intelligence
October Report 2018 Contents
Tax Free Trends
Summary 03
Tax Free Sales Trends 05
Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 07
Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 09
Currency Trends 10
Arrivals Forecast
Europe Overview 13
France 14
United Kingdom 15
Italy 16
Spain 17
Germany 18
Austria 19
Finland 20
International Holiday Calendar 21
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 2 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - October 2018 Top 5 Destination Markets +5% Total Sales Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers
France +12% +4% +7% +5% United Kingdom -6% -12% +6% +7% Italy +11% +4% +8% +6% -2% Total Vouchers Spain -3% +12% -13% +6% Germany +0% -11% +12% -2%
Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers +7% Total ATV China +13% +1% +12% +2% USA +31% +12% +17% +16% Russia -22% -16% -8% -9% Taiwan +16% -9% +27% -7% +5% South Korea -1% -8% +8% -5% Total Arrivals
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 3 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - YTD Top 5 Destination Markets -2% Total Sales Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers
France +3% -3% +6% +5% United Kingdom -12% -12% +0% +3% Italy +6% +3% +3% +6% -7% Total Vouchers Spain -10% -10% +0% +1% Germany -4% -9% +5% -0%
Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Vouchers/ Avg. Transaction Arrival Sales Turnover Transaction Values (ATV) Numbers +6% Total ATV China +5% -5% +11% +3% USA +10% +2% +8% +6% Russia -19% -16% -3% -7% Hong Kong -9% -8% -1% +4% +3% Taiwan +9% -6% +15% +4% Total Arrivals
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 4 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends – October 2018
Overview Sales to Chinese tourists Following a period of modest decline in the last two months, posts strong gains despite Tax Free shopping sales in Europe regained momentum in October, recording a 5% year-on-year increase. currency fluctuations Sales in the month were boosted by the Chinese Golden Week The escalating US-China trade war is affecting much more than holiday, which saw a 13% increase in Tax Free sales to Chinese just business-to-business trade, with tourism between the tourists as well as significant growth in sales to American two nations also coming under strain. The first three quarters tourists. The continued strengthening of the US dollar against of 2018 have seen a 17% year-on-year decline in flight bookings the euro and pound is making Europe a much more attractive from China to the US, according to travel website Skyscanner. destination for American tourists, with Tax Free sales growing com. During the summer, the Chinese embassy warned its 31%: the highest of the top five source markets. citizens of the ‘dangers’ of travel to the US. Since then, this downward trend has continued at pace, with year-on-year Of the major destination markets, France posted the strongest bookings to the US down 42% for Golden Week. gains this month, with a 12% increase in sales compared with the same month in 2017. This increase marks the second month Conversely, in Europe Tax Free sales to Chinese tourists increased in a row that the country has shown strong positive growth, 13% year-on-year for the month of October. Although this was the following September’s sizeable 11% year-on-year second-highest rate of growth, in volume terms the sales increase sales increase. was the largest among all source markets in October. Golden Week 2018 led to an influx of Chinese tourists across the continent and their share of tourists in most countries rose Y/Y Sales Growth approximately 30%; higher than the respective year-to-date 2017 2018 30% figure for every country. Italy was a key destination and the Chinese share of Tax Free shoppers rose to 43% in October 25% versus 32% in year-to-date terms. 20% As the European Commission’s EU-China Tourism Year has
15% reportedly resulted in positive outcomes, many European countries are following suit by making concerted efforts to 10% attract high-net-worth visitors from China.
5% Tourist boards such as Fáilte Ireland – Ireland’s national tourism development authority – are encouraging retailers and attractions 0% to take practical measures such as introducing Chinese-language -5% signage and preferred Chinese payment methods. Coupled with the introduction of direct flights from China in June 2018, these -10% measures seem to be paying off, with Chinese Tax Free sales in JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Ireland growing by 20% in October.
October Report 2018 A younger, independent Chinese tourist emerges
Europe is witnessing a shift in the typical profile These young tourists are also adventurous and want a variety of its Chinese tourists. An increased number of of experiences while on holiday, including exploring the city Chinese visitors are now deciding to travel alone and nature, visiting museums and experiencing art, and or with family and friends, as opposed to with tour shopping. Yet while there is a widening interest in experiential groups – a travel method more traditionally seen. travel, shopping still plays a key part in the holiday plans of This trend is being driven by younger, more this demographic. According to UBS, Chinese consumers tech-savvy individuals who utilise services such typically intend to spend just under 20% of their disposable as WeChat to get ideas for their next destination, income on purchasing luxury goods; a figure that remains constant year on year. and Ctrip to make their bookings. Chinese millennials (Gen Y) are an important shopping When asked about their travel preferences, these younger demographic for European retailers, with almost €7 out shoppers prefer to plan their own trips and like to travel with of every €10 of Tax Free sales being attributed to these friends (89%) or alone (45%). These statistics differ vastly shoppers. And while experiences form an increasingly when compared to the proportion who liked to travel with prominent part of the travel itinerary, October’s figures in tour groups (11%). France and Italy demonstrate that shopping is still high on the agenda, with an average €1,518 per transaction. This is higher than any other age category with the exception of Generation Z. However, Gen Z tourists currently only represent 1% of total sales but are beginning to grow in prominence.
Who I like to travel with on holiday What I like to do on holiday Average transaction value - France and Italy
Others 1% Mainly staying in 17% €1,839
Meet new people 27% €1,518 Personalised tour groups 2% €1,441
Musical experience 33% Tour groups 11% €1,200 Cafes, bar restaurants 52% Cruise 13% Shopping 54% Family trip (self-planned) 24% Museums and art 60%
Travel alone (self-planned) 45% Explore nature 61%
Travel with friends (self-planned) 89% Explore the city 81% Baby Boomers Gen X Gen Y Gen Z
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 6 Sales Performance - October 2018
By Destination By Source Market
FRA +11.7% CHN +13.2%
GBR -6.1% USA +31.4%
ITA +11.4% RUS -22.5%
ESP -3.1% TWN +15.7%
DEU +0.1% KOR -0.5%
AUT +13.3% HKG -23.4%
CZE -9.9% SAU +40.4%
IRL +16.4% THA +12.7%
PRT -23.4% JPN +15.9%
GRC -5.2% KWT +3.2%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 7 Sales Performance - YTD
By Destination By Source Market
FRA +2.5% CHN +5.3%
GBR -11.8% USA +10.3%
ITA +6.5% RUS -18.5%
ESP -9.6% HKG -8.7%
DEU -4.3% TWN +8.7%
AUT +12.4% KOR -3.7%
IRL -0.4% UAE -10.0%
CZE -9.2% THA +1.0%
PRT -13.3% SAU -4.3%
CHE +9.0% KWT -10.3%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 8 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country – October 2018
Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 39% € 1,669 27% AUT CHINA 39% € 620 18% USA 10% € 1,353 46% TAIWAN 8% € 662 14% SOUTH KOREA 6% € 758 -9% SWITZERLAND 7% € 406 -1% TAIWAN 5% € 2,150 41% RUSSIA 6% € 427 -10% SAUDI ARABIA 5% € 4,543 197% THAILAND 5% € 605 100%
GBR CHINA 28% € 402 -9% CZE CHINA 34% € 283 -6% USA 8% € 410 11% TAIWAN 17% € 223 7% KUWAIT 5% € 364 1% RUSSIA 15% € 315 -35% HONG KONG 5% € 411 -2% SOUTH KOREA 7% € 183 -10% UAE 4% € 611 4% USA 6% € 400 5%
ITA CHINA 43% € 1,140 29% IRL USA 39% € 110 20% USA 12% € 1,140 34% CHINA 35% € 528 20% RUSSIA 6% € 725 -26% CANADA 5% € 88 19% TAIWAN 4% € 1,265 -5% AUSTRALIA 4% € 143 11% SOUTH KOREA 3% € 813 33% HONG KONG 2% € 622 211%
ESP CHINA 30% € 509 -6% PRT CHINA 39% € 2,547 -6% RUSSIA 9% € 302 -11% ANGOLA 16% € 397 -20% USA 7% € 499 22% BRAZIL 15% € 388 -43% SOUTH KOREA 4% € 314 15% USA 3% € 703 5% MEXICO 4% € 324 18% MOZAMBIQUE 3% € 329 34%
DEU CHINA 44% € 765 -6% GRC CHINA 39% € 383 7% RUSSIA 7% € 594 -11% USA 9% € 621 23% TAIWAN 6% € 514 10% RUSSIA 7% € 271 -45% THAILAND 5% € 1,027 23% MACEDONIA 6% € 199 -18% USA 4% € 730 29% CANADA 5% € 969 138%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 9 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country – YTD
Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 35% € 1,730 12% AUT CHINA 30% € 615 28% USA 9% € 1,329 20% RUSSIA 10% € 428 -10% HONG KONG 7% € 4,127 -16% SWITZERLAND 8% € 412 -8% SOUTH KOREA 5% € 744 -10% TAIWAN 7% € 657 19% TAIWAN 5% € 2,061 21% THAILAND 4% € 686 66%
GBR CHINA 26% € 401 -12% IRL CHINA 36% € 418 -9% USA 7% € 379 -10% USA 36% € 115 12% KUWAIT 6% € 352 -14% CANADA 4% € 97 14% UAE 5% € 580 -9% AUSTRALIA 3% € 147 -5% SAUDI ARABIA 5% € 369 -16% MALAYSIA 2% € 323 17%
ITA CHINA 32% € 1,125 16% CZE CHINA 25% € 338 4% USA 12% € 1,082 22% RUSSIA 22% € 355 -31% RUSSIA 9% € 761 -12% TAIWAN 16% € 229 9% TAIWAN 5% € 1,249 -2% SOUTH KOREA 6% € 191 -19% SOUTH KOREA 4% € 796 40% USA 5% € 467 6%
ESP CHINA 28% € 656 -3% PRT CHINA 35% € 2,100 2% RUSSIA 8% € 347 -20% BRAZIL 18% € 359 -28% USA 8% € 563 -4% ANGOLA 17% € 378 -29% ARGENTINA 4% € 225 -34% USA 3% € 627 -15% MEXICO 4% € 381 -3% RUSSIA 3% € 304 -38%
DEU CHINA 37% € 674 -6% CHE CHINA 24% € 1,325 25% RUSSIA 9% € 540 -12% UAE 8% € 1,869 3% TAIWAN 5% € 461 2% RUSSIA 7% € 1,376 -16% THAILAND 4% € 979 1% USA 6% € 1,350 35% UAE 4% € 772 -20% SAUDI ARABIA 5% € 1,543 -7%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 10 Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets
Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks
CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP
8.2 82 9.1
8.1 80 9.0 8.0 78 8.9 7.9 76 8.8 7.8 74 8.7 7.7 72 8.6 7.6 70 7.5 8.5
7.4 68 8.4
7.3 66 8.3
USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP
1.26 9.8 1.45
1.24 9.6 1.40 1.22 9.4 1.35 1.20 9.2 1.18 1.30 9.0 1.16 1.25 8.8 1.14
1.12 8.6 1.20
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 11 Arrivals Forecast
In partnership with
Know tomorrow’s travellers
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 12 Europe TOTAL GBR FIN Overview +8.4% +0.8% +6.3% +2.3% +13.3% +3.0% Destination Market Insights
The three months from November 2018 through to January 2019 are expected to witness a 0.8% increase in non-EU NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19 tourist arrivals – a significant decline when compared with the 8.4% growth seen in the same period a year earlier. DEU With the exception of Germany and France, all destination markets are predicted to experience growth during this period, with Austria and Italy expected to post the strongest gains, with forecasted growth of 5.8% and 5.5%, +7.7% -2.9% respectively. While the rate of gains may ostensibly appear muted, they follow uncharacteristically high arrival growth figures in the same period a year earlier, so opportunities for sales growth continue to look positive for retailers. Source Market Insights AUT
Strong sales growth can be expected from the Far East during the months of November to January, with tourist arrivals from Thailand, Japan and Taiwan set to see +4.6% +5.8% double-digit growth of 31%, 15% and 12% respectively. The gradual strengthening of the Thai bhat against the euro has made it more attractive for Thai tour groups to travel to the continent, with the currency being a standout performer in a difficult period for many emerging currencies. The biggest increases in arrivals among Thai tourists will ESP FRA ITA in Italy, with a 65% increase expected, and France, where a 43% increase is expected. Japanese growth will be felt most in Spain and the UK, with growth figures of 25% and 19% expected, respectively. Significant Taiwanese traveller +7.7% +1.0% +13.1% -1.8% +7.0% +5.5% growth can be expected in France, at 27%, and Spain at 25%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 13 3 Month Arrivals RUS CHN HNG
Outlook - France +17.4% -5.0% +1.5% -0.7% +3.7% +5.8%
NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19
USA KOR
+13.3% +4.8% +5.0% +0.7%
BRA JPN
+41.0% -16.5% +5.2% +15.5%
KUW TWN
+34.9% -4.3% -10.4% +26.9%
SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS
+3.3% +3.4% +12.9% -5.7% +7.7% -5.3% +21.4% +1.1% +24.9% +42.7% +42.3% +0.9%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 14 3 Month Arrivals RUS CHN HNG
Outlook - UK +9.5% -8.9% -11.7% +4.0% -11.0% +7.8%
NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19
USA KOR
-3.2% +4.0% +6.0% +7.3%
BRA JPN
+14.3% -0.9% -2.6% +19.4%
KUW TWN
+22.9% +5.2% -1.3% +11.4%
SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS
+4.4% +6.9% +14.4% -3.6% +6.0% -1.1% +11.9% +5.3% +21.2% +7.6% +36.8% -2.3%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 15 3 Month Arrivals RUS CHN HNG
Outlook - Italy +1.6% -5.7% -7.0% +3.3% -10.1% +31.0%
NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19
USA KOR
+14.6% +7.3% +13.9% +1.1%
BRA JPN
+8.9% +6.5% -8.2% +5.0%
KUW TWN
+22.0% -6.0% +0.7% -1.3%
SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS
+9.2% -7.4% -18.2% -11.1% -10.0% -4.2% +30.8% +4.5% +16.5% +65.2% +39.8% -3.4%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 16 3 Month Arrivals RUS CHN HNG
Outlook - Spain +6.8% -1.5% -27.0% +5.0% +11.7% +1.0%
NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19
USA KOR
+18.7% +8.9% -9.1% +5.2%
BRA JPN
+1.7% +1.0% -23.5% +25.3%
KUW TWN
-17.2% +7.5% -20.4% +24.6%
SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS
-5.5% -3.7% -24.7% -2.6% -1.7% -6.8% +18.4% +6.2% +48.1% -5.8% +43.8% +0.2%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 17 3 Month Arrivals RUS CHN HNG
Outlook - Germany +5.0% -6.1% +7.7% -1.3% +5.0% +1.6%
NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19
USA KOR
+4.4% +3.9% +24.5% -9.8%
BRA JPN
+2.2% -2.4% +9.8% +9.5%
KUW TWN
+12.6% +0.4% +0.5% +7.8%
SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS
-2.2% +0.0% +3.1% -12.0% +2.6% -10.5% +15.3% -8.7% +55.9% +21.8% +34.0% -2.8%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 18 3 Month Arrivals RUS CHN HNG
Outlook - Austria +4.9% -3.3% -6.8% +15.0% +36.8% -3.5%
NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19
USA KOR
-0.0% +5.2% +17.7% -4.3%
BRA JPN
-6.2% -1.1% -1.3% -2.1%
KUW TWN
+29.8% +3.0% +25.0% +39.8%
SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS
+3.7% -6.3% -21.3% +5.4% +3.2% -8.1% +14.2% -1.8% +216.8% +77.4% +40.8% +4.6%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 19 3 Month Arrivals RUS CHN HNG
Outlook - Finland +33.2% -9.1% -2.5% -2.5% -0.1% +5.7%
NOV 17 - JAN 18 NOV 18 - JAN 19
USA KOR
+12.2% +1.6% +16.5% -6.2%
BRA JPN
+15.7% +7.5% -1.3% -3.1%
KUW TWN
-2.8% +0.0% +15.9% +2.6%
SAU QAT UAE IND THA AUS
+0.0% -2.4% -11.1% -26.7% -6.2% -4.3% +36.0% -7.8% +28.1% -1.6% +110.4% -3.2%
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 20 International Holiday Calendar 2018
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1-2 New Year’s Holiday 16-21 Spring Festival - 5 Qing Ming Jie 1 Labour Day 18 Dragon Boat Festival 24 Mid-Autumn Festival 1 National Day Chinese New Year 2-7 Golden Week Holiday CHN
1 New Year’s Day 23 Defence of the 8 Women’s Day 12 National Day 4-6 Unity Day Holiday 7 Orthodox Xmas Day Fatherland Day RUS
36 Republic Day 13 Maha Shivaratri 25 Rama Navami 30 Buddha Purnima 15 Independence Day 3 Janmashtami 19 Dussehra 7 Diwali / Deepavali 25 Christmas Day 29 Mahavir Jayanti 22 Bakr Id / Eid ul-Adha 21 Muharram / Ashura 21 Milad un-Nabi 30 Good Friday 23 Guru Nanak Jayanti IND
1 New Year’s Day 10-14 Carnival 30 Good Friday 21 Tiradentes Day 1 Labour Day / May Day 7 Independence Day 12 Our Lady Aparecida 2 All Soul’s Day 24 Christmas Eve 31 Corpus Christi Day / Childeren’s Day 15 Republic 25 Christmas Day 28 Public Service Proclamation Day 31 New Years Eve BRA Holiday
1 New Year’s Day 11 Revolution Day (Iran) 20 Oil Nationalisation 1 Islamic Republic Day 1 Labour Day / May Day 4 Anniversary of 23 Renaissance Day 21 Arafat Day (UAE) 1 Waqfat Arafat Day 3 Iraqi Independence 21 Mouloud - Prophet’s 1 Prophet’s Birthday 6 Army Day (Iraq) 25 Kuwaiti National Day Day (Iran) (Iran) (Iraq / Bahrain) Khomeni’s Death (Iran) (Oman) 21 Eid-e-Ghorban (Iran) (Kuwait) Day Birthday (UAE). (Kuwait) 26 Liberation Day 21-24 Perian New Year 2 Nature Day (Iran) 2 Israel Independence 15-17 Eid-al-Fitr (UAE) 22-26 Eid-al-Adha 2-4 Eid-al-Adha (Kuwait 5-11 Sukkot (Israel) 21 Prophet 2 National Day (UAE) MID (Kuwait) (Iran) 11-17 Pesach I (First day Day) 24-29 Eid-al-Fitr / Saudi Arabia) 12 Simchat Torah Muhammad’s Birthday 16-17 National Day EAST 30 Birthday of Imam of Passover - Israel) 31 Pentecost (Israel) (Oman) 12 Islamic New Year (Israel) (Iran) (Bahrain) Ali (Iran) 13 Prophet’s Ascension 26-28 Eid-al-Fitr (UAE / Bahrain / Iraq) 29 Arbaeen (Iran) 30 Commemoration (UAE/Iran) (Kuwait) 19 Tassoua (Iran) Day (UAE) 24 Isra & Miraj (Oman) 21-22 Rosh Hashana 27 Isra & Miraj (Kuwait) (Israel New Year) 22 Islamic New Year (Kuwait) 24 Saudi National Day 30 Yom Kippur (Israel)
1 New Year’s Day 16-19 Spring Festival - 30 Good Friday 2 Easter Monday 1 Labour Day 18 Dragon Boat Festival 1-2 Establishment Day 25 Day after 1 PRC National Day 25 Christmas Day Chinese New Year 31 Holy Saturday 5 Tomb Sweeping 22 Buddha’s Birthday Holiday Mid-Autumn Festival 17 Chung Yeung Festival 26 Boxing Day HKG
1 New Year’s Day 16 Spring Festival - 17 Day of Silence & 13 Ascension of the 1 Labour Day 12-17 Idul Fitri 17 Independence Day 11 Muharram - Islamic 20 Prophet 25 Christmas Day Chinese New Year Hindu New Year Prophet Mohammad 10 Ascension Day of 21 Muslim Day of New Year Muhammad’s Birthday 30 Good Friday Jesus Christ Sacrifice IDN 29 Waisak Day
16 Spring Festival - 29 Wesak Day 1 Labour Day 15-16 Hari Raya 28 Yang di-Pertuan 22 Hari Raya Haji 12 Muharram - Islamic 7 Diwali / Deepavali 25 Christmas Day Chinese New Year Agong’s Birthday 31 Nataional day New Year 21 Prophet 16 Malaysia Day Muhammad’s Birthday MYS
1 New Year’s Day 31 Makha Bucha 6 Chakri Day 1 Labour Day 27 Asalha Bucha 12-13 The Queen’s 23 Chulalongkorn Day 5 Father’s Day 13-17 Songkran 10 Royal Ploughing 28 King Vajiralongkorn’s Birthday 10 Constitution Day 29 Visakha Bucha Ceremony Day Birthday 12-13 Mother’s Day 31 New Year’s Eve THA 28 Buddhist Lent Day
1 New Year’s Day 11-12 National 21 Spring Equinox 29-30 Showa Day 3 Constitution Memorial 16 Sea Day 11 Mountain Day 17 Respect the Aged 8 Sports Day 3 Culture Day 23-24 Emporor’s 8 Coming of Age Day Foundation Day Day Day 23 Labour Thanksgiving Birthday 4 Greenery Day Day JAP 5 Childeren’s Day
1 New Year’s Day 19 President’s Day 4 Independence Day 3 Labour Day 8 Columbus Day 11-12 Veteran’s Day 25 Christmas Day 15 Martin Luther King 22 Thanksgiving Day Jr Day USA
October Report 2018 Planet Intelligence | 21 Fintrax Group Holdings (Now branded as Planet) Headquartered in Galway, Ireland Email: [email protected] | Web: planetpayment.com
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