Investor Presentation
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Investor Presentation Investor Relations April 26, 2019 A strong and integrated value chain Sales 1) (SEKbn) EBITDA 1) (SEKbn) 18.8 5.3 EBITDA margin 1) Industrial ROCE 2) Forest Renewable Wood energy 28% 16% Forestland Net growth Pulp Paper 2.6m ha 3.0m m3fo Note: 1) 2018. 2) ROCE for the industrial segments; Wood, Pulp and Paper. 2 Europe’s largest private forest owner Sawmill Forestland Pulp mill Kraftliner mill 6% Publication Paper mill 2.6m ha of Sweden Pellet production SCA’s forest Productive forestland Munksund 2.0m ha Obbola Rundvik Stugun Bollstabruk Standing volume Gällö Härnösand Östrand Tunadal 235m m3fo Ortviken 3 We use the Electricity Wind turbines entire tree Heat Bioenergy Logging residue & wood fuel Pellets Tall oil, Liquid biofuels black liquor & bark Pulp & paper mills Pulp Pulpwood Paper Wood-chips Bark & sawdust Sawmills Solid-wood products Sawlogs 4 Integrated value chain drives profitability EBITDA margin 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Nordic peer 1 Nordic peer 2 Nordic peer 3 Nordic peer 4 Nordic peer 5 SCA 5 We deliver sustainable development Fossil-free world Valuable forests Efficient Responsibility for people use of resources and the community Profitable growth Values 2 SCA’s forests bind CO and Replaces 2 Higher growth enables more substitution – 5 renewable alternatives replace fossil Mt CO replace fossil based products 2 based products SCA’s renewable Non-renewable 1 products products Binds net Growing forests bind CO2 – 4 active forest management Bioenergy Fossil increases growth Mt CO2 fuels Fertilization Operations Paper Plastic Contorta pine 3 Solid-wood Investments and products Concrete innovation reduce Active silviculture carbon emissions Low Emissions 0.9 Improved SCA’s climate benefits amount to seedlings Mt CO2 8 million tonnes of CO2 per annum, which is more than the total emissions from all the truck traffic and domestic air travel in Sweden* * Source: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 7 Global trends favoring fiber based renewable materials Growing Growing Eco-awareness population and demand for middle class virgin fiber Increased demand for E-commerce renewable materials 8 Profitable growth strategy 1 Forest – the source of value creation Increased 2 Wood – moving forward in the value chain value from each tree 3 Pulp – doubled capacity Growing 4 forest asset Paper – potential kraftliner expansion 5 Renewable energy – the next value creator 9 Cash flow funded growth opportunities Value Biorefinery optionality Östrand – further capacity increase ROCE Kraftliner expansion 20192021/22 Research and Biofuel production development from CTO Leverage 2020 Opportunity to Pilot plant further increase 5.0 TWh wind capacity at power on SCA land Östrand 20182019 Pre-project to Credit rating Increase share evaluate an of WT Kraftliner expansion at 20152018 Obbola Joint venture with Östrand St1 signed expansion 100 000 m3 Integrated Wind power on SCA biofuels value chain land is expected to increase to 6.7 TWh in 2021 Decided or completed projects SEK 200m investment +50kt WT Kraftliner Potential projects from summer 2019 SEK 8bn investment Production started in June 2018 Time 10 Forest – the source of value creation Europe’s largest private forest owner Sales (SEKm) Forest holdings located close to SCA’s industry Sawmill Pulp mill 6% • 2.6m ha forestland Kraftliner mill of Sweden 5,455 Publication Paper Pellet production • 2.0m ha productive forestland SCA’s forest EBITDA (SEKm) • 235m m3fo standing volume Munksund 50% of wood raw material needs are provided 1,394 for by wood from SCA’s own forest Obbola Rundvik Young forest yields high growth Stugun Bollstabruk EBITDA margin Gällö Härnösand • 9.5m m3fo gross growth Östrand Tunadal 26% • 5.2m m3fo annual harvesting (4.3m m3sub) Ortviken Financials refer to 2018. 12 The forest is our source of value creation Growth Harvesting Land value 13 Profitable growth since 1950 1) Standing volume Growing Harvest plan IncreasingIncreasing Land value Increasing million m3fo asset base million m3sub cashcash flow flow SEK/m3fo (real value) land value +60% +120% +265% 235 4.3 407 146 2.0 >6,000% nominal increase 111 1950 2018 1950 2018 1950 2018 Note: 1) Average price Sweden, real price (2018 price level). Source Lantmäteriet. 14 Significant real growth of 3.5% Forest growth metrics (m m3fo) Gross growth of standing forest 9.5 Natural losses and pre-commercial thinning -1.3 Real growth rate of 3.5% (in relation to the standing Available growth of standing forest 8.2 volume of 235m m3fo) (1) Current cash flow Annual harvesting -5.2 New harvesting plan every 8-10 years Harvesting increase to >7m m3fo in 2114 Annual net increase of standing forest 3.0 Future cash flow Note: 1) Corresponding to approximately 4.3m m3sub. 15 Improved practices increase growth Growth plan at different taxations (standing volume / hectare) m3fo/ha 1 130 2018 Silviculture 235m m3fo 2.0m ha 120 Tax IX vs 2014 Tax VI 2 110 +14 m3fo/ha Fertilization 100 Tax VI vs 1984 Tax II 3 90 3 Improved seedlings +7 m fo/ha 80 4 70 Introduction of lodgepole pine 60 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Tax II (1953-54) Tax VI (1983-84) Tax IX (2012-13) Source: SCA measurements and estimates. 16 Note: Taxation = forest inventorisation. Lodgepole pine = Pinus contorta. Market valuation of forest assets Value of forest land (2018, SEK/m3fo) Factors driving market valuation • Growth and harvesting 286 • Improved seedlings 268 269 • Silviculture and fertilization • Technical development • Climate change 136 • Land value not included in IAS 41 Book value SCA SCA LRF northern purchases divestments Sweden 17 Limited supply of wood raw material Estimated change in harvesting potential 2016-2025 (softwood sawlogs) Demand of wood products growing faster than supply CAGR 2017-2025e ~2.0% • Insect damage in Canada +15m m3 • Harvesting restrictions in China -16m m3 +1m m3 • Limited potential for new softwood +15m m3 plantations in South America +7m m3 +17m m3 • Limited forest infrastructure in Russia ~0.5% +1m m3 +2m m3 Global harvest ‘17 Harvesting potential Demand growth ~725m m3 softwood sawlogs softwood sawn timber Source: Timwood. 18 Forest – strategic direction 1 Maximize growth and long-term harvesting potential 2 Preserve the forest’s biodiversity and contribute to a positive impact on the climate 3 Increase the forest holding 19 Wood – moving forward in the value chain Leading European wood producer Sales (SEKm) 5 modern and well invested sawmills 2.2m m3 6,618 2 painting and 8 planing facilities capacity Own distribution network EBITDA (SEKm) 420k Focus on value added products Munksund 904 • Wood industry – customers are mainly manufacturers of furniture, doors, windows, flooring and roofs 330k 560k Rundvik • Building materials trade – customers mainly include 330k Bollstabruk EBITDA margin building materials chains in Scandinavia, the UK and Gällö France Tunadal 540k 14% 3 Capacity (m /year) Financials refer to 2018. 21 Attractive market outlook for wood products Strong global softwood demand m m3 450 ~2% 3.1% CAGR 400 CAGR Good level of building activity in the US Other 350 Softwood import increasing in China 300 Asia 250 Increased R&R in Europe and the US 200 Europe Strong European construction market 150 (incl. RU) 100 North 50 America 0 2012 2018 2025e Source: Timwood, Skogsindustrierna, UNECE. 22 One of the largest and most efficient sawmill operations in Europe From 11 to 5 highly automated and efficient sawmills 2007 2018 SEK ~2.5 bn invested 2.2m m3 2009-2018 1.8m m3 Boden Vilhelmina 11 5 Munksund Munksund sawmills sawmills Jämtlamell Holmsund Rundvik Rundvik Gällö Gällö Bollsta Bollsta Graninge Tunadal Tunadal 2007 2018 Tjärnvik Average capacity/ 160k 430k mill: (m3/year) 23 Long-term profitable growth with focus on value added products Wood sales (SEKbn) +9 % p.a. Profitable growth 6.6 Higher and more stable margins over a business 4.5 cycle Customized products 1.1 based on customer insights 1998 2008 2018 Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade 24 Product innovation Pine heartwood decking Outdoor cladding with concealed fitting 25 Wood – strategic direction 1 Strengthen SCA’s integrated value chain – sawlogs give the largest revenue from a tree 2 Continued profitable growth through: • Value-added and customized products • Volume growth in sawmill capacity − Opportunity to increase volumes at Bollsta sawmill 3 Production optimization to achieve the highest level of efficiency 26 Pulp – doubled capacity High quality NBSK pulp producer Sales (SEKm) High quality bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK) • Focus on high strength properties 1.0Mt 2,866 capacity • Capacity: 900 kt/year (2020) • The pulp is used in tissue, packaging, publication paper EBITDA (SEKm) and filters Chemical thermomechanical pulp (CTMP) 709 • Capacity: 100 kt/year • The pulp is used in packaging and hygiene products EBITDA margin Net producer of green electricity 25% • 1.2 TWh/year (2020) Östrand Financials refer to 2018. 28 Increasing pulp demand driven by a growing tissue market Limited softwood pulp supply growth Tissue demand driving growth Global pulp market (demand Mt) Softwood pulp capacity (Mt) Index (global market) Limited new CAGR capacity Östrand, ~3% 0.1 Äänekoski 180 5 28 28 2 28 Tissue consumption 160 25 26 24 Total: 66 140 120 34 100 Bleached Softwood Kraft Bleached Hardwood Kraft Sulfite Unbleached Kraft 80 Mechanical pulp 2008 2013 2018 2020e 2023e