (a hypertension sitions or personality traits play a causalrole in the de-. risk factor), even_ among individuals who have normal. resting blood pressure levels and display no overt signs velopment o&chronic byod pressure elevations(Harrell; 19S0). The individual susceptible to HBPhas been de- of the disorder (Obrist, 1981; Falkner' et al., 1979). For example, in one representative study (Falkner et al., scribed as one with inhibited and poorlyexpressed anger (supressed hostility), and it has beensuggested thakin- 1979), adolescents with normal blood pressure aild at hibited anger expresses itself in stimulation ofthe mho- ,.least one parent with HBP displayed greater diastolic nomic nervous system leading to attrteand eventually .-blood pressure, heart-rate, and plasma catectiolamine compared chronicHBP. However; although emotional'states such responses to a stressful mental arithmetic task to a control group of adolescentswith no family history _ is angesdo lead-to cardiovascularadjustments resem- 4 ( tr Wing HBP; and although identifiable traitshave been of HIP: 1981) report that observed in patients with high bloodpressure (Weiner, Obrist and his co-workers (Obrist, hypertensive per- .cardiOascular responsiveness above the level_thatis ef- -1977), on balance, the search Tor a results from sit-. sbnality has not yielded conclusiveresults. Patientg with ficient for the body's metabblic needs adjustments high blood presstire are not homogenousin tarps of , uations where active coping or behavioral required. In actii,e,Coping situations, the organism either, physiological or psychologicalcharacteristics. A are tries to exert some behavioral .control over astimulus. recent study showedconvincinglythat 30% of a sample , I , .. - 1SZ Behavior and Health 571, By contrast. sympathetically-mediated cardiovascular asthma, and rheumatoid arthritis. We will discuss peptic responses do not seem to be elicited in similar intensity ulcer as a representative disordar in this category. or kind to other stressors (e.g', a stressful film), where A peptic ulcer is a lesion or sore in the lining of the the individual remains passive and does,not take direct stomach or the. duodenum, the upper part o1he small A action to /attempt to control the situation This 'concept intestine .that lies immediately below the stomach. A of active coping may underlie tnose psychosocial con- basic problem with the term "peptic ulcer" is imprecise ditions (g., rapid cultural change, socioeconomic mo- definition, for it is used to include both gastric- and duo- bility) shown by epidemiologic research to be associated denal ulcet These two forms have certain common char- with blood pressure elevations_ in some humanopula- acteristics7rout also significant differences, For example, tions (e.g., Henry and Cassel, 1969)... duodenal ulcer is usually associated with an increase in By what, physiological mectifinisms might active c gastric secretion of Ilydroctitonc acid and therstomach ing and The resulting periodic increases in sympathetic enzyme, pepsin, whereas gastric ulcer is not necessarily nervous system activity lead to chronic blood pressure characterized in this manner. Indeed, clinicians view elevations') Research employing sophisticated pharma! gastric and duodenal ulcers as separate disorders, asso- cological manipulations (such as the administration of ciate/ with different ptedisposing and initiating mech- ,dn.Ags that selectively block the action of certain neurons) anisms (Weiner, 1977). .Thus, the general term ":peptic reveals that active coping with stress can alter,regulatory ulcercan misleading, for it is not one disease. Dif-W nrechanisms involving two physiological processes. In ferences 1 ,anatomical (ovation, natural histbry, patho- one, th'eheart pumps excessive amounts of blood, and physi.ology.. syniptoms, and response to treatment pro- in the other, the kidney reabsorbs ex essive a'mounts of duce considerable heterogeneityMoreover, ulcers are sodium witha 'resultant intrease tte volume,of blood sometimes "quiet" in the sense that they cause no dis- (Obnst, 1981) In a series of anini.1 studies, stress de- c.o mfort,.remaining unnoticed. Thus, the researcher in- creased water excretion to an e exceeding the met- '1, estigating this 4isorder in symptomatic humansis not abolic needs of the organismlb brist, r981), and exalt:- studying a population representative of all those who ertiated or precipitated high blood' pressure in animals have the disease. with impaired kidney function (Harrell, 1980)1 Studies .,.. of humans exposed to various stressors Obrist, itIrtysiologicul Mechanisms 1981), revealed that active coping is specifically as,sci- / elated with a pattern Of caidiov ascular response resulting Although new evidence' about the physiological mech- in increased cardiac output. Further research employing anisrhs involved, in the pathogenesis of 'ulceration has selective blocking drugs with humans confirmed that developed in recent years. the disease processes are still these cardiovsscular changes resulted from:increased poorly understpod 'it seems clear thathe secretion of activity of the, sympathetic neryou'S systern. acid and pepsin by the stomach is important. HYdro-, In sum, these studies represent several approaches chloric acid is continually being secreted into 'the stom- currently being used by social and behavioral scientists ach. even 4clurini sleep. and the secretion rate can be to understand the etiology of high blood pressure. They markedly increased by a variety of environmental stim- represent an attempt to move from the syniptomzonented uli, including smell, taste, sight. or even the thought of and purely descnpfive level to a focus on mechanisnis. food-(Weiner, 1i,77) Pepsin. produced in the stomach, These early findings serve to justify further expenment;, is art important enzyme involved in the digestion of pro- longitudinal, and naturalistic studies. teins. In about50% of patients with active duodenal (. uler 'disease, elevated resting secretions of these two .. substances can be observed. , ? PSYCHOSOMATIC DISEASES THE EXAMPLE OF PEPTIC ULCER .4)44 Release of.pepsin and gastric acid are at least in part, la 4iider the control of'the -central nervous system, panic- While there is evidence that a variety of phy.sitqr arlthe vagus nerve which increases stomach motility` -, ordeis are,' to some degree, caused or exacerbated by and secretion. However, these substances are also under psychologic.al or- emotional, factors, the terms "psycho- thscomplexPcontrol of 'a variety of ()flierhormones pro - somatic" or 'Ipsychophysiological" refer to those whys- duced in the-stomach, pancreas. and kidney (Weiner,' ical conditions that appear-so befinitiated primarily by,. 1977). Both stimulation and destruction of selectivesites psychological factors (American Psychiatric As soc i a- of the brain can produce lesions of the stOmach,,,and/or tiorr, 1968)It should be noted that these conditions duodenum (Brooks, 1967). Thereis little clustion that involve actual organ pathology, often due to activity of 4'.central'neural processes.can be critical n the regulation the autonomic nervous system initiated byArchosocial of gastrit secretion and the prOduc.tion of sometyp&of -siimulf Common examples ornhysial conditions that ulceration in both animals and humans. Whether 0-not e"may be subsumed under t ?I categoroi include, but are these processes are active in the,development of chronic not limited' to, tension and migraineheadache, plcersi. ulcerativ in humans is less clear, largely becausewe , of, . 572SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK lack biomedical knowledge of the precise physiologyof Human Studies . ulcer disease. Much of the research investigating the relationship be- tween psychological variables and peptic ulcer disease Animal Research in humans is confounded by methodological problems. Gastric le-STOMCan be produced inanimals by a These include uncertain diagnosticcritetia-,difficultres wide .range of manipulations, includingrestraint - in psychophysiological measurement of gastrointestinal immobilization, stressful conditioning techniques,and function, problems in selection of appropriate study pop- conflict situations, as well as food deprivation and pain- ulations (e.g., hospitalized vs. nonhospitalized patients, ful sensory stimulation (Weiner, 1977).It should be length of illness, etc.), and inappropriate control groups. noted that such lesions in animals are different in a num- Moreover, there have been few longitudinal studies in ber of ways from human ulcers, and thereforeinferences this/If-ea, so it is difficult to determine whether psycho- to human disease from this workshould, be made with logical variables preceded or followed illness. ever- caution. uN theless, there is evidence from human research that Studies with rats demonsdrite.,..thai prior experience, psychological factors (including stress) bear at least ten- ,particularly early in life, affects individuallsusceptibility tative relati8hships to the regulation ofcgastric secre- to ulceration. For example, rats,handled early in life tion ,ancl to the initiation and/or precipitation of ulcer were less likely to develop stomachlesions when im- symptomatology. ' mobilized than those who were not handled.However, Classic studies of patients with openings to the stom- rat pups separated prematurely'from their mothers are ach (gastric fistulae) revioled a remarkable covariation more susceptible to gastnclesions (cf. Weiner, 1977). between stomach secretions and a variety of emotional The age and genetic strain of ananimal also affect its states sucas anger, resentment, and depression (Wolf susceptibility to restraint-induced lesions' Inaddition, and Wolff, 1947). The traditional psychosomatic ap- within a particulai- strain, susceptibility to ulcers seems proach (Alexander, 1950) proposed that ulcer. patients to be related to individual vananonsin serum pepsino- were characterized by a specific set oftraitsnamely, gen, a substance released underneural influences (Wei- conflicts over dependency needswhich led to neural ner, 1977) and converted to pepsin. activation, and increased gastric secretions mediated by A series of experiments by Weiss.(1972)imployed the yagus nerve, Bvidence bearing on this hypothesis is behayioral techniqueS to demonstrate the roleof psy- inconsistent, but at least one prthpective studyof tailkees, chi?logipal.stresS in the-production of stomach lesioni. ror'the military foUnd that those-who were hypersecretors These studies equated thestrength:duration, and fre- of pepsinogen, an inherited risk factor for ulcers, could quency of electric shock by.usingpairs of rats with elec be identified on the basis of psychometric jesting. trodes on their tails wired together in series.One member There have also been studies of individuals in stressful of the pair was given a signalthai enabled it to predict environments and occupations (Wolf et al., 1979). Recall the onset.of shock and determine when it wassafe; the that these situations are associated with cardiovascular other animal received a signal at random.The animal disorders, including CHp and high blood pressure. Cobb able to pFedict shock occurrence developedconsiderably and co-workers found that peptic ulcer was nearly twice fewer stomach ulcers.than the other animal'sFurthermore, as prevalent among air. trafficControllers than among a If the rat had available a simplif coping response sothat matched control group in another occupation. In this It could learn to control the shock,it devekFed fewer study, the prevalence of ulcers was higher among work- stomach' lesions than its helpless partner whoreceived ers in high stress, cocod to dlower stress eontrol exactly the same shocks without the'ability; to control towers. In addition, there isvklence,' which has been ...them.' By contrast, if the coping responseinvolved con- confirmed 'repeaedly, of a higherprevalence of peptic' flict, so that the rat had to take a brief shock to escape ulcer disease -in men who have supervisoryl'oles (i.e., a longer ()tie, the results were'reversed. fomen) as compared to executives and craftsmen (0., These studies demonstratethe role ofpsychological -Wolf et al., )979). (:. variables (e.ge, controllability of shock,conflict), as Predispositions fdrpecific Disorders distinguished/from the physicalintensity of noxious stim- ulation (held constant for .all animals in the research4, The field OT.psyshosomatic research has prdvitledmed- in the experimentalproduction of lesions. 'Moreovei, icine with a basis for predicting who might be at risk for there was evidence in this researchthat individual dif- a specific illness, as well as knowledge ofthe ionditions ferences in the animals' behavioral responses to unpre- under which the predispose4individual is most likely dictable shock Were related to legion development.Under to develop such a disorder. At one time,psychosomatics conditions of uncertainty, those animals thatmade many over-emphasized the role of differences or efforts to cope vith noxious stimulationby actively dispositions, Without taking intointo account 4e physiolog- trying to avoid shocks were most ulcer-prone.. ical, genetic, and situational ?actors that interact in pre- / fir a Behavior and Health573 disposing an individual to a particular illness (cf. Weiner, transformed cells and elnninating them before a detect- 1977). Today, thg perspective has changed. andre- able tumor can result.. - searchers ha've become aware of genetically and envi- The known risk factors for cancer include a variety ronmentally-determined physiologic response patterns of environmental agents, such as tobacco, X- and UV- -that might predispose particular Individuals to one dis- radiation, alcohol, viruses, drugs, asbestds, andmany order rather than another. (This is commonly referred chMicals. Personal attributes, including genetic predis- to as the "specificity problem"). For example, studies posiiions, congenital.defects, precancerous lesions, and have shown that individuals differ in secretion ofpep- aging, have also been implicated (Fraumeni, 1975). To- sinogen, and also that the tendency to secrete this sub- baceo is the exogenous substance for which data dem- stance related to ulcer susceptibility maybe genetically 4.onstrate a, strong associat0,with cancer: smoking in- transmitted (Weiner, 1977). creases the risk of lung cancer about 10-fold, increasing It should be emphasized that a singlpredisposing with duration of smoking and number of cigarettes factor may not be enough to result in p ysical disease. smoked per day (U.S.DOILI.E.W.. 1979b). In addition, A variety of activating situations are necessary topro- tobacco use cnhances the effect other carcinogens. duce organ dysfunctiqn. This is amply demonstrated\by For example, exposure tt) asbes carries some nsk to studies of gene-environment interactions in the etiology non-smokers; however, this is oflow order of mag- of high blood pressure and ulcers; it is also shown by nitude compared to the risks experienced by cigarette the Importance of environmental challenge and/or stress smokers, It has been estimated that asbestos workers in activating Type A behavior Further investigation of who smoked cigarettes had eight times the lung cancer factors leading to the eApression of predispositions for risk of smokers without this occupational exposure specific disorders should contribute/ to bash knoWledge (U.S.D.H.E.W., 1979a). This is 92 times the ysk of Concerning rhechanisms of mind-body interaction and non-smokers who did not work with asbestos. provide _greater understanding of physiological disease While cigarette smoking represents a specic behavior processes. with known pathogenic consequences, three other classes - t of psychological variables have been suspectedas risk .4' GAXtER factors for cancer: (1) stressfultlife events, particularly -I those .involving 1s (e.g.. bereavement): (2) lack of Cancer is The second leading cause of death in the United .cldseness to parents. and (3) inability toexpress emo, 6 States, accounting for aboin 20% of the overall mortality lions. especially negative ones (Fox. 1978: Schmale, ., rate, or nearly 400,0t10 deaths annuallyDespite im- 1981). Thejesearch designs used in most of these studies provemepts in rate of cure, total cancer mortality has are retrospective. Vanous methodological flaws tend to risen substantially over the past several decades. This cender their resultss suggestive only. ( may be attributable. in part, to the growing proportitn, In a prospective st dy unique to this'area. psychosocial of older people in the population, since the risk of de- data were obtained from 913 male medical students at ,veloping cancer increases with age. Another reason for ...... the Johns Hopkins University long before the clinical increased mortality is the dramatic rise in the incidence appearance of disease (Thomas et al., 1979). A follow- of lung 'cancer cancer of the lung is the leadingcause up showed that 20 of the Omen developed cancer over the of death from cancer among men (U.S.D.H.E.W.: next '10 to 15 yeais. These men had reported a lack or -. 1979a; National Sc'ce Foundation. 1980), and may closeness to parents on a Family Attitude Questionnaire soon have a similac bious distinction for women.. '`taken at the inception of the study7Scores on thismeasure Cancers are not a single disease, instead,the term is distinguished the future cancer victimsfrom both the used for more than 100 conditions characterized by unre- subjects who were toremain healthy and those who de- strained multiplication ,of cells and abnormal forms- of 'eloped high blood pressure or myocardial in§arction. cell growth (Fraumeni. 1975). One significant attribute However, even this study may In criticized for itssta- of cancers is their ability to spread beyond the site of .fistical methodology. Many 1,,riables were measured and origin They may, invade neighboring tissue by direct only a few yielded significant differences. Moreover,. extension, or dissemirlateto more remote locationt, there was a failure to control foc known cancer nsk , through ibe blood stream or through the lymphatic sy's- factors such as smoking. Replications of these findings tem, which co trots fluid trarzport between SOdy tissues. are required before premorbid psychological character- It is ,believed aksome or all cancers arise from a single. istics can be accepted as risk factors for humancancers. I abnormal or transformed tend triggefed in 'different ways A related area holding some promise concerns the to produce unrestrained multiplication (Levi, 1979). A relationship of psychological factors to cancer growth / complementary view' is thatnancer cells multiply arid` and progression. This research is a subset 'ofa larger spread when a breakdowA occurs in a portion of the area of study dealing with determatints of successful c i immune system that performs the function of recognizing coping with chro,nit illness (e.g.:Hamburg et al., 1980; / e . r fr 374 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK Krantz, 1980). Clinicians have often commented on the the immune system (Amkraut and Solomon, 1927) This psychological differences between those cancer patients suggests that the direction ofstress- effects ohe im- who dowell or survive longer and those who do poorly mune systemthat is, whetherimmunocompetence is or succumb rapidly to the disease.ChaMcteristics such enhanced or depressedmay depend on the level of as low denial, depression.aneinxiety have been related stress experienced, and resultant changes in hormonal to poor cancer prognosis, and theexperience of emo- levels. . tional Stress has been observed in patients some months The exploration of psychosocial influences on immune prior to relapse after long remisswn periods(cf. Mille" function constitstes an important area of biomedical re-. and Spratt, 1979). search withimplicationsfor understanding cancer, as Research attempt g to link psychosocial variables to well as a variety of infectious diseases (see below) Fur- cancer may be cntiEzed for lacking atheoretical basis. ther psychoneuroimmunological investigation is needed Except for vague reference to the possibility that emo- to isolate the variablesthat moderate the impact of stress tional stress may decrease bodily resistance tomalignant qn immunologicactiyity. There is also thepossibility growth, little attention has beecn given:to the pathophys- that certain groups of individuals (e.g , the elderly) may iologioal mechanisms underlying an association between be particularly susceptible to psychosocially-induced al- psychosocialvanables -and the development of cancer. terations in immune response This might occutt because However, experimental work has now provided the of docunfented changes in the immune system (Maki- groundwork for an. investigation of such mechanisms: donan and Yunis, 1977), or because of psychdocial Advanced techniques for 'measuringimmunologicgr,changes. such as decreased financial security and reduced functions show amt. rather than existing as an autono- mobility (Eisdorfer and Wilke, 1977) that accompany mous defense.agency, the immune system isintegrated aging. with other physiologic processes. Moreover, it issubjk to the influence of the central nervoussystem and en- INEECTIOUS DISEASES docrine responses that accompany psychological stress. Exposure to contagious microorganisms does not invar- A new. interdisciplinary Qysearch area,psychoneu- roimmunolod. examines the interrelationships among iably lead to disease. In fact, only a small percentage of infected persons actually become ill during disease central nervous system. endocrine,behavioral, and im- epidemics. There is evidence. that psychosocial factors munologic processes (Ader. 1981). Forexample. labo- can influence the acquisition, course, andrecovery_from ratory_ stressors tend to decreasethe responsiveness of infectious diseases via at least three mechanisms. These the immune system in animals. andstress-responsive mechanisms parallel the processes linking behavior and hormones, ,including corticosteroids. canalter. directly and indirectly, components of theimmune response physical illness outlined in the Introduction. (Ader, 1981; Amkraut and Solomon,1977). Anirrial and natural- human studies demohstrate that laboratory and Health-Impairing Habits and Lifestyles- istic stressors can reduce the numberof lymphoCytes (cells important in the immune process),lower the level An individual's behavior can influence exposure to in- fection and the dose of pathogen. Poor nutrition and/or oP interferOn (a substance which may preventthe spread poor personal hygiene obviously increase illness suscep- bf cancer), and cause damage inimmunologically-related tibility and delay recovery. In this regard. various be- tissue (Ader. 1981). socioeconomic sta-. - Of particular relevance to cancer are otherstudies dem- havioral and social factors (e.g., low -onstrating that_stress can inhibitthe body's. defenses tus) are associated With increased incidence of infectious illness. Individuals in these categories are more likely against malignancy. ForexanipleeRiley (1975) reported markedly different latencies for mammary tumordevel- to be exposed to harmful microorganisms, suffer from know.n health hazards at home and work, and have poor opment as a function of stress exposurein mice injected Those animals housed' training in prudent'. healthy ways of living. They may with a virus that induces tumors. vs' under conditions of chronic environmental stress.(e,g.. also have less access to quality medical care and are less crowding. noise) develdped tumors with a'median la- likely to engage in, preirentiye health practices (Institute tency of 358 days, compared to alatency of 566 day*of Medicine, 1978). e in animals housed under protectiveconditions. Direct Psychophysiological effects on Immunity (t should he emphasized chat therelationship between As noted in the section tin cancer,, there is evidence that stress and the immune .systemis by no means a simple psychosocial factors affect the functioning of the immune one. Under certain conditions,ezihancett tmmuaity and increaseesuscoptibilitY to immu- increased resistance to cancers, in response tostressors system. This leads td nologically-mediated diseases, and increaed expression have been reported. Apprqpnatelevels of hormones of the disease among those viho are infected. Biobehav- (e.g., corticost leased under stressful cdnditions 'are essential for ormal developrpent andfunctioning Of iorat research has specified certain immunologic changes 6 S - Behavior and Heath -575 I (e.g ,reduced production or level of antibodies)* that infected each year with the vims, and one-quarter:of this mediate these relationships. group went onto develop the clinical disease. Psycho- With regard to infections, the immune system can be social factors that increased the nsk of clinical disease divided into three functional components. processes In ''among having high level of in transporting the invading microorganisms to motivation, doing poorly academically, and having the immune system; processes leadinto the production "overachieving" .fathers. of antibodies or immunologically active cells; Sndliroc- 4 esses involving interaction between immunologically Behavioral Reactions to Illnes-s -active substances and invading microorganisms. Neu- A third process linking behavior to the course of.ififec- rohumoral factors can influence each of ktlaese immune tious illness involves treatment-seeking behavior and re- mechanisms ( Amkraut and Solomon, 1977).. As with sponse to treatment. For example, a study of 110h/duals cancer, stress-related influences on susceptibilityto in- in Maryland who had contracted Asian influenza dunng fectious disease depend upon a complex of factors. These 1957-1958 revealed that clinical disease charactenstics include thetype of stress, type and number of invading (e.g., serological 'response, height of fever, symptom microorganisms, mode of infection (e.g.. air, contact. -severity)failedto distinguish those who recovered bloodstream); and the species of animal and its immu- quickly from those who retained symptottls for longer nologic state at the tim'of inoculation (Ader. 1981, periods of time. However. subjects with delayed recov- Amkraut and Solomon, 1977). , ery scored as more "depreson prone" on psychological Psychoneuroirnmunological research with animals has tests given in advance of the outbreak of illness. This demonstrated that behav Oral conditioning w ith noxious finding was interpreted to indicate that depression -prone stimuli increases susceptibility to viral infections In one individualg exhibit greater conevn -over illness, which study. neither exposure to a stressor nor inoculations increased and prolonged their plistcal complaints and with a virus was alone sufficient to induce disease in reports of illness. A prospective follow -up study meas- adult mice, but the combination of stress and inoculation ured actual frequency of infectioii via assays for nses in with a virus elicited symptoms of viral disease (Friedman serum antibody titers. Among those who were infected, and Glasgow, 1966)In other studies, rats handled for depression-prone subjects tended to develop the disease brief periods of time early in' life shoWed more vigorous (thus suggesting a possible role of immunologic factors), antibody respdnse to bacteria than did non-handled con- but increased concern over the illness seems the most trols ( Amkraut and Solomon,. 1977). The impact of psy likely explanation' for these findings (Cluff et,a1.. 1966) chosocial stimulation on the immune response appears , to be related to the dose of pathogen administered, as well as to the timing of exposure to'the stresor (Amkraut TREATMENT AND REHABILITATION OF and Solomon, 1977). PHYSICAL ILLNESS Inlhumans, much of the evidence linking psychosocial sties to increased susceptibility to infectious diseases is denved from retrospective clinical studies, although THE PROSPECTIVE.I'ATIENT AND THE MEDICAL ENCOUNTER there has been some promising prospective research. For example, Meyer and Haggerty (1962) studied the influ- The provision ok medical care depends. to a verycon- ence of family crises on factors that might modify sus- siderable extent. on the social, psychological, and cul- ceptibility td streptococcal disease. In'subjedts observed tural processes that lead people to define themselvesas -over a one-year-period, each family member was fol- requiring cafe (Mechanic, 1968). Many factors unrelated lowed with periodic throat cultures and measures of im- to the biological severity of illness combine to determine munologic function. Clinical ratings of chronic stress wild receives care, persons requiring medical attention were positively related to streptococcal illness rate and do-not always seek out medical help and are not always ( levels of streptococcal antibodies in the blood. While seen by. health care providers. These vanable§ must be close contact with infected family membls and the sea- considered by practitioners and policy planners in the son of the year influenced acquisition of a streptococcal -formulation and delivery of health care services. organism, several respiratory illnesseswere considerably Recognition of symptoms and resultant use of health more frequent after family episodes judged to be care services are influenced by situational factors, such stressful. as life difficulties and psychological stress (Mechanic, A prospective study of infectious mononucleoSis (Kas1 1968). Also important are learned patterns of behavior et al.: 1979) studied a class of military cadetsa pop- such as social 1-olts and cultural norms; for example, ttlation subjected to the rigors of military training and females are more likely than males to visit health care academic pressure Amdng subjects susceptible to in- professionals. Social class and cultural backgroundin- fectious mono,nucleosis (i e, those without Epstein -Barr fluence patients' -evaluations of symptoms end doctors' ime virus antibodies at matrichlation), about one-fifth_ hPr responses to patients' Complaints. Age p another factor +a a- * 0 ,* IQ 576SSRCFivE-YEAR OUTLOOK 32 o ,that determines reactions to symptoms and use of medical changes, a physiological level,for example; signifi- facilities; for example, the elderly take aches and pains cant blood pressure reditctions amongpediSns with HBP` for gran'ted and place little faith in medical science, even (Shapiro, fcirthcbming)'. -t vana 1 es that en ance t e effechveness concern with health incrlase with age (Riley and Foner, of placebos have been identified4herAbyAltedIng light 1'968). " on the mec isms.of placebo action in pain-relief. Per-, son-center d proaches .ainled,,catidentifying patients PSYCHOLOGICAL ANb PHYSIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF PAIN responsive to placebos have-not c coven laluablt. 113w-, AND ILLNESS e(ter,- there is, ev.idence that situational factors, which , _ Much progress has been made in 'identifying socio- fsmotivational and, intentional' proc- infltience a Patient 'I. P psychological correlates of pain and psychopliysio- esses: as well as*,A,bost' of variables firaring to doctor- ? , .. . I. logicl. pain Mechanisms, and in developing research pak,tent interaction (e.g.,--expectation er rthef, ille.pa- .. ... based techniques for 'pain control. Pain is more than a tidies' confidence in the physician anel.the, prOcedures) ' , sec sory experience, it is not a necessary eon"sequefice of can heighten placebo effects(Stapito, 1971). Redaction injury or tissue damage. Definitions that imply that pam of stress 'andlaaxiety also seerns to be an important facet . an be stopped simply by interrupting neural pathways of placebaeftectiveness (Beecher, 1954. It is ike43 that ... ' t are not adequate to account forClinically-related phe- placebo-related.(actors, when ryllyiundelttood.St iel prct-.. ,9 , .. nomena. For example, surgical interventions indicate a ,,,.vide a powerful tool in- chnic-al-prastlee. rather disappointing record of success (Weisenberg, ..:%t .. r 1977). People without known organic pathology suffer Psyc-hophysiotogial Models pain (Fordyce, 1976), and even when an organic basis the influen' nal "gata.control''' theor5of pain was pro- for pain is established, psychological factors,Aontinue posed 15 years" 'ago4(Melzack and Wall,- 19(x1) in order to affect the experie\-Ice of pain to integrate physiological and .psycNlogical f4clicrs in ., - A range of cultural, socio-psychological, and situa- pain perception. This theory iproposes that - noxious stim- tional factors influenee 'painperception Sand tolerance uli activate selectiv e JAniral nervous sy dem, processes, ' (cf. Weisenberg, '1977). Different cultural groups have which act to exert control over incoming message's'. Iti-. . different views of appropnate pain reactions, including fluence,d by this trigger mechanism. cells at each level the circumstances under which it is permissible to cry( of the spinal cord act as a gate-control system, increasing Or ask for help., Moreover, the influences of the soli.al or decreasing their receptivity toipc6ming pain signals context and meaning of the pain experience producectk-, traveling along the nerves. This systeni makes it possible ferences betweeh clinical and expenmentally-induced for higher mental processes, which underlie attention, pain. Pain in clinical situations involves anxiety asso- emotion, and memories of prior experience, to alter ciated with,,,the drsease process and fear of death (Wei- transmission of pain signals ( Weisenberg, 1977). senberg, 1977, Beecher, 1959), whereas experimentally The posited physiological and anatomical bases for . induced pain does not. the gate-control theory have been subject toconsiderable criticism (e.g., Nathan,1976.,' Liebeskind and 'Paul, The Placebo Effect 4*IP.1977): However, a wide assortment of clinical and ex- A pervasive phenomenon in thepain literature is the perimental findings haVe been interpreted as supporting placebo effect, that is, the'reduction ofpain or the re- tlillitheoryyr at least certain aspects Of it (Liebeskind moval of symptoms via medication or.therapeutic treat- and Paul, 1977)and,the theory has led to the devel- 'the ment which has no identifiableactive component (Shap- opment of a technique for artificially stimulating subsequent iro, 1971). It has beenestimated that placebo medication nervous, system to relieve pain. Although, work on endorphins calls into question some key details (e.g:, pharmacologically incresubstances)and °Mb!' non- specific treatment factors reduce pain successfully in of the gate-control theory, the original theory and sub- highlight- about 35% to 40% of patients (Beecher,1959). Although sequent modifications have been influential in the placebo response in medicine hasbeen widely rec- ing the importance of motivational and cognitive factors nuisance in pain experience. ognized, until recently it.had been regarded as a t . vanable, In pharmacological research, theroutine inclu- The recent discovery of endogenous,,opiate-binding =sion of a control group receiving aninert Medication has receptors, and substances in the brain (endorphins) that bind with these receptom has led to a new interest in e n considered anessential methodological control, particularly in evaluating' psychoactivedrugs. Mecha- central nervous system mechanisms Of pelt control. It has been demonstrated that a- pain suppression system nisms of th'e placebo response as acomponent of various thtrapeutic interventions have now comeunder study in exists in the brain which can be activatedabypsycho-' their own right. Contrary to the popular1'elief that pla- physiological procedures such as electrical stimulation and cebo effects are confined to psychologicalchanges, there (Liebeskind and Paul, 1977j, and by environmental psychological manipulations such as exposure lo stress. are data shoWing thatplacebos can produce a variety of 91( 1ST Behavior and Health577 Recent research (Mayer et al., l976, Le et al., 108) compliance is a problem in areas of the treatment process suggests tha mechanisms of action'of heretofore-poorly" other than adhere ce to regimen. Substantial numbers. OM c puncture, of patients who 111 not have painful symptoms fail-u; placebo respopse) may involve this.eildogenougsystem- come for scheduled appointments, and the problem of The physiological *involvement 2f..e.nd9rphins is in- inducing and maintaining change of unhealthful habits vestigated by administering naloxone, a drug that spe- (such as diet and smoking) is particularly formidable. cifically blocks the actionof opiates...If an endogenous, A good deal of attention has been given to isolating 4-:pilys,ological processis blocked by naloxone, endor- factors that influence or predict compliance (Becker, phins," can be-ititimd to play a role in this process. 1979; §ackett and Haynes, 1976). Surprisingly, common Levin?, Gordon and Fields (1978) investigated the pos- dewgraphic variables such as age;sex:and marital anl sible role of endorphin activity In placebo pain relief, socio-economic status have little independent influence. O with patients who had. just undergone painful dent& sur- Tilt\ crux of the -problem is often poor doctarwatient gery as the, study sample.Naloxofne was'adrrinisterede-cogaunication, rather than tie patient's behaviottlone. `itohalf*cifithe patients under randomized, double-bind T\vo sets of vanables deriiring from.the physician patient conditions, the other half of the subjects received -ipla: encountersatisfaction with ca e and comprehension of cebo. Pairr ratings were taken, and those patient% pre- the treatment regimenappear o effect compliance: vibusfy green a placebo were further subdivided into twb Aspects of the doctor-pat' relation-ship determine grodps. 4se whose pain w'asireduced-br. unehangegusatisfaction, and satisfaction ennines-tho-degree to "..\(`.placebo responders"), anckthose Whose_pain rncreaf which medical aciv ice is acc ample, a study ("non-rest)onders;-'). Patients were then randomly gin in a pediatric setting (Korscan egrete, 1972) found second .rl?ug. again either naloxone or a pla4bo. Re- that a major source of mothers' ,dissatisfaction was the w 0., Its indicated that after the first drug administration; failure of physicians to answer qultions and provide b ubjtcts given naloxone reported -more pain than those clear explanations of illness. More than 80% of those ven a placebo. Naloxone given as a second drug pro, who thought the physician had been understanding were 4 diced no additional increase in pain levels of placebo sa1i56ed. as compared to only onethird of those who did . non-responders, but did increase pain levels of placebo riot feel that the doctor tried to understand their problems. :responders. These data are consistent w ith a hypothesis If mothers were dissatisfied with the communicator (i.e., that endorphin release mediates placebo pain relief for the doctor) or the content of irie consultation, they were dental postoperative pain .° This stud), is only' an initial less likely to comply with the physician's advice investigation of the possible role of endorphin activity A second aspect of the compliance,problem is the in psychological pain phenoinena. Future research on patient's ability to Comprehend and recall details of the endorphins promises to have a profound impact not only treatment regimen. Much of the failure to follow doctors' on bask, science and clinical understanding of pain, but orders is due to genuine problems in understanding and also on a wide range of biobehavioral phenomena in- remembering what is told (Ley and Spelman, 1967). ! eluding addictive behaviors and mental illness. Often, the material presenyd by the doctor is too difficult to understand, thetreatmentregimen itself is overly or patients hold misconceptions about illness COMPLIANCE WITH MEDICAL REGIMENS` or human physiology which lead to confusion. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness that The causes and conseqUences of comprehension, prob- the failure of patients to adhere to prescribed medical lems are illustrated by a study in which physician-patient regimens is probably the single greatest problem in bring- interactions were observed fora lower-class clinic sam- ing effective medical care to the individUal patient. This ple (Syarstad,. 1976))? 'Reviews of medical records and problem also contnbutes in a major way to the economic pharmacy files, follow-up interviews, and validation of and social costs of illness (Sackett and Haynes, 1976, patients' reported behavior via pill counts were made. Cohen, 1979). Although adhbrence varies, it is not un- The.dati revealed that patients did not 'always leave the .' common to find compliance rates as low as 50% in many clinic with an accurate perception of what physicians situations. it was estimated 'recently that only one -third expected them to do. Frequently, physicians were not of patients adhere correctly, that one-third are noncom- erffibit-nrdiscussing their expectations with the patierits. MC. pliant because they adhere to a misunderstood regimen, When physicians did make efforts to utqtivate compli- and that one-third 'are knowingly noncompliant (Cohen, ance by being friendly, appealingtreason,or checking 19t). , on previous compliance, many more patients conformed The medicaiion compliance problem may be most to the prescribed regimen. pronounced for chronic illnesses, such as high blood pressure, where effective therapy requires regular, long- Maintaining Adherence to .Regimens 's term t,gking'of,medications that may produce unpleasant The vucial challenge for medical compliance, as with side-effects (Sackett and Haynes, 1976). However, non- the modification of other health-impairing behaviors, is yy 88, . 578 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK to maintain people on prescribed regimens for sustained modify t smoking habit are also associated with the periods. This problem is illustrated by the remarkably correctioof other health-impairing habits, lifestyles, similar relapse rates among subjects treated in programs and depeencies (e.g., poor diet, alcoholism, lacof. aimed at. weight reduction, smoking cessation, and re- exercise). e will give considerable attention to the V duction of alcohol consumption (Hunt et al.,1979). smoking ptvblem to illustrate behavioral science ap- Two-thirds of such patients abandon the regimen and proaches toghese helth-impairing behaviors. backslide by the end of three months, and .only about one-quarter of the individuals maintain changed behavior Initiation and Prevention of Smoking,, at the end of a one-year period. Gigareittefoking can be viewed as the product of a One technique used to help maintain long-tern ad- multi-stagprocess that begins with initial experimen- herence to treatment regimens,involves a focus on the tation with cigarettes and leads to the acquisition of a Immediate rewards and conseqten(!es of compliance or habit ancLor addictive process (Pomerleau, 190) Data noncompliance. A range 'of "behavior modification" suggest tliat even limited adolekent experimentation procedures, based on pnnciples,of operant learning, have war', smoking may lead to habitual smoking (Leventhal proveh the most effective (Pomerleau and Brady, 1979). and Cleary, 1980). Psychosocial factors related to ini- Interventions tb increase adherence must also recognize tiation of smoking include social pressure from peers, those characteristics of the social interactions of physi- imitation of adult behavior, adolescent rebellion and anti- cians and patients that foster rioiwomp144n..-.e.--. social tendencies. and personality factors - such as--ex.- Most of the research on medical compliance has been trav ersiona biologically-based dimension related to designed to solve practitioners'.everyday clinical prob-c arousal or stimulation-seeking A social learning expla- lems, rather than to develop a comprehensvoe theory that nation of smoking initiation (Bandura, 1977) assumes may apply across a broadrAge of medical situations, that the habit is acquired through imitation and social illnesses and behaviors However, one conceptual ap- reinforcement, typically under the influeficesof peer pres- proach that has iTeceived some support in explaining sure, media stereotypes, etc. medically-related behaviors (including compliance) is The inhalation of smoke is initially somewhat aver- the Health Belief Model This model centers on the pa- sive', but after sufficient practice, pharmacological ha- tir.nt's v.ies about the appropnate paths of action in the bituation (or tolerance) occurs, and the behavior pro- presence of health distutbances, perceptions of barriers duces enough 'satisfaction or reward in its own right to io action, and subjective interpretations of symptoms maintain the habit (Pomerleau, 1980). The delayed neg- (Becker.' 1979).Still more effective 'approaches are ative health consequences, but Immediate social and bi- needed that encompass the phy sician-patient,communi- ological rewards of smoking, may account for many of 'cation process and suggest ways of making the rewards the difficulties in modifying-the habit once it becomes of long-term medical compliance more salient to patients., established (Jarvik, 1979). Early efforts to prevent smoking assumed that this 06 could be accomplished by teaching young people -the THE SMOKING PROBLEM AN EXEMPLAR OF HEALTH health consequences of this habit. But the results were IMPAIRING BEHAVIOR largely disappointing, (cf. McAlister et al. 1979). How- ler The cigarette smoking habit, has been described as the ever, several projects have obtained encouraging results single most preventable cause of death in the United by employing socio-psychological techniques of com- States (U.S D.H.E.W., 1979a). Yet, despite the fact that munication and attitude change to deter smokingin ad- knowledge of the health nsks of smoking has reduced olescents. A pioneering effort in the area, The Houston the percentage of adults who regularly use cigarettes, Project, is a three-year longitudinal study (Evans et al., there are still over 50 million smokers in the U.S. today. forthcoming). This project created'persuasive films and Moreover, in recent years there has been an alarming posters to teach young teens (grades 7-9) about peer and increase in the proportion of'teenagers (particularly fe- media pressures to smoke, and about effective techniques males) who are taking up the smoking habit. With regard for resisting pressures, Other filtn4 demonstrated the im- to the modification of smoting behavior, the problem mediate physiological consequences of sniokirtg (e.g., is not that the public is unaware of 'thenegative healtkl carbon monoxide in the breath). Hundredt of students consequences, but that the great majonty of smokers are in matched experimental and control groUpS-Werreitii--- unable to quit or stay off cigarettes fOr prolonged periods pared for cigarette smoking rates at the start of the project (Leventhal and Cleary, 1980, Bernstein and Glasgow., and during the three-year follow-up. The results indi- 1979). cated a significant impact of the films and posters: ex- glik Cigarette smoking isa behavior whose initiatiofi, perimental subjects smoked less frequently, and ek: maintenance, and cessation are determined by a mixture pressed less intention to smoke compared to a control of social,' psychological, and physiological factors.' group receiving no intervention (Evans etal., Many of the problems faced in attempts to prevent and fOrthcoming). . - . Behavior and Health ,579 Maintenance of the Smoking Habit as a mediatOr of psychological determinants of smoking , rat.. Ulinary-pl-f was found to covary with naturalcstic 4.NOncesmoking is established, both psychological and situations (e.g., party-going, examinations) assLated biological factors contribute to its persistence and re- with heavier smoking. Schachter's point is tf6t the in- sistance to change. Learning mechanisms, possiblyIn fluence of psychological variables (such as stress) on conjunction with physiological satisfactions derived .smoking rate operate only because of their effects on the from smoking, ,play a considerable role. in maintaining urinary pH mechanism. Support for this was provided the habit (Hunt and Matarazzo, 1970). The use of cig- by a laboratory experiment v. hich independently manip- arettes becomes part igf a chain of behaviors. taking out ulated stress and urinary pH. Results indicated that smok- the package; lightint the cigarette, getting tobacco ing covaried with pH, rather than stress. smoke, etc. As a result, the aforementioned stimuli as- However, there remain several exceptions tothe . sociated with smoking come to elicit pleasurable re- nicotine-regulation model. There are different types of sponses by themselves. In addition, the avoidance pf smokers, some of whom do not appear to smoke for unpleasant withdrawal effects (e.g., craving) becomes nicotine content (Schachter et al,1977). In addition, rewarding, thus helping to maintain the habit (Russell, the Schachter model suggests that lowered nicotine con- 1979). Tirse observations receive more systematic sup- tent of cigarettes will increase the number of cigarettes port from animal research which demonstrates that drug smoked, and data in this regard are, at best, contradictory responses (e.g., morphine tolerance) can become con- (Garfinkel, 1979) Nevertheless, the nicotine-regulation ditioned reactions, and that withdrawal symptoms can hypothesis has identified a biobehav lora] m5hanism for be conditioned to external cues (Siegel, 1979). cigarette addiction. Learning or conditioning mechanisms alone are not Withdrawal sufficient to explain the maintenance of smoking, since many smokers sill increase intake to regulate or achieve Because of the/addictive component of,smoking, itis a particular level of nicotine in their system (Schachter crucial to understand the withdraw al process in order to et al., 1977). Biological factors figure prominently in develop effective intervention strategies to modify the the maintenance of the habit, and nicotine is the chemical ,habit. However, most research efforts have concentrated. in tobacco that is most likely, responsible for these effects on the effects of cigarette smoking, rather than on the (Jarvik, 1979). However, the question of whether pig:. effects of cessation, i.e,irritability, sleep disturbances, arette smoking can he considered andcliction compa- inability to concentrate, and weight gain (Schachter, rable to heroin or alcohol addiction remains a subject of.1978). scientific debate (Russell, 1979). Recent research by Grunberg (1980) suggests that Tobacco has the capacity to elicit many of the defining , weight gain accompanying withdrawal from nicotine charactenstics of an addictive process, and there has may result from increased preferences for sweet-tasting been recent biobehavioral research on the complex in; foods. Smokers allowed to smoke at; fewer sweets than terplay of psychological and pharmacological processes did nonsmokers or deprived smokers. The three groups leading to smoking behavior. For example, e nicotine- did not differ in consumption of nonsweet foods. A par- regulation hypothesis asserts that heavy smokers adjust allel study' with animals showed that nicotine adminis- their smoking rate to keep nicotine at a roughly constt tration retarded normal body weight increase in young level, and that the.rate of smoking depends on the r e rats. Cessation.of,nicotine Was accompanied by marked of nicotine excretion and breakdown by the body. The .increases in body weight -and concomitant increases in rate of nicotine excretion depends, in part, on the acid- consumption of sweet foods. Moreover, these effects base balance (pH)of the urine, which, in turn, can be Could not be explained by changes in total food con- altered by psychological stress' or anxiety...Thus, it is sumption or activity level. argued that the links between psychological processes, Ability to put up with the withdrawal syndrome the craving for cigarettes, and increased smoking are crucial to the maintenance of smoking cessation. There- mediated. by a physiological addiction mechanism in- fore, further investigation of mechanisms responsible for volving the pH of urine (Schachter et al., 1977). ° symptoms accompanying withdrawal may suggest tech- A senes of programmatic studies (Schachter et al., niques for controlling tfie high recidivism rate. among 1974 provide support for this hypothesis. First, a sam-, those who quit smoking. ple of long time heavy smokers consistently smoked more low than high nicotine cigarettes, thus showing'Modification of Smoking Behavior that smokers "regulate" nicotine intake. Next, it was Most of the,effolt in the snloking area has been directed shown that when unnary pH was marnpulpted by the toward the development of smoking-cessation strategies. adm'inistration of acidifying or alkalizing agents, smok- Many of tha earlier intervention studies suffered,from 1 ers smoked more when urine was acidified. A third set problems of experijnentel design (e.g:, lack of adequate .control groups), and difficulties in measunng smoking- of studies exaned the unnary pH-excretion mechani'sm, . .4 - SSRC FIVE-YI.AR OU11.001: ' , cessation objectively. There was also a high early drop- were,ci. esigned to prevent relapse by educating partici- out rate, sometimes reaching 50% of"subjects included pants in behavioral techniques for coping with antici- in the initial sample, which may spuriously inflate the pated relapse problems (e.g , stress, weight gain) About initial success rate (cf. Leventhal and Cleary, 1980, Pom- 40,000 adult smokers participated in the study; as a result erleau, 1980). More recent wort, has enabled some sys- of the program a small ,Iut significant percentage tematic evaluation of the long-term efficacy6f.,smoking- achieved sustained oabstinente from ,smoking atsix- cessation programs and techniques. month and one-year follow-ups(McAlister et al., 1980). The Stanford and Finnish programs represent-impres- These approaches include indi- Therapy Approaches sive, and perhaps, cost-effective efforts -./to induje large vidual and medical counseling, hypnosis, group therapy, numbers of people to aba the cigarette habit on a and behavioral therapies derived from the learning the- long term basis'. These and Ile lated studies, however, ones-of#expenmental psychology. have not produced unequivocally successful outcomes Research indicates that-most therapy techniques"--are (Leventhal and Cleary, 1980; Kasl, 1980). effective in promoting short-term cessation of smoking, Nonetheless., they do suggest that meaningful changes but usually fail,to keep mre than 50% of ex-smokers in smoking behavior v la public health approaches are off cigarettes for long periods of time (Bernstein and possible, but only when the risks of smokingare made Glasgow. 1979) Systematic study of the important area immediate and salient, and both skills and support to of maintenance of nonsmoking is just beginning. and ,change smoking beh;mor' are provided (Pornerleau, strategies such as long -term group support and behav- 1980). The more important question of whether risk fac- ioral techniques for coping with anticipated withdrawal tor (e.g., smoking) reductionill lower morbidity and symptoms are promising. A number of the public health mortality, particularly from ckdiovascular diseases. is studies described below incorporate components of be- being studied directly by large-scale intervention trials havioral therapy approaches. Successful long-term snv. underway. These projects will be discussed inthe smoking-cessation results obtained by these studies are 1t section of this chapter. due in part to therapy techniques. Public Health Approaches'It appear.' that significant OTHER BEHAVIORAL IIIEJWIES INHEALTH/C4RE reductions in aduK smoking,' especially among middle aged 'males and certain professional groups, can be at- The increasing importance of behavioral and social self tributed to information and educational campaigns ini- enees in medicine is due, in part, to the developnien4of tiated after the first Surgeon General's Repprt on Smok- effective procedures for changing illness-related behav- ing in 1964 (Pomerleau, 1980). In recentyears, several iors Several of these behavior modification techniques,. large-scale media-based projects have been undertaken which were designed and evaluated for the prevention,' in the United States and Europe to changeattitudes and management, and treatment of physical disease (Pom- behaviordrelated io smoking. ° erleau and Brady, 1979), .have already been alluded to The Stanford Heart Disease Prevention Projectv.a."-§ in the discussions of medical compliance and cigarette designed to'reduce a broad range of risk factors 'including smoking. Otfier health-care applications are in'the areas smoking (Farquhar et al., '1977, Meyer et al., 1980). of pain control, childhood disorders, adult psychoso- Three communities were studied. one served as a control, matic disorders, rehabilitation of the disabled and phys-, a second was exposed to a massmedia campaign on; ically ill, and geriatric problems (Melamed and Siegel, heart disease risk factors, ipcluding smoking, and a third 1980). Four representative, behff.iorar techniques are received the mass media campaign and face-to-face be- described below. havioral therapy for selected high-riskpersons.the me-, Operant Control of Chronic Pain dia campaign alone produced some reductions in smok- , - . ing at long-term foHow-up. Moresubstantial reduction Pain reactions can persist long after the original phys- occurred when the media campaign was supplemented iological sensation and tissue damage have been reme- 'by face -to -face therapeutic instniction. These findings Mated. Fordyce and others (1976) have developed a such are encouraging, but must beevaluated Cautiously be- cessful technique for treatment of chronic pain' through cause of several methodologicalproblems inherent in the application of operant conditioning procedures. risk factor studies of this sortnamely, the highdrop; Many pain-related behaviors become established and out rate andior other difficultiesencv,intered when sub- maintained by the particular rewards they provide for the jects do not adhere ,to the randomly assigned interven:, patient, for example, attention from family, staying tions`involving lifestyle changes (Kasl, 1980). home from work, as well a's pain relief, Environmental Another ambitious study, in Finland (Puska et al., '.rewards (e.g., attention from family arid/or hospital staff)" 1978), intl-oduced a nationwide multiple-component pro are therefore rrihnipidated sothat tie value of undesirable grim, including televised counseling sessjons. These ,pain behaviors is reduced or removed. °*- ar w.12,3 11111 I.0 1, V 40 1111. LI ., Behavior and Health 581 Cognitive-Behlvioral Interventions" effectiveness of biofeedback versus other therapetuic. These techniques are designed to reduce pain'and the techniques. aversiveness of medical procedures (4., surgery)' by Relaxation Training diminishing perceivd threat And the psychological stiess associated with Medical pro - ures (Turk and Genest, Relaxation therapies' are procedures designed to elicit 1979). &nee the physiological an or behavioral com- physical and ed{otional calmness in order to decrease ponents 9f the stress response (e.g., excessive sympa- autonomic nervous system arousal, muscular tension, thetic nervous system activity, lowered motivation or and other' physiological correlates of psychic trauma. The most common technique is deep muscle relaxation ,, ability to comply with medical, regjmens) may, also.in- terf. ere with the recovery process (cf. Krantz, ,19801, Ocobson,'1938), whivh involves supervised practice in there is some inch/anon that stress-reduction procedures the systematic relaxhtion of major skeletal muscle can speed recovery. Some of these prQcedures groups Relaxation therapy is effective in the tatment psychological preparation of children for hospitalization) of,a variety of psychophysiologic disorders, including are being applied routinely (tned and Siegel, 1980). high blood pressure, migraine headache,' and chronic pain syndromes (Melamed,and Siegel, 1980). Biofe tekack Until recently, it'Was believed that the responses of the OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS autonomic nervous system were involuntary and that an .- idual could exert,little or no control oer these proc- An important priority for research in the next tie. years esses However, visceral responses such A heart rate, is the integration of beha lord and biomedical knowl- blood pressure, and skin temperature can be controlled edge in a way that elucidates the mechanisms underlying voluntarily when feedback is Op ided to the mill% 'dal the 'interplay among behQ,4or, phy'siologiLal processes, for altering these respOnses (cf. Miller, 1969). Biofeed- and somatic dysfunctions Accordingly, the.key issues back training teaches the individual to monitor physio- for biobehmimil inquiry.include further study of tea- logical responses through the use of electronic instru- ' tures of the behavioral context and of the individual ments. When ;subject alters a physiological state (e.g.; (e.g.:coping styles, biologic predispositions, mailabil- heart rate, muscle tension,electrical activity of the ity of social supports) which may determine the outcome brain), he or 'she is provided*with4intstory,sisual, of of exposure to stressful event. Also suggested are fur- other feedback indicating 1$14 the correct response has ther studies c?r psychophysiological mechanisms that been mad Th*feedback iyeffectise in\teaching subjects mediate behmior-dpease linkages, parmularly thosein- to condol the physiological response because it tells them volving neuroehdocnne and immune responses. Other that theiron% ated attempts to alter the response are priorities are the development and naluation of tech- effective. -in's, the feedback serves as a reinforcer (re- niques lo produce sustained changes in behavioral risk ward), which leads to learned control Of tjie physiological factors. This:ancludes research.on'mechanisms of smok- responSe (Miller, 1969). ing addiction and witlfdravval, and prevention of health- Recent research has explored the clinical utility of itnpairing habits. The important area of medical com- biofeedback techniques for such disorders as high blood pliance requires more theoretically -based research taking pressure, migraine headache, seizure disOrders, sexual into Account doctor-patient communication and the cog-. dysfUnctions, and muscular paralysis (atchel and Price; nitneelmoth anonal factors that sustain adhefence to treat- 1979; Ray et al., 1979)..A. particularly effectil;e clinical mentregimens. application has been in the treatment of nairomuscular %. disorders. For isxample, through the use of feedbaok for BIOBEHAVIORAL PARADIGM FOR RESEARCH INTO THE activity of muscle units (cells), paralyzed or damaged ETIOLOGY AND PATHOGENESIS OF-PHYSICAL DISEASE muscles may once again-come under voluntary Control. Dysfunctions such as cerebral palsy, muscular spasms, Psychopcial Stress and various paralyses have been successfully treated by As npted eaplier, stress has been implicated as a central biofeedback. Often, these dysfunctions were previously factor in the etiology of cardiovascular illness and also unre,iponsive to traditional physiOtherapies and medical may play a role in the development of peptic ulcer, . OF surgical treatment (Ray et al.,) 979) cancers, and infectious diseases. The association of psy- ThQanitial enthusiasm for biofeedback probably ex- chological stress with somatic disorders underscores the aggerated its therapeutic effectiveness. Furlher research importance of research anned'at (1) understanding when has revealed limitations, in the use of this technique. For and under what conditions stress becomes translated into example, it Must still be established that training in lab- physical diseases, (2) specifying the physiological and oratory or clinic_ generalizes to real-fife setting's, and. neuroendoccine pathways through which ttt, ess-reactions /here is need for more research evaluating the relative41; pekentiate illness, and (3) identifying factors whichpre- . 582 SSRC FIVE -YEAR OUTLOOK dispose individuals to one stress- related disdrderrather activity of s*e ted mediating structures, such as the than another (cf. Graham, 1972). receptor sites of the sympathetic nervous system, provide 'a direct means of assessing the impact of stress-related Conditions fur the Stress'-Disease RelationshipStres/ physiologic processes upon target organs whose dys- (Is probably an inevitable aspect of modern living. the function is suspected to be of psychogenic origin (e g , ) ! struggles, conflicts, and frustrations -144.0 threaten inch'- Obrist, 1981). vidual well-being seem an inherent quality of the hurl-tan research models, will however, remain indis,- condition. Yet, stress-related diseases are far from uni- piumansable, especially in the study of cognitive and O e r- versal. It would appear that personql attributes/ and sit- ceptualNanablesthat initiate and regulate physiological uanonalvariablesexert an important influence in mod- ,reactions. to stressful stimuli. Experimental research -is ifying the outcomes of psychological stress (Cohen et essential and justifiable for making progress in this area al., 1981). Among the more promising of these modifiers where no demonstrable damage to subjects can be dis-. are sociocultural resources, including direct help or cerned. Where ethical and practical concenis limit the emotional support from other people and the health-care applicability of laboratory methodologies in studying a system. Also important are particular psychological char- fproblem area it is frequently possible to conduct studies acteristics of 'stressors, such as whether they are pre- of populations who are exposed to the variable of interest', ., dictable or within the individual's ability to control. In under natural conditions. . , addition, bidlogiLal predispositionsAndacquired factors Recent, dev eiopments in psychophysiological meas- such as styles of coping may mediate the impact of stres- urement make it possible to measure the influence of sors, thereby influencing the likelihood of adisease out- behavioral Aanables on physiOlogical proceses in'na- come (Cohen et al., 1981). Thus, univ anate studies link. turalistic settings, such as home or workplace These mg indices of stress with disease endpoints must be techniques have opened new frontiers in biohav ioral re- supplanted by multivariate research in which the stress-. search. For example, a recent study successfully utilized, moderating effectolbtological, psychological, and soLio- a portable electronic device to- provide blood prefS.ure cultufalvariablesare taken into account. biofeedback aimed at preventing fainting, thereby aiding For research to be cost effective, psychost1tcial vari- in the rehabilitation of paralyzed patients (Miller, 1979) ables must, where appropriate, be examined in conjunc- Another study (Dimsdale and Moss, 1980) utilized a tion with ongoing biomedical studies. For example, the portable blood withdrawal pump to monitor plasma hor- National Institutes of Health are currently funding a num- mone levels during periods of emotional stress and ber of Specialized Centers of Research (SCOR), which eNercise. , are concerned with various aspects of cardiovascular A focus on mechanisms linking behavior and health disorders-in children and adults (U.S.D.H.E.W., 1978). is required in order to translate historical and epide- .Givers the importance of behavioral variables in these miological descriptors, such as age, personality, ge-, disorders, valuable scientific data at aelatively low cost netijs, or nutritional history ,into psychophysiological would be provided by incorporating behav 'oral compo- processes that can be modified or altered (5chwartz et nents in these studies. For example,a psychosocial com- al., 1979). To influence medical practice, behavioral and ponent was included in the Framingham Heart Study. social science research Must identify modifiable variables cohort examined in the late 1960's. Results of this study , involved not only in the etiology of disease, but also in reviewed above, provided useful information supporting the progress1'0n of illness after symptoms have appeared the importance of behavioral and,social variables in The (Stachnik, 19). . etiology of coronary heart 'disease (cf. Haynes, et al., 1980). . , . . The study of factors that se- . . The Specificity Problem Psychophysiologic MechanismsResearch on the psy-, lectively predispose individuals to particular disorders chophysiological pathways linking stress to disease will must incorporate examination of both traditional risk fac- . requirecontinued technological improvements to facil- .tors (including genetic predispositions),and acquired be- itate the measurement and identification of neuroendo- , haviors.(such as coping styles), as well as features of the cnne, central-neural, and related processes.Animal situation (e.g., exposure lo particular types of stressors) models will play an important role in such research (cf. Both animal and human 'research models need ¶o be Ader, 1976, Campbell and Henry, forthcoming). The used in exploring issues of selective susceptibility to study of pathophysiological mechanisms often relies disease. The controlled Breeding of infra-human species upon proceduies that cannot be usedwith human sub- can facilitate the study of genetic and behavioral inter- jects, These procedures include the use ,of surgical in- play. For example, several strains of rats susceptibleto terventions and electncal stimulation as means of iden- (stress and salt-induced HBP have been produced through tifyingsites that regulate bodily reactions to stressful selective breeding (Campbell and Henry, forthcoining) events.- Drugs that selectively stimulate (or block) the Similarly, genetic strain appears to influence suscepti- I'S 4 **. Behavior and Health X83 bility to gastrtc lesions caused by exiienmentel immo- Methodological Issues . bilization (Weiner, 1977). . ir The complexities involved in integrating behavioral and Human research also should contribute :to the study 'biomedical knowledge will require multifaceted research of biobehavioral factors that nSe for vulnerability to strategies. What is needed is a continual interplay be- Specific physical diseases. Recall ,that' subjects witha tween laboratory and field methodologies. This interplay family history of hypertension exhibit enhanced blood may take several forms. For example, an effect can be pressure response while working at a demanding task established as reliable with controlled labOratory exper- (Obrist, 1981). A similar research strategy could be used imen ation, where causal links can be. inferred. The gen- to study physiological changes in subjects with a family eray of therelationship can then be estabIrShal in sub- history of other disorders. For exaziple-, stress-induced ' sequent research in natural settings (e.g., home, workplace) changes in serum glucose levels might be studied in (cf. Cohen et al., 1980). Similarly, Oy first conducting individuals with diabetic parents. This type, of research field studies, it is possible to isolate important shoqld be supplemented by studies of twins and pro- dimen- sions of a particular research area. At that point, labo- spective research employing longitudinal designs. ratory studies may be useful to rule out alternative ex- planationefften inherent in naturalistic research. A vivid Type A Behavior Pattern exampl of this-methodological interplay is provided by data on Qne illustration of a developing area of mechanism- iobehavioralitactorsn the tmology of high blood pressure. Naturalistic anclinical evidence sug- onented biobehavioral research is the study of the Type gested that psychosocial stresslays a role in this dis- A "coronary-prone" behavior patte'rn. aavingidemon- order. Accordingly, laborat studies were undertaken strated its association with coronary. disease, research to isolate the psychophysiological mechanisniis involved now is addressing issues similar to those discussed inr In behavioral responses to environmental stressors. Fur- the section on psychological stress: (I), isolation ,of as-, ther naturalistic work (e.g., Rose et al., 1978) extended pects of the behaviopattern that confer enhanced risk; the laboratory findings by demonstrating that exagger- (2) identification of the psychological mechanisms that ated blood pressure responses to high work loads were produce and sustain coronary-prone behavior; (3) spec- predictive of, sustained .hypertension (Herd, 1978). ification of the- physiological processes that accant for the enhanced risk of individuals displaying coronary - , prone behavior (Glass, 1981). Subsequent studies (prob- RISK 'FACTOR MODIFICATION AND PREVENTION ably with animal models) might be undertaken to elu- RESEARCH ISSUES AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS cidate cause-and-effectThat is, do animals bred or Associations between major chronic diseases and seem- trained to exhibit 'type A behavioral characteristics,show ingly modifiable behavioral factors have spurred interest elevated physiologicalereactivity, or are the behavioral in relating behavioral knowledge to health promotion responses caused by physiological reactivity' Indeed, and the prevention of disease (Breslow, 1978, Mafar- both behavioral and physiological reactions may be con- azzo, 1980). The present body of iesearch in this area sequences of a third variable located elsewhere in the constitutes only a promising beginning, and itis wise nervous systeici. to be cautious about making unequivocal claims of suc- cess based on existing evidence. However, this emerging research area does raise important challenges and Psychoneuroimmunology questions. The emerging field of psychoneuroimmunology also holds great proMise (cf. Ader, 1981). Exploration of Maintaining Abstinence basic mechanisms of immune changes produced by psyl chological stimuli will continue to be an active area of While there are encouraging_indications _that established research. In addition to controlled laboratory experi- patterns of behavior can be ohanged, in the short-term, mentation with animals, there is # need to determine if a major difficulty has been maintaining these changes reliable, roplicable, and clinically meaningful,alterations in substantial numbers of individuals over sustained pe- in immune function in humans are associated with psy- riods of time (Bernstein and Glasgow, 17979, Hunt et al., choS'ocial variables (e.g., certain life stressors,coping, 19'79). There is also a high early drop-out rate in vanous styles, or both of 'these acting together). Other research treatment programs' (cf. Leventhal and Cleary, 1980). priorities for this field include the study of correlated Work in these areas by behavioral scientists will intensify changes in neuroendocrine and immune functions across in the next five yefars and must focus on understanding the life span (development immunology), studies a pos- factors that initiate and maintain health-Impainng habits, sible learning and conditioning effects on the immune and not just on techniques to modify and prevent tlicm. system; and prospective studies relating behavior to proc- For some habits, such as smoking or drug abuse,.:ki- esses of immunologically-mediated diseases (Ader 1981). °logical factors are intimately involved at all stages of 4-" is a 4 584 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK the problem. Considerable attention must be 'given to the groups can beeasilYrecognized and are motivated to psychobiological and psychosocial aspects, of the with- change their behavitir (cfInstitute of Medicine. 19714 and behavior change processes themselves (Lev- drawal Modification of Type A Behavior enthal and Cleary. 1980) Smoking. dietary. and exercise habits. and health-endangering practices such as failure Various therapeutic approaches have been proposed for to use seat beltst, alcohol abuse. and poor hygienealso modifying the Type A pattern (Roskies 1980) 13ehav- must,be studied as sociocultural phenomena Decisions ioral techniques, such as relaxation training have been to engage in or modify health-impairing habits, andthe proposed as a way of reducing stress-related bodily re- incorporation.of changed behaviors as part of ap overall.sponses elicited in Type. Aindividuals Other strategies lifestyle, all occur in a social context (Syme, 19785. for modifying Pattern A have been designed to induce behavioral change One such technique involves having Antecedents of Habits and Risk Factors ,the subject imagine situations that normally elicit Type Halts and lifestyles develop in the context of faMily A behaviors, and covertly rehearse alternatNe. Type B and society; hence. more research is needed on the,sio- responses. Group therapy procedures alsohave been used' , , cializationof health-related habits. Stich longitudinal and in some studies with post-MI patients.'Efforts to evaluate cross-cultural research is expensive, but may be con- the effectiveness of these proceddres have yielded en- ducted in a cost-effective manner in conjunction with couraging results. but care must be exercised in drawing ongoing longitudinal studies of the development ofdis- definitive ,conclusion-s. Preliminary evidence suggests a ease risk tactors in children For example. anumber of reduction in cardiovascular complications and in,Type projects are being carried out amongpoliulatioris of A behaviors (Friedman. 1979; ROskies. 1980) . school-agechildren (e.g.. the Bogalusa Heart Study Systematic research aimed at assessing 'modification Voors et al.. 1976) to track the- distribution and time procedures for Type A behavior is certainly One of-the course of heart disease risk factors such as blood pressure priorities in this area However, large-scale pals may and serum lipids. Behavioral and social variables, in- be. premature at this time A more pressing priority is cluding family health ,values and habits could be Inca.; to delineate the partieularfeatures of the behavior pattern porated into such projects. A behavioral interface watt that are risk, enhancing as well as' the psychological fac- biomedical research would also provide an excellent op- tors that giverise to andsustain Type- A behavior portunity to examine the processes involved in the so- . Determining the Impact of Behavior Change on cialization of health lifestyles Morbidity and Mortality Prevention The presumably causal associations between behavioral 'Primary prevention before Visea'se develops) of factors and chronic diseases imply that effective modi- health impairing habits. and the promotion of healthy fication of habitsvand behavior patterns will reduce the 'lifestyles for people of all ages are cost - effective ap- incidence of ancl,,,Eportahty- from these- disordersThis proacheS to health'. For in the long term, the potential assumption is complex "and, requires furtherevidence costs in lives and dollars of treating disease arelikely before it can be accepted. in the case 6V cigarette smok- to outweigh the-eosts of preventing unhealthful habits. ing, epiderniological data reveal That rottmer cigarette Social learning approaches to smoking prevention have smokers expenencee declining overall mortality rates as yielded promising 'results in the Houston school-based the years of discontinuance of the habit increase intervention (Evans et all, forthcoming). Further work l964). Data on morbidity are more with children and adolescents might expose other habits complex. and indicate that the benefits of being an ex.' to social learning interventions. More-systematic re.: smoker are not as high as the benefits of never having search with 'adults also is needed. The workplace has smoked. Similarly, the data8n the effects of reduced proven to be a promising setting for such efforts.People blood Uprise onTI-ID are not conclusive (Kasl:1980) spend considerable time at work. and many employers Indeed, they suggest that factors.,sich as the ageat which sponsor such programs because of the benefits that accrue reduptions Occur andaheunderlying mechanismfo. r lipid from healthier employees. elevations`make a difference in the benefits that accrue. The terms "secondary,,prevention and "tertiary pre- Convincing evidence that risk (actor niodification re- vention- refer, respectively, to interventions taken to duces, disease incidence and Mortality can beyobtained arrest the progress of illness already' in early asympto- only from experimental or elinical trials, Several primary matic stages. and interventions to stop theprogression preention trials (selecting subjects free of disease at of.a 'clinically manifest disease (Institute of Medicine, entry into the study) areunderwyto;deterrnine if altering 1978), Secondary and tertiary prevention'activities in- diet, smoking. and controlling high blood pressure will 'volving behavioral factors may be more feasible than lower the incidence of coronary heart disease. One stench primary prevention, given the present state of knowlr project, initiated in 1973, is 'called MRFIT, that is, the'- Multiple Risk Factor Intervention.Trial (Collaboratilig edge, Advantages of such interventions are that targe) ", tiY. 1' 3.;,44r,, I. , BehaviorandHealth585 1 Investigators,1976).It involves nearly13.000 high- trials of therapeutic and preventive measures which are CHD-nsk individuals, half of whom were randomly as- relevant to the formation of public poliLy regAding be- signed to a special intervention program consisting of havior and health. health education. behavior modification. group support approaches, and a maintenance program to prevent re- cidivism. The other half of the-subjects received annual CONCLUDING COMMENTS medical exams only. Another project, the Stanford Five Clues Program (Farquhar, 1978), is an extension of the The final section of this ch apter has highlighted the-more first Stanford media-based intervention, with follow -ups promising research areas in behavior and health Fore- being taken to determine heart disease morbidity and most among these are the study of psychosocial stress 'mortality. and -the mechanisms linking stress and psycho-' Data regrding nsk factor reduction in these two stud- neuroimmunology, the challenge of maintaining absti- ies have not yet been published. It' is nol known hov. nence from health-impairing behav iors, and teghniques large a reduction in nsk factors is necessary to observe for enhancing medical compliance. a decrease in heart attacks in these populations. Results The biobehav ioral approach to somatic health and ill- are expected to be available fore MRFIT in the next ness is. by definition, an interdisciplinary venture.it two years requires the. contributions of researchers representing a Cline al tnals of lifestyle interventions face the, prob- variety of ski4ls and perspeitives. Provision need,, to be lems of behavioral measurement and of maintaining con- made for training investigars in the Integrativeskills. tinued adherence to regimens (KA. 1980. Sy me. 1978) necessary for continued pr OA:SS in the sLientifILstudy Despite these disadvantages, such studies are major field of behavior and health. NOTE Blumenth 1, J Aet al1978 Ty pe A Behavior and Angiograitically Documented Coronary Disease Circulation. 58 04-639 I' We would like to thank the many colleagues and friends (including Breslow. L 1978 Risk Factor Intervention for Health Maintenance Andrew Baum. Marsha Douma. Robert Gatchel. yeti Grunberg. and _ *Science. 200 908 -912 Jerome E Singer) who provided technical advice. prepnnts, and social_ BrtiksF P 1967Central Neural Control of Ac id SecretionIn support which aided in the preparation of this report We are particularly Handbook of Phxsuslogx Section VI Alimentan Canal 13altimore grateful to the member's of the Review Panel. especially Gilbert Oniehn, Witham. & Wilkins Henry W Rieken. and Mgttlda White Riley, and t(Roberta Balstad Miller, who carefully read and commented on an earlier version Campbell, R J .and Henry J P Forthcoming Animal Models ott. HypertensionIn D SKrantz. A .Baum, and 1IiSinger. eds REFERENCES Handbook of.P.sychologx and Health Cardiovascular Disorders Hillsdale. N JL Erlbaum Ader, R 1976. Psychosomatic Resear5ah in Animals In 0 Hill. ed Cannon. W B 1942 Voodoo Death American Anthropologist. 44 Modern Trends in Psychosomatic Medicine Lokdo Butterworths Ader, R ed d981 Psychoneuroimmunology New York Acadqmic 169.181. 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(unities and Dangers InS M Wag. edProicedings 4 the.Va Stress, 6(3) 217-38 tional Heart and Lung Institute Working Confereni eani Health Be- Lazaitis. R. S 1966 Psy'hologicalStress and the Coping Proiess haviorDHEVi Publication No (NIH i 76-868 IN adlingion. 0 C New York: McGraw-Hill 414* U S Government Printing Office Leventhal. H . and Cleary. P D 1980 The Smoking Problem A Miller. N E. 1979 General Discussion and a Review of Recent Results Review of Resettch and Theory to Behavioral Risk Modification with Paralyzed patients In R 1Gatchel and K P Price. eds Psychological Bulletin.88 370-405. Clinical Applications of BiofeedbackAppraisal and Statu'sNew Levi. L 1979 Psychosocial Factors in Preventixe Medicine InSur- York. PergamOn Press. geon General's Bdground Papers for Healthy People Report.U- .S Miller: T., and Spratt. 1S1979 Cntica Review of RepongdPsy- Department of Health. Education and Welfare USPH,S-Publicatain chological Correlates Or Cancer Prognosis and Growtb In B A No 79-55011AWashington. b c . U.S Government Printing Stoll. edMind and Cancer PrognosisLandon Wiley Office. Nathan:,P W. 1976 The Gate-Control ThCVry of Paid. A Critical Levine. J. D 'et al1978 The hanCsm of Placebo Analgesia ReviewBrain.99. 123-158 . I Lancet,2. 654-657. National Science Foundation1980 Health of the American People Ley. P. and Spelman. M. S:1967 ommunuating Kith the Patient InScience arid Technology Acise-Year,OutlookReport from the Lopdon. Staples Press National Academy of Sciences Washington. DCUS Govern- I Liebeskind: 1 C , and Paul, L A 1977. Psychological. and Physio- ment Pnnting Office 1 I logical Mechanisms of Pain.Annual Rains of Psychology.28. 41- Obnst. P A 1981.Cardiovascular Psyi hoPhysiologv.APerspec n I e 60 New York Plenum 1 Lown, B. et al1973. 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W H . eds , JJ. Bonica and 0 Albe-Fesard, eds ,1?ecetit Advances in Pain 1979.Evaluation of Clinical BiofeedbackNew York Plen'um 4. 4 *P-1 .c / 588 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK . u r A Riley. V 1975. Mouse Mampary Tumors. Alteration of Incidence as Handbook of Psychology Jai Health Cardiovascular Disorders Apparent Function of Stregs Ace, 189 465-467 ..Hillsdale, N J.L Erlbaum. Riley. M W.. and Foner. A 1968. Aging and Society New York. Siegel. S 1979 Pharmacological Learning and Drug Dependence In .Russell Sage Foundation D J°borne, M. M. Gruneberg. and J. R Eiser. eds.. Research Riley, M W , and Hamburg.sB A 1981 ,Report of the Subpanel on in Psychology and Medicine Volume 11 London Academic Press Stress, Health, and the Life Course Committee to Studt.Rese'aro Stachnik, T 1980 Priorities for Psychology in Medical Education and on Stress in Health and Disease. Institute et Medicine. National [health Care Delivery American Psychologist. 35 8-15 Academy of Sciences ' Svarstad. BL.11,976. 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D C . and Genest, M 1979 Regulation of Pain: The Application Pathogenesis of Coronary Heart Disease Medical Clinics of Nor1 of Cognitive and Behavioral Techniques for Prevention and Re- America: 58 268-279 mediationIn P C Kendall and S D Hollon, eds Cognitive- Roskies. E. 1980 Consideration in Developing a Treatment Program -Behavioral Interventions Theory, Research and Procedures New fo'r the Coronary-Prone (Type A) Behavior Pattern In P 0 David- York Academic Press. '', son and SNIDavidson. eds Behavioral Meclic7We: Changing Health Lifestyles. New York: Brunner-Mazel U S Department of Health. Education and Welfare 1964 Smoking -and Health A Report of the Surgeon General USPHS Publication Ross. Rand Glomset. 1 A 1976. The Pathogenesis of Atheroscle- rosis New England Journal 'of Medicine. 295 369-377. 420.425 No. 1103 Washington. DC US Government Printing Office! Russell. M A H 1979. Tobacco Dependence Is NiLotine Rewarding U S Department of Health. Education-and Welfare 1978 Specialized or Aversive' In N. A. Krasnegor. ed.. CigaretteSmoking as a Centers of Research in Arteriosclerosis Cardiovascular Profile of Dependence Process NIDA Research Monograph 23 U S. De- 15.000 Children of School Age in Three Communities USPHS partment of Health. Education, and Welfare. DILEW Publicarton Publication No (N1hp 78-1472 Washington. DC US Govern- e No (ADM) 79-800 Washington. D.0 U S avemment Printing ment Printing Office Office U S Department of Health Education and Welfare1979a Healtla People A Report of the Surgeon General on Health Promotion and Sackett-. D L , and Haynes. R E 1976 Compliance nith Therapeutic 4 Regimens FSaltimore Johns Hopkins eniversity Press Dam% Prevention USPHS Publication No 79-55071Washing- Schachter. S 1978 Pharmacological and Psychological Determinants ton. DC PS Government Printing Office of Smoking Annals of Internal Medicine, 88. 104-114 U S lieepartinent of Healtli.,E3uLation and Welfare 1979b Smoking Schachter. Set al1977 Studies of the Interaction of Psychological and Health A Report of the .SurgewrGeneral USPHS PubliLation and Pharmacological Determinants of Smoking Journal No 79-50066. Washington., D C U SelGoverninent Printing mental Psychology. General. 106 (I) 3-40 Qffice Schmale, A 1981Stress andCancer COrnmittee to Study Research Voors. A W et al1976 Studies tit Blood Pressure in Children. Ages on Stress in Health and Disease National Academy ofSciences. 5-14 Years. in a Total Biacial Community, Circulation, 54 319 Rea.. Institute of Medicine 627 -t Schnetdennan, N 1978 Animal Models Relating Behavioral Sit-as Asp Weiner. 1.11977 Pswholnology and HuMan Disease, New York and Cardiovascular Pathology In T M Dernbroski. S. M Weiss. Elsevier JL Shields. S G Haynes, and M. Feinleib. gds,..Coronary-Prone Weisenberg, M. 1977 Pain and-Pain Control. Psychological Bulletin, Behavior New York. Springer-Verlag 84: 1008-1044 Schwartz. G E et al1979 Behavioral Medicine 'Approaches to Hy! pertensionAn Integrative Analysis of Theory and Research. Journal Weiss. J M 1972Influence of Psychological Variables on Stress- of Behavioral Medicine,. 2 (4). 311-364, Induced PathologyIn R Porter. ttl. Physiology.Emotion. and Psychosomatic Illness. Cilia Foundation Symposium 8 Amsterdam Selye. Fl1956 The Stress of Life New York McGraw -Hill Shapiro, A. K. 1971Placebo Effects in Medicine, Psychotherapy, t Associated Scientific Publishers.' and Psychoanalysis In A E Gergin and S. L Gaifield. eds:Hand- Wolf, S et al1979 The Role of Stress in Peptic 01c5r Disease book of Psychotherapy and Behavioral Change. New York: Aldine. Journal of Human Stress, 5 (2)' 27-37 . If Shapiro. °AP Firthcoming The Non-pharmat ologic Treatnient of Wolf, S , and WOlff. H G 1947 Human Gastric Function New Hypertension In D. S. Krantz, A Baum, and J. E. Singer. eds., York: Oxford. it O 'A 3 ' r of I 4 a n , .1 1 , ... I 4, ,. . IAdvance)in Methods for Large-Scale J Surveys and Experiments' r'Th' 1 Judith M. Tanur 4 a . 1 SUMMARY of probability sampling are inadequate. Santpling tech- niques have been deyeloped to minimize the cosis of * collecting information and at the smile time prOvide ac- One of the most visible contributions of the social sci- -,,t urate data for the- researVier on policy maker. ences to modern society- has been the methodology of even when an appropriate sample is selected, numer- r survey research, in which a sample of the population is ous sources of error arise in interviewing. Is the respohd: studiedIn gathering information, political pollsters, ent's memory accurate for past events? What if a questiof market researchers, and govetnnient agencies all rely on is unanswered? What if the respondent lies or is predis- techniques that have been devised, applied, and then posed to give ---,socially desirable answers? What if.an refined 6y social scientists and statisticians. Virtually interviewer, rocords a response inaccurately ? 'Various every important policy decision, whether it is made by strategies ha-Ve been developed either to anticipate and a corpotatiOn or by a federal agency, requires system- guard against these difficulties prior to the survey or to aticallicollected information. This paper describes re- take them.into account Brice 'dig data are chllected.Fa'c- cent advances in the design, meakirement, and analysis tors such asthe impact oithe content .and the ordering procethires that are employed in large-scale-surveys and of-questions, characteristics of the interviewer, and even I social policy experiments. . the type of situation in which the information is,collected Surveys are conducted to obtain info/nation that is are considered. While interviews in person or by tele- not only accurate for the particular groups questioned, phone or mailed questionnaires are the most common but also accurate for some lamer popnlationefrom which- survey proi,edures there is also a new approach.to in- those groups are drawn. Forinany surveys, simple meth- terviewing called Computer Assisted Telephone Inter- odsiof probability sampling allow the researcher to es-. viewing (CATI), which prumises to_provide greatly in- timate the deviatiOn of sample findings from those that creased flexibility in tailoring inlerviews to each might exist for the entire population of interest. ,How- respondent. Althbugh many techniquesto, minimize ever, when a study is intended to assess the effects of . errorsin the collection of survey data involve the col- an experimental treatment, such as an income mainte- lection process itself; statistical .tochniques Illtve been nance program,or to' gather information on special. developed to'compensate for known gaps, and inaccu- ,0 subgroulA within the population, then simple caskods racies in already c011ectediata sets. . ,. 589 Ao IF , 590 SSRC FIVF-N EAR OUTLOOK ,r' . . . . Many 'survey research .techniques are used in longi- creation-of policy. dethockilogical resources developed tudinal studies and social policy experiments. often fed- fosr social science research are- used to design the-eval- A a erally funded. Through the use of proper statistical meth- uation of policy and to secure information crucial to ods, 1 broader and more reliable base of knowledge of governmental decisions. In 1979 some 150' domestic J. the educatio?f. employment, income and health of the assistance prograins used statistical factors (mostly sur- population has been developed. _- vey data and the Cen'kis) to allocate Over $120 billion in federal funds --ogle -fifth of the federalcbudget (Wall- Survey research technology is employed throughout . IND Amencan society. Furthermore, it is 'a technology that man, 1980). The federal investment in conducting the is undergoing constant innovation and re.ision. with surveys to gather the data on which these allocations techniques developed in one setting applied and modified were based is itself considerable, th'ough small It relation for 'another. Yet ,these metho'd's constantly receive the to the amount allocated. The combined budgets .of the meticulous attention of academic statisticians and re- major agencies fielding the relevant surveyswere ap- AA. searchers. The sociologist, political scientist, or ecbn- proximately three-quarters of a billion dollars .in 1979 0-0, omist investigating basic questions about human behav- What are these surveys that are so broadly used' ior relies on the same survey methods employed by . A survey issone means of gathering information about businegs and gove'rnm. ent. The research desciabed here the characteristics. actions, or opinit'ins of a large group, suggests that far from bqing a stable set of known tools', of people referred to as a ''population 2The population survey methodology is an active research field that pro- might be voters and the informations sought 'nnighbe ' ides continual benefits in the form of usable knowledge. their opinions of candidates or theft vote intentions the opulation might be recipients of food stamps and 'the, fifonnation sought might be how the food stamps are, ,INTRODUCTION used: the population might 'be consumers and the infor- mation sought might-te whether they intended to pur- An army is said to march on its stomachforward prog- chase enew major appliance within the next year: the ress depending on the mundane realities ofpilparation and distnbution'of food. Similarly, a science may be population might be the entire United States population of working age and the information sought might be the said to progress on its methods,the production of sub- $ amount of unemployment. The groups that are interested stantive knowledge, .basic or applied. depending on the mundane techniques for collecting, .analyzing, and in- in the results of such surveys' and hence commission them or carry them out vary enormously. -Besides agen- terpreting data In the centennial issue of Science. Nobel cies cif the federal government such as the Ctstis Bureau laureate Herbert A. Simon writes: and the Department of Agriculture, they include com- An important part of the history of the social sci- mercial polling firms, organizations specializing in filar- ences over the past 100 years, and of their prospepts ket research, university-based research mystitutes and for the future, can be wntten in terms of advances state and local govemmebts. iri the tools for empirical observations and in the . growing bodies of data produced by those 'tools Surveys can be classified by whelh.er they involve only one interview or repeated interviews with the saw re-re- (1980: 72). .-. spondents. A methodologically influNtial one-time (or This is not to say that methodology alone can create cross-sectional) survey was the Equality of Educational or advance sciencethe most sophisticated method used Opportunity Study. which collected° data on some mindlessly can produce, at best.- only pyrotechnics to 570,000- school pupils 60,000 teachers,and 4,000 dazzle the uninitiated. It is the thoughtful development schools. The study asked questions about the effect of of specialized methods. their careful application to sub' school facilities, teacher characteristics, and home sit- stantive problems, and the thorough and balanced ex- uations on students' educational arforinance Its anal- position to the lay public as well as to the technically yses and reanalyses, discussion and controversy gener- versed scientific community (exposition that_stresses the ated mpch heat but also shed much methodological light . , limitations of the,methods as well as their, strengths) that on succeeding studies (see Mosteller and Moynihan, shed the bright and steady light by which science can4 1972). Surveys that rePeatesily interview the same re- make its way forwird: Our confidence in our knowledge spondents are Called longitudinal or panel surveys They about the social world depends to a large extent upon have major advantages over one-time surveys in their ouryconfidence in the research methods employed to se- ability to follow individual changes Over time and thus cure aft knowledge. illuminate the social processes that are at work. Thus the It is methods for large-scale social science research Panel Study of fricome Dynamics (Morgan, 1977) can that concern us here. Social science research has become describe those Americans who aresetsistently poor (that a national resource. Its findings are mined toprovide is, below the poverty line year after year), and contrast insights about social processes useful for both basic re- them with (unifies who dip below the,poverty Lee only search and social policy Vplications. They inform the once in a_decade of interviewing, Similarly, the Fames t " e Surt'ev itf et.hods.591 Study, also called th'e National LOngitudinal Studies on a few of the outcome measures in favor if the furl- (BMby et al., 1977), can investigate the long-term ef- - year Head Start group were found. fects of chronic teenage unemployment on future Jabor Qiiasi-experiments are fraught, ;ith inferential (lin- (ores participation. gers. A well designed and analyzed qu4si-experiment' . Surveys can also be classified as to whether they are wakes in eryeffort 'tu separate tlie effects due to the seeking information about a sy stem "as, it stand's,: per- 6rogram from effeLts due to other causes For example.. haps in older to establish a baseline against which to such inVestigations must always ask 'w nether self- measure the effeLt of a policy change. or about the ipipaLt selection to the program by thos-e most likely to benefit of a program change after it has been implemented, either from it causes the program to appear more cffeLtie than in full or on an experimental .basis The Current Popu- it would be if offered to the fenetral population. Con- lation Survey (CPS), carried out each month by the Cen- ersely, selection of those most in need Orthe'program sus Bureau to mea,AF-; among other things, the amount niay also seled those leaba able to benefit and thus make of employment and unemployment, is an ,example of a the program appe:a'r less effeLlie than it should. How sureymea?unng a current conditiori, as Was the sdey er niuLh care Is exerwsed, such isolavon of program el- Londuued to measure equality of eduLationalopportu: feLts is never Lompletely possible in qi}asreveriments nay Surreys d'esign'ed to measure the impact of a pro- -Thus unambiguous Lausal'st,itemeuts bold statements gram or policy Lhange can be roughly dRided into those that tfwe,program.Laused the oakome Cannot he made, embedded in quasi-experiments and those embedded it cam miasicemerimeins true sociarexperiments. I for this reason that. true social experiments,' the Quasi-experiments' using surveys fall into two broad other pplkation of surveys to evaluating the impaLt of Llasses. The interrupted time-series design LolleLts data program change or innovutiontremounted Here a pro- from thesame people or ,from ,the same population for posed poll.-3,-+nnoauoil is implemented experimentally a Lonsiderable period of time before and after some pal -, among a.rtintlettiLt (post,' group of potential partki- icy change or intervention ocLurs. The data from the pants, with anotherItindemIt (Rosengroup serving as "before.' period gives some indication of the trends in a Lontrol to evaluate outcomes in the abseike of the the phehomenon and its variability in the absenLe pf any programIt is the act of randomization that makes the intervention. These provide a yardstick with which to controj and experimental groups the same before the measure the effect 'of the interention and to gauge program is introduced and thus permits pro.babilistiL whether a discontinuity in the tube series at the pony of ses,ment of Whether any subsequent differenLes between intervention represents a real change. This use of surveys them are effects of the program has had little large-scale applicittion to date because no The earliest of these targe-sLale true social experi- sufficiently long, valid, and Lredible time series have ment; was the Nev. Jersey Negative Income Tax Ex- existed The massne data collection anthdoLumerhation perinferit, and this was followed by several other inLome efforts detailed in the present paper may well yield such maintenance experiments across the country The pur- time series for future use pose of these siludie; was tcr find out whether a govern- The second kind of quasi-experimental use of sur- ment- supplied inconisupplemeneto poor people would Heys seeks data from groups in the* neilv program and reducetheir incentive to work The findings indicate that ") also from control groups. The control groups are &Awned littledisincentive is created for primary w age eamek, to be as like the program groups as possible on the vari- but slightly more exists for secondary wage earners. ables that are expected to influence responses to programs Other large-scale social experiments he investigated or to be important as alternatie explanations for Lhahges the effects'of offering housing allovances and differing in the program groups. For example, the study or the health insurance plans. - impact ofProjectHead Start,conductedbyte Wesrting- Surveys in their anous forms are one of the tools that house Learning Corfporation and Ohio UnR.ersity under Herbert Simon refers to in the passage quoted earlier in contract with, 0E0 in 1968-1969, used 1,980 first-, this esay, as providing a growing body of data. But second -; and third-grade students from 104 Head Start Simon goes on to say, centers and a matched group of nonparticipating children It is perhaps not important that we have more in- from the saint schools as controls in conducting the e alu- formation than our ancestors, it is vitally important ation (Granger et.al., 1969): The two grobps were match- that we have better information. A major part of the ed on the key variables Of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and effort of ,trained social scientists had gone intro im- kindergarten attendance. The.socipeconornic status of the proving, our techniques for making the kinds of measurements that I have just enumerated (essen- two groups was made as comparable as possible by the tially survey data] (1980: 72). use ofstatistical technique called analysis of covariance.. Small but statistically significant differences onfew of Two key aspects of Proper surveys in which methodo- the outcome Measures infaor of the full-year Head Start logical advances make possible the gathering.of better group were found. . information are sampling and standardization. A survey fi ), 592 SSRC FIVE-YF NR OUTLOOK . . . c . as used to obtain informatiog. not from ev ery,member past eve may perceive ths methodological et'v ances that of the population, but only from a sample-selected using reflect-their influential'images onto the mars ahead probability methods. If the sample is drawn in a properly random manner (and not haphaZardly, for.examPle: or TOTAL SURVEY VARIABILITY by the use, of volunteers, or those eo.nveniently at haficl). then the results of the surve5' can be generalized to the Although survey's- and experiments ate conducted 'using population from which /he sample was drawn. The sec- samples of individuals,- their purpose as we have seen' ond key attribute of a proper survey is that its.procedures is to learn more about the bro%der population from which are standardized--it uses prescribed forms of questions the 'sample is taken. That information may range from . and standardized methals.of asking them. the answers to,such relatively simple questicC as "What In one way or.anotNkr, sampling and .stand4rdization proportion -of the population is female" through more to obtain valid measurement are the themes of this paper. alffieult Or sensitive ones such.as "What is the average What are the methods that social scientists and statisti- arMual expenditure for medical care for members of the s clans have devised for making surveys. yield better-in-o populationr on up to'Auct conceptually complicated formation? Probability sampling methods hate a long 'ones as "What 'effect on tlik incenti /e to work among history of theoretical development, but recently meth- the members of -this population would an income sup,- o odological attention has turned to those factors that can -plement have?" In all cases: it is correct answers to these destroy thevalueofAnfonnon from surveys even when questions forsthe population that are of interest, not an- probability tramples are employedproblems of non- swers [fiat are'coi-rect only forthe people surveyed, nor response and mistaken responses. Peeling away thean- answers'that are incorrect even for the'people surveyed a13%ty originating from thesebextraneous sources puri- .and, hence, of course. incorrect for the population fies our information. giving us more confidence in its As the results of surveys becothe moreimportant for validity f societyfor example, as unemployment statistics from 41. What k the effects of differing decisions about the the Current Population Survey,' ,(CPS) become the basis standardized procedures fora particular survey' Dots' for distributing Wml fuilds,as citiZe9s', expre'ssed it matter whether the interviewing is (Ririe in person or opinions on issues of qie day come to shape the platforms' on the telephone? Does the form, context. orordenng. (and later the policies) of political candidates, as poll of questions make a difference in the estimates prepared results. rightly o'r wrongly, become the basis for includ- from the surveys? As research is done to answer those ing or excluding a third-party Presidential candidatefrom and related questions. we lea-rn more about the validity, nationally televised campaign debatesit becomes more and generalizability of the information given us by sur- and more important to make these results as accurate as veys and are more able to improve thetn. possible. Efforts to improve the accuracy of surveys (and This paper discusses some of thd methods that have other data collection methods) focus on the sources of been and are being developed to reduce the fuzziness of inacciiracies, the underlying assumptioh is (Fiat if such the knOwledge gained from large-scale surveys and ex- sources can .be identified they can eventually he con- periments. Ideally we should like to go out into the world trolled, or at 'the very least. their effects-can be taken' '------with a coherent theory of human behavior and a fool7 into account in the interpretation of results proof machine for measunng the effects brought about To address sources pf inaccuracy many investigators by our precisely specified causes. But usually our the- use the concept of total, swvey error and several models ories are stated only in, broad and general terms. We have been developed to opefationalize the concept (e. g often have only approximate ideas about causality. Our Lessler, 1979, see Mosteller; 1978 for a simple technical ability to measure effetts is limited by- the extraneous exposition of the Census Bureau Model} Weshall, use variability ii our measurements brought about not only the blueprints of these models to guide our exploration by the process of samplingPut also by the standardization, of the effects of variability in surveys decisions made in, any particular)r)ase. Our ability to This is jhe first of many times in this paper that the measure effects is also Milted b people's insistence on notion of a model appeals. What. is a mode' Itisa" acting like human beingsrefusing sometimes to answer formal expressionof a theory or a set of causes that the our questions, insisting sometimes on their own inter- proposer regards as havinggenerated the observed data pretatifins of meanings rather than the ones we have in In statistics such.a model is Bsually expressed in sym- 'mind. and so on.. It is to the &pa` ration of these extrane- bolsand thus )6 a mathematical model While architects ous sources of variability' fr m the actual measurement and engineers construct scale models of their projects, pf the phenomena of interest that 51 turn as we examine the model of the statistician is not this sort of.scaled- is a the concept of total survey variability. - . down but concrete represent'a'tion of an object. It In the prpcess we hope to see where, new, advances,(-model of an abstract process, usually greatly simplified, will arise. It is difAcult (perhaps impossible) to shine a and used frequently to explore how varying the inputs beacon into the futurebut if we illuminate the recent affects the outputs of thatT process .A bettetanalogy than 4 ..? ; 4, u"" Av. Surrey ,Meihods593 the model of the architect-or the engineer is the animal 'sample. (For a pr9bability sample everyone on a list, model of the biologist. In a toxicological study using an called the "framF,"'u hut defines the population, has animal model, the assumption is made that the N ital proc- 4 know n.non-zero probability of being included in the esses of the animal are sufficiently like those of a human sample and all samples have known probability of being being that tnformation about the drug's effects on the -chosen. The pwrobability sample is fully realizedin this animal will have some value in understanding its effects case,:---if all people chosen for the sample respond with on humans. There is, however, no assumption that the data on the item asking for income.),Dieferent samples animal is "just like" a human being. Similarly, a sta- would, of course, include' different people, and thus tistical model is not "justilike" the /procesit represents, would be likely to yield" slightly different' results when rather it abstracts out the most saliencelements of the 'average income is calculatedConceptually the meas- process for study urement of this variation over samples is the measure- , Statistical models serve ..as thi. core of surveys and ment of sampling error. For a particular sample, sam- expenments. The income",ni.iintepance experiments were pling error is defined as the difference between the guided by a model Jbat suggested that earned income if the average income of the popillation derived depends on the amqjiAt of incogie Supplement and other from the sample and the true average ihcotne of the variables The pufpos'e of the experiments was to find- popultion that would have been obtained. if every one out how this dependence is expressed Thus certain quan- listed in the frame had been asked the sabre question title's in the model (e.g°., amountilbf income supplement abput income at the, same time that the people in the given) v.ere khowrr for each participant Other quantities sample were asked it. Clearly the size of the error in any in the model, the parameters, were unknown, and the given sample is,unknownif the true population average purpose of the expenment was to estimate them. Does income were aNailable for comparison, there would be doabling an income supplement reduce earned income little point in carrying out the survey in the first place. by one- third? By-one-half? More Less? Nevertheless, the variability' associated with these errors It is largely through the proposing, estimating, testing, over all possible samples is known from statistical theory rtfizing, re-estimating, retesting, and re-refining of and it can be estimated from the variation in ayartivular models that social science, its methods, and its appli- set of sample data and the size of the sample. In panic-, cations advance. For example, the massive' systems of ular, as the number of people in he sample (n) increases, structural equations that model economic processes are the probability that many, commonly used sample stans-. the backbone of econometrics, less ambitious structural tics (sample average income in our example) w ill be near equation models are used to model smaller social proc- to-the population parameters they are designed to esti- esses. We shall encounter models of,labor force partic- mate (population average income, in.our case) becomes ipation, marital dissolu,tion and other processes in this larger. In fact, in simple rvidom sampling, the standard 1 paper. but now let us return to a specific kind of model, error, a customary measure of sampling error, decreases that of total survey error. proportionally to 1/\./Ti. Total survey error models partition the total Nanahon Thus,. suppose the Current Population Survey (CPS) in survey responses into several components that can be questioned a simple random sample of'4100 people (al- studied separately. These components include sampling ough CPS actually uses much more elaborate sample response effe ts, nonresponse efftets,. and teigns ;rid questions many more people). If the un- their combinations. The goal is to measure and control ployment rate was found to be 10%, then the esti- the total error by providing.1 a ruathematical. framewor mated standard error would be about 2 percentage points. for examining separate sources of error. When a4real Further, in 95 cases out of 100 the results baed on the survey is evaluated using, the concept of total' survey sample would dgfer rid more than 4 percentage points error, the effect of each component is gauged, and then in either directioNrom what would have been found by the separate effects are synthesized to arrive at a state- interviewing all eligible adults. If, however, CPS ques- ment about the accuracy of the antire purvey. Similarly, tioned 40,000 people and still found the unemployment we will examine in turn the major components, of total rate to be 10%, then the estimated standard error would survey %inability. sampling vanability, response effects, be reduced by a factor of'ten as would the length of the and nonAponse effects, and then look at some progress "95% confidence interval" described.above. ' , being made in synthesizing these ideas in measuring the 'accuracy of surveys. NONSAe/GVARIABILITY But all this assumes an ideal worldamong other things SAMPLING VARIABFLITY e it assumes that the fiame is an accurate representation For concreteness in defining sampling variability or sam- of the population to which we want to generalize, that pling error,let us think about estimating the average everyone chosen for the sample provides data on income, income for a population from a fully realized probability that the researcher and the respondent share the same F," .4"1-Rk) 594SSRC FIVI' -'r AR otr I i 00K I definition.of "income." that respondents remember cur- will be followeclhere, although the ialegones and the, , rectly and-tell the truth, and that nobody makes a.mistake variables within them interact. For example, a question' in copyingslown the answer. It is to these nonsampling fo'rm that gives valid data in a face-to-face situation may errors. that much interest has recently turned, as results be inappropriate in a mail survey. of surveys are taken seriously by the public and policy - 4 makers. ror in some ways they are harder to understand Respondent EffectsDifferences, in respondent charac- and control ihan sampling errors.- They cannot. for in- teristics. in general, ought to 'create real 'response dif- stance. be decreased just by increasing the size of the ferences, not ones that might be ealled."errors."- Thus sample. as James A. Davis' '(1975. 42) has putit. the whole point off, a surv'ey, for example. might be to \/ii wrongs do not make a right find out if respondents, who differ on whether they live', 4110346. Nonsampling Variability or,srrors can be subdivided with a spouse or live separately also differ in income into nonresponse variability or errors (people are left out Respondents may also posseZs other charaetertslics that of the frame.- left out of the sample. or do not answer predispose them to give particular sorts of responses, specific questions) and response or "measurement" var- such as a need for apprtA'al. a propensity' to acquiesce, iability Of effects or errors (answers are obtained. but are or.a.wish to give sociallydesirable answers These pre- in some sense ''wrong"). We will first consider response4 dispositions. unrclated4to the content of the researcher's errors. a problem that has, attracted a(iod deal of at- questiori, are called "response sets Thus, if unmarried tentionin recent years.4. heads of households tend to.give more socially desirable 6 raponses than do married ones. they might exaggerate ItT4 Response Effects their income and the true relationships between marital Different types of questions. are asked in surveys. There42, status and income would he obscured Measures of such are factual or behavioral 'questions (How old are you a "response set" are hence often included, in question- Have you ever been arrested?) for which there is1t "true" naires so that their impact can be ccintrolled But some i'nditates (Bradburn et al 1979) that ' answer' that can, at JeasIt in theory. be ascenained,ini recent research checking the survey response against. 'At the other end "response sets" may not be arniaftsuLbe elininated ofa sc* of concreteness are attitude questions (no 1,ou but real personality traitsPeoptewho score higRs on feet that-the President's policies are sound? Would you .these measures seem to live in limited social enviror ...... instalrmSulation in your home if fuel oil pnces tripled'?) ments. They report low levels of behaviors such as 4:).- r which there is no external source of a"true" ansver. ciabilitydrinking. intoxication., and marijuana use. not here are continuing debates about whether the concept because 'they "are manipulating the image they present of "true".answer is even applicable in such cases,,, and in the interview situation, but because [they)have dif- an extensive literature on the matchor lack of match fererft life,experiences and behave differently from per- between expressed attitudes and actual behaviors: see. sons with lower scores" (p. 103).5 e.g., Deutscher. 1973. In addition. there are questions Memory is another respondent variableIn factuar that are indeed behavidralHave you been the victim questions. a respondent must be able to remember cor- of an unreported crime this month?for which no easy rectly in order to give an accurate answer. Two kinds outside venficanon is possible. For current purposes a of memory errors can be distinguished. forgetting, and distinction between factual and attitudinal questions is what has come to be known as the "telescoping" of helpful. With factual questions we may certainly speak time. In the latter, events, purchases. or victimizations, of response "errth-s" when the answer in the survey does etc. are reported as happening more recently than they not match a publicly recorded fact, while with attitudg, actually did. (This moving of events td more recent times questions we should speak of response "effects': if two is the usual meaning of "telescoping": there is some different methods m a survey produce two different an- evidence, however, that telescoping may sometimes swers. That, is,if a higher percentage of (respondents mcrVe events into the more distant past.) answers "yes" to the question "Do you agree withthe These phenomena wofk in opposite directions in pro- President's policies?" than answers "no" to the reversed ducing response errors, forgetting leads to underreporting question "Do you disagree with the President's poli- the number of events in a time period, and telescoping cies?" we have a response effect attributable to question typically leads to overreporting Forgetting can be min- wording. imized by using such memory jogs as "aided recall" Three broad classes of response effects can be iden- (perhaps betteicalled recognition) in which the respond tified (Sudman and Bradburn:41974). those originating ent.is read or shown a list of the events that may have with characteristics of the respondent, those originating happened, and asked to indicate with a yes or no answer with characteristics of the interviewer (or with the in- whether indeed they have, but this may increase tele- teraction between characteristics of the interviewer and scoping. The encouragement of respondents to take the those of the respondent), and those originating in the time to find records of expen4itures on such items as social situation of the interview. This three-fold division health care and home improvements offers increased 2o6 Tht 9 Survey Methods595 accuracy and controls telescoping, but is of little use been used by the' Michigan Time-Use survey, where it when records are fragmentary or non was found* to give results comparable to those obtained T.o.,control telescoping a technique called "bounded by more usual diary methods. recall' has been useful in panel studies where respond- ents are interviewed repeated4 (Neter_ andWaksberg. Interitewer EffectsThe second sort of response effects -1964) At the start of the second 'and subsequent inter- are those due' t1:21 interviewer characteristics dr to the in-'N views, respondents are reminded of what they haVe pre- teracyon .o f t ho§e characteristics with those of the re- viously reported and asked what has occurred since those spondeht. The change of thetU.S. Census after 1950 to events Clearly the interviewer needs an easily available mostly self-reporting came about because analysis showed and extensive furld orniformation on the respondent for that enumerator effects, while not themselves terribly ., this technique to be used conveniently; and in this con- ,large, con'stituted a major part of the total variability of nection Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing the Census.. (CATIsee below) offers tremendous possible-benefits. A recent review of the literature (Sudman .rind Brad- As the length of ti,t1P.Vv.;e'en interviews increases, the burn, 1974), however, found evidence of only weak amount forgotten increases, but the amount of tele4Cop- effects in this category. Matches between interviewer ing decreases, cony ersely, as-the amount of lime between and respondent on such c;har4zrisycs as gent* 6r race interviews decreases, telescoping increases and forget- tend to affect on4 those questarsfhat relate directly to ting decreasesThis relationship suggests thatthere the matched variable. Thus Blacks tend to give more might be an optimum spacinglietv._een intery tews so that militant answers to Black intert iewers than to white the effects of the two phenomena tend to cancel out. onesraising he question of which answer is closer to (See Sudman and Bradburn, 1973). the "true" attitude orbehavior. When such en interac- Problems with faulty memory can be avoided by ask- tion is thought to be important, the sample Lan be `split ing people to keep diaries of their time use. This.approach between makhed and unmatLhed interviewer-respondent has been employed in basic research on participation in pairs and any response effects that arise be reported as labor both in the home and outside- it (e.g., Berk and part of the data. -Berk, 1979, and the Time Use Survey being conducted at the University of Michigan, see, for example Stafford Interview Effects' Far more important than the prevwus and Duncan,' 1979; Hill and Juster, .1979). Government two categories in creating response effects are variables surveys by the Census Bureau 'have used -expenditure having to do withAe task confronting the respondent diaries to investigate purchase of small: easily forgotten and interviewer;and with the social situation in whith items. and these.data are used by the Bureau of Labor they find themselves. Statistics to help decide when items included in the Con- Comprehension and commtinication are 'the first in- sumer Price Index ought to be revised (Hoff and Thomp- terview-variables, for the investigator and the respondent son, 1980). Gasoline purchase, dianes havrbeen used must understand the question and the possible answers by 'the EnergyInformation Agency to supplement the the same .way. tome startling examples of misunder- data gathered from the tesidential energy consumption standing have bpen reported (Kalton and Schuman, survey (Thompson, et al., 1980). But diaries are costly, 1980). Respondents ignored a carefully worded defini- 110 possibly incomplete, and respondent cooperation is dif- tion of "a rooQI" when reporting on the number of rooms ficult to obtin'and often deteriorates with time (Kalton in their home (after all, they know what a room is, and and Schuman, 1980). nobody has to tell them how to count). And only one Some of these problems can least be addressed. For of 246 respondents to a question of "What proportion example, incentive payments h ye increased the com- of your evening viewing time, do you spend watching pletion rate of diaries (Thompson, et al., 1980), and tape news programs?" could specify how to work out the recording can be effective for groups who may have proportion. (Perhaps someone does have to tell respond- difficulty writing dianes (Sudmapi and Ferber, 1971) ents how to do complicated counting.) Fitting question Another approach is to employ electronic "beZpers." wording to respondents' understanding, asking for clar- One group of researchers gave a sample of adolescents ification, and asking parallel questions with consistency these electronic paging devices: through which signals checks move in the direction of improving comprehen- were transmitted at random times ICsikszentmihalyi, sion and commNication. Larson, and Prescott, 1977). The youths were quite co- Modeof presentation is a second interview variable. operative in pausing in their activities to fill out a brief AlthOugh the popular image of a survey taker is probably questionnaire about what they were doing, with whom, that of an earnest female interviewer ringing the doorbell and how they felt about it. (Most time was passed watch- of one of the,dhosen, in many surveys no interviewer ing TV, or in conversation with peers; only 184 of the appears at all. Some are conducted by mail, with the adblescents' time was spent studying or working.) This- respondent filling out the questionnaire alone, and many seems a technique with wider applicability and has also are conducted bytelephone. Mail and telephone surveys no,...4c 4 596 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK are less expensive than those conducted in person, soit those of the respondent, but as we have seen, lackof becomes important to find out whether they produce dif- such matching produces resporise effects only on the ferential response effects. No method has been shown questio'ns to which, such attnbutes aremost salient to give clearsupenor results fir all kinds of questions One mode of presentation tends to increase anonymity (Sudman and B burn, 1974). because it never forces respondents to tell whether or not There are essentially no differences between telephone the sensitive question has been answered. and hence and in-person modes for nonsensitive questions (Groves ought to dedrease response effects The randomizqd re- and Kahn, 1979), nor even on sonSewhat sensitive ones sponse technique (Warner, 1965)requires a respondent where external valicluy checks are possible. For example; to do some kind of randomization to determinewhether while 5761% of the noninstitutionalized J.S. population the sensitive question or an innocuous one is to be an- actually voted in the ,1972 Presidential eleCtion, overre- swered. Simple probability calculations then' give an es- porting of voting occurred at al same level timate of the number in the sample who agreed with the among those interviewed in son and those interviewed sensitive question, without revealing which ros ondents by phone in the Groves andahn study (66.6% and did so. The technique h*, been found to reduce dB orted 69.1% claimed to have voted in 41K . 209 7 598. SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 4, . Itages of questionnaire construction, when the,freely consistency might cause 'answers to earlier questions to influence later onesresporldents express less 'confi- chosen wording of pre-test respondents is crucial to the / construction of response categories to be used in the dencd in institutions when such questions are asked after' closed questions for the bulk of the survey ones onpolitical alienation than when they are asked Long questions ale in bad repute for slowing flown before (Turner and Krauss, 1978); (4) Later questions the Mee ofehe interview and supposedly confusing re- in a lengthy questionnaire may be -answered in a 'per- functory manner because of fatigue. In a variant ofthis -sponderkts. Recent studies, however, have experimented. in lengtftening questions by atiidingreduridant or inele- problem, fewer incidents of victimization were reported in- Vant matenal without complicating them. (For example, if the questionnaire was structured so that detailed instead of "What health problems have you had in the formation for each incident was requested immediately past year'' one might say "The nextquestion asks about after the incident was mentioned than if the respondent health problems dunng the last year. This is somelhing was encouraged to list all incidents ofvictimization be- we ask eNeryone in" the survey. Whathealth problems fore being asked to describe any one in detail (Biderman have you had in the past 'ear ? ") The result is sometimes et al., 1967); and' (5) The oppositeof a fatigue effect respondent and - a longer 'Answer from the respondent andfrequently a may occur, with the rapport between 2 more accurate one, in the sense that more events are interviewer growing as the interview proceedsthus, re4orted. Longer answers seem to be given even for sensitive or threatening questions are often placed late shorter questions when ,they are mixed in with long ones in an interview when rapport is presumably high. affect ina questionnaire (Cannel!, 1977)Perhaps the utter- In particular, questionnaire context may well ave few everyday implica- viewer is both modeling and reinforcinglonger answers responses to questions that policy'?" by asking longer qugtions. tions ("What is your opini n of U.S. foreign It has long been believed that although changing the vs. ."How manj, childrendO you plan to have?"), to form of the question may change the distribution ofre- questions with ambiguous response categories (very spondents among the response categories (e.g., if one happy, pretty happy, vs. one child, two children, etc.), asks "Are you in favor bf E4?",instead of "What and to questions on somewhat vague or amorphous con- is your opinion of ERA, are youin favor, neutral, or cepts (attempted assault as opposed toactual assault as opposed'?" one is likely to get different percentages of forms of victimization; Turner; 1980). Severalexperi- responses reporting themselves in favor of theamend- ments, across survey organizations but atapproximately ment), the correlation between answers to such a ques- the,same time, are currently addressing these context tion and other variables would not change with the form effects.8 problem of question. This is the notion of "form-independent In addition, light could perhaps be shed on the correlation." Recently as' part of a continuingprogram' of context dependency if. investigators were toswitch which forms are sus- of research on qqestion effects, questions onattitudes focus from the question., asking about foreign governments sometimes included an option ceptible to contextual effects, to the individual, or per- is of "no opinion" and sometimes required respondents haps type of individual, asking what sort of person to volunteer thatlithey had no opinion if that werethe affected by context. Is it the better- or more poorly- case. Not onlydid the percentage of responderits re- educated person whose thinking changes with the context the porting "no opinion" increase whenthcalternative was in which a question is asked; those who have given explicitly offered, as expected; but the correlation be- matter a great deal of thought: or thosewho have not issues? Of course, these tween items asking opinions of differentforeign gov- yet thought deeply about the ernments changed as well (Schuman andPresser, 1978). variables are more difficult to study than those relating Similarly, the correlation between change in interest in to types of questions, for variablesrelating to individuals logically religion and change in attendance at, religious service (other than demographic variables) are most ad- appeared stronger when the two questions had,similar studied in a test-retest design, which is difficult to response categories (Duncan and Schuman,1980). minister, and has artifactual problems of its own, rather toinvestigate The context in which a question is askedthe ordering than the typical splitballottechnique used of of qttestions, inclusion of other questions, the very ar- the effects of context variations over aggregates rangement of A questionnairecanproduce response people. .v - question'naire may The ordenng of the questions within aquestion- The very appearance of a self-report naire max produce effectsthrough several mechanisms produce response effects, especially 'inaccuracy. The ' variants of (Sudman and Bradburn, 1974): (1) Order may influence I980 Census experimental progrIm sent out in 'the salience of topics (with low salience topicsbeing the usual.X.,e,nsus form that were .people-oriented" "cotriputer- most affected because it is'easier to incase salience contrast to the standard fo which is forms, than to reduce it); (2) If there is overlap between ques- oriented" (Bail* and Miskura, 1980). These tions, respondents may be reluctant to be redundant and because of the additional data trscription costs and repeat details they have given earlier; (3) An urge to risks pf error they entail, will have show major ad- .1 " 21 7b- """ / Survey Methods 599 vantages over the machine readable questionnaire in cleaning process and must be replaced by a morecon- mailback rate and data completeness if their usels tobe sistent set of answers. justified. There is reason to believe that both item and unit nonresponse are high and getting higher, even in surveys Current Research ProspectsThe comparison betweeh under government sponsorship. Refusal rates for the modes of interviewing is an area wherewe can expect Current Population Survey (CPS) have risen from 1.8% more research, and perhaps more definitive results over in 1968 to 2.5% in 1976; for the Health Interview Survey the next few years. In particular, the advantages and (HIS) from 1.2% to 2.1% in the same time period (Panel 'drawbacks of CATI will be explored. Systemsare cur- on Privsacy ..., 1979). These numbers are particularly rently being used or developed in surveys by commercial worthy of concernewhen we take into account that both firms, by university-based research centers, and by the these surveys are conducted by the U.S. government, U.S Bureau of the CenSus (Nicholls, et al., 1980).9 The that extensive and increasing efforts are mounted to reach branching flexibility of CATI will produce data thatare respondents initially not found at home, and thht each themselves hierarchical. Statistical methods designedto 1% of the American population represents over two deal with such data sets do not yet exist, we wouldexpect milli& individuals. The problem is not confined to the that the existence of the data sets would stimulati.de- United States, however. Results of the Swedish govern-' velOpment of the methodology. ment Labor Force Survey show refusals have risen from The work of the panel on Survey-based Methods of 1.2% in 1970 to '3.9% in 1977 (Dalenius, 1979). Subjective Phenomena of the Committee on National Even the U.S. Census, to which responding is required Statistics will go a long way in charting thecourse of by law, is not immune. In the 1970 U.S. Census, data future developments in the study of respolseerrors in had to be imputed (filled in) for such items as age (4.5% attitude questions. Other work promises to bring the in- of the respondents) and total family income (for 20.7% sights of cognitive psychology on the functiohing of of families) (Bailar and Bailar, 1979). It is estimated that human memory and coding abilities to bear on problems the 1970 Census undercounted by 21/2% (or about five of question formulation and understanlling of respond- million people) even after adjusting the count whenever ents' answers. there was a shred of evidence to do so. (Housing and 4P . Post Office checks by the Gitisus Bureau on a sampre basis showed that there were some occupied butldings Nonresponse and Nonparticipation Efts for which no residents were counted. This made it pos- We know that those w11,9 clO not answersome Or all sible to adjust the count by adding some five million questions in a survey, Nibo drop out of an experiment, people who had not filled in census forms before that or who are never home% an interviewer, are different estimate of the undercount was calculated.) The problem from those who answer remain, or are at home interms of undercopnting or nonresponse in the 1980 Census is of refusing to answer, copping out and being awayiPom now a major source of legal challenges. home. It is likely that they are different in otherways Given the conflicting pressures it must face, it is re- as well. And if these ways include differences in the markable that the Census can be as accurate as itis. variable(s) the study is. trying to measure (say, income' Many people believe that responding should be made or political opinion), then the results of the survey will. voluntary. Nevertheless, there is both broad support and 6e biased. If, for example, the estimate ofthe average legiglative mandate for allocating funds to localities on income of the' population (or percent in favor ofa can- the basis of the pr,pportion of the residents falling into didate) itbased-otily o data from those whet responded, certain categories. Furth7r, some of the residents in those it could be very diffetint from what would have been very categories strone prefer not to be counted, for estimated if the nonrespondents had also answered. such reasons as the receipt of illegal income, or illegal (Recall that tkraruwe? for the complete samplemay immigrant status. Deciding whether indeed we want the incorporate sampling and response error.) count as accurate as possible or, whether other values It is useful to distinguish between "unit"nonrespon§e have higher priority seems to be an issue. and "item" Ronresponge. In unit nonrespotik, entire Nonresponse is an even greater problem in nongov- sets of data are missing for potential respondents because ernmental surveys. In surveys with varying sponsorship, they were missed in thefieldle.g., were never at home), dealing with varying populations, and using varying def- were missed in the frame (e.g., for data being. collected initions of nonresponse, one study foundnonresponse by telephone surveys, did not have telephones),or re- ranging from a low of about 5% to a thigh of about 87% fused to participate. 1temnonresponse occurs whenan (Panel on Privacy..., 1979). If the current trend con- individual's answers to some parts of a survey instrument tinues, the problem of nonresponse is likely to persist are missing, or are ionsistent (e.g., wage income plug and even to be exacerbated. -Without substantial efforts interest income income from other Sources is greater to curb nonresponse, response rates in major national than tolinme), and so are edited -out in the 'data data collection efforts are likely to continue to drop sti 211 1 600SSW ,iIVI -NI Mt 011100k 70% accounts for that survey results will become practically and scientif- that with a 75% response rate, the first for the other ically useless. Thus the vigorous scientific activitybeing 50% of the cost, and the last 5% accounts devoted to developing methods for reducing npnre- 50%5Especially for surveys under government aus- of local everiunentai sponse, for adjusting it when it does occur,and for prop- pices, enlisting the cooperation a$ professional organizations has proved helpful erly analyzing the resulting data are crucial tocontinued bodies Incentives to respondents seem to tie -zoo(' quality data frogi survey, (Morris, 1979) somewhat useful (In the 'Health InsuranceStudy, how- backing, apparently Substan- Remons jor Noiirt,sponseSeveral reasons for the rise ever, despite governmental 19% nonresponse have been suggested, and somehave tial benefits, and belief in the value of the study, been investigated. Apathy, lack of belief in surveys, and of the invited households refused to participate.) reactions against sales pitches masquerading as surveys At the same time, extreme efforts to decrease nonres- data Some hard- might well lead to refusals. Further, distrust of investi- ponse may degrade the quality of the effort, and gatois- and concern with privacy andconfidentiality, per-' to-locate respondents can be found with extra haps heightened by requests'for informed consent (Dal - the inclusion of their data will increase the response rate Those who emus,1979), may well produce both unit and item and probably the accuracy of the estimates refuse to participate but are pressured to do soagainst nonresponseIn an experimental survey by Singer perhaps at (1978), a promise of confidentiality consistently de- their will also increase the response rate but ,. For example, creased Jteln nonresponse to sensitive questions. A, the expense of the validity of the estimates reporting of hospitalization experimental survey conductedtinderthe-auspices in one study' the inaccurate the overall of the Panel on Privacy and Confidentiality asFactors by such' hard-core nonrespondents caused be worse than it' these (1979. 116) fourid steadily decreas- estimates of hospitalization rates to in Survey Response al., ing percentages of unit nonresponse(both refu>.als and respondents had never seen questioned (Cannell et total noninterviews) witt increasing assurances of con- 1978) by per- fidentiality, but the differences were stall(Perhaps the Some nonresponse can be "defined away" individual, or by substi- differences were small because the Ce sus spons9rship mitting others to answer for an adults are of the study, produced relatively low nonre.ponse rates, tuting for respondents In household surveys, the activities regardless of promised level of confidentiality )We can often permitted to act as informants as to respondents as to expect more research on the causes ofrefusals and other of other family -members .as well as their own activities. While this approach isprimarily a nonresponse. reducing callbacks, it also Nonresponse in the sense of noncoverage in theframe, money saving; technique for reduces nonresponse. In the Charlotte,North Carolina can be, unintentionally introducedin the design stage Interview Survey, for ex\., , (Moms, 1979). For example, a design based on imper- pkfest of the National Health fe3ctly measured variables or those that are subject to ample, it was found that 50% more callbacks were ,re- At andom change will exclude some part of thepopulation. qUired when each 'member °La) family had to respond let related Consider a frame confined to "low income- people. personally thaiCvhen the rules were relaxed to and Woolsey, those whose incomes in the critical year were "acciden- adults responti for those absent (Nissdlson been extended tally" higher than their permanent incomes willbe ex- 1959). This sort of proxy reporting has cluded. (Of course, those with "accidentally"lower in- outside the household in network sampling. of this comes Will be mistakenly included.)Similarly, a frame But there is mixed evidence about the accuracy that is constructed to tap large concentrations,of a target procedure, which may sometimes substitute response In victimization surveys one group will often miss atypicalmembers of 'that group: errors for nonresponse thus, a frame using low income census tracts toreach study (Biderman et al.,'1967) found that many more happening to low income people would miss low income peopleliving offenses were repoi-ted by respondents as themselves,than to other members of theirfamilies. An- in high income tracts , otherstudS, (Ennis, 1967) reports accurateresults for of critne Reducing NonresponseCertainly the preferred method Flute household informants but underestimates of dealing with nonresponse is taleep it fromhappening, Pleates when the method was used for Black families. though such procedures are often veryexpensive. Thus E/identle for the policy implications of thes.e strategies of youth a battery of techniques hasbeen.developed with thegen- /can be found in discrepancies in the estimates 'major social eral aim of encouraging the chosen respondents to par- unemploymept, currently regarded as a the' New York Times.,, ticipate: or oebsystematicallysubstituting other inform- problem. On Febtuary 29, 1980, SurvOs ofdikaborr'l ants or respondents in the field. reported that the National Longitudinal 19.3% of whitel Enco'f ragement to respond takes, many forms.In de-..Force Experience (NLS) had found the unemployed signing' eld operations, stress isplaced-on training,m- and 38_8% of)3Iack_youths ages 16-21 were of Labor Sta- terviewers to understand ,the purpose of thestudy' and. in Spring, 1979;, at that time, the Bur/eau tistics' figures, based on, the CurrentPopulation Survby to establish rapport with respondents.Callbacks are rou- (CPS), showed the 'raie to be 14.1674 and 28%fo'r white tine (though expensive; survey organizations estimate ,212 .0 ° 4 - Survey Methods601 and Black youths, respectively. The report, one of the for apprecitible nonresponse? It is logically impossible first outputs from new cohorts in the NLS, prepared for to do nothing. simply to drop the nonresponding units the Labor Department by the Center for Human Research from the sample is to do something, for any estimation at Ohio State Unfversity, credited thisdifference to the procedures that are then Implemented tacitly assume that. fact that youths-themselves were interviewed by NLS, nonresponders are just like responders and that the results rather than other family members such as heads of house: of the survey would not have changed had they, re- holds as is done in CPS. It would appear that a difference sponded. Doing nothing implies a very specific but sim in a methodological procedure increased estimates of the ple model. that the forces that prevented some people size of the unemployment problem' anong youths by from responding are unrelated to the variables of interest, about one-third. so that the distnbutjon of norirespondents on these var- Many surveys permit substitution, either at random iables is no different from the distribution of respondents. from a similar group or by propinquity, for samplemem- Similarly, more complex techniques fof dealing with ' bers who refuse or are unavailable. For example, the missing data also require implicit or explicit models of National Longitudinal Study conducted the National the causes of'nonresponse and.hence of the distribution Centei foe Educational Statistics used random substitu- of nonresiiondentsusually that they are distributed like tion of schools, while the Michigan Survey df,Substance some subset of the respondents having similar measured U`Se permitted the substitution olhouseholds adjacentto chSractenstics (covanates), but sometimes that they dif- the one designated in the sample. Old-fashioned quota fer from respondents in systematic ways (as would be sampling permitted interviewers to' choose their own re- true if, for example, the probability that people would spedents as long as "quotas" for each sex, age group, report their income were proportional to income) race, etc: were met No probability mechanism was used. A great number of techniques for dealing with missing As it is currently done by professional pollsters (with data have been developed.," Some techniques reweight mult:gtage area probability sampling down to the block aggregations,of data to take into account missing obser- levAnd then controls on such variablesas gender, age, vations, and others "dB in the blanks," creating pseudb- and employment status), quota sampling can be thought skservations,in place 2fthe missing ones. In either case, of as an extension of such substitutftv rules. There is the analyst dust takinto account that the deta have evidence that this "probability sampling with quotas" been adjusted.tor nonresponse, and that suchadjstments (Sudman, 1967) produces usable results: when the Na- affect estimates of the accuracy of quantities denved ,tional Opinion Research Center split its sample for the from the data. .- 1975 and 1976 Gerieral Social Surveys between true A commonly used means of weighting for missing probability methods and quotas, it found no differences data is called ratio.estimation. It uses'information de- between the two techniques other than a deficit of one rived from other studies °to improveestimation, or two person households in the quota samples (Ste- ,the quantity we wish to:estimate is Y (for examPlelite'\v. phenson, 1978). average income for the population), and that jt:wiebc Because assurances of confidentiality ten increase, estimated by the sample mean,, Y, (the average income response rates, and anonymity is the ultimate in confi- for those in the sample). Assume we also know that Y dentiality, many surveys routinely arrange for question-, is related to another variable, X (say number of peopl nairesto be filled out anonymously. But anonymity can- per room in living quarters), foi- which we know both", not be maintained easily in longitudinal studies requiring the mean' for the respondents in the,-samples x (mean, repeated contacts, and itis seriously compromised in number of people pet room in the sample), and the meant personal and telephone interviews. Methods to increase for the total .population, X,.frorri another source such as confidentiality irrlongitudinal studies are discussed under the Census. If we then make the addltional assumption that heading. In telephone interviews, respondentsma that the ratio of the mean number of people pEr room ; 'return calls in order to preserve anonymity, a procedure in the sample to the mean number of people perroom that also purportedly reduces' unit nonresponse. Most in the population is the saw as the Orresponding ratio special efforts to insure confidentiality in telephone and of mean income between the sample and the population in-personinterviews deal with particularly .sensitive = yil), we can use this relation to adjust 37, to y' questiorjothowever, and are aimed at reducing item non- = .57(gri)." resunE and inaccuracy. Mailbacks of answers to spe- A, ratio adjustment for nonresponse was Used, forex- cific questions have been used and in some cases the ample, to correct for response bias in the 1975 Survey . randomized response technique reduces item, nonre: of 4cientific and Technical Personnel (Tupek, and Rich- sponse (Boruch and Cecil, 1979). . ardson, 1978). It was found that large firms were Yeast likely 'to respond to the -survey. The total number of Adjustment for Norgesponse12espite:lbe best efforts 'employees in the firms in each size stratum was known- of survey designers and field staff; nonresponse, both from.other sources and the ratio ?f scientific and technical% unit and item, frequently occurs and must be taken into employees to total employees remained constant. Hence, account. What then can be done, after the fact; to adjust it was possible to use the ratio of the total employees-in -4 ! 4o, 2 1,3 1 .0 - 602 SSRC 11 \IF-YEAR .00 11.001: trocessed, an. that adjustment class. Other variations, the rePortingfirms'InIhe stratum to tota a all firms in tlie.ktratuln to adjust the esti *possible by advances in computer science random anedynaac crdtion.of the adjustment classes,- of scientific and technical personnel in eac ess, - ose a donor within theadjustment' Class on critena In the Health Intel-view. Su-Iveyrespondents "` `.34 AB. introduce 'viewed face-to-lace, and askell among..otherqueV4Alf of nearness on further important variables. or 0-randomness into the process of choice of a donor. whether the household has a telephone.. Recend ° vestikators (rhomherry, and Massey, 1978) found that Sands, 1979). making estimates from health charaCteristics differ between households.with and . Carts must be exercised when hedause the im- without telephones; they developed a ratio estimator that data that have been partially imputed putation changes the estimated accuracy of the estimates. .4 could be used to adjust estimates of health characteristics for the bias arising from noncoverage of houkeholds Further, the sample size for any item is the number of should without phones, if the survey were redesigned to be done respondents actually giving data"for that item and imputation: via telephone. The form of the ratioestimator should be not be'considered inci'eased`by the imputation (Rubin, valuable for other, similar surveys. This inquiry- repre- A new idea is a process of multiple 1978; 1979). Here the analyst repeatedly uses anim- - sents basic 'research .4.1g. .. 1.. , Surrey' 'thuds6Q5 in time (Singer and Spilqrman, 1976/)It is always im- challenge to arrange a computer file thatinc udes all the portank-pnor to data'collection, to consider what models data for- all respondents. will be fitted, because data irrelevant for ant---norel can The simple solution allots each respOndent the space he crucial for others For example, do we want to meas- necessary to record the 'data for the respondent with the ure current state.only) Duration in current stag'' Number most job changes. This creates In ea4ly used,"rectan- of switches in state during the period between interviews') gular" file but uses a great deal of computer space b- Research is neededon design for panel studies to fa- optimaland increases the time necessary lo jaccess any cilitate discrimination between models fitted to the same piece of data. Another strategy us to usehierarchical, 'fragmentary data Such fesearch shoUlil address ques- non-rectangular file structure. This economizes oncom- tions ofzthe Optimuin spacing between inter, iew s 'tt bat puter space and access time but creates the need for new ante problems of reliability of retrospecuorr!,ersus costs computational and statistical methods. Such issues of and delays of reinterviewing '(Sitiger and Spderman. file organization and their consequeneet constitutean i I976).'' active resyarch area (see, e.g..Ramsby, 1977); never-, An application of a-colitinuous time model ha'scome theless data files are already beginning jo become avail- out .of the longitudinal data generated. by the Income able,in longitudinal form.'`' . 7 Maintenance Experiments (Tema. 'Hannan. and 'Gro- Another challenge forrfile or /anon for longitudinal -- eneveld. 1979)Three models (one time independent. data ansQs from the need to arious levels of anal- one contrasting the first six. months of the experiment to. ysis. Often a survey is conducted so that locations (f(57:' the succeeding 18 months.,,and one- looking at four suc- example. housing units) are sampled. Within the housing cessive six -month periods) were used to Inv estigate,the units ahouseholds, made .up of individuals. Typically impact of support levels on attrition (or withdrawal) from separate computer file is mamtamed for locationsAir the experiment, and on marital dissolution and remar- households, and perhaps for individuals. We can easily riage The findings showed no. effect of support level on visualize an investigation where we find that an individ- 2 attrition (cheeringly enough), no systematic .effect on ual'has experienced an event (saya robbery ).and we remarriage, but a systematic effect of support level on would then want to ask several levels of questions. Has marital dissolution (Marriages of women receiving in- that person previously been robbed?..1-its anyone else in coi. n e gupplements were considerablymore likelyto the ;,aine hhusehold been robbed? Was any member of breal up than marriages of control women, w h the .the household that 'previously. lived atthis location effect most noticeable during.the first*Isix Months, robbed?.These questions are answerable only if efficient , continuing throughout the two:year period ) Further, the cross referencing Ity.een the several data files has been model contr'astingthefirst six months with-the succeed- provided. 0 :ing-181,closely'Oicted the percent of the sample single 'at each time over the two-year period, suggesting that the two-period model..cmhodied a process of marital dis- RESOURCES OF LONGITUDINAL DATA solution that is compatible with the daia.18 Longitudinal data today represent an underutilizedre- source. We are just beginning to explore the richness of the data sets ttiat have been deliberately collected ina , OtcGAN4ZING.47TALONGITUDINALLN longitudinal manner. But, thereare other data sets that The organization of data.collcCle-a longitudinally presents are only fortuitiously longitudinal that represent all even manrchallenges; as researchers nieei them we shall see less exploited resource.The National Crime Survey both methodological prqgress and rich substantive.re- (NCS), which asks respondents to report victimization, r Mail to sets that are collected longitudinally are and the Current Population Survey (CPS) are both,in stored in computer files as if they were merely tcrpss- part, longitudinal data sets (see Fienberg, 14180a, Kala- sectional,so that many of the special benefits of longi- chek, 1979). Fot reasons of economy in sample selection iudinardata cannot be realized. Moreover, the analytic and control of certain kinds of bias, eachof those surveys richness of longitudinal data is unavailable without cross uses rotating. panels. The CPS interviews each family . referencing between lekreW of aggregation. Each of these eight times; once a month for four, montli, and after challenges is discUssed in turn. eight months off the panel, once a month for four months - The first challenge of organizing data frbm longitu- again. The NCS also interviews monthly, with a rotatiqn dinal surveys arises becausedifferent numbers of events group being interviewed every six months Air three happen to different peciple. One person may be hired and years. Etch of these samples is designed to'give cross- fired many times over the years, generating data on the sectional data. Than is, the Bureau of the Census, which job; lescription and..dates of employitient 'for each job. runs both of these surve7S, isinterested in aggregate These data must be stored and catalogued as pertaining employment and unemployment figures each month, and to this particular person. Another person may stay in the in aggregate victimization each montit------same job throughout the course of the longitudinal study, With some effort, however, the surveys could be or- generating far less data. lt,becomes a methodological ganized inlongitudinal form and used to examine 217 S. 606,SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK changes ,experienced by`Individuals. 'Some attempts in (and-perhaps subsequent times) they are asked than they this this direction have indeed been carried out. A longitu- do the first. Perhaps some purchasecan be gotten on with dinal data file for persons and households present in the probilem by -"throwing away" the, first interview NCS fron4inly 1, 1972 to December 31, 1975 has been a respondent. The NationalCrime Survey, for example, .created (Reiss, 1980). This file has been used to. 'rives- uses the first interview for bounding purposesonly, not for comparative purposes or as cross-sectional data. Thus ngate repeated victimization using loglinearmodels . (Fienberg , : 1980b). (Note that the analysis of any re- the first "real" interview. (the second .acal interview) the first. '''peated event is inAerendy,longitddinal.) Because re- ,is more like subsequent interviews than it is ike peated vicumization frequently involves crimes of sib- The severity of panel biases, their effect on measuresof Aar type, further investigation' might examine the change, and the extent to which theycontinilover time, , vulnerability or "proneness" of groups of households inApanel will be matters for investigation asdata'become form, or household locationsto a9rtain kinds of crime. more easily available in longitudinal A.sepond problem is that when a family sakes,pari in There are both limitations and a' tagesqo uSiet'h family members may be Current Population' Survey as a suryey over time, different interviewed on different occasions, In the discussion of "(Kalachek, [979); Its advantage is eno A e large-561)00 'households are intay.it each mOnt using pfoxy respondents to, decrease nonresponse, we noted that some respondents re ort differently about in such a way. that 42,000 are --,cotrim to successive months, and 28,000 common to the same month across themselves than about other family Members. Do such ' a year This is in contrast; for example, to the origipal differences occur` in longitudinal studies, and if so, what panels of the National Longitudinal Survey (NLS,Also effect do they have on data analyzed longitudinally in terms of familleg? In terms of individuals? often referred to as the parnes. data), eachof which con- tains 5,000 individuals. The breadth of the CPSwould Still another set of problems with longitudinal surveys from the sample. If the housing unit perm analysis by subgroups; this is notfeasible from involves attritio is the sampling unit, but the family-is the unit of-analysis, the smaller panels. The CPS, (or example, couldexamine the employment experience for black women fromthe what happens when the family moves? What happens child South in a particular age group, while NLS would&aye when part of the fimily moves, as when a grown happens too few people in such a specific category to carry out leaves home, cm, a marriage breaks up? What 41iiil,a person dies? This problem has received little those analyseS. w u.nefition from the CensusBureau because for their cross- In other senses, however, theCPS::11,0iniited. The, ''seetional purposes, the household is treated as the unit length of time any given family isinclucleifOnly sixteen months. Further, in order to serve its primary purpose,' of analysis. Other large-scale longitudinal studies have Arious mays. The Health v. the monthly collection of timely unpm- answered these questions in Insurance Study replaces families that Move out of the ployment statistics, the CPS interview schedule must be in- area and hence becdmeineligible to participaut with. kept brief in order to reduce nonresponse. Thus, the of depth data available from special panel studies are not those "Who Move into the vacated dwelling. In cases divorce and remarriage of both spouses, -thellealth In- available from the CPS. follows the new Some of this lack of depth of the CPS_ could be com- surance Study chooses one spouse-and family, dioppmg the other spouse fromthe sample, The pensated for by supplementary questions that areasked all members once a year. (Thus each family woulddye two readings Panel Sul* of Income Dynamiczs follows 1968, annually on eactf of these 'questions, spaced a yearapart.) The of the families originally interviewed in supplementary' questions encompass such areas asjob interviewing the head of every family that includes at tenure and job mobility, marital and family character- past one member of thelriginal families-. Thus the sam- generactions. istics, education and work experience, multiple job hold- ple keen renewing itself with%new individualsover a long span 'of years can ing and union membership, school attendance,and farm - Following be particidarly difficult, especially if there is a consid- labor. CPS data files could also be supplementedby hiatus between interviews, but the success'ofre- statistical, matching, described below. A are number erable, ',of important policy issues could be better examinedif,..cent studies suggests it can be accomplished. The secret the study is a these potentially useful files are made available foranal- seems to be telling the respondents that continuing one, and asking them to give the names of 'ysis in longitudinal form. several relatives or friends who would alwqSs know how w-r- to reach them (Freedman, Thornton, andCaburn, 'IOTHER ASPECTS OF LONGITUDINAL STUDIES I980). This seems a good idea for studies dealing with Besides the challenges of organization of data files, lon- such wholesome activities as family-building and career gitudinal studies present design and analyticproblems plinning; problems of confidentiality might well arise as well. Evidence of what iscalled "panel bias" suggests if the issues were more sensitive. .. that people answer questions differently thesecond time What happehs when a heretofore cooperativejespond- 2. S Survey Methods607 ent disappears or refuses to answer some or all questions? moves the respondent-identifying set of arbitrary num- The very longitudinal nature of the studies helps in the bers mid substitutes the data,linking set before returning Solution of such problems. Certainly imputation for item the data to the investigatorponderous, but seemingly nonresponse {unanswered questions) can be more, easily foolproof, and. well-adapted to reducing both unit non- accomplished in longitudinal studies where there is prior response and possibilities of greach of confidentiality in information about respondents. For example, estimating longitudinal surveys. Organizations such as the National a respondent's income this month is easier if we know Opinion Research Center have used link file systems and last month's income for urn respondent. Several inves! find that it is crucial and understandably difficult to con- tigators have presented models that help deal with attn.- vince potential ,respondents of the involability of the tion from longitudinal' surveys. They first model the linkage systein. probability of attrition (or nonresponse or self-selection) based on respondent characteristics that are measured within file context of the.survey. For example, a model SOCIAL EXPERIMENTATION tilighi4upest that the likelihood of moving, and hence t being unavailable for interviewing, increases with the Taking experiments out of the labdratory and into the erience of having been the -victim of a crime. Then field is not new, using them as instruments of policy and they can attempt to adjust 'estimates of, for example, simultaneously as sources of information about policy, current victimization or current unemployment for bias is new. There has been a flowering of expenmenfation caused by attrition (Heckman, 1916,1979; Hausman and to investigate policy alternatives and a corresponding 'Wise..; 1977; and Griliches, et al., 1977). blooming of the methodology to carry out such experi- This problem of datfrition bias is a special case of the ments beginning in the early .1960s. A standard definition more,,general problem of t'censoring." Someone who of a social experiment states: leaves the panel can, of coarse, not have data observed thereafter; sit ch farther data are said to be censoredi But By experiment is meant that one or more treatments evenfwith an intact panel orliAilling respondents, there (programs) are adininistered to some set pf persons (or other units) drawnat random from a specified are some pieces of data not available at any given time population; and that observations (or measure- f or some indiyiduals: To illustrate: at whatever time we ments) are made to learn how (or how much) some stop to make an analysis of amount of time spent in first relevant aspect of their behavior following treatment job, ther are some people who have never switched differs from like behavior on the part of an untreated , jobs; for4them we can get no measure of how long the or control group also drawn at random from the 740- .same population (Riecken and Boruch, 1974: 3, first job lasted except to shay ?hat it lasted at least from emphasis in the original). the beginning of the'job until the current time. The prob- lem is how to adjust for the censored observations in The 'random' in this definition is the hallmark of a estimating theaverage time spent by members of the true social experiment. If people are assigned to treat- population in their first job. There has been a recent ments at random (rather than by some other method such surge .in development'of methods for ihe analysis of such as self-selection, first-come-first-served, or those judged censored data.2° to be most in need given preference, etc.), then several Problems of anonymity and con fidentiality are espe- advantages accrue. First, standard procedures of statis- cially severe in longitudinal studies because individuals ficierence are appropriate for use.dpid second,any . or families must be ideitfied in some manner so that differences found between groups at the end of theex- they can be° followed over time. Several means of as- periment can be. probabilistically examined to judge suring anonymity in longitudinal surveys have, however, whether they result from the treatments or instead reflect been developed (Boruch and Cecil, 1'979): respondents pre-existing differences between the groups thatwere may choose aliases and continue to use them; an agency related to whether or not they got treatments. or broker may act as an intermediary between respondent Controversy about the necessity and feasibility of and,tintiestigator, releasing only unidentified data to the doing such randomization has long existed. That ran- fs investig-Nator; or an insulated "link file" system may be, domization is important is clear; when randomized and 'created: In this last case, data in the, investigator's files non - randomized evaluations of programs (like the Salk are labeled by arbitrary data-linking numbers, identifi- polio vaccine tests) are run in tandem:often the'result cations are kegt in another file and alabeled with another of the non-randomized study is -less clear and.compelling set of arbitrary respondent - identifying numbers, and the than thesesult of the randomized study (Boruch, I975a; only file linking the two sets of arbitrary numbers is held .ke also Gilbert, Light, and Mosteller, 1975). by incorruptible Third party. As successive waves of Thus itis not true that non-randomized testing is daarrin, the investigator removes identification and cheaper and just as good as randomized experimenta- rebels with the respondent-identifying set of arbitrary tion.2' Nevertheless,'while true experimentation is the n mbers, and ships the data to the third party whoje- method of choice for drawing conclusions about public 21 9 t 608 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK policies and programs (as well as about other issues), attrition and censoring of data) as well as other problems and can be carried.out more frequentlytha'n it currently related CO its large scale. is, and than is often supposed, inferences must some- Attrition can be especiallyildamaging in an experiment times be made from nonexperinientalsituations.' That if it is related to the treatment given. For example,*tu- need can rise (among other reasons) from the pressures bers of a control group or one receiving only minimal "of time; expense, or ethics. When circumstancesdemand benefits from the experimental program may be more that investigators make do with data gathered from non- likely to drop out than those receiving high benefits. experimental situations, prudence insists that special care (The entire control sample in one location of the Health be taken in the analysis" and in making inferential Insurance Study was dropped because of tack, of coop- claims. Causal inferences are shaky at best, and alter- eration; see Ferber and Hirsch, 1979). Depending on native explanations for results are always conceivable. how this aitritioii is related to the treatments and char- The definition of social experiments stresses that peo- acteristics of the participants, it may present problems ple are drawn at random (via a probability sample)from in gaugingthe effects of the treatments only reasons for a specified .populationand this,is an aspect of social Attrition and nonresponse are not the experiments that differentiates them fromlaboratory-ex- missing data in such studies; some variables are intrin- penments as usually performed in the socialsciences, sically unobservable for some participants. For example, where frequent subjects are rats or college sophomores. time until rearrest among parolees is not measurablefor of the If the purpose of a social experiment is tofind out how those who are not rearrested during the course poor Reople will react to an income subsidy,then the 'experiment. Again, threshold models (e.g., Heckman, subsidy must be offered experimentally to poorpeople. 1976; 1979) may be useful in adjusting for such missing, This means that the sampling techniques developedby data in an experimental situation. This sort of adjustment employment and survey researchers and statisticians arerelevant to social was done in an experiment examining experiments, as are the techniques for reducing or-coping earned wages of ex-convicts. The treatments were vary- with nonresponse. Further, the 'observations, measure- ing levels of income supplements- (Ray, Berk, and ments, responses, or outcomes one, wishes toexamine Bielb'y, 1980 These income supplements were esti- are usually novas clear-cut as they arein laboratory mated to have a greater positite impact on wages when experiments, where test scores or behavior counts (often the data were adjusted to account for those notworking. st.f time computerized) are- fairly straightforward. Social experi- Social experiments also require a great deal involVing trial work ments have sought to measure programeffects such as to plan and manage. An experiment earned income, housing demand, utilization of health- periods for recipients of social security disability insur- of 1979, a team . care services, and distribution of useof electrical power.ance is an example. As of the summer These complicated concepts are often measured'using of researchers had spenttwo,years in planning, setting negotiat- survey techniques, so the problems faced and knowledge budgets, designing` measurement devices, and another gained in the study of nonsampling variability non- ing legislative authorization. They anticipated experimental surveys 'i equally applicable to social year of `.`facing the contractingprocessipr outside data collectitin services and working with Social" Security experiments. operational components in Mounting and monitoring the experiments" (Franklin, 1979). These experimetsj the APPROACHES TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES OF SOCIAL largest social experimentd ever undertaken,inv4lving EXPERIMENTS some 30,000 people,Have now been authorized. val- Both the advantages and the 'special problemsof social As a potential buyer examines a horse's teeth to experiments stem from 'their scale: that is, their length idate the seller's claim of its age, so is a social experiment and complexity. Besides the basic advantage Ofprecision designed 'to "look into the horse.'s mouth" and by im- and of causal inference, social experiments generaterich'data plementing the proposed program on a 011qt:oiled sets that provide opportunity for. detailedanalysis and relatively small scale, estimate the effects of a fully im- model fitting. When many variables are measured over plemented program. There is a set of problems, however, long time spans, unanticipated results can be explored." in that the "horse" looked at experimentally may not Social experiments take a long time to run. Families be precisely the same as the one that would be created do net usually.react instantaneously to an income sup- if the program were fully implemented- These potential working . plement Or other major program change. Thus, the in- sources of bias are recognized-by experimenters come maintenance experimentsprovided support for in the field, and efforts are bing made to measure and three= or five-year periods, with one variation in Denver' control for them (Ferber and HirsCh; 1979). The first actually running for 20 years (Ferber-and Hirsch, 1979). such bias, attrition bias, has already beendiscussed. An experiment monitoring the same people overthis Second, people often behave differently when they are they long a time falls into the category of longitudinal studies, in an experiment, simply because they know that' and thus suffers from the problems of these studies (e.g., are participating in one. Thisis the well-known. Haw- Survey Methods60 thorne effect." Several social experiments have ad- the experimental constitution of a complete social wel- dressed this problem by including a control group that fare agency. Thus problems of expenmentation come to is hot measured at all until the experiment is either over include the coordination between the organization deliv- or well underway, the people in this group thus do not ering the treatments and the organization measunng their *know they are in the experiment and their data at the end effects, "7 - of the experiment provide a.baselinefor the measurement From these complicated management problems of so- of possible Hawthorne effects. Thus in the Health In- cial expenments arise the twin problems of assessing surance Study , some members of the control group did treatment strength and treatment integnty. In fact, when- not receive an initial physical examination untilsix ever an experiment is conducted there is a question of months into the experiment. treatment integritywhether the experimental treat- . Next, community effects arise if people's behaviors ments that are formally prescribed for subjects A ac- are conditioned by social norms that would not apply if tually given to or expenenced by them. There is ample the program were implemented fully rather than exper- evidence from the literature of social psychological ex- imentally. For example, a "work ethic" might operate periments that they often are not. Expenmenter effects to keep people in the labor force during an income main- indicate that expenmenters tend to get the results they tenance experiment, but might cease to operate Ancome expect, while fn the same expenment, workers with con- supplementation were instituted community -wide Some trary expectations, putatively using the same techniques, progress in measunng Community effects may come out get contrary .results (see, e.g., Rosenthal, 1966). Evi- of the housing allow ance experiments Here One com- dence on demand .Charactenstics shows that subjects, ponent, designed to measure the impact of housing al- trying to be cooperative, take cues from the experimental lowances on supply of housing, offers the program to situationlcr develop hypotheses about what the experi- all eligible families in a housing market rather than a ment is trying to prove and then behave in a way they random sample of such families as is done in another think will help prove these hypotheses (see, e.g. Orne, component of the expenment, designed to`Measure de- 1962). Subjects in the social role of the experimental mand. Differences in behavior of families in the two subject tend to behave in a way that will, in some sense, component experiments may give an estimate of com- "make a good impression" (see, e.g., Alexander and munity effects. Knight, 1971).. Finally, when families know that the experimental. These problems are exacerbated in large-scale social program will last only for a specified period of time, expenments, simply because, their,. scaleis so much time horizon effects may influence them to behave dif- larger. The treatments are more complicated to explain, ferently than they would if they knew that a program both to those administering.them and to those receiving were permanently in place. Attempts to, measure these themand indeed may change operationally over time effects involve varying the length of time that the ex- (actual cash transfers change from month to month in penmental program will run as one component of the the income maintenance experiments depending pn earn- treatments to which participants are randomly assigned. ings and "tax rate", payments in the health insurance The income maintenance experiments varied in time study 'change with whether thp "deductible.' has been from three to five years, and even assigned some par- fulfilled). Responses are also likely to change according ticipants to a 20-year treatment. Clearly, policy makers to the participants' understanding of the treatment rather will not wait 20 years for the results of the experiment, than the experimenter's intentions. For example, using but the behavilir of the 20 -year. group during the early respondents' understandings of the treatments in the years of the experiment ought to give some clues to the Negative Income Tax Experiment produced estimates of behavior of those for whom time-horizon effects do not the program's effect that were different from estimates operate because they expect the-program to be "per- based on what the "actual" treatments were supposed rnanent."_Both these time horizOn effects and the initial to be (Nicholsen and Wright, 1977). "start-up" effeoirteople reacting rapidly, for example, On a less psychological plane, the issues of treatment, to the treatment of a health insurance experiment by strength and integrity are intertwined. Strength of treat- undertaking medical care that had been long neglected) ment addresses whether an interventionis powerful lend themselves to analysis by the statistical models dis- enough to be expected to have some effect if it is applied cussed in connection with the v_ irtues of longitudinal as prescribed. Treatment integrity addresses whether the data. treatment applied approaches its prescribed strength, Large-scale social aperiment presents management b.asically asking "What really happened?" Both issues problems to investigator l. Not only are data, collection shotild be faced in the design and analysis of social procedures complicated by the enormous number of var- expenments, though both are difficult and neither is cur- iables to be measured and kept track of during the long rently investigated routinelySechrest and Redner, time period of the study, but'the actual delivery of the 1978). Ohe literature review found that of 236 evaluation treatments is a very complicated matter, often involving studies examined, 22% did not measure at all whether , 610.SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK the program had been implemented according to stated to treatments was the pre-experimental income level ex- guides (Bernstein and Freeman, 1975). pressed as a percent of the poverty level (Conlisk and Both issues have been addressed in theea of criminal Watts, 1969). rehabilitation. -Far example, the question of ho Traditional experimental design (see, e.g , Cochran, work release might be effective subsumes such questions ) would have chosen a set of support levels and lax . as "When should workrelease begin7; "How long rates, with that choice perhaps based on considerations should it last?", "How good a job at what pay level is of what differences between combinations would be of required ? '', "Will it be effective if it is in a community greatest policy importance. Traditional experimental de- other than the one to which the prisoner is likely to sign would have random-ly divided the families in a pre- return?" Similar "How much?" questions can be asked experimental income stratum among the treatment groups, about other rehabilitation efforts such "as job training and and then done the same with each additional stratum of group counseling (Sechrest and Redner, 1978). While families. The experimenter might well decide that certain there are no ,easy answers to these questions, the very treatthent combinations would receive no families from act of asking them bnngs.conimon sense and theoretical certain strata or that certain treatment combinations as well as empirical knowledge to bear on their possibly would receive a disproportionately large number of fam- solutions (Sechrest, et -al., 1979). ilies. Such decisions would be based on deliberate judg- The question of treatment integntyhow much treat- ments about which higher order combinations of treat- ment was actually deliveredhas been referred to as the ments and strata would be negligible in their effects on third face of evaluation (the first two being experimental earned income and which would be especially important. design and measurement of outcome, Quay, 1977). In This is A very general and flexible design that makes a setting of group counseling in a pnson, questions about no assumptions at all about the form of the relationship what was might ask how often the groups really between the response and the treatments, nor, in its sim- met, how good were attendance and participation, how plest form, about whether families that differ in pre- meaningful was the discussion, hOw well were the lead- expenmehtal income will differ in their response to the ers trained and motivated; and how much stability the treatments. It also does not take into account that some groups maintained. When such questions were asked in treatments (with higher support payments and lower tax one study (Quay, 1977) the answer to each was' "Not rates) are 'more expensive than others, especially when very.- Progress then, in methods for conducting exper- given to families with low pre-experimental incomes." iments as well as in substantive knowledge, is likely to If one is willing to make some assumptions about the be achieved by the routinized scrutiny of experiments form of the relationship between treatments and re- beforehand for expected treatment strength and after- sponse, statisticians studying response surface method- wardsfor treatment integrity.,,,, ology28 have shown that one can choose treatment com- binations that are "optimal" they will, in some sense, maximize the information available from the experiment OPTIMUM DESIGN for a given budget. Alternatively, if the functional form .Social expenments are expensiye in time, effort, and is assumed and the logically possible treatment combi- money. Including both transfer payments and costs of nations specified, optimal allocation of families to treat- research, the inconie Taintenance experiments had cost ments can be worked out (Aigner, 1979). This latter about $70 million by 1975, the Health insurance Study route was taken by-Conlisk and Watts (1969) in designing was projected to.cost approximately $50 million, and the the New Jersey Negative Income Tax Experiment, rising housing allowance expenments abotit $200 million (Fer-' an allocation model that took into account both the cost ber and Hirsch, 1979). For this reasorkit becomerSu- of the treatment and its policy importance. Afle cially important to design them in such a way that the One problem with such optimal designs is that they most knowledge possible is 'gained from given ex- are usually optimal for the form of the relationship spec- penditure. Methods of optimal experimental at sige are ified; if that specification is wrong, then the design can engineered to do just that. Let us look at the income, be less good than one that makes fewer assumptions. maintenance experiments as an example. Sets of partic- This problem can be grasped more easily in the context ipating families were given different treatments in the' of a simple experiment involving only support paymenti experiments. These treatments were :varying. support as the treatment and earned income as the response. If -level of payments, defined as percent of the poverty the relationship between support endearned income were level, and varying "tax rates," or the percentvf esnr114 believed to be linear, then some fraction (one half, other that was counted (taxed) against support pdyments. Ittk things being equal) of the available families would be-- response measured was earnings during the experiment, randomly assigned, to the lowest support level contem- expressed as a proportion of normal pre-experimental plated and the remainder to the highest. This procedure earnings. Also used as part of the basis. for assignment would be the most efficient for estimating theslope and 1 Survey Methods611 intercept that fully descnbe the, assumed linear relation- for some time before its outcome could be determined ship between svport and income. If, however, the re- for use in planning the next small ,experiment.'But such lationship between support and income is actually cur- an approach would be very useful in estimating the real vilinear (for example, if earned income decreases very responses to possible variations in policies, in the long slowly for low support levels but then drops off rapidly run, bile offering some interim results that could be at higher levels), this design would be completely unable useful in more immediate policy planning. to describe the form of the curve. A design that assigned A similarly sequential approach has been used to ex- an intermediate support level to some families would be plore educational alternatives for under-achieving Ha- necessary to describe the curvilinear relationship. waiian native children. Compared to EVOP as applied This sort of problein may indeeThave arisen in the to large-scale social experiments, this project is much' New Jersey Negative Income Tax Experiment because -smaller in scale, uses less formal and complicated sta- few very poor people were assigned to the expensive tistical technology, and admits more intuitive elements treatments (because expensive treatments would bi've into its evidential base. But the basic idea of letting data been even more expensive if applied to low-ineome peo- from one phase of the investigation formally shape the ple) Thus it was difficult to test the truth of the as- succeeding phase is similar, and the project has 4vel- sumption that the effect of the treatments on labor force oped an educational program that appears to work (Tharp participation did not vary with pre-experimental income and Gallimore, 1979). Perhaps the next 'few years will level (see Archibald and Newhouse, 1980). A further see an attempt to apply real EVOP methodology to large- problem is that any large experiment has many questions scale social experiments. and goals. Optimality for one goal may be less than optimal for another. Another approach, a "finite selection model," starts USES OF ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS out with the number of families to be allocated to each treatment already decided, and assigns, from the pool As information demands become greater, it is natural to of available families, the most appropriate families for look for sources of data' that involve less burden on each treatment. Randomization can be easily introduced, respondents and lower collectiort costs. than those in- and the computational, costs of the assignment process curred by surveys or experiments. The l'arge sets of ad- reduced considerably without seriously compromising ministrative records maintained by federal agencies (So- optimality, by making each choice as the optimum from cial Security Administration, SSA, Internal Revenue a randomly chosen subset of the available families. Some Service, IRS, etc.) seem.to offer enormotis-potential for problems introduced by the possibly unbalanced designs statistical uses.29, arising from the Conlisk-Watts procettire are avoided , in the finite selection model. The model was developed for the Health Insurance Study and used there and else- LINKAGE where (Morris, 1975). Advantages could be realized by using individual ad- Halfway between the broad general purpose traditional ministrative data sets themselves. More'might well be &Signs that assume little or nothing about the response available if data on individuals or businesses held by functions and the highly specified optimal designs is the different administrative agencies or obtained by surveys concept of EVOP (evolutionary operations) ()ikox, 1978; could be Hiked into a file containing considerably more Mad'ansky, 1980). A small set of treatments is chosen detail than that Maintained by any single agency or avail- and enough observations are taken to suggest both able from any survey. The 1973 Current Population Sur- whether a simple model will fit the data and what changes vey-Administrative Record Exact Match Study did ex- ought to be made in the Treatments in order to maximize" actly that, creating an extremely rich data. file. Survey (or minimize) the response. (In the New Jeisey Negative records for people in the March 1973 CPS were linked Income Tax Experiment, clearly, the aim would have to their earnings, and benefit information in Social Se- been to find the treatments that maximized earned in- 1, curity Administration records, and to data fitm come.) .Then small experiment would be run, 1972 income tax returns. The file contains the usual CPS either taking more observations in the original treatment demographic and labor force items, plus the Ii/larCh sup- region in order to fit a more complicated model, or chang- plement questions on income and work experience, lon- ing the treatments in order to move toward the maximum gitudinal data on earnings from the individual's Sum- response, mary Earnings Record at Social Security, data on tax Any serious attempt to apply evolutionary operations units' taxab)e income from the Internal Revenue Service, to social experiments would certainly further increase and beneficiary status from the Social Security the already long time necessary to obtain definitive re- Administration. sults. Each of the small experinfents would have to run Major methodological difficulties had to be solved in o 223 612 SSRVFIVF. -YEAR OUTLOOK implementing this zrocedure because the various files lic use data tapes are envisaged .(see Griffith and Kas- are maintained- for different units. SSA uses the inclivid-* pezyk, 1980). ual covered worker; CPS uses the pousehold, with in- formation solicited for each individual: andIhe IRS uses OTHER ASPECTS OF THE USE OF.ADMINISTRATIVE DATA the taxpayer, who may be an individual, a couple, or a family. These fies are available for public use., anel many There are several problems in the use of administrative substantive and methodological studies have used them, data for statistical purposes. One is that data collected (See Studies from Interagency Data Linkages, 1980). by an administrative agency as a by-product of its nec- Earl? papers during 1975-78 dealt with methodological essary data collection activities are probably les'saccurate issues and cross-sctional analyses of income data: gore than the primary data. Agency priorities usually involve recent studies are using the files to carry on mortality , carefully refining and monitoring the data that are nec- and disability research (see DelBene and VITOtiren, essary for programs of that agency, while fewer resources 1979). Little attention has been paid to date to -the lon- are invested in caring for pieces of information that are gitudinal aspects of the files, however. less important for the agency itself. Thus, for example, Two linkage projects on emuch larger scale are now some 11% of the workers in the one percent CWHS were in the planning stage,. The first, the Linked Administra- found to be miscoded on location of work (Cartwight, tive Sample (LASS) project starts with the Continuous 1978). For purposes of recordkeeping in SSA, what Work History Sample (CWHS) that has been maintained matters is the employer for whom the employee works, by the Social Security Administration for over forty not the location of the work. This presents no problem years. CWHS is a one percent sample of social security when an employer has only one place of business, but accounts, updated each year so that the file is a longi- problems arise with a multi-establishment employer and tudmal one. (The CWHS has been available to'otitside a system. of optional reporting of place of employment researchers; the Tax Reform Act of,,1976 has foreclosed Problems of a similar type will exist whenever files from the release of informatioh more recent than that date to different agencies are [inked as long as definitions of, the publit, but the file continues to bupdated.) Over variables are not the same across agencies; advances will the years the file has been used for int al research at occur when definitions are standardized. the SoCial Security Administration to track of the Legal and ethical problems also exist in the use of characteristics of workers covered by Soc runty and administrative records'ifor statistical purposes. There* are how this population has changed with legislative c anges, legal restraints and confidentiality rulings that differ and it has been used outside of,,SSA for research on across agencies. With certain exceptions, the 1976 Tax workforce charactristic,s, life-cycle earnings, and in- Reform Act makes it illegal for the IRS to release data 6 dustrial and environmental health issues. The purpose except for purposes of tax administration. 0 gencies of the LASS is to supplement the CWHS longitudinal are governed by comparable legislativereq,ents for data on earnings and benefit histories with mortality in- confidentiality; in the development of the Linked Ad- formation from the National Center for Health Statistics ministrative Statistical Sample (LASS), inconsistent reg- and individual income tax items obtained from the IRS ulations are reconciled by attentling to the more stringent Statistics of Income Program. The long-term goals of of the tZ'o. this effort are'to developp source of socioeconomic and The principle of "functional separation" of data for job-related mortality and morbidity data which might statistical and administrative uses has been proPosed to eventually make possible the separation of,residence and deal with confidentiality problems (Alexagder, 1979). Under such 'a principle, data that are to brused for , occupation influences on health; to construct baseline data on income fomsmall areas to measure the impact statistical, purposes may flow from administrative agen- of changes in tax policy; and to study regional labor cies; there is to be no reverse flow. It is alsd'useful to Market conditions. - recognize the difference between natural persons and other legal entities in their needs for confidenti (Fed- The, Survey of Income' and Program Participation . (SIPP), a longitudinal survey nowimin its ezcperimental eral Committee on Statistical lylethodology, Subcom- stages, uses administrative records as frames for sam- mittee on Statistical Uses of Administrative Da a, 1980). ling recipients of programs of income supplementation A 'continuing problem is that files created for statistical such as Aid to Families with Dependent Children or purposes offer the nightmarish possibility-of corruption; Supplementary Social Security benefits., These admin- solutions may lie with the insulated "4k -file" system istrative records will also be,matched to the survey results Aiscussed earlier under longitudinal surve etc/ enrich the data and used as a control to study the One other objection to the use of adMinistrative rec- accuracy of reporting of income by, those surveyed, thus ords for some statistical-purposes is that when they are adding to knowledge of response errors. The eventual used for program evaluation they may be distorted in aim of SIPP is to support policy analysis of a wide range order to pcesent a m e favorable view of the program of Federal and State transfer and service programs. Pub- (Campbell, 1979). us, for example, when the success 11; 'c.224 V- Survey Methods613 of a job placement program is evaluated by the number ready stimulated The application of mathematical models of placements made, there is a tendency to concentrate to increase our .understanding of processes. As more efforts on the clients easiest to place. Similarly, when longitudinal data are accumulated, new statistical and the perfoiniance of a police department is measured by computational methods will be developed for their or- percentage of cases cleared, crimes may not be recorded ganization. As they are organized longitudinally and when they are reported but only when and if they are Made available to researchers, we can expect to see fur- cleared. ther advances in models and methods for their analysis. An exciting development related to the use of admin- Similarly we now have large archives of survey data istrative records grows out of the literature on imputation collected using multistage stratified cluster sampling for misSing data. The linkages between data sets dis- techniques, but most of our methods for analyzing these cussed above operate, through the use of such identifiers data must squeeze them into a mold designed" for less --11--:sorial security numbers, to link data related to the' complicated stratified samples. There is a need to de- same invic17iTfaiaormily from the files of two separate velop analytic metliads tailored to these coMphcated administrative agencies.. This is called "exact match- sampling designs, andparallel need to experiment with ing." There is also a concept of "statistical matching" sampling designs that lhd themselves to'analysis using a (Ra'clner, 1078), where a single data set is created from available multivariate methods. two sets'that do not refer to the same people, in order Available data 'coupled with policy relevant results to create a more comprehensive or accurate set of vari- from their analysis seem to constitute a particularly po- ables. This is usually done between a household sample tent force in stimulating creative reanalysis, scientific survey and an administrative (e.g., tax &turn) sample, controversy, and methodological progress. Reanalyses or between two surveys. Matching variables are chosen, of the evaluation of Head Start programs inspired criti- in the same sorts of ways as adjustment classes are con- cism of some widely used techniques of statistical ad- structed for imputing missing values, and the closest jhstment and gave impetus to the development of new match, in some sense, for each member of one file is quasi-experimental designs for the accomplishment and chosen from the members of the other file. The fires are analysis,,of such evalnation's (Boruch, 1980; Cook and then meted and the matched data can be treated as if Campbell, 1979). As results of some of the current large- they were measured for individUals for some analytic scale studies accumulate, they will inevitably create con- purposes. troversy and innovation. The worth of such a synthetic data file rests on the We have seen that methodological techniques have a similarity of definition and error structure of the matching transferability. Experimental design was deVeloped in variables across the original files. Statistical matching agriculture, adapted to laboratory experiments in the is a potentially rich and useful source of detailed data, natural and behavioral sciences, and 4d4pted again to the but the accuracy of estimates made from such files re- field situations that are social experiments: But at each mains to be explored. One proposed method foi- this ,,adaptation new problems were faced; their solutions con- exploration, reminiscent of methods proposed to evaluate stitute some of the methodological advances chronicled imputation methdds, starts with making estimates from above. If we qan see new fields for expelimentation, we a complete dfita file which is then artificially broken can perhaps anticipate merhpological developments. apart. Various methods of statistical matching could be Energy consumption, conservation, and conversion come applied to the fragmented file the estimates derived readily to mind as areas of focus for policy discussion. from-the staiisticany matched files compared with each Although few everiments have been mounted in these other and with those derived from the original complete areas (the Los Angeles Peak Load Electricity Pricing (see Federal Committee on Statisticillethodology, Experiment is a notable 'exception), they seem ripe for Subcommittee on Matching Techniques, 1980). a information seeking to inform policy. Moreover, there is movement toward involving social scientists other than economists in understanding these aspects of energy AND THE FUTURE? (yide a committee formed by the National Research Council on the behavioral and social aspects of energy Having examined some of the recent advances in meth- consumption). This combination of a relatively unex- _ods for large-scale surveys anclexpeEiments, se are per- plotted field and some novel points of view may pose haps in a position to see what,gave rise to such inno- new problems and result in methodological innovation. vations and thus -to anticipate what will stimulate the The very policy relevance of the issues addressed by innovations of the next several years if not what such large-scale surveys, and experiments h inspired and innovations will be. should continue to inspire innovation through the corn, The availability of data has a tendepcy to generate the munication of results. Complicated methodological tech- new techniques suitable,for their%nalysis. We have seen niques may be discussed elliptically between involvZcl low publicly available longitudinal data files have al- professionals, sometimes with little examination of the J , r ? ° 225 1- 0. 614SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK a , underlying assumptions and their implications for con- grams of developing and evaluating the effectivenessof clusions. When, however, the results of policy-relevant innovative graphic dii'plays,(e g:, Kruskal, 1980; Wainer .research must be discussed with policy makers and the and Prancolini, 1980): general public, and the qUestion "How do you knolv?" .The process is a disorderly cumulation; to meet a per- responded to,careful explanationin, understandable ceived need foi information or to cope with available terms becomes crucial.Such explanation can lead to. data we use or adapt methods from the scientific wae- better understanding of the.'Astrengths and weaknesses of house. This attempt to transfer methods and/or the dis- techniques, and to their revision., Similarly, attempts to covery of their flaws leadsto improved methods and the communicate results have been contributing factors to generation of new data. These are then available in the the recent renaissance in statistical graphics (e.g., Fien- scientific warehouse both to stimulate and to be used in berg, 19;9). This renaissance, in'turn, has inspired pro- the next cycle of information seeking. NOTES 6 Some have argued that the technique is confusing to both inter- viewers and respondents., and'it is certainly true. that it reduces the I. Thanks are due to a great many people for enormous amounts of sample size by soliciting answers from only a fraction of the respond- assistance dunng the preparation of this paper First of all the Review ents. While the evidence on its efficacy is not conclusive. in 16studies Panel who commented inspiringly through interminable iterations of that compared randomized response with some standard,. nine showed outlines and drafts. William H. Kruskal, Stephen E Fienberg, Norman a notable reduction in response error (Boruch andCecil, 19791 An M. Bradbum, and Richard A Berk- Officers and staff at the Social important issue is that when the percent of people engaging inthe Science Research Council were,,aiso unstinting in time devoted to sensitive behavior is small. the tectinique seems sensitive to reporting intellectual guidance and moral support. David L Sills, Peter B. Read, errors in the innocuous question (Shimizu andBonham. 1978) Kenneth Prewitt, and ROberta Balstad Miller. In trying to descnbe the 7. Sudman and Bradbum (1974) provided a detailed review, as do cutting edge of research I had to depend in large part on the willingness : Kaltort and Schuman (1980) of investigators t'o share their work-in-progress and a great many people 8 The project is being encouraged by the4Panel on Survey-based responded generously, too many to list here but the blanket nature of Measures of Subjective Phenomena of the Committee onNattonal such thanks should not be read as a.detraction from its warmth Many Statistics of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research friends and colleagues with no official connection with the project gave Council generously of their time to explain and instruct in their areas of special 9 A conference on Computer-Assisted SurveyTechnology: spon- competence and to make comments on various, drafts (several of these sored by the National Science Foundation and organized by JMerril people might well be considered honorary members of the Review Shanks and Howard E Freeman was held in Berkeley. California in ..Panel). Eugene Weinstein, Kathenne Waltman, Charles Tumor, Wen- March 1980 Proceedings should appear sometime in 1981 with the dell Thompson,EdwardTufte, Frank Stafford, Charles Smith, Burton title The Emergency of Computer-assisted Survey Resiarch Singer, Memll Shanks, Karl Schuessler, Fredenck Scheuren, Gordon 10 See, e g., Bailar, 1978, Moms, 1979, Brewer and Samdal. Sande, ,Ingram 01km, Frederick Mostejler. Susan Miskura, Albert 1979, Little and Rubin, 1979. Kalsbeek, 1980, a Madansky, Richard Link, 'Michael Kagay, EdwiA Goldfield, Jonathan 11 Deming (1978) presents properties of this estimator and. several Cole, Robert Boruch, Albert Biderman, Barbara Bailar The errors and related ones infelicities, of course, are my very own. Linda D Anderson performed 11. Ranking ra*,estimators, a somewhat different technique (Dem- miracles of typing, both in speed and in beauty. ing and Stephan, 1940), adjust for strata much finer than the ones for Which outside data are available and so must start by estimating the 2. The American Statistical Association has recently published a et booklet entitled What is a.Survey? that clearly explicates the variety, "outside information" for these strata TM! estimation uses methods purposes, and /methods of basic survey research. (See Ferber et al., of iterative scaling also used in other sorts of analyses df cross,-classified 1980.) " data (e.g , Bishop, Fienberg, and Holland, 1975) The'estimaCed out- 3. Useful catalogues of designs for quasi-expenments and the par- side information is then used as part of a ratio adjustment for that ticular thfeats to validity they defend against have appeared widely in stratum. Oh and Scheren (1978) haveroffered a multivariate version the literature. See, for example, Campbell and Stanley (1963), Gamp- of the'raked ratio estimator. bell (1978); and Cook and 'Campbell (1979). 13. These are published in Aziz and Scheuren (1978), as well as in 4. A glosgaly of terms used in discussion of nonsampling erratic has .the Proceedings volumes for that meeting. been prepare& as have several excellent reviews of the literature and 14. A preliminary version of the proceedings has appeared (Panel bibliographies in recent years (for eartple, Sudman and Bradbum, on Incomplete Data, 1979) The final proceedings volume and the 1974, Bailar, 1976; Bradbum, 197% D;lenius, 1977a, 1977b, 1977c, remainder of the reports of the Panel are scheduled to go to press in KUhn and Cannell, 1978, Deighton et ale, 1978; Mosteller, 1978), often 1981. in connection with continuing programs on research on surveymeth- 15. Other approaches to the modelling of measurement error than odology. A special issue of'Sociological Methods and Research on that implied by -the concept of total survey error are of course possible survey design and analysts concentrating on errors in surveys appeared and have been suggested For example, an approach using a set of in November, 1977. Two panels'sponsored by the Committee onNa- structural equations to model the relations between a group of questions tional Statistics of tke National Research Council Ne'at work in the that 111 pertain to the sathe underlying concept, each measuring it general area. .)0 imperfectly but together captunng most of its richness, is now widely 5. The panel on Survey-based Measures of Subjective Phenomena used. (See JOreskog and SOrbom, 1979, for a clear exposition of this of the Conuriittee on.National Statistics plansfurther review of the approach and an enlightening applicatiOn, see Kohn and Schooler, literature 91 rvponse,sets.s 1978.) 226 . . ^ r , Survey Methods.615 ., 16 This is the work of the Subcommittee on Nonsampling Errors of Archibald. Rae W and Newhouse, Joseph P. 1980. Social Experi- -ii. the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology. -, mentation. Some Whys and flows. R-2479-HEW. Santa Monica, 17. The research on the relationship between forgetting and tele- CA. Rand scoping (Sudman and Bradbum. 1973) is relevant here. and there also Aziz, Faye, and Scheuren Fntz. 1978: 1mtation and Editing of ought to be consideration of the virtues of irregularly spaced interviews *Faulty or Missing Surve) Data. Washi n, D.C.. U.S Department a 18 Another, less substantive but beautifully explicated aprflication of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. (Papers presented at the 1978 of a continuous timonhodel appears in Singer and Spilerman (1977) omeeting of the Amencan Statistical Association and also punted in 19 For example, theNationalLongitudinal Surveys of Labor Force theiroceedingi volumes for that meeting). Experience sponsored by the Labor Department (Ilielby. Hawley. and Bailar, Barbira A1976. Some Sources of Error and Their Effects Bills. 1977). the Anaul Housing Survey sponsored by HUD (Bev- on Census Statistics. Demography 13.273-286. eridge and Taylor. 1980). the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (Mor Radar, Barbara A., and Bailar. John C. III, 197 Companson of the gan, 1977), and sonle tirts of ttie National Cnme Survey 'sponsored Biases ofthei"HoIDeck" ImputationProcedurewith an .Aqual- . 4 by the Law Enforcement Assistance Agency (Reiss, 1980) are now Weights" Im Utation Procedure. Pp. 442- in Panel on Incomplete usable longitudinally. . . Data.. 1979. 20 A basic reference is Cox, 1972. a recent bnef review of the Bailar. Barbara A.. and Miskura, Susan 811-The 1980 Experimental literature is Moses. 1978, and detailed technical expositions are given Program Unpublished pa-per. U S ureau of the Census. by Kalbfleisch and Prentice. 1980, and Elandt-Johnson and Johnson. Bailar, John C III. 1978. Discussion Pp. 62-64 in Azitand Scheuren, 1980 eds. Imputation and Editing .1978 . 21 This and other contentions about the infeasibility of random Bailar, John CHI. and Bailar, Barbara A. 1978 Companson of Two xpervnents are listed and refuted by Boruch (1975a) Procedures for Imputing Missing Survey Values Pp 65-75' in Aziz 22 Analytic techniques have been explicated recently by Reichardt and Scheuren. eds. Imputattpn and Editing ... 1978 (1979) and Anderson et al (1980) T.------"`est Berk. R.A. and Berk. S F 1979. Labor andesure at Home Beverly4 23 Recall the serendipitous finding that income maintenance in- Hills. Sage -C creased the rate of mantal discution of the supported groups Bernstein, Ilene Nagel, and Freeman, Howard E.4975,Ac wiemic and 24 Recent reexamination ofe data from the Hawthorne expen- Entrepreneurial Research New Yirk. Rusrll Sag; Foundation. ' ments suggests explaaations other the eponymous effect account Bevendge, Andrew A and Taylor. John B 1980 Quarterly Report- for the startling nse in prOductivity of the workers in the expenmental 3rd Quarter on Grant HUD-5516 RG A`Contimation of the Lon- room with every change in working conditions, even deletenous ones. gitudinal Transformation and Analysis of the Annual Housing Even if the Hfflithome effect did not occur at the Hawthorne factory, Survey. ti - however, it has certainly occurred elsewhere Biderman.Albert D , Johnn, Louise A, McIntyre. Jennie, and Weir, 25 Several sets of practical advice have appeared (e g, Riecken Adnanne°W.967 port on a Pilot Study in the District of Co- and Boruch. 1974, Archibald and Newhouse. 1980). lumbiaon titr anon and Attitudes toward 4,aw Enforcement. 26 See Aigner. 1979. for an excellent discussion President's Co mission on Law Enforcement and Administration 27 The flexibility of more complicated traditional expenmental de - of Justice Field Survey# 1, ,1F S. Government Pnnting Office. sign is well illustrated in a redesign proposed fol the Kansas City Bielby. 'William THawley. Clifford C and Bills. David1978 Preventive Patrol Expenment. Here design provisions would allow Research Uses of the National Longitudinal Surveys In A Research evaluation of treatment integrity which might be Jeopardized when Agenda for the National Longitudinal Syneys of Labor Market Ex- patrol can from beats where manpower was experimentally increased perrence. 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Ehssa 197.43;fallible Indicators tSf -ffie Monthly Gasoline Purchase Dianes Paper presented et the annual State of the Nation Americangsvcholpiti 33 456-470 meeting of the Amencan Statisfical Association. August 11-14. Wainer, Howard. and Francolini. Carl Nt. 1980, An Empirical Inquiry Concerning Human Understandmg ort;9-Vanable Color Maps .1980. Thomberry. Owen T . Jr and Massey. James T 1974. Correcting for The American Statistician "34.81-93 Undercoverage Bias in Random Digit Dialed National Health Sur- Waltman. Kathtilme K 1980 Statistics and the Allocation of Federal ' veys. Pp 56-61 in Aziz and Scheuren, eds., Imputation and Editing Funds Paper presenter° the Federal Statistics Users Conferencys. : 1978 Washington. D. C , November 19. 1980 Tuma, Nacy Brandon: Hanna. Michael T.: and Groeneveld.t.i1C P. Warner, Stanley1965 Randomized Response Survey Technique for '1979 Drtatriic Analysis (A Event Htstoncs. American .aurnal of Eliminating Evasive Answer Bias Journal of the Amens an Statis- Sociology 84 820-854. tical Association 60.63.69. Tupek, Alan R , and Richardson. W Joel.' 1178. Use of Ratio Esti- Wohman, Henry F TurneAnthony G , and Bushery. John NI 1980 mates to Compensate Ibr Nonresponse Bias in Certain Economic A Corianson of Threefixed -Mode Interviewing Proceduresin the Sufveys Pp. 24-29 in Aziz and Scheuren. edsImputation and National Cnme Surveyournal of the American Statistical A (so- Editing ,/478 cianon 75 534-543 S A, s s yt .t swr AIW 231 V 4 \. The Life-Span. Perspective, inSocial "t Science Research' David L. Featherman ( .11 Ir a SUMMARY on individual psychological development; on the influ- r-- ence of changes in family-size, composition, and indi- Behavioral scientists in sirveral disciplines'have adopted, vidual development patterns on the character and quality a new perspective onimman deVelopment, a perspective of family life; and orf the ability of children to affect which emphasizes that developmental changes in behav- their parents' development. ior and personality occur throughout the life- span and The life-span appr'oach alterig_the- framework can assume a new configuration for each group of age withip which a number of issues of public concernare. mates. The life;span approach asserts that development cast and discussed. The approach argues that each sUe- is as possible among adults and the aged as among in- cessive age group may require different attention at the fants, evenbthough the nature of deVelopment and the policy level (e.g., the current ellierly population is better Yates Of change may differ at different. ages. educated, healthier and longer-lived, and perhaps more Cikrent reseaNh in social stratification, social mobil- economically sound than previous ones). One of the im- ity, psychometii intelligence, and family history is used plications of this research is that we may be moving td plustrate the- usefulness of the life-span perspective toward an age-irrelevant socielyi and that policy makers for investigations of human development. Sociologists may begin .to make decisio6s 'about social needs and and economists are studying how inequalities and dif- social programs (e.g., social security) on the basis of the ferences in wealth, social standing, intellectual perform- individuals' needs, functional capacities, etc., rather ance, and cultural tastes are transmitted from one gen- than their age. The possibility of change throughout life erktion to another. Psychologists are reexamining basic has dramatic implications for education. Not only will assumptions abobt the predictability of cognitive an4 continuing adult educational programs beCome more va'l- intellectual stability throughout adulthood and about the ab e, but an early investment in an education for a life- dedine in ability during old 'age. Individual variation in ime 'Career may no longer be advisable. More broadly, patterns of intellectugh development and potential for programsfOr eachage group should be designed to max- change.is much greater than'-previously realized. His- imize potential at that age (e.g., childhood programs torical studies in family history are discovering '.should not be designed w) a view toward the child and discontinuities. Sue! research is focusing simply as an investment for adulthood). 0 621 RZ 232 622, SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK Life-span research is challenging old ways of thinking fit-emirs reflect a reinterpretation of old evidence about about the course of human development, and a new be- child and adolescent growth, new findings from longi- '. haviorarscience of life-course processesa new disci- tudinal research among the lives of several birth cohorts pline-m"ay emerge over the next decade as a result of now entering late adulthood, and intervention studies this interdisciplinary social science research. At a min- among the aged. The thematic statements are challenges . imurrhthe prospect over.the next five years is for closer to conventional thinking and guides td future research. collaboration £mong the. several existing disciplines (es- They can be summarized succinctly as followsT, 111, ; pecialtypynology, sociology, history,. economics, an- thrdpelogy, biology) aimed at defining the limits4and the (1) Developmental change occurs over the entire course rtotential for change in the human condition. of life; it is synonymous with aging in the broadest sense. Aging is not limited to any particular time of life; neither is development. (2) Developmental changes in the course of aging reflect INTRODUCTION TO THE LIFE-SPAN biological, social, psychological, physical, and his- ORIENTATION - torical events. Over the last decade, a convergence of orientation on (3) The multiple determinants of constancy and change human development has emerged within several social in behavior and personality express their influences and behavioral sciences. Known as the "life-span per- interactively and cumulatively, defining life event spective" on development and behavior, this approach or life history trajectories. .reflects.rnazy themes and propositions. Its essence, how- (4) Individuals are agents in their own development. ever, is that developmental changes in human behavior Life histories are transactional products of the di- occur from conception to death, and arise from a matrix alectics _among the multiple determinants of devel- of biological, psychological, social, historical, and evo- opment and thi motivated, selectively responding lutionary influences and from their timing across the person. GenerAizations across persons about con- lives ofiindividuals. Scholarly and popular interest in the stancies-in human development especially through- themes of this perspective have been intense,sinee 1970. out the last half of life, are few and difficult to The popular press, for example, has absorbed the ideas formulate. of the "mid-lifoicrisis" and life cycle "passages"; there (5) Each new birth cohort potentially ages through' a different trajectory of-life events, bought about by aroften alleles abouNhe implications of changes in the impress of scsidflistdricat change and by indi- lifetyle such.dual careers, The "empty-nest phase" vidual reactions to it. Historically constant gener- of m ationshtps, greater exposure to chronic dis- alizations about developmental changes in aging are ease with increases in longevity, and the 'rettm Of adults and senior citizens to 'Allege and university classrooms. fewer or greater as a function of the Pace and di- rection of sociohistorical changes, be they evolu- Within tiacademic community there has been spe- cialization of study,: e.g., the growth of life-span devel- tionary or revolutionary. opmental psychology; the publication of monograph se- '(6) Intervention efforts among the aged are effective in ries on life-span processes; and the organization of changing the course of development, even as they interdisciplinary conferenceeby private and federal agen- are in the young. Behavior and personality appar- cies that have explored both pging,and development as ently remain more malleatile throughout the full course of life than becomes apparent in common life -long processes. contemporary social and subcultural settings. The apparent plasticitytf manifest patterns.of develop- 0 BASIC THEMES ANDFROPOSITIONS mentuntapped reserve or potentialsuggests)a Thelnultidisciplinary study of life-span development that rethinking of research paradigms and social policies has emerged is an orien' tat,ion toward constancy and that are predicated on conventional, essentially static change in perso,nality and behavior,from birth to deati?. models of aging And of stable and universal stages This approach is not Yet a coherent theory with-explicit of development from childhood.through old age. hypotheses tliat can be addressed in empirical research. Instead, the recognized. consensus is more of a model, The themesiand.prcipositions are developed in the most paradigm, or world view; 4 such, it consists of rather recent multidisciplinary, edited collections: Life-Span general statements that guide more explicit theoretical Development and Behavior, Vol. I (Belies, 1978) and thinking, the direction Tof research, and social policy Vols. 2 and 3 (Balte's and Brim, 1979; 1980); Aging 'related to' human development. From Birth To Death (Riley, 1979); and Constancy and Nevertheless, the ,gaildigmatic themes that have Change in Human Development (Brim and Kagan, emerged from the several disciplinary influences hare 1980). (For a detailed discussion of the empirical bases already generated a few propositions. These themei.and of these themes, see Featheiman, 1981.) to 0 OP 2i3 Life-Sper Perspective623 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW tance of biological or organic substrata of behavior, e.g., enzymal or neural properties of behavior and,behavioral Despite the apparent novelty of this perspectiye and the change (e.g., Rodin, 1980). Another is the theme of the intellectual and pop* interest it has evoked, the themes active organism as an agent in its own development or and propositions that provide the 'focus for these devel- as the instigator of change (ex., Lemer and Busch-Ross- opments have _a long °history within the social and be- nagel, forthcoming). In discRpes such as sociology and havioral sciences in the U.S. and abroad: Only in the history, that typically study aggregate units of analy0s, last ten years, however, have they begun to achieve a (e.g., social classes,or historical penods) biological and scientific base, in some instances through independent sociobiological antecedents and consequences of change "distOvery" by two or more academic disciplines. They assume less central significance than in psychology. In are part of a repeated consideration of the interrelatedness addition, the individual is often cast as a relatively pas- of change across individuals' life cycles and social or sive entity in the course of social or historical change. institutional change. What is unique about the past dec- Thus, the psychologist's focus on the individual ade is that its scientific activity has been extraordinarily change paradignivrovides an intellectual basis for the productive in sharpening concepts, in suggesting hy- central role bf psychology in initiating and integrating potheses and empirical research, and in promoting long- a- multidisciplinary life-span approach to topics such as range programmatic study of the relationship between aging and human development. That approach empha- individual and social change within the boundaries of sizes the capacity of individuals-of all ages to select, academic disciplines (e.g., psychology, sociology, his- ignore, and modify "socializing" influences. It reflects tory, and anthropology)It has also been a period of a gro'wing conviction that contemporary adults not only sustained discussions across disciplinary boundaries; and continue fo develop but also become less similar to each of acknowledged convergences in certain points of view., otheras they grow older. optimal research methodologies, and intervention strat- A lq-span orientation to the study of human devel- egies. Some have even speculated that what is emerging opment has a long history in psychology. Reinert (1979) from the current discussions and programs of longitu- 'traces these roots to the philosophical writings and au- dinal research may provide the basis for a new academic tobiographical reflections of Aristotle, Democritus, and discipline that would amalgamate and synthesize the tra- 'Augustine and other classical philosophers. Perhaps the ditions of its parent disciplines (Riley, 1981:340). most important figure during what Reinert calls the To Illacetthese achievements in:perspective and pio- "preliminary period" was Johann Nikolas%Tetens vide a tneans of assessing their implications, this essay (1736-1807), a German philosopher and experimenter begins with a bi-ief historical review. It is organized by in psychology. Tetens emphasized the importance of academic disciplines to highlight specific contributioq. identifying general psychologica of behavior ° This oreanization emphasizes the view of science as pro- through naturalistic observation. He 'placed thq of ceeding normally within disciplinary boundaries under * "developmental courses" of lives within the span from the guidance of unique paradigms or metatheories and methods. The intense effort to transcend disciplinary',conception to death and stressed the importance of en- v onmental conditions (e.g., social, cultural) for , backgrounds and to -ez'plore commonalities .in life-span pfnent.. concepts and methods is a distinguishing feature Of the . During the "formative period" (between the late 18th last decade (and is not fully portrayed by the disciplinary and late 19th centuries), two Europeans played key roles. histories). At the same time the several disciplines enrich Friedrich August Carus (1770-1808)saw the course of these explorations of the life span approach with their human development as a series. of stages, each flowing unique perspectives through the dialogues and dialectics into the next and preparing the individual for what comes they promote. later in life. He strived to establish a :`general age- oriented science," but one in which age was not assumed Psychology to be a causal variable Per se and in which historical Psychologists have been among the most prominent pro- context was an important facet of age-related behaviors. ponents of a life-spat approach to the study of human Carus's life-span conception of development was not . development in the U.S. One r*on is that the fund's.- supplanted as an intellectual guidepost for over a century mental research agenda of psychologists is the study 'of (Reinert, 1979:220). The other key figure was Adolphe all individual's behavior over time (i.e., Baltes, Reese, Que.telet (1796-1874), Whose methodologicalcontribu- and Lipsitt, 1980). Although other disciplines, v.g., tions were as ilikoantn-rt as the subs ohes. He pi- ciology and history, also study change, the unit of anal- oneered thd use of cross-sectional a for the study ysis is frequently not the individual. This difference is of age-specific individual differences in development and fundamental for the life-span approlth, as is apparent emphasized the necessity of longitudinal design's for the in two other reasons for the intellect 1 centrality of analysis of intra-individuaj change (and interindividual psychology to this area One is the recozed impor- differences in these- changes). Quetel6 identified the -o 2 3 4'r :" 624 SSRCIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK developmental importance of critical periods in the life the Institute of Human Development at Berkeley and the span and showed empirically that historical events or Fels Institute in Ohio were beginning to report the de- velopmental trajectories for their subjects who were penods could be associated/kith changes in age (devel-. oprhental) function's. reaching adulthoo4 in. the 1960s and 1970s. The avail- Despite a rich formative history, the emergence of this ability of these eidensive longitudifial data motivated onentation, espeCially in American developmental psy- psychologists to address developmental issues over chology, has been rather recent. The first widely rec- longer segments of life than had been customary. And ognized American textbook that espoused a life-span the empirical findings about the relative pattern of sta- view, Life: A Psychological Survey, by Pressey,Janney, bility and change, predictability and discontinuity, and Kuhlen; was published in 1939. Not until the post- fueled a controversy overfundamental perspectives and WWII period was.the rubric "life-span" commonly used definitions (compare Kagan, 1980; Block, 1971; Thomae, to differentiate an "age-irrelevant" developmental psy- 1979; Sears, 1980). The data did no7coTrrm to con- chology from the .study of developmental processes in ventional-metvheories that had been relatively unchal- the age-specific academic specialties such as child de- lenged and prOductive when applied to developmental velopment or adolescent psychology that had formed in .issues in childhood and adolescence and strong differ- the early decades of this century. Research and teaching ences in interpretation arose. programs at the University of Chicago (i.e.,Havighurst, An even stronger impetus to the "rediscovery" of life- Neugarten) and the University of Bonn (i.e., Thomae) span orientations may have come from gerontologits. were forerunners. In the 1960s and1970s, several sym- Gerontology as a field of inquiry was itself evol)g posia at the University of West Virginiaadvanced the during the 1950s and 1960s when contributors such as conceptual and methodological frontiers of the life-span Robert Havighurst, Bernice Neugarten, and James Birren onentation, and the symposia monographs helped to in- began to articulate a psychology of aging. Gerontology, stitutionalize this specialization (Goulet rand Baltes, like other age-specific developmental specializations, 1970; Bakes and Schaie, 1973; Nesselroade and Reese, was influenced by the dominance of, the biological 1973;, Datan and Ginsberg, 1975; Datan and Reese, growth model, although here the main foals was on 1977y. senescence arid decline rather than growth and differ- It is likely that progress in life-span thinking about entiation. However, the orientation of the pgychological development was arrested by several related factors. One ,gerontologists was by necessity niuclibroader aan that was the intellectual dominance of child-focuseddevel- of their counterparts who studied children. The geron- opmental psychology. This specialty area placed the pri- tologists piked biological aging and behavioral changes mary causes of life-long behavioral tendencies within the in older adults within the context of cumulative life his- childhood years. Associated with the hegemony of child tories, linking contemporaneous changes with sequences psychology were conceptions of development that lim- and events over the entire life span. They-became as ited the scope of developmental thinking. These con- concerned with the emergence of novel behaviorg in their ceptionsso-called "biological growth models " as- older subjects as,they were with ones that could be con- sumed an end state(i.e., paturity) toward which strued as outgrowths of predisposing earlier experiences. development proceeds, sequential and irreversible de- They observed gage differences in the courses of aging velopmental changes, and universality of developmental and in behaviors among adults, and they sought expla- pattems across indiViduals. Placed againstman3obehay. nation of this variation in hi,storital circumstances and iors and psychological characteristics of children and`in chance occurrences such as illnesses, accidents, and adolescents undergoing apparently rapid quantitative and births of grandchildren that are more individualized in qualitative changes (e.g., bodily growth, sexual matur- their impact. In short, the plYchology of aging encour- ation), these modes of thinking about general develdp aged a .more contextualistic, historical approach to be- ment had considerable analytical utility. At the same havioral change and .development, a tendency encour- time, the biological growth model did not,fit adult be- aged by the interdisciplinary character of gerqntology as havioral changes as well as it did children's. SoMe psy- a field of inquiry. (An excellentexample of such a con- chologists argued that adults do not developin the same textualisfic approach to development is Urie Bronfen- sense as children and that thedomainof,de'Velopmental brenner's monograph, The Ecology Of Human Devel- psychology (equating behavioral development with re- opment, 1979). . strictive, biological analogues), should be bounded by As psychologists enlarged the concept of development the age-related "stabilization" of behavioral Changd in to incorporate behavioral changes that were notacle-' ,carlyaduithood (e,g., Flavell, 1970). quately desctibed by the biological growth model,, they One of the major influences on the shift in the defi- turned increasingly to the work of sociologists and his- nition and causal explanation of development. that oc-, torians for whom the context of behavior across the life curred in the 1960s arose from longitudinal studies of span was a central focus: The complementarityof.thd children initiated prior to WWII. Studies undertaken by individual change-social change approaches encouraged 401,40,A 23- . , Life-Span Perspective625 cross-disciplinary collaboration and the 'emergenceof change, for example, by secular improvements in nutri- common perspectives; one illustration is the series, Life- tion or health care, by historical events such as wars and Span Development and Behavior, begun in 1978 and depressions; or by evolving institutional changes like edited cufrently by Paul B Baltes, a developmental psy- industrialization,' retirement legislation, or the diffusion and-O.G. Brim, Jr., a sociologist: This works of.television. This last aspect impliesthat each birth is but one of several= regent products,,of the -emerging cohort potentially ages in a unique way. It also implies multidisciplinary interest in life-span processes that -rep- that in any given year in which the age differences in < resents a blending of disciplinary influences, making the a behavior or attitude are measured across a society's identification of unique contributions a difficult task. population two kinds of differences are manifest'. those s.- arising from'"normal" agingi.e developmental pat- Sociology terns that are relatively invariant across historical time Unlike psychology, no new life-span specialty has and those reflecting the impact of unique h4orical ex- formed within sociology. However, the lack of many periences of persons born in different years. Both of visible sign3) of a new life -span specialization in soci- thes anifestations are abstractions, for what is actually ology ma simply show thaf.sociologists have not felt obs rvedis an interaction between cohort experience and the need to "rediscover" this orientation or to differ- age. Finally, it implies that one way in which society's entiate it from their longstanding intellectual concerns institutions change is through the succession of cohorts with "socialization" (e.g., Brim, 1966; Goslin, 1969) the replacement of older persons by younger ones as or "age-differentiation" (e.g., Cain, 1959; 1964; Riley carriers of a unique cumulative experience and outlook et al., 1972; Elder, 1975). Indeed, sociological schol- and with a unique developmental history. Thus, social arship on aging from birth to death, amplified by contact change and individual (developmental) change are re- with psychologists and historians over the last decade, ciprocally and dynamically interrelated. hasonly-begun-to-tap-the-intellectual traditions of a-latent---Tile conceptual framework developed by Riley and life-span approach within the subdisciplines of social others reflects andi summarizes a broad scope of earlier psychology, social organization andsocial demography. literature on agidg and life-course. processes. For ex- Progress toward a comprehensive integration of these ample, sociologists and: social demographers such as traditions into a sociology of the life course has moved Cain (1964), Ryder (1965 )-, and much earlier Karl Mann- along three loosely coordinated fronts: .the sOciolOgy of heim (.1928; 1952) etaborated the Significance of gen- age stratification, socialization, and the social demog- erational and cohort successions and flows through the raphy of the family. Arnong the more programmatic con- society as major mechanisms of social change and of tributions toward this integration is the three volume ideological, conflict. Sorokin, (1941;19471, Parsons work of Matilda W. Riley and her associates, Aging and (1942), and Eisenstadt (1956) focused on the age struc- Society (1968; 1969; 1972). They reviewed the nearly ture of society and puizled over the question of why and inchoate literature on age-related behaviors of adults in when age is used by a society as a means of sorting the middle and latex years, identified a series of concep- people into positions, and as a device for allocating goods tual and methodological flaws, and presented a concep- and servicesmuch as social claills or sex serve these tual model for integrating and promoting multidiscipli- societal purposes. Subsequently, others have elaborated nary research on aging. The Riley et al. "age stratification" the implications of ordered and disordtred flows of birth model views persons as aging biologically and psycho- cohorts for the management of potential conflict by in- logically over the-entire span of life withinan evolving stitutions such as the schools and the economy (e.g., social context. Waring, 1975).- Some (e.g., Foner and Kertzer, 19781' The age-stratification rnodel.eniphaSizes the social have attended to other cultural settings, principally the aspects of aging in three respects. First, life -long aging East African "age-'set" societies where individuals not :reflects sequences of social positions,or trajectories of only experience life events in an age-relate& sequence social roles and associated statuses and perquisites that but also belong to a named group of like-aged individuals have age:related features. For example, schooling in who make "life-stage" transitions as a group. These childhood and adolescence typically precedes labor force cross-societal comparisons have suggested culturally entrance for American males, followed by marriage or specific as well as universal patterns of aging and human parenthood. Second, soclIte positions carry a burden of development. This line of inquiry has provided a natural custom and.rules that prescribe behavior for their oc- _link to an intensifying interest among anthropologists in cupants. These prescriptions mold and reformulate be- aging as a life-long rfrocess(cf. Keith,. 1980). liavior ?ind personalityas the person learns to perform Finally, the effort by Riley, Neugarten (i.e. Neugarten and moves through sequences- of positions; also, they and Datan, 1973), and other sociologists to articulate the regulate thp flow or selection of persons into positions. connection between the age-graded features of biological Third; both The patterns of *logical aging and the se- and sociocultural life events, on the one hand, and his- quences. of age-related roles themselves are subject to torical and institutional change, on the other, has linked 's 236. 'j4. 626 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK the life-span approach to other active areas of research By and large, however, socialization research was nor on the society's organizing structures. Forexample, the cast within a life-span perspective with sustained inten- age stratification model enables sociologistS andanthro- sity by sociologists. American sociologists have viewed pologists who study macro-socialor institutional patterns personality development as part of the agenda ofchg.. of socioeconomic .inequality and .mobility to integrate hood and adolescent socializationto reflect the tem- their research with that of social psychologists and de- plate of social norms, cultural valtes, and, sanctioned velopmentalists studying micro-social changei behaviors of the collectivity as these are impressed upon change over the course of individuals' lives. (See "The the prea'clult. The dominant tendency has been to think Sociology of Life Chances" below.) These types of in- of individual behavior in termsof4the functioning and tegrations have fostered the "multilevel" character of persistence of societysocializing the child to assume lifjcspan research. his or her place in the social orderand therefore to A second sociological tradition that is being tapped emphasize commonalities in childrearing patterns that reflect themes of continuity (e.gArin/ergenerational per- , in integrating a sociology of the life course is sociali- - zanon research. "Socialization" is a term used widely si.. stence of values) and of consistency (e.g., correspond- since the1940s to referto the complex processes ence between the "needs" 'or"functions" of society whereby an individual learns and modifies the behaviors, and the personalities or attributes .of a society's popu- values,sand emotions that are deemed appropriate by the lation). (See Brim and Ryff, 1980; Brim, 1980; Elder, community and larger society. In the mid-1960s, O.G. 1975; and DiRenzo, 1977 for insight into these trends Brim,Jr.'s conceptual monograph placed socialization within social psychology as a subdiscipline of sociol- within an explicit life-span orientation (Brim, 1966)..lt ogy.) In part, this interrupted and episodic intellectual differentiated the socialization patterns of children from development is a consequence orsociology's lack oL a those experienced by adults through the life cycle in well articulated concept of personality and of its inat- terms of the demands placed upon the "learner," what tention to mechanisms of personality change (develop- was to be learned, and the learner's robin the learning ment).,In addition, socialization research up to the 1970s process. Brim thus reflected an orientation thathad lain focused primarily on rle transitions that were substanr dormant in social psychological writings about "cultural tially correlated with' chronological agese.g., the and personality" since the seminal research of W.I., "disengagement" or the retired elderly, entry into par- Thomas (Thomas, 1909; Thomas and Znaniecki, 1918) enthoodlending it a character not unlike the age- and John Dollard (1935), and tapped even more historical specialized approaches of developmental Rsychology up roots into the late 19th century (e.g., Giddings, 1897). to WWII. The intensification of life-span approaches is At the same time, John Clausen, a sociologist asso- undoubtedly tied to the contact with life-span develop- ciated with the longitudinal Berkeley. Child Guidance mental psychologists in search of an understanding of Study, elaborated a concept of life-long behavioral and "context" as well as to other institutionalizing influences. personality chahge through a succession of shifts in roles The third area in which a life-span orientation is taking and role sequences that comprised the course of adult form in sociology lie at the interface of social demog- lifefor persons in differedt .social classes- (Clausen, raphy and social history. It is a longstanding practice for 1972). Clausen (1968) also edited a collection of essays social demographers, whether sociologists, 'historians, on the life-span nature of socialization, anenterprik or economists, to study birth cohorts as a wayOf gaining sponsored by the SoCial Science Research Council's insight into the impact of secular change on fertility Committee on Socialization and Socjal Structure. This behaviors, mortality and health, dud migrationthat is, work on the development of children info adulthood set on behaviors affecting the "demographic equation".The the stage for several other empirical studies of adult last decade saw the, diffusion of the cohort method of socialization during the 1970s (e.g., Kohn, 1969; Kohn analysis and the application of a behavioral approach to and Schooler, 1973; 1978). Research on adult sociali- the study of change into social or family history (e.g., zation was advanced by another SSRC Committee, Vinovskil, 1977). At the same time, sociologistsstudy` 'Work and Personality in the Middle Years," founded ing the dynamic Felation of social structure to personality in 1972 under the chairmanship of Orville G. Brim, Jr. had begun to probe its historical dimension. For exam- This 'group highlighted the middle years (ages 40-60), ple, Alex Inkeles and David Smith (1974) explored the an area neglected.bNhe child.focusof much develop- complexities of contact between "premodern" man with mental research and the focus of geiontology on old age. the institutions of industrial society e.g., (factories and Likewise die focus on transitions between work and non- schools) to gain an understanding of how the personality *ork roles and attention to phenomena such as the "mid- traits we associate with modern mankind are elicited and life crisis" emphasized the 'continued development of selectively promoted. Glen Elder (1980) contrasted two the individual throughout life and gave conceptual co: cohorts of California child had experienced the herence to the study of adult socialization. economic and social disruptio s of the Great Depression 447, L Life-Span Perspect' 627 . at different points in their developmental histories, not- man capital (e.g., skills and abi i re components ing the importance of historical events as major influ- of production are old ones (Marshall, 1948, see Rosen, ences on personality differences between groups-born at 1977, for a review of recent empcal research). A sys- different times but also among persons ,within a given tematic statement of human capital theory by Gary cohort. These simultaneous intellectual developments Becker (1964) prompted economists to develop theories came together in a series of cross-disciplinary research of "permanent" earnings, and to analyze life-time de- projects and monographs (Demos and Boocook/1978; cisions about work and leisure as well as longitudinal Hareven, 1978) in which scholars viewed personality trajectories of earnings. For labor economists, this life- and family structure at both a reflection and a modifier span approach was as revolittionary as were earlier de- of historical change during the nineteenth century. cSee velopment's in life-time consumption decisions (Rosen, the subsequent section "The Social History of Family 1977:4; see Stigler (1954) for a review of history of Relations and Human Developnienti") r economic research on consumption). Becker's (1q.5) seminal writings on the allocation of lime to home pro- Other Disciplines duction as well as to work in the conventional (paid) A life-span Orientation to behavioral change also emerged economy formed the core of the "new, home 'econom- from the work of historians on family dynamics during ics," .an approach that. has led to the reorganization of Industrialization in Europe and North. America. Vinov- university-based schools of home economics and in- skis (1977) notes that multidisciplinary interest in the creases in their faculties of behavioral scientists trained historical family altered the traditional methods and con- in economics and child psychology. The empirical work ceptual models that historians used. For example, to in life cycle economics over the last decade has dem- recreate the structure and processes of family life they onstrated a decidedly demographic character, for ex- began to utilize quantitative data from censuses and vital ample, being applied to the analysis of fertility behaviors record's. Htorical demographers such as Louis Henry in connection With labor force participation (e.g., Eas- (1956) and Wrigley (1969) used parish records, while terlinr-1-980-)--Some-eoonernictings-on-soeiaheettrity Peter Las lett(1972) at Cambridge University recon- also show evidence of a life-span orientation (e.g., Mo- structed preind strial family typologies from manuscript digliani, 1966; Heckman, 1974). This work casts the censuses. The latter schOlarship revealed that conven- economic decisions of the parental generation (e.g., in- tional thinking about the large, extended family of prein- vestments in their own retirement security through time dustrial ernes was Mistaken. In fact,.family, size was at work and savings, and investments of time in devel- small, 'nuclear in form, and rather constant over time and oping,the human capital of their children) in terms of the ..cultures. But this work was later criticized by Lutz Berk- expected behaviors of children when the latter are of ner (1975) and others for its static approach to the working age and. the former are in the post-productive familyin other words, for its lack of a dynamic; life- years. course. perspective. Research into the historical family Perhaps the lesser role of economics in influencing a also drew from family sociologistS and the concept of life-span approach to behavior reflects the field's narrow the "family cycle" (Glick, 1947; Hill and Mattessich,' focus on the optimizing, rational decision-maker and the 1980). This work has attempted to understAnd the chang- relatively minor impact of "psychological economics" ing role% f the fainily in terms of the illierplay of the (Katona, 1975) within the discipline. (One exception to sociopsychological development ofeits constituents, the this observation is the 14-year study by James Morgan . developmental tempo of the family or household aggre- and-associates (e.g., Duncan and Morgan, 1980) of in: gate, and the penetration of historical events and secular dividual and family economic behaviors. These studies changes. In effect, the new behavioral approach of social are rich in the behavioral and psychological data from historians has come to be a study of the dialectical re-. which life-span analyses can be executed.) Moreover, ktionships among individual time, social time, and his- the human capital Orientation in labor economics takes torical time (e.g., Hareven, 1977; a similar set. of dis- a 'view of human development that.contrasts with a cen- tinctions about the various tempos of individuals' lives tral tenet of the lifelspan approach. Namely, these human has been made by non-historians, e:g., Neugarten, and capital theorists see the potentials for up-grading skills Hagestad, 1976; Klaus Riegel; 1979). . or changing the competitive qualifications of workers in Econon}ists have a somewhat longer history of interest, rather determinate age-graded terms. That is, workers than historians in life-long behavioral changes, although (and their potential and actual employers) have a finite their contributions to an emerging multidisciplinary con- range of years (ages) in which to invest in improving or ception of human development and social change during altering their "stocks" of human capital. The range is the last decade have been slight. This lack of influence limited according to the theoren1 assumption-,now is rather surprising, since the ideas that individuals .are, being challenged by life-span rese rch in other disci- human agents of production and that investments in.hu- plinesthat capacities and interests to learn and to con- . 4 Y c 628 SSRC FIVE-YEAROUTLOOK diff tnbute1productively to the economy are greatest in'the ening influence' on conceptual thinking: until recently young and deteriorate after middle:age. If the corpusof has not manifested an explicit life-span orientation. That emerging life-span research is assimilated by economics is, an "anthropology of age . .. is barely being orga- over the next decade, one should see somereorientation nized" (Keith,1980). However; anthropological- re- of both theory and research within the human capital search'on age as a basis of social organization is now framework. At the same time, the quantitative formalism underway. For example,.culturally defined markers such of this economic approach holds promising benefits for as puberty, marriage of the first son, ordeath of a parent life-span research in other disciplines, as illustrated, for are being studied for their use asscheduling signals for example) by the influence of econometrics on life-span transitions from one "stage" of life to the next (e.g., approaches to the study of social mobility and inequality Stewag, 1977; Fontr and Kertzer,' 1978). Other work in sociology (see "The Sociology of Life Chances" focuses on individual differences in the course of aging etting (e.g., below). and human development within a cultural Anthropological research on culture and personality LeVine, 1978), and on the capacity of older persons to played a major historical role from the 1920s to the 1940s create cultural norms for age-related behaviors through in sharperring the concept of socialization as usedby innovative formation of "senior citizens" communities sociologists and anthropologists (Clausen, 1968). These (e.g . , .Rosow, , .1976). studies were rooted in the influence of Franz Boas,pri- It seems obvious in retrospect/hat the broad and dif- manly through his students, Ruth Benedict and Margaret fuse historical roots of a life-span approach to behavioral Mead. Benedict's (1938) paper on continuities and dis- change and development within ,several of the social continuities in cultural conditioning conveyed a life-span sciences might have prompted cross-disciplinary schol- theme in characterizing the synchronies and asynchronies arship. Initial realization of this potential witiloin.the last between biological changes in individuals over the life decade has beep aided by the institptionalizingactivities 0' cycle and the demands of culturally scheduled shifts in of private foundations, interdisciplinary profess'iveal or- roles, responsibilities, and vppected abilities. Edivard ganizations, and federal mission agewie.s. at has Sapir (1934) was among the first anthropologists to em- emerged from this synergism ofinfluences both inside phasize the reciprocal relationship between personality and outside the academy is not yet atheory with explicit and cultureto view personality as a transducer of cul- hypotheses that can be addressed in empirical research. tural influences rather than as the passive expression of Instead, the recognized consensus is more of,amodel; them. This view contrasted with the major theme of paradigm, or world view than, an explicit theory. As cultural continuity and the emergence of modal person- such, it consists in the main of ratherigeneral statements alities within cultural contexts that mirrored the neo- -that guide more explicit theoretical thinking andthe di- Freudian psychoanalytic influence of Abram Kardiner. rection of research and social policy related to human (1939), even though the latter introduced an explicitly development and social change:At is to be judged more inter-generational linkage into the 'relationship between for its usefulness in this latter respect than for its truili- personality and the social system. fulness as systematic theoretical statements that can be Culturally defined stages of the life cycle have been tested scientifically: used by ethnographers to 1)rganize and describe cultures. The following section illustrates this-usefulness ins And a subdiscipline of anthropological gerontology has three research arenasarenas in which ,the life-span ap- emerged since WWII in which the roles, statuses, and proach has reoriented concepts and methods, led tO cu- treatment of old people is the focus in both cross-cultural mulative, science, or prompted productive confrontations comparisons (e.g., Simmons, 1945; Cowgill and Holmes, over metatheoretical differences.ThesoCiology Of life . 1972) and domestic studies (e.g., Clark andAnderson, chances, psychometric intelligence,' and" social his- ' 1967; Myerhoff and Simic, 1978;. Keith, 1979). This tory of family relations and humandevelopment each body of work has served an important "debunking" illustrate the application or explication of some basic function, showing how North American conceptions of life-span themes and propositions within research pro- the behaviors of the elderly may be culturally specific grams of three disciplines. - and not an inevitable feature of biological aging. An excellent example is ,the challenge .to Cumming' and e .1 Henry's (1961) "disengagement'.' hypothesis. Psycho- NEW APPitOACHES INRESEARCI-I. THAT.. logical and social withdrawal by the elderlythe lack REFLECT A LIFE-SPAN ORIENTATION ' of vitality, intellectual activity, andindependenceate not universal behaviors, even among all NorthAmerican' it is premature to predict whether a life -spin approach ethnic groups (e.g., Kiefer, 1974; Vatuk, 1980; Cool, to the study of development and agingtyillultimately, -thearf and 1980). blossom into a new discipline with colielent Valuable as this anthropological work has beep as a special methods. One early (but not defini,j.ite) indication corrective on ethnocentric perspectives and as a sharp- is whether applications of the thematic orientation pro- f' ' .96 t 'd 2 3 9 I Life-Span Perspective629 duce cumulative social science and 'prompt the devel- tional mechanisms of socioeconomic transfer and factors opment of paradigm shifts within existing disciplines. that mitigate the effects of these mechanisms in the lives Within the last ten years there have been promising signs of individuals, they saw themselves to be investigating for the vitality of. the life-span perspective applied witkin societal changes in the dispersion of socioeconomic sta- existing disciplines of sociology, psychology, and social tuses through t succession of generations. (Note the history. For example, the crystallization of a life-span parallels with thRiley et al., (1972) "age-stratifica- paradigm in...the study of social inequality and mobility tion" mddel,)t: by sociologists and some economists is quite visible., Duncan'g (1967) schema of the socioeconomic life This scholarly development illustrates the scientific fruit- cycle expressed this priness of stratificationin terms of fulness of the life-span approach as a basis for cumulating life-span experiences of a hypothetical birth cohort. It and integrating social science researchacryss disciplit characterized inequalities with the cohort at birth by nary boundaries and levels\of analysis (i.e., micro-social/ the socioeconomic statuses, genetic encfowments, cul- individual v. s. +rnacro-sociAl/institutional levels). tural and racial features, and related' faCtors acrosspa- rental households and community milieus. These ine- qualities of social background were taken as the antecedents THE SOCIOLOGY OF LIFE CHANCES SOCIAL INEQUALITY , AND STRATIFICATION IN LIFE-SPAN PERSPECTIVE of educational differences, which in turn were antecedent to variabilityin occupational and economic statuses Over the last two decades, progress toward cumulative across the working life of the cohort. By studying in- ocial science has been greater in the subdiscipline of terindividual differences in hierarchical standingacross soci stratification and mobility research than in any the successive "stages" or phases of the cohort life ofr field of sociology. In recognizing this achievement, cycle, Blau and Duncan portrayed the pattern of social there can be little dispute about the significance of Blau mobility over the lice span.-Their framework permitted and Duncan's (1967) monograph, The American Occu- them to examine, for example, to what extent years of pational Structure, for sociological theofx and research school attainment across individuals reorganized the pat- during this period. This work and,the related writings terns of socioeconomic inequality ascribed by social of Duncan recast the empirid'al stagy of tOcial mobility background, as the cohort entered the work force and into inquiries about the inter- and iktragenerational proc- achievea pikes in the social hierarchy. Bycomparing esses of socioeconomic stratification. They provided a and contrasting this process of vratification in the ex- rudimentary life-span framework the socioeconomic periences of successive cohorts, they were able to assess life cyclefor cumulative studies that extended 'and changes in inequality in the society that were associated, elaborated the d'escriptive featufes of stratification as 'a with changes in the antecedent-consequent relationships dynamic process of generational.and cohort replacement between social background, schooling, and occupational inthe. society over time. This framework helped to or- careers. ganize and focus discussion about questions ofnequality and the transmission...cif differential opportunities from Pa th Analysis and Struettifs# Equatio n' Models generation to generati6n, a discus'sion that involveda The impact of beth.this definition of social stratification variety of theoretical- points of departure and social -sei- and the framework of its study might not have hew so entistsdoutside the discipline.It provtded a focus for pervasive or long-lasting without Duncan's (1966b9 in- discussions of public policy ibouf poverty and human troduction of path anal;,sis as a statistical tool foiCsoci- rights that prevailed during the, 1960s and early 1970s °logical research. Indeed,. neither the 'conceptual point as well as for debategrbetween a'ademic scholars. Moie of view embodied in the socioeconomic life cycle nor generally, the line of work associated with DuncariPand path analysis itself was the diicovery of.,131au or Duncan. The American Occupational Structure became an ex- But the conjunction of the two vas a pdwerful combi- emplar for the design and analysis of national studies of nation that bdth added fo the scientific pdtential of the mobility and inequitlity. Yet the greatest impact of this Duncan-Blau approach to stratification and illustrated program of research on the di%cipline may, have been how sociologists might represent and study "causal" through its introduction of an- approach to "causal mod= processes generally. :° eling" of hypothesized proCessual relationshipS (e.g., Path analysis, de%7eloped by theepopulation genetici4 social,mobility) that could be applied to areas other than Sewall Wright, enabled Duncan to pArtition the statistical social inequality' and mobility. correlations among the constituent phases of the socio- Blau and Duncan cast the study of social mobility as economic life cycle (i,e., the, relation between two in- the study of the process of stratification. Following So- stances of iderindividuai differences) into the quantifi- rokin (1927), they conceived of nobility as a ptocess able paths, of direct and indirect .influence between of social metabolism Whereby the inequalities that char- hypothetically) antecedent and consequent event's'. For acterize the sdciety in one generation are reproduced,in example, the coirelation of social background And adult whble'O'r in part, in the next.,By studying intergenera- socioeconomic status (elg., as indexed by parental and ctv 240 mg. * st4 630SSKC FI'E -YEAR OUTLOOK adult occupational prestige scores)-could be decomposed - methods. Their"Wisconsin status attainment model'\ algebraically into a precise statistical estimate of the di- (e.g.', Sewell, Haller, and Portes, 1969; Sewelland,Hau rect effect of background orr attainment and the indirect ser, 1975)a sociop'sychologicalconceptioirof social effect of background through schooling. In addition, in stratification=in some sense anticipated the Blau-Dun- t6e socioeconomic life cycle. But by order to use this statistical method-Hite-analyst was forced can framework for to be explicit about the hypothetical ,model tobe esti: the mid-1970s a rapidly, expanding literature had ap- elsewhere mated: that is, to specify all direct and indirect relation- peared in which analysts at Wisconsin and statistical ships and to examine vanance left unexplained in each both elaborated and replicated the quantitative vanable by the "causal" system of alleged antecedents. models of social (institutional), psychological(indivi'd- So, for example, Blau and Duncan could analyze the, ual) and social psychological (interpersonal) factors in mobility-inducing effects of formal schooling that were educational, occupational, and economic achievement independent from inequalities of social background (see Sewell and Hauser, 1980, r a comprehensive i.e., inequalities of background that weretransmitted, summary). through schooling and converted into inequalities in the Melvin Kohn and associates at the National. Insti- cohort's occupational attainments in adulthood. tute of .Mental Health have bridged thetraditions of he analytical power that path analysis provided for Duncan-Blau-Sewellitratification research and psycho- stratification research wa§ twofold. First, its requirement logical studies of mental health (Kohn, 1969, Kohn and *or a precisely specified model and its capacity to provide Schooler, 1973; 1978). By following a national sample statistical estimates of the model's credibility helped to- of adult maloworkers for roughly a decade, Kohn" has fornalize and make concrete the theoretical discussions studied how the requirements and organization of work of Nbility processes. Analysts could visualize and cri- a'ncNob changes influence the values of workers, the tique each other's work far more easily thanbefore be- goals they have in reanng their children: and even the cause of the technique's specificity aboutthe entire sys- men's cognitive or intellectual styles. This work also has tem ofgelationships being considered and/orexcluded. adopted the quantitative statistical models of stratifica- This facility increased the frequency of cross-disciplinary tion, research to explicate-alife-spanconception of the citation,cespecially between economists and sociologists interplay between work histories and persOnality. For nominally at work on the same topic; it also increased example, Kohn and' colleagues demonstrate the recip- the ngor with which theoretical disagreements couldbe rocal relationships between changes in the demandsof pursued. Second, path analysis led torapidaecumulation., sU&essive worksituations=e g., whether the jobs de- of descriptive findings and to a'deeper understanding of manded self-direttion or were highly supervised;whether the process of stratification. Because the technique was they called for the handling of complex wivel circum- bas4 on product-moment correlations, analystscould stances or were substantially routinizedaddchanges synthesize complek path models 'from fragments of data in the intellectual capacities of workers in different oc- across several independent tquiries, subject to the con- cu.patiorial trajectories or job sequences. While it was 'straints of population and sampling comparabilities.This true that men with greater potential at the outset were strategy of incrementakmodel building isillustrated by recruited more freqUently into jobs requiring greater in- Duncan, Featherman, and Duncan (1972) who elabo- tellectual flexibility, it was just as likely that the man rated and extended the basic 5-variable model that un was socialized by the job irrespective ofpersonality or derlay the analysis of The American Occupational Struc- sociological factors, at the beginning of the study. By ture. TheyintroduCed cognitive and motivational variables implication, persoriality changei.e., cognitive capac- that were thought to intepvene btween socialback- , itiesafter childhood and adolescence can be observed ground and scholastic attainment, examined the potential readily through the study of successive role contexts that of schools to affedt the distnbution of achievement apart organize the tempo and content of -adultbehavior.' from the personal and background qualities of students The influence of The American Occupational Struc- in these Ichools, and investigated therole of selected ture Yangedbeyond stratification research toalter the life -cycle events in adulthood in altering the pattern of empirical standards of sociological inquiry. In turn, these socioeconomic careers. developmenti reflected back on stratification research to increase its quantitative and statisticalcomplexity.' At Two other instances of the integrating effect of path ?, analysis (structural equation methods) and thelife-span the dimeT4 American Occupational Structure was pub- -approach appear in the respective writings`of 11itliam fished, sociologists were developing methodologies for H. Sewell and Melvin Kohn and their colleagues.Sevin "causal" analysis using survey data. Duncan's intro- has followed a longitudinal panel of Wisconsinhigh duktion of path analysis into sociology, coupled with its school-senior§ for over 20 years. The richness of the data. visibly productive use in stratification research, met a that Sewell, and associates have collected OAsocial back: receptive audience in the discipline. Later, Duncan and gr=ound, schrling, work histories, and life events from, others recognized relationships among econometrics, psychometrics, path analysis, and structuralequation . this cohort suits the application' ofstructural equation Z41 Life-Span Perspective631 models, as illustrated in Duncan's (1975 ) primer, Intro- counts prompted this recognition: Duncan himself au- aStructural Equation Models. (See Bielby and thored "a chapter, `:1:19w Much Opportunity is There?" Hauser, 1977b, for a review of the increasinguse of'l in the first. federal social report (Pel on Social Indi- structural equation models in sociology.) This intellec- cators, 1969) in which data from th lau- Duncan study foal bridge, together with the development of statistically appeared. efficient computer programs for esti/nating comPle:i . The second factor was connected directly with policy structural equations with latent or unobserved variables debates, within academe and without. The American (e.g., Joreskog and Sorbom, 1979), invited the intro- Occupational Structure was published just after the Civil duction -of new technologies in economics and educa- Rights Act of 1964, and in'theimidst of political and tional psychology into the sociology of, stratificalgt and ,social attention to President Johnson's "Great Society" permitted e'en further precision in model construction program. Life-span statistical models of the socioeco- and estimation. For example, Bielby (Bielby et al., 1977; nomic life cycle often helped to focus questions of in- Bielby and Hauser, 1977a) has compared interpretations equality and mobility, 0 ofthe role of schooling in occupational and economic %. The best illustration of this>, 'mUlus, which brought attainment in which detailed issues of data quality2--er- widespread publicity for th d, was Christopher rors in variables and relationshipsare modeled expitc- Jencks' Inequality (Jencks, e ., 1972). Jencks used itly as part of the theories to be compared. Inone sense'structural equations, the framework of the socioeco- this mode of theory specification epitomizes the poiitiv- nomic life cycle, the approach of incremental model istic approach within sociology for it takes themeas- building, and longitudinal data about social background, urement of "true," relationships and "valid" concepts schooling, and work careers to discuss the policy im- as equally important: . - plicatians of the manifest pattern of inequality and its In sum, the stimulus of-Blau and Duncan's life-spin transmission across generations. More than any other approach to the study of social stratific. \on had wide- recent piece of social science research and pollicyanal- rtfiging responsei,in sociology. Yet the pact ordris ysis, Inequality exemplified for the public and the social wprk lest understoocrasrepresenting-th terdepenth_science community alike the .'practical" value of this -ence among new ways- 9f dynamic thinki but approach to issues in social stratification. FiolO4calrelationships,a search for net tclinologfe.s f that areapproprfate fortis new tapproacli',°an e ability-of resepich questions thaqcouldbewswered or -Span Themes Emerging in Stratificatiin Research rephrased) beirkt."throua the appticatiCiiii these tech- Soci°gists who study patterns of inequality and social niques. Through this interplay, richly 'detailed 'q rabbi ty in American society, as well as those who re- 16. tip tative (statistical) models of the process of stratific n flect on their impliCations for public policy, have begun have emerged, and the full potential for further to recognize that some of tIke same themes that charac- e,$o- ration and synthesis .is as yet untapped. fve'vtrtheles, terize human tevelopment in life-span perspective also progress toward cumulative social science has proceeded apply to the socioeconomic life cycle. In constructing apace with marked upgrading in the quantitative sophis- this integration, the Rileyet al. model Qf age stratifi- tication that 'is, required for academic sociologiswho -,cation (1972; 1976) has supplied a highly useful con- seek to keep up with, let alone'contribute too, this Id. ceptual schema. If One thinks of theprocess of stratifi- cation as consisting of life-long trajectories of achievement behaviors; then growing evidence from research on the Issues of Public Policy ,4,locioetonomic life cycle indicates that the develop- Another quite important consequence of this develop- mental course of achievement 1) is responsive to:many ment in sociological research was the greater ease with causes; 2) proceeds in many directions, 3) is bothcon- which it promoted and focused policy-related discussions tinuous and discontinuous, 4) entails, greater about inequality, discrimination, and opportunities for differences as it unfolds, and 51 varies, across mobility. Several factors facilitated this practicl out- the experiences of successive birth cohorts.i In addition come of academic research. One was theistorical this' complei pattern of achievement throughout the fluence of the social indicators "movement' during the life-course is generated by age-graded events, cohort- late '60s and -early '70s. This public polic-related em:- forming events, as well as "idiosyncratic" events in phasis on soeietal monitoring and the development of each individual's life. As such, discontinuities in -normative statistical indicators of social process recog-' 'achievement-from one phase of life to the net are to be nized and embraced models such as that of the socio- as expected; as continuities. And, patterns of continuity economic life cycle (e.g., Land and Spilerman, 1975). and discontinuity in achievement are historically varia- The connection between the Duncan-Blau approach, -,ble.. SeIected findings from the cumulaticni of stratifi- with its visibly demographic conceptual base, and efforts - cation research amplify these points and illustrate an of the time to develop a set of demographic social ac- empirical base of life-span propbsitions and themes. . .20 .4 l 3r3 632 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK ' * Some of the strongest continuities in achievement are tedontinuity in socioeconomic achievement is not con- intergenerationZTot example, correlations between the n to overall reductions in occupational inequality parental and filial generations in performances onstand- in the distribution of the "Statuses" of jobs on some ardized IQ tests. Sociologists'conceive of IQ as the m s- scale Of social standing or income. Rather, it seems to ured.ability to do school work,. an IQ score is, among arise from the substitution of formal education for social :f other things, a performance on an achievement task. dais or background as the means of access to better jobs Intenndividual differences in IQ tend to asyniptote be- or careers. Obversely, the continuitybetween achieve- tween ages 8-10; thereafter, inequality (but not neces- ment in school and at work has gained, especially the sanly plasticity) in this form of-scholasic achievement relative economic value of higher education (Feathdrman remains very constant through adolescence. Whether it and Hauser, 1978). does so thereafter is not well established (Schaie, 1979).-,--/- Explaining the overall trend toward'greater continuity Neither are the ryasons for this developmental pattern between the scholastic achievements of youths and the .unders it may reflect Ineasureihent error, occupational and economic'attainments of adults is prob- lagged getic effects, age- graded school environments, lematic. Whether it reflects greatervaluation of higher or all of these- . The parent-child or intergenerational cor- education in post-induStrial society, the effects of "Ate- relation of IQ is roughly 0.5; but the intergenerational dentialism" in the allocation of workers to slots in the discontinuity in this form of achievement is large. For economy, or both is not known from available research example, a linear combinaticr of social background char- (Featherman and Hauser, 1978; Featherman, 1980). actenstics-2sodial class, race, region of residenceac-. There are some major exceptions to this historical counts for less than half of the variation amongchildren's trend. Oenvolves black workers, for whom intergen- IQ scores (Featherman, 1980). 1ational continuities of achievementmodest though Other scholastic achievements (e.g., grades in courses, they are for Americans overallare just now beginning grade point average, teacher evaluations, years of school to approximate the pattern that has been typical inwhite completed) and attainments in the world of work (e.g., families (Featherman, and Hauser, 1978). Another ex- earnings) are less connected to the similar social achieve- ception involves young white males who were under age ments of the parental generation than is IQ. Thelife- 35 in the mid-1970s. For these men, the. economicvalue cycle pattern is one of greater attenuation of discontinuity of higher education seemed to. have fallen as they took as the filial generaticrn ages. Inaddition, secular trend their first jobs. Based on recent analyses, it is possible or social change across the experiencesof successive to interpret such a cohort pattern as a temporary aber- birth cohortsof Americans' (and perhaps elsewhere) ap- ration that stemmed from a. unique confluence, of de- pears to be weakening these linkages evenfurther. Take mographic, economic, and historical. events (unprece- for example the length of formal schoolingyears com- dented cohort size, downturn-in federal expenditures for di pleted. The major pfedictor of length of schooling is not research and development, and the effect's of the Vietnam parentalsocial"class", but son's or daughter's 1.() military dealt on school attendance patterns; see Feath- (Featherman, 1980). Educational aspirations, significant erman and Hauser, 1978). But the important point for others' school plans, IQ, and grade point average explain a consideration, of life-time continuitiesin achievement about 7Qyo.of educational differences,among individuals. and their vulnerability to historical and social change is Interestingly, the net effects of parental characteristics that this` unique confluence may have cost the college are effectively zero in these analyses. And, across suc- class of 1974 in the U.S.. about 10% of its life-time v . cessiye,biil cohorts of at least American men, these earnings (Welch, 1979).79). associations of social background (e.g., race, class, farm The normative fe4ures of the age-graded life cycle origins) are getting weaker (Featherman and Hauser; are linked to achievement patterns, too. For anygiven "1978). At least this is so for education through grade 12. ,biith cohort there is a statistically normative age profile In a major respect, this declining persistence of achieve- to the entrance into and exit from thefaiitilof origin, ment from generation to generation stems fromsecular school, work, and the family of procreation (Hogan, change in the population distribution of schoqin 1978). Whether such age-graded behaviors are socially the lower tail. Perhaps this reflects a legacyorNrclus- normativesubject to posittve/negative sanctioningin trialization and child labor laws. In any case, historical adlition to being statistically nbrmative has yet to be change has altered the intergenerational pattern of con- firmly established. But 'there are consequences for tinuity and change in scholastic achievement. achievement that ensue from deviations from the not-, Turning to occupations and careers,, one finds, at least mItiVe order and pace of life-cycle events (e.g., Hogan, for the U.S., secular declines in thepredictability of 1980). These effects are easiest to illustrate in contrasting achievement from the attainments of parents and assn= the connections between jobs and schooling for Amer- elated aspects of social background. But unlike the sit- icti women with' thow of men. Secular trendwin the uation for length of schooling, this trend toward greater American female life cycle during-the 1970s have mark- t,. -.. - ifigt wv D A- (1.1_,_ Life-Span Perspective633 edly changed the labor force participation ofwomen in developmental psychology. It representsa major intel- atprime marital and childbearing ages-25to 34. lectual testing ground for the. scientific vitality andprom- Whereas two decades ago only one-third of suchwomen. ise of life-span themes and propositions. worked, today about 55% do. Seventy-five'percent of women in that age bracket who do not have children are employed. However, over 90% of the men in theseages PSYCHOMETRIC INTELLIGENCE COMPETING are'in the lab"Or force, and tffiy tend to work with fewer INTERPRETATIONS ABOUT DEVELOPMENTAL CHANGE IN interruptions and more frequently in full-time,jobs:Thus, ADULTHOOD AND OLD AGE despite recent shifts that have rendered the femalelife Sociologists and psychologists have longstanding inter- 'cycle more like that of the male, the family cycle is still ests in the cOgnitive development of children and ado: more integrally related to the socioeconomic life cycle _lescents, and tests of intelligence have been usedto of females than of males (Van. Dusen and. Sheldon, measure growth and change in mental abilities since the 1976). early decades of the 20th century. Developmentalre- What are the cons `uences for achieve nt? Relative search on mental abilities has been focusedon scholastic to males, working wo en tend to experience more down- achievement, on performance-in the formal schoolsys- ward social mobility I they have their families and find tems by predicting which children were less (or more) their ov7rtareers. Thy acquire less` job' experience'at likely to be,able tq do school work at each grade level. each age men, ng job-to-job moves le# pre- Among the topics of great interest is whether children dictabled less condi ional on job characteristics than are promoted on the basis of tested ability or, alterna- for men. ere is less ctinuity of occupational achieve- tively, on the basis of social class and Other factorsof ment foromen (Dunto and Featherman, forthcoming). social background. (Empirically one observesa positive In addition, the connection of schooling to successive correlation between socioeconomic strata and IQscores; jobs differs. For men, the direct influence of formal it arises from 'both the differential genetio,.endowments schooling on jobs is greatest at career beginnings (i.e., and cultural contexts Of social groups te.g., Scarr and first job). It declines thereafter as experience and on-the- _Weinberg, .1978; see Featherman, 1980, for a review of- job training become more unpoifant For subsequentca- research].) Siiit mid WWII were IQ tests administered reer moves. For women, however, formal ?choolipg re- 0 widely to adults in the U.S. or were soci4 scientists- tains importance, as the major access to subsequent jobs stifdying the differential abilities of adults. Even then, as women 'are forced to renegotiate for new jobs on the psychometric research on the intelligence of,oun_g_adults basis of their school credentials or formal training rather predominated, as scientists examined the iY times of than on a stream of cumulative experience. Overall, how- scholastic success and achievements in the world of ever, the net effect is for less continuity between achieve- work. C , ment in school and in work for women as a function of "deviant" age-grade patterns in their socioeconomic life Developmental Aspects of Intelligence. ti cycle (Sewell et al., 19801. Within psychology, theoretical dissensus has surrounded In this of cumulative research on the the studs/ of cognitive development in adults and the process of stratification one sees the imprint of a life- aged. For instance,, the putatively minor developmental span orientation. Achievement behaviors across the life changes in adulthood and supposedly universal senescent ..cycle take-place in a sequence of institutional contexts declines in old age clash with evidence and points of the home,school,work/economy. The age-graded fea- view drawn from the emerginglife-span paradigy (eom- ttites of this sequence give rise to the socioeconomic life pare Horn and Donaldson, 1980, and Willis and balms, =,, cycle as one aspect, of the7general life course. Social 1980). Despite such theoretical dissensus, psychologists. .:changes in the connections tbetweeri, these :institution's studying psychometric intelligence havecome to agree ,alter the pattern of continuity and change in human de- that global measures such. as single IQ score -can-no 4, velopment, as do factors that independently may affect longer be used productively in -developmentalresearch, ,_- the sequence and pace of life-cycle transitions. In the whether on children or adults (McCall, 1979; .Schaie, case of achievement behaviors, especially for nien, the 1979). Instell,, the last decade has producedan approach drift of change in social institutions over the last several to the testing of a' vpiety of primary mental abilities ,decades has been to lessen the possibility of continuity throughout the life .cycle. These abilities,e.g., spatial in the developmental differences, among individualsas relations, visualization, verbal comprehension, symbol they age from childhood through adulthood. . - manipulation, Zreeich identified byone or more specific A second .arena of 'research psychometric intelli- tests and can be Seored individually. In turn, theprimary genceillustrates how' the adoption of the life-span mental abilities-.---ranging 'from 10 to 120 in number orientation has led to metathebretical debates,reconcep- have been found to cluster into a sfnall set of higher- tualization, and the search for new methodologies in order factors or latent mental attributes thatare reflected. 24 4 634SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK of adult in the primary abilities. According to Onewidely ac- They suggest that conventional role sequences sharpening cepted model, the most central of these latent attributes life provide opportunities for practicing and intelli- are fluid and crystallizedintelligence (Harn,sand Cattell, the. primary abilitie& subsumed by crystallized 1967). Crystallized intelligence refers to the universeof gence. The research by Melvin Kohn andassociates abilities embodied in the symbolic culture of a society; (Kohn and Schooler, 1978)-linking the substantive com- it is knowledge and mental skills that a communitydeems plexity of men's work, their Sequences of occupations' valuable and essential for its Maintenanceand that are and job-related tasks, and their profiles of intellectual instilled through- childrearing and adult socializationin flexpilityillustrates one such long-term arena for learn- social roles. In broad teens, crystallized intelligence can inggicIpractice. However, there may be fewer and fewer be identified in abilities to decode a Written or oral mes- 'contexts within which the incidentaLlearning of fluid sage, to identify the main ideas; and toretain them for intelligence takes place in adulthood. And, the accu- 'a later use; it underlies the :capacity to cope withsocial mulation of brain damage and''neural dysfunctiOn as situations according to the'conventiokal mores of a com- function of age (the sheer passage of time and increased have a greater munity; it can be seen in the ability to balance acheck- exposure to,;the risk of injury) seem to book or to figure out an IRS Form 1040 each April. impact on fluid, than on crystallized intelligence. Thus, Fluid intelligence is the ability complex,that develops for example, between the ages of 20 and 60 there is 50% earliest. In -Fontrast to crystallized intelligence, fluidin:: about a 12% loss in brain weight, a decrease)* to telligence deals with reasoning about novel or unfamiliar in, some areas of the brain) in total-number of 'neurons, material. Because fltnd intelligence is seen as thede- an increase in neuro-fibrillary tangles andplaques, an Velopmentat basis for all intelligence, it involves many increase in the width of brain fissures, and so on. Horn The empirical.eirldence in- of the same capacities as crystallizedintelligenceabil- and Donaldson conclude: ities to, abstract, to solve problems logically, and to cope dicates that the abilities of Of (fluid intelligence)are more the intelligently with everyday life. Yet it is distinguishable permanently affected by loss of brain tissue than are by,:a unique set of manifestations that are not easily abilities of Ge, but it is by no means clear why this should g!tau ht by parents or the schools orlearnedon he job. be true",(Horn and Donaldson, 1980:480). Rather they are thought to arise through incid ntal. or One reason may be that the knowledge structure of casual learning and through other influences,thataffect crystallized intelligence is "overdetermined." That it seems to be based on neural structures that contain a , the physiology and neural processes associated'w th in- tellectual development (Horn and Donaldson 80:461). higher order of redundancy than fluidintelligence; there- Fluid intelligence involves capacities that able the per-. fore, loss of brain tissue niay not be as crucial to the maintepance of full capacity. Horn and Donaldson's re- son to reason with, abstract(versus real- ife, concrete) symbols, to invent and use alternative (o tional, uncon- view of neural physiological research .Stiggests a basis appears that crystal- ventional) classifications or problem-solving strategies,.for this differential redundancy. It lized intelligence may depend upon biochemicalstruc- or to visualize novel Orhypothetiyal events. Both fluid and crystallized inAligence themselves are tures, or biochemical alterations of neuronal synapses, organized hierarchically as reflections of general int that seem to be the meehanism wherebyinformation is stored diffusely throughout the brain. Fluid intelligence, ligence, Which is the-concept that'global IQ scoresind . What' developmental research missed as it stu iedthe by contrast, appears to depend upon electrical networks age trajectories of global IQ scores(e.g., Bloom, 1964) of firing neurons. Loss of even a small nuclber of neurons was that fluid and crystallizedintelligence apparently would impair-the action of an entire network; whereas have different developmental profiles. Forexample, a similar loss wouldhive less effect on the diffuse bio- chemical structure. This speculation, tentative as it is, `Horn and Donaldson/(1980; see alsoSchaie, 1979) re- lose interdependence that has evolved' view a corpus of age-related psychotnetrjc researchof illustrates the bioneural and Psyllo- the 'last detade that concurs in that fluidintelligence over the last decade between the declines after ages 25 to 30, whereasthe abilities as- logical sciences. It suggests that cross-disciplinary ex- sOciated-with crystallized intelligence suffer no decline change among biologists, psychologists, sociologists, or.improve during adulthood (i.e., up to theretirement and other behavioral scientists will be essential in moving into years). 'While mental-faculties tied to.memoeyalso de- the life7span orientation to intellectual development concrete and theoretically focused research programs. cline as a function of chronological age and do so con- 4.4 currently with fluid intelligence, there is no apparent Horn and Donaldso n's review concludes that age- causal connection between the twolosses in the research. related' declin* in the capacities of fluid intelligence are organize' they report. The explanation that Horn and Donaldson linked to deteriorations in ability to encode (to provide-is a multicausal andhighly speculative one, in- rather than to retrieve) information-and t*maintain close to con- asmuckas the cohort - sequential; longitudinal research attention to the details of complex problems qr base that wo`uld be iequired to sort out ahtecedent- ceptualize nonstandard rela 'onshipS. Presumably these age-related, biologically base& declines in intellectual consequent relathinships has yet been assembled. 245 -.; ."1.A Life-Span Perspective635 skill lie at the 1;6 of natalistic obsen ations by Lehman ikprimary mental abilities at three occasionsover a 14- -.. (1,964) and others (re ed in Horn and Donaldson, -year' period (1956, 1963, and 1970).' He 'was able to 1980.494) For example, poets are said to peak at age analyze age-related (ontogenetie) changes by comparing 25-29; psyCbologists, at age 35-39: rate of output of change scores for persons at comparable, ages (e.-gj, 35 .. chemists is highest at age 30-34 and drops by 40-44, to 41;,42 to 49), departures from a common ontogenetie peak years for largest annual earnings in most fields. is pattern across the 7 groups were interpreted as cohort age 50-55 (Lehman's unproven estimates have been differences. In general, Schaie found that cohort varia- challenged by Riley et al., 1968.) tion was greater than the magnitudes of change in ability that could be attributed to ontogeny (aging) within co- The Li e-Span Critique of Developmental Conclusions horts. Cohort differences were not uniform across- the ornan Donaldson reflect an orientation to intellectual component primary abilities associated with fluid and development that spans the adult years into old age and crystallized intelligence. Thus, the work challenges the highlights the multidimensional, multidirectional, mul- assumption of-a universal normative pattern of intellec: ticausal features of development. However their orient tual performance across the' life span, it offers contra- tation has been challenged by Schaie, Baltes, and others dictory evidence for the assumption of inevitable and as anachronistic in het of mounting life-span research uniform declines in fluid intelligence at advanced ages. (Bakes and Schaie, 7976;. Schaie and Baltes,1977; (Obversely, it contradicts the generalization that allper- Willis and Baltes, 1980) Further, life-span researchsug- sons necessarily enjoy stability, or improvement in their gests that the predication of "a biologically inexorable capacities for manifesting crystallized intelligence.) deterioration of fluid intelligence and related capacities'-....-__There are, of course, many, reasons whysuccessive in all individuals ih all cohorts does not square with new birth cohorts might display...different capacities for evidence 'about the effects of intervention.among the growth and decline across the vanous components of (those over age 65). id nd crystallized, intelligence. Uhlenberg (1979) has e critique refers to the tendency of Horn and Don- described the massive demographic haugesunderway aldson to view intellectual development in terms of the in the educational, health, And Experiential charactens,- normative' biological growth model that guided child tics of the elderly population in the U.S. It is rrot at all development and gerontological research' througohout unlikely, given the overall improvements in levels of most of this centurYIt finds, fault with the emphasis on education, health, and economic secunty, that the pattern normative, dei'elopmental functions that fail to give at- ofuture research such as Schaies will show smaller' tention to the variability of -abilities and performances. declines in mental ability`at every age in,successively Such variabilities around the Horn-Donaldson norms more recent birth eohorts. OpPortuniiies for,the learning manifest not only changes within the individual apd his aud practice'of 'abilities associated with crystallized in- context over time, but also bio=histoncal changes across telligence and for the incidental learning and practice of samples of different birth cohorts and sociocultural dif- those linked to fluid intelligence have improved and may' ferences among individuals within a given cohort. continue to do so. Improved healthcare and protection fromzarcls and injuries may foster greater biophysical, Plasticity and' Variability in Intellectual Functioning ' neu al capacity avadvanced ages. On the other hand, the _Schaie, Baltes dud their colleagues at the frontier of life- c e of s c. olutioilary changes js not iie'itabte, Van research on intellectual development emphasize the and the neurons anbiochemistry of the brain mbe plasticityof intellectual functioning over a person's life. subject to a genetic, evolutionary program for e entual that is, the apparent capacity for marked increases or dysfunction and death (e.g., Strehler, 1977). Despite the 'improvements in mental abilities and performanceg, as inevitability of death and dysfunction at some chrono- well as for deteriorations, in both fluid and crystallized logical age, the trajectory of experience in reaching this intelligence until death. They arso emphasize t at not all point is varied for persons within cohorts and across individuals age intellectually in the kme way ariabay them as well. . coo acrosswersons',, age profiles of fluid and cstallized in- Another program of research on psychometric intel- telligence is substantial,, especially across cohorts and ligence, guided by Baltes and colleagues, has offered across persqns with different life histories. Evidence for suggestive evidence about the plasticity of fluid ability these conclusions'is tentative (e.g., 'tom and Donaldson, in aged persons (e.g., Baltes andWillis, in press; Willis 1980), but it is becoming firmer as longitudinal cohort- and Baltes, 1980; see also Denny; 1979; Labouvie-Viet;ir sequential studies and intervention-demonstration ex- 1976; and Sterns and Sanders, 1980). Baltes and col- periments are condicted with these ideas as guiding leagues have addressed jhemsel es to the underlying hypotheses. potential or reserve for perfo 1 varies tell F6t. example, Schaie (1979) has stud ied a large number tasks across the life cycle. They reason that mental*. of Persons between the ages of24 and 80. Dividing the ities must be differentiated from measured performances sample into seven birth cohorts, he assessed the chalige of tasks, that call for theapplication of ability. On any -it; « 246. P N. 636SSRC FIVEYEAR OUTLOOK reinforcement, and focused one occasion, factors such as motivation,fatigue', stress a 70-year old), motivation, the and the-like may alter performance and introduce situ- attention are some of thaesituational factors that have ational "error" into the estimation of an individual's capacity to mediate the significance of biologicalchanges ability. Similarly, across the life span, situational con- for the behaviors of the aged. The Baltes grouphas tAtstrakones of experienceinfluence perform; implied thatthe elderly have traditionally lived in a con- intraindividual 'text of ill-defined social rolesperhaps, more correctly, ance and add to the intenridividual and 7 variability at intellectual tasks. Thus, what the analyst a role-less phase of life (Rosoiv,1976). Lacking practice observes is some interaction between the "true" or latent or opportunities to learn and sharpenskills, abilities fall' ability and the environmental context. But what about into disuse and deteriorate. (The same argumentoften ability in some optimum environment, one that is struc- is made by human capital economists in interpretinkthe tured to reveal the full latent potential or reserve of abil-. lesser economic returns to investments ineducation or ity? In a series of intervention or optimization demon- prior job experience by middle-aged women vis-a-vis strations with persons between ages 60 and 80, the men with more continuouswork histories; e.g., Polar Baltes-Willis group has found substantial reserve for im- check, 1979). This interpretation implies thatintellectual provement in performances at tasks that tap fluidintel- performance, and perhaps other abilities and capacities ligence. Not only do old persons do better at the labo- as well, are underlain by a latentreserve or potential that ratory tasks, but the experimental treatments seem to is only partially tapped by conventional socialenviron- encourage wineralizvon to other tasks (tests) as well ments. Whereas children and adolescentsmanifest a (see-Baltes Wd.Baltes, 1980; and Labouvie -Vief, 1976; greater proportion of this latent reserve, owing to the development for reviews). orientations for achievement and personal and the Baltes and colleagues have reasonedthat psychometric that are built into institutions such as the school tests are performances that reflect bath competenceand economy, the reserves of theelderly are less fully utilized Willis, forthcoming). . situationalinfluences such as fatigue, motivation, and or revealed (e.g Baltes and interest. Insofar as some primary abilities associated with Toward an Integrated Interpretation fluid intelligence decline in some older persons, might for in- these changes betied to the situational factors rather than This speculation may ultimately, provide a basis with to ability per se? In aseries ofexperiments, the Baltes tegrating the results of the optimization experiments dete- group hps attemptgd,to optimize theperformances of fhe Work of Horn and others that posits eventual average) persons aged 60 to 80 who were drawn from auniversity rioration of function as a normative (typical or latent community. feature in the aged. The ontogenetic course of One group was tested at repeated intervals in order to reserve may in fact peak in early ormiddle adulthood give implicit, familiarity with the testing situation and and decline thereafter because of genetic andother bi- and the tests theRselves. In eight one-hour sessillis, another ological influences. But since this is t hypothetical group was given explicit and specific training(in the as yet unobserveddevelopmental limit, more age- problem solving skills that. the tests were designed to comparative optimization research will be required to measure. Still another group was tested only at the very establish its factual basis. On the other hand, themanifest .40101011. end of the experimegal series and represented a post- or actual reserve seems to bemalleable in ways that c.111 test control. With the exceptionc?Ihis.last group, the into question the inevitable and universal correspondence latent others, were tested following the training,period at one between its developmental course and the limits of week, one month, and six month intervals. Sheer fa- reserves. In more optimalenvironments, the trajectory miliarity with test taking seemed to improve the scdres of manifest capacities may continue to riseinto old age, ign the fist group. But markedmprovements in perform- long after the latent capacities have peftked. contin- rances were apparent in the group given explicit training Speculations of this character are prompting of senescent at the rules and logic,oYtests measuringprimary abilities uing life-span research on the conditions and associated Nth fluid;intelligence:Eveirsix-months-after declines in mental capacity and in independence (e.g., Rodin, 1980; the actual tralninetad ended, the partidipants continued mastery behaviors among the elderly this mirk has to improve at a rate that exceeded the gains in the"fa- M. Baltes and Barton, in press). Out of insights that will con- miliarity" group. And the former also were able to gen- come a series of methodological One obvious eralize their new sjdlls to tests of fluid intelligence that tinue to reorient developmental research: that had not been the focus of specific training. In'relate illustration is the use of optimization interventions which pehav- work, nests of response speed atop showed the latent Manipulate the situational contexts within is the de- capacity for small modification. iors and abilities become manifest. Another These studies .have suggested thaf losses in neural velopment of nel7 tests and instruments for the assess- full span of life. Schaie functioning that the erly suffer may not always impair ment of competencies across the psychometric intellectual perfoimance. ctice at new tasks (or at old and other gerontologists have argued that differential ones that have ceased to be salient, test taking for instrumentsnstruments that were designed to measure 4 S Life -SpanPerspective637 L I abilities in children and adolescents are poorly con- highlights fu h ential for the emergence of a new structed fOPuse among persons in the later periods of life discipline deali g with life-span behavior and (Schaie, 1979). That Is, the achievement-related context; development. within which assessments of mastery and competence derive their originating purposei.e., to predict success in school and in theearly work careerare largely with THE SOCIAL HISTORY OF FAMILY RELATIONS AND °out direct counterparts in the last third of life. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Schaie (1977/78; see also 'Labouvie-Vief, 1980) has Over the last decade, social historians, family sociolo- suggested a life-span theory of intellectual development gists, developmental psychologists, and demographers in which the definition of intelligence changes according have begun to study the family through the themes And to the changes in developmental tasks throughout the propositions of a life-span orientation (e.g., Vinovskis, successive phases of a typical life course. Fully recog- 1977; Hill and Mattessich,1979; Hareven, 1978). In- nizing that cohort and individual differences in life events creasingly, an interdisciplinary approach under thiscore may limit the, usefulness of a normative approach to paradigm has become the explicit basis on whichre- conceptual definitions, Schaie then suggests that new search problems about the family are defined, variables tests of primary abilities be constructed to tap these var- are selected, and analyses are designed (Elder, forth- ious dimensions Further, he and others have begun to coming). This trend has been facilitated by a willingness explore the likelihood that the structure of psychometric of the disciplines to expand the frameworks of analysis intelligence also changes across the life span, For ex- to include variables normally found outside their separate ample, the primary abilities that cluster into fluid and domains, and by the accumulation of common data bases crystallized intelligence may undergo a transformation in machine-readable form that permit integrated analysis and realignment over time in response to both biological (e.g., Thernstrom, 1965; Hershberg, 1981; Hareven, changes and sociohistorical ones. Results from early 1978). As a result,. sociological understandings of the work seem to bear out this hypothesis and to imply that contemporary American family are being transfornied aging entails qualitative as well as quantitative change through revisions of stereotypes about the historical fam- in intellectual ability (e.g., Baltes; et al., 1980). Appli- ily; sociological and demographic insights into family ion of structural equation modeling and the use of process are revolutionizing historical research; and the ne omputer algorithms for confirmatory factor anal- psychology of ontogenetic change is addinga bio- .ysis (e.g., Jareskog and Serbom, 1979) have aided this behavioral, dimension to the analysis of familyprocess. line of inquiry. ° Perhaps because it includes so many of the multidimen- Life-span interpretations of intellectual develOpment sional, multilevel issues in the analysis of the individual have animatea conceptual and methodological discus- change-social-change dialectic, the study of familyre- sionsiin psychology and. fueled theoretical debates. lations and human development may provide the intel- While it is far too early to predict whether this dissensus lectual context for any eventual emergence of a new life- and scholarly dialectic will catalyze a new behavioral span discipline. science around life-span issues and methods, the last decade has witnessed a diffusion of new perspectives Reinterpreting the Historical Family and methods into developmental psychology. Estab- Elder (forthcoming) has observed that as littleas a decade lished concepts and modes of research design arc being ago students of the American family were convinced of questioned, and there isa reaching out to related disci- two generalizations about the historical trends in family plines for help in addressing old questions in new ways. life between the 19th and 20th centuries:that domestic These studies and developments also have brought ac- households had become increasingly more nuclear (com- ademic research on psychometric intelligence into a posed of two parents and their children), and that they closet relationship with practical or policy-related issues had t many of their economic and human develop- about aging and the elderlyissues like retir6fierit,..so- menta functions. Research in Britain by Laslett (1972), cial security, independent living and long-term care. in Austria by Berkner (1972), and.in North America by A third arena of current researchthe.social history Thernstrom (1965), E.A. Wrigley (1972), and others is of family relations and human development represents contraverting these assertions. This work is revolution- a convergence of attention on 0.ingle set of analytical izing our perspective on "the" historical family, and, issues under guidance of common concepts. Thisex- by extension, recasting our appreciation for continuities ample illustrates flow the life-span approach is helping and changes in the "embattled" contemporary family., io organize and redirect a program of inquiry in social These radical shifts in understanding and in research history and also across several disciplines. The renais-* approaches have been sparked by several developments. since of multidisciplinary interest in the historical fam- One is that manuscript censuses for the late 19th century ily, social relationships within the contemporary family, have become available as research tools; this has enabled and.the role of the family as a context of socialization quantitative historians, demographers, sociologists and 638 SSRC FIVE-YEAROUTLOOK others to synthesize the records of household members the Morgan, et al., studies, the chief factors in account- over successive enumerations and tolink these to ad- ing for the over-time economic status of households were ministrative and other secondary sources of information those connected to shifts in their relative sizes and dorn- abotft employment, education, and income within the p6sitions: divorce and separation, additional children, communities of residence. But primarily, it has been the split-offs of sub-household units (Duncan and Morgan, efforts to synthesize processes of, famik dynamics 1976). ("family time") withhistorical change ("historical time")within the framework of a life-course orientation Dynamic and Behavioral Approaches ("developmental time") that is enabling researchers to begin the difficult analytical tasks of rewriting history The major change, of orientation occurring in the study and of restating the status of contemporary family life of the historical family is the shift from an essentially within that historical pattern. Becausethese revisions are static, structural perspective to a dynamic, behavioral still in their early stages and the data are still being' one (Hareven, .1977; Elder; forthcoming).Typological , ,assembled, only the general thrust of the work and pre- thinking about the ."preindustrial," "industrial," and liminary findings can be reported. "post-industrial" families, families whose internal Families in the 19th century are not more easily char- structure was thought to mirror faithfully the structural acterized than their counterparts today, our stereotypes transformations of the embedding economy and society notwithstanding. While on average the "historical fam- (e.g., Smelser, 1959), has been replaced by transactional ily" may have been larger than most contemporary ones, approaches in which the family is a dynamic unitover household Size and composition were highly variable. the course of its life, changing its structural features in For example, 19th century households in North America response to social change and to the life course orde- appear to have adjusted their sizein relation to chang- velopmental trajectories of its several members over ing economic fortunes. In Canadian mercantile centers chronological time. young adults of working class originoften spent a period For example, MichaelAndern (1971) and Tamara outside their parental homes as codgers in otherhouse- Hareven (1981) use longitudinal, historical data on the individuals within families and households to portray the 4 holds, as domestics, or as employees in firms at some distance from their familes (Katz, 1975). In a sense active role of the family unit in the course bf industrial-. they were part of the parental household economy, be- ization in both Britain and the American northeast. Dur- cause they frequently shared some orall of their income ing the early stages of industrialization, especially in the with that unit and returned there after a period away. textile towns of the American northeast, the economic Elsewhere, the same families that dispersed employable survival of the family was well served by a collective members also took in boarders and lodgers as co- strategy or family plan that sent women to work,with- residents as needs -arose (e.g., Modell andHareven, drew children from school,.or aided the migration and 1973), either because of Secular /business cycles or be- job placement of kin as dictated by the changing fortunes "in- cause Of life-cycle changes withinthe household (e.g., of the family. This interplay of "family time" and dustrial time" (Hareven, 1975; 1977) gradually gave w idow h ood):414'. . Thus, families responded to industrialization and the way, under conditions of risingaffluence and declining urbanization of the 19th century economy by, adjusting family size, to a 20th century pattern of individual life their household economic bases in two ways that affected plans that could be pursued without jeopardizing the their size and composition: by expanding thp sourcesof survival of others. During the 20th century, the earlier income and by limiting the demand on these sources patterns of contingency between a person'stransition within the household. At some tittles, households were into full adulthood (including the assumption of inde- « large and "extended," at other times, "stem," and at pendent economic roles and the making of a new family still others, "nuclear." There was great variation over unit) and his obligation to be responsive to the episodes time and across households in the strategies thatfamilies of economic misfOitines in the-Tental household were used to respond to secular (historical) change and to life- weakened (Modell et al., 1976). Thus, the conjunction cycle transitions and events of their constituent -co- of "family time" and "industrial time" was transformed residents. In these respects, 19th century families were into one between "individual time", and "industrial no different from familiestoday; see, for example, the time." The tempo of the individual life course was or- only on-going longitudinal study of American house- ganized by a new set of institutions outside thefamily that sequenced the roles into and through which persons ,holds, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (e.g.,Dun- industrial can and Morgan, 1979). Bycomparison, contemporary passed. Age-graded schools, occupational and honseholds adjust their labor supply through the life careers, and promotional schemes byseniority are ex- cycle and secular pattern of female labor forcepartici- amples of the emergence of temporizing influences that pation, family size (birth control), and childspacing. In riot only affected the pace of an individual's life but 24 9 . . Life-Span Perspective639 generaliftd across individuals to form' age-gradednor- the modern family and its relation to the political.econ- mative events as cohort experiences. omy, if only because Alai criticism,of contemporary In this latter respect, the behavioral approach to the institutions is predicated on apparently 'false historical 19th century family as both the receiver of historical assumptions that only now are coming to light. influences and an active agent in the-course of historical change parallels the emergence of "modern home eco- History and tht Changing View of Modern Families nomics' as an orientation to the study df dr contem- Dynamic, behavioral thinking about the inter-connection porary family (e.g., Becker, .190). Studies of invest- of social change, individual change, and change in fam- ments in childrearing, in the labor supply of mothers, ily structure and process is challengingmore than r and in schooling (e.g., Kaestle and.Vinovskis, 1979) in stereotypes of the historical family. It is revolution'ng 19th century America cast the family as a set of decision- the study of the modern family as well (Elder, f rth- makers optimizing their utilities through production, re- coming). For decades sociologists and demogra hers production, consumption, and resource 'allocation in a have-used the concept of the vfainily cycle" to d cnbe changing social and economic environment. What is and analyze regular changes in the social relati nships striking about the new family history and the new home and orientations among family members asa unction economics (really a version of human capital theory ap- of temporal shifts:in family Composition (Lo mis and plied to the production and consumption time allocations Hamilton,. 1936; Glick, 1947, 1977; Glicka d Parke, associated with domestic vs. market labor decisions and 1965; Duvall, 1971). That is, the family aa social childrearing) is that both behavioral theories have such aggregate was thought to assume certain universal be- underdeveloped conceptions of human onfogeny. Per- . havioral features as a conrsequence of its structuralprop- haps this weakness, or lesser theoretical development, erties and transformations of them. For example, Hill' is understandable in 'the reconstructions of 19th century and Mattessich define "family development"as behavior, because of the absence of appropriate data. In /- the case of human capital theories of contemporary do- the process of progressive structural differentiation mestic economies, however, this conceptual shortfall is and transformation over the family's history, . .. the active acquisition and selective discarding of a challenge' for the future. In this regard, it seems es- roles by incumbents-of family positions as they seek sential that eco omists become a more central part of the to meet the changing functional requisites for sur- multidiscipliry discussions of life-span behavioral vival and as they adapt to recurring life stressesas processes. ongitudinal data on individuals within a family system (1980:174). household a gregates, such as those being collected by Historically, the "family history" to which Hill and the economist, Morgan, are also indispensable to this Mattessich refer was conceived as a series of sequential, endeavor. static, age-graded types of family "structures": for ex- Life-span, behavioral approaches to the study of his- ample, marriage and the dyad, birth of the first child and torical families responding to and shaping the course of the triad, youngest child leaves home and the empty nest, industrialization are reshaping current debate's about the retirement and ultimate dissolution of the marriage_ `tbcial functions _pf schooling and family in the political through death of one spouse. Demographic regularities economy. New data from manuscript censuses and re- in ages at marriage and ih child spacing have provided constructed life histories challenge the social criticism the age-graded character to the family cycle, sinee the of "radical economists" and neo-Marxian sociologists stages or phases of family life (structure) that it distin- that the schools in the 19th century were used by capi- guishes are predicated on markers of "family time" such talists to control and shape working class and immigrant as age of oldest or youngest child, age at retirement, age behaviors into forms that were useful to entrepreneurs at death of spouse. (e.g., BOwles and Gintis, 1976; compare Kaestle and Because of the life-span orientations, family research- Vinovskis, 1980). By contrast, the picture ofschool en- ers now recognize that the concept of the family cycle rollment and its relationship to the economic activities has been ahistorical, static, culture-bound, and unduly of families and the life courses of individuals is becoming focused on the impact of childitti`on the parental rela- much more'complex in new historical research. Studies, tionship. To be sure, the concept has aided the analysis show, for example, that school enrollment of older chil- of longitudinal change in behavior, but it was based on dren was common prior to the middle and late I9th typological thinking, and oh assumptions about the prev- centur.Nd the spread of industrialization in America alence of marriage and thiptuclear family and of the (e.g., Kaestle and Vinovskis, 1980). It addition, many durability of marriages throughout a lifetime. Glick and of the "modem" attributes of the family (e.g., "com- 'Nofton (1977) project that among contemporary young panionate" social relationships) also may have predated marriages, forty percent will end in divorce, Of those their alleged "cause" (Wrigley, 1977). Thu?, historical, who become divorced, between three-quarters and five- life-span research is forcing a revision of thinking about sixths will remarry and remain in that relationship until .7 250 640' SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK th at suffered large the death of the spouse (Glick, 1977). Together with the Elder observedmen from households greater stability of marriages in older birthcohorts, to- economic lossesirrespective of social classto voice day's marital and remarital patterns -attest to the prefer- concerns for security and to valuefinancial conservatism. ability of married life, for about eighty-four percent of But these attitudes and related behaviors were much less all families in 1975 were husband-wife families(Glick, salient kir riven with stable work histories and marriages, 1977). At the same tinke, the recycling of adult's through demonstrating the moderating influences of proximate marital relationships and the accumulation of children life events among men of equally deprived depression exposed to divorce and either long periods of single- backgrounds. Neither were all men of either cohort parent family lifsor second or multiple familieshave equally affected by the depression. For example, some increased markedly over recent decades. Only 67 percent lived in families that lost =relatively little; some had fa- of all children under 18 live with their ownonce-married thers whose sudden decline in earning power altered the - the strength parents (Glick and Norton, 1977). Inthg .context, the pattern of father vs. mother dominance and static typological model of the family life cycle has little of the father as a role model for his son. Others came scientific utility. from households where creative coping with distress and Hill and Mattessich's definition of family development collective sharing of new responsibilities were Sources is qe heuristic effort to revise the study of the modern of family solidarity. In each of these particular instances family that incorporates the elements of a life-span ori- of differential Joss and of family response, Elder found entation and is flexible enough to apply across the his- different manifestations df the depressionmanifesta- toncal experiences of different birth and maritalcohor*tions in anxieties and mental health and in values for (see Clausen, 1972/Spanier and Glick, ND). The newer conservatism or risk-taking. apprpach views the family as a constellation of individ- One instructive feature of Elder's long-term program demon- uals' life courses in some mutually contingent relation- of research from a life-span perspective is his .ship and in the context of evolving hislorical circum- stration of the importance of cumulative life history as of the depres- stances. The pertinence of research on familylife during a tool in analysis of differential outcomes the industrial revolution for the conception of the modern sion. To be sure, he wasable to document different manifestations of the depression in the pre-adult lives of -=)-family is that historical circumstances are themselves the outcome of the interplay of individualdevelopmental the Bay Area residents and in the interaction between processes, of farhily or collective responses tothe his- developmental age and the onset of economic hardship. devel- torical moment, and the opportunities and constraintsof In addition, however, Elder emphasized that the historical events and contemporary iJitions. opmental consequences of these-variable impacts of the Glen H. Elder, Jr.'s descriptionFlamilies in, the depression were, even more varied in adulthood. For ex- Great Depression illustrates this. Elder (1974;'1978; ample, adolescents whose family's relations were heav- earning 1980) has conducted social psychological research on ily strained by the father's loss of substantial the reciprocal relationships between historical and per- capacity and related esteem, and whose mothers,,often sonality changes using two studies of San FranciscoBay, assumed a position of dominance, frequently suffered in area children, born in the 1920s, asthey have grown anxieties and doubts about personal competence. Yet move away into adulthood. His work illustrates the "cohort sequen- those instances where. the son was able to tial" method of longitudinal research, for it contrasts the from the parental 'household rather quickly, as was the life courses and personalities of individuals within two case for many of the Oakland boyswho were mobilized in birth cohorts as they have aged. In eachcohort, Elder into WWII, long-terni effects of these experiences explores the differential impacts of relative economic youth were offset by fresh starts in new settings:Others, deprivation associated with the Great Depression and of who went to college, failed to evidence any career-related mitigating influences associated with military service in disadvantages, inasmuch as they were the most able to WWII, subsequent career security, and other adult life avail themselves .of the expanding economic opportun- events. One cohort, drawn from the city ofOakland, ities of the post-war boom and to establish the actuality were adolescents during the depths of the depression.4...of their competence. second cohort, from Berkeley, was borrt later and spent In summary, Elder's continuing longitudinal research its childhood in the depression, adolescence in the war within these two cohorts reflects many of the themes and years, and adulthood during the post-war economic propositions of the life-span orientation. For example, boom. Effects of sudden economic hardship and resulting developMental research must be historical and situational family distresses were more visible in the Berkeley co- insofar as historical events precipitate change in the hort, for whom a greater portion of childhood was lived course of lives,, both between and withincohorts. And, during hard times. The timing of this deprivation, rel- developing individuals are agents as well as receivers of ative to developmental age, placed the Berkeky children historical change. (By implication, Elder's work sug- at greater risk to cumulative disadvantage than the Oak-. gests that there may be only a limited set ofgenerali- land children. Across the decades of longitudinal data, zations that are ahistorical, i.e., as true in 1990 as in 5.. A 251 Life -Span Perspective -641 1980, that behavioral scientists can make. This may dif- logical, social, historical, and psychological,--shape and ferentMte the inherent nature of social science from that reform the personality within both normative and non- of the other kiences.),Jhe chief illustrative value of normative trajectories of experience may provide a nec- Elder's work may he in itA descnption of the ways in essary conceptual bridge between developmental re- which a single historical event interacts with the varie- search involving "family cycles" and research on the gated circumstances in persons' pasts and futures to in- socialization of children and their parents. . , crease the likelihood both of change across, the course of life and of individualized life trajectones of adults The Multidisciplinary Future .of Family Research from seemingly similar social and historical ongins.' 'Life-span research on the historical family and its func- tions as agent of socialization and of social change is Usefulness of the Family as a Unit of Analysis providing new oppertunities to reevaluate the modem Viewing families as co-residing individuals complij tes family. In some ways there appear to be greater historical the study of the family, for it forces the analys see continuities, especially in economic and demographic a family unit' as a potentially unique entity. Etch mdi- functioning, than hitherto appreciated. In other respects, vidualis at his or her point in personal developmental massive cohort and historical discontinuities are becom- time, the significance of which is cast in terms of a ing more apparent (e.g., Brim, 1980). Life-span research cumulative life history. The aggjegate co-residential unit on the family is inhele'ntly multidisciplinary because of can change in time because of dissolutions of mamages, its focus on individual change, social change, family remarriages, or other compositional changes that imply 'process, generational elations, and bioevolutionary a dynamic situational context for these individual life change. On a reduced scale of personality systems and courses and their combinatory outcomes. Then, too, social systems, it provides all the essential elements of there is the impact of sociohistoncal change that becomes the individual change-social change paradigm that un- manifest in potentially uniqiie ways. derlies the entire intellectual scopeif life-span devel- Sociological and economic research on cohort marital opment issues. As behavioral scientists carry forward the fertility and female labor force participation supports this scholarly momentum of the last decade, as economists perspective (e.g., Easterlin, 1980), as does Alice Rossi's work more closely on family-related processes with his- (1980) examination of how the hormonal and physical stonans, sociologists, and developmental psycholog(sts, changes (or differences in the degrees of biological the foundation for new disciplinary breakthroughs and change) in middle-aged parents of adolescents alter the multilevel theory-building may be prepared In any case, qualities of family 10 for both parents and children. both multidisciplinary and unidisciplinary social science Rossi's study is one (of the few by sociologists to in- appears to be most cumulative when there is a concrete corporate social and biological influences on human de- link between academic scholarship and practical prob- velopment and to recognize the dialectiCal dynamics of lems (e.g., House, 1977). Certainly the contemporary simultaneous change in children and their middle-aged family, in all its myriad forms and transformations, pro- parents. Socialization in families becomes a Iwo - vides that context. generation process that is continually underway. Whether the next decade of life-span research will-...PUBLIC,POLICY AND THE LIFE-SPAN continue to see the family as a useful unit of analytical APPROACH v distinction is now unclear. Incorporation of the life-span approach into family research raises the possibility that Life-span orientations in the social and behavioral sci- "family development" may prove to be nothing more ences have practical as well as academic significance. than the interactive combination of the individual de- This view orconstancies and changes in behavior and--' velopmental' trajectories of co-residents. Put another development across the. whole of life is debunking stere- way, one challenge of the new perspective for sociolo- otypes about the aged, adults, and adolescents and chil- gists and others who have traditionally used structural dren. It is questioning the longstanding assumption that features and "stages" of family development as analyt- age is a reliable predictor of behavior. It calls attention ical tools is to demonstrate that the aggiegate or structural to thevotiability across persons ..in the temporal course approach remains viable, given the increasing diversity and consequences of biological, psychological, social, (and recognition of it) of both individual patterns of and historical events. It emphasizes the malleability of development and the histories of individual families or personality and behavior in persons of all ages. And, it co- residential units. This challenge is not unlike the one undersco'res how changes in the societal and cultural before students of adult development who have tended contexts continually alter the situations in which suc- to use stage or phase models of personality change over cessive generations and cohorts live out their lives. Re- the life course (e.g., Gould, 1978, Levinson, 1978: Vail- search guided by this mode of tAinking is beginning to 'ant, 1978). Brim and Ryff s (1980) generic effort to accumulate a base of findings that ultimately might be identify and classify how varieties of life eventsbie- applied to social problems and public policy. Mean! S 4. 252 642 SRCFIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK while,, the life-span approach is altering the frameworks 1978; Clayton and Birren, 1980). Wisdom seems to in- within which issues of public concern are cast and volv-e a "mastery of (life's) situations that have restilted Its discussed. in emotional and cognitive.overload .. abalanced view of investment in self as well as inothers having moved from concerns with things to ideas and from ac: ALTERING THE FRAMEWORK OF AGE-RELATED POLICIES jions to meanings" (Birren, 1978). Wisdom has apparent Bernice Neugarten (1979) has suggested that research/importance for cross-generational relationships, and as on human development over the life span may move us such may bean evolving developmental characteristic toward an "age-irrelevant" society: a set of institutions in elderly populations of the future. that responds primarily to abilities and interests rather Another demographic fact whose implications for pub- than to age. Such a society would feature social welfare lic policy can be interpreted within a life-spaniersPec- and legal entitlements that are tied not to chronological live is the increasing size future elderly populations age but to individuals' preferences, needs, and capaci- relative to the sizes of theyounger contemporaries ties, it would also include appreciation of the potentials What these older persons can and want toclo.has im- for change and development in ourselves and others that portant implications for the costs of their health care, 'would not be diminished by age-based stereotypes. housing, and social security at the public expensean Neugarten and others who speculate about the coming expense borne largely by younger workers. One impli- of an age irrelevant society have pointed to recent and cation of the life-span approach is that such issues should important demographic shifts that may encourage such be discussed in terms of meeting the needs of specific saial changes. One is the rapid groWth in.the absolute persons, irrespective of. age. CategoricallytargeteW size of the elderly American population. Another is the sistance programs for the agedpresently designated as remarkable recomposition of its socioeconomic and age 65 Ar_ many, federal. programsmiy actuallydeny health-related characteristics, which is forcini us to rec- services to those most in need by dissipating theavailable ognize differences between the "young-old" and the public funds. Those most in need may include many of "old:old." Persons reaching age 65 in the 1980s are the very oldest citizens but also children and younger ever more educated, healthy, and long-living; and per- adults. In an "agerirrelevantsociety, need based on liaps more economically secure. Their cumulative life functional capacity rather than on age per se would be histories are less marked by the Great Depression and the'criterionfor public assistance (i.e., Neugarten, reflect the benefits ora generally sound economy and of 1979). The challenge that life-span thinking places be- per asive public health and medical careinthe post- fore the public forum is how limited capacities can be WWII years during which they spe eir entire adult- ,defined and optimized at all ages. But itis a double hood (Ublenberg, 1979). ,These fa?! imply that we challenge, since the life-span approach seeks to uncover should think of this and adjacent birth cohorts as qual- biological and environmental limitations as well as latent itatively different from the elderly who were their par- reserves for developmental change. It is just asfalse to entsthe generation born at the turn of the. century assume that each personcan heal or develop herself' whose adult lives were bisected by the Great Depression. without assistance froin others as it is to use age as Furthermore, it is among these recent older Americans basis for what we expect ourselves and others to be abre that optimizatioresearch shows apparent potentials for to'ido. Life-span social and behavioral research in the- performance tha we once assumed were not within the 1980s faces an exciting future insofar as it can assist in *). capacities of the e derly. Margaret Babes and colleagues discovering the developmental potentials of citizens and .have demonstrated, that residents in nursing homes-Can in defining an equitable basis for public assistance that. become more . functionally independent and healthier reflects functional need. when environments and staff-resident interaction pat- Life-span research also underscores the importance of terns are consciously designed to promote these behav- reexamining blic programs that are directed at age iOrs (see Babes and Baltes, 1980, for a review). Judith groups and ret 'nking their relationship tohuman de- Rodin (1980), in exploring the relationship between the velopment. 0 example is social security, for the ad- stresses engendered by the elderly's-residential and social equacy ofs funding depends-upon_eligibility.criteria_ settings and health, finds that instruction in practical and the relative size of contributing and claiming groups. problem-solving has enduring effects in improved mental Recognizing that many personsperhapseveitiker health and longevity. Research on psychometric intel- fractionsover.age 65 could remain productive eccOnom- ligence suggests that constructive environments, prac- ically if their unique capacities were optimally developed tice, and encouragement can...offset or reverse losses of and maintained,' legislators may raise the age of man- mental functions associated with biological senescence datory retirement. At the same time, the demographic (e.g., Baltes and Willis, 1981). Finally, we are discov- legacy of the "baby boom" and the stabilization of pop- . enng the developmental significance of "wisdom" as ulation change is a large proportion of middle'-aged a performance characteristic in manyelderly (Birren, Americans over the next decade. Promotional prospects 253 74;V:40- C 44% 1,6 S a Life-Span Perspective643 and incentives foi socioeconomic advancement could be Aside from career - related functions of education, a reduced, especially in the middle and later years. De- life-span approach to the ,design rof educational institu- pending on the growth rate of the economy, increased lions and facilities would recognize that )ife-long de- fractions of job-seeking women and adolescents and the velopmental pOtentials create a demand for multiple ed- cry fonequity in the distribution of work across minority ucational objectives. To be sure, continuing academjc ,groups may prompt more job sharing and episodic work and practical trainifig of older adults can be a good Eco- histories for all workers. Work histories punctuated by nomic investment, given the apparent latent capacities periods of schoOl attendance or other activities could of older persons who want to work to do so productively. become more common. Such hypothetieepossitfilities At the sane time, education and training that are focused illustrate another life-span theMe: individual'sre active on work-related goalfnay not be as relevant to as many agents in their own development. Public policies about older persons as to younger ones, given developmental employment and retirement, for example, can have a shifts in primary interests and motivations. But age' itself major impact on the context for and course of human is not the key factor. Depending on the momentary state developmentdevelopment that can be altered by leg- of the economy, one's "stage" of family development, islation from decade to decade and,legislation that is and a variety of other factors that bear little or no relation informed by increasing knowledge about the plasticity to age per se, one's interest in tbrmal education may be and variability of development. avocational. Life-span thinking influences the discussion of public The demographic consequence of current Amencan policy through its focus on long-term effects in a chang- fertility will -provide a less rapid replacement of older ing social and historical context. Many of our policies citizens by youthful ones. In that context, continuing about public education, for examples assume a close adult eduCation will become increasingly important. No connection between what is learned by the younghow thanat?, in past decades, the education of ones youth it is learned, student behaviors that facilitate learning becomes cPsolescent iig,the rapid pace of change in mod- aril acceptable performanceand adults' productivity ern sooi ety. But without a large supply of newly educated- - ,and achievement in the economy and society. These pol- youth to eplenish the stock of talent and information, icies assume both that education through adolescence is the nation will have to turn to its large supply of adults for life, and that the curriculum will nbt become (fuel- . and older persons.1%,ife-span social and behavioral sci- evant or out-dated before age ,55 or 65 when the next. ence should be challenged in the next decade to identify generation of productive workers and citizens replaces the Jimits and potentials of development aerossinfancy, the unproductive and obsolete generation., childhood, adolescence, adulthood, and old age that can A life-span orientation strips the validity from many . inform policies for mobilizing the talents of the nation ,of these assumptions. From the perspective of career and for achieving a high order of well-being inits preparation, the format education of V/orkers over the citizenry. text decades. may of necessity be continuoui throughout ..adulthood. Recently, the American work force has suf- fered periodically from over- and under-supplies of PROSPECTS professionals and skilled labor: Retraining of.adults for Life-span research in the social and behavioral sciences second or thifecareers could help mitigate the imbal-, is challenging old ways of thinking about the course of ances between supply and demand (by shortening the lag human development and of aging: Whether or not a new between the timing of need in the economy and the behavioral science of life-course processesa new dis- preparattns of adolescents and young adults whose own ciplineemerges over the next decade in response to career 'educati6nal choices often anticipate the wrong these developments, the promise of the next five years configuration of future demands). Demographic changes is for closer contact and collaboration among several in fertility that will decrease the relative supply of youth- existing disciplines, especially psychology, sociology, ful new workers may encourage career reeducation as history, economics, anthropology, and biology. Work- a more regular feature of adult life. Should older adults ing within the emerging common themes and proposi- return to the classrooms in significantly greatermmixr,s, tions of a life=sp_an_orientation, there likeLy_wilLbe a this will make it necessary to alter tbie designs of curricula productive division of labor. For example, psychologists to suit the social and psychological charasteristics of the may devote themselves most intensively to uncovering new students. Modes of learning, scheduling of ontogenetic, processes and behavioral sequences that classes, the most effective teaching techniques, the as- seem to have more general manifestations across histor- "Sumptions that textbooks make about levels of prepa- ical moments,. Sociologists and anthropologists may con- ,rationthese and other components of the educational centrate on understanding how, when, and where age , process that are now predicated on an adolescent and becomes a basis of social organizationhow events be- young adult student body that is highly age (and cohort) come more or less age-related or age-graded; when and homogeneous will require reassessment. how a society becomes "age-irrelevant." Economiits ..f 254, O 644 SSRC FIVE -YEAR OUTLOOK and historians may seek an understanding of historical. their life-time are essential for. life-span research. ter- episodes and coliort cycles that both reflect and mold vention research and historical and cross-cultural s udies human development as a dynamic life-long process. must be undertaken in order to define and underst nd the Biologists may purstie cellular aging and the science of limits and potentials of the human condition asstinteracts neural processes as reflections of historical changes in with and transforms its context over time This.4 a com- species longevity and=cohort ggccession. What should prehensive research program, one involving t e collab- be different about the next five years is not that psy- oration of several disciplines and profiting frothe spe- cliologists will become histonans or that sociologists will cial skills and techniques associated with eh. It' calls be certified as biologists. Rather a conscious division of for a sustained temporal commitment fro these col- labor and the recognition of common perspective should leagues, for the organization and mainte amp of lon- yield at least more sophisticated and ecqlogically valid gitudinal, cohort-comparative projects are th demand- biology, sociology, psychology, and so on. ing and long-termed. Obversely, it requis a stable base realize the broad academic and practical potentials of *research fundingone that recogniz s both the ben- of the life-span onentation over the next decade will .efits of long-run programmatic effort/ and the need to require a new programmatic research agenda so that trust- reassess and update the base of knoledge routinely worthy generalizations can cumulate under the guidance It' has been suggested that the social sciences were of the new perspective. Insofar as one cohort potentially consolidated intellectually in the.S during WWII at ages or develops eaccording to its own unique historical a nrhe when they were challeng Ito face the practical and biological circumstances, scientists must bE able to needs of the nation at war (e.x.,ouse, 1977). That was compare the experiences of two or more cohorts. Rep- a period of cross-d(sciplillacooperation The emer- lications of studiesrepeating the same investigations gence of renewed interest imultidisciplinary scholar- with the sane or equivalent methodsmust become ship within the common themes of the life-span approach more common in order to monitor the course and effects is one sign that the social sciences again may be poised of historical and institutional change on development and to advance. Surely the practical challenges of the 1980s to assess the reciprocal influences of individual and social' that might focus this sense of new scholarlyN'isionand changes across successiveCZEirts. Longitudinal designs common pursuit are no less' substantial than those of the and the follow-up of panels.of cohort samples through 1940s. . NOTE Baltes. Paul B., and Bnm, 0.G.. Jreds. 1980 Life-Span Devel- opment and Behavior. Volume 3 New York AcademicPress I. Theauthor is grateful to the SociarScience Research Council and Baltes. Paul B.. Cornelius. S.WSpiro, A.. Ill. Nesselroade. 1 R , its Committee on Life-Course Perspectives on Middle and op Age for and Willis. 1980. Integration- vs. Differentiation of Fluid-Crys, their collegial suppOn and inteHectual stimulation throughout the prep- tallized Intelligence in Old Age. Developniental Psychology. 16.625- aration of this manuscnpt Particularly helpful guidance was provided 635: by three editors. Paul B Baltes, Orville G. Bnm, Jr , and Glen H Baltes. Paul B., Reese. H.. and Lipsitt, L. 1980 Life-Span Devel- Elder. Jr.. on behalf of the committee Lonnie Sherrod. Matilda Riley, opmental Psychology Annual Review oY Psychology. 31.65-110 David Kertzer. Mans Vinovskis, John Meyer. Aage SOrenser;. and Baltes, Paul B., and Schaie. K W.. eds. 1973 Life-Span Develop- Brewster Smith also proyided helpful insights and suggestions Katie mental Psychology. Personality and Socialization New York Ac- Knorowski and Vivien Shelanski helped to bnng the text and manu- . ademic Press.' script into final form with great craft and care Baltes, Paul B.. and Schaie. K. W . eds1976. On the Plasticity of Intelligence in Adulthood and Old Age: Where Horn and Donaldson Fail. American Psychologist 31:720-725. REFERENCES Baltes, Paul B. and Willis. Sherry."... 1981. Plasticity and Enhancement of Intellectual Functioning in Old Age- Penn State's Adult Devel- Anderson. 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Intelligence in Adulthood and Aging: Contemporary Issues. Pp. 260-272 in Poon, j.: ed., a ar .e' a "ea I f I) 41. a 4 . . i, 4 I6 p At. O 4 5Statistical Measurement of Social Change' 0 Alberi J. Reiss,Jr. SUMMARY United States is predicated on serving two main interests. Measures derive either froni the theories and models' Many major research and policy issues reqttirthe sta- about social change that are fonhulated by social sci- tistical measurement and analysis of socia trds. In the entist& or they derive from attempts to illuminate the United States, govemmen officials, ,bu,sinesimen, schol- problems and evaluate the policies and programs that are ars, and the larger public are askedlo address prgblems important to public or govemmentaFinterests. Consid- associated with patterns'in such areas as crime, theebiith ered togetherl these two criteria suggest, that the payoff rate, health care, residfntial change, and the like. The to the commitment of resources will be especially prom- accumulation of information_about social conditions as (sing when interests in explanation and in public policy . , well as advances in analytic techniques and concepts of converge. Three areas of inquiry in which the priorities change have gre4tly extended the ability of society to of government and social scientists intersect are the study itself, its past, and a range of possible, futures. measurement and analysis of the well-being of individ- This essay describes 'the .need for measuring social uals and groiips, social inequality, ancLindicators of sci- trendsilitstrates,the development of new concepts and ence and technology. lhe_need to monitor the assumptions on which projections If we are to understand social change and use that of futult conditions are based, and describes cohort hnal- understanding for policy and prediction, we %eed to dis- ysis, one of the powerful methods used to understand tinguish real changes from apparent changes. This ability the dynamics of social change: The chapter suggests can only be derived from an extendet period of obser- areas in which.moilels and measures pfshange are most vation of.&Ocial conditions and events; a continual col- promising and -describes how the oainization of the lecting of time series, and monitoring-of concepts, meas- national statistical system affects the way that we un- ures, and assumptions; and analytic tools that can , derstand.social trends in the United States. identify, dissect, and explain the components of social A central question addressed in this chapter is Mow we trends. are to decide which aspects of society to monitor and The statistical' measMment and analysis of social wheretrew--rtieasurement progra-ms and modelsare change depends on more than careful attention to dota,,. needed. The present body of social measurement in the measurement, and analysis. Our &opacity to understand , . 'tef 649 01, 6,4 C \ 650SSRC F1VE-YEAR OUTLOOK social trends rests heavily on public policies and on the Yet statistical data alone are insufficient. To deal with organization of research and development in social meas- the policy demands of a changing society, governments must have reliable data op recent social trends, measures -,.., urement. Among the factors that affect our abilityro observe and analyze changes in social conditions are the of the components of change, and ways to understand manner in which data areproluced, distribu nd and analyze the data. Without careful attention to all reported. Understanding social change and uiat three componentsdata, measurement, and analysis knowledge are impeded when information abOut social we may fail to recognize changes and trcrids., that are conditions is collected without regard to its ,use for mon- taking place or, alternatively, see change (or stability) itoring long-tern) trends or .with inadequate. attention to where.none exists. the cOmparability of measures across time or across dif- ferent ,gOvernmental jurisdictions. The chapter recom- mends the continuation of old measurement programs, THE NEED TO MEA RE SOCIAL TRENDS the replication of previous studies, and the accumulation of existing measures of social Conditions'. Mark Twain is credited With the remark, that everyone talks about weather but nobody ever does_anything,about_ it. Weathel-, he wrote, is "necessary to a narrative of INTRODUCTION , -- human experience....But ...it ought to be the'ablest Questions about social change often appear deceptively weather that can be had; not ignorant, poor quality, am- _simple.People, businesses, and governments ask if ateur weather. Weather is a literary speciality, and no neighborhoods are more or less safe from cnme than untrained hand can turn out a good article of it " Ob- they used to be. Administrators, parents, and employers servations about stability and change are as-fundamental want to know whether high school graduates are learning to our generation as observations of the weather were more or less than previousF generations. Organizations to Twain's. Yet despite the ihiportance of understanding concerned with inequality want. to know whether the ofiat is and not changing around us. we stand, at income differences between blacks and whites, and be- times, as helpless as Twain's. geneption before t ween Dien and women, have narrowed or expanded. I weather. Governments at all levels must deal continually with' Twain's caution that we need "the ablest weather that issues related to social changes. ^ can be liad" can also be applied to the study of Social Many major political issues are the consequences of trends, a subject that has attracted a growing audience continuing social trends or they stem from attempts to within thp- social science community in recent years manage what are believed to be trends. In the United (Bohnistedt; 1980). This approach represents a change States, . government officials, scholars, and, the larger ,0 of focus from a preoccupation with attempts tounder - public are asked to address problems associated with,stand society' as if it were static or timeless to a concern changes in such areas as the availability of trained em- for discerning and.measuring social change over time ployees, the quality of schools and housing, the extent It is precisely because social change is so pervasive and consequences of residential migratiOn and unem- that everyone is his own interpreter, validating, and mod- ployment, and the efficiency of delivering public ser- erating his own observations of social trends. But this vices. They also want to know Whether the rate of social familiarity does not guarantee accurate interpretation. change is accelerating or decreasing. Is the crime rate Common sense carr mislead us because it is forced to going up at an accelerating pace or is theinnef city "losing rely on incomplete evidence or partial explanations In population at-a faster rate each year? To address these addition, common sense "quickly accommodates to problemsto observe and analyze changes in these con- what it sees happening, and hence does not know what ditions and on their rates of changerequires the use of to be surprised by" (Keyfitz, 1980:62). Very often, the statjstical indicators. clues we receive about social phenomena disguise or Considerfor example, the needs for information and misrepresent what is actually occurring. Part of the utility analysis that the problems of energy will impose. How of the formal study of social trends lies in exposing the are we to monitor and assess changes in the sources of intuitive wrong, even if the-argument appears obvious supply and derhand, and in, the rate.oT depletion of energy to our accommodating perceptions. resources? How will energy changes affect population Regular observation and` escription often provide pic- migration, life styles, and standards of living? What are tures of social trends that differ markedly from appar- the consequences of different energy sources for the pn- ently reasonable interpretations based on a portion of the vironment, for the Cities, and for social and recreational needed information. Two examples will help to illustrate needs? Statistical data are needed to assess the availa- how social science analysis can challenge common in- Huy, of and demand for alternative sources of energy ferences d reveal mcsperceptidns: the first concerns and the probable consequences of different mixes of their fears about i asing marital instability attributed to a _uses (Unseld, Morrison, Sills, and Wolf,1979): perceived rapid escalation of divorce rates; the-'sealtid Measurement of SocialChange651 example pertains to an appqrent lack of progress in re- represents the continuation of a trend which has been ducing income differences between whites and bladics. going on atleast since the Civil War (Preston and McDonald, 1979). Figure 1 -shows a steady increase in the divWce rate since 1870, with majorbut tempo- MARITAL INSTABILITY rarydeviations from tills gradUally nsing trend. One The effect of major social changes on the sti-ucture and of these departures from this trend affects our conclu- functions of the American familj, has received consid- sions about recent changes in the divorce rate. After the erable attention in both the popular press and scholarly rapid increase following Wolild War II, the divorce rate'4S publications. A central issue is whether the nuclear fam- fell below the level that could be expected on the basis ily is unstable or even disappearing, as a result of the of the long term trend. The marriages of couples who dramatic rise in the divorce rate during the last thirty produced "the baby boom" appeared to remain intact *years. Between 1960 and 1978, for example, the annual in far greater numbers than expected. The relatively low divorce ratethe number of divorces per -marriage rate of divorce continued until about 1960, w he,n it began more than doubled. a slow and then a dramatic increase that has remained Whai we'conclude about this increase, however, de- for more than a decade., Comparisons between the di- pends in part on the points of time we choose to compare. vorce rates of the 1970s and those of the late 1950s; An examination of the divorce rate in the United States therefore, contrast the highest divorce rates in recent over the past century corrects an impkvsion based on times with rates that run counter to long-term trends. divorce rates in the more'recent past. The recent increase Thus, receltincreases viewed solely in the light of this 1920-1978 Divorces per 1000 married women aged 15 over 1860-1920 Dtvorces per 1000 existing marriages 4. r I 1 1 I I I 1880 1900 . 1920 1960 1978 1870 1890 1919 1930 1970 Figure 1.Annual Divorce Rate for the United States, 1860-1978. a 1 Source Paul If Jacobsen. 1959 Table 42. U S National Center for Health StatisUcs. 19773 Table 4,1J S National Center for lical*th Sidiptio,, 1980 Table.2Reported in Chaim Ilortkomingi 652SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK abbreviated part of the historical record are somewhat BLACK AND WHITE INCOME DIFFERENCES exaggerated, as are conclusions about society that are Misinterpretation of Et-Olds can also be due to inadequate based on them (Cher lin, forthcoming). disaggregation of the data. coniider, for example, the It should also be noted. that the annual divoree rate difference between.average family incomes of blacks and represdnts the cumulative expenence of couples whose whites. In 1969, the median reported income of black marriages may span as few as several months or as many families was 61% that of while families; in 1978 it had as seven decades. The annual divorce rates we record fallen to 59% (Hill 1980). Do these data mean that blacks today do not, therefore, reflect only recent changes in fare worse now than they did at the beginning of the society. Instead, they reflect changes that -have takeh decade? Or that society has made little progress in erad- plAce ov,..er many years but which are poorly detected in icating income inequalities? contrasts between short penods of time or atypical rates. The problem with these conclusions is that they invite In order to obtain a fuller understanding of the changes confusion of family income with individual income If in the, divorce rated[ is useful to examine changes in family incomes are compared, the picture is the one that the proportion of marriages cqntracted in a given year is sketched above. However, if the average incomes of which have ended. or can be projected to end; in dporce black and white svorkers are compared, the conclusions (Preston and McDonald, 1979). Figure 2 shows' that are very different. For' the gap betweenindividual in- marriages contracted in 1970 were six times more likely comes has narrowed: on the average, earningsof blacks to end in divorce than marriages begun in 1860, but only have nsen faster (in constant dollars) than the earnings about 20% rpre likely to end in divorce than marriages of whitesIn 1959, the average income of black men contracted in 1960 Thus, while the chance of divorce who held jobs was only, 58% that of white male workers; 'for a couple maned recently has increased, the rise in 1977 it had risen to 13%. Black women whoheld jobs not been as rapid as the annual divorce rates wo d lead earned 64% of the wages of white female workers in us to bJlieve. 1959 arid 95% in 1977 (Farley, 1980). 50 - .40 - 30 - '20 10 1 1960 1970 18 70 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 YEAR MARRIAGE WAS BEGUN Figure 2,Proportion of Marriages Begun in Each Year Which Will End in Divorce, 1867 to 1973 r SourceUnited States National Center for Health Statistics. 1980. Preston anti McDonald. 1979 as reported in Chaim (forthcoming) -, not working because of temporary layoff or other reason, with known measurement error than to replace it with with9st a job and looking for work (unemployed); and, an untried innovation. It is easy to forget that "breaking finally , not in the labor force. According to this scheme, new ground" in the conceptualization and measurement the labor force is the total of those with jobs and those of social conditions may damage the foundation of the without jobs who are seeking a job. The unemployed are data to assess how those codditiwis have changed. a separatelyand somewhat independently measured When the development of new concepts and measures group. Under the old scheme, an increase in the gainfully is imperative, as it' is likely to become for many social occupied implied a decrease in the unemployed. This phenomena, a second set of solutions can be used to was not true under the new .conceptualization, where the reconcile the competing needs for updated and compa- number 9f both th& unemployed and the employed -could rable measures. risescr,long as persons were entering the labor force from First, old measures should be overlapped (i.e., con- -the "not in the labor force_ category. Indeed, the au- tinued to be recorded along. with new measures) until dience.in the 1976 Ford-Carter debate heard Governor these new concepts and measures are well understood Carter claim, correctly, that the number of unemployed and their relationship with old measures can be cali- had risen in the most recent month and President Ford brated. In this way, a bridge is built between two senes responded, also t.orrectly, , that the number of employed of information measured bY different instruments, allow- had risen. Four years later in the debates between Pres- ing analysis of a continuous time series that is uninter- ident Carter and Governor Reagan, the same claims could rupted by changes in measurement. be heard In both cases, all the information cited was Second, indicators whose meanings have changed obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all the"should not be summarily discarded. Adjusting. or index- contentions were correct as the terms "employed" and ing to a,constant meaning is a useful technique to bring "unemployed" are currently defined and measured current measures in a series in a closer approximation (Cain, 1979, National Commission on Employment and to the metrivon which the subject was previously based. Unemployment; Statigtics, 1079: 21-29, 43-56; Webb, Measures of trends in " constant" dollars, for example, 1979). attempt to adjust for that portion of an increase attrib: This process of redefinition in the face of changing utable to inflation. conditions and needs is integral to the measurement of Yet another way jo' meet the needs for replicated and social trends. The social sciences, to a far greater extent redefined measures is to collect and distribute informa- than,the physical sciences, must adapt to new conditions tion in a form that does not solely reconstitute or recode and adopt new, improved, or alternate measures (see the new data in the series. Numerous private and public Clogg, 1979). surveys and the current, Census of Housing and Popu- But herein lies one of the most difficult problems to lation, for example, ask a series of questions about the be 'faced in the.study of soda], change. how can the occupation of respondents or of other members of the concepts and measures of a socia' phenomenon be re- household. The information provided in response to defined without also destroying the comparability of these questions is usuajly reported or releasbd in the form measures andditrupting the staiistical time series on of occupational codes. ,When these codes or classification- whiclfso mach of the'study of social change is based? schemes are changed to reflect changes in jobs and their For example, what current measures of the labor force classification, as in the 1980 Census of Housing and can be compared with measures of the gainfully em- Population, reafchanges in the condition being measured, ployed collected prior to 1940? Or, to return to the pre-, cannot be disentangled'from the artifactual changes pro- vious examples, how could we alter our concepts or duced by.changes in classification codes so that they can measures of the divorce rate or of personal or family be joined to previous observations in the series. Provid- income without endangenng our ability to understand ing the verbatim responses to these questions on the data long-term changes in these social phenomena. In short, tapes released for public use as well as the new codes how can we reconcile the p need for updated would permit recoding of the new information _consistent measures of current levels of ial phenomena with the with that for previgug surveys or Censuses, thereby pre- competing need to maintainontinuity with baseline 4erving the continuity of measurement necessary to as- measures? sess change in the occupational structure of the United Although them are no universally accepted solutions States. to this problem, two strategies promise to provide the basis for discussion and future developments. First, those ' who support and collect statistical time series must resist MONITORING ASSUMPTIONS. PROJECTION OF PRISON POPULATIONS changes in conceptualization and measurement that are offered solely for the sake of change, as well as untested'We have already seen that the adequacy of concepts and small "improvements" in the instruments used to collect measures can change along with the conditionsey are information.It is better. to contiQue to use a measure designed to reflect. Similarly, the validity othe, as- 2 -65' Measurement of Sochi! Change655 sumptions on which Models and forecasts are made can in transition probabilities noted above. (Though not also change.Itis therefore as necessary to monitor shown here, the probabilities of arrest, conviction, and $changes in the variables on which these assumptions rest sentencing by different age, sex, and offense groupings as it is to record changes in the social conditions and the can be disaggregated and used to estimate when specific instruments used to collect that information We illus- types of offenders will reach their maximum population trate this point with the case of projections of the prison. in the prisons. `Such projections may be extremely useful population The commitment of government resources for planning the future constructioNof specialized pnson to the development of prison facilities must be based, facilities.) in part,'on estimates of the number of, people likely to The strength of this technique lies in the fact that short- be imprisoned. These projections, in turn, are based on term population projections are based on knowledge of an understanding of how the size of the prison population the size of cohorts'already born. The assumptions about is affected by the interaction of the criminal justice sysi changes in the level and rates of births, deaths, and tem and the dynamics of population change. migration'are fairly robust, as the rates tend to change There are several ways to project the size of our future slowly and cyclically. The weakness of the technique prison populations The method used here, to project lies in the assumption of constant or time- invariate tran- how prison commitments inPennsylvanidare expected sition probabilities. to change between now and the year 2000, is based The implications of this assumptipn forprojec\iss/are primarily on calculating the transition probabilities of important. If the criminal justice system remains un- going from, e g,arrest to conviction, and conviction changed (e.g.,, these transition probabilities rcinain the to sentencing for ecific sociodemographic groups in same over this period), the prison population of Penn- the population (B stein, Cohen, and Miller, 1980). sylvania will decline after 1990. But the probability'of W ether that prction will be correct depends on the many of these events is likely to change. Theaverage va idit assumptions used. sentence length may change substantially. for example, figure 3 ?resents a projection based on this technique. due to new legislation or changes in judicial and admin- Pennsyhartia'sgrison population can be expected to in- istrative policies. Perceptions of the severity of offenses crease between 1980-1990 and to decline thereafter, as may alter. And changes in the size of prison populations those age cohorts and sociodemographic groups most (e.g, are they over-crowded?) may influence judges' likely to be imprisoned decline in relative -and absolute decisions whether to sentence convicted offenders to ,numbers in the populatidn. The technique rests'on the prison. assumptions used to project the, future state po ulatioR There are several additional assumptions on which the probabilities of arrest, coniction, and stencing these projections are,based For example. this particular forvarioussociodemographic groups in4Pennqlvania. analysis assumes that except foY race, sex, and age, sim- These assumptions pertain.to change in the leel,nd ilar rates of criminal arrest' conviction, and sentencing rates of birth, death, and migration as well a angel can be applied to everyone. Another and more technical assumption is that the probability distributions for both the time served in prison and the number of prison re-, 12000 ceptions are exponential and that the prison receives in- mates at a constant rate during a short period of time: In making these assumptions about theistribution we 9000 must also assume that the average tim rison remains 0 at the 1975 level in each offense and sociodemographic .977TOWCaPacty group. -J The implication, to bedrawn4om the discussion of . '40 6 000 these assimoptions is not simply that forecasts based. on o . Z transition probabilities (or other forecasting techniques) 0 (/) are inherently difficult, although the many failures in Q. forecasting provide strong evidence for that conclusion 3000-, (Ascher, 1978). There are several additional implications0 as well. First, we can learn frOm forecast failures, but only insofar as we use the future as a test of the impli- cations of the model. And, second, we must continually 1 I I I 1 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 19 95 2000 monitor the indicators that underlie projections. If the YEAR -v. average length of sentence changes, for example; an appropriate adjustment in our model will be required. Figure 3 Projected Prison Population in Pennsylvanta,71970-2000 If we discover that we have ignored some important Source Blumoein. Cohen, and Miller1980-20 causes of change in the .social phenomenon being pro- 656SSRC FIVE -YEAR OUTLOOK jected, the model should be radsed to incorporate them. gration has risen steadily in the United States since the Or conversely, by altering the,6ansition probabilities we late 1950s and early 1960s. Approval of white and black may see how the future size of the prison populationis students attending the same school rather than separate affected, and then decide how resources can be allocated schools has climbed from 49% in 1956 to 88% in 1980. more efficiently. Conti tval monitoring of the compo-. Opposition among whites to a member of their family neng of the model and the projection of alternative fu- inviting a black to dinner has fallen from 50% to 26%: tures through the statistical manipulation ofdifferent opposition to laws prohibiting interracial marriages has assumptions can help us to prepare for, accommodate leaped from 37% to 69%; and opposition to whites keep- to. or perhaps even change the future. ing blacks out of neighborhoods has climbed from 44* Projections of this 'kind can reduce the range of un- to 67% between 1963 -and 1980 (Smith,1980; Davis. certainty about the future and contribute to the consid- 1980, Taylor; Sheatsley. and Greeley, 1978). eration of public policy decisions. Insofar as their as- What underlies these changes in attitudes? In part, all sumptions are made explicit, such projections contribute age groups of the American public havebecome more to our understanding of the mechanisms and processes supportive of the integration of schools and neighbor- of social change. Continual attention to fundamental hoods and an increase in the social relations' between vanables and the validity of assumptions is a small price whites and blacks But this general shift explains only to pay for that greater understanding. a small part of that change, accountingfor only about In addition to illustrating one of The many tools avail- 10% of the total attitude change on racial integration able for analyzing social change, the pnson projection between 1563 and 1978 (Taylor, Sheatsley, and,Greeley. example also indicates the theoretical and' practical im- 1978:48). portance of the size and composition of birth cohorts as , Far more important in explaining the overall change they move thrOugh the institutions of society. This kind of attitudes toward racial integration is cohort succes- of knowledge contnbutes to our understanding of the sion. As an older generation -dies and younger cohorts dynamics of change in prison populations and in the matureto adulthood, these newer cohorts come to com- status of social'institutions such as the social security pose a greater proportion of the generalpopulation To system; in addition, as Richard Easter lin has argued,--tk extent that their attitudes differ from those of their (1980), it may contribute to our understanding of life predecessors, there is a change in the mix of attitudes = chances in suchrealms as occupation, education, in- in the population. This succession or replacement of come, manage, and childbearing., The studyof birth cohorts accounts for nearly one-half (47%) of the total change in racial attitudes between 1963 and 1976 (Tay- O cohorts as they 'age through differing historical penods has yieldedail analytic concept that contributes considl lor, Sheatsley, and Greeley, 1978:48). erably to the statistical analysis of social change. The analysis of the cigarette smoking patterns of women in the Unitd States also illustratesthe use of cohort, age, and period distinctions-in understanding MODELS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL CHANGE AGE. tiel;ds. Estimates of the prevalence of current cigarette - PERIOD. AND COHORT EFFECTS smoking for successive birth cohorts of women for the The analysis of ago, penod, and cohort effects provides year 1900 to 1978 are displayed inFigure 4. Each line a way of understanding how social change occurs. in the figure represents the smoking patterns of women Changes related to an individual's ageare'calleci"age born in a specific decade. For example, women born in effects. Changes brought about by external influences the decade (1901-1910) smoked considerably more than and events that occur during' the same time period to women prior to the turnf the century. Each successive people*" all ages are called period effects. Changes. cohort contained moreomen who smokedthan the attnbutable to generational changes are called cohort previous cohort, until alight decline set in with the effects. (A cohort is a group of people who experience cohort between 1951 and 1960 (United States Surgeon the same event at the same time; most frequently, a General, 1981:31-34). cohort is used torefer to those individuals who.are boat 'These data illustrate the existence of an age effect dunng a particular histoncal time interval) This,mode because the curve for each birth cohort follows the same of analysis attempts to examine specific social Mends in general patterna rise in latcadolescence followed by terms of these three general components. Toillustrate a decline. That. is, for each cohort theprevalence of how the analysis of age, period, and cohort effects has smokingincreaSed with -age up to a point and then de- helped in understanding changes in diverse social phe- creased. Period effects can also be seen. During the nomena we offer two distinct examples: changes, in at.- 1940s and 1950s, smoking increased for every adult co- titudes toward racial integration, and changes in the pat- hort except the oldest; during the most recent period, -) tern of cigarette smoking. however, smoking declined for several cohorts. And a AccOrding,Ito one widely used set ofmeasures of at- cohort effect is also suggested, because the likelihood, titudes toward radii integration, the supporttibAnte- that a woman smokes appears partly to be a functionof D. . . .--v* v:i.. Measzirement of Social... Change657 WOMEN 1931 -40 50 l978; Mare, 1980). Using simple but apparentlysound 9230 assumptions about the operation of age, period, or cohort effects, researcheis have applied log 'linear and logit 40 Nd/eki models to develop distinct estimates of the magnitudes of each effect in specific empirical situations. As these methods are employed more widely, there is reason to /1111111 1951-60 hope for advances both in our technical ability to disen- tangle age, period, and cohort effects,l'id in our knot4)1- I 94-so edge about how and why social changes have occurred. N'IPIIIIFAVAIL Age, period, and cohort 'effects and transition prob-, abilities are but two of many.analytic and statistical tools used to study the causes and consequences of _social 10 /11111 9 \\1WWI trends: The techniques are applieto different types of PAW I I information. Typically, ate, perio and cohort analysis, 1. has been used to analyze Ztois-sectional data, i.e., data 0 AMASON collected from a sample of subjects during 'a relatively *. 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 short period of time. Projections based on' transition YEAR probabilities rest, in part, on an analysis of panel data, Figure 4 Changes in the PreNalence of Cigarette Smoking among, i.e., data based on repeated observation's of the same Successive Birth Cohorts of Women. 1900-1978 .subjects over time. When measurements of social change 31. Source Calculated from die results of over 13.0001nterviews conducted clunng the last two have accumulated a sufficient number of successive ob- quancrs of t978, provided by Division of Health Interview Stausucs, U S National Center for Health Statistics as reported in U S Surgeon General (1981 34) servations, whether panel or .cross-sectional, the range of analytic tools Joranalyzing social change increases. Statistical techniques that can discern the cyclical or pe- ,. the year in which she was born. Smaller proportions of riodie components of trends based. on series of 100 or women born early in this century consistently have been more successive observations have been developed and less likely to smoke than subsequent birth cohorts at used in the social sciences, e.g., in historical demog- similar ages and for each periodOacentyry. raphy and econometrics (Lee, 1975;,McClearly and Hay, Although it is enlightening note the ,existence of 1980; Mayer and Amey, 1974). For the somewhat each of these three types of effects, social scientists are shorter series of observations that are more usually avail-. often more interested in the underlying sell processes. able to social scientists, dynamic regression Or structural For example, the difference in attitude toward racial in- equation models may be applied (Ostrom, 1978); fora tegration between the young and the old is due in part systematic development of a theoretical framework jus- to the fact that younger cohorts during this period were ° tifying the application of specific classes of these models more highly educated than theirselders. Because the ed- to social indicator time series, see Land (1979). ucated tend to be more supportive of racial integration *Like' all statistical methods, these time series tech- than those who are less well educated, the replacement niques rest on numerous assumptions. some concern the of the elderly population with a ,generation of highly presumed causal relationship among aspects of social educated young people increased support for racial in- change; others pertain to the metric by which social con- tegration. But in addition, quite/apart from their greater ditions are measured, and still others concern the statis-. education, younger white cohorts have been exposed to tical characteristics of the series. Social scientists, in a different set of experiences, which have prepared them collaboration with statisticians; are developing methods to support integrationist positions. Uncovering these ex- to assess the accuracy of,these assumptions, in addition, periences is a major objective of researchers who use they are developing techniques that make it possible, age, period, and cohort models to Understand social statistically, to relax the assumptions or to transform the change. data in.ways that-meet those assumptions (Scheffe, 1952; It is difficult to develop modelS that can identify and Tukey, 1977; Fienberg, 1977)., These methodological, separate the three effects because any two define the develOpments have been aided by advances in statistics third For example, given a particular period and specific and in computer hardware. and programs. Another key cohort, age is known and invariant. Given a cohort at , step has been the accumulation of time series to which a specified age, only one period is possible. Because of scientists can apply these and other techniques for dis- this interconnection, one of the three effects is generally secting social change. - ignored in analysis. Recently, however, statistical models Thus far, we have tried to show how the underStanding have, been developed to permit improved accounting for of social trends is dependent on the concepts,assump- all three types of effects (Mason, Mason, Winsborough, tions, and techniques that are used to study and analyze and Poole, 19'73; Pullum, 1977; Fienberg and Mason, those changes. These, in turn, depend on our choices of . 658 SSRC FIVE YEAR OUTLOOK 'D D what to measure, i.e.,the subjects to study. These make, and may choose to focus only on matters that can choices will be,t he focus of the subsequent section, set- be changed by conscious government action. The most ting aside equally important issues of determining how obvious candidates for the development of measures are well our instruments measure what they are intended to those elements of society for which governments estab- lish goals and design programs. In the 1960s our society measure. gave incfeased priority to issues ofinequality and dis- crimination; pertinent measures were developed aid used in public policy (United States Commission on Civil PRIORITIES FOR MODELS AND MEASUREMENT Rights, 1978). Currently,thle issues of industrial and The study of social change, like the stu0 of,other prtIfs- scientific productivity are perceived as urgent and de- mat or social phenomena, necessitates choices among mand the development of new (and the scrutiny of extant) those aspects that can be modeled, measured, and ana- concepts and measures.fo make, ratibnal social choices ,lyzed systematically. The first task forublicolicy and about goals and programs, governments have established research is to select which aspects of soci should be prograins to monitor conditions such as health,nutrition, investigated or monitored. In other words, what are the housing quality, crime, education, employment, income, major problems or issues in-social change that merit new and standards of living and have collected information and continuing attention? In the United States, the major about births, deaths, marriages and numerous other phe- problems and issues in modeling and social change de- homena. Large-scale social experiments (see the chapter rive from two principal sources:(I) the theories and by Judith Tanur in this volume) have added to this in- models about social change that are formulated by social formation. Data collections have illuminated many issues scientists; and (2) attempts 'to illuminate theproblems of public and private interest, including politicalpref.) andevaluate the policies and programs that are important erences, religiOus affiliation, consumer confidence and to $ublic or governmental interests. plans, racial' attitudes and practices, and the use of goods Maiiisocial scientists give high priority-to the col- and services. Arid national polls on a*iety of issues ,lectiorr of information about social conditions that con- have provided what amounts to a continuing national tribute to our understanding of how society changes. referendum of important concerns. . Models that einphasize the relation of social conditions Returning to the question thatopenediNhis section' to change often re9ire the developmentOf, new concepts which indicators of social change should be given prior- and the collection of new information.MModels of the ity of attention and'resources?we find that two answers predominate. One is that 'those indicators and methods. effects of scientific and technological innovation,for< 4 example, have generated efforts to measure scientific of inquiry,that are essential to develop acid test the more , 7 productivity and have focused the attention of scientists ,promising models for understanding social-change merit on the, social, political, andeconomic causes and- con- high priority. The other is that those problems and issues sequences of =ovation in science andtechnology. Sim- that require resolution within the publio and its governing*, ilarly, rmodels of occupational mobility between gener- structure should have an especially high priority. Con- ations have led to the measurement of the status accorded sidered separately, each answer offers little guidance to . todifferent occupations in advanced industrial societies. resolve their competing claims f6r limited resources. As Models of social change must be tested by empirical a general rule, however, the payoffwill be especially 6 observations. Deductions from the models, ob,Projec- high w thinterests in explanation and public ;policy tions of change based on them, are tested by the appli- conve (see de Neufville, 1975/39-247). There are cation of analytic techniques to data, many of which are at least thre bstantive areas in which the priorities'of based on repeated observations of'social conditions. government and social II ehtists for the developmentof Where such indicators (i.e., the data) to testthese models measures of social change equally high: incriviCtual and collective well-being, social inequality, and science . exist,-high priority is given to their continued collection; where they do not, high'priority is given to their develop-, acct technology. ment. In short, an important criterion for choosingwhich 0 % relevant to the theo- aspects of social change to study is INDIVIDUAL, AND. COLLECTIVE WELL -BEING retical grow h of the social sciences. The development ' of concepts and ways to measure them,and of methods Social scientists 'and policy makets wish' to model and collective well- ...,to test and analyze social change are partand parcel of measure changes in bothindiv-iduaj,and ,designing and testing substantive models of social being. Considerable progress has been made in meas- . uring changes in the subjective states of individ4s-- change. '. .- The pliblicmandtheir governments approach theprob- such as their aspirations, perception,attitudes, and, , . ., .lerh of collecting information about society somewhat opinionsAd in their objective circumstances as" ex-. .. diffeiently from that of social scientists. Governments p5essed by 4ncome, housing, or level ofeduCation gather information pertaining to the choices theymust (Campbell, Converse, and Rddgers ,197(1) .Less well' * -A 269 I , Measurement of Social Change659 understood is the relationship between changes in ob- states of society is poorly conceived, measured, and re- jective and subjebtive measures of individual' well -being ported. Yet these concepts represent some of the most and the chnges in the well-being of organizational life. important elements one. wants to know about -societies We know 'more about changes in small groups `such as, and how they change._Wknow little about the demog- households or families than we dQabout changes in social taphy of organizations, the conditions under which they networks or in formal complex organizations. And we flourish or die, the changes in their relationship to each know little about how organizations originate; `flourish ' other, and the size and composition of their membership. and die, how their relationships with people, or other' We have yet to obtain comprehensive information about organizations change, and what the consequences of the female and minority composition of organizations those changes are for the collective well-being of society. and are theOfore unable to calculate changes in fie rates One of the major public Concerns of our time is the of compliance with laws intended to eliminate li.scrim- capacity oflgovernment and our free-enterprise system ination. Nor afe we able ;assess changes in the rates to meet the aspirations of our citizens. Though there is at which the hiring practices of organizations are chang- mA agreement that aspirations have:Nade increasing inga statistic cor'which aggregated information on in- demands on the society's capacity to meet them, we have dividual employment is not suitable. Surely, it would.be few if any models that explain the relationship between. unwise to abandon attention to measunng changes in It ( aspirations and capacityNbr do we have arty viable slates find their consequences for colleCtive models of the ways'in which organizations, including well-being. But models and measurestf collective states government, limit individual aspirations so that they do of society, based on the ,behavior of organizationsas "IP\ not endanger .the collective capacity to satisfy them. well as thar of individuals, are at least equally important. What. is the relationship among unmet aspirations, mass In short, welkbeing is a complex- social phenomenon discoitent, and political action? (See Hirschman, 1973 thar eludes simple classification and measurement. It 'Bo.: for a nolel approach to this subject.) How do societies. altroperty inherent in individuals and in the collective limit aspirations to avoid chronic conditions of anomie?, life of society, and it requires measurement of subjective ,second. major public issue is die quality of life and objective conditions. clearly this is a research a btth *of individuals and collectivitieS. We need to un- in whicha great deal of Woirk needs to be done.uality derstand better, for example, whether changes in so- of life will be measuredbettewhempe know m e about cedes' :_:,objective" conditions of life make people hap- what.maRes people satisfied 'with their liV and their pier,pier, more.conte'nta or satisfied with their lot. Research livnig conditions, pat titter understanding, in-turn, will suggests that we cannot assume that changes in objective ce. improve our measures of the quality of life for individ- living conditions will produce changes in subjective eval- uals. But /e must also understand how collective . , uations of well-being (Campbell, Converse; and Rodg, Being depends upon the quality of organizational lifer ers, 1976; Easterlin, 1979; Quinn and Staines)..: . z. Although our understanding of changes'in individual SOCIAL INEQUALITY ,;well-being and the ,relationship Between,individuaras- pirations and collectiv8capacities to satisfy those aspi: Social inequality iajor theoretical issue in the social 'raticins may be descrjbed as meager, pur understanding .sciences. Such matters q, tfieredigributioh of income, of changealin collective states of society is even more and tile individua and collective consequences.of a sys- - fibited. We need to understand, .for example, not only-,tem orrewards_, and opportunities bisection cnteria of how crime affects the lives of individuals but also what achievement or ascription, are studied from, theper-41. its consequences are 'for neighborhoods, communities, speotives of many d.isciplines.,Political sciehtists,are con-t, and the 'clifferen'.organizations 'within them. Concepts cermid with the consnences of inequality in poliflea such as justice or social cohesion are not reducible to the participalibn for democratic authority? Psychologists lives .of a society's individual members noncan they be model the subjective consequences of inequality. Ellin- mealuked Simply as the sum'of observations on inIvid- ,,mists include it in models of tbe.akgrEgate economic uals. An'ingrease id divorce, to cite an example that performance of nation's' Each 8? these areas, has: rtia.?;le t, ..demonstrates individual and collective properties, is both teadwayin,developing indicators that permit some meas- a change in the status of individuals and a,change in ure of changes.ib inequality. yitin each there is a.,pre .s1 the social relltionships and organizational structure, in ineeed to develop more sensiSe, refided;"arid accurate society Each divorce increases the,. number of single- jrididators ehanges in educatipn thatgIS beyond itie.as- person households and decreases the number of two- or tfres of the nurhber.O1 years 9f school attended; of ' rix;re perkdri households and families. ththe changes in wealth that include more than measures of relatiOnship of husband to wife, of children to parents, earnings, anof changes in the equity of treatment before.: of'insurers to insured, asiavell as the taxable incdmt and,the law tAtiriclude mortithan the rareot conVietton, . legal status of all parties: ,1 sentencing,tAnd parole for different "racial' or socioeco: 2 At present, the significance of changes in'the collective ,groups .in soci:ety. ", .4. ° t r 270 '),GIIM12",(IMM,11,7 ...1.1/ . 4 660 SSRC FIVE -YEAR 'OUTLOOK emphasized in a Jan- More progress has been made in describing inequality ence.policy. Their importance was Dr. Frank Preis, 4'64 , , than in understanding how it chapges; however. Sodial uary 1981 article in Science by scientists need' models as well as measures of social referred to science indicators as one of, the major sources inequality to explicate4its causes and- consequences. It of information used in making judgments aboutscience' is reasonable td expect that policf needs for measures policy (Press, 1981): Drkpress specifically mentioned in this area will continue. Courts can be expected to the importafice of the National Science Board'sScience . Indicators volumes, which provide extensive informa- continue to use indicators of equality of treatment before 7. ' -the law. Legislative and administratiVe officials will con:" tion about the level of research support and the current conditions of science and technology in the Upited States . . tinge to rely upon 'measures of social inequality tode- .. terniine how- resources shall be allocaked among com -. -(NatiO'nal Science Board,-..1971, 1975, 1977, 1979). pelipg social- prograMs. Anil, both scientistsand The Science Indicators volumes are important for sev- 'eral reasons. First,' they provide a continuing recordof Wit nistrators share pn interest itl whether planned social . changes or. sil.cial programs will have intended or unin- trends-in the social organization of science and its re- . . te?kled.efficts on the- distribution of resources in our source base; this informationis essential for developing . 3 ? I and assessing science policy. Second theycontain in- society,. dicators that can be used br the various objectivesof , 4- - - government, industry, the academy, and themedia. Each INDICATORS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGX volume reports trends in the allocation of resources . Explanations bf social change may incorporate any nuin- across scientific disciplines and research sectors;changes , ber of factors, and it is now generally agreed that.science to the public,,and private management of research and, and technology deserve a promindu place in these development, and measures of the current and prospec- personnel and train- modeks. Wei need to know how developments in science tive status of scientific and technical used for inter- . and technolOgy may lead to changes in economic growth ing. -The- volumes also include indicators or fertility rates,and, reciprocally, how changes in public national comparisons of the growth and consequences of science and technology, such as measures of theM- 4 policy, affeCt science and technology., But despite the importance of these areas in understanding social trend's, alice of payments, pa.tentiregisteted, and' investments relatively little effort has been devoted to the skatistical in various types of R&D.,. Third, the Science Indicators volumesf&cus attention . r measurement and explanation ofthe ways in whicS sci- ence. al technology cause and are affected' by social on the production, analysis, andust'of information about . change. There is, for example, a paucity of causal models science and technology, iindltheirpreparation t.imulates to explain how different kinds of scienceand technology collaborative efforts to develop appropriate information. affect- rates of economic growth.,Nor is much known TheNational Science Foundation staff who produce the Useand analyze about the economic effects of the technologies associated report have cooperated with those who .enhanced the ' with,research and development in the social sciences: the indicatqrs and these Joint efitts have managemenrtrainittg. programmed language instruction, caliber-of the information collected and reported in these volumes,. After criticjkm of an early volume for its data educdtional, testing and career counseling, economic . , fopcasting, and computer software all owemuch,toiso- used on public attitudes toward science, for example, the National Science Board commissioned a major re-. cialbience research but their effect on the economy and, a,tdr . society is not well tmderstood. view orthe subject; this led, to 'a.considerably expanded Central to an ,itrcreased of the role of data collection effort th at drev' from models of the way the'United science and technology in.se,eiarshange.s, the, devel- in which public opinion, is articulated in ,. toward' 4 opment of .naeas or use in models of social change States. The in(61-mation on public attitudes willbe published . - . or in theal ati resources. Four general types of erice that' is drawn from this new survey between science ancl.,,fh indicators are needed: (1) those in Science Indicator.? 1980: The collaboration d evaluate science and technol- the Foundation, the academy,- and other government 4.. designed to establ ogy policy; (2) those thatdescribe the public's under- agencies has.also been reflected in regular review sym- - standing of and support for science and fechnolo y, both posi,a and publication on the Sciencelaticalors volumes . . as policy and as $technique for understanding thsocial, sponsored by the Social'Science Research Council's Sub- physical, and tiologicalmorld; (3) those that peit us committee oiiScience and Technology Indicators (El- to understand the social organization of science and tech- kana et al., 1978; Zuckerman and Miller, 190). (See nology; and (4),thoSe -that explore the impact ofscience Knowledge vol.1 (4), for a discussiop of other stience indicators research activities.) . and technoloon society.igy i' , + The usefulness of the work in the United Statesin Science and Technology Indicators:for Public Policy science indicators for public policy has contributed. to The,,most well-developed sit of science and technology a grgyving international interestin indicators of science indicatois 'arelfiose retaking to the development of sci- and technology. The Organization for Economic Co- if I A 'Measurement of Social Change661 operatiorhand Development (OECD) recently concluded science is measured by surveys, assessing public confi- 4. 4*- tip third of a series of workshops and conferences for dence in scienCe and stientists, attitudes toward R&D reptrsentatives of member countrieson science and tech- expenditures, and attitudes.towardthe ability of scientists ,nology indicators resent plans call for the organization and engineers and their methbds to 'find solutionsto to produce a bienniA report on science and technology pressing problems (Miller, Prewitt, and Pearson, 19/30).. 7 indicators (Science Resources Newqletter,1980). The relations of science andits public are revealed.4- Despite the atfention to and research in the develop- 9:4 well in the changing patterns of careers chosen by, the ment of this area, thereard.still major measurement prob- nation's youth and in the way the electvate supports.of lems. The focus of researchand consequentlyvlso of opposes candidateslor public office or votes in referenda the Science Indi,.catcris volumesis concentrated Are on policies related, to science 4nd technology. Other as- &I indicators of science than onmeasures of technology. pects of this changing relationship are revealed, in attr- There are very few measures of the knowledge and in- tudesund behavior exp'essed through-public protests and lir novations yielded by science and technology, Indicators support of organizatits that emerge it] response q) de- of funds and personnel for R&D in science andtec velopments in science and technology. nology are considerably better developed than indicat The recent survey of public attitudes towardscience of tie products or outputs of R&D activities. TliNikrove and technblogy commissioned by the National Science our understanding of the status and prospects ofsnce Board has helped to clarify some of theseissues (Miller, and technology, measures of inputs anti outputs are Prewitt, and Pearson, 1980). But we have not had enough needed There is also a need to disaggregate indicators baseline measures to replicate over time; only when these into ,specifie sciences, scientific specialties, and topics are available and repeatedly asked, will we be able to of study For example, civilian expenditures for tech- determine whether and why many of tlii5ge, aspects of the nological R&D should be separatedfrom' expenditures public's linderstandikg and support for scienceare for defense; this would help not only to target govern- changing. ment programs but to understand processes of scientific and technological change. Social Organization of Science and Technological Public Understanding arviSupport for Science Development To limit science and technology indicators to such meas- A third area of science and technology indicators ?e- ures as manpower, expenditures, or the number of reg- search concerns how science and technology are orga- istered patentK would unduly restrict our 'understanding nized(i) acquire new knowledge 'and producenew ap- of the role playedby science -and technology irtaffecting plications. The policy focus of indicator% of inpiefind). social change. it would also limit our understanding of output ignores the process through which inputs become Ivhy science and technology policy changesas it does. outputs. Moreover, wed° not now know how to measure Science operates "within a publiC framework. Publicun- changes in the most elusive product of scientific research, derstanding of ,icience--lits interest in and support fol. new ideas. t. , .scientiffc work:7-, is essenti91 to the growth and devel- Additional indicators of internal processes of sciencV opment of the enterprise. Knowledge of changes in this are needed to monitor productivity in R &D and creativity public framework provides a base for developing and in particular laboratories or disciplines. Indicators of the evaluating policies on scientific rh-earch and education; tie between research support and the, aiiplication of sci- it.also provides a foundation for understanding the chang- ence to social ends, ranging from industrial production ing relationship between the public and the- scientific to a more healthy people, would be valuable ,both frOm community (Eritedulus, 1478): the perspective of science policy andfor measuring in- Again, there has been some. progress in the develop- ternal processes in science itself.' ment of concepts and measures concerning this aspect of society and Jtecjinology: Indicators of public under- Impact of Science and Te- chnology bnSociety standing of scienceay be found in a numbr of sources, This is the broadest and most complex area for the de- including the Science Education Data Book produced by velopment of science indicators. It is also one of the the National Science Foundation, and trends in studenti' oldest. As early as the 19Z0s, William F. @gbum,re- science iscores provided by the National Assessment Of cognizing the importance of science and technoloonin, Educational Progress '(National Science Foundation, ,social change urged social scientists to monitor trends 41 19804 'Public interest in science and technblOgyismon- in science and technology in 'order to understand' the itored in part through sales of books and magazines on social and economic changes taking place in society science and technology, the share of teleyisiOn'andierice (President's Research Committee, 1933)9 In the 1960s, fbr shows on science and technology, and attendance at Raymond Bauer and his colleaguest attempted to deter- ti science and technology museums (United 'States 'Do-;Mine the effects of. the space program.on Americanbso- : pdrtment of Commerce`, 1976,, 1980). Public suppdr(for ciety.., but concluded that the effects could not be meas- .. 41,, to ' 4 662 'SSRC FIVE-YEAROUTLOOK ured until there were improvements in bothdata and PROBLEMS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NATIONAL SYSTEM OF SOCIAL social measurement (Bauer, 1966). . The problems faced by Ogbtirn and Bauer were con- MEASUREMENT siderabll The direct effects of scientific or technological The statistical measurement and analysis.ofsocial change changes, while often considerable, frequently takeplace depend heavily on .public policies and themanneti in over a- long period of time anddo not remain static over which the researchenterpnse isofganiz,d. Public policy time. This makes it difficult*todevelop measures of the on the measurement of socialchange affect the sub- ,,,,interaction of scientific and social change for anysingle stance of inquiritswhat thesociety wants to know-- period. ft also means that useful comparisons overtime and the development and selection cifprocedures to an- cannot be made until enougIrtime,haselapsed to permit swer those questions. How wegather information and consideration of all the changes. The indirect effectsof.:,.condue,t analyses raises questiong aboutstatistical policy; scientific and technological changes are even moredif- the relative, emphasis to be placed onshort-term and ficult to identify and measure, partiCularly becausethey long -tern research; the feed's of responsibilityfor gath- interact with other cause§. of change. eringanX reporting information; the ownership of dat'a The future study of indicators of the impacts of science gathered .for scientific inquiry, the meansof producing and technology on the society should examinethe kind$, the data, and many other issues. Some of the major issuesa- of interactions that occur and the ways in which they in" statistical policy are noted below,together with a influence change. Emphasis should be given to social as discussion of a few of the conditions thataffect how well well as technological innovations Socialand behavioral the statistical measurement and analysis of socialchange research has shown that the quality andefficiency of is currently conducted-iatheUnited States., industrial prodUctivity ca'n be improved not onlythrough technological innovations but also through social inno- vations in management andproduction (Cole, 1980). CCISITROL OF STATISTIC ODUCTION indicators of thee social innovations would bevaluable information -for both the study of social, change and for'industrial Because ederal government agencies report on national trends and provideinformation on state and policy. Federal gov- Volume-41,2f the first Five-Yeai Outlook pointed out local governments, it might seem that the collecting the data as well as that a principal effect of technologicaldevelopment dur- ernment is responsible for for compilating and reporting them. Yet that is oftenfar ing recent decades has beenthe accelerating rate bf hu- vegetation, water, and air; there from the case. Much information that iscollected, and man alterations of land, reporting sys- was relatively little documentation, however,of the na- reported by federal agencies derives from has, ittle if any ture, extent, or,. rate of acceleration, norof the ways that tems over which the Federal government humans were causing thesechanges. Rather, attention direct control, and over which it?aixercise relatively little quality control by audit or directintervention. The focused on "... thenature, extent, and seriousness of Federal statistical system is a mosaic of public andpri- the problems" posed by toxic chemicals," andthe hope information relevant to expressed' that ". .. as moreknowledge is gained, we vate information systems; most collected by insti- will leArn how to be ter control and reduce toxicchemical st4e, local, and private interests is control. hazards" (National Science Foundation,1980;240, tutions outside the Federal government's direct 261). The control of toxic hazards is as Much amatter. Vital statistics on births and deaths depend upon reports officials who of understanding social causation. andmonitoring the, of local coroners, physicians, and. other understanding the report to county registrars., whothen report to state and - effects of social programs as it is of system'". chemical nature of these substances and their conse- Federal statistics officials. Even where a single the production of in- quences for human health.Knowing that toxic chemicals appears to exercise control over statistics, chemical treatments_can reduce formation, as in Federalprosecutorial or court may cause cancer or ihat of discre-- toxicity is no assurance that their production anddistri- control is impaired by the institutionalization lattercssues tion in district offices. Dual bookkeeping ordual statis- bution can be controlled effectively. Tese Federal reporting require an understanding of how socichange can be tical operating. systems for local and purposes exist. In highly complexinformation systems, brought about. Agency, Measures of social change must be developed to par-4 such as those of the Environmental Protection del theincreased knowledge of .hdw. to design more a mix of state and Federalreporting systems islhe basis for agency statistics and a potential source ofvariation efficient and selective technological cuntrols. Todevelop collected and reported. new technology for sequestering,degrading, containing, in the way in which information is Variation in statistical reporting by local collection- or removing chemically, laden ,wastesis not enough. It information is equally important to develpp ways ofmonitoring the units can affect the quality and quantity of based. A local police ,de- efficacy bf such control systems; this will requiremodels on which social trends are Uniform Crime of regulatory systems and how they work, sothat we partment4nay fail to report or the FBI Reporting system may temporarily suspendthe inclusion may deal with their failures. t" 4 4°' leasurement. of Social Change663 of information from some locaifolice department be-. Closely related, to the problem of accessibility and cause of unexplainable fluctuat ons in the information proprietary interests is the lack of sufficient opportunity supplied Such lack of completeness in a reporting sys- to assess and affect the quality of information. Much tem poses the problem of how to take "missing infor -- work needs to be done on. statistical means for assessing mation" into account in reporting totals The problem data quality, on how to control for an4 take aikount of is,een only more compelling where information is pro- errors in its production, and hoirto bring at instil duced by private organizations, flit- example, the infor- tutional arrangements that lead to high quality infor- mation on school busing, which is obtained from public mation for public use. To relieve these problems, atten- and pri ate schools Information on industrial accidents tion must range beyond thMFederal statistical system or compliance with standards for regulating the produc- upon a national statistical sy stem, in which the intimate tion of nucletr powelt depends on reports from pnate connections between public and pi-Rate information sys- organizationsIf one wants to know how often nuclear tems are recognized as both a strength to be used and power plants violated NRC standards within a given pe- a problem to be solved. 'rititl, one must depend on a mix of private.and public data collection and reporting. The -quality of information on social change may also NATIONAL OR LOCAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR INFORMATION. be affected by the division of labor which locates much Pfleg'WOrd "statistics" originated with therise 'of state (though not all) soeial research in the universities, and accounting and accountability. Statistics.were developed statistical data gathering and its archiving in the govern- to assess the state of the state; to descnbe its past; and ment This arrangement presents 'a number of difficulties to hold it accountablein the future. The history of state for the coordination of research and development hi the accounting reflects the development of a vas array of- - measurementof social change. . statistics focusing on what governments do .and upon how they collect and.disbure revenues. A ecause of the tradition of independence among gov- THE OWNERSHIP?, INFORMATION 4rni g units in the United States, each one has tended to develop its own statistical ,accountingesystem. As a Proprietorship of information exi?ts when the agency result, there is eonsiderabhfdifficulty in comparing goy-- collecting the data has the right to limit the access of erning units or in merging information from them. For others to it This kind of ownership seriously irripairs the44 example, despite se,eral attempts during the past decades, development and dissemination of quality statistics on to match and merge state court statistics, we aresnll a social_change, for it means that access to information is long way from having comparable statistics, due.mdre limited, and that documentation and opportunities to to differenceg in statistical information systems than to scrutinize the productn of information in order to assess differences in the law and its administration. Statistical its quality are restnc ed. indicators are most useful when comparisons can be Public access to governmentally produced information made among them. Deihands for comparison arise not has increased under the Freedom of Information Act and only because larger junsdictionsomust hold their smaller so-called state and local "Suffstine".statutes. But much subunits accountable for funds, but also-because each information in effect remains prOprietary because it is level of government seeks to guide its course by corn- > in a raw or unprocessed form, poorly documented, and ,x parison with others. The decision about howmuch a. not uniformly accessible. Transforming raw data into a municipality should spend for fire protection will depend set of social indicators for diverse public and private in part upon how much is spent in comparable jurisdic- purposes is no simple task. Although data may be re- tions. Note that in grder to make this comparison, both leased from which confidential information has been ex- the jurisdictions and the information about Iem must cised, only a limited number of people can use data in be comparable. this forme Those who can process this information are Each level of government must attend to these issues often hindered by deficient documentation concerning in'some degreel Yetit appears to have fallen largely to dita collection and processing. And to learn (tits avail- the federal government to -initiate systems of data col- ability and acqu,ire, the information when it is developed*lection that fkilitate comparison among units and pro.- by an agency solelj, for internal use is likewise difficult. for the merging of information from smaller into There is no simple is"oltition to such problems. But larger ones as well as its disaggregation frqm larger into a priority for any .Federal, state, or local information smaller ones. From the perspective of organizingstatis- system must be to determine what is to be routinelyA tics, central coordination and control of the collection processed and reported We need scholarly as well as and collation of information appears to be an effective managerial attention to decide what information about way to insure that information and their bases are com- social change should be accessible and reported rou- parable insofar as this centralization is accompanied by tinely7 and what information about the data and proc- the standardization of concepts and measures and atten- essing will facilitate access and analysis. tion to issues of data quality. .111 664 SSRC FIVE -YEAR OUTLOOK Federal leadership 'and sponsorship-is-not-withOu t its iz-ation-statistios4er-e x amplei-have-depended-en-funding------# . costs,however. A pnncipal one is that federal needs and of such short-term that the assurance of statistical time pnonties for information come to take precedence over series has been piecarious at best. Although one-and slate and local ones. Moreover, proprietary nghts in in- two-year grants for research provideincentives to dem- 'formation send to be assumed by centralized bureaucra- onstrate immediate pay-offs in order toinsure continued often at odds with the cies, to the 'neglect of equallycompelling claims of de- support, this system of funding centralized operating units and more local bureaucracies; development of measures of social change that require A major consequence of granting priority to Federal_lengthy series of comparably measuredobserviVons. Tlfe intimate cOnnections between research and de- .'statistics is that the description of social trends at the national level tends to focus perceptions on problems velopment require long- as well as short-term funding, and their resolution as national ones, such a'description particularly for the study of social change where the underplays the fact that these problems arise, and often concepts and measures are more meaningfulin the long- - can be resolved, in local areas by local-aifthorities. De- terni then in the short - tern. The need to arrange contin- centralized governing structures can be undermined and uous funding on a project-to-projectbasis is a serious their options,restncte&if they lack the information nec- drain on the time and energy required for developing essary to. assess local variations andprobleins."Even information about social conditions and' for measuring, where local governments develop such information, they explaining, and projecting the course of change. are often severely hampered inacquiring information about..comparable units that would assist in, their defi- iNERIFICATION OF THE ACCURACY OF INDICATO6S ninon and resolution. t A societal need for information creates the need toinvest A major goal for socialscientists. must be the (level- in information systems and evaluate theirperformance. opment of statistical measures of social changethat meet Hence data development itself requires research on how local ana state as well as federal needs and priorities. to gather information with known;if not controllable, That developMent requires statistical- as well aspolitical error properties, to insure thatchanges in the indicators attention, and neither is siqople-to obtain or sustain. Col- can be regarded as measures ofchange in the society. lecting and collating information, is costly. Moreover, Verifying the accufacy of measures of social change is any agency that collects information will ordinarily at- costly, however. When resources are fixed, the allocation tend to insuring the quality of data it findsimmediatfly of research funds for this purpose will channel. support useful rather than to its utility for future comparisons away from efforts to, collect, analyze,and report that, that are not germane to day-to-day management. information:: In one extensive effort to venfy the re- How can,we develop concepts and measures of social sponses'of sublects regarding health service delivery, change that Meet requirements at all levels of governthent verification efforts Used one-third of the resources, ex- and 'maintain high quality data at relatively low cost? tended the completion of the project by 18months, and stveril ,tatistical courses offer promise. Synthetic es- complicated data processing. and analysis (Andersen et 01 timates for smaller areas arebeing developed thatmake al.; 1979:122-131). In the coming years,chOices con- use of ldcal population ,counts inconjunction with re- cerning this investment willbe made more explicitly as latibnships observed in data obtained on a national level. cumulative research experience provides moreinfor: Another promismestgegy is the increased use of sample mation abotil the subjects Andconditions under. which surveys to create state.and local aswell as national in- the accuracy of indicatoYs must be verified. dicators, thus supplementing national samplingframe, so as to allow inferences aboutthese smaller units. 1,, -YEAR OUTLOOK FOR RESEARCHON I EMPHASIS ON SHORT-TERM LONG-TERM RESEARCH A'IVE - e SOCIAL CHANGE 4."' One of the criticalothtacles to the development of a national systerikf statisticalindicators--integrating Fed- Research on social change will inev$ably have short - needs for eral, state, and ;local government interests withprivate term as well as long-term goals and will serve for sector interests fin'understandingsocial Arends-iarises both basic and applied information. One problem how from the Way in_which research on sdolal'change is research and develoPment programs in this area is funded. Cutrent Federpal support of researchrests on the share, of prospective resourcesshould be allocated budgetary cycles and -policies that are more likely to,among ihese needs and goals: Whois to decide what is o restrict research support to short - ;ern rather thanlong- to betstudied, for What purpose, andby whom? And by what institutional arrangements is the task ofmonitoring term funding. The sameIs true of the fundirng.OPsystems, conclude by tor the collection, stOrage,.and retrievalof data;Histor- sbcial change bat accomplished?, We will ically, the development of measures of voter preferences brieflyorecapitulating,those aspects of the study of social consumer confidence in the eednomy, and crimevictim- .change that will require special attention in the coining erar~oe' I L. I a- ( ( Measurement of Social Change665 five years. The first of these pertains to the objects of change cannot be advanced widaout a concern for insti- that research. A tutional facilities and resources. To an increasingextent, Much of the research on the effects of social change social science requires the commitment of "big science" focuses on its consequences for the welfare of individ- resources. This development raises fundamental issues uals. Our major models of collective welfareare based about resource allocation avi how research institutions on optimiTing or maximizing that welfare. Yet there is and investigators are to share data collectionand more to cbllective life than the sum of its members' analysis. Collective welfare depends also upon social institutions The growing costs of survey research and,more gen- and organizations. Just how changes in social institutions erally, of the collection, processing, and maintenance and organizations affect collective welfare is not well of all statistical data require areexamination of the in- understood, and basic research in this area is essential. dividual science model on which many researchpro- Of ,immediate importance is the development of social grams are based. Large data collection programs must indicators of institutions, social relationships; and or- grapple with the problems of providing access toa Vide ganizations. This research must address, suchquestions community of scholars while at the same time attending as how the bureaucratization of service delivery systems to the needs for continuity of measurement and theory- affect not only individual recipients but alSO the collec- based research. We must give a pnorityin the next five tive capacity to deliver the services; and how changes years to research on increasing the inferential power and in education, rewards, and legal institutions affect social cost efficiency of surveys and to the development or inequality alternative measures of social trends that providecom- Causal modeling is another aspect of the study of parable accuracy for fewer or equal resourcecommit- social change that requires attention The past decades ments. We must also study the organization of research have seen a growing accumulation of measures of social itself and attend to the unique problems posed by big and economic conditions of individuals and anincreasing science. s sophistication in measures, for example. of health, hous-, It is tempting to conclude this overview ofone aspect ing, and public safety. Less effort has been devoted to of research in the social sciences withpetitions for understanding the causes of these changes and their im- changes in the ways that we stu8y so4ial trends. The plications for public policies Nowhere is thismore ap- preceding paragraphs reflect the belief that some aspects parent, than in the area of the role of science and tech- of this research are still in their infancy. Moreover, the nology in social change, where we need to developbetter exploration of new issues and the illumination of old causal models of the ways that science and technology ones in new ways are attractive inducementst both to the affect economic and social growth. scientist and to those who support that research. Con- Inattentibn to the role of science and technologyis tinuing established programs, replicatingprevious stud- apparent also in the realm of science policy. Few models ies, or contributing to the of existing meas- exist that are relevant to setting science policy, and rel- ures of social conditionsmayay be inherently less appealing atively few reliable indicators are available to assist in than breaking new ground. We will conclude, however, shaping or assessing its impact. In science policy, the . with a call for these .latter research -strategies. Only indicators themselves need development. Typically they through fhe accumulation of repeated observationspro- provide information about scientific manpoweror budg- duced by a strategy of continuing measurement,can the ets for 'scientific research and technological development. extended process of change be studied. Manyexisting What we 'lack are indicators for assessing the effects.of measurement programs represent considerable Invest- these inputs; we have few good measures, for example, ment in the development of.conceictts and measures and oche generation of knowledge and the productionof our Understanding of social processes. They should not innovations. , be discarded hasiily in the pursuit to change the way in Research and development in the study of social which we study social trends. , / _:. . ...... ""' NOTE Doliald J. Hernandez, Nancy McManus, Roberta paistad Miller,David- E Myers. Robert Parke. and Richard C' RockWell. James Davis, William E. Mason, and Kenneth Prewut reviewed the chapter and 1 This chapter is in an important sense a group rather than an provided suggestions. Karen Crouse and Celia S. Futrovsky tookcare indivtduat product. based on contnbutions from the entire Professional of the typing. I am indebted to all the above; especially RobertPearson. staff of the Social Sciehce'Research Council's ,Center for Coordination and also, for many stimulating discussions of social ' measurement, to of Researcb on Social Indicators Among these,kobertPearson played the present and former members of SSRCIs Advisory and Planning the central role, working with materials furnished by himself and by Committee on Social Indicators.f 4S , . 666 SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK Jacobson, Paul H. 1959.American Marriage and Divorce.New York: REFERENCES Rinehart. Anderson, Ronald. Kasper. Judith. Frankel., Martin, and associates Kaufman. Herbert. 1976.Are Government Organizations Immortal' 1979.Total Survey Error.San Francisco Jossey-Bass. 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Supplement? fromJournal of the American Statistical Association34.49-56). 1 Final Divorce Stau,stics 1978 Vital Statistics Report, Advanced Re- Zuckerman, H,ale Miller, R.B.0980. Indicators of Science: Notes port 29 Washington: GPO. and Queries.Scientometrics2:347-353. c) r 4 0 0 A, e 0 O 278 ""' - I ti o . Socialand Emotional Development k) in 'Children . Martin L. Hoffman a. X . SUMMARY . i expressions of all the basic emotions and thateven at . . , this young ,age the mother and infant 4lievelop subtle. America has always shown a deep concern for -its-chil. nonverbal pattern's of communications which form the, dren and their cducatidn Parents, gthools,' and family.*t:,. basis for more complex social interactions and relation- * assistance agencies have all benefited from knowledge ' ' ships later. The chili's comprehension of othersappears deriva from research on the way children develop. In to progress through foil!' distinct stages, from an initial the past, most research on growingup has emphasized 'confhsion between others and the self s . to an eventual children's cognitive or intellectual growth; but irurecent rareness of others as having identities beyond the im- years, an increasing amount of research has focusedon,4mediate situation. ,Research suggests that this develop- children's social and emdtional develOpment'. Thisre ° ment, called :`social cognition," forms the basis for . search focusei on questions of how children acquire self chit n;conceptions of morality and for the definition confidence, the niotiN'/ation tb help others,a knowledge, of diSlinct stages in the, emergence of helping and others of society's complex laws,.. rules, and norms, the ability4"piosocial" behaviors. . . to comprehend and empathize with the plight of others.4 4 research hasalso focusedon the impact of parents, Afferent from themselves, and the capacity to colgolte,$ r 6Iiildren, and:television on children. The majority destructive or anti-social urges. f / 11g4, of its eon the impact of an employed mother on chi!,--, Recent research offersspreliminary insights intosome dren's social 'awl emotional development show littleor of these complex issues and suggests' likely directions no negative effects anein some instances have shown for future research.. Researchers Studying infants hAfe- some benefits. Similarly, most research on the impact begun to dtsurnent the importance dearly mother-infant0. of divorce has found only minimal long -term negative interaction. Closi, frequent, affectionate, and responsivesbeffectson the children. However, this researchis limited. . contact with a primary caregiver in the first year oflife 0) scope. Parents' use of inductive discipline, techniques. appears to lead to the develdpment of an inflai who is itn. ..which the 'negative colisequencesofan act are ex-. securely aftached,,,a characteristic which coAbutes to plained) and their frequent expression of affectionout- AtfeChild's later ptychologicaladjustment. Other studies.,side a specific discipline encounter, appear to foster the lave shown' that infants in it* first year showfacial.internalization of morality. Peer Interaction 'that is 7"-- , :,, .1. su-; \ n.. . 41, , 0 I 669 . .279 a 670 SSRFIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK . q pervised by,adults can be a useful way to teach childreh Issues as purely scientific' concerns. Itis probably no how to relate to others and solve problems, but thereis coincidence that the student activism of the 1960s, the little evidence that unsupervised children can control rising crime rate, and heavily pUblicized reports of cor- aggressive behavior or adopt socially acceptedbehatior. ruption have paralleled the sharp rise of research on the Most research concerning television's effects onchildren internalization of moral norms and the emergence of has focused on the relationship between violent programs areas of study such as.empathy, role-takingand altruism and aggression:. While laboratory experiments have Similarly, the women's movement has contributed tothe shown that television can encourage violence in the burgeoning of research on sex-role development. short run, the evidence for long-term effects is-not con- The study of social and emotional development in clusive. Other studies suggest that television can en- children involves many complex and elusive issues. How courage cooperative and prosocialbehaviors in children, do children acquire the values, social skills and moti- but it is most likely to do so where supplementary ac- vations that prepare them for a satisfying andproductive tivities or training occur. adult life? How do they come to understand beliefs held Research on motivationsuggeststhat empathy, or the by others thqmay differ from their own and to empathize , ability, to perceive, understand,and vicanously experi- with others' feelings of distress orsOK13? How are ence theemotions,of,others, plays acentral role in the destructive or anti-social tendencies rdstrained9 In pur- child's emerging capacity to help others or act in other suit of answers to questions such as these, researchers socially beneficial ways. Studies have shown that at- have employed a great diversity of theories and methods taching external awards to children's activities may ac- Although the Meld is stilrifoung it is possible to identify tually. decrease their interest in these behaviors. the most influential theoretical approaches and the major methoilological paradigms Clearly, Freud. George Her- Research on social and emotional development in,chil- dren is directly related to public policy concerns and bert Mead, and Piaget are among those scholars whose instituuonal practice. Studies on the importance of early conceptions of development have informed generations mother-infant interaction, for example, have helped of researchers. shape hospitals' arrangements for infant care immedi- To Freud, a child's early interactions with parents set in 'motion psychological dynamics that influence social . ately following delivery and have influenced the speed relationships and motivntionor the entire life course. with which adoption agencies placeyount infants. involve, Emerging findings on how divorce and maternal em- These processes;:, as elaboratarby Freud. may playment influence thidevelopment of young children an intense identification with the parentsand incorporate promise to contribute to various child care policiesand powerful sexual and aggressive drives; or as suggested practices. While character development has always been .by more contemporary' social psychologists, the proc- and imitation. a controversial function in'Amerieaneducation, an in- esses may consist primarily of modeling creased understanding of those conditions conducive to Regardless of the specific processes involved, the legacy" prosocial behavior and moral internalization must be of Freud continues to influence developmental research considered valuable information for teachers and parents Yid is reflected in various attempts to understand barental alike. Clearly, there is also much basic research on social influences on,social and emotional development. and emotional development that has little immediate use The sociologist George Herbert Mead espoused an in public contexts, yet themetal health and social vi- interaciionist view of development that erpphasized the importance of the child', gradual involvement in an in- tality of,children, as Swell as thir intellectuat\competen- of social relationships cies, are of niajor concern to many governmentandwi- creasingly complex net or from early parental authority to later work roles and vate agencies., and their ability to functioneffectively , depends' upon a sound knowledge of how children intimate friendships. In addition, he argued that the child contributesto the emerging social reality: that the so- 'develop. , lt s.cializing effects of parents, peers, and teachers are in- fluenced by the child's own individual characteristics. . yet the tiheoretioal perspective that has perhaps most INTRODUCTION' influence search on social and emotional development In the late 1950s, stimulated.by the innovatiyework of has been thatof Jean Piaget, Building upon careful6b-. Piaget and by national concern about the need for sci- servations of children's early behavior, Piaget flaborated entific talent, the attention ofdevelopmental psycholo- a developmental sequence ofcoghitive and accompa- gists was preempted by studies. of cognition.The re: nying social skills, tracing tt* child's progression from stilling growth in.cognitive research was laterreinforced a naive ego&ntric orientation to asociocentric perspec- by the "War on Poverty" and the inauguration of project tive that provides the child with an understanding of the Head Start. In recent years, an increasingnumber of views held by others: Altholigh Piaget constructed his developmental researchers have focusedionsocial and conceptions of development around transitions inchil- emotional developtnent, again inspired as much by social dren's reastriling processes, they had profound.often - Child Development671 explicit, implications for research on social and. moral £or developmental researchers to investigate causal con- development- nections. A large proportion bf the research on social While themes from each of these theoretical frame- and emotional development has been conducted by ob- works can be discerned in the research reported here, no serving children and sometimes parents from behind the single theory has generated an extensive program of em- one-oWay glass of university laboratories. Yet even with pirical research, and few studies have spanned many the strengths of expenmental design one must question stages of development. In the early years of this field,. whether the events and outcomes observed here would most researchers have chosen, instead, to examine highly occur outside the laboratory as well. - specific issues, employing more modest middle range Developmental researchers are turning increasingly to theones to study children within a fairly limited age the insights provided by systematic field observations. range The. coherence and broad patterning of develop- This shift in method*Ology is partially a result of the mental findings that one might hope for has yet to availability of compact alp and video recorders, but emerge. it is also a response ,to fgrowing desire to document Just as no one theoretical perspective has generated social interactions and emotional ressions in a vanety extensive systematic research on social and emotional of natural settings. Researchers are innovative development. no single methodological paradigm has strategies to study development in field situations, using predominated: and techniques for conducting research electronic beepers to generate self reports (Czikszent- on children have been changing. Correlational analysis mihalyi, 1977) and studying children's emotions through w as one of the earliest approaches employed and remains tape recorded observations by the mother in the fiome a valuable technique to obtain clues about early devel- (Zahn-Wexler, et al.. 1979). By systematically noting opmentResearchers measure a variety. of social and the contexts in which certain behaviors recur. arid at affective characteristics for a large sample of children times expenmentally modifying the contexts, it is often and simultaneously assess a number of variables pre- possible to identify the causes. of naturallytoccumng sumed to relate to these traits, such as social class or behaviors. For these reasons, it is likely that, systematic parental disciplinary techniques. 'However, the correla- observing and intervention in natural settings will be- tions* Obtained in such studies areSuggestive only arid come.a preferred method by a fro wing number of re- '40cannot demonsn'ate causal-Connections, as a result a num- searchers. As the research reported here illustrates, how- ber of other research strategies have emeiged. ever, a truly 'compreheMive knowledge of social and Cross-sectional studies. extensions of the correlational emotional development will require insights from the full approach, examine charactenstics of children of different range' of methods available. . ages and can provide insights into age related changes Knowledge concerning social and emotional devel- This approach confounds the effects of age and cohort opment bears a particularly sensitive relationship to pub- (year of birth), but the same cross-sectional studies ait lic policy. To understand' how Children acquire and be- ministered .repeatedly to representative groups of chil- come committed to v aides and constructive social dren can, over time, provide more valid developmental behaviors does not mean thatk social interventions can be. information, allowing for control of cohort effects and designed. to promulgate the most desirable traits. Unlike offering some assessment of the impaCt of historical cognitive performance, where consensuson desirable events In fact, the systematic collection of national data outcomes usually oan be reached, social and affective on children and famiies has been proposed as part of competence resists such easy determinations. Even if a new effort to deveTp national childhookindicatdrs, consensus could be attained, it is at all clear where similar to efforts that collect social indicator's of ern- responsibility for the development of these competencies ployment and health for adults Comparable data on the lies. While the learning of cognitive skills is readily social and emo onal life of the nation's children would relegated to the schools, the encouragement of social and establish impone baseline information for assessing emotional growth in our society geherally has been con- the impact of v'ous social programs* or unanticipated sidered to be the primary concern of family, church,tnd historical events. friends. These. are arenas of influence .in,which govern- Longitudinal studies, which follow the sameshildreit, ments justifiablyhesitateto in(gqne. Nonetheles;, 'for an extended period of time, allow researchers to trace knowledge concerning the processes of social and emo- the impact cl4r,ely expocience on later social and tional development can be used directly by theSe so- emotional deve tXpment. Such studies have been rich cializing agents. Federal, State, and local governments sources of information about'the specific group,tud;- would b; remiss if they did not encourage the growth but generalizations to other cohorts muse be ma.L.- and dls'semination of developmental ,knowle,dge and ap- tiously Whilemultiple cohort,longitudinal stur.: are ply it whenever it is relevant to their naigral involvements possible, like all longitudinal research, they are co tly. with children. In a society that has so recently experi- Laboratory studies,.in which variables are manipulated enced ethic'al and moral dilemmas of major proportion and outcomes nbserved, have been the customary way and t. nessed unprecedentedly high rates -qf violence, IF 2S/ 672SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK crime, and delinquency, the encouragement of a more plan is fulfilled except tinder extraordinarycircunktances adequate understanding of children's social and emo- when the baby experiences too little interaction with any tional development, must be viewed as a most valuable one caregiver to support theformation of an attachment research enterprise. Though attachment may ultimately be a part of human The research reviewed here suggests that important nature, there are substantial individualdifferences in the advances are expanding the boundanes of our current ways attachment behaviorsteceme patterned, and dif- knowledge. this chapter will suipmanze some ofth'e, ,ferent experienc associated with each pattern. Most major themes of recent research, mainly on the period research has utied a standardized laboratory assess- from infancy to adoliscence; it will report known facts ment procedure, the "strangesituation," in which chil- and informed hypotiltses, identify important gaps in our dren are classified according to the behavior shown when knowledge,' and indicate some of the directions research they are briefly separatat from the mother, left with a may be expected to'take in the near future. .stganger,-and therKeupited withthe mother. Three main assifications of ,infants are obtained: (1) Securely at- tached infantsfreely use the mother as a secure base from which to explore, show some distress ang a rem duction in' exploration following separation. and, upon DEVELOPMENT IN INFANCY reunion actively seek and maintain contact with the No longer do we, as did William James, viethe infant's mother until comforted and then return'to play, (2) Anx- world as a "bowing buzzing confusion." We have iously attached infantstend to show anxiety and little learned that infants, from early on, attend more to novel exploration even before separation. and are intensely than to familiar stimuli, they become bored with the old distressed by separation, upon reunion they are ambiv- and excited with the new. They actively process infor- alent with themother, seeking close contact with her anda mation and they learn from experience in measurable yet resisting contact (e.gby squirming to get down, ways. What we now know abut the infant's perceptual kicking, hitting, biting, batting away offered toys, or and cognitive capabilities IS truly impressive but more continuing to cry or fuss despite attempts at comforting recently we have begun to learn about the infant's social (Ainsworth, 1978), and (3) Avoidant infantsrarely cry and -emotional development. The key conceplin much during separation and upon reunion they tend to ignore, of this research is attachment. look away, or turn away from the mother, or plaice abortive approaches. There is increasing, though by no means conclusive, ATTACHMENT evidence that this classification is a meaningful one, with It has been known since the early 1960s (e.g.,Schaffeit implications for the child's later psychological. adjust- and Emerson. 1964) that infants at about 6 months begin ment. Data show that these assessments of attachments to show a preference for the primary caretaker, usually are stable in middle-class infants from12 months to 18 the mother. Thus, the infant smiles more at the mother months of age (Waters,1979). In poor homes, the than at others, protests more when separated from the changes in attachment were related to changing life mother., makes more of an effort to be near the rhother, events with m hers of infants changing frominsecure and, perhaps most miportant, is more apt to explore new (anxiOus or avoi ant) to secure attachment reporting a and threatening stimuli and situations when the mother significantly g eater reduction in stressful life events dur- is in the vicinity..This preference for themother is not ing that period than did mothers of infants changing in due simply to the infant's beComisig perceptually able the other direction (Vaughan et al , forthcoming) There to, discriminate the mother from others, since hecan do is also considerable evidence that the assessments reflect' this several months earlier, before any decided prefer- individual differences in the infant's home behavior, in encefor the mother. There evidence that the acute the infant's temperament at birth, and in the' parent's distress syndrome, sometimes shown by infants after behavior. Thus, infants who act in a securely attached admission to hospitals or 'residential nurseries', .is Prob- manner in the strange situation also tend to do soin the ably due 'in large partto interference with attachment home (Ain worth et al., 1978); avoidant infants(were (Rutter, 1979). This stIggests that .attachment plays a often constitutionally "difficult" as newborns; and central. role in family social and emotional development. mothers whose personality OE life situation make it dif- Of the several theories. that attempt to explain ankh- ficult to be sensitively responsive (e,g., during feeding) .ment, the most influential one isElowlbyrs (1969) eth- often have infants who, are anxliously attached (e g., Ological-evolutionary view that it is an essential part of Water et al., 1979). Finally, infants who were abased the "ground plan" of the human species (as well as or neglected by their parents show less secureattachment many other spec n infant to becomeattached' to in the strange situation at 12 months than other children a mother figure. isgure can lye the natural mdther from the same community, although the differences dis- or anyone who acts as principal caregiver. Theground appeared. by J8) months due to the addition of family' 2c.19, 1 , di Child Development 673 support or out-or-home care (Egeland and Sroufe, rafent- child relationship, includingthe quality of at- forthcoming). -, tachment, develop. . In examining the later consequences of these attach- There ,is is rapidly growing interest in the origins, of ment pattems, children assessed as securely attached at emotions. Considerable evidence now exists that at least 18 months were found--ae 2 years and at 4-5 yearsto five emotionsjoy, surprise, sadness, anger, fearmay be more enthusiastic, persistent, fle\sble, resourceful, be universal in humans. that is, elicited by similar events and responsive to instructions, and le asily frustrated in primitive as well as developed societies (see review in solving problems than were insecurely attached chil- by Ekman and Oster, 1979). There is agte evidence that dren. And, those assessed as securely attached at 15 the discrete facial muscle movements involved in-the months turned out to be more competenton interacting expression of these fundamental emotions exittin new- with their nursery school peers (Arend et at, 1979). In born and even premature infants (Oster and Oman, general, the findings to date suggest that the quality of 1979). Furthermore, the entire facial patterns associated attachment in the infan't's first year may be a significant with these emotions are present by about 9 months (Izard factor in later development, and that the secure attach- et al.,1980). Because infants cannot talk, it is difficult ment pattem may be the ideal one. It must be noted, to determine v.hpther these facial pattems are associated. however. that all the research reported v.as.done in the with the corresponding feelings, although there,is 'some United States A recent iltudy by Grossman (1980) in ptrtinent evidence bearing on fear. In the first half-year West Germany suggests that cultural factors must be of life some infants appareitly do hot show a .fearful given more attemion, for he found the avoidant pattern expression on their faces even in response to the acute more prevalent in West Germany than is commonly re- pain of inoculations (Izard and'Buchler, forthcoming).. .., °ported in the United States., We can expect .to see con- By 8 or 9 months, however, the infant's face takes'on tinued efforts to discover the long-term, effects of dif- an expression of fear v. hen the inflant,peers over the edge ferent attachment patterns, and to understand how the of a simulated cliff, and occasionally when a stranger patterns and long-term effects are influenced by changes apprefaches (e.g, Campos, 1978). In both cases the in- in family arrangements such as mothers working outside fant's heart rate accelerates v.hen the face shows the the home and fathers serving as primary caretakers fearful or anxious expression. This combination of ap- (L Hoffman, forthcoming). propriate facial and physiological responses suggests the infants may actuallybe experiencing fear. In view of the SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT importance and pre ious neglect of the topic, wecan expect research one ly emotional experience to burgeon Aspects of social developm'ent in infancy other than at- with respect tootr emotions, as well as fear, and in tachment, have also become the focus of research. For older childrens well as- infants. example, some very interesting synchronies in mother- Another line of investigation addresses hov. and when infant interaction have been discovered; using fine- a child first becomes aware of his own existence (e.g., grained "micro-analytic" techniques. When mothers Lewis and Brooks -Gunn, 1979). The usual technique is :'talk" to their newborn infants, the subtle body move- to have the moths unobtrusively apply a dot of rouge ments of the infant are often synchronized to the mother's to the child's nose. An observer keeps track of often speech sounds (Condon, 1977). When mothers and in- the child touches his nose. The infant is then seated fants are presented with novel objects they are more before a mirror acrid the observer notes whether the fre- likely to look at the same object than at different objects, quency of nose-touching increases. At,about 18,months .analysis' shows that this synchronization of visual atten- children shov., by greatly increased nose-touching. that tion results from the mother's tracking and imitating the they recognize and coordinate the image they see in the infant's spothaneous looking (Collis and Schaffer,'1.975). mirror with the motion of touching their own body. This In interactions between mothers and theft' 3-4 month old suggests that they have a sense of themselves as physical infants, the signal for each participant to begin vocalizing entities with a location in space., We can expect future is usually the beginning of the other's vocalization, with researchtot-extend the study 'of self awareness to other the result. tkat both partnets often interrupt each other dimensions.of the self that, emerge as children mature. and vocalize together (e.g., Parke andSawin, 1977). By One dimension of particular interest is the sense of the ,the time the infant iS a year old, a dramatic- shift has self as having inner states.(thoughts, feelings, intentions) taken place and the interaction resembles adult conver- and continuity Over time. It is likely that these aspects sation. the signal for eachparticipantis the end of the of the self will influence, among other things, how the other's vocalization (at least a pause), the mother and child experiences emotions and the nature of parent-child child take turns in their vocalizing, and they seldom interaction. In addition, the nature and strength of the interrupt one another ,(Schaffer, et al.,1977). This self concept may well influence achievements later in emerging body of research is beginning to reveal the .life.. New research might indicate those copditions that professes by Which they unique emotional aspects of the support or inhibit the growth of a positive self concept. 283 4. . ., ." 0 4 674 SSRC ElvE-YEAR OUTLOOK o Studies'- of attachment, communication, emotional aware of people as physicentities, the expression,.and the self in infants have established an young child does not yet know that h inner states informative basis for similar research with older children; of their 'Own,, and- he tads to attributeAtig, thein charac- We can expect the study of these phenomena to be ex- teristics that belong to him. In Piaget's fairiirs'ihree- * tended to allow aconsitieriltion of the effects of age and mountain landscape task,childrerrbeA13Wars -of age p. experience., typically attte tifeir own viewpojrn to a doll situated, in various locatibns aroundThelandkape..pntaget thought it Vas not until about 7 or /3, years.,thatithis "egocerism" SOCIAL-COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT began'to give, sway to the recognitiorkthat oihers have their own perspe,ctive. Reseatch has since shown that P A decade ago, developmental researchers interested in certain aspects orPiaget's.original lapg.g., thesize- . , the' study of cognition shifted from an exclusive concern and.c.ornptexity of the objects diiplayed, a'symmeiricar with'ptOblem solving in the physical world to an equal plaCement, the" requirement of, a verbatiresponse) may interest in children's thinking about their social world, have served to task the 'ability qf young children to see , 4 In part,this shift was prompted by the recbgnitionthat- through the 'eyes of others. Three -year VI, for exarnple, effective human interaction requites the ability to cbm- mb, 'make very. few.errors when the display contains discrete:~ prehend the thoughts, feehrigs, and intentions of others, easily differentiated objects (mid toysranci,kf rbak as well as knowledge of .the various frames ofrefer, encebeliefs, moral norms, "scripts"that one shares 'response is not re4uired;-thlrfs7the-subjecf 'Nimes the other's point-of, view by, mampulating an exactidtplfeate with them. It became clear that cognitive theories based ot the display (Borke, 1975). Two-yeir 'olds will turn upon the physical world would not be entirely applicable a picture toward,anotli6t personwho asks to see' it (Lem- *to the social world. ,. o 4 pers, et al., 19773.* Recent research 'also suggests. that ) ith simple 04 sks, - DEVELOPING AN L'IDERSTANDING OF OTHERS not only spatial but. al'scognitive role -t4ing compe Research has shown that 'children's comprehension of tence appears much earlier than previously thoughtFive- . others moves through four distinct stages. from an initial year-old childien, for example, can infer whether art, confusion between the OtherS and the self, to an aware- other's actions are intentional oracciOntai Four-year ness of other people as separate physical entities, to aolds who watched shokt videotaped ,ction sequences, ability to take the perspective- of others, and finallyk accompanied by an explanatory audio portion, showed an awareness of others as having anindependent exist- awareness that someone else would notunderstand the ence and identity beyond the immediate situation. story when the sound was turned off (Mossier, et al`, "Person permanence" refers to the awareness of an- 1976). Four-year'olds also chose appropriatebirthday other's existence as a separate physical entity: Appar- gifts for their mothers, rather than toys attractive to them- ently the young. infant Wks this awareness. objects. selves (Marvin. 1974). This age grouphas also been events, and people are not experienced as distinct from found to take the listener's perspective into account in the self. Not until about 6 months does the Infant or- verbal communication tasks. They used simpler and ganize the fleeting images -making up his world*to more attention - getting language, for example,when talk- in&ato children much younger than themselves than when discrete objects and experlence..them as separate from 4 his own biologically determined sensations. If a desired talMig to peers or adults (Shatz and Gelman,-1973); and object is hidden behind a screen before the infant's eyes, they were more explicit verbally when giving' instruc- the infant loses interest in it.as though the object no tions to someone who apparently could not see, than to longer existed. By 6 months, the infantremoves:the someone-who could (Maratsos, 1973). screen to get the object, indicating that he can then in- Finally, it appears that role-taking in familiar, highly motivating natural Lettings may precede laboratory role- ternally reproduce the image of an object and use the O ,tmage a$.a,guide to the object. By 18 months, the child taking by as much as a year or two, as evidenced in can retrieve an object after a succession of "invisible children's attempts at deception in the home (Hoffman, displaeements." (The experimenter places the object in 1975c). Role-taking/competence increases inaccuracy a container t then hides behind a screen and brings -and complexity throughout life, but the rudiments of this qiit ern fter releasing the object.) Thik indicates that competencemayibe present before two years even though the ild, can evoke an objept's image even when there it may not be demonstrated in the iaboratorLuntial much is nothing in sight to and! 'to its existence. "Person later. permanence" apparently begins several months earlier The next broad step in the child's development of a (e.g., Bell, 1980): thans, by 1 year children can retain- sense ofth--ether is the recognition that the other has a mental image of a person even in the person'sabsence. his own personal identityhis own life circumstances, The length of time that the child can do this and the and inner states beyond the immediate situation. There number of persons that can be kept in mind obviously has been no direct empirical research on this develop- ititease with age. mental stage, but there is evidence that the child's sense: 25;4 = ID a r--:- Child Developthent675 'of his own continuing personal identityAlcrges some- Kohlberg's theory has been criticized on many grounds, , where h:etwe9n 6 and 9 years (e.g,, Ciiardu and-Bohan, ,e including, thus fara lack of convincing empirical evi - 197 P It §e6-ns reasonable to assuTe that the sew of dente. For examp , he prediction that childie.mare mos.t. the identity of &is would also be attainedabout the"influenced by moral reasons that are slightly more ad- .) same time, or d little liter The childlitauldlthen be able vanced than their on has not been confirmed. There is not only tootalce the role of others and assess their re- also evidence, contrary /o the theory, that some people - actions in particular situations, nut-also to generalize.,may regress in their level of moral reasoning over time, s:- %ken.' jhese and constructa concept of their general life Kohlberg has acknowledged_ the lack of empirical sup- experielice TliiaAvel'Opinental change is obviously port, he has modified the theory and relevant measunng. porfannn the formation of social attitudes, Values, and instwents, and more recently has explored the useful- -N-\belief systems, as well as in the acquisition of interper- ness of this approach in prisons and schools. His research sonal skills., has rycused scholarly attention on the child's o,wkactive effIX/0,...to construct a moral viewpoint, and has forMed COGNITIV.VDEELOPMENT AND MORAL THOUGHT the basis for extensive- studies of moral developmerittnd related areas. : ,Piaget %belief thl cognitive developinentcontributes to - Damon (197), working witconsiderably younger W: meal maturity m childrefi has stimulated considerabler . children thanohlberg, has s ed the development of 41-eseatchlh his view, the egocenti;ism of_chilaren under _moral con-ceps in four distinc s:-friendship,--ifistice--- .7 or $ years of age blinds them to 'crucial aspects Ti.. and 'fairness,obedience and d,social rules \oral- action such as the intiniions that underlie harmf a. and convent' ns. To study ccepts of justice, he asked havior Reeent research that minimizes the cognitive '4-8 year olds what they thought would be a fair way to .. alinguistic demands oil subjects., however, shows that o... . divide 'Candy, money, or toys in sevieral hypothetical lo'ven44-year,olds do consider intentions when making situations (illustrated'wthISIctures).In one story three . in ral judgments (e.g,Keasey, 1978). They can also children worked together to make bracelets for an adult. a ate rewards in a way that shows they can take into One` ehild made the most .and the prettiest bracelets; account both the other children's needs and their 'con- another was the biggest child-, and the third, the youngest, ,- . ..., 't'nbutions to simple group tasks (Andettsoion and Butzin", could not work as well or as fasLasthe 'others. The adult .: 1978) In addition, they recognize that norms about the rewarded the group with terr,candy bars. The children human consequences of action are more important than . - being studied were asked what' they thought was the-, social conventions; for example, they strongly resist at- fairest way to divide the candy. In the responses to these tempts to convince them that it would be proper to hit and yther stories, Damon found evidence of an age pro- someone if the rules permitted, but they can readily be gressionfrom making little or no distinction between-, -, persuaded that if the rules were changed it would be what a child would want for himself and whit he thought 'acceptable to call teachers by their first names or dress was fair, to faVoring an equal division, to recognizing fin what they now consider to be unacceptable ways that some children deserve/more because they produced "(Tune', 1.978). more, and finally, to understanding, that. several valid The most influentialcognitive-developmental theory conflicting claims (e.g., between productivity and need) - has been advanced by Kohlberg (1969). In brief, Kohl- could exist and that a proper balance must be struck, -1110 berg views morality as developing in a series of six Damon's work has opened new areas of investigation. stages, beginning with a pre moral one in.which the child Where do these concerns for justice and fairness, which c obeys to avoid punishment, and ending with a universal are surpnsingly sophisticated for young children, come sense of justice or concern for reciprocity-among indi- from? How .dothe intral concepts of young children viduals Kohlberg. regards each stage as a homogeneous, from different backgrounds compare? To what extent do > value-free, moral cognitive structure or reasoning strat- these abstract concepts affect the child's actual behavior, egy, and maintains that moral reasoning within a stage f or eiamples; when the child's, conceptions of justice is consistent across different problems; situations, and conflict with his or her selflinterest?. Finally, how do values. Each stage builds on reorganizes, and encom- these early conceptions and expenences influence moral passes the preceding one, and provides new perspectives h7VTOr-trfer in life? and criteria for moral evaluations. Kohlberg has proposed that people in all cultures move through the TRAINING IN SOCIAL-COGNITIVE ABILITY stagein the ;sante orderalways forward, never back- ward, and never skipping a stageyarying only in how Many studies have been designed to improve children's quickly and how far they progress. The impetus for perspective-taking skills. These efforts are base'd on'the movemt denves from exposure to moral structures assumption that a person who sees things from she per slightly,. ore advanced than one's own. This produces s'pectivof others is more likely toe,take their needs into a cognitive conflict that is resolved by integrating one:s account In one of the most frequently cited .of these previous structure with the new one. studjes (Chandler, 1973),, chronically delinquent pre- 676SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK adolescent children (11-13 years old) were asked` to write TraininIn various socialcognitive skills has been . skits involving persons of 'their own age, act out the used with ome success as the main ingrediegt in. fatnily skits, and have them videotaped. Each skit was repeated therapy wi lescent delinquents (e.g., Parsons and until each participant had occupied every role, and vid- Alexarider, 19731. One reason for the success may be eotapes were reviewed at the end of each set. After ten the emphasis placedon treatment within the family con- 3-hour training sessions, the role-taking ability of these text, which facilitates both the learning of the social children had improved considerably, compared to control cognitive problem solving skills and their application in groups that received no training or simply watched an- the real . imated and, documentary films. More importantly, 18 The results of these various intervention studies have months later the children who were trained showed sig- 6eg,nencouraging enough to warrant fui-ther piobes of nificantly less delinquent behatiion then the children ji the effectivenessof training in social-cognitive skills on the control groups. Intervention- studies such as this have children (kith emotional disturbances, as well as normal succeeded in improving performance in perspective- anddelinquent childen. . 4 taking, and some, like the One just cited, found improve- Over the next few ytars we can expect to see further. ment in the children's behavioral adjustment.- z;" - .work on other aspects of children's social cognition; An extensive program on the assessment and treatment these include the development of the ability to think and of interpersonal problem-solving skills in children has reason about social institutions , money,politics. been conducted at the Hahnenian Community Mental. and government, see Furth, 1978), the development if Health Centers in Philadelphia ((Shure -andSpivack, the "social-comfiterison processes" by which informa- 1978). The program's aim is to .impioye tbree skills tion about others is employed in the construction of one's found to relate consistently to social adjustment in chil- own self-concept.,(Ruble, forthcoming), the acquisition dren. the abilities to generate alternative solutions to a of "scnpts" or ordered sequences of ,action appropnate . dz interpersonalnterpersonal problem situation, to foresee the im- to . particular settings (Nelson, 1981), and the role of mediate and long-range consequences of each alternative culture (Shweder, et. al., 1981) and of emotion (Hoff- and to plan a series of specific actions to attain a given Mau, 1981b) in social-cognitive processes. goal. The program first teaches'a number of skilp thought to be necessary for problem salving, namely linguistic concepts such as same-different and if-then, and the dbil- ity to identify basic emotions (happy, angry, sad). The MORAL DEVELOPMENT,AGG RESSION, AND rest of the program, is devoted to a series of hypothetical PROSOtIAL BEHAVIOR: INFLUENCE OF end actual interpersonal problem situations.' Teacher PARENTS, PEERS, AND TELEVISION demonstration anclipuppet play are used to illustrate the, Arming yonoepts, and whenever possible the problem- How do humans come to manage the inevitable conflict solvingyinethodsfire applied to -actual, problems that arise between personal iieedsaild social obligations' Iris now , among the children in school. The results of the program generally agreed that most people do not go through life indrate, that trained children improyed.oli measures of viewing society's moral norms (e.g., honesty,, justice, alternative and consequential thinking, as welt as4on a fair play) as external ecoercively imposed pressures. Measure of overt behavioral adjustment. Furthermore, Though initially external and in conflict with one's de- / the improvemnt wasmaintained, at follow-up a year sires, social morality may eventually become patt of /..later,when children were rated by new teachers who one'simotive system and have'ai?effect on behavior even were unaware of the experimental conditidns. in the ,absence of external, authority. This is not to deny Kohlberg's theory of morai.development has also been that _people.' may also be concerned about rewards and used as a basis for moral education in the classroom. punishments Mid that some always, respond selfishly, Since several of the moralstages are apt to be represented sometimes aggressively; when their desires are in con- e 11 among the children in any, classroom, itcan be expedted flict with social expectations. The challenge is to dis- that in discussions of hypotircical or real-life moral con- cover What kinds of experience lead children to respond flicts, children at a relatiVelyilow stage will be exposed to conflict in an internally controlled and nirral manner, to More mature, higher levels of reasoning. The theory rather than with aggression or with 'a concern only for Eredicts that the resulting conflict *Al disturb their com-,..7the relevant punishments and rewards. placency and stimulate them to thinkseriously about the .Research on the socialization of norms and moral be- moral issue, perhaps for the first time,- 0 11 d toexaMine havior has continued for over half a..century; initially their.own point of view in light of the more- adyanCed focusing on the influence of parents, and more recently one. It is assumed that the more advanced pointof *View expanding to consider the role of peers band television. would be judged superior and that the child would modify. Apart from schools, these three agents may well com- his own view accordingly. Evidence for the effectiveness prise the main environmental influences on the extent to of this technique is' inconclusive, though nosystematic which children become individuals who consider the assessments have streh completed.- needs of others or who tact purely out of Self-interest. Child Development ,677 The contributions of social cognition and empathy to that theepasealt feels strongly about something\or tocon- 4.\ moral development are discussed elsewhere in this paper; tiol the behavior of a child who is acting inan trea- sonably defiant mannerby parents,who usualltemploy inductions, may make a positive cdntributiodlo mOral '----CFTIL-DREARI/SU PRACTICES AND MORAL INTERNALIZATION internalization (e.g., Zahn-Waxler,,,er al,, 1979); There appears to be no relationship betw'een, moral internali- Because the parent is the most significant figure in the zation and love-withdrawaltechniqoes in which the Child's life, psychologists have studiedmany facets of parent simpl' gives direct but non-physical expression the parent's roledisciplinarian,. affection giver, model. to his anger cir -disapproval of the child for engaging in The moral' norm stud*d in most of the research can be some undesirable behavior (e.g., ignores the child, turns ',stated simply: People should*in their actions consider the his hack on him, refusesto speak or listen to him,ex- 'fieegof others as well as themselves (e.g., they should plicitly states a dislike for the child, isolates or threatens tell the truth, keep promises, help others; they should to leave him). ThiS research on moral internalization has not lie, `steal; betray a trust; physically attack others or fOcustdon children ranging ,from4 to 12 years of age, hurt their feelings). A moral norm is internaliied 'if a but there is evidence,that the generalizations also hold pepon feels it is his own idea and often acts in accord for children as young as two yeah (Zahn-Waxler et al., with it, wfthout thinkingabourthe punitive consequences 1979). 'of doing otherwise. ,When an internalized moral norm What about the effects of discipline on aggression? is activated in a person, it has an obligatory quality, this When the predominant component of the-kcipline is does not guarantee that the person will always act mor not induction but power-assertion, the chile may per- ally, however, since his personalclesires and situational ceive a clear threat to his freedom of action. This 'may temp Cations may be more powerful. arouse anger and the desire to restore freedom' or "re- Moral internilizatjon implies a weighing of personal actance" (Brehfk. 1972). gut, it may also arouse fears desires againstlhe moral requirements of a situation. of 'punishment if the child disobeys or expresses, his an- Because earliest experiences with this type of conflict gerjho child may thencomply,reluctantly, and displace occur in discipline encounters with parents, and as often his anger later toward less powerful figures outside the as 5-6 times per hour in early childhlbd (see, e.g., home, thus accounting for the research finding, that Wright 1967) parents' disCiplinary procedures are ex- power-asSertion may contribute 011/fie child's aggression pected to affect the child's moraldeveloyment. Affection toward peers.If' the love-withdrawal component pre- is impoitant because it may make thechildmore recep- ,dominates, this may arouse anxiety over the possible tive to discipline, more likely to emulate the parent; and loss of the parent's love. The child may then comply in emotionally secure enough to be open to the needs of order to avoid, the loss and restore harmony. Techniques others. with pronounced love -wit drawal components are often The relationship between types of discipline used when the child expresses anger toward the parent, moral inticeS such as resisting temptation and feeling which may explain why love withdrawal appears to con- guilty over violating a morAnorm have been investigated tribute to the,inhibition of anger (thOugh not to moral extensi'vely (see review by Hoffman, 1977). The findings internalization, as noted earlier). suggest that moral internalization is fostered in seve I Beginning with Freud it has been assumed that chil- ways. One of the post effective, is the parents' usef dren identify with, and thusio some extentodopek, the inductive discipline techniques. These techniques d parents' ways of evaluating one's own.behamior. Psy- onstrate the harmful, consequences of the child's behavior choanalytic write'is, account for this in terms of anxiety for others, eitherldirectly ("If you keep pushing him, ot,rer physical attack or loss of the parent's love.. To he* fell down and cry")- or indirectly ( "Don't yell at reduce anxiety, the child tries to be like the parentto him. He was only trying to help"). They become more adopt, insofar as;possible, the patent's behavioral man- complex as, the child grows older, and may often'include nerisms, thoughts, feelings, and even the capacity for suggestions of reparative acts such as apologies. Moral 'self-punishment and guilt over violating -a moral stand- internalization is also fostered by the parent's frequent ard. For Other writers, the child identifies in order to expression of, affection outside the specific discipline acquire desirable parent characteristics (e.g., privileges, z- encounter. Bycontrast, amorality based primarily on control of resources, power over the child). the fear of external punishment is associated with ex- The limited body of research on this topic suggests cessive power-assertive' discipline: e.g., physical pun- that identification may contribute to aspects of mdrality ishment, deprivation of privileges, or the threat of these. reflected in the 'parent's ,words and deeds (e.g., type of The frequent use of power- assertion has been found to moral reasoning, helping others). Identification may not bgar a strong relationship to the child's aggressive be- contribute to feeling guilty after violgting moral stand-, havior toward his peers in preschool and eleMentary arils (Hoffman, 1971), but this may be because parents sNtool settings.iThere is evidence, however, that the rarely communicate their Owntguilt feelings to the child. occasional use o power assertionto let the child know Children also lack the cognitive skills needed to infer - h7 4 . 4.678SSRC FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK , .... , . .the role of others, participating in decision-making about ' guilt feeling from the parent's overt behavior. and their motives to identify with the parent may not be strong rules and how to enforce theniAre unlikely to occur enough to overcome the pain of self-criticism that ac- in interactions with adults. A related formulation is that,, Companies guilt. the parent's power over the/child and the affectional In the early 1960s, a number of experiments were bond between them operatep a powerful constraint against the child's expressionrof aggrdsion toward the . conducted on imitation, which may be a necessary part of identification (e.g., Bandura and Walters, 19634. The parent, a constraint that is ubsent in peer interactions results indicate that children will readily imitate an adult (1-1artup, forthcoming). There is evidence that Children einodel who yields to temptation (e.g.:leaves an assigned the world over express far more aggressionitoward peers e. task to watch a movie), as though the model serves to than' toward adults (Whiting and Whiting, 1975). *legitimize the deviant behavior, but are less likely to An opposite conception, however, Is that unsupervised - mutate a model, who resists temptation.. Furthermqie, peer interaction may release the child's inhibitions and when a child who makes moral judgment's' of others on undermine the effects of previous socialization in the the basis of the consequencis of their acts is exposed to home. The research on peer influences-provides some an adult model Who makes judgments on the basisof the tentative, answers concerning effects on aggression as actors intentions, the child shows an increased under- well as insights on the broader impact of pier interaction. standing of the pnnciple of intentions, and the effect First, there is support for:the wideSpread assumption - may last up to a year. that the influence of peers increases as children grow , The tentative conclusion, pending more definitive re- older, with the peak.of peer influence occurring in ad- By early adolescence search, is that identification may contribute to the child's olescence (e.g., Berndt, 197 'trig in two separate and,- - adoptipn of moral attributes that are expressed inthe most children are aware of ope parent's words or deeds and that do not require a great sometimes conflicting social tracksa peer track and an deal of self-denial. These moral attributes may then be- adult track. As for the direction of peer influencedo values?thes,. come internalized in the sense thatthe child' uses them peer groups support or undermine adult high-school as criteria ofi right and wrong in judgingothers. The answer is less clear. Most of the research on subcultures finds broad area's` of agreement .4h adult evidence thus far suggests, however, that identification, unlike discipline, may not contribute tothe use of moral values, along with modesr.differences in emphasis such rather than. standards as an evaluative perspective for examining and as greater stress on athletics and popularity Coleman, 1961). A sig-.... controlling one's own behavior. on academic achievement (e.g., nificant exeeptiop is the use of drugs by adolesceng, which is associated with the use of drugs by their friends PEER INFLUENCES° (Kandel, 1971). , Despite longstanding interest in the topic, peer interac- Regarding the role of peer interaction in socialization tion and its effects sinihe child hive only recently been of aggressioni the relevant experimental research (re- studied systematically. Much of the existing research is viewed by Hoffman, 1977; indicates .that if a child ob- descriptive. For example, the child's interest. in other' , serves a peerwho behave4.aggressively and is Dot pun- children geneitly emerges in the second year and in- islfeil, the likelihood that the observing child wilt behave , creases dramatically throughout childhood: In early aggressively is increased; if the aggressive peer is pun- childhood, there is more positive interaction between ished, there is no measurable effect. This suggests that children of the same sex than between children of the when children express aggression and are e not punished, , aopposjte sex, but there is'gradual increase 'in-mixed- "swhich often occurs in unsuperViird peer settings, the %ex interaction with age. Girls are morelikely4triielp effect may be to stimulate other children in the vicinity and share with their friends than with their acquaint- to act aggressively. Even if the children are punished, ances, whereas boys are more-likely tocompare abilities however, this may not serve, as a'deterrent to other chili and compete with .their friends than with their dren. Peer behavior (or at least its immediate imaiit) is .acquaintances. more likely to weaken dim to strengthen theinhibitions There has been relatively little research on how in- against aggression that the child has acquired in the teraction with peers affects the child's. social develop- home. , mi=nt. The dominanttheoretical orientation, advanced, " In a now classic observational study of II- year -old some fifty years ago by Piaget, is that unsupervisedin- boys in an experimdntal summer camp, Sherif et al. teraction with peers is essential for 'AM] deyelopment. -(1960 found that when .two previously unaCqtraMcite The reason, in biief, is that the absence of gross differ gr6upscompeted in team sports, consider'able animosity'_ ntials Of power provides children with the kind of ex-developed. Only working together on a superordinate , periences kieeded to develop moral norms and belief sys- goal introduced, by camp counselcirs c6uld reduce neg-. . tem,s based on mutual consent and cooperation among atiye feelings. Other more recent studies with groups gf equals. According to Piaget, these experientiestaking younger children(Pattersod,et al!,1967 and Strayer and