NEWSLETTER

issued by the Council of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs Nobel Peace Prize 1995

The Iranian Nuclear Issue

Volume 43 ½ Number 1 ½ June 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS

TO THE PUGWASH COMMUNITY: ...... 1

REPORTS ON RECENT PUGWASH WORKSHOPS

Pugwash meeting no. 311...... 3 23rd Workshop of the Pugwash Study Group on the Implementation of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Convention: Achieving a successful outcome of the Sixth Review Conference Geneva, Switzerland, 3-4 December 2005

Pugwash meeting no.313...... 13 4th Pugwash Workshop on Stability, Security and Cooperation in Northeast Asia Beijing, China, 12-15 January 2006

Pugwash Meeting no. 314 ...... 17 Pugwash Workshop on Prospects for Self-Governance in Jammu & Kashmir Islamabad, Pakistan, 10-12 March 2006

Pugwash Meeting no. 315 ...... 25 Pugwash Workshop on Security Architecture in the Horn of Africa Nairobi, Kenya, 17-19 March 2006

Pugwash meeting no. 316 ...... 31 4th Pugwash Workshop on Threats without Enemies; HIV/AIDS: Sharing of Experiences, What Works? Chennai, India, 7-9 April, 2006

Pugwash meeting no.317...... 35 International Conference on Iraq and Regional Stability and Iran’s Nuclear Energy Program: Policies and Prospects—A Joint Conference of the Pugwash Conferences and the Center for Strategic Research, Tehran Tehran, Iran, 24-25 April 2006

Pugwash meeting no. 318 ...... 42 24th Workshop of the Study Group on Implementation of the Chemical and Pugwash Biological Weapons Conventions: Achieving a Successful Outcome of the Second CWC Review Volume 43 ½ Number 1 Noordwijk, The Netherlands, 13-14 May 2006 June 2006 Pugwash meeting no. 320 ...... 47 Editor: Pugwash Workshop on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament: Jeffrey Boutwell The Role of Europe Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 7-8 June 2006 Research Assistant: Celeste LeRoux SPECIAL SECTION ...... 52 Papers from the Pugwash Study Group: Design and Layout: Threats without enemies: The security aspects of HIV/AIDS Anne Read NATIONAL PUGWASH GROUPS Printing: Russian Pugwash Group ...... 74 Cardinal Press Fredericksburg, Virginia REPORT FROM INTERNATIONAL STUDENT/YOUNG PUGWASH ...... 76

OBITUARIES COVER : Iran’s nuclear negotiator, Iwao Ogawa, Robert Reford ...... 77 Dr. Ali Larijani, at the Pugwash/CSR conference, April 2006 Members of the Pugwash Council ...... 79

PHOTO: Jeffrey Boutwell Calendar of Future Meetings ...... inside back cover To the Pugwash Community

Continuing Challenges to Nuclear Non- 50th Anniversary of the Pugwash Proliferation and Middle East Stability Conferences in 2007 The first half of 2006 witnessed continuing sectarian vio- Plans have also been underway for some time to commem- lence and domestic insurgency in Iraq and the inability of orate in 2007 the 50th anniversary of the first Pugwash Iran and the international community to find a politically conference, held at Cyrus Eaton’s Thinker’s Lodge in Pug- acceptable means for ensuring adequate transparency and wash, Nova Scotia in July 1957. A workshop on Revitaliz- confidence that Iran’s nuclear technology program would ing Nuclear Disarmament is scheduled to be held at not be diverted to military purposes. To that end, the Pug- Thinker’s Lodge from 5-7 July 2007, along with events wash Conferences and the Center for Strategic Research in planned by the Pugwash Peace Exchange and the Pugwash Tehran co-sponsored an international conference in April Parks Commission. In October 2007, the 57th Pugwash 2006 covering both Iran’s nuclear energy program and the Conference in Bari, Italy will provide an opportunity for a equally important issue of Iraq and regional stability (see major retrospective of fifty years of Pugwash efforts to p. 35). Unfortunately, little progress was made on either reduce and eliminate nuclear, chemical and biological issue, whether at the conference or by the international weapons and discussions of Pugwash strategies for realiz- community. When added to the continuing stalemate in ing these objectives in the future. Many national Pugwash the Palestinian-Israeli peace process occasioned by the groups will also be holding commemorative events of the election of a Hamas government, the outlook for Middle 50th Pugwash anniversary, information on which will be East stability could not have been more bleak. regularly posted on the Pugwash website.

56th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Pugwash Study Group: Affairs—Cairo Threats without Enemies: The Security Accordingly, these and other major challenges to security Aspects of HIV/AIDS th in the Middle East will be the focus of the 56 Pugwash In February 2004, nine specialists on various aspects of Conference on Science and World Affairs - A Region in HIV/AIDS met in a private house in Betty’s Bay, near Cape Transition: Peace and Reform in the Middle East, taking Town, South Africa, to map out plans for a long-term Pug- place in Cairo, Egypt from 10-15 November 2006. Under wash Study Group that would study the security implica- the direction of Pugwash Council member Mohamed tions of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in various settings Kadry Said, and with the help of Ambassadors Mohamed around the world. Led by the chair of the Pugwash Coun- Shaker and Mohamed Ezzeldine Abdel Moneim and other cil, Marie Muller, and Nola Dippenaar (South Africa) and members of the Egyptian Pugwash group, efforts have Gwyn Prins (UK), that first meeting led to three more spe- been underway for more than a year to invite senior poli- cialized HIV/AIDS workshops (two in South Africa and cymakers and other specialists from throughout the Mid- one in India, hosted by Pugwash President M.S. Swami- dle East, and internationally, to join Pugwash in Cairo. nathan at his institute in Chennai) and a joint workshop in th Plenary sessions and working groups at the 56 Pugwash Corsica with the Pugwash Study Group on Science, Ethics Conference will focus on such topics as nuclear non-prolif- and Society. eration generally and weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East in particular; the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Islam and the West; and the future of Iraq.

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 1 With funding from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the The Study Group represented the best of the Pugwash tra- participation of medical, military, security, policy, and cor- dition of bringing solid science to bear on important pol- porate specialists, the Study Group produced an impres- icy issues, and several of the papers written for Study sive body of analysis and reports that had a marked influ- Group meetings can be found in the Special Section, on ence on the policy debate over HIV/AIDS in South Africa, p. 52. while also contributing to a substantive sharing of experi- ences with colleagues from India and East Africa at the Acknowledgments Chennai conference. It also happened during the evolution For continued support of the Pugwash Newsletter, we are of the Study Group that Gwyn Prins co-authored (with grateful to the Italian National Research Council, the Ger- Tony Barnett) a major report for the United Nations, man Research Society, the John D. and Catherine T. HIV/AIDS and Security: Fact, Fiction and Evidence – A MacArthur Foundation, and the Cyrus Eaton Foundation. Report to UNAIDS (September 2005).

JEFFREY BOUTWELL, EDITOR

Thinker’s Lodge, Pugwash, Nova Scotia.

2 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2005 PUGWASH MEETING NO. 311

23rd Workshop of the Pugwash Study Group on the Implementation of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Convention: Achieving a successful outcome of the Sixth Review Conference Geneva, Switzerland, 3–4 December 2005

and also received an update on Report by United Nations Security Council C. A. McLeish Resolution 1540 (2004). In addition to these reports on developments out- side the BWC during the previous his was the twenty-third of year, the main items for discussion by the current Pugwash work- the workshop came under the rubric shop series on chemical and T of achieving a successful outcome at biological warfare and the twelfth to the Sixth Review Conference includ- be held in Geneva. The workshop ing: what might constitute a success- was hosted by the Swiss Pugwash ful outcome and what needs to be Group, and was jointly convened by done to achieve a successful outcome. the Harvard Sussex Program on In looking beyond the Sixth Review Chemical and Biological Weapons Conference, the workshop discussed (HSP). More than fifty-nine people action plans and topics for future attended the workshop, by invitation Intersessional Meetings. and in their personal capacities, from 21 countries: Australia, Belgium, Review Conference of the Conven- CWC Progress and Brazil, Canada, China, Finland, tion on the Prohibition of the Devel- Implementation France, Germany, India, Ireland, opment, Production and Stockpiling A report was given on the status of Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New of Bacteriological (Biological) and implementation of the Chemical Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Russian Toxin Weapons and on their Destruc- Weapons Convention including Federation, Sweden, Switzerland, the tion (the BWC)—and at a moment updates in relation to chemical United Kingdom (UK), and the when the situation in arms control weapons destruction and CWPF United States of America (US). This and non proliferation was not destruction and/or conversion; verifi- report of the workshop is the sole encouraging. It was observed that the cation overview; action plans; and responsibility of its author, who was international community, including education and outreach. Other items asked by the meeting to prepare a Pugwash, needs to participate in a touched upon included verification short report in consultation with the common search for answers. system optimization, international Steering Committee. It does not nec- The focus of the workshop was cooperation, assistance & protection essarily reflect a consensus of the the Sixth Review Conference of the and institutional issues such as the re- workshop as a whole, or of the Study BWC although it was noted that the election of the Director-General, the Group. third Intersessional Meeting of States establishment of the working group The meeting opened with a wel- Parties was due to open in Geneva on to prepare for the 2nd CWC Review come from the Swiss Pugwash Group 5th December 2005, the day follow- Conference, and the report by the and the observation that this work- ing the close of the workshop. The Director-General, due by mid 2006, shop was occurring at a critical workshop received its regular report evaluating the effects of tenure-policy moment—one year until the 6th on CWC progress in implementation implementation.

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Since the last report to the work- Article VII implementation by the In the year since the last update to the shop destruction figures for chemical tenth session (7-11 November 2005). workshop, the speaker reported that weapons agent tonnes and items, At that tenth meeting the action plan good progress had been made—since including munitions and containers, was reviewed and considered basi- October 2004 seven new states par- stands at some 12,200 agent tonnes cally a success because the number of ties had joined the CWC and it is out of a declared total of 71,400 and countries working on national legis- hoped that Iraq will join the CWC in 2,375,105 items out of a total of lation had increased. However, con- the next year. It was noted that the 8,671,564 (as of end of October cerns about CWC national imple- OPCW has no regional offices and 2005). Whilst destruction of chemical mentation remains—the main has no plans to establish them so weapons production facilities is on concern being the numbers of States much of the universality work track, the workshop was told that Parties without legislation, or with depends on its relationship with conversion of facilities has been major gaps in their legislation, but regional organisations such as EU, delayed for reasons such as the EC with significant chemical activities in AU, PIF, OAS, ASEAN. It was decision-making processes and Libya production, trade, or use. reported that the OPCW is working entering the regime as a latecomer. In recognition of this ongoing actively in the African region and that The workshop was reminded that concern the workshop was informed an exception to the ‘no regional conversion of such facilities was orig- that it was decided at the tenth ses- office’ stance might be made for this inally seen as an exception but is now sion of the Conference of the States region. It was reported that communi- applied to approximately one third of Parties to adopt a series of follow-up cation channels with the Arab League all declared production facilities. measures focused on improving are now open but that there was still With regard to verification, the implementation. For those States Par- no progress regarding North Korea. workshop was informed that, as of ties without a national authority and Regarding international co-opera- end October 2005, some 2256 legislation, the Technical Secretariat tion the workshop was told that at inspections had taken place compris- has requested them, by the end of the tenth session of the Conference of ing of 124,479 inspector days. Over 2005, to submit an implementation States Parties a decision had been 70 percent of the total number of plan with target dates. The Technical adopted on Article XI implementa- inspector days have been at Chemical Secretariat in turn is now required to tion. The issue of Article XI imple- Weapons Destruction Facilities report to each Executive Council ses- mentation has remained unresolved despite there being only 43 such facil- sion on the status of implementation. since the PrepCom era so achieving a ities declared to the OPCW by six Should full implementation not be decision on this issue should be seen States Parties. An opinion was fulfilled by the 47th session of the as confirming progress. Some of the expressed that the CWC requires Executive Council in November main elements of the decision out- these facilities to be under verifica- 2006, or notification of steps submit- lined to the workshop included: con- tion at all times. Such a verification ted to the Technical Secretariat, the firming the current portfolio of the demand has resource implications if Executive Council will consult with TS ICA programmes; encouraging efforts to increase the pace of those States Parties before a final States Parties to develop cooperation destruction are not matched with an review, scheduled to take place at the projects; exchange scientific/technical increase in inspectorate size. eleventh session of the Conference of information; chemicals & equipment The report then turned its atten- the States Parties in December 2006, and offers of cooperation; encourag- tion to the Action Plan on National decides whether any appropriate ing further programme development; Implementation of Article VII. It was measures should be taken to ensure and avoiding duplication of efforts noted that the plan was based on a full implementation. by other International Organisations. recommendation from the First Turning to the universality action The workshop was told that this Review Conference (28 April–9 May plan adopted by the Executive Coun- decision still left many issues unre- 2003) and adopted by the Confer- cil at its twenty-third meeting (Octo- solved—for example, for some States ence of the States Parties at its eighth ber 2003), the speaker noted that it Parties the main obstacles to Article session (20-24 October 2003). The “was inspired by the idea” of full uni- XI implementation remain trade reg- target adopted then was to have full versality of the Convention by 2007. ulations and the Australia Group.

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There are also divergent views as to change. Regarding the balances in between those inside the treaties and how much international cooperation verification efforts, it was suggested those outside of them. However, programmes should be implemented that changes can take place without because the focus of Resolution 1540 by the OPCW, and how much by changes to the Convention. It was is terrorism there is pressure upon States Parties. suggested that the current verification even small states to adhere strictly to One of the areas of interest to the effort is not properly supported and, the resolution so that terrorists can- workshop was the matter of educa- because verification was a basic pro- not exploit them. tion and outreach. The workshop vision of the Convention, lack of sup- It was suggested to the workshop was told of the joint efforts with port constituted a serious problem. that the respective organizations of IUPAC on how to integrate CWC It was also noted that the ten-year the WMD treaties might wish to requirements into professional codes destruction deadline will not be met. explore the full possibilities and of ethics/conduct and how to inte- Although not questioning the need to opportunities offered by Resolution grate CWC awareness and knowl- extend that deadline to 15 years, 1540. It was thought there some edge about its implementation into questions were raised about the para- pressures existed that might lead to chemistry education. In October meters of the decision that the Con- the possibilities offered by Resolution 2005 the material produced by vention would necessitate. Several 1540 being squandered. These IUPAC was piloted at a conference in participants asked whether this include a lack of experts from devel- Moscow. The next pilot will occur in would be a one-time-only extension oping countries; indifference or lack Seoul in June 2006. or would States Parties to the Con- of support in capitals; and placing A further area of interest to the vention be forced to consider a new too much expectation on this mea- workshop was the advancement in deadline if that extended deadline is sure whilst it is still new and fragile. technology relevant to the Conven- not met. Participants also expressed The workshop was told that the tion. It was suggested that more concern that the Convention would greatest threat to Resolution 1540 attention needs to be given to the non be undermined if a second extension was bureaucratic: that 1540 would lethal weapons issue. Concern was was requested because several thou- be swallowed up into other counter expressed that asking whether a new sand tonnes of agent remained in terrorism proposals and be merged technology was covered or not could tact. It was asked whether it was time with the other UNSC committees to be eroding the norm contained in the to revisit the definition of ‘destruc- form some sort of super committee Convention. Although acknowledged tion’ so that a second extension will on counter terrorism. as a delicate issue, several partici- not be requested. The workshop was informed that pants recommended that an informal Argentina had held a Resolution UNSCR 1540 (2004) discussion process ought to be initi- 1540 workshop in September of this ated now. It was believed that such a The workshop was reminded that year and that a further workshop will process need not necessarily be done United Nations Security Council Res- be held in China next April. It seems under the auspices of the OPCW. olution 1540 put the United Nations clear that the mandate of the resolu- In addition to the more general in the front line of arms control tion will be extended beyond 2006 so report on the OPCW, the workshop efforts again. Since UNSCR 1540 achieving that extension will be the also received a paper on what next came into force, the 1540 Committee next hurdle. for the OPCW. It was noted that in has received 124 responses, of which The workshop agreed that Reso- principle the CWC regime was in bet- 35 have been followed up. Of the 67 lution 1540 has been a useful tool in ter health than the other regimes states that have thus far failed to raising awareness about the WMD dealing with WMD and that the pro- respond, most are in the African, problem and in mobilizing State Par- gramme on universality and national Caribbean and Pacific regions. The ties to work on or pass national implementation was impressive. The power of UNSCR 1540, the work- implementation legislation. However, issue of national implementation, the shop was reminded, is that it applies participants noted that the measure workshop was reminded, will con- to both State Parties of the BWC, and has also caused problems, such as tinue to be an agenda item because also to non State Parties: indeed its State Parties prioritising Resolution situations and environments will measures do not differentiate 1540 reports over their other treaty

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obligations. It was thought that this tion to offer assistance (whether An historical note problem was caused by State Parties directly or indirectly) do so; The workshop received an historical not understanding that 1540 obliga- • Pursuing the universalization and note examining the tension between tions should have already been met strengthening of the BWC; the taboo against germ weapons and by being a member of one of the • Ensuring the effective national the institutional norms of government WMD treaties—indeed those State implementation of the provisions of secrecy which can be seen to have Parties that are already in the CWC the BWC; been present during the offensive BW and BWC are already obliged to programmes in the 20th century. • Developing more effective coopera- enact Resolution 1540 priorities. The historical note reminded the tion and enhancing dialogue As states will be reviewing their workshop that at the same time as amongst States as a means of obligations under both the BWC and prosecuting defeated fascist leaders addressing the proliferation of bio- Resolution 1540 during 2006 the for crimes against humanity and for logical and toxin weapons; workshop considered how the BWC conducting a war of aggression in and 1540 could and should interact • Improving awareness-raising activi- Nuremberg, Allied Forces were sup- in the future to achieve a more effec- ties for industry and the general pressing evidence of identical crimes tive non-proliferation framework. public; and at the Toyko war crimes trial. It was Despite the complementary • Regularly reviewing the regimes to suggested that this was because US nature of the two approaches, the facilitate any decisions necessary to intelligence and military officials were workshop was reminded that certain strengthen their activities. brokering a secret amnesty agreement practical differences in their imple- with Japanese biological weapons sci- It was suggested that the future evo- mentation make the two very differ- entists to protect them from war lution of Resolution 1540 might ent animals. For example, there is a crimes prosecution—these scientists include assessing the legislative com- fundamental difference in the scope had been responsible for inhumane pleteness of states’ replies, harmoniz- of the two regimes and in who is research on Chinese civilians and oth- ing regulations between countries legally bound by their provisions. It ers and for repeated attacks on Chi- (e.g. harmonization of national con- was thought though that within those nese cities and towns with lethal and trol lists) and harmonizing legal juris- differences lay a certain degree of debilitating disease agents. dictions. overlap in both purpose and aim. In discussion the workshop was The workshop was reminded that Both, for example, contain similar informed that many interviews were at present, there is no implementing language and are founded on an now being conducted in China about body or organization in place to sup- international norm against the this period and that over 20 books port the work of the BWC that is weaponization of disease (although (in Chinese) had been written on the comparable to the OPCW or the where the BWC proscribes these subject. The workshop was also IAEA. It was suggested that this lack weapons in their entirety, the UNSC informed that the former offensive of institutional presence may be a sig- Resolution 1540 proscriptions only programme was still a taboo subject nificant barrier to the integration of apply to non-state actors). By com- in Japan and that consequently dis- the BWC with other control mecha- paring key elements of Resolution cussions about its nature or conse- nisms, including Resolution 1540, 1540 with texts from the BWC, the quences do not take place. It was sug- and that this complicates the devel- workshop was reminded that there is gested that not having these opment of any ongoing relationships. a confluence in the activities pursued discussions hampers the current The authors of the report told the under the two regimes. These include development of Japanese thoughts on workshop that they believed that • Endorsing activities to create or disease protection. It was also given the confluence of activities, strengthen mechanisms for regulat- claimed that the Japanese govern- there was a clear need to develop an ing access to certain technologies ment still has documents about Unit operational mechanism for the BWC and resources; 731 which it refuses to release and to cooperate with the 1540 Commit- that such actions prevent this period • Enhancing implementation assis- tee so that duplication of efforts can from being laid to rest. tance so that those States in a posi- be avoided and benefits maximised.

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The workshop noted that there reinforce the importance of ensuring, example, that the proposals aired was much contemporary relevance through national measures, the effec- were thus far based on what was for this historical study. The paper tive fulfilment of obligations under politically possible now in 2005, and highlighted for example the unusual the Convention in order to exclude centred on today’s issues of concern. and complex circumstances in which use of biological and toxin weapons The opinion was mooted that State national security rationales can justify in terrorist or criminal activity and it Parties need to ask where they wish deviance from widely accepted was suggested that this might be done the BWC to stand in 10 years time, humanitarian norms. The workshop through the adoption of a series of or at the 10th Review Conference. noted that national security has its action plans on universal adherence, Are, for example, annual meetings a own norms based on protection of the universal national implementation, long-term goal for the Convention or state through the pursuit of military and the adoption of measures to just something to see State Parties or military-related advantage. How- enhance the submission of CBM through the immediate future? It was ever, the culture of secrecy that often returns by all State Parties. suggested that perhaps one reason for surrounds national security activities the lack of ambition in the proposals runs counter to the fundamentally is that few in any of the delegations It was proposed that State Parties humanitarian enterprise of studying will have ever been present for a full and controlling infectious disease out- needed to reinforce the importance review of the Convention. breaks from any source. It was sug- It was suggested to the workshop of ensuring, through national gested that secrecy would actually that any proposal to strengthen the increase the health risks to the public measures, the effective fulfilment BWC rests on its broader political because countering outbreaks relies appeal and that given the crowded of obligations under the Convention on timely and accurate information in political agenda during 2006 efforts order to make appropriate safe deci- in order to exclude use of biological to prevent the spread of biological sions about medical intervention. weapons and to strengthen the BWC and toxin weapons in terrorist or are unlikely to be at the top of the The Sixth BWC Review criminal activity agenda unless a lot of effort is Conference expended putting it there. What would be a successful outcome? Comment was made that there 3. Achieving a successful outcome Much discussion during the work- was a need to avoid sending the same A. The Preparatory Committee– shop centred on what might consti- message as the Nuclear Non Prolifer- what needs to be achieved? tute a successful outcome of the ation Treaty Review Conference i.e. In respects of the preparation of the upcoming Sixth Review Conference. that something was seriously wrong. Review Conference, the workshop For some, success would be defined It was thought that this Review Con- received the suggestion that the Prep- by State Parties realizing tangible ference ought to do something useful. Com for the 6th Review Conference products such as a comprehensive On the issue of reaffirming past com- ought to last for a whole week so review of the operation of the Con- mitments the workshop was asked that State Parties have time to vention; a Final Declaration with what message might be sent if no reaf- consider issues under the general reaffirmations and extended under- firmation could be agreed this time? headings: standings such as a reaffirmation that Some participants felt that there was • Date and duration; prohibitions embrace all scientific no need to make these reaffirmations and technological advances; a reaffir- arguing that once something has been • Provisional agenda; mation that possibility of use is agreed then it remains so. • Draft rules of procedure; excluded completely and forever; and The workshop considered • Background documentation; a reaffirmation that Article III is suf- whether the proposals being made • Publicity; and ficiently comprehensive to cover any for next year’s BWC Review Confer- recipient whatsoever. It was also pro- ence might be based on an unduly • Final document(s). posed that State Parties needed to limited approach. It was thought, for

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In terms of date and duration of the B. The Outcomes of the ference organized by the Interna- Review Conference the workshop Intersessional Process—how to deal tional Form on Biosecurity (Como, was reminded that as this is to be the with these? 20-22 March 2005) and the recent first time since 1991 that a full In respect of the outcomes of the Inter Academy Panel Statement on review of the Convention is to take intersessional process, the workshop Biosecurity. place then it should last three weeks. was reminded that the Sixth Review Both reports recognised that the It was agreed however, that if suffi- Conference will consider the work of issue of codes of conduct was not cient consultation had taken place the intersessional meetings and new, one participant recalled that at prior to the PrepCom then this sug- decide on any further action. It was the Third Review Conference in 1991 gested one week period of meeting thought that State Parties might con- the Council for Responsible Genetics for the PrepCom could be reduced. sider all the meetings together under organised an oath which was similar It was suggested to the workshop one agenda item or consider each of to what is now being discussed. Fur- that, if it was intended that this the five topics under the appropriate thermore it was also noted that calls Review Conference be deliberately Article(s) of the Convention—so that had been made in 1992 for postdoc- different from the preceding one, a national measures to implement will toral students to be the focus of such different mandate to the Secretariat be discussed under Article IV; codes because of the spread of post- might be needed. It was suggested docs within the academic community that there was much value in the Sec- and the scientific industries. How- retariat undertaking specific pieces of Discussions about codes have ever, the importance of codes for all work between the PrepCom and the turned out to be more complicated engaged in the life sciences was also actual Review Conference. Whilst the recognised. topics for such papers and the extent than initially expected. The observation was made that of those pieces of work are matters to discussions about codes have turned be decided by the States Parties, it out to be more complicated than ini- was suggested that in addition to the national biosecurity measures dis- tially expected: regarded as a simple three background documents nor- cussed during the review of Articles exercise, issues concerning definitions, mally prepared for Review Confer- III & IV; investigation & response to scope and legalities have proved more ences (participation in CBMs, com- alleged use when Articles VI & VII complicated than anticipated. For pliance by States Parties, and are discussed, disease surveillance example, whilst participants fully information on scientific and techno- when Article X is reviewed and accepted that scientists ought to be logical advances) State Parties might finally codes of conduct under Article guardians of their own work, partici- consider additional background doc- IV discussions. pants debated whether that meant a uments detailing information on Under the topic of codes of con- purely self-governing system exclud- actions taken by States Parties fol- duct, the workshop heard two ing the possibility of external criti- lowing MSP/2003, MSP/2004 & reports from participants interested cism. Some believed that rather than MSP/2005 and specifically focused in the role that ought to be played by leave this important oversight work papers on the possible modalities for scientists in the guardianship of their to scientists alone, oversight commit- measures such as Action Plans, trans- work. The first report addressed tees were needed to scrutinize the parency and CBMs, etc. whether the time has come to formu- work of scientists. It was argued that Although there was a recognized late guidelines, perhaps in the form of representatives of many constituen- limit on what the Secretariat can do a voluntary Hippocratic oath, for the cies, not simply the scientific commu- that is both substantial and innova- ethical conduct of work performed nity, ought to sit on these committees tive, the workshop participants did by life scientists and the second and review individual experiments or think that such additional background report summarised the recent interna- programmes of work before the documents would greatly assist in the tional biosecurity efforts involving experiments have begun. necessary collective preparation for the U.S. National Academy of Sci- On the issue of whistle blowing it this Review Conference. ences, including a report from a con- was suggested that any code ought to

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include some form of words that offer needs to be addressed; and the second emerged from the 2003 meetings encouragement to those who wish to issue concerned a potential paradigm about national implementation, the come forward to report deviations shift being indicated by the new workshop was told, needed to be fur- from the accepted standards of behav- research agendas. Concern was ther developed before the Review iour and show that adequate protec- expressed that together these two Conference so that something mean- tion will be offered to them. It was issues might result in the dual use ingful could be done with it. For noted that the global coalition against dilemma being raised to a new level example, the suggestion was made corruption ‘Transparency Interna- of complexity. Looking beyond the that a modular approach was needed tional’ has developed some thoughts Sixth Review Conference, both whereby an action plan was backed on the issue of whistle blowing and reports suggested that more frequent by an implementation support unit the protection needed, although better analysis and review of science and which itself fed into a legal advisors wording than presented there would technology advances was needed. network. This latter network was be needed for BW issues. Participants believed that scientific considered to be one way of co-ordi- Both reports stressed the need sig- and technological advances were nating assistance by states and NGOs nificantly to increase efforts to edu- occurring too rapidly for a meaning- and of also gaining experience from cate scientists about the nature of the ful assessment to take place only at other treaties. The workshop was risks associated with dual-use biolog- five-year intervals. reminded that there was no one way ical and chemical technologies and There was debate amongst partic- to approach such co-ordination activ- the responsibilities of scientists to ipants at this workshop about the ities because political matchmaking address and manage those risks. It recommendation put forward in both as well as legal-system matchmaking was suggested that such awareness- reports that States Parties to the and language matchmaking was raising courses could take place at the BWC should consider reaffirming required for effective implementation university level, and that any univer- that the prohibitions contained in the assistance. sities which undertake to teach such BWC covered all scientific and tech- The idea that State Parties might courses ought to be rewarded. At the nological advances. As before, some consider implementing an action plan very least these courses need to make participants voiced their concern that using the OPCW’s Action Plan on it clear that scientists have obliga- continual reaffirmations about com- national implementation as a model tions under national and interna- mitments or obligations previously was discussed by the workshop. Par- tional law. made might be construed as a neces- ticipants were reminded that it took 6 sary activity before those prohibi- months from the decision being made C: Key Elements of the Sixth Review tions are placed upon the new scien- by the Executive Council to the Conference tific or technological advancement. action plan existing. It was suggested The workshop received a number of For example, it was noted that then that an informal consultation reports concerning key elements of although nanotechnology is a ‘new’ process was needed which might con- the Sixth Review Conference. Topics technology it is already covered sider issues such as objectives and cri- covered included: advances in science under the General Purpose Criterion teria for such plans in the BWC con- and technology relevant to the BWC; contained in Article I. text; the evaluation procedures at the national implementation; consulta- Participants were reminded that end of such plans; and time frames tion and co-operation including this General Purpose Criterion applies for such plans. CBMS; international co-operation to all science and technology advances Agreeing on an action plan for and development and universality. and that all participants need to be universality was considered as some- Concerning the issue of advanc- vigilant against deviant interpreta- thing uncontroversial which the ing science and technology, the work- tions. It was also suggested that time States Parties at the 6th Review Con- shop received two reports and was spent reaffirming commitments and ference might be able to adopt. forewarned about two issues. The prohibitions could be spent reviewing Indeed it was suggested at the work- first, that the increasing multidiscipli- other aspects of the Convention. shop that it might be possible to link nary dimensions of scientific work The useful information that that action plan with other activities

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 9 Pugwash Meeting No. 311

such as joint missions and workshops example, under the CWC schedule 1 pants: how does one get more partici- and civil society collaborations. The and 2 chemicals are not allowed to be pation in the CBM process? How workshop was told that new exported to non CWC states parties does one deal with omission or ambi- approaches would needed if the BWC and although they have failed to agree guities? What ought to be done with was to catch up with the CWC in to ban exports of schedule 3 chemi- the information gathered? terms of membership. At the time of cals to non states parties these access A consensus of sorts was devel- writing, the BWC lagged behind by restrictions are persuasive. Similarly oped concerning the link between about 20 states, having 155 States in the CTBT member states are given non-universality in the BWC and it Parties out of the 191 UN members. access to a lot of data and given assis- having no implementing organisa- It was thought that these 20-odd tance. The Landmine Treaty also tion. It was noted that although the states hold no major political objec- recognised the need to create incen- depository states have a duty of stew- tions to the BWC and so might be tives so that states might join the ardship to promote universality to persuaded to join before attention treaty. In its case, certain states took the BWC it is not really their role turns to the common-difficult states. the responsibility to convene ‘open because they have no real authority The idea of creating a special role for ended workshops’ in an attempt to to be any more proactive than other certain countries to promote regional improve transparency and trust and States Parties. However, it was sug- universality was put forward. If such to build confidence. gested that the depository states a role were to be given to the deposi- One issue raised in connection to could make common lists of member- tory states then this role might pro- increasing transparency and trust was ship. mote general universality to all the CBMs. It was suggested that a There was broad agreement WMD related treaties. revamp of the CBM form and con- amongst the participants at the work- The workshop was reminded that tent might be timely with States Par- shop that all those engaged in the central to the issue of universality is ties at the Review Conference consid- Sixth Review Conference needed to the creation of incentives to join a ering deletion of superfluous topics prepare actively for a successful out- treaty. Once such advantages are visi- and introduction of new ones, for come. The focus needs to be on what ble for all to see then non States Par- example whether codes of conduct can be achieved to strengthen the ties, especially those that do not see a existed in relevant areas of science. regime prohibiting biological and direct threat from biological weapons, Old questions remained unanswered toxin weapons. might wish to be “in the club”. For however but hotly debated by partici-

Participants

Dr. Jan van Aken, Head, Study Group on Ms. Una Becker, Research Associate, Mr. John Borrie, Project Leader, Disarma- Biological Arms Control, Hamburg Uni- Peace Research Institute Frankfurt ment as Humanitarian Action, United versity, Germany (PRIF), Germany Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), Geneva, Switzerland Dr. Maurizio Barbeschi, Scientist, Pre- Dr. Kenneth Bernard (USA), Adviser to paredness to Accidental and Deliberate the Director-General, World Health Mr. Bernhard Brasack, Permanent Repre- Epidemics, Department of Epidemic and Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzer- sentative of Germany to the Conference Pandemic Alert and Response, Communi- land [formerly: Special Assistant to the on Disarmament in Geneva cable Disease Cluster (EPR/CSR), World President for Biodefense, Homeland Secu- Mr. Bob Brooks, National Coordinator, Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, rity Council, White House] CWC/BTWC, Nonproliferation and Dis- Switzerland Mr. Robert Blum, Foreign Service Officer, armament (Chemical, Biological, Con- Amb. Sergey Batsanov, Director, Geneva US Department of State, Bureau of Inter- ventional), Department of Foreign Office of International Pugwash; Mem- national Security and Nonproliferation, Affairs, Ontario, Canada ber, Pugwash CBW Steering Committee; Washington, DC [formerly: Delegate, US Ms. Sarah Broughton, Head of CBW Sec- Member, International Advisory Board, Delegation to the Organization for the tion, Counter Proliferation Department, Geneva Centre for Democratic Reform of Prohibition of Chemical Weapons] Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Lon- Armed Forces (DCAF)

10 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 311

Participants continued don, UK [formerly: 2nd Secretary, UK Dr. Deng Hongmei, Counsellor (Disarma- UK Emergency Planning College, CBRN Mission to the UN, NY] ment Affairs), Permanent Mission of Recovery Lecturer; CIMIC planning China to the UN at Geneva (UK/NL) Dr. Vladimir S. Bundin, Senior Coun- selor, Department of Security & Disarma- Mr. Daniel Feakes (UK), Research Fellow, Dr. Iris Hunger, Senior Researcher, Study ment Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Harvard Sussex Program SPRU-Science Group on Biological Arms Control, of the Russian Federation, Moscow & Technology Policy Research, The Free- Hamburg University, Germany man Centre, University of Sussex, Ms. Tehmina Janjua, Minister, Deputy Col. (ret.) Pierre Canonne, Member, Pug- Brighton, UK wash Council; Senior Lecturer, Disarma- Permanent Representative of Pakistan, ment and Arms Control, Univ. Marne-la- Mr. Jamie Fly, Action Officer, Nonprolif- Geneva, Switzerland Vallés/Paris, France eration Policy, Office of the US Secretary Mr. Ian Kenyon, Visiting Research Fel- of Defense, Washington, DC Monsieur Paulino Franco de Carvalho low, SPRU-Science & Technology Policy Neto, Mission of Brazil Mr. Masahiro Fujikawa, Officer, Biologi- Research, University of Sussex, Brighton, cal and Chemical Weapons Conventions UK; Visiting Senior Research Fellow, Dr. Marie Chevrier, Associate Professor, Division, Disarmament, Nonproliferation Mountbatten Centre for International University of Texas at Dallas, Richard- and Science Department, Ministry of For- Studies, University of Southampton, son, Texas, USA; Chair, Scientists Work- eign Affairs, Tokyo, Japan Highfield, Southampton, UK ing Group on Biological and Chemical Weapons, Center for Arms Control and Prof. Erhard Geissler, retired Head, Amb. Masood Khan, Permanent Repre- Nonproliferation, Washington, DC Bioethical Research Group, Max Del- sentative of Pakistan to the UN, Perma- brueck Center for Molecular Medicine, nent Mission of Pakistan, Geneva, Dr. Nancy Connell, Professor, Vice-Chair Berlin, Germany Switzerland for Research, Department of Medicine, and Director, Center for BioDefense, Uni- Dr. Jozef Goldblat (Sweden/Switzerland), Mr. Aftab A. Khokher, First Secretary, versity of Medicine and Dentistry of New Vice President, Geneva International Permanent Mission of Pakistan to the Jersey-New Jersey Medical School, Peace Research Institute (GIPRI), United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland Newark, NJ, USA Geneva, Switzerland; Consultant, United Ms. Mitslal Kifleyesus-Matschie, Man- Nations, Geneva Dr. Filippa Corneliussen (Norway), ager, EuroContact, Jena, Germany; Lec- Research Fellow, BIOS Centre, London Mr. Mikaël Griffon, Conseiller, Mission turer, Erfurt University [Consultant, School of Economics, UK Permanente de la France Technical Secretariat, OPCW, External Relations Division (1994-98); Harvard Mr. Andrew Grotto, Senior Analyst, Cen- Dr. Ottorino Cosivi (Italy), Project Sussex Brussels Researcher, Brussels] Leader, Preparedness for Deliberate Epi- ter for American Progress, Washington, demics, Global Alert and Response, DC, USA Dr. Gabriele Kraatz-Wadsack, Colonel- Department of Communicable Disease Adviser on BW/CW Prof. Jeanne Guillemin, Senior Advisor, Surveillance and Response (CSR), World Nonproliferation/Disarmament, Federal Massachusetts Institute of Technology Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Foreign Office, Berlin, Germany (MIT) Security Studies Program, Cam- Switzerland bridge, MA, USA; Professor of Sociology, Mr. Patrick Lamb, Deputy Head, Non- Ms. Katharine Crittenberger, Deputy Boston College Institution Proliferation Department, Foreign and Director, Office of Conventional & CBW Commonwealth Office, London, UK Mr. Richard Guthrie (UK), Project Affairs, Bureau of Verification, Compli- Leader, CBW Project,. Stockholm Inter- Ms. Johanna Lanning (USA), Intern/Stu- ance and Implementation, US Depart- national Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), dent, Boston University, Geneva, Switzer- ment of State, Washington, DC; Deputy Solna, Sweden land Head of Delegation, US Delegation to Meetings of BWC States Parties Dr. Gert Günter Harigel, Senior Physicist Mr. Kobi Leins (Australia), Project Man- (Emeritus), European Laboratory for Par- ager, Mines-Arms Unit, Legal Division, Prof. Malcolm Dando, Professor of Inter- ticle Physics (CERN), Geneva, Switzer- International Committee of the Red national Security, Department of Peace land (1995- ); Secretary and Treasurer, Cross, Geneva, Switzerland Studies, University of Bradford, Bradford, Geneva International Peace Research UK Mr. Ajey Lele, Indian Air Force Officer Institute (GIPRI) (Wing Commander) working as Research Ms. Melissa S. Hersh, Department of Dis- Fellow for the last four years at Institute armament Affairs, UN Office, Geneva;

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 11 Pugwash Meeting No. 311 for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), Darmstadt University of Technology, nomics and Political Science (LSE), Uni- New Delhi, India Darmstadt, Germany versity of London, London, UK [for- merly: Member of UK Delegation to First Dr. Patricia Lewis (UK), Director, UNI- Mr. Brian Parai, 2nd Secretary, Disarma- Review Conference of the BWC (March DIR, Geneva, Switzerland ment, Permanent Mission of Canada, 1980), Geneva] Geneva, Switzerland Dr. Jez Littlewood, Research Fellow, Prof. Jean-Pierre Stroot Mountbatten Centre for International Ms. Fiona Paterson, Deputy Permanent (Belgium/Switzerland), retired Physicist; Studies, Department of Politics, Univer- Representative, UK Permanent Represen- President of the Board of the Geneva sity of Southampton, Southampton, UK tation to the Conference on Disarma- International Peace Research Institute ment, Geneva, Switzerland Mr. Dominique Loye, Deputy Head, (GIPRI), Geneva, Switzerland; Associa- Mines-Arms Unit, International Commit- Graham S. Pearson, Visiting Professor of tion Suisse Pugwash, Geneva tee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Geneva, International Security, Department of Dr. Ralf Trapp (Germany), Senior Plan- Switzerland Peace Studies, University of Bradford, ning Officer, Office of the Deputy Direc- Bradford, West Yorkshire, UK; Member, Ms. Jenifer Mackby (USA), Fellow, Cen- tor-General, Organisation for the Prohi- HSP Advisory Board; Member, Pugwash ter for Strategic and International Studies bition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), CBW Steering Committee (CSIS), Washington, DC The Hague, The Netherlands Dr. Imtinan E. Qureshi, Minister (Techni- Prof. Robert Mathews, Principal Mr. Arjen Vermeer, Trainee, Permanent cal), Permanent Mission of Pakistan, Research Scientist, Defence Science and Mission of the Netherlands to the Con- Geneva, Switzerland Technology Organisation, Australia ; ference on Disarmament, Geneva, Associate Professor, Asia Pacific Centre James Revill, Research Student, Strength- Switzerland; Student, Centre Universi- for Military Law, University of Mel- ening the BTWC, Bradford Disarmament taire de Droit International Humanitaire bourne Research Centre, Department of Peace (CUDIH), Geneva , Switzerland Studies, Bradford, UK Ms. Kathryn McLaughlin, Publications Amb. Hendrik Wagenmakers (Nether- Coordinator, BioWeapons Prevention Mr. Paul van Rhijn, Second Secretary, lands), Consultant, Bern, Switzerland Project (BWPP), Geneva, Switzerland; Permanent Mission of the Netherlands to Mr. Reto Wollenmann, Directorate for Fellow, Landau Network-Centro Volta the Conference on Disarmament, Geneva, Security Policy, Arms Control and Disar- (LNCV), Como, Italy Switzerland mament Policy, Bern, Switzerland Dr. Caitriona McLeish (Ireland), Prof. Julian Perry Robinson, Sussex Ms. Angela Woodward (New Zealand), Research Fellow, Science & Technology Director, Harvard-Sussex Program, Sci- Deputy Director and Arms Control & Policy Research (SPRU), The Freeman ence & Technology Policy Research Disarmament Researcher (Chemical & Centre, University of Sussex,, Brighton (SPRU), University of Sussex, Brighton, Biological), Verification Research, Train- BN1 9QE, UK UK; Member, Pugwash CBW Steering ing and Information Centre (VERTIC), Committee Prof. Matthew S. Meselson, Thomas London, UK Dudley Cabot Professor of the Natural Monsieur l’Ambassadeur Carlos Antonio Dr. Jean Pascal Zanders, Director, Sciences, Department of Molecular and da Rocha Paranhos, Mission of Brazil, BioWeapons Prevention Project (BWPP), Cellular Biology, Harvard University, Geneva, Switzerland Geneva, Switzerland Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA; Mem- Mr. Roger Roffey, Research Director, ber, Pugwash CBW Steering Committee STAFF: Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Dr. Piers Millett (UK), Associate Political Stockholm; Member of the Board, Ms. Claudia Vaughn, Program Coordina- Officer, Secretariat of the 2004 meetings Swedish Pugwash Group tor, Pugwash Conferences, Accademia of the Biological Weapons Convention, Nazionale dei Lincei, via della Lungara Mr. Ben Rusek, Research Associate, Department of Disarmament Affairs, 10, I-00165 Rome, Italy, Tel. (++39-06) Committee on International Security and United Nations Office, Geneva, Switzer- 687 2606, Fax: (++39-06) 687 8376, Arms Control (CISAC), Policy and land; Consultant on science and technol- Mobile: (++39-333) 456 6661, E-mail: Global Affairs, The National Academies, ogy for the ICRC project on Biotechnol- [email protected] Washington, DC, USA ogy Weapons and Humanity Dr. Marie-Anne Phelouzat, Assistant, Mr. Teemu Sepponen, First Secretary, Per- Amb. Andrea Negrotto-Cambiaso, Association Suisse Pugwash, 16 voie manent Mission of Finland, Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland Creuse, CH- 1202 Geneva, Swizerland, Switzerland Tel.: (++41-22) 919 79 23, Fax: (++41- Prof. Kathryn Nixdorff (USA/Germany), Mr. Nicholas Sims, Reader in Interna- 22) 919 79 43, E-mail: [email protected] Dept. of Microbiology and Genetics, tional Relations, London School of Eco-

12 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 PUGWASH MEETING NO. 313

4th Pugwash Workshop on Stability, Security and Cooperation in Northeast Asia Beijing, China, 12–15 January 2006

meeting and engaged in intensive and US and North Korea since the Report by serious discussions at a comfortable Korean War. He urged the conflicting Mark B.M. Suh and beautiful surrounding in Beijing. parties to have more patience and be This meeting had an unusually large wiser to resolve the problem. participation of Chinese experts on One of the North Korean partici- he 4th Pugwash Workshop Korea and security matters. Three pants stressed that the prolonged on East Asian Security co- people from North Korea partici- hostile policy of the US is the real Tsponsored by the Chinese pated actively and presented papers. problem and asked for change of this People’s Association for Peace and The first session dealt with the policy to solve the problem. He Disarmament (CPAPD) and the Insti- current security situation on the demanded the financial sanctions to tute of Applied Physics and Compu- Korean peninsula and started out be lifted to remove obstacles to the tational Mathematics (IAPCM) was with a brief assessment of develop- six-party talks. He also mentioned held in Beijing from 12th to 15th Jan- ments over the North Korean nuclear that having nuclear capability is sim- uary 2006. This workshop was issue. One South Korean expert ply matter of survival for North locally organized by the Program for pointed out a repeated pattern of cri- Korea. He also called for an end of Science and National Security Studies sis over the North Korean issue and the double standard in the non-pro- (PSNSS) in close cooperation with tried to explain why. According to liferation issue, saying that some three sponsoring institutions. Special him, the reason behind this problem countries such as Israel, Pakistan and thanks to Gen. Pan Zhenqiang, Prof. was basically lack of trust and deeply India are accepted and respected by Li Hua and Mr. Niu Qiang for their rooted mutual hostility between the the US as nuclear powers and also efficient collaboration in organizing the workshop within little time. This workshop was not only timely but very important; as the region is beset by the crisis over the dialogue process in search of a solu- tion to the North Korean nuclear issue through the six-party talks is in jeopardy. Due to the financial sanc- tions against the DPR Korea(North Korea) by the US since last October, the tension between the US and North Korea is increasing and have reached a new height in the region. Participants from major countries in the region, namely the US, China, Japan, Russia and the two Koreas plus two from Europe and one from Pakistan attended the three days

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 13 Pugwash Meeting No. 313

Paolo Cotta-Ramusino and participants at the Bejing workshop.

Japan is allowed to stockpile pluto- US needs to do more to improve the Rokkasho Maru reprocessing plant nium which can be used for nuclear atmosphere for dialogue but North which is scheduled to go into opera- weapons. He pointed out that the US Korea should come to the negotiating tion this year. Japan’s current posses- might have attacked Iraq because table without any precondition. The sion of plutonium is enough to pro- Saddam Hussein had failed to Joint Statement being a vital first- duce 4000 nuclear warheads, and the acquire nuclear capability. step, he called on the US and North new plant might produce 5 to 12 tons Regarding the nuclear capability Korea to work hard with more flexi- of plutonium per year. of North Korea, one of the leading bility and creative thinking to make it One of the Japanese participants nuclear expert from the US reported a breakthrough. He thinks that stressed that transparency is the best about his recent two trips to North China, as the host and facilitator for solution to the problem and Korea including a visit to the nuclear the talks, can persuade North Korea explained the Japanese nuclear policy facilities in Yongbyon. Being the only since it is in its national interest to in historical and technical perspec- Westerner who has seen the pluto- have North Korea return to the talks tives. He mentioned that due to the nium metal first-hand, he shared his without precondition. lack of nuclear waste storage facili- view on the North Korean nuclear In the second session on the ties in Japan, it is cheaper to capability. According to his assess- nuclear non-proliferation issue in reprocess the spent fuel rods and to ment, North Korea might possess Northeast Asia, the Japanese nuclear stockpile plutonium. Japan has no already about 45 kg of plutonium policy was in the focus of interest. intention to go nuclear or misuse the and has acquired necessary technolo- Two Chinese experts drew attention plutonium for military purposes. It is gies to produce nuclear weapons, but to Japan’s nuclear capabilities. One purely for energy self-sufficiency and he does not believe in actual North Korean participant also called for nuclear policy as decided in the weaponization. He is rather con- attention to Japan’s growing nation- 1950s and 1970s. Japan is now pay- cerned about plutonium being in alism and militarization. He argued ing a high price for this policy but it wrong hands. that no one could guarantee that is difficult to reverse it due to the Another US expert assessed the Japan would not attack the US as it domestic constraints. Nevertheless, September 19, 2005 Joint Statement did with Pearl Harbor. Some Chinese Japan is in full safeguard with the of the Six Party Talks and called for and North Koreans viewed the IAEA and there is no danger of mis- early resumption of the talks. Japanese stockpiling of plutonium as use. Heated debates followed his pre- According to him, the statement is a serious security threat not only to sentation mostly by the Chinese and neither a breakthrough nor much ado the region but the whole world and North Korean participants. The issue about nothing. He stressed that the called for a shutting down of the is likely to be seen as a security chal-

14 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 313 lenge in the region as the Rokkasho plans. He sees a need for a peace The final session focused on con- Maru plant starts operation this year. keeping system on the Korean penin- fidence building and search for last- The third and fourth session was sula and for an early resumption of ing security cooperation in the devoted to the relations of the big the six-party talks. region. One prominent US partici- powers and their influence on East Another prominent participant pant called on the US to take the first Asian security. Two Chinese experts focused the attention on strategic step to break the deadlock, as it is assessed the North Korean nuclear interests of the US and Russia in the much more powerful and stronger issue and its impact on the US policy. Northeast Asian region. He stressed than North Korea. The US can afford They pointed out that the Bush that the US acts according to its inter- to take the risk and solve the prob- administration has refused for three national strategic interest and the lem, the sooner the better. The US years and is still reluctant to deal new Russia has not yet developed a should provide security guarantees directly with North Korea. One Chi- fully fledged strategic policy in the and economic compensation in nese scholar proposed to help North region. He read out a letter signed by return for the North Korean disman- Korea to overcome its economic diffi- President Clinton to the North tlement of its nuclear program. The culties and to narrow the gap Korean leader Chairman Kim Jong Il plutonium stockpile in North Korea between North and South Korea. A two days prior to the Geneva Frame- should be neutralized, so terrorists few North Korean and Chinese par- work Agreement in 1994 where Clin- can not get hold of it. He made an ticipants blamed the US for using the ton personally assured the North interesting suggestion to resolve the North Korean issue as an excuse in problem: All parties including the US order to encourage Japan to and South Korea should help North strengthen its military and to build Growing military cooperation Korea to modernize and upgrade its up the Missile Defense system against between the US and Japan is seen complete energy system into a more China. Growing military cooperation reliable and sustainable one. In between the US and Japan is seen by by some as a serious threat to return, North Korea should offer its some as a serious threat to peace and peace and stability in the region. 20-30 kg plutonium. stability in the region. One influential South Korean One of the US participants scholar urged the US as the center of expressed critical opinion on the the world to be more humble and to Bush administration for provoking Korean leader that two light water show respect to small countries. He North Korea to speed up its nuclear reactors would be delivered. The let- suggested that the US use more pre- program and to build up nuclear ter went a long way to explain the ventive diplomacy in multilateral capabilities. As long as the US hostil- continuing North Korean demand forums such as the six-party talks ity exists, North Korea is likely to for the light water reactors. The instead of military preemption in uni- continue to expand its nuclear pro- recent financial restrictions in Macau lateral approaches which have their gram. He emphasized that North targeting North Korea are seen as own limits. He strongly warned Korea repeatedly offered to trade off part of the US financial encirclement against exaggerating the situation its nuclear capability to end enmity by Pyongyang. They are, therefore, and talking too much about the by normalizing political and eco- likely to remain a fundamental road- worst case scenario on the Korean nomic relations and by providing block against resumption of the six- peninsula. He instead called for more assurances not to attack it, not to party talks. The six-party talks are positive thinking and collective wis- interfere in its internal affairs, or only on the denuclearization issue dom to ensure stability, security and impede its economic development by which is the interest of the US. But cooperation in Northeast Asia. maintaining sanctions or discourag- Pyongyang is more interested in talk- Secretary General of Pugwash ing aid and investment from others. ing about security from regime Conferences, Prof. Paolo Cotta- He called for serious change in Wash- change; as such change can come not Ramusino, in the end stressed that ington’s hostile policy against North only by military intervention but also countries should not believe that Korea and to end military exercises in by human rights agitation and pre- mere possession of nuclear weapons the South as well as to give up war cisely financial sanctions. is reliable deterrence against nuclear

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 15 Pugwash Meeting No. 313 attack or guarantee for security. In Participants (Foreign) contrast, the US would attack any country militarily to prevent from Dr. Thomas B. Cochran, Director, Dr. Leon Sigal, Director, Northeast Asia trying to develop nuclear weapons. In Nuclear Program, Natural Resources Cooperative Security Project, Social Sci- the case of North Korea, he stressed Defense Council (NRDC), Washington, ence Research Council, New York, NY that only full implementation of the DC, USA September 19th Joint Statement is the Dr. Tatsujiro Suzuki, Visiting Professor best security guarantee, as the US is Mr. Ralph Cossa, President, Pacific and Project Professor, University of Forum CSIS, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA; Tokyo; Senior Research Scientist, Socio- likely to have no more excuse to Executive Director, US Committee, Coun- economic Research Center, Central attack North Korea and the interna- cil for Security Cooperation in the Asia- Research Institute of Electric Power tional community may feel more Pacific (CSCAP) Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo; Co-Founder, sympathetic to North Korea. Peace Pledge, Japan All in all, the three days work- Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- General, Pugwash Conferences on Sci- Prof. Yoshida Yasuhiko, Professor, Osaka shop was a fruitful and unique ence and World Affairs; Member, Pug- University of Economics and Law, Japan; opportunity to discuss about sensitive wash Executive Committee; Professor of President, Association for Humanitarian regional issues in different perspec- Mathematical Physics, University of Assistance to North Korea; Director, tives in order to understand each oth- Milan, Italy; Director, Program on Disar- National Forum for the Promotion of ers interest better. It was clear that mament and International Security, Lan- Normalization of Diplomatic Relations lack of trust among countries in the dau Network–Centro Volta, Como, Italy between Japan and DPRK; Fact-finding visits (7) to North Korea since 1994; region still exists and needs to be Dr. Siegfried Hecker, Visiting Professor, Managing Director of the Center for overcome by mutual respect and bet- Stanford University and Director Emeri- Nuclear Information in Japan ter information. All participants tus, Los Alamos National Laboratory agreed that the six-party process is STAFF: Mr. Hyung-Taek Hong, Secretary Gen- the best mechanism at present and eral, The East Asia Foundation Ms. Claudia Vaughn, Program Coordina- should move forward to find a nego- tor, Pugwash Conferences, Accademia Dr. Taihwan Kim, Research Professor, tiated solution to realize the nuclear- Nazionale dei Lincei, via della Lungara Division of International Education & free Korean peninsula. To this end, 10, I-00165 Rome, Italy, Tel. (++39-06) Exchange, Yonsei University; Managing the Pugwash workshops are not only 687 2606, Fax: (++39-06) 687 8376, Director, The East Asia Foundation useful but a much appreciated forum Mobile: (++39-333) 456 6661, E-mail: for regional confidence-building and Prof. Chung-In Moon, Professor of Politi- [email protected] for cooperation in peace building in cal Science, and Director of the Modern this conflict ridden region. The fifth Korean Studies Institute, Yonsei Univer- workshop is planned to be held this sity; Adjunct Professor, Asia-Pacific Stud- ies Institute, Duke University July at the beautiful Kumgang Moun- tain and Panmunjom, North Korea. Prof. Eiichi Shindo, LLD, Director and The main topic will be the security on Professor, Edogawa University Center for the Korean peninsula: How to trans- Global Asia, Chiba, Japan; Professor form the truce agreement into a peace Emeritus, University of Tsukuba; Intellec- tual Councillor, Japan Council on East mechanism. Asian Community

Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh, Member, Pugwash Council; Senior Researcher and Korea Coordinator, Free University of Berlin, Germany; President, Korean Pug- wash Group; Chairman, Corea Trust Fund; Visiting Scholar, Institute for Peace Affairs (IPA), Seoul

16 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 PUGWASH MEETING NO. 314

Pugwash Workshop on Prospects for Self-Governance in Jammu & Kashmir and the Present Status of Cooperation and Communication across the Line of Control Islamabad, Pakistan, 10-12 March 2006

by force through Jihad. At this point, from Pakistan and Indian Adminis- Report by the Himalayan region’s projected tered Kashmir entitled “Prospects of Claire Galez future still takes very different shapes Self-Governance in Jammu & Kash- in the minds of various stakeholders mir and the Present Status of Coop- hroughout the document, and remains a prickly issue between eration and Communication across unless otherwise specified, the two countries. the Line of Control”. About eighty T“Kashmir” or “Jammu and Since 2002, Pugwash Conferences delegates from Pakistan and Indian Kashmir” is taken to mean the whole pioneered a number of initiatives con- Administered Kashmir’s mainstream territory comprising both Indian and tributing to an India-Pakistan rap- and opposition political parties and Pakistani Administered Jammu and prochement. Several closed-door ses- members of the civil society, members Kashmir sions in India, in Pakistan and abroad of the Kashmiri Diaspora, Indian and The India-Pakistan bilateral com- were organized with the intention of Pakistani diplomats, academicians posite dialogue intended at imple- offering concerned parties and indi- and representatives of both countries’ menting normalization measures viduals the chance to creatively civil society participated in the meet- mainly in the form of Confidence exchange their views with frankness ing. On the eve of President Mushar- Building Measures (CBMs) and at in a tension-free atmosphere. raf’s proposals for formulae of demil- consolidating a long awaited peace In November 2004, after intense itarization, increase of exchanges process has maintained a reasonable consultations with the governments across the LoC and on self-governance pace since April 2003. It remains of India, Pakistan and different par- for Kashmir, the meeting held in the nonetheless that over the years, the ties in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Pakistani capital, Islamabad, was State of Jammu and Kashmir’s across the Line of Control (LoC), considerably enriched by an over two approximate total population of over Pugwash initiated its first Kashmir hour exchange of views with Pak- 14 million has been kept hostage of specific meeting in Kathmandu, host- istan’s President, Pervez Musharraf. the most conservative ideologies, ing eminent politicians, diplomats, The Pugwash Conferences from claims over the entire territory intellectuals and civil society repre- express deep appreciation to the gov- by either Pakistan or India, to force- sentatives. The experience was very ernments of Pakistan and India for ful annexation, status quo, re-Parti- successful in that it resolved to inte- helping facilitate the meeting. Pug- tion or secessionism in the form of grate the Kashmiri leadership and wash also expresses its deep appreci- independence or access to Pakistan society in a framework of semi-offi- ation to all participants for the gen- cial dialogue with a reach to the for- uine goodwill they showed in Acronyms used in the document: mal circles of bilateral negotiators. attending the meting and in making J&K: Jammu and Kashmir Moreover, both India and Pakistan free and exceptionally constructive IaK: Indian Administered Kashmir responded quite positively to the ini- input. Pugwash is especially grateful PaK: Pakistan Administered Kashmir tiative. to President Musharraf for the NAs: Northern Areas On 10-12 March 2006, Pugwash warmth and candidness with which LoC: Line of Control convened an enlarged meeting, prin- he welcomed and interacted with the CBMs: Confidence Building Measures cipally of Kashmiri representatives delegation.

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 17 Pugwash Meeting No. 314

Background opening of bus services between the with the people of Kashmir on the In declaring his intention to order a two parts of Kashmir. In a joint state- other side of the LoC as much as it ceasefire along the Line of Control ment at the United Nations General can hardly redraw national security dividing Indian and Pakistani Admin- Assembly in September 2004 Prime paradigms and compromise on estab- istered Kashmir in August 2003, Pak- Minister Manmohan Singh, who had lished national security issues, includ- istan’s President made a break- taken office in May, and President ing non-military security. In interna- through in the dangerously escalating Musharraf delivered a joint statement tional circles the question of Kashmir tensions between his country and where they addressed the issue of is increasingly perceived as a matter India. In October the same year, India Kashmir and “agreed that possible of regional security with worldwide responded positively to the ceasefire options for a peaceful, negotiated set- implications, a view shared by most offer and to President Musharraf’s tlement of the issue should be decision-makers in New Delhi but for proposal for dialogue by putting a set explored in a sincere spirit and pur- different reasons. New Delhi has of 12 Kashmir-specific CBMs on the poseful manner”. come to the realization that if there is table. India also announced its readi- After the earthquake of October no reason to avoid addressing the ness to broaden the New Delhi-Kash- 2005 that devastated mostly regions issue of Jammu and Kashmir with mir dialogue and make it inclusive of of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (Pak- Pakistan, for both countries the mat- the indigenous separatist leadership. istan Administered Kashmir) and was ter is confined to security constraints In November 2003 both countries one of the most colossal human and the two should abide by the rules agreed to extend the ceasefire along tragedies in decades, Pakistan seldom of—and respect for—each country’s the India-Pakistan’s International accepted Indian helping hand in relief sovereignty while the thrust of con- Border (IB), the Line of Control operations. On the other hand, flict resolution lies with the tradi- (LoC) and the Actual Ground Posi- reports of the Pakistan Army’s depen- tional and emerging Kashmiri leader- tion Line (AGPL) in Siachen; a plan dence on banned Jehadi groups for ships of all parts of Kashmir. In that was implemented on 25 Novem- relief operations, the following resur- Kashmir, on both sides of the LoC, ber at midnight. Pakistan went an gence of violent political killings in the process is viewed as extremely extra mile by announcing it would no Indian Administered Kashmir (IaK) slow, lacking inclusiveness and lack- longer let its territory be used in sup- and the Delhi bombings of 25 Octo- ing perceptible positive effects. Disen- port to cross-border terrorism. In ber 2005 which killed over 60 peo- chantment towards both countries spite of opposition at home, Presi- ple, made India more elusive in nego- increases by the day while several key dent Musharraf also announced that tiations. concerned parties, often holding dia- he would consider stepping down The bilateral normalization metrically opposite ideologies, hardly from Pakistan’s traditional stand on process was not derailed but India dare stepping down from their maxi- international platforms demanding and Pakistan could ultimately only malist positions. the implementation of UN Resolu- agree on opening five crossing points In an all inclusive effort, Pug- tions 1949. on the LoC. For people in Kashmir, wash’ meeting in Islamabad offered a Multi-track bilateral diplomatic on both sides of the LoC, it was felt platform to major Kashmiri, Pak- exercises ensued with India and Pak- as ‘so little, so late’. istani and Indian schools of thought, istan resuming talks on major issues By December 2005, two rounds as varied and opposed as they can be. such as the construction of dams, the of India-Pakistan composite dialogue The meeting in Islamabad opened opening of roads, bus and rail ser- had been completed, a third round with a plenary session, followed by a vices, visa regulations, economic started on January 17, 2006. closed-door session of Kashmiri rep- cooperation, energy policies, nuclear In the framework of bilateral dia- resentatives. In parallel, Indian and safeguards, borders security, terror- logue with India, the question of Pakistani delegates deliberated on ism and drug trafficking. These Jammu and Kashmir remains central how to reconcile the bilateral peace diplomatic exercises were occasion- for the Pakistani establishment process of negotiations with the ally accompanied by goodwill ges- which, for various reasons, cannot needs and aspirations of the diverse tures and resulted in the implementa- deceive its local constituencies on its Kashmiri groups and their represen- tion of several CBMs including the decades’ pledge to sympathise fully tatives. What are the self-governance

18 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 314

tries, most of these were still too restrictive and inaccessible to the common man. The lack of engage- ment of the civil society creates increasing disillusionment and alien- ation. If this perception is not imme- diately levelled out within the Kash- miri society, it holds the risk, in a medium-long run, to be counter-pro- ductive to the peace process. It is essential for the CBMs to be success- ful that they carry the benefit of a trickle down effect making a qualita- tive difference to the common man’s President Musharraf and Pugwash Council member Pervez Hoodbhoy personal life in terms of security, humanitarian relief and economic formulae that would reconcile Indian erships, irrespective of them belong- improvement. On the other hand it and Pakistani constraints with Kash- ing to Indian Administered Kashmir should be remembered that CBMs miri aspirations? What are the mea- (IaK) or Pakistan Administered Kash- are not an end in themselves but step- sures that each country needs to take mir (PaK), remain deeply divided on ping stones. In the course of negotia- to grant “free political space” for both the projection of a possible set- tions, India and Pakistan seem to be Kashmiri peoples to express them- tlement or on measures that could halted by much apprehension of each selves and contribute positively to ease tensions and improve the current other and of the Kashmiri people as shaping the future of the State? The situation. demonstrated in the aftermath of the meeting reconvened and concluded in In terms of conflict resolution earthquake. Kashmiri delegates at the plenary session most participants expressed their meeting made the pressing demand appreciation for the India-Pakistan that both countries should demon- General debate peace process—or process of normal- strate their good will by acting more On the political front, some delegates ization—but when it comes to Kash- positively and visibly on the ground. noted that there could be no quick fix mir, for a majority of the participants Status quo not acceptable: for the State since a major feature of the process is viewed as sluggish and J&K is its geographic, ethnic, reli- both India and Pakistan are perceived Most delegates agreed that the pre- gious and cultural diversity rooted in as diluting their good will declara- sent status quo within and towards different historical realities and tions in actual negotiations. Some the State was unacceptable. For most presently evolving in varied political delegates pointed at the historic real- delegates, the State of Jammu and systems. On the other hand, some ity that if it is essential to acknowl- Kashmir has the potential to become delegates warned against the danger edge the centrality of the people of a bridge of friendship between India of further dividing the State on the Kashmir this does not lessen the and Pakistan rather than a bone of basis of its diversity. To view diversity importance of the role India and Pak- contention. To this end, delegates in terms of convergence versus diver- istan have and should play in resolv- expressed the view that both India gence was encouraged by some dele- ing their disputes and in creating sus- and Pakistan have to overcome their gates. There are different models that tainable political, social and distrust towards the people of Kash- need to be studied and discussed in economic space for Kashmiris on mir. Simultaneously, outside and order to suitably ascertain the will of both sides of the LoC. within J&K, on both sides of the the people and implement an appro- On the question of Kashmir spe- LoC, responsible leadership should priate form(s) of self-governance. cific CBMs, many delegates noted demonstrate genuine political will to Some delegates noted that the Kash- that although some valuable CBMs make the State recover from the deep miri mainstream and emerging lead- had been agreed upon by both coun- trauma of years of violence and inse-

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 19 Pugwash Meeting No. 314 curity that has affected up to the Laddakh for its part, has achieved a families who left the Valley in the remotest parts of the State. It was certain modicum of autonomy where wake of unbearable violence have recognized by a majority of partici- both its regions (Laddakh and Kargil) lost most of their possessions but also pants that the settlement of J&K are represented in all democratic much of their cultural and social holds a key to durable peace, security institutions of governance including roots. These communities’ voice must and prosperity in the region. Most at the national level. Although Lad- be heard and they should participate participants also agreed that for the dakh has not suffered from violent meaningfully in a process of self-gov- people to decide their future by free confrontations in a direct fashion ernance and reconstruction. will in a democratic participatory (barring the 1999 Kargil episode) the In Azad Jammu and Kashmir, on process they should be essentially collateral damage in Laddakh is the Pakistan side of the divide, some freed from violence and intimidation. strongly felt in socio-economic terms. delegates expressed the view that the Mature and able leadership should Would the peace process and mean- fact that there is no political violence vigorously engage in bringing to the ingful CBMs lead to serious reduc- or active armed resistance does not fold those who still believe in violent tion of high risk tensions between mean that people have reconciled means. India and Pakistan, Laddakh would with their status. This part of the In the course of the first plenary welcome the reopening of its tradi- State contributes positively to Pak- session, the participants’ input also tional trade routes to Gilgit, Skardu istan’s national economy but remains mainly contributed to reviewing the and Central Asia. Concerned partici- highly dependent on Pakistan. Left in situation as perceived from different pants underlined that divided families isolation the region is drawn towards parts of the State. in the Laddakh-Baltistan sector increasing backwardness. Adminis- In the Valley of IaK, there is still a should be given equal humanitarian tratively, autonomy is only nominal. high level of violence where the con- consideration and called for the The true decision-making process is frontation between terrorists, armed opening of the traditional Skardu- taking place at the Ministry of Kash- militias and mighty state security Kargil route. It was suggested that a mir Affairs in Islamabad. In humani- forces claims innocent lives daily. healthy development meanwhile tarian terms, people deeply resent the Beyond human rights violations com- would be to allow the lack of accessibility across the LoC. mitted by both the militants and the Laddakh/Kargil Hill Development Many families and communities are various security agencies, such cli- Councils to visit the NAs and meet divided by the LoC and people feel mate of destruction and insecurity with the Northern Areas Legislative culturally and emotionally ampu- impedes any meaningful socio-eco- Council. On the other hand, while tated. In the aftermath of the devas- nomic and even political develop- Laddakh is by and large a self-admin- tating October 2005 earthquake a ment in a context where societal con- istered territory, to create a regional climate of deep insecurity and lack of ditions have only degenerated over dynamic that would have a genuine trust in the federal government has the years. A large majority of the par- trickle down effect and bear consid- surfaced in most of the region. Some ticipants therefore resolved that an erable benefits for the peoples of the delegates expressed serious concern immediate end to all forms of vio- region, self-governance would have at the vacuum left by the Federal lence is a cornerstone for political to be equally applied to the contigu- agencies in relief operations, a vac- progress and social reconstruction. It ous territories of the Northern Areas. uum filled by banned Jehadi groups. was also felt that an end to all forms In the Jammu region, the question Several delegates were concerned of violence was crucial for people to of minorities (principally Sikh and that the Northern Areas, a geographi- regain confidence in their institu- Hindu) has to be taken into consider- cally strategic territory of almost 1.5 tions, and for them to contribute con- ation. Minorities should be duly rep- million inhabitants, remained status- structively to a genuine intra-Kash- resented in any breaking-ground less either as a part of Kashmir or vis- miri rapprochement inclusive of all development and be part of the à-vis Pakistan since 1947. Some dele- communities of J&K within and process leading to self-governance. gates expressed concern at the model across the divide. The question of internal migration of governance applied in the Northern Short of its demand for becoming across the State also deserves closer Areas (national representation, dis- a Union State Territory within India, attention. Most Muslim or Hindu pensations for local administration,

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The concept of self-governance is so far ill defined. In view of the diver- sity of the territory and the specificity of certain regions of J&K, either by definition of their own populations or in the eyes of India and Pakistan, some ground realities need to be taken into consideration in terms of self-governance and devolution of power. It remains nonetheless that all regions of Kashmir, across the LoC should benefit simultaneously from Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Amitabh Mattoo, Pres. Musharraf, Talat Masood the process of self-governance. In order to promote cross-LoC civilian exchanges in the form of relief and economic dispensations). The issue of where they would regain overdue humanitarian exchanges or in the infiltration of organized Jehadi ele- political, economic and social space form of trade, economic cooperation, ments post 9.11, modifying the tradi- to their own benefit. political freedoms and other forms of tional peaceful fabric of society in the Ideally, in a simultaneous top-to- expression, the process of self-gover- NAs was also evoked with concern. bottom and bottom-up approach, the nance needs to be harmonized in all The delegates generally agreed that if a process leading to self-governance regions of J&K. model of self-governance were to suc- should be brought about by consen- It should be taken into considera- ceed in reflecting peoples’ aspirations sus building mechanisms. tion that certain groups of people on and in enhancing regional coopera- The principle of self-governance is either side of the LoC hold the view tion, this model should apply equally not necessarily based on a concept of that their future lies with India or to all parts of Kashmir even if some constitutional change but on genuine with Pakistan. The expression of dif- specificity can be conceded on the and sustainable political, social and ferent views on the solution to the basis of ground realities and necessi- economic devolution in a harmonized J&K problem—if conveyed by non ties. In the meantime, there was a legal framework that truly empowers violent and democratic ways—should large consensus amongst the partici- local institutions and sustains a not prejudice the cooperation pants urging for developing contacts process of cooperation amongst the amongst citizens on both sides of and and communication between the different actors concerned by the across the LoC with the purpose of Northern Areas and the contiguous group(s) empowered. States’ sover- improving living conditions and IAK region of Laddakh. eignty and peoples’ sovereignty are define the parameters of a healthy not necessarily conflicting concepts. Key concepts political debate on the future status Good governance within self-gov- of the State. Neither should the Delegates to the Islamabad meeting ernance should be a fundamental debate be discriminatory on the basis generally agreed on the following resolve. principles and recommendations: of class, religion, origin or gender. Self-governance—Kashmir specifics: There has been ample proof that Self-governance: there is no military/paramilitary solu- Trust has to be restored amongst the tion to the question of J&K. The con- The modelling and implementation people of Kashmir, irrespective of cept of self-governance also includes of self-governance cannot possibly their shade of opinion. A climate of the dimension of security. In the take place in a context of violence. trust amongst all parties concerned process of implementation of self-gov- Violence is incompatible with any (J&K-India-Pakistan) has to prevail ernance it could be considered that it form of democratic process where the in order to move forward and mean- would be the local authorities/institu- people of Kashmir’s dignity and ingfully improve the political debate tions’ responsibility to guarantee the integrity would be restored and as well as peoples’ lives.

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 21 Pugwash Meeting No. 314

security of all citizens, including minority groups who should be guar- anteed their full, equal rights.

Transitory measures towards self-governance Until and after an institutionalized model of self-governance is put in place in all parts of the State, the mil- itary establishments of both India and Pakistan should reduce consider- ably their interference, either directly sion process on these matters as they tory is still used by armed groups or indirectly, in the governance should become the main beneficiaries infiltrating IaK and also maintains process of the State under their of these measures. large army contingents in key civilian respective administration. areas on its side of the LoC. In view of the recent CBMs Elimination of violence, reduction Resolving issues like Siachen, agreed upon by India and Pakistan of military force Wullar/Tulbuk and Sir Creek would on the opening of crossing points on There should be increased coopera- not impede either country’s position the LoC, people to people contacts tion between India and Pakistan to on Kashmir and would be greatly should be encouraged and facilitated. end terrorism and violence in all its helpful in creating an atmosphere The facilities offered by the CBMs forms and manifestations. conducive to enhancing the peace should be made accessible to Kash- India, Pakistan and the local J&K process. miri individuals. authorities on both sides of the LoC **** Kashmiri civilian institutions, should ensure respect of the law and Although no clear-cut consensus was including educational bodies, parlia- the condemnation of all illegal activi- achieved at the end of the Islamabad mentary bodies, cultural groups, pil- ties on either side of and across the meeting, most delegates expressed grims, traders, media, etc. should be LoC. their support for the peace process encouraged and facilitated access The reduction of military force between India and Pakistan and across the LoC. should result from negotiations; it urged India and Pakistan to create Communication, infrastructure, should avoid key areas to be ren- mechanisms whereby Kashmiris laws and regulations should be dered more vulnerable by either of would have a voice in the peace adapted both within the whole of the protagonists and be motivated by process. J&K and at national level in India the resolve to de-escalate tensions On the side of the meeting, a con- and in Pakistan to address the poten- between the two countries as well as siderable number of bilateral meet- tial of cross-LoC initiatives in areas creating a sustainable safer environ- ings took place between the Kashmiri such free movement of people, goods ment for the citizens of J&K. representatives from both sides of the and capitals, free flow of informa- India and Pakistan should con- LoC as well as with personalities at tion, humanitarian relief, tourism sider a significant reduction of troops the highest echelons of power, includ- (including pilgrimages), sharing of on the LoC and in civilian areas on ing with General Musharraf and energy resources, preservation of the both sides of the LoC, maintaining other Pakistani officials. environment, etc. In the light of the minimum necessary troops to The meeting was viewed by most emerging privatization and the devel- ensure the security of the citizens and of the delegates as a unique opportu- opment of liberal economic models prevent any unilateral adventurism. nity for leaders and individuals to both in India and in Pakistan, institu- Reduction of force should be interact usefully. tional mechanisms could be put in simultaneous and reciprocal on the A large majority of the partici- place for the Kashmiri legislators, part of India, who still maintains a pants at the Islamabad meeting sug- leadership and entrepreneurs to be high level military presence in its part gested there should be more opportu- consulted and take part in the deci- of the State and Pakistan whose terri- nities of the kind.

22 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 314

Participants

J&K Mr. Shohab Inayat Malik, Reader, Depart- State, India; Director, All J&K Waqf Omar Abdullah, Member of Parliament ment of Urdu, University of Jammu; Assis- Board; Member of Governing Board, Peo- (Lok Sabha); National Conference Presi- tant Dean, Students Welfare, University of ple’s Convention on Environment and dent, Srinagar Jammu Development, India; Member, India Forum

Prof. Ashok Aima, Professor, The Business Mr. Mohd. Yasin Malik, Chairman, JKLF, INDIA School, University of Jammu, J&K Srinagar, J&K, India Ms. Sushobha Barve, Executive Secretary Prof. Amitabh Mattoo, Vice Chancellor, Mr. Maulvi Iftikar Ansari, Senior Member, and Chief Program Coordinator, Centre University of Jammu, Jammu, J&K, India; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Srinagar; for Dialogue and Reconciliation, Gurgaon, Member, Prime Minister’s Task Force on President, All Jammu and Kashmir Shia Haryana, India Association [formerly: Cabinet Minister Global Strategic Developments; Professor with various portfolios; Leader of opposi- of Disarmament Studies, School of Inter- Prof. Radha Kumar, Professor, Mandela tion in Congress (I), 1983-85] national Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru Uni- Centre for Conflict Resolution, New versity (JNU), New Delhi [formerly: Mem- Delhi, India; Trustee, Delhi Policy Group Prof. Noor Ahmad Baba, Professor and ber, National Security Advisory Board] Head, Dept. of Political Science, Kashmir Amb. Gopalaswami Parthasarathy, Visit- University, Srinagar, J&K, India Mr. Sonam (Pinto) W. Narboo, Member, ing Professor, Centre for Policy Research, JK Legislative Assembly (Ladakh), E-mail: New Delhi, India; Member, Policy Advi- Mr. Ved Bhasin, Chairman, Kashmir [email protected] sory Group, Ministry of External Affairs; Times Group of Newspapers; President, Member, Editorial Board, Indian Defense Mrs. Dilafroze Qazi, Principal, Social J&K Institute of Peace, Justice and Review [formerly: High Commissioner/ Worker, Women’s Activist, Srinagar, J&K, Democracy, Jammu Ambassador to Cyprus, Myanmar, Aus- India Prof. Abdul Gani Bhat, President, Muslim tralia & Pakistan; Spokesman and Infor- Conference Jammu & Kashmir, Srinagar, Mr. Abdul Rahim Rather, M.L.A. (Leader mation Advisor, Prime Minister’s Office] and Professor of Persian of the Opposition–Lok Sabha), Jammu & Kashmir Legislative Assembly, Jammu, AJK Prof. Posh Charak, Professor of English J&K [formerly: Minister in J&K) and Head of Department of Urdu, and Mr. Malik Abdullah, Tahreek-e-Hurriyat Director, Centre for New Literatures, Uni- Prof. A.N. Sadhu, Director, Priya Darshni Mr. Sardar M. Anwar Khan, Advocate, versity of Jammu, Jammu, J&K, India Institute of Management & Science, Uni- High Court J.K., and ex-President, Jammu [formerly: at University of Jammu: Dean, versity of Jammu. Jammu, J&K, India Kashmir National Awami Party Faculty of Arts; Member Syndicate (2003- Hakim Mohammed Yasin Shah, Minister Mr. Shaukat Maqbool Butt, President, 06); Head, Department of English] of Consumer Affairs and Public Distribu- Jammu and Kashmir National Liberation Mr. Ghulam Rasool Dar, General Secre- tion in J&K Government, Srinagar, J&K; Front, Muzaffarabad, AJK tary, JKLF, Srinagar, J&K, India Chairman, Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Front, Srinagar Barrister Sultan Mehmood Chaudhry, Prof. Rajive Gupta, Professor, University Leader of the Opposition in AJK Legisla- of Jammu, Jammu, India Prof. Bhim Singh, Chairman, J&K tive Assembly, Muzaffarabad, Azad Kash- National Panthers Party, Jammu; Member, Mr. Arshad Hussain, Chief Operation mir [formerly: Prime Minister and Leader Legislative Council in J&K (MLC) [for- Officer, Greater Kashmir, Srinagar, J&K of the Opposition in AJK Legislative merly: Professor of International Law and Assembly] Happymon Jacob, Lecturer, Centre for Member National Integration Council] Strategic & Regional Studies, University of Col. (ret) Mohammad Farooq, Advisor to Mr. Nirmal K. Singh, President, BJP, Jammu, J&K, India [formerly: Research ex-Prime Minister of AJK, Sardar M. Jammu, J&K, India; Professor of History, Associate, Observer Research Foundation, Abdul Qayyum Khan [formerly: Chair- University of Jammu New Delhi] man, Prime Minister Team, AJK; Director Mr Annil Suri, Managing Director, Tawi General, Civil Defence, AJK] Asgar Ali Kerbalai, Chairman, Kargil Hill Arc Electrodes Pvt. Ltd., Bari Brahmana, Council Mr. Raja Mohamed Farooq Haider, Advi- J&K, India; Quality Consultant, Univer- sor to the Prime Minister of Azad Jammu Dr. Meenakshi Kilam, Director, Centre for sity of Jammu [formerly: President, Bari & Kashmir [formerly: Senior Minister, Quality Assurance, University of Jammu, Brahmana Industries Association (2001-3, Gov’t of Azad Jammu & Kashmir (1988- Jammu, J&K, India [formerly: Faculty 2004-5); Co-Chairman, Federation of 90, and 1994-96); Chairman, Parliamen- Member, Department of Management Industries, Jammu (2002-present) tary Board, Muslim Conference AJ&K] Studies, University of Jammu; Assistant M.Y. Tarigami, Member Legislative Manager, Citibank N.A. (credit cards); Mr. Muhammad Abdul Razzaq Khan Assembly, Srinagar J&K Institute of Public Administration (MARK) Khaleeque, President of Jammu and Rural Development] Mr. Abdul Ghani Ganai (Vakil), Senior Kashmir National Awami Party (JKNAP), Vice President, JK Congress Party Muzaffarabad, Azad J&K [retired civil ser- Mr. Sajjad Gani Lone, Chairman, Jammu vant: Additional Secretary and Professor of Prof. Siddiq Wahid, Vice Chancellor, & Kashmir People’s Conference, Srinagar, English Literature] J&K Islamic University at Awantipora, J&K

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 23 Pugwash Meeting No. 314

Participants continued

Mr. Amanullah Khan, Jammu and Kash- Hon. Ahsan Iqbal Chaudhary, Chief Coor- Hon. Abdul Sattar, Member, Sub-Commis- mir Liberation Front, Rawalpindi dinator, Pakistan Muslim League-N; sion on Promotion and Protection of Chairman, Better Pakistan Foundation; Human Rights, Palais des Nations, Geneva Mr. Ejaz Afzal Sardar Khan, Amir Jamaat- Professor of Management, M.A.Jinnah [former Foreign Minister of Pakistan, e-Islami, AJK University, Blue Area, Islamabad [for- Islamabad] Mr. Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan, All merly: Deputy Chairman (Minister of Mr. Najmuddin Shaikh, retired Pakistan Jammu & Kashmir Muslim Conference State), Planning Commission, Govt of Pak- Foreign Service Officer; Member, Board of istan; two-term Member, National Assem- Mr. Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan, Presi- Governors, Institute of Strategic Studies, bly (1993, 1997)] dent, All Jammu & Kashmir Muslim Con- Islamabad; Senior Vice President, Karachi ference, and Member, Legislative Assem- Gen. (ret.) Mahmud Durrani, Council Council of Foreign Relations; Columnist bly, Azad, Kashmir Member, IISS, London, UK [formerly: for Dawn, Karachi [formerly: Foreign Sec- Mr. Sardar Khalid Ibrahim Khan, Presi- Chairman and Chief Executive, Pakistan retary to the Government of Pakistan dent, Jammu Kashmir People’s Party, Ordinance Facotries Board; Commander (1994-97); Ambassador of Pakistan to Iran Islamabad, Pakistan of an Armoured Division; Military Secre- (1992-94), the USA (1990-91), the FRG tary to a President of Pakistan; Pakistan’s )1989-90) and Canada (1987-89)] Justice Abdul Majeed Mallick, President, Military Attaché in Washington, DC] Jammu & Kashmir Liberation League, Dr. Abdul Hameed Toor, Associate Profes- Mirpur, Azad J&K; retired Chief Justice, Amb. Tariq Fatemi, Islamabad, E-mail: sor, Department of Physics, Quaid-i-Azam Azad Kashmir High Court [email protected] University, Islamabad, Pakistan Mr. Hafiz Muntaz Mr. Inam Haq, former State Minister for Khalid Younus, Member National Assem- Foreign Affairs of Pakistan; Chairman, bly of Pakistan, Karachi and Islamabad Nawaz Khan Naji, Balawaristan National Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, Front, Gilgit Pakistan KASHMIRIS IN US / EUROPE Mr. Ghulam Raza Shah Naqvi, Chairman, Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Member, Pug- Dr. Ghulam Nabi Fai, Executive Director, Islamic Democratic Party, and Member, wash Council; Professor of Nuclear Kashmir American Council, Washington, AJ&K Council Physics, Department of Physics, Quaid-e- DC Dr. Waleed Rasool, Peoples’ League Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan; Mr. Farooq M. Kathwari, Chairman, Pres- Chairman of Mashal Books; independent ident and CEO, Ethan Allen Inc., Danbury, Mr. Muhammad Farooq Rehmani, Con- documentary filmmaker for popularizing CT, USA; Chairman, Kashmir Study venor, APHC, Muzaffarabad science in Pakistan; activist for peace and Group Prof. Shafique-ur-rehman, Department of social reform Barrister Abdul Majid Tramboo, Executive Botany, University of Azad Jammu & Mushahid Hussain, Secretary General, Director, ICHR-Kashmir Centre, European Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan Muslim League, Islamabad Union, Brussels, Belgium Pakistan, Mobile: (++92-300) 539-3433, Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Talat Masood, Independent E-mail: [email protected] PUGWASH Columnist, Commentator and Analyst, Arif Shahid, Jammu and Kashmir National Islamabad, Pakistan [formerly: retired Lt. Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- Liberation Front General; Secretary, Defence Production General, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs; Professor of Mathe- P AKISTAN Division, Ministry of Defence; Chairman, Pakistan Ordnance Factories Board; vari- matical Physics, University of Milan, Italy; Dr. Samina Ahmed, Project Director ous command, staff and instructional Director, Program on Disarmament and Afghanistan/South Asia, International Cri- appointments in the armed forces] International Security, Landau Network– sis Group (ICG), Islamabad, Pakistan [for- Centro Volta, Como, Italy [formerly: Sec- Dr. Shireen M. Mazari, Director General, merly: Research Fellow, Belfer Center for retary General, Union of Italian Scientists Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, Science and International Affairs, John F. for Disarmament (USPID)] Kennedy School of Government, Harvard Pakistan Ms. Claire Galez, Director, Centre for University; Senior Research Analyst, Insti- Prof. Abdul Nayyar, Sustainable Develop- South Asian Studies (CSAS), Geneva, tute of Regional Studies, Islamabad] ment Policy Institute, Islamabad, Pakistan; Switzerland; Research Associate, Centre on leave from the Physics Department, Sen. Farhatullah Babar, Senator, Senate of for Asian Studies (Geneva University – Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad Pakistan, Islamabad; Press Spokesman to GIIS/GIDS) Chairperson, Pakistan People’s Party [for- Ms. Sherry Rahman, Member National Ms. Claudia Vaughn, Program Coordina- merly: Speech writer and Press Assistant to Assembly of Pakistan tor, Pugwash Conferences, via della Lun- Prime Minister; Managing Editor, Daily Mr. Mehmood Ahmed Saghar, Vice-Presi- gara 10, I-00165 Rome, Italy, Tel. (++39- Frontier Post, Peshawar, Pakistan] dent, Jammu Kashmir Democratic Free- 06) 687-2606, Fax: (++39-06) 687-8376, dom Party (JKDFP). Rawalpindi, Pakistan Mobile: (++39-333) 456-6661, E-mail: [email protected]

24 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 PUGWASH MEETING NO. 315

Pugwash Workshop: Security Architecture in the Horn of Africa Nairobi, Kenya, 18-19 March 2006

regional, and international levels. groups were divided by ethnic bor- Report by The objective of this workshop was ders. Following the end of colonial- Meghan Madden to bring together key stakeholders in ism, these borders were rejected as the Horn of Africa and elsewhere, nationalism and the idea of a Greater Pugwash held its first workshop on comprising officials of governmental Somalia (the uniting of all ethnic security in the Horn of Africa on 18- and inter-governmental organiza- Somalis within a single state) became 19 March, 2006 in Nairobi, Kenya. tions, military and security personnel, more prevalent. Under the ultimately This event was co-sponsored by the academics, and the broad civil society disastrous leadership of Siad Barre, Africa Peace Forum and hosted to discuss security architecture in the this led to Somali aggression in wars African participants from Egypt, sub-region. with Kenya and Ethiopia. Military Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Tanza- losses, the withdrawal of foreign sup- nia, Eritrea, and Kenya. he issues discussed at the port at the end of Cold War, increas- The Horn of Africa region con- workshop were divided into ing tensions between clans, and the sists of seven states: Djibouti, Eritrea, Tthree general categories: case failure of Barre’s socialist policies cul- Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, studies of conflict and peacekeeping, minated in the collapse of the state. and Uganda. Many of these states regional organizations and mecha- There has been little improvement face similar patterns of conflict, rang- nisms, and examples of other in the last decade. International ing from internal insurgency to cross regional efforts at peacekeeping. The attention turned elsewhere following border disputes. Common problems workshop began with a welcome by the failed intervention in 1993. When include poor governance, lack of Ambassador Ochieng Adala of the the US withdrew its support of UNO- accountability, extreme poverty, con- Pugwash Council and Africa Peace SOM the UN was unable to sustain trol of natural resources, small arms Forum. A meeting in east Africa was the mission, and although it has trade, refugees and internally dis- first proposed three years ago, and retained a security presence, it is places persons (IDPs), politics of the Africa Peace Forum is glad Pug- forced to work out of Nairobi. The exclusion, and ethnic rivalries. Con- wash provided this opportunity for current mission is not to create stabil- flicts in this region often go beyond discussion. It is hoped that the results ity, but merely to protect national their own borders and adversely of this workshop will be addressed at and international personnel and to affect neighboring states. Because of the Pugwash annual conference in collect information. UNDP, UNISEF, this interrelated nature it is necessary Cairo in November. etc continue to run aid projects, but they are subject to periodic kidnap- to look at the Horn as a whole in Case Studies of Conflict and pings and assassinations, and the developing a regional security archi- Peacekeeping in the Horn of tecture. Africa mission as a whole is handicapped by a lack of funding. If the UN were to It has become imperative to seek Four presentations focused on Soma- pull out the impact would probably new mechanisms for building security lia, addressing the causes of conflict be minimal. in Africa, and in the Horn of Africa or the current prospects for stability. At the regional level, the Intergov- in particular. The complex nature of The roots of the Somali conflict can ernmental Authority on Development the region’s conflicts calls for a uni- be traced as far back as colonialism. (IGAD) has been working diplomati- fied effort at the local, national, Like most of the continent, nomadic cally to re-form a central authority. A

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 25 Pugwash Meeting No. 315

Ochieng Adala, Njeri Karuru and Ahmed Ibrahim Mahmoud Meghan Madden and Oyugi Onono governance settlement has been peace process, nor have them been on the conflict itself. Too few people reached and the new government has able to return to normal lives. The have visited Sudan to give the world returned to Somalia, although it has old state structure of Somalia is gone a clear idea of what is happening in been unable to settle in Mogadishu. and the territory is effectively divided the south. Even the combatants IGAD has attempted to facilitate into three regions, including Soma- themselves do not have information talks among the Somali factions, but liland and Puntland. The traditional on casualties, number of arms in cir- it does not have the requisite mechanisms for dealing with conflict culation, etc. resources to take a forceful approach. and justice have reemerged in areas It is estimated that more people Somalia continues to be a threat to its lacking governments, but this is not a have died in conflicts in southern regional neighbors as a source of long term solution. Sudan than in the conflict between arms, piracy, large refugee flows, and A common theme in the discus- the north and south. Historically, terrorism (notably the 1998 embassy sion was the question of whether each tribe has had a system of chiefs bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Somalia should be held together as a and elders that deal with problems Salaam). Although IGAD has offered unified state. It is possible the ideal of without police, imprisonment, or a to send troops into Somalia to a Greater Somalia is holding together formal justice system. Confrontations attempt to restore stability and physi- an artificial state. If this is the case, were dealt with at the community cal security, it does not have the legal the peace process is attempting to level before they could spread. The authority to intervene without a forestall the natural disintegration of introduction of modern government mandate from the UN (which has so Somalia into its distinct regions. A has circumvented the traditional far been withheld because of the arms possible solution would be a carefully means of preserving the peace; how- embargo). If IGAD were to act uni- structured federation system. ever, these systems are too small to be laterally, it would need approval The discussion on Sudan focused truly effective. Combined with the from Somalia itself (which has been on the inter-clan conflicts in the south ever increasing gluttony of small withheld because of opposition from rather than the north-south, Muslim- arms, small sparks can easily turn the warlords). Although IGAD has Christian/Animist conflict that has into major tribal conflicts (generally the political will, it will need to work caught international attention. based on grazing land, water, with international partners, the AU, Because economic and geographic women/marriage, and position). and civil society to be effective. conditions make it very difficult for Today having a gun has essentially At the local level, the Somali peo- journalists to find and feed informa- become part of the transition to man- ple have not been involved in the tion, there has been very little focus hood, and most men in southern

26 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 315

Sudan have some kind of weapon. reconstruction. This is true in the creating more jobs within Ethiopia Military position has replaced the south, but not in the north where the and decreasing the number of youth traditional justice system. conflict is far from over. Given the forced to leave. The comprehensive peace agree- lack of commitment by the Ugandan Regional Organizations and ment (CPA) has restored some mea- government, a third party intervener Mechanisms sure of peace to the area and the tra- (regional or international) will likely ditional systems are regaining some be needed to neutralize the LRA. Three non-governmental organiza- of their influence. But there are major The final case study dealt with tions in the region were discussed as differences between traditional and Ethiopia, with a focus on the impact potential tools in building a regional modern law. These two systems need of technology and diasporas on security architecture. to be fused to create traditional African conflicts. Technology on the The International Development authority structures with modern continent was established primarily Research Center works to create solutions. for development purposes; however it north-south cooperation in develop- The final state specific presenta- has been circumvented to support ment, and has a project that focuses tion was on the continuing, yet often terrorism and to increase the influ- on a security in the Horn of Africa. overlooked, conflict in Uganda. ence of diasporas. In the case of The research looks at four broad Because it has spanned two decades, Ethiopia, the government has been areas (physical security, governance, the causes of the original conflict (pri- unable to provide basic services such resources, and military), with objec- marily political exclusion) are often as education, health, and security. tives that include analyzing the effec- neglected as the world focuses on the Instead, these are undertaken by pri- tiveness of current mechanisms and intransigent Lord’s Resistance Army vate industries and NGO’s, often engaging policy makers, intellectuals, (LRA) in the north. Many believe that funded by the diaspora, who has and civil society. The priority of the the government has focused the wide ranging financial and political IDRC is to create sustainable struc- majority of its efforts on entrenching influence. In the conflict between tures to ensure the absence of war its position rather than attempting to Ethiopia and Eritrea, much of the and to promote human development. resolve the conflict. There is also a money, and therefore the command The IDRC collaborates with regional clear divide between the north and and control capacity, comes from organizations (IGAD, COMESA, south, with the majority of the latter America and Europe. Some estimates AU, etc) to work with a comprehen- labeling the conflict a local issue and put the amount of money flowing sive view of the impediments to secu- content to remain uninvolved. from the Ethiopian diaspora as rity (including corruption, drought, Although the government has greater than the Ethiopian govern- refugees, and abuse of women). The conducted negotiations, these often ment’s budget. The main problem IDRC works by giving governments a appear to be merely token actions, with the diasporas is that they have vested interest in the success of their generally in response to international all of the rights and none of the research; however, it is somewhat impetus (pressure by international responsibilities of citizenship. They handicapped by its reliance on for- donors, allegations of human rights carry passports from other countries eign donors, the difficulty in creating abuses, etc) and lacking follow and are able to encourage revolutions political consensus in implementa- through. Government military cam- or unrest without having to deal with tion, and the lack of government paigns are generally conducted under the repercussions. cooperation. information blackouts and the state A second issue is that there is a The Great Lakes Parliamentary wide implications of the conflict are large population of highly educated Forum on Peace (AMANI Forum) is ignored. youth who are unable to find jobs in an organization that works to On the regional level, both Kenya their home country. This is a univer- increase the participation of parlia- and Sudan have been active in help- sal problem of disenchanted youth mentarians in discussions on peace. ing Uganda deal with the LRA who go to Europe, have difficulty Membership currently includes more (which is on the US terrorist list). assimilating, and become vulnerable than 650 MPs from seven countries Uganda has been viewed by many as to extremists. Projects are underway in the Great Lakes region. The a successful case of post-conflict to merge education and technology, AMANI Forum supports an African

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 27 Pugwash Meeting No. 315

Independent States (CIS) has taken advantage of Chapter VIII of the UN charter, which authorizes regional organizations to undertake missions on behalf of the UN. The UN has increasingly used this measure in peace operations (NATO in the Balkans, ECOWAS in Liberia and Sierra Leone, AU in Sudan). A exten- sion of this practice would be the establishment of the proposed African Standby Force (a similar pro- posal by the EU has yet to be imple- mented). However, as CIS has seen, real capabilities are very different from those on paper, and troop readi- ness, language barriers, equipment quality, etc are likely to prove more cumbersome than anticipated. The African approach to peace operations Salome Katia and Mitslal Kifleyesus-Matschie should be multifaceted, with different functions for the military, diplomatic, solutions to African problems erning arms, strengthening the opera- regional, and international compo- approach and focuses on increasing tional capacity of law enforcement, nents. A general lesson from peace- the accountability of governments, increasing cross border cooperation, keeping is that policy forces are just promoting dialogue between conflict- collecting and destroying weapons, as important as military forces, espe- ing parties, upholding democratic demobilization and reintegration cially in post-conflict reconstruction. practices and human security protec- programs for ex-combatants, Egypt has been an active inter- tion, reducing the negative impact of improving relations with communi- vener in the region, with missions in international interest in regional con- ties, and enhancing regional coopera- Somalia, Liberia, Angola, and West- flicts, and controlling the prolifera- tion and coordination. RECSA is ern Sahara. It has a large military and tion of small arms. AMANI has tasked with facilitating regional and has worked to improve not just its worked in partnership with other international cooperation in combat- capacity to participate and lead peace organizations such as the AU, IGAD ing illicit arms trade, increasing operations, but also the quality of its (and the Conflict Early Warning and accountability and law enforcement, participation. The Egyptian military Response Mechanism- CEWARN), and promoting information sharing now trains specifically for peacekeep- the Regional Center on Small Arms among governments. Because small ing and has established institutes for (RECSA), and the All Party Parlia- arms proliferation is a problem language and technology training. mentary Group on the Great Lakes impervious to borders, regional and The African peacekeeping institute Region (APPG). international collaboration are essen- trains peacekeepers in both English The Regional Center on Small tial to RECSA’s success. and French. Recommendations for Arms (RECSA) was established in the future include the creation of a Other Regional Examples of June 2005 to implement the Nairobi Peacekeeping standby force (either African or Declaration and the Nairobi Proto- Euro-Asian), increasing capacity for - col. These were created in response to Alexander Nikitin (of Pugwash Rus disaster relief operations and mar- sia) discussed Russian peacekeeping the continuing proliferation of small itime activities, and improving coop- ef arms throughout the region, and forts to offer a parallel to African eration in updating and understand- attempts. The Commonwealth of focus on strengthen legislation gov- ing technology.

28 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 315

Conclusion responsibility to protect.” As human- peace enforcement that dominated The workshop concluded with a pre- itarian interventions became more the 1990’s), and fulfilment of the sentation by Prof. Gwyn Prins that frequent through the 1990’s, the pre- “just cause” criteria. The question looked at the changing mentality in eminence of national sovereignty that now arises is who is the efficient peacekeeping and the future chal- began to erode. Today the responsi- and legitimate authority to become lenges facing the African continent. bility to protect supersedes sover- involved in a situation (the best In recent years there has been an ide- eignty if the situation fulfils certain example of this from workshop dis- ological shift from non-intervention- “just cause” criteria (including cussions is IGAD in Somalia)? Simi- ism to a responsibility to protect. (actual or apprehended) serious and larly, we have to look at whose inter- Basic Principle “B” of The Responsi- irreparable harm to human beings, est is it to do what, and who has the bility to Protect, Report of the Inter- large scale loss of life, or large scale political will to do what? As we have national Commission on Intervention ethnic cleansing). seen in recent conflicts, the AU and and State Sovereignty (December Since 1999 the responsibility to IGAD have the desire to key players 2001) says, “Where a population is protect has led to missions in Liberia, in conflict management and building suffering serious harm, as a result of Sierra-Leone, and Sudan (among oth- security in Africa. Answering the internal wars, insurgency, repression ers). These have all had similar fea- questions about their efficiency and or state failure, and the state in ques- tures such as subcontracting by the legitimacy is key in analyzing their tion is unwilling or unable to halt or UNSC, action by unilateral states or potential in the Horn of Africa avert it, the principle of non-interven- ad hoc coalitions, “normal” military region. tion yields to the international operations (not the peace keeping or

Participants

Amb. (ret.) Ochieng Adala, Member, Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- turer, Erfurt University, Germany [Con- Pugwash Council; Africa Peace Forum General, Pugwash Conferences on Sci- sultant, Technical Secretariat, OPCW, (APFO), Nairobi, Kenya [formerly: Per- ence and World Affairs; Chair, Pugwash External Relations Division (1994-98); manent Representative of Kenya to the Executive Committee; Professor of Math- Harvard Sussex Brussels Researcher, United Nations, NY (1992-93); Deputy ematical Physics, University of Milan, Brussels] Secretary/Director for Political Affairs, Italy; [formerly: Secretary General, Union Amb. Bethuel A. Kiplagat–Executive Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Interna- of Italian Scientists for Disarmament Director, Africa Peace Forum (APFO), tional Cooperation (1988-92); Ambas- (USPID)] Nairobi, Kenya; Special IGAD Envoy for sador of Kenya to the Arab Republic of Mr. Rolf Helmrich, UNDSS Security Somali Peace Process (2003 – 2004); Egypt, the Kingdom of Morocco, Zam- Training Officer, Somalia [formerly: Lieu- Kenya Ambassador to France and Kenya bia, Algeria and Tunisia (1984-88)] tenant Colonel (rtd) German Air Force] High Commissioner to the Court of St. Prof. Mwesiga Baregu, Professor of Inter- James between 1978 – 1883); Permanent Ms. Njeri Karuru, Senior Program Offi- national Relations, University of Dar es Secretary, Kenya Ministry of Foreign cer, Peace Conflict and Development, Salaam, Tanzania [formerly: Head, Peace Affairs – 1983 – 1991; Currently, Chair- International Development Research and Security Research Program, SAPES man of Eminent Persons – NEPAD Africa Centre, Nairobi, Kenya Trust, Harare, Zimbabwe] Peer Review Mechanism (APRM); Chan- Ms. Salome Katia, Executive Secretary, cellor, Egerton University, Kenya. Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell, Executive Director, The Great Lakes Parliamentary Forum on Pugwash Conferences on Science and Dr. Alfred Sebit Lokuji, Consultant– Peace – AMANI Forum, Nairobi, Kenya; World Affairs, Washington, DC, USA; Development, Management, Policy Organizing Secretary, Women Educa- Member, Pugwash Executive Committee Analysis, Africa Peace Forum (APFO, tional Researchers of Kenya; Ph.D Candi- [formerly: Associate Executive Officer, Nairobi, Kenya [formerly: Director for date, University of South Africa American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Civil Service Training–Institute for Devel- Cambridge; Staff Aide, National Security Dr. Mitslal Kifleyesus-Matschie, Man- opment, Environment and Agricultural Council, Washington, DC] ager, EuroContact, Jena, Germany; Lec- Studies (IDEAS), Yambio, Sudan (2001); Head of Department and Lecturer,

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 29 Pugwash Meeting No. 315

Participants continued

Department of Government and Public Elected Member, Russian Academy of Mr. Abdiraham Osman Raghe, Somalia, Administration, Moi University, Eldoret, Military Sciences WSP International, Nairobi, Kenya; Kenya (1997-2001)] Mr. James Thuo Njuguna, Ph.D. candi- Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Mohamed Kadry Ms. Meghan Madden, Intern, Pugwash date, Infectious Diseases and Biological Said, Member, Pugwash Council; Head of Conferences Washington DC office, USA; Weapons Threats, University of Bonn, Military Studies Unit and Technology Graduate Student-Masters in Security Germany Advisor, Al-Ahram Center for Political Studies, Georgetown University and Strategic Studies, Al-Ahram Founda- Dr. Paul Omach, Senior Lecturer, Depart- tion, Cairo, Egypt; Professor of Missile Dr. Ahmed Ibrahim Mahmoud, Senior ment of Political Science & Public Mechanics of Flight, Military Technical Researcher, Al-Ahram Center for Political Administration, Makerere University, College (MTC), Cairo; Member of Strate- & Strategic Studies, Al-Ahram Founda- Kampala, Uganda gic Planning Committee, Egyptian Coun- tion, Cairo, Egypt Mr. Oyugi Onono, Planning and Coordi- cil for Space Research and Technology Mr. Omar Bashir Mohamed, National nation Officer, Regional Centre on Small [formerly: Deputy Director, Center of Director, Somali Studies Center (SSC), Arms and Light Weapons, Nairobi, Defence Studies, Cairo] Mogadishu, Somalia; and Team Leader, Kenya Mr. Francis Sang, Director/Coordinator, Center for Peacemaking and Conflict Prof. Gwyn Prins, Alliance Research Pro- Regional Centre on Small Arms Studies, Somalia fessor, London School of Economics and (RECSA), Nairobi, Kenya [formerly: Dr. Alexander: Nikitin, Professor, Political Science, UK and Columbia Uni- Director, Criminal Investigation Depart- MGIMO University, and Director, versity, New York. [formerly: Senior ment; Senior Deputy Commissioner of MGIMO Center for Euro-Atlantic Secu- Research Fellow, Royal Institute of Inter- Police; Provincial Police Officer] rity, Moscow, Russia; President, Russian national Affairs (RIIA), Chatham House, Mr. George Wachira, Executive Director, Political Science Association; Board mem- London; Lecturer in History and Politics, Nairobi Peace Initiative, Kenya ber, Russian Academy of Political Sci- University of Cambridge; Fellow of ences; Member of the International Pug- Emmanuel College] Mr. Dominic Welsh, Security Manager, wash Council; Director, Center for Woodside Energy Kenya (WEK) [for- Political and International Studies; merly: UK government]; field of study: Security and Risk Management

30 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 PUGWSH MEETING NO. 316

Pugwash Conference on HIV/AIDS: Sharing of Experiences, What Works? M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai, India, 7–9 April 2006

considered on par with conventional ing efforts, which are key to bringing Concept Note defense and security issues, particu- stability to places immersed in civil larly in the most affected regions. In conflict. Pugwash Conferences on 2000, the UN Security Council The long-range nature of the epi- Science and World Affairs passed Resolution 1308, which rec- demic and the inadequacy of existing Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein ognizes HIV/AIDS as a security statistical and analytical models make convened the first Pugwash Confer- threat. This represents the first time it easy for policy makers to avoid con- ence on Science and World Affairs in that the Security Council linked its fronting the security dimensions and 1957 to bring together scientists from responsibility for maintaining inter- implication of the HIV epidemic. national peace and security and the around the world to address the new Pugwash Conferences HIV/AIDS epidemic. threat faced by humanity in the form on HIV/AIDS of nuclear weapons. Since then, influ- HIV/AIDS represents a threat to Initially the Pugwash Conferences on ential scholars and public figures human security through its impact on Science & World Affairs concen- from around the world have attended society. In the countries that have trated on the nuclear peril. However, more than 275 Pugwash events in an been hit the hardest by HIV/AIDS with the start of the new millennium, effort to find cooperative solutions to (the “first wave” countries), life the Pugwash Council reviewed its armed conflict and other threats to expectancy has fallen precipitously. basic mission in light of new threats human security. Because of the For example, life expectancy has to human security, particularly those, stature of many of the Pugwash par- declined from 60 to 47 in South such as HIV, that cannot be attrib- ticipants in their own countries, Africa. As a result, these countries uted to an enemy. As a result, it gave insights from Pugwash discussions will face serious social and cultural the green light to the South African tend to penetrate quickly to the challenges in the coming years. AIDS Pugwash Group to convene two appropriate levels of official policy- has also resulted in the breakdown of exploratory workshops to consider making. In 1995, the Pugwash Con- social and family structures and pro- how Pugwash could leverage its au- ferences on Science and World Affairs duced a generation of orphans. This thority to stimulate greater dialogue was awarded the Nobel Peace prize will impair the reproduction of soci- among policy makers, political lead- along with Sir Joseph Rotblat for ety and increase insecurity. ers and experts on the threat posed “bring(ing) scientific insight and rea- HIV/AIDS also represents a threat by HIV/AIDS to human security. son to bear on threats to human secu- to human security through its impact In the first workshop, participants rity arising from science and technol- on the military, which is charged with discussed why the epidemic had ogy in general, and above all from maintaining internal and external become so bad in South Africa, going the catastrophic threat posed to security. Due to their mobility, sepa- from near 0% prevalence in 1990 to humanity by nuclear and other ration from family, and more relaxed nearly 20% in 2002. They concluded weapons of mass destruction”. attitudes towards risk, military per- sonnel are highly vulnerable to HIV- that the wrong analytical tools have HIV/AIDS: A threat to infection. This impairs the military’s been used. The response had focused human security ability to perform its function. It also too much on sexual behavior, and HIV/AIDS is a threat to international hampers its ability to engage in not enough on larger social and eco- peace and security and should be regional and international peacekeep- nomic processes, such as mobility,

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were flagged for future research: 1) the validity of the CIA’s estimation of 10% HIV prevalence as an indicator of social and political breakdown; 2) the costs and benefits of a security analysis of HIV/AIDS; and 3) security issues related to the HIV/AIDS epi- demic in “second wave” countries like India and China. The second workshop built on the discussions of the first. Participants called for a refinement in the statisti- cal methods used to analyze the HIV epidemic in order to ensure that pol- icy makers do not underestimate the Mary Crewe discussing a point severity of the epidemic and its secu- rity implications. They highlighted the need to broaden economic assess- ments of the impact of HIV to take into account such “externalities” as the social cost of HIV. Participants also singled out nutritional interven- tions (e.g. micronutrient supplemen- tation, food fortification and the addition of essential micronutrients to fertilizers) as a cost-effective means of preventing the spread of HIV and improving the health of HIV-infected people, especially those who do not have access to ARVs. It was recog- nized that, while ARVs provide the best treatment option, drug resistance poses a danger and more attention needs to be focused on prevention. Participants noted that women are at greater risk of HIV-infection than men, because sexual inequality makes it difficult to negotiate safe sex. Therefore, they called for the devel- Pierre Canonne, Naggapan Parasuraman, Jeffrey Boutwell opment and dissemination of female controlled methods of prevention violence, gender inequality and dearth of and misuse of HIV statistics that may be used either without the poverty. The inability of political makes this denial possible. Partici- knowledge or permission of men, leaders to confront the reality of the pants agreed that current methods such as microbicides and female con- epidemic was also discussed at length for studying complex security prob- doms. They recognized the need to as a major reason for the failure to lems, like HIV/AIDS, are inadequate study more closely the social con- mount an effective state response to and a new way of thinking is essen- struction of sexuality and the condi- the disease in South Africa. The tial. Several of the following areas tions of sexual intercourse.

32 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 316

Pugwash Conference ference will result in invigorated and • Improving the nutrition and food on HIV/AIDS: Sharing of more effective national responses to security of people infected and Experiences, What Works? the HIV epidemic as well as increased affected by HIV and AIDS In recognition of the global nature of inter-regional cooperation. • Improving awareness and prevent- the HIV/AIDS pandemic, it was The focus will be on policies and ing infections among young people, decided to bring together experts interventions that have successfully especially young women from “first wave” countries where reversed the spread of HIV and • Sexual violence and the social con- the epidemic has struck first and with improved the health and quality of struction of male and female sexu- great intensity (e.g. South Africa and life of people infected by HIV. The ality in the face of HIV/AIDS Uganda) and those from “second programme will comprise 8 plenary wave” countries where the epidemic sessions organized around the follow- • Preventing paediatric HIV threatens to spiral out of control (e.g. ing themes: • Controlling HIV within the defence India) to exchange successful and • Policy and state responses to services replicable strategies for the preven- HIV/AIDS and TB co-infection in The cross-cutting themes: nutrition tion, management and mitigation of Africa and India and gender inequality. HIV and AIDS. India was selected to • Translating awareness into behav- host the 5th Pugwash Conference on Session 6 will consist of the presenta- iour change HIV/AIDS due to the fact that it has tion of a proposal to conduct the second largest population living • Ensuring access and adherence to research on sexual violence and the with HIV in the world and is poised anti-retroviral therapy social construction of male and on the verge of a generalized epi- female sexuality in the face of demic. It is envisioned that this con- HIV/AIDS.

Participants

Dr. Ashok Babu, Senior Programme Col. (ret.) Pierre Canonne, Senior Lec- Dr. Pieter Fourie, Professor- Dept of Poli- Manager (Private Sector Interventions), turer, Disarmament and Arms Control, tics & Governance, Johannesburg Uni- AIDS Prevention and Control Project Universite Marne-la-Vallés/Paris, 16 rue versity, PO Box 524, Auckland Park (APAC), Voluntary Health Services, des Gentianes, 39400 Morbier, France 2006, South Africa Adyar, Chennai 600113 India Dr. Nabiryo Christine, The AIDS Support Prof N K Ganguly, Director General- Dr. Usha Baweja, Senior Advisor – Pro- Organization (TASO), Old Mulago Com- Indian Council of Medical Research, grams, Clinton Foundation HIV/AIDS plex, P. O. Box 10443, Kampala, Uganda New Delhi, India Initiative, 1st Floor, 142, Golf Links, Ms. Sheila Rani Chunkhat, IAS, Health Ms. Sudha Goody, UNDP Programme New Delhi 110003 Secretary, Government of Tamil Nadu, Officer (HIV/AIDS), UNDP, Apex Tow- Ms. R. V. Bhavani, Officer on Special Chennai, India, ers, 54, 2nd Main Road, R. A. Puram, Duty (Tech), M.S. Swaminathan Chennai 600028 India Ms. Mary Crewe, Director, Centre for the Research Foundation, 3rd Cross Street, Study of AIDS, University of Pretoria, Dr. Gianni Guidotti, Program Manager- Taramani Institutional Area, Chennai Pretoria 0002 South Africa Drug Resource Enhancement Against 600117 India AIDS in Mozambique (DREAM), Com- Dr. D. Dhanikachalam, State Advocacy Mr. Aniruddha Brahmachari, Programme munity of Sant’Egidio, Piazza S.Egidio Advisor- Essential Advocacy Project, Officer (HIV/AIDS), UNDP, 55 Lodi 3/a, 00153 Roma, Italy Futures Group, Ground Floor, Door No. Estate, New Delhi 110001 India 1, Kustian Beach Road, Santhome, Chen- Dr. Indrani Gupta, Professor and Head Jeffrey Boutwell, Ph.D., Executive Direc- nai 600004 India Health Policy Research Unit, Institute of tor- Pugwash Conferences, 1111 19th St., Economic Growth, University Enclave, Dr. Clive Evian, Director, AIDS Manage- NW, Suite 1200, Washington, DC 20036 New Delhi, India ment and Support, Johannesburg Hospi- USA tal, Norwood, South Africa Prof. Happymon Jacob, Lecturer- Centre for Strategic and Regional Studies

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 33 Pugwash Meeting No. 316

(CSRS), University of Jammu, Jammu Professor Marie E Muller, Dean- Faculty Ms. Sujatha Rao, Additional Secretary & and Kashmir 180006 India of Humanities, University of Pretoria, Director General, NACO, 9th Floor, South Africa Chandralok Building, 36, Janpath, New Dr. Jagadeesan, M&E Officer, Tamil Delhi 110001, India Nadu State AIDS Control Society Dr. Rakhi Nair, Chief Program Coordi- (TANSACS), Chennai, India nator- Wockhardt Harvard Medical Ms. Jayanti Ravi, Director- Indian International HIV/AIDS Education & National Advisory Council, New Delhi Professor Ashok Jhunjuhunwala, TeNeT Research Foundation 110001 India Office, Department of Electrical Engi- neering, IIT Madras, Chennai 600 036 Dr. Mabel Nangami-Nyarango, Head- Dr. Seema Sahay, Senior Research Officer, India Department of Health Economics and National AIDS Research Center, Plot No. Health Management, School of Public 73, ‘G’ Block MIDC, Bhosari Industrial Ms. Sethulakshmi Johnson, Coordinator- Health, Moi University, Box 4606, Estate, Pune 411026 India Community Projects, YRG CARE-CRF Eldoret, Kenya (Community Research Facility), Harring- Dr. N. M. Samuel, Head- Dept. of Exper- ton Road, Chennai 6000 31, India Dr. Sathish Narayan, Consultant (ART), imental Medicine, Dr. M.G.R. Medical Tamil Nadu State AIDS Control Society, University, 69 Anna Salai, Guindy, Chen- Ms. Suneetha Kadiyala, Scientist, Interna- 417 Pantheon Road, Egmore, Chennai nai 600032, India tional Food Policy Research Institute, 600008 India 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC, Dr. Avina Sarna, Program Associate, Pop- 20006 USA Ms. Elizabeth Noznesky, Programme ulation Council/Horizons Program, Zone Assistant (HIV/AIDS), World Food Pro- 5A, Core C, India Habitat Centre, New Dr. Ruth Kattumuri, LSE Country Repre- gram, 2 Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi - 110 003 India sentative in India, Confederation of Delhi 110057 India Indian Industries, Core 4A, India Habitat Dr. Avanjali Satpahy, Consultant Centre, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, Ms. Gayatri Oleti, Programme Manager (HIV/AIDS), M.S. Swaminathan India (TN & AP), CARE India, Flat No. 3 (first Research Foundation, 3rd Cross Street, floor), Crimson Park (Green Peace), Plot Taramani Institutional Area, Chennai Dr. P. Krishnamurthy, Director- AIDS No. 9/221, 42nd Street, 8th Sector, K. K. 600113 India Prevention and Control Project (APAC), Nagar, Chennai 600078 India Voluntary Health Services, Adyar, Chen- Ms. Sheila Sisulu, Deputy Executive nai 600113 India Ms. Kousalya Periaswamy, President, Director, UN World Food Program, Via Network of Positive Women (PWN+), C.G.Viola 68-70, Parco dei Medici, Dr. Sanjeev Kumar, Head, Social Coun- 9/5, Shanthi Apartments, Avenue Road, 00148 - Rome – Italy selling, Hindustan Latex Family Planning Nungambakkam, Chennai 600 034 India Promotion Trust, New Delhi, India Professor M. S. Swaminathan, Chairman, Dr. Basanta Kumar Pradhan, National M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, Dr. R. Lakshmi Bai, Programme Director, Council of Applied Economic Research 3rd Cross Street, Taramani Institutional Tamil Nadu HIV/AIDS Initiative, Volun- (NCAER), Parisila Bhawan, 11, Area, Chennai 600113 India tary Health Services, TTTI post, Adyar,, Indraprastha Estate, New Delhi 110002, Chennai 600 113 India Tina van den Briel, Senior Programme India Adviser (Food Technology and Nutri- Dr. Michael Loevinsohn, Applied Ecology Professor Gwyn Prins, Alliance Research tion), UN World Food Program, Via Associates, Wageningen, Netherlands at LSE & Columbia University, Director, C.G.Viola 68-70, Parco dei Medici, Dr. M. Maharajan, Tamil Nadu State Mackinder Centre for the Study of Long 00148 - Rome – Italy AIDS Control Society, 417 Pantheon Wave Events, London School of Econom- Dr. Mary Verghese, Project Director Road, Chennai 600008 India ics and Political Science (LSE), Houghton (HIV/AIDS:Global Fund), Population Street, London WC2A 2AE United King- Council India, B-28, Qutab Institutional Dr. Minnie Mathew, Senior Programme dom Advisor, World Food Program, 2 Poorvi Area, Tara Crescent, New Delhi 110016 Marg, New Delhi, India Dr. S.Y.Quraishi, Secretary, Ministry of India Youth Affairs and Sports, Room No. Col. A. K. Verma, Director Health- Office Dr. S. M. Mehendale, Deputy Director 103, C-Wing, Shastri Bhawan, New Delhi of the Director General, Armed Forces (SG), National AIDS Research Center, - 110001 India Plot No. 73, ‘G’ Block MIDC, Bhosari Medical Services, Ministry of Defence, Industrial Estate, Pune 411026, India Dr. Sai Subhashree Raghavan, President, GOI, M Block, New Delhi-110001, India SAATHII, 78 Ground Floor, Pushpa Dr. Stanley Michael, Health Officer, Nagar Main Road, Nungambakkam, Directorate of Public Health, Govern- Chennai 600034, India ment of Tamil Nadu, Chennai India

34 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 PUGWASH MEETING NO. 317

International Conference on Recent Developments in Iraq and the Prospects for Regional Security Iran’s Nuclear Energy Program: Policies and Prospects Co-Sponsored by the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs and the Center for Strategic Research, Tehran Tehran, Iran, 24-26 April 2006

the author and has not been endorsed mate interests in what happens next Report by by any of the participants. door. Indeed, Iran’s recent history is Emile El-Hoyakem marked by the long and bloody war Recent Developments in Iraq it fought with Iraq. The legacy of this his two-part conference on and the Prospects for Regional war is still vivid in both a psychologi- Security the situation in Iraq, and cal and political dimension. The TIran’s nuclear program, was The first day was dedicated to an in- world’s support of Saddam Hussein held in Tehran on April 24-25 2006 depth discussion of political develop- during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, and was hosted by the Expediency ments in Iraq and their impact for the the heavy Iranian death toll, and Council’s Center for Strategic region. In addition to Iranian presen- Iraq’s use of chemical weapons still Research. The first part of the confer- ters and Pugwash foreign guests, the shape how Iran articulates and pro- ence looked at developments in Iraq Center for Strategic Studies invited motes its national interests. At the and their implications for Iran, Iraq’s several Iraqi political leaders and same time, the historical, religious other neighbors and regional stabil- analysts to address the participants. and societal ties that link the two ity. The second part of the conference As Iraq’s eastern neighbor and countries guarantee that Iran will examined Iran’s nuclear program and longtime foe, Iran has vital and legiti- have a major say in Iraq’s future. regional security. Part of the confer- ence was open to the public and the media and distinguished speakers included Expediency Council Chair- man Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Sec- retary of the Supreme National Secu- rity Council Ali Larijani, Foreign Minister Manoucher Mottaki, and former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and head of the Center for Strategic Research Hassan Rohani. Closed-door, expert- only workshops delved into more detailed and technical discussions of the topics at hand. As is customary with Pugwash meetings, most of the discussion was held on a non-attribution basis, thus this report is the sole responsibility of Tehran

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the nature of federalism in Iraq and the distribution of oil revenues. The issue of security was hotly debated. While Iranian participants put much of the blame for the current security situation on the United States, they suggested that a fully- empowered Iraqi government would be able to restore security. Iran rec- ommends a quick withdrawal of US and British troops from Iraq and a regional dialogue about Iraq’s future. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Foreign participants doubted this judgment, stressing that Iraq’s police Many Iranian participants held Shia parties such as the Supreme and military forces need to be better ambivalent views about the US inva- Council for the Islamic Revolution in trained and organized, lest they be sion of Iraq. Paradoxically, in Iranian Iraq (SCIRI) in Iraqi politics. Iran overtaken by sectarian militias. eyes, the US failure to build strong patiently cultivated its ties to these In addition, there was some con- institutions, deliver key public ser- parties opposed to Saddam Hussein’s fusion regarding the nature and vices and goods and create a secure regime and now sees this investment potency of the threat to Iraq’s stabil- environment does not imply that Iraq as having brought the substantive ity. Those who maintained that vio- is a failing state on the verge of civil political benefits it expected. lence in Iraq is the product of an war, a view largely held in the West. After decades of bloody enmity unlawful war and occupation and This disconnect seems to have much and strategic rivalry, Iran now sees that the insurgency in Iraq is a legiti- to do with the sense that Iran has suc- itself as Iraq’s natural mentor and mate resistance movement also ceeded in cultivating good ties with partner. Participants asserted that claimed that there is a terrorist threat Iraq’s most powerful factions, posi- Iraq was following Iran’s steps in that endangers the survival and unity tioning itself as a key power-broker establishing a religiously-inspired sys- of Iraq. However, when asked to clar- in Iraq, and bogging down the United tem of governance, suggesting that ify their definition and understanding States. the Iranian model of an Islamic of this terrorist threat, Iranians par- While US intentions and objec- republic could very well inspire ticipants generally shied away from tives were largely condemned, there future developments in Iraq. The via- the question. Indeed, Sunni-Shia ten- was a sense that the US intervention bility of Iraq’s democratic institutions sions in Iraq and their regional reper- removed from power Iran’s most was linked to the necessity to abide cussions shadowed the discussions potent and committed foe and rede- by edicts from Shia authorities, in but were rarely mentioned. Shias are fined the regional balance of power particular Grand Ayatollah Sistani, identified as the victims and Baathists in its favor. Moreover, there was a Iraq’s most revered marja’. Moreover, as the perpetrators of terrorism. Par- significant measure of confidence Iranian officials strongly recom- ticipants had mixed views about the about Iraq’s future direction. Many mended that Iraq’s constitution, role of Iraq’s neighbors in contribut- Iranian participants lauded the demo- approved by referendum in December ing to Iraq’s stability. It was asserted cratic achievements that brought to 2005, be not reviewed or amended, that some countries were actively power Iraqi parties with strong ties to as is allowed for a period of four encouraging terrorists Teheran and greeted with enthusiasm months under a formal agreement Moreover, while a small minority the appointment of Jawad al-Maliki between the different Iraqi parties. held that the United States had an as Iraq’s new Prime Minister. Indeed, Reviewing the Constitution is widely interest in stirring sectarian tensions, from Tehran’s perspective, the elec- viewed as a Sunni attempt to re-nego- most participants identified US toral and constitutional processes tiate some of the most contentious incompetence and lack of knowledge have established the preeminence of clauses of the Constitution, including of Iraq’s society as the key reasons for

36 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 317 its failure to provide security to the respond to the 9/11 attacks, re- Iraqi citizenry. arranged America’s strategic inter- In the same way, the reasons why ests, prioritized threats emanating the United States invaded Iraq were from Islamic extremist movements, passionately debated. Chief among and embarked on a mission to them was the perception that Amer- change the fundamental dynamics of ica was driven by deeply-ingrained, the Middle East. oil-centered imperialistic ambitions. Iran’s Nuclear Energy Program: By invading Iraq, the United States Policies and Prospects sought to dominate the oil-rich Per- sian Gulf region. Some argued that The second day was devoted to a dis- the need to counter a region-wide, cussion of Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian-inspired Islamic awakening, regional security. It featured former dishonestly defined by the United and current officials from several Iran- States as terrorism, compelled it to ian agencies in charge of Iran’s secu- intervene in Iraq and pressure Mus- rity and nuclear policy. [Note: The lim nations, casting the current con- workshop was held days prior to an Hassan Rohani flict as one of cultures and civiliza- IAEA Board of Governors meeting in tions. Others identified Israel as the Vienna to consider Iran’s compliance nuclear energy is a key element of key beneficiary of US policy in the with its NPT obligations, and two Iran’s development strategy and its Middle East, and argued that the weeks after Iran announced it had response to the looming energy need to secure Israel drove the United enriched uranium for the first time.] crunch. Iran’s nuclear program also States into Iraq. The demonizing of Under Article IV of the Non-Pro- has a research dimension (medical Iraq as a WMD proliferator and a liferation Treaty, countries signatories and university research, agriculture state sponsor of terrorism, followed to the NPT have the right to develop etc.) that is essential for any country by the failure to find WMD and the a nuclear program for peaceful, civil- seeking to establish a scientific repu- now disproved allegations of ties ian purposes. The IAEA is tasked tation. between Iraq and Al-Qaeda, added to with facilitating and monitoring the All Iranian speakers insisted that a widely shared sense that the United transfer of nuclear technology. Since Iran would never give up any of its States had a hegemonic agenda 2002, the IAEA has issued several technological achievements in the dressed in benevolent intentions. Few reports about Iran’s nuclear program, nuclear domain. According to one credited the United States with a sin- alternating praise and criticism of participant, Iran’s nuclear program is cere desire to promote democratic Iran’s cooperation, and culminating similar to “a bullet fired from a gun. values in a region plagued with with the February 2006 referral of the You can’t put it back in the barrel. authoritarianism. On the contrary, Iran issue to the UN Security Council. What has been learned cannot be the United States was criticized for its Iranian participants, including unlearned.” The nuclear program perceived hypocrisy, especially in the top officials, reiterated Iran’s peaceful enjoys considerable support among light of its opposition to Hamas, nuclear intentions, stressing the eco- the Iranian population and is an despite the latter having achieved nomic and technological benefits Iran achievement borne of the national power through the very democratic would derive from possessing home- consensus in line with the Islamic elections that the Bush administra- grown civil nuclear capabilities. In Revolution. The international com- tion espouses. particular, some Iranian participants munity has to accept and adjust to Foreign participants offered a emphasized that exporting electrical this new reality. more nuanced view of US objectives power as well as gas and oil would In parallel, Iranian participants in the Middle East and put US for- dramatically improve Iran’s trade and vehemently denied any intention to eign policy in the context of the post- current accounts, shoring up Iran’s build nuclear weapons. Iran under- 9/11 world. They stressed that Presi- finances and benefiting Iran’s popula- stands its obligations under the NPT dent Bush, driven by the need to tion. In Iranian eyes, pursuing civil and seeks to respect IAEA rules. This

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 37 Pugwash Meeting No. 317 unfair and politicized charge dam- uranium enrichment activities until would abide by all the standard ages any effort to reach a lasting January 2006. This episode has done IAEA safeguards and offer additional solution to the crisis. As evidence of much to tarnish the IAEA’s standing guarantees on a volunteer basis. Nev- Iran’s peaceful intentions, Iran in Iran and worldwide. It sets a dan- ertheless, Iran would rebuff any refrained from using WMD even gerous precedent for other states IAEA effort to impose additional after being attacked by Iraq with members of the NPT that seek to safeguards specifically designed for chemical weapons during the Iran- acquire homegrown nuclear know- Iran. It would interpret this as an Iraq war. Moreover, Iran’s security how. Some Iranian participants unfair encroachment on Iran’s rights doctrine expressly forbids the devel- threatened to end all cooperation under the NPT. opment of nuclear weapons. with the IAEA or leave the NPT International participants Iranian participants deplored the should the UN Security Council inquired about Iran’s compliance referral of the Iran file from the Inter- adopt a resolution imposing for sanc- with IAEA safeguards—or lack national Atomic Energy Agency to tions against Iran. Iran would make thereof—and its procurement of the UN Security Council, calling it a no distinction between comprehen- nuclear technology. In particular, politicized move that undermined the sive and targeted sanctions. Similarly, questions regarding how and where credibility of the IAEA as a guarantor even sanctions imposed by one or Iran acquired the designs and proto- of the right of NPT signatories to the several countries could irremediably types of centrifuges necessary for peaceful use of nuclear energy. In damage relations with the IAEA. enriching uranium, about the delays Iranian eyes, the breaches identified Nevertheless, as a sign of good- and ambiguity in declaring key by the IAEA in its successive reports will, if its file were returned from the nuclear activities, and about the since 2002 did not warrant or justify UN Security Council to the IAEA, resumption of uranium enrichment this move, especially in view of Iran’s Iran would again resume its dialogue despite IAEA demands, were raised. subsequent cooperation with the UN and cooperation with the IAEA. Iran- Moreover, some questioned Iran’s agency and volunteer suspension of ian participants stressed that Iran economic rationales. For an oil-rich country such as Iran, developing nuclear capabilities comes at great financial cost. Moreover, the civilian technology is outdated, especially the Bushehr reactor. Finally, as pointed out by a foreign speaker, only one- third of the countries that use nuclear energy enrich their own uranium. Foreign and Iranian participants agreed that the crisis was of a politi- cal, not technical nature. Foreign speakers outlined technical proposals that could emerge as solutions with sufficient diplomatic momentum and political will: • the multi-nationalization of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities, described by one participant as “putting a UN flag on the Natanz facility;” • the establishment under IAEA aus- pices of international fuel centers Foreign Minister Mottaki that would guarantee fuel supply to

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all nations and deal with spent ura- nium; • the Russian proposal to enrich and take back spent uranium on Russ- ian soil.

Foreign participants asked about the confidence-building measures Iran could announce to demonstrate its peaceful intentions. They sug- gested that ratifying the Additional Protocol of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and adhering to the Compre- hensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) would send positive signals to the international community and create positive momentum to reach a fair and sustainable solution. Other Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. participants described in detail addi- tional verification and safeguard community’s effort to obtain a per- ism. The issue of Israel’s undeclared measures that Iran could implement. manent suspension of Iran’s uranium nuclear capabilities dominated much Asked which model Iran consid- enrichment activities, were Iran’s of the discussion. Israel, which did ered the most appropriate for its own major partners in developing its not adhere to the NPT, is suspected nuclear project, an Iranian speaker nuclear sector. For Iranians, the of having a large arsenal of nuclear dismissed the North Korean and memory of the bitter disputes over weapons and maintains a policy of Libyan models and advocated the these suspended contracts between “nuclear ambiguity.” The fact that Japanese model. By demonstrating Iran and its Western partners in the the IAEA does not have access to full transparency, total cooperation aftermath of the Islamic Revolution Israel’s nuclear program amounts to with the IAEA and its peaceful inten- acts as a powerful reminder of the intolerable uncertainty for Tehran. tions, Japan has developed top-notch need to assert complete control over Moreover, it stands in the way of any nuclear capabilities, including the Iran’s nuclear program. Even Iran’s effort to create a WMD-free zone in mastery of the complete fuel cycle. current partners of necessity, Russia the Middle East, Iran’s stated prefer- For many, the reluctance of the inter- and China, are considered unreliable ence. Similarly, the US-India deal sug- national community to allow Iran to when it comes to nuclear issues. gested to many that the United States adopt this model arises from Iran’s Iran’s officials recalled several prioritizes its own expedient interests lack of transparency and cooperation instances when these two countries, over international norms and obliga- with the IAEA prior to the 2002 reve- under US pressure, reneged on their tions. Under this deal that has yet to lation that Iran was building a ura- commitments at great financial and be approved by the US Congress, the nium enrichment plant in Natanz and political cost for Iran. United States proposes to support a heavy-water reactor in Arak. Iranian participants blamed the India’s own civil nuclear program in Iran’s history with its pre-Islamic West in general, and the United States exchange for some guarantees and Revolution nuclear suppliers informs in particular, for what they perceive concessions deemed insufficient by much of its current stance on the to be double standards in dealing many non-proliferation experts. nuclear issue. Iran’s most senior offi- with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Irani- International Diplomacy ans complain about the nuclear cials reminded the audience that and Regional Security prior to 1979, the United States, apartheid forced on the developing The Pugwash-CSR conference took France, and Germany, today the dri- world. For Iranians, this attitude place in the midst of the debate over ving forces behind the international reveals lasting evidence of colonial-

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 39 Pugwash Meeting No. 317

US and international options vis-à-vis their role in the current crisis was on 2005 proposal and presented a mea- Iran and a few days before the April everyone’s mind. Not surprisingly, ger counter-offer in August 2005. 28 meeting of the IAEA on Iran. there is deep distrust in Iran for US Nevertheless, these nations have an Conference participants discussed intentions. Iran views the United interest in preventing a showdown. Iran’s strategic environment and States as prone to provocation, At its core, their worldview, based on threat perceptions. Iran operates in adventurism and aggression. For mutual respect and cooperation, dif- what it perceives to be a hostile envi- Iran, as evidenced by the threats of fers significantly with America’s. ronment, surrounded by four nuclear force emanating from the United Iranian and foreign participants powers (Pakistan, Russia, Israel and States, the United States is using the mentioned the need for a framework the United States) and two potential nuclear crisis to further its real objec- for regional security in the Persian failing states (Iraq and Afghanistan). tive, regime change. The perceived Gulf. Concerned nations should build It must also deal with rising Sunni- US unwillingness to respond to Iran- on UN Security Council resolution Shia tensions, terrorism in the ian overtures during the Khatami 598, which called for such a security Khuzestan region, and attacks by presidency illustrates its malevolent architecture. In particular, UNSCR Kurdish separatists in northern Iran. intentions. 598 could become the backbone of a The US rhetoric, captured by the In contrast, foreign participants at region-wide WMD-free zone. “Axis of Evil” speech, and aggressive the meeting pointed out diplomacy, evidenced by the push for the deep continued dis- coercive action at the UN, aggravates trust of Iran felt in the what is already a tense situation. international commu- In this volatile environment, Iran nity, stemming from must preserve its independence, terri- Iran’s rejection of torial integrity, vital interests, and Israel’s right to exist, strategic depth. In particular, it must exemplified by state- assert its role in the Persian Gulf by ments of President strengthening its relations with its Ahmadinejad, and of Arab neighbors. The latter worry continued Iranian sup- that Iran’s nuclear program, espe- port for what are con- cially the Bushehr reactor with its sidered terrorist organi- outdated and unreliable design, zations. It is also for comes at considerable environmental these reasons, these par- risks to their own populations and ticipants explained, that basic infrastructure. To demonstrate Iran is fundamentally Iran’s goodwill and willingness to different from a Japan assuage Arab concerns, Iranian par- or Brazil when it comes ticipants suggested joint scientific to considerations of activities with its Arab and other being a civil nuclear neighbors. Iran believes that, instead power with indigenous of being a point of tension, nuclear fuel cycle capabilities. technology can become a key area of Though disap- economic and scientific cooperation. pointed by the European Iranian participants stressed Iran’s position, Iranian offi- good diplomatic ties with most of its cials left the door open neighbors and other middle powers for more negotiations throughout the world. with the E3. They In this charged atmosphere, the deplored that the E3 question of US-Iran relations and had rejected its March

40 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 317

Participants

P ARTICIPANTS FROM Mr. Hou Hongyu, Research Fellow, Chi- Mr. Jon Wolfsthal, Fellow, International OUTSIDE IRAN nese People’s Association for Peace and Security Program, Center for Strategic Prof. Abdulkareem Aldekhayel, Professor Disarmament (CPAPD), Beijing, China and International Studies, Washington, DC, USA; Professional Lecturer, George- of Political Science and Associate Profes- Dr. Rebecca E. Johnson, Executive Direc- town University sor, Dept. of Political Science, King Saud tor, The Acronym Institute for Disarma- University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia ment Diplomacy, London, UK Dr. Bob van der Zwaan, Senior Scientific Researcher, Energy research Center of the Dr. Sami M.K.M. Al-Faraj, President, Dr. Venance Journé, Researcher, National Netherlands (ECN), Amsterdam, and Kuwait Centre for Strategic Studies, Scientific Research Council (CNRS), Harvard University Kuwait City, Kuwait Paris, France Mr. Hashim Al Sharaa, Director General, INTERNATIONAL Dr. Riad Kahwaji, Chief Executive Office, STUDENT/YOUNG PUGWASH Iraqi National Monitoring Directorate, Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Baghdad, Iraq Analysis (INEGMA), Dubai, UAE Ms. Aleksandra Dzisiów, PhD student in Iranian Sciences, and Participant in Post- Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell, Executive Director, Mr. Michael A. Levi, Fellow for Science Pugwash Conferences on Science and graduate Studies of National Security at and Technology, Council on Foreign the Academy of National Defence, War- World Affairs, Washington, DC, USA; Relations, New York, NY, USA Member, Pugwash Executive Committee saw, Poland Morten Bremer Maerli, Senior Research Dr. Thomas B. Cochran, Director, Mr. Juan Pablo Pardo-Guerra, Mexico, Fellow, , The Norwegian Institute of Chair of the Executive Board, Interna- Nuclear Program, Natural Resources International Affairs, Oslo, Norway Defense Council (NRDC), Washington, tional Student/Young Pugwash; Postgrad- DC, USA Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Talat Masood, Indepen- uate Student, Science Studies Unit, Uni- dent Columnist, Commentator and Ana- versity of Edinburgh, Scotland Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- lyst, Islamabad, Pakistan General, Pugwash Conferences on Sci- Mr. Benjamin Rusek, Research Associate, ence and World Affairs; Member, Pug- Dr. Bill Miller, Diplomat/Historian, Committee on International Security and wash Executive Committee; Professor of Woodrow Wilson International Center Arms Control (CISAC), National Acad- Mathematical Physics, University of for Scholars, and Search for Common emy of Sciences, Washington, DC, USA; Milan, Italy; Director, Program on Disar- Ground, Washington, DC, USA Member, Executive Board, International mament and International Security, Lan- Student/Young Pugwash Mr. Niu Qiang, Secretary General, Chi- dau Network – Centro Volta, Como, nese People’s Association for Peace and PUGWASH STAFF Italy Disarmament (CPAPD), Beijing, China Claudia Vaughn, Program Coordinator, Dr. Patrick M. Cronin, USA, Director of Dr. Jose Mauro Esteves dos Santos, Gen- Pugwash Conferences, via della Lungara Studies, The International Institute for eral Secretary, Brazilian Argentine 10, I-00165 Rome, Italy, Tel. (++39-06) Strategic Studies (IISS), London, UK Accounting and Control Agency 687-2606, Fax: (++39-06) 687-8376, Mr. Emile El-Hokayem, Lebanon, (ABACC), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Mobile: (++39-333) 456-6661, E-mail: Research Associate, The Henry L. Stim- [email protected] Mr. Husamuddin Gaber Sayed, son Center, Washington, DC, USA Researcher, International Studies and Mr. Mark Fitzpatrick, USA, Senior Fel- Dialogue of Civilizations Programme, low for Non-Proliferation, International Bahrain Centre for Studies and Research, Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Lon- Kingdom of Bahrain don, UK Amb. Mohamed Shaker, Vice Chairman, Dr. Jozef Goldblat, Vice-President, Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs Geneva International Peace Research (ECFA), Cairo; Chairman, Sawiris Foun- Institute (GIPRI), Geneva; Senior dation for Social Development; Chair- Research Fellow, UNIDIR, Geneva, man, Regional Information Technology Switzerland Institute (RITI)

Dr. Rosemary Hollis, Director of Research, Chatham House, London, UK

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 41 PUGWASH MEETING NO. 318

24th Workshop of the Study Group on Implementation of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Conventions: Achieving a Successful Outcome of the Second CWC Review Noordwijk, The Netherlands, 13–14 May 2006

discussion summarised below under • Currently, there are disproportion- Report by the first two headings. ate numbers of inspections in cer- Katie Smallwood tain countries, but states parties Preparations for the Second CWC have yet to agree on an appropriate his was the twelfth of the cur- Review Conference selection methodology. rent Pugwash CBW work- The second CWC RevCon, which is • OPCW activities in general, and Tshop series to be hosted by scheduled for 2008, faces a number Schedule 2 sampling activities in Pugwash Netherlands. The Dutch of challenges: particular, must continue to receive ministry of foreign affairs provided Universality: So far 178 states happy support from the chemical financial assistance for the meeting. have joined the Convention, but deci- industry. Attending the workshop were 20 sive pressure must be placed on those • A proposal for a 10% increase in participants from 9 countries states that have not yet done so. inspections of Other Chemical Pro- (Argentina, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Industry verification: although duction Facilities (OCPF) has been Netherlands, Poland, Russia, the UK the industrial inspections carried out made, but a balance between not and the USA ), all by invitation and by the OPCW are advancing on rela- over-burdening industry and main- in their personal capacities. This tively solid ground, a number of taining the effectiveness of inspec- report is the sole responsibility of its issues are still unresolved: tions must be found. Consensus author, who was asked by the meet- must also be found with a number ing to prepare a brief account of the of developing countries that oppose proceedings in consultation with the this initiative towards heavier Steering Committee. It does not nec- OCPF inspection. essarily reflect a consensus of the workshop as a whole, nor of the Developments in science and technol- Study Group. As always, the work- ogy (S&T): the work of the OPCW shop was governed by the ‘Chatham must remain sensitive to develop- House Rule’, so the speakers on par- ments in this area. The OPCW Direc- ticular points are not identified here. tor General has recently accepted a proposal from the Scientific Advisory *** Board (SAB) for the establishment of The workshop opened with an a new temporary working group on authoritative presentation on “advances in technology and their progress in implementing the Chemi- potential impact on the implementa- cal Weapons Convention (CWC). tion of the Convention”. This presentation focused on two Functioning of the OPCW: the topics, preparations for the second OPCW’s commitment to excellence CWC Review Conference (hereafter must be maintained and the practice CWC RevCon) and chemical weapon of adequate geographical representa- destruction, which then stimulated

42 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 318

tion must be enforced through the actions of the OPCW Director General. Tenure policy at the OPCW: the discussion on tenure highlighted a number of issues including the need to balance the retention of talent and experience with a renewal of exper- tise. Additionally, whilst acknowledg- ing that the OPCW is not a career organisation, it was recognised that scientists and engineers encounter a number of difficulties when re-enter- ing industrial or research organiza- tions after time away. External factors: such as the cur- rent crisis in the nuclear non-prolifer- remain unanswered, notably how cations across states have slowed the ation regime and the dynamics of the non-compliance in these terms affect process leading to the recent “post-post-Cold War” era. the validity of future deadlines? And announcement that the US too will Chemical facility protection: the how non-compliance will be not meet the deadline (current predic- implications of possible attacks on addressed by the OPCW in 2012? tions are for 2018 / 2019). chemical plants have recently been An option for the OPCW should In other possessor states such as given increased attention. This will the 2012 deadline be missed is that Albania and Libya, the lack of inter- have implications for supply chains the treaty’s non-compliance measures national funding is hindering the and the bulk storage of chemicals. be explored. However, the emphasis destruction process. The lack of should be placed on re-instating com- political will to complete chemical The Destruction of Chemical pliance rather than finger-pointing weapon destruction was also identi- Weapons and punishment. In this case, the fied as a problem that must be There have been two important devel- non-compliant state party should be addressed, as well as the need to pro- opments concerning the destruction required to come back into compli- mote discussion which would lead to of chemical weapon stockpiles. First, ance within a period of time. a deeper understanding of the practi- Russia (with 2% of its stockpile The notion of intensified verifica- cal problems of destruction. destroyed so far) has initiated destruc- tion as a condition for an extension *** tion operations at Kambarka and is of the destruction deadline was dis- The workshop then moved into a dis- soon to start at Maradikovsky. Russia cussed by the workshop, but it was cussion of its main agenda topic – the has also redesigned its destruction noted that intensified verification on Second CWC Review. Preceding this programme to enable it to meet the destruction would remove vital was a short authoritative presenta- CWC’s 2012 deadline, but has stated resources from industry inspections. tion regarding preparations for the that international financial support The workshop also heard a pre- Tenth Anniversary of the OPCW, will be essential. Secondly, the United sentation on global chemical weapon which falls in April/May 2007. States has recently announced it does destruction. It was observed that The proceedings of the OPCW’s not expect to meet its 2012 deadline. Russia probably began its destruction Tenth Anniversary celebrations will The United States has invested some process too late and with too little be an important staging post for the $8 billion on seven destruction facili- financial investment to meet the 2012 CWC RevCon in 2008. The events ties with only two having completed deadline. In the United States a num- will promote participation from a destruction activities thus far. ber of technical glitches (for example variety of actors and will celebrate A number of important questions fires and the discovery of heavy metal issues including the commitment to surrounding the 2012 deadline contamination) and political compli-

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 43 Pugwash Meeting No. 318 multilateralism and the effectiveness Advances in Science and it becoming a “recipe book” for ter- of the OPCW, and will stress the Technology (S&T) rorists; and a need for more funds to challenges the Organisation must The paper addressing the topic of be allocated for more frequent meet- address. There will be events held technical change was situated in the ings that might lead to more innova- internationally (such as in Brussels, context of the cost-benefit balance tive thinking. Geneva, New York) and “academic that in effect determines whether It was also noted that, of the two events” will cover topics such as member states remain inside the mechanisms envisaged in the CWC awareness, implementation, multilat- CWC. The presentation thereby for altering its provisions, namely the eralism, developments in science and sought to identify the S&T topics it full-blown amendments procedure technology and the second CWC might be essential for the Second set out in art XV.1-3 and the change RevCon. Review to address. For two of these procedure of Art XV.4-5, the second topics, the presentation argued that of the two could be used to accom- Weaknesses of the First political factors were likely to impede modate many forms of technical CWC RevCon adequate examination within the change; indeed this had already With regard to the first CWC structures of the OPCW and there- occurred in two cases: the storage RevCon, held in 2003, the workshop fore proposed that Pugwash itself and transport provisions for Saxi- participants felt the whole process should take on the task and make the toxin and destruction deadlines for was started too late, which reflected resultant study reports available to states ratifying the CWC after 1997. the political situation at the time and the OPCW member states and Tech- Factors Outside the CWC the change of OPCW Director Gen- nical Secretariat. The topics identified Framework eral. In addition, there was an insuffi- were (1) the challenges to the CWC cient engagement of key stakeholders inherent in novel disabling chemicals, The next presentation dealt with (industrial, scientific and academic) including such attractions as these European Union (EU) involvement and the Conference proceedings were chemicals present as counter-terrorist with chemical and biological non- largely driven by Hague-based dele- weapons; and (2) how enhanced proliferation activities. The EU has gations rather than capital-based implementation of the General Pur- increased its presence in these areas experts. pose Criterion could ensure that since 2000 and has moved from For the Second CWC RevCon, newly emergent toxicants are prop- rhetoric to action through a number preparations are being directed by an erly controlled under the CWC. The of renewable Joint Action projects. Open-Ended Working Group for the question for Pugwash to consider The EU has funded the OPCW Second Review Conference (WGRC). was how its various resources, (2004) for universality and national The provisional structure for this including the expertise of Study- implementation, and the BWC group is to have one delegation act- Group members, might best be (2005) through the Bioweapons Pre- ing as Chair and four delegations as brought to bear on the projected vention Project (BWPP) thus setting Vice Chairs to avoid the group being studies. an NGO precedent for the BWC. dominated by any one delegation. It was stated that the verification However the EU’s Joint Action The Executive Council of the OPCW, tools used by the OPCW are running projects are not without their prob- during its impending 45th session, is behind technological developments, lems; the decision-making procedures due to decide these issues. [Note: in and that it would be very difficult to within the EU are slow, leading to the event, EC-45 decided that the UK detect the production of chemical long-term rather than immediate would chair the WGRC, with Iran, weapons; for this reason the focus of planning which is not efficient. Mexico, Russia and the Sudan as the CWC was on deterring produc- *** vice-chairs.] Importance was placed tion. The workshop then discussed the on the need to incorporate a wider The structure, activities and trans- preparations for the upcoming BWC range of participants, such as the parency of the SAB were discussed: RevCon later in 2006. The partici- chemical industry, and facilitators to there is a need to balance the inde- pants of the workshop heard an help resolve contentious areas. pendence of the SAB against its isola- account of the proceedings of the tion; balance its transparency against

44 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 318

Preparatory Committee for the BWC Successful Outcomes for the Sixth should be on the benefits of the Sixth RevCon, and concluded that BWC Review Conference treaty i.e. the protection it affords. they had been successful. A paper was presented on the mea- • International cooperation on Confi- The Preparatory Committee sures of success for the approaching dence Building Measures (CBMs) – agreed that the Sixth BWC RevCon BWC RevCon. The conference concrete measures to bring these th will take place over three weeks (20 should reaffirm the validity of the together must not be delayed by th November – 8 December 2006), a treaty; should identify areas of agree- long debates over principles and provisional agenda was adopted and ment and issues to be discussed dur- wording. the Secretariat was requested to pro- ing the inter-sessional meetings; and vide six background papers, rather should provide an opportunity to Future Work than four as in previous years. The achieve agreement on certain areas The meeting concluded with remarks positive outcomes from the Prepara- such as universality and implementa- on the high quality of the discussions tory Committee benefited from the tion. during the workshop despite the determination of the Chair for such a However the Conference must reduced number of participants and result, but the success of the BWC not be over ambitious, a pattern of late organisation. There was also RevCon will still rest on the willing- failure must not be set after the col- attention to the aforementioned Pug- ness of states parties to negotiate. lapse of the 2001 Protocol negotia- wash Annual Conference in Cairo. It tions, the poor outcome of the fifth was proposed that the next work- Linkages Between Upcoming BWC BWC RevCon and the failure of the shop of the ‘Study Group on the and CWC Review Conferences NPT RevCon last year. The paper Implementation of the Chemical and The next presentation identified a proposes an electronic information- Biological Weapons Conventions’ number of short-term synergies sharing network to aid the implemen- should take place at the time of the between the impending BWC tation of the BWC and calls for a Sixth BWC Review Conference in RevCon and the CWC RevCon in declaration to be issued at the Pug- November 2006. 2008 and highlighted precedent and wash Annual Conference in Cairo areas of technological change that (November 2006) regarding the Papers presented promote the long-term convergence implementation of the BWC, immedi- Serguei Batsanov: On the way to the of the two treaties. For example, the ately before the BWC RevCon. Second CWC Review Conference. emergence of chemical biology and The final paper addressed mea- Serguei Batsanov: Sixth BWC Review other sciences combining chemistry sures required to ensure successful Conference – The Measure of Suc- and biology will provide the opportu- outcomes for the BWC RevCon. Dur- cess. nity for convergence to be discussed ing the discussion it was emphasised in the context of the next two that the most important outcomes Daniel Feakes: Recent EU Action on RevCons. Furthermore, it was noted would be: CBW Proliferation. that the taboo surrounding the two • Final document – this should be Graham S. Pearson and Nicholas A. types of weapons is founded on the drafted to be as consensual as pos- Sims: Successful Outcomes for the same fear, that of disease. There was BTWC Sixth Review Conference. sible; a particularly contentious advocacy of the idea that the CWC, area could be the formation of any J P. Perry Robinson: Accommodating being the more rigorous treaty, type of support system for the Technical Change: A Challenge for should have some of its procedures, treaty’s implementation. the Second CWC Review. including verification, expanded into Nicholas A. Sims: Linkages between the overlap between the two treaties. • Implementation plan – assistance the BWC Sixth Review Conference Practical questions to be asked guidelines need to be established for and the CWC Second Review Con- are: can the OPCW be helpful to the countries able to offer such assis- ference. BWC? Would this have member state tance, this could be achieved support considering that a number of through the electronic network out- Paul Walker: Update on Chemical Weapons Destruction Globally. CWC member states are not party to lined above. The focus however the BWC?

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 45 Pugwash Meeting No. 318

Participants

Mr. Alessandro Argentini (Italy), Chief Amb. Maarten Lak, Dutch Permanent Miss Katie Smallwood, Research Student, Examiner, European Patent Office, Representative to the OPCW, The Hague Harvard Sussex Program SPRU-Science Rijswijk, The Netherlands & Technology Policy Research, Univer- Mr. Arend Meerburg, retired; Advisor to sity of Sussex, Brighton, UK Amb. Sergey Batsanov, Director, Geneva the Security Policy Department, Ministry Office of International Pugwash; Mem- of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands; Mr. Victor Smirnovsky, Counsellor, Per- ber, Pugwash CBW Steering Committee; Member, Pugwash Netherlands; Member, manent Mission of the Russian Federa- Senior Consultant, Geneva Centre for the Informal Expert Group on Global Secu- tion to the Organisation for the Prohibi- Democratic Control of Armed Forces rity Matters tion of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), The (DCAF) Hague, The Netherlands Konstantin Mikhalkin, Second Secretary, Mr. Daniel Feakes (UK), Research Fellow, Permanent Mission of the Russian Feder- Dr. Paul Walker, Legacy Program Direc- Harvard Sussex Program SPRU-Science ation to the Organisation for the Prohibi- tor, Global Green USA (the US affiliate of & Technology Policy Research, The Free- tion of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), The Green Cross International, Mikhail Gor- man Centre, University of Sussex, Hague, The Netherlands bachev, Chairman), Washington, DC, Brighton, UK USA Mr. Krzysztof Paturej, Director of Special Mr. Richard Guthrie (UK), Project Projects, OPCW, The Hague, The Nether- Amb. Bozorgmehr Ziaran, Delegation of Leader, CBW Project,. Stockholm Inter- lands the Islamic Republic of Iran to the national Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), OPCW, The Hague, The Netherlands, E- Amb. Rogelio Pfirter, Director-General of Solna, Sweden mail: [email protected] the Technical Secretariat of the OPCW, Mr. Peter Ito, Deputy Permanent Reprpe- The Hague, The Netherlands PUGWASH STAFF: sentative, US Delegation to the OPCW, Prof. Julian Perry Robinson, Sussex The Hague, The Netherlands Claudia Vaughn, Pugwash Conferences, Director, Harvard-Sussex Program, Sci- Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, via della Mr. Peter Kaiser (Germany), Head, ence & Technology Policy Research Lungara 227, I-00165 Rome, Italy, Tel. Media & Public Affairs, External Rela- (SPRU), University of Sussex, Brighton, (++39-06) 6872 606, Fax: (++39-06) tions Branch, OPCW, The Hague, The UK; Member, Pugwash CBW Steering 6878 376, Mobile: (++39-333) 456 6661, Netherlands Committee E-mail: [email protected]

Mr. Ian Kenyon, Visiting Research Fel- Mr. Nicholas Sims, Reader in Interna- Mrs. Jacqueline Topakian, Assistant to low, SPRU-Science & Technology Policy tional Relations, London School of Eco- Sergey Batsanov, Geneva Pugwash Office Research, University of Sussex, Brighton, nomics and Political Science (LSE), Uni- UK; Visiting Senior Research Fellow, versity of London, London, UK Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, UK

46 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 PUGWASH MEETING NO. 320

Pugwash Workshop on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament—The Role of Europe Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 7–8 June 2006

energy and the NPT, (II) the present tional community cannot exclude the Report by situation in the Middle East and par- possibility that Iran is gradually Bob van der Zwaan ticularly Iran, and (III) the nuclear working towards the expansion of its policy of NATO and nuclear civil nuclear activities to the develop- weapons in Europe as well as its role ment of nuclear weapons. Continuing he International Pugwash in advancing the nuclear non-prolif- six-party talks have so far not suc- Conferences on Science and eration and disarmament agenda. In ceeded in persuading the regime in World Affairs and the Dutch T a fourth session open to the press an North Korea that it is in the benefit of Pugwash Group co-organized, with ensemble of subjects were assessed the People’s Republic to dismantle its financial support from the Nether- related to the Iranian impasse and military nuclear complex. Other lands Ministries of Foreign Affairs NPT compliance issues. nuclear proliferation concerns in espe- and Defense, a two-day workshop on cially the Middle East and South Asia the general status and specific prob- Introduction add to the continuous nuclear threat lems of the nuclear non-proliferation The global nuclear non-proliferation the world faces today. While it is uni- and disarmament regime, with a par- and disarmament effort is experienc- versally recognized that achieving full ticular focus on the role of Europe in ing one of its deepest crises to date. implementation of the 13 practical mitigating the current crisis. The Despite intense IAEA inspections of steps agreed upon at the 2000 NPT meeting was held on 7 and 8 June Iranian nuclear facilities over the past Review Conference is essential, virtu- 2006 in the Royal Netherlands Acad- few years and elaborate European ally no progress has been booked emy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW, diplomacy to convince the authorities since then nor at the 2005 NPT Trippenhuis) in Amsterdam, gather- in Teheran to temporarily suspend its Review Conference. Ten years after its ing 25 participants from 10 different uranium enrichment activities, impor- opening for signature, the CTBT has countries. Three sessions were dedi- tant questions regarding its enrich- still not entered into force and negoti- cated to, respectively, (I) the ment program remain. The interna- ations on an FMCT are at a limbo, prospects and challenges of nuclear such that the future of both these treaties remains highly uncertain. Also in the nuclear disarmament process progress has recently been practically absent. Over the past years, the US has shifted from its policy in which nuclear weapons were regarded as weapons of last resort to one in which it may use nuclear weapons for preemptive purposes. The likely devel- opment of a new generation of Ameri- can nuclear weapons constitutes a menace to the non-proliferation regime. Strategic nuclear arms agree- Amsterdam workshop participants. ments between the Russian Federation

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 47 Pugwash Meeting No. 320

and the US are at a standstill and 2050, the contribution of nuclear During the Cold War, global reduced warheads and their delivery energy to electricity generation is nuclear relations rested on two mutu- systems are not dismantled irreversibly likely to remain between a lower ally supportive arrangements: the in a transparent and verifiable manner, bound of constant capacity (i.e. in elaborate structure of nuclear deter- while remaining deployed Russian and absolute terms) and an upper bound rence and the non-proliferation US nuclear weapons systems are kept of constant share (i.e. in relative regime. A rough equality of military at high-alert operational status. The terms). Given the intimacy between power was measured in terms of other official and de facto nuclear the civil, military, and terrorist appli- assured mutual destruction, while an weapons states have no intention to cations of nuclear technology and uneven distribution of military reduce their nuclear arsenals, the 480 materials, there will be even more rea- nuclear capabilities assured a rank American nuclear gravity bombs son than exists today for all countries ordering among nuclear weapon deployed under NATO auspices in to fulfill their NPT obligations, on the powers. This balance of terror cre- five European states are not subjected one hand, and engage in a gradually ated a semblance of order, based pri- to plans for reduction or elimination, more stringent nuclear control system marily on the unprecedented com- and the reduction of American and of fissile and radioactive materials, on mon interest of all states in avoiding Russian tactical nuclear weapons the other hand. It has to be urgently a nuclear holocaust. Thanks to the remains excluded from any current analyzed to what extent a possible NPT, nuclear weapon and non- disarmament negotiations. The revival of the peaceful use of nuclear nuclear weapon states found a com- process of improving worldwide the energy and the associated construc- mon ground in averting the spread of accounting and control of fissile mate- tion of new nuclear power plants can nuclear weapons with all undertaking rials remains largely insufficient. be reconciled with the increasing wor- respective obligations. During the Given the present situation, the ries world-wide over the proliferation past 15 years, this nuclear weapons nuclear non-proliferation and disar- and terrorist risks involved with the control regime of which the NPT still mament regime is urgently in need of a multiple stages (front-end and back- constitutes the cornerstone, has been serious examination. end) of the nuclear fuel cycle. Tech- tested as never before, and has gone nology can play an important role in through at least three major crises Prospects and challenges of reducing the inherent and dynamic (involving, respectively, Iraq, Iran, nuclear energy and the NPT risks of nuclear energy, but techniques and North Korea) none of which While the future of nuclear power such as lifetime reduction and trans- have been satisfactorily solved. While remains strongly affected by its five mutation of radioactive waste and some modestly positive developments problematic features (waste, safety, proliferation-risk reducing reactors took place – as it was decided, for proliferation, economics, and accep- with passive safety features can only example, in 1995 to extend the NPT tance) there are at least three socio- be part of the solution. The establish- indefinitely – the challenges ahead to economic and/or environmental con- ment of institutions and the building maintain and strengthen the NPT are cerns that it could contribute to of trust are essential elements in large and multiple, relating to issues alleviate (climate change, air pollu- advancing the nuclear non-prolifera- of consistency, commitment, jurisdic- tion, energy security). The increasing tion and disarmament agenda, while tion, inspection, and enforcement. attention to these concerns explains allowing the peaceful use of nuclear Among the long list of challenges fig- the current renewed interest in the energy. Internationally a consensus is ures also the evidence that the US civil use of nuclear energy for power growing that a full internationaliza- today no longer sees nuclear arms production. The coming decades the tion of the nuclear fuel cycle is desir- control as an essential part of its installed nuclear capacity in Europe is able, including e.g. Internationally nuclear policy and is instigating sub- unlikely to change significantly, while Monitored Waste Repositories stantial changes in the nuclear non- the relative benefits and drawbacks of (IMWR), international fuel banks, proliferation regime, as exemplified nuclear power, as well as sustainabil- multi-nation enrichment plants and by the recent nuclear deal between ity arguments related to all energy reprocessing facilities, in order to the US and India. Considerable resources, will determine its prospects guarantee the civil use only of nuclear unease also exists about combining for the longer run. World-wide, until technologies and materials. the campaign against terrorism with

48 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 320

preventive or preemptive counter- could delay if not hamper the ratifica- topics like the international non-pro- proliferation. With possibilities of a tion by Iran of the Additional Proto- liferation situation and the NPT, the nuclear response to chemical or bio- col. While it may be good as trust- Israeli nuclear arsenal, the interests of logical attack, a danger exists of an building measure to temporarily external powers, and the position of even further potential use of nuclear suspend its enrichment technology Arab states regarding these issues. weapons. Nuclear war has been development, in the longer run Iran The Middle East problematique can- avoided so far because of the taboo cannot be denied the operation of not be solved without addressing the against the military use of nuclear domestic enrichment facilities. A solu- Israeli nuclear-weapon capabilities weapons during the nuclear era. Any tion could be to create requirements, and the need to bring Israel into a such use in the future, accidental or in the case of Iran as elsewhere, that level playing field system that allows deliberate, could destroy whatever any future uranium enrichment activi- it to adhere to the NPT and support remains of that taboo. ties may only take place in the context the establishment of a zone free of of international consortia, e.g. similar weapons of mass destruction. The Middle East and Iran to the existing ones of URENCO and NATO and the role of Europe Even while a new package of incen- ABACC. tives to solve the controversy over The initiative by the five nuclear Clear ambiguity exists in the NATO Iran’s nuclear program has just been weapons states and Germany to pro- defense doctrine, since 23 of the 26 proposed by the US, Europe, China, pose a package with a number of NATO member countries are defined and Russia, there is not yet an appar- incentives in exchange for Iran as being ‘non-nuclear-weapon states’ ent concrete settlement of the dispute accepting to temporarily renounce its that simultaneously belong to an in view. Article IV of the NPT as well enrichment program could be a alliance that regards nuclear deter- as its negotiating history clearly indi- development on the right track. It rence as a key part of its military doc- cate that uranium enrichment is not would allow building confidence, trine, while NATO condemns the banned from any nuclear program as while it would not preclude recogniz- adoption of a nuclear deterrent by long as it is for peaceful purposes ing Iran’s inalienable right to eventu- any other state. This contradiction only. Hence, eventually the West will ally possess the full nuclear full cycle has long exerted a negative influence need to acquiesce in Iran’s right to as long as it is employed for peaceful over attempts by the international enrich uranium according to the NPT, purposes only. Especially an offer community to take serious steps but this should not relieve it from a that would include European support towards global nuclear non-prolifera- constant and thorough investigation for a NWFZ in the Middle East and a tion and disarmament. With no real of its current nuclear activities as well regional forum to discuss and reach progress in nuclear disarmament in as of the period preceding 2003 when regional security arrangements is Russia and the US, and in the absence advanced Iranian uranium enrich- interesting. The Iranian nuclear file of a popular mass movement against ment activities were revealed. While cannot be discussed in isolation of nuclear weapons, pressure from over the past few years the IAEA has the region’s political environment, within NATO may persuade the undertaken more extensive inspec- security requirements, and threat per- Alliance’s three nuclear-weapon tions in Iran than it has probably ever ceptions. Indeed, the Iranian prolifer- states that the international control done before regarding any other ation crisis can only be handled in the and reduction of nuclear arms is not nuclear program, it has evidently not larger regional context, and should only a viable option but is also more yet done so to full satisfaction. The include the Arab perspective that has rational than attempts to impose uni- IAEA should therefore be given the so far not been given due attention. laterally non-proliferation policies on opportunity to continue far-reaching In order to understand the reasons other countries. In addition to NATO inspections, but insisting that Iran behind nuclear proliferation in the nuclear weapon states France and the should stop or suspend enrichment Middle East, one needs to examine United Kingdom, especially countries indefinitely does not facilitate its task the overall political and security like Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the in its safeguards activities to render landscape in the region with its com- Netherlands – that all four have the Iranian nuclear program more plex dilemmas of conflicts and threat American nuclear weapons on their transparent. Insistence on suspension perceptions, including a variety of soil – could become more vocal in

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 49 Pugwash Meeting No. 320

favor of nuclear reform: their joint the EU may well get into a position weapons is in a crisis and the nuclear call for concrete nuclear weapons enabling it to launch a European ini- disarmament process has stagnated. reduction may provide the best tiative: using the British and French Since the development and use of the opportunity to advance the nuclear nuclear arsenals as a bargaining chip first nuclear fission bombs over six non-proliferation and disarmament to help the NPT out of its current cri- decades ago, the global nuclear threat agenda and thereby counter a sis. Such an initiative could, for exam- remains un-mitigated. This threat has renewal of the nuclear arms race in ple, relate nuclear weapons reductions recently even intensified, and the some parts of the world. in France and the United Kingdom to nuclear non-proliferation process Since the European Council reductions in the third European today probably faces its greatest chal- adopted in 2003 two key documents nuclear weapon state, the Russian lenge since the end of the Cold War. describing its major security strate- Federation, as well as the US. An Most apparent at present are the gies – the European Security Strategy important question remains how US nuclear impasses related to Iran and (ESS) and the associated EU Strategy and Russian tactical nuclear weapons North Korea, but other proliferation Against Proliferation of Weapons of can be included in future nuclear dis- intricacies, in especially the Middle Mass Destruction (referred to as the armament negotiations. Like in the East and South Asia, add to the Non-Proliferation Strategy, NPS) – context of NATO, also in the inte- world’s nuclear concerns. the European non-proliferation strat- grating European policy framework The participants of this work- egy has gained in coherence, but only the four EU non-nuclear weapon shop, key experts from around the conditionally in effectiveness. In deal- states on whose territory US tactical world in the many aspects of the ing with the so far most difficult test nuclear weapons are deployed under nuclear non-proliferation conun- cases, the NPT and Iran, the EU has NATO auspices could influence the drum, discussed the general status maintained unity, and widely oppos- negotiating process. The fact that and present problems of the global ing views within the Union, like in today most of the European states still nuclear non-proliferation and disar- the run-up to the Iraq conflict, could regard their security under a nuclear mament process. The workshop con- be avoided. Under the surface, how- protective screen as better guaranteed stituted an independent forum for ever, internal differences remain, and than without nuclear weapons weak- authoritative scientists and policy notably on nuclear disarmament the ens the credibility of European makers assessing and bringing for- approaches of different European demands for nuclear abstinence of ward solutions to the current crisis, states vary substantially. The largest other states like Iran. One of the fun- as well as providing suggestions for obstacle for a stronger European damental reasons that the NPT is adapting the current political and engagement for a WMD-free world undergoing one of its biggest crises to legal nuclear regime. In particular, remains the contradiction between date, is the fact that article VI on the workshop has investigated what the “peace power” Europe as a nuclear disarmament has not been the role of European policies could be whole and the policy of the nuclear obeyed sufficiently by the nuclear- to advance the non-proliferation and powers France and the United King- weapon states party to the NPT. disarmament agenda. Lessons have dom in particular. A discussion on Europe could contribute to resolving been brought forward regarding how the need of nuclear weapons for this crisis by reconsidering the neces- the currently most pertinent nuclear European security is overdue. Such a sity of the presence of nuclear proliferation problems could be miti- discussion would not only need to weapons in both European nuclear gated, among which the case of Iran, address the nuclear doctrines of and non-nuclear weapon states on the and to what extent European initia- France and the UK, but also the pur- one hand, and by continuing its diplo- tives can be undertaken embedded in pose of the approximately 480 US matic role as negotiator in interna- the broader ongoing process of nuclear weapons still deployed in five tional disputes and conflict situations nuclear non-proliferation and disar- European states in the framework of on the other hand. mament. This process, both desirable NATO. and feasible, should and could ulti- Concluding remarks With the difficult but steady devel- mately lead towards the universal opment towards an increasingly bind- The current regime designed to pre- elimination and abolition of nuclear ing Union between European states, vent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

50 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 320

Participants

Prof. Wa’el N. Al-Assad, Head of the Dis- of Nuclear Material Management The Netherlands; Treasurer, International armament Department, The Arab (INMM) Student/Young Pugwash; Treasurer, Pug- League, Cairo wash Netherlands Dr. Berma Klein Goldewijk, Director, Mr. Ranieri Argentini (Italy), PhD student Cedar International, Center for Dignity Drs. Maaike Reijlink, MA, Senior Policy in computational physics & chemistry, and Rights, The Hague, The Netherlands Advisor, Principal Department of General van’t Hoff Institute for Molecular Sci- Policy Affairs, Ministry of Defence, The Dr. Johan van Klinken, formerly ence, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands Researcher in Nuclear Physics, The Netherlands Netherlands Amb. Mohamed Shaker, Vice Chairman, Amb. Sergey Batsanov, Director, Geneva Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs Dr. Karel Koster, Coordinator, Nether- Office of International Pugwash; Mem- (ECFA), Cairo; Chairman, Sawiris Foun- lands Support Campaign Mayors for ber, Pugwash CBW Steering Committee; dation for Social Development; Chair- Peace, Project on European Nuclear Non- Senior Consultant, Geneva Centre for the man, Regional Information Technology Proliferation/Netherlands; Executive, Democratic Control of Armed Forces Institute (RITI) Middle Powers Initiative; European (DCAF) Coordinator, Parliamentarians Network Dr. Bart van der Sijde, Member, Nether- Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell, Executive Director, for Nuclear Disarmament; Advisory lands Pugwash Group; Adviser, Peace Pugwash Conferences on Science and Committee, IPPNW/Netherlands Center, Eindhoven University of Technol- World Affairs, Washington, DC, USA; ogy, and Editor of the Peace Center’s Prof. Saideh Lotfian, Associate Professor Member, Pugwash Executive Committee journal of Political Science, and Associate Dean Prof. Francesco Calogero, Member, Pug- for Research, Faculty of Law and Politi- Mr. Ted Whiteside, Head, WMD Centre, wash Council; Professor of Theoretical cal Science, University of Tehran, Iran NATO HQ, Defence Policy and Planning Physics, University of Rome “La Division, Brussels, Belgium Arend Meerburg, retired; Advisor to the Sapienza”, Rome, Italy Security Policy Department, Ministry of Amb. Paul Wilke, Ministry of Foreign Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Secretary- Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands; Mem- Affairs, The Netherlands General, Pugwash Conferences on Sci- ber, Pugwash Netherlands; Member, Amb. Bozorgmehr Ziaran, Delegation of ence and World Affairs; Member, Pug- Informal Expert Group on Global Secu- the Islamic Republic of Iran to the wash Executive Committee; Professor of rity Matters OPCW, The Hague, The Netherlands Mathematical Physics, University of Dr. Steven Miller, Director, International Milan, Italy; Director, Program on Disar- Dr. Bob van der Zwaan, Senior Scientific Security Program, Center for Science & mament and International Security, Lan- Researcher, Energy Research Center of International Affairs (CSIA), Harvard dau Network – Centro Volta, Como, the Netherlands (ECN), Amsterdam University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, Italy USA; Editor-in-Chief, International Secu- PUGWASH STAFF Dr. Eric T. Ferguson, Secretary of Pug- rity; Member, Pugwash Council; Co- wash Netherlands; Consultant on Energy Chair, U.S. Pugwash Group Claudia Vaughn, Program Coordinator, and Development, MacFergus bv, Zeist, Pugwash Conferences, via della Lungara Dr. Götz Neuneck, Physicist, and Mem- Netherlands 10, I-00165 Rome, Italy, Tel. (++39-06) ber, Pugwash Council; Project Leader, 687-2606, Fax: (++39-06) 687-8376, Prof. Georg Frerks, Professor of Conflict “Interdisciplinary Research Group Disar- Mobile: (++39-333) 456-6661, E-mail: Prevention and Conflict Management, mament, Arms Control and New Tech- [email protected] Centre for Conflict Studies, Utrecht Uni- nologies”, Institute for Peace Research versity, The Netherlands; Professor of and Security Policy (IFSH), Hamburg, Disaster Studies, Wageningen University; Germany; Member, Council of the Ger- Chairman, Pugwash Nederland man Physical Society (DPG) and Chair- man of their Working Group “Physics Mr. Jörn Harry, Independent Adviser, and Disarmament” in the Deutsche Nuclear Safeguards and Non-Prolifera- Physikalische Gesselschaft tion, Scheveningen, The Netherlands; Honorary Member of the European Safe- Dr Arthur Petersen, Senior Policy Analyst guards Research and Development Asso- and Director, Methodology & Modeling ciation (ESARDA); Fellow of the Institute Program, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven,

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 51 SPECIAL SECTION

Papers from the Pugwash Study Group: Threats without enemies: the security aspects of HIV/AIDS

Marie Muller and Gwyn Prins

IV/AIDS represents a cate- This was approved in 2003. Looking not arrive, of squandering money as gory of new challenges to back, we realise that we knew very part of an “AIDS Industry”. HHuman Security that may little at the time about the epidemic The first workshop, held in Feb- be grouped under the heading of and about its security aspects. Some ruary 2004 at Betty’s Bay, Cape, was threats without enemies. There is no of us—the small group that forms the attended by nine persons and was question that it is a threat to human core of the study group – had some designed to be exploratory. Both security. It is a security threat as expertise on aspects relating to the South Africans and experts from destabilising as any war; it has enor- issue and some background in fields abroad came and included were some mous social, economic and political relevant to the problem. Two mem- of the foremost experts. The discus- implications and has been recognised bers of the group come from a med- sion was extremely worthwhile and as a security threat by the Security ical/hard sciences background with the way forward became much Council of the United Nations in thorough grounding in biochemistry clearer to us, the core group. terms of Resolution 1308 of 2000. and physiology—and had some very The second workshop took place Southern Africa is the hardest hit good contacts in the virology field. in June of the same year at Mabula by the epidemic; South Africa, not Other members, had some back- Lodge, Limpopo (near the the hardest, but very hard. In South ground and expertise in the security Pretoria/Gauteng area). Seventeen Africa the life expectancy has gone field. We knew without a doubt that persons attended, again including down from sixty to forty-seven in just the issue required an interdisciplinary both South Africans and colleagues a decade. It has also been said that approach and that we could provide from abroad. However, the venue the epidemic has become the most that between us. was chosen specifically because it politicised issue in present-day South We decided to start with a very would be easier for a number of per- Africa. Apart from the enormous small workshop, held in the holiday sons from the Gauteng area to social, economic and political conse- cottages belonging to our parents. attend. The workshop was intended quences, the HIV/AIDS epidemic will With no funding in place yet, we to focus much more specifically on have a range of security consequences were prepared to foot the food and the security aspects, including the for South Africa, some of which in incidentals bill personally. Partici- military angle, but also to highlight the “new” human security meaning pants were warned that they might the micro-nutritional aspect of com- of the word and others in the “old have to pay for travel themselves if bating the epidemic. It also further fashioned” sense of the term. funding did not come through. Fortu- explored the possibilities of model- As a result of the seriousness of nately, funding came through shortly ling and statistical issues. the HIV/AIDS epidemic for South before the workshop. But we did run The third workshop in the Study and Southern Africa, but also its the workshop on a shoestring, we Group “Threats without enemies” growing impact elsewhere, in the so- made beds and cooked and partici- Series took place in April 2005 in called second wave countries,1 the pants helped with the dishes. The Gordon’s Bay, east of Cape Town. By South African Pugwash Group irony is that we were later accused by this time the core group was con- requested the Pugwash Council that a the journalist, Rian Malan, who vinced that it was important to con- study group be established to deal accepted the invitation to attend, but vey lessons to, but also to learn from with this “threat without enemy”. on the day and without apology, did others in the so-called “second wave”

52 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Special Section: Papers from the Study Group on HIV/AIDS countries, such as India. The group of organised by the President of Pug- been held by the South African twenty-three included two colleagues wash, Professor Swaminathan, in co- Group to further disseminate results. from that country and afforded an operation with the core group. The What is contained here are some opportunity to begin to think com- workshop afforded excellent oppor- of the most pertinent of contributions paratively. The workshop also fur- tunity to exchange experiences and made at these workshops. It is hoped ther explored the modelling angle expertise between the mainly South that their publication here will con- and heard interesting research find- African core group and their Indian tribute to filling some gaps in knowl- ings pertaining to vectoring patterns. colleagues, but the invitation of oth- edge and understanding of the epi- The next workshop, in September ers including other Africans (from demic, will lead to some new ways of 2005, was a joint undertaking by the Uganda and Kenya) broadened the thinking about the problem and to core group—composed mainly but perspective even further. the better management of it globally. not exclusively of Pugwash South By the end of the series, the Study In closing, the Study Group and African members – and members of Group believed that it had really the Pugwash Conferences would like the Pugwash group that had been much deepened and broadened its to express their thanks to Stephen convening workshops on Science and understanding of the issue. A number Heintz, Nancy Muirhead and Ethics. In this workshop, held in Cor- of by-products had also resulted from Priscilla Lewis of the Rockefeller sica, the focus would be specifically the process and some meaningful Brothers Fund in New York for their on the moral-ethical aspects relating contacts, networks and research support of our efforts. to the epidemic and responses to it. arrangements had come out of the The perspective was further broad- workshops. At the annual Pugwash NOTE 1 These are north-eastern and west ened by the inclusion of persons conferences that took place in the Africa, Russia and surrounding coun- working in the field of HIV/AIDS in course of the series, Working Group tries en especially India and China. The the Arab world. 6 gave opportunity to the Study first wave of large scale infections was The fifth and final workshop in Group to report on progress and to over central and southern Africa. the current series took place in Chen- interact with other Pugwashites. 2 Special thanks to Celeste LeRoux, nai, India in April 2006. It was Some local, small seminars had also Pugwash research assistant, for addi- tional editing of these papers.

(left to right) Marie Muller, Alan Whiteside, Hussein Solomon, Lorraine Dodd, Gus Stewart, Gwyn Prins, Mary Crewe, and Lindy Heinecken at Betty’s Bay workshop, February 2004 PHOTO BY NOLA DIPPENAAR

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 53 Some important and significant epidemiological In order to really deal with the features and risk determinants of the HIV HIV/AIDS and manage and control it epidemic in Southern Africa appropriately, it is imperative that the disease and the epidemic need to be Dr Clive Evian made more visible and tangible and that we need to face up to its realities, ‘warts and all’ and honestly face and AIDS Management and Support matology etc. However, ‘national col- admit to it. By colluding with the and JHB Hospital HIV Clinic lective denial’, misinformation and silence we are colluding with the Despite the severity and magnitude of disinformation, scandal , myth and virus. the HIV epidemic, one of the most misconception, inappropriate use of HIV is also a long term epidemic, outstanding and in my opinion most public media and political interfer- maybe a 100-200 year or more phe- critical features of the epidemic is its ence (all of these features exemplified nomena, and changes in all aspects silence and invisibility. This invisibil- in South Africa) all contribute signifi- (the spread of HIV, the social deter- ity is one of the most unique and cantly to keeping this disease away minants of HIV infection, the impact intractable aspects of the epidemic from the public eye and in turn prop- of interventions, the impact of the and which ultimately mitigates agate its spread. epidemic itself) are ‘long wave’ events against its control and management. and we should not expect short term Factors promoting this phenomenon success or evidence of impact. Even include the following: Despite the severity and magnitude the changes in the epidemic or the perception of it, or in the society • Most people are unaware that they of the HIV epidemic, one of the response to it will often be somewhat have HIV and have not been tested most outstanding and most critical hidden and silent for a long time. We • Those who know of their HIV posi- need decades rather than years into features of the epidemic is its tive status still choose to keep this the future to know and understand fact a secret from their partners, silence and invisibility....By this change and we should therefore family members, friends and from not jump to conclusions too soon or colluding with the silence we are the society at large too early. • The diseases resulting from colluding with the virus. The paper presented illustrated HIV/AIDS can masquerade as com- various aspects of the South African mon everyday conditions such as epidemic highlighting various epi- skin rashes, pneumonia, diarrhoea, demiological features. weight loss TB etc Not only is there a ‘silence’ Graph 1 below, highlights the • With severe illness or incapacity or around the disease and the epidemic dynamic of the epidemic by way of a death the reasons are often related in general, but there is often, in many hypothetical epidemic curve attempt- to the above non-specific disease countries especially in the higher ing to follow the epidemic over a 25 entities (TB, pneumonia etc) prevalence ones, a deficiency in the year period from its onset, initially description of the epidemic i.e. it’s epi- developing an HIV epidemic curve, • In many situations it is illegal to demiology – how the disease is dis- followed by an illness epidemic and divulge someone else’s HIV status tributed, in whom and for what rea- then the resulting mortality. It also without their permission son. The stigma and political should be noted that the plateau of • Health care personnel are not per- overtures often promote a denial as to the HIV curve is partly due to the mitted to divulge an HIV diagnosis who are most vulnerable, who are increasing mortality and should not without the person’s permission. most affected and the reasons for this. be regarded as a control of the epi- There are many good and bad Lack of research into the sexual- demic until the HIV epidemic curve reasons why the above occur, e.g. ity or sexual practices of those most reduces systematically and persis- stigma, fear, denial, ignorance, the affected further promotes denial and tently over time. nature of the disease and its sympto- misconception. Graph 2 below presents data col-

54 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Special Section: Papers from the Study Group on HIV/AIDS lected by the Department of Health Graph 11: on the HIV prevalence among preg- nant women attending public health services (generally a lower socio-eco- nomic sector of the society). The sur- veillance data collected since 1990 shows a typical epidemic curve. Data of this nature serve best as an indica- tor of epidemic trends rather than of actual prevalence rates among the general population, as ante-natal data excludes men, non-pregnant women and age groups outside of the reproductive ages. In addition, ante- natal data in the teenage years may not be typical of non-pregnant 2 teenage girls. Graph 2 : Furthermore the trend curve pro- vided by this data suggests that the impact of the epidemic is set to rise 3 to 4 fold from the current impact i.e. the likely impact of the epidemic (deaths, serious illness, hospital bur- den, economic burden, etc) is reflec- tive of the epidemic size as it was approximately 10 years ago (as it takes about 10 years from infection to death). Since approximately 2005 the epidemic has risen 3-4 fold, and therefore the impact will rise this magnitude given no substantial impact of the ARV rollout. Graph 3 below illustrates the provincial variation in HIV preva- Graph 33: lence, and Graph 4 the age specific HIV prevalence in the ante-natal sur- vey highlighting the diverse nature of HIV epidemics, and helps to illustrate the point that national epidemics are not a homogenous or generaliseable phenomena, but rather a conglomer- ation of many micro-epidemics. HIV prevalence can change significantly in different provinces, cities and even suburbs within cities. The HIV epidemic is determined by many non-biological influences such as social stability, population

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 55 Special Section: Papers from the Study Group on HIV/AIDS

Graph 44: the vulnerability of teenage girls and young women compared to boys and men. The study reveals a common finding whereby teenage girls get infected much more rapidly and their overall prevalence is much higher than the boys in similar population groups. As HIV is generally a poorly transmitted virus (see below), it is therefore clear that these girls must be acquiring HIV from older men, and in many situations these men are considerably older. Teenage girls and young female adults living in socially disadvantaged situations are highly vulnerable to the sexual exploitation of older men (men who are also Graph 55: socially dislocated or displaced). This social phenomena sets up high preva- lence levels in young women and this in turn provides an artificial boost to the epidemic (young adults being most sexually adventurous). Transac- tional sex may be one of the most important determinants of high prevalent epidemic and more research is needed in this context. Men tend to get infected at a rela- tively older age compared to women i.e. the peak prevalence in women is in the 25-29 year age band and in men it tends to be in the 30-34 year band. Graphs 6-106 below illustrate the following epidemiological fea- tures in South Africa mobility and migration, gender Graph 4 further illustrates the • HIV is invariably higher among equality and empowerment, educa- very serious impact of HIV on contract employees compared to tion and literacy, economic empower- teenage girls i.e. a 16% prevalence permanent employees. This vulner- ment and poverty, substance use and and a severe rise in infection in the ability is likely to be due to social abuse etc. Prevalence may also differ next age group (20-24 yrs) to instability and issues relating to significantly in different gender, age, approximately 31% i.e the 2000 15- migrancy and possibly also to edu- race, groups etc. 19 year prevalence has almost dou- cation and literacy levels. Contract In addressing the epidemic it is bled by 2004 in the next age cohort, employees in South Africa in the important to understand these influ- highlighting the ‘malignant’ nature of main tend to be of a lower skill ences and determinants and to fur- the epidemic among young women. level and often include security, ther ‘deconstruct’ these and then take Graph 5 illustrates a study done cleaners, canteen workers and appropriate steps to counteract these by the Reproductive Health Research unskilled and semi-skilled labour. epidemiological forces Unit (RHRU) and further highlights

56 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Special Section: Papers from the Study Group on HIV/AIDS

• HIV prevalence is higher among Graph 6: lower income or skill groups and lower in the higher income groups. This linear relationship is well illus- trated in Graph X i.e. a prevalence study of over 6000 employees across 8 operations in a manufac- turing company • Low income or contract women employees tend to be more vulnera- ble than their male counterparts • Seasonal employees similar to con- tract employees are also highly vul- nerable suggesting that migration and mobility are important deter- minants of risk • Employees living in hostel accom-

modation – often single sex hostels Graph 7: in South Africa, are also likely to be more vulnerable to HIV infection.

HIV is generally a poorly trans- mitted virus compared to other pathogens. It is generally accepted that the risk of HIV transmission on a single sexual exposure to HIV is very low i.e less than 1% and consid- erably less in most circumstances. The lack of such knowledge has both positive and negative implications. On the positive side, if people believe HIV is more infectious they are less likely to chance their luck. However, Graph 8: if most people believe HIV is very infectious (which most do indeed believe) then most people in high prevalent countries believe that they must have acquired HIV. This stems from the fact that in these circum- stances there must be a very high prevalence of multiple partner sexual activity. As such the natural conclu- sion of most is that they probably have acquired HIV. Believing one has HIV can be a very disempowering process whereby one may not listen to preventive messages or not believe

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 57 Special Section: Papers from the Study Group on HIV/AIDS

Graph 9: and in South Africa the political influence has been very damaging and misleading. It is therefore imper- ative that the epidemiological fea- tures and aspects of this epidemic are clearly appreciated and understood. Research in this context is imper- ative even if it means unravelling epi- demic determinants which are embar- rassing or unpopular or which point to deep fault lines in the society. However, unless these determinants are revealed, and placed in the public domain and debate, the epidemic is likely to rage on for many more Graph 10: decades.

—————— 1 Hypothetical epidemic curve of the first 20-25 years of an HIV epidemic as typi- cally seen in a Southern African country 2 HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending public health services in South Africa 1990-2004. Depart- ment of Health South Africa 2004 3 HIV prevalence among pregnant women in South Africa – Provincial prevalence. Department of Health South Africa 2004 4 HIV prevalence among pregnant women in South Africa – Age specific HIV prevalence 2000-2004. Depart- ment of Health South Africa 2004 there is any point in HIV prevention, meaning of this prevalence in terms 5 National HIV and Sexual Behavior Sur- and for many this is a belief in a of their own risk. vey of 15-24 year old South African Youth, Reproductive Health Research ‘hopeless life situation’ or a ‘death The nature of the HIV virus and Unit, University of Witwatersrand 2003 sentence’. Avoidance of HIV testing the disease lends itself to myths and 6 HIV prevalence studies done in work- for fear of finding out the worst pre- misconception, unfounded claims of places in various corporations in South- vents many from having an HIV test treatment success or reasons why the ern Africa by Author (C. Evian 2000- and in fact finding out that they are prevalence is higher or lower in dif- 2005) actually HIV negative. This latter ferent areas or communities or coun- finding would help promote more tries. Sexually transmitted diseases responsible sexual behaviour or in have always been associated with the very least make people more stigma and or cultural myth or pun- receptive to HIV prevention educa- ishment or ancestral spirits. HIV also tion and awareness. It is therefore finds a home in various religious atti- critical that individuals in groups tudes and beliefs. Vested economic or such as workplaces, educational insti- commercial interests also have their tutions, schools, etc know the pre- impact. Media portrayal also forms vailing HIV prevalence and the community perceptions and attitudes

58 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 The Political Management of the dying of AIDS at a rate equivalent of AIDS Epidemic in South Africa more than one 11 September 2001 attack on South Africans every three Dr Pieter Fourie days, 365 days a year—and this num- Department of Politics & Governance, University of Johannesburg ber is steadily increasing. Yet the South African government has not declared AIDS a national emergency, Introduction demic (race relations, sexual violence and (to take the analogy even further) Since AIDS first appeared in the and cultural factors), South Africans for some years now President Thabo country in 1982 there have been will continue to suffer the ravages of Mbeki has been casting doubt on the numerous good policy documents the epidemic, nullifying some recent existence of the terrorist aeroplanes written by successive South African successes of provinces and local gov- themselves. More than a decade into governments—yet the epidemic ernments in demonstrating some pol- the democratic South African politi- shows little sign of abating. This icy implementation capacity. cal dispensation, the government is still prevaricating on the rollout of paper demonstrates that successive A very political epidemic South African governments have anti-retroviral drugs (ARVs) to peo- According to the Joint United defined the policy problem in differ- ple living with the virus, despite court Nations Programme on HIV and ent ways: moving from a moralistic action on more than one occasion AIDS (UNAIDS 2004), more than to a biomedical approach, the most ordering the state to provide these 5.3 million South Africans were HIV- recent public policy response has drugs as a basic human right to positive at the end of 2003; AIDS is been to (discursively at least) view health. killing the population at a rate of the epidemic as a developmental Since AIDS first made its appear- between 600 and 1,000 people each and human rights-based problem. ance in this country in 1982, South day; the country will have around However, despite the drafting of Africa’s policy response to HIV and two million AIDS orphans by 2010; broadly inclusive and well-conceptu- AIDS has been ineffectual, despite the and between 1,400 and 2,000 addi- alised policies, the previous as well as formulation and ostensible introduc- tional South Africans are becoming the current South African govern- tion of several public policy HIV and infected daily. ments suffer from a crisis of imple- AIDS interventions by consecutive The sad irony is that AIDS was mentation. This is the result of a fail- governments. Analysts are in agree- late in arriving in South Africa. In ure on the part of South African ment that national infection rates will 1990 only 0.1 per cent of all South governments to consistently and cor- only stabilise after 2006—this will Africans were HIV-positive; a mere rectly define the AIDS policy problem not be on account of effective poli- 10 years later this number had cata- itself. This has resulted in a contested cies, however, but rather as a conse- pulted to 11.7 per cent, with almost policy environment, particularly in quence of the natural maturation of 25 per cent of all pregnant women terms of the appropriate policy the epidemic. However, stabilisation tested for the HI virus at antenatal responses required. As a conse- does not mean that the impact of clinics having sero-converted quence, the initial close relationship HIV and AIDS in South Africa will (Dorrington & Johnson 2002:34). between the new South African gov- decrease: at the household level fami- Clearly, the relative isolation result- ernment and AIDS civil society has lies will have to cope with the ongo- ing from apartheid initially shielded been badly eroded. Civil society has ing tragedy of losing loved ones, many of us from the vectors of infec- turned to a strategy of bypassing the whilst the economy will continue to tion, whilst at the same time insidi- national government altogether, by suffer under the impact of the epi- ously creating a fertile breeding appealing to the courts in an effort to demic. By this year (2006), in the ground for a future South African ensure the implementation of AIDS absence of effective treatment HIV epidemic. policies. and AIDS are expected to infect more South Africans are living in an all The paper concludes that, unless than 600,000 people every year in too visible killing field. If UNAIDS public policy makers address the South Africa, and since these people statistics are to be believed, we are structural drivers of the AIDS epi- are—in the absence of ARVs—sure to

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die within a few years, the imperative to effectively implement an appropri- ate public programmatic response is clear. Some commentators have claimed that AIDS has become one burden too many for the democratic South African government; that its failure to respond effectively to the epidemic is due to the fact that, given the socio-economic and cultural risk environment within which we live and the structural variables that need to be addressed in order to turn the situation around, HIV and AIDS have served as cruel indicators of the state’s impotence in dealing with a Gwyn Prins and Pieter Fourie. crisis of this scale. Rather than focusing on the tech- • What public policies have been for- preceding stages in the policy nical contents of actual AIDS public mulated to combat the disease? process. This is the analytical ideal, policy documents (which since 1992 • What—if any—were the gaps in the namely that the policy process have not been contentious) the main policy formulation and implemen- remains a generic process, where one focus of this paper is the environment tation process? stage in the process is not completed and the process of policy making and and left behind before moving on and • What structural impediments were implementation itself. It is the aim of exploring the next phase—there is a and remain present that might have this paper to identify the reasons for continual re-conceptualisation and and continue to sabotage the suc- the failure of public HIV and AIDS reshaping of the policy response to cessful implementation of appropri- policies in South Africa. In order to any public problem. However, the ate policies? improve on the process that is policy problem identification stage, since it making (identification of the problem, • How should public policy on this is the motive force for the entire pol- setting the policy agenda, formulat- issue be conceptualised, formu- icy process, is a particularly seminal ing, implementing and evaluating lated, implemented and evaluated step along the way. programmatic responses) one should differently in an effort to make such In a society like South Africa, evaluate the instances of public policy policies more effective? where the policy problem of AIDS making on AIDS in the past as well as first made it onto the public agenda The phase/stage approach to in the present. This should be done in policy making in the early 1980s, the identification an effort to ascertain which inappro- of the policy problem was particu- The problem identification stage of priate or erroneous policies were for- larly important given the duration of the policy making process on HIV mulated in the past, and why. Armed this problem. The challenge of HIV and AIDS in South Africa is at the with such systematically gathered and AIDS did not appear on the heart of the current as well as previ- information, one would be better scene more than two decades ago ous governments’ difficulties in the placed to improve the quality of pub- only to be challenged by a single appropriate implementation of state lic policy making on this issue. This is value set or normative policy envi- responses to the epidemic. Policy done to find some answers to a num- ronment which then drafted a making and implementation is an ber of questions: response to that policy problem. iterative process, which means that • Has the public policy response to Rather, HIV and AIDS remained a there is a continual re-evaluation of HIV and AIDS in South Africa feature of the policy environment and the appropriateness and accuracy of since 1982 been effective? continue to exist to this day. This fact

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has important implications for the AIDS as an excuse to exclude foreign rights approach to politics and eco- manner in which South African soci- mine workers and in some instances nomics in the country, and applied ety can and have been responding to blaming liberation movements for this new and evolving value set to the this epidemic since 1982—through infiltrating South African society conceptualisation of a response to conflict, ideological strife, value shifts with AIDS as a new weapon. HIV and AIDS in South Africa. This and immense socio-political change. As AIDS entered white South political evolution culminated in the By way of analogy: in the stage pro- African society, the state increasingly National AIDS Co-ordinating Com- duction of HIV and AIDS in South made use of biomedical discourse to mittee of South Africa (NACOSA) Africa the main variable (the epi- counter its effects. Rather than to dis- process of 1992-1994, which demic) has remained and even wors- mantle the legal and social infrastruc- entrenched the view that AIDS was to ened, but at the same time the décor ture of apartheid, which com- be a developmental and human rights against which it operated (the socio- issue or problem in South Africa, and political policy environment) experi- led to the drafting of the democratic enced radical changes. This has had The NAP was morally and National AIDS Plan (NAP) of 1994 an immense impact on the manner in programmatically over-ambitious: it with these values in mind. which the state (through different The discursive policy environ- governments) has defined the very assumed the presence of sufficient ment and problem identification policy problem of AIDS itself. resources and capacity to rapidly mould thus shifted from blaming and targeting infected carriers of the HIV Deadly dialectics: apartheid and effectively counter the virus to the conceptualisation of a and the evolution of the South African epidemic epidemic. biomedical response in the late 1980s to the entrenchment of a human During the National Party (NP) gov- rights-based approach in the 1990s. ernment’s handling of the epidemic pounded the sexual risk factors for By the time the Mandela government (1982-1994) HIV and AIDS was first all South Africans, the government took office in 1994, this value set was defined as a moral issue. This led to gradually reconceptualised AIDS as a deeply entrenched, not only as the an unwritten policy response steeped biomedical problem, creating medical high political value underpinning the in a moralist discourse: the real prob- bodies and legislation to facilitate a manner in which AIDS would be seen lem that needed to be addressed was biomedical response to the growing by the government, but also in terms not so much a biomedical response epidemic. As political changes of the programmatic response that combating a virus, rather the occurred in the late 1980s, this was drafted in 1994. However, the immoral actions of homosexuals, moral-biomedical response policy NAP was morally and programmati- intravenous drug users, commercial environment and problem conceptu- cally over-ambitious: it assumed the sex workers and black migrant work- alisation also shifted: by the early presence of sufficient resources and ers were blamed for the spread of the 1990s it was clear that radical consti- capacity to rapidly and effectively epidemic. Legal measures were tutional changes were afoot, and this counter the epidemic. When this did enacted to punish these four groups led the government to allow greater not happen, the Mandela govern- within the rest of ‘normal’ South room for human rights-based per- ment quickly reverted to a biomed- African society. As AIDS made its spectives on the epidemic to enter the ical conceptualisation of the AIDS way into normal society, however, the policy discourse. As social values policy problem. The search was on identification of the policy problem were changing on the high political for a quick fix for AIDS, which was shifted: as more and more South level, so too did the response impera- only one policy problem among Africans became the victims of AIDS, tives of the executive branch of gov- many. Medical science held the the growing epidemic became ernment. The latter’s status in South promise for such a rapid solution, increasingly identified with the black African politics had to accommodate and in its haste to resolve the AIDS sector of society. This served to previously excluded sectors of society: policy problem, the Mandela govern- racialise and politicise the epidemic, the liberation movements and AIDS ment erred, and erred again. with the apartheid government using civil society embraced the new human The Virodene debacle (1997),

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coupled with the obduracy resulting confusion in the policy environment responsibility to respond?’, ‘What from the government’s mishandling that this has created is made worse should this response look like?’, ‘Who of the Sarafina II scandal (1996) by the fact that Mbeki and his health is to be held accountable?’ and so on effectively corrupted the AIDS policy ministry seem to be increasingly iso- remain unanswerable—and (in a dis- environment to this day: in a desper- lated within the broader governing cursive environment caught between ate attempt to embrace the promise alliance: the African National Con- racism and political correctness) ulti- of medical science, and in failing to gress (ANC’s) own governing part- mately closed to real discourse. do so, the Mandela government ners and the ANC provincial AIDS Rather, the AIDS policy environment reconceptualised the AIDS policy managers are acting in contravention degenerates—as it has in this coun- problem yet again. This reconceptu- of the national government’s pre- try—into a political arena for blame alisation was not, however, made scriptions. A tacit alliance has been and efforts at auto-exculpation. explicit: whilst maintaining the developing from below, with mem- Significantly, the public gaps that human rights discourse surrounding bers of South Africa’s AIDS civil soci- this situation creates have been filled the epidemic, the government in ety working with sub-national by actors for the most part outside of 1998 abandoned its intentions of (provincial) governments in an effort government. Under the NP govern- supplying rape survivors with ARVs, to ensure the rollout of treatment ment the absence of a coherent and clearly backtracking on a human strategies. appropriately conceptualised policy rights orientation in the process. The Within this context, HIV and response led to the mobilisation of tension that this created between the AIDS has become probably the most three key sets of other policy actors: government and the South African politicised issue in South African the private sector (the mining indus- AIDS civil society soon became a gulf society. What should be a relatively try in particular), the biomedical when the state in 1999 exacerbated simple response, namely the defini- community and the legal fraternity the policy problem by reneging on its tion of the policy problem in biomed- came to be important actors and intention not to declare AIDS a med- ical terms and the response emanat- agents in the policy environment. ically notifiable disease. The scale of ing from a human rights perspective, Even within the public sector, seg- the AIDS epidemic and the reality of was not implemented. Instead, the ments of the health institutions the pragmatism required to respond public sector in this country remains responded to contradict the erro- effectively and appropriately became for all intents and purposes at war neous or ineffective responses of the one burden too many for the new with itself. Mbeki and his senior national government. Under the suc- South African government. health technocrats continue to phrase cessive ANC governments, this situa- This has remained the situation the AIDS policy problem in discourse tion has continued: most recently since the Mbeki government took that run counter to the rest of South provincial ANC governments have office in 1999. Mbeki has made the African and international society. The been mobilising in an effort to get situation worse by questioning the very policy problem remains an area localised treatment responses off the fundamental tenets of medical sci- of contention. ground, whereas the South African ence, forcing politics to enter the bio- The continued controversy sur- AIDS civil society increasingly has medical domain and obdurately rounding the conceptualisation of the been making use of legal strategies to refusing to make a graceful exit. A AIDS policy problem itself has ren- force the government into action. key feature of Mbeki’s handling of dered the other stages of the policy This has led to a situation where the the AIDS policy problem has been his making environment a web of indeci- government has actually been reconceptualisation of the problem as sion, resulting in ineffective as well as bypassed: civil society has taken the a monetary issue: blaming large phar- inconsistent policy implementation. If AIDS fight straight to the courts, maceutical companies and the profit there is no certainty as to what the which then use constitutional mea- motive, the Mbeki government has policy problem is, then it becomes sures to get the government to fulfil used paranoid language in an effort impossible for the public sector to its constitutional obligations in terms to deflect the responsibility for an respond coherently and consistently. of the provision of health measures. appropriate treatment response to the Answers to the questions ‘Who/what Gradually then the policy envi- epidemic away from the state. The is the enemy?’, ‘Who should take ronment seems to be shifting towards

62 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Special Section: Papers from the Study Group on HIV/AIDS

the operationalisation of the NAP Time and again the South African Quo vadis AIDS policy in South and the Strategic Plan for the rollout government acts on a proclivity to Africa? of ARV drugs (which remain couched want to monopolise such implemen- Three clusters of issues in particular in the human rights approach estab- tation, and when this fails, it reverts require further enquiry—both in the lished in the early 1990s). Although to casting blame on extra-govern- context of HIV and AIDS in South this is creating greater effectiveness in mental forces. Instead of allowing the Africa as well as in the context of the achievement for the rights of PWAs, explicit bottom-up implementation other policy issues: there still is no great rapprochement of these appropriate policy docu- Firstly, in terms of policy imple- between the high levels of national ments, the government has insisted mentation specifically, the problem government on the one hand, and the on a top-down approach. This cre- identification phase has been demon- broader AIDS civil society on the ates a situation where the rest of the strated to be an essential and under- other. The result has been some suc- South African AIDS community is valued step in the process of AIDS cesses in the rollout of treatment for not only virtually excluded from policy making. Further enquiry PWAs, but the reality remains one implementation; it also excuses these should explore manners in which where these advances come only potential policy agents from account- policy actors can and should attain slowly and intermittently. Although ability of the policies’ contents. sufficient consensus on the conceptu- the South African government has The result is inevitable failure on alisation of HIV and AIDS as a policy now been forced by the courts to the part of the government to imple- issue. Only in identifying a common implement the terms of the Strategic ment plans effectively, which opens it conception of a policy problem is the Plan for the rollout of ARV drugs, the to attack from AIDS civil society. appropriate and effective formula- policy agenda regarding HIV and And soon this context recreates the tion, adoption, implementation and AIDS remains as contested as ever. patterns of the past: counter-attack, evaluation of policies assured. The Treatment Action Campaign blame, the invocation of racist poli- HIV and AIDS have become (TAC) in 1998 entered the policy envi- tics, and a total breakdown in any emblematic in South Africa as an ronment as a key policy entrepreneur, possible constructive engagement in area of contention in the specific case but the chasm between itself and the the policy environment. This also of bringing policies to fruition government remains as wide as ever. means that the policy evaluation through implementation. The break- Ironically, actual policy formula- phase becomes deeply flawed, with down between policy and implemen- tion has gone relatively smoothly the government refusing to acknowl- tation needs further exploration. His- since the NACOSA process of 1992- edge regular benchmarks for policy tory has taught us that a bottom-up 1994, which led to the formulation of success or failure, such as biomedical approach to policy implementation the NAP of 1994. The iterative peer review, statistical measures and has led to the greatest effectiveness of process of such formulation and so on. In embracing the latter, the policies—even in spite of opposition reformulation has been successful on South African AIDS civil society from central government. Further more than one occasion—first with effectively places itself in a different research needs to be done on how the National Health Review in 1997, evaluatory paradigm to that of the policy actors in- and outside of gov- which established the Government government, who then defensively ernment can co-operate in an effort AIDS Action Plan (GAAP) in 1998, accuses civil society of Eurocentrism to make policy implementation more and then again with the drafting of or blatant racism. Again it is worth effective. This is the case particularly the Strategic Plan in 1999/2000. Key noting that this environment of when evaluating the role of provin- to the success of these processes of strong policy contestation does not cial and local governments, as well as reformulation has been the fact that reflect the contents of the actual poli- members of civil society (NGOs and they were so inclusive of all sectors of cies; rather, the manner in which CBOs in particular). the South African AIDS community. these policies are or are not imple- The second cluster of issues relate However, the inclusiveness of the pol- mented become the arena for contes- to the relationship between the gov- icy formulation and adoption phases tation—and all of this is the result of ernment and other policy actors and has never been followed through at antagonistic definitions of the actual agents. Since the mid-1990s a chasm the level of policy implementation. AIDS policy problem itself. has appeared between the govern-

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ment’s and AIDS civil society’s conducted to explore manners in official opposition in the South respective perspectives on the most which technical knowledge and dis- African Parliament as a ‘slap in the appropriate way forward for AIDS courses can be democratised in an face’ of PWAs (Washington Post 29 policy design: the government has effort to preclude such abuse of cer- April 2004). The TAC also expressed been pushing for the continual draft- tain epistemologies. disappointment with the President’s ing of AIDS prevention strategies, AIDS has become a metaphor for decision, citing the Minister’s record whereas the TAC in particular has the entire gamut of societal ills facing of tardy implementation of HIV and been emphasising the importance of South Africa. There is significant AIDS policies. treatment strategies. Increasingly scope for exploring these metaphors If newspaper reports are to be analysts are in agreement that these in an effort to enable social learning believed, such opposition to Mbeki’s two strategies (AIDS prevention and or insight from HIV and AIDS. In decision to reappoint Tshabalala- AIDS treatment) should not be seen this manner the epidemic might actu- Msimang also came from within the in zero-sum, but rather in comple- ally lead to some national introspec- National Department of Health itself, mentary terms. This is an under- tion about the deeper structural or with the Head of the government’s researched area in terms of the litera- systemic issues that plague our soci- AIDS Directorate, Dr Nono Similela, ture on AIDS policy formulation in ety. Also, sex and morality are at the resigning within weeks of Mbeki’s South Africa. centre of the South African AIDS epi- announcement (Mail & Guardian 4 The use of litigation and legisla- demic. Research on the interplay and June 2004). Within the first month of tion strategies to combating AIDS ostensible tensions between sexual the Minister’s reappointment, her his- has proven to be extremely successful relations and the context of morality torical difficulties in relating to South in operationalising the principles should continue. Africa’s AIDS civil society and the underpinning appropriate AIDS poli- AIDS has been demonstrated to broader medical community contin- cies. Litigation in particular will be an event that is the result of social ued: her Department had to face two probably continue to be used as a patterns of sexual and political inter- legal challenges from medical bodies vector to implement AIDS policies. action. Politically, apartheid has cre- representing South African health This strategy is profoundly under- ated a context of risk for all South care workers, who were unhappy researched. Successive South African Africans. Socially, however, politi- with the directives coming from the governments have used anti-intellec- cians and other policy actors and Health Department regarding job tual discourses in an effort to protect agents appear steadfast in their reti- specifications with regards to the dis- themselves from blame within the cence to address the structural vari- tribution of drugs. high political environment of public ables upon which these patterns of Any hopes of a rapprochement policy making on HIV and AIDS. interaction rest: the impact of culture, between the Minister and AIDS civil Research needs to be conducted into and the history of racism and society were dashed during the 15th the socio-political structures which exploitative gender relations. International AIDS Conference, enable the political application of this Research should be conducted to which was held in Bangkok, Thai- as a delay strategy in the implementa- explore manners in which South land, in July 2004. Tshabalala-Msi- tion of policies. Africa as a society can overcome shy- mang reacted badly to suggestions The third cluster of issues refers ing away from these issues. from UN Secretary-General Kofi to the broadly identified discursive Annan’s Special Envoy on HIV and Recent developments— environment that should be further AIDS in Africa, Dr Stephen Lewis, and the road ahead… researched. Paradoxically, the state that the South African government has used anti-intellectual arguments After the April 2004 elections, Presi- was ‘dragging its feet’ on the roll-out by applying highly technical dis- dent Mbeki reappointed Dr Manto of ARVs (Reuters NewMedia 16 July courses in an effort to exclude non- Tshabalala-Msimang for a second 2004). The Minister accused Lewis— state policy actors from exercising term as the Minister of Health. This despite his numerous visits to South the right to make statements on and explicit approval of the Minister’s Africa—of being ignorant about the define the very problem of AIDS poli- record from the Office of the Presi- South African epidemic (Sunday cies themselves. Research should be dency was immediate slammed by the Times 18 July 2004).

64 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Special Section: Papers from the Study Group on HIV/AIDS

emphasize the fact that racism was a bigger problem for South Africans. Mbeki has since then come under some criticism from the media and other policy actors, who accuse the President of once again attempting to monopolise the right to determine the public policy agenda (Cape Times 22 October 2004). In addition, Archbishop Desmond Tutu was in late November 2004 involved in a public spat with the The Gordon’s Bay workshop, April 2005. President after the Archbishop ques- tioned what he saw as the culture of This context of animosity at the venture. Citing the government’s fail- sycophancy within the ruling party, Bangkok conference was made worse ure to implement its stated intentions and Mbeki’s reticence to answer ques- by the Minister’s continued question- to have 53,000 HIV-positive South tions regarding AIDS (amongst other ing of the efficacy and safety of the Africans on ARV treatment by issues). This has led to some acrimo- use of the ARV Nevirapine for the March 2004 (the government has by nious exchanges between Tutu and purpose of preventing mother-to- October 2004 only succeeded in ANC spokespeople, as well as directly child transmission (MTCT). Despite rolling out such treatment to 15,000 with the President (Jack 2004:9). evidence to the contrary, the Minister PWAs [TAC 2004: Internet source]), Mbeki has also been criticised for not repeated her oft-stated claims that the TAC in November 2004 has once owning up to South Africa’s bad track the drug was toxic, and that its appli- again turned to the Courts to force record on sexual violence—in Octo- cation for MTCT prevention was the government to make public its ber the President launched a scathing irresponsible (Sunday Herald 18 July proposed treatment schedule. This attack on journalist Charlene Smith 2004). The public spat between the time the TAC hopes to invoke the and UNAIDS’s Deputy Director, Dr Minister and the TAC over this issue Open Democracy Act, which guaran- Kathleen Cravero, for emphasising dominated the rest of the Bangkok tees South Africans the right to view the need in the country to address the conference. The situation was exacer- the contents of all public (govern- issue of rape. Such emphases were, in bated when the Minister—citing offi- ment) documents. At the time of Mbeki’s analysis, really just racist cial obligations in South Africa— writing, this latest fracas was still attempts to discredit the new South decided to leave Bangkok after continuing (News24.com 14 Decem- Africa. attending the conference for only one ber 2004). In December 2004 elements day. This led to members of South President Mbeki has also come within the ANC also repeated their Africa’s AIDS civil society again ques- under fire for his continued silence on earlier attacks on the TAC, namely tioning Tshabalala-Msimang’s com- the AIDS epidemic. In October 2004 that the organisation is in bed with mitment to the fight against the epi- the Parliamentary opposition’s large pharmaceutical companies, demic. spokesperson on health, Ryan Coet- using poor South Africans as guinea Since the Bangkok conference, the zee, during official question time in pigs in a ploy to distribute toxic battle between the Health Depart- Parliament asked Mbeki whether the drugs to the indigent (ANC Today 17 ment and the TAC has heated up. government was not concerned that December 2004). The TAC hit back The latter has—since the announce- the high incidence of rape in South by pointing out that the government ment of the government’s Treatment Africa is fuelling the AIDS epidemic. is trying to detract attention from the Plan in November 2003—been strug- Mbeki refused to answer the ques- fact that, by the end of 2004, fewer gling to get access to the govern- tion, instead attacking Coetzee and than 20,000 people in the public sec- ment’s timetable for the actual imple- the official opposition in a thinly tor were on ARV therapy while more mentation of this latest policy veiled attempt to (once again) than 45,000 people in the private sec-

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tor have access to ARVs: ‘Those of us condoms in the fight against HIV and delivery of services where they are who can afford to have the chance to AIDS ‘when it’s clearly not working’ needed (Mail & Guardian 25 Febru- live, while poor and mainly black (News24.com 24 January 2005). ary to 3 March 2005). people die because of bureaucratic Confusing theology with sociology, Perhaps the most significant neglect. A section of the ANC leader- the Catholic Church used the most recent development in the world of ship frequently misuses the allegation recent AIDS fracas in an attempt to HIV and AIDS in South Africa of racism to cover up mistakes or lies’ drive their own anachronistic and occurred in February 2005, when the (News24.com 18 January 2005). moralistic agenda—at the expense of South African Medical Research To drive their point home, the tried and tested methods for prevent- Council announced national mortal- government around the same time ing the spread of HIV. ity figures for the country. The data pointed out that the South African By the end of January 2005 the showed that deaths amongst adults National Blood Service (SANBS) was Health Department admitted that had risen by around 60 per cent still applying outdated racist criteria their ARV roll-out programme was between 1997 and 2003, and the in deciding which blood donations to lagging. The National Department of researchers concluded that the under- accept (Sunday Independent 12 Health’s new Director for HIV and reporting of deaths related to AIDS December 2004; Mail & Guardian AIDS, Dr. Nomonde Xundu, was the greatest cause for this 10-16 December 2004). The SANBS reported that only 33,000 people increase (News24.com 18 February until early 2005 was excluding the with full-blown AIDS were receiving 2005; Sunday Independent 20 Febru- serum of black people, since such free drugs by the end of January. ary 2005). An editorial in the emi- blood had been found to contain high Xundu noted that the Department’s nent international journal Lancet (12 levels of HIV. The vitriol that resulted biggest challenge was to get the February 2005) used this information from this revelation of racial profiling human resources capacity up to the to lambast the Mbeki government for in the health services eventually led to level where it needs to be—the its continued denialism and foot- the institution of a more expensive Health Department set a goal of hir- dragging on the roll-out of ARV but racially blind system to make the ing 220 doctors by March 2005, but drugs: South African blood supply safer. only 111 had been found. Also, out Social stigma associated with This positive outcome was, however, of the 271 pharmacists needed to HIV/AIDS, tacitly perpetuated clouded by the re-racialising of the help roll out the ARV treatment pro- by the government’s reluctance issue of the national blood supply, gramme, only 90 were hired, and 64 to bring the crisis out in the providing the government with an of the 136 dieticians required were open and face it head on, pre- opportunity to deflect attention from hired. Members of AIDS civil society vents many from speaking out their slack roll-out of ARV treatment. reacted to this admission by saying about causes of illness and A year later, however, we once again that missed targets were rooted in a deaths of loved ones and leads seem to have fallen prey to the ‘one lack of political will from a govern- doctors to record uncontrover- step forward, two steps back’ syn- ment whose leader has in the past sial diagnoses on death certifi- drome: the SANBS in January 2006 openly shown his scepticism over the cates… The South African gov- indicated that (as it was 21 years need to make the fight against the ernment needs to stop being before, under apartheid) blood from AIDS epidemic a priority defensive and show backbone gays would be excluded—despite the (News24.com 14 March 2005). and courage to acknowledge fact that the South African epidemic is Responding to the 2005-06 national and seriously tackle the an eminently heterosexually transmit- budget allocation to health, these HIV/AIDS crisis of its people. ted one. Plus ça change… activists also criticised the govern- The progress in provision of In January 2005 this context of ment for not keeping up with infla- [ARV] treatment to all people contestation became even more polit- tion or with health practitioners’ with advanced HIV has been ical when the head of the Catholic salaries, and for focusing so exclu- painfully slow since the Gov- Bishops Conference in Southern sively on the expansion of health ernment’s first report of a Africa, Cardinal Wilfred Napier, crit- infrastructure that inadequate plan- planned programme in August, icised the government for promoting ning goes into expanding the actual 2003.

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Despite this potentially explosive • AIDS civil society in South Africa lives—and not defer that questionable information, the government seems seems to be succeeding in bypassing privilege to the state. In order to to be continuing its intransigent posi- those at the very top of govern- achieve all of this, we need to become tion on ARVs, and continues to pre- ment, using the courts to force a society that is unafraid to speak the varicate on the roll-out of ARV treat- through legal sanctions to create truth to power, wherever it may lurk. ments. In fact, if recent media reports the programmatic infrastructure for As for the government, this are to be believed the government future success, and paper’s central message to Thabo (with the blessing of Mbeki himself) • Inside the National Department of Mbeki is that his administration’s his- has in recent years been acting sur- Health a number of newly tory of denial, prevarication and reptitiously to establish a dissident appointed officials seem to have a obfuscation regarding HIV and AIDS AIDS activist organisation to serve as genuine desire to speed up the might postpone or temporarily hide a counterweight to the TAC (Mail & delivery of essential services to some ad hoc consequences, but Guardian 24-31 March 2005). combat AIDS: Dr Nomonde Xundu unless the lessons of AIDS are Reviewing these events since the and Deputy Minister of Health heeded, generations hence will judge second Mbeki administration came Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge are you harshly. Soon the dividends to power in April 2004, it is clear driving real efforts to integrate HIV earned from the apartheid struggle that the negative patterns of public into the areas of healthcare and will seem distant to the leaders and rhetoric and actions on HIV and AIDS treatment. Importantly, Mad- opinion shapers coming to the fore; AIDS established during 1999-2004 lala-Routledge also seems more AIDS is the new arena of the struggle. seem to be continuing. Negative amenable that her Minister to see Denial and an anti-intellectual stance aspects centre around the fact that the TAC and other members of will only take you so far, for so Mbeki and his Minister of Health AIDS civil society as allies, rather long—as the warning goes, ‘This seem to be continuing their policy of than as foes (Sunday Times 13 fence around your garden won’t keep 1 neglect and foot-dragging on ARV March 2005). the ice from falling’. roll-out. The approach from the top continues to include the questioning One hopes that these develop- Bibliography of medical science, casting doubt on ments will in the not too distant future create an institutional tipping any data demonstrating the afford- ANC Today, 17-23 December 2004. ability and imperative of life-saving point to change the AIDS policy land- Nevirapine, drugs and African guinea drugs, or the negative impact that scape in this country. For unless the pigs 4(50). government (particularly at the AIDS is having on national mortality Cape Times, 22 October 2004. and morbidity levels. provincial and local levels) and civil society work together and stop view- Dorrington, R. and Johnson, L. 2002. However, not all is lost. There are Epidemiological and demographic. ing prevention and treatment strate- clear signals in and around govern- Impacts and interventions: The HIV and ment that some positive forces are at gies as mutually exclusive, all of AIDS epidemic and the children of South work to undo some of the damage South Africa will lose in the long run. Africa, eds. J. Gow and C. Desmond. done under the Mbeki government. But in order to get there, it is impera- Pietermaritzburg: University of Natal Press. These positive aspects include: tive that we find a way of addressing the real vectors underpinning the Jack, E. 2004. Mbeki ‘like PW on Tutu • A greater willingness from the Min- spread of HIV in this country: per- issue’, www.news24.co.za, accessed on 2 istry of Finance to provide the capi- versely unequal and violent gender December. tal to improve the roll-out of ARV relations, cultural practices that act to Jack, E. 2004. Mbeki ‘like PW on Tutu treatment; lubricate the spread of the virus in our issue’, www.news24.co.za, accessed on 2 • Some provinces and local authori- society, and government denial about December. ties have demonstrated an increase the impact (and very existence) of the Lancet 2005. South Africa needs to face in their capacity to provide essential horror that is AIDS. The bottom line the truth about HIV mortality services; is that we should learn to take indi- 365(9459), 12 February. vidual responsibility for our own sex

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 67 Mail & Guardian, 10-16 December “UNDP/HARPAS Religious Leaders Initiative on 2004. HIV/AIDS in The Arab Region: the Ethics of a Mail & Guardian, 24-31 March 2005. Developmental approach” Mail & Guardian, 25 February to 3 March 2005. Khadija Moalla, Ehab El Kharrat, Sayed El Zenari Mail & Guardian, 4 June 2004. News24.com 2005. Condoms clearly don’t work, www.news24.com, This paper will give a background on The Background: Why Involve accessed on 24 January 2005. the Religious Leaders (RLs) Initiative Religious Leaders? News24.com 2005. Death stats come launched by the UNDP, HIV/AIDS Years of experience have shown us to life, regional programme in the Arab http://www.news24.com/News24/Sout that any effective response to h_Africa/0,,2-7-659_1664609,00.html, States (HARPAS) and the ethical HIV/AIDS can not stop at the health accessed on 21 February 2005. dilemmas that it provoked from its approach, it must involve many sec- very start, as well as what is thought News24.com 2005. HIV/AIDS care tors of the society in a concerted lagging in SA, www.news24.com, of the lessons learned in this process. developmental effort. HIV/AIDS pro- accessed on 14 March 2005. The initiative was launched in April vokes deep ethical issues and dilem- 2004, a peak event was its Cairo News24.com 2005. TAC slams ANC’s mas. A developmental approach AIDS stance, www.news24.com, regional colloquium, in December implies empowering ordinary people accessed on 19 January 2005. 2004 where 80 first rank Muslim and to do extraordinary things; dealing Christian leaders representing all Reuters NewMedia, 16 July 2004. with the ethical dilemmas relevant to denominations came together to dis- HIV/AIDS is an essential part of such Sunday Herald, 18 July 2004. cuss the rising threat of the empowerment. People thinking that Sunday Independent, 12 December HIV/AIDS to the region and establish HIV/AIDS is God’s punishment upon 2004. a basis for responding to it. The the wicked are probably less likely to Sunday Independent, 20 February result was the Cairo Declaration, respect and promote the rights of 2005. described as revolutionary by some, people living with HIV/AIDS Sunday Times, 13 March 2005. as well as a Muslim and a Christian (PLWHA), let alone reach out to Manual of religious lessons tackling them or support vulnerable groups. TAC. 2004. Why the TAC is going to stigma, discrimination against court tomorrow and holding country- Dealing with sexuality, with a taboo wide demonstrations, www.tac.org.za, HIV/AIDS and providing a platform mentality, may lead to less inclination accessed on 2 December. for a human rights-based response to to talk about HIV/AIDS and its the issues. The action plan laid down TAC. 2004. Why the TAC is going to modes of transmission and effective court tomorrow and holding country- in Cairo involved 5 sub-regional preventive measures. wide demonstrations, www.tac.org.za, workshops for leaders and a struc- The issue in the Arab world accessed on 2 December. tured national response to train and becomes more complicated if we UNAIDS. 2004. Report on the global motivate religious leaders. All the examine cultural and developmental AIDS epidemic. Switzerland: UNAIDS. workshops were carried out and this challenges. Globalization has led to plan has led to the mobilization of Washington Post, 29 April 2004. paradoxical rise of thousands of Muslim Imams and fundamentalism/terrorism in the 1 The Silver Mt. Zion Memorial Christian Ministers to date. The ethi- region, which may be partly Orchestra & Tra-la-la Band, Constel- cal issues raised here start from lation (2003). explained as an attempt to maintain whether to involve RLs or not in the identity against the overwhelming response, what are the ethical prob- cultural, economical and political lems relating to the concept of God’s impacts of globalization. Disenchant- punishment, protected sex, vulnera- ment with “western culture” may ble groups and women rights. provide a basis for doubt of any

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cus (28th June – 1st July 2004), attended by thirty RLs, many of whom had previous experience with HIV/AIDS. Initial Endorsement: This was fol- lowed by an “Endorsement Phase” where person to person as well as group meetings were held with some key RLs including the scholars of the Syrian Kaftaro Institute, the Egyptian Sheikh of El Azhar ( considered by some the most influential Sunni insti- tute in the world), as well as the Cop- tic Pope, in Tunisia. Scholars of the Zeitouna University endorsed the ini- tiative and in Sudan the Chief of Andy Mogotlane, Col. A.J. Loubser, and Bob Mtonga at the Mabula workshop, June 2004. Ullama as well as the Sudan Council of Churches did the same. The initia- tive was also endorsed by prominent experience exchange from other areas too rigid or close minded and that leaders in Morocco including the of the world, particularly if it touches working with them may backfire. Religious Advisor of the King. on issues like “sexual morality” and Another concern is that involving The Major Regional Colloquium: “religious interpretations of major religious leaders may actually hinder This set the ground for the major events”. Far from being absolute the process of democratization in the Cairo Colloquium, which was held terms of references, human rights are region. UNDP/HIV AIDS Regional under the auspices of the Arab league enclosed with marked ambiguity in Programme in the Arab States and involved 80 top Muslim and the minds and sentiments of most of (HARPAS) endorsed a view that RLs Christian leaders from 19 different the region’s population. The whole are key-players in the region, they Arab countries, including Sunni, progress toward a democratic society have enormous impact on people’s Shia, Orthodox, Catholic and Protes- is at best in an embryonic stage in values and attitudes, avoiding them tant leaders. They produced a pro- most of the Arab states. Access to would lead to isolating developmen- gressive Declaration. Described as information is hindered by a long list tal efforts from the public and that it revolutionary by reporters covering of political, cultural and ideological is both possible and worthwhile to the story, the event received intensive concerns and the gaps in women win their support to proven and media coverage by more than 40 rights are still enormous. human rights based responses to the agencies, including major news Compassion, breaking the silence, epidemic. papers and regional TV stations. overcoming denial and a proactive The History of the Religious The Cairo Declaration empha- stance can be challenged by moral Leaders Initiative in the Arab sizes the urgency of responding to the concerns about modesty, chastity, States HIV/AIDS epidemic, calling for avoiding undue alarming of the pub- Mapping and a technical meeting: awareness campaigns, outreach to lic and a conviction that there are The RLs initiative started in April vulnerable groups, treatment and other priorities towards which we 2004, and involved a mapping of the care for those infected and affected should direct the limited resources Muslim and Christian Religious by the virus. It even explicitly sup- available. Leaders existing efforts in response to ports a woman’s right not to be There are views that call for HIV/AIDS in the region as well as a infected, implying a possible review avoiding involving religious leaders relevant review of the literature done of the age-old power imbalance of (RL) in the Arab region, claiming by two consultants in preparation for gendered sexual relations in the that they are hopelessly reactionary, a technical Meeting held in Damas- region.

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Penal views explaining away the ment perspective, and a human rights and Christian Ministers in the region. epidemic as an expression of “God’s based approach based on references A remarkable moment came when a wrath upon the unrighteous” are eas- from the Koran and Hadith, or the poor former sex worker shared her ily subscribed to in this region and Bible and its scriptures. testimony in one of the workshops. elsewhere, but after the courageous An action plan was laid down in Following the AIDS-stricken lady’s stance of the Cairo RLs Declaration, the colloquium that involved the for- story, a hard-line Imam from these views became more difficult. mation of a steering committee, Morocco tried to comment, his The declaration says: “(AIDS) printing of the kits, sub-regional and words were choked by tears while Patients are our brothers and sisters, national training workshops and other Imams asked the lady to forgive and we stand by them seeking God’s preparation for a network of RLs in them and to pray for them. In healing for each one of them…People response to HIV/AIDS. another UNDP workshop, in Damas- living with HIV/AIDS and their fami- cus, a prominent Imam from Syria lies deserve care, support, treatment, volunteered to undergo the HIV test and education, whether or not they Years of experience have shown following a doctor’s explanation of are responsible for their illness”. the test and its meanings. Tens of us that any effective response Another important ethical break- Christian and Muslim leaders entered through came with the Declaration to HIV/AIDS can not stop at the hand in hand, to the huge Caftaro statement: “We emphasize the impor- Mosque in Syria where a Lebanese health approach, it must involve tance of reaching out to vulnerable Shiite Imam, a Palestinian Orthodox groups... including commercial sex many sectors of the society in a Priest and a first rank Azhar scholar workers and their clients, injecting all shared messages about HIV/AIDS. concerted developmental effort. drug users, men having sex with men, The night before, all religions were and those who are involved in harm- represented in a major church meet- ful practices”. Here members of these ing in the village of Sahnaya to dis- groups were named and recognized The Steering committee: 12 Reli- cuss HIV/AIDS. The leaders shared as “real people” and, perhaps for the gious Leaders (8 Muslim and 4 Chris- laughter and sincere words as they first time in this region, religious tian) met for the first time in Cairo, enjoyed the magic of this Syrian vil- leaders did not call for the most stern May 2005 and prioritized the action lage hospitality after the services in punishment for them. plan items, reviewed the final version the presence of the area Bishop. The heated ‘harm reduction’ of the Religious Kit and decided the These workshops go beyond the debate in the colloquium ended up next steps in the region. They also tears and laughter they evoked, to with the following statement in the provided an initial plan for sustained action, transformation, and commit- declaration “We reiterate that absti- networking and facilitation of future ment. A dynamic Imam from one of nence and faithfulness are the two activities. A significant outcome of the biggest Mosques in Cairo went cornerstones of our preventive strate- this meeting was the detailed plan for home from the workshop to deliver gies but we understand the medical holding five sub-regional training the Friday sermon to 6,000 wor- call for the use of different preventive workshops to promote the kits. shipers which he dedicated to means to reduce the harm to oneself Sub-regional Training workshops: HIV/AIDS. He then proposed a plan and others”. The five workshops (40-50 mid-level to the minister of Awqaf to share the Another outcome of the Cairo RL participants in each workshop) training he received with tens of his meeting was the two HIV/AIDS man- were organized by UNDP’s HARPAS peers. A prominent Imam from uals written by and for Muslim and between July and September 2005, Morocco started without any fund- Christian religious leaders; these con- and national initiatives mushroomed ing a training scheme aiming at ten tain suggested material for sermons as a result in almost every Arab coun- Imams from each of the 14 gover- and religious lessons on HIV/AIDS- try, creating a regional transforma- norates, his own leaders developed related issues, which integrate fact- tion The declaration has thus been this to an ambitious plan to train all based messaging from not only the endorsed by thousands and probably thirty thousand Moroccan Imams medical but also the broader develop- tens of thousands of Muslim Imams and they secured the funding and

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expertise for this enormous task. age them to go beyond statistics and leaders at the Damascus gathering All leaders understand the role of intellectual arguments, in order to before the event started. Other theo- health specialists in providing proven develop an empathetic understanding ries were also voiced, such as the methods in HIV prevention; some of the issues that surround notion that discussion of HIV/AIDS agree to endorse the use of condoms HIV/AIDS. was being imposed on them by the while others are still reluctant and West to distract them from focusing A Pluralistic Society Possible: The prefer to speak about abstinence and on their real problems. These con- greatest challenge faced was to hold faithfulness only. But the issue has cerns were addressed through the fact the colloquium at all. Inviting reli- certainly been recognized, high risk that all the participants were Arabs. gious leaders from all denominations behavior including unprotected sex Even the UN organizers of the Collo- and religions within the Arab States and intravenous drug use are frankly quium were Arabs. The workshops to a colloquium that would discuss discussed and effective methods to also demonstrated the hazardous sit- sensitive issues such as sex and deal with these behaviors are sug- uation within the Arab World – as HIV/AIDS was extremely difficult. gested. Facing HIV/AIDS provokes evident by the constant increase in Thus the Colloquium Organizers either rigidity or open mindedness the number of newly infected people. started by adopting the following and compassion. RLs in the Arab The initiative belonged to the reli- motto: “Responding to the region are moving in the right direc- gious leaders in that they voiced their HIV/AIDS pandemic requires a tion, and this may have long term views liberally. The UN did not human accord that surpasses all reli- repercussions in their reactions to impose any ideas on them, directly or gious and denominational variation. many developmental issues including indirectly. The atmosphere allowed It must be an accord that derives women rights, governance and access all participants to express their views from spiritual heritage and creates to knowledge. All of these aspects are and remarks freely. The Regional courageous responses to the prob- essential components in any effective Programme ensured this atmosphere lems posed by the pandemic. It is an response to HIV/AIDS. by not allowing journalists or media accord that inspires something personnel to attend any of the ses- Lessons Learned greater and deeper than any chal- sions except for the inaugural and lenge!” As a symbol of such human The lessons learned from the promis- closing sessions. ing results of this initiative include accord, the organizers took as a logo the value and methods of building a mosaic decoration of unknown ori- Providing a Safe and Warm Environ- trust, the importance of an empa- gin; it could equally be taken from ment: Extra care was given to show respect for all ideas and to incorpo- thetic and motivational approach, the either a mosque or a church. The effectiveness of RLs in either promot- experience of this initiative may teach rate the results of deliberations with- ing or hindering developmental us that a pluralistic society is achiev- out bias within the outcomes of each approaches, the gradual nature of the able in this part of the world, as event. By listening, allowing space, and showing respect to the religious mechanisms of transformation and Sunni, Shiite, Orthodox, Catholics, leaders throughout the workshops the possibility of discovering new and Protestants all convened trust was gradually built, even in a meanings of virtue and spiritual val- together. Some were conservatives, short time frame. ues even among the most conserva- others more liberal. The accord took place not through doctrinal dialogue tive circles. Dealing with Denial: Silence and but through an honest confrontation denial are prevailing phenomena The Process of Change: The change of developmental challenges in a within the Arab region both in gen- of heart individually among religious warm and humane atmosphere. eral, and relating to HIV/AIDS in leaders takes place not only through Lack of trust in the UN and conspir- particular. The roots of such phe- sharing accurate information but also elated nomena in the case of HIV/AIDS may through religious leaders meeting acy theories: How is the UN r to the United States of America? be found in the lack of information face to face with People Living with Does Israel expor and may also be ascribed to the pre- HIV and AIDS. Participants also ben- t HIV/AIDS to the Arabs? These were two of the first vailing notion that only particular efit from a package of leadership questions asked by some religious groups are vulnerable to HIV/AIDS development exercises which encour-

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 71 Special Section: Papers from the Study Group on HIV/AIDS and that such groups are far removed Stigmatization, condemnation, lack that these are the true principles from mosque and church congrega- of information and misconceptions: called for by every heavenly religion. tions. Moreover, the notion may even We need to realize that the roots of Empathetic and Motivational go as far as to suggest that such condemnation lie in the attempt to approaches: not telling the leaders groups are non-existent in some Arab sustain the principled majority, and what to do; rather providing the plat- states. It is indeed often believed that likewise the purity of the moral code. form for them to explore the issues in faith-oriented societies are not vul- Undoubtedly, embarrassment of a safe and warm environment and nerable to the fatal pandemic. When appearing lenient, morally loose and trust that they will find the right people know very little about a dis- liberal played a crucial role in creat- answers. ease related to sex, death and shame, ing exaggerated rigidity and unbal- fear becomes the dominant emotion, anced viewpoints. Stigmatization and The meanings of Virtue: Connecting and the easiest way to deal with such condemnation have their causes HIV/AIDS to committing adultery fear is completely to avoid discussing within the conscience of religious provokes a certain type of zeal for the matter, to deny that the pandemic leaders. Yet, when there is more virtue. With the rise in awareness of exists within society or to try to room to uncover the truth, and when the facts comes the realization that underestimate the volume of the people are not competing to prove confronting HIV/AIDS requires problem. This problem was resolved themselves the greatest defenders of avoiding labeling and condemna- not only through providing the par- virtue, the atmosphere changes to tions. A call for love and compassion ticipants with accurate information one of mercy and compassion. Hav- in action toward vulnerable groups but through the testimonies of ing consulted religious texts exhort- and PLWHA emerges and a sense PLWHA from the Arab World which ing mercy and compassion toward that since all human beings are sin- served to give a human face to the sick, the religious leaders inde- ners (obviously the notion of sin is HIV/AIDS. pendently reached the conclusion central to both Islam and Christian-

Participants at the Gordon’s Bay workshop, April 2005.

72 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Special Section: Papers from the Study Group on HIV/AIDS

ity) the compassion and forgiveness entifically proven measures” can defi- from scientists. But there is a need for of God is to be sought for and by all. nitely be interpreted as inclusive of research on the role of religion in This may fall short of the aspirations condoms and is a decisive step for- democratisation. The hope is that the of some humanists, but it is definitely ward again. acknowledgment of the existence of a a huge step forward for PLWHA and pluralistic Arab society could act as a The challenge of hard work may members of vulnerable groups. first step towards the freedom of result in a more gratifying meeting: thought and the freedom of science. Steps forward while maintaining a Long hours, intensive work but a Further questions on harmful tra- balanced stance: Doctrinal and growing bond and a gratifying ditional practices (including Female denominational diversity as well as response were observed in the sub- Genital Mutilation) and new kinds of national and ethnic diversity were regional workshops repeatedly. marriage, the roots of models of sexu- evident in all workshops and events The declaration and kits are essential ality in religious ethics, the religious of the initiative. Another source of but not enough: The leading RLs approach to harm reduction and other pressure came from UN human rights progressive views were not automati- issues need to be further studied. positions which sometime differ and cally endorsed by mid-level leaders. The experience is likely to be conflict not only with the RLs norms The process had to be repeated, some repeatable in other regions of the but with each other. All this and the even retreated from previously world but further studies on how it sensitivity of the issues at hand made attained positions. may evolve in different contexts are progress very difficult, but it was pos- also called for. sible in the end. The process of change needs consis- tent action to be maintained: To The Future of this Initiative What cannot be fully attained is not assume that a one-time effort will to be totally left out: Some would The next step is to hold another major achieve constant change is unrealis- argue that not advocating homosexu- regional conference in order to create tic. Facing HIV/AIDS provokes either ality as a lifestyle in the Cairo Decla- a regional network of all the RLs who rigidity or open mindedness and ration is a violation of the rights of actually started action within their compassion. Religious leaders in our men who have sex with men. How- communities conveying the messages region are moving in the right direc- ever, these people are currently killed agreed upon and implementing the tion. This may have long-term reper- or imprisoned in many and harshly principles of this initiative. cussions in their reactions to many condemned in all Arab states. There- The Arabic first letters of the developmental issues including fore, the mere fact that they were rec- words that mean: “Network of Faith women’s rights, governance and ognized and not called upon to be Based Agencies Working in the Field access to knowledge. All of these harshly punished is a huge step for- Of AIDS”, form a word that sounds aspects are essential components in ward. Similar arguments are applica- like “Chahama.” In Arabic this word any effective response to HIV/AIDS. ble to intravenous drug users and is difficult to translate, but it does commercial sex workers. The fact Issues and questions calling carry the meanings of generosity, that direct mention of the condom for further Study courage and gallantry. These are some of the ethical values the Arab was avoided in the Declaration was In the current situation, the pro- world needs in order to face the lamented by some AIDS activists, gramme is trying to convince reli- HIV/AIDS pandemic. however, the use of the term “all sci- gious leaders to talk to and learn

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 73 NATIONAL PUGWASH GROUPS

The Russian Pugwash Committee

Mikhail Lebedev

n 2005, the Russian Pugwash Committee, along with in this case the gap is almost as great as in the income rates the world-wide international scientific and non-gov- of the rich and the poor. Such gaps are fraught with unpre- Iernmental community, marked the 50th anniversary of dictable consequences, and Pugwash must pay attention to the Russell-Einstein Manifesto. The Organizing Commit- this problem. tee for jubilee events was headed by Academicians Nicko- Vice President of the RAS, Academician N. Plate, lay Plate and Yuri Ryzhov, and Professor Sergey Kapitza, noted the lack of global ideas in world affairs which could Alexander Nikitin, and Alexander Ginzburg. Meetings gather the support of the entire international community. were sponsored by the Russian Academy of Sciences To help fill this need, Pugwash should seek new dynamics (RAS), Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the in the aspiration for the resolution of global problems, International Federation for Peace and Conciliation. especially the problems of terrorism and extremism. He With deep grief, Committee members learned of the also mentioned that the Russian Academy of Sciences and death of Sir Joseph Rotblat on August 31, 2005. He was the Russian scientific community must expand the partici- our good friend and colleague. On October 4 we orga- pation in Pugwash of high levels of scientific and moral nized a memorial service “The Russell-Einstein Manifesto leadership. and the Legacy of Sir J. Rotblat”. Famous scientists, Professor S. Kapitza touched on the crucial differences including member of the Pugwash Council Prof. F. between the scientific community and political elites when Calogero, gave talks in memory of Jo. Participants at this analyzing the relations between these two groups. Scien- memorial decided to organize an annual Russian Rotblat tists possess a freedom of action and opinion not available memorial lecture series in the future. to political leaders, which is one reason that politicians do A scientific session of the RAS Presidium titled “Inter- not always want, or are able, to acknowledge the impor- national Security, Non-Proliferation and Social Responsi- tance of the advice and recommendations of scientists. bility of Scientists” was held on November 29, 2005 as the Accordingly, Pugwash must continue to play a key role in main jubilee event in supporting high-level and positive dialogue between scien- Russia of the Russell-Ein- tists and political leaders. stein 50th anniversary. In Other Committee his opening address meetings celebrating the th Chairman of the Russian 50 anniversary of the Pugwash Committee and Russell-Einstein Mani- member of the Pugwash festo were held at the Council Academician Yu. Federation for Peace and Ryzhov stressed that sci- Conciliation (Moscow), entists bear high moral University for Aerospace and professional author- Instrumentation (St. ity and therefore can Petersburg), and Obninsk exercise unbiased influ- Center for Science and ence on politics. In his Technology (Kaluga view Russia now faces an Region). More then 100 enormous problem of participants attended dialogue between the these meetings to discuss government and society – Kirill Babievsky, Alexander Ginzburg, Mikhail Lebedev, Yuri Ryzhov scientific cooperation and

74 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 terrorism counter-measures, as well as the development of impression after my visit to destroyed Grozny, I have a new technologies in Russia. ‘prudent pessimism’ that Russian and Chechen leaders can On November 10-14, 2005, I visited Grozny, the capi- carry the newly-started peace process to its conclusion. tal of Chechnya. This visit was sponsored by the Grozny Finally, we are pleased to announce that the Russian State Oil Institute, which bears the name of Academician Pugwash Committee has started its own scientific and M. Millionshchikov, Chairman of the Soviet Pugwash media internet project in Russian and English at Committee in 1964–1973. Discussions with members of www.pugwash.ru, and that the Russian Pugwash Commit- the Government of Chechnya and leaders of science and tee will organize a series of event and publications in 2007 education were characterized by the necessity for recon- to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Pugwash struction of the Republic’s economy, educational system, Conferences. and society. Murders, kidnappings, government corrup- tion and the slow process of the reconstruction of Mikhail LEBEDEV is Executive Secretary of the Russian dwellings and industry are very serious problems for Pugwash Committee and Head of the Program on Interna- Chechnya. Especially valuable would be the creation of tional Security, Cooperation and Regional Problems of the civil society organizations and special programs for the International Federation for Peace and Conciliation, rehabilitation of Chechen youth. In spite of a painful Moscow

BOOKS

The Russian Military: Power and Policy, edited by The Russian Military Steven E. Miller and Dmitri Trenin (MIT Press, 2004).

Power and Policy Statehood and Security: Georgia after the Rose Revolution, edited by Bruno Coppieters and Robert Legvold (MIT Press, 2005).

Statehood and Security The Physics of Space Security, David Wright, Laura

Steven E. Miller and Dmitri Trenin, editors Grego, and Lisbeth Gronlund (American Academy of Georgia after the Rose Revolution Arts and Sciences, 2005).

United States Space Policy: Challenges and Opportunities, George Abbey and Neal Lane (American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2005).

Bruno Coppieters and Robert Legvold, editors Russian and Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Plans in Space, Pavel Podvig and Hui Zhang (American Academy of Arts and Sciences, forthcoming).

The Minimum Means of Reprisal: China’s Search for Security in the Nuclear Age, Jeffrey G. Lewis (MIT Press, forthcoming).

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 75 ISYP

International Student/Young Pugwash

mitted by conference participants as well as by keynote Report by speakers will be published in future issues of the ISYP Juan Pablo Pardo-Guerra Journal on Science and World Affairs at www.scienceand- worldaffairs.org. In parallel to these events, the Executive Board of ISYP, uring the first half of 2006, International Stu- in close collaboration with Karim Kadry (Egypt) and other dent/Young Pugwash engaged in several activities members of the local organizing committee, has continued Dthat resulted in an increase of both the size and the preparations for the 2006 ISYP Conference, which will scope of our community and, in addition, to the fostering take place on the 9th and 10th of November 2006 in Cairo, of a closer relation with senior Pugwash. Egypt. As an event that will join new and existing mem- In late April 2006, Aleksandra Dzisiow, Benjamin bers of the student Pugwash community with senior Pug- Rusek and Juan Pablo Pardo-Guerra had the unique washites, the 2006 ISYP Conference will serve as an ideal opportunity to attend the conference “Iran’s nuclear venue to discuss the interconnected themes of conflict, pol- energy program: policies and prospects” in Tehran, Iran. itics, science, technology and development with a focus on Jointly organized by the Pugwash Conferences on Science the Middle East. and World Affairs and the Center for Strategic Research in Finally, the Executive Board of ISYP has continued its Tehran, this event allowed the three international students search for an organizational arrangement better suited to to analyze in closer detail the elements that comprise the deal with the fluid nature of the student community and nuclear issue in the region. But, just as importantly, this with the renewed relationship of ISYP with senior Pug- event allowed existing members of the student Pugwash wash. Many challenges lay ahead in this respect, although community to meet with some of their peers, in particular, creative solutions are being sought that will ensure the graduate students in social and political studies in Iran. healthy development of ISYP as well as a constructive Hopefully, this encounter will become the first of many partnership with the senior Pugwash community. such interactions between students from the Middle East and the broader ISYP community. Then, from the 14-16 June 2006, 23 students and young professionals from various countries participated in the ISYP workshop on “New Challenges to Human Secu- rity” in Wageningen, The Netherlands. Organized by the local senior and student/young Pugwash groups under the auspices of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the workshop allowed the participants to go beyond the traditional core topics of the Pugwash movement and view the multifarious threats confronted by humankind from a different, yet interesting, perspective. In particular, the workshop presented students the possibility to adopt a multidisciplinary perspective on the causes of conflict, thus going beyond the perceptions that prevail both in acade- mia and the political sphere. A selection of the articles sub- ISYP participants in Hiroshima, July 2005.

76 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 OBITUARIES

Iwao Ogawa (1921–2006)

wao Ogawa, a Japanese physicist, Professor Emeritus of works included the analyses of the mechanism of instru- IRikkyo University (St. Paul University) in Tokyo and a ments measuring radioactivity and its improvements. participant in the First Pugwash Conference held at Pug- In those days there were many atmospheric nuclear wash, Nova Scotia, Canada in 1957, died on June 13, weapon tests by the USA, the Soviet Union and the UK. As 2006 in Tokyo at the age of 84. a result, the atmosphere in the world, especially in the Born in Tokyo in August 1921, as a small child he met northern hemisphere, was polluted by radioactivity. often with his uncle Hideki Yukawa, a signatory of the Ogawa and the Rikkyo group measured and analysed the Russell-Einstein Manifest in 1955 and a Nobel Prize Lau- radioactive materials contained in the air. reate in physics in 1949. After graduation from the Uni- Ogawa was one of three Japanese participants, along versity of Tokyo in 1943, Iwao Ogawa became a teacher with Prof. Yukawa and Prof. S. Tomonaga, at the first of mechanics at the Naval Academy located at Edajima, conference in Pugwash, Nova Scotia, 1957, and he then 16 km south from Hiroshima. attended more than 10 subsequent Pugwash workshops On August 6, 1945 at the grounds of the Academy he and conferences over the next four decades, including the was shocked by a sudden flash, then a blast. He observed 40th anniversary symposium held at Thinker’s Lodge in a mushroom cloud growing in the north sky. It was the July 1997. He also attended the Nobel Peace Prize cere- atomic bomb explosion over Hiroshima. His place was mony for the Pugwash Conferences and Joseph Rotblat in however so far from the hypocenter of the explosion that Oslo, Norway in December 1995. he was not injured by the heat rays and radioactivity. With a frank personality and a wide intellectual curios- After World War II he became an associate professor at ity, Ogawa wrote and lectured widely about Pugwash top- the University of Tokyo and in 1955 he moved to the Fac- ics and nuclear disarmament. ulty of Science, Rikkyo University, where he later held the —Michiji Konuma, Pugwash Japan position of Director, Institute for Atomic Energy. His

Robert William Reford (1921–2006)

obert (Bob) Reford, a longtime member of the Cana- policy during the international crises of the offshore Rdian Pugwash group, died on May 9, 2006 at his islands of China, Suez and Cuba. home in Nova Scotia at the age of 85. Robert had a lifelong involvement in the Pugwash Born in 1921 in London, to Canadian parents, Robert Conferences on Science and World Affairs, attending his was educated at Winchester College and New College, first conference in 1973 in Finland, and seven more Oxford, and later served with the Irish Guards from 1940- through the 1992 annual conference in Berlin. He and his 1946 with the rank of Captain, seeing action as an intelli- wife Stephanie also played an important part when Hali- gence officer in France, Germany and Malaysia. fax and Pugwash, Nova Scotia hosted the 53rd Pugwash After the war, he began a career in journalism, and Conference in July 2003. then joined the staff of the United Nations Institute for An avid bird-watcher, he was also an excellent golfer Training and Research as special assistant to the director. and skier. With his exceptional height and full head of In 1971, he was appointed Executive Director of the white curly hair, Bob was a striking figure wherever he Canadian Institute of International Affairs, where he travelled. Even after a stroke diminished his mobility, his served until 1978. twinkle and charm never left him and he often bested his A prolific writer, he edited and wrote several books, friends and family with his repartee and wordplay. notably Canada and Three Crises, on Canada’s foreign —Stephanie Reford, Pugwash Canada

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 77 ISODARCO

Italian Pugwash Group INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL ON DISARMAMENT AND RESEARCH ON CONFLICTS Founded in 1966

20th Winter Course “Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Human Rights”

ANDALO (TRENTO) – ITALY 14–21 JANUARY 2007

ISODARCO has organized residential courses on global security since 1966, primarily in Italy but also in China, Germany and Jordan with the generous support of private foundations and International and National Institutions and Organizations. The courses are intended for those who would like to play a more active and technically competent role in the field of international conflicts as well as those who already have a pro- fessional interest and experience in this field. The courses are intensive, interactive and interdisciplinary in focus. The subject matters span not only the technical and scientific dimensions of these problems but also their sociological and political implications.

PRINCIPAL LECTURERS:

Alexei Arbatov, Carnegie Moscow Center, Moscow, Russia; Nadia Arbatova, Institute of the World Economy and International Relations, Moscow, Russia; Sergey Batsanov, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, Geneva, Switzerland; Gary Chapman, University of Texas, Austin TX, USA; Christopher Chyba, Princeton University, Princeton NJ, USA; Giovanni Ercolani, Nottingham Trent University and University of Urbino, Italy Virginie Guiraudon, European University Institute, Florence, Italy; Mary Fainsod Katzenstein, Cornell University, Ithaca NY, USA; Peter Katzenstein, Cornell University, Ithaca NY, USA; Catherine McArdle Kelleher, Watson Institute, Brown University, Providence RI, USA; Maati Monjib, Universitéé Moulay Ismail, Meknèès, Morocco; Alexander Nikitin, Russian Political Science Association, Moscow, Russia. Deborah Pearlstein, Human Rights First, Washington DC, USA Robert Nurick, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Washington DC, USA;

For more information, contact: Prof. CARLO SCHAERF Department of Physics University of Rome “Tor Vergata” Via della Ricerca Scientifica 1, 00133 Rome, Italy Tel.: (+39) 06 72594560/1 — Fax: (+39) 06 2040309 E-mail: [email protected]

78 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Pugwash Meeting No. 309

Pugwash Council for the 2002–2007 Quinquennium

Amb. (ret.) Ochieng Adala, of the Africa dent of the China Association for Promo- Science and World Affairs; Centro Atom- Peace Forum (APFO) in Nairobi, Kenya, tion of International Science and Peace; ico Bariloche, 8400 Bariloche, Argentina, is former Permanent Representative of he was formerly Secretary General of the Tel.: (++54-2944) 445170, Fax: (++54- Kenya to the United Nations in New Chinese People’s Association for Peace 2944) 445299, E-mail: York, former Deputy Secretary/Director and Disarmament (CPAPD) in Beijing, [email protected] for Political Affairs, Ministry of Foreign and Council Member of the Chinese Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy is Professor of Affairs and International Cooperation, Association for International Understand- Nuclear Physics at Quaid-e-Azam Univer- and former Ambassador of Kenya to the ing; CPAPD, PO Box 188, 15 Wanshou sity in Islamabad; Chairman of Mashal Arab Republic of Egypt, the Kingdom of Rd., Beijing, China 100036, Tel.: (++86- Books; an independent maker of docu- Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia; APFO, 10) 6827-1736 or 6821-4433 (ext. mentary films for popularising science in P.O. Box 76621, Tel.: (++254-2) 8586), Fax: (++86-10) 6827-3675, Pakistan; and an activist for peace and 574092/6, Fax: (++254-2) 561357, E-mail: [email protected] social reform; E-mail: E-mail: [email protected] Prof. Paolo Cotta-Ramusino is Secretary [email protected] Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell is Executive Director General of Pugwash Conferences (since Gen. (ret.) Dr. Mohamed Kadry Said is of Pugwash Conferences on Science and August 2002; Professor of Mathematical Head of the Military Studies Unit and World Affairs, former Associate Execu- Physics at the University of Milan; Direc- Technology Advisor at the Al-Ahram tive Officer at the American Academy of tor of the Program on Science, Technol- Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Arts and Sciences in Cambridge, and for- ogy and International Security, Landau Al-Ahram Foundation in Cairo, Egypt; mer Staff Aide at the National Security Network – Centro Volta, Como; and for- Professor of Missile Mechanics of Flight Council in Washington, DC; Pugwash mer Secretary General of the Union of at the Military Technical College (MTC) Conferences, 2029 P St., NW, Suite 301, Italian Scientists for Disarmament in Cairo; Member of the Committee of Washington, D.C. 20036, Tel. (++1-202) (USPID); Department of Physics, Univer- Strategic Planning of the Egyptian Coun- 478-3440, Fax: (++1-202) 238-9604, sity of Milan, Via Celoria 16, 20133 cil of Space Science and Technology; Al- Email: [email protected] Milan, Italy, Tel.: (**39-02) 5031 7277, Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Fax: (**39-02) 5031 7480, E-mail: Prof. Francesco Calogero is Professor of Studies, Al-Galaa St., Cairo, Egypt, Tel.: [email protected] Theoretical Physics at the University of (++20-2) 770-5630, Fax: (++20-2) 578- Rome “La Sapienza”. Formerly, he was Dr. Lynn Eden is Associate Director for 6037, E-mail: [email protected] Secretary-General of Pugwash (1989- Research and Senior Research Scholar at Prof. Saideh Lotfian is Associate Profes- 1997), Chair of the Pugwash Council the Center for International Security and sor of Political Science at the Faculty of (1997-2002), and a member of the Gov- Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford Univer- Law and Political Science at the Univer- erning Board of SIPRI (1982-1992); Pug- sity in California, and co-chair of the US sity of Tehran, Deputy Director of the wash Conferences, via della Lungara 10, Pugwash Committee; CISAC, Encina Center for Middle East Strategic Studies I-00165 Roma, Italy, Tel. (++39-06) 687- Hall, 2nd floor, Stanford University, Stan- in Tehran, and the former Director of the 2606, Fax: (++39-06) 687-8376, E-mail: ford, California 94305-6165, Tel.: (++1- Middle East Program at the Center for [email protected] / 650) 725 5369, Fax: (++1-650) 724 Strategic Research; Faculty of Law & [email protected] (please 5683, E-mail: [email protected] Political Science, University of Tehran, use BOTH) Prof. Galia Golan-Gild is Professor Gov- Enghelab Ave., Tehran, Iran, Tel.: (++98- Col. (ret.) Pierre Canonne is a Lecturer in ernment, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), 21) 611-2546, Fax: (++98-21) 896-9565, Disarmament and Arms Control issues at Herzliya, Israel, and Professor Emerita of E-mail: [email protected] the Univ. Marne-la-Vallés/Paris, former the Department of Political Science, Prof. Anne McLaren is Principal Head of TDB at the Organization for the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. She was Research Associate at Wellcome Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The formerly the Darwin Professor of Soviet Trust/Cancer Research UK, Institute of Hague, former Senior Staff in the Strate- and East European Studies, and Chair, Cell and Developmental Biology; a Mem- gic Affairs Department of the French Department of Political Science, Hebrew ber of the British Pugwash Group; Mem- Ministry of Defense, and former Negotia- University of Jerusalem; E-mail: ber of the European Commission’s Life tor, Chemical Weapons Convention; 29 [email protected] Sciences Group and European Group on Avenue Danton, 43300 Langeac, France, Dr. Karen Hallberg is Professor of Physics Ethics; and former Foreign Secretary of Tel./Fax: (++33-4) 71 77 24 57, E-mail: at the Instituto Balseiro (Bariloche, the Royal Society; Tel.: (++44-1223) 334 [email protected] Argentina), Research Fellow at the 088, E-mail: [email protected] Mr. Chen Jifeng is Convener of the Pug- Argentine National Council of Science Dr. Steven Miller is Director of the Inter- wash Group of China; Vice President of and Technology, a member of the Board national Security Program of the Belfer the China Arms Control and Disarma- of the Argentine Physical Association, Center for Science and International ment Association; Executive Vice Presi- and a member of the Bariloche Group for Affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy

Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 79 Pugwash Meeting No. 309

School of Government, Editor-in-chief of Japan; former President of the Peace Prof. Ivo Slaus, a Member of the Croat- the quarterly International Security, and Studies Association of Japan; and former ian Parliament, is Chairman of the Parlia- Co-chair of the US Pugwash Committee. Council Member of the Japanese Political mentary Subcommittee on Science, Formerly, he was a Senior Research Fel- Science Association; School of Law, Higher Education & Technology, Presi- low at the Stockholm International Peace Tohoku University, Kawauchi, Aoba-ku, dent of Croatian Pugwash, a Member of Research Institute (SIPRI), and taught Sendai 980-8576, Japan, E-mail: the Club of Rome, a Fellow of the World defense and arms control studies in the [email protected] Academy and Academia Europea, former Political Science Department at the Mass- Professor of Physics at Rudjer Boskovic Gen. Pan Zhengqiang is Professor at the achusetts Institute of Technology; CSIA, Institute, and former Foreign Secretary of Institute of Strategic Studies at the J.F. Kennedy School of Government, Har- the Croatian Academy of Sciences & National Defense University, PLA, China, vard University, 79 JFK Street, Cam- Arts; Rudjer Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka a retired Major General in the Chinese bridge, Massachusetts 02138, Tel. (++1- 54, P.O. Box 1016, 10000 Zagreb, Croa- People’s Army, and former Director of the 617) 495-1411, Fax: (++1-617) tia, Tel.:(++385-1) 46 80 202, Fax: Institute of Strategic Studies; Institute of 495-8963, E-mail: steven_miller@Har- (++385-1) 46 80 239, E-mail: slaus@rud- Strategic Studies, National Defense Uni- vard.Edu jer.irb.hr versity, PLA, China, Tel/Fax: (++86-10) Prof. Marie Muller is Chair of the Pug- 8283-1159, E-mail: [email protected] Prof. Fernando de Souza Barros is Profes- wash Council, and Dean of the Faculty of sor Emeritus at the Physics Institute of the Senator Douglas Roche, O.C., is a mem- Humanities and Director of the Centre Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in ber of The Senate of Canada; former Vis- for International Political Studies at the Brazil; Physics Institute, UFRJ, Tel.: iting Professor at the University of University of Pretoria. She is also a (++55-21) 2562-7337, Fax: (++55-21) Alberta in Edmonton; Chairman of the Council Member of the Academy of Sci- 2562-7368, E-mail: [email protected] Canadian Pugwash Group; Chairman of ence of South Africa, and Chair of the the Middle Powers Initiative; and former Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh, a South Pugwash South Africa Group; University Canadian Ambassador for Disarmament; Korean political scientist, is a Senior of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, Republic of University of Alberta, Edmonton, Researcher in the Department of Political South Africa, Tel.: (++27-12) 420-2318, Alberta, Canada, Tel.: (++1-780) 466- Science at the Free University of Berlin in Fax: (++27-12) 420 4501, E-mail: 8072, Fax (++1-780) 469-4732, E-mail: Germany and President of the Korean [email protected] [email protected] (or) Pugwash Group. He was formerly the Dr. Götz Neuneck is a physicist working [email protected] director of the Korean International on international security issues. He is Peace Research Institute (KIPRI) in Seoul, Acad. Yuri Ryzhov is President of the currently Senior Fellow at the Institute and a member of the Advisory Council International Engineering University in for Peace Research and Security Policy on Peaceful and Democratic Unification Moscow; Chair of the Russian Pugwash (IFSH) in Hamburg; Member of the of Korea; Schlieperstr. 12, D-13507 Group; Academician of the Russian Council of the German Physical Society Berlin, Germany, Tel.: (++49-30) 433- Academy of Sciences; former Member of (DPG), and Deputy Chairman of the 8574, Fax: (++49-30) 433-2896, E-mail: the Presidential Council of the Russian Working Group “Physics and Disarma- [email protected] Federation; and former Ambassador ment” in the DPG; IFSH, Falkenstein 1, Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Prof. M.S. Swaminathan is a renowned D-22587 Hamburg, Germany, Tel.: Russia to France; 6 Leninsky pr., agriculture scientist. Considered the sci- (++49-40) 866077-21, Fax: (++49-40) Moscow, Russia, Tel.: ++7-095) 236- entific leader of the Green Revolution, his 866-3615, E-mail: [email protected] 5066 / 9761, Fax: (++7-095) 236-1469, approach in pioneering “ever-green revo- hamburg.de E-mail: [email protected] lution” is at the heart of what is now Dr. Alexander Nikitin is Director of the called sustainable agriculture. He is a Air Commodore Jasjit Singh, AVSM, Center for Political and International past recipient of the World Food Prize, VrC, VM, a former veteran fighter pilot Studies (CPIS); Vice Chairman of the the Honda Award, the Ramon and Director of Operations of the Indian Russian Pugwash Committee of Scientists Magsaysay Award, the UNESCO Gandhi Air Force, is currently Director of the for Disarmament and International Secu- Prize, and the Indira Gandhi Prize for Centre for Strategic and International rity; Professor at Moscow State Institute Peace, Disarmament and Development. Studies; he was Director of the Institute for International Relations; First Vice- He chaired the International Commission for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) President of the Russian Political Science on Peace and Food, and is UNESCO in New Delhi (1987-2001), and a Mem- Association; and Board Member of the Chair in Ecotechnology, and Chairman of ber of the National Security Advisory Russian Academy of Political Sciences; the MS Swaminathan Research Founda- Board; he has published extensively on CPIS, Prospect Mira 36, Moscow, Russ- tion in Chennai, India; MS Swaminathan strategic and security issues; 18/803, Her- ian Federation 129010, Tel. (++7-095) Research Foundation, 3rd Cross Street, itage City, Mehrauli Road, Gurgaon- 280-3441, Fax: (++7-095) 280-0245, E- Taramani Institutional Area, Chennai- 122002, India, Tel.: (++91-124) 891- mail: [email protected] 600 113, India, Tel.: (++91-44) 254 2790 7701, E-mail: [email protected] (or) / 1698, Fax: (++91-44) 254 1319, E-mail: Prof. Hitoshi Ohnishi is Professor of [email protected] [email protected] International Relations and Deputy Presi- dent at Tohoku University in Sendai,

80 Pugwash Newsletter, June 2006 Calendar of Future Pugwash Meetings

7–8 June 2006 Pugwash Meeting no. 320: Pugwash Workshop on Nuclear Amsterdam, The Netherlands Non-Proliferation and Disarmament: The role of Europe

16–18 June 2006 Pugwash Meeting no. 321: Pugwash Netherlands Workshop on Wageningen, The Netherlands New Challenges to Human Security

25–28 September 2006 ISODARCO Meeting Xiamen, Fujian Province 10th PIIC Beijing Seminar on International Security: China Harmony Makes the World Stable and Secure

10–15 November 2006 56th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs: Cairo, Egypt A Region in Transition: Peace and Reform in the Middle East

14–21 January 2007 20th ISODARCO Winter Course: Terrorism, Counterterrorism, Andalo, Italy and Human Rights

2007

5–7 July 2007 Pugwash 50th Anniversary Workshop: Pugwash, Nova Scotia Revitalizing Nuclear Disarmament

October 2007 57th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs: Bari, Italy The Fiftieth Anniversary of Pugwash Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs

President Professor M.S. Swaminathan Secretary-General Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Executive Director Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell

Pugwash Council Chair Professor Marie Muller

Members Ambassador Ochieng Adala Amb. Miguel Marin-Bosch Professor Fernando de Souza Barros Professor Anne McLaren Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell Dr. Steven Miller Professor Francesco Calogero Dr. Götz Neuneck Dr. Pierre Canonne Dr. Alexander Nikitin Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Professor Hitoshi Ohnishi Dr. Lynn Eden Maj. Gen. (ret.) Pan Zhenqiang Professor Galia Golan-Gild Senator Douglas Roche Professor Karen Hallberg Academician Yuri Ryzhov Professor Pervez Hoodbhoy Air Commodore Jasjit Singh Mr. Chen Jifeng Professor Ivo Slaus Maj. Gen. Mohamed Kadry Said Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh Prof. Saideh Lotfian Professor M.S. Swaminathan

Pugwash Executive Committee Chairman Professor Paolo Cotta-Ramusino Members Dr. Jeffrey Boutwell Professor M.S. Swaminathan Prof. Saideh Lotfian Maj. Gen. (ret.) Pan Zhenqiang Professor Marie Muller

Rome Office Washington, DC Office Geneva Office London Office Accademia Nazionale de Lincei 1111 19th Street NW 16 rue de la Voie-Creuse Flat A Museum Mansions via della Lungara, 10 12th Floor 1211 Geneva, Switzerland 63A Great Russell Street I-00165 Rome, Italy Washington, DC 20036 Phone: **41-22-919-7920 London WC1B 3BJ, England Phone: **39-06-6872606 Phone: **1-202-478-3440 Fax: **41-22-919-7925 Phone: **44-20-7405-6661 Fax: **39-06-6878376 Fax: **1-202-238-9604 E-mail: [email protected] Fax: **44-20-7831-5651 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]