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Asian Development Outlook 2015. Financing Asia's Future Growth

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Asian Development Outlook 2015. Financing Asia's Future Growth Asian Development Outlook 2015 Financing Asia’s Future Growth The annual Asian Development Outlook provides a comprehensive analysis of economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Steady growth in the region is sustained by economic reform at home, soft commodity prices, and reviving demand from the advanced economies. Moderation in the People’s Republic of China as it pursues higher- quality growth is balanced by acceleration in Southeast Asia and India, the region’s other reforming giant. Risks to the growth outlook include possible capital outflows under higher interest rates expected this year in the United States, an oil price reversal, and deepening recession in the Russian Federation. This edition makes the case for further developing Asia’s financial sector to broaden access for households and firms to affordable finance that can spur investment, innovation, and inclusive growth. The challenge for policy makers is to strengthen the governance of financial institutions to protect stability while exploring the benefits of flexible regulation that promotes inclusive growth. Financing Asia’s Future Growth Future Asia’s Financing 2015 OUTLOOK DEVELOPMENT ASIAN About the Asian Development Bank ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to the majority of the world’s poor. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2015 FINANCING ASIA’S FUTURE GROWTH ISBN 978-92-9254-895-7 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK www.adb.org ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2015 FINANCING ASIA’S FUTURE GROWTH ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2015 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444; Fax +63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org; openaccess.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2015. Printed in the Philippines. ISBN 978-92-9254-895-7 (Print), 978-92-9254-896-4 (PDF) ISSN 0117-0481 Publication Stock No. FLS157088-3 Cataloging-In-Publication Data Asian Development Bank. Asian development outlook 2015. Financing Asia’s future growth. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2015. 1. Economics. 2. Finance. 3. Asia. I. Asian Development Bank. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of said license as well as the Terms of Use of the ADB Open Access Repository at openaccess.adb.org/termsofuse This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Attribution—In acknowledging ADB as the source, please be sure to include all of the following information: Author. Year of publication. Title of the material. © Asian Development Bank [and/or Publisher]. https://openaccess.adb.org. Available under a CC BY 3.0 IGO license. Translations—Any translations you create should carry the following disclaimer: Originally published by the Asian Development Bank in English under the title [title] © [Year of publication] Asian Development Bank. All rights reserved. The quality of this translation and its coherence with the original text is the sole responsibility of the [translator]. The English original of this work is the only official version. Adaptations—Any adaptations you create should carry the following disclaimer: This is an adaptation of an original Work © Asian Development Bank [Year]. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADB or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not endorse this work or guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Please contact [email protected] or [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo. Contents Foreword v Acknowledgments vii Definitions viii Abbreviations ix ADO 2015—Highlights xi Part 1 Oil in the gears of growth 1 Steady growth and stable prices in developing Asia 4 How lower oil prices affect Asia 18 Is Asia’s rising debt a threat to growth? 25 Annex: Low oil price supports recovery 32 Part 2 Financing Asia’s future growth 45 The case for financial sector deepening 48 Financial development for growth 58 Financial access for inclusion 71 Financial stability to safeguard inclusive growth 80 Financing Asia’s future growth 92 Annex: Financial structure in developing Asia, 2011 102 Part 3 Economic trends and prospects in developing Asia 103 Central Asia 105 Armenia 107 Azerbaijan 111 Georgia 115 Kazakhstan 119 Kyrgyz Republic 124 Tajikistan 128 Turkmenistan 132 Uzbekistan 135 East Asia 140 People’s Republic of China 141 Hong Kong, China 149 Republic of Korea 153 Mongolia 158 Taipei,China 162 South Asia 166 Afghanistan 167 Bangladesh 170 Bhutan 177 India 181 Maldives 188 Nepal 192 Pakistan 196 Sri Lanka 202 Southeast Asia 207 Brunei Darussalam 209 Cambodia 212 Indonesia 215 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 220 Malaysia 223 Myanmar 227 Philippines 230 Singapore 234 Thailand 238 Viet Nam 243 The Pacific 248 Fiji 249 Papua New Guinea 253 Solomon Islands 258 Timor-Leste 261 Vanuatu 265 North Pacific economies 269 South Pacific economies 273 Small island economies 278 Statistical appendix 281 Foreword Developing Asia remained the main source of global economic growth in 2014. Domestic policy reform, benign commodity prices, and some strengthening of demand from the advanced economies supported the region’s growth. Asian Development Outlook 2015 forecasts that the 6.3% rate of gross domestic product (GDP) expansion achieved in 2014 will continue into 2015 and 2016. The steady outlook for the region sees growth picking up enough in India and most member economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to compensate for moderating growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Low oil prices and accommodative monetary policy will support ongoing efforts in the euro area and Japan to achieve steady recovery. Meanwhile, the United States (US) is finally showing signs of more robust, sustainable growth momentum, to the extent that its normalization of monetary policy is now widely expected in mid-2015. Together, the major industrial economies are envisaged expanding by 2.2% in 2015, up from 1.6% growth in 2014, and accelerating further to 2.4% in 2016. Continued reform implementation in the PRC and India—both of which expanded by 7.4% in 2014—provides the foundation for the region’s prospects. The PRC is forecast to achieve the government’s growth target of about 7.0% in 2015 and 2016, with reform helping to shift the economy toward a more balanced growth model. India is poised to expand by 7.8% in 2015 and 8.2% in 2016, as reform lifts investor confidence, monetary policy eases, and capital expenditure rises. Moreover, strengthening growth is anticipated in Southeast Asia, and regional economic integration there will gain further traction with the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community at the end of 2015. To achieve the steady growth envisaged in this report, policy makers in developing Asia need to be vigilant of potential risks. Risks to Asia’s growth prospects could come from an unwieldy resolution of the Greek debt crisis, deepening recession in the Russian Federation, and possible capital outflows in response to the imminent rise in US interest rates. Falling oil prices have largely been a boon for the region’s outlook, supporting higher growth and low inflation. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a real risk that could produce a sudden reversal of prices. Authorities need to be ready to deploy mitigating policy responses if any of these risks materialize. Asia has seen rapid credit growth in recent years as total domestic debt nearly doubled from $18 trillion in 2009 to $34 trillion in 2013, with private borrowing accounting for the bulk of new debt.
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