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Oilfield Services Update OFS Newsletter | November 2017

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Oilfield Services Update OFS Newsletter | November 2017 Oilfield Services Newsletter | November 2017 Oilfield Services Update OFS Newsletter | November 2017 Introduction Energy & Industrials Team As we wrap up 2017, we aim to provide a recap of the year behind us, and insights into the Duane Donner trends developing in the oilfield. We will discuss a number of the developments in the energy [email protected] markets over the last 12 months, and ultimately how they impact service companies as we Matt Carrington head into the new year. [email protected] 2017 WTI Crude Oil Prices John Sullivan [email protected] $58.00 “OPEC, non-OPEC “WTI hits $56.00 compliance with Evan Klisares cuts hits highest in 24 month high” $54.00 [email protected] May” $52.00 David Szell $50.00 [email protected] “U.S. $48.00 Inventories and $46.00 Production Rise “U.S. Shale $44.00 Again” Production $42.00 Growth Slows” $40.00 “2017 was a year of 10-Jul-17 20-Jul-17 30-Jul-17 01-Jan-17 11-Jan-17 21-Jan-17 31-Jan-17 10-Jun-17 20-Jun-17 30-Jun-17 08-Oct-17 18-Oct-17 28-Oct-17 01-Apr-17 11-Apr-17 21-Apr-17 10-Feb-17 20-Feb-17 08-Sep-17 18-Sep-17 28-Sep-17 09-Aug-17 19-Aug-17 29-Aug-17 07-Nov-17 12-Mar-17 22-Mar-17 02-Mar-17 recovery, and we’re 31-May-17 01-May-17 11-May-17 21-May-17 looking forward to 2017 In the Rearview YTD - Nov. Rig Count Growth by Basin a very active M&A The top Energy story in 2017 will be the precipitous rise in oil prices in the back half of *Other 55 market in 2018” the year. Since hitting a low price of $42.53 in Williston 16 June, WTI has risen 36% to $57.69 in November. The rise has perpetuated a strong Permian 112 Duane Donner drilling environment for U.S. domestic shale Managing Partner, plays. Rig counts have risen commensurately in Marcellus 2 2017 – topping 958 at the peak, a 137% Founders Advisors Haynesville 12 increase from 2016 lows. The majority of the drilling activity continues to be in low cost Eagle Ford 18 basins, as E&P operators prepare for a “lower for longer” oil price energy environment. Cana Woodford 29 0 50 100 150 *Other Basins includes: Woodford, Barnett, DJ-Niobrara, Fayetteville, Granite Wash, Mississippian, Utica; YTD November 3, 1027 Oilfield Services Newsletter | November 2017 2017 in the Rearview Mirror… Lower Breakeven Prices Are Driving Activity The United States – The Production Juggernaut $140.00 2013 breakeven 2014 breakeven Permian Eagle Ford Bakken Other WTI Price $120.00 2015 breakeven 2016 breakeven 6,000 $120.00 Avg 2013 Breakeven Avg 2016 Breakeven $100.00 5,000 $100.00 $80.00 4,000 $80.00 $60.00 3,000 $60.00 WTI WTI Price 2,000 $40.00 Breakeven Breakeven Price $40.00 (000’s) (000’s) Barrel per Day 1,000 $20.00 $20.00 - $- $- Permian Permian Bakken Eagle Ford Niobrara Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 May-12 May-14 May-16 Midland Delaware May-10 Energy extraction efficiencies enabled by lower service Shale production efficiencies have allowed U.S. producers to prices and improved processes have lowered wellhead keep production volumes strong, despite energy prices breakeven prices from an estimated average of $80/bbl in being ~60% off 2014 highs. Low cost geographies such as 2013, to less than $35/bbl in 2016. The Permian Midland has the Permian have seen the greatest increase in production experienced the largest decrease, falling by over 60%, from activity, growing 36% from levels achieved in 2014. $98/bbl in 2013 to $38/bbl in 2016. Drilled but Uncompleted Wells (DUC) – 10 Year High Crude Oil Inventories Normalizing in 2017 5 Year Inventory Range 2017 Average Inventory Total Niobrara Bakken Eagle Ford 180,000 Marcellus Permian Other 170,000 2,500 8,000 160,000 2,000 6,000 150,000 1,500 140,000 4,000 1,000 130,000 500 2,000 120,000 Thousands Barrels of - - 110,000 100,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec A lack of completion equipment, personnel, and a need to Crude oil inventories are a leading indicator for global oil meet lease obligations has led to a rise in DUC in 2017. The consumption; higher inventories indicate weaker consumption, Permian basin currently has 2,416 DUCs, which represents and lower inventories indicate stronger consumption. Despite roughly 30% of the total DUC inventory, and 76% of the growth inventories starting at an all time high in 2017, strong global in 2017. Overall, DUC counts have risen over 40% since the demand for the commodity has eaten into inventories in the beginning of 2017. Operators are waiting for higher energy back half of the year. Part of this trend can be explained by prices to rationalize spending the capital required to work production disruptions caused by hurricanes in the United through this inventory. States, but industry professionals largely point to strong YoY consumption growth out of China and India. 2 Source: Rystad Energy, EIA Oilfield Services Newsletter | November 2017 The Look Ahead… Wall Street Journal Price Targets $110 ING Bank $100 J.P. Morgan $90 RBC $80 Standard Chartered $70 UBS $60 Societe Generale $50 Citigroup $40 Deutsche Bank $30 Commerzbank $20 Morgan Stanley $10 BNP Paribas $0 Barclays Bank of America Merrill Lynch In October, a group of investment banks surveyed by WSJ raised their price target for 2018 WTI for the first time in six months. Consensus among the group is that production cuts by OPEC are finally starting to have an impact on the market. Saudi Arabia and Russia, two of the top three oil producers in the world, have been vocal about continuing to make production cuts into the future. With OPEC & non-OPEC compliance at 120% (the highest it has been in nearly 3 years), and strong demand coming out of emerging markets, the global energy market may find equilibrium in 2018. Rig Count Outlook - 2018 Strong Capex Outlook Operating Cash Flow Total Capex 2,000 $175,000 1,800 1,600 $150,000 1,400 $125,000 1,200 Average Capex 1,000 $100,000 800 $75,000 Rig CountRig 600 $50,000 400 200 Cash inFlow Millions $25,000 - $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Q3 2014 Q3 2017 Q4 Q1 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 The oil and gas rig count is forecasted by Wall Street to decline Capital expenditures for E&P companies are expected to rise in ~75 rigs in Q4 of 2017, but rise to over 1,200 by the end of 2017 and 2018; more sustainable cash flows enabled by 2018. The dip in rig count is due to the 15 – 20 week lag in rig reduced breakeven prices are giving operators more count to oil prices; the market is still working off sub $45 oil confidence to put money to work. To note, 2017 E&P capex prices achieved mid-2017. Strong demand out of emerging has increased 96% since 2016. Industry professionals believe in markets should cause global consumption to outstrip global a stable energy environment of $50 - $60 WTI, 2018 Capex is supply, which would lead to further WTI price appreciation. expected to come in around $150 billion, which is 53% more With oil sustainably being above $50, it is expected that E&P than 2017 Capex. companies will resume drilling activity in more non-core shale basins. This should continue to create a strong pricing environment for oilfield service companies over the next 12-24 months. 3 Oilfield Services Newsletter | November 2017 The Look Ahead Continued… Supply – Global Producers of Oil Emerging Markets’ Consumption Driving Demand Global Supply 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 3.0% Projections Non-OPEC Supply 2.5% United States 13.0 13.5% 12.5 12.9% 13.0 13.4% 14.1 14.3% North America (less: US) 7.0 7.2% 6.9 7.1% 7.1 7.3% 7.1 7.2% 2.0% Europe 3.5 3.6% 3.5 3.6% 3.5 3.6% 3.6 3.6% Asia Oceania 0.5 0.5% 0.4 0.4% 0.4 0.4% 0.4 0.4% 1.5% Former Soviet Union* 14.0 14.5% 14.2 14.6% 14.4 14.8% 14.4 14.6% Europe 0.1 0.1% 0.1 0.1% 0.1 0.1% 0.1 0.1% 1.0% China 4.3 4.5% 4.0 4.1% 3.9 4.0% 3.8 3.8% YoY YoY Growth Rate Other Asia 3.6 3.7% 3.6 3.7% 3.5 3.6% 3.4 3.4% 0.5% South Americas 4.6 4.8% 4.5 4.6% 4.6 4.7% 4.8 4.9% Middle East 1.3 1.3% 1.3 1.3% 1.2 1.2% 1.2 1.2% 0.0% Africa 1.8 1.9% 1.7 1.8% 1.7 1.7% 1.8 1.8% 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Other Supply 4.5 4.7% 4.6 4.7% 4.7 4.8% 4.8 4.9% Oil Demand Growth, OECD Total Non-OPEC Supply 58.2 60.2% 57.3 59.1% 58.1 59.7% 59.5 60.2% Oil Demand Growth, Non-OECD Total OPEC 38.4 39.8% 39.6 40.8% 39.2 40.3% 39.3 39.7% Total Oil Demand Growth Total Supply 96.6 100.0% 97.0 100.0% 97.3 100.0% 98.9 100.0% Global supply of oil is expected to rise ~1.5% in 2018.
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