sign in sign up
<<
Home , Borussia Dortmund, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League

SIMULATION 2019/20 Introduction

Football is back! The German will be The simulation delivers a season end scenario by the first major European league to resume action defining each club’s chances of finishing in the this upcoming weekend. To fuel the excitement, most relevant league positions (i.e. championship, Onefootball’s data and statistical specialists UCL/UEL Qualification, relegation). The method decided to run a simulator to predict how the rest uses the relative strengths of teams developed of the season could play out in the German over their 10 most recent home and away matches Bundesliga, the English , the Italian and is based on input data, such as goals scored/ and the Spanish . The simulation, conceded, shots on target and a processed using an algorithm specifically indicator. With over 155.000 simulations for each developed for this purpose, also features the league, the calculation provides a reliable French showing how the season could scientific prediction of the 2019/20 season. have panned out if it had not been abandoned.

2 About the Simulation Model

The Onefootball Simulation Model calculates the This simulation is then repeated until all potential results for all remaining matches in a outstanding matches of a season are simulated. league based on the 10 latest home and away This proprietary designed “Monte-Carlo matches of the two teams facing each other. Simulation” is then run more than 155k times for Based on these past results and the teams’ relative each league to define the most likely final league strengths (considering input data such as goals table and the teams’ percentage chance of scored/conceded, shots on target and home finishing in different positions (i.e. if Team A advantage indicator), the probabilities of each finishes at the top of the table in 97.500 of match outcome - either a win, draw or loss - are 150.000 simulations, the chance for Team A to win calculated using statistical distributions. the title is 65%).

Subsequently, a random generator picks an outcome for the match based on the given probabilities. Important to note: by using this method, the natural factor of randomness and uncertainty, which exists for each match, is considered. 3 PREMIER LEAGUE Who will win the Premier League?

100%

0% 0% 0% 0% City Leicester City Chelsea Manchester United

Liverpool will win the Premier League with 100% certainty. In over 150,000 simulations there was no case in which Liverpool did not win the title. Manchester City will most likely finish second followed by Leicester City and Chelsea

5 Who will qualify for the Champions League?

100% 99% 88%

50% 31%

Liverpool Manchester City Leicester City Chelsea Manchester United

Liverpool, Manchester City, Leicester and Chelsea will most likely qualify for the Champions League 2020/21. Manchester United still have a 31% chance to reach one of the top-four spots

6 Who will qualify for the Europa League?

24%

15% 11% 9% 9%

Manchester United Wanderers Sheffield United Tottenham Hotspur Arsenal

Manchester United have the highest probability to qualify for the UEFA Europa League followed by Wolves

7 Who will get relegated?

91% 71%

35% 47% 23% 28%

Brighton & Hove Albion Watford West Ham United Bournemouth Aston Villa City

Norwich will almost certainly be relegated with a probability of 91%. They are followed by Aston Villa (71%) and Bournemouth (47%). The relegation battle will be tight but West Ham (35%) and Watford (28%) are the most likely to escape

8 BUNDESLIGA Who will win the Bundesliga?

65%

16% 12% 5% 2%

FC Bayern München Borussia RB Borussia Mönchengladbach Bayer Leverkusen

Bayern have a 65% chance of winning the league followed by (16%); RB Leipzig (12%); Borussia Mönchengladbach; (5%) and BayerLeverkusen (2%)

10 Who will qualify for the Champions League?

99% 89% 86% 68% 56%

FC Bayern München Borussia Dortmund RB Leipzig Borussia Mönchengladbach Bayer Leverkusen

Bayern Munich (99%), Borussia Dortmund (89%), RB Leipzig (86%) and Borussia Mönchengladbach (68%) are the clubs with the best chance of securing one of the top-four league spots, which will ensure qualification for the Champions League. Leverkusen (56%) are likely to miss out.

11 Who will qualify for the Europa League?

42% 33%

17% 16% 15% 15% 3% 1%

B04 Leverkusen VFL Wolfsburg FC Schalke 04 1. FC Köln SC Freiburg TSG Hoffenheim Union Eintracht

Leverkusen and Wolfsburg have a 42% and 33% chance respectively to qualify for next season’s UEFA Europa League. Schalke,Köln, Freiburg and Hoffenheim are likely to miss out

12 Who will get relegated?

87% 79%

25% 6% 1% 2% Hertha BSC FC 05 Fortuna Düsseldorf SV Werder Bremen SC Paderborn 07

Paderborn have an 87% chance of getting relegated and will most likely finish at the bottom of the table. Werder Bremen have a 79% chance to get directly relegated and will most likely finish in 17th. They have a 14% chance of reaching the play-off spot. That spot will most likely go to Düsseldorf

13 LA LIGA Who will win La Liga?

58%

39%

1% 1% FC Real Sevilla Getafe

Barcelona have a 58% chance of win La Liga followed by Real Madrid who still have a 39% chance of securing this season’s title. They are followed by Sevilla and Getafe who have a less than 5% chance

15 Who will qualify for the Champions League?

99% 98%

59% 52% 41% 35% 7%

FC Barcelona Real Madrid Sevilla Getafe Sociedad Atletico Madrid

Barcelona and Real Madrid fans can be quite certain that their team will play Champions League football next season with Sevilla (59%) and Getafe (52%) having the highest chance to join them

16 Who will qualify for the Europa League?

40% 40% 34% 31% 23%

14% 12%

Atletico Madrid Sociedad Getafe Sevilla Valencia Villareal Granada

Atlético Madrid and have the same chance to qualify for the UEFA Europa League 2020/21, with one of the teams having to go through the play-offs. As Getafe and Sevilla will most likely qualify for the Champions League,Valencia and will challenge Atlético and Sociedad for a Europa League spot will be. The percentages show the cumulated probability to qualify either 5th or 6th in the table 17 Who will get relegated?

88%

68% 51%

31% 31% 4% 4% 20%

Osasuna Alaves Eibar Celta Vigo Real Mallorca Leganes Espanyol

The simulation shows that Espanyol have the highest probability (88%) to get relegated. Equally in danger are Real Mallorca (51%) and Leganes (68%). The data suggests that Celta Vigo and Eibar will manage to stay in LaLiga

18 SERIE A Who will win Serie A?

58%

38%

4% 0% Juventus Turin Lazio Inter Atalanta

Juventus have a 58% chance to win Serie A. Runners-up will most likely be Lazio. They, though, still have a 38% chance to win the title, which provides a situation for an exciting season finish. Inter have less than 10% chance to win the league title

20 Who will qualify for the Champions League?

100% 99% 97%

69%

29%

2% 1% Juventus Turin Lazio Inter Atalanta AS Roma Napoli Hellas

Lazio, Juventus, Inter and Atalanta will most likely finish in the top four spots, which will qualify them for the

UEFA Champions League. Roma have a 29% chance to secure one of these spots and are likely to miss out

21 Who will qualify for the Europa League?

60%

29% 19% 19% 17% 10%

AS Roma Napoli Hellas Verona AC Milan Parma Sassuolo

Roma are likely to miss out on the Champions League but they have a high probability (60%) of qualifing for the UEFA Europa League. Napoli are likely to secure the UEFA Europa League League play-off spot (8%), while Verona, Milan and Parma are expected to miss out on qualification for European competition. Percentages show the cumulated probability to qualify either 5th or 6th in the table. 22 Who will get relegated?

94% 82%

40% 34% 8% 15% 19% Genoa Sampdoria Torino Lecce SPAL Brescia

It is quite certain that Brescia will get relegated (94%) to , followed by SPAL (82%). Torino and Lecce will fight for 17th spot, which would mean another season in Serie A. It is not looking for Lecce, though

23 LIGUE 1 Who would have won Ligue 1?

99%

1% 0% 0% Paris Saint-Germain Olympique Stade Rennais

In all iterations of the simulation there was only 1% of all cases in which PSG did not win the title. As a result, their chances of winning the French title after 38 matchdays was extremely high (99%). Marseille would have been the only team with a theoretical chance of catching them 25 Who would have qualified for the Champions League?

100%

65%

24% 9%

Paris Saint-Germain Olympique Marseille Stade Rennais Lille

Marseille had the greatest chance (65%) to secure the second Champions League spot behind PSG, followed by Stade Rennes

26 Who would have qualified for the Europa League?

36% 23%

8% 7% 6% 5% 4%

Lille Rennes Olympique Marseille Olympique Lyon Nice Strasbourg Stade

Lille would have had the highest chance to qualify for UEFA Europa League. As Rennes and Marseille would have battled for Champions League, Lyon would have been Lille's biggest competitor

27 Who would have been relegated?

100%

67%

14% 7% 10% 1% Brest Dijon Saint-Etienne Nimes Amiens Toulouse

The simulation sees a 100% probability for Toulouse to be relegated. The second team to get directly relegated would have been Amiens (67%), while Nimes would have likely secured the play-off spot

28