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Business Overview Navigating the Supermarket Channel -West Coast US 1 John Rand, SVP October 2016 Regional Grocery Forum - West © Kantar Retail 2016 2 Copyright © Kantar Retail 2016. All Rights Reserved. 501 Boylston St., Suite 6101, Boston, MA 02116 T: +1 (617) 912 2828 [email protected] No part of this material may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photography, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without the express written permission of Kantar Retail. The printing of any copies for backup is also strictly prohibited. Disclaimers The analyses and conclusions presented in this seminar represent the opinions of Kantar Retail. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the retailer(s) under discussion. This seminar is not endorsed or otherwise supported by the management of any of the companies covered during the course of the workshop or within the following slides. © Kantar Retail 2016 3 1 Exploring the West Coast Retail Landscape 2 The Albertsons Companies 3 Zooming In: Regional Focus © Kantar Retail 2016 Retailer Overview 4 Kroger and WinCo leading the race in sales growth rate KR Top West Supermarket Retailers Sales (USD billions) Square Footage (millions) % of West Totals US CAGR Rank CAGR CAGR CAGR 2016E 2016E Retailer 2011 2016E 2021E ('16E- 2011 2016E 2021E 2016E ('11-'16E) ('11-'16E) ('16E-'21E) Sales Sq Ft '21E) Sales 1 Kroger $84.1 $112.6 $140.0 6.0% 4.5% 143.9 171.0 179.3 3.5% 1.0% 59.4% 53.4% 2 Albertsons Market (LLC) $40.6 $56.5 $57.4 6.8% 0.3% 82.4 110.2 110.2 6.0% 0.0% 29.8% 34.4% 3 WinCo $4.6 $6.6 $8.8 7.8% 5.9% 7.4 10.1 12.2 6.4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 4 Save Mart $4.7 $4.7 $5.0 0.3% 1.1% 10.9 10.7 10.7 -0.5% 0.1% 2.5% 3.3% 5 Stater Bros $3.7 $4.0 $4.5 1.8% 2.3% 5.8 5.9 6.1 0.5% 0.7% 2.1% 1.8% 6 Raleys $3.4 $3.2 $3.3 -1.1% 1.0% 8.1 7.3 7.3 -2.2% 0.0% 1.7% 2.3% 7 Bashas' $1.5 $1.8 $1.9 3.5% 1.5% 4.3 5.0 5.1 3.0% 0.6% 0.9% 1.6% Total West US Supermarkets * $ 142.5 $ 189.5 $ 221.1 5.9% 3.1% 263.0 320.2 330.9 4.0% 0.7% 100% 100% * Total of this sample of top retailers only Ratio of sales to space always a strong indicator Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 Western Grocery Retailers Stable 5 But only Kroger and WinCo exceed channel average growth rate 2016E Sales CAGR Retailer Status Growth (USD billions) ('16E-'21E) Kroger $112.6 Stable 4.5% Leading Albertsons Market (LLC) $56.5 In Flux 0.3% Lagging WinCo $6.6 Stable 5.9% Leading Save Mart $4.7 Stable 1.1% Lagging Stater Bros $4.0 Stable 2.3% Lagging Raleys $3.2 Stable 1.0% Lagging Bashas' $1.8 Stable 1.5% Lagging For comparison the forecast for supermarkets nationally is a CAGR of 4.1% Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 Store Growth Minimal Growing 0.4% CAGR 2016E-2021E 6 West Supermarket Retailers Share of Store 4,810 5,844 5,970 100% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 90% 3.5% 4.8% 3.8% 3.8% 80% 70% 34.4% 38.3% WinCo 60% 39.2% Bashas' Raleys 50% Stater Bros 40% Save Mart Albertsons Market (LLC) 30% Kroger 50.6% 48.2% 48.8% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2016E 2021E Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 Top Western Retailers to Add $31.5 Billion in Sales Through 7 2021E West Supermarket Retailers Share of Sales (USD Billion) $142.4 $189.5 $221.0 100% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1%1.7% 2.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 3.3% 4.0% 90% 3.2% 3.5% 80% 26.0% 28.5% 70% 29.8% Bashas' 60% Raleys Stater Bros 50% Save Mart 40% WinCo Albertsons Market (LLC) 63.3% 30% 59.0% 59.4% Kroger 20% 10% 0% 2011 2016E 2021E Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 Kroger Will Account for 86.9% the Sales Added by Top 8 Regional Chains through 2021 Rank % Sales Added (US West Supermarket Sales-Supermarket Format Only) Sales 2016E Sales 2021E Sales Added % of Total Sales Added ` (USD billions) (USD billions) 2016E-2021E 2016E-2021E 1 Kroger $112.6 $140.0 $27.4 86.9% 2 WinCo $6.6 $8.8 $2.2 6.9% 3 Albertsons Market (LLC) $56.5 $57.4 $0.9 2.8% 4 Stater Bros $4.0 $4.5 $0.5 1.5% 5 Save Mart $4.7 $5.0 $0.3 0.9% 6 Raleys $3.2 $3.3 $0.2 0.5% 7 Bashas' $1.8 $1.9 $0.1 0.4% Top 7 Total $189.5 $221.1 $31.6 100.0% Finding above average growth in most Western conventional supermarkets will be difficult Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 WinCo and Kroger Operate Most Productive Stores 9 Others Roughly On Par with One Another Sales per Store (USD million) 2011 2016E 2021E $80 $67.4 $61.0 $60 $57.1 $48.1 $40.0 $40 $34.5 $27.9 $25.4$26.5 $25.8 $24.5 $24.7$25.1 $23.8 $22.1 $22.4 $20.3$21.3 $20 $15.7 $13.8 $15.0 $0 WinCo Kroger Raleys Albertsons Stater Bros Save Mart Bashas' Market (LLC) Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 Regional Retailers per Store Productivity 10 Sales per Square Foot is a critical metric for comparison Sales by Square Feet 2011 2016E 2021E $1,000 $800 $781 $736 $725 $681 $639 $659 $655 $614 $584 $600 $521 $493 $513 $468 $459 $444 $437 $427 $412 $374 $400 $349 $357 $200 $0 Stater Bros Kroger WinCo Albertsons Save Mart Raleys Bashas' Market (LLC) Ranked by 2016E Sales Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 More Employees Usually Equals Higher Store Productivity 11 But there are some exceptions – and most of them are in the West! Square Foot per Employee by Retailer Sq ft/Employee 2016 Sales/ sq ft 2016 750 $800 672 676 650 $681 $659 549 $655 550 470 $600 450 397 $513 350 329 $437 $400 250 $357 150 50 $200 Stater Bros Kroger Raleys Bashas' Albertsons WinCo Market (LLC) Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 WinCo Most Productive by Store, Kroger the Highest Total 12 Most other Western supermarkets show similar SKU productivity Ranked by Sales/SKU/Store/Week Retailer Sales/SKU Sales/SKU/Store/Week Sales/SKU/Store WinCo $151,007 $26.6 $1,385.4 Kroger $2,251,821 * $15.4 $799.9 Raleys $72,273 $11.6 $602.3 Albertsons Market (LLC) $1,284,893 * $10.8 $561.3 Stater Bros $91,592 $10.4 $542.0 Save Mart $107,765 $9.3 $483.3 Bashas' $40,515 $6.5 $340.5 * Corporate totals; assumes full distribution Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 Cost: The Adoption of Pricing Strategies Has Created a 13 New Industry View: “The Hourglass” Projected dollar growth 2016E-2021E is: West National Premium 22.2% (CAGR 7.1%) 19.9% (CAGR 5.5%) “Haves” Mainstream 55.6% (CAGR 0.5%) 31.5% (CAGR 1.7%) Value 22.2% (CAGR 4.5%) 48.0% (CAGR 5.4%) “Have “Have Nots” Pacific and Northwest overall affluent and on-trend Source: Kantar Retail analysis; company reports Data as of 8/29/16 with premium, especially organic © Kantar Retail 2016 Various Ownership Model Indicate Different Vendor Impacts 14 Retailers Prime KPI Key Metrics Vendor Impact • Save Mart • Bashas’ Steady YoY Promo Excite Family Owned • Aldi/Trader Joe’s Value of Assets Improvements Sales, Co-Marketing • Stater Bros** Inventory Collaboration Employee Owned Profitable Steady YoY Deal and slotting • WinCo improvement in all Improvements Sales, performance Co-Op areas Inventory structures Inventory, Real • Albertsons Best Practice Store conditions Private Equity Estate, Comps Companies Cash generation Product selection EBITDA Collaboration, off- • Kroger Quarterly reporting to Sales, Comps, Corporate invoice monies, • Costco Market GMROI slotting fees ** legally owned by a closely held private equity firm established for the purpose Source: Kantar Retail analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 The Shopper Tells Us What Matters Most 15 Top Six Most Important Factors When Grocery Shopping (share rating factor as “extremely important”) High-quality fresh foods Assortment 70% Specific items I want are in-stock Convenience 61% Convenient location Convenience 57% Easy to find what I am looking for Experience 55% Feeling like I'm getting a "good deal" Value 53% Store is clean and looks nice Experience 53% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, February 2016 © Kantar Retail 2016 And Retailers Need to Fill the Gaps 16 Utilizing the space and service model enables them to do so Importance vs. Experience: Most Important Grocery Shopping Factors (share rating factor as “extremely important” vs. share indicating it describes experience) Extremely Important Describes Shopping Experience (avg. across all retailers) 70% High-quality fresh foods Assortment 38% 61% Specific items I want are in-stock Convenience 40% 57% Convenient location Convenience 57% 55% Easy to find what I am looking for Experience 46% 53% Feeling like I'm getting a "good deal" Value 45% 53% Store is clean and looks nice Experience 52% Source: Kantar Retail ShopperScape®, February 2016 © Kantar Retail 2016 Grocery Retailers Satisfy Many Shoppers Demands But 17 Focus Is Critical Convenience In your opinion, how do these retailer compare? Value How different are they from one another? What makes them special to their Experience shoppers? Assortment Source: Kantar Retail research and analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 Price: Retailers Skew Price Position Towards Hi-Lo or EDLP 18 Hi-Lo EDLP Source: Kantar Retail research & analysis © Kantar Retail 2016 Price Competition for Fresh Incredibly High 19 % of Total Ad Space: Fresh Category Raley's Ralphs Save Mart * PRICE POINT * PRICE RANGE * x/For % OFF B1G1 B1G1 50% OFF OTHER Sprouts Safeway Albertsons 2016 Year to Date *Safeway includes only Safeway banner Source: Kantar Retail analysis; ECRM MarketGate Data *Albertsons SOC includes all California market © Kantar Retail 2016 Hot Price Points Are the Promo of Choice for Albertsons 20 % of Total Ad Space by Promotion: Dry Grocery Raley's Ralph's Save Mart * PRICE POINT * PRICE RANGE * x/For %
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