Making Human Centred Futures Cindy Frewen Bridgette Engler Maree Conway

1/02/2018

• Welcome and introductions • Why are you here? • Our perspectives on human centres futures • A game for you • Closing discussion

The Flow

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• Who you are • Why you came to this session

Why are you here?

• Cindy • Maree • Bridgette

Our perspectives on human centred futures

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Conversations Maree Conway Thinking Futures about the Future Melbourne, Australia

People create the future Thinking about the future is not a ‘thing’ – it happens in people’s minds.

The ‘future’ as idea, image, story, anticipation.

Becomes ‘real’ when we talk about it – language as social construction (Fuller and Loogma, 2009).

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Radical Imagination (Haiven & Khasnabish 2014)

• “… an analytical category of sociological process … that creates a shared landscape of possibility and contestation.”

• “… emerges from and guides collective doing.”

Integral Theory (Wilber 2000)

Integral Theory is complex, multi- faceted, well researched (Esbjorn- Hargens 2010) and contentious (Meyerhoff, 2010; Gidley 2010).

Draws together what Wilber determined were useful insights from all major areas of human knowledge and to “honour all truths and acknowledge the value of many different ways of knowing across all significant fields” (Slaughter 2004).

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Integral Futures

Developed by Richard Slaughter based on Ken Wilber’s work on Integral Theory (2000 and many more).

“The entire external world is constantly held together by interior structures of meaning and value” (Slaughter 2012).

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Individual Organisational Consciousness Behaviour

Culture Social Systems & Structures

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ConversationD Prerequisite What I Do Desired Outcomes

Upper Left: Willingness to commit time and Mentoring, Coaching Deeper understanding of Conversations with self space to think – regular and non- Training/Webinars futures literacy and agency, negotiable reframe ‘my’ thinking

Lower Left: Willingness to be open to the Interviews, observation of Looking for organisational Conversations about outcomes, willing to make the processes, culture mapping DNA, ideas about what the culture ‘elephant in the room’ visible (Enthesos - organisation is and what it http://www.entheos.com.au does – both constraining and /our-approach) enabling openness to the future Upper Right: Willingness to move beyond Co-design processes with Collaborative, inclusive Conversations about conventional strategic planning and people to match context – process with all staff having foresight processes the certainty it provides and push the boundaries a opportunity to be involved - little sometimes no information ‘quarantine’

Lower Right: Willingness to move beyond ‘what Co-design horizon/ Futures focused scan, at least Conversations about we know we know’ and ‘what we environmental scanning 10 years into the future, the social environment know we don’t know’ – always process designed to provoke thinking varies depending on organisation Training/Webinars not to provide answers

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Framing my work

Make time and space for individual and collective conversations about the future. Inviting diversity, difference and contradiction into the room. Building individual and collective understanding of ways to ‘use the future’ today (Rhisiart, Miller & Brooks 2015) as one outcome. Seeking stronger sense making about the present to be able to design pathways to the future.

Work in progress

Conversation framework developed earlier this year.

A work in progress.

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• Sean Esbjorn-Hargens (2010) Integral Theory in Action, State University of New York. • Jenny Gidley (2010) An other view of integral futures: De/reconstructing the IF Brand, Futures 42(2) 125-133. • Ted Fuller & Krista Loogma (2009) Constructing Futures: A Social Constructionist Perspective on Foresight Methodology, Futures, 41 71-79. • Max Haiven & Alex Khasnabish (2014) The Radical Imagination: Social Movement Research in the Age of Austerity, Zed Books. • Jeff Meyerhoff (2010) Bald Ambition: A Critique for Wilber’s Theory of Everything, Inside the Curtain Press. • Martin Rhisiart, Riel Miller & Simon Brooks (2015) Learning to Use the Future: Developing Foresight Capabilities Through Scenario Processes, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101(1) 124-133. • Richard Slaughter (2004) Futures Beyond Dystopia, Routledge. • Ken Wilber (2000) A Theory of Everything, Shambhala.

Human-Centered Futures: The Design Futures Workshop

Dr Cindy Frewen University of Houston Frewen Architects Inc

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The future has arrived, it’s just not evenly distributed yet.

William Gibson NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

Ilus W. Davis Park City of Kansas City MO Frewen Architects, Inc

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Copenhagen 1970s Congestion

Jan Gehl, Cities for People

A HUMAN-CENTERED CITY Copenhagen - Most Livable City 37% use bicycles 27% drive cars 33% use public transit 5% walk

Jan Gehl, Cities for People

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SEOUL 1976

DR CINDY FREWEN

Seoul, S Korea Reconnecting people & nature Gizmodo.com DR CINDY FREWEN

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SAN LUIS OBISPO, CA 1970S Conventional Development DR CINDY FREWEN

Well Being San Luis Obispo, CA Happiest City in America

DR CINDY FREWEN

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Design Futures . . . marries the design process with futures thinking in order to create alternative tangible futures.

DESIGNERS + FUTURISTS Make the future Imagine futures Closed system Open systems Particular focus Multi-dimensional Control uncertainty Explore uncertainty

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Design Fictions

“an approach to design that speculates about new ideas through prototyping and storytelling.”

BRUCE STERLING

Design Futures

Marries the design process with futures thinking in order to create alternative tangible* futures *creative, holistic, visual , experiential

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Design Futures Approach . . .

1. Blends Design Methods and Foresight Methods; 2. Thinks beyond normal Business As Usual to imagine transformational futures; 3. Engages people across fields and interest groups to imagine alternative tangible futures; and 4. Synthesizes technology, environment, economics, and people to create human-centered futures.

Design process

Ideo, Tim Brown

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Design Futures Applications Things Actions

Places Organizations iepwrdkwapoecagr fiagtcm a Paolo green stream park,linear charger, phone afrigadget.com; Sau Bikepowered kiwia inhabitat.com;P.A.P.A. LabNigeria, Lagos papaplatform.com

Design Futures Charrette

Pearl Street Triangle, Dumbo, Brooklyn, New York City nytimes

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Traditionally: • A charrette is an intensive planning session where citizens, designers and others collaborate on a vision. • It provides a forum for ideas and offers the unique advantage of giving immediate feedback to the designers. • More importantly, it allows everyone who participates to be a mutual author of the plan.

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Design Futures Charrette:

• Begins with futures framing and analysis ….

• Up to the point of alternative futures. Then….

Design Futures Charrette 1. Diverge 2. Converge (converge, converge) 3. Communicate

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Design Charrettes can be run…

• As a mini-charrette during anticipation phase. • As a later multi-day charrette during transformation phase.

Marconi Express People Mover Bologna, Italy, Opens 2019

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Van Alstyne, G. (2010). How we learn to pluralize the future: Foresight Scenarios as Design Thinking, In Creating Desired Futures: On the Relevance of Design in Solving Complex Business Problems. Ed. Michael Shamiyeh.

Kelliher, A. & Byrne, D. (2015). Design futures in action: Documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences, Futures 70, 36-47.

Raford, N. (2012). Design fiction to experiential futures. Curry, A. Ed., The Future of Futures, Association of Professional Futures

Resnick, J. (2011). Materialization of the speculative in foresight and design. For Masters of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation, OCAD University

Sterling, B. (11 Oct 2013). Patently untrue: Fleshy defibrillators and synchronized baseball are changing the future, Wired

Candy, S. & Dunagan, J. (2017). Designing an experiential scenario: The People Who Vanished. Futures 86, 136-153

• Causal Layered Analysis Game

A Game for You

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Causal Layered Analysis and the CLA Game Sohail Inaytuallah, Metafuture

Sohail Inayatullah, Causal Layered Analysis (2008) Futures, 38(8): 815-829.

Sohail Inayatullah, Causal Layered Analysis: An Integrative and Transformative Theory and Method (2009) in Futures Research Methodology, 3rd ed, Millennium Project, Washington DC.

Sohail Inayatullah (ed.) The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology (2004/2015), Taipei: Tamkang University Press.

Sohail Inayatullah (ed) (2015) What Works: Case Studies in the Practice of Foresight, Taipei: Tamkang University Press.

Causal Layered Analysis CLA) Time Scale of Change The “Litany”: official public description of observational issues: events, trends, diagnosed Continuous Problem problems, media spin, opinions, policy; visible and audible; unconnected (scanning)

Social Science Analysis: Short-term historical facts Years Causes start connecting; systems analysis, feedback Social, Economic, interconnections, technical explanations, social Cultural analysis, policy analysis (systems)

Worldview/ Discourse Analysis: culture, values, language, Decades postmodernisms, spiral dynamics memes Discourse (stakeholders)

Metaphors & Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Lifetime Jungian archetypes, ancient bedrock Myths stories, gut level responses, emotional responses, visual images (visioning)

Modified Illustration, based on S. Inayatullah 2013 46

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Human-centred Anticipation using CLA

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Higher Education 2037

• Divide people in the room into four groups: 1. Litany – newspaper headlines 2. Systems – types of systems involved (eg generations, technology, economy) 3. Worldviews/Discourse – types of stakeholders 4. Myths/Metaphors – images/stories

Worldview/ Discourse Analysis: culture, values, language, Decades postmodernisms, spiral dynamics memes Discourse (stakeholders)

Metaphors & Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Lifetime Jungian archetypes, ancient bedrock Myths stories, gut level responses, emotional responses, visual images (visioning)

Modified Illustration, based on S. Inayatullah 2013 50

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Sample Headlines

Social 5 year old awarded PhD

Technology First robot appointed Chancellor of Phoenix University

Economic Last university closes

Environmental Sea-steading universities add 100th campus

Political Harvard University buys Russian Arctic Territory

• Questions • Comments • Reflections

Closing discussion

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Cindy Frewen: [email protected]

Bridgette Engeler: [email protected]

Maree Conway: [email protected]