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3-NOV 1998 institute of •< < - rnent studies INDICATOSOUTH AFRICRA EDITORIAL BOARD

SIMON BEKKER Department of Sociology, University of Stellenbosh

RICHARD HUMPHRIES Centre for Policy Studies,

ALEXANDER JOHNSTON Department of Politics, University of Natal, Durban

MESHACK KH0SA Centre for African Research and Transformation, Durban

ANTOINETTE LOUW Institute for Security Studies, Johannesburg

JULIAN MAY Centre for Social and Development Studies, University of Natal, Durban

VALERIE M0LLER Institute for Social and Economic Research, Rhodes University

VISHNU PADAYACHEE Centre for Social and Development Studies, University of Natal, Durban

WILLIAM SAUNDERSON-MEYER Division of Communication and Publicity, University of Natal, Durban

LAWRENCE SCHLEMMER South African Institute of Race Relations, Johannesburg

INDICATOR PROJECT SOUTH AFRICA CENTRE FOR SOCIAL AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF NATAL , DURBAN 4041

EDITOR: Ted Leggett ADMINISTRATION AND MARKETING: Jenny Pillay PUBLISHER: William Saunderson-Meyer PRODUCTION: Q ARTWORKS Publishing & Communications ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER: Fran Fearnley PRINTING: Natal Witness

Subscription information: Telephone: (031) 260 2525 Fax: (031) 260 2813 e-mail: [email protected] Editorial information: Telephone: (031) 260 1375 Fax: (031) 260 2359 e-mail: [email protected] Web site:http://www.und.ac.za/indicator

IDS

r 088607 POLITICAL A PAPER TIGER? THE DECLINE OF THE SACP M 0 N 1 T " 0 R PATRICK LAURENCE BETWEEN UNILATERALISM AND THE DESPITE IMPRESSIVE MEMBERSHIP ROLLS, THE CULTURE OF SOLIDARITY: SACP IS PROVING TO BE A PAPER TIGER. THE SACP THE NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT AFTER WILL BE OUTFLANKED ON THE LEFT BY A POPULIST DURBAN PARTY IF IT DOES NOT RAISE ITS VOICE IN DEFENCE OF THE POOR. ALEXANDER JOHNSTON THE TASK OF THE NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT ECONOMIC REMAINS THE SAME IN THE POST- MONITOR WORLD: TO FIND A WAY IN WHICH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CAN HAVE A VOICE IN INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: WHY WE POLITICS AND ECONOMICS. SHOULD CARE, WHAT WE SHOULD DO

PATRICK BOND POLITICAL INTOLERANCE AND ETHNICITY: INVESTIGATING SOCIAL IDENTITY THE RECENT INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS GIVES LEADERS IN SOUTH AFRICA A RARE OPPORTU- JAMES L GIBSON NITY TO CHALLENGE THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS. AMANDA GOUWS The TIME HAS COME TO DEMAND A NEW SYSTEM THAT SERVES HUMAN NEEDS, NOT FINANCIAL PROFIT. STUDIES OF ETHNIC TOLERANCE HAVE SHOWN SOUTH AFRICANS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE CONCERN FOR THE RIGHTS OF OTHER GROUPS. GREATER LESS IDEOLOGY, MORE COMMONSENSE: GROUP ATTACHMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH GREATER FINANCIAL GLOBALISATION AND THE POLITICAL INTOLERANCE. CURRENCY CRISIS

VISHNU PADAYACHEE A FOR AFRIKANERS ALTHOUGH SOUTH AFRICA STOOD OUT FAIRLY WELL

CHRIS JOOSTE AGAINST THE FIRST WAVE OF THE EMERGING MAR-

LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF THE AFRIKANERS IN KETS CRISIS, UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT BOTH GLOBAL SOUTH AFRICA WOULD BE INTERESTED IN A VOLK- AND LOCAL CONDITIONS MADE IT RIPE FOR SPECU-

STAAT. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES OF OPINON LATION. AMONG AFRIKANERS SHOULD NOT BE USED TO

JUSTIFY INACTION on THE PART OF THE GOVERN- MENT. DEVELOPMENT M 0 0 R

DRAWING THE LINE: AIDS AND DEVELOPMENT: NO EASY BORDER DISPUTES AND ELECTORAL ANSWERS POLITICS ALAN WHITESIDE KAREN MICHAEL

KUSENIDLAMINI ASSESSING THE PRESENT IMPACT OF AIDS STRIC-

THREE SETS OF POLITICALLY-CHARGED DISPUTES TLY IN TERMS OF ECONOMICS CAN BE MISLEADING.

HAVE EMERGED OVER THE PROVINCIAL BORDERS, SOME INDICATORS MAY IMPROVE, SOME DROP DIS- WHICH WERE ESTABLISHED IN A RUSHED AND PRORTIONATELY, AND DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS MAY UNREPRESENTATIVE PROCESS. ACTUALLY SPEED THE SPREAD OF THE DISEASE.

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 CONTENTS

VIRGIN TESTING: LEGAL ONE ANSWER TO THE AIDS EPIDEMIC? MONITOR

GEORGINA HAMILTON

THOUSANDS OF YOUNG WOMEN AND GIRLS ARE EMPLOYMENT EQUITY:

BEING ATTRACTED TO A REVAMPED ZULU RITUAL - LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE OR NECESSARY THEY ARE HAVING THEIR VIRGINITY PUBLICLY EVIL? "TESTED". OPPONENTS TO THE PRACTICE POINT

OUT THAT IT IS UNRELIABLE AND THAT IT STIGMA-' ADELE THOMAS

TISES VICTIMS OF SEXUAL ABUSE. As THE EMPLOYMENT EQUITY ACT BECOMES LAW, IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT EMPLOYERS EMBRACE THIS CHANGE AND MAKE USE OF DIVERSITY. THIS MUST CHALLENGE TO TRADITION: BE INITIATED FROM THE TOP DOWN, AND ENTAILS MEDICAL COMPLICATIONS OF TRADITIONAL ARTICULATING "SOUND BUSINESS REASONS" LINK- XHOSA CIRCUMCISION ING DIVERSITY TO OTHER BUSINESS GOALS.

GRAEME MEINTJES

THE MODERN MANIFESTATION OF THIS ANCIENT RITUAL HAS BEEN LINKED TO DEATHS, INJURIES AND PENILE MUTILATIONS. THE MODERN CEREMO- NY HAS TAKEN ON OVERTONES OF MACHISMO AND INDICATOR PROJECT SOUTH AFRICA produces ETHNIC NATIONALISM. Indicator South Africa and Crime & Conflict. II is based at the Centre for Social and Development Studies at (lie University of Natal. Opinions PARTICIPATIVE DEMOCRACY AND RURAL expressed are not necessarily those of the Editorial Committee and should not be taken to represent the LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN KWAZULU-NATAL policies of companies or organisations which are donor members of Indicator Project South Africa. MARK BUTLER

RURAL PEOPLE SUPPORT HAVING TRADITIONAL Copyright for all materials herein is held by AUTHORITIES IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT, BUT THEY INDICATOR PROJECT SOUTH AFRICA. Permission to publish or reproduce any part of this publication DO NOT THINK THE SHOULD PARTICIPATE IN VOT- must be obtained from the publisher. ING, POLITICAL DEBATES, AND FINANCIAL DECI- SIONS. THEY ALSO FEEL THAT REPRESENTATIVES SHOULD BE ELECTED AT A LOCAL LEVEL FROM CAN- DIDATES WHO ARE KNOWN FOR THEIR COMMITMENT TO THE COMMUNITY.

COMPARATIVE M N I T 0 R

NIGERIA'S CONTESTED DEMOCRATISATION: ADJUSTMENT, AUTHORITARIANISM, AND "CIVIL SOCIETY"

FRANCO BARCHIESI

NIGERIA'S STRUGGLE CALLS INTO QUESTION THE LINK BETWEEN DEMOCRATISATION AND THE GROWTH OF CIVIL SOCIETY. THE CRISIS OF CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE CRISIS OF STATE INSTITUTIONS ARE, UNDER NEOLIBERALISM AND STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT POLICIES, ULTIMATELY COMPLEMEN- COVER ILLUSTRATION BY TARY PROCESSES. MICHELLE MERRIFIELD

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OARTWORKS/1JN0898/3 EDITORIAL

ace has become a distasteful subject for eager to down even before the last hangover has most sensible South Africans. To recol- faded. lect that so much pain was caused over In South Africa, ethnic identity has trans- R formed itself into an odd bundle of entitlements. so many years by something so utterly arbitrary and trivial is a profoundly nauseating experi- The claim of black South Africans to a better ence. But seems to have ensured that way of life is not premised solely on human cleaning up after the race error will be an inte- rights or civil delict or an ancestral claim to the gral part of South African life for the foreseeable land and its fruits, but on a curious and ill- future. defined amalgam of all of these. The continued Though largely discredited as a scientific call for a volkstaat is likewise tied to the pecu- concept, the sociological reality of ethnic iden- liar idea that property rights can arise out eth- tity is not similarly susceptible to rational dis- nicity. All this seems rather backward in a proof. If indeed it is possible at all, uprooting world where the relevance of national identity the tendency of people to identify with those of is coming increasingly into question. a similar genetic origin would take many gener- This issue of Indicator looks at the continu- ations, assuming we could agree that such a goal ing role ethnicity is playing in the rainbow is one worthy of pursuing. nation of God. Gibson and Gouws gauge the South Africa has opted for the "multicultur- degree of success we have had in synthesising a al" rather than the "assimilationist" model of national identity while maintaining distinct cul- integration, in which 11 languages are nominally tural groupings, a balancing act that proved too acknowledged at the same time that an unapolo- much for.the former Soviet Union in its 70 years getically Western model of development is of struggle. Adele Thomas looks at the most advanced. The "" ideal is controversial attempt to compel inter-ethnic aimed at finding international competitiveness cooperation - the Employment Equity Bill - and through diversity, but too often compromises on urges that business make a virtue of necessity. both ends ensure that we achieve neither goal, Whatever one thinks of culturally sensitive as many of those involved in participative development, it is certainly true that the people development will attest. Too often, the process must be approached where they live if develop- of consultation becomes nothing but a covert ment is to be sustainable. Whiteside and and tedious act of co-optation, in which the out- Michael look at the effect AIDS has had on come is assured but it is still compulsory to development, and articles by Meintjes and waste time going through the motions. Hamilton explore the struggle to reconcile tradi- Theorists argue that the flip side of globali- tion and modern medical reality. sation is fragmentation - in a global society that Finally, we look at the role South Africa and advances competition as a normative good, the other dark-complexioned countries play in the tendency to split into teams is only to be expect- global scheme of things. Johnston argues in ed, particularly among the marginalised. Often favour of the continuing relevance of NAM, the most convenient fissures lie upon ethnic while Bond and Padayachee consider the chaos lines. Cultivating these identities is a danger- that comprises international capital flows. ous game, where biology and history and eco- nomics and superstition become conflated in a Ted Leggett highly volatile little cocktail, which we seem Editor

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

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C :AN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG?

NAM REGROUPS 9 ETHNIC IDENTITY CLASHES 15 THE VOLKSTAAT REVISITED 21 BORDERING ON CONFLICT 28 DOES THE SACP MATTER? 34 POLITICAL

IN THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD, NAM'S AUTHORITY IS LARGELY MORAL. EVEN IF THE NON-ALIGNED STATES WERE TO ACT IN UNISON. THEIR COMBINED ECONOMIES ARE NO MATCH FOR THE BIG PLAYERS.

1994 GDP IN $US BILLIONS

6 000 -

5 000 -

4 000 -

3 000 - 2 046

2 000 -

1 000 -

o -F Japan Germany 70 NAM Countries*

Scmir.e: Human Development Report, 1S97

70 NAM COUNTRIES FOR WHICH DATA WAS AVAILABLE

Algeria, Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia, Botswana, Burkina Faso. Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, Colombia, Congo, Cote d'lvoire, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, , Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea- Bissau, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Iran. Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Mauritania, , Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, SaudiArabia, Senegal, SierraLeoue, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, United Rep of Tanzania, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Zambia, Zimbabwe POLITICAL

MONITOR

ETWEEN UNILATERALISM AND THE CULTURE OF SOLIDARITY THE NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT AFTER DURBAN

ALEXANDER JOHNSTON Department of Politics, University of Natal

• THE TASK OF THE NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT REMAINS OPPOSITIONAL ROLE, BASING THEIR CLAIMS ON

THE SAME IN THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD: TO FIND A MORAL DEMANDS, AND THOSE THAT DESIRE TO

WAY IN WHICH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CAN HAVE A ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR PRESENT CONDITIONS

VOICE IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AND ECONOMICS. AND NEGOTIATE ALTERNATIVE WAYS OF INTERACTING WITH THE WORLD. • THE PRIMARY BARRIER TO PURSUING THIS GOAL IS

THE INDEPENDENT INTERESTS OF THE STATES THE FINAL DECLARATION OF THE SUMMIT REJECTS

INVOLVED. WESTERN CONDITIONAL1TIES ON TRADE AND AID, EVEN THOSE BASED ON HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, AS • THF. COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION REMOVED THE "THINLY DISGUISED FORMS OF PROTECTIONISM." DELUSION THAT WESTERN DECLINE WOULD MEAN USE OF THESE CONDITIONS IS CONDEMNED AS "UNI- CONCESSIONS TO THE THIRD WORLD. LATERALISM", A TERM THAT HAS THE SAME CONNOTA-

• THE FRAGMENTATION OF THE THIRD WORLD ALONG TIONS THAT "IMPERIALISM" CONVEYED TO EARLIER

ECONOMIC LINES HAS LED TO TWO APPROACHES TO GENERATIONS OF THE NON-ALIGNED.

THE WEST: THOSE THAT EMBRACE THE WESTERN ALTHOUGH THE DECLARATION STRIKES A STRONG POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL VALUES, AND MORAL TONE ABOUT THE INJUSTICES OF THE PAST AND THOSE THAT DO NOT. THE FORMER GROUP IS TEMPT- THEIR PRESENT LEGACIES, ITS PREDOMINANT POSI- ED TO MAKE SEPARATE ARRANGEMENTS WITH THE TION IS TO REQUIRE THE INDUSTRIALISED WORLD TO WEST, THE LATTER TO FALL INTO ISOLATIONISM. FULFILL THE TERMS OF ITS OWN POLITICAL AND ECO-

• RECONCILING THESE TWO GROUPS MEANS SATISFYING NOMIC DISCOURSE. BOTH THOSE WHO ADHERE TO THE TRADITIONAL

THE TWELTH NON-ALIGNED economics are organised, it seemed urgent that Movement [NAM) Summit Conference in NAM should make some comprehensive state- Durban (29 August - 3 September) was, under- ment establishing its relevance to these new standably enough, the subject of much media conditions. . editorialising about the state of the movement The relevance issue was often couched as and South Africa's role in chairing it for the the question "non-aligned in terms of what?", as next three years. This was the third post-Cold if the removal of the Cold War had removed War summit of NAM, following Jakarta (1992) NAM's central purpose. In fact, its essential and Cartagena (1995). After a decade of a one- rationale (as well as its central dilemma) superpower world, in which there is no serious, remains completely unaltered by the end of the foreseeable, alternative to the principal values Cold War. That purpose is to provide a means and policies around which global politics and through which the developing countries of the

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

9 POLITICAL MONITOR

South can engage with the rules, values and ings in its own approach, and b(,||, ( institutions of a global system of politics and acknowledge the pluralism of choicij j,, economics which they had little part in shaping social, political and economic systems. and have little influence in operating. In so In fact, behind the rhetoric, the main function of doing, the countries of the South hope to defend "non-alignment" was to give a superficially-';

themselves against the worst effects of what non-confrontational and even-handed gloss (0 ^

they see as unjust and discriminatory power what, given the provenance of the laws, values ' structures and, in doing so, to alter them as well. and institutions of international society, was bound to be an anti-Western project of stru DILEMMAS OF REVISIONISM al change. The central dilemma which they face in pursu- This did not mean that all non-aligned coun- ing these goals, is that of all would-be revision- tries wished for Western defeat in the Cold War. ist (or revolutionary] actors in international rela- On the contrary, many of them looked w ward | tions. The countries of the South have all sorts for political and economic support. But eiir.li, in 1 of incentives (national interests, its own way, hoped for a moderation and dilu- I regional insecurities, special rela- tion of Western power to shape - or even dictitli: tionships with former colonialists or - the system of relations which affected them 1 NAM'S CENTRAL PURPOSE other great powers) to work within all. This is the real meaning of non-aH^Mninnt REMAINS COMPLETELY the existing system and get what and it is a meaning which was affected scaruilv UNALTERED BY THE END they can out of it. And all of them at all by the end of the Cold War. are subject to the bottom-line con- What the end of the Cold War did do WHS LO OF THE COLD WAR: TO servatism of all states. remove the distraction which the USSR nnscd to PROVIDE A MEANS This means that sovereignty, the main post-colonial agenda of finding a J THROUGH WHICH non-intervention, and reciprocal decent modus vivendi between the developing J solidarity with others similarly- countries of the South and a Western-dominated DEVELOPING COUNTRIES placed, are imperatives which usu- international society and political economy. Tht; CAN ENGAGE WITH THE ally get in the way of radical change. doomed Soviet experiment combined mrml GLOBAL SYSTEM. Under these conditions, the difficul- social revolution and political autocracy nl ties in assembling a coherent, home; abroad, it represented a strained marria}j

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

10 POLITICAL IvT ~0~ N T ~0 R

of delusion was the expectation that the West was in decline, and the fantasy entire sln»:t««! whi|(, |||c \oa-Aligned Movement reserved that this would favour the Third World. It did up n,ht to ex|.i"il the Cold War for its own pur- this without providing any great urgency or enthusiasm for the resumption of dialogue qtin; WVsl would hold the two sets of rela- between the developing and developed worlds, lionsliip's - K:iM-West and North-South - sepa- certainly in the case of the latter. fcltf'1 But the essential dilemma which Nothing furtlier from the tmtlL gave rise to the Non-Aligned ThrmiqhfiiH the If'/Os, Western countries gener-. Movement in the first place ally iintl till! I S \ in particular suffered reverse remains. How can developing coun- THE COLLAPSE OF THE liftiir reverse, Hi oaomic difficulties at home tries, individually and collectively, SOVIET UNION REMOVED wc.rf! slnirjiU i'V.' "rbated by the producer revo- accommodate themselves to a sys- lution in the oil industry which quadrupled the THE DISTRACTIONS OF tem of structures and relationships price. Military defeat in Vietnam was followed THE COLD WAR, THE by revolutions in former Portuguese Africa and which facilitated their colonial sub- the overthrow ill Western clients in Ethiopia ordination and presides over their DELUSION THAT THE continually deteriorating position ami Inui. Events in El Salvador and Nicaragua WEST WAS IN DECLINE, towards the end of the decade seemed to show relative to the industrialised coun- AND THE FANTASY THAT that at last, revolution could be successfully tries? uxporlod to the mainland of Latin America, Given that the dominance of the THIS WOULD FAVOUR THE latter in formal policy-making insti- THIRD WORLD. THE REVOLT OF THE WEST tutions of global governance is now None of this inclined the Western states in the backed with the moral authority of least to make concessions to the Non-Aligned their own success, how can such an Movement's agenda of structural change in accommodation take place which retains some international politics and (latterly) the world individual and collective sense of developing economy. They were not at all disposed to countries as an autonomous force in global pol- ni«nnl these demands as somehow separate itics? from 'he overall balance of forces in an increas- ingly hostile and unstable world, requiring to be FRAGMENTING THIRD WORLD treated exclusively in their own normative These problems have to be addressed at several terms of distributive and procedural justice. levels. In the first place, can such a large and Kightly or wrongly, the governments of the diverse grouping as NAM deliver a meaningful radical right which were elected in Britain and consensus on relations with the developed the USA at the beginning of the 1980s were world and reform of the global political econo- inclined to treat Third World demands as anoth- my? After all, a small and relatively homoge- er front of an all-embracing war, in which it was neous grouping like the EU has many problems time to take the offensive. While the countries of in delivering a common foreign policy under the Third World were not the principal target for infinitely more favourable conditions. this counter-offensive (which came to be known The problems of diversity are certainly unde- as "the Second Cold War"), they suffered indi- niable. The economic fragmentation of the Third rectly in a number of ways, notably from rocket- World (a term which itself must now be used ing interest rates on their debts. At a minimum, with much hesitation and qualification) into oil all prospects of constructive dialogue between producers, middle-income industrialising states the industrialised and developing worlds were and the poverty-stricken "Fourth World" has wrecked by the indifference or even hostility of long been recognised. At the political level, the the latter to Third World arguments in favour of end of the Cold War may have removed one change. source of division between radicals and conserv- The collapse of the Soviet Union removed atives in NAM, but attitudes towards the devel- the distractions of the Cold War, the delusion oped world remain quite varied.

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

11 M 0 N I T O R tmm i

There are those, like South Africa, who may Realism or revisionism: to what e> be wary of the extent and reach of Western polit- the structures of global politics and ei on()ni_ ical and economic power, but themselves sub- ics be regarded as non-negotiable? If th0sg scribe to broadly similar conceptions of politi- who control them simply will not cede lUtiir cal and economic good and are quite happy to dominant position and refuse anything (iil)w embrace Western material culture in its various than minor adjustments, for which ;i hjo], influential forms, including communication, price in conformity and co-option by i)le information and entertainment. Others have a developing world is in any case asked. what much more urgent and insistent conception of alternative programme of revisionism is p«v the need to resist Western power on a much sible? more broadly defined terrain than purely politi- cal and economic decision-making. Continuity or change: to what exieiil can The temptation for the former, NAM afford to admit individual and < like South Africa in its Bilateral tive error in the past? For instance, can IT IS PRECISELY TO Commission with the United States endogenous factors in underdevelopment bp and its bilateral negotiations with admitted (as even radical development iron, NEGOTIATE THE CHOPPY the European Union, is to make their omists have done for years)? Or di> tlm WATERS BETWEEN THE own accommodations with the demands of solidarity ensure that the inade- EXTREMES OF CO-OPTION industrialised world. An even better quacies and deformities of Third World i on- example is Mexico, whose close rela- AND REJECTIONS THAT ditions be treated as hitherto, the result tionship with the United States purely of exogenous factors derived Iroin IS NAM'S TASK. (especially now that the North structural injustices? The other side of this American Free Trade Area is a reali- coin is whether to continue to treat the suc- ty) keeps it from membership of the cess of the industrialised countries as atlrib- NAM, despite its demonstrable eligibility. utable to historical good fortune anil the The temptation for the second group, whose original sin of exploitation, or admit to sumo rejection of Western influence is much broader, inherent qualities of Western values :»>d is barren isolationism and a self-inflicted dis- policies which account, at least in pail, lor tancing from most of what is dynamic, innova- their prosperity and stability. tive and productive in global politics and eco- nomics. It is precisely to negotiate the choppy Moral claims or pragmatic adjustme.nl of waters between the extremes of co-option and interests: essentially, NAM can approach the rejectionism that is NAM's task. industrialised countries as an injured party CHOICES FOR RE-ALIGNMENT seeking legitimate redress, or as a prospec- South Africa's mission on accepting responsibili- tive partner in an enterprise with potential ty for chairing NAM through the next three years for mutual profit. Tempting as it is to invoke was openly expressed in the following terms; to a moral dimension to historical pheniniMMiii bring a sense of urgency and renewal to the prob- such as slavery and imperialism, it .!-> very lems of dialogue between the developed and difficult to base specific claims on such underdeveloped world; to reaffirm the suitability grounds and make them politically and of NAM as a principal medium for that dialogue; legally operational. In any case, to do so and to manufacture a consensus among NAM's risks accusations of creating a culture of diverse elements on re-setting the terms of the dependence, entitlement and refusal to Movement's engagement in the dialogue. accept due responsibility for one's own con- What is involved in this mission can be elab- dition. But unless Third World demands for orated in terms of choices to be made within change are situated in a moral framework, three sets of opposed imperatives. they will lose much of their force.

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

12 POLITICAL MONITOR

FORWARDS. SIDEWAYS, REVERSE human rights generally, outside such a frame- iki! ill! its predecessors, the Durban Summit work of multilateralism, are examples of the J 'ojJ(,,(] ., [.-jMJi! D-claration, This is a compre- unacceptable practice of unilateralism (whose ssive siliiiilion report on global politics, eco- baleful presence appears in most sections of the nniiiic^ find new nance. Little new could be Final Declaration). exported the political passages, but in the In this context, conditionalities which make Mictions on the international economy, it is trade, market access, transfer of technology, or rloiir in inanv places that the drafters were eager any North/South transaction, depend on some to take one sli'p i'nru ard in the direction of real- human rights issue or another, are unacceptable. ism, focus ami i ommitment to dialogue with This is true because, being unilateral, they are the developed \\mid on specific, realisable (indeed, they can be nothing other than), "thin- issues. Often, however, this is followed by ly disguised forms of protectionism." another slup, this time to the side or even back- Particular conditionalities may or may not be wards, usually prompted by the demands of sol- that. In practice, it can be difficult to tell, while idarity and the special interests of members it might also be argued that the right moral effect (Libya. Ii«iq, Cuba) who have specific conflicts can come from self-interested actions. But where with the developed world, usually the USA. NAM is on strong ground is the blatantly selec- One of the most typical ways in which this tive application of such conditionalities by plHNiuiiifinon is woven into the fabric of the industrialised countries, according Movement can be seen in the affirmation of a to the perceived importance of any principle, immediately followed by the denial given developing economy, either in ACCORDING TO NAM, of moans to put it into practice. References to its general potential as a market (like CONDITIONALITIES WHICH human rights in the "Durban Declaration" (the China) or in specific sectors (like oil, MAKE ANY NORTH/SOUTH short statement of aims and principles which or arms sales), Of course, NAM summarises the spirit of the Final Declaration) countries (South Africa included) TRANSACTION DEPEND ON conic into this category. The same is true of ref- are no strangers themselves to selec- SOME HUMAN RIGHTS erences to labour standards. The fullest expres- tive hypocrisy. ISSUE OR ANOTHER, ARE sion of this phenomenon comes in paragraph More serious than tit-for-tat accu- 270 of the Final Declaration: sations of selectivity and self-interest UNACCEPTABLE. in pursuing any labour or human The Movement, while subscribing to the val- rights regime, though, is the prospect ues of environmental protection, labour that NAM's vision of a purely multilateral frame- standards, intellectual property protection, work for addressing such issues carries risks of its sound macro-economic management and own. The principal one is to reduce the whole promotion and protection of human rights, project of upholding rights on an international rejects all attempts to use these issues as level to the lowest common denominator of what conditionalities and pretexts for restricting can be agreed across the board. market access or aid and technology flows to Doubtless NAM's own culture of solidarity developing countries. and protection for the special needs and inter- ests of its members would do much to ensure A defender of the Declaration might argue that this. And it is doubtful whether national and this analysis misses the point. NAM is indeed international NGOs - whose motives are cer- committed to these principles, but they must tainly not those of protectionism and other °nly be articulated, implemented and upheld forms of national economic advantage - would bv multilateral agreement. For instance, para- relish the loss of the "unilateral" conditionali- graph 2B8 affirms that "the ILO is the only inter- ties which they lobby for, nor would they favour national body competent to set and deal with the vesting of human rights issues solely in labour standards". All attempts to influence agreements between the governments, among NAM members on issues of labour standards, or whom are the principal abusers.

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M 0 N I T 0 R

IMPERIALISM TO UNILATERALISM strategic silence. The Declaration went ,„ The many appearances of "unilateralism" in the farther than any previous, similar documi;,lt. text of the Final Declaration suggest that for the accept openly the imperative of integration y Movement in the 1990s it has the same status the global economy as the best (the only) - that "imperialism" conveyed to earlier genera- of development. tions of the non-aligned. Doubtless this shift is Not only this, but it acknowledged meant as a linguistic concession, dropping the impressive detail the terms of restructuring t earlier term's associations with Marxism- developing countries have to meet to makesnd Leninism and with the more obvious and gross- integration possible. Indeed, although er forms of exploitation and denials of others' Declaration strikes a strong moral tone about t injustices of the past and their present legacies

its predominant moral position is to Tequire ( Despite this, the continuity with past the industrialised world that it fulfill the U>rii rhetoric is fairly clearly signalled, especially in of its own political and economic discourse. sections on sanctions and extra-ter- This means that NAM is effectively adopting ritorial measures. In choosing to a dual approach to dialogue with the di-M-loped emphasise these, however, NAM's THE DECLARATION world. While the emphasis on past injustices i drafters have highlighted issues on will remain a permanent fixture, the actual dia- ! OPENLY ACCEPTS which they may win more than a lit- logue will take place largely in terms of per- | INTEGRATION INTO THE tle sympathy among developed suading the North to be true to its own princi- | countries other than the USA, the GLOBAL ECONOMY AS THE pies of liberalisation and free trade, while seeing principal target of critical references its own interests in regulating undesirable in; BEST HOPE OF to unilateralism. bilities like volatile movements of short term j DEVELOPMENT. Another sign of continuity is the capital. emphasis on violations of rights between governments, which are THE SPIRIT OF DURBAN assumed (somewhat tenuously in the case of Somewhere between the challenge of uniluleuil- some NAM members) to be synonymous with ism and the uncertainties of its traditional culture j their peoples. In his keynote speech, Deputy- of solidarity, NAM is painfully working toward a President Mbeki said (in the context of chal- new moral and tactical synthesis with which to lenging the powerful vested interests of global engage in dialogue with the industrialised world. political economy): Unsurprisingly, the Final Declaration had si Clearly, any among us who is preoccupied thing for everyone, from pragmatic reformers with denying his or her people their democ- determined fundamentalists. ratic and human rights, who is fixated on But to an important extent it represented waging wars against others, who is too busy views and the interests of countries which had looting the public coffers....will not have the moved quite far to create the domestic condi- time to participate in meeting this historical tions of economic success as laid down by the challenge. orthodoxies of globalisation. The battle to come is whether the developed world is prepared sim- Little, if any, of the spirit of this boldly- ilarly to move in creating an enabling interna- expressed, inwardly-directed rebuke, survived tional environment to match this domestic into the Final Declaration. This is hardly sur- movement. I prising, but all was not negative rhetoric and

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POLITICAL INTOLERANCE AND ETHNICITY INVESTIGATING SOCIAL IDENTITY

JAMES L GIBSON Department of Political Science, University of Houston AMANDA GOUWS Department of Political Science, University of Stellenbosch

, PREVIOUS STUDIE'- OF ETHNIC TOLERANCE HAVE WITH REGARD TO THE REPORTING OF ANTI-IDENTI-

SHOWN SOUTH AI MC \NS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE CON- TIES, 21.9% AFRICAN RESPONDENTS HAD NO ANTI-

CERN FOR THL Rlt.LLT- OF OTHER GROUPS. IDENTITY BUT ONLY 5.5% WHITES NO ANTI-IDENTITY. A CERTAIN PERCENTAGE OF AFRICANS CHOSE IDEO- • THIS STUDY EXPLOIil - THE WAY SOUTH AFRICANS LOGICAL SUB-GROUPS SUCH AS BOER OR AFRIKANER IDENTIFY THir.'MLVL".. HOW STRONGLY THEY HOLD WHEREAS 37% OF WHITES CHOSE "BLACK". THESE GROUP IDENTIFICATIONS, AND HOW THIS

AFFECTS THE WAY THEY PERCEIVE THEIR FELLOW 75% OF SOUTH AFRICANS OF ALL RACE GROUPS Executive

SOUTH AFRICANS. RATED IDENTITY AS VERY IMPORTANT, THE HIGHEST SCORE ON A FIVE POINT SCALE Summary • NEARLY ONE THIRD OF BLACK RESPONDENTS CHOSE

TO IDENTIFY THEMSELVES AS "AFRICAN". ONE THIRD GREATER GROUP ATTACHMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH

OF AFRICANS AND OVER ONE HALF OF WHITES, GREATER POLITICAL INTOLERANCE. STRONG GROUP

COLOUREDS AND ASIANS CHOSE "SOUTH AFRICAN" IDENTITIES ARE, THEREFORE, NOT CONDUCIVE TO

AS A FIRST OR SECOND CHOICE, RATHER THAN A DEMOCRATIC POLITICS, ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS TRUE

RACIAL. TERM. FOR AFRICANS THAN FOR WHITES.

SOUTH AFRICA HAS ALWAYS BEEN "least liked" measurement approach (Sullivan a deeply divided society along ethnic, race and et al, 1982) where respondents are asked to linguistic lines. These deep divisions opened choose a target group they really dislike and the way for politicians to inflict all kinds of then indicate how willing they would be to social engineering on South African society as a allow this least liked group certain civil liber- way of regulating conflict, such as apartheid ties (such as freedom of speech, association and and pseudo-consociationalism. The effect of assembly). Most respondents indicated that these political systems was to entrench the divi- they would definitely not allow their least liked sions even further, making democratisation group to demonstrate, or to run as a candidate even more difficult. for political office, or even to exist as a group. Acts of violence and intolerance are part of Political tolerance is conceptualised as an the fabric of South African society. But scholars attitudinal characteristic of the respondent - it have only recently begun to do empirical stud- forms part of the attitudes which are necessary res of political tolerance. Findings since 1993 to bolster a democratic culture. Findings of have shown high levels of political intolerance Gouws and Gibson (1997) show that, when among all population groups in South Africa. using language as an indicator of ethnicity, all Some of the studies done so far (Gouws groups are highly intolerant of both their least 1993, Gibson and Gouws, 1997) have used the liked group as well as another disliked group.

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Race is certainly central to South African exploring the structure of group idem-• politics, but intra-racial (or ethnic) divisions are among ordinary South Africans. H(THIIS(. terribly significant as well. In deeply divided sample includes representative sub-sample, polities, people typically develop strong in- the major ethnic/racial/linguistic »ioups . group positive identities, often leading to strong South Africa, we are able to assess how • outgroup negative identities. The world is identities vary across groups. divided into friends and foes. We wanted to establish if people stronger group identities are more likely to i IDENTITY AND TOLERANCE hostile toward outgroups, more likely to li Researchers have tended to assume that intoler- threatened by their political enemies, and i ance is a natural consequence of group identi- likely to be intolerant of them. ties, but that relationship has rarely been inves- The pie charts represent the priuuirv so tigated empirically and has never been conclu- identities of the four major racial groupings in sively established. Indeed, the literature on South Africa. Respondents were aslnd: political intolerance seldom considers social see themselves in many different ways, identity theory - the connection between a peo- this list, which of them best describes ple's knowledge of their social group, their emo- And then: "Do you think of yourself in any ei tional attachment to it, and their levels of polit- the other terms as well?" ical tolerance. We found that the most attractive idenlitv Based on our 1996 survey we begin by that black respondents chose was African, cho-

TABLE 1. THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRIMARY SOCIAL IDENTITIES

BLACKS WHITES

Christian Boer South African 3% European 5% 3% African Language African 32% 29% Group Wb' 32°/ English 11%

Black South Afrikaner Chr 14% African 24% 19%

COLOUREDS ASIANS

Brown African _ . Black 3% Asian Afj£an South 3% 4% South Muslim African 12% African 11°/og 30% 31% Indian 16%

immMStSw Coloured Hindu • • • in ., , Christian 29% 17% Moslem 100/ Afrikaner 16% 4% 8%

Gibson & Gouws.

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POLITICAL MONITOR

Whites were most likely to assert an anti- a variety of political movements negatively identity and Africans were the least likely to perhaps to be threatened by them and unu name a group with which they dis-identified. to tolerate their political activity. But for South Africans of all race groups having We tested the hypothesis that those v.-iifc an identity is important. 75% rated identity as stronger group identifications will hold higher very important, the highest score on levels of group antipathy, will perceive their

a five point scale, political enemies as more threatening, mi(j What the findings show is that hence will be less tolerant of them. HOSE WHO BELIEVE IN there is not necessarily a relation- We have already discussed the "least-] ikcrl THE NEED FOR GROUP ship between a positive attitude measure" and our findings pertaining to |||j< toward identity and the ability to measurement. As part of this measure a sarii- SOLIDARITY ARE MORE name an anti-identity. The question pling of groups from the left and right w.is pr(.. LIKELY TO DISLIKE A remains: which identities are most sented, and the respondents were asked to rati- WIDE VARIETY OF conducive to creating intolerance? each on an eleven-point scale ranging from Identities that foster group solidarity indicating disliking the group very much, to POLITICAL GROUPS. seems to create the need for internal "11," which means that the respondent likes tht group conformity and therefore group very much, A general measure of group more negative attitudes toward out- antipathy can be constructed by determining the groups. We found moderate support for the rela- number of groups rated at the most extreme neg- tionship that those who ascribe greater impor- ative point on the antipathy scale. We hypothe- tance to their identities hold attitudes favouring sised that stronger group identities are associat- group solidarity (r=.25) ed with more outgroup antipathy. We find that there are indeed some conse- ANTIPATHY, THREAT & INTOLERANCE quences of identity for antipathy. For instance, One implication of strong group identifications those who more strongly believe in the need for group solidarity are more likely to dislike, a is that people will tend to see the world as com- wider variety of political groups in South posed of political enemies. Those with stronger Africa. The overall relationship is .18, but the identities will therefore be more likely to judge

TABLE 3. CATEGORIES OF PRIMARY IDENTITY AND ANTI-IDENTITY J

% All South Africans African White Coloured Asi.m

Identity

National 21.3 19.0 28.2 29.7 31.3

Racial 39.7 45.7 10.3 38.3 30.6 J

Subracial/Ethnic 30.6 32.7 37.7 5.5

Religious 8.4 2.6 23.8 26.6 38.1 1 : Anti-Identity

National .2 .2 0 .4 0

Racial 34.9 30.0 51.0 50.0 44.9

Subracial/Ethnic 38.2 42.7 22.5 22.4 34.0

Religious 7.8 5.0 20.8 11.0 9.4

None 19.0 22,1 5.7 16.3 11,7

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Most importantly, stronger and more developed . ,^1-iHfitm ""^'''ds -20 for both white and group identities are associated with greater 'Sounwl South Africans. This finding supports inter-group antipathy, threat, and intolerance. Ihc belief thai attitudes of those who hold vprv strong political identities will threaten South Africans who identify with a group are among the less democratic segments of the pop- fii>nio(.i;itic |Kililu s. 'l'],(.n. is also some relationship between ulation. Strong group identities are group aiiliiiailiy and the reported degree of psy- therefore not conducive to democra- "hic luiiielils derived from group attachments, tic politics. The above findings are perhaps Wilh those reporting receiving more benefits SOUTH AFRICAN IDENTITY being moo liWv to dislike more groups (r = most true of , 15). Again, liu- i>ilationship is stronger among not African South Africans. That is, IS ASSOCIATED WITH LESS while and i"'domed people. Surprisingly, the variability in social identities among ANTIPATHY AMONG WHITE direction of the relationship is reversed among white South Africans is more close- AND COLOURED PEOPLE. South Alrira/is of Asian origin, with those ly connected to antipathy, threat, deriving 111010 psychic benefits of group mem- and intolerance than among any bership holding loss group antipathy. This may other group in South Africa. This is lie a Cimction of the relatively high prevalence certainly a finding that warrants of religious identification among Asian South additional investigation, and the difference Africans. between Afrikaans and English-speaking whites Several of the other aspects of group identi- is of special interest, but certainly the deleteri- ty have selective influences on group antipathy. ous effects of group identities are not confined to For instance, beliefs about the political rele- any single segment of the South African popula- vance o! groups are connected to higher levels tion. of antipathy among white and coloured South These findings are drawn from a single point Africans, but not among Africans, and only in time -1996. At this point the development of weakly so among South Africans of Asian ori- a national identity was questionable. The gin. South African identity is associated with development of a national identity is very less antipathy among white and coloured South important for the consolidation of democracy. Africans, but (slightly) more hostility among A consolidated democracy encompasses the South Africans of Asian origin, and is unrelated idea of a nation which may consist of different to levels of antipathy among Africans. White identities but which are tolerated by and coloured South Africans who hold an anti- each other. It has to be a more solid idenlity tend to hate more political groups, identity that the idea of the "rain- although this is not true among African and bow nation" which is an artificial STRONG GROUP Asian South Africans. identity with very little content. IDENTITIES ARE NOT Finally, greater group attachment is associ- Fragmented identities cannot con- CONDUCIVE TO ated with greater political intolerance, although tribute toward becoming a South 'lie relationships are slightly weaker. Those African nation. DEMOCRATIC POLITICS. who derive greater psychic benefits from their For those optimistic about the group identity and who believe more strongly consolidation of democracy our in group solidarity are more likely to be intoler- findings unfortunately show that ant. Generally, except among the African major- the construction of strong group identities do those who hold more meaningful group not contribute to lower levels of antipathy, identities are more likely to be intolerant. threat, or intolerance (except perhaps among whites). Though developing a sense of national FRAGMENTED IDENTITIES identity is surely important, it is not clear that fa this research, we have supported several those who think of themselves as South African important deductions from the existing litera- will necessarily be any more tolerant of their ture 011 social identities and democratisation. fellow South Africans. We also have to be aware

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that this was a stud)' of attitudinal (in)tolerance seek solace and protection from groups, rathgr and not behavioural intolerance. It is the case than groups contributing independently to\ that the relationship between attitudes and antipathy and xenophobia. The entire cau< behaviour is difficult to establish. It is never structure of identities is a question worthy quite clear whether people will act considerable additional research, given "t on their intolerant attitudes. The]' frightening rise of xenophobia expressed agaij may despise certain outgroups but African immigrants from other countries on t PEOPLE LEARN WHERE when will they act on their atti- continent. tudes? Finally, these data reinforce the view tl THEY BELONG IN SOCIETY, This research supports what intolerance is learned behaviour, and is i AND WHO THEIR appears to be a fundamental aspect entirely an attribute of individual psvcholo ENEMIES ARE. of social interactions - people who People learn where they belong in society, ami identify with a group have a tenden- this knowledge of belonging often lewis to cy to develop attitudes about the beliefs about not belonging. This proiess of nature of individual allegiance to, adjustment results in people learning who their and solidarity with, the group and these atti- enemies are, which then contributes to threat tudes often give rise to a form of xenophobia - perceptions and ultimately to intolerance. It political intolerance. Yet, given the limited perhaps does not follow that social isolation analysis of these data to date, we cannot be cer- contributes to tolerance and democratic values, tain whether group identities are a cause or an but the ways in which individuals come to effect of xenophobia. It may well be that those understand their location in social and group who are more fearful of their political enemies space is crucial. I

REFERENCES

Gibson, f, L. and A. Gouws (1997) Political Tolerance Gouws, A. (1993) Political Tolerance and Civil Society: in the Emerging South African Democracy. Paper The Case of South Africa. Politikon: South African delivered at the 1997 Annual Meeting of the Journal of Political Science 20 (July):15-31. American Political Science Association, Washington Sullivan, J. L„ J. E. Piereson, and G. E. Marcus (1082) Sheraton Hotel, Washington, DC, August 27-31. Political Tolerance and American Democracy. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

A fall report of the findings summarised in the article is available from the authors.

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20 M N ~~i T 0 R

A VOLKSTAAT FOR AFRIKANERS

CHRIS JOOSTE Former member of the Volkstaat Council

THE RIGHT 10 SELF-DETERMINATION IS WELL-ESTAB- HAS DECLINED FROM 12% IN 1921 TO 7.7% IN

LISHED IN INTERNATIONAL JURISPRUDENCE. THE 1991. IT IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO 4.7% IN 2026

AFRIKANER 0\CE IS COMPARABLE TO THAT OF THE AND TO 1% OR LESS IN 2100. AFRIKANER VOTING

TSWANAS OR THE JEWS. STRENGTH WILL DECLINE ACCORDINGLY, TO 5.2% IN 2020 AND TO LESS THAN 4% IN 2035. • THERE ARE AHOUT THREE MILLION AFRIKANERS IN

SOUTH AFRICA, BUT LESS THAN ONE MILLION WOULD • THE AGEING OF THE AFRIKANER POPULATION WILL

be INTERESTED IN A VOLKSTAAT. DIFFERENCES OF ALSO HAVE AN EFFECT ON ITS ROLE IN THE LABOUR

OPINON AMONG AFRIKANERS SHOULD NOT BE USED MARKET AND ITS DEPENDENCY ON THE REST OF THE

TO JUSTIFY INACTION ON THE PART OF THE GOVERN- POPULATION.

MENT. HOWEVEIV. • THE SITING OF THE VOLKSTAAT HAS BEEN DEBATED

• THE QUEST FOR A VOLKSTAAT IS NOT A NEW ONE FOR BETWEEN THOSE WHO SUPPORT SELECTION OF AN

AFRIKANERS, BUT REPRESENTS THE CULMINATION OF AREA IN WHICH THERE ARE LARGE NUMBERS OF

CENTURIFS OF LIBERATION STRUGGLES. LIKE MANY AFRIKANERS, SUCH AS PARTS OF GAUTENG, AND

OTHER WHIM SOUTH AFRICANS, AFRIKANERS ARE THOSE WHO SUPPORT AREAS WHERE THERE ARE FEW

FEELING MARGINALISED AND THREATENED IN THE NON-AFRIKANERS, SUCH AS THE AREA AROUND

NEW SOUTH AFRICA. ORANIA IN THE NORTH WESTERN CAPE.

• THE AFRIKANER SHARE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION

THE TERM VOLKSTAAT IS ACCEPTED munity are bound to protect and promote it. ami used in government and other circles as They are obliged to negotiate and to come to an referring to a sovereign state for Afrikaners. A effective and mutually acceptable solution volkstaat is defined as a predominantly homo- without delay. Unfree peoples may choose the geneous people in their country under their form of self-determination that would suit their government, as distinct from a population (het- needs. They have to enter into negotiatiations erogeneous), a country and a government. with the government about the application of Two established principles relating to the the choice that they have made. Of course, the quest for a volkstaat should be stated at the out- outcome of such negotiation may be, and often set. Firstly, a volkstaat is a recognised form of has been, quite different from the original self-determination. Other recognised forms choice. include amalgamation with an adjoining state The UN and the vast majority of authorities and various types of internal autonomy, ranging regard self-determination as a peremptory rule from corporate to local or regional self-rule. All of international law. This means, inter alia, that °f these or combinations thereof, constitute it cannot be relinquished and that it cannot be kgitimate options for exercising rights of self- denied or withheld from those who are entitled determination. to it. Most Afrikaners view themselves as a peo- Secondly, self-determination constitutes a ple entitled to self-determination. They are so collective right to which all peoples are enti- viewed by other people here as well as overseas ced. Governments and the international com- interests.

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21 F^^s^ LIT1CAL M 0~

WHO ARE THE AFRIKANERS? Understandably, the assimilation ()| , Afrikaners are scattered over the entire country. whites in recent history was negligible. This They are divided on what they need most, on ure can be expected to increase in future, but how they should view themselves, and on what is unlikely to exceed the 4% to 9% of the 17< their relations with others should be. It is wrong and 18th century when the foundations of to interpret such a lack of unity as Afrikaner people were laid. abnormal, and for governments to Thus, there are approximately three millif use it as an excuse for doing nothing Afrikaners at present. They are e\|)ui,|(>(| THERE IS NO NEED TO about their various and often con- increase to about 3,1 million by 2015, to dec! DELVE DEEPLY INTO THE flicting ideas and claims. thereafter, and to be back at three million 15 Some Afrikaners are loosely 20 years later. The decline will continue ft QUESTION OF WHO IS AN associated with their people. They some considerable time. AFRIKANER. stress their identity as members of a When people embark on a volkstaat certain multi-cultural South African nation, sacrifices to get the state on its feet regard human rights as adequate unavoidable. From the Jewish experience protection of their identity, and have no con- that of the Tswana, Basotho and Swazi it uimki cerns about assimilation. Others view their sub- appear that in the case of a scattered people un|\ ordinate status emotionally and with trepida- about a third are prepared to make those tion, as a state of powerlessness, of exposure to fices. If the same is true of Afrikaners, a state for ' assimilation, and a threat to their survival. They no more than one million will be needed. regard different forms of autonomy, including International law and practice, custom and territorial autonomy, as essential. Among the conventions, and numerous charters and resolu- latter there are those who are satisfied with the tions, assist Afrikaners in a most decisive status of a minority or community, with rights of ner in their quest for a volkstaat, and/or one or self-determination, but excluding a volkstaat. other internal arrangement, They were depi 1 vml There is no need to delve deeply into the of their republics wrongfully in 1902 and an1 question of who is an Afrikaner. Thus far it has entitled to restitution. Without control of llm only been raised as an issue of party political government, rights under international law and discourse. Internationally, it has proven diffi- UN conventions have become vitally important cult to compile a single list of objective criteria to them. which can define membership in a The major obstacles are of an internal ntilari!. people. It has become customary to In terms of its international commitments, llic It WOULD APPEAR THAT view all those who regard them- South African government is duty bound lu selves as members, who accept each negotiate conclusively on the most appropriate IN THE CASE OF A other as such, and are so recognised forms of self-determination. There is a percep- SCATTERED PEOPLE ONLY by others, as constituting a people. tion among Afrikaners that the government is ABOUT A THIRD ARE Afrikaners identify themselves in a dragging its feet in respect of negotiation, that it similar way. is doing so deliberately in the hope that the PREPARED TO MAKE The number of whites who claims for a volkstaat will subside, and that it is THOSE SACRIFICES record Afrikaans as their first or hiding behind divisions within the people about NECESSARY TO GET THE home language gives a close approx- the form of self-determination they want, imation of the size of the popula- Walzer, in arguing that absence of fear of STATE ON ITS FEET. tion. There may be a slight under- oppression and assimilation presents a basis for count. In 1991, only 0.8% of whites national unity and co-operation, admonishes reported both Afrikaans and English governments to accept that space provides secu- as their home languages. There are also those rity, and to refrain from denial of territorial solu- who use English, German, Dutch, Portuguese or tions. They should allow such solutions to take other languages in their homes but regard them- place and renegotiate gradual return to adher- selves as Afrikaners and are accepted as such, ence to some community of interest. In this way,

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22 POLITICAL MONITOR

overcome the disadvantages of territor- umphed over Willem Adriaan van der Stel's oppressive administration. By the end of that : (li\ isi„jis. i m points out that sovereignty and century they had had enough of "alien rule" !l u)f !<»'•> ili!W! first t0 be achieved before and started to free themselves, at least from the natUiiif' umt\ . ;:n proceed. Cape administration. ' Obstacles an' •ilso inherent m the perception Great Britain took control of the jjnt the dilloreii' forms of self-determination stand in opposition to each other, that only one Gape in 1806 and the 19th century should was for Afrikaners, in Smuts' AFRIKANERS HAVE A optic" be selected and that the matter has to bo derided in the party political arena. words, "a century of wrong". Their LONG HISTORY OF Efforts are nndei way to put this in its proper early schooling and experience and STRUGGLE FOR jerspeclive. MI that the different forms supple- successes in modern political prac- ment each othei in a way that would meet the tices under the Dutch, no doubt STATEHOOD. divergent needs nf the people concerned. enabled them to resist British dena- Afrikaner leaders are working towards a tionalisation policies for the next veil-determination portfolio encompassing pos- hundred years. sibilities liir trritorial and cultural forms of A minority of Afrikaners ultimately suc- self-determination, and for individual options ceeded in freeing themselves from British dom- of assiinil.ili'i;:. human rights. ination through the founding of internationally recognised republics in the north-east, outside THE VOLKSTAAT OPTION the sphere of British control. However, colonial The quest tor .1 olkstaat is not new. Afrikaners expansion proceeded and in 1902, through have a long history of struggle for identity and force of arms, the whole of South Africa came statehood, for a state of their own, or at least under Britain's control. control of a stale. A number of factors have kept Afrikaners lost their freedom, which from the idea of a volkstaat in the forefront of then on had to be regained through political Afrikaner thinking, and still do. Three of these process. From 1910 they shared one political are referred to below. system with an English-speaking community, Firstly, many Afrikaners view their local his- 700 000 strong, culturally and politically influ- tory against the background of the plight of their ential and loyal to Britain, In the first half of the ancestors in Europe during the 16th and 17th 20th century relations between the two commu- centuries. They had no political or religious nities constituted the central issue that stood, rights, and were persecuted. The history of the not only in the way of Afrikaner freedom, but Eighty Year's War must have been fresh in the also in the way of coming to terms with black minds of those who came to the Cape in 1652. demands for freedom. Persecution in France was rife and resulted in In addition, the presence of a the addition of 151 Huguenots to the resident numerically superior black citizen- SOVEREIGNTY AND population of about 600 in 1688. ry with very little in the way of I'ree burghers kept themselves informed political rights, made the prospects DEMOCRACY HAVE FIRST about political developments elsewhere. They of Afrikaner freedom visibly inse- TO BE ACHIEVED BEFORE knew the slogans of the American and French cure. The subsequent history of NATIONAL UNITY CAN Evolution and applied them against autocratic black resistance, the experiments governors and in the establishment of their sev- with territorial partitioning and, PROCEED. eral republics since 1795. ultimately, democratic government Afrikaner ancestors started to exert them- over the South Africa of 1910, are selves as an evolving political entity towards well-known. Once again, many Afrikaners see Ihe close of the 17th century when Governor their people as being back in 1902 politically, in Simon Van der Stel's school and church policies a position where they have to negotiate for some were successfully opposed by Huguenots. Early form of expression to their rights of self-deter- m the 18th century the farming community tri- mination.

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

23 POLITICAL M 0 N 0 R

Secondly, more and more Afrikaners are The declining share of Afrikaners [ experiencing feelings of frustration, disillusion- total and in the voting population will ment and despair about the effect of transforma- their influence in national decision tion on their personal and family Their role in society may become less sat lives, Many have decided to emi- and less meaningful in future than it is lit, grate. The crime situation, farm sent. Governments rule in a way that will THE AFRIKANER SHARE murders and land policies are per- their power more secure. The interests of • OF THE TOTAL ceived as particularly destructive. power base are protected. The stage of POPULATION HAS While some continue to prefer graphic development of Afrikaners makes'*! membership of the South African inevitable that their critical interests will DECLINED FROM 1 2% IN nation as their first identity, and substantially from those of the governmc 1921 TO 7.7% IN 1991. while many still choose cultural power base. It is more than likely that I hoy forms of self-determination, concern increasingly perceive government prioritie | about what they regard as inroads on detrimental to their interests, their education, their heritage, the status of Afrikaners have almost completed thecyclS their language, modes and prospects of affirma- from slow growth through high birth and de tive action, and their sense of safety and securi- rates, to rapid growth through declining moitabf ty appears to be growing. ity, and slow growth through declining fertility.! Thirdly, Afrikaners have a longer history of During this transition they have been thrc demographic transition than the vast majority of stages of rural poverty and urbanisation, other South Africans. They constitute a rapidly through education crises and the poor whitij aging population, growth is confined to the problem, and through struggles for political and higher age groups, the death rate is increasing economic empowerment. and will in the next decade or so exceed the In addition to the declining share o{ birth rate. The entire population will then Afrikaners in the total population, the labour decline while other South Africans will contin- force and the voting population, the foregoing ue to increase for the next 50 to 100 years. transition will have the result of increasing old The Afrikaner share of the total population age dependency (from 10 in 1980 to 12 in HKI1 has declined from 12% in 1921 to 7.7% in 1991. and an expected 29 in 2035), and declining It is expected to decline to 4.7% in child dependency (from 47 in 1980 to 35 in 2026, to 3.5% in 2035 and to about 1991 and an expected 30 in 2035). 1% or less in 2100 according to dif- The median age of the labour force has boun THE AGEING OF THE ferent projections. rising and is expected to continue rising limn AFRIKANER POPULATION Because of their concentration 35 years in 1991 to 40 in 2035. The correspond- WILL LEAD TO in the older age groups, the voting ing increase for all other South Africans will l)« strength of Afrikaners (8.5% in from 31 to 35. The socio-economic and polilitui INCREASING OLD AGE I 1998) exceeds their share in the consequences of these changes and of differ- DEPENDENCY. total population of about 7%. ences between them and other South Afrii However, those under 30 years of erode the role and influence of Afrikaners in age are already declining, Annual society, additions to the Afrikaner voting population, The situation is complicated by the fact that which stand at 43 000 at present, are expected Afrikaners have throughout their existence to decline to 39 000 annually by 2020. intertwined their lives with vastly superior All other voters are increasing by over numbers of other South Africans. The)' have 900 000 annually at present and this number become dependent on them, and this interde- will increase to 1.4 million by 2020, and to 1.6 pendence has grown in the course of time. million in 2035. Afrikaner voting strength will Ultimately, it has led to political, educational decline accordingly, to 5.2% in 2020 and to less economic and other forms of diseinpowermont. than 4% in 2035. Problems of survival as a people are seen to

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 24 POLITICAL M 0 N I T O "R

Sections One and Two of the Accord concern- ,lS tliov have been at any previous ing regional and other forms of self-determina- f th.Vr histo v. If continued, interdepen- ,,.„• mean that the struggles of the past tion, and Section Seven regarding the problems ,overly, educational backlogs and sub- of the agricultural sector. have to be repeated. They also argue that a people needs a state to serve all its mem- VOLKSTAAT SUPPORTERS bers effectively, wherever they may THEORY AND PRACTICE ,ililova(i;W4Joi.se,vsthat: be, to meet its international obliga- MAINTAIN THAT THEIR

..jml,vi;r n ih I a i'ii• 'constructed', or 'made', tions, and to contribute in its own OBJECTIVE IS TO FIND AN y "invented mid recent, ethnic identity is way to development, competitive- ALTERNATIVE TO ness and international peace and "no It** inif""'1''"1 i0 its bearevs' and Proba' security. The view, or the fear, that APARTHEID, NOT TO lily moiv w. 1'iuhlems connected with it statehood can precipitate a return to haw no l>"!'lh allY destructive potential PERPETUATE IT. apartheid, is regarded as unviable than th^' ethnicity was not a con- and outdated. The Accord is clear slivetion... 'Iniu-jned' does not mean less enough on that point. rcaloriMi-orlaiil. ." Afrikaners by and large realise that cultural While some. Afrikaners view dispersal, interde- or territorial self-determination can endure and pendence. and th<• licence of a territory as fac- succeed only as the outcome of an internal set- tors which facilitate assimilation and under- tlement which conforms to the Constitution mine their iduplil1. .fid their future, others see and to international law. Settlement should be them as foundations on which a non-racial negotiated and implemented in a way that society can he built. Minorities and dependent would support and supplement regional politi- peoples leai1 assimilation, however, and they cal and economic development. International rarelv see it as an option. trends concerning the rights of nationalities According to the results of the 1994 and and of present day thought and practice regard- suhsequen1 elections, about a third of the ing national states should be kept in mind. Afrikatici popu!.' "'ir ^pport a volkstaat. They accept as its underlying philosophy the quest SITING THE VOLKSTAAT for effective and lasting freedom in a state with The question of where a volkstaat iwcogu ised so v erei gu I y. should be located is a sensitive mat- The. vision of a national home became a ter. There are two views on this LITTLE PROGRESS HAS pressing matter during the , when it issue, the first being that it should became clear that freedom through apartheid be located where there are many BEEN MADE IN CERTAIN was unlikely, and that continuation of the sta- Afrikaners, and the other that it SECTIONS OF THE ins qui) e.imld not be justified. should be where there are few non- ACCORD ON AFRIKANER Volkstaat supporters maintain that their Afrikaners. The term "many objective is, and always has been, to find an Afrikaners" usually means that SELF-DETERMINATION. alternative to apartheid, not to perpetuate it. there are also many non-Afrikaners iii'iy are concerned that their willingness to and the term "few non-Afrikaners" iihi;ii,.|e themselves from apartheid, and to par- that there are few Afrikaners. '"•'I'iite < onstructively in negotiation, govern- Gauteng has the largest concentration of ment and other democratic processes, have not Afrikaners, with about two fifths of the total been rewarded in the manner envisaged in the population. There are many other South Accord on Afrikaner Self-determination, forged Africans in the area as well. According to between the Freedom Front, the ANC and the recent estimates, 1,184 million Afrikaners and South African Government/ National Party, 23 5,881 million other South Africans were living April 1994, there in 1995, or, expressed as a ratio, Little progress has been made in terms of 201/1000. The ratios vary according to the his-

INDICATOR SA « Vol 15 No 3

25 POLITICAL POLITICAL N I 0 R tif 0~ N TOR

an additional 500 000 Afrikaners settle there torical location of living areas, from 58/1000 in Afrikaners. Boundaries have not been di tl)(ise who want it, that they wdl voluntarily in the next 30 years or so. Allowing urban Randburg in 1991 to 1108/1000 in urban ed, but proposals include a region fUil3i illenu-nlation of the idea, or at least for a moderate growth of other South Africans, Pretoria. Under the new dispensation these from the Orange River to the VVusi *upp " it that stability and development m they will then constitute about 80% ratios are bound to decrease. through the districts of Hopetown, the no««PP-,-ull! !)e an objective of volkstaat So lh of the population. Present strategies Opponents of the "many parts of Prieska, and Kenhardt. lin " ni and that Afrikaners will relin- 1 include preparations for the estab- Afrikaners" view hold that Gauteng Carnarvon, Williston. Calvinia, Clanwi' develoP""' ' other 0ppOSition to the con- THE ESTABLISHMENT OF lishment of a growth point in the is largely an urban area, and Vredendal, Vanrhynsdorp and the southum of South Africa. A VOLKSTAAT IN THE THE NORTHERN CAPE western part of the region and to entwinement and interdependence of Namakwaland, including HondekIip|);i;ij iement will have to be reached, GOVERNMENT HAS THUS Thirdlv- HSU'1, develop from there inland as Orania NORTH WESTERN CAPE are too complex and the structures Garies. Large urban places and traditional of the rights and interests of on the protection is developing inland from the east. FAR ADOPTED POLICIES too large to unravel there. Even if an of other communities have been excluded South Africans; The government's accep- CAN ONLY COME ABOUT Afrikaners who think they can area could be defined where Objections to this area include its ',,1 V(,lkslii.it-development as a national OF NON-INTERVENTION IN achieve this ambition draw inspira- IF AN ADDITIONAL Afrikaners have a substantial major- (far from the markets), its climate (low T"tivi- wid enable it to negotiate with them, ORANIA. tion from Theodore Herzl's dictum 500 000 AFRIKANERS ity, there will still be a numerically its size (146 000 km2, almost six times the , Lr botueen them and Afrikaner leaders, to with respect to the establishment of strong and influential non-Afrikaner Israel, or 12% of the area of South Alricdj, ' t() mutually acceptable transitional SETTLE THERE IN THE Israel: "If you will it, it is not a community. Under existing laws undeveloped state, and the smallness of "rnnwinrnts. nud to embody such arrange- fable". They believe that it can be NEXT 30 YEARS. and demographic trends, the minority will be Afrikaner population (23 000 Afrikaners in l1 ments in inteig"\ ernmental agreements and leg- accomplished peacefully as more able to outgrow the Afrikaners and make their compared with 123 000 [84%] other Soul ation'l>rm'ding for independence. The agree- and more Afrikaners and other state and freedom unsustainable. Africans). ml'nts should di-al, infer alia, with citizenship, South Africans begin to see the The Freedom Front has opted for a sparsely Proponents of this area maintain that employment. ::lUrinative action and restitution. advantages of stability and development in the populated region in the North-Western Cape, location and nature are essential features ofs® ' Finally. Hie establishment of a volkstaat in region. I where there are few Afrikaners and few non- tainablility, that it would be easier there to meet tlm North' WWem Cape can only come about if the requirements of the Constitution and oi L.OCATION OF PROPOSED VOLKSTAAT IN THE international law, and that it would be more NORTH-WESTERN CAPE negotiable than any other part of South Afriiii. Firstly, the establishment of a volkstaat ir this region rests on the assumption that the gov- NORTHERN CAPE ernment can be persuaded to accept a volistaa" there as a national objective. The Minister Constitutional Development has caution* Namakwaland referred to a national home for Afrikaners in I !>• region (not a volkstaat) as a practical possibility. The Northern Cape Government has thn- tar adopted policies of non-intervention in Omnia The town has about 600 inhabitants, it is run on volkstaat principles and set for increasing rura. expansion in the foreseeable future What is needed is a declaration of intent liy the government, on the lines of the Ba!iVn;r Declaration in 1917 with respect to a Jewis!; home in Palestine. This would send a signal to the international community, to developers and to Afrikaners who wish to settle in their own state. The public service would be drawn into

the planning and development of a home for s Afrikaners and in setting up the transit

'Piketberg political and social infrastructure.

Ceres Secondly, it is assumed that Afrikaners of ' different persuasion will come to accept a volk- WESTERN CAPE staat in the region as essential and practici

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 27 26 I ^^^^ LJPPI C^^^kLia M 0 ~~N T T 0 ~R

DRAWING THE LINE BORDER DISPUTES AND ELECTORAL POLITICS

KUSENIDLAMINI Political Researcher

• THE NEW PROVINCIAL BOUNDARIES WERE ESTAB- BLISTERED INTO VIOLENCE ON A NUMBER ( .

LISHED IN A RUSHED AND POLITICALLY-SKEWED SIONS. The SITUATION IS STILL VOLATILE AND UNRE-

PROCESS. SOLVED.

• THIS HAS RESULTED IN THREE SETS OF DISPUTES: The NORTHERN CAPE/NORTH-WEST DISPUTE IS THE

BETWEEN KWAZULU-NATAL AND THE EASTERN CAPE, MOST POLITICALLY SIGNIFICANT, AS THE NP FEELS I*

BETWEEN MPUMALANGA AND THE NORTHERN MAY WIN THE PROVINCE IF THE BORDERS ARE. Executive PROVINCE, AND BETWEEN THE NORTHERN CAPE AND DEMARKED IN A FAVOURABLE WAY. THE SHUBANE THE NORTH-WEST. COMMISSION HAS RECOMMENDED A REFERKNDUM BE Summary HELD PRIOR TO THE 1999 ELECTIONS, BUT THE SITU- • THE KZN-EC DISPUTE WAS REVIEWED BY THE ATION IS STILL UNRESOLVED. TRENGROVE COMMISSION, BUT ITS FINDINGS WERE

REJECTED BY THE ANC AND THE 1FP. STRONG RESIS- ALL OF THESE DISPUTES ARE FOUNDED IN APARTHEID

TANCE HAS BEEN EXPRESSED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS SPATIAL POLICY, ROOTED IN ECONOMIC IMEOUITIES.

TO BEING INCLUDED IN THE EC. AND LEND THEMSELVES TO FURTHER POLITICAL

EXPLOITATION. • THE MPUMALANGA DISPUTE INVOLVES THE

BUSHBUCKRIDGE AREA, AND LOCAL RESISTANCE HAS

AS THE 1999 ELECTIONS SPEED argues, when parties are unable or unlikely to j towards us, the issue of unresolved boundary exercise power at the national level, tlw disputes becomes critical, especially in the attempt to create domains within which they Northern Cape where it will tilt the balance of can do so. Competing and conflicting i'lli'irit- political power. Unlike the 1994 elections, next within and between parties and communities year's voters will only cast their ballots in need to be taken into account in analy; provinces where they are registered, making understanding provincial boundary disputes in border demarcation a far more significant issue. South Africa. The Ministry of Home Affairs has already begun If we want to explain the boundary disputes a campaign to issue IDs to all eligible citizens we should start by explaining the purposive and and the process of compiling voters' rolls is expressive actions of the people in the affected underway in all provinces. areas. Firstly, this means asking questions about Boundaries will therefore have a more sig- the cost/benefit analysis the people make U> nificant impact on the outcome of the 1999 elec- deciding to which province they want to belong- tions than they might have had in 1994. Indeed, This means taking rationality and interests 3s as the Oxford scholar, Gavin Williams (1994) significant factors at play in the boundary diS'

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28 POLITICAL M 0 N I 0 R

)(>s S«;i:inuliv, explaining people's expressive significant power relation aspect, especially in the post-modern era in which we live. The Simis rii'l 'i"!S taking context'in terms of both structuring of boundaries establishes patterns of ^"and space, into account. power and authority and confers the right to take decisions on some and not others. DRAWING LINES Boundaries are not, therefore, neutral geo- Boundary disputes must be viewed against the graphic entities. They should be seen for what Inrkdr"!' llie demarcation process which they are: powerful socio-political and cultural look pliii:f* in '">outk Africa between May and. inventions. They determine access to scarce November 1993. The Commission on the material and cultural resources in significant ijcniairalion of States, Provinces or Regions ways. The two main questions that should be (C;i)DK) was set up to oversee the national asked about any boundary structure are whether demarcation [irocess. It was the first-ever wide- it serves people's material and socio-cultural ly inclusive commission involving, as it did, all needs and whether it is consistent with their Zli parties in the negotiating forum. Members of liberty. the Commission were carefully selected to ruflticl the varied political, professional, race CRITERIA AND DISPUTES and gander interests in the country. The Multi-Party Negotiating Council set criteria Tho first task of the Commission entailed for demarcation which included travelling throughout the country to receive consideration of economic and written and oral submissions. In the first phase development potential, socio-cul- A SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF the commission received 304 written submis- tural issues, and administrative and THE PUBLIC HEARINGS sions and 8H oral submissions from different institutional capacity. However, the WAS THEIR CONSPICUOUS communities and interest groups, and in the compendium of criteria was more siicond phase 467 written and 107 oral submis- contradictory than coherent and, as DOMINATION BY WHITE sions were received. a result, "... could not generate a ESTABLISHMENT Tim Commission faced time constraints in single set of boundaries," (Muthien this process due to the pace of the negotiations and Khoza, 1994). INTEREST GROUPS AND and the targeted April elections. A significant After an independent profes- THE CONSPICUOUS aspect of the public hearings was their conspic- sional commission had completed ABSENCE OF BLACK AND uous domination by white establishment inter- the process, political tinkering SMALL COMMUNITY est groups and the conspicuous absence of exacerbated the problem. The black and small community representation process had been broadly accept- REPRESENTATION. (Muthien and Khosa, 1994], able to all parties at the negotia- The under-representation of African com- tions, but, "in the end, politicians munities at the Commission's public hearings realised how difficult it was to satisfy all con- may have beeu due to their exclusion from stituencies and that, by altering at one end of mainstream socio-political processes under the map, ripple effects were created elsewhere" apartheid, or to the fact that high illiteracy lev- (ibid). els made preparing technical submissions diffi- cult. Whate\ 'or the reasons, the Commission In the process of tinkering, the politicians tailed to reach most ordinary people from ignored production relations and added to M'ii'an communities to participate in the uneven development, which in turn laid the demarcation process. foundation for the current disputes. BOUNDARIKS & IDENTITY POLITICS This demarcation process has produced pro- Boundaries are largely about identity and cul- tracted boundary disputes, which have taken ture, which in turn have significant implica- different forms in different provinces. The dis- t]°ns for the production and reproduction of putes have shown how complex and sensitive regional consciousness. Cultural identity has a the issue of boundaries can be, especially in a

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

29 POLITICAL M 0 N I T O "R

deeply divided society like South Africa. Intra- The Trengrove Commission of Inquiry party and inter-party political considerations boundary disputes between the two provinces may be in direct conflict with the needs of ordi- recommended, in May 1996, that the V nary people and communities. Curie district including Kokstad and M,ilati(.|, In the new South Africa, ordinary people (KwaZulu-Natal) be incorporated into the have started to assert their right to choose their Eastern Cape. The Commission recon rulers or governors by expressing their prefer- that the Umzimkhulu district should be incor- ence to belong to this or that province. These porated into KwaZulu-Natal. issues have been manifest in different ways in Both the ANC and the Inkatha Frecdon. the unresolved boundary disputes examined Party (IFP) in KwaZulu-Natal rejected the (.on;, below. mission's recommendations. The ANC si necessary, a referendum should be held KWAZULU-NATAL AND EASTERN affected areas to resolve the issue. Both p.irtiijs CAPE positions were probably a reflection of the grass- In July 1993, the Demarcation Commission sub- roots rejection of the Commission's recommen- mitted its nine-region map proposal as a basis dations. for the country's provincial structure. This map In May 1996, Kokstad residents b had East Griqualand and Umzimkhulu in the copy of the Commission's report on the town Eastern Cape province. In November of the hall steps. They also embarked on a consume; same year the Multi-Party Negotiating Council boycott to highlight their grievances. MOM O' amended the map and incorporated East them rejected not only incorporation into the Griqualand into KwaZulu-Natal while leaving Eastern Cape but also the lack of consultation Umzimkhulu in the Eastern Cape. and community involvement in the demari.alidii

PROPOSAL FROM THE DELIMITATION COMMISSION, JULY 1993

u BOTSWANA J KPtolwtMg

r-v.

' PWV , EASTERN IT TRANSVAAL) A JSWAZI-I |NORTH WEST] LAND J

r-. | 4 KWAZULU/N ATALI

LESOTHO

NORTHERN CAPE

EASTERN CAPE

Eost MTTON London _J WESTERN CAPE T liml

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

30 POLITICAL MONITOR

province. Protest marches, and school and con- Residents of Umzimkhulu formed the sumer boycotts have been called by the pro-

Umzimkhulu Progressive Committee to "free Mpumalanga Bushbuckridge Border Committee, lrju/.inikhulu from the Eastern Cape." They held This dispute opened the way for the PAC to , protest march in November 1996 to demand move into Bushbuckridge to sign up new mem- j.,,incorporation into KwaZulu-Natal. In bers. How the dispute will ultimately affect vot- November 1996, the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal ing patterns remains to be seen.

S;ii

PROPOSED AMENDMENTS FROM THE MULTI-PARTY PROCESS, NOVEMBER 1993

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 31 POLITICAL M 0 N I f 0 R

lowed before an area or region can be transferred Commission. The Commission was briefs from one province to another, In terms of the investigate ways of resolving the dispm,. i Constitution, at least a two thirds majority in the incorporation of the townships of Kuru^ each one of the houses of parliament is required Taung and Pampiriestad from the North-\| to effect changes to provincial boundaries. into the Northern Cape.

Furthermore, a province's boundaries cannot be The ANC-NP dispute over this incor (>i,r,-iii amended without the consent of the relevant is perhaps the most politically significant n|'» provincial legislatures. The Constitution also current boundary debates. Its resolution >v provides for consultation with the people affect- among other things, determine two (TUr. ed prior to the alteration of boundaries. things: firstly, which party will win (

Things subsequently took a different twist in Northern Cape in 1999 and, secondly, by ,vj November 1995 when Premier Matthews Phosa margin, and the Mpumalanga legislature decided that In a February 1997 hearing, the Shuba the areas affected be ceded to the Northern Commission was told that the provincial exec Province, ostensibly to boost its economy. tive committees of the ANC in both provinc Subsequent to this decision a series of protest had agreed that the townships be incorpoiati marches ensued which forced the Mpumalanga into the Northern Cape province. The NP co legislature to withdraw its decision. tested this view. The incorporation of Kuruman and Taui NORTHERN CAPE AND alone would add about 800 000 people to tl NORTH-WEST Northern Cape population of about 750 In response to a joint request from the govern- effectively doubling the province's popi ments of the Northern Cape and the North-West, This would tilt the balance of power in President Mandela set up the Shubane ANC's favour and consolidate the

BUSHBUCKRIDGE REGION

NORTHERN PROVINCE

BLYDE RIVER CANYON NATURE RESERVE

NELSPRUIT MPUMALANGA

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

32 m POLITICAL M 0 N I f 0 R

of controlling the Northern Cape Cape province. On the face of it, it seems more „,()SPI!,:(S ['• „;,,!„, !!)!)!< elections. likely that most Taung people will vote for !"'"U'n' Department of Local government has incorporation into the Northern Cape. This will The started the process of implementing the not only be because they want to be part of the just Report's re .ommendations by amalgamating Northern Cape but also because the ANC, which MoiJiihisUnl with Kuruman. This process enjoys about 90% support in Taung, wants them to belong to the Northern Cape. The North-West should !«•' linkedin time for the affected Peo" to be regisli red under the Northern Cape's ANC has nothing to lose ceding these areas to iter's roll In October 1998. the Northern Cape and the troubled Northern Regardiny Taung, the Commission Report Cape ANC has a lot to gain. had recommended that a referendum be held to The other boundary disputes remain largely determine Ibe will of the people. Indications unresolved. If the Implementation of the are that a ' oni erted effort will be made to hold Shubane Commission recommendations results such ti lelercu-ium before the 1999 elections. in the successful resolution of the boundary dis- Provincial Affairs and Constitutional putes in the Northern Cape, a good precedent Development Minister Valli Moosa will soon will have been set for the resolution of disputes hold mi:i!li:i;4s with the Provincial Working elsewhere. Committees U'WCs) of both provinces to, among oilier dungs, discuss the referendum WHITHER BOUNDARY DISPUTES? and its lugis'.V-. The boundary disputes are, by and large, a Residents of Taung are divided on the issue symptom as well as a result of the socio-eco- of which province they want to fall under. nomic inequalities in South Africa, as they are Some. prolfT in 'emain in the North-West while rooted in the spatial policies of the apartheid others want to be incorporated into the past. They should be seen as a logical outcome Northern Cape. Mike Modise of Taung said, of the political struggle for access to scarce "IVe warn to bo part of the North-West, We are material resources, for dignity and for identity. Tswanas and the North-West is a province for The political tinkering with the 1993 demar- Tswanas". On the other hand, Tshepo Molefe, cation process meant that it fell short of undo- also from Taung. had this to say: "I want Taung ing the legacy of apartheid urban and regional to he part of the Northern Cape because my planning to which the disputes are ultimately brother and I work in Kimberley. Most people traceable. These struggles are set to intensify if in Taung work in Kimberley. They do their the gap between people's rightful aspirations Christmas shopping and other activities there and the government's capacity to deliver con- because it is nearer than Mafikeng". tinues to be constrained by social formations Political party lobbying will have an impor- tant impact on the results of a referendum on bent on maintaining past privilege and safe- the incorporation of Taung into the Northern guarding narrow political interests. I

REFERENCES

Ulamir.i, K. (1997} The Nats of Cosatu-Pondering the Africa Survey. Johannesburg, '•"!"ureci Vote. Indicator South Africa, Vol. 14, No. 3. Williams, G„ 1994: Lessons of War. Indicator South Elster, J, (1.994) Rational Choice Theory. Cambridge, Africa, Vol.11, No.2. Muthien, Y. and M. Khosa. (1994) Divided We Fall. Indicutor South Africa, Vol.11, No.3. Many thanks to Professor Peter Vale of the Centre for South African Institute of Race Relations (1997) South Southern African Studies in ,

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3

33 • POLITICAL M 0 N V T 0 "R

A PAPER TIGER? THE DECLINE OF THE SACP

PATRICK LAURENCE Financial Mail

• DESPITE IMPRESSIVE MEMBERSHIP ROLLS, THE SACP SACP'S TOTH CONGRESS MARKS THE HIGH WATEf

IS PROVING TO BE A PAPER TIGER. MARK OF COMMUNIST D1SEMPOWERMFN r. WITH me

FIERY ADMONITIONS OF MANDELA AND MBEKI. PETEP • COMMUNISTS ACCOUNT FOR MORE THAN A QUARTER MOKABA, WHO HAS PUBLICLY CALLED FOR THE EXCLU- OF THE ANC MEMBERS WHO SERVE IN PARLIAMENT, SION OF CARD-CARRYING MEMBERS 01" THE SACP FAR IN EXCESS OF THE NUMBER OF VOTERS WHO FROM ANC RANKS, LOOKED ON FROM THF rRONT RoVt, IDENTIFY THEMSELVES AS COMMUNISTS. THEY COM-

Executive PRISE JUST UNDER A FIFTH OF THE FULL CABINET. A The GROWING AFRICANISM ASSOCIATED WITH CLEAR MAJORITY OF MEMBERS IN GAUTENG'S CABI- MOKABA AND MBEKI RECALLS BLACK NATIONALIST Summary NET OR EXECUTIVE COUNCIL ARE PARTY MEMBERS, ANTI-COMMUNISM MANIFESTED AT EARLILI! STAGES 111

AND COSATU'S SECRETARY-GENERAL, ITS PRESIDENT, THE ANC'S HISTORY.

AND THE SECRETARY-GENERALS OF ITS TWO MOST THE SACP WILL BE OUTFLANKED ON THE I EFT B* A POWERFUL UNIONS ARE SACP. POPULIST PARTY IF IT DOES NOT RAISE ITS VOICE IN • SACP MEMBERS HAVE BEEN DISAPPOINTED BY THE DEFENCE OF THE POOR. BANTU HOLOMISA'S UNITED

SILENCE OF THEIR MOST PROMINENT COMRADES ON DEMOCRATIC FRONT COMES TO MIND AS A POTENTIAL

THE .NEO-LIBERAL GEAR STRATEGY, BUT DARE NOT CHALLENGER OF THE SACP'S ROLE AS TIIF CHAMPION

PRESS THEIR OBJECTION TOO HARD FOR FEAR OF PRO- OF THE DESTITUTE.

VOKING A SPLIT. THE ANC HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF

THIS QUANDARY BY CHALLENGING SACP CRITICISM OF

GEAR ON A NUMBER OF OCCASIONS.

ONCE REGARDED AS A POWERFUL, ANC is impressive by any measure. S manipulating force within the African National with Parliament, of the 490 members of lii< Congress, with its hands firmly on the levers of National Assembly (400) and the Cou power, the South African Communist Party Provinces (90) more than 80 are communists. (SACP) is today increasingly seen as a paper They account for more than a quarter oi 'In1 tiger. The SACP is certainly a major force with- more than 310-plus ANC members who M-IV: in in the ANC on paper. But if it had to stand 011 its the two chambers, far in excess of the minus- own, it is doubtful that it would be more than cule number of voters who identify thi another minor socialist party yearning nostalgi- as communists in opinion polls. cally for the past. In the cabinet, no less than five minister; communists. Comprising just under a fiflh 1,1 BIG NAMES the full cabinet. They are: Safety and Sec Minister Sydney Mufamadi, Trade and ludi Assessing SACP strength at face level, a head Minister Alec Erwin, Public Works Minister H! count of communists occupying important posi- Radebe, Welfare Minister Gerald ine Fraser- tions in the middle and upper echelons of the

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 34 POLITICAL M 0 N I f 0 R

H• and. must recently, the man nominat- tion election looms. Yet the suspicion persists NfuleW' that it is a paper tiger, that far from manipulat- [>(1 ,0 replace former Labour Minister Tito after he was appointed Governor of ing the ANC from within, it is sub- ^"^Krservr Bank-designate, Shepherd sumed by the ANC, that when the ANC cracks the whip its SACP ^(lialaiiii. Two deputy ministers are party mem- MOST SACP CENTRAL Kasriis, who serves as deputy to members fall into line. hers: Ki»wim COMMITTEE MEMBERS Diifeiit.''- Minister Joe Modise, and Essop Pahad, REDS AND THE MARKET the status of a deputy minister in SERVE IN THE ANC'S ivho " 1)1 The September Commission, a the ofliw deputy President Thabo Mbeki. NATIONAL EXECUTIVE report on the trade union move- just one ol die nine provincial premiers is a ment, written by nine leading trade COMMITTEE, INCLUDING (v Maim.eDipico of the Northern Cape. unionists, talks scathingly of the But below I he vvel of premier the number of THE SACP'S GENERAL SACP's failure to provide clear lead- parlv member is impressive, particularly in SECRETARY BLADE ership to the working class. The Qmteng - Uic ri< hest and, in many ways, most authors refer to "a perception that NZIMANDE AND HIS important of the provinces. A clear majority of the party has tended to lose its inde- mflinlior.s in C.iuteng's cabinet or executive DEPUTY, JEREMY CRONIN. pendent identity within its relation- council are party members, including Paul ship with the ANC." The same view Miishaliln, wii'i lieads the Department of Safety has been expressed more bluntly by iind Si!(aii,it\. and Jabu Moleketi, who is at the middle ranking members of the party. helm of the Department of Finance. Disillusioned by the failure of party notables in In llio .\V i self, communists occupy two Parliament and Nelson Mandela's cabinet to pivotalh important positions. The ANC secre- raise the Red Flag and openly champion the tary-general Kgalema Mothlanthe is a commu- communist cause, they accuse them of "singing nist and was, until the party's 10th annual con- the same song as the bourgeois." (Collins,1995). h'liace in July, a member of the SACP central rwiiiiiill'.'o. Hi- \eputy in the ANC, Thenjiwe The accusation, first made during the SACP's Mthinsn, is a member of the party's central com- ninth congress in 1995, is repeated today with mitloi! and a •! -n .g star within the SACP. Most, more vehemence. A central reason for that is the if not all, SACP central committee members government's economic policy of Gear (Growth, iiiiTi! in flic AM's national executive commit- Employment and Redistribution). Adopted in tee, including the SACP's newly-elected general mid-1996, Gear is seen by the party faithful as a siM.retary Blade Nzimande and his deputy, definite shift away from socialism towards a lummy Cronin. pernicious doctrine of "neo-liberalism." Heyond that communists occupy top posi- The silence of the communists in govern- tions in the ANC's trade union ally, the Congress ment on the change in ideological of .South African Trade Unions or Cosatu, which tack, epitomised by Mandela's - like the SACP - is a partner in the ANC-led tri- declamation that privatisation is the MANDELA'S DECLAMATION fundamental policy of the ANC, is partite alliance. Communists in Cosatu's ranks THAT PRIVATISATION IS irii.lmli! its secretary-general Sam Shilowa, its viewed by them as ideological apos- THE FUNDAMENTAL president John Gomomo, and the secretary-gen- tasy. The affable Erwin has taken a erals of its two most powerful unions, the lot of stick on that from his com- POLICY OF THE ANC IS rades in the party. ^•itiinwl Union of Mineworkers (Gwede VIEWED AS IDEOLOGICAL Mantashe) and the National Union of Metal- A former trade union leader who APOSTASY. workers of South Africa (Mbuyi Ngwanda). was prominent in the struggle The SACP, which boasts of 80 000 "signed against apartheid, Erwin has served "l>" members and an "activist core" of 14 000 as Deputy Minister of Finance and •'"embers (The African Communist, 1998), is a as Minister of Trade and Industry, but he has foice to reckoned with - on paper - as the new done or said nothing to distinguish himself from millennium beckons and the first post-libera- his non-communist colleagues. On the contrary

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35 POLITICAL

he seems to have embraced Gear, with its communists even purge themselves." emphasis on the need for accelerated privatisa- African Review, 6). tion, winning investor confidence and fiscal Communists who have dissociated discipline, with the enthusiasm of a selves from the party since the late capitalist neophyte. include Mbeki (whose father, Govan, was a Once a staunch advocate of wart of the party and a man who ehalle: AWARE OF A socialism and full of praise for the Mandela during political debates on KobUi.- FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN SACP as the only vehicle capable of Island), Jacob Zuma, and, many observe THE BALANCE OF POWER, achieving it, Erwin now says: "At believe, Deputy Finance Minister Giil the end of the day, we won't inter- Significantly Mbeki and Zuma today hold %1 ANC LEADERS ARE NOW fere with market forces" (Johnson, two top positions in the ANC, those of presii WILLING TO CALL THE 1996). and deputy president. SACP'S BLUFF. Author and political analyst The departure of these prominent \\C !i Hein Marais has described the situa- ers from the party ranks raises a question. If the? tion vividly. Referring to SACP MPs lure of office causes communists to desert My. who were elected on an ANC ticket, party, then, by the same logic, the thon»hi o> he writes: "When push comes to shove, most losing office in event of a rift between the party: don ANC headgear and stick their party caps in and the ANC may have the same result. their pockets." From that another conclusion emer| SACP national organiser Mandla Langa says Whatever its disagreements with the ANC, the of party members who hold parliamentary seats SACP dare not press its objection too hard for" or serve in the government: "We expect people fear of provoking a split which could see si, to understand that they are communists and to icant sections of its leadership divesting tl distinguish themselves in ways which show selves of their communist convictim:-. ullipr that they are communists. When there are seri- than face expulsion from the ANC and lo

ous differences with the ANC, they should public office. Aware of a fundamental shift in'; report back to the SACP instead of just toeing the balance of power in their favour, \\C lead- the ANC line." (Laurence, 1998). ers are now willing to call the SACP's bluff and challenge it to terminate the alliance if it ANC FIRST believes that the ANC has betrayed its commit- Inside the SACP the suspicion is strong that ment to the indigent historically disadvantaged their loyalty to the ANC supersedes their alle- victims of the apartheid. giance to the party. Behind the suspicion lurks a fear that if there is a parting of the CRACKING THE WHIP ways between the ANC and the Apart from Mandela's declarations elevating SACP, a majority of the SACP's'high privatisation to a core doctrine of ANC policy - COMMUNISTS WHO HAVE I ranking leaders in government will and thereby repudiating his emphatic affirma- DISSOCIATED remain with the ANC, as much tion of nationalisation on the eve of his release THEMSELVES FROM THE because desire to retain public from prison in 1990 - statements in which .WC office - and the status and perks leaders have thrown down a gauntlet to the PARTY SINCE THE LATE that go with it - as because of ideo- SACP include: 1980S INCLUDE MBEKI, logical conversion to the ANC's JACOB ZUMA AND GILL "neo-liberal" economic policies. 1. Mbeki's warning in June to Cosatu's central A former member of the SACP committee that the question which "faces all MARCUS. central committee, remarking on the of us ... is whether we should now say desertion from the party of some of farewell to the congress movement" which its members in the last decade, says: linked the ANC in alliance to the SACP and "When a liberation movement smells power, it "progressive" trade union movement. It is begins to purge itself of communists ... Some worth recalling that the warning was cleliv-

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36 POLITICAL M 0 N I T 0 R

>red in ('i|,|!l t resPonse to Cosatu's constant blacks") is described as an Africanist by some public carping about Gear. commentators. To label Mbeki an Africanist is not without Mandela's uncompromising defence of Gear justification. His rise to ascendancy 2. •i!, Ihe A\C's "fundamental policy" at the in the ANC, as its president and therefore as the man destined to SACI's i,lli! con8ress in June> ^is admoni- MOKABA'S CALL FOR THE tion of tlio for shouting "like opposi- replace Mandela as South Africa's EXCLUSION OF SACP tion parties" and his ultimatum to the party President after next year's general to ''lace lli** implications" of its behaviour election, has been associated with MEMBERS FROM THE ANC an increasing emphasis on filling and to clioo-e what role it wanted to play. STRIKES A CHORD IN top positions with Africans (as dis- SOUTH AFRICAN HISTORY. Mbeki's tough endorsement of Mandela's tinct from coloureds and Indians). stance, hi* denunciation of unnamed com- R W Johnson, of the Helen rades lor reportedly dismissing Mandela's Suzman Foundation, detects an remarks as the "rantings of an old man" and intensification of the struggle between the his chiding of the SACP for arrogating to SACP and "Mbeki's African nationalists." One itself the role of "revolutionary watchdog" sign of that, he believes, is the ANC's 25-strong for signs of ideological perfidy in the ANC. national working committee, which serves as an ANC inner cabinet. There are only two non- Two points are worth recalling about the SACP Africans on the committee, Gill Marcus and 10th Congie-^: seated in the front row of the Parliamentary Speaker Frene Ginwala. Johnson hall was I'eier 'vlokaba, the fiery former presi- attributes its composition to the power of the dent of the A\(. Youth League who has publicly "African nationalist whip." (HSF Focus, 1998). described I be \NC as a capitalist organisation Johnson notes that the seven of the first 10 and called for scrapping of the arrangement directly elected positions on the ANC national which allows dual membership of the ANC and executive were filled by non-Africans at the SAC!1; seated I• > the left of the podium weTe ANC's national conference in Mafikeng last several SACP heavyweights who occupy impor- December. Explaining the discrepancy, he tant positions in the ANC government but who, writes that for tactical reasons - the need to significantly, held their peace during Mbeki's stymie Winnie Madikizela- hard hitting address. Mandela's bid to stand for deputy Mokalia - who won notoriety by leading president of the organisation - the THE SACP HAS NOT black crowds in the chanting of the slogan "Kill "African nationalist whip" was not llii! farmer! Kill the boer!" - is seen by some cracked when the executive was ABANDONED THE FIGHT observers as one of Mbeki's hitmen. Be that as it voted in. AGAINST GEAR, BUT ITS may. his call for the exclusion of card-carrying If the spectre of past campaigns CRITICISM IS MUCH LESS members of the SACP from ANC ranks strikes a by African nationalists against the responsive chord in the corridors of South party haunts communists today, it VOCAL. Alvicim history. should in fairness be noted that the One thinks of the strongly Africanist orien- SACP has not abandoned the fight tation and anti-communist stance of the ANC against Gear. But its criticism is much less vocal Youth League at the time of its formation in the and certainly less audible in public. The stento- 1940s and of the formation of the Pan Africanist rian warnings from Mandela and Mbeki have Congress in the late 1950s in reaction to the per- been taken to heart. Thus criticism of Gear as ceived ascendancy of the white (and Indian) "an inappropriate macro-economic policy" in communists in the ANC alliance. Mbeki, who, the final declaration at the end of the party's m°re often than not, uses the term "African" in 10th congress is preceded by a declaration of an exdusive sense (meaning black indigens, or loyalty to the ANC. "We shall work tirelessly as what Ntatho Motlana has defined as the "black communists to ensure an overwhelming ANC

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37 POLITICAL MONITOR

electoral victory," the declaration says, noting hinterland and the urban slums.

loyally that the "ANC-led government has While the SACP will be compelled tot: spearheaded major socio-economic transforma- its voice in protest against the AM]'; !>')li(;y „ and tion." nurturing the emergence of a new •ICIJU tive black elite, it will have to be careful ah

PARTNERSHIP OF CONVENIENCE provoking a backlash from the ANi; wi A rift between the SACP and the ANC is not in could lead to a parting of the wa\s baton. tl

the offing in the immediate future and certainly party is ready to go it alone. The SA( ;i'

REFERENCES

The African Communist (1998) Deepening the NDR. October, No 149, Second Quarter. Laurence, P. (1998) Red Flag's Snapping in a Chilly Collins, D. (1995) Is the Party Over? Labour Bulletin, Wind of Change. Financial Mail, 3 July. May. Helen Suzman Foundation Focus Letter (1998) Johnson, R. W. (1996) The Best of Times, The Worst of Communists v African Nationalists, July. Times. Helen Suzmcm Foundation Focus Letter,

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 38 CAN WE AFFECT THE FLOW? WHAT, THEN, MUST WE DO? 41

HEDGE FUNDS AND OTHER MYSTERIES 48 ECONOMIC INDICATOR

EXCHANGE RATES Rands per $US

Source: Standard Bank Economics Division

WHILE THE RAND IS NOT ALONE IN ITS RECENT PRECIPITOUS FALL, THE CURRENCY CRISIS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD HIGHLIGHTS THE VULNERABILITY THAT COMES WITH GLOBALISATION. WHEN THE RICH GET RICHER AS THE MARKET FALLS, AND WHERE THE ECONOMIC CLOUT OF INDIVIDUALS EXCEEDS THAT OF NATIONS, COUNTRIES LIKE SOUTH AFRICA WILL HAVE TO COME UP WITH NEW WAYS OF PROTECTING LOCAL INTERESTS. ECONOMIC MONITOR

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS WHY WE SHOULD CARE, WHAT WE SHOULD Do

PATRICK BOND Wits University Graduate School of Public and Development Management

• THE RECENT INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS GIVES FINANCIAL DECISION MAKERS HAVE EXPOSED THE LEADERS IN SOUTH AFRICA A RARE OPPORTUNITY TO COUNTRY TO FORMIDABLE WAVES OF CURRENCY CHALLENGE THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS. SPECULATION, RAIDING OF FOREIGN RESERVES, INTEREST RATE HIKES, DOMESTIC CREDIT CRUNCHES t THE PRESENT CRISIS IS ONLY THE MOST RECENT AND STOCK MARKET PANIC. THE TIME TO DEBATE EVENT IN A SERIES OF SPECULATIVE ASSAULTS ON THESE POLICIES IS NOW. DEVELOPING ECONOMIES IN THE PAST DECADE. MUCH OF THE FLOW IS GOVERNED BY HERD INSTINCT. • ON THE LEFT, THERE IS CONFUSION ABOUT WHICH WAY FORWARD: PROGRESSIVE THIRD WORLD NATION- • THE FINANCIERS' $40 TRILLION IN STOCK AND BOND txecutive MARKFT INVESTMENTS AROUND THE WORLD DWARF ALISM VERSUS INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTION-BUILD-

SOUTH AFRICA'S ECONOMY, WHICH GENERATES ING. THE FORMER PARADIGM INCLUDES CAPITAL AND Summary AROUND $100 BILLION IN OUTPUT EACH YEAR. EXCHANGE CONTROLS SUCH AS "SPEED BUMPS", WHICH FORCE FOREIGN INVESTMENT TO REMAIN IN A • CAPITAUST CRISIS IS CYCLIC AND THE PRESENT COUNTRY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD, AND A RETURN DOWNTURN HAS EVOLVED STEADILY, SINCE THE TO A DUAL EXCHANGE RATE. THE LATTER HOPES TO 1970s, FROM OVER PRODUCTIVE SECTORS OF THE DEMOCRATISE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITU- WORLD FCONOMY INTO FINANCIAL MARKETS. THERE TIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF POOR COUNTRIES. IS MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THE BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO • RATHER THAN TRYING TO REFORM EXISTING INSTITU- BURST. TIONS, A MORE RELIABLE WAY FORWARD IS TO FOL-

• SOUTH AFRICA'S ENTRY INTO THE WORLD FINANCIAL LOW THE INSTINCTS OF MILITANT GRASSROOTS SOCIAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE LIBERALISATION FORCES ACROSS THE GLOBE AND DEMAND A NEW SYS- OF THE CURRENCY AND OTHER FORMS OF FINANCIAL TEM THAT SERVES HUMAN NEEDS, NOT FINANCIAL DEREGULATION HAS BEEN SUICIDAL. SOUTH AFRICA'S PROFIT.

CAPITALIST CRISIS IS NOW UBIQUITOUS need to adhere to "sound" international norms in the wake of a series of financial crashes that of economic and social policy. And yet the past have reached even Wall Street. The failure of twelve months or so of nearly unprecedented orthodox economic policy, under pressure from fragility since East Asia imploded, have thrown Underlying market dynamics (overproduction those norms very much into question, even °f goods and financial speculation), presents a within think-tanks of the First World establish- terribly important opportunity to South African ment. society. The crisis associated with financial globali- The most durable excuse offered for the gov- sation and ineffectual domestic policies may ernment's inability to deliver the goods and ser- pose serious problems for an ANC returning to vices reasonably anticipated by the electorate, its roots for votes next year. The phrase "There and for the current budget-cutting mania, is the Is No Alternative" - originally attributed to for-

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41 ECONOMIC MONITOR

mer British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, once-revolutionary parties remain in • though often associated with judgmental finan- the nation-state - China, Vietnam, An-oi.""! cial institutions based in Washington, New Mozambique, for instance - ideoloj York, London, Frankfurt and Tokyo (though just wandered over to hard, raw capitalism as much "homegrown" within our own Finance It is striking that the two contemporary!

Ministry) - can be less and less successfully ers who enjoyed the most impressive w0 deployed by status quo defenders. class support during their ascendance, It is nearly impossible for GEAR champions South Korea's Kim Dae Jung and to explain, in their own terms, why macro and Mandela, have most convincingly rolled microeconomic strategies based on attracting and played dead before financial speculators, investors, enhancing public private partner- the warpath. Said Mandela at the ships, ensuring business confidence, or other- Mercosur meetings of South American wise letting the markets work their wonders are "Globalisation is a phenomenon that we i now in tatters. deny. All we can do is accept it." The more enlightened of South African gov- ernment representatives should SPECULATIVE FRENZIES consider the period 1998-2000 as But surely there must be some feasible, ic response to the past few years' worth ol global IT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE their historic opportunity not only to reverse the domestic economic financial attacks on currencies and the ;nisli:nt\ OR GEAR CHAMPIONS TO slump, but also to make a case in programmes left in their wake - not to innntior EXPLAIN, IN THEIR OWN international fora such as the Non- the legacy of the previous 15 years oi 'Ihmi World debt crisis. The recent arc of linami,.! TERMS, WHY THEIR Aligned Movement (NAM) and the United Nations Conference on destruction began in Mexico (1994) and inmHta STRATEGIES ARE NOW IN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Brazil (1995), South Africa (mid- 1996), Eastern. TATTERS. - both of which Pretoria now chairs Europe (early 1997), Southeast Asia (late 1 '.)'•>;;: - and the International Monetary and back to Zimbabwe (late 1997). Fund and World Bank, at which This year, South Korea, Indonesia and Russia South Africa now temporarily enjoys an suffered severe beatings by speculators, as did a Executive Director's seat. Will the incoming host of smaller countries. For six weeks during Mbeki regime muster the courage and common June-July South Africa also appeared a basket sense required? case, as the Reserve Bank threw billions of dol- lars of reserves at the financiers, fruitless^ REFORMERS IN RETREAT ing to stabilise the rand back when it was valued The next months are a portentous moment, cry- at 5 to the dollar. (At 5.5 and then dropping to ing out for vision. Other once-clear voices of 6.7 at one stage, the exercise became a farce iim! Third World resistance to the New World Or.der Governor Chris Stals cried uncle and let it slide, are now discredited (Mugabe), ignored (Castro) providing only some very slight friction in lli'1 or hysterical (Mahathir). Consider a brief list of form of a massive increase in interest rates. leaders who came to power with overwhelming At the outset of the spiral, in 1995, Soros mass social movement (or populist) support but Fund Management executive Kerr Nielsor. then reversed allegiances: Aquino, Arafat, explained to Barrons how global speculators Aristide, Bhutto, Chiluba, Manley, Mugabe, had come to view emerging markets: "What is Ortega, Perez, Rawlings, Walensa (and the list being made clear by the Mexican problem is that could be extended still further over a period of in traded securities, you are going to have to be two or three decades). very careful about where these flows are going Selling out their working classes and poor and where the herd is. When everyone is wild to citizens on behalf of international finance is also get into a place, it is often better to just stay the general fate of so many labour and social away... What a lot of people have missed are the democratic parties in the West. Even where implications of the global flow of equity funds-

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42 ECONOMIC B| MONITOR mi

gW alignment, where the maniacs, like are rather more uneven. Indeed the very notion

rs are driving the flow of funds around of "uneven development" can be understood as the displacement, across space and time, of odd-" . these crisis tendencies - but never their resolu- •flu. liei'di of maniacs consist not only of tion, until, that is, the point at which the bubble •u funds" (such as mutual funds) in search bursts and financial froth is swept away to make f stock market deals, but commercial banks, room for a new round of capital accumulation. Investment banks, insurance firms, venture cap- The current capitalist crisis has evolved italists. Inundations and pension funds, which steadily since the 1970s, from overproductive often invest m government and corporate secu- sectors of the world economy - raw materials riliiis in so.'iirh of extremely high interest rates. and manufacturers alike - into financial mar- These rati* um in turn set by central banks des- kets (stocks, debt instruments, real estate and perate to ])i-i:si-rve their supply of hard currency other speculative outlets). Illustrating the haz- reserves, both by keeping local money inside ards of this process, historically, at least one llit! nnintn ..i\d attracting "hot money" which third of all nation-states fell into effective has the disadvantage of not only coming in at default during the 1820s, 1870s, mil. hut rushing out usually in a state of panic. 1930s and 1980s-90s, following an The linar.ciers' $40 trillion in stock and unsustainable upswing of borrow- bond niarki'! investments around the world ing in the context of overproduc- (lu'arf South Africa's economy, which generates "HOT MONEY" HAS THE tion; likewise corporations and aroiind SI (Hi billion in output each year. DISADVANTAGE OF NOT (rfMirge Soros himself conceded the menace consumers went to the mat. ONLY COMING IN AT WILL, associated with such size, scope and speed: What with the difficulty capital- "Tli(! jn'i'i nil' sector is ill-suited to allocate inter- ism now faces trying to move the BUT RUSHING OUT IN A crisis around, generalised financial national credit. It provides either too little or STATE OF PANIC. loo much. It does not have the information with collapse has ensued with the threat which to form a balanced judgement. Moreover, of global depression immediately it is uoi concerned with maintaining macroeco- ahead. It would be foolish to make iiomic balance in the borrowing countries. Its predictions given so many imponderables. But goals are to maximise profit and minimise risk. standing at the pinnacle of neo-liberalism (free- This makes it move in a herd-like fashion in market economics), the New World Order, the both directions. The excess always begins with Washington Consensus, and unprecedented overexpansion, and the correction is always bank power, even the man perhaps most respon- associated with pain." sible for the post-1970s revival of orthodox eco- nomic wisdom, Milton Friedman, recognised THE LOGIC: OF CAPITALIST CRISIS the underlying contradiction when he spoke Hi!! supposedly "new alignment" of investors just prior to the 31 August Wall Street crash: "If Cci|j;ilile of raiding national reserves at whim is anything, I suspect there is more of a bubble in m lact a variation on a classical process of cap- today's market than there was in 1929." '•iilist crisis formation, rooted in untenable If more evidence of potentially catastrophic flows from production to finance that appear to bubbling and bursting is required, a mid-1998 repeat themselves over periods of roughly 60 global scan offers plenty: years [give or take, depending upon institution- • Russian government interest rates were al factors and regulatory systems). tripled to 150% in May and then doubled Some call these periods "Kondratieff again to 300% in August, public expendi- Cycles" (after the Russian who first noticed ture was cut dramatically (leaving millions uiem) or "long waves" (distinct from short- of Russians without salaries and unable to wave business cycles), while others working borrow), huge IMF bailouts (approaching from a Marxist tradition insist that the upturns $20 billion) had practically no effect, the ai?d downturns of global capital accumulation stock market crashed by 70%, there was an

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43 ECONOMIC MONITOR

unprecedented run on the rouble, foreign stalled US congressional approval OF FL^J capital fled, and the country's fading politi- Multilateral agreement on Investment " cal leadership lacked either a way forward or track" trade deal-making authority lor IVi'sif a clear successor at a time of unprecedented Clinton, and an $18 billion recapitalisiitiJr' worker militancy. the IMF.

» Japan's attempt to kick-start its economy THE MODEL IMPLODES through major government investment ini- On top of all this, the intellectual foundiitionir, tiatives is evidently insufficient, with $1 tril- global financial capital - once called (J lion in bad loans still on the books of com- "Washington Consensus" - are now lupp|jn, mercial banks, a stock market down 60% Early this year, as it became clear that ortho^ from the late 1980s, and an embarrassing IMF austerity programmes were ampli . failure for US Treasury Secretary Robert East Asian crisis, a stampede of mainstream Rubin who in June expended money and economists began questioning the party credibility trying to halt the rapid decline in World Bank Chief Economist Joseph Stig the yen's value, all adding up to an estimat- Harvard Institute for International Developi ed 5% decline in GDP this year; Chinese head Jeffrey Sachs, former US Secretary i integration into world markets and privatisa- Treasury and State George Schultz (who even tion are expected to cost tens of millions of called for the IMF to be shut down), forme jobs, and options for sustaining the country's Secretary of Labour Robert Reich, and Hewv previously overheated growth have evapo- Kissinger, to name several whose censure oi rated, aside from the very dangerous option orthodox IMF logic received passing mention ir, of currency devaluation. the SA press. • South Korean financial markets plunged to In January, Stiglitz delivered a paper which their lowest levels in more than a decade; pointed out that "the policies advanced by the Washington Consensus are hardly complete and • In Indonesia, the passing of Soeharto's 32- sometimes misguided... the advocates of privati- year reign did not bring political stability, zation overestimated the benefits of privatiza- with capital flight from a finance sector tion and underestimated the costs... [below 40" largely owned by his family and friends one per year] there is no evidence that inflation is indicator of an economy that had still not costly,.. The focus on freeing up markets, in Ihi yet, after all the suffering, hit bottom. case of financial market liberalisation, • In South Asia, the financial fallout from eco- actually have had a perverse effect, contribi . nomic sanctions against nuclear weapons to macro-instability through weakening of the testing is as unpredictable as the next step in financial sector." the escalating arms race; and the East Asian Based on his Tecent surveys of macroeco- countries hardest hit by the 1997-98 financial nomic policy performance, Stiglitz is in i crisis remain committed to exporting their calling for the scrapping of GEAR, a policy two way out of the dilemma, at a time when of the Bank's own economists helped draft in world oversupply is already a problem and mid-1996, bad loans at domestic financial institutions Harvard's Sachs summed up the need to threaten the countries' remaining economic rethink the IMF's once-rigid commitment to fis- activity. cal and monetary strategies in East Asia: "The situation is out of hand... it defies logic to The advanced industrial countries of Europe believe that the small group of 1,000 economists and North America are also feeling the pressure, on 19th Street in Washington should dictate the not only in rapidly falling stock markets. The economic conditions of life to 75 developing US trade deficit remains enormous, and pop- countries with around 1,4 billion people- ulist opposition from both left and right has Without wider professional debate, the IMF has

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 44 J81S1L ECONOMIC M O.N 0 R

i i in imoose a severe macroeconomic particularly good, for notwithstanding impres- Hpcidud i" " ^ , sive gains in worker productivity over the past l)r;ic;tii»n on top of the market panic already few years the country has consistently scored ^inVlli'W |/lsianl economies'" between second and fifth least competitive of f '['In) (nsh of contraction are severe both to the 50 or so leading trading countries in World wllose .hP people unemployment rates are Economic Forum surveys since 1990. Siblingwhile the social waSe Plum" Partly as a result of falling exports to Asia * .„„| to the global economy, which is wit- and partly because prices of commodity exports nesiiiiH d 'aii'.adc trade disequilibrium as more will drop, South Africa's previously enviable [OiMlrii* begin to degenerate into competitive trade surplus could plummet this year. Specific currency dm aluations. sectors especially hard hit by the current finan- Hul woiim s and poor people usually get the cial fallout and the underlying glut of markets short cm' of (he stick when underlying crisis include base metals (copper, lead, nickel and K-ndonmos (..in no longer be moved around; zinc), automobiles and components, clothing dial is m;»' '"'d different is that not only does and textiles, diamonds (as luxury consumption Kissinger mourn the loss of Soeharto at the crashes) and gold (due to central bank sales). funds ol iiiMMisitive IMF economists, establish- Dramatic job losses continue as a result of ment economists from within the neo-liberal increased international competition, local eco- camp are now at each others' throats (witness nomic stagnation and private sector Sachs agarnst the IMF's deputy managing direc- investment in excessively capital- tor, South African-educated Stanley Fischer). intensive (labour-shedding) produc- LOCAL 1 Ml-'LI CATIONS tion processes. SOUTH AFRICA'S ENTRY In this niaeKl'om of blame-shifting and down- These trends are likely to get sizing, it is hard to escape the conclusion that worse as low-value East Asian cur- INTO THE WORLD South Africa's entry into the world financial rencies generate increased exports FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS system, through the progressive liberalisation and declining imports. Not only did BEEN SUICIDAL. of the currency and other forms of financial currencies crash in five worst-hit dercgulfiiim' i as been suicidal, Asian countries: South Korea, Without much thought - surrendering sim- Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and ply to the persistent drum-beat of the demand- the Philippines; Russia's currency ing li lancial markets - the main decision-mak- has collapsed, Japan's continues skidding and ers (Chris Liebenberg, Trevor Manuel, Alec even China is under pressure to devalue. The Ip.vin and Chris Stals) and their Washington vicious cycle could well lead to a 1930s-style iidWs:irs have subjected the South African deflation. (iconoQiy to formidable waves of currency spec- Already in March, Financial Times journal- ulation, raiding of foreign reserves, interest rate ist Martin Wolf posed the logical question: "Is a hikes, domestic credit crunches and stock mar- serious slowdown in the world economy ket panic. Business Day summed it up in a May inevitable? No. But the answer is 'no' only if editorial; "South Africans are fast discovering aggregate demand is sustained, even against the the downside of globalisation: rioting in down- background of Asian adjustment." That answer town Jakarta can mean bad news for mortgage may still, potentially, be valid, though signs are holders in Johannesburg." increasing that it is already too late. Broader economic effects of the global crisis Means by which South Africa can assist mclude stagnant GDP growth, declining trading rejuvenation of demand - through promoting competitiveness, and sectoral crises. At around debt relief and international regulation, and by °-5%, South Africa's 1998 GDP growth is likely serving as a model of a country which, having to be far lower this year than anticipated, either tried IMF-style reforms and found them wanti- hy GEAR (3.8%) or in last year's estimates. The ng, is prepared to consider a different approach economy's competitive fundamentals are not - are worth exploring in public debate.

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45 ECONOMIC MONITOR

A WAY FORWARD? down, even the IMF acknowledged t

What, then, is to be done? "Reform" of the inter- ability of controls on inward financial flow. national financial system is very much the rage Moreover, as recently as 1990, 35 eoum - witness Alec Erwin's call at the NAM summit (including SA) had a dual exchange

for a global conference - but there is not much (although judging by prosecutions of i.ii]T(.nt,

hope for sufficient control systems at this stage, "roundtrippers," the apartheid-era KcSnrvi given the international balance of forces. Bank did not take enforcement seriously a^j To illustrate, when the British Common- indeed was a large part of the problem) and wealth recently set up a group to study the could be readily reinstalled. The SACP

impact of hot money, they chose as its chair Cosatu are making an increasingly vocal i use jg. Chris Liebenberg, the Finance Minister from capital controls. 1994-96 who retired South Africa's main But if the pedigree for national-level regula- defence against hot money, the financial rand. tion of capital is strong, there are also Left ^ Liebenberg also chairs Nedbank, one of South es insisting upon coordinated global ailio Africa's more notorious (and, histor- way of reforming existing embryonic glnbj ically, foolhardy) foreign specula- state agencies. Can the IMF, World Bank, Ban1,, tors, whose 1985 ventures into New for International Settlements, World T OPTIONS FOR GLOBAL York nearly brought South Africa a Organisation and United Nations ever becairn- CAPITAL REGULATION DO full- fledged financial meltdown. more than the global wing of the western estab- On the Left, there is confusion lishment? Can they play host to a potential EXIST. about which way forward: progres- democratic global state which, sometime ir sive Third World nationalism versus next century, progressive parties across the international institution-building. world contest through democratic ballot? The two camps have very different instincts, Yes, insist Left internationalist reformer* with the former taking a page from the 1933 (based largely in a plethora of Washingtor Yale Review notes of John Maynard Keynes, the NGOs), even now we can build democracy into economist whose work on the Great Depression the global institutions. The World liciiik for revolutionised his discipline: "I sympathise instance, is now more green, gender-conscinm. with those who would minimise, rather than transparent and open to community participa- with those who would maximise, economic tion in the wake of a decade of intensive anti- entanglement among nations. Ideas, knowledge, Bank activism. (Too bad Bank economic strate- science, hospitality, travel - these are the things gies are still the same, the presence of Stiglite which should of their nature be international. notwithstanding.) But let goods be homespun whenever it is rea- Options for global capital regulation do sonably and conveniently possible and, above exist, Nobel economics laureate James Tobi® all, let finance be primarily national." points out with his proposed 0,5% 1.i\ on bitt- Given the hostile balance of global forces, ing and selling foreign exchange. American say many Left nationalists, it is vital to reclaim University's Howard Wachtel advocates a strat- the nation-state as the site at which democratic egy of G-8 country coordination of interest rate contestation of public policy can proceed. and exchange rates, which would act as a foun- Capital and exchange controls to guard against dation stone to stabilise all other volatile cur- speculators are more and more widely accepted, rencies in the absence of the global even winning a grudging nod from Business Day exchange rate system which worked well from editorialists. "Speed bumps" - which force for- 1945-73. eign investment to remain in a country for an Third World debt relief or even cancelh extended period, as Chile has done - are expect- (including apartheid debt) is another area of ed to get the endorsement of Liebenberg's urgent global action, but here, South Commonwealth commission. (This is uncontro- retreat from leadership at the NAM conference versial, for after the 1994-95 Mexican melt- was noticed.

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 46 IBEM^^^ ^^^ f^S CH^ M1 M 0 • N I T 0 R

•j-)u.Si! reforms present certain opportunities cial profit.

(jrlifl reformers to "engage" (usually a verb The period of consciousness raising we are "•'seriated with retreat] global capital, and per- now witnessing, like the long ebb-and-flow i" s to restore some international economic decades of South Africa's liberation struggle, •labilily. Would this, however, simply set the will entail all manner of organic demands aris- %(> for a resurgence of the 1980s-90s neo-lib- ing from grassroots circumstances. The process i>nl formula, with its declining standards of liv- prevents an easy global blueprint from emerging ing Ibr workers (even the US working class lost at this stage. ?0°<> >,S PER CAPITA hicome F°RRN 1975-95), But at the same time, the establishment must "liioiailation of Third World societies, and trash- avoid repressive reforms - in the spirit, really, of ino of sjlobnl ecology? Given their abysmal track the Botha regime's decaying strategies - and record, can we expect the key international leave options open for democratic institutional institutions to do anything more than bail out forms that are global and national in scale, as iilnbal capital? well as for space (currently denied under the In contrast, a more reliable way forward is to World Trade Organisation) for communities to follow the. instincts of militant grassroots social control their own capital, !oiw.h across the globe - the Zapatistas of Certainly holding actions such as a Tobin Chiapas. a land movement in Brazil, many of Tax, interest and exchange rate coordination, South Africa's trade unions and the growing debt relief and greater space for national curren- popular movements of Asia, to name a few of cy and capital controls are all vital. But without the most prominent - which are turning their nurturing the development (and post-develop- attention more and more to the threat of ment) visions of social, labour, environmental liiianee.-diiven globalisation. and women's movements, the establishment With social struggles increasingly throwing politicians and economists who redesign the mil new options, it may not be too long before international financial system in coming months top-down reformist solutions, aimed largely at and years - no doubt with some leading South stabilising ,md lubricating a world economic Africans having a say - would probably only system which has become profoundly skewed confirm the tendency towards barbarism, into and unequal over the past decades, are which so many societies seem to periodically answered h\ popular, democratic demands for a degenerate under conditions of global capitalist new system that serves human needs, not finan- crisis. I

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LESS IDEOLOGY, MORE COMMON-SENSE FINANCIAL GLOBALISATION AND THE CURRENCY CRISIS

VISHNU PADAYA CHEE Centre for Social and Development Studies University of Natal, Durban

• BOTH NET FOREIGN CAPITAL FLOWS AND FOREIGN • HEDGE FUNDS, SPECIALISING IN HIGH-RISK, SHORT-

DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) INCREASED DRAMATICAL- TERM SPECULATION FOR THE ULTRA-RICH, HAVE MORE

LY IN THE 1990S, INCLUDING FLOWS FROM DEVEL- THAN DOUBLED IN NUMBER AND ASSETS SINCE 1996

OPED TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, ALTHOUGH THE PERFORMING WELL REGARDLESS OF THF DIRECTION

FDI COMPONENT REMAINED SMALL FOR AFRICA. OF MARKETS, THEY BORROW MONEY TO SELL SECURI- TIES THAT THEY DO NOT OWN IN AN TICIPATIOjl Of • UNLIKE LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT IN THE 1980s, PRICE FALLS. FLOWS IN THE 1990S TOOK PLACE UNDER CONDI-

TIONS OF MACROECONOMIC STABILITY. • GLOBAL SPECULATION HAS INCREASED DRAMATIC/ILL* IN RECENT YEARS, WITH LESS THAN 2°O 0" GLOBAL • THIS FLOW HAS BEEN FACILITATED BY THE ABOLITION CURRENCY FLOWS FINANCING TRADE IM REAL GOODS OF CONTROLS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT TRANSACTIONS AND SERVICES. HOW ALL THIS TRANSLATES TO EMFRG- AND THE GRADUAL MOVE TO CAPITAL CONVERTIBILI- ING MARKETS IS NOT CLEAR. TY, SOMETIMES UNDERTAKEN VOLUNTARILY AND • ALTHOUGH SOUTH AFRICA STOOD OUT FAIRLY SOMETIMES AS A REQUIREMENT OF STRUCTURAL AGAINST THE FIRST WAVE OF THE EMERGING MARKETS ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMMES. CRISIS, UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT BOTH GLOBAL AND

• TWO MOVES MAY FURTHER FACILITATE THESE FLOWS: LOCAL CONDITIONS MADE IT RIPE FOR SPECULATION.

THE IMF'S PROPOSAL TO REQUIRE ALL MEMBER GOV- The FINANCIAL CRISIS HAS SEVERELY AFFECTED THE ERNMENTS TO REMOVE CAPITAL CONTROLS, AND THE REAL SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY. OECD'S MULTILATERAL AGREEMENT ON INVESTMENT • DEBATES ON HOW TO AVOID A GLOBAL SLUMP CONTIN- WHICH WOULD REPLACE ALL EXISTING BILATERAL UE ON THE LEFT AND THE RIGHT: WHETHER AFFECTED INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS WITH ONE GLOBAL AGREE- COUNTRIES SHOULD KEEP INTEREST RATES HIGH AND MENT. * DEFEND THEIR CURRENCIES OR DROP THEM TO PRO-

• THIS INCREASE IN CAPITAL FLOWS REFLECTS THE MOTE REAL GROWTH; WHETHER TO RESIRICT THE

GROWTH IN BOTH THE NUMBER AND FORMS OF NEW FLOW OF FOREIGN CAPITAL THROUGH SPECIAL

FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, INCLUDING "HEDGE EXCHANGE TAXES AND EXCHANGE CONTROLS, OR TO

FUNDS". KEEP THE FLOW OPEN.

THE GLOBALISATION OF FINANCIAL lennium, The most obvious evidence lur l'11' relations "has been proceeding apace for well has been the growth in net foreign capital II"" over a century already. However, the depth, Growth in capital flows has occurred iiinoo?. reach, speed and core character of financial industrialised countries between indu-!na>|;>'"" flows across national boundaries has altered and developing (transitional or eiucrg"^' dramatically in the closing decades of the mil- economies (DTEs); and to some extcii! i'u,!'

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48 ECONOMIC M 0 IM I T 0 R

-ipon" developing countries in so-called South- connections" (Krugman, 1998:28). So'i/ll" investment relations (Padayachee and The acceleration in the flows of foreign cap- y-ilodiii. I!l(l7). Capital flows to DTEs in particu- ital to the DTEs has been facilitated by a number lar have changed significantly since the 1970s, of important developments. These

al](| iijwu the current crisis in these markets, it changes, including the abolition of

js ihiwii dm elopments that are worth some addi- controls on current account transac- lipnal commentary. tions and the gradual move to capi- THE FLOW OF FOREIGN During Ihe 1970s, net capital flows to DTEs tal convertibility have contributed CAPITAL TO THE DTES

.(,rn low in to the lowering of domestic barriers dollar terms and as a percentage of HAS BEEN FACILITATED I'omiiined GDP - $16 billion annually and 0.8% to foreign capital of all kinds. BY THE ABOLITION OF respective!}. This rose only marginally in the While these policy changes have jijjjO.s. a\ eraging 1.1% of GDP. In addition, in been undertaken voluntarily by CONTROLS ON CURRENT some DTEs, they have been forced both thi'M' decades FDI flows to DTEs were ACCOUNT TRANSACTIONS extremely low. upon others as part of IMF or World AND THE MOVE TO This picture changed markedly in the 1990s. Bank adjustment programmes. Not capital flows to these countries more than Knight has observed that "[ojver CAPITAL CONVERTIBILITY. doubled from $71 billion in 1990 to $157 billion the 45 years to 1990, a total of 68 in 19111, rising to R200 billion in 1996. Within IMF member countries, including this, FDI flows increased rapidly, from 0.3% of 35 developing countries, accepted UTtiCDP in 1990 to 1.6% in 1996. the obligations of Article VIII of the IMF's The largest share of these flows in the early Articles. By contrast, during the period 1991-96, l!)!l()s weir to Asia and Latin America, and lat- 52 DTEs accepted Article VIII," (1998:1187). terly lo the transition economies in eastern Article VIII requires a member to refrain from liurupi! and elsewhere. Net flows to Africa have imposing any restrictions on payments for exter- iiei'.n shiggi-h in this period, and the ratio of FDI nal current account transactions. to total flows for Africa declined between 1990 The removal of these barriers on current and Willi (Knight, 1998:1187). account payments has, in some DTEs, also been linlike the financial crisis in Latin America accompanied by liberalisation on capital in the 1 Wills, where most foreign borrowings account transactions, either as a deliberate poli- mo made by governments in conditions of cy change or, given the difficulties of distin- iiiHc.roeconomic instability, most foreign capital guishing between some current and flows lo Asia in the 1990s were undertaken by capital transactions, by default. I ho private sector in conditions of macroeco- Two initiatives that are currently NET CAPITAL FLOWS TO nomic stability, i.e. when the 'fundamentals under discussion might further open were right'. Economic growth was high, infla- up global financial markets. The first DTES MORE THAN is the IMF's attempt (despite the cri- tion was low, budget surpluses (or low deficits), DOUBLED BETWEEN 1990 and rising (or stable) reserves were the order of sis in Asia) to amend its Articles of AND 1991. tin: day (Wade and Veneroso, 1998:4). Agreement to require all members If there was a problem with these countries' governments to remove capital con- «;oii(nnii<- it was that the regulation of their trols and adopt full capital account domestic banking and financial systems in some convertibility. cases did not develop sufficiently quickly to Secondly, the OECD, despite some resis- accommodate the consequences of rapid capital tance, is pushing ahead with negotiations on the mflows. To this must be added a related problem Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI) originating on the political side - what Krugman from which negotiations developing countries tas recently called the "dark underside" to Asian are excluded. MAI aims to replace all existing values - where, for example "dubious invest- bilateral investment agreements (some 1500 by ments.,.were cheerfully funded by local banks, one estimation) with one global agreement. The as 'ong as the borrower had the right government intention is to liberalise all direct foreign invest-

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49 ECONOMIC MONITOR

ment restrictions, in this way ruling out the cial flows that are speculative in nal»v(> j..

scope for government intervention to direct or against flows to finance trade). One iridic;,(j0p

proscribe certain kinds of foreign investment, as of this is provided in the work of Aineriri!! some developmental states have Economics Professor, David Felix. In ^ done (Wade and Veneroso, 1998:19). according to Felix, the annual value n! world The "spectacular" increase in exports was $1.3 trillion whilst annual THE MULTILATERAL capital flows to DTEs has also foreign exchange transactions were $4.6 trill AGREEMENT ON reflected important financial inno- By 1995, world exports were $4.8 trillion, ] INVESTMENT AIMS TO vations within developed countries. annual global forex volume had jumped to •

One such set of innovations has staggering $325 trillion. In other words, "( LIBERALISE ALL DIRECT been the terrifyingly dizzying $1.50 of every $100 of foreign exchange FOREIGN INVESTMENT growth in the number and forms of ments was for financing trade in real goods RESTRICTIONS. new financial instruments, assets, services", the rest being used for investrien! funds and traders. In one view, spec- and speculative purposes. ulators, including those "mysteri- Another indication of this trend is the rapid ous" new financial vehicles called "hedge growth in daily global forex turnover in relaliun funds" are central to an understanding of why to global official forex reserves. In 1977 glolui the crisis in emerging markets has been so deep, forex reserves were $266 billion and dailv glob- intense and widespread. al forex turnover was only $18 billion Bv 1095 the value of daily forex dealings ($1 300 billion! HEDGE FUNDS had exceeded world official forex re^rvps There are now reputed to be about 4 000 hedge ($1,202) (Khor, 1997). funds - more than double the number two years Grilli and Roubini point out that "most nl ago, specialising in high-risk, short-term specu- the turnover in the foreign exchange markets N lation. The biggest of these is George Soros' generated by financial operations and a liiv»i' Quantum Fund, which is said to have had more part of these are of a speculative nature.' than $11 billion in investor funds a few years (1993:107). These figures give some indication ago. Total hedge fund assets have grown from of how difficult it is for central banks to light oft under $150 billion in 1996 to an estimated $400 sustained efforts by powerful speculators (who billion by mid-1998. Traditionally, exercise control over a significant part nl tlins1' they have been pitched at the super- flows) to influence the level of particular cur- rich, although some funds now rencies. A HEDGE FUND WITH $15 require a minimum investment of Debate about the impact of speculative activ- BILLION WORTH OF (only!) $250 000. ity and hedge fund operations continues - wliil'1 INVESTORS MONEY CAN Their appeal is superior perfor- most point to their destabilising effect in the mance virtually regardless of the recent crisis, others have noted that their LEVER UP TO $150 direction of markets. What they do actions often simply speed up policy changes to BILLION OF RESOURCES. (in essence) is to borrow money to correct economic imbalances and weakucssi'!" place leveraged bets and sell securi- which would have been inevitable, ties that they do not own in antici- Specifically in regard to their impact <"'• pation of price falls. Leverage is key: a hedge exchange rates, Grilli and Roubini's empirical fund with say, $15 billion worth of investors work demonstrates that, at least for those OI.C" i money can lever up to $150 billion of resources, countries studied, financial liberalisation ana giving it enormous clout (Khor, 1997). The increased speculative activity may (by increas- industry is largely unregulated - both at nation- ing uncertainty in markets) increase exchange al and international levels, and there are no rate volatility in the short-term, while "in the signs that regulation is on the cards.. medium-long run an increase in the number ol The growth of hedge funds has contributed traders should thicken otherwise 'thin' markets to the rapid increase in the share of global finan- and tend to reduce the volatility of exchange

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50 ECONOMIC M 0 , N I T 0 R

Asian currency, equity and bond markets have BW."H'I«3:107). all come under severe pressure in the year since Il(nv all this translates to emerging markets then. The debate about the underlying cause of ;s |U)i clear. Most hedge fund activity occurs the crisis remain unsettled. ivithi" markets in the developed nations. In general, it is argued that the cause of the jfoweV'T. in the last few years, an environment crisis revolves around some combination of of rnlalhoiv low interest rates in the US and internal factors (instability in the I'lirnpe and the perceived need to diversify logic of the Asian accumulation portlolius led some fund managers to seek out strategy, weaknesses in the banking higher (albeit riskier) yields in DTE bond and HEDGE FUNDS' DEALINGS and regulatory system, the impact of ,.qiii(y markets. HAVE BEEN BASED ON AN 'crony' capitalism etc.) and global ' The\ have done so following careful and on- developments (rampant financial ESTIMATION OF THE doiiig sluditss and monitoring of the underlying liberalisation, the power of specula- polilical and macroeconomic conditions in CAPACITY OF tors, the absence of any effective these D'lT.V Their dealings have invariably been GOVERNMENTS TO international financial regulation based on ail estimation of the willingness and and leadership). DEFEND THEIR cajMicitv ol the governments and central banks South Africa stood out fairly in these i ountries to defend their currency, CURRENCIES. well against the first wave of the equity and bond markets. Their resultant activi- emerging markets crisis, but a com- ty has introduced some of the dynamics of bination of factors, including the threat of glob- developed country financial trading into (not al deflation (which would not have been good alwavs well-regulated) DTE financial markets. for a major commodity exporter like South CRISIS IN EMERGING MARKETS Africa); some negative sentiment about the per- Financial and currency crisis in its "present formance, and fundamentals, of the local econo- form" began in Mexico in December 1994, my; and concerns in some quarters that the spread to Brazil in 1995, hit South Africa briefly South African Reserve Bank did not put up in early 1996, and eastern Europe in early 1997. interest rates quickly enough (a view expressed it reached some of the highly successful Asian recently by Jeffrey Dennis of Deutsche Morgan developmental states only in the second half of Grenfell), paved the way for an attack on local 1!I'.I7. bond and currency markets. The contours of the Asian financial and cur- The largely externally-generated uncertain- mncy crisis are likely to be familiar to most ties in this period created a space into which readers by now and will not be recounted here some speculators and hedge fund operators m any detail (see for example the Asian crisis were quick to jump. Believing (incorrectly as it website - http://www.stern.nyu.edu/-nroubi- turned out) that the Reserve Bank ni/asia/asiahomepage.html). A series of curren- would not be able to let interest cy depreciations have swept over Thailand, the rates rise in line with market condi- EXTERNALLY-GENERATED Phillipines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore tions, that it may not use (scarce) UNCERTAINTIES CREATED since the middle of 1997, sparking off a chain of foreign reserves to support "orderly A SPACE INTO WHICH events that have severely dented growth conditions in the foreign exchange prospects in many of these economies. market", and that it would not pro- SOME SPECULATORS Thus, for example, compared to America's vide forward cover to South African WERE QUICK TO JUMP. Worst post-war recession year -1982 - when the importers and other users of short- economy shrank 2.1%, Indonesia's GDP is term foreign finance, these specula- expected to fall by as much as 15.1% in 1998 tors took positions against the rand, leading to (Krugnian, 1998:28). increased pressure on the currency in late June Initial attempts by governments and central and early July (SARB, 1998). kanks in east Asia to shore up and defend one In short, after investing R16.3 billion in local Mother's currencies proved unsuccessful. bonds in the first 4 months of 1998, foreign

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51 ECONOMIC MONITOR III ••••11•1 •• HI

investors reduced their bond holdings by R3 bil- both by the community of academic lion in May, R4 billion in June and by a further and by policy makers at national and R5.4 billion in July, The exchange rate of the tional levels. rand, measured on a trade-weighted basis against a basket of the currencies of South "ACADEMIC" ALTERNATIVES Africa's major trading partners, depreciated by Many economists, including some 21.1% from 31 December 1997 to 18 August Fischer, Vice President of the IMF

1998, It is interesting to note that throughout Lawrence Summers, the second in l< mimaml a! most of this crisis, non-residents continued to the US Treasury, have maintained thai tin. increase their holding of South African equities in which the Fund has responded to I he

(SARB, 1998). crisis is correct: lend IMF funds i() flf|,,,i(^ Again, like in Asia, the financial crisis has countries to tide them over the crisis, duinand severely affected the real South African econo- (conventional) economic reform and the |.|jmi. my. Interest rates were allowed to rise to protect nation of any elements of "cronv < apiUism" the external value of the currency; by early July and require countries to stick with high inhnust the prime rate (the rate at which commercial rates to keep capital within the uuintiv and banks lend to their best customers) rose to a entice new funds in. punishingly high 24%, the highest Some have attacked this strategy arguing that ' level in 10 years. the IMF should not have allowed aliirlcd coun- THE HONG KONG Estimates of the overall econom- tries to devalue; that is, the\ J.i

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 ECONOMIC MONITOR

example. "Chile actively discourages Krugman published an open letter to the i capital inflows" via various controls, Malaysian Prime Minister stating that he "fer- r requiring that 30% of all non-equi- vently" hoped that the policy package would pay . [apila'l entering the country must be deposit- off (Khor, 1998). Although it is too early to say '.jfj],,!]! interest at the central bank for a year whether there will be success, the London-based rating agency, Fitch IBCA, immediately down- licvnoinif1!- 14 March 1998). graded Malaysia's sovereign debt rating, arguing Howard Wachtel, an economist at the that the measures "undermined investor confi- \mfiricHii I niversity in Washington DC, has dence" (Business Report, 1998), demonstrating ••(Ivouiili'1' a strategy for G8 countries to co-ordi- one potential danger of such unilateral action. nate iutcrcsi rates and exchange rates in a way jvhit.li' would act as a foundation stone to sta- Other countries have followed, including bilise all oil;, r volatile currencies in the absence "free-market champions" Hong of tiw "lobal fixed exchange rate system..." Kong and Taiwan, The Hong Kong (Boivl. I'«»»;• authorities reputedly spent over $14 TA1WAN AUTHORITIES I'aul kni;."nan has proposed what he himself billion to buy selected stocks on the TOOK STEPS TO PREVENT Hang Seng in order to prop up the lias termed "radical solution" - the (tempo- ILLEGAL TRADING OF rary) inlroiliiction of exchange controls, which index in an attempt to defeat specu- jvould .illov for a severing of the "automatic" lators who had placed bets that the FUNDS ALLEGEDLY link helv.ee:1 a currency and the domestic inter- index would fall. It also introduced MANAGED BY GEORGE est rate. a variety of other direct measures on Although he is the first to recognise that SOROS, WHICH HAVE exchange controls work badly, being subject to share transactions (among them, abuse and generating distortions of all kinds, he that shares in a company can only BEEN BLAMED FOR THE be sold short when they are rising). asks "...when you face the kind of disaster now STOCK MARKET FALL IN occurring in Asia, the question has to be: badly Taiwan authorities in early THAT COUNTRY. compared with what?" (1998:32). September took steps to prevent ille- gal trading of funds allegedly man- POLICY RESPONSES aged by George Soros, which have Some of these ideas, such as those advocated by been blamed for the stock market fall in that Krugman, have been taken up by a few of the country (Khor, 1998). In mid-September the new most affected Asian countries in recent months. Russian Prime Minister announced a series of Malaysia's is arguably the most radical. The measures that would re-assert greater state con- package of wide-ranging controls over foreign trol over that battered economy. exchange and new rules for the stock market include: UNORTHODOX SOLUTIONS All in all, what may be termed rather unorthodox * the official fixing of the ringgit at 3.80 to the measures are being proposed (including by dollar, which is intended to reduce the role "establishment" economists) and implemented of market forces in determining the value of in a number of countries in Asia and elsewhere. the currency on a day-to-day basis; It is not without some significance that leading global institutions, like the IMF, appear to be * central bank approval for all conversion of watching these developments with some interest. ringgits into foreign currency; Although predictably warning that capital * a ban on trading in ringgit instruments by controls could be abused and circumvented, the offshore banks; and IMF's Asia-Pacific Director, Hubert Neiss, added that short-term capital controls might need to be * a measure that non-residents purchasing adopted to avert the kind of contagion problems local shares have to retain within the coun- experienced among Asian economies over the try the shares or the proceeds from their sale last year. for a year from purchase date. International financial (and political) leader-

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53 ECONOMIC MONITOR

ship is called for that would drive towards required quickly on the appropriate institu greater global financial co-ordination, debate tional form for regulating speculative &t-tivin new institutional arrangements and rules gov- and on the rules and mechanisms lor enlori- erning capital flows, and encourage diversity in ing speculators to disclose theii positing approach in matters affecting currency, bond Will this kind of initiative come fmm ( and stock markets. October IMF/World Bank/G22 meetings in At the very least, innovative ideas are Washington DC? I

REFERENCES

Bond, P. (1998) Global Financial Crisis: Why We Knight, M, (1998) Developing Countries and Should Care, What We Should Do. Indicator SoutA Globalization of Financial Markets. Wi Africa. Volume 15, No. 3. University of Natal, Development, Vol 26 No 7. Durban. Krugman, P. (1998) Saving Asia: It's lime to Grilli, V. and Roubini, N. (1993) Financial Radical. Fortune, Vol 38 No 5, September. Liberalisation and Exchange Rate Volatility, In Padayachee, V. and Valodia, I. (1997) Mala Vittorio Conti and Rony Hamaui, Financial Money, Sustainable Investments? Indicator S< Markets' Liberalisation and the Role of Banks. Africa, Vol 14 No 2. University of Natal, Durban. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. South African Reserve Bank (1998) Gove. Khor, M. (1997) ASEAN Currency Turmoil Refuels Address to the 78th Annual General Mi i-: • n» uf Ihc Policy Debates. Third World Network Features. Shareholders of the Bank. SARB, Preti September (http://[email protected]). Wade, R. and Veneroso, F. (1998) The Asian Crisis: Khor, M. (1998) Tide Turning against Free-market High Debt Model Versus the Wall Street-Treasury-.' Orthodoxy. Third World Network Features. IMF-Complex. New Left Review. No. 228. September (http://www.twn.apc.org).

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54

b=aDEVELOPMEN& kmt w ^ka^^l l7llsss«l ^T 3 M 'O~~ N F T 0 R

• AIDS AND DEVELOPMENT

ALAN WHITESIDE KAREN MICHAEL Health Economics and AIDS/HIV Research Division (HEARD) University of Natal, Durban

ASSESSING THE PRESENT IMPACT OF AIDS STRICTLY 800 000 ORPHANS BY THE YEAR 2010. CATERING

IN TERMS OF ECONOMICS CAN BE MISLEADING - FOR JUST HALF OF THE ORPHANED CHILDREN

WHILE MANY OF THE EFFECTS WILL BE DEVASTATING THROUGH FOSTER CARE GRANTS WOULD ADD R1.4 BILLION TO THE PROVINCIAL WELFARE BUDGET BY iimi IN THE LONG-TERM, SOME SHORT TERM INDICATORS Ml • MIGHT EVEN IMPROVE. 2010.

THE RAPID DECLINE OF LIFE EXPECTANCY ON THE CON- • DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS MAY ACTUALLY SPEED THE H TINENT HAS LED TO A PRECIPITOUS DROP IN THE • SPREAD OF THE DISEASE. THE ROLE TRANSPORTATION Executive HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX, WITHOUT CORRESPOND- CORRIDORS PLAY IN THE TRANSMISSION OF HIV HAS ingly DRAMATIC CHANGES IN LIVING CONDITIONS. Summary • BEEN WELL DOCUMENTED. THE LUBOMBO SDI IS SOUTH AFRICA NEEDS TO PLAN FOR THE CARE OF A PLANNED TO RUN THROUGH SOME OF THE POOREST

GENERATION OF MILLIONS OF AIDS ORPHANS. AREAS OF THREE COUNTRIES, AND MAY BRING DEV-

KWAZULU-NATAL ALONE WILL HAVE TO FACE THE ASTATION RATHER THAN DEVELOPMENT IN ITS WAKE IF

LEGACY OF 350 000 ORPHANS IN TWO YEARS, AND PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

HIV/AIDS IS A PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT Assessing the present impact of AIDS strict- issue. The disease disproportionately impacts ly in terms of economics can be misleading. At Ion the poor, both in terms of higher infection the micro or household level, illness or death rates and the effects of infection on household can be expected to result in the expenditure of •'"(I ((immunity economies. Breadwinners are scarce reserves, and the loss of an adult member °"h now beginning to succumb to the disease can mean less income. A World Bank (1996) 'B significant numbers, and South Africa must study on the impact of adult death indicates | ®ake immediate provision for their offspring - that afflicted households tend to reduce invest- ' 'generation of millions of orphans, a third of ment in the future. For example, children, espe- which will themselves be infected. cially females, are often withdrawn from school Planners must also take the virus into con- when primary breadwinners die. - ^deration when initiating development pro- At middle levels - firms and production jects. The Lubombo Spatial Development units - there is evidence to suggest that busi- Initiative (SDI) may become more than a road to ness find ways of coping with the increased

fches; it may ajso become a conduit for HIV morbidity and mortality. In fact in South Africa, 'M!>Mnission. Transportation corridors, espe- the negative impact of "right-sizing" may be those connecting poor rural areas with diminished by the natural attrition of workers centres, have been shown to facilitate the due to AIDS-related death. J of the illness. At the level of national economics, the

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57 DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT M o" N I T 0 R MONITOR

impact of AIDS is not yet obvious. Models sug- projected to the year 2010. The indiciums ;ir„ The change in HDI rank- TABLE 2. CHILD MORTALITY WITH AND WITHOUT AIDS gest that the rate of growth may slow down, but calculated for the world with and without .\1]JS ing between 1996 and 1997 giving a clear picture of what the disi in certain circumstances per capita income (the rur four African countries are 1998 2010 total wealth of the country divided by the num- presently doing and what it will do in showr. in Table 3. Changes Without AIDS With AIDS Without AIDS With AIDS ber of people) may actually rise due to a decline future. As might be expected, Africa is, and will lilii! that seen in Botswana, in the population. This would suggest that, in continue to be, the area worst hit. where life expectancy fell Zimbabwe 50.5 123.4 31.8 115.6 order to see the impact of AIDS, we will have to The data for eight of the worst affected (.nun. from 66 to 52 years and the Namibia 62.1 125.5 37.5 118.8 look beyond the world of economics per se. tries are shown in Table 1, and the implii.;iijm.s country from 71st place in the Botswana 57.4 are startling. The loss of 25.7 years life ex|>o(:|ini. world HDI rankings to 97th, 121.1 38.3 119.5 THE HDI cy in Zimbabwe and 1.4% population growth call the validity of this indica- Swaziland 83.8 103.4 77.5 152.2 The Human Development Index is a composite will have a very significant impact on tiio p()|)u. tor into question in an AIDS Zambia 125.7 181.2 96.9 160.7 of three indicators: a long and healthy life, lation, the society, and the economy?. afllidi'd world. On the basis knowledge, and a decent standard of living. A similar pattern is found through the coun- of the effect of life expectancy Kenya 64.9 107.0 45.4 105.2 Longevity is measured by life expectancy at tries of Central and Southern Africa. Even South on this indicator many Malawi 190.3 231.6 136.0 202.6 birth; education attainment is measured by a Africa, which six years ago had prevalence lev- African countries seem to combination of adult literacy (two-thirds els in single figures, today is predicted to havu have suffered a serious set- South Africa 69.7 95.5 48.5 99.5 weight) and combined primary, secondary and lost nearly 10 years in life expectancv. back in development and have Source: Human Development Report, 1997 tertiary enrollment ratios (one-third weight); and What this table does not show is thai. in slipped down the global rankings. standard of living is measured by the real GDP many African countries, HIV continues to per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity. spread and, given that the AIDS cases take five AIDS ORPHANS TABLE 3. CHANGES IN THE HDI AIDS will have an impact on the HDI to six years to develop, the situation in lemis ot An AIDS orphan is defined as a person of 15 Rank because it increases mortality. The World demographic indicators is certain to get very years or younger whose mother has died of an Population Profile (US Bureau of Census, 1998) much worse. HIV-related illness. Only one third of all chil- 1997 1996 dren shows this trend. Early projections from the The impact on child mortality may also he born to HIV-positive mothers will be Botswana 97 71 Bureau about the AIDS epidemic were regarded marked. Children born to infected mothers have infected, but all children born to HIV-positive Zambia 143 136 as being overly pessimistic. It is now beginning a 33% chance of being infected. Most of iliose parents are doomed to orphanhood. to seem that they were merely realistic. infected will die before their fifth birthday. When AIDS mortality peaks in South Africa Zimbabwe 129 124 The 1998 figures make for bleak reading. Unfortunately almost all will be orphanei I - and in 2004.130 000 people will be dying each year, Togo 147 140 The Bureau looks at demographic indicators for the mortality rates among orphans are higher Hy 201(1, the cumulative deaths from AIDS in a number of African, Asian and South American than among children with parents. These data Kwa/,II !u-Natal alone will exceed two million people. KwaZulu-Natal will have to face the countries. The assessment is done for 1998 and are presented in Table 2. TABLE 4: COMMUNITY ASSISTANCE legacy of 350 000 orphans in two years, and ii!)() 000 orphans by the year 2010. Catering for Willing to care for orphans generally 62.1 TABLE 1. LIFE EXPECTANCY AND POPULATION GROWTH 1998 just half of the orphaned children through fos- Willing to care for orphans with support 78 Life Expectancy Growth Rates ter care grants would add Rl.4 billion to the provincial welfare budget by 2010. Willing to care for AIDS orphans: Without AIDS With AIDS Years Lost Willi AIDS Without AIDS How will we care for these children? While Related 73.5 Zimbabwe 64.9 39.2 25.7 2.5 1.1 the best environment to raise a child is within a Known 49.5 family, this may not always be feasible. Other Stranger 42.3 Namibia 65.3 41.5 23.8 2.9 l.i models include community or neighbourhood- Source: McKerrow, 1996 Botswana 61.5 40.1 21.4 2.4 1.1 based structures, and enterprise-centred "kib- butz'- -type collectives for women and children. Swaziland 58.1 38.5 19.6 3.2 2.0 South African communities have reported a Institutional care should be considered only as a very high level of financial stress. Extended Zambia 56.2 37.1 19,1 3.3 2.1 last resort, as the associated costs are prohibitive. family structures are being eroded by migration AIDS will undermine the willingness of Kenya 65.6 47.6 18.0 2.5 1.7 and urbanisation. Households with HIV/AIDS immunities to absorb orphaned children. Dr typically spend a full year's income meeting 1.7 Malawi 51.1 36.6 14.5 2.7 ^eil McKerrow's study (1996) showed that this treatment and funeral costs. If the extended ^illinguess is conditioned by the relationship South Africa 65.4 55.7 9.7 3.2 2.0 family is the preferred safety-net for orphan ehveen the orphan and the care-giver. ,r care, then steps must be taken to ensure house- Source: US Bereau of Census, 1997; Human Development Re 1996.l9!

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 58 59 •mmm DEVELOPMENT M 0 N I T 0 R

hold resources are not over-burdened. Families properly monitored for malnutrition, chi|(|),0(jr| are more willing to care for orphans if some diseases and immunisations. The health risks t form of support is offered: free education, free orphaned children can be minimised by d^.,'

health care, or food supplements. oping home-based health services, supporfj Support is needed to ensure that caregivers child nutrition programmes, extending immun will be available to assist the sick and the sation programmes, and targeting vulnerab] orphaned. Most models of care assume that children with HIV prevention programmes women will undertake caring roles, women Orphans are also vulnerable to human riuhi<. who are already carrying the bulk of the house- abuses. On the death of a father, nianv mptiuns

hold burden. The additional needs of the vic- and widows may find themselves the \ i(;|jM)s u( tims of AIDS will impact on their ability to "property grabbing". The absence of a will u,

engage in other productive and income-generat- document the transfer of property serves only |0 ing activities. weaken the survivors' claims. The stress of care-giving on Property-grabbing can be reduced bv pro- women can be relieved if they are tecting the property and inheritance .'iglits oi WITHOUT A HOME, MASS given access to economic resources: women and children. Extending legal ^urvit:p«, MIGRATION INTO URBAN arranging access to soft credit, and to communities and educating communiijpi stimulating income-generating activ- CENTRES TO LOOK FOR about inheritance rights are important inlurvnn- ities would help families to over- tions. Child-headed households will soon lm a WORK WILL BE THE ONLY come the financial setbacks suffered familiar sight, and the children of these house- OPTION FOR MANY when a member falls sick with or holds will stand a better chance of survival if dies of HIV. Community educare cen- they can retain their rightful inhmitiiinx. ORPHANS. tres, piped water, and community Resistance to will-making can be addressed gardens help by reducing the strains through burial societies, which are comnuiu fea- on women's time and labour. Labour tures of the South African landscape. demands on women and girls can be reduced by Without a home, mass migration into urban the development of community-based creches, centres to look for work will be the only option or extending piped water or electrification to vil- for many orphans. Without the familial suppurl lages. structure, these children are vulnerable to many Aid to community structures will also be types of exploitation: being hired for sweatshuji required. Communities are best positioned to labour, forced into commercial sex ui •. identify the needy and vulnerable within them- opted into gangs. Girls are particularly at risk us selves. Strengthening community-based organi- they are preferred for domestic labour ami sex. sations strengthens a community's ability to Finally, current procedures for adoption and develop and implement programmes for the fostering will create problems for plu.ing tl»'- infected and the affected. The success of these huge numbers of orphans in five to ID year;, programmes will hinge on understanding com- time. These procedures need to be reviewed. munity dynamics, and investing communities with a sense of ownership in programmes. In THE LUBOMBO SDI many areas, communities have joined together to The new Lubombo SDI has been heralded us lln1 support and assist families and children affected key to unlocking investment potential, by pro- by HIV/AIDS. With no external assistance, some moting trade, communication, and development communities have devised identification and in the region, The objective of the SDI is to assistance programmes to help needy families. stimulate internationally competitive tourism In the absence of a mother, the health status and agricultural industries. It is anticipated that of a small child is terribly compromised. the project, which is driven by private srcttf Training community health workers is an investment, will have beneficial spin-off effects important intervention: in this way small chil- for the surrounding communities. dren being cared for by older siblings can be The Lubombo region is broadly defined as

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60 DEVELOPMENT M 0 N I T O R

aSlem Swaziland, the southern part of road networks. The relative wealth of these

^()(,;im|)ique's Maputo province, and the north- workers, added to the relative poverty of the eastern areas of KwaZulu-Natal. The SDI will communities located along major transport impai.l on the lives of more than 600 000 peo- routes, enables the purchase of sexual partners. I,, in (he three regions. Whether the impact of Commercial sex work becomes a steady source

l])(1 i.uhombo SDI will be entirely beneficial to of income for poor rural women who are other- the people of the region is questionable. wise unable to provide for their families. Space Thi! Lubombo region has a history of desta- •Construction, who are undertaking the con- bilisation and conflict. The people who live struction work on Phase One, are targeting their there do so under conditions of great hardship workers by offering generic courses on AIDS

dml poverty. There is a well-documented corre- and other issues through Mduku clinic. lation between poverty and the spread of HIV. Phase One of the SDI is already under con- Tim lour main areas of concern are construction struction from Hluhluwe to Mkuzi. Phases Two, workeis. transport workers, commercial sex Three and Four will be launched next year. It is workers, and tourists. These four groups of peo- not too late to take action. The ple inuM be appropriately targeted to reduce the provincial Department of Health spread of HIV and the impact of AIDS in the recently launched the female con- IN A SURVEY CONDUCTED nigion. If they are not, it is fair to say that the dom pilot project in KZN. This pro- WITH 213 LONG reginr. is sitting on a potential time bomb. ject needs to be extended to reach Officials from the Departments of Health in women in those communities that DISTANCE TRUCK llie three countries and the Medical Research will be impacted on by the Lubombo DRIVERS, 35% WERE SDI, and the employers of construc- Qiuneil are currently developing a health pro- FOUND TO HAVE HAD tocol to manage malaria. There is an agreement tion and transport workers would be MORE THAN ONE at ministerial level to expand the existing well-advised to cooperate with Malaria Control Programme into Mocambique. AIDS prevention initiatives and dis- PARTNER IN THE WEEK tribute condoms to their workers. 1IIV/A11)S issues are broadly built into the PRIOR TO THE INTERVIEW. health protocol but are not the policy's main The urgency of the issue cannot focus. The protocol will enable the develop- be overstated. The Lubombo SDI ment of regional programmes to intervene on has taken an innovative approach to more Incused health issues. There is talk of environmental and other issues, and has making AIDS information and condoms avail- expressed a willingness to work with organisa- able at border posts but targeting of the four tions who have positive contributions to make groups needs to be considered as an essential to the development, but the issue of HIV/AIDS part of any AIDS intervention programme. needs to be placed squarely on the agenda of the In a survey conducted with 213 long dis- project office. tance truck drivers, 35% were found to have The Lubombo SDI has the potential to bring had more than one partner in the week prior to economic growth and development to three his- the interview. 74% had heard of AIDS and how torically neglected regions and populations. to protect themselves, but it was not clear that However, the SDI also has the potential to seri- safe sex was being practiced. Construction work ously undermine the stated objectives of its a»d transport work have the potential to open planners who might just be building another UP flourishing sex work industries along major AIDS highway. I

REFERENCES Marcus, T, (1997) Interpreting the Risk of Aids: A Copperbell and Southern Provinces of Zambia. Cas!' Study of Long Distance Truck Drivers. Unicef: Lusaka. lopment Southern Africa, 14(3). World Bank (1997) Confronting AIDS: Public Vl'-Kei-;ow, N.H. (1996) Response to Orphaned Priorities in a Global Epidemic. Washington. Chihlren: A Review of the Current Situation in the

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 61 DEVELOPM ENT M 0 N I 0 R

VIRGIN TESTING:

ONE ANSWER TO THE AIDS EPIDEMIC?

GEORGINA HAMILTON Research Office, University of Natal

THOUSANDS OF YOUNG WOMEN AND GIRLS ARE BEING THIS RITUAL IS ALREADY STARTING TO IMPACT ON

ATTRACTED TO A REVAMPED ZULU RITUAL - THEY ARE OTHER AREAS OF SUSTAINED TRADITION, SUCH AS HAVING THEIR VIRGINITY PUBLICLY "TESTED". LOBOLA.

The PROCESS INVOLVES a GROUP VISUAL INSPECTION OPPONENTS TO THE PRACTICE POINT OUT THAT IT IS FOR HYMEN INTEGRITY, AFTER WHICH A CERTIFICATE UNRELIABLE, THAT IT STIGMATISES VICTIMS OF SEXU- IS AWARDED. AL ABUSE, AND THAT ITS PUBLIC NATURE UNDER- MINES PRIVACY. Executive WHILE WORKING IN A MAGISTRATE'S OFFICE, FOUNDER ANDILE GUMEDE NOTICED THAT MANY OF GLOBALISATION CAN BE ENCOMPASSING OR MARGIN- Summary THE YOUNG WOMEN APPLYING FOR IDENTITY DOCU- ALISING. IN SOCIETIES CAUGHT BETWEEN SUBSIS- MENTS WERE UNABLE TO NAME THEIR FATHERS. TENCE AND CONSUMERISM, VIOLENCE AND IMPOSSI- CONCERNED WITH HIGH RATES OF HIV AND TEEN BLE PROMISES OF EQUALITY, THE FUTURE CAN SEEM PREGNANCY, SHE DECIDED TO TAP INTO THE KNOWL- INTOLERABLY CAPRICIOUS AND THE PAST MAY SEEM A EDGE OF OLDER WOMEN IN HER COMMUNITY, AND TO BETTER SOURCE OF WISDOM. USE PRAISE AND TRADITION TO MOTIVATE CHANGES IN BEHAVIOUR.

A CROWD OF YOUNG GIRLS HAS more arrive and the singing becomes jubilant, been gathering since the sun rose over the sometimes competitive, as girls from different Inanda Darn in the Valley of a Thousand Hills. areas band together to perform spontaneous^ Though Durban is hardly 30 kilometres distant, Most are clothed in tiny multi-coloured bead the valley seems a century away, but for the aprons that barely cover the pubic area. noise of an occasional car grinding up the dusty Necklaces of fine beadwork hang around and roads. between their breasts. This is not the rural Zulu idyll of popular Older women wearing intricate headword imagination. The area is very poor. Many of its bodices and longer skirts start to marshal the f!'r's inhabitants commute to meagre jobs in Durban - about 3,000 of them - to the middle of a" and a very large number are unemployed. A few uneven, unploughed field. The mood is qui"1'? houses recall the shape of traditional beehive celebratory as the girls line up, three or f"lir huts but most are rough constructions of cheap abreast, for the "hlola" - the test of their virgin'^ building materials. Nomvula and Lungile jostle and nudge The girls mill in small groups, dancing, other in the queue. It is a long wait. They i»v singing, giggling. By mid-morning, busloads friends and have come with other classum!'"

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62 DEVELOPMENT MONITOR

TOIU school in KwaMashu. Both hope to matric- They are uncomfortable talking about the [jlate next year. These two teens have been to a ceremony and what it means to them though ylfiiiu-testing ceremony before. Sometimes they they are happy to chat about their school and iojn in the singing that combusts in the milling friends. There is little sense of their

!f(»V(l. having been through an ordeal, or of particular reverence for the occa- One of the songs that everyone seems to THE WOMEN EXAMINERS know begins with the words, "It is early to sleep sion. Were it not for their ceremoni- HAVE NO MEDICAL uith a bny". Most of the girls are in their teens . al dress and the location, they could though some are much younger - six or seven have been hanging out in the school QUALIFICATIONS BUT ALL playground during lunch break. Id - and there are a few women who look CLAIM THAT IT IS EASY TO (Oiisiderably older. Even two much older Observers of similar ceremonies have noted that the girls seem inar- TELL A VIRGIN IF YOU woinei' - one of them 65 - have joined the ticulate about the experience of quoin'. HAVE SPECIAL being tested for virginity. In rural As Nomvula and Lungile approach the front KNOWLEDGE AND areas, where customary practices of tlie incite they are quiet, perhaps in the grip have more currency, girls may still TRAINING. of a momentary trance. Then they lie on their be constrained by norms which backs on grass mats in the dust with their require them to be respectful of peo- pudenda facing three older women who are ple older than themselves, to say little, and not kneeling on the ground. At first the girls seem to criticise. unsure what to do, then hesitantly they part iliuir logs and pull back their labia. One of the ORIGINS older u oman peers at each girl's vagina for signs The reviver and organiser of the virgin-testing that she is a virgin. The examination is confi- ceremony, Andile Gumede, is a handsome 29- dent and cursory. There is no digital probing, year-old woman who wears her cell phone as just a glance. easily as she does her beaded ceremonial The women examiners have no medical clothes. She says, "We have to show girls that qualifications but all claim that it is easy to tell they are important. Boys don't respect girls. But a virgin if you have special knowledge and we, the women, must heal the land and the boys training. They say they look mainly for an intact must understand, if they don't hymen. To an onlooker there seems no distinc- respect girls, all the ancestors of tive visual signifier of virginity. these maidens are going to be on top Their test over, Nomvula and Lungile are OBSERVERS HAVE NOTED of them." Hiven a pat on the thigh, and motioned forward Gumede says she first knew THAT THE GIRLS SEEM '"In a crowd of ululating friends and mothers about the virginity ritual when, at (men and boys are not allowed on the field.) INARTICULATE ABOUT seven, she saw her grandmother take Anoiher older woman daubs them on the fore- THE EXPERIENCE OF her aunts to the back of the house in head with a noxious-smelling white mixture the early morning to examine their BEING TESTED FOR resembling clay slip to show that they are vir- vaginas. She did not actually see ul they join another queue to receive a VIRGINITY. what happened but was intrigued by certificate authenticating their virginity. the secrecy of the ritual, and the ATTITUDES praise with which the girls were Lungile says, "My mother will be happy." rewarded afterwards. ^ornvula, who wants to read physics and math- In 1993, she was working in the magistrate's Katies at university says, "It was nice but not office in a rural town in KwaZulu-Natal. One of Ver}' nice," They have pulled on knickers and her duties was to issue people with identity j^ke trainers after the test but are bare-breasted documents. She realised that most of the ut lor a few strings of beads. These are city girls, teenagers she talked to didn't have families in SUrPrisingly at ease without much clothing. any conventional sense. They had mothers but

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 63 DEVELOPMENT M 0 N I T 0 R

didn't know their fathers or even their fathers' In 1993 the grandmothers brought A\m[ 2,

names and this made it difficult for her to issue of their female grandchildren togctlipi iMll| ^

them with identity documents. virgin testing was revived in a new, pu|,|j(. r "What I thought then," Gumede says, "was monial form. It attracted the attention o| that we blacks have a problem. We have chil- station and the subsequent phone-i:i ruspoij dren, but we don't have families. We don't keep was such that within weeks, Gumedc sav's sin. our virginity. We sleep around with and her cohorts were invited to villages itroiuuj anyone." She says, " It was the chil- the province and to neighbouring pro\ jM( ,,s ,|Ii(j THE ANCESTORS ARE dren who came to me. They asked, countries, such as Swaziland, to revh e iho rpr 'What can we do'?" emony. ANGRY BECAUSE WE Gumede's status as adviser, HAVE LOST OUR derived from her position in the ANCESTORS AND AIDS TRADITIONS. magistrate's office but her response Today such ceremonies are held niuntlih was not a bureaucratic one. around the province, attracting thousands 0f As far as Gumede is concerned, young girls. What has prompted this public cer- behaviour needs to be changed in order for emonial revival or, more accurately, re-inven- there to be a moral revival. To be using contra- tion, of a localised and much more ornate. cus- ception to avoid pregnancy is still to engage in tom that has been in abeyance for years? To an immoral sexual behaviour. The way she sees it, extent it is driven by Gumede's enei and con- praise is an essential ingredient. People will viction that the ancestors are driving her: 1 only change if there is value in it. Praise, she can't leave them aside. If I am sleeping ihnv says, makes you value yourself, and then others come to me. They are angry because wo have respect you. But there must be some reason why lost our customs." praise is due. Yet this is hardly sufficient to account for Gumede then remembered her grandmoth- the widespread attendance at ceremonies, and er's ritual and the praise that was bestowed on embrace of forgotten, new and arcane rituals. her aunts for keeping their virginity. "We must- Gumede herself points to the disruption of fam- n't go for pills and injections," she says. "If you ily life, poverty, and fear of violence, including are using pills, no one can know if you are a vir- sexual violence, that have caused pnnpln to gin or not and no one can praise you. So I called search for new forms of safety and mediation. together the grandmothers in the area. Four of She thinks that AIDS is also an important them, whose grandchildren I had talked to, factor. "AIDS is very high among our youth," came to me. I said, I want to learn this thing, she says. "Men can have many girlfriends, IJII! this way of looking for virginity." we believe that if you are a parent you can si'

WHO IS NOMKHUBULWANE?

he primary female ancestor in Zulu cosmol- It is hard to gauge how many girls w bo submit:" Togy is the Zulu goddess, Nomkhubulwane. themselves to virgin-testing actually know" She is female principle, immortal virgin, moth- about or believe in Nomkhubulwai er and protector of all Zulu girls and source of Since 1995, a yearly ceremony .•.pecifififd-, growth and creation. If she is not propitiated ly dedicated to her has been r<" ived by with customary obedience and due ceremony Gumede's friend, NomaGugu \gnoese .'ind the land and people may be visited with vio- there is evidence that Nomkhuiiuhvaiics lence, drought, conquest and disease. name and influence is spreading among At one level the virgin testing ceremony is young girls and women. Among oldor aimed at re-instituting the rituals and behaviour women, particularly those of ritual md cere- that would unleash the benign, mediatory and monial status, there is still know ledge and creative forces of the goddess and the ancestors. belief.

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64 DEVELOPMENT MONITOR

|mvn with girls and explain to them about home and show to people so that they could be praised. The certificate has begun to find its way being a virgin- They are the people who can h(.'|(n:ieland... who can heal us." into the widespread custom of paying lobola in South Africa has the fastest-growing AIDS KwaZulu-Natal and other parts of South Africa. epidemic in the world. KwaZulu-Natal is the Lobola, loosely translated as most afflicted province. In 1997, 27% of women bride-wealth, is a sort of reverse attending antenatal clinics were HIV-positive. dowry. Traditionally if a man RECENT DATA FROM A Recent data from a rural area in the north of the wished to marry a woman he was RURAL AREA IN THE province show that fully 35% of women are HIV required to present her family with a NORTH OF THE positive by the time they reach the age of 24. number of cattle. The number of cat- According to Brian Williams, Director of the tle fluctuated as does any currency PROVINCE SHOW THAT Epidemiology Research Unit, the virus probably but a virgin generally commanded a FULLY 35% OF WOMEN entered higher price. Today lobola is often a South Africa from countries to the ARE HIV POSITIVE BY north through trucking routes that end in cash payment though sometimes THE TIME THEY REACH Durham the largest city in KwaZulu-Natal. still related to the market price of In his view the containment of the AIDS epi- cattle. There is some evidence that THE AGE OF 24. demic in South Africa will depend on the certificates from the virgin-testing extent to which local communities can be ceremony are now being used in the engaged and supported in their own efforts to bargaining process. ileal with the epidemic. "The flaws in the main- Another question frequently asked of stream educational and health programmes Gumede is what happens to a girl if she is derive from the fact that they are often didactic found, at the ceremony, not to be a virgin? "Oh and prescriptive and have very little to do with this doesn't happen often," she says. "Girls who fliiijiowering those people who could influence aren't virgins don't come to the ceremony. We behaviour in communities where AIDS is rife." do not force anyone to come and if we find 'I he actual test is of questionable validity. Dr someone who is not a virgin then we take them Ron liallard of the South African Institute for aside and talk to them quietly. It is the same Medii al Research says that "hymens can be per- when we see that a child has been abused or has forated as a result of many activities other than something wrong like thrush." sex. If a skilled observer reports that the hymen Sindisiwe, a 22 year-old woman who is is intact that is quite reliable but if it appears training to be a teacher, is concerned that virgin- that the hymen is not intact one can draw no testing is now being carried out at conclusions." schools and in public places in A question frequently asked of Gumede, as towns. She watched a public cere- "GIRLS WHO AREN'T of anyone waving an HIV negative certificate, is: mony held in a sports stadium in VIRGINS DON'T COME TO how 'long does it last? The idea, says Gumede, is KwaMashu, a suburb of Durban. to encourage a culture of pride in virginity. She "There was no privacy," she says, "If THE CEREMONY." encourages girls to come to ceremonies once a this is meant to be something highly month if they can but argues that the real revival worthwhile, why make it so public the custom will be its re-integration into and humiliating. There were boys on the higher household ritual such as performed by her ground at the edge of the stadium. They were grandmother. Public ritual, she insists, will be giggling and saying things like, 'Can you stop transformed into personal belief and commit- the township boys?'" ment - a re-engagement with the ancestors. Sindisiwe, and her friends who watched the ceremony with her, thought that the girls being MODERN RITUALS tested were not from town. "Those were farm As with many revived rituals there are modern girls brought in," she says. "I think that the accretions. The certificate is one. Gumede whole process is immoral and degrading of decided that the girls needed something to take black society. We have various other rituals

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 65 DEVELOPMENT MONITOR

which are acceptable like slaughtering cows for girls called amaquikiza. Whenever a girl M,,(1(js ancestors. But I see no real reason behind this. advice concerning boys she goes to anim/uiid^

You can only solve problems like illegitimacy The amaquikiza were to be informed when H

and sexual diseases through education not girl fell in love and the boy had to be inlr(J. through traumatising these girls." duced to them. When a girl found a lovor slip She adds that she thinks public was not supposed to allow sexual penetration

virgin testing might have the effect but to do ukusoma. This custom st!i:int>r{ |n THERE IS SOME of making the girls rebel and that lapse because there are few places which prac- ACCEPTANCE AMONG she has heard of incidents of cheat- tise it." ZULU-SPEAKING PEOPLE ing, where mothers would get their Gumede agrees there is some acceptance friends to check their daughters so among Zulu-speaking people of ukwiun.a - H(.x OF UKUSOMA - SEX that the family would not be dis- without penetration. A distinctionbetween sia- WITHOUT PENETRATION. graced, uality and fertility is recognised and I hero is Sindisiwe's classmate, Xolile, is tacit approval of sex which involves only the equally opposed to virgin-testing. rubbing of the penis against or between tln> She says, "They should leave the girls alone. It thighs. Reliable statistics are not available hut is embarrassing. What about those who were anecdotal evidence is strong that teena»o preg- raped at a young age and didn't know they were nancies in KwaZulu-Natal are one the incroasu, being raped? It has to do with culture. They suggesting that this custom, which places the wait until a certain age before they tell you any- onus of restraint on the female, is declining. thing, before that nothing. That has been the When the first public virgin-testing ceremo- way it has always been." ny took place five years ago, Gumede recoivd many threats from young men. "They would sav SEXUAL EXPOSURE to me, 'You have taken all our bread. Now \vp In Zulu there are words for women at each stage are hungry.'" Only about 20 girls worn tested of their sexual development which convey the first time but there was much festivity, and meaning rather than object or organ. The words radio publicity attracted threats from callers to are not only descriptive and metaphorical but phone-in programmes about the testing. often symbolic. There is a word for girls who Gumede says she still receives isolated throats haven't reached puberty. Then one but there is no organised resistance from num. for those who have experienced the On the contrary, there is increasing nmsorv- onset of menstruation but are with- ative approval. Reggie Shelela, in his 2i)s, who WHEN THE FIRST PUBLIC out a boyfriend. Another for those delivered girls to the Inanda Dam ceremony in VIRGIN-TESTING who have boyfriends, and even a his minibus, comments, "This thing is so valu- CEREMONY TOOK PLACE word for those who have boyfriends able you can't buy it. There is a lot ol discipline and some knowledge of sex. * and the girls are taught many important things FIVE YEARS AGO, GUMEDE "At this stage you must teach the here about how to behave." His words echo tl'e RECEIVED MANY THREATS younger ones," Gumede says. "You patriarchal approval of the ceremony I hat has FROM YOUNG MEN. tell them, whatever you do, you come from the Zulu king, Goodwill Zwelithiin. cross your legs if you are with a boy. and many of the province's chiefs. You must fight. If you are soft the Worldwide, revivals and re-inventions "f man will open your legs." ritual are hedge investments against uncertain- A 22-year-old student, Xolile, explains that ty. Globalisation can be encompassing or mar- penetrative sex is only acceptable after mar- ginalising. In societies caught between subsis- riage. "To keep our virginity was an important tence and consumerism, violence and impi'^1' custom for the Zulu people. The girl was not ble promises of equality, the future can sW11 allowed to sleep around until she reached a cer- intolerably capricious. Then the past may sue"1 tain age. These girls are guided by the older a better source of wisdom. I

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66 DEVELOPM ENT MONITOR

CHALLENGE TO TRADITION MEDICAL COMPLICATIONS OF TRADITIONAL XHOSA CIRCUMCISION

GRAEME MEINTJES Institute of Social and Economic Research, Rhodes University

. THE XHOSA CIRCUMCISION RITUAL IS A TRADITIONAL AT INTRODUCING YOUNG XHOSAS TO THEIR CULTURAL

RITE OF PASSAGE. TRADITIONALLY, ALL YOUNG MEN ROLES AS MEN, IT HAS TAKEN ON OVERTONES OF

WERE REQUIRED TO UNDERGO THIS ORDEAL BEFORE MACHISMO AND ETHNIC PRIDE. SINCE ENDURING PAIN

THEY WERE ALLOWED TO MARRY, HAVE PROPERTY AND DANGER ARE PART OF THE TEST, INTERVENTIONS

RIGHTS AND ATTEND AND SPEAK AT GATHERINGS OF TO PROMOTE SAFETY ARE DIFFICULT.

MEN. • IN ORDER TO ENFORCE THE NEW CONCEPTION OF THE

• ITS MODERN MANIFESTATION, HOWEVER, HAS RITUAL AS A TEST OF MANHOOD, INITIATES WHO SEEK Executive

BECOME PROBLEMATIC. THE EASTERN CAPE PROVIN- OUT MEDICAL HELP ARE SCORNED AND OTHERWISE

CIAL STATISTICS ON COMPLICATIONS RELATED TO THE VICTIMISED. THIS ATTITUDE HAS DELAYED THE Summary

RITUAL FOR THE PERIOD 1 OCTOBER 1994 TO 1 RECEIPT OF MEDICAL ATTENTION IN CASES WHERE

FEBRUARY 1995 INCLUDE 743 HOSPITAL ADMIS- IMMEDIATE INTERVENTION COULD HAVE MINIMISED

SIONS, 34 DEATHS AND 36 PENILE MUTILATIONS. THE DAMAGE.

• THE CEREMONY WAS FORMERLY PERFORMED BY • DESPITE THESE DANGERS, THERE IS STILL WIDE-

ELDERS BUT NOW IS INCREASINGLY BEING TAKEN UP SPREAD SUPPORT FOR THE CEREMONY, AND IN SOME

BY YOUNGER MEN, SOME OF WHOM DO NOT UNDER- AREAS CULTURALLY-SENSITIVE INTERVENTIONS HAVE

STAND THE PROPER DRESSING TECHNIQUE AND ARE BEEN SUCCESSFUL. THERE HAS BEEN RESISTANCE TO

NEGLIGENT IN THE AREA OF CLEANLINESS. EXCESSIVE INTERVENTIONS, HOWEVER, BY BOTH THE YOUNG MEN

DEHYDRATION IS ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR. AND TRADITIONAL LEADERS.

• WHILE PREVIOUSLY THE CEREMONY HAD BEEN AIMED

MANHOOD INITIATION RITES tions, health-care workers and the Eastern Cape involving circumcision are widely practised in Health Department. Intervention strategies have 'hi! Maslern Cape by Xhosa-speaking people. In and are being implemented and legislation is fer:unl \ ears there has been extensive coverage in being drafted to address the issue. tin; media regarding deaths, injuries and penile '"ulilalions that have occurred as a result of THE INITIATION RITE &ese rites. The majority of this morbidity and The ritual serves as an initiation from boyhood Mortality is associated with gangrenous and sep- ("ubukhwenkwe") to manhood ("ubudoda") lc implications at the circumcision wound, as and involves a group of initiates undergoing a Well as the practice of fluid restriction. period of seclusion "in the bush" together. It "lis situation has led to growing concern on was traditionally regarded as an educational * e part of local communities, civic organisa- process where initiates were taught about

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67 '1111 DEVELOPMENT MONITOR

courtship, negotiating marriage, social responsi- plications for the period 1 October 1994 lu •] bilities and conduct. The ritual is widely prac- February 1995 (covering one summer "circuIn. tised in the Eastern, Western and Northern Cape cision season") which were as follows: 743 hos. among Xhosa speakers and interviewees told of pital admissions, 34 deaths and 36 penile muti- its practice being ubiquitous in their communi- lations. Since then there has been a reduction ip ties. There were anecdotes of elderly men being the problem according to health workers bnl mi forced to undergo the rite when it was found more recent comprehensive provincial statistics that they were uncircumcised. are available. Nowadays the majority undergo the ritual There are also medical statistical sources, between the ages of 15 and 25 years, Crowley and Kesner (1990) reported on 45 usually during the summer months. youths admitted to CMH with a diagnosis nl MANY OLDER On the first day of entering the bush "septic circumcision" from December illHti to INTERVIEWEES CLAIMED the initiates are circumcised by an January 1989, They reported a mortality rate of "ingcibi" (traditional surgeon) using 9%. For the period 1 January 1991 to '10 |nnn THAT THE PRACTICE HAD an "umdlanga" (spear). Thereafter 1993, hospital records show 222 initiates wore FEWER COMPLICATIONS wound care is supervised by the admitted to CMH for complications of circumci- IN THE PAST AND "ikhankatha" (traditional attendant) sion. Eleven of these patients died. Shaw esti- who is charged with supervising the mates that 10% to 14% of initiates going to the ETHNOGRAPHIC initiate as well as nursing the bush in the Queenstown area developed com- LITERATURE SHOWS wound. The wound is dressed with plications. SCANT DOCUMENTATION leaves held in place by a tightly It has been observed by members of 1 he (!MI I applied sheep's hide thong. Circumcision Task Team that complications OF SUCH A PROBLEM. The seclusion period in the ini- tend to be higher in urban and peri-urban areas tiation lodge lasts three to four and that the problem occurs in geographical weeks. Various taboos and dress clusters. This phenomenon is thought In he codes apply. During the first eight days the ini- related to particular social dynamics, nracliees tiates are confined to their "iboma" (temporary and practitioners operating in these areas. Many dwelling) and subject to dietary and fluid older interviewees claimed that the prai -I ice hail restrictions. The care of the wound is intensive fewer complications in the past. This assertion with frequent dressing changes, quoted from was supported by a review of early medical ami between every 15 minutes to twice a day. As it ethnographic literature which shows scant doc- heals this is done less frequently. The seclusion umentation of such a problem. period also involves instruction from the "ikhankatha" and elders regarding what is MEDICAL FACTORS expected of the initiates as men in Xhosa soci- The most common causes of local complications ety are ischaemia (starvation of blood supply) and Only after undergoing the rite is the individ- bacterial infection of the wound. From a bio- ual regarded as man in Xhosa society. Only then medical perspective the causes for the problem can he marry, have property rights and attend are: and speak at gatherings of men. Obviously, the 1) Ischaemia of the circumcision wound am' rite has been transformed in terms of form and penis results from the hide thong being function in the urban setting and some of these applied too tightly, for too long or with changes will be alluded to below. dressing changes occurring too infri'c]!iuiiLiy- This compromises blood supply to the THE PROBLEM wound, the skin of the penis and, in the mosl The problem is characterised by a lack of reli- severe forms, the entire organ. Gangreni;()l able statistics. One accurate assessment was the penile tissue to varying degrees results. In Eastern Cape provincial statistics (including the worst case the entire organ is four of the five regions of the province) on com- Ischaemia also interferes with wound

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 68 DEVELOPMENT MONITOR

ing and predisposes it to secondary bacterial The inexperience and youth of practitioners, infection. particularly the "amakhankatha" (traditional 2) Bacterial infection of the circumcision attendants), was highlighted as a major factor. wound is a related cause of local complica- Whereas previously the practitioners would be tions. Infection can spread locally as well as respected and elderly members of the communi- become generalised. Resultant septicaemia ty, nowadays the "amakhankatha" are younger, is the major cause of death. Unsterile wound often unemployed, men who take up the job for care and surgical instruments are implicated financial reward. The excessive use of cannabis in this. was emphasised by interviewees. The tradition- al vertical transfer of skills and knowledge With the above two factors accounting for the between practitioners has also been lost. This majority of problems it can be concluded that it cause is borne out by the CMH Task Team find- is the dressing technique and cleanliness rather ing that certain practitioners can be implicated than surgical technique that is most at fault. in clusters of complications. This is contrary to the widely held view. An example of the above is an Dehydration due to the practice of fluid initiate admitted to CMH who IT IS THE DRESSING restriction during the first week in the bush is a claimed his "ikhankatha" had only major complicating factor. Frequently, initiates come to see him at two-day inter- TECHNIQUE AND admitted to hospital with complications are vals for dressing changes. This is CLEANLINESS RATHER dehydrated. In the case of initiates with septi- contrary to the traditional practice THAN SURGICAL caemia, dehydration worsens their prognosis of frequent dressing changes which considerably. There have also been cases of ini- allowed for an intermittent pulse of TECHNIQUE THAT IS MOST tiates being admitted to hospital for rehydration blood supply to the bandaged organ. AT FAULT. alone, in the absence of local complications. Another, who had gangrene of Delays in seeking medical attention are his entire penis, claimed his implii ,.ted by medical personnel in the severity "ikhankatha" had used elastic of complications. Crowley and Kesner (1990) in rather than hide for the thong. Elastic strangu- their study report a mean time between circum- lates all blood supply. Wound care and thong cision and admission to hospital of 18 days. tightness are critical areas with respect to com- Three initiates were dead on arrival at hospital. plications and the practitioners now charged It is suggested that the infection and gangrene with these tasks are often unskilled or negligent becomes more severe during this delay. Initiates in this regard. usually only present once the situation is criti- Older men have withdrawn from their cal. Reasons for this are discussed below. involvement in the ritual, visiting the bush less There is also the theoretical, but real risk of frequently. The reasons for this are varied. Some HIV and Hepatitis B transmission when the young men claimed that they were same blade is used to circumcise more than one too busy drinking. Older men said initiate without sterilisation. This is commonly that the lack of discipline of the the practice. young men has caused them to DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR Other sporadic causes of morbidity and withdraw. The ascendancy of young COMPLICATING FACTOR. mortality include fires in the lodges and men in the ritual outlined below assaults as well as surgical errors on the part of could also be implicated. Migrant the "ingcibi". labour has also denied initiates the supervision of the process by their fathers. SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS In any event, this has resulted in a loss of tra- In the research cultural factors (perceptions and ditional and inherent safety mechanisms, pre- Practices) that contribute and relate to the prob- cautions and control mechanisms. Traditionally lem were stucjiecj some 0f the salient findings older men visited the bush daily and would 316 outlined here. oversee and advise on wound care, augmenting

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 69 DEVELOPMENT MONITOR

the work of the "ikhankatha". Today this is nity. often left to young "amakhankatha" alone. In this way the ritual has also become a tor-

The ritual has experienced an ascendancy of rain where young men act out their peer strUl).

young men in its control and dis- gles, compromising safety in the process. H js course. Traditionally the ritual was also mainly the young men who stigmatise and YOUNG MEN ARE USING an instrument for socialisation of act against those who seek medical attention THE RITUAL TO AFFIRM men into the Xhosa community and who have resisted the interventions. with the emphasis on responsibility There are important sociocultural reasons MASCULINITY AND XHOSA and role, supervised by elders. In for the delays in seeking medical Icrition ETHNICITY. the interviews an alternative dis- related to the stigmatisation of the "hospital

course operating in the modern man". Those who seek medical attention ;ire urban setting emerged. Young men seen to have failed the rite of passage. This is are using the ritual as an identity affirmation often perceived to be due to a deficiency in the using a discourse of power in relation to danger. initiate, such as not being able to take cure ol'the The identity affirmed is one of masculinity and wound or withstand the pain of apply ing the Xhosa ethnicity drawing on the symbolic poten- thong. cy of the ritual. The ritual stands as a sharp One traditional leader stated in the debate in counterbalance to the alienation of the urban the Eastern Cape House of Traditional Leaders experience for these youths. that "Those who die during circumcision school This discourse asserts that the danger of the would not have made it in life after all". Many ritual amplifies its potency. Measures aimed at interviewees said that someone who had been safety are seen to compromise this. This has to hospital during the rite would never he major implications for interventions. This per- regarded as a real man in Xhosa society. The spective was evident in interviews with young role played by female nurses, the symbolic exit- men who emphasised how the endurance of ing of the bush and Western medii inn were pain, hardship and danger in the ritual showed implicated in these attitudes. they were fit to be men and asserted the belief Seeking medical attention is a las1 resort, that the only true men were those who had therefore. Traditional means are tried first. undergone the ritual. However, an "ingcibi" interviewed in Hanover This was in contrast to older people who claimed that many of the traditional measures emphasised the value of the ritual in terms of its for addressing wound complications are no role as an institution of socialisa- longer known in urban settings, contributing tion and maintenance of tradition, further to the problem. THE DANGER OF THE but were more open to interven- Those hospitalised have also been subject to tions and compromises aimed at, victimisation. After discharge from hospital, RITUAL AMPLIFIES ITS enhancing safety. It would seem one initiate in Mdantsane who underwent the POTENCY. that with the shortening of the time coming home ceremony and wore the clothes spent in the bush and the dissolu- indicating he was now a man was assaulted by tion of social institutions around his peers and had his clothes torn off hi in and the ritual, the ritual has become far more about burnt. It was evident that much of the pressure the act of circumcision and physical hardship against seeking medical attention came from than an educational process. peers. This points again to the discourse of The ascendancy of young men in the control power in relation to danger and the ascendancy of the ritual manifests itself in the peer conflict of young men in the ritual. around the ritual in areas such as the tying of With regard to the issue of fluid restriction the thong and fluid restriction. For instance, an there appeared to be misunderstandings of tra- initiate may be subject to severe water restric- ditional practices and conflicts around ll^ tions or an over-tight thong by his "ikhankatha" Confusion regarding the precise traditions or peers because of wrongdoings in the commu- taboo existed. There are local variations today

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70 DEVELOPMENT M 0 N I T 0 R

as a consequence. Some claimed that initiates regard. It is important to note that the majority are not allowed any fluid for eight days where- of interviewees still supported the practice of as others had varying interpretations of the the ritual. taboo. Obviously the stricter the interpretation the INTERVENTIONS more likely are complications from dehydra- Interventions implemented thus far have largely tion. The lack of a safe and agreed practice in been on the basis of local initiatives established this regard, in the modern setting, obviously by individual health care workers in hospitals results in problems and again opens itself to the where a large number of patients with "septic terrain of peer conflicts in the rite. circumcisions" are admitted. These There were also a range of other causes for local programmes have focused on the problem mentioned by interviewees. These education targeted at initiates and THE RITUAL HAS BECOME included ritualistic explanations (such as the traditional practitioners. They have FAR MORE ABOUT THE breaking of the taboo against sexual intercourse involved traditional practitioners in by the "ingcibi"), social (such as the indisci- attempts to establish safer operative ACT OF CIRCUMCISION pline of young people who were being paid and wound care practices in the AND PHYSICAL HARDSHIP back for not listening to their elders) and tech- bush. THAN AN EDUCATIONAL nical (initiates were too young and older meth- Efforts to make available early ods aro no longer working because of new infec- medical attention in the bush when PROCESS. tions such as HIV and STDs). Many intervie- complications occur have also been wees emphasised the excessive consumption of made. In some areas this has alcohol and cannabis by practitioners, and involved male nurses visiting initiates in the sometimes by initiates, which contributes to bush and checking circumcision wounds and indiscipline and unsafe practices. attending to those with complications. Also pre- Many of the complications are related to the circumcision medical checkups to detect and problem of practising a traditional ritual within treat STDs and underling medical conditions a modern urban context. In this context the tra- have been encouraged. ditional authority, community, practices and More recently, the Eastern Gape Department roll: players which surround the ritual have of Health (ECDH) has committed bwii diluted or transformed. There is a break- itself to reducing the rate of compli- down in social and technical aspects of the rit- cations on a provincial level. Their MANY OF THE ual. The result is that traditional safeguards and proposals involve legislation, edu- COMPLICATIONS ARE rommlies for complications have been compro- cation and training of practitioners. mised. The breakdown of traditional social rela- At the time of the research these RELATED TO THE Hcns and a widening generation gap have left proposals were still in the process PROBLEM OF PRACTISING this traditional rite in a crisis. It has become of being drafted. A TRADITIONAL RITUAL unsafe. One of the proposals under dis- The medical complications are paralleled by cussion was that traditional practi- WITHIN A MODERN URBAN n!|»)iUsd problems experienced by the ritual as tioners should have to undergo a CONTEXT. iin institution of socialisation for the same rea- recognised training programme and sons. With the withdrawal of older men from be registered with the ECDH before process, there is less educational input. they be allowed to practise. Criminal investiga- Ili'iM: interviewed claimed that the practice of tions in cases of negligence on the part of tradi- ritual was in the past safer and more effec- tional practitioners were also suggested. t's in terms of its overt purpose of producing The intervention efforts have largely been socially responsible men. Notions of a "rural" led by Xhosa-speaking people who have an "traditional" form of the ritual which was awareness of the cultural issues involved and Purer in ritual content and more disciplined they have thus demonstrated due sensitivity r|"d regulated in practice were raised in this with regard to the taboos and difficulties

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71 DEVELOPMENT M 0 N

involved. This has contributed to their accep- There have been several other oljst:ui(.s tance and success in many areas. In several encountered in the interventions. Many ;„',, areas new practices and instruments have been logistical and relate to more general problems ot accepted after a close working relationship had health care provision in the Eastern Cape, ()m, been established between those run- is the fact that there are considerable Viirinliims ning the interventions and the com- in the ways in which the ritual is practised and munities. the perceptions people have.

IN ALICE, IT IS COMMON For example, in Alice it is com- For example, it was reported that it js filr FOR "INGC1BI" TO USE mon for "ingcibi" to use scalpels to more acceptable for initiates to have the cjr. perform the operation and change cumcision performed in a doctor's surgery and SCALPELS TO PERFORM the blade between initiates. In the then attend the bush in Umtata than it would In; THE OPERATION AND Mdantsane and Queenstown areas, in Mdantsane. The issue of what the essential CHANGE THE BLADE male nurses have attended success- elements of the ritual are and which are open to fully to initiates with complications, change is a vexing one because perceptions in BETWEEN INITIATES. in some instances obviating the need this regard are so variable across the Eastern for hospitalisation, while continuing Cape. This makes for difficulties in terms of close monitoring in the bush. interventions and measures to regulate the prac- However, there has been resistance to the tice at a provincial level. present form of the interventions from certain quarters. Two important groups are resisting the THE WAY FORWARD efforts. The problem of medical complications of tradi- Firstly, some young men in an urban context tional circumcision reflects the crisis of a tradi- assert a belief that the ritual involves testing tional institution struggling to maintain its sur- manhood and thus testing the individual's vival and meaning in a modern urban context. It endurance of pain, danger and hardship. Their is challenged by social disintegration, an resistance to the interventions appears to be authority vacuum, a widening generation gap based on the notion that making the ritual safer and the discontinuity of traditional knowledge undermines its value in terms of this discourse. and practices. This resistance has taken violent forms. It Cultural traditions are dynamic, incorpoiat- has been directed at those who have ing destructive or dangerous trends or construc- undergone pre-circumcision med- tive and adaptive ones over time. The challenge ical check-ups and those admitted for the role players involved in the intervention IN MDANTSANE, A GROUP to hospital. In Mdantsane a group of process and the related political process, is to OF INITIATES SOUGHT initiates sought out those who had find imaginative ways of coming to terms with OUT THOSE WHO HAD undergone pre-circumcision check- the problem in its contemporary context. There is a need for creative and acceptable solutions UNDERGONE PRE- ups and forced them to confess. As punishment they scraped the scab that allow the practice of the ritual to evolve in CIRCUMCISION CHECK-UPS off their healing circumcision a way that ensures the well-being of those AND SCRAPED THE SCAB wounds. undergoing it. OFF THEIR HEALING Secondly, traditional leaders The interventions in place are outlined making the claim that they are the above. These and others need to be developed CIRCUMCISION WOUNDS. "custodians of African culture and and consolidated. Research could plav a" custom," have rejected the involve- important part in the interventions, helping to ment of the ECDH in the issue. They target the efforts appropriately. say traditional leaders should be given the Three critical areas of the ritual were high- resources and authority to oversee the regula- lighted in the research where sociocultural lac- tion of the practice. Their objections are worded tors have a major bearing on complications. 'I in terms of traditionalist and nationalist dis- practice of fluid restriction, the issue of tliong course, tightness and that of pre-circumcision clieck-

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ups are all affected by the discourse of power in vacuum that exists in certain urban areas. relation to danger, and are areas of struggle It is worth noting that the methods used to within the ritual, particularly among initiates improve safety need not necessarily and their peers. be solely biomedical. There are Importantly, the first two are found to anecdotes of traditional safety mea- TRADITIONAL SAFETY account for the majority of admissions from a sures which have been lost in urban biomedical perspective. These three issues are areas. These could be rejuvenated in MEASURES, WHICH HAVE order to enhance safety. probably the areas most in need of targeting by BEEN LOST IN URBAN educational interventions. It is important that interventions AREAS, COULD BE The challenge to those'involved in the inter- involve communities, and solutions ventions is to ensure that safe contexts and are sought which are acceptable and REJUVENATED. piaitices replace the traditional ones where appropriate to them. Given the these have receded. There is a need for authori- widespread support for the ritual ty structures in communities in relation to the illustrated in findings of the study, ways will ritual, drawing in local elders as well as young have to be found to enhance safety while not people to ensure its safety, thereby filling the undermining the practice of the ritual. I

This article is an abridged version of "Manhood at a Price: Socio-Medical Perspectives on Xhosa Traditional Circumcision", Working Papers New Series No. 1, published by the ISER, Rhodes University, 1998. t wish to acknowledge the assistance of Henderson Dweba (CMH Circumcision Task Team) and Emile Boonzaier (Social Anthropology, UCT).

REFERENCES Crowley, LP. and Kesner, K.M. (1990) Ritual Report on the Custom of Circumcision.^ Standing Urcumcision (Umkwetha) amongst the Xhosa of the Committee on Traditions, Culture and* Customs. (iskei. British Journal of Urology. 66: 318-321. Eastern Cape House of Traditional Leaders. Shaw, V. The Traditional Circumcision: Implications for Family Practitioners: Part 1 and 2. Unpublished.

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PARTICIPATIVE DEMOCRACY AND RURAL LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN KWAZULU-NATAL

MARK BUTLER Community Agency for Social Enquiry, Pietermaritzburg

RURAL LOCAL GOVERNMENT IS PARTICULARLY PROB- THE RESPONDENTS EXPRESSED A DESIRE FOR

LEMATIC IN KWAZULU-NATAL, FOR VARIOUS POLITICAL GREATER POLITICAL PARTICIPATION BY RURAL PEOPLE AND HISTORIC REASONS. BEYOND THAT CURRENTLY ALLOWED THROUGH REPRE- SENTATIVES, AND A NEED FOR CAPACITY-BUILDING TO IN RESPONSE TO THE GREEN PAPER ON LOCAL MAKE THIS POSSIBLE. Executive GOVERNMENT, CASE AND AFRA SPOKE TO RURAL Summary PEOPLE TO GET THEIR INPUT ON TRADITIONAL RESPONDENTS STRONGLY FELT THAT REPRESENTA- AUTHORITIES, PARTICIPATION AND CIVIL SOCIETY, AND TIVES SHOULD BE ELECTED AT A LOCAL LEVEL FROM

FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF GOVERNMENT CANDIDATES WHO ARE KNOWN FOR THEIR COMMIT- MENT TO THE COMMUNITY RATHER THAN BECAUSE THEY FOUND THAT, WHILE PEOPLE SUPPORT HAVING THEY ARE PROMINENT MEMBERS OF A POLITICAL TRADITIONAL AUTHORITIES IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PARTY. THEY DO NOT THINK THEY SHOULD PARTICIPATE IN VOT-

ING, POLITICAL DEBATES, AND FINANCIAL DECISIONS.

THE IMPORTANCE OF CREATING spectives to move forward beyond the current the right conditions for governance at the local impasse. level is critical for the overall process of democ- During late 1997, the Community Agency for ratisation and development in South Africa. Social Enquiry (CASE) together with the The lack of human, financial and infrastructur- Association for Rural Advancement (AFRA) al resources in rural areas presents an enormous performed research into local government for challenge to local governance. This is especial- the Ministry of Constitutional Development. ly true in the formerly black rural areas created The researchers conducted a critical reading of during the colonial and apartheid eras. the Green Paper on Local Government in order For various historical and political reasons, to design, test and run a series of policy-orient- finding appropriate structures of rural local gov- ed workshops and in-depth interviews with ernment in KwaZulu-Natal is particularly diffi- both the staff and constituencies of AFRA, as cult. Marrying democratic and traditional polit- well as key individuals identified as important ical leadership and accountability structures resource people. with effective delivery and service mechanisms In keeping with the govenment's committ- in these areas has been problematic. Due to the ment to participatory government, interviews and workshops were developed in order to gen- province's history, these issues tend to become erate debate and solicit the views of key indi- politicised and there is a need for fresh per-

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viduals and groups on three focus issues: issues this is where Amakhosi can experi- • traditional authorities and rural local gov- ence problems." ernment $ participation and civil society "Traditional leaders must involve them- • fundamental principles of rural local gov- selves in traditional affairs, they need not ernment. participate in local government affairs because doing so may result in lowering To the extent that the research process can be their dignity."

sai(i to have solicited representative views of the broad AFRA constituency, the constituency "The traditional leader should be neutral speaks with one voice on the issues that were and treat the whole community as his chil- explored. The findings that are summarised dren. However, if he is part of local govern- below reflect the views of the vast majority of ment he will be required to vote and will those participating in the interviews and work- end up taking sides." shops. All respondents said that tradition- TRADITIONAL AUTHORITIES al authorities are different from PEOPLE IN RURAL AREAS The research showed strong respect for, and elected local representatives WILL NOT ACCEPT A ROLE acceptance of, the institution of traditional because their position does not authorities in rural areas. Almost all respon- depend on the popular vote. This FOR TRADITIONAL dents felt that traditional leaders have an perception indicates that people in LEADERS WHICH DILUTES important role to play in strengthening local rural areas will not accept a role for ELECTIVE DEMOCRACY. governance. Many felt that failure to build on traditional leaders which in any these strengths would threaten development way dilutes elective and participa- and social stability in rural areas. tory democracy. At the same time, there was strong consen- sus that traditional leaders should not be "The difference between Amakhosi and involved in a number of areas of local gover- elected representatives is that the latter can nance. The most frequently mentioned areas in be held accountable by the community if this regard were voting, political debates, and they are not delivering - communities can financial decisions. On the whole, respondents disqualify them or remove them. Amakhosi did not favour traditional authorities being can never be challenged and removed since granted seats on local government. they are born chiefs." The motivation for keeping traditional authorities out of these activities is a consistent "Traditional leaders are not elected but concern for the dignity of their office. inherited the title from their ancestors." Respondents argued that the dignity of tradi- tional authorities, and the respect that this "I do not support the idea of Amakhosi helps ensure among local communities, must be being councillors as well - people must maintained in order for traditional authorities choose." h> make a full contribution as traditional leaders to local governance. As the quotations below "You can replace the local representative if indicate, they felt that direct involvement by the people are not satisfied but you can't traditional leaders in local government would replace traditional leaders. As well - if the compromise that dignity. king doesn't do his job well, it won't be easy ''If Amakhosi are part of local government to tell him that." they would lose the dignity they currently enjoy. During council meetings there are In addition to fulfilling traditional, cultural and fiery debates about a whole lot of emotive other responsibilites outside of the scope of

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local government, respondents argued that tra- They stressed that it would be counter-produc- ditional authorities can and should play impor- tive to try to use such structures to marginalise tant roles in terms of local governance. traditional authorities. At the same time, grant- The most common themes that emerged in ing traditional authorities any veto powers over relation to the role of traditional leaders were: elected local government decision-making • remaining informed of local government and process is clearly untenable. development issues; Much potential conflict can be averted • being consulted on these matters; through a proper understanding of, and respect • providing an indispensable link between for, traditional authorities. One implication of (elected) councillors and the local commu- this research is that training for rural council- nity; lors and officials should specifically address • mobilising support within the local commu- this area. In addition, institutionalising this nity to strengthen the work and develop- aspect of local governance would be a valuable mental aims of local government. contribution toward building a genuinely South African culture of democracy. "They [traditional leaders] should be informed about progress in local govern- PARTICIPATION & CIVIL SOCIETY ment and not actually participate." All respondents agreed that participation by local people in local government should extend "In order for development to take place, one beyond periodic voting for political representa- must first consult them." tives. Some specifically added that participa- tion needed to go beyond quotas of rural repre- "(Traditional leaders] should act as contact sentatives in local government. between local government and the general Levy payers in particular are felt to exercise population." a disproportionately dominant role in rural local government. Other dominating sectors "They should organise the people if the that were frequently mentioned were TLC rep- councillor wants to say something." resentatives at Regional Council level and the Amakhosi. In the case of the Amakhosi howev- Clearly, a critical challenge is to clarify, define er, it was frequently asserted that their domi- and institutionalise the important and positive nance is not so much as traditional leaders per roles that traditional leaders can play. To the se, but rather in terms of "towing the IFP line". extent that this challenge is met, it appears that Farm workers, civil society organisations a complementary relationship between elected (NGOs, CBOs/development committees) and local government and traditional authority sys- women were regarded by repondants as being tems can be achieved. marginalised. While women have a numeric It will be particularly important to clarify presence in Regional Councils, they do not and institutionalise the mechanisms for con- appear to articulate specifically women's inter- sulting with traditional leaders. Current ambi- ests but rather support the political party on guities have effectively given the Amakhosi a de whose ticket they were nominated. facto veto over local government development Almost all those contacted through the plans. Mandatory, clear and accountable con- research expressed the need for more - and sultative mechanisms need to be established mandatory - linkages between local communi- and maintained. ties and councillors, especially through report- In addition, an efficient process of dispute backs and meetings with the community and resolution and appeal, which is binding and local development structures. limited by time-frames, needs to be instituted. A majority of respondents would like to see Some respondents made specific proposals for greater participation by representatives of local structures to achieve this clarification of roles. community and development structures at the

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political level of local government, by making ing regional planning, bulk delivery of ser- such representatives available for election. vices and so on. However, only having the district system denies rural residents of their They also saw an enhanced role for this sector right to a more accountable and participato- in linking local government and local con- ry governance structure." stituencies. The research identified a critical need for capacity building. Particularly relevant in this A majority of those canvassed recognised the context is an emphasis on skilling communities importance of ensuring that elected to enable them to engage in the process of local representatives have the requisite governance. NGOs were'singled out as having a capacities to enable liaison with vital contribution to-make in this regard. To their local constituencies but they THERE IS LITTLE really enable local communities to become would argue that such liaison and CONFIDENCE IN THE involved in decision-making processes that contact must be mandatory. ABILITY OF A affect them, such capacity building would need There is little confidence in the to be accompanied by a coherent information ability of a democratic system based DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM programme, an enabling institutional frame- on political parties to provide what BASED ON POLITICAL work, as well as political commitment from rural people want in a local govern- PARTIES TO PROVIDE within elected local government. ment system. Thus, while the argu- ment is repeatedly made for the WHAT RURAL PEOPLE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES necessity of introducing primary WANT. There is a widely-held perception that the cur- level government structures in rural rent arrangement of rural local government is areas, this is not seen to be in con- too "distant" and lacks real representivity. flict with the need to reduce the total number of Respondents strongly felt that representatives councillors because respondents aparently see should be elected at a local level from candi- little role for representatives of political parties. dates who are known for their commitment to the community rather than because they are EFFECTIVE LOCAL GOVERNANCE prominent members of a political party. There is a wealth of relevant experience and insight within civil society that must be tapped "All communities should be represented, no in the process of policy development. The work matter how small." of civil society can also contribute to building a culture of participatory democracy by enabling "The community should appoint local gov- ordinary people to discuss policy matters and ernment for themselves because if they are formulate their own perspectives on issues that not elected by the local community the com- affect their lives. The process can also have the munities do not know them and do not positive effect of inculcating a reflective and know who they should contact about their learning environment within organisations of problems." civil society, where practical experiences are processed and prioritised in order to generate "The district system is necessary for ensur- focused policy inputs. I

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COMPARATIVE N I T 0 R

WHAT DOES NIGERIA MEAN?

NIGERIA'S CONTESTED DEMOCRATISATION 81 COMPARATIVE M O N I T O R

NIGERIA: DISTRIBUTION OF GDP

1985 Agriculture 36%

HflHp

Industry 32%

THE STORY OF NIGERIA'S POLITICAL ECONOMY IS REPRESENTED IN THE BREAKDOWN OF ITS GDP. THE CHANGING FORTUNES OF THE OIL INDUSTRY HAVE DICTATED NIGERIA'S ECONOMIC MAKE-UP.

EVEN RELATIVE TO NIGERIA: STANDING IN THE WORLD BANK RATING OTHER DEVELOPING OF THE POOREST COUNTRIES COUNTRIES, RECENT YEAR HAVE BEEN HARD ON NIGERIA. FROM

ITS PEAK IN ! 982. WHEN IT WAE

RATED THE 60TH POOREST COUNTRY IN THE WORL'L. IT DROPPED TO 14TH PLACE A DECADE LATER.

1978 1980 1982 1985 1987 1989 1992 1994 1996

Source: World Development Report. 1978-1906 M 0 I T 0 R

CONTFSTFV^ 111 ^^ 1 iuiMi)D has!? ImSDFIVIOCRATISATIO I' [ 1 V 1 ^^ I \i 1 1 1 /ill N1 1

ADJUSTMENT, AUTHORITARIANISM, AND "CIVIL SOCIETY'

FRANCO BARCHIESI Department of Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand

NIGERIA'S STRUGGLE FOR DEMOCRACY CALLS INTO ETHNIC TERMS, SECOND, NIGERIAN "CIVIL SOCIETY"

QUESTION THE LINK BETWEEN DEMOCRATISATION AND HAS PROVED TO BE A HIGHLY COMPLEX AND CONTESTED

THE GROWTH OF CIVIL SOCIETY. TERRAIN. THIRD, THE REGIME ITSELF HAS DISPLAYED A

CERTAIN CAPACITY TO CONTEST FOR THE LOYALTY OF BY FRAMING THEMSELVES AS THE CUSTODIANS OF IMPORTANT SECTOR OF "CIVIL SOCIETY". STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, NIGERIA'S MILITARY

REGIMES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO RETAIN INTERNA- THE LIMITED SCALE OF PROLETARIANISATION IN

TIONAL CREDIBILITY WHILE SUPPRESSING ANY REAL NIGERIA, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, AND THE ROLE OF

DEMOCRACY. THE AUTHORITARIAN STATE AS REPOSITORY OF THE

DEVELOPMENT DISCOURSE AND AS THE MOST IMPOR- IN NIGERIA AS ELSEWHERE, STRUCTURAL ADJUST- TANT EMPLOYER MADE A MEANINGFUL SYSTEM OF MENT PROGRAMMES (SAPS) HAVE PROVOKED RADI- COLLECTIVE BARGAINING UNVIABLE CAL THINKING WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADICAL ACTION. THE CRISIS OF THE ORGANS OF CIVIL SOCIETY DOES Executive NOT NECESSARILY IMPLY A LACK OF CAPACITY FOR OIL WEALTH LED TO THE DECLINE OF LOCAL AGRICUL- Summary RESISTANCE AND FOR MOVEMENTS FOR CHANGE TO TURE, AND THE CREATION OF AN INDIGENOUS MANU- RENEW. New, GRASSROOTS EXPRESSIONS OF POPU- FACTURING, MERCANTILE, AND PROFESSIONAL BOUR- LAR STRUGGLE WERE CATALYSED BY THE SIMULTANE- GEOISIE. FOREIGN COMPANIES FIRMLY MAINTAINED OUS COLLAPSE OF STATE LEGITIMACY AND THE SAP THE CONTROL OF THE OIL SECTOR, HOWEVER, AND MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE OIL WORKERS' STRUG- FOREIGN DEBT INCREASED TO MEET THE DEMANDS OF GLE AND THE OGONI PEOPLE'S MOBILISATION ARE THE NEW MIDDLE CLASS FOR IMPORTED GOODS. TWO EXAMPLES.

THE END OF THE OIL BOOM SENT THE COUNTRY INTO The CRISIS OF CIVIL SOCIETY and THE CRISIS OF A SERIES OF SAPS, AND POPULAR DISSENT OVER STATE INSTITUTIONS ARE, UNDER NEOLIBERALISM THESE PROGRAMMES WAS USED AS A JUSTIFICATION AND STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT POLICIES, ULTIMATELY FOR MILITARY RULE. COMPLEMENTARY PROCESSES. TO ADDRESS THESE

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE KEPT THE OPPOSITION FRAG- PROBLEMS, THE MERE ESTABLISHMENT OF PARTY

MENTED, HOWEVER. FIRST, LAGOS AND OTHER URBAN PLURALISM AND ELECTED INSTITUTIONS WILL NOT BE

AREAS HAVE DOMINATED NIGERIAN OPPOSITION POLI- SUFFICIENT.

TICS, AND VIEW THE REPRESSION IN NORTH-SOUTH AND

NIGERIA'S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION lematic relationship between rise of civil soci- has provided an important opportunity to test ety and democratisation. the link between democratisation and the rise of The powerful free-market rhetoric accompa- 'civil society". The contestation over the mean- nying the adoption of a series of SAPs by the ing of "democratic transition" between the mil- military regimes since 1986, in a context of esca- itary and the popular opposition challenges the lating economic and social crisis and multina- conventional view that there is a linear, unprob- tional investment, allowed these regimes to pre-

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81 COMPARATIVE M ~ 0 N I T 0 R

sent themselves as defenders of internal "stabil- CIVIL SOCIETY IN CRISIS ity" to the outside world. Nigerian civil society, in fact, is undergoing an The international community thus accepted equally serious crisis, which questions some of the various plans of "guided" democratisation the most influential scholarly assumptions on presented by the military, which ensured their the concept, where civil society is presumed to pivotal role in the transition to a "multiparty" be the democratic antidote to the weakness and government. The approval by the military of corruption of the state. pluralist competition was usually aimed at These largely liberal viewpoints, however, defining institutional borders to emasculate assume a notion of civil society as a noninstitu- potentially radical and antisystemic voices. tional public sphere where private collective These voices were aroused by the worsening initiative is activated outside of the constraints social and economic conditions after the imple- of the state. This obscures the ways in which mentation of SAPs, and were especially promi- civil society is ridden by unequal access to nent in sectors such as students and the urban power and by the existence of informal patterns working class. of subordination. These are also linked to per- sonalisation of politics, class, ethnicity, religion, THE ROLE OF SAPS gender and language. Structural adjustment cannot be dealt with as a Moreover, a concept of "civil society" based coherent whole presided over by the undifferen- on formal organisations could be inadequate to tiated logic of "neoliberalism". Rather, an under- grasp widespread patterns of informal solidarity standing of the variety of neoliber- not easily captured by structured associations. alisms in Africa provides a much Conversely, the structures most active for IF "CIVIL SOCIETY IS TO more analytically useful picture. The democratisation (trade unions, civics, student impact of SAPs in any given case is groups) are often also the most vulnerable to RETAIN ITS USEFULNESS influenced by the relative importance state repression. IN EXPLAINING of various sectors of society during Thus, if "civil society" is to retain its useful- OPPOSITION TO the process of transition. ness in explaining opposition to authoritarian For example, strong collective rule, this concept must be unpacked. AUTHORITARIAN RULE, forms of organisation force interna- THE CONCEPT MUST BE tional financial institutions and THE CRUDEST OIL UNPACKED. their local sponsors to modify their Nigeria's oil wealth decisively shaped the form approach to structural adjustment. of the state, its capability in the sphere of social On the other hand, neoliberal poli- and institutional engineering, and the nature ol cies themselves affect social actors adjustment policies supported by global finan- and their potential for resistance. cial institutions. After the first SAP was adopted In Nigeria, the emergence of neoliberal poli- in 1986 to cope with a crisis sparked by declin- cies and the crisis of the developmental author- ing oil revenues, Nigeria's role in raw materials itarian state provided constraints for various production characterised the intervention of the actors in "civil society". Social hardships and World Bank and the International Monetary political repression weakened some of the most Fund in the country. Oil is therefore at the ori- organised expressions of opposition, such as gins of the crises of the Nigerian state, and of the labour. The elaboration of alternatives to mili- constraints faced by pro-democracy forces. tary rule has, as a consequence, become a par- Nigeria's peculiar role in the international ticularly arduous task. economy was coupled to post-independence What follows is that the current crisis of the "modernisation", historically associated w itha military regime does not necessarily imply a process of accommodation by the state oi sec- parallel decline in the role of the military appa- tional interests competing for scarce resources. ratus as a force capable of engineering the polit- The state assumed a regulatory function in the ical transition. political and economic sphere on the basis of

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82 COMPARATIVE M 0 • N I "T "O R

patron-client relationships, which promoted the government's emphasis on oil export rapidly rise of a "political class", even without visible deteriorated the living standards of the urban links to class politics. working class and the rural population. Moreover, state support for rent-seeking by To provide an orderly management of such local elites substantially discouraged direct pro- socio-economic transformations, the 1979 ductive investment, and in this way contradict- Constitution opted for a federal form of state, in ed state strategies to promote a domestic indus- the context of the transfer of power from trial bourgeoisie. This contradiction was rein- General Obasanjo's military government to a forced by subsequent .state attempts to indi- civilian administration. This institutional dis- genise local production, spearheading a greater pensation allowed the combination of a contin- participation of Nigerian capital in internation- uing centralisation of oil rents in the federal alised business. state's hands with the possibility to decentralise However, Nigerian politics assumed more the distribution of such rents to elites based on markedly class-based features with the militari- local states' political constituencies, rather than sation of political life following the 1966 mili- on factional, ethnic support. tary coup, the bloody civil war sparked by Therefore, the process of redistribution of Biafra's secession, and the emergence of new resources articulated by the federal institutions elites. These latter were formed in the climate of would prevent the decentralisation of the elites the 1970s post-civil war reconstruction and the from becoming a centripetal force. The federal campaign for the "indigenisation" of production. state's expenditures for "develop- Compared to the traditional elites of the ment" were in fact to be channelled post-independence period, these elites were through local states as a form of INVESTMENTS WERE less dependent on the land and more connected "rational" state-society mediation to AIMED AT CATERING FOR to the industrialised economy and the political prevent disintegration along ethno- THE DEMANDS OF THE system under the aegis of state-led developmen- regional lines. talism (Graf, 1986). This historical trajectory proved NEW BOURGEOISIE. The 1970s oil boom lessened the state's conducive to the militarisation of dependence on foreign currency reserves, and political life in the age of structural allowed the government to channel oil export adjustment. Political authoritarianism facilitates revenues to the promotion of an indigenous the kind of economic liberalisation advocated by manufacturing, mercantile, and professional SAPs. Neoliberalism's "indifference" to democ- bourgeoisie, expanding the regime's base for ratic institutions makes it easy for market-orient- political patronage (Turner, 1979). ed policies to lead to authoritarian methods Foreign companies firmly maintained the when democracy does not provide elites with control of the oil sector, however. At the local the tools to cope with the social consequences. level, only intermediaries of these companies (primarily the state-owned Nigerian National THE AGE OF ADJUSTMENT Petroleum Corporation) benefited from the Nigerian military regimes during the 1980s boom, and did so in a way that did not con- defined adjustment policies imposed by the IMF tribute to the development of a local technology, and the World Bank as largely technical and infrastructure or technical cadres. non-ideological matters, by definition excluded At the same time, foreign debt escalated, from the agendas of parties and civil society given that new manufacturing investments made organisations. As a result, in response to height- possible by the boom were aimed at catering for ened worker resistance to IMF-inspired mea- the demand of the new bourgeoisie for imported sures, the regime could resort to unprecedented luxury consumption items, and for the produc- levels of repression. State violence and human tion of consumer goods with high intensity of rights abuses targeted workers, professionals, imported capital and raw materials. Rising infla- students and women engaged in micro and tion and the devastation of agriculture due to the macro levels of confrontation. The role of the

INDICATOR SA • Vol 15 No 3 83 COMPARATIVE MONITOR

state in restructuring the internal class composi- their escape from wage labour (Mustapba. |i)9i)

tion through SAPs and the management of the In this way, prospects for productivity pa(;ts debt crisis became contested as a result (Otobo, and worker cooperation that were required by 1992: 119). employers proved to be in contradiction wilh The embrace of neoliberalism by the Nigerian authoritarianism and neoliberalism. Relations state during the 1980s was not linear and uncon- between government and unions were strained troversial. The Shagari civilian administration as a result of resurgent worker struggles and the (1979-83) adopted a neoliberal approach with the 1989 anti-SAP popular riots (Otobo. Iili)2). Economic Stabilisation Act in 1982, while at the Finally, workers' survival strategies in the infor- same time remaining nominally committed to the mal sector met the plight of urban poor facing provision of public services. The exhaustion of deteriorated living standards and the breakdown the oil boom had left in its wake spiralling infla- of social services. These grievances combined tion, huge debt and a balance of payments crisis, with those of workers who had to sustain rela- while widespread corruption contributed to the tives in the depleted rural areas (Nnoli, 1993). government's legitimacy crisis. As a result, worker opposition to the SAI's The regime of General Buhari (1983-85), became a catalyst for the rejection of an author- which ousted Shagari with a coup, resisted the itarian and corrupt political regime, and of devaluation of the Naira (the national currency), Babangida's strategy of using SAP to usher in a the removal of oil price subsidies political transition based on the recomposition and large scale privatisation (Otobo, of elites around the project of economic liberal- isation (Momoh, 1996). POLITICAL 1992: 86-87). General Babangida's SAP of 1986, however, was fully AUTHORITARIANISM aligned with the IMF in the name of GUIDED TRANSITION? FACILITATES THE KIND OF the "national economic emergency". The combination of popular resistance to struc- As a consequence, currency devalu- tural adjustment, a state legitimacy crisis due to ECONOMIC ation, massive privatisation and the authoritarianism and widespread corruption, LIBERALISATION reduction of the oil subsidy were and the fiscal crisis brought about by declining ADVOCATED BY SAPS. fully endorsed (Olukoshi, 1989). oil revenues facilitated the regime's decision for Manufacturing production was a limited opening of the political system. On 3 undercut by economic austerity, the May 1989, the Babangida government lifted (lie. deterioration of the terms of trade, ban on political activities and determined crite- and currency devaluation. ria for registration for political parties. Restructuring and retrenchments heavily However, the six parties that managed to affected the industrial working class. Many meet the particularly strict requirements for reg- workers were plunged into the circuits of infor- istration (out of 13 which applied) were soon mal labour and undetected occupations. At the disbanded on the basis of allegations of faction- same time, ethnic and religious networks often alist activities and underground operations provided more stable links of solidarity than the before 1989. unions, which were also undermined by famil- This reinforced the "guided" nature of the ial, ethnic, regional bonds, and by informal transition to democracy, since only two parties, resistance and localised strategies for survival at the National Republican Convention (NRC) and the workplace level (Mustapha, 1991). the Social Democratic Party (SDP), both new However, the crisis of civil society did not creatures of the regime itself, were allowed to imply a crisis of resistance to neoliberalism, compete for the general elections scheduled for given that the control of the working class by the 1993. The presidential election of 12 June 1993, authoritarian regime was far from being stable. after the local and general elections, opposed In fact, while increased participation in the Alhaji Bashir Tofa (NRC) and Alhaji Moshood informal economy weakened formal worker Abiola (SDP). Abiola won on the basis of a large organisations, it also diminished the amount of popular support. time devoted by workers to their job, favouring Abiola was a politically moderate Yoruba

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Muslim businessman from the Southwest. He and the Abacha coup showed nonetheless that had, therefore, developed under Babangida's grassroots mobilisation was able to transcend administration strong political and business ties religious, ethnic and regional divisions, and to with the military and the predominantly articulate a mass demand for political democra- VI uslim and Hausa North, a region that had his- cy in the context of rising authoritarianism, cor- torically dominated the army's top ranks. ruption and socio-economic decay. With these somewhat ambiguous creden- Moshood Abiola was arrested few days after tials, Abiola enjoyed a substantial non-ethnic, he declared himself, on 11 June 1994, the legiti- cross-sectional and cross-religious mass sup- mate president of the country. Widespread port, which allowed him to defeat his rival protest discredited entirely the military govern- Bashir Tofa even in his own Kano stronghold in ment, bringing onto the street students, profes- the North. But the project of "guided" democra- sionals, public employees, human rights associ- tisation soon showed its own contradictory ations and trade unions against nature. The military authorities annulled the authoritarianism and structural results of the election on 22 June, claiming irreg- adjustment. STRONG CIVILIAN ularities in the two parties' primaries and in the Abacha's plan for his own "guid- GOVERNMENT LED BY counting of the votes (Bande, 1998). ed" constitutional transition to The armed forces decided to prolong their civilian rule were rapidly discredit- ABIOLA, WHOSE SUPPORT own administration until August 1993, after ed and delegitimated. The COULD ENCOMPASS BOTH which they appointed a "transitional" civilian "Constitutional Conference" inau- administration (Interim National Government, gurated on 27 June 1994, and boy- HIS SOUTHERN ORIGINAL l\G), responsible however to the National cotted by the democratic opposi- CONSTITUENCY AND Defence and Security Council, and headed by tion, enabled the recognition by NORTHERN MUSLIM Chief Ernest Shonekan, a political crony of Abacha, on 30 September 1996, of General Babangida. General Sani Abacha ousted five new parties for elections sched- VOTERS, REPRESENTED the ING (of which he was defence secretary) and uled in 1998. All these five crea- AN OBJECTIVE THREAT TO took power with a coup at the culmination of an tures of the regime eventually recog- intra-military struggle for power, on 17 nised Abacha himself as their only THE POLITICAL POWER OF November 1994. This further intervention in presidential candidate. THE MILITARY. political life gave the military full control of the In 1995 the new regime entered situation amid rising popular opposition, fresh negotiations with the World reversing the transitional phase that it itself had Bank and the International Monetary Fund initiated. around the Medium Term Programme (MTP), a In fact, the prospect of a strong civilian gov- review of the existing SAP. As a matter of fact, ernment led by Abiola, whose support could and regardless of contingent differences of opin- encompass both his Southern original con- ion, the basic thrust of the SAP was reinforced stituency and Northern Muslim voters repre- by the new measures: the IMF and the World sented an objective threat to the political power Bank asked for further currency devaluation, of the military and to the Northern elites that downsizing of government, cuts in public sustained it. Moreover, Abiola's personal ambi- employment, acceleration of privatisation and tions had probably made him a much less con- tighter fiscal discipline. trollable leader than what the generals assumed, The deficit/GDP ratio waS scheduled to fall as it is testified by Abiola's refusal to appoint a from 7.9% in 1994 to 1.6% in 1998, to allow for candidate suggested by General Babangida as a highly unlikely 5.5% GDP growth during his deputy. 1997-98. These aims were substantially reflect- The organisations of Nigerian civil society ed in the 1998 budget. have always been substantially divided on the Even if opposition to these measures and to personal and political credibility of Abiola him- the intensification of repression escalated after self as an individual. However, his popularity the annulment of the elections, the lack of artic- before and after the annulment of the elections ulation of a clear political democratic alternative

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played largely in favour of the status quo. for popular mobilisation and alternatives. The Sections of the peasantry and business could leaderships of the two parties either substantial- make common cause with labour in their oppo- ly accepted the coup, or chose to bargain with sition to SAP demanding, respectively, the re- the regime or, as Abiola did, appealed for for- introduction of agricultural subsidies and a new eign condemnation instead of mobilising an developmental policy to revive the domestic internal mass opposition. industrial base. But this did not amount to a generalised convergence of interests around a RENEWED OPPOSITION programme of democratic transition, confirming However, it was confirmed that the crisis of the the shortcomings of Nigerian "civil society". organs of civil society does not necessarily The demand for the release of Abiola and all imply a lack of capacity for resistance and for political prisoners as unavoidable steps for any movements for change to renew. New expres- credible transition unified all the pro-democra- sions of popular struggle were in fact originated cy forces. However, the power and coherence of by the simultaneous collapse of state legitimacy the popular opposition was undermined, apart and of the SAP mode of development. Since July from different opinions on Abiola and his 1994, upsurges of grassroots worker militancy, immediate recognition as legitimate particularly in the oil sector, have revitalised the president, by various factors of divi- democratic movement, aided by the struggles of sion. minorities affected by the combination of APART FROM HIS First, Lagos and other urban impoverishment and environmental degrada- SYMBOLIC APPEAL, areas dominated Nigerian opposi- tion, as in the case of the Ogoni people in the tion politics, which viewed the oil-rich Niger Delta. ABIOLA COULD HARDLY annulment as primarily an injustice Moreover, the decay of universities and the BE A CATALYST FOR perpetrated by the North's military repression of academic life catalysed militant ALTERNATIVES. and bureaucratic elites against the university staff associations, such as the ASUU South, especially the Yoruba-speak- (Academic Staff Union of Universities). The ers, whose thriving economic power ASUU challenged the consent of intellectuals to had been already heavily curtailed authoritarian rule, resisting government's by Abacha. Second, Nigerian "civil society" repression and attempts at co-option (Beckman proved to be a highly complex and contested and Jega, 1992). terrain. On the labour relations front, the centrality Third, the regime itself displayed a certain of the state in processes of development, is his- capacity to contest for the loyalty of important torically responsible for the politicisation of sectors of "civil society". Following Babangida's grassroots labour organisations. On I he other MAMSER (Movement for Mass Mobilisation, hand, at the level of central trade union politics, Self-Reliance and Economic Recovery), Abacha the state alternated co-option (in 1978 the was able to create a series of organic mass struc- National Labour Congress, NLC, was established tures capable of mobilising some support for the by the state as the sole recognised union centre) military, even if with uneven success. In partic- and repression to cope with intensifying worker ular, MAMSER managed to recruit the consent struggles after the adoption of the SAP. for the regime of significant intellectual strata The limited scale of proletarianisation in (Williams, 1998). Nigeria, high unemployment, and the role of the As a result of these factors, the pro-democ- authoritarian state as repository of the develop- racy movement has been increasingly fractured ment discourse and as the most important along ethnic, regional and religious lines employer made a meaningful system of collec- (Momoh, 1996), while no mass support could tive bargaining unviable. These shortcomings be built by the two parties admitted to the radicalised local and industrial unions, and annulled elections, given their nature as crea- allowed worker resistance to politicise bargain- tures of the regime. Apart from his symbolical ing itself beyond the limited sphere of "indus- appeal, Abiola could in fact hardly be a catalyst trial relations".

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All indication of the gap separating central Democracy (UAD), which gathers the CD togeth- union structures and grassroots struggles is er with other groups, among which is the given by the independence and radicalism Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People shown by highly dispersed local industrial affil- (MOSOP) (Momoh, 1998). iates in relation to union centres. "Covert" The Abacha regime responded with further forms of resistance, especially in the most inter- repression, including banishment of organisa- nationalised sectors of the economy such as the tions and detention of opponents, the army's oil industry, added to these dynamics. seizure of the offices of NLC, NUPENG and Repeated strikes in the oil industry after the PENGASSAN, and the execution of Ogoni lead- annulment of the 1993 elections saw two ers, most notably the writer Ken-Saro Wiwa. unions, NUPENG (blue collar workers) and The lack of any long-term solution to the PENGASSAN (clerical and staff association) at regime's political and economic crisis became the forefront of worker mobilisation. Their mil- apparent as a result. itancy eventually radicalised the NLC itself, Renewed resistance has proven more capa- which was forced to support the oil strikes with ble of attracting international attention to a call for a general strike in July 1994. Even if Nigeria than of articulating an opposition posi- the general strike was called off after one day, tion on a national level. However, the repeated workers overwhelmingly refused to go back to failure of the regime's attempts at a "guided" work for the following six weeks, after which transition to "multi-party" rule seems to pro- they surrendered to state violence and econom- vide some indications of a change in this ic hardship. respect. In any case, these dynamics indicate a As Terisa Turner (1997) notes, the conjunc- continuing relevance of grassroots activism at a tion of the oil workers' struggle and the Ogoni local level in defining collective movements people's mobilisation for indigenous and envi- able to deepen the regime's lack of legitimacy, ronmental rights helped to articulate local which is a logical precondition to any real coalitions, which opened new spaces for a democratic alternative. democratic opposition. Crucial to these alliances, defined as being of a "gender-cum- PROLONGED UNCERTAINTY class" nature, is the realisation of how the The nearly simultaneous deaths, between May authoritarian regime is functional to a project of and June 1998, of Moshood Abiola, in jail, and commodification of collective resources, or Sani Abacha have removed from the Nigerian "enclosures of the commons". political playing field the two characters who This process affects in different and interre- have personified the political contest over the lated ways a plurality of actors (women working nature of the transition in the last five years. on the land, minorities, waged workers), there- The new military ruler of the country, General by defining the issue of community control of Abdulsalam Abubakar, has renewed the gener- local resources as an integral aspect of new als' rhetorical commitment for a constitutional democratic spaces at the local level. transition to "multi-party rule", scheduled for Labour's opposition to military rule con- May 1999, through government-appointed elec- verged, in fact, with other social actors in a toral bodies. This resembles similar plans for a series of co-ordinating bodies of pro-democracy "guided" transition under past military admin- associations, which provided an oppositional istrations. alternative to discredited political parties in Curbs on trade union activities have been broad-based popular mobilisation after the lifted, and, on 16 June, Abubakar released vari- annulment of the 1993 elections. Among the ous political prisoners and union leaders arrest- most important of these groupings are the ed after the 1994 strike, among whom were Campaign for Democracy (CD) (which includes Frank Kokori (NUPENG) and Milton Dabibi the Lagos branches of Women in Nigeria and the (PENGASSAN). Nigerian Union of Journalists, and various However, most of the law and order legisla- human rights groups) and the United Action for tion of the past regime remains in place. In the

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meanwhile, the country is internationally iso- crisis of political parties, due to the role they lated, affected by a devastating economic crisis, have played inside the generals' schemes for a widespread devastation of physical, natural and "guided" transition. While the Babangida and intellectual resources, and social turmoil which Abacha regimes have come to identify "democ- culminated in mass demonstrations racy" with "multi-party government", this equa- after Abiola's death, to which the tion does not hold for a social opposition for regime has, once again, responded which the end of the military occupation of THE DEATHS OF violently. political life is a precondition for any real MOSHOOD ABIOLA AND As this paper has argued, the cri- democratisation. sis of civil society and the crisis of The Abubakar administration has not come SANI ABACHA HAVE state institutions are, under neolib- out with any real response to this demand, On REMOVED FROM THE eralism and structural adjustment the other hand, the institutionalisation ol civil NIGERIAN POLITICAL policies, ultimately complementary society in Nigeria is constrained not only by processes. As Mustapha (1991) state authoritarianism, but also by social and PLAYING FIELD THE TWO emphasises, structural adjustment economic policies that have contribnled lo CHARACTERS WHO HAVE implies either the incorporation or destroy the role of public powers in socio-eco- the dismantling of the associations nomic change. PERSONIFIED THE of civil society and the realignment To address these problems, the mere estab- POLITICAL CONTEST IN of state institutions along policy lishment of party pluralism and elected institu- THE LAST FIVE YEARS. requirements that are often in con- tions will not be by any means sufficient. The tradiction with meaningful dernoc- main challenge facing the Nigerian civil society, ratisation. therefore, seems to reside precisely in providing In the Nigerian case, the process of aborted an expanded view of democracy, capable ol' democratic transition has faced civil society including issues of social dislocation and organisations with either state repression or change expressed by the majority of the popula- subordinate co-option. The collapse of political tion which was mostly negatively affected by institutions, however, is matched by the parallel economic adjustment. 1

REFERENCES

Bande, Tijani (1998) Processes of Democratisation in May - 2 June (Cape Town: University of Cape Town). Nigeria, 1975-1998. Paper presented at Workshop on Mustapha, Abdul R. (1991), Structural Adjuslm-nt and Comparing Experiences of Democratisation in Multiple Modes of Social Livelihood in Nigeria, Nigeria and South Africa, 30 May - 2 June (Cape UNRISD Discussion Paper No.26 (Geneva: I \K1SD], Town: University of Cape Town), Mnoli, Okwudiba (1993) The Deteriorating Onuliiinn Beckman, Bjorn and Attahiru Jega (1995) Scholars and of the Nigerian Working Class, in Dead I: ml lo Democratic Politics in Nigeria, Review of African Nigerian Development. An Analysis of the I'oliUcal Political-Economy. 64. Economy of Nigeria 1979-1989, edited by ,t Jk'.vuclilia Graf, William (1986) Nigerian "Grassroots" Politics: Nnoli (Dakar: Codesria): 154-179. Local Government, Traditional Rule and Class Olukoshi, Adebayo (1989) Impact of IMF-Woiln Hank Domination., Journal of Commonwealth and Programmes ill Nigeria, in The IMF, the Wori

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88

LEGAL INDICATOR

WORK: ECONOMIC STATUS 100%

90%

80% NO ONE CAN DENY THE NEED 70%

60% FOR STATE ACTION TO PROVIDE 50% • a» GREATER OPPORTUNITIES TO 40% • PREVIOUSLY DISADVANTAGED 30% • m• 20% (• GROUPS. BiliSSiiili 10% •Ji r - _ y. 0% • African African Coloured Coloured Indian Indian White White women men women men women men

Employed Q 56 45 28 52

Unemployed 0 21 17 15 13 4 3

Notecon active • 24 43 59 44 69

WORK: WAGES AND SALARIES

(THOUSANDS OF RANDS)

White ZZI DISPARITIES BETWEEN RACES AND GENDERS IN TERMS OF Indian INCOME IN SOUTH AFRICA ARE • Men F1 Worn AMONG THE MOST EXTREME IN Coloured THE WORLD. Africar

10 15 20 30

EDUCATION AND TRAINING: EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT

100% N I 90% _

80% •I A LARGE PART OF THESE 70% - B INCOME INEQUALITIES ARE 60% - DUE TO UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION 50% -

40% - - OF SKILLS, HOWEVER, WHICH

30% WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO

20% REMEDY. 10% • P 0% - I T African African Coloured Coloured Indian Indian White White •vomen men women men women men women men

NONED 2 0 0 less than Matrrc [J 1 2 2 4 Matric and/or Dtp £3 15 18 15 27 55 Degree • 60 63 73 59 36 Unknown • 23 16 10 0

Source: October Household Survey. 1995; Budlender, CSS. 1998 LEGAL M~ oTTT o R

EMPLOYMENT EQUITY LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE OR NECESSARY EVIL?

ADELE THOMAS Wifs Business School

• As THE EMPLOYMENT EQUITY ACT BECOMES LAW, IT IS • DESPITE THESE ISSUES, EMPLOYMENT EQUITY WILL ESSENTIAL THAT EMPLOYERS EMBRACE THIS CHANGE SOON BE a FACT, AND IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT EMPLOY-

AND MAKE USE OF DIVERSITY. ERS FIND A WAY TO TURN THESE CHALLENGES TO THE

NATIONAL ADVANTAGE. • NUMEROUS OBJECTIONS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE

ACT, INCLUDING CONCERN OVER A NUMBER OF ILL- • "LEADING DIVERSITY" MEANS CREATING A WORK- Executive DEFINED "GREY AREAS". SIMILAR PROBLEMS HAVE PLACE CULTURE IN WHICH DIVERSE PERSPECTIVES Summary BEEN EXPERIENCED IN OTHER COUNTRIES IMPLE- ARE ENCOURAGED AND UTILISED TO ENHANCE COM-

MENTING EMPLOYMENT EQUITY PROGRAMMES, AND PETITIVENESS. THIS MUST BE INITIATED FROM THE

SO THESE OBJECTIONS CANNOT EASILY BE DISMISSED. TOP DOWN, AND ENTAILS ARTICULATING "SOUND

BUSINESS REASONS" LINKING DIVERSITY TO OTHER • AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PLANS OPERATING IN SOUTH BUSINESS GOALS. AFRICA SINCE THE EARLY 1990S HAVE PRESENTED A

NUMBER OF PROBLEMS WHICH ARE ALSO INSTRUCTIVE.

THE EMPLOYMENT EQUITY ACT have access to or to participate or advance in has been passed by Parliament and the Council employment; and of Provinces and awaits the signature of the • disclosure, to the Department of Labour, of President of South Africa. While the legislation income differentials, albeit in a separate, itself has been contested by some political par- non-public document. ties and aspects of the legislation have been contested by business, it nevertheless is very On a broader level, the following concerns have likely that organisations will be required to been expressed: comply with this legislation in the near future. • that the over-regulation of the labour market, Business is concerned about certain "difficult to coupled with the government's role of define" concepts, including: "watchdog", will result in a decrease in over- • the definition of what constitutes "suitably seas investments and entrepreneurial initia- qualified" people from designated groups tives, especially in the medium and small (African, coloured, Indian, female, and peo- business sector, which together contribute ple with disabilities); nearly 33% of GDP and nearly 45% of private 8 capacity to acquire skills necessary for the sector employment (Dickman, 1998); job within a reasonable time; • that the costs to government, and hence the * reasonable accommodation to be made to taxpayer, will be increased by the adminis- enable a person from a designated group to trative burden of monitoring and enforce-

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91 LEGAL MONITOR

ment and that the legal structures will be that, with due recognition of the concerns noted overburdened and unable to cope with the above, energy and focus should now be placed cases where legal rulings will be required; upon a concerted effort to ensure that employ- • that heavy costs, administrative and manage- ment equity initiatives are implemented in an rial burdens in the private sector will impact holistic manner which benefit both employees on company growth and, accordingly, opti- and the company as a whole. mal growth in the private sector (Dickman, 1998, Jafta, 1998); WHAT IS EMPLOYMENT EQUITY? » that the shortage of skills in some sectors At the outset, it is essential to distinguish will make black skills more expensive and between the concepts employment equity and unaffordable to smaller companies, and that affirmative action, which, thus far, have these increased labour costs will provide fur- appeared interchangeably in a stew of jargon in ther disincentives for investment; South Africa. Employment equity is intended to • that rather than creating new jobs for new achieve equity in the workplace through the entrants to the labour market, employees will elimination of unfair discrimination and simply be shifted from some employers to through affirmative action strategies. others (Jafta, 1998); Affirmative action involves targeted actions to 9 that indirect and opportunity costs will be redress the disadvantages experienced by desig- incurred by, for example, poor hiring deci- nated groups in the workforce. sions (to reach employee targets), and nega- To do this, it is suggested, the organisational tive affects on employee morale (Jafta, 1998); environment must be prepared to be receptive • that race classification will be heightened to new entrants at all levels, which requires that and "reverse discrimination" will lead to a the employment equity initiative and the resul- decrease in employee loyalty and the lack of tant diversity in organisations must be led from retention of skilled employees, primarily the top. white males - such racial classification, Jafta "Leading Diversity" requires that an envi- (1998, p.5) notes, incurs a social cost by rein- ronment is created within which all employees, forcing "negative stereotypes, racial tension whether existing employees or those brought and a stigmatisation that thwarts the efforts into the organisation through affirmative action of members of the preferred groups to pur- measures, are allowed to contribute fully to the sue their goals on merit and hard work rather life and objectives of the business. than preferential treatment"; • that those people from designated groups UNFAIR DISCRIMINATION who still require training and development Any employer, irrespective of the number of will have unrealistic short-term expectations people employed or of its financial turnover, is which will further increase racial and social required to adhere to the sections of the Act that conflict within companies; prohibit unfair discrimination. No employer • that those from designated groups, expecting may discriminate in employment practices on secured positions, may adopt a culture of enti- any of the following grounds: tlement "that undermines initiative, self-con- race, gender, sex, pregnancy (intended preg- fidence and self-reliance" (Jafta, 1998, p.5). nancy, termination of pregnancy or any medical circumstances relating to pregnancy), marital These arguments cannot simply be disregarded, status, family responsibility (care and support as similar problems have been noted in other of spouse, partner, dependent children or countries where employment equity initiatives immediate family members), ethnic or social have been adopted for many years. origin, colour, sexual orientation, age, disabili- However, the reality is that South African ty, religion, HIV status, conscience, belief, polit- organisations will be required to comply with ical opinion, culture, language and birth. the forthcoming legislation, and, it is suggested In addition, medical testing, which includes

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92 I FY^AI Jmmgfc—l^uim^.* a msramt 0 N I T 0 R

any test, question, inquiry or other means des- « measures to retain and develop people from ignated to ascertain whether an employee has designated groups. any medical condition, is prohibited. The Act states specific conditions under which medical This requires that companies consult with testing can be conducted. Should the Labour employees via representative trade unions or Court deem testing for HIV status to be justified, their nominated representatives. Such consulta- the employer may be required to adhere to cer- tion must include people from both designated tain conditions. and non-designated groups. Psychological testing and any similar assess- In conjunction with employees, companies ments are prohibited unless the test or assess- are required to draw up an Employment Equity ment can be scientifically shown to be valid and Plan, the contents of which include: reliable, can be applied fairly to all employees • Conducting an analysis reviewing: recruit- and is not biased against any employee or group. ment, advertising and selection procedures; Discrimination is not regarded to be unfair if appointments and the appointment process; affirmative action measures are taken, or if dis- job classification and grading; remuneration crimination is based on the inherent require- and employee benefits; job assignments; the ments of the job. However the burden of proof working environment and facilities; training rests with the employer to answer allegations of and development; performance management unfair discrimination. systems; promotions; transfers; disciplinary measures; employment barriers. THE PLAN • Preparing a Plan setting objectives and All employers of 50 or more employees or those timetables with realistic targets having a total annual turnover that is equal to (not quotas); setting out mea- above "the applicable annual turnover of a sures to address employment PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTING small business", as outlined in Schedule 4 to barriers; specifying indicators to IS PROHIBITED UNLESS the Act, is a designated "employer". Such gauge affirmative action achieve- THE TEST IS NOT BIASED employers must adopt affirmative action mea- ment; planning for the reason- sures to ensure that suitably qualified people able accommodation of people AGAINST ANY EMPLOYEE from designated groups have equal employment from designated groups; creating OR GROUP. opportunities and are equitably represented in an action plan to retain, train all occupational categories and levels of the and develop people from desig- workforce. nated groups; detailing special The definition of "suitably qualified" measures to be taken in relation to people includes any one of or any combination of a per- with disabilities and those with family son's formal qualifications, prior learning, rele- responsibilities; detailing measures to vant experience or the capacity to acquire, with- address sexual and racial harassment; speci- in a reasonable time, the ability to do the job. It fying procedures and responsibilities for is with regard to the "capacity to acquire" that a implementing, monitoring and evaluating "grey" area emerges. the plan. Affirmative action measures must include: 9 measures to identify and eliminate employ- The Employment Equity Plan will be a public ment barriers, including unfair discrimina- document and public companies are required to tion; publish a summary of the plan in its annual 9 measures taken to further diversity in the financial reports. The plan must be signed by workplace; the Chief Executive Officer. 9 measures taken to make reasonable accom- A designated employer employing fewer modation for people from designated groups than 150 people must submit its first plan to the to ensure their representivity in the work- Director-General of Labour within 12 months of place; and commencement of the Act or, if later, the date at

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which the employer becomes a designated 1996). A recent South African study (Thomas employer, and thereafter submit a report once 1998) has highlighted that, while black man- every two years on the first day of October. A agers may leave companies for higher salaries designated employer employing 150 or more and related perks, issues relating to not fitting people must submit the first plan within six into historically established corporate cultures months after the commencement of the Act or, seem also to have a bearing on what has become if later, the date at which the employer becomes known derogatorily as "job hopping". a designated employer and thereafter, a report Thus, while Employment Equity and related once per year on the first day of October. strategies of affirmative action can be legislated, The Act ensures that employees are not prej- the organisational context within which desig- udiced should they wish to bring to nated groups work must be prepared to sustain the attention of the Department of Employment Equity initiatives. This is more dif- MANAGING EMPLOYEE Labour practices that are unfair or ficult to achieve because it involves paradigm DIVERSITY IS SIMPLY contradictory to the Act or shifts, the challenging of stereotypes and the Employment Equity Plan. Similarly, embracing of risk to create an organisational GOOD PEOPLE employees cannot be promised any environment within which diverse groups of MANAGEMENT. advantage in exchange for not people can work together effectively. reporting "misdemeanours". The This essentially calls for leading and manag- Act sets out a process for reporting ing employee diversity. It is something which on both the aspects of unfair discrimination and cannot be legislated, but without which employer non-compliance with aspects pertain- Employment Equity initiatives will not work. ing to the Employment Equity Plan, and poten- tial areas of concern are required to be LEADERSHIP addressed "in-house" as the first step. To effectively implement Employment Equity initiatives, an organisational environment must PROBLEMS be created and developed in which all employ- However, at this point, it is perhaps pertinent to ees can contribute to the competitive advantage consider problems with programmes of affirma- of the organisation and where no one is exclud- tive action, which, after all, have been in oper- ed on the basis of factors unrelated to produc- ation in most large South African companies tivity. This endeavour is not in opposition to, or since the early 1990s. in competition with, programmes of Employ- In a national survey of some of the top 100 ment Equity, but targets the organisational envi- companies in South Africa (Thomas, 1996), ronment to ensure that it is able to sustain such Chief Executive Officers and Human Resources programmes. Directors noted the following problems: Managing employee diversity is, ultimately, • lack of trust and confidence between sub- simply good people management. It's an ability groups; that can be developed in managers at all levels • breakdown in communications between through a combination of training and experience. subgroups; However, it has to be lead from the top. "Leading • prejudices and stereotypes; poor teamwork; diversity" is the volition and commitment which • decreased productivity; inter-group conflict; managers, at all levels, must evidence in the • high staff turnover especially among those process of organisational transformation. previously disadvantaged people recruited Employment Equity is an integral component of to companies; and such transformation, and one which, to be effec- • unhealthy competition. tive, must be led at all levels within companies. This in no way implies that the problems Similar problems have been noted to occur highlighted earlier will simply disappear. among diverse employees in the United States However, it is suggested, that if there is a will to (Morrison, 1982; Cox, 1993; Thomas and Ely, commit to doing the right thing, the process of

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managing the problems will be creatively 9 promoting a culture of inclusivity, critical to addressed. a commitment to total quality; Central to the effective leadership of diversi- « utilising all employees fully and effectively; ty created by Employment Equity programmes 9 promoting company flexibility and adapt- is the establishment of "sound business rea- ability; sons" that tie the achievement of organisational 9 enhancing team performance; objectives to diversity. The objective is to ensure a change in organisational culture which- 9 developing a reputation as an employer of allows people to utilise, among many other fac- choice and thereby attracting and retaining tors, their different insights and methods, their the best talent especially among those repre- creativity and different perspectives, borne out senting new consumer markets, of the diversity which they bring to the compa- ny, be it by virtue of race, gender, ethnicity, dis- A recent study (Wright et al,, 1995) has also ability or other life experience. indicated the positive effects of being a "model Part of the sound business reasons for employment equity company" on stock price embracing diversity are the negative effects on valuation in the United States. the organisation if its diverse employees are not In summary, Employment Equity initiatives fvdly utilised. These business reasons must be should go hand in hand with initiatives to specific to the organisation, taking into account address the organisational environment within the industry within which it operates and its which such initiatives must be effected. Central particular products and services. However, to the implementation of Employment Equity some general business reasons that have been programmes is leadership that recognises that advanced by Morrison (1982), Thomas (1991), there are sound business reasons for ensuring Cox (1993) and Thomas and Ely (1996) include: that organisations attract and fully utilise • tapping into skills not previously available diverse employees for competitive advantage. in a company characterised by an homoge- Michael Porter (1990, p.72) has noted that neous workforce; "government cannot create competitive indus- • enhancing company creativity and problem- tries, only companies can do that". While it is solving; certain that Employment Equity will be enact- • responding quickly and effectively to ed, what will prove of greater challenge is the diverse markets and managing productive commitment of leadership to go beyond pure relationships with diverse customers, sup- legislative requirements and to manage the pliers and distributors; challenges that are presented. 1

REFERENCES

Cox, T. Jr. {1993) Cultural Diversity in Organizations: Rivonia: Business and Marketing Intelligence. Theory, Research and Practice. San Francisco: Thomas, A. (1998) A Piano of Discord: Reasons for Job Berrett-Koehler. Mobility among Black Managers. Rafidburg: Dickman, J. (1998) Employment Equity Bill: SACOB'S Knowledge Resources (in process). Viewpoint, Accountancy SA, July. Thomas, D.A. & Ely R.J. (1996) Making Differences Jafta, R. (1998) The high cost of affirmative action. Matter; A New Paradigm for Managing Diversity. Focus, April. Harvard Business fiev/ew, September-October, p 79-90. Morrison, A.M. (1982): The New Leaders: Guidelines Thomas, R.R. (Jr) (1991) Beyond Race and Gender: on Leadership Diversity in America. San Francisco: Unleashing the Power of Four Total Workforce by Jossey-Bass. Managing Diversity. New York: AMACOM. Porter, M. E. (1990) The Competitive Advantage of Wright, P., Ferris, S.P., Hffler, J.S. & Knoll, M, (1995) Nations. Harvard Business Renew, 90, 2, March- Competitiveness through Management of Diversity: April, p.72-93. Effects on Stock Price Valuation, Academy of Thomas, A, (1996) Going Beyond Affirmative Action - Management Journal, 38 (1), p.272-287. Managing Diversity in South African Organisations.

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EDUCATION • TRAINING • EDUCATION TRAINING EDUCATION TRAINING EDUCATION •

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THAT'S WHY THE SUGAR HELPING TO BRING EDUCATION

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i '[Ajnagnitie 'il Weir of sand containing the minerals ilnienite. rulile and zircon. RBM

I INDICATOR PROJECT SOUTH AFRICA

UNIVERSITY OF NATAL

Indicator Project South Africa Centre for Social and Development Studies

University of Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa

Telephone: (031) 260 1375 or (031) 260 2525 « Fax: (031) 260 2359

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