Premier Vision August 2017 Contents
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Premier Vision August 2017 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends 05 Feature: Chinese Tourist Survey 07 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 08 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 10 Currency Trends 12 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 14 France 15 United Kingdom 16 Italy 17 Spain 18 Germany 19 Singapore 20 Premier Vision August 2017 Premier Tax Free | 02 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary – August 2017 +5% +7% -2% +16% Total Tax Free Total Vouchers Total Avg. Transaction Total Arrivals Sales Turnover / Transactions Values (ATV) Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrivals Tax Free Sales Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrivals Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) FRA +6% -1% +7% +20% CHN +11% +13% -1% +10% GBR -9% +5% -14% +13% USA +10% +3% +6% +24% ITA +18% +17% +1% +12% RUS -2% +19% -18% +25% ESP +15% +10% +5% +20% UAE +4% +2% +2% +27% DEU +0% +6% -5% +13% HKG +0% +1% -1% +4% Premier Vision August 2017 Premier Tax Free | 03 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary – Year to Date +16% +14% +2% +12% Total Tax Free Total Vouchers Total Avg. Transaction Total Arrivals Sales Turnover / Transactions Values (ATV) Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrivals Tax Free Sales Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrivals Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) FRA +15% +4% +10% +13% CHN +24% +21% +2% +14% GBR +19% +24% -5% +12% USA +21% +10% +11% +17% ITA +24% +23% +1% +9% RUS +12% +32% -15% +20% ESP +22% +14% +8% +18% HKG +40% +23% +14% +8% DEU +4% +2% +2% +6% TWN +43% +43% -0% +10% Premier Vision August 2017 Premier Tax Free | 04 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends Overview Gains in Italy continue to 1 in 2 Chinese nationals set to set the pace for the main be on the move for Chinese The rate of gains in Tax Free Shopping sales slowed considerably in August, but only when compared to destination markets Golden Week the significant double-digit increases seen throughout 2017 thus far. Sales in Italy have increased by 24% on a year to date With half the Chinese population forecast to travel over basis, and increased by 18% in August 2017, with both the 1st to 8th October Golden Week holiday period, The 5% increase in sales in the month was supported by of these rates of growth representing the highest approximately 6 million are expected to travel abroad. a 7% increase in transactions, which ostensibly suggests increases amongst the main destination markets. continued momentum based on the over-arching macro Reports from the China Tourism Academy and Ctrip trends and events, including; continued weakness in oil This renaissance follows a challenging 2016, and has highlight that overseas travellers are looking for prices, the Qatar blockade, the recent terror attack in been broad based in nature, both from a source market increasingly diverse destinations during this holiday Barcelona, the anniversary of the hyper growth in sales in and city perspective. In terms of source markets, seven period, with popular TV shows such as Game of Thrones the UK following the depreciation in the value of sterling, of the top ten nationalities have seen double-digit gains providing a new pull for tourism. Croatia is expected to and the recent softness in the value of the US Dollar. on a year to date, with some of the most significant see a 300% increase in tourists, whilst there is also strong gains derived from Chinese and South Korean tourists, growth in other locations the series was filmed such as Whilst the propensity for gains will likely continue to be experiencing gains of 35% and 43%, respectively. The the Czech Republic, Iceland, Spain and Northern Ireland. somewhat hindered as a result of these broader factors, top 10 cities in Italy have all seen double-digit gains on a we remain cautiously optimistic on the prospects for the year to date basis, with the top 3 cities of Milan, Rome The projections for arrival numbers to the main European remainder of 2017, with leading indicators suggesting & Florence all seeing gains of 23% plus. destination markets suggest Chinese arrivals will continued growth into September, and the arrivals increase by approximately 8% in October, with double- outlook currently suggests a boost in numbers for the The prospects for 2017 as a whole therefore look digit gains predicted for France, Italy and Spain. A recent upcoming Golden Week period. extremely positive, with arrivals outlook suggesting survey commissioned by Premier Tax Free in early 11% growth between September and November, and August confirms the increasing attraction for alternative crucially, Italy is also set to be the main beneficiary of destinations. Aside from the primary destinations, increased arrivals for the Golden Week and harvest respondents that intended to travel to Europe within festival vacations for Chinese and South Korean the next six months, highlighted that ‘Other’ Western tourists in October, with predicted gains of 17.7% Europe and Eastern European countries were increasing and 56.4%, respectively. in popularity. See page 7 for more details. Premier Vision August 2017 Premier Tax Free | 05 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends (continued) South Korean harvest festival ‘Trump Slump’ is confirmed; the ban applied to but other parts of the world as well.” holiday to provide further boost potentially provides further This confirmation in the fall in tourism to the US has likely to retailers boost to European travel been a contributory factor in the increase in arrivals to the main European destinations this year, and Whilst all eyes and attention are focused on the A revised report by the U.S. Travel Association (USTA) with the potential trade restrictions with upcoming Chinese Golden Week, the first week of revealed that international tourism to the US has China, this trend could continue as October also marks the lunar calendar aligned and week declined in the year so far, contrary to earlier reports of tourists look for alternative long, harvest festival holiday for South Koreans, also consistent growth. Many tourism experts believe that destination choices. known as Chuseok. the decline is due to policies regarding outsiders coming into the United States in particular, and not least the Furthermore, following tumultuous recent times that has proposed ban on the seven Muslim majority countries seen the country endure a major corruption scandal that (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen), leading brought down its president, as well as increasing tensions to commentators assigning this phenomenon as the with North Korea, the South Korean government is ‘Trump Slump’. allowing the country’s 51 million people to take an extra long holiday next month. The government has declared The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) Monday 2nd October as an additional holiday this year, in has also confirmed this fall in inbound tourism order to allow workers 10 consecutive days off. to the US, stating that; “The travel ban had an immediate impact on travel With almost uninterrupted gains in sales to these tourists bookings to the US…not just in recent years, this presents a significant opportunity for from the initial seven retailers, with these tourists increasingly diverting travel countries where intentions away from China, amid the missile crisis, and increasingly venturing into European destinations. This is further asserted with the current projections of arrival numbers predicting growth in excess of 50% in October, to the main European destination markets. Premier Vision August 2017 Feature: Chinese Tourist Survey Travelled in the last 12 months NORDICS 13% 13% Travelling in the next 6 months S.E. EUROPE 5% 5% In early August 2017, Premier Tax Free commissioned a survey on 200 Chinese nationals that had visited Europe in last 12 months, and a further 200 Chinese nationals E. EUROPE 3% 5% that intended to travel to Europe in the next six months. The survey results not only highlights the increasing GERMANY 14% 15% diversity in destination choice, but also increasing maturity in certain destinations outside of the main destination markets. For example, the Nordic countries attract more than double the numbers that travel to UNITED KINGDOM 14% 15% Spain/Portugal, and is almost equal to the numbers visiting the UK, Germany & Italy. OTHER W. EUROPE 6% 8% The survey also highlights the desire to visit a number of destinations as part of the vacation to Europe, as although a third of respondents visited only a single SPAIN / PORTUGAL 6% 6% country or region of those shown, the average number of countries or regions is 2.8, with the most popular combinations being FR, DE & UK, which is equal in FRANCE 22% 19% popularity to FR, DE, UK & IT. If you would like to see further output ITALY 15% 13% of this survey, please contact us at: [email protected] Premier Vision August 2017 Premier Tax Free | 07 Sales Performance – August 2017 By Destination By Source Market FRA +6.3% CHN +11.4% GBR -9.3% USA +9.8% ITA +18.2% RUS -1.6% ESP +15.1% UAE +3.6% DEU +0.0% HKG +0.0% SGP -12.7% KWT +2.8% AUT +34.0% SAU -9.8% IRL +4.2% KOR -0.2% CZE +31.8% TWN +26.8% PRT +23.3% QAT -19.5% Premier Vision August 2017 Premier Tax Free | 08 Sales Performance – Year to Date By Destination By Source Market FRA +14.6% CHN +24.0% GBR +18.6% USA +21.5% ITA +24.0% RUS +12.1% ESP +22.0% HKG +40.4% DEU +4.2% TWN +42.7% SGP -8.7% KOR +21.2% AUT +24.9% UAE +9.2% IRL +16.7% THA +5.3% CZE +42.4% IDN +15.5% PRT +43.9% KWT +5.5% Premier Vision August 2017 Premier Tax Free | 09 Top 5 Visitor Nations Per Destination Country – August 2017 Market Avg.