Climate Adaptation and Action Plan for the Norton Bay Watershed, Alaska Norton Bay Inter-Tribal Watershed Council Norton Bay, Alaska Emily Murray Project Coordinator Norton Bay Inter-Tribal Watershed Council Hal Shepherd, Principal Jessica Ryan, Climate Consultant Laoch Consulting Prepared in cooperation with Climate Solutions University, a program of the Model Forest Policy Program and the Cumberland River Compact i Foreword The Norton Bay Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (NBITWC), the Model Forest Policy Program (MFPP) and the Norton Bay Alaska Native Villages (Villages) have a shared vision to enhance the resiliency of our communities and watershed. In 2013, the NBITWC, in partnership with the Villages, took the leadership role to engage in the Climate Solution’s University (CSU) Plan Development Program created by the Model Forest Policy Program. The goal of CSU is to empower rural, underserved communities to become leaders in climate resilience using a cost effective distance learning program. This Climate Change Adaption Plan for the Norton Bay Watershed (CCAP) is the result of a year of community team effort, bringing in an array of stakeholders and expertise, building partnerships, extensive information gathering, critical thinking, and engaged planning. The result is a localized, actionable plan that the Norton Bay community and supporters can implement in the coming years. The outcome will be a community that has strengthened capacity to be resilient to the inevitable impacts of climate change- a community with the awareness, shared vision, and partnerships to enable it to have the capacity to withstand the impacts of climate upon the natural resources, economy, and community. Acknowledgements The NBITWC would like to acknowledge the following who contributed to development of this plan: The Model Forest Policy Program The Cumberland River Compact The Native Villages of: Elim, Shaktoolik, Unalakleet and Koyuk Climate Solutions University would not have been possible without the major funding of The Kresge Foundation and other funders, which allowed us to develop the in-depth curriculum and provide grants for local community participation. The development of this plan was made possible by the guidance and coaching of the Climate Solutions University: Forest and Water Strategies program (CSU), created by the Model Forest Policy Program in partnership with the Cumberland River Compact and the assistance of Headwaters Economics. The team that leads the CSU program includes: Nancy Gilliam, Gwen Griffith, Todd Crossett, Toby Thaler, Margaret Hall, Jeff Morris, Alyx Perry, Ray Rasker, Vanitha Sivarajan, Mike Johnson and Josh Dye. Suggested citation: Murray, E., Ryan, J., Shepherd, H. & Thaler, T., Griffith, G., Crossett, T., Rasker, R. (Eds). 2013. Climate Adaptation and Action Plan for the Norton Bay Watershed, Alaska, Model Forest Policy Program in association with Norton Bay Inter-Tribal Watershed Council, the Cumberland River Compact and Headwaters Economics; Sagle, ID. i Available for download from: www.mfpp.org Date of publication: December, 2013 © 2013 Model Forest Policy Program Authors Emily Murray Project Coordinator, Norton Bay Inter-Tribal Watershed Council Hal Shepherd, Principal Jessica Ryan, Climate Consultant Laoch Consulting Editors Gwen Griffith, Toby Thaler, Todd Crossett, and Ray Rasker Copyright It is the intent of the authors and copyright holder that this plan be implemented and used as a model for climate adaptation planning by other communities. Any part of plan may be reproduced without permission for non-commercial purposes provided that it is reproduced accurately and not in a misleading context and the source of the material is clearly acknowledged by means of the above title, publisher, and date. The wide dissemination, reproduction, and use of the plan for non-commercial purposes are all encouraged. Users of the plan are requested to inform the Model Forest Policy Program at: Model Forest Policy Program, P.O. Box 328, Sagle, Idaho 83860 [email protected], (509) 432-8679; www.mfpp.org No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Model Forest Policy Program. Disclaimer The material in this publication does not imply the opinion, endorsement, views, or policies of the Model Forest Policy Program, the Cumberland River Compact or Headwaters Economics. ii Table of Contents I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................... 1 II. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 5 a. Community Introduction .................................................................................................. 7 b. Climate Overview .......................................................................................................... 10 c. Early Signs of Climate Change in Alaska...................................................................... 14 d. Why Adaptation Planning is Important ......................................................................... 23 III. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ................................................................................................... 25 a. Description of the Economy .......................................................................................... 25 b. Economics Resources Law and Policy .......................................................................... 28 c. Rural Alaska................................................................................................................... 30 d. Wild Food Harvest Levels ............................................................................................. 31 e. Subsistence Economy with Cash Overlay ..................................................................... 31 f. The Relationship between the Economy and Climate Change ...................................... 32 g. Economics Risk Factors ................................................................................................. 34 IV. FOREST RESOURCE ASSESSMENT .............................................................................. 37 a. Contemporary Landscape – Forest History, Current Conditions and Trends ................ 37 b. Forest Impact Findings – Current Ecological Stressors and Ecosystem Responses ...... 46 c. Forest Resources Law and Policy .................................................................................. 56 V. WATER RESOURCES ASSESSMENT FINDINGS ......................................................... 64 Water Resource Stakeholders .............................................................................................. 64 a. Water Quantity, Quality, and Diversity of Aquatic Habitats ......................................... 64 b. Fishery and Wildlife Resources ..................................................................................... 66 c. Ecosystem Integrity ....................................................................................................... 69 d. Indigenous Cultures ....................................................................................................... 70 e. Existing Conditions ........................................................................................................ 71 f. Water Risk Findings ...................................................................................................... 75 g. Water Law and Policies ................................................................................................. 78 VI. ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN ........................................................................................ 87 Team and Strategic Analysis Process .................................................................................. 87 Assessment Findings - Summary and Recommendations ................................................... 87 Goals, Objectives, Strategies ............................................................................................... 90 iii VII. CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN ....................................... 96 Plan Implementation ............................................................................................................ 96 Outcomes Anticipated from Implementation of the Plan .................................................... 96 VIII. APPENDICES ...................................................................................................................... 98 APPENDIX A: Year One Activities List........................................................................... 98 APPENDIX B: Native Village Employment Data ............................................................ 99 APPENDIX C: Native Village Income Data and Poverty Levels .................................... 107 APPENDIX D: Planning Team and Advisors .................................................................. 118 APPENDIX E: Community Readiness SWOT Analysis ................................................ 120 iv I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY While many people still debate the existence of climate change and even those who have accepted that it has reality believe that climate change is a phenomenon of the future, Alaska is already feeling the effects of our rapidly changing world. During the fall of 2013, for example, the state continued to experience record high temperatures when Anchorage recorded an all-time high of 51