Teacher's Guide, Nuclear Tipping Point
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Nuclear Deterrence in the Information Age?
SUMMER 2012 Vol. 6, No. 2 Commentary Our Brick Moon William H. Gerstenmaier Chasing Its Tail: Nuclear Deterrence in the Information Age? Stephen J. Cimbala Fiscal Fetters: The Economic Imperatives of National Security in a Time of Austerity Mark Duckenfield Summer 2012 Summer US Extended Deterrence: How Much Strategic Force Is Too Little? David J. Trachtenberg The Common Sense of Small Nuclear Arsenals James Wood Forsyth Jr. Forging an Indian Partnership Capt Craig H. Neuman II, USAF Chief of Staff, US Air Force Gen Norton A. Schwartz Mission Statement Commander, Air Education and Training Command Strategic Studies Quarterly (SSQ) is the senior United States Air Force– Gen Edward A. Rice Jr. sponsored journal fostering intellectual enrichment for national and Commander and President, Air University international security professionals. SSQ provides a forum for critically Lt Gen David S. Fadok examining, informing, and debating national and international security Director, Air Force Research Institute matters. Contributions to SSQ will explore strategic issues of current and Gen John A. Shaud, PhD, USAF, Retired continuing interest to the US Air Force, the larger defense community, and our international partners. Editorial Staff Col W. Michael Guillot, USAF, Retired, Editor CAPT Jerry L. Gantt, USNR, Retired, Content Editor Disclaimer Nedra O. Looney, Prepress Production Manager Betty R. Littlejohn, Editorial Assistant The views and opinions expressed or implied in the SSQ are those of the Sherry C. Terrell, Editorial Assistant authors and should not be construed as carrying the official sanction of Daniel M. Armstrong, Illustrator the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, Air Education Editorial Advisors and Training Command, Air University, or other agencies or depart- Gen John A. -
Working Paper: Do Not Cite Or Circulate Without Permission
THE COPENHAGEN TEMPTATION: RETHINKING PREVENTION AND PROLIFERATION IN THE AGE OF DETERRENCE DOMINANCE Francis J. Gavin Mira Rapp-Hooper What price should the United States – or any leading power – be willing to pay to prevent nuclear proliferation? For most realists, who believe nuclear weapons possess largely defensive qualities, the price should be small indeed. While additional nuclear states might not be welcomed, their appearance should not be cause for undue alarm. Such equanimity would be especially warrantedWORKING if the state in question PAPER: lacked DO other attributesNOT CITE of power. OR Nuclear acquisition should certainly notCIRCULATE trigger thoughts of WITHOUT preventive militar PERMISSIONy action, a phenomena typically associated with dramatic shifts in the balance of power. The historical record, however, tells a different story. Throughout the nuclear age and despite dramatic changes in the international system, the United States has time and again considered aggressive policies, including the use of force, to prevent the emergence of nuclear capabilities by friend and foe alike. What is even more surprising is how often this temptation has been oriented against what might be called “feeble” states, unable to project other forms of power. The evidence also reveals that the reasons driving this preventive thinking often had more to do with concerns over the systemic consequences of nuclear proliferation, and not, as we might expect, the dyadic relationship between the United States and the proliferator. Factors 1 typically associated with preventive motivations, such as a shift in the balance of power or the ideological nature of the regime in question, were largely absent in high-level deliberations. -
1 the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training Foreign Affairs
The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training Foreign Affairs Oral History Project LAURENCE H. SILBERMAN Interviewed by: Charles Stuart Kennedy Initial interview date: September 23, 1998 Copyright 2000 ADST TABLE OF CONTENTS Background Born and raised in Pennsylvania and New Jersey Dartmouth College; Harvard Law School World War II influence McCarthy and communism President Eisenhower’s anti-McCarthy speech U.S. Army reserve Derek Bok influence Harvard politics Political views Hawaii - Private Law Practice 1961-1967 Labor law Union organizations Harry Bridges Senator Hiram Fong Republican Party Vietnam War sentiment Department of Labor - NLRB 1967-1969 Appellate lawyer Solicitor of Labor (General Counsel) Labor management affairs Department of Labor - Under Secretary 1970-1973 Nixon administration Secretary of Labor George Shultz Kissinger-Shultz comparison Nixon involvement Ehrlichman White House influence Unions’ political orientation George McGovern 1 Deputy Attorney General 1973-1975 Saturday Night Massacre Archibald Cox Yugoslavia - Ambassador 1975-1977 Recalling 1969-1970 ILO Geneva Conference U.S. unions anti-communism George Meany Lane Kirkland “Towards Presidential Control of the State Department” “Europe’s Fiddler on the Roof” Tito and tactics Soviet-West power struggle World War II fears Internal debate on Yugoslavia Kissinger views of USSR future U.S. ambassador’s 1974-1975 meeting Sonnenfeldt Doctrine Foreign Service officer (FSO) attitude towards political appointees Mack Toon Embassy friction DCM problems CODELs Understanding -
Assuring South Korea and Japan As the Role and Number of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Are Reduced
Assuring South Korea and Japan as the Role and Number of U.S. Nuclear Weapons are Reduced Michael H. Keifer, Project Manager Advanced Systems and Concepts Office Defense Threat Reduction Agency Prepared by Kurt Guthe Thomas Scheber National Institute for Public Policy January 2011 The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Department of Defense, or the United States Government. This report is approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office Report Number ASCO 2011 003 Contract Number MIPR 10-2621M The mission of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) is to safeguard America and its allies from weapons of mass destruction (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high explosives) by providing capabilities to reduce, eliminate, and counter the threat, and mitigate its effects. The Advanced Systems and Concepts Office (ASCO) supports this mission by providing long-term rolling horizon perspectives to help DTRA leadership identify, plan, and persuasively communicate what is needed in the near term to achieve the longer-term goals inherent in the agency’s mission. ASCO also emphasizes the identification, integration, and further development of leading strategic thinking and analysis on the most intractable problems related to combating weapons of mass destruction. For further information on this project, or on ASCO’s broader research program, please contact: Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 8725 John J. Kingman Road Ft. Belvoir, VA 22060-6201 [email protected] Table of Contents Introduction...................................................................................................................... -
Jihadists and Nuclear Weapons
VERSION: Charles P. Blair, “Jihadists and Nuclear Weapons,” in Gary Ackerman and Jeremy Tamsett, eds., Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Growing Threat (New York: Taylor and Francis, 2009), pp. 193-238. c h a p t e r 8 Jihadists and Nuclear Weapons Charles P. Blair CONTENTS Introduction 193 Improvised Nuclear Devices (INDs) 195 Fissile Materials 198 Weapons-Grade Uranium and Plutonium 199 Likely IND Construction 203 External Procurement of Intact Nuclear Weapons 204 State Acquisition of an Intact Nuclear Weapon 204 Nuclear Black Market 212 Incidents of Jihadist Interest in Nuclear Weapons and Weapons-Grade Nuclear Materials 213 Al-Qa‘ida 213 Russia’s Chechen-Led Jihadists 214 Nuclear-Related Threats and Attacks in India and Pakistan 215 Overall Likelihood of Jihadists Obtaining Nuclear Capability 215 Notes 216 Appendix: Toward a Nuclear Weapon: Principles of Nuclear Energy 232 Discovery of Radioactive Materials 232 Divisibility of the Atom 232 Atomic Nucleus 233 Discovery of Neutrons: A Pathway to the Nucleus 233 Fission 234 Chain Reactions 235 Notes 236 INTRODUCTION On December 1, 2001, CIA Director George Tenet made a hastily planned, clandestine trip to Pakistan. Tenet arrived in Islamabad deeply shaken by the news that less than three months earlier—just weeks before the attacks of September 11, 2001—al-Qa‘ida and Taliban leaders had met with two former Pakistani nuclear weapon scientists in a joint quest to acquire nuclear weapons. Captured documents the scientists abandoned as 193 AU6964.indb 193 12/16/08 5:44:39 PM 194 Charles P. Blair they fled Kabul from advancing anti-Taliban forces were evidence, in the minds of top U.S. -
Jill Hruby Named Labs Director Paul Hommert Steps Down After Five Years As Director; Formal Leadership Transition to Occur July 17
Jill Hruby named Labs director Paul Hommert steps down after five years as director; formal leadership transition to occur July 17 By Jim Danneskiold ill M. Hruby has been named the next president and director of Sandia National Laboratories, the J country’s largest national lab. She will be the first woman to lead a national security laboratory when she steps into her new role July 17. A Sandia staff member and manager for the past 32 years, Jill most recently A conversation with Sandia served as VP of Energy, Corp. Board of Directors Nonproliferation, and Chairman Rick Ambrose. High-Consequence Secu- See page 5 rity Div. 6000 and head of Sandia’s International, Homeland, and Nuclear Security Program Management Unit. She will be the first woman to lead any of the three DOE/NNSA national security labs — Sandia, Los Alamos, and Lawrence Livermore national laboratories. She succeeds Paul Hommert, who is retiring July 16 after serving as Sandia president and Laboratories director since 2010. Jill’s appointment was announced to the Sandia workforce Monday morning by Rick Ambrose, who (Continued on page 4) JILL HRUBY, who this week was announced as Paul Hommert’s successor as Sandia president and Laboratories director, greets Sandians during her first Labs-wide all-hands meeting. She offi- cially assumes her new role on July 17. (Photo by Randy Montoya) Historic Trinity test was 70 years ago Vol. 66, No. 12 June 26, 2015 Many future Sandians involved. See pages 6-7 Managed by Sandia Corporation for the National Nuclear Security Administration Inside Sandia’s tamper-detecting SecuritySeal technology is tough to fool ALWAYS/NEVER documentary available. -
Strategic Posture Commission
Perry and Schlesinger and Perry America’s Strategic Posture Americ a’s ow to secure the nuclear peace remains one of the most profound questions of the modern era. Twenty years after the end of the Cold War Hand with the arrival of a new administration in Washington, it is time to think through fundamental questions about the purposes of nuclear deterrence Strategic and the character of the U.S. strategic posture. While the existential threat to the United States has decreased, the rising threat of catastrophic terrorism, the possession and spread of nuclear weapons by other states, and a general worldwide nuclear renaissance continue to influence decisions about America’s Posture strategic posture. Recognizing the changing character of these threats, Congress formed a The Final Report of the commission in 2008 to examine the United States’ long-term strategic posture and make recommendations. For more than eleven months this bipartisan Congressional Commission commission of leading experts on national security, arms control, and nuclear America’s Strategic Posture technology met with Congressional leaders, military officers, high-level officials of several countries, arms control groups, and technical experts to assess the on the Strategic Posture appropriate roles for nuclear weapons, nonproliferation programs, and missile defenses. This official edition contains a discussion of key questions and issues of the United States as well as the Commission’s findings and recommendations for tailoring U.S. strategic posture to new and emerging requirements -
Nuclear Scholars Initiative a Collection of Papers from the 2013 Nuclear Scholars Initiative
Nuclear Scholars Initiative A Collection of Papers from the 2013 Nuclear Scholars Initiative EDITOR Sarah Weiner JANUARY 2014 Nuclear Scholars Initiative A Collection of Papers from the 2013 Nuclear Scholars Initiative EDITOR Sarah Weiner AUTHORS Isabelle Anstey David K. Lartonoix Lee Aversano Adam Mount Jessica Bufford Mira Rapp-Hooper Nilsu Goren Alicia L. Swift Jana Honkova David Thomas Graham W. Jenkins Timothy J. Westmyer Phyllis Ko Craig J. Wiener Rizwan Ladha Lauren Wilson Jarret M. Lafl eur January 2014 ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has developed solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. As we celebrate this milestone, CSIS scholars are developing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofi t or ga ni za tion headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affi liated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to fi nding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn has chaired the CSIS Board of Trustees since 1999. -
Scott D. Sagan
SCOTT D. SAGAN CURRICULUM VITAE February 2021 OFFICE ADDRESS: CISAC Encina Hall Room E217 616 Serra Street Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-6165 (650) 725-2715 [email protected] CURRENT POSITIONS Caroline S.G. Munro Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University. Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, Stanford University. Senior Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University. EMPLOYMENT HISTORY Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 2001 – Present. Co-director, Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University, 1998-2011. Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 1995-2001. Vice-Chairman, Department of Political Science, 1996-1999. Chairman, International Relations Program, Stanford University, 1995-1997. Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 1987-1995. Lecturer, Department of Government, Harvard University, 1986-1987. Consultant, Strategic Nuclear Policy Branch, Nuclear and Chemical Division, Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1985-1986. 1 Research Fellow, The Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1985-1986. Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow, Special Assistant to the Director and Staff Officer, Nuclear/Chemical Division, Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1984-1985. Postdoctoral Fellow, The Avoiding Nuclear War Project, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, 1983-84. EDUCATION Harvard University, Ph.D. (Political Science) 1983. Thesis: “Deterrence and Decision: An Historical Critique of Modern Deterrence Theory.” Winner of the American Political Science Association's 1983 Helen Dwight Reid Award for the best doctoral dissertation in international relations, law and politics. Oberlin College, B.A. with High Honors (Government) 1977. -
Speakers 4 July–30 July 2004
2004 Summer Seminar Speakers 4 July–30 July 2004 About the Speakers Organizers Steve Koonin James Larrimore Kory Budlong-Sylvester Ron Lehman Robert Powell Steven A. Maaranen Susan Shirk Michael May Kathleen McInnis Speakers Patrick M. Morgan Michael Cornwall Michael Nacht Zachary Davis Per Peterson Richard Garwin Joseph Pilat Charles Glaser Scott Sagan Sigfried S. Hecker Lawrence Scheinman Corey Hinderstein John Scott Michael D. Intriligator Dean Wilkening Kent Johnson Herbert York Feroz Khan Kory Budlong-Sylvester is the IGCC Steering Committee representative from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Budlong-Sylvester is a technical staff member in the Nonproliferation and International Security Division at LANL. He works on a variety of nonproliferation and arms control topics. He is currently LANL's principal investigator for a multi-laboratory project that supports the International Atomic Energy Agency in the area of integrated safeguards. Budlong-Sylvester received his Ph.D. from the Nuclear Engineering Department at MIT in 1997. John M. Cornwall is a professor of physics at UCLA, where he has been since 1965. He came to UCLA from the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey. He is also a professor of Science and Technology Policy at the RAND Graduate School in Santa Monica. His current physics interests are elementary particle theory (quantum chromodynamics; early universe). He is a member of the Jason group, as well as of various U.S. government advisory committees. He has consulted and published widely on ballistic missile defense, space-based radar, space physics, and many other subjects. He is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a former Alfred P. -
Honorable Laurence H. Silberman
HONORABLE LAURENCE H. SILBERMAN Oral History Project The Historical Society of the District of Columbia Circuit Oral History Project U n i t e d S t a t e s C o u r t s The Historical Society of the D i s t r i c t o f C olumbia Circuit District of Columbia Circuit Honorable Laurence H. Silberman Interviews conducted by: Raymond J. Rasenberger, Esquire June 26, September 26, and December 13, 2001 January 25 and February 6, 2002 January 23 and February 4, 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface . i Oral History Agreements Honorable Laurence H. Silberman Agreement. iii Authorization. v Raymond J. Rasenberger, Esq. vi Oral History Transcript of Interviews on: June 26, 2001 . 1 September 26, 2001 . 40 December 13, 2001 . 69 January 25, 2002 . 117 February 6, 2002 . 164 January 23, 2008 . 238 February 4, 2008 . 263 Index . A-1 Table of Cases and Statutes . A-22 Biographical Sketches Honorable Laurence H. Silberman . B-1 Raymond J. Rasenberger, Esq. B-3 Appendix I . C-1 The Origin of Affirmative Action as We Know It–The Philadelphia Plan Pivot, by Judge Silberman, October 10, 2001. Appendix II . D-1 “Will Lawyering Strangle Democratic Capitalism: a Retrospective,” by Judge Silberman, March 30, 2000. Appendix III . E-1 On the Twenty-Fifth Anniversary of the Saturday Night Massacre, by Judge Silberman, June 24, 1999. Appendix IV . F-1 “Judge Silberman’s response to David Brock’s book,” Michael Barone Blog, August 18, 2006 NOTE The following pages record interviews conducted on the dates indicated. The interviews were electronically recorded, and the transcription was subsequently reviewed and edited by the interviewee. -
10. Internationalizing the Nuclear Fuel Cycle James E. Goodby
10. Internationalizing the Nuclear Fuel Cycle James E. Goodby Summary: Where We Are Right Now The Bush administration has tried to persuade the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) not to sell technology and equipment for enrichment and reprocessing to any state that does not already possess full-scale, functioning plants of this type. The proposal was rejected, even by close friends of the United States. The United States is now trying to accommodate its policy to a “criteria-based” approach proposed by France and other NSG members. Efforts to block the spread of en- richment and reprocessing capabilities have fallen short for four main reasons: (1) access to the base technologies required for entry into the field is relatively easy; (2) several states were determined to acquire their own enrichment and/or reprocessing capabilities for various rea- sons, e.g., to reduce energy dependence, conserve energy resources, or to manage nuclear wastes; (3) no combination of incentives and threats short of military action have sufficed to dissuade nations intent on acquiring a nuclear weapons capability from exploiting these tech- nologies; and (4) many nations that have no current intention of build- ing nuclear weapons and no special animosity toward the United I acknowledge, with thanks, the invaluable help that many people gave me in writing this paper. They include Chaim Braun, Sidney Drell, Amitai Etzioni, Mark Fitzpatrick, Geoffrey Forden, Charles Forsberg, Subrata Ghoshroy, Daryl Kimball, Pierre Gold- schmidt, Laura Holgate, Fred McGoldrick, Marvin Miller, Pavel Podvig, Burton Rich- ter, Geoffrey Rothwell, Harry Rowen, Larry Scheinman, Andy Semmel, George Shultz, Jim Timbie, and Frank von Hippel.