Proposed 2020 Census Data Products Plan

National Advisory Committee Spring 2019 Meeting

Jason Devine Cynthia Hollingsworth Population Division Decennial Census Management Division

May 2-3, 2019 Background • The Census Bureau has a long history of protecting information provided by respondents

• Over the decades, more and more granular census data have been published

• Advances in data science, more powerful computers, and externally accessible ‘big data’ – which contain a lot of personal information – has increased the risk of identifying individuals from published statistics

• To mitigate this risk, the Census Bureau is transitioning to a new disclosure avoidance method called differential privacy

2 Background (cont.) • Our goal for the 2020 Census data products is to meet data user needs while implementing the new disclosure avoidance method - however, there are some challenges

• We currently do not have solutions for protecting tabulations based on complex variables (characteristics of people within households), and variables with many possible values (detailed race/ethnicity)

• We need your help in understanding what the “must-have” tables are both in terms of detail and geography to allow us to focus efforts on researching potential solutions to meet critical needs

3 Stakeholder Feedback • The primary way we collected feedback was through a July 2018 Federal Register notice, its extension, and associated outreach • Approximately 1,200 comments were received • Comments provided examples detailing legal, programmatic, or statistical needs for specific tables and geographies within the decennial products • We are using the Federal Register comments to inform the development of the proposed suite of 2020 data products

4 Examples of Federal Register Comments Received • Sex and age data used by Michigan Department of Education for School Aid and dollars for Michigan's school-aged population are distributed based on the numbers of persons in age cohorts. • Data on tribes used for creating Annual Community Health Profile and Tribal- specific reports, which are used by Tribal Health Departments, Tribal Epidemiology Centers, Regional Tribal Leaders Council, Tribal Colleges, and Tribal Councils. • Detailed race/ethnicity data used by the Oregon Health Authority, Program Design & Evaluation Services for REAL+D data collection efforts that solicit more than 60 detailed race and ethnic groups. The REAL+D data collection is mandated by Oregon State Legislature House Bill 2134. • Detailed race/ethnicity data used to identify ethnicities that qualify for language services covered by Section 203 of Voting Rights Act.

5 Overview of the Proposed 2020 Census Data Products Plan • We are currently proposing to produce the following products for 2020 – Apportionment Product – Redistricting File (P.L. 94-171) – Demographic Profile – Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (replaces Summary File 1) – Congressional District Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (replaces Congressional District Summary File)

• We are currently unable to produce the following products, but we are internally researching ways we can produce them for 2020 – Detailed race and Hispanic origin tables and some household tables from Summary File 1 – Summary File 2 – American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File – Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

• We are not proposing to produce the following products for 2020 – Summary of Population and Housing Characteristics (CPH-1) – Population and Housing Unit Counts Report Series (CPH-2)

6 Apportionment Product • The Apportionment Product will be the first Proposed updates for 2020: release of the 2020 Census • No changes • The Apportionment Product will consist of the resident population of the 50 states plus the overseas federal employees (military and civilian) and their dependents living with them, who are included in their home states • Release date: Within 9 months of Census Day (December 31, 2020)

7 Example of a table from the 2010 Apportionment Product

Source: 2010 Census Apportionment, Table 1

8 Redistricting File (P.L. 94-171) Public Law 94-171 directs the Census Bureau to provide Proposed updates for 2020: data to the governors and legislative leadership in each • Add data for the seven major group of the 50 states for redistricting purposes quarters types, which were This product will be the first file released that will previously provided in the 2010 include demographic and housing characteristics about Census Advanced Group Quarters detailed geographic areas Summary File • Subjects will include: • Voting age • Occupancy Status • Race • Group quarters population • Hispanic or Latino origin • Lowest level of geography: Census Block • Release date: Within one year of Census Day (April 1, 2021)

9 Examples of tables from the 2010 Redistricting File (P.L. 94-171) P1. Race P2. Hispanic or Latino and Not Hispanic or Latino by Race Universe: Total population Universe: Total population

Source: 2010 Census Redistricting Data Source: 2010 Census Redistricting Data (Public Law 94-171) Summary File (Public Law 94-171) Summary File

10 Demographic Profile This product will provide critical demographic Proposed updates for 2020: and housing characteristics about local • Change lowest level of geography communities from census tract to place/minor civil division • Subjects will include: • 5-year age groups • Relationship to • Sex householder • Race • Group quarters population • Hispanic or Latino origin • Housing occupancy • Household type • Housing tenure • Lowest level of geography: Place/Minor Civil Division • Target release date: Spring 2021

11 Examples of tables from the 2010 Demographic Profile

Sex and Age Universe: Total population

Source: 2010 Census, Demographic Profile

12 Demographic and Housing Characteristics File • Replaces Summary File 1 Unresolved challenges with • This file will include detailed demographic and housing using the new disclosure characteristics and will provide the foundation for later avoidance method for 2020: data products • Tabulating tables that require the • Subjects will include: linkage of data from the person and • Detailed age • Housing occupancy housing records (e.g., characteristics • Sex • Housing tenure about children in households or • Household type • Some subjects provided for about the householder) • Families major OMB race/ethnicity • Tabulations of characteristic/item • Relationship to householder groups allocation • Group quarters population Proposed Updates for 2020: • Lowest level of geography: Various; some tables • Remove detailed race and Hispanic available down to the census block origin tables • Target release date: Summer 2021

13 Unresolved Challenges – No solution at this time Example of a Table that Requires the Linkage of Data from the Person and Housing Records Household Type by Relationship for the Population Under 18 Years Universe: Population under 18 years

Source: 2010 Census, Summary File 1 Table P31

14 Unresolved Challenges – No solution at this time Examples of detailed race and Hispanic origin tables Hispanic or Latino by Specific Origins Asian Alone with One Asian Category for Selected Groups Universe: Total population Universe: Total Asian categories tallied for people with one Asian category only and people with no specific Asian category reported

Source: 2010 Census, Summary File 1, Table PCT5 Source: 2010 Census, Summary File 1, Table PCT11

15 Congressional District Demographic and Housing Characteristics File • Replaces the Congressional District Summary File Unresolved challenges with • This file will provide a re-tabulation of the Demographic and using the new disclosure Housing Characteristics File for the new congressional districts avoidance method for 2020: • Subjects will include: • Tabulating tables that require the Detailed Age Group quarters population • • linkage of data from the person and • Sex • Housing occupancy housing records (e.g., characteristics • Household type • Housing tenure about children in households or • Families • Some subjects provided for about the householder) • Relationship to householder major OMB race/ethnicity groups • Tabulations of characteristic/item • Lowest level of geography: Census Tracts within allocation Congressional Districts • Target release date: Spring 2023

16 Proposed Additional Data Products • Census Briefs • Census briefs will provide summaries of population and Proposed updates for 2020: housing data, and display data visually through maps, • Update briefs, tables, and reports graphs, and figures to include new content • Lowest level of geography: Largest Places • Modernize briefs and incorporate • Target release date: December 2020 – Summer 2023 new ways to disseminate data • Population and Housing Tables • Population and Housing tables will provide population and housing data, often providing comparisons to the previous census • Lowest level of geography: Largest Places • Target release date: Fall 2021 – Spring 2023 • Special Reports • Special Reports will provide in-depth analyses of population and housing data not available in other data products • Lowest level of geography: Largest Places • Target release date: Fall 2022 – Winter 2022

17 Examples of 2010 Census Briefs, Population and Housing Tables, and Special Reports

Overview of Race and Hispanic CPH-T-1. Population Change for Centenarians: 2010 Origin: 2010 Counties in the United States and for Municipios in Puerto Rico: 2000 to 2010

18 Summary of Unresolved Challenges with Using the New Disclosure Avoidance Method – No solutions at this time • Tabulating accurate counts and detailed demographic and housing characteristics for: – Detailed race and Hispanic origin groups – American Indian and Alaska Native tribes, Alaska Native villages, associations, communities, councils, and corporations • Tabulating tables that require the linkage of data from the person and housing records (e.g., characteristics about children in households or about the householder) • Tabulating accurate data for levels of geography beyond block, block group, tract, county, state, and nation (e.g., school districts, urban areas, and American Indian, Alaska Native, and Native Hawaiian Areas) • Our intent is to provide as much of these data as possible while maintaining accuracy and privacy protection

19 Unresolved Challenges – No solution at this time Examples of demographic and housing characteristics for detailed race and Hispanic origin groups from the 2010 Summary File 2

Median Age by Sex Household Size Universe: Total population Universe: Occupied housing units Population group: Mexican alone Population group: Chinese alone or in any combination

Source: Table PCT4, 2010 Census Summary File 2

Source: Table HCT6, 2010 Census Summary File 2 20 Unresolved Challenges – No solution at this time Examples of demographic and housing characteristics for detailed American Indian and Alaska Native groups from the 2010 American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File

Median Age by Sex Household Size Universe: Total population Universe: Occupied housing units Population group: Blackfeet Tribe of the Population group: Tlingit-Haida tribal Blackfeet Indian Reservation of Montana grouping alone or in any combination alone

Source: Table PCT4, 2010 Census American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File Source: Table HCT6, 2010 Census American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File

21 Summary of Proposed 2020 Data Products

Proposed 2020 Data Product Summary of Unresolved Challenges with Using the New Disclosure Avoidance Method – No solutions at this time Apportionment Product These files will be produced for the 2020 Census. RedistrictingFile Demographic Profile While we continue to draft individualtables, we are working to Demographic and Housing Characteristics File resolve challenges with tabulations for: • Various levels of geography • Tables that require linking data from the person and housing CongressionalDistrict Demographicand Housing Characteristics unit files File • Tabulations of characteristic/item allocation Census Briefs Data in these files are primarilydependent on the productionof Population and Housing Tables the files listed above. Special Reports

22 Summary of Proposed 2020 Data Products (cont.)

Proposed 2020 Data Product Summary of Unresolved Challenges with Using the New Disclosure Avoidance Method – No solutions at this time Products that include data for detailed race and Hispanic origin We continue to internally research ways to create public data groups products similar to the 2010 Census that meet user needs yet maintain data confidentiality. Products that include data for American Indian and Alaska Native groups Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File We continue to internally discuss the availability of a PUMS file for the 2020 Census. Summary of Population and Housing Characteristics (CPH-1) We are proposingnot to publish these files in 2020. Population and Housing Unit Counts Report Series (CPH-2) Data from these products will be available in other files.

23 2020 Census Data Products Planning • Spring – Fall 2019: Conduct outreach with stakeholders and collect feedback • Proposed Release Timeline Similar to Previous Decades • Apportionment Product will be released for all states by December 31, 2020 • Redistricting File will be released for all states by March 31, 2021 • All other products, including Island Area Census data, will be released on a flow beginning Spring 2021

24 Questions for NAC • What are your critical needs for decennial census data and at what levels of geography? • Do you have any suggestions for outreach and engagement about the 2020 data products with particular scientific, academic, or professional organizations? • If we are able to produce detailed race, Hispanic origin, and AIAN data, but those data are inconsistent with the data for the major OMB categories included in other data products, is that an acceptable solution? • Considering the changes and challenges discussed in this presentation what concerns do you have?

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