March 2015

Monthly Forecast

2 Status Update since our Overview February Forecast 4 Libya 5 Democratic Republic of France will hold the presidency of the Security • two Secretary-General’s reports on the AU/ the Congo Council in March. An open debate is planned on UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur, by Under- children and armed conflict, with Secretary-Gen- Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- 7 Afghanistan eral Ban Ki-moon expected among the briefers. tions Hervé Ladsous; and 9 Ukraine Also planned is a debate on Haiti, with a brief- • possibly, the situation in Liberia. 10 Syria ing by the head of the UN Stabilization Mission 12 UNDOF (Golan Heights) in Haiti, Sandra Honoré. There will also be a Briefings in consultations are likely on: 14 Haiti debate on Afghanistan, during which the Coun- • developments in Ye m e n , by the Secretary-Gen- cil is expected to renew the mandate of the UN eral’s Special Adviser, Jamal Benomar; 15 Children and Armed Assistance Mission in Afghanistan and receive a • Syria’s chemical weapons, by High Represen- briefing from its head, Nicholas Haysom. tative for Disarmament A!airs Angela Kane; 17 Lebanon Briefings are planned on: • implementation of resolution 2046 on 18 Sudan and South • UN cooperation with the EU by Secretary- Sudan-South Sudan relations, most likely Sudan General Ban Ki-moon and EU High Repre- by Special Envoy Haile Menkerios (by video 20 Sudan (Darfur) sentative for Foreign A!airs and Security Pol- teleconference); 21 DPRK (North Korea) icy Federica Mogherini; • the implementation of resolution 1701, which 22 Iran • the work of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Commit- called for a cessation of hostilities between tee, by its chair, Ambassador Román Oyarzun Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel in 2006, by 23 Liberia (Spain); and Special Coordinator Sigrid Kaag; and 25 Visiting Mission to • the Council visiting mission to Africa, by its • activities of the UN Disengagement Observer Africa leads. Force, by the Department of Peacekeeping 26 EU-UN Cooperation Briefings, followed by consultations, are Operations. 28 Notable Dates expected on: • the situation in Libya, by Bernardino León, Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso- the head of the UN Support Mission in Libya lutions to renew the mandates of: (UNSMIL) and the work of the 1970 Libya • UNSMIL; Sanctions Committee, by its chair, Ambassa- • UNAMA; dor Hussein Hani! (Malaysia); • MONUSCO; and • the humanitarian situation in Syria, by Under- • the Panel of Experts assisting the 1718 Demo- Secretary-General for Humanitarian A!airs cratic People’s Republic of Korea Sanctions Valerie Amos; Committee. • the Middle East, by Special Coordinator Rob- ert Serry; The Council is also likely to undertake a visit- • developments in the Democratic Republic of ing mission to CAR, Burundi and the AU head- the Congo by the head of the UN Organiza- quarters in Addis Ababa. tion Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Throughout the month members will be fol- Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), Martin lowing closely developments in Mali and Ukraine Kobler, and Special Envoy to the Great Lakes and additional meetings may be scheduled.• Region Said Djinnit; 27 February 2015 This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org.

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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our February Forecast

Counter-Terrorism dozens of people, including members of gov- and Minister for Foreign A!airs of Kosovo Council members condemned the Islamic ernment (SC/11791). At press time, Council Hashim Thaçi also addressed the Council. State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) for the mur- members were due to hold consultations on der of a Japanese journalist on 1 February 26 February with Ambassador Rafael Darío Burkina Faso (SC/11762) and the murder of a Jordanian Ramírez Carreño (Venezuela), chair of the During 10 February consultations, under air force pilot on 3 February (SC/11764). On 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions Com- “any other business”, Council members 12 February, the Council adopted resolution mittee. They are expected to discuss recom- were briefed by Under-Secretary-General for 2199 targeting some of the sources of funding mendations due on 27 February from the Political A!airs Je!rey Feltman on Burkina of ISIS and Al-Nusra Front. The resolution Monitoring Group regarding exemptions to Faso. Feltman had been in Burkina Faso on focuses on the way in which illegal oil export- the arms embargo for commercial ships in 4 February, the same day that members of ing, tra"c of cultural heritage, ransom pay- Somali ports. the presidential guard called for the resigna- ments and external donations improve the tion of the interim prime minister. He told operational capacity of ISIS and Al-Nusra. It Guinea-Bissau Council members that Burkina Faso’s transi- also imposed the obligation on neighbour- On 5 February, the Council was briefed (S/ tion is still fragile and stressed the need for ing countries to report to the 1267/1989 Al- PV.7376) by Special Representative Miguel the Council to support the transition, which Qaida Sanctions Committee on the interdic- Trovoada on the Secretary-General’s latest envisages elections to restore constitutional tion of vehicles used to transfer economic Guinea-Bissau report and strategic assess- order in October. Feltman also briefed on his resources departing from or going to ISIS or ment of UNIOGBIS (S/2015/37). State- visits to Ghana and Togo and said there are Al-Nusra held areas of Syria and Iraq. ments were also made by Ambassador Anto- political tensions in Togo ahead of presiden- nio de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil) as chair of the tial elections in March. Boko Haram Peacebuilding Commission’s country con- In February, Council members issued three figuration for Guinea-Bissau, and represen- Abyei press statements condemning Boko Haram tatives of Guinea-Bissau, ECOWAS and the On 10 February, Under-Secretary-General attacks: SC/11763 on 2 February, SC/11768 Community of Portuguese Language Coun- for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous on 5 February and SC/11780 on 13 February. tries. The briefing was followed by consulta- briefed Council members in consultations on In addition, the 2 February statement urged tions with Trovoada. The Council adopted UNISFA. Ladsous reiterated key recommen- enhanced regional cooperation to combat the resolution 2203 on 18 February, renewing dations outlined in the Secretary-General’s group and commended Chad’s assistance. UNIOGBIS until 29 February 2016. 30 January UNISFA report (S/2015/77). He The 5 February statement also welcomed underscored the recommendation that the the expert meeting being held in Cameroon Mali mission engage more systematically in dis- to complete the concept of operations for the On 6 February, the Council adopted a presi- arming individuals and armed groups. He Multinational Joint Task Force. dential statement ahead of the start of the also highlighted that the mission’s mandate fifth round of the inter-Malian negotiation could be adjusted to enable UNISFA police Somalia process in Algiers scheduled for 8 February to engage in community protection commit- On 4 February, the Council was briefed by (S/PRST/2015/5). The statement expressed tees—which have been established to fill the Special Representative Nicholas Kay, the the pressing need to reach a comprehensive vacuum created by the lack of legal and secu- head of the UNSOM, on the latest report and inclusive peace agreement that addresses rity institutions in Abyei—and are particu- of the Secretary-General (S/2015/51) (S/ the root causes of the crisis in Mali. It under- larly important given the rising criminality in PV.7375). Maman Sidikou, Special Repre- lines the need for the government of Mali the area. On 26 February, the Council adopt- sentative of the Chairperson of the AU Com- and the armed groups that are party to the ed resolution 2205 and renewed the mandate mission for Somalia and head of AMISOM, June 2013 Ouagadougou Preliminary Agree- of UNISFA until 15 July 2015. briefed the Council via video teleconference ment to engage with sustained political will, from Mogadishu. The briefing was followed a spirit of compromise and in good faith Ye m e n by consultations with Kay. Council mem- through senior and fully empowered rep- On 12 February, the Council was briefed bers issued three press statements during the resentatives in the inter-Malian negotiation by Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon, his month. The 5 February statement expressed process in Algiers. Special Adviser on Yemen Jamal Benomar concern at the ongoing political crisis in and Ambassador Alya Ahmed Saif Al-Thani Somalia, particularly delays in the formation Kosovo (Qatar) on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation of a government (SC/11769). On 10 Febru- On 6 February, Special Representative and Council (S/PV.7381). The briefing was fol- ary, Council members welcomed the approv- head of UNMIK Farid Zarif briefed the lowed by consultations. Three days later, the al of the cabinet by the federal parliament of Council on the most recent UNMIK report Council adopted resolution 2201 on 15 Feb- Somalia (SC/11773). On 20 February, Coun- (S/2015/74) and latest developments (S/ ruary in response to the political crisis. The cil members strongly condemned the terrorist PV.7377). First Deputy Prime Minister and resolution strongly deplored the Houthis’s attack by Al-Shabaab on the Central Hotel Minister for Foreign A!airs of Serbia Ivi- actions to dissolve parliament on 6 Febru- in Mogadishu, which caused the death of ca Dačić and First Deputy Prime Minister ary and take over government institutions,

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Status Update since our February Forecast (con’t) urged the acceleration of negotiations the Council in the regular monthly meeting Foreign Minister Wang Yi (S/PV.7389). Sec- to reach a consensus solution regarding on the Middle East (S/PV.7386). Feltman retary-General Ban Ki-moon briefed and the political impasse, and placed a num- remarked that the conflict between Israel and 78 member states spoke. The open debate, ber of demands on the Houthis. It further the Palestinians continues to threaten further which was held to mark the 70th anniversary requested the Secretary-General to report escalation, which could potentially have irre- of the founding of the UN and to commemo- back on implementation of the resolution versible consequences for both parties and rate the end of World War II, focused on the while declaring the Council’s readiness to for the two-state solution. He also reported history of the Charter and how the world has take further measures in the case on non- that the Palestinians are facing acute fiscal changed since it was adopted and rea"rmed implementation by any Yemeni party. On 20 challenges that must be urgently addressed members’ commitment to the purposes and February, the 2140 Yemen Panel of Experts and that in February, the Israeli government principles of the Charter. China circulated a transmitted its final report (S/2015/125) to announced that, for a second month, it would concept note prior to the debate (S/2015/87). the Council. On 24 February, the Coun- withhold the transfer of the tax revenues it cil adopted resolution 2204, renewing the collects on behalf of the Palestinian Author- OSCE assets freeze and travel ban until 26 Feb- ity in retaliation for the Palestinian accession On 24 February, the Council was briefed by ruary 2016 and extending the mandate of to the ICC. Feltman also reported that the Serbian First Deputy Prime Minister and the Panel of Experts until 25 March 2016. Middle East Quartet met on 8 February to Minister for Foreign A!airs Ivica Dačić, the In a 25 February press statement, Council prioritise the urgent resumption of negotia- Chairperson-in-O"ce of the Organization members welcomed the release of President tions and a strengthening of its engagement for Security and Co-operation in Europe of Abdo Rabbo Mansour Hadi from house to prepare for a revival of the peace process. (OSCE) (S/PV.7391). Dačić presented the arrest and demanded that the Houthis Turning to Gaza, he stated that the Secre- main objectives of the OSCE in 2015 and immediately release the prime minister and tary-General continues to be very concerned addressed the crisis in Ukraine. members of the cabinet (SC/11798). about the fragile security situation, the vola- tile political dynamics and the persistently South Sudan Iraq slow pace of reconstruction. On 24 February, the Council was briefed On 17 February, the Council held its regular on the situation in South Sudan by Under- quarterly briefing and consultations on Iraq Burundi Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- (S/PV.7383). Special Representative Nicko- On 18 February, the Council adopted a pres- tions Hervé Ladsous and Assistant Secretary- lay Mladenov presented the most recent idential statement marking the termination General for Human Rights Ivan Šimonović UNAMI report (S/2015/82) and the report of the mandate of BNUB on 31 December (S/PV.7392). Ladsous highlighted the main on Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and property 2014 (S/PRST/2015/6). The Council wel- findings of the Secretary-General’s report (S/2015/70). It was Mladenov’s last briefing comed the significant progress achieved on UNMISS (S/2015/118), while Šimonović as the head of UNAMI, and he delivered sev- in Burundi while noting that several chal- discussed his visit to the country in early Feb- eral messages to the Iraqi government. He lenges remain to ensure that progress is not ruary. In the consultations that followed the said it was important to reign in fighters act- reversed, including reports of intimidation, briefing, a draft resolution was circulated to ing outside the constitution (a reference to harassment, political violence, arbitrary members calling for the establishment of a Shi’a militias carrying out revenge attacks on arrest and detention and other curtailments sanctions regime on South Sudan. Sunnis); rebuild the security forces on a truly of the rights of freedom of peaceful assembly national basis; revise the laws related to de- and expression of political actors. The Coun- Central African Republic Baathification and finalise national guard leg- cil also stressed the crucial need for a free, On 26 February, Council members were islation to empower provinces to be respon- transparent, credible, inclusive and peaceful briefed by Under-Secretary-General for sible for their own security and bring arms electoral process in 2015. Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous under the control of the government. under “any other business” at the request of UN Charter the Secretary-General for a troop increase for Israel/Palestine On Monday (23 February), the Security MINUSCA contained in his 29 January letter On 18 February, Under-Secretary-General Council held a ministerial-level open debate to the Council (S/2015/85). for Political A!airs Je!rey Feltman briefed on the UN Charter presided over by China’s

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Libya

Expected Council Action House decided to suspend its participation. a strategic assessment of the UN presence In March, the Council is expected to renew Despite some preliminary talks, violence in Libya, with recommendations to focus on the mandate of the UN Support Mission in persists between Misrata-based and Islamist mediation, support to key institutions (such Libya (UNSMIL). Bernardino León, the militias (collectively known as Libya Dawn) as the electoral commission, the central bank Special Representative and head of UNSMIL, and Zintan-based militias and elements of the or the Constitutional Drafting Assembly), is expected to brief on developments and the army commanded by rogue General Khalifa provision of essential services, human rights Secretary-General’s latest report. Haftar (Operation Dignity). reporting and advocacy as well as coordina- The Council will also likely renew the Although fighting appears to have moved tion of international engagement on Libya. mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting away from Tripoli, the situation in the capital the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, and continues to be extremely fragile. On 27 Jan- Sanctions-Related Developments expects a briefing by its chair, Ambassador uary, Council members condemned a deadly The 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee members Hussein Hani! (Malaysia). terrorist attack against the Corinthia Hotel on 20 February. The report highlights how arm The mandates of UNSMIL and the Panel in Tripoli claimed by ISIS. Despite the slight transfers to Libya, exempted by the Committee expire on 13 March and 13 April, respectively. improvement in the humanitarian situation or not, have contributed to the consolidation of in Tripoli, political and human rights activists, militias on the ground. The report also provides Key Recent Developments media professionals and other public figures recommendations to make the sanctions regime Following the 15 February beheading of 21 have been targeted since the takeover of the Coptic Christians, including 20 Egyptians, in city by Libya Dawn forces, according to a 23 Sirte by a Libyan branch of the Islamic State December 2014 report issued by UNSMIL Human Rights-Related Developments of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), León briefed the and the O"ce of the High Commissioner for The Human Rights Council will consider the report of the High Commissioner for Human Rights Council on 18 February along with repre- Human Rights. on Libya and on related technical support and sentatives from Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Italy Fighting continues in Benghazi, where capacity-building needs (A/HRC/28/51), during its and Algeria. While Libyan Foreign Minis- forces loyal to Haftar are still conducting a ter Mohamed El Hadi Dayri called for the military operation targeting the Shura Council is facing the worst political crisis and escalation lifting of the arms embargo for the govern- of Benghazi Revolutionaries—an alliance that a multitude of heavily armed groups exercising ment, León emphasised how the success of comprises Al-Qaida a"liate Ansar al-Sharia - the political dialogue and the formation of along with other armed groups. UNSMIL has tions of international human rights and humani- a national unity government are essential to received reports of indiscriminate shelling by tarian law with impunity amid the broadening combat terrorism. both sides, as well as indiscriminate airstrikes political crisis. The report documents that during Despite the growing threat of terrorism, by the air force aligned with Haftar. 2014, civilians were victims of indiscriminate artil- lery and air attacks as well as numerous incidents continuous violence on the ground and out- On 13 December 2014, Libya Dawn of targeted violence, with cases of harassment, standing political divides, León pursued the launched an operation to take Libya’s two intimidation, torture, numerous abductions and e!orts to facilitate a political dialogue. On largest oil export terminals, Es-Sider and Ras summary executions of human rights defend- 14-15 and 26-27 January, two rounds of Lanuf. The fighting shut down the terminals’ ers, civil society activists, journalists and other talks were held in Geneva, although the for- operations, resulting in a reduction of Libya’s media professionals, as well as members of the mer parliament, the General National Con- overall oil production from 900,000 barrels Hospitals, schools, as well as airports and other gress (GNC) refused to participate. (The per day last October to 325,000 barrels per public infrastructure were attacked and dam- GNC does not accept the legitimacy of day in January. aged, or used for military purposes. The report the House of Representatives, which is the According to UNSMIL, many of the viola- also highlights the extremely vulnerable situation internationally recognised parliament.) On tions and abuses described in the 23 Decem- of migrants in Libya and the thousands of people 17 January, Council members welcomed the ber 2014 report “potentially fall under the - first round of talks and strongly urged all jurisdiction of the ICC, which is continuing ing and reconciliation commission or measures relevant Libyan stakeholders to attend the to investigate the situation in Libya.” How- of redress for victims and emphasises the need next round. The next day the GNC agreed ever, the cooperation between Libya and the to strengthen state institutions, ensure account- to participate in the talks on the condition ICC has been contentious. Following the 10 ability for human rights violations and support the that they take place in Libya. On 11 Febru- December 2014 ICC decision on the non- ongoing political dialogue. While the continuing violence has had a disastrous impact on the run- ary, a new round of talks, which included compliance of Libya with the Court on the ning of some key institutions, in particular the jus- the GNC, was held in the Libyan city of case against Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the matter tice system, others continue to function but need Ghadames, where León held separate meet- was referred to the Security Council. support, most notably the Constitution Drafting ings with the parties. On 23 February, the On 13 February, the Secretariat circulated Assembly, according to the report.

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2174 (27 August 2014) imposed sanctions on those undermining the completion of the political transition. S/RES/2146 (19 March 2014) imposed measures on vessels transporting crude oil illicitly exported from Libya. S/RES/2144 (14 March 2014) extended the mandates of UNSMIL and the Panel of Experts. Security Council Press Statements SC/11792 (20 February 2015) condemned a bomb attack in al-Qubbah claimed by ISIS. SC/11782 (15 February 2015) condemned the murder of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in Libya. SC/11754 (27 January 2015) condemned the terrorist attack against the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli. SC/11738 (17 January 2015) strongly urged all relevant Libyan stakeholders to attend the next round of talks. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7387 in Libya with the participation of Libya, Egypt, Italy, Algeria and Tunisia. S/PV.7345Security Council Letter S/2014/953 (29 December 2014) transmitted the ICC decision on the non-compliance of Libya to the Security Council. Secretary-General’s Report S/2015/113 (13 February 2015) was a strategic assessment of the UN presence in Libya.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Libya (con’t)

Key Issues international crimes; and the need for a political solution to the A key issue in Libya is how to achieve a cease- • authorising member states to enforce the conflict in Libya is framing discussions in fire between warring parties. Stopping con- arms embargo on the high seas or in the the Council. As a response to recent terror- tinual violations of international humanitar- air and to prevent the illicit export not only ist attacks, the position of the internationally ian law by the parties is a related issue. of crude oil but of its derivatives and other recognised Libyan government, supported An overarching issue is bridging the politi- natural resources; by Egypt and echoed in the Council by Jor- cal divisions in Libya and ending the current • establishing control mechanisms to ensure dan, has been to push for lifting the arms stando! between institutions in Tripoli and the neutrality of the Central Bank of Libya; embargo for the government. At press time Tobruk/al-Bayda in order to avoid a de facto • threatening all member states violating the Council members were negotiating such a partition of the country. Supporting the dia- arms embargo with secondary sanctions; resolution drafted by Jordan, although it was logue process facilitated by León is a related • further specifying the designation criteria unclear if it would garner enough support issue. for spoilers undermining the political pro- given the opposition of some Council mem- The growing threat of terrorist groups cess in Libya; and bers worried about the impact of lifting the with regional reach in Libya is an urgent issue. • refocusing UNSMIL’s mandate as sug- arms embargo on conflict dynamics on the An urgent issue is the role of regional and gested by the Secretary-General. ground and their preference to wait for the international actors that are contributing to An additional option for the Council is political dialogue to yield results. Earlier, a the escalation of conflict in Libya. to impose measures under resolution 2174 UK-drafted press statement, reiterating that (travel ban and assets freeze) against armed there is no military solution to the political Options militias and other spoilers that threaten the crisis in Libya, had been dropped following The Council could adopt a resolution: peace, stability or security of Libya. Jordan’s concerns over its possible interpreta- • urging all parties to agree on a ceasefire; tion as questioning Egyptian airstrikes target- • expressing concern about attacks against Council and Wider Dynamics ing ISIS in Derna on 16 February. civilians in Libya that can amount to The tension between countering terrorism The UK is the penholder on Libya.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action been turbulent on several fronts. The Allied combat has been reported. In March, the Council will be briefed by Mar- Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan reb- On the political front, violence erupted tin Kobler, Special Representative and head el group, continues to wreak havoc in the on 19 January for several days in Kinshasa, of the UN Organization Stabilization Mis- area of Beni, North Kivu, where 17 people Goma, Bukavu and Lubumbashi during pro- sion in the Democratic Republic of the Con- were hacked to death with machetes on 4 tests against a proposed electoral law. Clashes go (MONUSCO). The Special Envoy to the February. Regarding the Forces démocra- between protesters and government forces left Great Lakes Region, Said Djinnit, will also tiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR), between 27 and 42 people dead. The proposed brief on the latest report on the implementa- MONUSCO suspended its support for law included a clause that called for a census tion of the Peace, Security and Cooperation the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) before holding presidential elections scheduled (PSC) Framework Agreement. operation against the FDLR after the DRC for 2016. The protesters claimed that because The Council is expected to renew the refused to remove two generals suspected of conducting a census would take several years, mandate of MONUSCO, including its inter- human rights abuses. A DRC government the provision was an attempt by President vention brigade, which expires on 31 March spokesperson said that the DRC would not Joseph Kabila to extend his presidency beyond 2015. remove the two generals unless they were the two terms allowed in the constitution. On convicted. MONUSCO’s action does not to 15 February, the DRC senate adopted the Key Recent Developments a!ect other joint operations. Meanwhile, the legislation without the disputed clause, and The situation in the Democratic Republic DRC has stated that operations against the presidential and legislative elections have been of the Congo (DRC) in recent weeks has FDLR commenced unilaterally, yet so far no scheduled for 27 November 2016.

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DRC Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2198 (29 January 2015) renewed the DRC sanctions regime and the mandate of the Group of Experts. S/RES/2147 (28 March 2014) renewed the mandate of MONUSCO, including its intervention brigade. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2015/1 (8 January 2015) reiterated the need for the DRC, together with MONUSCO, through its intervention brigade, to neutralise the FDLR by commencing military operations immediately. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7367Security Council Letter S/2015/9 (6 January 2015) was from the DRC expressing its commitment to undertake military action against the FDLR. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2014/957 (30 December 2014) was the strategic review of MONUSCO. S/2014/956 (30 December 2014) was the latest MONUSCO report. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General Martin Kobler (Germany) MONUSCO Force Commander Lieutenant General Carlos Alberto dos Santos Cruz (Brazil) MONUSCO Size, Composition and Cost of Mission Strength as of 31 January 2015: 21,060 troops (including 484 military observers and 1,101 police), 920 international civilian Approved budget (1 July 2014-30 June 2015): $1.46 billion Mission duration: July 2010 to present

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Democratic Republic of the Congo (con’t)

The Council has received several recent depend on the DRC’s capacity to progres- particular the disarmament and reintegra- briefings on the situation in the DRC. Kobler sively take over the mission’s functions and tion of combatants by the DRC, including briefed members via video-teleconference achieve specific targets and criteria that are the deplorable living conditions in some of under “any other business” on 5 January at to be developed jointly with the government. the pre-disarmament demobilisation and the request of France. He updated them with He added that neutralising armed groups reintegration camps (one example being the statistics about the surrender of members of is a key priority for MONUSCO and oper- Kotakoli site where a 1 October 2014 Human the FDLR and confiscated weapons. He add- ations against the FDLR must commence Rights Watch report indicates that over 100 ed that MONUSCO was ready to commence immediately. Such operations, he said, will combatants and their dependants have died operations against the FDLR once Kabila require both resources and time, and mea- from starvation and disease). approved the MONUSCO-FARDC Joint sures should be taken to avoid humanitar- Directive for military operations (an opera- ian consequences for the population in the Options tional plan for joint military engagement). areas concerned. In the renewal of MONUSCO’s mandate, The DRC said in a 6 January letter that the Council might: military action against the FDLR is inevitable Sanctions-Related Developments • call on the DRC and other countries to and that all necessary operational measures The chair of the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee, improve implementation of their commit- Dina Kawar (Jordan), briefed the Council on the will be taken to that e!ect. In a telephone ments under the PSC Framework, includ- report and recommendations of the Committee’s conversation with Secretary-General Ban Group of Experts (S/2015/19) on 22 January. She ing the neutralisation of armed groups; Ki-moon on 7 January, Kabila assured him informed the Council of her intention to visit the • reduce MONUSCO’s troop numbers by that the DRC was ready to take action, with Great Lakes Region in 2015 and the Committee’s 2,000 in accordance with the recommen- the available assistance of MONUSCO. (The intention to meet with the DRC’s neighbouring dation of the strategic review; countries in March. She also suggested that FARDC, however, has reportedly cooperated • call on the DRC to remove command- Under-Secretary-General and Emergency Relief with the FDLR in the past.) Coordinator Valerie Amos, Kobler and the chair ers suspected of human rights violations On 8 January, the Council adopted a pres- of the African Group of UN member states should from positions of power and cooperate idential statement taking note of the DRC’s brief the Committee. with MONUSCO in its operation against statement that military action is “inevitable” On 29 January, the Council adopted resolu- the FDLR (if this issue has not been tion 2198 renewing the DRC sanctions until 1 July and reiterating the need for the DRC, togeth- resolved by the time the Council adopts 2016 and the mandate of the Group of Experts er with MONUSCO, through its interven- until 1 August 2016. During the negotiations on the renewal); tion brigade, to neutralise the FDLR by com- the resolution, a permanent member (with the • indicate that MONUSCO is authorised to mencing military operations immediately. To support of some other Council members) wanted act against the FDLR unilaterally without that end, it called on Kabila to immediately to change the language referring to FDLR lead- the cooperation of the FARDC; and approve the Joint Directive. ers as including perpetrators of “the 1994 geno- • authorise MONUSCO to conduct a joint cide against the Tutsi in Rwanda” to “the geno- On 22 January, the Council was briefed cide in Rwanda” (the latter wording was used in assessment with the government to define by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeep- UN documents until resolution 2136 of January a clear benchmark and goal-oriented even- ing Operations Hervé Ladsous on the strate- 2014, when Rwanda insisted on adding the words tual exit strategy for MONUSCO. gic review of MONUSCO and on MONUS- “against the Tutsi” from that point onward). How- CO’s latest report. Ladsous noted criticism ever, other Council members opposed the pro- Council and Wider Dynamics posed change, and resolution 2198 refers to the from national interlocutors regarding the genocide against the Tutsi. Council members continue to be concerned poor performance of some of MONUSCO’s about the need to neutralise the FDLR, with contingents. He said a change of behav- no indication that the DRC has taken any iour is required by some contingents and Key Issues action on the ground against the group at that they all must be willing to use force to An immediate issue is to oversee MONUS- press time. For some Council members, the protect civilians. He conveyed the review’s CO’s operations in neutralising rebel groups, public friction between MONUSCO and key recommendation that the force level be including the ADF, ensuring, in particular, the DRC over the leadership of the opera- decreased by 2,000 troops, based on the rela- that the DRC follows through on its state- tion must be understood in the wider context tive improvement in security in some parts ments concerning military action against of the DRC’s questionable commitment to of the DRC, improvements in the capacity the FDLR, and MONUSCO’s role in these neutralising the FDLR. The rift also raises of the FARDC and MONUSCO’s transfor- operations, while limiting any humanitarian concerns over the possibility that Rwanda mation into a more agile and flexible force. consequences for civilians. could resort to unilateral action in DRC ter- He stated that Kabila had voiced his wish to A related issue is maintaining a productive ritory against the FDLR, as it has done in the see MONUSCO reduce its troop numbers working relationship between MONUSCO past. If joint MONUSCO-DRC operations more significantly but Ladsous warned that and the government, which is crucial for the are not feasible, some Council members may any such decrease could have negative impli- overall success of the mission and achieving reconsider their opposition to unilateral anti- cations on the ability of MONUSCO to fulfil progress in the DRC. FDLR operations by MONUSCO’s inter- its mandate. As for future reductions and an Another key issue is to follow closely the vention brigade. exit strategy, Ladsous said that these should implementation of the PSC Framework, in Council members are also concerned

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Democratic Republic of the Congo (con’t) that the friction between MONUSCO and to do with internal politics than an actual review to downsize the mission by 2,000 the DRC concerning the FDLR operation change in the DRC’s attitude towards the troops. At the same time, some would like may reflect a more general rift. At this point UN presence. more information about how MONUSCO’s in time, however, it is too soon to tell if this At the recent consultations, it seemed that operations will adapt with its remaining reflects a low point in a fluctuating relation- Council members were in general agreement resources and troop numbers. ship with the Kabila regime that has more with the recommendations of the strategic France is the penholder on the DRC.

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action approval by the Wolesi Jirga (the lower house the conflict began in 2001, while the nearly In March, the Council will hold its quarter- of the parliament), had to withdraw because 3,700 civilians who died as a result of the ly debate on the UN Assistance Mission in they held dual citizenship, which disqualified fighting last year represented a 25 percent Afghanistan (UNAMA). Nicholas Haysom, the them from serving as cabinet ministers under rise from 2013. Special Representative of the Secretary-Gener- the Afghan constitution. On 28 January, the In recent months, the heightened violence al and head of UNAMA, is expected to brief. Wolesi Jirga approved eight nominated min- in Afghanistan has continued without signs The Council also plans to renew UNAMA’s isters and the proposed director general of of abating. On 31 December 2014, up to 25 mandate, which expires on 17 March. the National Directorate of Security. Ghani civilians were killed and 45 wounded in an indicated that he would present the remain- apparent accident when a mortar fired from Key Recent Developments ing cabinet nominees to the Wolesi Jirga in an Afghan military checkpoint landed on a The Council held its last quarterly debate the near future, but at press time, this had wedding party in Sangin district, Helmand on Afghanistan on 18 December 2014. Hay- yet to be done. province. A suicide bombing at a funeral in som and Yuri Fedotov, the Executive Direc- On 12 December 2014, the Council Mihtarlam, the capital of Laghman province tor of the UN O"ce on Drugs and Crime, adopted resolution 2189 to welcome “the in eastern Afghanistan, claimed the lives of briefed. Haysom said that Ashraf Ghani and agreement between NATO and Afghanistan 15 people and injured an additional 39 on 29 Abdullah Abdullah were to be commended to establish the post-2014 non-combat Reso- January; Afghan authorities have accused the for their commitment to the national unity lute Support Mission, which will train, advise Taliban of this attack. On 20 January 2015, government. (In September 2014, the two and assist the Afghan National Defence and eight civilians died when an IED blew up rival political leaders signed an agreement Security Forces”. The Resolute Support Mis- their vehicle in Ghazni province, while anoth- setting out a power-sharing arrangement sion (RSM) consists of approximately 13,000 er two civilians were killed in Washir district, by which Ghani became president and troops. While other NATO countries contrib- Helmand province, on 6 February when an Abdullah became his chief executive o"- ute to the mission, the large majority of these IED set by insurgents exploded. Over 20 cer, responsible for management of day-to- troops are from the US. Afghan police were killed in Logar province day government operations.) Haysom also The security situation remains very fragile when four Taliban suicide bombers attacked urged “the political leaders to conclude the and continues to take a heavy toll on Afghan their police station on 17 February. process for the appointment and approval of security forces and civilian populations. As Insurgents have also attacked a number senior government o"cials”. Fedotov said the NATO-led combat mission in Afghani- of schools recently. In eastern Afghanistan, a that in 2014 the estimated area of opium stan (International Security Assistance Force, girls’ school was set on fire in Naray district, cultivation in Afghanistan was the highest it or ISAF) drew down its forces in 2014, Kunar province, on 8 February. On 10 Febru- has ever been. He further argued that more Afghan security personnel were able to rely ary, militants torched a co-educational school, needed to be done “to ensure that action to less on NATO’s combat troops and close air also in Kunar province. Other attacks against weaken the stranglehold of drugs and crime support, which enabled insurgents to con- schools were also reported in Nangahar prov- goes hand in hand with e!orts to strengthen duct large scale conventional attacks that ince in late January and early February. the licit economy”. heightened the death toll of Afghan security On 9 February, a US drone killed Mul- The presidential palace announced on 12 forces and civilians caught in the cross-fire. lah Abdul Rauf Khadim. Khadim was one January that Abdullah and Ghani had agreed Meanwhile, insurgents continued to employ of a handful of former Taliban commanders on 25 nominees for their cabinet after three suicide attacks and improvised explosive in Afghanistan to announce his loyalty to the months of negotiations on the composition devices (IEDs) with devastating e!ect. More Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham. of the national unity government. Howev- than 5,000 Afghan security personnel were On 4 December 2014, Afghanistan and er, a number of the nominees, who require killed in 2014, the highest number since the UK co-hosted the London Conference

UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2189 (12 December 2014) welcomed the agreement establishing the RSM. S/RES/2145 (17 March 2014) renewed the mandate of UNAMA until 17 March 2015. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/876 (9 December 2014) was the UNAMA report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7347 (18 December 2014) was the most recent UNAMA debate. Sanctions Committee Document S/2015/79 (2 February 2015) was the report of the 1988 Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Afghanistan (con’t) on Afghanistan, which included the par- Key Issues • emphasise the linkages between extrem- ticipation of 59 states, international organ- A key issue is how well Afghan security forces ism and natural resource exploitation, in isations and members of Afghan civil soci- will be able to maintain stability in the coun- keeping with the findings of the recent ety. At the conference, Afghanistan and its try, considering that the RSM is a non-com- report of the Analytical Support and Sanc- international partners recommitted to the bat mission. tions Monitoring Team. Tokyo mutual accountability framework of A related issue is the high number of civil- Other options include: 2012. Through this framework, Afghanistan’s ian casualties caused by the ongoing conflict. • streamlining the text by removing non- international partners promised to maintain Another related issue, moving forward, is essential language to produce a shorter, significant financial support for Afghanistan what can be done to curtail the heightened more concise resolution, as last year’s reso- through 2017 in exchange for Afghanistan’s violence in the country, given the apparent lution was 17 pages; or on-going e!orts to make progress in meeting reluctance of the Taliban to engage in rec- • renewing the mandate for a shorter peri- commitments to good governance, the rule onciliation with the government at the pres- od of time while signalling to Ghani and of law, human rights and e!ective financial ent time. Abdullah the need to finalise the forma- management. How e!ectively Ghani, Abdullah and their tion of their government. supporters will be able to work together in Sanctions-Related Developments the government of national unity is also an Council Dynamics The Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring important issue. The importance of filling Council members are broadly supportive Sanctions Committee in December 2014, and the the remaining cabinet positions in a manner of UNAMA’s mandate to promote the rule Committee subsequently transmitted the report that is mutually acceptable to the Ghani and of law, to provide good o"ces, to monitor to the Council on 2 February. The report notes an Abdullah camps is a related issue. human rights, to facilitate humanitarian apparent rise in the Taliban’s involvement in “crim- Another important issue is the prepara- assistance, to coordinate international assis- tions for the Wolesi Jirga elections planned tance and to provide electoral support. There - napping for ransom”. It also warns that this trend for 2015. Originally scheduled to be held is likewise ongoing consternation about the has negative implications for peace and security by 23 May, it now appears unlikely that the violence in Afghanistan and the impact of the in Afghanistan, as it “encourages those within the elections can take place this soon for politi- conflict on civilians. A number of members Taliban…who have the greatest economic incen- cal, economic and other reasons. Abdullah also emphasise the importance of ensuring tives to oppose any meaningful process of recon- has already indicated that electoral processes that the gains in the rights of women since ciliation with the new government”. should be reformed before another Afghan 2001 are consolidated and built upon. Sev- election is held. Most notably, he has called eral members, but most notably France and Human Rights-Related Developments for the country’s election commissioners to Russia, consistently highlight their concerns - be replaced. about drug cultivation, production and traf- sioner for Human Rights and UNAMA jointly pub- ficking and the ways in which the illicit funds lished “Afghanistan: Annual Report 2014 on the - Options generated by drugs support terrorism. China, ing to the report, if the current trend of more fre- The most likely option is for the Council to which has substantial oil and mineral inter- quent and larger ground engagements between renew UNAMA for an additional year. In ests in Afghanistan and is reportedly con- large numbers of Afghan security forces and anti- renewing the mandate, the Council could cerned about a potential security vacuum to government elements continues, including indis- decide to: its west given the departure of the NATO-led criminate shelling and the use of mortars, rocket propelled grenades, IEDs and other weapons in • underscore the heightened impact of the ISAF, appears keen to play a growing medi- civilian-populated areas, it is highly likely that civil- fighting on civilians and urge the govern- ation role between the Afghan government ian casualties will continue to rise in 2015. ment to bolster security at military and and the Taliban. The Human Rights Council will consider the police facilities; Spain is the penholder on Afghanistan report of the High Commissioner for Human • highlight the importance of electoral (including UNAMA), while New Zealand is Rights on the situation in Afghanistan and on the reforms, given the irregularities in last the penholder on the 1988 Taliban Sanctions of human rights in 2014 (A/HRC/28/48) during its year’s presidential elections and the fact Committee. 28th session in March. that parliamentary elections are upcom- ing; and

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Ukraine

Expected Council Action on Mariupol. However, the Council failed to endorsing the 12 February “measures for the As in previous months, the Council is like- adopt the statement because of Russia’s dis- implementation of the Minsk agreements” ly to follow the events in Ukraine closely. agreement with the proposed language. and calling on all parties to implement these At press time no specific meetings were On 26 January, Feltman briefed the measures. In addition, the draft rea"rmed planned but, depending on the develop- Council on the situation in Ukraine follow- resolution 2166 regarding the downing of ments on the ground, it is possible Council ing reports of continuous violations of the flight MH17 and made references to the sov- members may decide to hold briefings or Minsk agreements and the increasing num- ereignty, independence and territorial integ- other types of meetings. ber of civilian casualties. On 31 January, in rity of Ukraine, while not mentioning Crimea an attempt to revive diplomatic e!orts, the and Sevastopol. Key Recent Developments trilateral contact group—comprised of Rus- Just before the vote on resolution 2202, Despite the Minsk agreements of September sia, Ukraine and the OSCE—was sched- Council members issued a press statement 2014 mandating a ceasefire and the 9 Decem- uled to meet with the signatories of the expressing concern over ceasefire violations ber 2014 truce imposed by Ukrainian Presi- Minsk agreements. However, according to and continued fighting in the town of Debalt- dent Petro Poroshenko, the fighting in eastern the OSCE, representatives of Donetsk and seve. The statement also called on all parties Ukraine has continued with greater intensity Lugansk rebels did not appear and the meet- to adhere to the commitment made in Minsk in 2015. On 13 January, after the shelling of ing was cancelled. and allow the OSCE to monitor and verify a passenger bus in Volnovakha, Donetsk, in In February, there was a renewed push by compliance with the Minsk agreements. which 11 civilians were killed and 17 injured, France and Germany for a diplomatic solu- On 18 February, after weeks of intense Council members issued a press statement tion to the crisis in Ukraine. On 5 February, fighting, rebel forces took control of Debalt- condemning the act and calling for an inves- French President François Hollande and seve after Ukrainian troops withdrew from tigation of the incident. German Chancellor Angela Merkel travelled the town. Though small, Debaltseve has In Donetsk, the fighting between the gov- to Kiev, where they met with Poroshenko significant strategic importance because it ernment forces and rebels for the control of and presented him with a peace plan for serves as a railway and highway hub connect- the Donetsk airport has been particularly Ukraine. The following day in Moscow, Hol- ing rebel-held Donetsk and Lugansk. intense. For several months the Ukrainian lande and Merkel met with Russian Presi- At press time, the ceasefire continues to be army held the airport and resisted continuous dent Vladimir Putin to discuss the peace pro- violated throughout eastern Ukraine. attacks by the rebels. The airport fell under posal for Ukraine. rebel control on 21 January. The same day On 12 February, Hollande, Merkel, Poro- Human Rights-Related Developments the Council held its first meeting in 2015 on shenko and Putin met in Minsk, where after In a statement issued on 3 February, High Com- missioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hus- the situation in Ukraine. Under-Secretary- extended negotiations they agreed on the sein urged all sides to halt the dangerous esca- General for Political A!airs Je!rey Feltman “Package of measures for the implementa- briefed, reporting that Ukraine was experi- tion of the Minsk accords”. The main points is proving catastrophic for civilians. Bus stops encing the worst upsurge of violence since of the agreement include a ceasefire start- and public transport, marketplaces, schools and the signing of the Minsk agreement on 5 Sep- ing 15 February, withdrawal of heavy weap- kindergartens, hospitals and residential areas have become battlegrounds in the Donetsk and tember 2014. ons, prisoner release and amnesty for those Luhansk regions in clear breach of international In the deadliest attack in Ukraine since the involved in fighting, as well as a constitu- humanitarian law. There has been indiscriminate downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in tional reform aimed at greater autonomy of shelling of residential areas in both government- which 298 lives were claimed, on 24 Janu- Donetsk and Lugansk. controlled territory and in areas controlled by the ary, 30 people were killed and more than 100 This agreement resembles the September armed groups, said the High Commissioner. He also expressed concern about the implications were injured in a rocket attack on the city of Minsk agreements but leaves out numerous Mariupol. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issues that will have to be addressed in fur- condemned the attack while noting that ther negotiations. Most significantly, the 12 and power cuts and the plight of these civilians appearing to launch rockets indiscriminately February agreement leaves control of the being compounded by government decisions that into civilian areas could constitute a viola- Ukraine-Russia border unresolved, which have resulted in further restrictions on the free- tion of international humanitarian law. After is conditioned on complete political settle- dom of movement and in socio-economic isola- crater analysis, the Organization for Security ment in Donetsk and Lugansk. The Septem- the humanitarian situation untenable for millions and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Special ber Minsk agreements had envisaged that of people. Monitoring Mission reported that rockets the OSCE would take control of the border The statement also highlighted worrying came from rebel-held areas in the Donetsk between Ukraine and Russia. developments in the Autonomous Republic of region. Lithuania, the UK and the US draft- On 17 February, the Council unanimously Crimea, particularly multiple violations of the rights of Crimean Tatars. On 26 January, the ed a press statement condemning the attack adopted the Russian-drafted resolution 2202, premises of ATR in Simferopol, the only television

UN DOCUMENTS ON UKRAINE Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2202 (17 February 2015) endorsed the agreements reached in Minsk on 12 February. S/RES/2166 (21 July Security Council Press Statements SC/11784 (17 February 2015) expressed SC/11733 (13 January 2015) condemned the shelling of a passenger bus in Volnovakha. Security Council Letters S/2014/264 (13 April 2014) was from Russia, requesting urgent consultations on the situation in Ukraine. S/2014/136 (28 February 2014) was from Ukraine, requesting an urgent meeting and citing the situation in Crimea as a threat to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7384 (17 February 2015) was the vote on resolution 2202. S/PV.7368 (26 January 2015) and S/PV.7365 (21 January 2015) were on the situation in Ukraine.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Ukraine (con’t)

channel broadcasting in the Crimean Tatar lan- through its role in the trilateral contact group. members share the view that the solution guage, were raided by armed, masked men in An option for the Council would be to to the crisis does not lie in the Council but unmarked military clothing. On 29 January, the explore possible ways of establishing a polit- rather through other diplomatic avenues that deputy head of the Crimean Tatar Mejlis, Ahtem Ciygoz, was detained by the Russian occupying ical mission and monitoring mechanism for facilitate high-level talks between Russia and authorities. He faces up to ten years in prison for Ukraine which would work closely with oth- Ukraine. However, in the first two months of creating “mass disturbances”. er organisations on the ground, primarily 2015 the Council seems to be more active The Human Rights Council will consider the the OSCE. on the issue. At press time, the Council had report of the Human Rights Mission to Ukraine Another option for the Council would be held three meetings on Ukraine, issued two on the situation in the country, including Crimea, during its 28th session in March (A/HRC/28/64/ to request a briefing by the UN Department press statements and adopted resolution Add.1). of Political A!airs on the latest political devel- 2202 since the beginning of 2015. opments in Ukraine. Despite the adoptions of resolutions 2166 In addition, the Council could consider a and 2202, the Council failed to adopt any res- Key Issues briefing on human rights and the humanitar- olution that would focus on the wider politi- Defining the role the Council could play in ian situation in Ukraine by the O"ce of the cal context of the situation in Ukraine due responding to the crisis in Ukraine remains High Commissioner for Human Rights, given to a rift between Russia and the P3. Russia the key issue, including in what way the that it received its last briefing addressing the tried to introduce three draft resolutions on Council can reinforce the implementation of humanitarian situation in October 2014. the wider political and humanitarian situa- the ceasefire and remaining provisions of the Should the ceasefire collapse and the tion in Ukraine during its presidency of the Minsk agreements. Minsk agreements not be implemented, the Council in June 2014. Due to disagreements, The role of the UN in investigating the Council could consider addressing the situa- these drafts were never voted on. This rift was downing of flight MH17 in accordance with tion in Ukraine through a Chapter VI resolu- also manifested on 17 February when resolu- resolution 2166 remains an ongoing issue for tion by either working with Russia or insist- tion 2202 was adopted. Prior to the vote, the the Council. ing on its obligation to abstain from voting, Council issued a press statement that con- Finally, dealing with the humanitarian sit- in line with article 27(3) of the UN Charter, tained the main elements the P3 and Lithu- uation in Ukraine is an increasingly impor- which requires a party to a dispute to abstain ania had tried to include in the resolution but tant issue for the Council, specifically the from voting. which Russia declined to include as amend- way the UN and its agencies can address the ments during the negotiations. issue in light of the harsh winter conditions Council Dynamics The Council has been deeply divided on and the large number of a!ected civilians in Towards the end of 2014, the Council the issue of Ukraine since the beginning of eastern Ukraine. seemed to be less involved in the situation the crisis in early 2014. Russia will not accept in Ukraine, which led to a gradual decrease any Council outcome that would question Options in the frequency of Council meetings on the legal status of Crimea and Sevastopol, The Council could consider getting more the issue. This trend could be attributed to now de facto part of the Russian Federation, information on the implementation of the Council members’ exhaustion with Ukraine while the P3 and Western countries continue Minsk agreements, requesting a briefing by and the inability to take action due to the to insist on the territorial integrity and sover- the OSCE, which remains the organisation wide rift between permanent members eignty of Ukraine in line with General Assem- with the leading role in Ukraine, especially on the issue. In addition, most Council bly resolution 68/262.

Syria

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments for a period of six weeks. (The same day de In March, Council members expect to receive De Mistura briefed Council members on 17 Mistura met with Assad, the government and their regular monthly briefings on the chemi- February on his e!orts to secure a UN-medi- allied foreign militias launched a new o!en- cal weapons and humanitarian tracks. ated freeze zone for Aleppo to de-escalate sive south of Damascus against mainstream At press time, Special Envoy for Syria Staf- violence and to allow the entry of humani- opposition fighters in Daraa and Al-Nusra fan de Mistura was in Damascus for further tarian aid. He announced that, following his Front in Quneitra.) De Mistura could not discussions on a possible cessation of hostili- 11 February meeting with President Bashar say when such a freeze would go into e!ect, ties in Aleppo. It was unclear whether he would al-Assad, Syria had indicated a willingness reporting that a date would be announced report back to Council members in March. to halt all aerial bombardment over Aleppo from Damascus. In addition, he asked Syria

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2191 (17 December 2014) renewed cross-border humanitarian access. S/RES/2139 (22 February 2014) was on humanitarian access, along with demands regarding human rights and protection of civilians. S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) was on chemical weapons. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7394 (26 February 2015) was on the humanitarian situation. Security Council Letter S/2015/95 (6 February 2015) transmitted the decision of the OPCW decision on chlorine bombs .Secretary-General’s Reports S/2015/124 (19 February 2015) was on the humanitarian situation. S/2015/56 (26 January 2015) was on chemical weapons.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Syria (con’t) to allow a humanitarian surge in the UN- assistance, 7.6 million are internally dis- from Iraq. Hassakeh province is also where identified district of Salah al-Din in Aleppo. placed, 4.8 million are in hard-to-reach areas ISIS has recently abducted hundreds of On the same day of de Mistura’s briefing, and 212,000 are besieged, largely by govern- Assyrian Christians. government forces launched a surprise o!en- ment forces. The death toll in Syria is conser- On 17 February, the US and Turkey said sive north of Aleppo near a strategic road that vatively estimated at 220,000 people. they had agreed in principle to a train-and- is the opposition forces’ last remaining sup- Kang reported that there had been 66 equip program for moderate Syrian oppo- ply line from Turkey—setting the stage for a cross-border aid deliveries but cross-line sition fighters to confront ISIS, reflecting government siege of Aleppo. De Mistura said deliveries within Syria remain di"cult. She Washington’s focus on ISIS versus Ankara’s he feared it was an attempt to solidify gains reported on the intensified clashes in east- priority of toppling Assad. before the freeze went into e!ect and that he ern Ghouta, south of Damascus, during the was returning to Damascus to bring the gov- reporting period—echoing media reports of Sanctions-Related Developments ernment and opposition into agreement on a government o!ensive there that left hun- On 4 February, the 1737 Iran Sanctions Commit- tee reviewed a list of pending issues that includes a freeze plan. Some opposition groups have dreds dead over the course of ten days. Kang a US proposal to designate Jaysh Al-Shabi, a condemned de Mistura’s proposals as favour- also identified five areas that require urgent pro-government Syrian militia that has allegedly able to the government. At press time, opposi- progress: lifting the siege on 212,000 people, received arms from Iran. Council members’ posi- tion groups had recaptured territory north of ensuring medical and surgical supplies reach tions remained unchanged and no progress was Aleppo from the government. all parts of the country, ending the practice made. On 20 February, Council members held a of denying key services as a weapon of war, closed Arria-formula meeting with the Human rebuilding the education system and ending Key Issues Rights Council’s Commission of Inquiry on relentless and indiscriminate attacks, includ- The key issue for the Council—as this vio- Syria. The Commission said that the inability ing the use of barrel bombs. lent civil war heads into its fifth year—is to of the Council to refer Syria to the ICC has Guterres briefed on the plight of the 3.8 find ways to show greater leadership, partic- contributed to the environment of impunity million refugees who have fled Syria and the ularly in supporting a cessation of violence in which the Syrian government operates. In importance of supporting the funding needs and resuscitating e!orts for a political solu- this context, the commissioners said they were of the UN’s 2015 Syria response plan at the tion. Regarding the immediacy of a potential considering whether to publicly release a list of Kuwait Donor Conference in March. He also Aleppo freeze, an issue for Council members alleged perpetrators when the Human Rights highlighted the needs of Syria’s neighbouring will be whether it is implemented in line with Council considers their latest report on 17 countries where Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey international humanitarian law as govern- March (A/HRC/28/69). The report noted that have restricted the refugee influx due to con- ment forces seem poised to besiege the city. keeping the names confidential would only cerns about the destabilising impact on their In light of the Commission of Inquiry’s reinforce the impunity the Commission was own security and economic situations. pending decision on whether to publicise a mandated to combat. (In the past, the Com- Earlier in the month, on 6 February, the list of alleged perpetrators, the pressure for mission has always transmitted a confidential UN High Representative for Disarmament the Council to respond to the widespread list of alleged perpetrators to the High Com- A!airs, Angela Kane, briefed on the chemical impunity in Syria may re-emerge. missioner for Human Rights.) weapons track. The major focus of these con- Ongoing issues include when to follow-up The Commission’s investigations have sultations was the 4 February decision of the the violations of resolutions 2139 and 2191 reinforced that the main causes of civilian Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemi- on the humanitarian situation and 2118 on casualties are due to deliberate targeting of cal Weapons (OPCW) that created a report- the destruction of chemical weapons—in par- civilians, indiscriminate attacks, attacks on ing line back to the Council on the reports of ticular aerial bombardment and the use of protected objects—such as schools, hospitals the OPCW’s fact-finding mission on the use chlorine bombs. and mosques—and the punitive imposition of chlorine bombs. (These reports conclud- of sieges and blockades. The scale of govern- ed that chlorine has been used as a weapon Options ment violations continues to outpace that of and had been repeatedly delivered in barrel If an Aleppo freeze is successfully negotiated opposition and extremist groups with wide- bombs dropped from helicopters. While the Council members could issue a statement spread reports of aerial bombardment, deaths, report does not attribute blame, only the gov- supporting the plan, calling for it to be scru- sexual violence and torture in government ernment has aerial capacity and only rebel- pulously implemented in adherence to inter- detention centres and extra-judicial killings, held areas were targeted.) national humanitarian law and set out expec- beatings and enforced disappearances. Regarding the US-led coalition against the tations for how the freeze could be monitored On 26 February, Assistant Secretary- Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), Jor- and expanded to other areas. General for Humanitarian A!airs Kyung- dan carried out dozens of airstrikes in Febru- The Council is likely to give de Mistura wha Kang and High Commissioner for Ref- ary against ISIS targets in Raqqa in response space to achieve a freeze in Aleppo but could ugees António Guterres briefed the Council to the murder by immolation of a Jordanian request more regular briefings from the Spe- on the devastating humanitarian situation. pilot. Further strikes were carried out in Has- cial Envoy, including through video-telecon- Those requiring humanitarian assistance in sakeh province in support of Kurdish troops ference from Damascus, in order to follow Syria number 12.2 million. Of those needing attempting to cut o! an ISIS supply route developments more closely.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Syria (con’t)

However, if his e!orts fail to gain trac- to the government remains a deterrent to require everyone putting aside their precon- tion, options for Council members who are such attempts. ditions for launching talks. concerned that elements of resolution 2139, Aside from rare moments of consensus On the accountability track, the Commis- such as demands regarding human rights and that allowed for the adoption of humanitar- sion of Inquiry’s list of alleged perpetrators is a protection of civilians, are being flagrantly ian-focused resolutions, counter-terrorism is sensitive issue given the gap between Russia’s ignored is to follow-up the recommendations the only other area where the Council has a support of the government and the view of a of the Commission of Inquiry to: degree of unanimity of purpose on Syria, as significant number of other Council members • invite the Commission or the High Com- demonstrated by the adoption of resolution that the regime has committed the overwhelm- missioner for Human Rights to give peri- 2199 on 12 February which addressed the ing majority of violations. Council members odic briefings; funding of ISIS and Al-Nusra via illegal oil speculate that such a list might include Assad. • attempt to seek accountability through an exports, tra"c of cultural heritage, ransom In December 2013, then High Commissioner international justice mechanism, either payments and external donations. for Human Rights Navi Pillay said that the through an ICC referral or the creation of On the political track, overall Council Commission had produced massive evidence an ad hoc tribunal; and members see value in de Mistura’s incremen- of war crimes and crimes against humanity • follow through on previous threats to tal approach given the inability of previous and indicated responsibility at the highest lev- adopt targeted measures against persons envoys to overcome the government’s intran- el of government, including the head of state. and groups credibly implicated in egre- sigence to a negotiated political settlement. On the chemical weapons track, the US gious violations. Russia is fully supportive of freeze zones. and Russia, in their capacity as members An option, albeit unlikely, for Coun- Other Council members had initially been of the OPCW Executive Council, reached cil members who are concerned about the wary about whether a freeze zone would be agreement on 4 February regarding the issue government’s use of chlorine bombs would anything more than the opposition’s agree- of chlorine bombs. Nevertheless, the agree- be to put forward a resolution (avoiding the ment to surrender as the result of the gov- ment reached at The Hague did not transfer consensus requirement of a press or presi- ernment’s siege and starvation tactics. How- to New York and deep divisions remain with- dential statement) determining that Syria has ever, this worry seems to have subsided, not in the Council. At the 6 February chemical breached resolution 2118. In addition, given because of a new confidence in the Syrian weapons consultations, Russia o!ered a long that chlorine is delivered in barrel bombs, regime which, at press time, was actively rebuttal against the findings of the OPCW such an outcome could be an opportunity to attempting to besiege Aleppo. Rather, it rep- fact-finding mission. address the broader and more pervasive issue resents a tacit acknowledgement by Coun- France is the penholder on Syria overall, of indiscriminate aerial bombardment. cil members of two things. First, no one has though the last text it put forward was the been able to devise a better alternative to the vetoed ICC referral in May 2014. Jordan, Council Dynamics freeze proposal. And second, since the ISIS New Zealand and Spain lead on humanitar- Despite overwhelming indications that reso- lightening o!ensive in June in Iraq, there has ian issues. In practice, however, most texts lutions 2118 and 2139 have been continu- been a subtle shift in the US and UN position need to be agreed between Russia and the US ally breached, it is unclear when Council vis-à-vis the Assad regime. While the US still prior to agreement by the broader Council. members may push for follow-up measures condemns the regime, such statements no Council members France, Jordan, Lithua- against the Syrian regime or other actors on longer include the standard US tagline that nia, New Zealand, Spain, the UK and the US the ground, such as targeted sanctions or Assad must go. Meanwhile, the most recent are part of the anti-ISIS coalition—though another go at an ICC referral. The assump- Secretary-General’s report on the humani- not all directly participate in air strikes. tion that Russia would veto any e!ort specific tarian situation said a political solution will

UNDOF (Golan Heights)

Expected Council Action monitor the ceasefire between Israel and calm for most of its life—has significantly In late March, the Department of Peacekeep- Syria. Its current mandate expires on 30 June. altered how it carries out its mandate. ing Operations (DPKO) will brief Council The Council adopted resolution 2192 on 18 members in consultations on the UN Disen- Key Recent Developments December 2014 renewing the UNDOF man- gagement Observer Force (UNDOF). A report Due to the escalating spillover of the Syrian date for six months. It was the first resolution on the mission’s activities is due on 18 March. civil war into UNDOF’s area of operations, adopted following the relocation of the major- UNDOF was established in 1974 to the mission—which has experienced relative ity of UNDOF peacekeepers on 15 September

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF Security Council Resolution S/RES/2192 (18 December 2014) renewed UNDOF for six months. Security Council Letter S/2015/65 (28 January 2015) was from Israel regarding a rocket attack from Syria. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/859 (1 December 2014) was the most recent UNDOF report. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS (as of 31 January 2015) Force Commander: Major General Purna Chandra Thapa (Nepal) Size of Mission: 930 troops Troop Contributors: Fiji, India, Ireland, Nepal and the Netherlands

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 UNDOF (Golan Heights) (con’t)

2014 from the Bravo (Syrian) side to the Alpha goals that have little to do with an aggressive especially di"cult challenge to regional secu- (Israeli) side of the area of operations after posture towards Israel. The first is to assist rity and the 1974 disengagement agreement. the Al-Qaida a"liated Al-Nusra Front over- the Syrian government in retaking the restive ran Syrian government forces last August in areas south of Damascus from mainstream Options Quneitra—a Syrian district close to the Israeli- opposition fighters in Darra and from Al- UNDOF was established as a Syria-based occupied Golan. During this increase in hostili- Nusra in Quneitra, as demonstrated in an 11 mission and how it operates is subject to ties, Al-Nusra detained 117 peacekeepers, all February o!ensive by government and Hez- the 1974 disengagement agreement and any of whom later escaped safely or were released. bollah forces. Second, Hezbollah suspects changes require agreement by Israel and Syr- Some peacekeepers are still deployed on the Israel of aiding Al-Nusra in the south. For ia. The majority of personnel are now based Syrian side at Mt. Hermon and at two other more than a year, UNDOF has observed the on the Alpha (Israeli) side which has restrict- positions that are extremely close to the Israeli transfer of people and cargo trucks across the ed the mission’s mobility and operational side of the armistice line. The UNDOF com- ceasefire line as well as Israeli forces inter- capacity. DPKO is in active conversations mand is now headquartered in Damascus. acting with members of armed groups. Israel with both parties on ways it can continue its The upcoming UNDOF report is expect- characterises these transfers and interactions observation tasks. An option for the Council ed to include information on the 18 Janu- as humanitarian in nature. Nevertheless, could be to adopt a statement: ary Israeli airstrike that targeted two vehicles Hezbollah wants to secure the Golan against • supporting DPKO’s e!orts; in Quneitra. (The report will not attribute any perceived cooperation between Israel and • reiterating the need for all parties to exer- responsibility but will describe how UNDOF Al-Nusra and avoid any possible Al-Nusra cise restraint; observed two drones flying from the Alpha infiltration into Hezbollah’s stronghold in • urging Israel and Syria to allow the use of side that crossed the ceasefire line and how, neighbouring southern Lebanon. new technologies so UNDOF could bet- several minutes after the drones disappeared Mt. Hermon straddles this border area ter fulfil its mandate in the current chal- from sight, it observed smoke and the drones between Syria and Lebanon, and UNDOF lenging security environment (both parties returning to the Alpha side.) has observed increased movements between have been reluctant to agree to this); and The strike killed an Iranian general and six Lebanon and the Golan since the Syrian crisis • urging Israel to allow UNDOF to establish senior fighters from Hezbollah, the Tehran- began. Mt. Hermon’s location makes it a stra- more positions west of the ceasefire line on backed Lebanese militia. This incident was tegic position requiring a sustained UNDOF the Alpha side, given the mission’s limited unlike previous Israeli airstrikes in Syria that presence. If UNDOF were to abandon it, there mobility there. destroyed Hezbollah weaponry en route to would be unimpeded access across the border. Lebanon from Iran. It seems this time the tar- Council Dynamics get was Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Key Issues Council members are concerned about the Guard General Mohammed Allahdadi and The spillover of the Syrian crisis into UND- increasing clashes in the area of operations, not a weapons convoy, and led to retaliato- OF’s area of operations and escalating cease- both in number and intensity, as well as the ry attacks between Israel and Hezbollah in fire violations will be of primary concern to tension between Israel and Syria along the southern Syria and in southern Lebanon. the Council. armistice line, which has been tremendously On 27 January, rockets from a Syrian mili- Given the deteriorating security situation exacerbated by the overt presence of Hez- tary position were launched into the Israe- in the Golan, the full return of UNDOF to bollah and senior members of Iran’s Revo- li-occupied Golan, and Israel returned fire the Syrian side seems unlikely in the foresee- lutionary Guards. the next day. Israel said that it will exercise able future, significantly constraining the mis- The Council has always generally agreed self-defence when faced with the Iran-Syria- sion’s ability to carry out its monitoring tasks. that UNDOF contributes to stability in the Hezbollah threat. In that respect, there are two key issues for region in the absence of a peace agreement On 28 January, two Israeli soldiers and the Council: between Israel and Syria. However, its liai- a Spanish peacekeeper serving in the UN • whether new technologies, such as son function is particularly important now in Interim Force in Lebanon were killed as Hez- unmanned, unarmed aerial vehicles or order to avoid further negative security impli- bollah traded fire with Israel in the Sheba’a satellite imagery, should be used to carry cations for the region. For that reason, most Farms area (a disputed area between Syria out observation tasks; and Council members are keen to maintain good and Lebanon that is occupied by Israel). • whether UNDOF should be allowed more relationships with troop-contributing coun- These attacks were apparently related to the mobility for its patrolling tasks on the tries to ensure UNDOF’s ability to operate, incidents in the adjacent Golan Heights. (See Israeli side of the ceasefire line. even in its currently constrained configuration. the Lebanon brief in this Monthly Forecast Regarding risk mitigation, an issue is how Though the US is the penholder on the for further details.) the safety of remaining peacekeepers on the Golan Heights, resolutions renewing UND- On 30 January, the head of Hezbol- Syrian side of the ceasefire line will be guaran- OF have been jointly authored with Russia lah, Hassan Nasrallah, said that the Golan teed. Mt. Hermon is strategically important since June 2012, suggesting consensus on and south Lebanon were now a single front for Israel, and if there were no UNDOF secu- an aspect of the Syria file that is otherwise against Israel. However, other analysts peg rity presence there, Israel might feel compelled defined by highly divisive P5 dynamics. Hezbollah’s presence in the Golan to strategic to man the position itself. This would be an

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Haiti

Expected Council Action When the Council delegation arrived in agreement on a framework for free, fair and In March the Security Council is due to hold Port-au-Prince on 23 January, the members inclusive elections as soon as possible. She its semi-annual debate on Haiti, with a brief- of the new CEP had just been sworn in. This also noted that members had been encour- ing by the Special Representative and head followed the 16 January installation of Evans aged by Martelly’s commitment to use his of mission, Sandra Honoré. The Council is Paul, a long-term moderate opposition leader executive authority to ensure the continu- expecting a report from the Secretary-Gen- and former Port-au-Prince mayor, as prime ity of the state and to organise elections, but eral on the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti minister and the formation on 19 January of a she stressed the importance of maintaining (MINUSTAH) in early March. new cabinet comprising 36 ministers. Coun- political checks and balances. Barros high- MINUSTAH’s mandate expires on 15 cil members met with Martelly, Paul and oth- lighted among other things how the trip had October. er government o"cials along with the newly provided Council members an opportunity appointed members of the CEP and repre- to assess ongoing e!orts to strengthen the Key Recent Developments sentatives of the opposition and civil society, police. While noting that progress had been On 23-25 January, the Council sent a visit- including women’s groups. achieved, he also underlined that promoting ing mission to Haiti co-led by Ambassadors The Council mission also aimed to assess greater responsibility for the maintenance of Samantha Power (US) and Cristián Barros ongoing e!orts to strengthen the Haitian stability and security by national authorities (Chile). The visit took place during an acute National Police and the authorities’ capacity was a remaining challenge. With regard to the political crisis resulting from the failure to to maintain stability and security throughout planned drawdown of MINUSTAH, Barros hold timely elections, with demonstrations the country, as well as implementation of noted that Council members had an oppor- continuing against the government of Presi- resolution 2180. This resolution, which was tunity “to express their di!erent views” in the dent Michel Martelly. adopted on 14 October 2014 and extended meeting with the force commander. Despite the urging of the international MINUSTAH’s mandate for another year, Demonstrations against the government community, Haitian politicians were unable authorised a reduction in the mission’s mil- continued in February, and there were also to overcome their di!erences and make the itary component from 5,021 personnel to several strikes, including a two-day gen- necessary compromises for elections to take 2,370 by June 2015. (The police contingent eral strike on 9 and 10 February. Principal place before the expiry on 12 January of the remained unchanged at 2,601.) At the same demands focused on the lowering of gas pric- terms of all the members of the Chamber of time, it called on the Secretary-General to es and the resignation of both Martelly and Deputies and a second third of the senators. ensure that the reductions would only take Evans. It was not clear how widespread the (The terms of the first third expired in Janu- place after the submission of his upcom- protests were (some reports suggested dem- ary 2012.) In a final attempt to avoid the dis- ing March report to the Council and also onstrators were being paid to participate), but solution of parliament, Martelly announced to alert the Council in this report of any they appeared to be largely peaceful. on 11 January that he had reached a deal “major changes” in the situation. Further- On 10 February, the CEP presented a ten- with the opposition (later referred to as the more, the Council emphasised that if con- tative electoral calendar with three electoral Kinam accord) involving the appointment ditions changed, it would adapt MINUS- rounds between July and October 2015–two of a new Conseil Electoral Provisoire (CEP) TAH’s mandate and force levels to safeguard legislative and one presidential—followed by and adoption by parliament, in an extraor- progress already made towards security and local elections and the second round of presi- dinary session, of an amended electoral law stability in Haiti. dential elections in January 2016. that would extend the deputies’ terms until To assess progress in strengthening the 24 April and senators’ terms until 9 Septem- police, the Council delegation visited the Human Rights-Related Developments ber. The parliament failed to reach the neces- Haitian National Police Academy in Port- At press time, the independent expert on the human rights situation in Haiti, Gustavo Gallón, sary quorum to hold a meeting before the 12 au-Prince. The Council also travelled to the was to visit the country from 22 February to 3 January deadline, however, thus leading to its MINUSTAH base in Cap-Haïtien where the March to evaluate the human rights situation, in dissolution and Martelly’s ruling by decree. force commander, Lieutenant General Jose particular civil and political rights, as a follow-up According to the terms of reference for Luiz Jaborandy Jr. (Brazil), briefed the del- the Council mission, a key objective was to egation on the activities of the military com- key areas: social inequality, detained persons, the rule of law, human rights violations committed “underscore the importance of inclusiveness ponent of MINUSTAH and the implications in the past and the impact of natural disasters and constructiveness” to political stability of the planned drawdown. on human rights. The Human Rights Council will and development and to “urge Haiti’s politi- On 29 January, Power and Barros briefed consider Gallón’s report during its 28th session cal actors to work cooperatively and without the Council on the trip. Power focused on in March. further delays to ensure the holding of free, the political crisis and said the key message fair, inclusive, and transparent legislative, delivered by Council members was that all Key Issues partial senatorial, municipal and local elec- sides must redouble their e!orts to engage A key issue for the Council is whether tions” in accordance with Haiti’s constitution. in a constructive dialogue and come to an recent developments in Haiti have impacted

UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2180 (14 October 2014) renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate until 15 October 2015. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/617 (29 August 2014) was the most recent MINUSTAH report. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7372 S/PV.7277 (14 October 2014) was the adoption of resolution 2180 with explanations of vote by several Council members. Security Council Letter S/2015/40 (19 January 2015) were the terms of reference for the Council visiting mission to Haiti.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Haiti (con’t) conditions on the ground in such a way that Haiti, urge politicians to resolve their dif- during the current mandate period, hence the the decision authorising the drawdown of ferences and call for fair, just and transpar- compromise provision in the resolution call- MINUSTAH beginning in March needs ent elections to be held as soon as possible. ing for the drawdown not to start until March. to be revisited. In particular, an important Taking no action seems to be the most During the recent visiting mission to Hai- question is whether the timing is right for likely option. ti, Latin American countries, including both a drawdown in light of the recent political Council members and some troop-contrib- unrest, continuing uncertainty surrounding Council and Wider Dynamics uting countries, appeared still to have some the elections and the current capacity of the It seems that Council members are now less concerns about the planned reduction of Haitian police. divided with regard to the planned reconfigu- MINUSTAH’s military contingent, given A further key issue is whether the Council ration of MINUSTAH than at the time of current security challenges and continu- can do more to encourage Haitian political the adoption of resolution 2180. Although ing uncertainties surrounding the elections. leaders to reach consensus on a framework the resolution was adopted by consensus, However, at press time there were no indica- that will allow elections to be held this year. Latin American members of the Council tions that any Council member would push only reluctantly supported it, as was evi- for a reopening of the drawdown decision. Options dent in their explanations of vote. Argentina, Most Council members seem confident that Main options for the Council include: an elected member at the time, and Chile the mission will be able to handle the situ- • adopting a resolution requesting the Sec- expressed regret that they had not been in a ation with a reduced military presence. In retary-General to delay the drawdown position to co-sponsor the resolution, as their particular they note that most of the current authorised in resolution 2180; or concerns about the accelerated drawdown security challenges are handled by the police. • adopting a presidential statement as a had not been fully taken into account. While (There is no disagreement on the continued follow-up to the recent visiting mission to most Council members supported the Sec- need for UN police.) It is expected that the reiterate the Council’s concern about the retary-General’s proposal for the drawdown Secretary-General’s report will also con- electoral crisis and its impact on the sta- to start right away, Argentina and Chile ini- clude that there is no reason to change the bility and socio-economic development of tially wanted to keep troop levels unchanged drawdown plan.

Children and Armed Conflict

Expected Council Action the chair of the Working Group for Children toll on children as a result of the conflict in In late March the Council will hold an open and Armed Conflict.) Gaza. Many member states also focused on debate on children and armed conflict. Secre- emergent threats, such as ISIS and Boko tary-General Ban Ki-moon, will brief, along Key Recent Developments Haram and the situations in Syria and Gaza. with representatives from UNICEF and the The last debate on children and armed con- A joint initiative—Children, Not Sol- NGO community. Other actors from the field, flict was held on 8 September 2014. The diers—was launched in March 2014 by the including possibly a child victim of a non- report of the Secretary-General was present- O"ce of the Special Representative for Chil- state armed group, may also participate. ed by Special Representative for Children dren and Armed Conflict and UNICEF and The open debate is expected to focus on and Armed Conflict Leila Zerrougui with aimed to end and prevent recruitment and child victims of non-state armed groups. A briefings by Deputy Executive Director of use of children by government armed forc- concept note will be circulated by France, UNICEF Yoka Brandt and Under-Secretary- es in conflicts by 2016. At the start of the which as president of the Council in March General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé campaign, six of the eight situations listed in has chosen to highlight this issue. The con- Ladsous. Forest Whitaker, UNESCO’s Spe- the annexes of the Secretary-General’s 2014 cept paper is expected to outline the tools cial Envoy for Peace and Reconciliation, and report for violations against children in situ- available to the Council and the types of pres- Sandra Uwiringiyimana, a victim of the con- ations of armed conflict had signed action sure that could be exerted on di!erent non- flict in the Democratic Republic of the Con- plans to end recruitment of children. In May state armed groups. go, also spoke. In presenting the Secretary- 2014, Yemen signed an action plan while the At press time, no formal outcome was General’s 2014 report on children and armed UN continues to be in active dialogue with expected but a summary of the main points conflict, Zerrougui highlighted the impact of South Sudan. There have been some signs of of the debate may be circulated and used in activities of groups such as the Islamic State progress in the implementation of the action preparing another debate expected in June of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq and Boko plans since the start of the campaign. The during Malaysia’s presidency. (Malaysia is Haram in Nigeria on children, as well as the Chadian armed forces were delisted from

UN DOCUMENTS ON CHILDREN AND ARMED CONFLICT Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7259 (8 September 2014) was the most recent open debate. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/339 S/AC.51/2014/3 (18 September 2014) was the DRC conclusions. S/AC.51/2014/4 (26 (November 2014) was the Syria conclusions. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCE Protect Schools and Hospitals, Guidance Note on Resolution 1998, UNICEF, May 2014

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Children and Armed Conflict (con’t) the Secretary-General’s 2014 report annex- Key Issues UN due-diligence process. es. In early August the Afghan government A key issue is engaging with non-state armed Finally, an issue is how to take forward any endorsed a road map towards compliance groups victimising children. A related issue is concrete recommendations from this debate with its action plan. In Myanmar, govern- being able to exert pressure on such groups to the June debate. ment forces released 91 children and the gov- to stop violations against children. ernment promised to review its action plan A closely connected issue is the reluctance Options and develop a work plan. The government of of governments to allow contact between An option is to request a report from the South Sudan recommitted to implementing non-state armed groups and the UN and how Secretary-General identifying non-state its action plan and endorsed a work plan for to overcome this. Focusing on groups that are armed groups that might be more amenable ending grave violations against children. part of an ongoing peace process like in the to complying with international law related The 2014 Secretary-General’s report Central African Republic and Mali may be a to children and armed conflict, for example listed 59 parties in the Secretary-General’s possible avenue. non-state armed groups seeking political annexes, 51 of which were non-state armed An emerging issue is how to deal with legitimacy. Given the complexity of the non- groups. Over the years eleven non-state extremist groups such as Boko Haram and state armed groups, a better understanding armed groups have signed action plans, lead- ISIS, which do not operate in just one coun- of these groups is needed to develop appro- ing to six being delisted following implemen- try, are di"cult to approach and are unlikely priate strategies for persuading them to stop tation of the action plans. However, no action to respond to the usual forms of pressure. A violations against children in situations of plans have been signed with non-state armed related issue is how to ensure that military armed conflict. groups since 2009. strikes against extremist groups take into One option is to create, together with the account protection of children. relevant governments, incentives to persuade Developments in the Working Group on A related issue is ensuring child protec- non-state armed groups that potentially could tion is mainstreamed into the Council’s the- be listed in the Secretary-General’s annexes Members of the Working Group travelled to the matic work on counter-terrorism and coun- to stop violations in order to not get listed. Democratic Republic of Congo from 30 Novem- ber to 4 December 2014, where they visited try-specific situations where these terrorist An option in dealing with terrorist non- Kinshasa and Goma. The delegation was led by groups operate. state armed groups is to request the UN Luxembourg, the then-chair of the Working Group, Also an issue is the increasing di"culty in missions in countries where these groups and included eight other member states. The aim monitoring and reporting in situations in the are operating to pay particular attention to of the visit was to acknowledge progress made Secretary-General’s annexes that have dete- the conditions that may allow for violations DRC, get a better understanding of the situation riorated rapidly in the last year such as Iraq, against children and to work with the relevant on the ground and reinforce the Working Group’s Libya and Yemen. This may be a problem for governments to provide a safer environment recommendations to the DRC government and future reports on these situations. for children. other parties contained in its 18 September A continuing issue is the reluctance of Despite the di"culties in the past, sanc- 2014 conclusions on the situation of children some members to use sanctions to pressure tions continue to be a tool for putting pres- the government, the members of the delegation persistent perpetrators, i.e., groups that have sure on armed groups that are sensitive to welcomed progress in relation to recruitment of been in the Secretary-General’s annexes for arms, financial or travel restrictions. Options children but more progress was needed to stop more than five years. A connected issue is related to listing parties for situations not sexual violence. In 2014, the Working Group also ensuring all relevant sanctions committees on the Council’s agenda (Colombia, Philip- adopted conclusions on the situation of armed include all four violations that could trigger pines and Nigeria), as well as situations with - plex negotiations, as well as conclusions on Mali a listing in the Secretary-General’s annexes no sanctions committee, include creating a in July and the Philippines in January. In February, (recruitment of children, killing and maim- general sanctions committee or having the the Working Group began discussing the Secre- ing, sexual violence and attacks on and use Working Group act as a sanctions committee. tary-General’s report on children and armed con- of schools and hospitals). Also an issue is how to ensure inclusion of Council Dynamics more substantive references to attacks on and The issue of non-state armed groups has been Human Rights-Related Developments military use of schools and hospitals in rel- a controversial one for Council members, The Human Rights Council will consider Zer- evant documents on country-specific issues particularly in relation to how to approach rougui’s annual report, during its 28th session on the Council’s agenda. (This is the most them. A fundamental shift in some mem- in March (A/HRC/28/54). It is also scheduled to hold an interactive dialogue with Zerrougui and recently added violation that could trigger a bers’ positions would be needed in order to the Special Representative of the Secretary- listing in the Secretary-General’s annexes.) see much movement on this issue. However, General on Violence against Children, Marta San- A related issue is encouraging the parties on given the number of non-state armed groups tos Pais. This coincides with the Human Rights the list for this violation to sign action plans. listed in the Secretary-General’s annexes and Council’s annual full-day meeting on the rights of A continuing issue is ensuring that armed lack of progress in getting them to sign an the child. forces listed in the Secretary-General’s annex- action plan, some members see this as an es wanting to serve as peacekeepers, are prop- issue worth focusing on again. erly screened and go through the appropriate Some members may see this debate as

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Children and Armed Conflict (con’t) an opportunity to tackle the highly relevant proposals that could be taken up during their debate, some members may want to more emerging threat of violent extremism and proposed debate in June. Keeping in mind fully explore the issue of non-state armed its impact on children. Malaysia might be the possibility of adding abductions as a vio- groups who have been abducting children. keen to ensure that there are some concrete lation that could lead to listing during that

Lebanon

Expected Council Action announced that an independent panel of would soon produce a press statement. In his In March, newly appointed Special Coor- inquiry was being appointed to establish the comments to the media, Spanish Ambassa- dinator for Lebanon Sigrid Kaag will brief sequence of events, determine culpability and dor Román Oyarzun told reporters that the Council members in consultations on the potentially demand financial compensation. lethal fire was “because of the escalation of Secretary-General’s report on the implemen- The exchange of fire followed an attack the violence and it came from the Israeli side”. tation of resolution 1701, which called for a the day before, in which Israel struck Syrian Two days later, France, the penholder, cir- cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah army posts following rocket attacks from the culated a press statement on the death of the and Israel in 2006. Kaag’s briefing is likely to Syrian Golan Heights. Iranian o"cials said peacekeeper, but there was insurmountable include an update on investigations into the those attacks were in retaliation for the 18 disagreement among Council members as to 28 January death of a peacekeeper serving in January air strike in the Golan Heights, wide- how to characterise the context in which the the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). ly believed to have been conducted by Israel, peacekeeper was killed and apportion blame UNIFIL’s mandate expires on 31 August. that killed six Hezbollah fighters and Iranian for the incident. After a week of negotiations Revolutionary Guard General Mohammed and the threat of continuing deadlock on Key Recent Developments Allahdadi. (For futher details please see the the issue, Council members on 4 February On 28 January, two Israeli soldiers and a Golan Heights brief in this Monthly Forecast.) agreed to a press statement that merely “con- Spanish peacekeeper—Lance Corporal Fran- Lebanon’s prime minister said Lebanon is demned in the strongest terms” the killing of cisco Javier Soria Toledo—were killed and committed to abiding by resolution 1701 and a UNIFIL peacekeeper that “occurred in the seven Israeli soldiers were wounded as Hez- criticised Israel for causing an escalation in context of fire exchanges along the Blue Line bollah militants traded fire with Israeli forces. tensions. On 1 February, Israeli Prime Minis- on 28 January 2015”. Hezbollah struck Israeli forces with anti-tank ter Benjamin Netanyahu accused UN peace- In mid-February, Kaag made her first o"- missile fire, to which Israel responded by fir- keepers of failing to report on the smuggling cial visit to south Lebanon since assuming ing shells into southern Lebanon. During the of weapons into southern Lebanon. (UNIFIL the role on 1 December 2014. On 17 Febru- incident, UNIFIL had observed six rockets is mandated to assist Lebanon in securing its ary, she met with members of parliament in launched towards Israel from the vicinity of borders to prevent the entry of arms without the southern city of Tyre and, the following Wazzani north of Maysat in the UNIFIL area the government’s consent, but does not have day, with former Prime Minister Saad Hariri of operations. a specific monitoring task.) to discuss the presidential election stalemate, Kaag strongly urged all parties to abide by On the day of the incident, Assistant the Syrian refugee crisis and other develop- their obligations under resolution 1701. UNI- Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- ments in the country and region. FIL Force Commander Major General Luci- tions Edmond Mulet briefed Council mem- The war in Syria continues to embroil ano Portolano was in immediate contact with bers in consultations. Following the meet- Lebanese elements and have damaging social the parties to help control the situation and ing, Council president in January, Cristián and political e!ects on Lebanon. On 17 Feb- prevent further escalation. Portolano strongly Barros (Chile), read elements to the press ruary, Hezbollah aided Syrian government condemned this serious violation of resolu- in which Council members condemned the forces in capturing several villages near Alep- tion 1701. UNIFIL bolstered its presence by death of the Spanish UNIFIL peacekeeper po in heavy fighting that left more than 100 increasing ground patrols and launched an that occurred in the context of an exchange dead on both sides. On 3 February, Hezbol- investigation into the facts and circumstanc- of fire along the Blue Line. When reporters lah and, in a separate operation, the Lebanese es surrounding the event. Israel and Spain asked if there had been any discussion on Armed Forces (LAF), both attacked militant announced on 30 January that they had agreed whether the fire that killed the peacekeeper hideouts along the Syrian-Lebanese border, to carry out their own joint investigation into came from the Israeli side or from Hezbol- on the outskirts of the eastern town of Nahleh the death of the peacekeeper. On 4 Febru- lah, Barros said there had been a long dis- in Baalbek. Lebanese security sources say ary, UN peacekeeping head Hervé Ladsous cussion about the issue and that the Council that militants had reinforced their positions

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2172 (26 August 2014) extended the mandate of UNIFIL for one year. S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias and extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2014/10 Syria. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/784 (5 November 2014) was the latest 1701 report. Security Council Press Statements SC/11766 (4 February 2015) condemned the killing of a UNIFIL peacekeeper. SC/11731 (11 January 2015) expressed outrage at a terrorist attack in Tripoli for which Al-Nusra Front claimed responsibility. Security Council Letters S/2014/949 (23 December 2014) and S/2014/950 (26 December 2014) was an exchange of letters to extend the mandate of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon for a further three years on 1 March.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Lebanon (con’t) on the outskirts of the Lebanese border town Ban Ki-moon sent a letter to the Council Lebanon. Such a resolution could reiterate after having engaged in clashes with Hezbol- announcing his intention to extend the man- the need for calm along the Blue Line. Given lah a week earlier. date of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon— the lack of progress towards electing a presi- In a speech on 16 February, Hezbollah’s mandated to try those accused of carrying dent, the resolution could also encourage the chief, Hassan Nasrallah, revealed for the first out the February 2005 attack that killed 22 election to take place in an expeditious man- time that, in addition to fighting in Syria, people, including former Prime Minister ner in order to maintain stability. It could also Hezbollah is also engaged in combat in Iraq, Rafiq Hariri—for a further three years on reiterate support for the government of Leba- saying that the Shi’a group has a “limited 1 March. non, including in its fight against terrorism, presence because of the sensitive phase that and stress the need for all Lebanese parties Iraq is going through”. Key Issues to abide by its policy of dissociation from the On 11 January, Council members issued a The key issue for the Council is the need to Syrian conflict, outlined in the Baabda Dec- press statement expressing outrage at a terror- prevent the recurrence or escalation of hos- laration of June 2012. ist attack carried out a day earlier in Tripoli for tilities between Israel and Lebanon. which Al-Nusra Front claimed responsibility. A related issue is the weaponry that is in Council Dynamics On 8 February, France announced that the hands of Hezbollah and other non-state There is consensus in the Council that UNI- it would begin delivering within two months actors, which continues to restrict the ability FIL contributes to stability between Israel weapons purchased with a $3 billion grant of the state to exercise full authority over its and Lebanon and has become even more cru- from Saudi Arabia to the LAF. When mak- territory, poses a threat to Lebanon’s sover- cial in the context of the ongoing Syrian crisis. ing the announcement during a meeting with eignty and stability and contravenes its obli- The Council remains united in its support Prime Minister Tammam Salam, Foreign gations under resolutions 1559 and 1701. for Lebanon’s sovereignty, territorial integrity Minister Laurent Fabius conveyed France’s Several pressing issues arise from the and security. The Council is also united in desire to preserve the stability, national unity conflict in neighbouring Syria, including the its concern about the continued vacancy in and state institutions of Lebanon. The same engagement of Lebanese elements in the war the presidency, particularly given the extreme day, a $25 million shipment of US weapons there and the immense burden of hosting challenges facing Lebanon at this time. pledged to the LAF arrived in Beirut. The growing numbers of Syrian refugees. However undivided the Council is on sup- US ambassador to Lebanon, David Hale, said porting Lebanon’s stability, the recent di"- in a statement that “recent attacks against Options culty encountered in issuing what should Lebanon’s army only strengthen America’s One option is for the Council to receive the have been a fairly routine press statement resolve to stand in solidarity with the people briefing and take no action. concerning the death of a peacekeeper dem- of Lebanon, adding that the two countries Another option would be to issue an out- onstrates that, like in other contexts, the were “fighting the same enemy”. come, such as a resolution, addressing the Council is often constrained in its ability to On 23 December 2014, Secretary-General plethora of political and security issues facing react to crises involving Israel.

Sudan and South Sudan

Expected Council Action reported that Sudan’s air force bombed Fran- Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation In March, Council members will hold their dala hospital in South Kordofan on 20 Janu- Movement-North (SPLM-N) commenced a quarterly meeting on implementation of reso- ary, dropping 13 bombs. According to the aid new round of negotiations in Addis Ababa lution 2046 on Sudan-South Sudan relations, organisation, two of the bombs landed inside on 12 November 2014, mediated by Thabo as outlined in a 21 August 2014 presidential the hospital grounds, wounding one patient Mbeki, chair of the AU High-Level Imple- note. At press time, no outcome was antici- and one sta! member. The Belgian branch of mentation Panel. In his opening remarks, pated on this issue during the month. MSF suspended its operation in Sudan on 29 SPLM-N head negotiator Yasir Armin said January, citing “the Sudanese government’s that there should be “a credible national Key Recent Developments systematic denial of access to people trapped constitutional conference” in Sudan, with Heavy fighting between Sudanese govern- in conflict areas”. On 5 February, the UN elections taking place under the auspices ment forces and SPLM-N rebels was report- High Commission for Refugees announced of a national transitional government. He ed in South Kordofan from early December that since December 2014 more than 500 also underscored the need for humanitar- 2014 through mid-January, especially near Sudanese refugees from South Kordofan ian access in conflict areas of Sudan, saying the state capital of Kadugli and the town state had arrived at refugee camps in South that “denying it is a war crime in international of Talodi. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) Sudan escaping the violence in Sudan. humanitarian law”. Ibrahim Ghandour, who

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) provided a roadmap for Sudan, South Sudan and the SPLM-N to resolve outstanding issues; it also threatened Article 41 measures. Security Council Press Statement SC/11694 (11 December 2014) reiterated concern about the humanitarian situation in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Other S/2014/613 (21 August 2014) indicated that the Council would meet on a quarterly basis to discuss implementation of resolution 2046.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Sudan and South Sudan (con’t) is leading the Sudanese delegation, said that should be established instead. Options the government was committed to resolving Sudan’s Humanitarian Aid Commission One option for the Council is to adopt a pres- its conflicts through dialogue and negotiation, reported on 5 January that it had extended idential statement that: citing the country’s “national dialogue pro- for an additional six months its June 2014 • expresses concern over recent violence in cess” as a means to “reach consensus on… deal with South Sudan to allow humanitarian Abyei; solutions for [Sudan’s]…major problems”. aid to be shipped from Sudan to South Sudan • reiterates its call for the parties to recon- The talks ended in early December, as the in an initiative facilitated by the World Food vene the Abyei Joint Oversight Commit- parties made no headway. Sudan insists on Programme. On 29 December 2014, approx- tee, which is designed to provide adminis- the disarmament of the SPLM-N and a cease- imately 450 tonnes of food reached Renk and trative and political oversight of the region fire, while the SPLM-N demands that the Wadakona in Upper Nile state, South Sudan, but has not met since May 2013; and humanitarian needs of inhabitants in South having been transported by barge from Kosti • calls on the government of Sudan to Kordofan and Blue Nile be addressed after in Sudan’s White Nile State. adhere to its commitment to provide a the declaration of a cessation of hostilities. Council members last held consultations “conducive environment” for the national Despite President Omar al-Bashir’s prom- on Sudan/South Sudan on 8 December 2014 dialogue process in Sudan. ise to create a “conducive environment” for a with a briefing by Haile Menkerios, Special Another option for the Council is to estab- national dialogue process in Sudan, govern- Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan and Spe- lish a commission of inquiry to investigate ment repression has continued. On 3 Decem- cial Representative to the AU. During the allegations that war crimes have been com- ber 2014, the Sudan Revolutionary Front meeting, members expressed frustration that mitted in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. rebel alliance, key opposition political par- the two countries have been unable to imple- Also an option is for the Council to con- ties and civil society groups in Sudan signed ment provisions of resolution 2046. On 11 sider the humanitarian crisis in South Kordo- the “Sudan Call” agreement in Addis Ababa, December 2014, the Council issued a press fan and Blue Nile during the annual joint calling for an end to civil war and the coun- statement in which it called on Sudan and meeting that Council members will hold with try’s transition to democracy. Upon return- South Sudan to implement fully the Joint the AU Peace and Security Council in Addis ing to Sudan from Addis Ababa, two of the Border Verification and Monitoring Mech- Ababa in March and try to come up with new key signatories—Farouk Abu Issa, who heads anism (JBVMM) along the Sudan-South ways of addressing it. a group of opposition political parties called Sudan border in compliance with resolution the National Consensus Forces, and civil 2046. In the statement, members also reit- Council Dynamics society activist Amin Mekki Madani—were erated “their grave concern about the dire Council members remain frustrated at the arrested by Sudanese authorities. At press humanitarian situation” caused by the ongo- lack of progress made by Sudan and South time, they remain in prison and are being ing conflict in Sudan’s South Kordofan and Sudan in resolving the outstanding issues tried in Khartoum for charges that include Blue Nile states. They further called on the facing them, such as border demarcation, instigating war against the state. If convicted, parties to “refrain from any acts of violence the establishment of temporary administra- they could face the death penalty. against civilians and to expedite safe and tive bodies in Abyei and the region’s final On 4 January, Sudan’s parliament unhindered humanitarian access”. status. On the other hand, there is recogni- approved amendments to the constitution tion among members that both Sudan and that allow the president to appoint state Key Issues South Sudan are preoccupied with their own governors (who were previously elected One key issue is whether and how the Coun- domestic crises, which remain the primary through popular su!rage) and expands cil can promote constructive negotiations focus of their attention. the power of the National Intelligence and between Sudan and the SPLM-N, especially After more than three years of fighting Security Services. given the recent surge in fighting between the in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, Sudan’s National Elections Commission government and the rebel group. divisions on the Council continue to pre- announced that general elections—i.e. for the Another key issue is the ongoing repressive- vent it from playing a constructive role in presidency and the national assembly—will ness of the government in Khartoum and what alleviating the su!ering of civilians in these be held from 13 to 15 April. Bashir, who has implications this has for political stability in areas, as the government continues to pre- been in power since 1989, has decided to run the country, especially in light of the upcoming vent humanitarian aid from reaching rebel- for president again despite previously declar- presidential and national assembly elections. held territories and carries out indiscrimi- ing that he would step down at the end of his Also an important issue is whether and nate aerial bombardments. Some members current term. Several opposition parties have how the Council can play a role in protecting have espressed strong concerns about this vowed to boycott the elections, citing the gov- civilians in South Kordofan and Blue Nile violence against civilians, while others have ernment’s repressive policies and believing and enabling humanitarian assistance to pen- asserted Sudan’s sovereign right to defend that a broad-based transitional government etrate rebel-held areas. itself against rebel movements. that will draft a constitution that results in The US is the penholder on Sudan/South the democratic transformation of the country Sudan issues.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Sudan (Darfur)

to visit Tabit due to government restrictions on Expected Council Action briefed the Council on 4 December 2014, access. The report contains recommendations for In March, the Council will consider two he stated that while Sudan had called for the the Security Council, such as adopting a resolu- reports on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in departure of UNAMID, it had also “clearly tion demanding that Sudan allow UNAMID imme- Darfur (UNAMID), both were expected to established that this is not about leaving diate and unrestricted access to Tabit, including be released before the end of February. These tomorrow” and that “we need to agree on the establishment of a permanent presence in the town, and imposing travel bans and asset freezes are the quarterly report on UNAMID and a a strategy”. on individuals responsible for the attacks. Other special report that analyses the implementa- Fighting continues to result in thousands - tion of the strategic review of the mission con- of additional internally displaced persons - ducted last year and includes “recommenda- (IDPs) in Central and North Darfur. On 8 missioner for Human Rights to conduct investiga- tions for the future mandate, composition, February, the UN O"ce for the Coordina- tions into the alleged abuses in Tabit. configuration and exit strategy of UNAMID” tion of Humanitarian A!airs reported that per resolution 2173 of 27 August 2014. since the start of 2015, more than 38,500 Key Issues The mandate of UNAMID expires on 30 displaced people had entered IDP camps The underlying issue is the on-going secu- June. in North Darfur. It also noted a high num- rity and humanitarian catastrophe in Dar- ber of recently displaced people in parts of fur, which is marked by widespread vio- Key Recent Developments Central Darfur, including Golo, Jebel Marra lence, impunity and displacement and shows Since late last year, there has been significant and Rokero. no signs of improving, despite the fact that tension between the UN and the government UNAMID has been deployed for more than of Sudan. First, the government has restrict- Sanctions-Related Developments seven years. ed UNAMID’s access to Tabit, a village in On 6 February, Ambassador Rafael Ramírez Given the political, logistical and financial (Venezuela), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions North Darfur where more than 200 girls and challenges of the hybrid peacekeeping model, women were reportedly the victims of a mass Committee’s work in consultations. (This broke a related issue is whether and how this model rape perpetrated by the Sudan Armed Forces with the recent practice of holding sanctions can be improved. in late October 2014. Second, in November Another key issue is the future of UNA- 2014, Sudan transmitted a note verbale to the by consultations.) Ramírez told Council members MID, given requests by the government for that the Committee recognised the quality of the mission indicating that UNAMID needed the mission to develop an exit strategy despite “an exit strategy”. Finally, Sudan announced the Committee was concerned about attacks on the di"cult environment on the ground. its decision to expel UNDP Country Direc- civilians and UN personnel while noting that sev- Also an important issue is how the Coun- tor Yvonne Helle (Netherlands) and Resi- eral Committee members had underscored con- cil decides to respond to the recommenda- dent and Humanitarian Coordinator Ali tinued violations of the arms embargo. tions proposed by the Secretary-General in On 12 February, the Council adopted resolu- al-Zaatari (Jordan) on 24 and 25 December his special report. tion 2200, renewing the Panel of Experts’ man- 2014, respectively. date for an additional 13 months until 12 March In December 2014, a joint AU/UN assess- 2016. The resolution built largely on last year’s Options ment mission visited Sudan in keeping with resolution 2138 to renew the Panel’s mandate. One option is for the Council to consider the request in resolution 2173 that the Sec- However, some adjustments were made. For the Secretary-General’s reports but to take retary-General “conduct an analysis of the example, the resolution strengthened the lan- no concrete action at the present time. This guage regarding restrictions against the move- implementation of the Council’s review of ment of weapons and ammunition by Sudan and would provide members with the time to UNAMID” in close consultations with the think strategically about the Secretary-Gen- AU. It appears that the assessment team It also requested that the Panel of Experts share eral’s recommendations and how to respond concluded that UNAMID needs to adapt any evidence of potential non-compliance with to them prior to the expiration of UNAMID’s its approach to protecting civilians while the assets freeze and travel ban with the Com- mandate on 30 June. mittee as soon as possible. also noting ongoing challenges facing the Another related option would be for the mission with regard to facilitating humani- Council to direct the Working Group on tarian access. (The review of UNAMID’s Human Rights-Related Developments Peacekeeping Operations to study the Secre- mandate was requested in resolution 2113, Human Rights Watch released a report on 11 Feb- tary-General’s special report and convey its ruary titled “Mass Rape in Darfur: Sudanese Army which renewed the mission on 30 July 2013 views back to the Council regarding the mis- Attacks Against Civilians in Tabit”, which docu- in the context of a deteriorating security and - sion’s future. humanitarian situation in Darfur and a lack ible information about an additional 194 incidents The Council could also consider establish- of progress in implementing the Doha Docu- of rape perpetrated by members of the Sudanese ing a commission of inquiry to investigate the ment for Peace in Darfur.) Armed Forces in Tabit over 36 hours beginning on allegations of mass rape in Tabit. When Under-Secretary-General for based on more than 130 interviews conducted by Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous telephone, as Human Rights Watch was not able

Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2200 (12 February 2015) renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts. S/RES/2173 (27 August 2014) renewed the mandate of UNAMID. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7326Security Council Press Statement SC/11658 (19 November 2014) called on Sudan to provide access to Tabit and throughout Darfur. Sanctions Committee Document S/2015/31 the Sudan Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Sudan (Darfur) (con’t)

Council Dynamics Tabit, some members, such as Lithuania, the stated that there needs to be “a more thor- The Council is divided on its approach to UK and the US, have argued that UNAMID ough, independent and impartial investiga- Darfur. Some members are critical of Khar- needs to be provided unfettered access to tion”. On the other hand, Russia has stated toum for what they see as a consistent pat- the town for further investigations. This is in that the allegations are “scurrilous”, as they tern of attacks against civilians and antago- keeping with the 19 November 2014 press were initially made by the “anti-Khartoum nistic behaviour toward the UN presence in statement in which Council members “noted broadcasting of Radio Dabanga” and Khar- the country. Other members tend to be more that proper access to Tabit and its population toum’s own investigation failed to uncover supportive of the government and focus the for UNAMID…is essential to conducting a evidence of rape. blame for the situation in Darfur primarily on full investigation into the allegations in order The UK is the penholder on Darfur while the rebel groups. to determine their veracity and, if verified, to Venezuela is the chair of the 1591 Sudan Regarding the allegations of mass rape in ensure accountability”. Chad likewise has Sanctions Committee.

DPRK (North Korea)

arms from Cuba to the DPRK on board the Chong Expected Council Action US-ROK “war drills”. Referring also to a 22 Chon Gang in July 2013.) The report documents In March, the Council is due to renew the January YouTube interview with US Presi- how the OMM has been able to evade sanctions mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the dent Barack Obama in which he said that by changing the registration and ownership of 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea a regime like the one in Pyongyang “would vessels controlled by the company and makes (DPRK) Sanctions Committee. eventually collapse”, the statement said that several recommendations aimed at better target- ing OMM’s activities, including updating the sanc- The Committee is expected in March to the DPRK “has neither need nor willingness tions listing to include aliases and revising the continue its consideration of the Panel of to sit at the negotiating table with the US Implementation Assistance Notice on the Chong Experts’ final report under resolution 2141. any longer”. Chon Gang case to clarify implementation of the On 8 February the DPRK test-fired a mis- asset freeze. The Panel also suggests additional Key Recent Developments sile described as a new type of cutting-edge, listings and makes a number of recommendations directed at member states. As in the past, the DPRK seemed to increase anti-ship rocket. Pyongyang boasted that it On 26 February, the new chair of the Commit- its hostile rhetoric in anticipation of the annu- was the most sophisticated rocket developed tee, Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain), briefed al joint military exercises between the US and by the DPRK so far, but some observers said Council members in consultations on its work. At the Republic of Korea (ROK) that are sched- the missile appeared to be Russian. In a cau- press time the meeting was still underway, but he uled to begin in early March. tiously worded response, China called for “all was expected to talk about the three Commit- tee meetings that were held during the reporting On 25 January, the DPRK National relevant parties” to make e!orts to safeguard period, recent activities of the Panel of Experts Defence Commission said in a statement peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. and an exchange of letters with the ICRC regard- transmitted to the Security Council that Meanwhile, the US reiterated that it ing an exemption request related to a demining “even a basic climate for dialogue” with the would be willing to restart negotiations with project in the DPRK. ROK had not been created. Referring to the the DPRK based on credible indications that planned military exercises, the statement Pyongyang would abide by its past commit- Human Rights-Related Developments accused the ROK of “souring the atmosphere ment to denuclearisation. With regard to the human rights situation, the DPRK noted in a 2 February joint letter to the for the improvement of relations with sabre Council and the General Assembly that Shin rattling” and warned of “stern punishment”. Sanctions-Related Developments Dong-hyok, one of the witnesses for the Com- The Sanctions Committee met on 11 February to At the same time, it called on the ROK to mission of Inquiry on the human rights situation respond sincerely to the DPRK’s call for “the in the DPRK, had retracted parts of his testimony report concludes that violations of the sanc- and that the resolution on the DPRK adopted by opening up of a broad avenue for indepen- tions regime have continued, with no sign of the General Assembly was therefore “based on dent reunification by concerted e!orts”. any change in the DPRK’s behaviour that would falsehood from A to Z”. The letter went on to say indicate greater willingness to engage with the In a 4 February statement, also transmit- that all member states should be informed that international community on the nuclear issue. A ted to the Council, the National Defence the resolution was “unlawful” and called on the major part of the report apparently focuses on Commission turned its attention to the US, EU and Japan, which drafted it, to apologise. the activities of the Ocean Maritime Manage- On 16 February, at a press conference organ- denouncing Washington’s “hostile policy”, ment Company (OMM), which was designated by ised by the DPRK permanent mission to the UN, including new sanctions imposed on 2 Janu- the Sanctions Committee on 28 July 2014 for its the DPRK said it had asked the US State Depart- involvement in the Chong Chon Gang case. (OMM ary in response to the cyber-attack against ment to cancel a conference at the Center for played a key role in arranging the shipment of Sony Pictures Entertainment and the joint Strategic and International Studies in Washington,

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DPRK Security Council Resolution S/RES/2141 (5 March 2014) extended until 5 April 2015 the Panel of Experts’ mandate. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7353 (22 December 2014) was the meeting on the human rights situation in the DPRK. Security Council Letters S/2015/90 (4 February 2015) was a DPRK letter transmitting the National Defence Commission statement on the US. S/2015/84 (2 February 2015) was the DPRK letter denouncing the Commission of Inquiry report. S/2015/64 (27 January 2015) was a DPRK letter transmitting the National Defence Commission statement on the ROK.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 21 DPRK (North Korea) (con’t)

DC to commemorate the one-year anniversary Options sanctions regime. A more detailed discussion of the Commission of Inquiry report but that the One option for the Council would be to issue of the report’s recommendations is expected at request had been denied. (The State Department a statement following the Committee chair’s the next Committee meeting in March. noted that the conference was a privately organ- ised event.) The DPRK also said it was not wor- briefing, welcoming the Panel of Experts’ With regard to the latest signals from ried about a referral to the ICC since it was not report, condemning the DPRK’s missile Pyongyang, most Council members see little guilty of any crimes. launches and other violations and calling on reason for optimism and point to the Panel’s The Human Rights Council will consider the Pyongyang to demonstrate commitment to conclusion that it had seen no change in the report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation the dismantling of its nuclear program and DPRK’s behaviour. of human rights in the DPRK, Marzuki Darusman, during its 28th session in March. The report is return to the six-party talks involving China, While there are no plans for any immedi- expected to focus on abductions and enforced Japan, the ROK, Russia and the US. ate follow-up action in the Council on its 22 disappearances. The DPRK announced on 21 For the Committee, the main option is December 2014 meeting on the human rights February that its foreign minister would attend to continue its consideration of the Pan- situation in the DPRK, it appears that some the session. el’s report and implementation of relevant Council members have started to engage in recommendations. very preliminary discussions on possible next Key Issues steps. Discussions focus on both the format A key issue for the Council is the DPRK’s Council and Wider Dynamics and timing of any follow-up. It seems gen- continued flouting of all relevant resolutions At the 11 February Sanctions Committee erally agreed that the timing will depend on and its stated rejection of any dialogue aimed meeting, Council members had an initial whether there are any new developments or at denuclearisation. exchange of views on the Panel of Experts’ new information that merit the Council’s An additional issue is what kind of follow- report. Comments were fairly general, however, attention. In this regard, the new field-based up action the Council should consider on the with most members welcoming the report and o"ce that the O"ce of the High Commis- human rights situation in the DPRK. praising the Panel’s work. Overall, statements sioner for Human Rights is setting up in At the Sanctions Committee level, a key reflected traditional dividing lines between Seoul to continue monitoring the human issue is considering the implementation of China and others advocating in favour of a cau- rights situation in the DPRK as mandated the Panel of Experts’ recommendations. tious approach versus the P3 and like-mind- by the Human Rights Council is seen as a ed countries that are supportive of measures welcome development. aimed at increasing the e!ectiveness of the The US is the penholder on the DPRK.

Iran

Expected Council Action first extended in July 2014.) The parties are February, both Kerry and Zarif seemed to In March, the chair of the 1737 Iran Sanc- working towards an end-of-March deadline rule out an extension of the agreed deadline. tions Committee, Ambassador Román Oyar- to agree on a political framework containing On 9 February, US President Barack Obama zun (Spain), is due to brief the Council on the main elements of a final accord, leaving said di!erences in the negotiations had been the work of the Committee. This will be time for technical details to be worked out “su"ciently narrowed and su"ciently clari- Oyarzun’s first briefing since taking over the during the remaining three months. fied” for Iran to decide whether it wanted chairmanship from Ambassador Gary Quin- While few details have emerged from a deal. At the end of the most recent bilat- lan (Australia) on 1 January. the negotiations, it seems the main sticking eral round of meetings on 22 and 23 Feb- points still centre on Iran’s uranium-enrich- ruary, both sides said there was still a lot of Key Recent Developments ment capacity, the conditions and timetable work remaining. At press time, negotiations Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germa- for the lifting of sanctions and the duration between the P5+1 and Iran were scheduled ny, Russia, the UK and the US) continued of the agreement. In addition to the meetings to resume on 2 March. negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme with Iran involving all P5+1 partners, there There was no further progress under the following the announcement on 24 Novem- have been several bilateral meetings between Framework for Cooperation agreed between ber 2014 that the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) the US and Iran, including at the level of US the IAEA and Iran on 11 November 2013 initially agreed on 24 November 2013 would Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s For- involving a series of practical measures aimed be extended until 30 June 2015. (The JPA, eign Minister Mohammad Javed Zarif. Fol- at ensuring international confidence in the which came into e!ect on 20 January 2014, lowing meetings on the margins of a secu- exclusively peaceful nature of the Iranian had an initial duration of six months and was rity conference held in Munich on 7 and 8 nuclear programme. In a 19 February report

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2159Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7350Sanctions Committee Document S/2014/932 (17 December 2014) was the Committee’s 2014 annual report. Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/28/12 (22 December 2014) was the report on Iran by the Working Group on the Universal Periodic Review. IAEA Document GOV/2015/15 (19 February 2015) was the latest IAEA report on Iran.

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Iran (con’t)

to the Council, the IAEA Director General Options said that Iran had still not implemented two relevant developments. The Committee also As long as the P5+1 talks with Iran are ongo- of the five practical measures agreed in May reviewed the list of pending issues but Council ing, options for the Council remain limited. members’ positions remained unchanged and no 2014, namely sharing information about its progress was made. (Pending issues include a US The chair’s briefing will o!er another oppor- research into high-explosive detonators that proposal to designate Jaysh Al-Shabi, a pro-gov- tunity for individual Council members to could be used to trigger a nuclear weapon and ernment Syrian militia that has allegedly received express their views on the talks and the role about neutron transport studies that could be arms from Iran, a proposal to send a letter to Iran of the Committee in supporting the process. relevant to calculate the explosive yield of a In addition, elected members could nuclear weapon. The IAEA had repeatedly transfers and a draft Implementation Assistance request the P5 to brief them on the status of invited Iran to propose additional practical Notice on the Great Prophet exercise conducted the negotiations. This would be particularly measures but had received no response. The by Iran in July 2012.) appropriate if there is a breakthrough that will report noted, however, that Iran had contin- require Council action at some point later ued to comply with the provisions of the JPA, this year. as extended. Human Rights-Related Developments During its upcoming 28th regular session in Council and Wider Dynamics March, the Human Rights Council will consider Sanctions-Related Developments Because of the delicate stage of the negotia- the report on Iran by the Working Group on the On 18 December 2014, Quinlan presented his Universal Periodic Review, which contains 291 tions between the P5+1 and Iran, access to - recommendations (A/HRC/28/12). Reports on information is limited for Council members, mittee’s work. Quinlan welcomed the continued the human rights situation in Iran from the Secre- commitment of Iran and the P5+1 to reach agree- and few are willing to speculate about the ment on a comprehensive solution but empha- outcome or possible implications of a break- the Special Rapporteur (A/HRC/28/70) will also sised that the sanctions imposed by the Council through for future Council action, although be considered. there are expectations that sanctions will be also remained fully committed to their imple- lifted in a gradual and reversible way. mentation. He encouraged Iran to engage with the Committee and respond to its letters. (The Key Issues With regard to the work of the Sanctions Committee has sent four letters to Iran but has so A key issue for the Council is how it can best Committee, the P3 and like-minded mem- far received no replies.) The Committee’s annual support the negotiations between Iran and bers continue to emphasise that the Commit- report was issued on 17 December. the P5+1 to ensure a positive outcome. tee must remain focused on sanctions imple- If there is a breakthrough in the negotia- mentation and that member states should be meeting under the new chair. It was briefed by the coordinator of the Panel of Experts, Salomé tions by the March deadline, a further issue reminded that the sanctions remain fully in Zourabichvili (France), who said the Panel had is what the implications will be for the Iran e!ect. The main focus of Council members, received no further reports of violations. Refer- sanctions regime, in particular with regard however, seems to be on the P5+1 negotia- ring to the P5+1 negotiations, she asked for some to the timetable for the lifting of sanctions, tions with Iran. - including the provisions on conventional The US is the penholder on Iran. arms and ballistic missile technology.

Liberia

Expected Council Action 2190. Resolution 2188 concerned Liberia and a final report by 15 August), resolution In March, the Council is expected to receive a sanctions; it rea"rmed the asset freeze (which 2190 also requested the Secretary-General briefing from the Department of Peacekeep- was not time-limited), renewed the travel ban to submit an interim update by 15 March ing Operations (DPKO), assessing the impact and arms embargo on non-state actors for specifically assessing the impact of Ebola on of Ebola on stability in Liberia and presenting nine months and extended the mandate of stability in Liberia and providing options for options for resuming the drawdown of the the Panel of Experts for ten months. Resolu- resuming the drawdown of UNMIL. UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL). tion 2190 renewed the mandate of UNMIL According to data from the World Health until 30 September 2015. In addition to Organization (WHO), as of 15 February, there Key Recent Developments requesting that the Secretary-General pro- have been 23,253 cases of Ebola and 9,380 The Council last addressed Liberia in Decem- vide reporting on UNMIL in the usual six- deaths, predominantly occurring in Guinea ber, when it adopted resolutions 2188 and month cycle (a mid-term report by 30 April (3,108 cases and 2,057 deaths), Sierra Leone

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBERIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2190 (15 December 2014) renewed the mandate of UNMIL until 30 September 2015. S/RES/2188 (9 December 2014) renewed sanctions on Liberia for nine months. S/RES/2066 (17 September 2012) authorised the reduction of UNMIL’s military strength in three phases between August 2012 and July 2015. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7310Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/598 (15 August 2014) was on UNMIL. Sanctions Committee Document S/2014/831 USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCES Ebola Situation Report, WHO, 18 February 2015. Martin Sajdik, How to Stop the Next Pandemic, US News and World Report, 5 February 2015.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Liberia (con’t)

(11,103 cases and 3,408 deaths) and Liberia and human rights among the armed forces. the “modalities” of resuming the phased (9,007 cases and 3,900 deaths). Among the Second, there is an urgent need for a national drawdown could also need adjusting in light three countries, Liberia appears to have made regulatory framework for arms and ammu- of the upcoming update. In other words, the the most progress recently in reducing the rate nition and the development of the state’s Council recognised the Ebola outbreak may of transmission, with only 11 new cases with- institutional capacity in this area. Third, as also a!ect how UNMIL draws down. in the three weeks prior to 15 February (in the border regions with Côte d’Ivoire remain Given that the Ebola outbreak exposed comparison to 230 new cases in Sierra Leone highly porous, Ivorian mercenaries and non- several systemic problems in Liberia, an and 156 new cases in Guinea during the same state militias continue to pose a risk to the additional option would be for the Council period). The geographic dispersion of new stability of Liberia. Significant resources to stress the need for training and compe- cases in Liberia has also been decreasing, as are required, particularly for increasing the tency in civil-military relations and human only Montserrado county—which includes capacity of the border control force and rights among the armed forces; the develop- the capital city, Monrovia—has had any new national police. Finally, the Panel remains ment of national regulatory framework for Ebola cases during the four weeks preceding concerned by the potential for Liberia to arms and ammunition; and for increasing 15 February. At a briefing on Ebola held in become a transhipment country for illicit the capacity of the border control force and the General Assembly on 18 February, Sec- drugs, similar to Guinea-Bissau and Guinea. national police. retary-General Ban Ki-moon noted the prog- Such drug-tra"cking could finance non-state ress made by Liberia and called on donors to armed groups and undermine stability. Council and Wider Dynamics maintain their support for fighting Ebola. The Ebola outbreak has had a considerable Relative to the height of the Ebola out- Key Issues impact on the Council’s approach to Libe- break just a few months ago, the political situ- In March, the principal issue for the Coun- ria. The policymaking momentum has shift- ation seems to be improving. On 20 Decem- cil will be assessing—after receiving input ed—at least temporarily—from a scheduled ber 2014, the country held senate elections, from DPKO—to what extent Ebola remains drawdown of UNMIL and a probable phas- which had been postponed since 14 Octo- a threat to peace and stability. Depending ing out of sanctions toward maintaining the ber due to the Ebola outbreak. According to on the conclusions drawn, related issues will force levels of UNMIL and retaining sanc- preliminary data by the National Elections be deciding what is required for UNMIL’s tions measures. In resolution 2190, however, Commission (NEC), voter turnout was only force structure and the peacekeeping opera- the Council clearly signalled its intention to about one-quarter of eligible voters, which tion’s drawdown. continue the drawdown of UNMIL once the some observers attributed to voter apathy health crisis subsided. Thus, as the intensity but others suggested was due to Ebola con- Options of the Ebola outbreak diminishes in Libe- cerns. On 22 December, Special Represen- There are essentially two main options for ria, it is probable that Council members will tative of the Secretary-General Karin Land- the Council with respect to UNMIL, both of eventually revert to earlier policy positions gren issued a statement praising the peaceful which are largely dependent upon the analy- on UNMIL. Assuming DPKO’s assessment conduct of the senate elections. On 3 January, ses of DPKO and the Council regarding the of Ebola’s threat to peace and stability is in the NEC certified the results for 12 of the current and projected threat to peace and sta- line with what the latest WHO data regarding 15 senate seats that were up for election (the bility posed by Ebola: declining transmission rates apparently sug- three remaining seats are being contested in • if it is determined that insu"cient prog- gest, it seems likely there will be broad sup- the judiciary). In the high profile race for the ress has been made in mitigating the Ebola port in the Council for resuming UNMIL’s populous Montserrado county seat, opposi- threat, then the Council could decide to drawdown. Under this scenario, what would tion candidate George Weah, a former world further postpone drawdown of UNMIL remain unclear are the specific adjustments to soccer player of the year, defeated indepen- (4,299 military, 115 military observers “modalities” DPKO and the Council would dent candidate Robert Sirleaf, son of the and 1405 police deployed as of 31 Janu- deem necessary to adjust the three-phase pro- president, by the wide margin of 78 percent ary out of 4,811 military and 1,795 police cess outlined in resolution 2066 in light of to 11 percent. authorised); or Ebola’s impact on the country. Some mem- While current trends suggest that Ebola- • if it is determined that Ebola no lon- bers may also insist that the systemic prob- related insecurity in Liberia has decreased ger presents a significant threat to peace lems in Liberia that came into sharp relief in significantly, the final report by the Panel and stability in Liberia, then the Council the context of the Ebola crisis be taken into of Experts transmitted to the Council on 19 could decide to resume UNMIL’s phased consideration when formulating the concept November identified several other risk fac- drawdown as outlined in resolution 2066, of the drawdown. tors that remain relevant. First, the Ebola which would entail a reduction to approxi- The US is the penholder on Liberia, and outbreak exposed a systematic lack of train- mately 3,750 military personnel by July. Jordan is the chair of the 1521 Liberia Sanc- ing and competency in civil-military relations As the Council stated in resolution 2190, tions Committee.

24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 Visiting Mission to Africa

Council members are set to visit the Cen- of MINUSCA and reduction of other inter- January meeting on Boko Haram authorised tral African Republic (CAR); Addis Ababa, national forces could impact current e!orts. the deployment of the Multi-National Joint Ethiopia; and Burundi over a four-day peri- At present, the mission has yet to reach its Task Force (MNJTF) being developed by od in March. A briefing about the mission is originally authorised level of 11,800 military members of the Lake Chad Basin Commis- expected later in the month with a written and police personnel, and its presence is lim- sion (LCBC)—Cameroon, Chad, Niger and report to follow. ited outside of Bangui. Nigeria—and Benin to combat Boko Haram. France is expected to lead the mission in Council members also expect to meet with In addition, the PSC reiterated its call from the CAR and will co-lead the visit to Burun- the transitional authorities and religious lead- its 25 November 2014 communiqué for a di with the US, and also possibly Chad. As ers, the latter group Council members met Security Council resolution that authorises or Council president for March, France will co- with during an Arria-formula meeting on 14 endorses this force and that facilitates finan- lead the Addis Ababa leg with Angola, the March 2014. Members will be keen to dis- cial support for it. Council members have said chair of the Council Ad Hoc Working Group cuss the political process, including progress that before this request, they must receive its on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in in national reconciliation and the prospect for concept of operations (CONOPS). The PSC Africa. In Addis Ababa, the headquarters holding presidential and legislative elections has expressed its intentions to forward the of the AU, the Council will hold its annual by August. The elections had originally been CONOPS to the Council once LCBC coun- consultative meeting with the AU Peace and slated for February but were postponed, so tries finalise it. Therefore, the meeting could Security Council (PSC). A joint communi- members will be keen to learn more about be an opportunity for the two bodies to dis- qué is the expected outcome of the meeting. the state of preparations in order for the new cuss the MNJTF and further discuss ways Since 2007, Council members and PSC timeframe to hold. Likewise, the visit will be they can collaborate and mutually support members have met annually, alternating an opportunity to observe the humanitarian e!orts to combat Boko Haram. between Addis Ababa and New York. situation—there are an estimated 438,000 internally displaced persons in addition to Burundi CAR the more than 400,000 refugees who have The mission is also expected to include a one- The visit to the CAR will be the Council’s fled the country—and further consider the day visit to the capital of Burundi, Bujum- first to the country and comes only months human rights situation. bura. The visit is intended to assess and after the deployment of the UN Multidimen- acknowledge progress achieved in Burundi sional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Addis Ababa over the last ten years since the deployment CAR (MINUSCA) in September 2014. In Addis Ababa, the Council will hold its of UN missions to the country. At the end Members will be keen to observe the secu- annual meeting with the AU PSC, which of December 2014, the mandate of the UN rity situation and assess progress made in the began in 2007 as a way to strengthen coop- O"ce in Burundi (BNUB) ended. BNUB CAR’s stabilisation. They will seek to gain a eration between the two bodies and the two was replaced on 1 January by the UN Elec- better understanding of the challenges that organisations. The location for the meeting toral Observer Mission in Burundi. The trip MINUSCA faces in carrying out its man- alternates each year between New York and is an opportunity for the Council to reiter- date. Besides visiting Bangui, members may Addis Ababa. Last year’s meeting was held ate the importance of Burundi holding free make a trip into the countryside to observe on 6 June 2014 in New York. and fair legislative and presidential elections, the mission’s work beyond the city. In addi- The session will cover a number of situ- which are scheduled for May and June, and tion to meeting the leadership and personnel ations on the African continent that are of to signal that it is still closely following devel- of MINUSCA, members may also meet with overlapping interest to and on the respective opments. The Council is expected to meet French forces in the country from Operation agendas of the two Councils. At press time, with Burundian authorities as well as dif- Sangaris, as well as the EU Force in CAR. the Council was expecting to receive input to ferent stakeholders in the electoral process, At press time, the Council was considering the agenda for the meeting from the PSC. At including representatives of the Independent the Secretary-General’s proposal to increase this point, it seems that there is likely to be a National Electoral Commission and politi- MINUSCA’s troop ceiling by 750 military segment on Abyei, including a briefing by the cal parties. Depending on the time available, personnel and 280 police, in light of the Chair of the AU High-Level Implementation the members may also arrange meetings with expected reduction in the number of French Panel Thabo Mbeki. Last year’s session cov- civil society. forces and conversion of the EU force, whose ered the CAR, South Sudan, the Democratic Despite Burundi’s progress in achieving mandate expires on 15 March, into a train- Republic of the Congo, Mali, Somalia, Darfur security and stability as well as strengthen- ing mission. Though the Council will likely and terrorism. ing its democracy, concerns remain among approve MINUSCA’s increased numbers A subject likely to be prominent will be Council members about reports of intimi- before the visit, members, while in CAR, will the e!orts to address the threat of Boko dation and political violence towards oppo- want to learn more about how the expansion Haram. The PSC communiqué from its 29 sition parties and human rights activists, as

UN DOCUMENTS ON COUNCIL VISITING MISSIONS Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2015/6 (18 February 2015) recognised progress achieved in Burundi and highlighted remaining concerns over the situation in the country, including the need for a free and inclusive electoral process in 2015. S/PRST/2015/3 (19 January 2015) condemned Boko Haram attacks and urged LCBC countries to complete a concept of operations for the MNJTF. Security Council Letters S/2015/85 (29 January 2015) was from the Secretary- General requesting a troop increase for MINUSCA. S/2014/400 (9 June 2014) was the joint communiqué of the eighth annual consultative meeting between the Council and the PSC. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCE PSC/AHG/COMM.2(CDLXXXIV) to combat the Boko Haram terrorist group.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 25 Visiting Mission to Africa(con’t) well as government restrictions on freedom Moreover, President Pierre Nkurunziza’s visit will provide a possible opportunity for of assembly and expression. These concerns apparent intention to run for a third term is members to further discuss the situation with were recently reflected in the Council’s 18 generating controversy. The opposition has relevant actors. February presidential statement. Some mem- claimed that this move violates the constitu- The Council last visited Burundi in 2005 bers may raise these concerns during the tion, and a campaign made up of more than after having conducted a series of visits to the meetings while encouraging the authorities to 300 civil society groups was launched in Feb- country in 1994, 1995, 2001, 2002 and 2004. make further e!orts to ensure political space ruary calling for him not to run and warning for the opposition. that such a run could lead to violence. The

EU-UN Cooperation

Expected Council Action negotiations on behalf of the international EUCAP’s main role is to train and advise In March the Council is expected to hold community; internal security forces in Mali. In the wider a meeting on cooperation between the UN • ensuring EU’s capacity to implement a region, the EU continues its cooperation with and regional and subregional organisations, comprehensive approach to resolving cri- the UN and other regional organisations as focusing on strengthening the partnership ses; and part of the Sahel strategy framework. with the EU. Federica Mogherini, the EU • a wide range of tools to solve crises and In April 2014, upon receiving a Council High Representative for Foreign A!airs and work closely with the EU’s international mandate (resolutions 2134 and 2181), the Security Policy, will brief the Council. and regional partners in collective e!orts. EU deployed 1,000 troops in the CAR in No outcome is expected. This will be the fifth meeting of the Coun- an e!ort to stabilise the country and relieve cil on cooperation between the UN and the pressure on the international troops already Background EU. When the last meeting was held during there. The mission’s mandate is set to expire The UN Charter establishes the Security the Lithuanian Council presidency in 2014, on 15 March. However, on 19 January the Council as the principal organ charged with the Council adopted its first presidential EU decided to establish a new military mis- the maintenance of international peace and statement on cooperation between the UN sion, the EU Military Advisory Mission in security. In addition, Chapter VIII of the and the EU. The statement emphasised the CAR, which will provide expert advice on Charter also envisions a role for regional EU’s cooperation with the UN and its role in the reform of the security sector, most nota- organisations in an e!ort to achieve peace- the maintenance of international peace and bly in regards to the management of the ful settlement of local disputes, as long as security and in the implementation of Coun- CAR armed forces. The CAR is one of the such e!orts are subordinate to the Security cil-mandated tasks. most notable cases of extensive cooperation Council. Furthermore, Article 54 states that between the EU and the UN, as well as other the Council should “at all times be kept fully Key Recent Developments regional organisations. informed of activities undertaken or in con- The last four EU briefings were focused pri- The spread of the Ebola virus in West templation” by regional organisations “for marily on African issues, which also domi- Africa became another challenging issue for the maintenance of international peace and nate the Council’s agenda. At the briefing the international community in 2014. The security”. in March, the EU’s response to the crisis EU has contributed more than $1.2 billion On 1 November 2014, Mogherini in Ukraine will likely rate higher on Mogh- in aid to help contain the Ebola virus. The assumed the position of EU High Represen- erini’s agenda. In addition to addressing EU coordinates its assistance to West Africa tative for Foreign A!airs and Security Policy, UN-EU cooperation in the Horn of Africa, with the relevant UN agencies as well as oth- previously held by Catherine Ashton. This the Sahel and the Central African Republic er partners, including regional organisations will be the first time that Mogherini will brief (CAR), Mogherini might also discuss the and NGOs. the Council on EU-UN Cooperation. In the EU’s response to the new aspects of terror- The UN has been gradually scaling down last briefing on this issue, held on 14 Febru- ism threats and the Ebola virus. its presence in the Balkans as the EU has ary 2014, Ashton reiterated the strong com- In Mali, the EU has cooperated with the assumed the leading role. The involvement mitment of the EU to supporting e!ective UN as a part of the Sahel strategy framework. of the EU has been instrumental to the nor- multilateralism with the goal of achieving On 19 January, the EU launched the EU’s malisation of relations between Serbia and lasting solutions to international peace and Common Security and Defence Policy mis- Kosovo, in particular the signing of the 19 security challenges, using the EU’s threefold sion in Mali (EUCAP) to help Mali ensure April 2013 agreement on normalisation of approach: constitutional and democratic order. In coop- relations between Belgrade and Pristina. On • direct involvement in international eration with other international partners, 9 February, after a break of more than ten

Security Council Resolution S/RES/1631 (17 October 2005) addressed the issue of cooperation between the UN and regional organisa- tions and stressed the role of regional organisations in addressing the issue of small arms. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2014/4 (14 February 2014) was on EU-UN cooperation. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7112 (14 February 2014) was on EU-UN cooperation.

26 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 EU-UN Cooperation (con’t) months, Mogherini resumed the high-lev- While addressing the annual Munich Policy chief. This year the Council dynam- el talks between Serbia and Kosovo on the Security Conference on 8 February, Mogheri- ics with the EU could be a!ected by the rift implementation of the agreement. ni outlined key priorities for the EU’s foreign between Russia and Western Council mem- Since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine, security and policy. Besides the aforemen- bers over the crisis in Ukraine. While address- the EU has been heavily invested in supporting tioned issues, Mogherini also emphasised the ing the situation in Ukraine during last year’s diplomatic e!orts aimed at a solution through importance of addressing the crises in Libya, meeting on EU-UN cooperation, Russia peaceful means. Mogherini has held numerous Iraq and Syria, especially with the increasing stated that the solution to the Ukrainian cri- meetings with all relevant actors in the crisis, threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and sis must be found by Ukrainians themselves while the EU continued political, economic al-Sham. In addition, Mogherini addressed “without the threat of sanctions or competi- and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Most the lack of progress on the Iranian nuclear tion to promote the European values of exter- notably, the EU has imposed a wide range of issue and the need to revive the peace process nal actors”. Now that the EU has imposed sanctions on Russian and Ukrainian o"cials in the Middle East. sanctions on Russia over its role in Ukraine, over Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea Russia will likely be considerably critical of and Sevastopol. The sanctions were extended Key Issues the EU role. Russia might voice its concern throughout the course of 2014 in response to The main issue is to have a constructive dis- over EU’s use of sanctions, since it has recent- Russia’s role in the conflict in Ukraine. So far cussion about the cooperation between the ly argued that any sanctions other than those the EU has imposed restricted measures (asset EU and the UN and the ways in which this imposed by the Council are counterproduc- freezes and visa bans) on 132 persons and 28 relationship could be strengthened and more tive and undermine primacy of the Council. entities deemed directly responsible for actions e"cient, in particular where there are over- Furthermore, Russia is likely to emphasise against Ukraine’s territorial integrity and for lapping agendas. the subordinate role of other regional organ- providing support for Russian decision-makers. isations based on the provisions of the UN In July and September 2014 the EU adopted Council Dynamics Charter, in particular Chapter VIII. a series of economic sanctions targeting the In past years the Council has been generally There are four members of the EU on the Russian financial, defence and energy sectors. supportive of the cooperation between the Council this year: France, Lithuania, Spain Most recently, on 9 February EU foreign min- UN and regional and subregional organisa- and the UK. isters adopted further sanctions targeting Rus- tions and eager to hold the annual meetings sia and pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine. with the EU Foreign A!airs and Security

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 27 Notable Dates for March Joanna Weschler REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN MARCH REQUESTING Deputy Executive Director & DOCUMENT Director of Research

25 February SG report on UNSMIL (Libya) S/RES/2144 Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & Senior Research Analyst 26 February SG report on UNAMID (Darfur) S/RES/2173 Shamala Kandiah Thompson 26 February OPCW report on the implementation of resolution 2118 (Syrian S/RES/2118 What’s in Blue Editor & Senior chemical weapons) Research Analyst

27 February SG report on UNAMA (Afghanistan) S/RES/2145 Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & 27 February SG report on the implementation of resolution 1701 (Lebanon, S/RES/2172 UNIFIL) Victor Casanova Abos Research Analyst 27 February Recommendations of the Somalia and Eritrea 751/1907 S/RES/2182 Monitoring Group and the Federal Government of Somalia Charles Cater regarding a potential exemption to the arms embargo Research Analyst

27 February SG’s report on the implementation of UNAMID’s review (Darfur) S/RES/2173 Dahlia Morched Research Analyst & Communications Coordinator 5 March Final report of the 1718 DPRK Panel of Experts S/RES/2141 Paul Romita 10 March Final report of the 1970 Libya Panel of Experts S/RES/2144 Research Analyst

10 March SG report on MONUSCO (Democratic Republic of the Congo) S/RES/2147 Eran Sthoeger Research Analyst 11 March SG report on MINUSTAH (Haiti) S/RES/2180 Benjamin Villanti 12 March SG report on the PSC Framework for the DRC and the Region S/RES/2147 Research Analyst

18 March SG report on UNDOF (Golan Heights) S/RES/2192 Robbin VanNewkirk Publications Coordinator

20 March SG report on the humanitarian situation in Syria S/RES/2139 Vladimir Sesar S/RES/2191 Research Associate

Lindiwe Knutson MANDATES RELEVANT DOCUMENT Research Assistant EXPIRE Maritza Tenerelli 13 March UNSMIL (Libya) S/RES/2144 Administrative Assistant

17 March UNAMA (Afghanistan) S/RES/2145 Stevenson Swanson Editorial Consultant 18 March Libya sanctions on the illicit export of oil S/RES/2146 Security Council Report is a non- 31 March MONUSCO (Democratic Republic of the Congo) S/RES/2147 the Governments of Angola, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, 5 April 1718 DPRK Panel of Experts (mandate expires in April but will S/RES/2141 Ireland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, likely be renewed in March) Luxembourg, Malaysia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, 13 April 1970 Libya Panel of Experts (mandate expires in April but will S/RES/2144 Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, likely be renewed in March) Switzerland, Turkey and Uruguay, and Carnegie Corporation and John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. The Security Council Report and What’s in Blue Apps are available for free at the App Store. Design Point Five, NY

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28 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2015