>> POLICY BRIEF ISSN: 1989-2667

Nº 91 - AUGUST 2011

Is Poland still committed to the Eastern neighbourhood?

Natalia Shapovalova and Tomasz Kapu niak

During its current EU presidency, Poland aims to reinforce >> the EU’s engagement with its Eastern neighbourhood. Yet many in and Tbilisi believe that Warsaw’s ‘reset’ with Russia HIGHLIGHTS has been undertaken at the expense of Poland’s relations with , Georgia and other Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. They fear Poland is losing interest in its Eastern partners. • Poland’s Eastern policy is Europeanising: Poland adheres to Examining Poland’s Eastern policy, we conclude here that there is little EU foreign policy priorities and evidence that Warsaw has either diminished its interest in or changed promotes its Eastern agenda at its goals towards its Eastern neighbours. Warsaw continues to support the EU level. the latter’s democratisation and integration into the EU and NATO. • The Russia-Poland ‘reset’ has But the style and instruments of Poland’s policy have changed as the brought limited results in bilateral country increasingly channels its Eastern policy goals via EU structures relations, but has strengthened and takes larger member states’ interests into account. Poland’s role in EU policy towards Europeanisation has thus become a new factor in defining Poland’s the Eastern neighbourhood. policy towards the Eastern neighbourhood. This works in two • Ukraine’s importance for Poland directions. On the one hand, Poland increasingly adapts its national has not diminished, but the foreign policy to EU demands. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s policy country’s domestic developments of improving relations with Russia was partly driven by the need to complicate the strategic strengthen Poland’s position within the EU. Poland also now partnership. adheres to the EU mainstream when it engages in the EU’s Southern neighbourhood. Examples include former President Lech Wałęsa’s • Moldova and the South visit to Tunisia, Tusk’s trip to Libya, and the appointment of the Caucasus are gaining new Plenipotentiary of the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs for the importance for Poland in the Union for the Mediterranean. context of the Eastern Partnership. On the other hand, Poland successfully uses EU structures to further its national policy goals and concepts, thus benefiting from IS POLAND STILL COMMITTED TO THE EASTERN NEIGHBOURHOOD?

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>>>>>> the Union’s broader power in the world. The including the Southern Mediterranean region setting up and development of the Eastern in the same policy framework and the ENP Partnership and Poland’s policy towards sidelined the issue of membership. Only in Belarus are good examples of such ‘bottom up’ 2008 did Poland for the first time manage to Europeanisation. The two trends are symbiotic: include its own concepts into the EU’s foreign the projection of Poland’s national priorities policy. Acting jointly with Sweden, the Polish towards the East onto the EU level has been government proposed the creation of the EaP, a possible due to Warsaw’s more cooperative new policy initiative for six countries in adherence to EU objectives in its relations with Eastern Europe. Russia and the Southern neighbourhood. This was accompanied by the improvement of Poland’s relations with Russia as a result of the A LONG ROAD TO EUROPEAN pro-European and pragmatic policy of Prime INFLUENCE Minister Tusk’s government. A ‘reset’ of bilateral relations has not solved the most long-standing Among the countries of Central Europe, problems, such as the disputes over history, Poland has attached a special importance to different views on the post-soviet neighbourhood relations with its Eastern neighbours since the or the high price for Russian gas. But this 1990s. Poland’s foreign policy was primarily rapprochement has strengthened Poland’s focused on integration into NATO and the EU position within EU decision-making. Poland- in that decade, but good relations with Russia relations have increasingly become a more neighbouring countries, in particular in the normalised part of EU-Russia relations. While East, also featured among its priorities. Poland opted for an EU approach towards Russia, the EU supported Poland in trade disputes with The idea of establishing an EU policy towards Russia and accepted Poland’s leadership in the the region’s Eastern neighbours came from EU’s policy towards its Eastern European Polish think-tanks and decision-makers. At a neighbours. meeting inaugurating Poland’s accession negotiations in 1998, the then Polish foreign affairs minister called for the establishment of POLAND’S INVOLVEMENT IN THE the Eastern dimension of the enlarged EU. In EASTERN PARTNERSHIP 2003, Poland proposed a strategy calling for increased EU engagement with the region. It Poland’s strategic goal is the democratisation and advocated differentiating the EU’s relations Europeanisation of the Eastern neighbourhood. It with its Eastern neighbours (Belarus, Moldova, is often said that Poland does not want to be a Ukraine and Russia) depending on their frontier country of the EU. This is true in the respective interest in such cooperation and sense that Poland considers Europe’s unification their progress in democratisation and as a guarantee of peace on the continent and its adherence to EU values. The central role was own security. given to Ukraine which, according to the authors of the strategy, was not only to take a Traditionally, Poland has been more focused on similar place to that of Russia in EU policy, but Ukraine and Belarus due to stronger historical ties also to become a member state in the future. and a common Slavic heritage, and to a lesser extent on Moldova. The South Caucasus has not However, the concept of the European been a part of Poland’s regional activity. Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) outlined in 2003 was fundamentally different from the Polish The EaP and its partner countries (particularly proposal. The focus on the East was diluted by Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) are POLICY BRIEF - Nº 91 - AUGUST 2011

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priorities for Polish development assistance. This democracy in the neighbourhood. Since 2003, assistance has doubled since Poland’s accession to Poland has promoted the idea of a European the EU, reaching €27 million in 2011. Through Democracy Fund to support civil society its aid, Poland supports democracy and good actors. In 2011, this idea received the support governance initiatives, migration and border of the Commission and the European External management, rural and agricultural development, Action Service in the ENP review - though and entrepreneurship. some member states remain cool towards this proposal. Apart from bilateral aid, Poland is actively involved in the EU’s Eastern Partnership Nonetheless, some Polish analysts still maintain projects. Along with Central European member that their country’s engagement in the East is states, Poland has become a pioneer in the insufficient, given the significance of the region multilateral structures of the EaP by organising in Poland’s foreign policy. They point to the multilateral seminars (for example, on small number of students from EaP countries anticorruption and mobility) and sharing its and Poland’s relatively limited aid to and expertise. In the European Parliament economic impact in the neighbourhood. Polish delegation to Euronest, 11 out of 58 members investment in Ukraine, the main recipient in the are . In Ukraine, Poland has been active in region, is $893 million, which is only 2 per cent offering its experience and advice through EU- of all foreign investment to the country. Poland funded twinning projects, successfully is among the top five destinations of Belarusians competing against the ‘old’ member states more and studying abroad, but attracts experienced in this few students from other EaP countries. Poland’s interest initiative. in the Eastern The new head of UKRAINE AND BELARUS: CORE the EU Monitoring CHALLENGES neighbourhood Mission in Georgia is the former Polish Ukraine has been the centre-piece of Poland’s is long-term and ambassador to Bosnia policy towards the Eastern neighbourhood. In the strategic and Herzegovina. early 1990s Poland established a strategic This is the first time partnership with Ukraine and has promoted the that a Pole has country’s integration into the EU and NATO. represented the EU in the Eastern neigh- This partnership has not been easy given the ups bourhood. and downs of Ukraine’s democratic transition and its foreign policy U-turns. Former Polish During its EU presidency Poland will host an EaP president Aleksander Kwaśniewski was the only summit in Warsaw, and has also planned a number Western leader to visit Ukraine during its of other activities. The EaP Business Forum will be international isolation in the later Leonid inaugurated in Sopot on the Baltic Sea coast. The Kuchma era. In 2004, during the Orange third annual meeting of the EaP Civil Society revolution, Kwaśniewski led international Forum, in Poznan, will last longer than usual mediation efforts. After the revolution, Poland ostensibly to ensure the more effective impact of tried to convince other EU member states to offer NGOs. Poland envisages a number of meetings in Ukraine the prospect of accession. a 27+6 format, involving ministers in different policy areas such as transport, health and However, Ukraine’s domestic developments agriculture. Multilateral meetings are planned with have complicated Poland’s mission. First, the the heads of statistics offices and customs services. ‘Orange’ pro-European government was torn Poland advocates stronger EU support for apart by personal conflicts and did not deliver >>>>>> IS POLAND STILL COMMITTED TO THE EASTERN NEIGHBOURHOOD?

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>>>>>> on promised reforms. Then, the 2010-elected pursue its goals, above all that of encouraging president Victor Yanukovych reversed even Belarus’ democratisation and its linkages with those limited democratic achievements that Europe. Belarus was included in the EaP’s had been implemented. With unfortunate multilateral track, while extension of the EaP coincidence, during the first visit of Polish bilateral benefits was subject to Belarus’ President Bronislaw Komorowski to Ukraine, progress on democracy. Before Belarus’ the constitutional court annulled changes made elections in December 2010, the Polish and to Ukraine’s constitution in 2004, thereby re- German foreign ministers travelled to Minsk to strengthening presidential powers. offer President Lukashenka €3 billion of EU aid in exchange for a free vote. Following the latest changes of presidents in Warsaw and Kiev, Polish-Ukrainian relations After the crackdown against the opposition in are not as close as in the past. High level Minsk, the EU was obliged to return to a policy political contacts have diminished since the of sanctions. In addition, Poland restricted time of Lech Kaczyński and Victor travel for Belarusian power-holders, provided Yushchenko, who reportedly met over forty asylum for many of the persecuted opposition times during five years, both compensating for and civic activists, and increased support to their lack of contact with Russia. Victor non-state actors. In 2011, €5.5 million, or one Yanukovych has not been particularly keen on fifth of all Polish aid, will go to Belarus, mainly deepening Ukraine-Poland strategic relations. for democracy assistance projects. Lukashenka Instead, he invested primary diplomatic effort accused Poland (and Germany) of fomenting a in raising Ukraine’s profile in Brussels, Berlin coup d’état in his country and launched new and Paris, as well as with Russia and China. He sanctions against Polish-minority NGOs and paid an official visit to Poland only a year after journalists in Belarus. The problem of the his inauguration, in February 2011. Polish minority in Belarus has increasingly become an EU problem. These developments have provoked media talk of ‘Ukraine fatigue’ in Poland. Notwithstanding the Poland is one of the strongest advocates of a cooling of relations, this is an exaggeration. No visa free travel regime for EaP countries. The other country in the EU has such an enduring introduction of a visa regime between Poland interest in Ukraine or invests so much political and its immediate neighbours in the East after capital in promoting Ukraine in the EU. the former’s EU accession, and further restrictions as a result of Poland’s accession to Poland has not changed its strategy towards the Schengen area, have created the risk of a Ukraine, but rather its tactics. Given the new ‘curtain’ falling across eastern Europe. enlargement fatigue in the EU - particularly due When the EU Council discussed the issue of to opposition from France and Germany - Poland introducing a visa free travel regime with has focused on the need for Ukraine to improve Russia in 2010, Poland insisted that the EaP its practical short term relations with the countries should be treated equally. European Union - while referring to Treaty Article 49 as a long-term factor. Such pragmatic Among EU member states, Poland has the priorities include finalising the EU-Ukraine talks largest consular network in Ukraine (six general on the Association Agreement and free trade, visa consulates) and in Belarus (three). The latest free travel and increased EU aid. was opened in April 2011 in Sevastopol, becoming the first consulate of an EU country Poland’s relations with Belarus’ authoritarian in Crimea. Meanwhile, the Polish consulate in regime are limited and Warsaw’s leverage on is the largest in Ukraine; it issued a record Belarus is miniscule. Poland has used the EU to number of 300,000 visas last year. POLICY BRIEF - Nº 91 - AUGUST 2011

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Baltic States and Ukraine, to support President In 2011, Poland, along with the Czech Republic Saakashvili during the Russian-Georgian war. and Slovakia, abolished national visa fees for Under new president Komorowski, Poland’s Belarusians in order to support civil society. policy towards Georgia has changed in style, Warsaw argues that similar steps should be taken but not in essential substance. Warsaw supports at the EU level, along with increased EU support Georgia’s integration into the EU and NATO, to civil society in Belarus. In the case of Ukraine, but relations with Tbilisi are now not built at fees for national visas have been lowered from €35 the expense of those with Russia, Germany or to €20. France.

Armenia has been the least important state for MOLDOVA AND THE SOUTH Poland, due to Yerevan’s orientation towards CAUCASUS Russia and its lack of a strong EU ambition. Armenia was the last EaP country where Moldova and the South Caucasus countries Poland opened an embassy. have played a secondary role in Poland’s Eastern policy, since they are not Poland’s Since 2009, Poland’s relations with the South immediate neighbours. Poland’s interest in the Caucasus and Moldova have been increasingly region increased following its EU accession. In driven by the EaP and are likely to intensify 2003, Moldova was included in Poland’s due to Poland’s leadership in this policy. In strategy on the Eastern dimension as a country March 2010, President Tusk visited all three that should have a prospect of accession. South Caucasus countries in the first official Poland has also consistently brought the EU’s visit of a Polish prime minister. In July 2011, attention to the problem of Transnistria, a when Poland assumed its EU presidency, separatist region of Moldova. Bilateral contacts President Komorowski made a six-day visit to with Chisinau have grown since 2009 when the the South Caucasus to promote the EaP and Polish government supported the democratic bilateral contacts with all three countries. change in Moldova as the Alliance for European Integration gained power. Moldova’s importance for Poland is growing since the country is a current ‘success story’ in In the South Caucasus, Poland has been more the EaP, which is otherwise somewhat short of focused on Georgia and Azerbaijan. This region achievements given the background of is important for Poland’s energy security. democracy backsliding in the region. In March Georgian and Azerbaijani energy companies are 2011, the Polish prime minister made an part of the ‘Sarmatia’ consortium along with official visit to Moldova for the first time to Polish, Lithuanian and Ukrainian companies. participate in the EU-Moldova Forum financed The consortium has a long-outstanding (and by the Polish government. somewhat moribund) plan to build a continuation of the -Brody pipeline to CONCLUSIONS the Polish city of Plock to transport Caspian oil to Europe. Poland’s concern has increased that Poland’s interest in the Eastern neighbourhood the South Caucasus is prone to conflicts and is long-term and strategic. Poland aspires to the insecurity. During the Russia-Georgia war in democratisation of Eastern European countries 2008, it was feared that Russia’s Georgian and their integration into European structures. strategy would be a direct threat to Poland. These goals are rooted in Polish history, while Poland’s relations with Georgia were very close Poland benefits from its membership in the during the presidency of Lech Kaczyński. He EU and NATO to promote their cause at a travelled to Tbilisi, along with leaders from the European level. >>>>>> IS POLAND STILL COMMITTED TO THE EASTERN NEIGHBOURHOOD?

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>>>>>> Contrary to many fears expressed in the last the Eastern neighbourhood. In fact, Poland’s two years, the ‘reset’ with Russia has not increasing engagement in the East and ‘reset’ diminished Poland’s commitment to the with Russia go hand in hand: as Poland has Eastern neighbourhood. Poland continues to become a less abrasive EU partner, ‘old’ support Ukraine’s and other Eastern European member state antipathy towards its designs in countries’ accession to the EU. However, in the the eastern neighbourhood have diminished. absence of EU-wide support, it focuses on the short-term measures of the EU agenda with these countries, such as advancing with free Natalia Shapovalova is researcher at FRIDE trade, visa free travel and enhanced funding for civil society. Bilaterally, Poland is increasing its Tomasz Kapuśniak is assistant professor at the aid to the Eastern neighbours and working to Institute of East-Central Europe in Lublin increase people-to-people contacts. Warsaw is and lecturer at the John Paul II Catholic boosting its engagement with Moldova and the University of Lublin. three South Caucasus countries as their commitment to reform is crucial for the success of the Eastern Partnership.

The example of Poland’s recent foreign policy evolution shows that keeping good relations with Russia does not necessarily entail less e-mail: [email protected] engagement with or support for the www.fride.org democratisation and European integration of