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Premier Vision May 2017 Contents

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Premier Vision May 2017 Contents Premier Vision May 2017 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Feature: South Korean Tourists Increasingly Venturing into Europe 07 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 08 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 10 Currency Trends 12 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 14 France 15 United Kingdom 16 Italy 17 Spain 18 Germany 19 Singapore 20 Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free | 02 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary – May 2017 +25% +19% +5% +13% Total Sales Total Vouchers Total ATV Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrivals Tax Free Sales Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrivals Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) FRA +26% +15% +9% +8% CHN +34% +27% +5% +31% GBR +38% +38% -0% +13% USA +37% +14% +20% +16% ITA +25% +23% +2% +8% RUS +22% +36% -10% +33% ESP +27% +15% +10% +21% KOR +71% +63% +5% +17% DEU +14% +11% +3% +16% HKG +59% +55% +2% +29% Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free | 03 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary – Year to Date +21% +16% +5% +12% Total Sales Total Vouchers Total ATV Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrivals Tax Free Sales Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrivals Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) FRA +20% +5% +15% +13% CHN +32% +24% +6% +18% GBR +35% +31% +3% +13% RUS +14% +39% -18% +19% ITA +26% +27% -1% +9% USA +30% +15% +13% +18% ESP +22% +11% +9% +19% HKG +63% +35% +21% +14% DEU +7% +3% +3% +5% TWN +52% +48% +3% +14% Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free | 04 Tax Free Sales: Overview & Source Market Trends – May 2017 Overview BRIC and ‘Next-11’ nations provide Dragon Boat Festival provides platform for strong gains in May tourism boost with 31% increase Tax Free Shopping sales gained significant momentum in May, with sales growth of 25% representing the in China arrivals in May Sales to BRIC nations saw growth of 31% in May following highest gains seen since July 2015, where the first the 33% growth in sales to these tourists in April, and the half of 2015 saw significant gains in Tax Free Shopping The China National Tourism Administration 29% increase in Q1 2017. Sales to Russian and Indian sales. Furthermore, the transaction growth of 19%, was (CNTA) reported that Chinese tourists made 2.71 million tourists saw gains of 22% whilst sales to Chinese and higher than seen at any point in 2015, whilst Average outbound trips during the three day Dragon Boat Festival Brazilian tourists increased by 35%, and with the BRIC Transaction Values also continued to see gains with between 28-30th May, with the most popular overseas nations representing 38% of tourist sales on a YTD basis, growth of 5% in the month. destinations including Russia, Thailand, Italy, Vietnam and this provided the platform for the significant gains seen in France. the month. Whilst all major destination markets saw continued momentum, growth in the month was further boosted This public holiday saw Chinese tourist arrivals increase The ‘Next-11’ was the term coined by Goldman Sachs with a return to double-digit growth in Germany and by 31% to the main European destinations, and also saw for the next group of countries, along with the BRIC France, following the 1% decline and 7% growth, significant gains in tourists from Hong Kong and Taiwan, nations, that would have the potential to rank amongst respectively, in the prior month. with growth of 29% and 48%, respectively. These were the world’s largest economies in the 21st century, with also boosted by national holidays for Labour day and the this list comprising of Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, On year to date basis, sales have increased by 21%, with Buddha’s birthday at the start of the month. Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, South gains spread across a diverse range of destination and Korea and Vietnam. source markets. Whilst the timing of this three day event will also likely manifest in a boost to sales in June, as a result of the Tax Free sales to this group of nations saw growth of 29% timing of the festival running from 9-11th June in 2016, in May, with sales to tourists from Mexico, the Philippines arrivals numbers are predicted to fall by a modest and Pakistan evidencing gains of 30%+, whilst sales to 4% in June 2017. However, the timing of the end of Vietnamese tourists saw growth of 58%. However, these Ramadan in June, is expected to more than adequately gains were eclipsed by the 72% growth in sales to South compensate for the predicted fall in Chinese tourists, Korean tourists, which saw these tourists elevated to 4th with 57% growth expected for tourists from GCC position in top ranking nationalities in the month. nations. Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free | 05 Tax Free Sales: Destination Market Trends – May 2017 UK and France post strong gains, Sales in Southern European itself as the safe European destination of choice with reports from China News Service highlighting the but recent terror attacks suggest destinations continue to bask in secondment of Chinese police officers to work with cautious optimism prevails increasing tourism Italian police in scenic spots in Rome, Milan, Florence and Naples over the summer period, to help deter crimes Sales growth in France and the UK continued the Whilst Spain has continued to be the bastion for against Chinese tourists. This follows the signing of a positive trajectory seen in recent months, with gains increasing tourism and sales in recent years, providing Memorandum of Understanding between the of 26% and 38%, respectively. Whilst these gains the European antidote for aversion to travel to terror hit nations’ security forces in June 2014. ostensibly represent ongoing confidence to travel to European destinations, arrivals and sales to other major these destinations, with increasing numbers of tourists Southern European destinations are have also surged in reported in London & Paris, a degree of cautious popularity and attractiveness in 2017. optimism should be maintained. Although sales across all European destinations saw The context for the gains in May are that sales declined double-digit gains in May, sales in Southern European by 25% and 6% in France and the UK, respectively in destinations such as Greece and Portugal saw growth May 2016, thereby distorting growth comparisons. of 35% and 50%, respectively in May. Additionally, Additionally, whilst the reaction to the Westminster whilst Spain continues to benefit as a major European and Champs Elysees attacks were relatively muted, it is destination, Italy has exhibited particularly strong gains too early to qualify the effect of more recent attacks in in 2017 and is increasingly emerging as the destination Manchester, London Bridge and Notre Dame. Although of choice in 2017. Italy has increasingly positioned early indications on the effect of the Manchester attack suggested limited impact, this could be compounded by more recent events. Furthermore, growth comparisons in the UK will inherently be likely to be tempered somewhat in the coming months, based on the anniversary of the referendum outcome in June and subsequent devaluation of Sterling, and therefore delineating this from the effect of terror attacks will inherently be fraught with difficulty. Premier Vision May 2017 Feature: South Korean Tourists Increasingly Venturing into Europe Over the past four decades, South Korea Outbound Departures Growth: alternative destinations such as Europe and Japan, notwithstanding the Asian financial April 2017 increased by 76%+ in April 2017, commensurate with April 2016 Arrivals April 2017 Arrivals a 58% decline in tourism to China. Furthermore, as crisis of 1997-98, South Korea has reported by Hanatour, the largest travel agency in 3,529 South Korea, outbound travel to Europe increased witnessed sustained economic growth, AMERICAS | +19% 3,866 by 31% in May 2017. referred to as an economic miracle by 7,088 EUROPE | +76% some commentators, resulting in a 12,466 The sustained economic growth of South Korea has not 34,536 only borne witness to almost uninterrupted growth in major transformation into a high-tech CHINA | -58% 14,585 Tax Free shopping sales in Europe, but sales in May also industrialised economy, which has 35,552 saw the highest rate of growth to these tourists with S.E. ASIA | +47% elevated its status to become the 52,382 gains of 72%, and triple-digit gains seen in a number 40,449 of destination markets, which saw these tourists climb 11th largest economy in the world. JAPAN | +77% 71,567 to the 4th most important nationality in May. With the Korea Tourism Organisation suggesting that increasingly South Korea Tax Free Shopping Sales Growth: competitive airfares means increasing numbers of This increasing prosperity has been concomitant with May 2017 individuals are opting for overseas travel, coupled increasing outbound tourism, with the Korea Tourism with a strengthening Korean Won versus the Organisation predicting that outbound tourism will Euro, suggests tourism from South Korea DEU | +101% increase by 30% in 2017. However, amid recent political will continue to gain prominence for tensions with China, with the Chinese authorities deterring European retailers. Chinese nationals from visiting South Korea, there has GBR | +192% been a reciprocal reduction in tourism from South Korea to China. Although there are signals of these tensions FRA | +58% easing, not least due to the recent election of the new president in South Korea, this has served to not only increase Chinese tourism to Europe, but has also given ITA | +60% rise to an explosion in South Korean tourism to Europe.
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