Working Paper Series Congressional Budget Office Washington, D.C. IDENTIFYING RATES OF EMIGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES USING ADMINISTRATIVE EARNINGS RECORDS Jonathan A. Schwabish (E-mail:
[email protected]) Congressional Budget Office Washington, D.C. March 2009 2009-01 Working papers in this series are preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. These papers are not subject to CBO’s formal review and editing processes. The analysis and conclusions expressed in them are those of the author and should not be interpreted as those of the Congressional Budget Office. References in publications should be cleared with the authors. Papers in this series can be obtained at www.cbo.gov/publications. The author wishes to thank Paul Cullinan, Thomas DeLeire, Robert Dennis, Harriet Orcutt Duleep, Joyce Manchester, Marie Mora, Jeffrey Passel, Pia Orrenius, and researchers at the Pew Research Center for comments and suggestions. Abstract Sound assessment of the impact of immigration on the economy and public policies requires accurate measurement of both inflows and outflows of migrants. This paper undertakes a new strategy to estimate emigration rates among U.S. immigrants by inferring the probability of emigration using longitudinal administrative earnings data from 1978 through 2003. Two groups of emigrants are evaluated separately: those who emigrate from the United States and those who leave both the United States and the Social Security system. The method used here finds that between 1.0 percent and 1.5 percent of the foreign-born working population emigrates every year, consistent with previous estimates. These estimates suggest that the number of foreign-born workers who emigrate each year doubled between the late 1970s and late 1990s, rising from about 200,000 to 400,000.