2015 Yearbook of Peace Processes
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School for a Culture of Peace 2015 yearbook of peace processes Vicenç Fisas (ed.) Icaria editorial Printing: Romanyà Valls, SA Design: Lucas J. Wainer ISBN: 978-84-9888-654-2 Legal Deposit: B-9288-2012 This yearbook was written by Vicenç Fisas, Director of the UAB’s School for a Culture of Peace. The author would like to express his gratitude for the information provided by numerous members of the School’s research team, especially Josep María Royo, Jordi Urgell, Pamela Urrutia, Ana Villellas and María Villellas. Vicenç Fisas also holds the UNESCO Chair in Peace and Human Rights at the UAB. He has a doctorate in Peace Studies from the University of Bradford, won the National Human Rights Award in 1988, and is the author of over 30 books on conflicts, disarmament and research into peace. Some of his published titles include Manual de procesos de paz (Handbook of Peace Processes), Procesos de paz y negociación en conflictos armados (Peace Processes and Negotiation in Armed Conflicts), La paz es posible (Peace is Possible) and Cultura de paz y gestión de conflictos (Peace Culture and Conflict Management). 2 CONTENTS Introduction: definitions and categories …………………………………………………………0505 The main stages in a peace process……………………………………………………………..0606 Usual stages in negotiation processes……………………………………………………………0808 Main conclusions of the year……………………………………………………………………..0909 Peace processes in 2014…………………………………………………………… ……………..1313 Conflicts and peace processes at the end of 2014 …………………………………………………1616 Conflicts and peace processes in recent years…………………………………………………..1717 Special topic: Cities of Peace…………………………………………………………………….2020 Analyses by country Africa………………………………………………………………………………………2828 a) West Africa………………………………………………………………………28 28 Mali………………………………………………………………………28 28 Senegal (Casamance)…………………………………………………...35 35 b) Horn of Africa…………………………………………………………………….41 41 Ethiopia (Ogaden) ……………………………………………………….41 41 Somalia…………………………………………………………………..44 44 Sudan (National Dialogue)………………………………………………49 49 a) Sudan (Darfur)………………………………………………………53 53 b) Sudan (South Kordofan and Blue Nile)……………………………58 58 South Sudan……………………………………………………………..62 62 Sudan-South Sudan…………………………………………………….67 67 c) Great Lakes and Central Africa………………………………………………..7272 Central African Republic……………………………………………….72 72 DR Congo………………………………………………………………...77 77 d) Maghreb and North Africa Libya……………………………………………………………………..85 85 Western Sahara…………………………………………………………94 94 Latin America…………………………………………………………………………….101011 Colombia (ELN, FARC) ………………………………………………..101101 Asia and Pacific………………………………………………….………………………126126 a) Southern Asia…………………………………………………………………126126 Afghanistan…………………………………………………………….126 126 India (Assam, Manipur and Nagaland)……………………………...133 133 India-Pakistan (Kashmir)…………………………………………….144 144 Pakistan………………………………………………………………..149 149 b) Southeast Asia……………………………………………………………..153153 Burma / Myanmar……………………………………………………..153 153 Philippines (MILF, NPA, MNLF)…………………………………….162 162 Thailand (South)……………………………………………………….177 177 Europe……………………………………………………………………………………184184 a) Southeast Europe……………………………………………………………..184184 Cyprus…………………………………………………………………..184 184 Kosovo………………………………………………………………….189 189 3 Moldova (Transdniestria)………………………………………..……..1951 95 Turkey (PKK)…………………………………………………………..201201 Ukraine…………………………………………………………………210210 b) Caucasus………………………………………………………………………..221221 Armenia-Azerbaijan………………………………………………..…..22122 1 Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia)………………………..………227227 Middle East……………………………………………………………………………………….223434 Israel-Palestine…………………………………………………..……..234234 Appendices 1. Frequency of the rounds of talks ………………………………………………………...243243 2. Facilitators in the conflicts studied……………………………………………………244244 3. Tell me what it was like… The mirrors of peace ………………………………………245245 4. Examples of commanders of armed groups who were released from prison to participate in peace negotiations……………………………………… …………….246246 5. Conflicts, peace processes and UN Security Council resolutions in 2014 ……………247247 6. Managing the past in recent peace agreements ………………………………………248248 7. Peace processes in recent years ………………………………………………………...250250 8. Websites of interest……………………………………………………………………..264264 Escola de Cultura de Pau………………………………………………………………………..266266 4 Introduction This tenth edition of the Yearbook on Peace Processes1 analyses conflicts in which negotiations are being held to reach a peace agreement, regardless of whether these negotiations are formalised, are in the exploratory phase, are faring well or, to the contrary, are stalled or in the midst of crisis. It also analyses some cases in which negotiations or explorations are partial; that is, they do not include all the armed groups present in the country (such as the case of India, for example). The majority of the negotiations refer to armed conflicts, but we also analyse quite a few contexts in which, despite the fact that there are no considerable armed clashes today, the parties have not reached a permanent agreement that would put an end to the hostilities and conflicts still pending. In that sense, the negotiations make sense in an effort to fend off the start or resurgence of new armed clashes. The organisation of the analysis of each conflict follows a similar pattern in most cases: 1) a brief synopsis of the context of the conflict, with a small description of the armed groups and the main actors intervening in each conflict, 2) the background to the peace process, 3) the events that happened in 2014, 4) a table with the most significant events in the year as a summary, 5) a selection of websites where you can monitor the conflict and 6) a table illustrating the relationships among the primary and secondary actors in each conflict, highlighting the spaces of intermediation in each case.2 At the start of every country, there is a small box with basic statistics on it. The government armed forces are not included in the section of the box called “Armed actors”. The author of this yearbook has tried to stay within the bounds of mentioning new deeds, events, successes, failures or proposals in an attempt to limit personal opinions on these events to the extent possible. MODALITIES OR STAGES IN PEACE PROCESSES Informal indirect contacts Formal indirect contacts Informal direct contacts Formal direct contacts Informal explorations Formal explorations Informal dialogues Formal dialogues Formal negotiations Formal peace process By negotiation we mean the process through which two or more clashing parties (either countries or internal actors within the same country) agree to discuss their differences in an agreed-upon setting to find a solution that will meet their demands. This negotiation can be either direct or through third-party facilitation. Formal negotiations usually have a prior, exploratory, phase, which enables the framework (format, venue, conditions, guarantees, etc.) of the future negotiations to be defined. By peace process we mean the consolidation of a negotiation scheme 1 The yearbook expands on the information provided by the Escola de Cultura de Pau through its annual publication “Alerta 2015” (Icària Editorial, 2015), which is updated quarterly through the electronic publication “Barómetro” (http: escolapau.uab.cat). 2 This “space of intermediation” includes not only the more formal “facilitators or mediators” (which are indicated by letter size or bold face), but also other institutions or individuals that have somehow intervened. Obviously, facilitation efforts that were not made public are not included, even if the author is aware of some of them. 5 once the thematic agenda and the procedures to follow have been defined, along with the calendar and the facilitators. Therefore, negotiation is just one stage in a peace process. By ceasefire we mean the military decision to halt any combat or use of weapons during a specified period, while cessation of hostilities includes not only a ceasefire but also the commitment not to engage in kidnapping, harassment of the civilian population, threats, etc. Depending on the ultimate goals sought and the dynamic of the different phases in the negotiation process, the majority of peace processes can be categorised into one of these five categories or models, although some cases may combine two categories: a) Demobilisation and reinsertion b) Sharing of political, military or economic power c) Exchange (peace for democracy, peace for land, peace for withdrawal, peace for recognition of rights, etc.) d) Trust-building measures e) Formulas for self-governance or “intermediate political architectures” The model of peace process is usually related to the kinds of demands presented and the actors’ capacity to exert pressure or demand (level of symmetry between the military, political and social spheres), although mentors and facilitators, the weariness of the actors, support received and other less rational factors related to leaders’ pathologies, imagined events or historical inertia also come into play. In some cases, though not many, especially if the process has lasted a long time, it might begin in one of the above categories (demobilisation and reinsertion, for example) and then the demands expand to situate the process in another more complex category. It is also important to recall that not all processes or their previous phases of exploration, dialogue and negotiation are undertaken with true sincerity, as it is common for them to be part of the actor’s war strategy, either to win time, to internationalise and