'* DOCUMENT RESUME . Y ED 216 888 SE 037 802 ,. TITLE The 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology 1981. Source Materials Volume 2. INSTITUTION National' Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. NO NSF - 81-42- REPORT / . PUB DATE 81 .. NOTE 455p.; For related documents, see SE.037, Q00-801. AVAILABLE FROMSuperintendent4of DocuMents, U.S, Government Printing OffiCe, Washington DC 20402. I i . EDRS. PRICE MF01 Pius Po'sage. PC Wit Available from EDRS. ° DESCRIPTORS Annotated Bibliographies; *Engineering,; Futures(of society Y; Government Role; *Long Range Planning; % ' *Needs Assessment; *Policy Foimafiot; Problems; A *Sciences; ScientifiC Personnel; Technological _., Advancement; *technplogy IDENTIFIERS National Science eoundation% IL ABSTRACT This is the second of two volpmes of source documentt cortunissioned by the National' Science Foundation in preparing the second 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology fpr transmission to the Congress. This volume consists of the views of individuals selected by the Committee on SciAnce, Engineering and Public Policy of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and the Social Stience Research Council (SSRC) and 11.Fedepal agency reports. The paperscwritten for the AAAS committee deal with public ' policy probleffilKassociated with science andfechnoiogy.°Those written for ORS focus on current developments in'sociaX and behavioral science'4isciplines. The federal 'agency papers.deal with anticipated problems, opportunities and constraints related to science, techndlogy, and public policy from the perspectives of, the emissions of1,these agencies. Also.'includel3 is a selected, annotated bibliography of published sources and a subject index to the two SourceVolumes. (Alithbp/SLH) 6 st? a O *******************;**********************************A************* * Reproductions'supplied by EDRS are the jest that can be mane' *' , * , :.* from the originAl-document. ***********'**************************4********************.*************, 4 . DOCUMENT RESUME ED 216 8I(88 SE 037 802 . ,., , o TITLE . The 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology 1981. Source Materials Volume 2. ' 4 INSTITUTION National' Science Foundatiow, Washington, D.C. REPORT NO NSF-781-42- / \. PUB DATE 81 ., . NOTE 455p.; For related docUments, see SE.037, Q00-801. AVAILABLE FROMSuperintendent4of DocuMents, U.S,. Government Printing Office, Washington., DC 20402. EDRS.PRICE MF01 Plus Pottage. PC NOt Available from EDRS. ° DESCRIPTORS Annotated Bibliographies; *Engineering,; Futures(of society Y; Government Role; *Lbng Range Planning; . ' *Needs Assessment; *Policy Soimatiob; Problems; A *Sciences; Scientific Personnel;* Technological ._, Advancement; *Technology IDENTIFI,ERS National Science FOundation% a, ABSTRACT This is the second of two volimes of source documents commissioned by the National Science Foundation in preparing the second 5-Year Outlook on Science and Technology fqr transmission to the Congress. This volume consists of the views of individuals selected by the Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and the Social Stience Research Council (SSRC) and 11.Fedepal agency reports. The paperscwritten for the AkAS committee deal with public ' policy problen*associated with science andfechnoiogy.'Those written for ORS focus on current developments in'sociaX and behavioral science' disciplines. The federal agency papers.deal with anticipated problems, opportunities and constraints related to science, techndlogy, and public policy from the perspectives of, the ,missions of.rthese agencies. Also.'included is a selected, annotated bibliography ofpublished sources and a subject index to the two Source-Volumes. (Alithb;/SLB) # a L._ O *******************;*********************************************** * *, Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be mane from the original document. , * le**********'*************************0 *******4**************************- . , ,a } Contents Obt SourcesVolume II POLICY OUTLOOJ(: SCIENCE; TECHNOLOGY AND THE ISSUES OF THE EIGHTIES o 0 A Report from the 4 American Association for the Advancement of.Science PREFACE 389 Ray Thotojon, Albert H. Teich 4 OBSERVATIONS: RACING THE TIME CONSTANTS 393 William D. Carey I APPLYING SCIENCE ANDTECHNOLOGY TO PUBLIC PURPOSE'S . 1 APPLYING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO PUBLIC PURSES: A SYNTHESIS 397 Richard A. Rettig t Introduction , , 397 Encouraging Scientific and Technological Innovation 398 'Managing the Effects of Innovation 401 Securing a Livable World 402' The Challenge to Values and InstituticTs 404 Notes and References 406 '', 2 THE INSTITUTIONAL CLIMATE FOR INNOVATION IN INDUSTRY: THE ROLE OF MANKGEMENT ATTITUDES-AND PRACTICES ... ...... 407 William J. Abernathy gild Richard S. Rosenbloom , / Introduction 44400097i American Management and Eeortomic Decline A Case in Point: Consumer Electronsic 1955-1980 Managerial Attitudes and Practices 416' Conclusion .. 418 Notes and .References 419 a 3 DECISION-MAKING WITH MODERNINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY OPPORTUNITIES A1)11) . 4-'1 . CONSTRAINTS Donald J. Hillman \ The Growth of Information and Communications Technology 421' The Rise of the Information Age , 423 Policy Questions of the Information Age 424 Inforniation Technology Forecasts 6, 426 References , 428 4 RELATINS OF SCIENCE. GOVERNMENT AND, INDUSTRY: THE . ,i 429 CASE-OFRECOMBINANT DNA Jo . Charles Weiner ,.\ Introduction -4.. ,.429 Growth of DNA Research and Concern About Risks in the 1970s , 430 Current Status of DNA Technology and Its Regulation 432 Applied Molecular Genetics in the 1980s: Policy Prospects and prOblems . 435 .c ., ConclusiOn ., 439 Notes and References 439 Bibliography t 440 , , 5 CHOOSING OUR PLEASURES AND OUR POISONS: RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE 1980s o 441' William W. Lowrance c Introduction - .c 443 .. The Evolution of Mortal Afflictions t . 444 Improvements in Assessment 45 Institutional Attention , 452. ,`. Scientific Integrity and Authority' .\ . 454 New and Underattendedattended Hazards ... , 455 Recommendations . 455 '''-` References . 456'; 4 ( , 1 II SCIENCE,TECHNOLOGY, AND 1 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY '6 SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: A SYNTHESIS 461 Eugene B. Skolmkoff IntroduCtion 461 -s. Background . 461 Key Issue Areas ..... 462 Institutions and Policy Process ...... 471 Conclusion 473 JJ Notes and References 473 7 UNITED STATES POLICY TOWARD SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE FOR MUTUAL BENEFIT 475 Charles Weiss, Jr. Introduction 475 Science, Technology, anci,Foreign Policy Towards Developing Countries . 476 Current U.S Policy and Programs 485 Conclusions N 488 Notes and References ..... 489 8 UNITED STATES AGRICULTURE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE WORLD FOOD SITUATION , ............... .\...... 491 Sylvan H. Wittwer Introduction and Background 491 Reasons for the Shifto Biologically-Based Agriculture............ .... .. 493 U.S. Agriculture find the World Food Situation 494 , The U.S. Agricultural Research System . 494 Food Production Research Priorities 496 Biological Research and Food Prdduction . 496 Human Resources for Agricultural Research , < 498 < International Agricultural Research Cent .. < 428 Conclu;ion , ,500 . Notes and References 500 . 9 TRENDS AND PROSPECTS IN WORLD POPULATION 503 Michael S. Teitelbauin I Introduction 503 Recent Population Trerids 503 Population Trends in Prospect 505 Linking PopUlation Trends to'Other.Problems 506 Linking of Population Trends to International Security Issues *507 Implications for U.S. Science and Technology 508 The Outlook 509 Notes,and References 511 16 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONSOF.M/CcERIALS AND l ENERGY RESOURCE DEPLETION 513 William A. Vogely' . , Introduction i ,,. 513 The Process of Resource Depletion , 51 ., The Concept of Resource Adequacy 515 Worldwide Distribution of Reserves ' 517. Resources and Economic Development - 518 .s. t Role of Depletion .'19 International Security Issues 519 a . Alternative Strategies 520 Summary 521 51/ References e 11 SCIENCE AND NAIIONAL DEFENSE: ASPECULATIVE ESSAY AND DISCUSSION 523 Kenneth E. Boulditig P Introduction \ 523° Science and National Defense 523 Summary of theiDiscussion 528 References 531 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ADV ISORY COMMITTEE 535 537 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS . MEMBERSHIP OF COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE,ENGINEEkING, AND PUBLIC POLICY (COSEPP) o 541 v . e ,THE FIVE YEAR OUTLOOK FORSCIENCE.AND TECHNOLOGY: SOCIAL AND'BEHAVIORAL,' SCIENCES A Report from- the 4 Social Science Research Council ° 8 INTRODUCTION 545 _ 553 1 ASSESSIN3 THESIGNIFICANCE op SOCIAL SCIENCES RESEARCH '..* o . Kenneth Prewitt 553 A Inirodation ,. - Six Principles of Social'Significance ,.,553 The Significance of Social ScienceAn Outlook 557 559' Reference . .../ 2 BEHAVIOR ANDligALTH . - .... - 561 ."'David S. Krantz, David C. Glass;"Richard Gontrada, andtealE. Miller Summary 561 Introduction 562 Efig Behavioral Factors in the Etiology and the Pathogenesis of PhysicalDisease564 Treatment and Rehabilitation Illness , 575 Outlocilt for the Next Five Years 581 Npte ., - v '585 -, 04teferecesn 585 ; I , 3 ADVANCES IN METHODS FOR LARGE-SCALESURVEYS, AND vs . EXPERIMENTS .,:. 589 . \ Judith M. Tanur a . vi Summary . ..., \I 89 Introduction , . 590 Total Survey V4riability' '` 592. Longitudinal Surveys ., 603 . Social Expenmentation ,,, ,.. , .. 607 Uses of Administrative Records 611 . And The Future? , 613 Notes , 614 References - v - . 615 4 THE LIFE-SPAN PERSPECTIVE IN SOCIAL