August 22, 2011

Energy Weekly Commodities Research Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time

We had initially assumed that Libyan production would average 250 thousand b/d next year, with a potential increase to 585 thousand b/d by the end of 2012 should the opposition gain control of the western production and export facilities. While we do not change our production forecast until we have more clarity on the situation, the recent events have increased the likelihood that Libyan production could end up closer to 585 thousand b/d, which would push back the timing on the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about 3 months.

Practically all crude production and export facilities are now reported in the hands of the opposition forces… David Greely Libyan opposition forces advanced into Tripoli over the weekend, raising (212) 902-2850 [email protected] Goldman Sachs & Co. the possibility that crude oil production normalizes in coming months. News reports suggest that the opposition forces now control the vast Stefan Wieler, CFA majority of all oil Libyan production, refining and export facilities. (212) 357-7486 [email protected] Goldman Sachs & Co. … increasing the likelihood that Libyan production might exceed our forecast on a 12-18 month horizon… Damien Courvalin (212) 902-3307 [email protected] We had initially assumed that Libyan production would average Goldman Sachs & Co. 250 thousand b/d next year, with a potential increase to 585 thousand b/d by the end of 2012 should the opposition gain control of the western Johan Spetz production and export facilities. We continue to believe that any increase in +44(20)7552-5946 [email protected] Goldman Sachs International supply over the coming weeks is limited to our production forecast and bound to the eastern production that has been long under opposition control. However, the sudden takeover of the largely intact western fields increases the likelihood that production on a 12-18 month horizon might be closer to 585 thousand b/d. This might be partly offset by disappointments in the ramp up of current production which continues to languish around

60 thousand b/d, well below expectations and consistent with our view that it will be challenging to bring the shut-in production back online.

..which could push back the timing on the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about 3 months

On net, while we do not change our production forecast until we have more clarity on the situation, the recent developments have increased the risk that Libyan production would turn out to be 250-350 thousand b/d above our current forecast by the end of 2012, which would in turn push back the timing on the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about 3 months.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC see the end of the text. For other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research August 22, 2011

Hedging and trading recommendations

Petroleum

Hedging recommendations

Consumers: With world economic growth continuing to drive oil demand growth well in excess of non-OPEC production growth, the oil market continues to draw on inventories and OPEC spare capacity in order to balance. In our view, it is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supply. Consequently, we believe the recent market correction provides a good opportunity for consumers to begin to hedge their forward oil exposure.

Refiners: Refining margins have recently shown counter-seasonal strength. However, this strength largely owes to the local weakness in WTI. As we expect the spread between WTI and Brent to narrow from current levels, we also expect product cracks to weaken. Further, we maintain that refining margins will remain under pressure owing to the large increase in refining capacity in Asia. As a result, we view any renewed rise in long-dated refinery margins in 2011 as a selling opportunity for refinery hedgers. For 2012 and beyond, we believe that crude will be the bottleneck in the system, rather than refining; this would squeeze margins from the crude side through backwardation, suggesting that refiners should also look for potential time-spread hedges.

Producers: While the risk-reward trade-offs for producer risk management programs have diminished with the recent market correction, additional economic disappointments could generate more downside in the near term. We recommend that producers look at option strategies to hedge against this risk. However, we expect supply-demand balances to continue to move to critically tight levels in 2012, with prices above recent levels by next year. Consequently, we think opportunities for producer hedging longer term are less attractive.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2 August 22, 2011

Current trading recommendations

Current Current trades First recommended Initial value Current Value profit/(loss)1 Long Brent Crude Oil Buy December 2012 ICE Brent Crude Oil May 23, 2011 - Energy Watch $105.16/bbl $105.68/bbl $0.52/bbl

Long Copper Buy June 2012 LME Copper May 23, 2011 - Commodity Watch $8,804/mt $8,850/mt $46/mt

Long Zinc Buy December 2012 LME Zinc May 23, 2011 - Commodity Watch $2,189/mt $2,279/mt $90/mt

Long UK Natural Gas Buy Q4 2012 ICE UK NBP Natural Gas April 26, 2011 - Natural Gas Weekly 70.8 p/th 70.5 p/th (0.2 p/th)

Long Soybeans Buy November 2011 CBOT Soybean November 18, 2010 - Agriculture Update $11.60/bu $13.64/bu $2.04/bu Rolled into a long Nov-11 CBOT soybean $14.0/bu call on 3-Aug-11 with a realized gain of $1.68/bu

Long Gold Buy December 2011 COMEX Gold October 11, 2010 - Precious Metals $1,364.2/toz $1,852.2/toz $488.0/toz

¹As of close on August 19, 2011. Inclusive of all previous rolling profits/losses.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 3 August 22, 2011

Price actions, volatilities and forecasts

Prices and monthly changes1 Volatilities (%) and monthly changes2 Historical Prices Price Forecasts3

units 19 Aug Change Implied2 Change Realized2 Change 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3m 6m 12m Energy WTI Crude Oil $/bbl 87.58  35.4 4.83 42.3 7.9 78.88 78.05 76.21 85.24 94.60 102.34 111.00 115.00 126.50 -9.66

Brent Crude Oil $/bbl 110.60  35.9 4.22 34.3 -1.9 77.37 79.41 76.96 87.45 105.52 116.99 117.00 120.00 130.00 -6.66

RBOB Gasoline $/gal 2.87  34.5 4.09 37.9 -0.1 2.11 2.17 2.002.22 2.68 3.10 2.89 2.95 3.35 -0.26

NYMEX Heating Oil $/gal 2.96  32.43.43 30.0 -6.9 2.05 2.11 2.06 2.36 2.82 3.05 3.12 3.26 3.48 -0.16

NYMEX Nat. Gas $/mmBtu 3.93  33.7 -1.52 23.8 -8.7 4.99 4.35 4.23 3.98 4.20 4.38 4.25 4.50 4.00 -0.61

UK NBP Nat. Gas p/th 52.65  20.6 -2.77 17.1 -0.8 33.35 37.48 42.68 51.74 56.77 58.04 76.00 75.00 78.00 -1.96

Industrial Metals4

LME Aluminum $/mt 2395 23.8 0.82 20.9 2.7 2199 2122 2110 2365 2531 2618 2700 2850 2900 -99

LME Copper $/mt 8965 28.0 1.53 25.1 8.4 7274 7042 7278 8614 9629 9163 9450 9800 11000 -707

LME Nickel $/mt 21950 33.3 -1.46 35.5 14.4 20163 22431 21271 23619 26926 24191 24000 24000 23000 -2205

LME Zinc $/mt 2215 31.4 -0.66 36.3 14.8 2307 2052 2043 2333 2414 2271 2400 2500 2700 -163

Precious Metals

London Gold $/troy oz 1791 20.1 4.34 19.4 4.5 1110 1197 1228 1370 1388 1508 1645 1730 1860 201

London Silver $/troy oz 40.0  41.3 3.48 39.8 -3.1 16.9 18.3 19.0 26.4 31.9 38.0 27.5 28.9 31.1 1.9

Agriculture

CBOT Wheat cent/bu 728 33.1 -1.29 37.4 -21.7 496 467 653 707 786 745 750 790 750 33

CBOT Soybean cent/bu 1357 21.4 -1.37 16.3 0.9 955 957 1035 1245 1379 1361 1375 1400 1400 -29

CBOT Corn cent/bu 712 34.1 -0.05 29.1 -29.7 370 355 422 562 670 731 735 735 700 10

NYBOT Cotton cent/lb 108 n/a n/a 40.5 2.8 76 81 87 128 179 156 100 100 100 7

NYBOT Coffee cent/lb 263 n/a n/a 26.4 -2.6 134 140 174 205 257 271 235 200 175 11

NYBOT Cocoa $/mt 3017 n/a n/a 21.8 -6.5 3070 2987 2863 2856 3307 3043 2700 2700 2700 -151

NYBOT Sugar cent/lb 29.5 38.0 3.15 38.2 -7.7 24.4 15.5 20.2 29.0 30.5 24.5 25.0 20.0 20.0 0.5

CME Live Cattle cent/lb 115.9 n/a n/a 13.1 -8.9 90.5 93.7 95.0 100.5 111.2 110.7 120.0 130.0 120.0 5.3

CME Lean Hog cent/lb 87.4 n/a n/a 64.4 38.7 69.7 81.9 79.7 71.2 86.2 93.6 95.0 95.0 95.0 -11.6 1 Monthly change is difference of close on last business day and close a month ago. 2 Monthly volatility change is difference of average volatility over the past month and that of the prior month (3-mo ATM implied volatility, 1-mo realized volatility). 3 Price forecasts refer to prompt contract price forecasts in 3-, 6-, and 12-months time. 4 Based on LME three month prices.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 4 August 22, 2011

Control over Libyan oil shifting, but full ramp-up may take time

Brent crude oil prices dropped more than $3.00/bbl at one point in electronic trading over the weekend, following the latest developments in Libya. Opposition forces have advanced into the Libyan capital of Tripoli and are reported to now control practically all crude production areas as well as the export facilities in the country. Further, while some of the facilities have likely suffered extensive damage over the past months, little additional damage was reported over the last few days when opposition forces captured the remaining oil facilities that were still under the control of Qadaffi’s forces. These developments raise the question of whether crude oil production in the region as well as exports can normalize in coming months.

We had initially assumed that Libyan production would average 250 thousand b/d next year, with a potential increase to 585 thousand b/d by the end of 2012 should the opposition gain control of the western production and export facilities. We continue to believe that any increase in supply over the coming weeks is limited to our production forecast and bound to the eastern production that has been long under opposition control. However, the sudden takeover of the largely intact western fields, increases the likelihood that production on a 12-18 month horizon might be closer 585 thousand b/d. This might be partly offset by disappointment in the ramp up of current production which continues to languish around 60 thousand b/d, well below expectations and consistent with our view that it will be challenging to bring the shut-in production back online.

On net, while we do not change our production forecast until we have more clarity on the situation, the recent developments have increased the risk that Libyan production would turn out to be 250-350 thousand b/d above our current forecast by the end of 2012, which would in turn push back the timing on the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about 3 months.

Production rebound likely slow, despite opposition control of most oil facilities According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Libyan oil production fell from 1.58 million b/d in January to just 60 thousand b/d in May, while exports stopped entirely (see Exhibit 1). With practically all crude production areas as well as export facilities in the hands of the opposition forces, the question now arises how fast crude exports can resume. Over the weekend, a spokesperson of the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, which is under opposition control, announced that Libya will be able to resume up to 180-250 thousand b/d of production within 2-3 weeks once security allows it. While the timeline could turn out to be optimistic, the volume is certainly achievable in our view.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 5 August 22, 2011

Exhibit 1: Libya’s total petroleum production has dropped to just 60 thousand b/d Thousand b/d

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007

Source: IEA, GS Global ECS Research.

Production in the East is still expected to return first… In our Energy Weekly from June 21, 2011 (“When oil demand picks up, will Libyan supplies be able to follow?”), we argued that, even should political conditions allow it, Libyan oil supplies would likely be limited to at most 600 thousand b/d in the short/medium term, with 200 thousand b/d likely exported from the port of Marsa El-Hariga.

In addition to the exports via the port of Marsa-El Hariga, we expect that about 155 thousand b/d of crude from the eastern fields could be exported via the port of Zuetina after some repair has been carried out (see Exhibit 2). However, beyond that, the remaining other oil ports as well as some of the production facilities have likely been severely damaged and a resumption of export might prove to be very challenging, even as the rebels have now taken control of most of the facilities. For more details see our Energy Weekly from June 21, 2011 (“When oil demand picks up, will Libyan supplies be able to follow?”)

One example of how challenging these repairs can be is the opposition’s attempts to repair damage inflicted to a pumping station for a 400 km pipeline between the Sarir oil field and the port of Marsa El-Hariga. This pumping station was reportedly damaged in April by Qaddafi’s forces and production had to be interrupted at the Sarir field. Production has still not restarted, even though all the facilities involved have the benefit of lying deep in opposition-controlled territory and have been under the control of the opposition forces since nearly the very beginning of the conflict. In our view this illustrates how difficult it is to bring the shut-in Libyan production and exports back online, especially given the absence of foreign engineers. And although improvements to the security situation could help speed up the repair process significantly, we continue to expect that the restart of large volumes of Libyan production and exports will prove to be challenging.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 6 August 22, 2011

Exhibit 2: Libyan crude oil exports via the eastern port of Marsa el-Hariga are still likely to be among the first to resume

Bouri FSO

To Italy Bouri Farwah FPSO Al Jurf Mellitah term. Zawiya term. Al Bayda Tripo li Darnah Wazen Misrata Marsa el-Hariga term. Benghazi Al Marj Nalut Sirte Zintan Bani Es Sider term. Tob ruk Zueitina Ras Lanuf Dahra Brega Amna /Amal Nasser Intisar Brega Abu Attifel Gialo Hun Sabah Jalu Adiri Waha

Sabha Sarir

El-Sharara Elephant (El-Feel) Ghat Al Qatrun Al Jawf

Pipeline Oilfield Offshore oilfield Loading terminal

Source: GS Global ECS Research.

…while production in the West could benefit from the sudden capture over the weekend

Oil production facilities in the Western part of the country had mostly been under the control of the Qaddafi government until a couple days ago and have so far been much less affected by the fighting. The two offshore streams Al-Jurf and El Bouri (total 90 thousand b/d) have their own offshore loading terminals and there have not been any reports that they were affected by the fighting and we expect that about 90 thousand b/d of production could resume over the short to medium term. We further expect that about 140 thousand b/d of crude exports via the Mellitah terminal could also resume over the short to medium term, bringing total potential exports from the western area to 230 thousand b/d over the short term.

However, potential exports from the City of Zawiya pose a small upside risk to our estimates. Specifically, the city, including an export loading terminal and a 120 thousand b/d refinery, was taken by opposition forces on Thursday, August 18, with no reports of recent damage to these facilities – although damage had been reported in earlier disputes for Zawiya. While news reports indicate that a fierce battle over the refinery took place over the past days, including NATO airstrikes against armed vehicles, the opposition claims that the refinery will resume production within days. However, while the potential exports from the Zawiya loading terminal poses some small risk to our previous estimate of around 600 thousand b/d total potential short-term export volume, we expect that any production from the Zawiya refinery would likely be absorbed by domestic consumption.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 7 August 22, 2011

Exhibit 3: We expect that, even should political and security conditions allow it, Libyan oil exports would likely be limited to at most 600 thousand b/d in the short / medium term

Cap. Stream Fields Location Cont. Producers kb/d Attacked Loading port Cont. Attacked

EASTERN FIELDS Abu Attilfel Abu Attifel Central East R Eni / NOC 117 no reports Zueitina R Yes Amal, Ghani, Jofra, NOC / Petro‐Canada / Amna (Amal) Tibisti, En Naga Central East R Wintershall (BASF) 180 no reports Ras Lanuf Q Yes Brega (in Nafoora / Brega Augila complex) North Central R NOC 72 no reports Marsa el‐Brega Q Yes Waha, Samah, Dahra, NOC / ConocoPhilips / Es Sider Es Sider Gialo South Central Q / R Marathon / Hess 333 Yes Terminal Q Yes

Sarir Sarir Central East R NOC 198 Yes (pipeline) Marsa el‐Hariga R no reports Nasser / Attahadi / Sirtica Assamud North Central N.A. NOC 77 Likely Marsa el‐Brega Q Yes Zueitina Intisar North East R NOC / Occidental / OMV 38 no reports Zueitina R Yes WESTERN FIELDS Total / NOC / Wintershall Al‐Jurf Al‐Jurf North West Q (BASF) 41 no reports Farwah FPSO Q no reports Bouri El‐Bouri North West Q Eni / NOC 50 no reports Bouri FSO Q no reports Repsol / Total / OMV / Zawia/Zawiya El‐Sharara NC‐115, NC‐186 South West Q Statoil 340 no reports Terminal Q Yes Mellitah Mellitah El Feel, Wafa Central West Q NOC / Eni / KNOC / Other 140 no reports Terminal Q no reports

Total 1584

Source: Energy Intelligence Research, GS Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 8 August 22, 2011

US oil stocks US crude oil stocks Million barrels Million barrels

End-of-Week Change 400

Product 12-Aug-11 15-Jul-11 13-Aug-10 4Wk Year 2009 380 2010 Total Petrol 1084.0 1073.7 1130.4 10.3 -46.4

Crude Oil 354.0 351.7 354.2 2.3 -0.2 360 2011 Total Product 730.0 721.9 776.2 8.0 -46.2 Mogas 210.1 212.5 223.3 -2.4 -13.3 340 Jet Fuel 44.3 45.1 48.0 -0.8 -3.8 320 Distillate 154.0 148.5 174.2 5.5 -20.2 2008 Resid 37.4 37.2 41.0 0.2 -3.6 300 Other 216.3 213.0 210.6 3.3 5.7 280 Source: DOE.

260 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: DOE.

US total hydrocarbon stocks US distillate stocks Million barrels Million barrels 1200 180 2010 2011 170 1150

160 2009 2011 1100 150 2010 1050 2009 140

1000 2008 130

120 950

110 2008 900 100

850 90

800 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: DOE. Source: DOE.

US motor gasoline stocks US residual fuel stocks Million barrels Million barrels

245 50 2011

235 2008 2010 45 2011 2010 2008 225

40 215 2009

205 35

195 2009 30

185

175 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: DOE. Source: DOE.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 9 August 22, 2011

WTI forward curve WTI-Brent forward curve US$/bbl US$/bbl 110.00 0.00

105.00 -5.00

100.00 -10.00

95.00 -15.00

90.00 -20.00

85.00 -25.00

80.00 -30.00 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13

19Aug11 12Aug11 22Jul11 19Aug11 12Aug11 22Jul11

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Historical realized WTI volatility Historical WTI prices Percentage US$/bbl 110% 155.00

100% 135.00 90%

80% 115.00

70% 95.00

60%

75.00 50%

40% 55.00

30% 35.00 20%

10% 15.00 Jan 00 Apr 01 Jul 02 Oct 03 Jan 05 Apr 06 Jul 07 Oct 08 Jan 10 Apr 11 Jan-00 Apr-01 Jul-02 Oct-03 Jan-05 Apr-06 Jul-07 Oct-08 Jan-10 Apr-11

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

321 NYMEX forward curve NYMEX heating oil crack forward curve US$/bbl US$/bbl 42.00 45.00

37.00 40.00

32.00 35.00

27.00

30.00

22.00

25.00 17.00

20.00 12.00

7.00 15.00 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13

19Aug11 12Aug11 22Jul11 19Aug11 12Aug11 22Jul11

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 10 August 22, 2011

Historical NYMEX heating oil crack prices RBOB crack forward curve US$/bbl US$/bbl

40.00 45.00

40.00 35.00

35.00 30.00

30.00 25.00 25.00

20.00 20.00

15.00 15.00

10.00 10.00

5.00 5.00

0.00 0.00 -5.00 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Jan-00 Apr-01 Jul-02 Oct-03 Jan-05 Apr-06 Jul-07 Oct-08 Jan-10 Apr-11 19Aug11 12Aug11 22Jul11

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Historical RBOB crack prices USGC 1.0 percent fuel oil crack forward curve US$/bbl US$/bbl

16.00 45.00

40.00 14.00

35.00 12.00 30.00

10.00 25.00

20.00 8.00

15.00 6.00 10.00

4.00 5.00

0.00 2.00

-5.00 0.00 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 -10.00 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 19Aug11 12Aug11 22Jul11

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 11 August 22, 2011

Reg AC

We, David Greely, Stefan Wieler, CFA, Damien Courvalin and Johan Spetz, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm's business or client relationships.

Disclosure Appendix

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This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Goldman Sachs & Co., the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (http://www.sipc.org). Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. Transactions cost may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to http://360.gs.com. Disclosure information is also available at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282. Copyright 2011 Goldman Sachs. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 12