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How Robust Is Oologah Lake Water Supply for Droughts? Marjolein Mens

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How Robust Is Oologah Lake Water Supply for Droughts? Marjolein Mens How robust is Oologah Lake water supply for droughts? Marjolein Mens Institute for water resources Overview 1. What is system robustness analysis? 2. Application on drought risk systems 1. System definition 2. Introduction to Oologah Lake 3. Drought impact model 4. Drought event characterisation and selection 3. Robustness of Oologah water supply system 4. Discussion 1. What is system robustness analysis? Robustness analysis Robustness = ability to remain functioning during a range of disturbance magnitudes failure of one element failure of entire system system failure Unacceptable consequences ‘Great catastrophe’ (Munich Re): impact > 5% GDP A Mens and Klijn (under review) The added value of system robustness analysis for flood risk management. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Example Quantifying system robustness Criteria: 1. Resistance threshold 2. Response proportionality 3. Severity / Manageability 3. Manageability 2.Proportionality 1. Resistance threshold disturbance 2. Application to drought risk systems • System definition System • Introduction to Oologah Lake • Drought impact model • Drought event characterisation System response System definition 1. Disturbance Drought events 2. System Water users, operating rules, cost of water shortage 3. Response Economic impact of drought events drought droughtevent demand eventdrought drought Water balance event Inflow cost event model cost Outflow cost cost disturbance system Alternative response sources 2. Application to drought risk systems • System definition • Introduction to Oologah Lake • Drought impact model • Drought event characterisation N Oologah Lake N B r . V e r d i g r Madison is R i v e r V e r d i g r i s W R i il v low e C r re ek Oologah Lake W atershed Boundary r e Streams v i Sla R te l C l ree a k F . r County Boundaries B E H Reservoirs o m e r C W B r Urban/Developed Areas r. Fall e Ri e ver k We Verdgris Basin Lakes O utside Oologah W atershed st C reek Ve rd igr State Boundary is R iv er Eureka W Ba a chelor C l n reek ut C Fa er l R ek iv e r F al Creek l R Spring i ve r k e k Toroe nto Lake e r re C C y k d l o ee n f a Cr a u alo S B uff B W E O V tter e Creek r d ig r Cr eek Otter Creek is er r. Ott R B N i F v al e Fall River Lake r l R iv er ek Kansas re er C Ott Br. Sa S lt C re ek (Fa ll) E l k k R e e i v r e C r r a d Fredonia e C P ig a B w p ek R a e w r oc k C k C e a e p C r r r r e e o e C t e v e ek i k h w R C o Oklahoma is b r k n g k i i e e a d e r E e r R e lk r R E iv C C V er l E k d n R o e i o v h h e c r t r i e t H n i a Neodesha r P e v i R s i r k E g i e l d k r e r Ri S e v y C e V l c l Creek r i ildcat a W H m g o i r e B C k e r e k e r e e e C k r k C c u k) m l D u (E r k ree D lt C a r S Elk Cie ty Lake iv er R Riv lk Big Hill Lake lk E E k e e r C Cherryvale n i k p m Independence u P V e r d ig r is R i v e r O n i o n C re ek Kansas Coffeyville ek re C w o er n iv S reek R m C ri s k posu ig ee Op d r r C e ig V B r e Hulah Lake iv C R a s l i f ri or i g n rd ia e C V Copan Lake er Oklahoma e k ) h a g o l o O ( k e e Bartlesville Now ata r C lt Blues tem Lake a OologS ah Lake reek Double C eek den Cr Mad r ek e re v lala C i a R T s i r g i d r e Birch Lake V Oologah Skiatook Lak e 30 0 30 Miles Three pools in a reservoir Oologah Lake conservation storage 3 Water supply contract Storage (Acre-Feet) yield(MGD) Yield (ft /s) Rogers County RWD #1 1590 1 1 Public Service Co. of Oklahoma 30355 14 21 Rogers County RWD #3 5960 3 4 Nowata County RWD #1 200 0 0 City of Collinsville 6670 3 5 Tulsa Metropolitan Water Authority 285450 128 199 City of Claremore 6675 3 5 Washington County RWD #3 4170 2 3 Town of Chelsea 1530 1 1 Not Under Contract 0 0 0 water supply storage 342600 154 238 environmental flow 93 Navigation 168000 81,3 126 Conservation storage 510600 235 457 Firm yield = 457 cfs ~ 13 m3/s 2. Application to drought risk systems • System definition • Introduction to Oologah Lake • Drought impact model • Drought event characterisation Water balance model Inflow Water balance model: • S(t) = S(t-1) + Inflow(t) – Outflow(t) • Lake level = f{S} • Start @ top conservation pool S Outflow Example inflow and lake level Water shortage Cost of water shortage Municipal water (City of Tulsa and many small counties) Recreation on the lake Industrial water Power supply (cooling water) Navigation Cost of trucking in water from Kaw reservoir: • 0.086 USD /m3/km • Distance = 290 km roundtrip • = 25 USD / m3 2. Application to drought risk systems • System definition • Introduction to Oologah Lake • Drought impact model • Drought event characterisation Drought events Aim: to provide a range of drought events with varying characteristics • Characterizing droughts • Selecting droughts • Historical drought • Future droughts • Theoretic droughts Definition of droughts Duration, Severity, Volume and Intensity Severity = Volume/Duration Example drought selection Criteria: Inflow < threshold OR InflowMA < threshold Monthly averaged inflow (m3/s) inflow Monthly averaged month index Example: historical drought • Design drought of 1952-1957 • Threshold = 13 m3/s Example: historical drought • Design drought of 1952-1957 Duration = 58 months • Threshold = 13 m3/s Severity = 4.8 m3/s 3 • Average inflow = 8.2 m3/s Intensity = 13 m /s Volume = 0.7 109 m3 Selection of future droughts •Data: 112 inflow time series, each 150 years •Selection criteria: 3 3 •Inflow < 13 m /s OR InflowMA< 13 m /s •Duration > 12 months 4000 Historical 3500 Climate 1 3000 Climate 2 2500 Climate 3 Climate 5 2000 1500 1000 Monthly average inflow (cfs) Monthly average inflow 500 0 1 13 25 37 49 Month # Overview of drought events 3. Robustness of Oologah water supply system Response curves Results Drought impact reduction Build pipeline (Tulsa Water Authority) Restrict personal water use during drought Prioritize among user types during drought Effect of impact reduction - pipeline Effect of impact reduction -restrictions Insights Robustness criteria: • Resistance threshold > Duration > 3 years (36 months) > Severity of >8 m3 > Volume of >1 m3 • Proportionality of the response • Gradual increase, but quite steep • Manageability/recovery threshold • ? (depends on economic capacity of the region) Insights Mechanisms behind resistance threshold: • Storage capacity of the reservoir • Actual use is less than issued in contracts • Restrictions? room for increasing resistance threshold Mechanisms behind proportionality: > Tulsa water authority has alternative source of supply > Smaller communities don’t Conclusions and follow-up Conclusions: • Theoretic events provide a way to find the resistance threshold • This threshold can best be expressed in terms of drought volume • There is room for increasing robustness more research needed Follow-up: • Cost for lack of cooling water • Capacity of pipeline • Statistics: to determine relevant range of drought events • Recovery thresholds and economic capacity: • When would people move to another area? • What level of impact is unacceptable? • Options to prioritize among users • Cost of navigation Thanks for your attention! .
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