Disaster Risk Management Public Disclosure Authorized in the Transport Sector A Review of Concepts and International Case Studies June 2015 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Acknowledgements This report was prepared by a World Bank team led by Ziad Nakat, Senior Transport Specialist, and was executed by a consulting team at IMC Worldwide including Raphaelle Moor, Mike Broadbent, Jonathan Essex, Steve Fitzmaurice, Mo Hamza, Kanaks Pakeer, Andre Steele, Tim Stiff, and John White. Photo credits Page 3 / USFWS Mountain Prairie available from Flickr under Creative Commons license Page 4 / Angie Chung available from Flickr under Creative Commons license Page 11 / Hafiz Issadeen available from Flickr under Creative Commons license Page 19 / Rick Scavetta, U.S. Army Africa from Flickr under Creative Commons license Page 23 / Chris Updegrave available from Flickr under Creative Commons license, February 9, 2008 Page 24 / Jay Baker at Reisterstown, Maryland Gov Pics available from Flickr under Creative Commons license Page 27 / MTA available under Creative Commons license, October 30, 2012 Page 28 / Joe Lewis available under Creative Commons license Page 31 / Andre Steele Page 38 / John Murphy available from Flickr under Creative Commons license Page 42 / Geof Sheppard available from Flickr under Creative Commons license, February 24, 2014 Page 53 / Martin Luff available from Flickr under Creative Commons license 2 Glossary LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design AASHTO American Association of State LLFA Lead Local Flood Authorities Highway and Transportation Officials LRF Local Resilience Forums ADB Asian Development Bank MCA4 Multi-criteria analysis for climate APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate change ATC Automatic Train Control MPO Metropolitan Planning Organisation BRR Badan Rehabilitasi dan Rekonstruksi MTA Metropolitan Transit Authority CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis NARUC National Association of Regulatory CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Utility Commissioners Facility NHIA Natural Hazard Impact Assessment CDB Caribbean Development Bank NFIP National Flood Insurance Program CRR Community Risk Register NGO Non-governmental organisation DBST Double-Bound Surface Treatment NHT Natural Hazards Team DFID Department for International Development NJ New Jersey DOT Department of Transport NPV Net Present Value DRM Disaster Risk Management NYCDOT New York City Department of Transportation DRMP Disaster Response Management Plan NYS New York State DWR Disaster Waste Recovery O&M Operations and Maintenance EIB European Investment Bank PIP Policies, Institutions and Processes EIRR Economic internal rate of return PPP Public-private partnership EME2 Enrobé à Module Élevé 2 RIA Regulatory Impact Assessment EPSRC Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council SADC Southern Africa Development Community EU European Union SARCOF Southern Africa Regional Climate FFSL Fortified for Safer Living Outlook Forum SCIRT Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure FHWA Federal Highway Administration Rebuild Team FMTAC First Mutual Transportation Assurance SCTIB South Carolina Transportation Company Infrastructure Bank FUTURENET Future Resilient Transport Systems SUDS Sustainable Urban Drainage System GE General Electric TA Technical Assistance GLA Greater London Authority TAM Transportation Asset Management GIS Graphical Information System TIGER Transportation Investment Generating HOV3+ High-occupancy vehicle (3 person) Economic Recovery TIP Transportation Improvement Program HRA Hot Rolled Asphalt TTL Task Team Leader IBHS Institute for Business and Home Safety ToR Terms of Reference ICT Information and communications Technology UK United Kingdom IDF Intensity-Duration-Frequency USA United States of America INA Infrastructure Needs Assessment UNISDR The United Nations Office for Disaster IPA International Performance Assessment Risk Reduction VfM Value for Money IMC IMC Worldwide Ltd. WB World Bank 3 Table of Contents Executive Summary 5 Part 1: Introduction 14 Part 2: Transport Infrastructure Systems 17 Part 3: Risk and Resilience 20 Part 4: Disaster Resilience and Risk Assessment in Transport Systems 26 Part 5: Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment and Management 33 Part 6: Emergency Response and Risk Reduction 53 Part 7: Post-Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction 61 Bibliography 68 Annex 77 4 Executive Summary cascade throughout the system. Background The following are guiding principles that should inform the identification, planning and design of Natural hazards regularly impact the performance of transport projects by donors and the owners, transport systems and their ability to provide safe, investors, and managers of transport infrastructure in reliable, efficient, and accessible means of transport developing countries: for all citizens, especially in emergency situations. Despite the frequency of natural hazards, and the 1. Shift from an “asset-based” approach, threat of more extreme and variable weather as a which sees transport as a set of discrete assets, result of climate change, there is still no systematic to a “systems-based” approach, which looks at approach to addressing natural disasters in the the interactions between the technical, social, transport sector and there is little knowledge that has economic, and organizational components of a been disseminated on this topic. This report offers a transport system over time. A common failure framework for understanding the principles of characteristic that emerged from the case studies resilience in transport. It provides practical examples, reviewed was the failure of systems to be treated and gathered from an extensive secondary literature planned as systems, resulting in significant damage review and interviews, of the measures that transport to transport infrastructure. The case studies have professional can implement in transport projects. shown that critical infrastructure components had different capabilities, redundancy was lacking, levels This report represents a first effort within a broader of protection were incomplete or missing, the activity to mainstream resilience in transport projects. responsibilities for infrastructure were weak and Follow up work will focus on i) producing a short and divided, and there was a misplaced optimism in the practical road map for World Bank Task Team “robustness” of infrastructure to withstand all Leaders and Transport professionals to guide actual hazards. When planning and designing resilient steps to mainstream resilience in transport projects, infrastructure, the focus should not just be on the and ii) creating more linkages between this work and artefact but also the people and processes, the broader ongoing work within the World Bank on governance structures, resources, and knowledge disaster risk management frameworks, and with that set and shape its resilience. The implication is references to relevant external sources. that the opportunities to introduce and mainstream resilience in the transport sector begin upstream, with the institutions, policies, regulations, processes, and Approach for mainstreaming resilience practices that determine where, how, and what infrastructure is planned and designed. Rather than Transport is a complex adaptive system with multiple talk about a “resilient bridge” we should talk about a modes and assets at different stages of their lifecycle, “resilient crossing” (RUSI conference 2014). Instead and upstream and downstream interdependencies of first looking at the transport asset and asking how with other infrastructure systems, including water, to make it resilient, the first questions to ask are: What Information Communications and Technology (ICT), is the purpose of this project? Is it in the right place? energy, and the built environment. These manmade Is it at the right time? And what is the resilience of the assets interact in turn with the natural assets in their rest of the system within which it sits? A system is environment. All these manmade and natural assets and systems are delivered, maintained, operated, and only as strong as its weakest link; be this physical, regulated by a range of agents and institutions. The environmental, social, economic or institutional. complex interactions between these different physical, social, economic, and institutional elements are often non-linear, chaotic, and unpredictable. Unknown risks can also emerge over time and 5 Table 1: Risk versus resilience approaches (adapted from Park et al., 2012) Risk management Resilience Risk analysis calculates the probability that Resilience analysis improves the system’s response to surprises and accepts uncertainty, known hazards will have known impacts incomplete knowledge, and changing conditions Bottom-up analysis assesses impact of hazards Top-down analysis assesses interdependencies on components’ critical functionality and interactions at a system level Assesses the impact at one point in time Includes a temporal dimension Minimizes probabilities of failure Minimizes consequences of failure Strategies include robustness, strengthening, Strategies involve adaption, innovation, flexibility, learning, diversity, redundancy, safe oversizing failure coordination, information sharing, and engagement between all these stakeholders are needed to 2. Operationalize the concept of resilience mainstream resilience throughout the transport and use this to complement risk analysis when sector. The stakeholders are diverse and could planning, appraising,