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March Forecast 2015 10.Indd March 2015 Monthly Forecast 2 Status Update since our Overview February Forecast 4 Libya 5 Democratic Republic of France will hold the presidency of the Security • two Secretary-General’s reports on the AU/ the Congo Council in March. An open debate is planned on UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur, by Under- children and armed conflict, with Secretary-Gen- Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- 7 Afghanistan eral Ban Ki-moon expected among the briefers. tions Hervé Ladsous; and 9 Ukraine Also planned is a debate on Haiti, with a brief- • possibly, the situation in Liberia. 10 Syria ing by the head of the UN Stabilization Mission 12 UNDOF (Golan Heights) in Haiti, Sandra Honoré. There will also be a Briefings in consultations are likely on: 14 Haiti debate on Afghanistan, during which the Coun- • developments in Ye m e n , by the Secretary-Gen- cil is expected to renew the mandate of the UN eral’s Special Adviser, Jamal Benomar; 15 Children and Armed Assistance Mission in Afghanistan and receive a • Syria’s chemical weapons, by High Represen- briefing from its head, Nicholas Haysom. tative for Disarmament A!airs Angela Kane; 17 Lebanon Briefings are planned on: • implementation of resolution 2046 on 18 Sudan and South • UN cooperation with the EU by Secretary- Sudan-South Sudan relations, most likely Sudan General Ban Ki-moon and EU High Repre- by Special Envoy Haile Menkerios (by video 20 Sudan (Darfur) sentative for Foreign A!airs and Security Pol- teleconference); 21 DPRK (North Korea) icy Federica Mogherini; • the implementation of resolution 1701, which 22 Iran • the work of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Commit- called for a cessation of hostilities between tee, by its chair, Ambassador Román Oyarzun Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel in 2006, by 23 Liberia (Spain); and Special Coordinator Sigrid Kaag; and 25 Visiting Mission to • the Council visiting mission to Africa, by its • activities of the UN Disengagement Observer Africa leads. Force, by the Department of Peacekeeping 26 EU-UN Cooperation Briefings, followed by consultations, are Operations. 28 Notable Dates expected on: • the situation in Libya, by Bernardino León, Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso- the head of the UN Support Mission in Libya lutions to renew the mandates of: (UNSMIL) and the work of the 1970 Libya • UNSMIL; Sanctions Committee, by its chair, Ambassa- • UNAMA; dor Hussein Hani! (Malaysia); • MONUSCO; and • the humanitarian situation in Syria, by Under- • the Panel of Experts assisting the 1718 Demo- Secretary-General for Humanitarian A!airs cratic People’s Republic of Korea Sanctions Valerie Amos; Committee. • the Middle East, by Special Coordinator Rob- ert Serry; The Council is also likely to undertake a visit- • developments in the Democratic Republic of ing mission to CAR, Burundi and the AU head- the Congo by the head of the UN Organiza- quarters in Addis Ababa. tion Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Throughout the month members will be fol- Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), Martin lowing closely developments in Mali and Ukraine Kobler, and Special Envoy to the Great Lakes and additional meetings may be scheduled.• Region Said Djinnit; 27 February 2015 This report is aVailable online at securitycouncilreport.org. For daily insights by SCR on eVolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our February Forecast Counter-Terrorism dozens of people, including members of gov- and Minister for Foreign A!airs of Kosovo Council members condemned the Islamic ernment (SC/11791). At press time, Council Hashim Thaçi also addressed the Council. State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) for the mur- members were due to hold consultations on der of a Japanese journalist on 1 February 26 February with Ambassador Rafael Darío Burkina Faso (SC/11762) and the murder of a Jordanian Ramírez Carreño (Venezuela), chair of the During 10 February consultations, under air force pilot on 3 February (SC/11764). On 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions Com- “any other business”, Council members 12 February, the Council adopted resolution mittee. They are expected to discuss recom- were briefed by Under-Secretary-General for 2199 targeting some of the sources of funding mendations due on 27 February from the Political A!airs Je!rey Feltman on Burkina of ISIS and Al-Nusra Front. The resolution Monitoring Group regarding exemptions to Faso. Feltman had been in Burkina Faso on focuses on the way in which illegal oil export- the arms embargo for commercial ships in 4 February, the same day that members of ing, tra"c of cultural heritage, ransom pay- Somali ports. the presidential guard called for the resigna- ments and external donations improve the tion of the interim prime minister. He told operational capacity of ISIS and Al-Nusra. It Guinea-Bissau Council members that Burkina Faso’s transi- also imposed the obligation on neighbour- On 5 February, the Council was briefed (S/ tion is still fragile and stressed the need for ing countries to report to the 1267/1989 Al- PV.7376) by Special Representative Miguel the Council to support the transition, which Qaida Sanctions Committee on the interdic- Trovoada on the Secretary-General’s latest envisages elections to restore constitutional tion of vehicles used to transfer economic Guinea-Bissau report and strategic assess- order in October. Feltman also briefed on his resources departing from or going to ISIS or ment of UNIOGBIS (S/2015/37). State- visits to Ghana and Togo and said there are Al-Nusra held areas of Syria and Iraq. ments were also made by Ambassador Anto- political tensions in Togo ahead of presiden- nio de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil) as chair of the tial elections in March. Boko Haram Peacebuilding Commission’s country con- In February, Council members issued three figuration for Guinea-Bissau, and represen- Abyei press statements condemning Boko Haram tatives of Guinea-Bissau, ECOWAS and the On 10 February, Under-Secretary-General attacks: SC/11763 on 2 February, SC/11768 Community of Portuguese Language Coun- for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous on 5 February and SC/11780 on 13 February. tries. The briefing was followed by consulta- briefed Council members in consultations on In addition, the 2 February statement urged tions with Trovoada. The Council adopted UNISFA. Ladsous reiterated key recommen- enhanced regional cooperation to combat the resolution 2203 on 18 February, renewing dations outlined in the Secretary-General’s group and commended Chad’s assistance. UNIOGBIS until 29 February 2016. 30 January UNISFA report (S/2015/77). He The 5 February statement also welcomed underscored the recommendation that the the expert meeting being held in Cameroon Mali mission engage more systematically in dis- to complete the concept of operations for the On 6 February, the Council adopted a presi- arming individuals and armed groups. He Multinational Joint Task Force. dential statement ahead of the start of the also highlighted that the mission’s mandate fifth round of the inter-Malian negotiation could be adjusted to enable UNISFA police Somalia process in Algiers scheduled for 8 February to engage in community protection commit- On 4 February, the Council was briefed by (S/PRST/2015/5). The statement expressed tees—which have been established to fill the Special Representative Nicholas Kay, the the pressing need to reach a comprehensive vacuum created by the lack of legal and secu- head of the UNSOM, on the latest report and inclusive peace agreement that addresses rity institutions in Abyei—and are particu- of the Secretary-General (S/2015/51) (S/ the root causes of the crisis in Mali. It under- larly important given the rising criminality in PV.7375). Maman Sidikou, Special Repre- lines the need for the government of Mali the area. On 26 February, the Council adopt- sentative of the Chairperson of the AU Com- and the armed groups that are party to the ed resolution 2205 and renewed the mandate mission for Somalia and head of AMISOM, June 2013 Ouagadougou Preliminary Agree- of UNISFA until 15 July 2015. briefed the Council via video teleconference ment to engage with sustained political will, from Mogadishu. The briefing was followed a spirit of compromise and in good faith Ye m e n by consultations with Kay. Council mem- through senior and fully empowered rep- On 12 February, the Council was briefed bers issued three press statements during the resentatives in the inter-Malian negotiation by Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon, his month. The 5 February statement expressed process in Algiers. Special Adviser on Yemen Jamal Benomar concern at the ongoing political crisis in and Ambassador Alya Ahmed Saif Al-Thani Somalia, particularly delays in the formation Kosovo (Qatar) on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation of a government (SC/11769). On 10 Febru- On 6 February, Special Representative and Council (S/PV.7381). The briefing was fol- ary, Council members welcomed the approv- head of UNMIK Farid Zarif briefed the lowed by consultations. Three days later, the al of the cabinet by the federal parliament of Council on the most recent UNMIK report Council adopted resolution 2201 on 15 Feb- Somalia (SC/11773). On 20 February, Coun- (S/2015/74) and latest developments (S/ ruary in response to the political crisis. The cil members strongly condemned the terrorist PV.7377). First Deputy Prime Minister and resolution strongly deplored the Houthis’s attack by Al-Shabaab on the Central Hotel Minister for Foreign A!airs of Serbia Ivi- actions to dissolve parliament on 6 Febru- in Mogadishu, which caused the death of ca Dačić and First Deputy Prime Minister ary and take over government institutions, 2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Status Update since our February Forecast (con’t) urged the acceleration of negotiations the Council in the regular monthly meeting Foreign Minister Wang Yi (S/PV.7389).
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