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Valuatum Template INNOFACTOR Software/Finland, June 2, 2017 Company report Target: Leader in all Nordic countries Rating BUY We initiate coverage of Innofactor with “BUY” 1,8 recommendation and target price of EUR 1.85. Innofactor’s 1,6 acquisition driven growth phase is shifting towards a focus on 1,4 organic growth and improving margins. The outlook for the 1,2 Nordic IT-services market is healthy and improving economic 1 0,8 conditions support growth. Price/EUR 0,6 Microsoft growing, especially in cloud services 0,4 Microsoft’s strong position in enterprise solutions in combination 0,2 with a growing fragmented multibillion market provides a good 0 opportunity for Innofactor. Microsoft’s sales in global enterprise 06/12 06/13 06/14 06/15 06/16 06/17 solutions are estimated to grow at around 10 % 2018-2020E. Innofactor DJ STOXX 600 Shift from acquisition driven growth to organic growth Share price, EUR (Last trading 1.67 Innofactor has grown aggressively through acquisitions during day’s closing price) the past years, which has had an effect on profitability. The Target price, EUR 1.85 company has now built a pan-Nordic platform from which it Latest change in 2-June-17 aims to grow organically and focus on improving its profitability. We estimate Innofactor to grow at a 5.6 % CAGR between 2018- Latest report on company - 2020E. Research paid by issuer: YES No. of shares outstanding, 36,188 Synergies and mix to improve margins No. of shares fully diluted, 36,188 A key driver for improving profitability lies in Innofactor’s ability Market cap, EURm 60 to transition sales from low margin projects to higher margin Free float, %EUR 34.8 continuous services and to a greater extent being able to include Exchange rate - own software products and services in the offering. In addition Reuters code IFA1V.HE to the aforementioned, the company can achieve some cost Bloomberg code IFA1V FH synergies on group level from streamlining operations after acquisitions. We estimate the EBITDA-margin to reach 10 % in Average daily volume, EURm - 2018. Next interim report 01-Aug-17 Web site www.innofactor.fi We initiate coverage with “BUY” rating and TP of EUR 1.85 Our target price and recommendation is based on our DCF Analyst Jerker Salokivi, Jonas Forslund valuation and peer multiples. Our EV/EBITDA estimate of 11.0x E-mail [email protected] for 2017 is slightly above our Nordic peer group but our 2018 Telephone multiples are in line with peers. The value from our DCF model BUY HOLD SELL and the multiples imply a target price of EUR 1.85. KEY FIGURES Sales EBIT EBIT Ptx profit EPS P/E EV/Sales P/CF EV/EBIT DPS EURm EURm % EURm EUR (x) (x) (x) (x) EUR 2015 44 3 5.7% 2 0.04 26.0 1.0 8.3 17.4 0.00 2016 60 2 3.9% 2 0.04 25.8 0.9 11.2 23.3 0.00 2017E 70 4 5.5% 3 0.07 22.5 1.0 47.5 18.7 0.00 2018E 75 5 7.1% 5 0.11 15.5 0.9 11.2 12.8 0.00 2019E 79 6 7.8% 6 0.13 13.0 0.8 11.7 10.0 0.01 Market cap, EURm 60 BV per share 2017E, EUR 0.8 CAGR EPS 2016-19, % 42.2 Net debt 2017E, EURm 12 Price/book 2017E 2.0 CAGR sales 2016-19, % 9.9 Enterprise value, EURm 72 Dividend yield 2017E, % 0.0 ROE 2017E, % 10.3 Total assets 2017E, EURm 65 Tax rate 2017E, % 20.0 ROCE 2017E, % 9.4 Goodwill 2017E, EURm 28 Equity ratio 2017E, % 45.5 PEG, P/E 17/CAGR 0.9 All the important disclosures can be found on the last pages of this report. Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com 1(26) EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH INNOFACTOR Software/Finland, June 2, 2017 Company report Investment summary Leading Nordic Microsoft Innofactor is a leading Nordic IT-services company. The company’s core business is being solutions provider an integrator of Microsoft based solutions and the company has a leading position in the Nordic countries within its focus area. Innofactor also develops and sells own software products and solutions. Customers include commercial, public sector, and membership- based organizations in the Nordic countries. Innofactor employs 600 people and has offices in Finland, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway. Growth outlook for IT- The growth in the Nordic IT-services market during 2016 has been estimated at around services market improving 2-3 % and the growth is expected to pick up in 2017, with Innofactor estimating growth of around 3-4 %. The growth in certain areas within IT-services, such as the cloud, mobility, and analytics, are assumed to notably surpass the upper end of the estimated growth spectrum. IDC has projected an annual growth of 21 % in the Nordic public cloud services market until 2020. Microsoft’s enterprise Microsoft’s strong position in enterprise solutions in combination with a growing solutions growing, fragmented multibillion market provides a good opportunity for Innofactor. Microsoft’s especially cloud services sales in global enterprise solutions are estimated to grow at around 10 %. Microsoft is also at the forefront of developing A.I., machine learning and advanced analytics capabilities into its solutions, which provides a tailwind to service providers like Innofactor. Shift from acquisition Innofactor has grown aggressively through acquisitions during the past years, which has driven growth to organic had an effect on profitability. The company has now built a pan-Nordic platform from growth and margin which it aims to grow organically and focus on improving its profitability. We estimate improvement Innofactor to grow at a 5.6 % CAGR during 2018-2020E. Our sales growth estimates are based on the healthy outlook of the Nordic IT-services market and the aforementioned growth pockets within the market (e.g. cloud and digital leap), improving economic conditions favoring increased IT-investments, and the strong outlook for Microsoft’s enterprise solutions. Synergies and mix to A key driver for improving profitability lies in Innofactor’s ability to transition sales from improve margins low margin projects to higher margin continuous services and to a greater extent being able to include own software products and services in the offering. In addition to the aforementioned, the company can achieve some cost synergies on group level from streamlining operations after acquisitions. We estimate the EBITDA-margin to reach 10 % in 2018. Main risks to investment The main risks to our investment case are Innofactor failing to 1) improve mix between case projects and recurring revenue (including own products) 2) achieve planned synergies 3) to attract skilled professionals, and 4) Microsoft losing its leading position in enterprise space. BUY with target price of Our target price and recommendation is based on our DCF valuation and peer multiples. EUR 1.85 Our EV/EBITDA estimate of 11.0x for 2017 is slightly above our Nordic peer group but our 2018 multiples are in line with peers. The fair value from our DCF model and the multiples imply a target price of EUR 1.85. Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com 2(26) EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH INNOFACTOR Software/Finland, June 2, 2017 Company report Company and business overview Leading Nordic system Innofactor is a leading Nordic IT-services company. The company’s core business is being integrator within an integrator of Microsoft based solutions and the company has a leading position in the Microsoft-based solutions Nordic countries within its focus area. Innofactor also develops and sells own software products and solutions. Leading Nordic system Innofactor’s customers include over 1500 commercial, public sector, and membership- integrator within based organizations in the Nordic countries. Innofactor has offices in Finland, Sweden, Microsoft-based solutions Denmark, and Norway. Figure 1: Revenue by customers, country, and source (Q1/2017) Source: Innofactor, Evli Strong acquisition based As a result of a merger with Westend ICT, Innofactor listed on NASDAQ Helsinki in 2011. growth The strong growth of Innofactor before the merger has since continued, with an acquisition fuelled sales CAGR of 28.2 % from 2011-2016. Since 2011 seven acquisitions have been made, both in Finland and in other Nordic countries. Revenue in 2016 amounted to EUR 59.6m and the company now has over 600 employees. Improved geographical Innofactor operates in the Nordic IT-services market. In 2015, before the acquisitions of dispersion, Finland 54 % of Cinteros and Lumagate, Finland accounted for 82 % of sales and Denmark for 18 %. As a sales result of the acquisitions the geographical distribution has changed significantly and in the first quarter of 2017 Finland accounted for 54 % of sales and Sweden as the second largest country with 29 %. Denmark and Norway stood for 9 % and 8 % respectively. Innofactor SWOT-analysis Strengths Weaknesses • Pan-Nordic presence • Scalability historically • Strong offering with Microsoft • Project dependency focus • Risks associated with acquisitions • Growth track record, customer references Opportunities Threats • Increasing share of own products • Competition for skilled workers and services • Increases in personnel costs • • Scaling up through better sales mix Failing to capture synergies from acquisitions • Fragmented market • Digitalization trend • Failing to improve sales mix • Cross selling and business • Microsoft losing its position optimization Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com 3(26) EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH INNOFACTOR Software/Finland, June 2, 2017 Company report Business solution areas Microsoft technology at Innofactor’s core business is being an integrator of Microsoft-based systems.
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