PUBLICATION Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

PAKISTAN DR. BABAK KHALATBARI Parliamentary elections 2008

AUTHORS DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING Democracy in Pakistan on the ad- vance? June 2008 www.kas.de/pakistan In the history of Pakistan, there were few against terrorism that had also affected Pa- www.kas.de events, like the elections of the 18th kistan in the recent past. However, at the February 2008, which offered the political latest since March, 2007 there emerged new elites of the country a real chance to start heroes: Firstly, in the person of Chief Justi- anew in the politics. In the retrospective ce of Pakistan, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudh- view of the events before the elections ry, who was sacked and turned out of his and - as their logical consequence - the office by Musharraf, but he was reinstated elections caused a downright euphoria to his post under the guidance of his coun- over the "dawn of a democratic new be- ginning" among the population and in the sel and prominent PPP-member of the parli- media, the question strikes one’s mind ament Aitzaz Ahsan, lawyers’ community of whether in all that the essential pre- the land and civil society and secondly, in requisites for a political change were al- the leading politician of the PPP and PML (N) ready created. who returned to power in February, 2008. It was forgotten that many of the bearers of In the first instance the dramatic defeat of new hopes had distinguished themselves in the ruling parties: PML-Q, MQM and MMA in the past in both political camps, more by the elections generated expectations, which misuse of their offices and shameless cor- shall barely be satisfied in view of the per- ruption than through qualities of states- sonality profiles of the new rulers and the manship. situation of Pakistan in multi-layered crises. Here the election losers, including the Presi- The deal that was mediated by Americans dent and ex-General Pervez Musharraf, pin- between and Pervez Mushar- ned their hopes to a failure of their victori- raf is pushed aside for the time being, but ous opponents. not forgotten, as was expressed on 6th Oc- tober, 2007 in the Presidential Order under The military dictator was defeated. Politici- the caption: “National Reconciliation Ordi- ans, columnists and the majority of the Pa- nance (NRO) - 2007.” Gist of the NRO is kistanis rejoiced on his defeat. The eight- setting aside all court proceedings, which year-old regime of Musharraf was condem- had been initiated during the time period ned in the comments and group discussions between 1985 and 12th October, 1999 (the on media and an immediate resignation / day of seizure of ruling power by Musharraf) retirement of the President was demanded. for political reasons. Beneficiaries of the This had stunned the political leadership decree were above all politicians standing created by Musharraf. Nevertheless, they under the suspicion of massive corruption, had approval of the majority of the people like Benazir Bhutto, her husband Asif Ali till the beginning of 2007. Moreover, for the Zardari, the brothers Nawaz and Shahbaz international community the President of Sharif as well as other party leaders of the Pakistan was the main bulwark in the war

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. PPP, PML (N) and MQM. In return for this still controversial Operation Silence started lump-sum acquittal from the corruption in July, 2007 at the centre of the capital ci- PAKISTAN charges, the above named parties were ex- ty of Islamabad followed by the persistent DR. BABAK KHALATBARI pected not to oppose a re-election of Gene- crisis of judiciary, existing till this day, the ral Musharraf to the office of president. suppression of the extremist Madrassa stu- AUTHORS dents entrenched in the red mosque (Lal DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING However, legitimising of the NRO by the Masjid) through military action, which left Supreme Court is still outstanding. The NRO behind more than 100 people dead. The Ji- June 2008 made possible the unobstructed return of hadi organizations took this action to the the politicians to Pakistan, who had fled into occasion, in particular the Pakistani Taliban, foreign countries for fear of prosecution. to provoke a series of suicidal attempts and Their return into the routine politics in Pa- attacks with car bombs which continue till kistan awakened general hope among the this day and have claimed several hundred people for better times. And that was deaths among the security forces and the comprehensible, since a flood of undemoc- civil population. ratic events poured forth during the year 2007 over the population in the political life After a little while, in August, the Supreme of the country, accompanied by incising Court ordered reinstatement of the Chief economic problems on one hand. On the Justice Iftikhar and quite subsequently af- other hand, the possibility was opened to terwards a judgment was prepared under focus the strength of once hostile parties on his presidency which was supposed to dec- a politics of the national consensus in coali- lare a renewed candidature of Musharraf for tions on national and provincial level until the office of President as unconstitutional. now and that to revive the criminalised and Musharraf saw the only way out from this incapacitated civil society under Musharraf threatening situation to use his full authori- and to tie them into the democratic process. ty accumulated in eight years by imposition That necessitates a common, clear formula- of the state of emergency on the 3rd of No- tion of the national interests and establis- vember, 2007. Precisely 42 days later, he hing a political atmosphere that guarantees had to surrender and feel constrained to economic and social upswing as well as the take off his uniform and hand over exerci- consolidation of the political unity and sove- sed function of the army chief (Chief of Ar- reignty of the country. my Staff) to his successor general Kiyani and continue his personal union with the In this complex situation Pakistan expects presidential office. political moral as well as economic support of the international community, indeed, The sentiments and resentment directed without interference in its internal affairs. against Musharraf in the land further inten- sified. The Chairperson of the Pakistan Peo- 1. The Paradigm of 2007 ples’ Party (PPP) and former Prime Ministers

As army chief and president, General Mus- Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan after harraf removed the senior most judge of several years in exile and she was murde- the country: Chief Justice Iftikhar Muham- red after an election rally in Rawalpindi on .1 mad Chaudhry from his office on 9th March, 27th December 2007 through an unconstitutional act.

Against this unlawful step of the President an avalanche of the civil, social and democ- ratic counteractions was unleashed, which 1 See Zaib Nisa and Babak Khalatbari, 2008 brought the General almost a year later to Parliamentary Election - Pakistan at the the end of his political way and power. The crossroads, www.kas.de/Pakistan

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. More than seven years after General Pervez national self-confidence of Pakistan, so that Musharraf had captured power in Pakistan many people were ascertained as disap- PAKISTAN through a coup in October 1999, his policy pointed in the approach of the elections. DR. BABAK KHALATBARI demanded restitution of domestic discussi- The only certainty in the land exists nowa- ons which could exert influence on parties days is the uncertainty. They accused the AUTHORS in the coalition government in view of Musharraf Regime of by passing the parlia- DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING forthcoming parliamentary elections in the ment, in giving up a major part of national

end of 2007. The elections were postponed sovereignty in the war against terror and June 2008 till 18th February, 2008 after the murder of just to have it neglected under the pretext Benazir Bhutto. If he had been able to con- of handling in the national interest. tinue to present himself, as he did in the The differences between four provinces of beginning, to be relatively plausible as a Pakistan could not be resolved in a democ- popular alternative to the previous corrupt ratic way. The military action against the civil governments, but he had soon exposed head of family and former governor of Ba- himself after the parliamentary elections of luchistan, Nawab Bugti, and, in the end, his October, 2002 by issuing numerous presi- liquidation endangered the federal state dential decrees and manipulated constituti- system of Pakistan just as the operational on for his / insatiable lust for power. engagement of the army in the South of the The events of the year 2007, like natural North Western Frontier Province without disasters (floods in the province ), agreement of the provincial government. At strikes against sensational shortages of the same time Musharraf intensified the de- food and fuels and the unpopular measures cades old dispute between Punjab and taken by the Government like operational Sindh on their share in the water resources engagement of approximately 70.000 sol- because of his mega project of a dam. The diers in the "War Against Terror" in Tribal best example is that of the Kalabagh dam, Areas, the action against the extremists in which has been conceived for 20 years and the Red Mosque, the deposition of "unplea- which is politically used as an instrument sant" judges and also the gagging of the over and over again in this or that direction media led step by step to the accountabili- by interested forces. Therefore, the new ty of the politics of the President by the government has decided to put this project people on the basis of those seven promi- in cold storage for the time being, though it ses, which he had made at the beginning of is economically very necessary and urgent his taking over the power.2 for producing energy resources and preser- vation of water. Explanations to indicate the immense prob- lems with negative developments with The delayed and still outstanding formulati- which the new government feels confronted on of a method that could be acceptable to are given as follows: all for the division of national finances among the provinces provided additional The impairment of democratic institutions, dynamite. the permanent threat of a pure military rule and, in the end, the suspension of the Musharraf’s promise to introduce a law that constitution on 3rd November, 2007 and provides larger autonomy to the provinces imposition as well as exercising of an order also got into official oblivion. Individual of emergency have severely damaged the commentators compare the mood of the people in Balochistan with that of the Ben- galis in former East Pakistan (now Bangla- 2 See Adnan Rehmat, The news on Sunday, desh) before their separation and detach- Islamabad, 26.08.2007, p32. ment from Pakistan. So it is left to the new

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. government to counteract against the se- The question is also still open what has cessionist with centrifugal strengths at least happened to many persons who have been PAKISTAN and to consolidate the federation of the sta- partially reported "disappeared" for several DR. BABAK KHALATBARI te on democratic basis. years and who bears the responsibly for these breaches of law. When the Supreme AUTHORS The promise to accelerate the economic- Court took up suo moto notice of some of DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING development and to win the trust of inves- these cases the President intervened and tors initially seemed realizable. Since the desired to take action against the judges June 2008 year 2002, record-exports were achieved, and gagged the judiciary and finally put the some areas recorded a considerable influx constitution aside. of foreign direct-investments (FDI) and the foreign exchange-reserves grew. That The claim of the President to "depoliticize" enabled annual growth rates of the gross- the national, state institutions looked like a domestic-product to over 6%. However, he- farce. As an army chief he led cabinet mee- re the experience confirmed that growth tings and conferences of the executive rates per se don't improve the economic committee of "his" government party PML situation of the population automatically. (Q). Even he has not got yet the members- Exactly, as a consequence soon before the hip of this party. As a President he led con- elections, the people suffered a prolonged ferences of the corps commanders. Under rate of high inflation. Energy shortages and striking breach of guidelines for promotions food prices were rising excessively, and in the civil service Musharraf promoted mo- there were artificially generated narrow re than 1,000 officers to higher and the passes for basic care and necessary food. highest state offices up to ambassadorial Simultaneously, members of the transition and ministerial posts. Even the prime minis- government and possessor of more supre- ter is surrounded by nine officers who exer- me parliamentary offices entrenched them- cise the most important functions in his selves with unbelievable privileges for life- staff. This moved an annotator to the say- time. Growing poverty came in to the light, ing: “States dispose of armies, but in Pakis- unexplained scandals of stock exchanges tan the army disposes of the state ". and corrupt methods of denationalization as The concept of decentralization, on which well as ascending inner and outer indebted- Musharraf put great stress at the time of ness of Pakistan faded the shine of the pro- taking over power, soon turned out to be pagated economic miracle. an attempt for the creation of new loyalties Law and order as well as prompt administ- and was used as an instrument for the ma- ration of justice increasingly came under nipulation of elections. In the political prac- strong public criticism. Started with the tice, the motto was called all power to the murder attempts against Musharraf, a row president. of the suicide attempts in which more than Comprehensive account was paid to Mus- 500 persons fell victim in five years, a harraf’s seventh promise which he had ma- bloodbath in under the eyes and de to the people. In addition he created a even by co-operation of the law guardians, special authority, the National Accountabili- the controversial deployment of the army in ty Bureau, with its branches in every pro- the tribal areas and adjoining districts as vince and naturally with several Generals in well as against the students of the red the executive positions. However, this es- mosque in the capital of Islamabad and fi- tablishment stood by no means in the ser- nally the murder of Benazir Bhutto do not vice of the pursuit against corruption and present to the people a positive balance of abuse of power. Rather it was used to re- the rule of President General Musharraf. primand politicians in the opposition or to

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. blackmail them into changing their loyalties "Bhutto bonus". Besides, the events in Pa- in favour of the presidential camp. It was kistan caused the increased international PAKISTAN also used to keep politicians like Benazir attention from which massive electoral for- DR. BABAK KHALATBARI Bhutto, Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif, out of geries would not escape. Insecurity spread the country under the threat of long impri- out and caused a high degree of the self- AUTHORS sonment. censorship of the media. DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING Thus it does not astonish any one that 2007 The EU electoral observer's mission also June 2008 became a year of growing civil opposition found out in their interim report of the 20th against the dominance of the society and February that the former ruling parties the state by the military like some people would be divided in the electoral campaign. would mean it too hopeful for a beginning On the basis of the Order of Emergency se- of the end of the dominance of the military veral thousand persons were arrested and in Pakistan. The "no" of the Chief Justice in fundamental rights were suspended. The March, 2007 who refused to put down his trust in the independence of the Election signature on the resignation paper prepared Commission (EC) was low and there was a by the President started the political des- charge that several million voters were not cent of General Pervez Musharraf until final- included in the electoral lists. Many women ly on mounting public pressure he had to and many a rural poor were not in a positi- give up the office as the army chief on 29th on to cast their vote because no identity November. Indeed, he can still be chosen cards had been issued to them. The district as President for another five years by the administration as well as the local police outgoing parliament favouring him . Howe- authorities had often taken part in the elec- ver, the plan to give an election victory to tion campaign at the risk of using state his "king's party" of corrupt and opportu- means in favour of former government par- nistic politicians was no more realizable. ty PML-Q.3 Indeed, the former Prime Ministers Benazir The media of Pakistan that have been rela- Bhutto and , after returning tively free since 2002, was put under from exile were severely hindered in the restrictive state interventions during the election campaign, or were excluded from a period before elections, so that an at- candidature for the parliament, however, mosphere of juridical insecurity could they have been able to use the sentiments spread out and cause a high degree of self- of the masses directed against Musharraf in censorship by the media themselves. favour of their parties. The announcement of emergency order on 3rd November, the In the government camp one could assume lawyers’ protest movement against gagging from the fact that the present government of judiciary and the murder of Benazir parties of (PML-Q), Bhutto accelerated the power decay of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and President. Ostensibly, well planned electoral Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) together manipulations were put in place for the par- with the representatives of the Federally liamentary elections set at first on 8th Ja- Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) would nuary that the Pakistan Muslim League - Q gain the election victory and choose Pervaiz and the President firmly believed in their Elahi (PML-Q), the sitting chief minister of election victory. The postponement of elec- the Punjab province as the future prime mi- tions to 18th February renewed the or- chestration of their electoral preparation for 3 European union Election surveillance mis- the later election winners and thwarted the sion Pakistan 2008, Preliminary Statement, plan of the President who had hoped with Islamabads, 20 Februarys 2008, p.1ff. the temporal movement for fading away the

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. nister. Indeed, President and his men could not registered in the electoral lists or were not shape and develop the last phase of the located in remote areas of the constituen- PAKISTAN election campaign as originally intended. cies from where they could not cast their DR. BABAK KHALATBARI General Kiyani had pulled out the military votes. Intelligence Service (MI) from the electoral AUTHORS According to article 51 (1) of the Constituti- events and the officers of the armed forces DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING on of Pakistan the lower house of the parli- were prohibited to establish contact with ament (National Assembly) has 342 seats. politicians by threat of disciplinary action June 2008 272 MNA (Members of National Assembly) and punishments. Besides, he assured that are chosen directly, 60 seats are reserved the army will play no role at the polling pla- for women and 10 seats are reserved for ces, but protect them only from the outsi- the members of religious minorities. Simi- de. larly, along with the election of the National The opposition, consisting of the party of Assembly, 728 representatives of the pro- Benazir Bhutto: Pakistan People's Party vincial parliaments are also chosen (They (PPP), the party controlled by former Prime are: Punjab 371, Sindh 159, Baluchistan Minister Nawaz Sharif: Pakistan Muslim 65, and North Western Frontier Province League Nawaz (PML N) and the Pakhtoon 117). Nationalistic (ANP) In view of negatively evaluated ruling years were not satisfied on electoral arrange- of President Musharraf and his so-called ments and the PPP was counted as the king's party, the PML-Q, as explained abo- strongest challenger against the PML-Q. ve, the victory of Pakistan People's party Jamat-e-Islami (JI), the second-strongest (PPP) of assassinated former Prime Minister party in the MMA alliance of religious par- Benazir Bhutto in the elections did not co- ties, nationalistic parties in Baluchistan as me as a surprise. The party received 30.6% well as different other small parties boycot- of all votes and 120 seats in the National ted the elections. Assembly. Pakistan Muslim league - Nawaz

2. Running of Election, Election Results (PML N) of ex-premier Nawaz Sharif won 90 and Formation of Government seats with 19.6% percent of votes. Clear loser of these elections was PML (Q). They On 18th February 2008 approximately 81 got only 51 seats in the National Assembly, million people went to poll. A low election- although they got 23% of total votes more participation was expected broadly in view than the PML(N) whose candidates had won of a wave of suicidal assassinations and in more constituencies. In the four provin- bomb-attacks in the previous months. In- ces the PML-Q could win only 121 out of a deed, there were 25 persons dead in parti- total 704 seats. With a total of 188 parlia- ally armed confrontations between adversa- ment seats reserved for women the election ries in the area of the election-booths. After Commission confirmed 482 nominees, 150 restrained influx in the morning hours, the for the National Assembly and 332 for the participation in election increased in the af- Provincial Assemblies. About half of all ap- ternoon, as it was later revealed that these plications had been rejected. were the heavily participative elections on record. However, from technical point of Although, all the parties greeted the admi- view, the course of election events were nistration of justice to guarantee 33% re- without substantial complaints only in the presentation of women in the parliament, it urban constituencies. There were cases of was made clear in the election of women election manipulation and women in rural representatives that the decision making constituencies felt hindered in casting their committees of the parties are really male- vote. About 10 million voters were either dominated affair and only a few women

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. could create the breakthrough to the point. in the national-assembly and 30 seats in In the National Assembly the seats reserved the provincial assemblies. These elections PAKISTAN for women were allotted to the parties as were planned to be held on 26th June 2008. DR. BABAK KHALATBARI follows: On this occasion, PPP and PML(N) continued their collaboration and supportted the can- AUTHORS PPP 23, PML (N) 17, PML-Q 10, MQM 5, ANP didates among both parties with the best DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING 3, JUI- F 1, PML-F 1. Seats of the minorities chance of victory .Therefore, the PPP amount to the representation of the first withdrew their candidates from two consti- June 2008 four parties in the same sequence, i.e., 4, tuencies in , a domain of the PML N, 3, 2 and 1. Deaths, resignations and other while latter did the same in Larkana, a tra- reasons necessitated by-elections to 8 seats ditional home constituency of the Bhuttos.

Table of party representation in the assemblies (as of 29.5.2008)

ANP BNP-A Ind MMA MQM NPP PML PML-F PML-N PPPP PPP-S Total

13 1 18 7 25 1 54 5 91 123 1 339

NWFP Assembly

ANP Ind MMA PML PML-N PPPP PPP-S Total

46 9 14 6 9 30 7 121

Punjab Assembly

Ind MMA PML PML-F PML-N PPPP Total

2 2 36 4 164 106 364

Sindh Assembly

ANP MQM NPP PML PML-F PPPP Total

2 51 3 9 9 90 164

Baluchistan Assembly

ANP BNP-A Ind MMA NP PML PPPP Total

4 7 10 10 1 20 11 63

The political atmosphere and fundamental effective than the elections in the democra- change in the post election hopes of the tic periods of the country. Previously, both people increased after the announcement parties had engaged among themselves, that once the arch rival parties PPP and the mostly adversely, all along. Even the period PML-N are to form a coalition and want to of Musharraf-rule had brought no real poli- give the country a new and stable govern- tical reproach between Benazir Bhutto and ment. This announcement was indeed more Nawaz Sharif both of whom were living in

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. exile. Now, PPP and PML-N seemed willing province of Sindh. Every prediction about to lay the foundations of a new common the future of this coalition denotes many PAKISTAN democratic culture. question marks. DR. BABAK KHALATBARI The new strong men are Benazir Bhutto’s In the Punjab, the most important province

AUTHORS widower (PPP) and Nawaz of the country, the PML (N) gained the ma- DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING Sharif (PML-N), who had been denied parti- jority and formed a coalition with the PPP in cipation in the elections on the basis of the government. Head of the government is June 2008 formal reservations existing against them Sardar Dost Muhammad Khan Khosa. Ac- even today. Now these both party leaders cording to a general consensus, it is an in- negotiated the formation of national go- terim solution, till Shahbaz Sharif gets elec- vernments in the centre and provinces un- ted in the by-elections, Khosa would be der them. Being the majority party, the PPP replaced. Shahbaz Sharif won in the provin- nominated Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, former cial parliament without rival candidates and President (Speaker) of the National As- was chosen by 265 out of 371 representati- sembly, as the new head of the govern- ves as the Chief Minister on the 8th June as ment. Majority of the ministries went to 21st. Chief minister of the Punjab and took representatives of the PPP and PML N. Soon the office on oath after the resignation of afterwards, the latter had withdrawn its mi- preceding chief minister Khosa. nisters from the central government, due to The pitiful performance of the "Mullah par- differences of opinion on the question of ties" united in the MMA was registered with reinstatement of the judges dismissed by relief in the whole area of the North West Musharraf. Nevertheless, the PPP ministers Frontier Province (NWFP). The party allian- remained in the government of the province ce of six Islamic parties ruling there before Punjab, so that one cannot speak of a the elections saw their defeat – their seats complete break up of the coalition. MQM, declined from 45 to 5. Consequently, they ANP and the JUI-F of Maulana Fazlur Reh- had to sit in the opposition. The winner be- man, a man for all seasons, belong to the came the secular ANP which now had the government camp. In addition, Dr. FAHMI- responsibility of forming a government in a DA MIRZA (PPP), a relative of Asif Zardari, coalition with the PPP and has nominated was chosen as the Speaker of the national Amir Haider Khan Hoti as the Chief Minister. assembly. Opposition leader is Chaudhry The fact that in an attack on the 25th April Pervaiz Elahi, (PML-Q) who had hoped for in Hoti’s hometown Mardan, four people the office of the prime minister before the were killed and a police station destroyed, elections. indicates that NWFP would be more restive In Sindh, the home province of Bhuttos, the a place than before. PPP was the expected winner in the electi- In Baluchistan, where some of the regional, ons. The Chief Minister belongs to the PPP. nationalistic parties had committed the He has formed a coalition together with the mistake to boycott the elections, the PML-Q present government party of the province, returned as the strongest party with an ap- the MQM of Altaf Hussain who is residing in parent victory in the elections. However, exile in London. The credit for all this goes they are denied to form a government. The to Asif Zardari who, in spite of serious diffe- PPP succeeded in winning the independent rences, got the MQM on board. The questi- mandate-bearers as well as so-called for- on, whether and how long this difficult poli- ward blocks of the PML-Q and the religious tical marriage can remain intact, is of pri- party JUI-F and installed a PPP led provinci- mary importance for the peace in the eco- al government on this basis. Obviously, nomic metropolis of Karachi and the whole they did not want to leave the strategically

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. important province to the rulers of yester- doesn't join the opposition but will continue day. supporting the government. However, Na- PAKISTAN waz Sharif already appealed a day later to The opinion of competent observers is divi- DR. BABAK KHALATBARI his supporters to exert pressure on the go- ded over the duration and success of the vernment through street rallies. The stand AUTHORS new alliance of PPP and PML-N. All recogni- of Zardari shows mostly his fear that if Chief DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING ze the economically difficult situation and Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry is the considerable problems in the way of re- reinstated to his past position, he could un- June 2008 forms and see the emergence of such a do the NRO and bring him in the courts to successful force that can keep the alliance face charges registered earlier against him. together or can also split it. Also the opini- on is varied about the two main-winners of Thousands of lawyers and activists of the the election, the PPP as middle left and the civil society undertook a long march from PML-N as conservative party, which are al- 10th to 14th June starting from provincial ready in the situation to stand against each capital cities to Islamabad in order to inc- other as rivals. Consequently, only a few rease the pressure on demands for the observers believe that the duration of alli- restoration of the judges. Nawaz Sharif ance and the PPP- led coalition government shortened his stay in London in order to will survive for more than two years in the addresses in Lahore and Islamabad to the centre, where the PML –N still supports the demonstrators and to take part in the conc- coalition. luding phase of the long march, which was also joined by the union of the former sol- 3. Political Priorities of the New Go- diers that included many retired generals, vernment prominent ex-diplomats and organizations In four months after the elections the PPP – of civil society. led coalition government could not succeed In this respect the solution of the judges’ in meeting the main demand of the " question will be the first touchstone for the Declaration"4 of 9th March. Shortly after new government. Even after several rounds their election victory, Nawaz Sharif and Asif of talks the PML N negotiators firmly stand Zardari had agreed that the judges removed on their demand for reinstatement of the by President Musharraf from their posts will deposed judges and the dismissal of their be reinstated within one month, therefore successors enrolled by Musharraf, while the they will go again in their office by the be- PPP leadership aims at a basic reform of the ginning of April and determine the fate of justice system. Within the scope of this plan the judges enrolled in the meantime. the old ones as well as the new judges After Zardari applied for further extension in should be in office through a legislative so- the date of ultimatum, above all on the ba- lution.“5 A Constitutional Package” was sis of fickle stand without accomplishing compiled by the PPP leadership and pre- demand of Murree – agreements, all PML-N sented to the PML N for discussion. All other ministers in the central-government step- parties could get it even now onwards only ped down from their offices on 13th May, through the press for the sake of their in- Officially, it was communicated that PML-N formation. It is highly controversial, becau- se 80 out of 93 articles existing in the pa-

4 Murree is a mountaineous-resort, approxima- tely at a distance of one hour from Islamabad, 5 Zardari wants to find such a possible distance the coalition-negotiations took place in this iso- from Musharraf, the Presidential office through lated part. the judges.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. ckage can get no consensus at the present force of their movement as against other moment. The reproach for all this matter political controversies. On the way from La- PAKISTAN placed on Asif Ali Zardari also becomes hore to Islamabad the participants of the DR. BABAK KHALATBARI explicable that he indeed wants to formally long march chanted slogans not only strengthen the de facto role of the parlia- against President Musharraf, but they also AUTHORS ment. However, the main aim of this parli- shouted separate slogans against Asif Zar- DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING amentary procedure shifts solutions of all dari.

upcoming political and constitutional cum June 2008 The third touchstone for the government juridical questions to an indefinite time. In- will be a new policy about war against terro- terestingly, a lawyers’ committee of the rism. In their statements before the electi- PML-Q also works on “Counter Package". ons, the PPP, like PML N attached priorities In the meantime, the government is looking to talks and negotiations with the insur- for a way out about the budget for the fi- gents in FATA (Federally Administered Tribal nancial year 2007-2008, while it has inclu- Areas) and NWFP. The government of Gilani ded in the budget salaries for 29 judges of explained their desire after the assumption the Supreme Court instead of 16 that have of office to check the counter terrorism poli- been up to now on roll. Also the salaries cy of the land. The consent of Islamabad to should be paid retrospectively from 3rd No- agree on reintroduction of the Islamic law of vember, 2007 onwards. The parliament de- Sharia in the Malakand division of the NWFP bate that started on 14th June will take up from the middle of June onwards as per this point indeed, particularly as the partici- commitment of 1999 must be seen as the pants of the long march wanted to camp first result of this test. A suitable arrange- before the parliament at that time. ment was negotiated on 13th May between the NWFP government and the Pakistani Ta- Narrowly linked with the above question is liban of the Swat valley. Then one day later the destiny of the President that stands also an arrangement was agreed upon in Wazi- in the debate. While Nawaz Sharif aims at ristan between the army and the Taliban for his removal from the office, the PPP seemed an exchange of prisoners. For safekeeping ready to come to an arrangement with the army more than 30 Taliban were re- Musharraf by reducing his powers. Ne- leased in the exchange of 5 soldiers of the vertheless, at the beginning of June the PPP army and 7 members of the Frontier Corps. leadership felt likewise constrained to swing Islamabad and the army headquarters to a stronger anti Musharraf position. Zar- (GHQ) in Rawalpindi signaled readiness to dari threatened, if the President does not give extensive concessions to the insurgents resign from his office up to 10th of June, in FATA and in the Swat valley. Even the the parties in coalition government will initi- previous non-acceptance of a training- ate a dismissal procedure against him in the program for army and Frontier Corps that parliament. This spreads as a "tactically" was proposed by Washington for the war useful step, nevertheless, it came too late against terrorism, is seen as such. Islama- to appease the lawyers for “putting off” bad and Rawalpindi are obviously trying to their long march.6 Here it added to the pour no further oil into the fire and work for a calm and peace of the rebellious regions.

6 The procedure that Zardari can last some time is subordinated a delay-tactic. He is afraid among other things that the procedures put in liament for unconstitutionally explains and as part of the NRO negotiated with Musharraf from which the judges issue could be started against him because of corruption, money- again. laundring and tax-out of the reach of the par-

11

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Meanwhile, even the realization that direct the absence of Benazir Bhutto on the politi- negotiations with the militant forces are litt- cal stage. Admittedly, the appointment of PAKISTAN le meaningful, has been generally accepted Salman Taseer - a PPP – grandee – by Gila- DR. BABAK KHALATBARI by the government-side. They promise suc- ni as new governor of Punjab aims at deve- cess only if they are led by the leaders of loping position of the PPP in the province. AUTHORS tribes. Military operations of the NATO on However, he is facing now an extremely DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING Pakistani territory, last time on 10th of Ju- strong Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who

ne, in the tribal area of Mohmand Agency, will work on furthering the dominance of the June 2008 that left numerous deaths behind, makes it PML-N in this province. The new chief- difficult for the government to look at nego- minister has illustrated in his first pro- tiation-partners more reliably. So, the de- grammed speech that very much depends mand gains ground to develop a holistic ap- on him to keep the coalition intact. Finally, proach in the contact with the tribes and "to the example of India shows that coalition- thin out" the presence of American person- partners can hold together even with basic nel in Pakistan and create a distance from differences of opinion. Shahbaz Sharif said the Americans to attain the support of the that he will strengthen the coalition, work tribes in the war against the terrorists by a together closely with the central- "plausible, national effort".7 government and undertake nothing, which could destabilise it. However, in the matters pertaining to war against terrorism altogether Zardari & Co. Past history of Pakistan has shown whoever stand by American ideas and demands reigns in Punjab has also the last word in much closer than Nawaz Sharif and his sup- Islamabad at the end. In the present situa- porters. Also this will have an effect on the tion, any serious conflict could possibly arise continuance of the government of Gilani. in the middle of the term. Over a longer So, Zardari and Gilani must resist anew the time period, it is also possible that the diffe- reproach in basic questions to follow the rent parliamentary fractions of the PML are dictation of the Americans. While Musharraf led together anew and achieve an absolute “had sold” more than 600 Pakistani majority in the parliament. suspects of terrorism to the Americans for The PPP sees itself in contrast exposed to many million dollars, the PPP-Government the dangers of an internal erosion. The situ- gets for complying with the USA interests a ation may not be threatening as long as "donation" of 750 millions U.S.$ coming for Zardari can hold the control over the party. development-projects in FATA, to which, However he is little popular among a majo- according to the statements of conservative rity of the old party stalwarts and even les- politicians, values and traditions would fall a ser popular in the heartland of Sindh. Ap- victim. pointment of Makhdoom Amin Fahim as Although Asif Zardari acts politically in a prime minister, who has a strong house po- much more skilful way, as one would have wer in Sindh, would have weakened Zarda- expected of him, he would not be able to ri’s position in this province. Still, the old prevent Nawaz Sharif from developing his veteran of the PPP holds together the party. chances for success with the charisma of However, many observers doubt that this incarnate resistance against Musharraf and will continue in the middle class as such. Being a born “Baloch” of low position, Zar-

dari is not regarded here as a born admi-

7 Shireen M. Mazari, Time to take completely. nistrator and his son Bilawal is not a true Threat of U.S, The News, 05.03.2008, S.6, heir of the Bhutto dynasty. On the other M.B. Naqvi, The inescapable dilemma, ibid. hand also only a few number of confidants

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. believes that the children of Benazir Bhut- The balance of trade essentially contributed to’s brother would follow the to the bad balance of payments, however, PAKISTAN foot steps of Benazir, although his daughter the imports rose by 28.3% to 321 billion $, DR. BABAK KHALATBARI Fatima is in the process of achieving it. The while the exports with an increase of 10.2% political stage is too embarrassed, and sup- produced savings of only $15.3 billion. The AUTHORS porters of dynastic traditions believe that balance of trade-deficit of $11 billion in- DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING the time will come for the younger nephew creased in the previous year and reached

of Benazir, Zulfikar. approximately to $ 17 billion in 2008. In June 2008 the same time period, the external indebt- 4. Economic Situation and Challenges edness increased by 13.3% from $ 40.5 bil-

In the economic area, the new government lion and became $ 45.9 billion.

has set for the goal to achieve “higher eco- The total-indebtedness of the state is nomic growth in stable macro-economic roughly increased with it and become about surroundings.”: Thereby the government is 55% of the Gross Domestic Product. The conscious that because of difficult inter and trend of the indicators of performance external conditions it is placed in an "unpre- makes it clear, which dangers threaten the cedented complex macro-economic situati- economic stability of Pakistan. And there is 8 on.” little prospect of a turn in the trend, be-

For finding the reason of this situation, at- cause essential factors like high prices of oil tempt is made to look for the blame in glo- and food as well as the deficits mentioned bal factors rather than finding it in the above will continue. Therefore, the govern- years-long, very lose finance and money ment has identified the following four chal- mixed policies, which according to the ex- lenges to the economy of the land to which perts, were the crucial internal cause for the it wants to dedicate its attention with prior- break-in of the economic growth,9 besides ity: Decline in the growth rates; increase in the growth rate driven by consumption. the inflation (in particular in food prices); increasing budget deficit as well as growing Many results of the fiscal year 2007-2008 deficits of the balance of trade and per- are assessed as "relatively well", although formance balances. Structural reforms in in most cases the planned goals were also export-intensive areas of the industrial not achieved. Accordingly, these numbers products were neglected during the past appear also on the negative-side of the years, and expansion in the energy bases economic-development. Subsequently pre- stayed far behind the requirements of the sented indicators should clarify the above industrial and private consumption, al- named trend:10 though projection up to 2025 is under con- sideration and suitable plans have been

worked out.

8 Finance-minister Syed Naveed Qamar in the foreword to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2007-2008, Islamabad, 10.06.08

9 For instance Meekal Aziz Ahmad, Thoughts on the budget, The News, 10.06.08, p6

10 All numbers are the Pakistan Economic Sur- vey 2007-2008, Islamabad 10.06.2008 taken and refers exclusively on the only 10 months of the fiscal year.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Indicators Results Plan Results PAKISTAN 2006-07 2007-08 2007-08 DR. BABAK KHALATBARI

GDP(BIP) 7.0% 7.2% 5.8% AUTHORS DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING Agriculture 3.7% 4.8% 1.5%

June 2008 Industrial products and mi- 8.6% 12.5% 4.8%

ning

Services 7.6% 8.2%

Investments 22.9% 23.3% 21.6%

Reserve assets 12.3 Bn.. Rs 15.6 Bn. .Rs.

State debits new total 544 Bn.. Rs.

% of GDP 946 Bn.. Rs. 9.0%

Financial deficits in % of GDP 4.3% 4.0% 6.5%

Inflation entire - foods 10.3% white flour 7.9% 15.0%

Edible Oil 10.2% 26.4% 53.3%

The result will be load shedding of 6 to 12 Some critics underline the continuous disre- hours everyday in the current year which gard of the poorer sections of the popula- will also cause restrictions in the commer- tion, while still others criticize missing sup- cial life and a falling industrial production port for the small and middle enterprises. A together with lesser job opportunities for basic weakness of the budget seems to lie the population. in the fact that it demonstrates no medium- term economic vision and developing strat- On 12th June the budget for the financial egy and also does not define the medium- year 2008-2009 presented in the parliament term macroeconomic frame. In this respect leaves little space to the ruling parties for the optimistic arrangement of the household taking popular measures on this basis. Whi- is convincing, nevertheless, about 50% of le representatives of the economy complain the inland revenue must go for service of that the budget does not offer enough as the debts, and an increase of the inland re- incentives for investments, other commen- venue to about 25% within one year is un- tators welcome the reinforced focus on agri- realistic par excellence. culture.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Besides, areas like the stock market and refore appropriate to address the reasons of real estates remain furthermore taxed too the Pakistani commitments in Afghanistan PAKISTAN lightly. Although the basic salaries are by the end of eighties after the withdrawal DR. BABAK KHALATBARI raised for employees of the central govern- of the Soviet troops. It was this primarily ment by 20% and other small concessions economic-strategic consideration that targe- AUTHORS are made, yet they have to face the crunch ted central-Asia and west-China in the same DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING due to partial withdrawal of subsidies for oil direction. In Central-Asia there are oil, gas,

products, fertilizers and food items. Another ores and cotton. Pakistan offers its technici- June 2008 upward trend in numerous prices is to be ans and merchants as helpers and partners. expected soon. Also the government has In addition, Islamabad sees the central- not made it clear in the budget where the Asian states as central-axis and heart of a announced prudence in the economy should new awakening of silk route with North- begin. However, it is foreseeable that this South and East-West corridors. Russia, Chi- will become effective rather in the social na, Iran and Kazakhstan are the driving area and not with the defence spending. In strengths and Pakistan an active player on spite of the above mentioned difficulties an this occasion. Moreover, Pakistani clerics increase of the gross domestic product is see a field of operation for awakening Islam aimed at about 5.5% to attain economic in Central-Asia. stability. There has been close relationships between Today Pakistan has approx. 160 million in- China and Pakistan since decades; Islama- habitants and this number increases by bad speaks of time tested friendship. The about 3.6 millions per year. With decreasing cooperation involved primarily military pro- productivity of the agriculture and insuffi- jects in the past. Now one will work to- cient increase of the expenditures for edu- gether also in future. Moreover, the coope- cation and health service show little ration is developed in the energy field. With prospects of reaching millennium goals till the visit of President Musharraf to China in 2012. Under this mounting pressure, the April 2008, an agreement was concluded view to develop the factor of regional eco- about the construction of atomic and coal- nomic cooperation and make it usable as a fired power stations. China will supply Pa- stabilizing element for economy and politics kistan six 300 MW nuclear power plants.12 is growing.11 Moreover, there has been increasing eco-

5. Strategic Interests nomic investments of Chinese companies in Pakistan in the recent past. 5.1. Afghanistan – Central Asia - China In the course of a forced development of

For the government in Islamabad, a reo- Western China, Peking looks for new ways rientation of the relationship with Afghanis- of transportation from and to that place. tan would be a problem to resolve. It is the-

12 That Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission 11 Good critical analyses by Aftab Ahmad Khan, (PAEC) plans the construction of a 1.2 billion State of the economy,: a realistic assessment, U.S. $ expensive Pakistan Nuclear Power Fuel The News, 09.06.2008, p.15; Zafar-ul-Hassan Complex, a chemical processing plans, a fuel Almas, Difficult macroeconomic environment fabrication plans, a nuclear fuel testing project for the budget, ibid; Meekal Aziz Ahmed, and should include a Seamless tube plans. For Thoughts on the budget, The News,10.06.08,p.6; it is striven, without foreign helps pressurised Abid Hassan, The budget -the good, the bad water reactors and nuclear gets things moving and the ugly, The News, 15.06.08, p.6. to be able to build plants

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Also here, Pakistan sees chances for herself. at the end of the visit of President Mushar- The big-project of building the new deep raf to China spoke of studying the feasibility PAKISTAN sea port at Gwadar in Baluchistan together for laying oil and gas pipeline along the DR. BABAK KHALATBARI by China and Pakistan stands as an example Highways and the Indus River. This shows for this. Pakistan offers to China as well as China and Pakistan obviously starting to AUTHORS to the Central Asian States the shortest rou- come off the Afghanistan option. It should DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING te to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea be attentively pursued whether such plans

and the Indian Ocean. The problem in this give Afghans a food for thought and can June 2008 matter is the route that passes across Af- lead to a relaxation of the relationship bet- ghanistan. A northern route would proceed ween Kabul and Islamabad. from Peshawar via Kabul, the Hindukush A second reason for Pakistan's commitment (Salang-Tunnel), Mazar-e-Sharif to Termez in the neighbouring country was its wishful and Tashkent in Uzbekistan. thinking about strategic depth. In the year The Southern route leads from Quetta ac- 1991 the then army-chief Mirza Aslam Beg ross Chaman, Kandahar and Herat to Ashk- introduced his project of strategic depth be- ha-bad in Turkmenistan. These routes have fore the students of the National Defence not been used because of the instability in College, the Military-University of Pakistan. Afghanistan and the political animosities He got roaring applause from the officers between both countries until now. Concrete present in this address. Pakistan fears to plans over the revival or the extension of have not sufficient strategic depth in a war these routes exists since the colonial-times. with India and looks for these in an alliance They include railroad-routes; the constructi- with Afghanistan. Here it becomes clear why on of new roads, the establishment of parti- pressure has been exerted by Pakistan since cular economic-zones and the opening of the withdrawal of the Soviet Army by the new flight-connections. Some of such links end of eighties for having a government in have been existing since long and some of Kabul dominated by Pashtuns. It is primarily them are partially in process. Moreover, expected that such a government will pacify there is Karakorum Highway which was the country and will be able to hold it to- constructed together by China and Pakistan gether. Moreover, it is believed that in doing from 1966 to 1986. It is a direct connection so Pakistan’s own plans will be realized mo- between both the countries, however would re easily. not be enough for future requirements. This General Beg’s ideas of strategic depth also 1300 km long road, passing through Kunje- included Iran. During his command of the rab Pass at 4877 meters high above the see army he made strenuous efforts to win level, is the highest mountain-road. Its abil- Iran’s cooperation in overcoming troubles. ity to provide an easy passage is restricted Beg was army-chief (COAS) from 1988 to and it can easily be blocked in case of con- 1991. The criticism today raised against him flict, therefore the previous interest of Paki- also relates to this period. It is said that he stan and China in the routes passing had paved the way for passing on nuclear- through Afghanistan comes to the fore. technology to Iran. Even today, if Pakistan However, realizing that the West and the being a nuclear power sees any possible USA will still continue to take the route pas- warlike confrontation with India, the desire sing through Afghanistan as used over for strategic depth is increased and with it years, China and Pakistan seriously are also cooperative relationship with Kabul. examining at present the feasibility of an For the rest Pakistan with its strategic inte- extension of the Karakorum Highway. rests doesn't stand alone with the neigh- Common declaration (communiqué) issued bouring countries. Hamid Karzai ignores the

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. action of other players if he complains about China seeks, as it is claimed, new ways for interference of Islamabad into the internal her imports and exports. In cooperation PAKISTAN matters of his country. The intents of the with Burma, in the eastern side and by DR. BABAK KHALATBARI USA are clear: Washington wants to isolate concluding agreement with Pakistan they Afghanistan from Iran, observes Pakistan at have created a western route for this pur- AUTHORS her western-border, and has its own access pose. Moreover, they are also looking for DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING to Central-Asia via Afghanistan, hindering new routes passing through Afghanistan.

Russian and Chinese interests in such an China strives to safeguard her economic and June 2008 access. This is one main-reason why Wa- strategic investments in Baluchistan and is shington is continuously pursuing the opera- trying hard to close Afghanistan and FATA tion “Enduring Freedom” even today. as retreat-area for the rebels.

Iran wants to break her isolation open and To Pakistan’s annoyance, India is success- strives for the departure of all American fully trying to obtain good relationships and troops from Afghanistan, Iraq and the entire cooperation with Afghanistan. India achie- Middle East. All possibilities are used in pur- ves the most effective economic aid and suit of these goals of Teheran to torpedo channelizes it in contrast to other donor- the plans of the USA. Therefore, she is still countries exclusively through the Afghan involved in Afghanistan in a concealed way. government. President Karzai studied in In- Turning away from her politics in the nine- dia and families of the leading personalities ties, when Iran supported Ahmed Shah Ma- of the former North-alliance are still living in sood against the Taliban, today Tehran deli- India in security. As a countermove to Pa- vers arms to the new Talibans, allows Al- kistan's commitment in Kashmir India con- Qaida Fighters the travels from and to Iraq sequently keeps its options of national secu- and also provides them shelter and places rity at Pakistan's western border open. Is- of rest. Moreover, Iran offers them her lamabad complains that the Indian consula- existing road and rail links, her pipelines te-general in Afghanistan would be steering and deep-water-harbours as transit-country Pakistan's problem in Baluchistan. Although for trade and in doing so she stands in di- substantial proof of this complaint is mis- rect competition with Pakistan. Moreover, sing, yet from the views of the psychological Iran is striving to exert her own cultural and warfare it is comprehensible. How Islama- economic influence on a government exten- bad works to blockade New Delhi in Afgha- sively formed by all ethnic groups in Kabul, nistan is very much clear from the refusal of keeps her influence intact on the neighbours Pakistan to allow India for using Pakistan and preferably extends it further. territory as transit route.

At present Russia has successfully tried to Finally, also Saudi Arabia still belongs to the win back her lost ground in Central-Asia and players in the Great Game in Afghanistan. push the Americans out of the region. These Riyadh together with Washington has finan- plans also include Americans’ withdrawal ced the war of the Mujahideen in the deca- from Afghanistan. Moscow plays her role in des of eighties and nineties, supported the Afghanistan openly as well as under cover. Taliban regime and acknowledged them Russian smugglers were probably the first, diplomatically. Her interests today are the who have been delivering new arms to the same, that is, Deobandi-Islam is supported militant groups in Afghanistan since 2002 in the neighbouring country like Pakistan. and in return they bring narcotic (drugs) via Riyadh condemns the Iranian influence in central-Asia on the way to Europe as a Afghanistan. Since the start of 2003, a part countermove. of tarnished personnel re-enforcement for

17

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Taliban and Al-Qaida was possible only via dian security-circles increasingly launch ar- Saudi Arabia. ticles into the newspapers of the country, PAKISTAN which warn of a naive politics against Pa- 5.2. Kashmir and India DR. BABAK KHALATBARI kistan. And M. K. Narayanan, national secu-

By going down into Pakistan's commitment rity-advisor in New Delhi, has determinedly AUTHORS in Kashmir it becomes clear that the year said in March 2008 that India sees no chan- DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING ges in the attitude of the ISI to support the 2003 was prerequisite for the start of the terror-groups like Lashkar-e-Tayabba and June 2008 composite dialogue with India. According to opinion of analysts in both countries, Mus- Jaish-e-Mohammed. It is assumed that at- harraf had reached the conviction that India tacks are probably continued against India would no longer give up her part of Kashmir from the territory of Pakistan. Although and solve the problem with military me- from the circles of the army leadership and thods. It is therefore worrying to reach a the government of Pakistan nothing points solution of the problem with new suggesti- to a change in the strategic adjustment of ons through negotiation, suggestions that the foreign affairs and security policy of the also contribute to cut the ground under the country, there might be no alternatives for feet of radical elements in Kashmir as well the new government in the Kashmir policy as in Pakistan. Since one feels in Islamabad pursued by Musharraf. In their electoral sta- impressed by the economic upswing of In- tements before the officers in the Ministry dia, it is emphasised to attach priority to a of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan almost all par- reinforced economic cooperation among all ties have suggested priority for a peaceful SAARC-Countries. and fair relation with India and have called this as a condition for an economic growth While living still in the exile, Benazir Bhutto of the region. Indeed, the PML (N) has had also represented this opinion. On the stressed on an improvement of the relation. basis of strong resistance in the Pakistani India must go ahead with another deepe- foreign ministry and in the Inter Services ning of the collaboration with time tested Intelligence (ISI) against separation of the friendship with China to make it truly stra- Kashmir issue from an economic cooperati- tegic. on with India had to be backed out. Howe- ver, it is to be assumed that the course of a 5.3. Pakistan and USA reinforced economic cooperation is also ac- Musharraf’s entry into the coalition against cepted in South-Asia by the new govern- the international terror and the connection ment. The remark to leave the solution of with the USA was a principal reason for the Kashmir issue to the later generations and loss of his backing and respect among the primarily concentrate on the support of tra- people. In Pakistan, there are strong anti de with India and other SAARC-Countries USA feelings. The US aid of more than 10 made by Asif Zardari only days after the Billion US $ that flowed in since 2002 in the elections has recognized it. He was severely country is overlooked or looked as insuffi- criticized by the nationalistic circles of the cient. Omission of the last years in the edu- Punjab and by the extremist groups in cational policy, in the health service and in Kashmir for this remark. They referred that the population policy is excused on the Pakistan's water comes from Kashmir and ground of missing support from the outside. Mohammed Ali Jinnah had also named Kashmir the carotid artery or jugular vein of The US financial assistances for an econo- Pakistan. And Majid Nizami, editor of the mic growth of the land is considered absolu- daily “The Nation”, in an interview in March tely necessary by the PPP and they desire 2008 didn't want to exclude possible use of continuation of the pro USA policy. This was nuclear-arms for liberation of Kashmir. In- one of the reasons, why Zardari, compared

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. with Nawaz Sharif, showed reservations in The USA and the IAEA want to ask A. Q. the statements about the political future of Khan today in detail about his nuclear PAKISTAN Musharraf after the elections. He is consci- shopping with Iran and North Korea. He DR. BABAK KHALATBARI ous about the urgency of financial support should tell them, whether and, if so, from from the USA where Musharraf is still seen where to the Pakistani nuclear know-how AUTHORS as inalienable ally of the anti-terror alliance. has been flown. Washington knows that Pa- DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING Today Pakistan stands worldwide at the kistan has received rocket parts from North

third place of US-Aid. For the next years Korea even in the autumn of 2002 and it is June 2008 other aid is promised in billions. The PML - asked what Islamabad might has paid in Nawaz believes in the possibility of an eco- return. nomic survival of Pakistan without American Moreover, in the western intelligence circles support , hence, they show little restraint in it is known that there have been rocket- attacks against Musharraf’. silos in Saudi Arabia since 1988. They were The PPP showed in their electoral state- initially equipped with Chinese medium- ments the war against the international ter- range-rockets (CSS-2). Today there is Al rorism as a war in Pakistan’s own interests. Sulaiyil with 100 km range in the North and The terrorist menace in the land was evalu- Al Jaffer with 500 km range in the South ated as a result of a dictatorial policy of from Riyadh bunkered underground with Musharraf which has manipulated the war installations of dozen of modern Pakistani against the terror and has refused to the long-range-rockets (Ghauri-II). The equip- people their democratic rights. However, ment of these rockets with conventional thinking over and reshaping the anti-terror warheads is off the point. Saudies have policy of the land will be demanded by the been trained also in Pakistan at nuclear- PML N. According to the opinion of PML N, research-places since middle of the nineties. ANP, MQM and other parties, future US In the year 1999 the Saudi Defence Minister support may not be linked any more with Prince Sultan visited the Kahuta Research the participation in the action against terro- Laboratories situated near Islamabad. In rism. November of the same year, Khan travelled to Saudi Arabia. During the Hajj season in

the years 2003, 2004 and 2005 Pakistani scientists flew camouflaged as pilgrims in a 5.4. Nuclear Circumstances Saudi Hercules-C130 to Riyadh. It was de- The question on future contact with Dr. Ab- termined that they vanished from their ho- dul Qadeer Khan, who is put under house tels to unknown places for up to 3 weeks. arrest since 2004, and still considered as Moreover, Saudis C-130 aeroplanes have "father of the Pakistani atom bomb”, the been observed flying with numerous ca- admired nuclear scientist, played a nones- mouflaged materials in Pakistan. Washing- sential role in the election campaign. Bena- ton and Vienna could get exact information zir Bhutto, while still living in exile, had ex- from Dr. A. Q. Khan about this and it is pressed that in case of taking over the Go- comprehensible that the Generals in Rawal- vernment they may permit possibility of pindi want to prevent that. questioning Khan by the USA as well as the Immediately after the elections on the 18th IAEA which is based in Vienna. This decla- February 2008 in Pakistan an unconditional ration pushed in a wasps' nest and there release of Dr. A. Q. Khans was demanded. are opinions in Pakistan that this single sta- PPPP, PML-N and ANP had also voiced their tement had sealed her destiny. In the elec- agreement on this issue in their election tion campaign she rowed back and weake- campaign. Nawaz Sharif even threw the ned her statements.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. suggestion into the debate to elect Khan as as possible in the office. Nevertheless, the the next President of the country. The possibility of his fall is on the way through a PAKISTAN newspapers of the country reported on ups dismissal procedure that becomes more and DR. BABAK KHALATBARI and downs in the health-condition of Dr. more likely. Khan in a very effective way. A few days AUTHORS A lot of foreign observers forecast drift bet- ago, the scientist had made confession on DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING ween Musharraf and army Chief Kiyani the media to have run a network of the nuc- which will lead back to the fact that the lear-trade, with the reason set aside in the June 2008 Chief of Army Staff must primarily preserve national interest. the armed forces and the military command He is neither a millionaire nor possesses 42 from damages by the hardly computable properties, as it was mentioned in some political work of the shattered President. In media. In matters of security of the Pakis- view of the parliamentary and civil-social tani nuclear-arms the PML-N showed their revival of the country Kiyani avoids any satisfaction over the present Command and confrontation with the civil institutions of Control system which is contentedly subor- the state and includes the government as dinated to the President. For this posture well as leading politicians in consultation on the nearness of the Sharif brothers might military mechanisms. The removing of be the cause to some Punjabi generals as about 300 high ranking officers from the well as their plan to substitute Musharraf as bureaucracy, from state enterprises and the soon as possible with their own candidate. educational sector is seen with pleasing The posture of the PPP concerning the Nati- gesture which does not mislead. Neverthe- onal Defence Council (NDC) is different. less, in fact more than 500 key positions in They demand the replacement by one De- the state enterprises have been created for fence Committee of the cabinet chaired by the armed forces and in the course of deca- the head of the government. The answer to des they have built their own economic em- the question whether and how many milita- pire. ry representatives should belong to such a Also the recasting of military key positions, committee, is left still open. Local experts like that of the chief of Military Intelligence demand an NDC controlled by the majority (MI), is a normal process to a great extent. of politicians besides a basic reorganization Other changes will follow. Kiyani acts here of the relation between politicians and the like every Chief of Army Staff (COAS) be- military. They have in mind a solution ac- fore him. Also the fact-finding missions cording to American model. They suggest formed in the meantime with new head of that the revaluation of the post of Chairman the government of Gilani in Islamabad Joint Chief of Staff Committee's (CJCSC) should not be overrated. 13 shows that it has been meaningless up to now. The four-star general chairing over it; the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and al-

so the Chiefs of Army, Air Force and Navy

are directly subordinated to him. This 13 That Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission should be the only military connection to (PAEC) plans the construction of a 1,2 billion the politics. U.S. $ expensive Pakistan Nuclear Power Fuel Complex, a chemical processing plans, a fuel A reorganization of the matters concerning fabrication plans, a nuclear fuel testing project A. Q. Khan like that of the NDC will be diffi- and should include a Seamless tube plans. For cult for the government without consultati- it is striven, without foreign helps pressurised on with the President and the army leaders- water reactors and nuclear gets things moving hip. Musharraf is resolved to remain as long to be able to build plants

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Kiyani is supposed to preserve respect for dation in Islamabad as a short term expert, the army and raise the moral of the and trainer. PAKISTAN troops. He undertakes everything to avoid

DR. BABAK KHALATBARI a split in the army which could result into sensitive damage to the command and AUTHORS control system of the country. The army DR. FISCHER/ DR. KIESSLING Chief still reports to the President as the

senior most commander of the armed June 2008 forces, whether an essential change emer- ges here, remains to be seen. Whatever changes are really carried out at last - the military will still have a determining say in the Pakistani politics for a long time.

Dr. Karl Fischer

Born in 1939 in India; school education in the GDR with study of the Indology at the Humboldt university of Berlin; in 1969 got the degree of doctorate (PhD); from 1970 to 1990 diplomatic activity in India; Nepal and Pakistan; from 1993 to 2000 activity as an adviser for German energy groups and political endowments; in 2001 acting chair- man of UNSMA; in 2002 to 2004 chief of staff and shouldered additional responsibili- ty of the management of information de- partment of UNAMA. During the parliamen- tary elections in 2008 Dr. Fischer was active as a short-term expert of the Konrad Ade- nauer Foundation in Islamabad in the ca- pacity of an adviser, trainer and analyst.

Dr. Hein Kiessling

Born in 1937 in Marl, Westphalia; school education in the Federal Republic; in 1961

to 1964, joined armed forces and served there from 1967 to 1972, left forces as a Produced by captain, studied political sciences at Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich; several Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung years' activity in the private sector; in 1983 Pakistan Office got the degree of doctorate (PhD); project House 4, 61st street, F- 6/3 Islamabad manager of a German political foundation Pakistan from 1986 to 2002 in Fiji and Pakistan got

Tel.: +92 51 8358972 gallantry award: Federal Service Cross in Email: [email protected] 2002 for his work and achievements in Paki- stan. During the parliamentary elections in 2008 Dr. Kiessling was active as a short- term expert for the Konrad Adenauer Foun-