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Kentucky Derby Preview” at Californiawinning.Com (“Free Daily Selections”) and ALSO Appended to the End of This Document Check out my free “Kentucky Derby Preview” at californiawinning.com (“Free Daily Selections”) and ALSO appended to the end of this document. In addition, on Friday afternoon, I will be posting my detailed Graded Analysis for all of the horses in the Derby, analyzing every horse’s chances. If you wish to buy the detailed, complete Kentucky Derby analysis, including the pros and cons of all starters, please go to “Today’s Full Racing Card” and transmit $10 to my PayPal account. I will then forward the full Kentucky Derby analysis to you by electronic mail. Thank you… _____________________________________________________ SANTA ANITA (THE GREAT RACE PLACE) Friday, May 5, 2017 FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to “predict the future,” because it ain’t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot fillie waiting for him back at the barn…so please stick with me if there are a few “speed-bumps” along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a “firm” turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded “fast.” Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than ideal conditions. californiawinning.com, Graded Selections….as follows… Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race…I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively…however, as we all know, “a horse is a horse, of course, of course” on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. All purchases are final. Thank you. Today’s Free Selections for 5 5 17 __________________________________________________________________ Scratches recognized up to 8 p.m. PDT, Thursday, May 4, 2017, approximate time of posting… Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? __________________________________________________________________ RACE 1: Vanlose Stairway has won a third of her races at race distance (“RD”), has hit the board in five of his last six races, four times at RD, he closes his races well and his marriage of rider and trainer is a raison d’etre. Pearl de Vere also wins a third of her races, closes her races very well, and enjoys the avuncular and sophisticated Santa Anita crowd, she will vie. Little Bit Lovely is the M/L favorite, in large measure because she shows excellent recent works, and comes off a win here at Rd, she will certainly be in the fray. RACE 2: Sidepocket Run walks, as the elder lady in the field, walks: she shows stellar recent works, has vacationed since last November, although she has not done much of late, I see a resurgence here to her prior form, where she loves the mile, and she certainly enjoys racing here. Individual Design, the M/L favorite, marries top rider and trainer, has won six of seventeen races at RD, kills Santa Anita and comes off an easy win here at RD. Papaslilprincess moves down and shows steady works, he beat Individual Design when the two dueled here at RD in the wet last February, and also finished a half-length behind the latter when the two last dueled, also in the mile here, last March. RACE 3: Bona Fide Image, the M/L favorite, has an incredibly “hot” trainer, Bill Spawr, scoring 38% wins with this equines at present, she moves down and had a rider who knows her very well, and she will fight. For the Lovof Patty sports credible works, has been in the thick of things twice in seven tries, the class relief will help. Mandy D also moves down, shows steady works and has a truly excellent jockey aboard, it would be imprudent to diss or dismiss here. ***** DON’T FORGET TO CHECK OUT MY FREE “KENTUCKY DERBY PREVIEW” appended to the end of this document and also located at “Free Daily Selections”… and then you can buy my full Derby analysis by clicking your way to “Today’s Full Racing Card,” transmit $10 to my PayPal account, and then I will email the full analysis to you promptly. Also, as to Santa Anita, for only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather “elegant” summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders… For my selections for the rest of today’s racing card, please go to californiawinning.com, “Today’s Full Racing Card,” where you will be requested to pay a fee of your choosing.. Please consider a thirty (30) day subscription which will save you lots of time, and money as well. Also, check out my free “Handicapping Tips” at californiawinning.com. If this is your first ever request for “Today’s Full Racing Card,” that first purchase is free. Just email your own email address to me at [email protected], and make the request, and I will comply ASAP. Payments will be accepted up to approximately one hour after the post time of Race 1, such that today’s deadline for payments is 2 p.m. PDT, 5 p.m. EDT, and I will transmit to you, by email, today’s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you make a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: [email protected] KENTUCKY DERBY: californiawinning.com ________________________________________________________ 143rd KENTUCKY DERBY: OVERVIEW (unless otherwise stated, includes all twenty-two potential racers) ________________________________________________________ Location and Time: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky, Saturday, May 6 @ 6:34 P.M. EDT (watch on NBC network) Weather: Current reports (as of 9 a.m. EDT, Thursday, May 4) show a 60% chance of rain on Saturday, and at this time it is pouring there The Race: It is 1 ¼ miles, on the main track, with twenty equine athletes, all of whom are three year old colts, participating (only two contestants, Thunder Snow and Master Plan, have ever raced at one and one quarter miles) The Odds: The Morning Line favorite is set at 4/1. Two other entrants are set at 5/1. One entrant is set at 6/1. The remaining sixteen starters are set at a range of 15/1 (four horses) to 50/1 (two horses: one of those is a maiden, believe it or not). The Horses’ Past Performances in Graded Races (general): Fifteen of the participants have won graded races before. Eight of them have won multiple graded races: Thunder Snow (3), Girvin (2), Gunnevera (3), Classic Empire (4), McCracken (2), Irish War Cry (2), Gormley (3), and Practical Joke (2). The Most Rested and the Least Rested Horses: The most rested horses will have rested since March 25, exactly 42 days (six weeks) prior to Saturday’s race. There are three such horses: Thunder Snow, Fast and Accurate and Master Plan. In addition, Hence has rested since March 26 (almost six weeks). The least rested horses will have rested since April 15, exactly 21 days (a mere three weeks) prior to Saturday’s race. There are four such horses: Lookin at Lee, Untrapped, Sonneteer, and Classic Empire. Nine horses will have rested since April 8, exactly 28 days (four weeks) prior to Saturday’s race. These horses are Irap, Battle of Midway, J Boys Echo, McCracken, Tapwrit, Irish War Cry, Gormley, Practical Joke, and Royal Mo. Finally, five horses will have rested since April 1, exactly 35 days (five weeks) prior to Saturday’s race. These horses are Always Dreaming, State of Honor, Girvin, Gunnevera, and Patch. If It Rains, How Many Horses Have Raced in Such Conditions? Thirteen of the entrants have been reported to have raced on a wet track. These horses are: Lookin at Lee, Thunder Snow, Untrapped, Hence, Irap, Gunnevera, Battle of Midway, Sonneteer, Classic Empire, Tapwrit, Gormley, Royal Mo, and Master Plan. Of those, seven horses have been reported to have won a race on a wet track. These horses are: Thunder Snow, Fast and Accurate (twice), Hence, Battle of Midway, Classic Empire, Tapwrit, Gormley, and Royal Mo.
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