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The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity LIFELINES: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized STRONGER POWER Improving Power Sector Resilience to Natural Hazards Public Disclosure Authorized Claire Nicolas Jun Rentschler Albertine Potter van Loon Sam Oguah Amy Schweikert Mark Deinert Elco Koks Public Disclosure Authorized Christopher Arderne Diana Cubas Jie Li Eriko Ichikawa © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 19 18 17 16 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org /licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Nicolas, C., J. Rentschler, A. Potter van Loon, S. Oguah, A. Schweikert, M. Deinert, E. Koks, C. Arderne, D. Cubas, J. Li, E. Ichikawa. 2019. “Stronger Power : Improving Power Sector Resilience to Natural Hazards.” Sector note for LIFELINES: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity, World Bank, Washington, DC. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover design by Brad Amburn. 1 Summary The power sector is both highly vulnerable to natural hazards and a priority for any country’s recovery and reconstruction. After Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017, most of the power grid was down. One year and tens of billions of dollars later some customers were yet to be reconnected to the main grid. This type of long and widespread power outage has major consequences on people’s health and well-being, for instance through lacking access to refrigeration for food and medicine, and on the ability of firms to produce and provide people with goods, services, jobs, and income In most countries, the power system is designed to cope with high-frequency but relatively low- impact events. Low-frequency, high-impact events – such as many natural disasters – are rarely considered fully, and the implementation of planned management measures is often patchy. Furthermore, the power system is a special kind of infrastructure due to the heterogeneity of the generation assets and its wide spatial distribution. The latter means that power systems are often exposed to natural hazards and sometimes to more than one hazard, leading to high repair costs when disasters strike. This paper, prepared as a sectoral note for the Lifelines report on infrastructure resilience, investigates the vulnerability of the power system to natural hazards and climate change, and provides recommendations to increase its resilience. It first describes how power outages are often the consequence of natural disasters and outlines the main vulnerabilities of the power sector. It then proposes a range of approaches and solutions for building a more resilient power sector – from increased robustness to greater flexibility – showing that the additional cost of resilience is not high if resources are well spent. Finally, it describes how emergency preparedness and disaster recovery encompass not only technical aspects, like asset strengthening or criticality analysis, but also “softer” skills, like governance, regulatory or capacity building, and education. 2 Contents 1. Introduction............................................................................................................................. 4 2. Power sector infrastructure is heterogeneous. So is its vulnerability to natural disasters. 6 1.1. Severe weather events, particularly storms, are among the main causes of power outages around the world ....................................................................................................... 6 1.2. Power sector vulnerability to natural disasters ............................................................... 9 1.2.1. Thermal generation (oil, coal, gas, and diesel generators) .................................... 10 1.2.2. Nuclear generation ................................................................................................ 11 1.2.3. Hydropower generation ......................................................................................... 12 1.2.4. Solar photovoltaic and wind generation ................................................................ 13 1.2.5. Power grid: transmission and distribution infrastructure ..................................... 13 1.2.6. Climate change will increase the power system’s exposure to natural disasters . 14 3. Global power system exposure to natural hazards and risk ............................................... 16 3.1 Exposure and risk for power generation infrastructure ................................................ 16 3.2 Exposure of transmission and distribution infrastructure ............................................. 20 4. Improving power sector resilience ....................................................................................... 23 4.1 The costs of increasing power system robustness ........................................................ 23 4.1.1 Hardening infrastructure ....................................................................................... 23 4.1.2 The incremental cost of hardening infrastructure remains limited ...................... 25 4.1.3 Good maintenance can reduce costs and increase resilience ............................... 28 4.2 Better planning and understanding of system effects can reduce the cost of resilience 29 4.2.1 Criticality analysis: Targeting investment where it matters most ......................... 30 4.2.2 Diversification and flexibility: increasing network versatility ................................ 31 4.2.3 Smart grids and innovations to improve power system operations ...................... 33 4.2.4 Dealing with uncertainties: Planning better, forecasting better? ......................... 34 4.3 An example: the Case of Orion ...................................................................................... 35 5. Before and after disaster: preparedness and recovery ....................................................... 37 5.1 The critical role of contingency plans ............................................................................ 37 5.1.1 Emergency Preparedness Strategies for Power Utilities ....................................... 37 5.1.2 Emergency Preparedness of Electricity Users ........................................................ 39 5.2 After the disaster: quick and effective recovery ............................................................ 41 5.2.1 Policy-level interventions ....................................................................................... 41 5.2.2 Operational-level actions ....................................................................................... 41 References ..................................................................................................................................... 42 3 1. Introduction Natural hazards are among the leading causes of power outages around the world. For instance, after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017, most of the power grid was down. One
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