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EBRD Transition Report 2015-16

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EBRD Transition Report 2015-16 TRANSITION REPORT 2015-16 tr-ebrd.com Transition Report 2015-16 Transition R ebalancing Finance ebalancing INTERACTIVE DATA SEARCH SEARCH INTERACTIVE DATA DOWNLOAD SEARCH DOWNLOAD INTERACTIVE DATA DOWNLOAD BOOKMARK BOOKMARK BOOKMARK CHOOSE TO READ THE FULL REPORT IN ENGLISH OR RUSSIAN ON OUR SEARCH DUAL-LANGUAGE, INTERACTIVE DATA DOWNLOAD RESPONSIVE MICROSITE SEARCH INTERACTIVE DATA BOOKMARK DOWNLOAD BOOKMARK VIEW COUNTRY SEARCH, DOWNLOAD ASSESSMENTS VIA AND BOOKMARK THE INTERACTIVE ESSENTIAL CONTENT MAP TOOL AND VIA THE ONLINE MENU DOWNLOAD DIRECTLY TO YOUR DEVICE SEARCH INTERACTIVE DATA EASILY DOWNLOAD ACCESSIBLE BOOKMARK INFORMATION SEARCH SEARCH INTERACTIVE DATA ONLINE AND INTERACTIVE DATA DOWNLOAD DOWNLOAD BOOKMARK IN PRINT BOOKMARK SEARCH INTERACTIVE DATA DOWNLOAD BOOKMARK YOU CAN SHARE WATCH THE AUTHOR YOUR FAVOURITE SUMMARY VIDEOS CONTENT BY ONLINE AND GET AN USING THE SOCIAL INSTANT OVERVIEW MEDIA BUTTONS SEARCH OF EACH CHAPTER INTERACTIVE DATA DOWNLOADSEARCH INTERACTIVE DATA BOOKMARKDOWNLOAD BOOKMARK DYNAMIC DETAILED DATA AT DATA YOUR FINGERTIPS WITH OUR INTERACTIVE FULLY ONLINE CHARTS RESPONSIVE SHARE CONTENT TR-EBRD.COM DUAL- The Transition Report is available both online and in print. Visit LANGUAGE the digital version at tr-ebrd.com, EASY which features multimedia content and 36 country assessments. DOWNLOADS TRANSITION REPORT ABOUT THIS REPORT 01 2015-16 REBALANCING FINANCE ABOUT THIS REPORT The EBRD seeks to foster the transition to an open market-oriented economy and to promote entrepreneurship in its countries of operations. To perform this task effectively, the Bank needs to analyse and understand the process of transition. The purpose of the Transition Report is to advance this understanding and to share our analysis with partners. The responsibility for the content of the publication is taken by the Office of the Chief Economist. The assessments and views expressed are not necessarily those of the EBRD. All assessments and data are based on information as of early October 2015. tr-ebrd.com COUNTRY ABBREVIATIONS GLOSSARY Albania ALB Tajikistan TJK A glossary for this Armenia ARM Tunisia TUN Transition Report Azerbaijan AZE Turkey TUR is available at Belarus BEL Turkmenistan TKM tr-ebrd.com. Bosnia and Herz. BOS Ukraine UKR Bulgaria BUL Uzbekistan UZB Croatia CRO Cyprus CYP Argentina ARG Egypt EGY Australia AUS Estonia EST Brazil BRA FYR Macedonia FYR Canada CAN Georgia GEO China CHN Greece GRC Czech Republic CZE Hungary HUN Finland FIN Jordan JOR France FRA Kazakhstan KAZ Germany GER Kosovo KOS India IND Kyrgyz Republic KGZ Indonesia IDN Latvia LAT Israel ISR Lithuania LIT Italy ITA Moldova MDA Japan JPN Mongolia MON Netherlands NED Montenegro MNG Saudi Arabia SAU Morocco MOR Singapore SGP Poland POL South Africa ZAF Romania ROM South Korea KOR Russia RUS Thailand THA Serbia SER United Kingdom UK Slovak Republic SVK United States USA Slovenia SLO 02 TRANSITION REPORT CONTENTS 2015-16 REBALANCING FINANCE CONTENTS 04 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 08 F OREWORD 10 CHAPTER 1 R EBALANCING FINANCE AND BOOSTING INVESTMENT 11 Introduction 13 Savings, investment and financing needs 16 Debt finance: is the transition region overleveraged? 20 Debt sustainability and the composition of debt from an international perspective 21 Equity finance: an alternative to growing indebtedness 24 Conclusion 27 References 28 CHAPTER 2 SM ALL BUSINESSES AND THE CREDIT CRUNCH 30 Introduction 30 Credit constraints: what firms and banks say 34 Financial rebalancing and SMEs’ access to credit 36 SMEs’ access to credit: a local view 39 Conclusion 45 References 46 Annex 2.1: Enhancing legal frameworks to facilitate access to finance EASILY ACCESSIBLE INFORMATION ONLINE AND IN PRINT TR-EBRD.COM 03 50 CHAPTER 3 78 MACROECONOMIC TR ENDS AND VALUE CREATION OVERVIEW IN PRIVATE EQUITY 79 Introduction 50 Introduction 79 Economic growth in the region 52 What is private equity? 80 Declining commodity prices 54 Recent trends in private equity 81 Launch of a quantitative easing programme in 56 How do private equity funds create value the eurozone and the crisis in Greece for investors? 82 Expected monetary policy tightening in the 57 How do equity funds create value in the United States transition region? 83 Increased geopolitical uncertainty 57 What explains financial returns on private 83 Inflation and interest rates equity? 84 Unemployment 59 What drives financial returns: leverage, timing 84 Capital flows and remittances or efficiency gains? 85 Currency movements 60 Returns by deal type and investment strategy 85 Credit conditions and non-performing loans 61 Drivers of operational improvements 86 Outlook and risks 62 Conclusion 87 References 63 References 88 STRUCTURAL REFORM 64 CHAPTER 4 P RIVATE EQUITY AS A SOURCE 88 Introduction OF GROWTH 90 Sector-level transition indicators 90 Infrastructure 65 Introduction 92 Corporate sectors 66 Private equity and economic outcomes 92 Financial sectors 67 The impact of private equity on firms in the 92 Energy transition region 93 Sustainable resources – a new approach to 70 Scaling up private equity in the transition region measurement 72 What can policy-makers do? 94 Youth and gender inclusion gaps 74 Conclusion 97 References 77 References 98 A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS 04 TRANSITION REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2015-16 REBALANCING FINANCE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It has been almost a decade since the Transition Report last of credit in the region (that is to say, the percentage of lending looked in detail at the EBRD region’s financial sectors. In that denominated in a foreign currency) remains exceptionally high time, the global financial system has undergone major changes by global standards. On average, around 50 per cent of the total and nowhere have these changes been more profound than in debt of households, firms and governments was denominated the countries where the EBRD invests. This report looks at the in a foreign currency in 2014. Successful rebalancing in this evolution of finance in the transition region following the crisis of regard will require not only macroeconomic stabilisation, but 2008-09 and considers the question of how finance should be also, in some countries, changes to banks’ funding models, rebalanced to provide more diverse and stable funding flows in with shifts from foreign wholesale funding to domestic sources. support of economic development. Furthermore, investment finance in the region would benefit from The report considers not only the quantity of finance but more diverse capital flows and investment partnerships, with also its composition and quality. In many countries in the other emerging markets and non-European advanced economies region, credit-fuelled boom-bust cycles have resulted in playing a greater role. dual economies where some parts of the private sector are Finance is a vast subject area and a document such as overindebted while others remain cut off from any access to this cannot hope to cover all of it. This report is by no means credit or equity. This duality is reflected in the exceptionally high exhaustive, nor does it necessarily focus on the largest areas levels of non-performing loans (NPLs) compared with other of finance. Instead, it looks in detail at a few issues – such as emerging markets and advanced economies. Indeed, in half bank finance for small businesses, private equity investment of the countries in the region NPLs exceed 10 per cent of total and the geographical diversification of sources of foreign direct loans and 5 per cent of GDP. At the same time, many small and investment – that illustrate the broader themes of the report. medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are unable to finance their The last part of the report examines recent economic investment projects. developments in the region. Over the last year, the economic The four chapters in this Transition Report argue that the outlook for the transition region has been reshaped by a financial system needs to be rebalanced in a number of ways in significant decline in oil prices, increased geopolitical uncertainty order to provide more diverse sources of funding in support of and the launch of a quantitative easing programme in the growth. Equity financing, in particular, needs to play more of a eurozone. However, despite this challenging economic and role, so two of the chapters look in detail at the region’s incipient political environment, the outlook for market reforms appears private equity sector. These chapters highlight the special role to have improved. Assessments of economic developments and that equity financing – and private equity capital in particular – structural reforms in individual countries across the transition can play in supporting investment, productivity increases and region are available online at tr-ebrd.com. better management within firms. Thus, private equity could help to revitalise the transition process. The need to shift from foreign currency-denominated finance to local currency credit markets is another priority. Seven years after the start of the financial crisis, the dollarisation 05 REBALANCING SMALL FINANCE AND BUSINESSES BOOSTING AND THE CREDIT INVESTMENT CRUNCH Prior to the financial crisis, a credit boom in the region boosted This chapter uses a combination of macroeconomic, firm-level levels of investment and growth, but resulted in large and ever- and bank-level data to gauge the extent to which firms across increasing external imbalances financed by cross-border capital the transition region have become more credit constrained in flows. With the crisis
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