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Swiss Watchmakers the Ideas Engine Series Showcases Credit Suisse’S Unique Insights and Investment Ideas

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Swiss Watchmakers the Ideas Engine Series Showcases Credit Suisse’S Unique Insights and Investment Ideas 14 March 2017 Europe/Switzerland Equity Research Luxury Goods Swiss Watchmakers The Ideas Engine series showcases Credit Suisse’s unique insights and investment ideas. SECTOR REVIEW Research Analysts Guillaume Gauvillé, CFA What could go wrong in the 'rebound' 44 207 888 0321 [email protected] ■ We reiterate our cautious view on the Swiss watch industry. While the Catherine Tillson market seems to be expecting a bounce in watch manufacturing in 2017, 44 20 7888 6052 [email protected] we believe the industry continues to face cyclical and structural challenges. Exports are off to a slow start (down 6% in January), the KOF Swiss Economic Institute survey suggests overcapacity persists and we think manufacturers have to tackle not only inventory issues but also a negative ASP development in the medium term. ■ New analysis provides new perspectives on the Swiss watch industry. Our proprietary work features (a) a detailed analysis of product launches for five brands covering half the Swiss watch industry which indicates that the average selling price at the retail level is likely to be negative, (b) a benchmark analysis with sell-in data which suggests the negative mix for the industry is yet to come at the wholesale level, (c) an excess inventory model which concludes that the stock overbuild in Asia remains but is marginally improving whilst the stock situation in the US has worsened, and (d) an innovative way to assess the inventory glut by brand using the average discount on watches when purchased on the grey market. ■ We rate both Swatch Group and Richemont Underperform. With >70% of watch sales being wholesale and >55% of sales coming from Asia, we are most negative on Swatch Group, chiefly on fundamentals. Most of its brands show more problematic inventory issues than peers. Our Swatch target price increases to SFr260 from SFr220 due to the time value factor and the rerating of luxury peers. We remain cautious on Richemont largely on valuation grounds. Our target price is unchanged at SFr65. Figure 1: Value chain for the Swiss watch industry SELL IN SELL THROUGH Proprietary excess inventory model for Asia and US Retailers Detailed channel Inventory buybacks checks in Asia and US analysis Manufacturers Consumers Proprietary analysis of product launches Grey market Proprietary analysis of average discount in the grey market Source: Credit Suisse research DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 14 March 2017 Key charts Figure 2: ASP at the retail level is coming down Figure 3: This suggests that mix should ultimately according to our proprietary product launch analysis start to become negative at the wholesale level Entry price points and ASP by brand and by launch date ASP development of Swiss watch exports 25,000 800 25% 700 20% 20,000 600 15% 15,000 500 10% 10,000 400 5% 300 5,000 0% 200 0 100 -5% Entry ASP Entry ASP Entry ASP Entry ASP Entry ASP Entry ASP price price price price price price 0 -10% Average Omega IWC Cartier Rolex Jaeger LeCoultre 1994 1995 1996 1993 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 New launches Existing ASP (in SFr, lhs) Y/Y % chg. (rhs) Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research Source: FHS, Credit Suisse research Figure 4: Our excess stock model shows that stock Figure 5: Our analysis of the grey market shows that overbuild remains in Asia but is not worsening the inventory glut is the highest for Swatch Group Estimated excess stocks in Asia Average discount on grey market online retailer Jomashop 1,800 100 50% 45% 1,600 90 40% 1,400 80 35% 70 1,200 30% 60 1,000 25% 50 800 20% 40 15% 600 30 10% 400 20 5% 200 10 0% 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Excess stocks (in SFrm, lhs) Excess stocks (in days, rhs) Average Source: FHS, Credit Suisse research Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research Figure 6: Swatch Group is already pricing in a Figure 7: Swatch Group and Richemont do not rebound in exports screen well under our EV/IC framework Swatch Group's share price vs. KOF Business Climate index 2018e EV/IC vs. RNOA/WACC 700 80 12.0 Hermes 60 10.0 600 R² = 96% 40 500 20 8.0 2018e 0 - 400 6.0 -20 300 -40 4.0 Cucinelli Ferragamo -60 (adjusted) / IC EV Richemont LVMH Burberry 200 2.0 Kering Hugo Boss -80 Swatch Tod's 100 -100 - 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Swatch Group share price (SFr, lhs) KOF Business climate (3-m moving average, rhs) ROIC / WACC (adjusted) - 2018e Source: KOF Swiss Economic Institute, FHS, Credit Suisse research Source: Credit Suisse estimates Swiss Watchmakers 2 14 March 2017 Table of contents Key charts 2 What could go wrong in the 'rebound' 4 Setting the scene ...................................................................................................... 4 New analysis provides new perspectives ................................................................. 6 Negative mix yet to be seen 7 The way we think brands are adapting their offer .................................................... 7 Looking for empirical evidence ................................................................................. 7 IWC Schaffhausen ................................................................................................... 9 Jaeger-LeCoultre .................................................................................................... 10 Cartier ..................................................................................................................... 11 Rolex ...................................................................................................................... 12 Omega .................................................................................................................... 13 The price/mix conundrum in sell-in numbers ......................................................... 14 Stock levels in the channel 17 A recap on sell-through .......................................................................................... 17 Marginal improvement in stock levels .................................................................... 21 Industry responds with inventory swaps ................................................................ 24 A closer look at discounts within the grey market .................................................. 25 The way we approach valuation 27 Swatch Group (UHR.S) 29 Charting the story ................................................................................................... 31 Financials ............................................................................................................... 32 Valuation ................................................................................................................. 33 Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA 35 Charting the story ................................................................................................... 37 Divisional assumptions ........................................................................................... 38 Valuation ................................................................................................................. 39 The authors of this report wish to acknowledge the contribution made by Maya Mahadevan, an employee of CRISIL Global Research and Analytics, a business division of CRISIL Limited, a third-party provider of research services to Credit Suisse. Swiss Watchmakers 3 14 March 2017 What could go wrong in the 'rebound' Setting the scene The general assumption appears to be that the downturn for the Swiss watch industry is over. The share prices for both Swatch Group and Richemont have rallied c.30% in the last six months and outperformed their peers by 5%. The sell side has turned slightly less bearish on these two names with now 9/30 analysts having a sell rating on Swatch Group and only 3/34 for Richemont. A growing number of clients we have met in the last few months have also turned less pessimistic on the Swiss watch industry. We believe five factors have contributed towards this regained optimism leading to the share price rally: 1. Improving sales for Richemont in the three months to December. Richemont reported 3Q17 group organic sales up +5% improving from -12% in 1H17. While jewellery was the main driver of the improvement, watch retail sales seemed to be rising and wholesale had become less negative. 2. A recovery in Chinese demand for luxury goods. There are now tangible signs that Chinese demand is picking up after 3-4 years of relative austerity marked by the anti- corruption campaign initiated in 2013 and the stock market correction in 2015. If we take Louis Vuitton as a proxy for Chinese luxury goods demand, LVMH reported that sales in the Chinese market grew strong double digits in 2H16 after being flat in 1H and rising mid-single digits in 2013, 2014 and 2015. 3. Bullish 2017 guidance from Swatch Group. During the 2016 results conference call, CEO Nick Hayek stated that he expects organic sales to grow +7% to +10%
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