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Defence and Security After Brexit Understanding the Possible Implications of the UK’S Decision to Leave the EU Compendium Report

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Defence and Security After Brexit Understanding the Possible Implications of the UK’S Decision to Leave the EU Compendium Report Defence and security after Brexit Understanding the possible implications of the UK’s decision to leave the EU Compendium report James Black, Alex Hall, Kate Cox, Marta Kepe, Erik Silfversten For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1786 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: HMS Vanguard (MoD/Crown copyright 2014); Royal Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon FGR4, A Chinook Helicopter of 18 Squadron, HMS Defender (MoD/Crown copyright 2016); Cyber Security at MoD (Crown copyright); Brexit (donfiore/fotolia); Heavily armed Police in London (davidf/iStock) RAND Europe is a not-for-profit organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.rand.org/randeurope Defence and security after Brexit Preface This RAND study examines the potential defence and security implications of the United Kingdom’s (UK) decision to leave the European Union (‘Brexit’). Specifically, it seeks to identify those policy areas, strategic concerns or military capabilities that might be most affected, as well as to explore and define the spectrum of possible outcomes in each area. The goal is to help policymakers both inside and outside the UK to understand the key questions provoked by Brexit, and thus to inform how defence and security actors begin to plan for, mitigate and address these uncertainties as the UK begins negotiations to leave the European Union. This RAND study comprises three publications: This compendium report, which provides the greatest level of detail on the analysis conducted. The associated overview report, which outlines the principal findings of the study. A standalone international perspectives report, which provides a snapshot of selected international perspectives on Brexit following the June 2016 referendum. Funding for this research and analysis was provided by the independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs). The study was conducted by the Defence, Security and Infrastructure programme at RAND Europe—a European subsidiary of the RAND Corporation—and the International Security and Defense Policy Center within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, an FFRDC operated at RAND’s U.S. locations. RAND Europe is a not-for-profit organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. For more information please contact: Alex Hall Research Group Director, Defence, Security and Infrastructure RAND Europe, Westbrook Centre, Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 1YG, United Kingdom Tel. +44 1223 353 329 [email protected] 1 Table of contents Preface ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 Figures and tables ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................... 7 Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................ 9 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 15 1.1. Study context ............................................................................................................................. 16 1.2. The US presidential election and Brexit ...................................................................................... 22 1.3. Structure of the report ................................................................................................................ 24 2. Britain’s role in defence and security ................................................................................... 25 2.1. The UK as a defence and security power .................................................................................... 25 2.2. UK roles and responsibilities ...................................................................................................... 26 3. Defence spending, research and industry ............................................................................. 33 3.1. Economic uncertainty after the UK’s Brexit vote ........................................................................ 33 3.2. Defence budgets in the UK and EU ........................................................................................... 36 3.3. R&D and innovation, including the future of the EDA ............................................................. 43 3.4. Procurement strategy and the EU Defence Directives ................................................................. 48 3.5. Defence industry, exports and collaboration ............................................................................... 53 4. The UK’s conventional defence capabilities and multinational defence commitments (EU CSDP and NATO) ..................................................................................................... 61 4.1. The UK and its conventional military capabilities ...................................................................... 61 4.2. The UK’s future involvement in multinational defence formations ............................................ 65 4.3. The UK’s future involvement in EU defence and security activities ............................................ 66 4.4. The EU as an international defence and security actor post-Brexit .............................................. 70 5. Scotland and the UK nuclear deterrent ................................................................................ 81 5.1. Scottish independence ................................................................................................................ 81 5.2. Future of the UK nuclear deterrent ............................................................................................ 91 3 RAND Europe 6. Migration, border security and overseas territories .............................................................. 103 6.1. European migrant crisis ............................................................................................................ 103 6.2. Border with France ................................................................................................................... 106 6.3. Northern Ireland ...................................................................................................................... 109 6.4. Gibraltar .................................................................................................................................. 114 6.5. Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus ................................................................................................ 116 6.6. Falkland Islands and other Overseas Territories ........................................................................ 118 7. Counterterrorism, organised crime, cyber and resilience ...................................................... 121 7.1. Terrorism and serious and organised crime ............................................................................... 121 7.2. Cybersecurity ........................................................................................................................... 129 7.3. Critical infrastructure and resilience ......................................................................................... 134 7.4. Space policy and security .......................................................................................................... 136 7.5. Energy and environmental security ........................................................................................... 139 8. Emerging themes and reflections ........................................................................................ 143 8.1. Context of deep uncertainty ..................................................................................................... 143 8.2. Implications of Brexit for defence and security in the UK and EU ............................................ 144 8.3. Knock-on effects for cooperation with non-EU institutions and allies ...................................... 148 9. Future directions for policymakers and researchers .............................................................. 151 9.1. Integrating defence and security into the wider Brexit negotiations..........................................
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