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Valuación De La Empresa Kroger Co

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Valuación De La Empresa Kroger Co Universidad de San Andrés Escuela de Negocios Maestría en Finanzas Valuación de la Empresa Kroger Co. Autora: Ma. Florencia Lascano DNI: 31222890 Mentor de Tesis: Gabriel Basaluzzo Córdoba, 11 de Junio de 2019 Escuela de Administración y Negocios Magister en Finanzas Trabajo Final de Graduación Valuación de la Empresa Kroger Co. Autor: Ma. Florencia Lascano DNI: 31.222.890 Tutor: Gabriel Basaluzzo. Córdoba. 11 de Junio de 2019 Trabajo Final de Tesis – Magister Finanzas Udesa. Índice 1. RESUMEN EJECUTIVO ................................................................................................................ 5 2. DESCRIPCIÓN DEL NEGOCIO.................................................................................................. 6 2.1 ORIGEN. ..................................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 ESTRATEGIA Y LÍNEAS DE NEGOCIO. ............................................................................................... 6 2.3 EVOLUCIÓN DE LAS VENTAS. ....................................................................................................... 11 2.4 EVOLUCIÓN DEL PRECIO DE LA ACCIÓN Y ESTRUCTURA SOCIETARIA. ............................................ 16 2.5 DIRECTORIO Y EQUIPO DE TRABAJO............................................................................................. 16 3. LA INDUSTRIA. .......................................................................................................................... 17 3.1 MERCADO MINORISTA DE ALIMENTOS. ......................................................................................... 17 3.2 DEMANDA DE PRODUCTOS NATURALES Y ORGÁNICOS. ................................................................ 21 3.3 COMERCIO ELECTRÓNICO – ENTREGA. ....................................................................................... 22 3.4 TECNOLOGÍA EN EL RETAIL. ......................................................................................................... 25 3.5 VENTAJA DEL GRAN OPERADOR. ................................................................................................ 25 3.6 TENDENCIAS ALIMENTARIAS - UNA NUEVA OLA DE COMIDA: ORGÁNICOS, SALUDABLES Y LOCALES. 26 3.7 TENDENCIAS POBLACIONALES - HOGARES MÁS PEQUEÑOS Y CAMBIOS DEMOGRÁFICOS. ............... 27 3.8 COMPETIDORES. ........................................................................................................................ 27 4. ANÁLISIS FODA KROGER CO. ................................................................................................ 30 4.1 FORTALEZAS. ............................................................................................................................. 30 4.2 DEBILIDADES. ............................................................................................................................. 31 4.3 OPORTUNIDADES. ...................................................................................................................... 32 4.4 AMENAZAS. ............................................................................................................................... 32 5. EL MODELO DE LAS CINCO FUERZAS DE PORTER EN KROGER CO. ................................. 33 6. ASPECTOS FINANCIEROS. ...................................................................................................... 34 6.1 ESTADO DE SITUACION PATRIMONIAL. ............................................................................... 35 6.2 VENTAS Y RESULTADOS. ........................................................................................................ 42 6.3 INDICADORES PROPIOS DE LA INDUSTRIA. ......................................................................... 45 7. IMPACTO Y COMPORTAMIENTO DE LOS INDUCTORES “EXTERNOS” O DRIVERS. ........... 48 7.1 PRONÓSTICO DE LOS DRIVERS PARA LOS PRÓXIMOS AÑOS. ........................................................... 54 8. ANÁLISIS DE RESULTADOS ESPERADOS. ................................................................................ 56 8.1 CRECIMIENTO EN VENTAS. .......................................................................................................... 56 8.2 GASTOS VARIOS Y OPERATIVOS - DEPRECIACIONES Y AMORTIZACIONES. ....................................... 58 8.3 MARGEN EBITDA, EBIT Y NETO OPERATIVO. ............................................................................... 60 8.4 INVERSIÓN EN CAPITAL O CAPEX. ............................................................................................. 61 8.5 INVERSIÓN EN CAPITAL DE TRABAJO O “WC”. ............................................................................ 62 8.6 AJUSTES POR ARRENDAMIENTOS OPERATIVOS. ............................................................................. 63 Ma,. Florencia Lascano - 2018 2 Trabajo Final de Tesis – Magister Finanzas Udesa. 9. MARCO TEÓRICO DE UNA VALUACIÓN .............................................................................. 68 9.1 VALOR INTRÍNSECO Y METODOLOGÍA DE FLUJO DE EFECTIVO DESCONTADO (DCF) ....................... 69 9.1.1 COSTO DEL CAPITAL PROPIO(KE):............................................................................................ 70 9.1.2 COSTO DE LA DEUDA (KD) ...................................................................................................... 72 9.1.3 WACC .................................................................................................................................. 75 9.1.4 MÉTODOS DE VALORACIÓN DE DCF – VALOR DE LA FIRMA - VALOR TERMINAL – VALOR DEL PATRIMONIO. ..................................................................................................................................... 76 10. VALUACIÓN DE KROGER POR DCF. ..................................................................................... 78 10.1 COSTO DEL CAPITAL PROPIO, EN INGLÉS “EQUITY”(KE) DE KR .................................................... 78 10.2 COSTO DE LA DEUDA (KD) DE KR ............................................................................................. 82 10.3 TASA IMPOSITIVA (T) DE KR ...................................................................................................... 82 10.4 WACC DE KR ........................................................................................................................ 83 10.5 VALOR TERMINAL Y TASA G DE KR. ........................................................................................... 84 10.6 DESCRIPCIÓN DE LOS ESCENARIOS ........................................................................................... 85 10.6.1 ESCENARIO BASE ................................................................................................................... 85 10.6.2 ESCENARIO PESIMISTA ............................................................................................................ 89 10.6.3 ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA ........................................................................................................... 91 11. MARCO TEÓRICO - VALOR RELATIVO Y VALORACIÓN POR COMPARABLES: ............... 94 12. VALUACIÓN POR COMPARABLES A TRAVÉS DE MÚLTIPLOS. ............................................ 94 12.1 ANÁLISIS DE EMPRESA OBJETIVO. ............................................................................................... 95 12.2 ELECCIÓN DE EMPRESAS COMPARABLES: PEER GROUP. ............................................................. 95 12.3 ELECCIÓN DE LOS MÚLTIPLOS A UTILIZAR .................................................................................... 95 10.6.4 CALCULO DEL VALOR DE LA EMPRESA ..................................................................................... 95 10.6.5 MÚLTIPLOS FRECUENTEMENTE UTILIZADOS ................................................................................. 95 12.4 VALUACIÓN POR MÚLTIPLOS DE KROGER .................................................................................. 97 13. CONCLUSIÓN FINAL ............................................................................................................. 102 14. BIBLIOGRAFÍA. ....................................................................................................................... 104 Ma,. Florencia Lascano - 2018 3 Trabajo Final de Tesis – Magister Finanzas Udesa. Agradecimientos: A Dios. Por permitirme aprender y desarrollar mi mente, darme salud, fe, alegría, linda compañía y un inmenso amor. A mi Familia. Por acompañarme en los caminos que elijo y apoyarme en cada una de mis decisiones. Por su amor, sus enseñanzas, su comprensión y confianza. A mis amigos: Por entenderme, apoyarme, divertirme y darme el privilegio de acompañarlos. A mi Tutor de Tesis: Por enseñarme y clarificar mis dudas; por compartir sus conocimientos con afecto, generosidad y dedicación en la labor educativa. Por confiar en mí. Ma,. Florencia Lascano - 2018 4 Trabajo Final de Tesis – Magister Finanzas Udesa. 1. Resumen Ejecutivo En el presente trabajo se valúa la empresa The Kroger Co. en adelante: KR, siendo el 3 de Febrero de 2018, fecha del último Balance Anual aprobado de la compañía. La empresa pertenece al sector del retail, siendo su principal actividad el comercio minorista de alimentos en Estados Unidos. Con tiendas ubicadas en treinta y cinco de los estados americanos y ventas mayores a USD 122 billones. Opera directamente o a través de sus subsidiarias dos mil ochocientas tiendas, entre las
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