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Iran Escalates Provocations As US Struggles with Response

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Iran Escalates Provocations As US Struggles with Response Egyptian Army’s Turkey’s economic empire missing culture under scrutiny of remembrance Page 11 Page 17 Issue , Year UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com 223 5 September 22, 2019 EU €2.50 Iran escalates provocations as US struggles with response Thomas Seibert Stein, director of the Middle East Programme at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadel- Istanbul phia, wrote on the online foreign policy platform War on Rocks. ashington is strug- “Instead, Iran can safely as- gling to come up sume that Washington will debate with the right answer policy choices hemmed in by po- while Iran raises the litical constraints and vacillate History in the making. UAE astronaut Hazza Al Mansoori gestures in a mock-up of a Soyuz space W stakes in its confrontation with between a limited cruise missile craft at Russian Space Training Centre in Russia, August 30. (AP) the United States and America’s strike or more sanctions. In each allies in the Gulf. case, the regime will not be top- The United States and Saudi pled or seriously threatened.” Arabia had blamed Iran for the As a result, Iran feels embold- Emirati astronauts prepare devastating attacks that tempo- ened. rarily knocked out a good part of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry on Aaron Stein, September 14. Tehran denied the director of the Middle for launch to Space Station accusation. The administration of East Programme at the Foreign Policy US President Donald Trump hesi- Research Institute in tated to strike back militarily or to Philadelphia. Caline Malek ka and US astronaut Jessica Meir on but humanity, too.” commit itself clearly to retaliation an 8-day trip on a Soyuz spacecraft The United Arab Emirates is the against Iran, although it said all “Tehran has the luxury of that will launch from the Baikonur 19th country to send a citizen to options were on the table. assuming that Washington will Dubai Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. the ISS and contribute to scientific Trump seems wary of getting not even consider a large-scale “To send an Emirati astronaut research in space. Mansoori will into a foreign conflict even more invasion of Iranian territory”. he United Arab Emirates’ into space is an incredibly historic be the first person to conduct an than a year before the 2020 US first astronaut, Hazza Al and meaningful step for the United introductory tour in Arabic at the elections. Wars are “very easy to “He is a not a lion, he is a rab- Mansoori, and reserve as- Arab Emirates, a pioneering coun- ISS. start,” he said. bit,” Ali Bigdeli, a political ana- T tronaut Sultan Al Neyadi try that is reviving the region’s leg- Following more than 1,400 hours US network CBS reported that lyst in Tehran, told the New York are preparing for a launch to the acy in space, astronomy and phys- of training and 90 courses within a the drone and missile strikes Times, in reference to Trump. International Space Station. ics,” said Mohammed al-Ahbabi, year, Mansoori’s schedule has him on the Saudi oil infrastructure “This counts as a big boost for A mock mission in August was a director-general of the UAE Space carrying out 16 scientific experi- had been approved by Iranian Iran.” mandatory 2-day final exam for as- Agency. ments in cooperation with interna- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Whatever the degree of Irani- tronauts and cosmonauts at the Ga- “It is of particular pride that UAE tional space agencies. Khamenei but observers said Iran an involvement, the attack “is a garin Cosmonaut Training Centre in space entities like the UAE Space was certain that Trump would not showcase of Iran’s power and in- the Star City, near Moscow, before Agency and the Mohammed Bin (Full version of this article appears on hit back in a way that would jeop- fluence,” Bigdeli added. their lift-off September 25 to the In- Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC) are www.thearabweekly.com) ardise the survival of the regime. ternational Space Station (ISS). leading in the efforts for space ex- “Tehran has the luxury of as- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Mansoori will be accompanied by ploration with a series of projects Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly suming that Washington will not Weekly correspondent. Russian commander Oleg Skripoch- that not only benefit the country contributor in Abu Dhabi. even consider a large-scale inva- sion of Iranian territory,” Aaron P2-3,6,12,19 Arab List steals Tunisia faces aftershocks of populists’ spotlight in triumph in presidential election deadlocked Israeli vote Lamine Ghanmi Tunisian politics. candidate to advance to the second greater, so are the uncertainties, Mamoon Alabbasi Law Professor Kais Saied (pic- round and its shrinking electoral the possibility of more instabil- tured), won the first round as the base, unprecedented expressions ity and lack of trust,” said Musta- Tunis ultimate outsider, with 18.4% of of dissidence emerged challenging pha Kamel Nabli, a former Tuni- he Joint Arab List, which the vote ahead of media magnate the party’s leadership. The Islam- sian minister of development and includes four small parties, t will take a long time for Tu- Nabil Karoui, still in detention, ist party is estimated to have lost World Bank official. won the third-largest num- nisia to deal with the implica- who came second with 15.6% of nearly 1 million voters since 2011. The sense of uncertainty was T ber of parliamentary seats in tions of the quake that shook the ballots cast. A victory by Saied was predict- increased by Saied’s intent, if Israel’s elections September 17. I the political landscape in the Ennahda’s ed in the runoff, leading to wari- elected, to replace the parliamen- The Joint List, led by Ayman first round of presidential elec- Islamists were ness among experts that new pop- tary institution with a system of Odeh, won 13 of the Knesset’s 120 tions. not spared ulist pressures, buttressed by the direct local representation as part seats. The centrist Blue and White The September 15 vote was a tri- post-election youth factor, could make the task of a “new revolutionary transi- alliance of former army chief Benny umph for populists, whose seven fallout. of any future government more tion.” He said his followers are Gantz won 33 seats, while Likud, led candidates won about 55% of the With its difficult. Tunisian pollster Hassan “absolutely not concerned” about by Prime Minister Binyamin Net- vote. None of the modernist can- members Zargouni said 37% of people aged legislative elections scheduled for anyahu, won 31. Either of the two didates won much more than 10% shaken by 18-25 voted for Saied. October 6. parties would have to form alliances of the vote in a race that repudiat- the failure of Distrustful of the political estab- The electoral tremors coincided with smaller parties to secure the 61 ed all centrist parties if not the en- the party’s lishment, many young activists with the death September 19 of seats needed to form a coalition gov- tire political establishment. have used social media to back former Tunisian President Zine el- ernment. A runoff is to be held by Saied as an anti-establishment Abidine Ben Ali. He was buried in For the first time, the Arab list October 13 and legis- candidate. “They mostly know Saudi Arabia where he had lived in could become the country’s official lative elections are what they do not want but have exile since his regime was toppled opposition. to take place October no clear vision of what they in 2011. 6 but the first round want. Let’s just hope nobody is Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy of the presidential manipulating them,” Zargouni Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Managing Editor and Online race has shown that said. Weekly correspondent in Tunis. Editor of The Arab Weekly. nothing will prob- “The risks of a worsen- ably be the same in ing economic situation are P4-5 P16 2 September 22, 2019 Cover Story Attack on Aramco Deniability risky tack in Iran’s foreign policy as US mulls strike Thomas Seibert Istanbul eniability after attacks, such as those on Saudi oil instal- lations, has become a major D tool of Iranian foreign poli- cy. Tehran escalates the conflict with Saudi Arabia and the United States but is careful not to give Washington a convincing reason for retaliatory strikes. This high-risk strategy could end up triggering a conflict anyway, how- ever. US President Donald Trump ac- cused Iran of spreading lies and said his military was “locked and loaded” to respond. The US Department of Defence prepared to give Trump a broad range of military options to answer the attacks in Saudi Arabia that were either carried out or or- chestrated by Iran, US officials said. Both in the latest drone attacks in Saudi Arabia and during a series of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf in May, Iran has rejected responsibil- ity for violent actions that serve as warnings from Tehran. The Iranian leadership is telling its adversaries that a full-blown military escalation Mounting concerns. Saudi Foreign Minister Ibrahim Abdulaziz al-Assaf (2nd L) receives US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) at King would be costly because it could Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, September 18. (AFP) cripple the international oil trade and throw the world economy into crisis. Arabia. We’ll see?” “Plausible deniability is a trade- US Secretary of State Mike Viewpoint mark of Iran’s pushback strategy,” Ali Pompeo, the leading Iran hardliner Vaez, director of the Iran Programme in the US government since the de- at the International Crisis Group, parture of John Bolton as national said by e-mail.
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