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UNIVERSIDAD RAFAEL LANDÍVAR FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES LICENCIATURA EN ECONOMÍA EMPRESARIAL "MODELO DE EVALUACIÓN DE RIESGO DE CREDITO PARA EMPRESAS EXPORTADORAS DE CAFE Y AZÚCAR EN GUATEMALA CONSIDERANDO LAS EXPRECTATIVAS DE LOS MERCADOS REFERENCIALES." TESIS DE GRADO DAVID IGNACIO BARRIOS GIL CARNET 10469-12 GUATEMALA DE LA ASUNCIÓN, SEPTIEMBRE DE 2017 CAMPUS CENTRAL UNIVERSIDAD RAFAEL LANDÍVAR FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES LICENCIATURA EN ECONOMÍA EMPRESARIAL "MODELO DE EVALUACIÓN DE RIESGO DE CREDITO PARA EMPRESAS EXPORTADORAS DE CAFE Y AZÚCAR EN GUATEMALA CONSIDERANDO LAS EXPRECTATIVAS DE LOS MERCADOS REFERENCIALES." TESIS DE GRADO TRABAJO PRESENTADO AL CONSEJO DE LA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES POR DAVID IGNACIO BARRIOS GIL PREVIO A CONFERÍRSELE EL TÍTULO DE ECONOMISTA EMPRESARIAL EN EL GRADO ACADÉMICO DE LICENCIADO GUATEMALA DE LA ASUNCIÓN, SEPTIEMBRE DE 2017 CAMPUS CENTRAL AUTORIDADES DE LA UNIVERSIDAD RAFAEL LANDÍVAR RECTOR: P. MARCO TULIO MARTINEZ SALAZAR, S. J. VICERRECTORA ACADÉMICA: DRA. MARTA LUCRECIA MÉNDEZ GONZÁLEZ DE PENEDO VICERRECTOR DE ING. JOSÉ JUVENTINO GÁLVEZ RUANO INVESTIGACIÓN Y PROYECCIÓN: VICERRECTOR DE P. JULIO ENRIQUE MOREIRA CHAVARRÍA, S. J. INTEGRACIÓN UNIVERSITARIA: VICERRECTOR LIC. ARIEL RIVERA IRÍAS ADMINISTRATIVO: SECRETARIA GENERAL: LIC. FABIOLA DE LA LUZ PADILLA BELTRANENA DE LORENZANA AUTORIDADES DE LA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES DECANA: DRA. MARTHA ROMELIA PÉREZ CONTRERAS DE CHEN VICEDECANO: DR. GUILLERMO OSVALDO DÍAZ CASTELLANOS SECRETARIA: MGTR. CLAUDIA ANABELL CAMPOSANO CARTAGENA DIRECTORA DE CARRERA: MGTR. ASTRID DANIELA CAROLINA BELTETÓN MOHR NOMBRE DEL ASESOR DE TRABAJO DE GRADUACIÓN LIC. KAREN SOFFÍA CARRILLO OSORIO TERNA QUE PRACTICÓ LA EVALUACIÓN MGTR. LUIS RODRIGO ASTURIAS SCHAUB LIC. DONALD LOUIS RODAS ARTOLA LIC. PERLA PRISCILLA CHANG PAIZ 2 Agradecimientos Dedico este trabajo de tesis a: A Dios: Señor bendito, tuya sea la gloria la honra y el honor por los siglos de los siglos. Gracias Padre Santo porque me das la inteligencia, la fuerza y la sabiduría para estudiar. A mis padres: David Antonio Barrios Diéguez y María del Rosario Gil Morales de Barrios, que con tanto amor me han apoyado y con firmeza me formaron para ser el hombre que soy. A mi hermana Daniela Isabella Barrios Gil por el amor y cariño recibido de ella. A mi abuelita Naty y mi abuelita Alis (Q.P.D), quienes me enseñaron que, sin importar las circunstancias de la vida, de la mano de Dios siempre es posible salir adelante. A mi buen amigo el MAF. Omar Garrido por su apoyo técnico y moral para la realización de la presente tesis. A la Licda. Karen Carrillo por su apoyo técnico para la realización de la presente tesis. A Marianita Mendoza por su apoyo incondicional y su paciencia durante todos los meses de arduo trabajo. 3 Contenido I. INTRODUCCIÓN ........................................................................................................ 1 II. MARCOS REFERENCIALES ................................................................................. 2 2.1. Marco Contextual .................................................................................................... 2 2.1.1. Reseña histórica del café en Guatemala y su comercialización ....................... 2 2.1.2. Reseña histórica del azúcar en Guatemala y su comercialización ................... 3 2.1.3. Reseña histórica de la bolsa de valores en Guatemala .................................... 5 2.1.4. Contexto de la producción de café en Guatemala ............................................ 6 2.1.5. Contexto de la producción de azúcar en Guatemala ........................................ 6 2.1.6. Financiamiento del sector cafetalero en Guatemala ......................................... 7 2.1.7. Financiamiento del sector azucarero en Guatemala ......................................... 8 2.1.8. Contexto internacional del mercado azucarero y caficultor ............................... 9 2.1.8.1. Precio del café y volatilidad del precio ........................................................ 11 2.1.8.2. Precio del azúcar y volatilidad del precio .................................................... 12 2.1.8.3. Comercio exterior del café .......................................................................... 14 2.1.8.4. Comercio exterior del azúcar ...................................................................... 11 2.2. Marco Teórico ....................................................................................................... 17 2.2.1. Mercados de derivados .................................................................................. 17 2.2.2. Teoría sobre el análisis técnico ...................................................................... 18 2.2.3. Teoría sobre el modelo de análisis de riesgo de crédito con mercados referenciales................................................................................................................. 18 2.2.3.1. Perfil del solicitante ...................................................................................... 19 2.2.3.2. Teoría sobre la importancia del financiamiento ............................................ 20 2.2.4. Instrumentos futuros ...................................................................................... 21 2.2.5. Opciones ........................................................................................................ 22 2.2.6. Los contratos bursátiles ................................................................................. 22 2.2.7. Volatilidad ...................................................................................................... 25 2.2.8. Riesgo ........................................................................................................... 27 III. PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA ................................................................... 29 3.1. Objetivos generales ........................................................................................... 32 3.1.1. Objetivos específicos .................................................................................. 32 3.2. Hipótesis ............................................................................................................ 32 3.3. VARIABLES DE ESTUDIO ................................................................................ 33 3.4. ALCANCES Y LÍMITES ..................................................................................... 33 4 3.5. Aporte ................................................................................................................ 34 IV. MÉTODO .............................................................................................................. 36 4.1. Sujetos ............................................................................................................ 35 4.2. Población y Muestra ......................................................................................... 35 4.3. Instrumentos ..................................................................................................... 36 4.4. Unidades de análisis estadísticas .................................................................... 37 4.5. Presentación de los datos ........................................................................................ 38 4.5.1.1. Modelo habitual de análisis de riesgo de crédito ................................................ 38 4.5.1.2. Situación No. 1: Análisis de riesgo de crédito para empresa azucarera sin implementación de mercado referencial........................................................................... 41 4.5.1.3. Situación No. 2: Análisis de riesgo de crédito para empresa caficultora sin implementación de mercado referencial........................................................................... 46 4.6. Implementación del mercado referencial en el modelo de análisis de riesgo de crédito ........................................................................................................................................ 51 4.7. Procedimiento .......................................................................................................... 52 4.7.1. Procedimiento analítico para la implementación del mercado referencial en el análisis de riesgo de crédito............................................................................................. 52 4.7.2. Ejercicio No. 1. Análisis de riesgo de crédito para empresa azucarera con implementación del mercado referencial .......................................................................... 54 4.7.3. Ejercicio No. 2. Análisis de riesgo de crédito para empresa caficultora con implementación del mercado referencial .......................................................................... 59 V. ANÁLISIS E INTERPRETACIÓN DE RESULTADOS ............................................ 65 VI. CONCLUSIONES ................................................................................................. 70 VII. RECOMENDACIONES ......................................................................................... 72 VIII. Bibliografía ............................................................................................................ 73 IX. ANEXOS .................................................................................................................... 75 5.1. Entrevista a análista de créditos ........................................................................ 73 5.2. Glosario ............................................................................................................
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