Americans and Climate Change Americans and Climate Change Closing the Gap Between Science and Action Americans and “The Conference brought together the best and the brightest from key sectors to listen, learn and work together. Most importantly, it gave us an opportunity to come up with clear and specific action for taking on one of the biggest challenges of our time.” james e. rogers, chairman and ceo, cinergy corp. Climate Change “A major recommendation to emerge from the breakthrough dialogue described here is that global warming must now be viewed fundamentally as a moral and spiritual issue. This will change the nature of the debate, and draw in believers of all faiths, particularly evangelical Christians, who have hereto- Closing the Gap Between Science and Action fore regarded it as an “environmental” matter only. The 86 leaders who recently signed the “Evangelical Climate Initiative” agree with this basic assumption. That some religious leaders disagree only makes this report more significant. If one reads and studies these pages, the inescapable conclusion is that we A Synthesis of Insights and Recommendations must all come together as Americans to act in responsible ways to solve this crisis.” from the 2005 Yale F&ES Conference on Climate Change reverend richard cizik, vice president of government affairs, national association of evangelicals
“This conference, unlike most, was able to combine both the clarification of a macro challenge and the key action steps needed to help resolve that challenge with its complex overlay of political, scientific, and attitudinal dimensions. One thing stands out: the stakes on climate change are simply too high for us to continue approaching it as a partisan issue. Republicans and Democrats need to get together on Daniel R. Abbasi this as Americans above all. Read this insightful report and let’s get started.” richard b. wirthlin, chief strategist to president ronald reagan; founder, wirthlin worldwide With a Foreword by James Gustave Speth Daniel R. Abbasi
“The world desperately needs to know what we scientists are learning from our research endeavors. We can no longer afford to talk principally to each other, in a language understandable only to us. This illuminating report arose from a path-breaking conference and outlines concrete steps that will help scientists better explain the real-life implications of our research on climate change to decision-makers and the public so that needed action can be taken — and not a moment too soon.” dr. jane lubchenco, valley professor of marine biology and distinguished professor of zoology, oregon state university; former president, american association for the advancement of science
“This report makes clear that the science is now in: global warming is for real. Climate change cannot be understood or responsibly dealt with if either science or environmental concerns are politicized.” Yale Forestry School of & Environmental Studies congressman james a. leach (r-ia), u.s. house of representatives
“Addressing the global threat of climate change requires more than just scientific consensus. This conference allowed the time and resources for exactly the type of meeting of industry, government, and civil society leaders that is needed if we are to move past talking about this growing threat, and start taking action. Quite frankly, the future of our economy and our way of life depend on it.” mindy s. lubber, president, ceres
“This important contribution reflects a unique coalition-building effort. What emerged was a wide recognition of the opportunities that would result for the United States and the world if only our government would lead and recognize the reality of global climate change.” timothy e. wirth, president, united nations foundation and better world fund, former u.s. senator (d-co)
“A fresh approach to the complex and often-controversial issue of global climate change — a collabora- tive effort, united by a simple, straightforward goal, namely to get things done. Daniel Abbasi does a skillful job of weaving together divergent views — those of science, business, government, and the media — so that a framework for change begins to take shape. A wonderfully put together book.” eileen claussen, president, pew center on global climate change
www.yale.edu/environment/publications yale school of forestry & environmental studies
Americans and Climate Change Closing the Gap Between Science and Action
A Synthesis of Insights and Recommendations from the 2005 Yale F&ES Conference on Climate Change
Daniel R. Abbasi With a Foreword by James Gustave Speth yale school of forestry & environmental studies publication series
Title Americans and Climate Change: Closing the Gap between Science and Action Volume author Daniel R. Abbasi Book design Peter W. Johnson and Maura Gianakos, YaleRIS Cover design Maura Gianakos, YaleRIS Cover image The image on the cover is a snapshot from a climate simulation model that runs from 1920-2080. The model is being run by harnessing desktop computers around the world at climateprediction.net, a collaborative project of the University of Oxford, the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and others. Used with permission. To participate in the model using your desktop computer, go to: www.climateprediction.net Page layout Dorothy Scott, North Branford, CT Print on demand Yale Reprographics and Imaging Services (RIS) Publication series Jane Coppock editor Paper Mohawk Creme 30% recycled To obtain copies This book is available as a free downloadable pdf at www.yale.edu/environment/publications. Hard copies may be ordered at the same website.
The opinions, findings, and interpretations of research contained in this volume are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect positions of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies or participants in the conference described in this volume.
Permission is granted to reproduce material in this volume without prior written consent so long as proper attribution is made.
To learn more about how you can participate in implementation of the full set of 39 recommendations, please visit: http://environment.yale.edu/climate.
ISBN 0-9707882-4-X
@ 2006 Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies “We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are con- fronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late. Procrastination is still the thief of time. Life often leaves us standing bare, naked and dejected with a lost opportunity. The ‘tide in the affairs of men’ does not remain at the flood; it ebbs. We may cry out desperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are writ- ten the pathetic words: ‘Too late....’”
— Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
Table of Contents acknowledgements 1 foreword 5 James Gustave Speth executive summary 9 part i: matching up to the perfect problem 15 Introduction 17 Scientific Disconnects 24 From Science to Values 39 Packaging Climate Change as an Energy Issue 49 Incentives 54 Diffusion of Responsibility 68 The Affliction of Partisanship 74 Setting Goals 80 Leveraging the Social Sciences 97 part ii: diagnoses and recommendations 105 Science 107 News Media 121 Religion & Ethics 131 Politics 141 Entertainment & Advertising 155 Education 165 Business & Finance 175 Environmentalists & Civil Society 187 summary list of conference 197 recommendations list of conference participants 203 about the author 211
acknowledgements 1
Acknowledgements
Reverend and former Congressman Bob Edgar brought the house down at our Conference in Aspen when he recited the arresting Martin Luther King, Jr. quote that opens this report. But what was remarkable about our Conference was that nearly everyone there brought the house down at some point – in their unique ways. Whether through quiet moments of candor, piercing insights about dynamics in our society or intense debates, our remarkable participants delivered on the challenging mandate set before them. Therefore our first and most important acknowledgement here is of that special group of Americans who joined us in Aspen. We thank them for their inspiring and successful modeling of the kind of dialogue our society needs to have more of, at all levels, on climate change and many other high-stakes issues facing our country and world – and for their ongoing contributions to implementing the action recommendations they devised. Special thanks are due to our keynote speakers, who delivered inspiring remarks that illuminated the dynamics we were exploring in the Conference and also challenged the participants to work even harder to get at robust answers. Not only did they provide thoughtful speeches, they also stayed to engage thoroughly in the working group dialogues: Al Gore, John Kerry, Jim Leach and Jim Rogers. I express my profound thanks to Gus Speth, the Dean of our School, who has brought extraordinary vision to everything he’s done throughout his remarkable career of leadership on issues of environment and development – and continued that record in our collaboration on this Conference. Working with him on this and other endeavors is a professional and personal privilege. Without him, this Conference and the broader Yale “science-to-action” collaborative that has emerged from it would not have been possible. Ellen Susman, Susan Crown and Marne Obernauer provided the original inspiration to exercise our School’s convening capacity in this way, and to do so in Aspen, a special venue conducive to fresh thinking. Special thanks are due to Susan for providing key insights on our substantive goals and program, and for lending her knowledge of place as we scouted specific locations. The following individuals shared invaluable insights in advance calls and meetings to make our mandate and program as engaging and worthwhile as possible: Ed Bass, Frances Beinecke, Peggy Bewkes, Steve 2 americans and climate change
Curwood, Paul Gorman, Al Jubitz, Marty Kaplan, Larry Linden, Tom Lovejoy, Jonathan Rose, Steve Schneider, Peter Seligmann, Dave Skelly and Dick Wirthlin. The following group of important thinkers provided outstanding panel presentations that crystallized key issues for our participants to take to their working groups: Stephen Bocking, Baruch Fischhoff, Melanie Green, Jon Krosnick, George Lakoff, Jane Lubchenco, Arthur Lupia, Steve Schneider and Richard Somerville. We acknowledge with gratitude Susan Crown, Bob Edgar, Al Franken, Susan Hassol and Tim Wirth for their stage-setting contributions. Our working groups were chaired by an exceptional group of thoughtful leaders and academics: Jessica Catto, Marian Chertow, Richard Cizik, Dan Esty, David Fenton, Steve Kellert, Jonathan Lash, Debbie Levin, Jane Lubchenco and Jack Riggs. All of the following enthusiastically and with great distinction performed the critical function of writing kickoff papers to set the table for our Conference: Frances Beinecke, Richard Cizik, Eileen Claussen, Kevin Coyle, Cornelia Dean, Bill Ellis, Brad Gentry, Melanie Green, Patricia Mastrandrea, Manik Roy and Steve Schneider. The following talented individuals, most of them students at or alumni/ae of our School, did a great job as rapporteurs, capturing points from the meeting without which I could not have written this report, and also applying their keen judgment in advancing the dialogues. This group will continue to have a big impact on the climate change issue in the coming years: Maya Fischhoff, Kaitlin Gregg, Ann Grodnik, Kate Hamilton, Heather Kaplan, Virginia Lacy, Kelly Levin, Derek Murrow and Linda Shi. The Conference and the ongoing implementation of this action plan would not be possible without the generosity of many individual donors and foundations who understood what we were trying to do and then did so much to help us shape it. Their continuing support and counsel are valued very highly by all of us at the School. We thank: Ed Bass, Frances Beinecke, Sally Brown, Jessica Catto, Susan Crown, Al Jubitz, Randy Katz, Larry Linden, Marne Obernauer, Jonathan Rose, Roger Sant, John Scurci, Ellen Susman, the Betsy and Jesse Fink Foundation, Hewlett Foundation, Kendall Foundation, W. L. Lyons Brown Foundation, Summit Foundation, Surdna Foundation and Winslow Foundation. I express my deepest appreciation to Bill Ellis for his incisive guidance in sharpening the concept for this undertaking right from the outset and providing invaluable counsel throughout. His years as a corporate chieftain also proved indispensable in recruiting key participants. acknowledgements 3
We benefited enormously from Dan Esty’s proven skills in inter- disciplinary research and practice as we refined our plans for the Conference. I also thank him for his guidance and vision in developing the research program of the Environmental Attitudes and Behavior Project, which I direct at the Yale Center on Environmental Law and Policy and which is becoming a hub for social science activity in furtherance of our Conference action plan. Melissa Goodall and the rest of the Center team have, under Dan Esty’s leadership, built a dynamic enterprise. The Conference and all the program activities around it, including this report, have been a true team effort, and I especially thank my talented and committed team at Yale for all they do every day: Chris Galvin, Jane Coppock, David DeFusco and Paul Smith. Chris deserves special recognition as the point-man on the Conference for performing his many demanding roles with aplomb and great interpersonal skill. The School’s Office of Development has been versatile and indispensable throughout this effort: Fred Regan brought a continual flow of important insights, and Eugénie Gentry, Mike Kiernan, Connie Royster and Michele Whitney were big contributors to our success. Deputy Dean Alan Brewster deserves appreciation for his steady hand and wise counsel, along with the Dean’s office: Assistant Dean Pilar Montalvo, Catherine Marshall, Margot Massari and Sherry Ryan. I express special gratitude to my good friends Baruch Fischhoff, Jon Krosnick and Arthur Lupia, extraordinarily gifted scholars who gave of their time and insight to help us think through our plan for melding academic and practitioner perspectives at this Conference and for creatively engaging the social sciences in grappling with the challenge of motivating societal action on climate change. John Ehrmann, a nationally recognized facilitator in the environmental arena, provided insightful guidance as we designed our experimental format as well as on-site counsel, as did Jack Riggs of the Aspen Institute. I thank Jason MacEachen, Doug Crawford and the rest of the Aspen Institute team for providing a wonderfully conducive environment for our Conference. Since the Conference, a number of implementation activities, partnerships and presentations about the Conference findings have been underway with a wide range of special people, including David Blockstein, Erica Dawson, Bob Edgar, David Elisco, Anne Kelly, Mindy Lubber, Richard Somerville and Tim Wirth. Director of Alumni/ae Affairs Kath Schomaker has also engaged our School’s talented 4 americans and climate change
alumni/ae into the implementation effort, and I’m grateful to her and to them. Fred Strebeigh, a colleague at Yale, generously read this report and offered valuable comments, as did Dave DeFusco, Bill Ellis, Kate Hamilton and Gus Speth. Many thanks are due to Jane Coppock, Assistant Dean and Editor of the Yale F&ES Publication Series, and to Dorothy Scott and Eve Hornstein, for their excellent work and dedication in shepherding the report to publication. I thank Jesse Fink and the team at MSM Capital Partners for the great collaboration and camaraderie as we put financial markets to work to mitigate climate change, especially: Mark Cirilli, Ramsay Ravenel, Mark Schwartz, Martin Whittaker, Ryan Franco, Charles Byrd, Dan Donovan, Patty Nolan and Tanya Boland. My mother Susan and stepfather Wendell Fletcher have my heartfelt love and appreciation. I express my deepest love to my wife, Deborah Smith, and children – Jordy, Eli and Isabelle – for everything, including their forbearance as I have diverted so much time to this consuming work on climate change. I hold out hope that these efforts, along with those of so many others, will have an effect on improving my children’s lives and those of their contemporaries.
Daniel R. Abbasi March 2006 foreword 5
Foreword
James Gustave Speth Dean, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
Despite credible forecasts and warnings from the scientific community about climate change for a quarter of a century, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to grow, signals of human-induced climate change have clearly emerged, and a preponderance of scientists studying the issue project more adverse consequences to come unless stronger actions are taken. Yet a substantial political gulf persists between those advocating such actions and those opposed. Sir David King, Chief Scientific Advisor to the British government, wrote in Science in 2004 that “climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today – more serious even than the threat of terrorism.” He called for “early, well-planned action” leading to the developed economies cutting their greenhouse gas emissions by 60 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, and warned that “delaying action for decades, or even years, is not a serious option.”* But public and policy-maker commitment to action of this seriousness remains elusive indeed. The U.S. government, citing remaining scientific uncertainties, economic costs, and the unfairness of a global regulatory regime that excludes the developing world, has rejected the Kyoto Protocol and largely refrained from positive international engagement on the issue. Today there are signs everywhere that the climate issue is beginning to gain traction, but the gap between climate science and climate policy and action remains huge. What explains this gap? Is climate change merely one instance of a larger problem, namely, the expanding gulf between the increasingly scientific and technical content of public policy issues on the one hand, and the declining public understanding of science and technology on the other? Good environmental science and forecasting are absolutely necessary but, it would appear, far from sufficient. If we want science to affect real-world decisions and events, how can we best address the barriers that lie between good science and effective policy and action? On October 6-8, 2005, the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies brought a group of 110 leading thinkers and actors together in
* David A. King,“Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate or Ignore,” Science,Vol. 303, 9 January 2004: 176-77. 6 americans and climate change
Aspen, Colorado, for a conference entitled “Climate Change: From Science to Action.” Our goal was to examine the gap between climate science and climate policy and action, with a particular focus on public understanding as a key intervening variable. Many have validated this as an area needing more focus and action. For example, General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt and World Resources Institute President Jonathan Lash asserted in a Washington Post Op-Ed in mid-2005 that the key missing ingredient in tackling our energy and climate challenges is a “strong dose of public will.” Reflecting our belief that society’s response to climate change is an interactive and complex equation, we invited a diverse cross-section of participants representing eight societal “domains”: Science, News Media, Religion & Ethics, Politics, Entertainment & Advertising, Education, Business & Finance and Environmentalists & Civil Society. We created eight working groups and asked each to develop: