Egyptian Army’s Turkey’s economic empire missing culture under scrutiny of remembrance Page 11 Page 17

Issue , Year UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com 223 5 September 22, 2019 EU €2.50 escalates provocations as US struggles with response

Thomas Seibert Stein, director of the Middle East Programme at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadel- Istanbul phia, wrote on the online foreign policy platform War on Rocks. ashington is strug- “Instead, Iran can safely as- gling to come up sume that Washington will debate with the right answer policy choices hemmed in by po- while Iran raises the litical constraints and vacillate History in the making. UAE astronaut Hazza Al Mansoori gestures in a mock-up of a Soyuz space W stakes in its confrontation with between a limited cruise missile craft at Russian Space Training Centre in Russia, August 30. (AP) the United States and America’s strike or more sanctions. In each allies in the Gulf. case, the regime will not be top- The United States and Saudi pled or seriously threatened.” Arabia had blamed Iran for the As a result, Iran feels embold- Emirati astronauts prepare devastating attacks that tempo- ened. rarily knocked out a good part of ’s oil industry on Aaron Stein, September 14. Tehran denied the director of the Middle for launch to Space Station accusation. The administration of East Programme at the Foreign Policy US President Donald Trump hesi- Research Institute in tated to strike back militarily or to Philadelphia. Caline Malek ka and US astronaut Jessica Meir on but humanity, too.” commit itself clearly to retaliation an 8-day trip on a Soyuz spacecraft The is the against Iran, although it said all “Tehran has the luxury of that will launch from the Baikonur 19th country to send a citizen to options were on the table. assuming that Washington will Dubai Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. the ISS and contribute to scientific Trump seems wary of getting not even consider a large-scale “To send an Emirati astronaut research in space. Mansoori will into a foreign conflict even more invasion of Iranian territory”. he United Arab Emirates’ into space is an incredibly historic be the first person to conduct an than a year before the 2020 US first astronaut, Hazza Al and meaningful step for the United introductory tour in at the elections. Wars are “very easy to “He is a not a lion, he is a rab- Mansoori, and reserve as- Arab Emirates, a pioneering coun- ISS. start,” he said. bit,” Ali Bigdeli, a political ana- T tronaut Sultan Al Neyadi try that is reviving the region’s leg- Following more than 1,400 hours US network CBS reported that lyst in Tehran, told the New are preparing for a launch to the acy in space, astronomy and phys- of training and 90 courses within a the drone and missile strikes Times, in reference to Trump. International Space Station. ics,” said Mohammed al-Ahbabi, year, Mansoori’s schedule has him on the Saudi oil infrastructure “This counts as a big boost for A mock mission in August was a director-general of the UAE Space carrying out 16 scientific experi- had been approved by Iranian Iran.” mandatory 2-day final exam for as- Agency. ments in cooperation with interna- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Whatever the degree of Irani- tronauts and cosmonauts at the Ga- “It is of particular pride that UAE tional space agencies. Khamenei but observers said Iran an involvement, the attack “is a garin Cosmonaut Training Centre in space entities like the UAE Space was certain that Trump would not showcase of Iran’s power and in- the Star City, near Moscow, before Agency and the Mohammed Bin (Full version of this article appears on hit back in a way that would jeop- fluence,” Bigdeli added. their lift-off September 25 to the In- Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC) are www.thearabweekly.com) ardise the survival of the regime. ternational Space Station (ISS). leading in the efforts for space ex- “Tehran has the luxury of as- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Mansoori will be accompanied by ploration with a series of projects Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly suming that Washington will not Weekly correspondent. Russian commander Oleg Skripoch- that not only benefit the country contributor in Abu Dhabi. even consider a large-scale inva- sion of Iranian territory,” Aaron P2-3,6,12,19 Arab List steals faces aftershocks of populists’ spotlight in triumph in presidential election deadlocked Israeli vote Lamine Ghanmi Tunisian politics. candidate to advance to the second greater, so are the uncertainties, Mamoon Alabbasi Law Professor Kais Saied (pic- round and its shrinking electoral the possibility of more instabil- tured), won the first round as the base, unprecedented expressions ity and lack of trust,” said Musta- ultimate outsider, with 18.4% of of dissidence emerged challenging pha Kamel Nabli, a former Tuni- he Joint Arab List, which the vote ahead of media magnate the party’s leadership. The - sian minister of development and includes four small parties, t will take a long time for Tu- , still in detention, ist party is estimated to have lost World Bank official. won the third-largest num- nisia to deal with the implica- who came second with 15.6% of nearly 1 million voters since 2011. The sense of uncertainty was T ber of parliamentary seats in tions of the quake that shook the ballots cast. A victory by Saied was predict- increased by Saied’s intent, if Israel’s elections September 17. I the political landscape in the Ennahda’s ed in the runoff, leading to wari- elected, to replace the parliamen- The Joint List, led by Ayman first round of presidential elec- Islamists were ness among experts that new pop- tary institution with a system of Odeh, won 13 of the Knesset’s 120 tions. not spared ulist pressures, buttressed by the direct local representation as part seats. The centrist Blue and White The September 15 vote was a tri- post-election youth factor, could make the task of a “new revolutionary transi- alliance of former army chief Benny umph for populists, whose seven fallout. of any future government more tion.” He said his followers are Gantz won 33 seats, while Likud, led candidates won about 55% of the With its difficult. Tunisian pollster Hassan “absolutely not concerned” about by Prime Minister Binyamin Net- vote. None of the modernist can- members Zargouni said 37% of people aged legislative elections scheduled for anyahu, won 31. Either of the two didates won much more than 10% shaken by 18-25 voted for Saied. October 6. parties would have to form alliances of the vote in a race that repudiat- the failure of Distrustful of the political estab- The electoral tremors coincided with smaller parties to secure the 61 ed all centrist parties if not the en- the party’s lishment, many young activists with the death September 19 of seats needed to form a coalition gov- tire political establishment. have used social media to back former Tunisian President Zine el- ernment. A runoff is to be held by Saied as an anti-establishment Abidine Ben Ali. He was buried in For the first time, the Arab list October 13 and legis- candidate. “They mostly know Saudi Arabia where he had lived in could become the country’s official lative elections are what they do not want but have exile since his regime was toppled opposition. to take place October no clear vision of what they in 2011. 6 but the first round want. Let’s just hope nobody is Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy of the presidential manipulating them,” Zargouni Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Managing Editor and Online race has shown that said. Weekly correspondent in Tunis. Editor of The Arab Weekly. nothing will prob- “The risks of a worsen- ably be the same in ing economic situation are P4-5 P16 2 September 22, 2019 Cover Story Attack on Aramco Deniability risky tack in Iran’s foreign policy as US mulls strike

Thomas Seibert

Istanbul

eniability after attacks, such as those on Saudi oil instal- lations, has become a major D tool of Iranian foreign poli- cy. Tehran escalates the conflict with Saudi Arabia and the United States but is careful not to give Washington a convincing reason for retaliatory strikes. This high-risk strategy could end up triggering a conflict anyway, how- ever. US President Donald Trump ac- cused Iran of spreading lies and said his military was “locked and loaded” to respond. The US Department of Defence prepared to give Trump a broad range of military options to answer the attacks in Saudi Arabia that were either carried out or or- chestrated by Iran, US officials said. Both in the latest drone attacks in Saudi Arabia and during a series of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf in May, Iran has rejected responsibil- ity for violent actions that serve as warnings from Tehran. The Iranian leadership is telling its adversaries that a full-blown military escalation Mounting concerns. Saudi Foreign Minister Ibrahim Abdulaziz al-Assaf (2nd L) receives US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) at King would be costly because it could Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, September 18. (AFP) cripple the international oil trade and throw the world economy into crisis. Arabia. We’ll see?” “Plausible deniability is a trade- US Secretary of State Mike Viewpoint mark of Iran’s pushback strategy,” Ali Pompeo, the leading Iran hardliner Vaez, director of the Iran Programme in the US government since the de- at the International Crisis Group, parture of John Bolton as national said by e-mail. “Iran wants to show security adviser, said: “Tehran is ‘Locked and loaded,’ US still that, instead of a win-lose contest, behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Iran can turn this into a lose-lose dy- Arabia while Rohani and [Foreign namic for everyone.” Minister Mohammad Javad] Zarif Leaders in Tehran underpin the pretend to engage in diplomacy. reluctant to directly challenge Iran message with warnings by them- Amid all the calls for de-escalation, selves, especially since the United Iran has now launched an unprece- States stepped up its “maximum dented attack on the world’s energy doubting willingness of the United Islamic Republic of Iran. Second, pressure” campaign to prevent Iran supply. There is no evidence the at- States, under Trump, to come to its negotiation will demonstrate from selling oil on world markets. If tacks came from .” defence, pretends there is need for success of the maximum pressure Iran’s oil exports are cut to zero, in- Pompeo, however, did not pre- Ali Alfoneh a UN investigation of the incident policy of the United States.” ternational waterways will not have sent evidence that Iran was behind to identify the culprit. However, Khamenei also the same security as before, Iranian the attacks. US Vice-President Mike A disappointment in Riyadh, opened a path for Trump: “If the President Hassan Rohani warned in Pence reiterated Trump’s com- he United States is Trump’s reaction to the attacks United States… returns to the August. ments that “we don’t want war “locked and loaded,” manifestly boosted the self- nuclear agreement, which it has Iran has got away with its method with anybody but the United States US President Donald confidence of Iranian Supreme violated… then it can participate so far. Its foes have been unable to is prepared.” Trump tweeted after Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. as the signatories convene to present undeniable evidence to link US Senator Lindsey Graham, a the attacks on the Addressing theological students on engage in talks with Iran. He, too, Tehran to violent acts. The United Republican from South Carolina, Abqaiq and Khurais September 17, Khamenei dismissed can participate in those talks, States and other players find it diffi- wrote on Twitter after the drone at- oilT refinery complexes in Saudi the idea of negotiations with the without any negotiation taking cult to put together an international tacks in Saudi Arabia that “Iran will Arabia but added: “[the United United States: “Negotiating with place between Islamic Republic consensus about Iran’s culpability to not stop their misbehaviour until States is] waiting to hear from the America means the United States authorities and the Americans.” justify retaliatory military strikes. the consequences become more [Saudis] as to who they believe imposing its demands on the Khamenei’s dismissal of Iran-US Following the Saudi attacks, the Eu- real, like attacking their refiner- was the cause of this attack and negotiations must be taken with ropean Union called for “maximum ies, which will break the regime’s under what terms we should a grain of salt. Khamenei made restraint,” a reference to Trump’s back.” Graham called on the United proceed!” similar statements when receiving “maximum pressure” strategy. China States “to put on the table an attack Responding to Trump’s tweet, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo also urged the United States and Iran on Iranian oil refineries if they con- the Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a Abe in June. Those statements to “exercise restraint… in the absence tinue their provocations or increase circumspect statement indicating did not prevent Iranian President of a conclusive investigation or ver- nuclear enrichment.” that Iranian weapons were used Hassan Rohani and Iranian Foreign dict.” Zarif warned an attack by the in the attacks but, instead of Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif The Tehran-backed Houthi rebels United States or Saudi Arabia would holding Tehran responsible, the from pursuing the idea of a in Yemen, where a Saudi-led coali- spark an “all-out war” in the Middle Saudis said they would “invite summit between the presidents tion is bogged down in a 5-year- East. The Iranian foreign minister UN and international experts of the United States and Iran. old war, claimed the September left for New York, Iranian state tel- to view the situation on the In this light, the attacks 14 strikes on two plants owned by evision said, after Iran’s UN mission ground and participate in the against Abqaiq and Khurais oil Saudi energy giant Aramco. Tehran confirmed that the United States investigations.” refinery complexes in Saudi said accusations that Iran was be- had issued visas allowing Rohani The cautious Saudi approach Arabia make better sense. hind the action were “fruitless and and Zarif to attend the UN General is understandable. Addressing Aware of Trump’s disinclination blind” as well as “incomprehensi- Assembly. the media along with Bahraini to entangle the United States ble and meaningless.” A day after the attacks, the White Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad in military adventures in the That has not prevented Washing- House said Trump may still meet al-Khalifa on September 16, Trump Middle East, Tehran is trying to ton from mulling military action, with Rohani at the United Nations was asked if he had “promised improve its negotiating position however. but Tehran said it did not think the Saudis that the US will protect vis-a-vis Washington. Iran and its “Saudi Arabia oil supply was at- “such a thing would happen.” them in this case.” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps tacked. There is reason to believe Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed In a bizarre response, even run the risk of crossing Trump’s that we know the culprit, are locked bin Salman bin Abdulaziz has said by this American president’s redline and provoking a war with and loaded depending on verifica- the kingdom is “willing and able” standards, Trump responded: the United States, which Iran can tion but are waiting to hear from to respond to this “terrorist aggres- “No, I haven’t. I haven’t promised ill afford. the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia] as sion.” the Saudis that. We have to sit For the time being, however, to who they believe was the cause However, at least in the immedi- down with the Saudis and work Trump appears as lax about his red of this attack and under what terms ate aftermath of the attacks, a tit- something out and the Saudis want lines, if he indeed has any, as his we would proceed!” Trump posted for-tat strike by Saudi Arabia on very much for us to protect them predecessor in office. This means on Twitter. Iranian oil fields remained “highly but I say, well, we have to work. more provocations from Tehran. Trump added a reference to an unlikely,” Middle East expert James That was an attack on Saudi Arabia Locked and loaded the US military incident this year when Iran said Dorsey told Agence -Presse. and that wasn’t an attack on us.” may be but, as long as Trump it shot down a US drone in its air- “The Saudis do not want an In other words, the president Mixed signals. US President remains hesitant, US Arab allies are space. open conflict with Iran. The Saudis of the United States delegates Donald Trump (L) walks next left to their own devices. “They stuck strongly to that story would like others to fight that war, decisions on war and peace to a to new national security knowing that it was a very big lie,” and the others are reluctant,” said foreign power and that foreign adviser Robert O’Brien at Los Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at Trump wrote about the Iranians. Dorsey, from the S. Rajaratnam power, unwilling to get directly Angeles International Airport, the Arab Gulf States Institute in “Now they say that they had noth- School of International Studies in involved in war, and justifiably September 18. (AFP) Washington. ing to do with the attack on Saudi Singapore. September 22, 2019 3 Cover Story Attack on Aramco

US cautious, What’s behind Trump’s statements about ambivalent towards avoiding war with Iran?

attacked the United States. Only 5% of respondents said they wanted Iran’s alleged attacks the United States to declare war on Gregory Aftandilian Iran. Emily Przyborowski spokesman Jonathan Hoffman I do not think the Saudis will play Trump has admonished some said the Trump administration into Iran’s hands by encouraging of his fellow Republicans in the was waiting for confirmation from direct armed conflict,” Shihabi said espite his tough rheto- US Congress for speaking about Washington the Saudi government that the at- After Pompeo’s trip to the Mid- ric against the Iranian the need for a military response tack had been carried out by Iran dle East, the tack of caution and regime and his occa- to the recent attacks on Saudi oil ore than a week after before engaging in any action. ambivalence is likely to continue sional sabre-rattling, facilities. He pushed back against the attack on Aramco Hoffman acknowledged that evi- even if it runs against Trump’s especially considering a statement by Republican Senator oil installations in Saudi dence indicated Iran was “in some threatening rhetoric, especially if what were likely Ira- Lindsey Graham — usually a M Arabia, which many US way responsible.” A forensic team evidence against Iran in the Ara- Dnian attacks on Saudi oil facilities, steadfast Trump ally in Congress — and Saudi officials attributed to from US Central Command was mco attack seems damning. US President Donald Trump has who has advocated a US strike on Iran, US President Donald Trump sent to investigate the attack and Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the emphasised that he wants to avoid an Iranian oil facility. continued to pursue his politics of determine its origin. Foundation for Defense of De- war with Tehran. Also, it has been widely reported ambivalence vis-a-vis Tehran. Ali Shihabi, founder of the Ara- mocracies, said Trump’s response The question arises as to why he that Trump fired national security Trump announced “unprec- bia Foundation think-tank in to Iran has been atypical. He said is seemingly taking the war option adviser John Bolton largely because edented” sanctions on the Iranian Washington, said: “The attack on Trump “is being very cautious off the table. After all, countries Bolton was too hawkish on Iran national bank that, he said, are Aramco was a direct result of the about signalling intentions and such as Iran would only fear the and strongly opposed the idea of an the highest sanctions imposed on US maximum pressure campaign taking a more measured approach United States if they believe US easing of sanctions to bring about a a country in history. US Treasury on Iran.” that was very un-Trumpian.” threats are credible. If not, they US-Iran presidential meeting. Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the The attack was apparently Trump seems to be aware he is could perceive the United States as Instead, Trump has indicated he new sanctions target “a crucial among a series of strikes on Saudi acting outside his usual script. He a toothless tiger. will try to put together a coalition funding mechanism that the Ira- oil infrastructure but is considered admitted there was expectation he Why would Trump seem at the United Nations to deter Iran nian regime uses to support its ter- the largest because it led to the dis- would attack Iran “within two sec- eager for a meeting with Iranian from military attacks and will put rorist network, including al-Quds ruption of an estimated 5.7 million onds” but said there’s “plenty of President Hassan Rohani, given even tougher sanctions on Tehran. Force, Hezbollah and other mili- barrels of crude oil a day, leading time” for that. that there is very little likelihood Such policies would sit well with tants that spread terror and desta- to a spike in global crude oil prices. that the Iranians would agree the American people. bilise the region.” Iran-backed Houthi rebels took Emily Przyborowski is an Arab to zero nuclear enrichment as a By taking the multilateral route The sanctions follow the Sep- responsibility for the attacks but Weekly correspondent in Wash- condition for a new deal and a through the United Nations, he tember 14 strike that hit Saudi Ara- the claim was not deemed cred- ington. possible rapprochement with the denies the Democrats in Congress mco oil installations in Abqaiq and ible. US officials seem convinced United States? and on the campaign trail an issue Khurais in Saudi’s Eastern prov- Iran was behind the attack. The reasons are partly political, to exploit. Democrats have harped ince. The sophisticated attacks in- US Secretary of State Mike partly bureaucratic and partly on the theme that Trump has cluded cruise missiles and drones Pompeo, posting on Twitter on An estimated egotistical. shown disdain for international and cut Saudi oil production in September 14, said: “Tehran is be- Concerning the political, Trump organisations. half. hind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi 5.7 million is very much focused on the On the bureaucratic side, the Trump says he does not “want Arabia while [Iranian President 2020 presidential campaign. He Pentagon does not seem eager war with anybody” but he seems Hassan] Rohani and [Iranian For- barrels of crude oil a understands that the American to enter into a war with Iran, keen also on telling the world he eign Minister Mohammad Javad] day were disrupted, public became very disillusioned particularly in response to a is not ruling out military action Zarif pretend to engage in diplo- leading to a spike in with the war of 2003, which situation such as the attacks against Iran. macy. Amid calls for de-escalation, cost much blood and treasure and on the Saudi oil facilities where Iran has now launched an unprec- global crude oil prices. does not want a repeat of another there were no US casualties. The Trump seems to be aware he edented attack on the world’s en- Middle East war. Washington Post reported that ergy supply. There is no evidence In 2016, he called the Iraq war a US military officials are “privately is acting outside his usual the attacks came from Yemen.” great strategic mistake and hit his urging caution, seeking to defuse script. He admitted there Iran denied responsibility for Republican rival, former Florida tensions they believe could push was expectation he would the attack and threatened “all-out Governor Jeb Bush, hard for the United States into a possibly attack Iran “within two war” if attacked. James Jay Carafa- equivocating on whether he would bloody conflict with Iran at a time seconds” but said there’s no, vice-president at the Heritage have followed his brother’s (George when the Pentagon is seeking to “plenty of time” for that. Foundation think-tank in Wash- W. Bush’s) policies in 2003. Trump wind down insurgent wars in the ington, said Tehran’s threats, how- understood better than most of his Middle East and reorient towards The Pentagon has presented ever, are not backed with an ability rivals that the American people were competition with China.” Trump with military, political and to engage in direct military con- tired of getting involved in military Military officials are concerned economic options, including a list frontation with the United States. conflicts in the region and made that that the approximately 70,000 of potential targets in Iran. Trump “Iran knows it isn’t capable of issue a campaign theme in 2016. US troops stationed in the Middle authorised a military strike in June fighting and winning a war with Trump is undoubtedly following East could be vulnerable to attacks in retaliation to Iran’s shooting the United States,” he said. “The the polls and sees no change in “if tensions with Iran spin out of down of an US surveillance drone mullahs are keenly aware that a the American public’s sentiments control.” but called off the attack at the last major conflict with the West would on this issue. Even though most Hence, without the strong minute, citing the risk of killing spell the collapse of their regime.” Americans do not like the Iranian backing of the Pentagon, it would “dozens” of Iranians. A solo showdown with Iran does regime, they do not war with it. be difficult for Trump to launch a US Defence Secretary Mark Es- not seem to be part of Saudi strat- After the Iranian attack on a US war with Iran, despite his role as per announced a deployment of egy, either. “It is in Saudi Arabia’s drone over the Strait of Hormuz commander-in-chief. In this case, troops and equipment to Saudi interest for this maximum pres- in June, a Harvard CAPS/Harris however, it seems the Pentagon Arabia and the Emirates to support sure policy on Iran to continue and Poll survey indicated that 57% of and Trump are on the same Arab Gulf countries’ air and missile its Iran’s strategy to ignite a war those asked said they opposed a wavelength. defence. where everybody suffers leading military confrontation with Iran Last, Trump seems to have an US Department of Defence to a removal of sanctions. Hence, unless it was clear that Iran had inflated sense of his own powers of persuasion when it comes to negotiating with foreign leaders. Dangerous turn. Saudi military spokesman Colonel He somehow believes, for example, Turki al-Malki displays wreckage of an Iranian cruise that he could persuade North missile used in an attack that targeted Saudi Arabia’s oil Korean leader Kim Jong-un to industry, in Riyadh, September 18. (AP) give up his nuclear weapons when the public assessment of the US intelligence community is that such an outcome is unlikely. Similarly, Trump believes that he can persuade Rohani to accept a deal in which Iran completely gives up its nuclear programme and desists from proxy wars in the region. Trump does not seem to understand that negotiating with foreign leaders is not a business transaction but involves intangible things such as national pride. Although there is very little likelihood that there will be a Trump-Rohani meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the fact that Trump seriously considered such a bilateral meeting underscores how much he wants to avoid a war with Iran.

Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer in the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University and a former US State Department Middle East analyst. 4 September 22, 2019 News & Analysis Tunisian Elections

Islamists scramble to control damage from election defeat

Lamine Ghanmi a religious draw cementing its posi- tion with the grassroots. They also gave the party a cushion against ad- Tunis versity at home and abroad. Some in the United States and Europe unisia’s Islamist Ennahda have considered banning Muslim Movement is scrambling to Brotherhood-affiliated organisa- close ranks and initiate pre- tions. Despite denying links to the T emptive shifts following the Brotherhood, the moves have con- first round of presidential elections. cerned Ennahda. Drawing lessons from the triumph Unprecedented challenges to En- of political outsider Kais Saied over nahda’s leadership emerged after 25 other candidates, including En- the first round of the presidential nahda’s . En- election with Mourou’s third-place nahda is supporting Saied in the finish considered by many Islam- runoff and radicalising its rhetoric. ists to be a defeat for the party and “The party has decided to sup- Ghannouchi being asked for the port candidate Kais Saied because first time publicly to step down and he is close to the spirit of the revo- “go home.” lution and with clean hands,” said Ghannouchi was assailed af- Faces of defeat. Ennahda’s presidential candidate Abdelfattah Mourou (L) and Ennahda Party leader Mohamed Ben Salem, a senior En- ter Saied, with neither a party nor give a joint news conference in Tunis, September 17. (AFP) nahda official. strong campaign support, and me- Ennahda is joining other conserva- dia tycoon Nabil Karoui, in jail on tive and Islamist candidates, includ- charges of money laundering and issue” needed a decision by the back to “the revolution demands of Abdelhamid Jelassi and Mohamed ing former Tunisian President Mon- tax evasion, advanced to the presi- party’s policy-making body, Majlis freedom, dignity and jobs,” giving Ben Salem, from the parliamentary cef Marzouki, former Prime Minister dential election runoff. Al-Shura. top priority to deals with the coun- lists. They responded by complain- Hamadi Jebali and Lotfi Mraihi, in The first salvo came from Zoubeir “Voting and backing Kais Saied in try’s old business and political elites ing of Ghannouchi’s “unfairness” expressing support for Saied. Shehoudi, a senior Ennahda official the second round is the stand dic- to secure more influence in the gov- and “dictatorship.” Ben Salem said: who was formerly Ghannouchi’s tated by the duty to be faithful to ernment and more “respectability “There are mercenaries within En- chief-of-staff, who wrote: “I ask the triumph of the revolution and and acceptance” abroad. nahda and it is only fair that the ex- Questions are raised him (Ghannouchi) to resign from its goals,” said Mekki. Saied’s electoral win was seen as ecutive leadership be held account- about the implications politics and stay home.” Ennahda’s supporters have been a vindication of their political po- able.” of the decision to back Shehoudi accused Ghannouchi of also worried about their party’s sitions and a repudiation of Ghan- Ghannouchi had planned to strike Saied and underlying being surrounded by “a corrupt and apparent shrinking electoral base. nouchi’s strategy for the elections. a deal with a “friendly” presiden- tial candidate outside Ennahda political shift on corrupting minority in the party’s Mourou’s 12.9% of the votes in Ghannouchi tried to catch up, leadership.” the first round represented about saying the party should back the who could back him to be the next Ennahda’s domestic “I urge him to remove from the 435,000 ballots cast. The party candidate who is “closer to the line head of state but that strategy was alliances and foreign party his son-in-law Rafik Abdessa- claimed 1.5 million votes in 2011 and of the revolution,” an implicit refer- upended when Caid Essebsi died policy stands. lem and all other leaders who forged 1 million in 2014. ence to Saied. in office July 25, prompting the re- the willingness of big voters and “The outcome of the elections The protest mood adds pressure scheduling of presidential elections It is reverting to its pre-2013 “rev- waged a suppression drive to emp- confirmed the declining of Ennah- on Ghannouchi, already criticised from November to before the parlia- olutionary” narrative away from its ty the party of opinion dissidents da’s electoral base as it lost around for single-handedly setting the ment vote. previous policy of accommodation whether they are youth, women or 1 million voters in eight years,” said party’s policies and deciding who Tunisian experts said they expect of secularists, best illustrated by historical leaders,” Shehoudi added political analyst Zied Krichen. among Ennahda’s leaders should Ennahda’s traditional voters, as the arrangement between Ennahda in a rare open letter. Much of the party’s decline has run in the next parliamentary elec- well as radical fundamentalists, to President Rached Ghannouchi and Ennahda’s support for Saied’s to do with Ennahda’s lacklustre tions. support Saied in the runoff because late Tunisian President Beji Caid Es- candidacy is meant to contain an- performance in government and its His immediate challenge is to many consider Karoui tainted with sebsi. other source of dissension after at policies since 2011 but to pre-empt win a seat for himself in parliamen- suspicion of corruption. Ennahda is trying to restore the least two Ennahda leaders stepped any further fallout on the party’s tary elections October 6 in a Tunis But questions are raised about the assets that helped the party present outside a cardinal party rule of standing, disgruntled figures within district where Ennahda members implications of the decision to back itself as immune to infighting that waiting for orders from the top be- Ennahda are pushing for a return to and officials had named Mekki as Saied and underlying political shift ripped through many modernist fore going public in such matters as a “revolutionary” narrative, which Ennahda’s candidate until Ghan- on Ennahda’s domestic alliances and leftist groups in Tunisia. whom to back in the second round. the party had toned down during nouchi, who reportedly wants to be and foreign policy stands. “What’s Such assets have included a sta- Ennahda senior official Abdel- the last eight years. parliament speaker, put himself in new is the political positioning con- ble and disciplined base, unified top latif Mekki urged the Islamists to Mekki and other Ennahda leaders the contest instead. fusion and the attempt at introduc- command that damped down inter- support Saied in the runoff despite apparently sense being safe in criti- Ghannouchi excluded other ing a 180-degree shift in political nal divisions and the advantage of Ennahda saying “such a strategic cising Ghannouchi for turning his leading Ennahda figures, such as positions,” said Krichen.

Viewpoint How social media helped Kais Saied beat the competition

early all observers and private rights. rise to that of the district, then Saied, there is going to be an un- and analysts in These pages reflected the the delegation, then to the level precedented revolutionary spirit Tunisia were taken burning yearning of their young of the governorate and then to the different from everything that the Habib Lassoued by surprise by the owners for a power option that is central authority. country had seen before. victory of constitu- neither the result of the tradi- They do not acknowledge cur- We should banish the thought tional law Professor tional power oligarchy nor of the rent electoral law or electoral lists that the armies of supporters be- NKais Saied in the first round of opposition, an option that rejects but believe in the active indi- hind Saied, despite their diversity the country’s presidential the prevailing and current expres- vidual as a starting point for the and ideological references, will be election sions of power and consecrates a implementation of the popular expressing the opinions of the En- Saied’s victory was a virtual new vision of authority, state and choice to achieve real representa- nahda Movement or of the ultra- earthquake in Tunisian politi- society. tion of society. Islamist Hizb ut-Tahrir or of the cal circles. It shook the classical This alternative vision would The activists achieved what the leftist or other radical currents. power structure at Carthage Pal- perhaps be closest to the politi- powerful party machines have These are groups of educated ace, confirmed the popular failure cal thinking of ’s Muammar not achieved. This cyber-army en- and angry young idealists who of the political parties and other Qaddafi at the beginning of his sured the unprecedented victory believe they can change the coalitions, confounded pundits political project to establish what of their candidate. country’s political, social and and forecasters and opened a new he had called direct democracy The cyber-armies, which num- economic realities just as easily era welcomed by some and feared along the lines of full national ber about 600,000, behind Saied as they have undone the prevail- by others. sovereignty, nationalisation of will not stop at their September ing electoral balances. They hold If Saied wins the second round wealth and rejection of the cul- 15 victory. If their candidate wins themselves above the existing of the elections, all Tunisians will ture of traditional parliamentary the next round and becomes parties and even greater than have to live with the consequenc- representation. president, they will have a bigger the authorities themselves and es of his peculiarities. To this end, a smart scheme uti- role ahead of them. beyond the prevailing and the Facebook has become an es- lising Facebook centred on dedi- What they will do is focus on traditional system. sential tool for the manufacturing cated closed groups run by the submitting their initiatives to the If they reach their objective in Young idealists hold of presidents in Tunisia and pages mastermind of the technical pro- newly elected president who will the second round, Tunisians will themselves above the bearing Saied’s name, pictures cess. The young activists support- present them to the parliament as have to be ready to follow what and quotes mushroomed on that ing Saied created networks at the constitutional initiatives, know- these armies of young people existing parties and platform. local, regional and national levels, ing these initiatives might not be will be pushing for. Indeed, they even greater than the There were many quotes at- which were difficult to penetrate adopted by the partisan blocs in might introduce great changes, authorities tributed to him bearing the flame or even find. They made them the parliament. not just in Tunisia but in the of nationalistic and revolution- the nucleus of a project aiming When the president’s initiatives whole region. themselves and ary discourse about hot topics at radically changing the existing are rejected, the cyber-activists The question is: What kind of beyond the prevailing in Tunisia, such as sovereignty regime that has been in place for will resort to public pressure changes? and wealth, national decision, more than 60 years, through the through systematic popular and the traditional social justice, transitional justice, creation of communes that start movements across the country to Habib Lassoued is a Tunisian system. national reconciliation and public at the level of the neighbourhood, bring about change. Thus, under writer. September 22, 2019 5 Profile Tunisian Elections The many faces of Kais Saied

however, acted as though he knew the event was staged and did not bat an eyelid. “Are you Iman Zayat finished?” he quipped to one of the hosts with a smile midway through the ordeal. n an expression of disen- Saied’s second key attribute chantment with Tunisia’s is his ability to capitalise on political class, voters dramatic political developments eschewed traditional to advance his agenda. A prime political figures in presiden- example is Saied’s reaction to tial elections September 15, the assassinations of prominent choosingI two outsiders to advance leftist leaders Chokri Belaid and to a runoff in October. Mohamed Brahmi in 2013, seen as Finishing first with 18.4% of the watershed moments in Tunisia’s vote was enigmatic law professor democracy. Kais Saied. The second to move on While people were gathered in the presidential race was media for Brahmi’s funeral, Saied used mogul Nabil Karoui, who is behind the opportunity to spell out his bars on charges of money launder- political vision. He hoped to see ing, with 15.6%. No other candidate “a new temporary regulation of earned more than 12.9% of the vote. public authorities ahead of new Karoui’s win was no surprise. elections governed by new laws Last June, he founded a party called different from those adopted in Qalb Tounes, which was joined by 2011,” he said, arguing that the old significant political figures, includ- laws were to blame for the dark ing former Nidaa Tounes officials political climate. such as Ridha Charfeddine. Saied also spoke of the need After Karoui’s detention, his wife, for people to rally around “a new Salwa Smaoui, and his Nessma leadership from outside the es- television channel campaigned on tablishment” and advocated for a Presidential candidate Kais Saied, Tunisian jurist and professor of his behalf, building on his image radical decentralisation of power Man of contradictions. (DPA) as a champion of the poor, rural with local democratic forces. constitutional law, poses for a picture at his office in Tunis, September 16. communities seen as forgotten by Sound familiar? Those are the the elite. same reforms Saied is campaign- It is clear Saied’s electoral Facebook groups, to advance his Sharia as terrorist organisations. Saied’s campaign could not have ing on in 2019. They are not new campaign did not start in 2019, as cause. The most prominent of these The question remains: Who is been more different. No one, except ideas that he recently arrived many believe, but began more than are: “Against the Machine,” “The Kais Saied? Is he simply a smart those with access to opinion polls upon after consulting with youth, six years ago with the help of the Supporters of Kais Saied” and the strategist with nuanced positions, banned from publication since July, as he has claimed, but old ideas unsuspecting traditional media “Tunisian Youth Movement.” In or a populist who combines the saw the man coming. Saied’s mete- that have been thrust back into outlets that broadcast his messages one day before the first round of most dangerous elements of both oric ascent raised questions about the mainstream. and disseminated his ideas before presidential elections, these social the right and the left? his campaign strat- being attacked by his so-called media cells doubled their activity Looking at the candidate’s plat- egy, his network anti-system supporters and called on their followers to form in depth, it is clear that many of supporters, today. spread Saied’s message across the of his ideas on governance, focused his platform Saied used the internet. on decentralisation, horizontality, and his am- establishment, in- Since its creation in April the popular assemblies, social economy bitions. cluding the elec- National Tunisian Youth Movement and direct democracy, are far-left toral regulations political party, with a Facebook in nature. At the same time, Saied of 2011 and the page that has nearly 300,000 fol- promotes a brand of rigid social traditional lowers, has been an especially im- conservatism that is far to the right. media he is portant tool. Headed by Thameur It is this paradox — perhaps a currently Badida, a shadowy US-based Tu- uniquely Tunisian one — that has avoid- nisian who says he was stripped of created a new political current. ing, to his nationality because of his work Saied is neither an Islamist nor target the as an opposition activist, the move- an anarchist. He’s neither a liberal establish- ment has been unequivocal in its nor a socialist. He simply cannot be ment itself support for Saied and has mobilised defined. Saied and try to its members to vote in 2019 par- has change it from liamentary elections for lists that portrayed the inside. the party is participating with and Without being himself as an A third factor in Saied’s rise sympathetic figures that could help reported on “independent,” anti-establish- is his ability to play on emotions, Saied push through legislation. ment candidate, disconnected even if he doesn’t display them. Since the election, pro-Saied extensively in the from the political, media and Saied repeatedly speaks to Tuni- groups and pages have been even media, Saied, with his cultural elite that the public sians’ hearts but never their minds. more active, calling on users to cre- has grown disillusioned with. He rails against the West, depicting ate new accounts or hand over old contradictory and However, that is just the tip of its powers as occupiers and oppres- accounts and pages to increase on- inconsistent the iceberg. sors, and speaks against normalisa- line activity and flood the web with discourse, managed A survey of Saied’s cam- tion with Israel to sell the hope of posts supportive of their candidate. paign appearances and liberating the Palestinians. Saied’s influence on social media to reassure everyone internet support groups How would that be possible? How was exemplified by popular back- — left, right, young, reveals four key factors can Tunisia, with its modest army lash against media channel Elhiwar that could shed light on and socio-economic problems, Ettounsi. The Tunisian TV channel’s old, educated and his unlikely rise. affect change in the Palestinian Facebook page lost more than 1 mil- uneducated. The first is his ability to territories? That is not important if lion followers in 24 hours after one remain composed under we’re speaking to hearts. of its journalists criticised Saied’s However, to depict the man as pressure and not reveal his Saied also uses tactics of fear- electoral programme. a revolutionary leader is equally emotions. This became clear mongering and exclusion to rally A door-to-door approach helped misguided. During all the long years during Saied’s first appearance support. While everyone agrees Saied kill two birds with one stone: he spent in academia, Saied never on national television shortly with his claim that “Tunisia is First, he saved money by not pur- levelled even the mildest criticism after the 2011 uprising. Com- heading towards a critical junc- chasing advertising or extravagant against the now ousted regime of menting on the challenges that ture,” his contention that the politi- campaign posters that are often former President Zine el-Abidine Tunisia’s National Constituent cal class is attempting to “trans- criticised by the Tunisian elector- Ben Ali. Assembly would face, Saied form their bickering and fights into ate as a waste of resources. At the The real surprise is not that was ridiculed on social a national conflict” and trigger same time, he gave himself space Kais Saied succeeded in Tunisia’s media for his unusual “internal turmoil” is hardly logical. to speak with people privately presidential elections — we’ve gone manner of speech and Tunisia, for all its troubles, and tell them exactly what they through many of the factors that robotic-like posture. organised free elections in 2011 and wanted to hear, depending on their explain why. The criticism unphased 2014 followed by peaceful transi- political affiliation, social class and The real surprise will be who him. In later appearances he tions of power and calls by elites region. Kais Saied shows himself to be if remained remarkably calm, from across the spectrum for unity Without being reported on ex- he becomes president. How will composed and capable and cohesion. Saied wants the very tensively in the media, Saied, with his utopian theories look when of handling criticism people who have safeguarded the his contradictory and inconsistent confronted with Tunisia’s practical with ease and class. country’s democratic process to be discourse, managed to reassure realities and challenges? Will he This was even more excluded entirely from the political everyone — left, right, young, old, garner enough support in parlia- evident two years lat- scene. educated and uneducated — that he ment to affect real change? Will the er when Saied was the The last factor to be examined would work for their interests. man, who seemingly fought the victim of a television in Saied’s unusual rise is his two- However, his views are clearly establishment eventually become prank show. On Et- pronged approach to outreach: He inconsistent. He claims to be in part of it, succeed in knocking down tounsiya TV, the hosts has used a massive social media favour of ensuring women’s rights the system? attempted to simulate following, especially on Facebook, but against gender equality. He Or will the new outsider candi- an earthquake while while carrying out an old-time said he respects the law and the date prove to be only the next chap- Saied was in the studio, door-to-door campaign to directly constitution but wants to amend, if ter of disappointment for Tunisia’s artificially causing the reach voters. not completely overhaul, both. He youth? walls and furniture to shake On social media, Saied’s sup- wants to ramp up the fight against violently and creating a general porters created hundreds of extremists, yet he’s against desig- Iman Zayat is the Managing Editor atmosphere of panic. Saied, pages, including open and private nating extremist groups like Ansar of The Arab Weekly. 6 September 22, 2019 Opinion

Editorial Aramco attacks may be final straw hrough its dangerous brinkmanship, Iran is taking the region and the world to the brink of a major conflagration. The latest Iranian act of aggression targeted Saudi Aramco facilities on September 14. TTehran’s aggressive designs seem to be based on two main premises: the denial of any responsi- bility for attacks even if regional proxies are used to carry out their war plans and, second, the desire to avoid provoking direct US retaliation. The two premises appear to be less and less tenable. Tehran’s rulers have had their mind set on imposing their aggressive designs, regardless of the diplomatic efforts of the international community and the attempts by European powers to save the 2015 nuclear deal. Even de-escalation gestures by US President Donald Trump have been apparently interpreted by Tehran as an invitation for more foul play. The attack on Aramco installations occurred after Trump ousted his hawkish national security adviser and continued to express his willingness to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rohani at the United Nations. Tehran’s provocative acts are increasingly stretching the limits of plausible deniability. Saudi oil installations were the target of an unprecedented attack that caused major disrup- © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly tion of the Saudi and world oil markets. Iran- backed Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack and Tehran tried to lend credibility to that claim but most regional and US experts and Gulf nations may opt for an Iran startegy officials saw the direct hand of Tehran in the attack Saudi military spokesman Colonel Turki independent from US al-Malki said 18 drones and seven cruise missiles were used in the attack. He pointed out that the Khairallah Khairallah cruise missiles could not have been fired from Yemen because they had a range of 700km. Iran’s sectarian militias, operating freely in Iraq under the “This is the kind of weapon the Iranian regime name of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, have placed Iraqi and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are using against the civilian object and territory at the disposal of Tehran. facilities infrastructure,” he said. He concluded: “This attack did not originate hat we under- Tehran is perfectly replay of what happened when from Yemen, despite Iran’s best effort to make it stand from comfortable with a policy of Obama saw no problem with the appear so.” Iran’s sus- escalation in the absence of an Muslim Brotherhood’s takeover US experts discounted claims of responsibility pected sabo- American administration capable of following the dubious by the Houthis. “Previous Houthi drone strikes tage operation of deterring it. Iran knows it election of Muhammad Morsi as against oil facilities tended to result in quite against Saudi can cross all redlines, except for president. limited damage that could be an indication that a Woil installations is that Tehran has killing US troops. Iran is always trying to drive a different weapons system was used this time,” said Fabian Hinz, a researcher at the James opted for escalation in response The downing of the US drone wedge between this Arab country Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies at the to the US sanctions against it. over the Strait of Hormuz in and the other. So when the United Middlebury Institute of International Studies in This operation has, at the June was a clear example of that. States, because of its narrow California. same time, exposed US President Trump backed off a military interests, is reluctant to resort to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was une- Donald Trump’s administration. response at the last minute and firmness with Iran, it is normal quivocal. “This was an Iranian attack,” he said, It is in a conundrum because it acted just like Barack Obama had that several countries in the Gulf calling it “an act of war.” has no option but to continue done. Trump argued that the region choose to reconsider their US television network CBS News contended with the sanctions while being response would have resulted in positions and policies. In the end, that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali open to dialogue without many Iranian casualties, while all the Gulf states are in the same Khamenei gave direct approval for the attack. US preconditions with Tehran. US losses were limited to a drone boat and will presumably realise officials said they have satellite photos that show Iran has responded to the that costs $150 million. that the Iranian game of focusing the IRGC preparing for the attack at Iran’s Ahvaz airbase. US offer of dialogue without Considering this situation, on Saudi Arabia alone, so far, will Beyond this incident, there has been an preconditions by a virtual characterised by an Iranian not pull the wool over their eyes. incriminating pattern all along, a pattern that declaration of war. Yes, the full-speed-ahead policy and by There is a different reality in obeyed only the bellicose logic of Tehran’s rulers. attack on Saudi oil installations the United States looking the the region, especially in the Gulf. Since the imposition of the “maximum was a declaration of war in the other way, Arab Gulf countries The United States can be content pressure” policy by the Trump administration, full sense of the term because it adopt a strategy compatible with a policy of tightening Iran has threatened that, if it could not export its threatened “global oil supply and with the facts of the situation. sanctions on Iran but the Gulf oil, nobody else would export oil. Instead of security, which poses a threat to Iran, unable to engage in a direct countries cannot afford to stand considering de-escalation, it found in the lack of the global economy.” confrontation the Americans by while Iran attacks them as retaliatory moves on the part of the United States This is the view of Saudi resorted to retaliation in the Gulf part of its game with Trump, another reason to commit more provocations. Minister of Energy Prince and in Iraq, , and especially when the Tehran For months, the Iranians never stopped. There Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Yemen. regime views US sanctions as a have been attacks on oil tankers near the Gulf of Hormuz and Saudi oil installations since May 12. Abdulaziz, who does not lack the It is important to note that, matter of life or death and shows The Houthis came into the picture with claims of audacity to say things as they given the weakness of Iraqi its readiness to cross all the responsibility. On June 13, a Japanese oil tanker are, describing what happened authorities, Iran has increased redlines. was attacked using naval mines. A US surveil- accurately and with the utmost its pressure on Baghdad to play One can say that oil supplies lance drone was shot down by the IRGC on June transparency. the game by Iranian rules. An from the Gulf are no longer 20. Trump aborted a retaliatory strike after the Iran is suffocating and example of the fruits of this a matter of life or death for incident. considers itself the victim of a strategy is Tehran’s renewed the United States — It can do Later, when British forces near Gibraltar seized war described by one Iranian recuperation of Muqtada al- without them, within certain an Iranian tanker, the Iranians managed to secure diplomat in Beirut as a “slow Sadr, who was shown sitting limits — but what about the rest its release by seizing a British-flagged oil tanker. death,” stressing that Tehran comfortably next to Iranian of the world, including China, US experts said Trump’s attitude conveyed a “will not stand by being helpless Major-General Qassem Soleimani India, Japan, South Korea and sense of ambivalence and aversion to confronta- tion with Tehran. His stance probably gave towards this slow death and this and Iranian Supreme Leader European countries except Iranian leaders the impression that the risks they war.” Ali Khamenei during the Britain and Norway? How will faced were manageable. So Iran took its decision. What commemoration of Ashura. the Trump administration react They also saw in their misdeeds a means to happened to Saudi Arabia is It is no longer a secret if those countries pressure it to secure a better bargaining position once negotia- much more serious than closing that Iran’s sectarian militias, ease sanctions on Iran, especially tions were an option. In the meanwhile, at home, the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran operating freely in Iraq under those on oil exports, so Iran will they could claim to have defied the United States has found difficult to do. It is the name of the Popular ease the escalation in the Gulf and won. much easier to hit vital targets in Mobilisation Forces, have placed region? “Iranian hardliners consider Trump’s inconsist- the Arabian Gulf. Today, it was Iraqi territory at the disposal of As the United States plunges ency to be weakness,” Ali Ansari, a professor of Aramco plants; tomorrow, it will Tehran, right under the United into a state of confusion caused Iranian history at the University of St Andrews in be desalination plants. States’ nose. Will Trump surprise by Trump’s unstoppable desire , told the New York Times. For Iranian Iran is testing the United his Gulf allies by proving he is to stay in the White House at hardliners, he added, “their policy of ‘maximum resistance’ is working.” States’ resilience and response different from Obama and that any cost, even if it were just a Today, with their acts of aggression, Iranian capacity knowing that Trump is his dismissal of national security photo opportunity with Iranian rulers are holding the whole Gulf region and the afraid of going to war lest it ruin adviser John Bolton will have President Hassan Rohani, the Gulf global oil market hostage. his chances of a second term at little effect on the confrontation region and the world are left in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the White House. How far will with Iran? the lurch. which recently joined a global maritime security Iran go in what it regards as a It should not come as a The White House resident coalition, are taking the challenge of regional response to the US war? surprise that, if the United States seems willing to pay a price for security very seriously and are assuming their Apparently, it will go far does not opt for a different his ambition but no one in the own responsibilities in this regard. because the US administration response to the attack on Saudi Arab region is willing to bear the However, there is clearly more at stake than just has ruled out a military response oil facilities, the Gulf countries consequences of that price. Gulf security. World peace is in jeopardy. The and, as long as the targets of will opt for an Iran policy very whole international community must take a stand. Iran’s war are Gulf countries, not much independent from that of Khairallah Khairallah is a US troops and bases in the region. the United States. It would be a Lebanese writer. September 22, 2019 7 Opinion

Rebuilding Syria, one luxury hotel at a time Published by Al Arab Publishing House Rashmee Roshan Lall The state of Syria is piteous after nearly a decade of conflict. An estimated Publisher 500,000 are dead; 12 million are internally or externally displaced. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD o, how about that Clearly, it’s preparing for busi- said of Idlib, Syria’s last rebel- been accustomed. It’s about busman’s holiday to nessmen looking to strike deals held stronghold, that less allowing — even enabling — an Editor-in-Chief ? As of next to reconstruct Syria. Is Syria than half of its 1,193 schools international bidding war over Oussama Romdhani year, it will be a very really open for business? If so, are operational; 353 had been lucrative contracts to rebuild real possibility. whose business and for what abandoned or damaged and 205 Syria to underline the country’s The Chinese-owned, purpose? were being used as shelters. attractiveness, as well as the Managing Editor SFrance-headquartered Louvre The answers to those ques- This means more than half of authority of Assad’s regime to Iman Zayat Hotels Group said it will tions are dispiriting. As Assad the area’s 650,000 school-age do deals. manage two luxury hotels in seeks to affirm the finality of children won’t be at their Perhaps luxury Damascus Deputy Managing Editor Damascus, which are to open the Syrian regime’s military studies for at least the next hotels for businessmen from and Online Editor in 2020. victory, it’s clear he’s prepared academic year. around the world tell the Mamoon Alabbasi To much of the world, the — perhaps even eager — for geo- How will the two luxury ultimate good-news story for announcement signified the political competition for recon- hotels in Damascus help that Assad as he seeks to rebrand his return of the “first Western struction contracts. However, it doleful situation? Not a lot. devastated country. Perhaps it Senior Editor company” to Syria since civil won’t be about reconstruction The Syrian government said is a triumph of sorts that Syria John Hendel war broke out in 2011. In fact, per se, just about building it will cost around $400 billion is destined to be the focus of it may be a marker of the grim whatever generates profit for to rebuild the country but, as intense geopolitical business geopolitics of reconstruction. whoever is allowed to do so, by a report by the Italian Institute competition for years and years. Chief Copy Editor Who gets to rebuild a country whatever means possible. for International Political Stud- Iraq, after the 2003 US-led devastated by war? Will it really The state of Syria is piteous ies suggested, Assad’s view invasion, is a salutary warning Richard Pretorius be rebuilt and will that effort be after nearly a decade of conflict. of reconstruction seems to be against such spurts of enthusi- Copy Editors in line with Syria’s real needs? An estimated 500,000 are focused on a way “to lock in asm. Is the war over, for all that Syr- dead; 12 million are internally wider international reintegra- Either way, the Russians, Chi- Stephen Quillen ian President Bashar Assad’s or externally displaced. The tion.” nese, Iranians, Turks, as well as Kyle Arensdorf government has been talking of World Bank said nearly $250 This suggests that Assad’s re- the French and other European a “post-conflict phase” and the billion of GDP was lost. Public construction is not really about players, will probably frequent importance of reconstruction? and community infrastructure substantial or real rebuilding. the two new Damascus hotels in Gulf Section Editor With tensions rising as a is devastated. More than one- It’s not about refashioning the the foreseeable future. Mohammed Alkhereiji result of attacks claimed by the third of the country’s housing lives of shattered by Houthis on Saudi oil infrastruc- stock has been hit. Roughly war or trying to discern a viable Rashmee Roshan Lall is a Society and Travel ture, few think of the MENA half of its health and education future for their children. It’s not columnist for The Arab Weekly. Sections Editor region as a holiday destination. facilities are so badly damaged about restoring a previously Her blog can be found at www. Samar Kadi Yet, that hotel group said it as to be unusable. middle-income country to the rashmee.com and she is on anticipates a wave of visitors. In September, an aid group prospects to which it has long Twitter: @rashmeerl. Senior Correspondents Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) Thomas Seibert (Istanbul)

Drug trafficking jihad is a plague on Islam Regular Columnists Rashmee Roshan Lall Ibrahim Zobeidi Claude Salhani Yavuz Baydar What is this religion that allows drugging people and destroying their minds and hearts and embezzling their money? Correspondents ran is one of the major Nazli Tarzi () drug-producing and smuggling countries in the Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) world. Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) We have known for Roua Khlifi (Tunis) a long time that Salafist Imovements, parties, militias and Islamic groups that are Chief Designer (very) militant on the side of Marwen el-Hmedi the oppressed and the mis- guided, excel in the cultivation Designers of cannabis, opium, poppy and Ibrahim Ben Bechir cocaine and have mastered the art of smuggling, selling and Hanen Jebali promoting them in Muslim, Christian and Jewish lands, to get enough money to buy car Contact editor at: bombs, mines, daggers and swords, toxic gas bombs, rock- [email protected] ets and silencers, with which to blow up schools, hospitals, public markets, mosques, ports and airports and to assas- sinate polytheists who call for Al Arab Publishing House moderation, dialogue, justice, Quadrant Building democracy, peace, human 177-179 Hammersmith Road rights, freedom of religion and London W6 8BS gender equity. This has been going on for the past half a century or so. Surprisingly, the US Treasury Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 Department learnt about it only Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 a few days ago and realised Trafficking in the shadow of war. Workers collect marijuana plants in a field in the village of Yammoune that the Lebanese Hezbollah in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. (AFP) was getting its funding from its South American drug trade. US Publisher: The poor department was and Lebanon has become an im- either by the sea on ships from There are accusations float- The Arab Weekly USA LLC. not aware that the Lebanese portant source of drugs globally. Iranian ports, or through the ing about charging the Muslim Bekaa Valley had, since 2012, Rumour has it that senior Iraqi-Syrian border with Saudi Brotherhood, al-Qaeda, al-Nus- [email protected] become the private and closed Hezbollah figures and pro- Arabia and across the Yemeni ra Front and the Popular Mobi- [email protected] kingdom of Hezbollah, where Hezbollah religious figures have border from the Houthi areas. lisation Forces militias in Iraq the Lebanese state is forbidden issued fatwas allowing the culti- Under the reign of the Tali- with relying, in part or wholly, Tel: 248-679-6624 to set foot and enforce its laws vation, exporting and selling ban in Afghanistan since 2001, on the drug trade to finance that forbid the cultivation of of drugs “if no harm is going to the cultivation of heroin pop- their “mujahideen” and their cannabis and smuggling it to come from them.” pies in the Afghani mountains activities, because the money the Arab Gulf countries, Syria Iran can boast of being one and plains has flourished, with they illegally receive from their and Iraq. It is a very well known of major drug-producing and the blessing and collusion of sleeper cells deployed in the and documented fact that the -smuggling countries in the the holy scholars and figures Middle East and Europe is insuf- Bekaa Valley produces up to world and this is happening of Islamic Jihad in Pakistan ficient. Subscription & Advertising: 1,000 tonnes of cannabis annu- during the reign of Ali Khame- and Iran. Afghanistan’s annual What is this religion that [email protected] ally and 30-50 tonnes of opium nei, the all-holy “Hussein” of exports of opium and heroin are allows drugging people and de- Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 used to make heroin. our times, to borrow Hezbollah said to amount to $5.2 billion, stroying their minds and hearts Hezbollah, in collusion with Secretary-General Hassan Nas- equivalent to 50% of the coun- and embezzling their money? the Assad regime in Syria, has rallah’s description. try’s GDP. What kind of mujahideen are Mohamed Al Mufti succeeded to a great extent in Iran is the largest buyer and Even Afghani citizens admit these who knowingly or unwit- Marketing & Advertising turning Syria into a large market exporter of Afghani opium. It that the drug trade has raised tingly are slaughtering the Manager for the sale of its drugs and a is the world’s most dangerous the standard of living of the Islamic religion itself? hub for exporting the drugs to heroin producer, with 95% of people in the areas where it is Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 neighbouring countries. During the global heroin supply coming grown to an unprecedented Ibrahim Zobeidi is an Iraqi www.alarab.co.uk the last few years, Hezbollah from Iran. Iranian drugs are level in the world’s poorest writer and US publisher of has doubled its drug production smuggled into Gulf countries country. The Arab Weekly. 8 September 22, 2019 Obituary The Passing of Ben Ali Tunisia’s deposed leader dies in Saudi exile, leaves mixed legacy

Transitions. A January 1986 file photo shows former Tunisian President (R) 23-year rule. A 2007 file picture of former President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. shaking hands with his then-Interior Minister Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali. (AFP) (AP)

The Arab Weekly staff the president of the poor. I always re- from other opposition groups led to staunchly anti-Islamist Free Destou- economic “achievements” of Ben member him when I buy food for my a “political desertification” of the rian Party openly paid tribute to Ben Ali’s rule. “The personal income of family and medicine for my sick chil- country and recurrent accusations of Ali’s legacy. Tunisians multiplied six-fold be- Tunis dren,” said Aliya Ahmed, a worker at rights abuses. “God vindicated Ben Ali as the tween 1987 and 2010 and inflation a car hire company. Although special programmes people punished all these politicians remained under 3.5%,” he said. ormer Tunisian President “Allah loves him. He died in Saudi were devised to curtail poverty, the who lied all the time about Ben Ali,” Tunisian lawyer Adel Kaaniche Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali died Arabia and buried in Mecca, the land structural deficiencies that fuelled said primary school teacher Samira pointed to Ben Ali’s flawed policies. September 19, nearly nine and the soul of our religion. If he unemployment and development Shaieb, an activist of the Free Des- “His obstinate clinging to power, the F years after he left the country were buried here, those black rats imbalances remained unaddressed. tourian Party, formed of unabashed worsening of corruption during his for exile in Saudi Arabia. of politicians and their followers As growth slowed in Europe, Tu- loyalists of Ben Ali. tenure and his adoption of an obso- He leaves a legacy of authoritar- would had tormented him even after nisia’s main trade partner, the coun- “He left Tunisia for them. Every- lete development model all contrib- ian rule and intolerance of dissent death,” he added. try’s economy seriously deteriorated one can see what they did for Tunisia uted to the rise in unemployment, but also a record of fairly efficient Ben Ali had a long public service after 2008, limiting growth and lead- and what is happening for us after especially among university gradu- economic management, stability and career from a young army soldier to a ing to increased frustrations over him,” she added. ates,” he said. moderate foreign policy. top intelligence chief, a prime minis- unemployment, mostly among uni- As in all major events, Tunisians Ben Ali is survived by six children; He was unable to deal with an ter and then president. versity graduates, and the rising cost expressed their views about Ben Ali three daughters by a first marriage uprising that erupted December 17, of living. on social media. and two daughters and a son by his 2010, and spread from the impover- Ben Ali, who was failed by the lim- Former Governor of the Central wife Leila Trabelsi, who accompa- ished province of Sidi Bouzid across “I do not want to add to ited vision of his entourage and the Bank Taoufik Baccar highlighted the nied him into exile. Tunisia after a vegetable cart vendor my homeland’s woes,” relentless competition by his family set himself on fire. Ben Ali repeatedly members for economic spoils, could The last few weeks of his rule were replied when asked about not ward off the mounting tide of Key dates in the life of bloody but he may have saved his his continued silence. social discontent. The very central- country from civil strife or foreign ised system he put in place did not military intervention as in Syria, Ben Ali ascended to the presiden- have enough agility and imagination ex-president Zine el-Abidine Yemen and Libya by not putting up a cy in 1987 after a bloodless “medi- to introduce political and economic last-ditch fight against protesters. cal coup” against President Habib changes. He tried desperately to play Out of respect for his Saudi hosts, Bourguiba, the first president of the catch up with spreading protests. Agence France-Presse In 1988, the constitution was Ben Ali kept silent as Tunisia faced republic. Bourguiba was declared “They misled me,” were among amended, limiting presidential ten- the challenges of democratic transi- “unfit to rule” for reason of senility. Ben Ali’s last words before he went ures to three 5-year terms. tion and struggled with instability The forced seclusion of Bourguiba into exile January 14, 2011, clear- Tunis and social-economic pressures. He in his hometown of Monastir was to ing the way for a democratic transi- Elections did not grant interviews or pub- be the source of criticism for Ben Ali, tion in which Islamists were to play ey dates in the life of former lish books during exile. His lawyers who was also accused of preventing a leading role and where economic Tunisian President Zine el- In 1989, Ben Ali, the single can- promised to broadcast an audio a state burial for Bourguiba when he indicators continued to deteriorate Abidine Ben Ali, who died didate, won presidential elections recording Ben Ali made before his died in April 2000. because of mismanagement and so- K September 19 in Saudi Ara- with 99.3% of the vote. Five years death. Ben Ali is said to have seized pow- cial pressure. bia, where he had lived since being later, he was re-elected with 99.9%. “I do not want to add to my home- er shortly before the Islamists were Ben Ali’s death was shortly after ousted in 2011. The opposition entered parliament land’s woes,” Ben Ali repeatedly re- to launch a coup. Islamists acknowl- the first round of presidential elec- for the first time since independ- plied when asked about his contin- edged later they had infiltrated the tions in Tunisia in which the entire Early life ence in 1956. ued silence. presidential security details and political class, including many of his In 1999, Ben Ali organised the Ben Ali chose to be buried in Saudi were prepared to move on Bourgui- former foes, failed to make it to the Ben Ali was born into a modest country’s first multi-candidate pres- Arabia, his family members said, a ba’s presidential palace. second round. family in Hammam- on Sep- idential election. Faced with only last message against what he seem- After he became president, Ben Ali Instead, voters’ top choice for the tember 3, 1936, when Tunisia was a token resistance from two challeng- ingly saw as lack of appreciation for initially took steps to liberalise politi- runoff was a populist law Professor French protectorate. ers, he won with 99.4% of the vote. his contributions by the new elites in cal life, allowed a relatively free press Kais Saied with no record of dissent He was 19 years old when the Tunisia. “I will not grant my bones and forged a broad political front that against Ben Ali. “I was not an oppo- country achieved full independence Constitutional change to an ungrateful country,” he was included the Islamists. sition activist,” Saied recently admit- in 1956. quoted by his daughter Nesrine in a However, Ben Ali quickly carried ted. After military training in France In May 2002, he won a referendum Facebook post. out a ruthless crackdown on Islam- The second contender in the run- and the United States, he entered on constitutional changes allow- Like most Arab nationalists and ists, jailing thousands of militants off, jailed media tycoon Nabil Karoui, army intelligence and was appoint- ing him to stand for a fourth term, the generation of strongmen of his and leaders as he accused “Islamic obtained the broadcast licence of ed minister for national security in which he won in October 2004. He age and political background, Ben Movement” members of plotting to his TV channel, Nessma, from Ben 1985. was overwhelmingly re-elected to a Ali focused on economic and social infiltrate the military and the police Ali. His critics, especially during the He moved to the Interior Minis- fifth 5-year term in 2009, albeit with development but he neglected to and shoot down his aeroplane. campaign, have not forgiven him for try the following year and became a vote total dipping for the first time establish the bases for Western-style He subsequently grew reluctant to saying once on the air: “Ben Ali is our prime minister early in 1987. to just less than 90%. democracy and saw much of his op- embrace any form of democratic rule affectionate father.” position as driven by personal ambi- or free elections that would give the Most secularist leaders, includ- Ousts father of independence Fall of Ben Ali tion and outside interference. Islamists a chance of taking power. ing Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Tunisians, who express an unwa- His restrictions on democratic organ- Chahed, conveyed their condolences On November 7, 1987, Ben Ali took Ben Ali left the country on Janu- vering attachment to their dearly isation and free expression widened to Ben Ali’s family. power after having Habib Bour- ary 14, 2011, after weeks of deadly gained freedoms, often remember to include the secular opposition as Chahed had said one week before guiba, the ailing father of Tunisian nationwide demonstrations sparked the days of his rule as a period of a well. Ben Ali’s death that, on humanitar- independence, declared mentally by the self-immolation of a vegeta- better standard of living than today. Under his rule, Tunisia went ian grounds, the former president unfit to rule. ble cart vendor who was protesting His death at the age of 83 was 57 through a period of relative econom- could return to die in his own coun- The bloodless coup came after police harassment and unemploy- days after the passing of President ic prosperity with an average GDP try — “like every Tunisian” — should several years of growing civil dis- ment. , 92, leaving Mo- growth rate of 5% and the steady rise he wish to do so. He said after his sent exacerbated by economic diffi- Ben Ali was the first leader to hamed Ennaceur, currently interim of the middle class to include about death that Ben Ali could be buried at culties, along with increasingly er- stand down in the “Arab spring,” president, as the only Tunisian lead- 80% of the population. home if his family requested. ratic behaviour by Bourguiba, who fleeing after 23 years in power to er from his generation and national- Politically, the widespread repres- However, there was no official in 1975 had himself declared presi- Saudi Arabia, where he lived until ist background. sion of the Islamists, iron-first policy mourning declared in Tunisia and dent for life. his death. “May God bless his soul. He was and narrow tolerance of dissidents only the followers of Abir Moussi’s September 22, 2019 9 News & Analysis Maghreb

Viewpoint ’s old guard destroying its future

hard currency reserves dwindle and the cost of the endless list of subsidies rises, Algeria may be forced to seek recourse from the Francis Ghilès International Monetary Fund (IMF). hen the demon- For generals who are so finicky strations that about their patriotic credentials, have engulfed handing the reins of reform to the Algeria started IMF would carry immense irony. more than six In the eyes of many Algerians, months ago, such a move would amount to no WAlgerian Army Chief-of-Staff less than an economic betrayal of General Ahmed Gaid Salah a country that boasts plenty of threatened the demonstrators competent economists capable of with a “Syrian” solution. preparing a reform blueprint. He had to swallow his words Gaid Salah has decided the quickly when the army publica- gendarmerie would stop the entry tion El Djeich, in a pointed rebuke, into Algiers of any Algerian who insisted the army would never does not live in the city. consider the people of the country Two former heads of security, its enemy. Mohamed Mediene and Athmane For half a year, Gaid Salah and a Tartag, are to soon go on trial. Will crusty group of aged senior they respect the omerta that has generals — average age of more characterised senior security than 70 — feigned to follow this officials who fall on hard times in advice and dialogue with the the past or will they spill the Hirak Movement, as the protest beans? Were they to choose the lat- No end in sight. A journalist reports from the front line during clashes between LNA forces and has been called. Last summer, ter course, several senior generals, fighters loyal to the Libyan government of Fayez Sarraj, south of Tripoli. (AFP) however, they started losing including Gaid Salah, could be in patience with what they saw as a for an uncomfortable ride. student rumpus. Demonstrators Were the vote to go ahead in were arrested, information December, Gaid Salah and his websites taken out and foreign peers would seek to convince their journalists, as well as observers countrymen and the outside Evidence mounts of from Human Rights Watch, world that the Algerian state expelled from the country. machine has “been put back on Gaid Salah, who was in the habit the rails.” Nothing however would of speaking every Tuesday be further from the truth. responding to the demonstra- Quite apart from the risk of Turkish involvement tions, now fires off virtually daily violence, any president elected in salvoes against those he accuses such a fashion would carry little of “plotting to destroy” Algeria. credibility with many of his Hirak persists in its refusal to countrymen. Reforms cannot be select leaders, convinced — as it carried out without trust and a turns out rightly — that the high minimum of respect of the people in Tripoli fighting command does not and never has for those who lead them. had any intention of opening Not only would Gaid Salah have serious negotiations that might forfeited that trust but the very Michel Cousins What made the killing of Migri League, the European Union, lead to a competent and credible fact that a group of very old and Kani so significant was that Egypt, France, Italy, Russia, the government of transition that officers, who are quite out of their the 9th Brigade has been the most United Arab Emirates, the United could prepare for democratic and depth where modern economics Tunis effective of the LNA’s forces in the Kingdom, the United States and by transparent presidential elec- are concerned, control an army in attempt to capture Tripoli. Migri UN Special Envoy for Libya Ghas- tions. which most younger officers are n view of recent battlefield was its commander although Kani san Salame. Not all officers share Gaid far better educated than they are developments, there is little was more important. He headed The next day, France and Italy Salah’s hard-line view but none does not suggest stability in the expectation that the struggle the 3,000-strong “supported forc- publicly agreed to coordinate their have chosen to defy him openly. future. I south-east of Tripoli between es” unit that is the backbone of the policies on Libya after long being at His ordering presidential Refusing to accept the biological militants loyal to Tripoli’s Govern- brigade. loggerheads. Following a meeting elections for December 12 will no clock is a time-honoured device in ment of National Accord and the LNA Field-Marshal Khalifa Haf- September 18 in Rome with French doubt result in a sham poll that authoritarian regimes but Libyan National Army is going to tar appointed Colonel Al-Sharif al- President Emmanuel Macron, Ital- will be presented as a democratic unpredictable events have a way calm down soon. Bouzidi, from Bani Walid, as head ian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte exercise. Algeria’s foreign partners of upending the best-laid plans. There were also reports of a grow- of the 9th Brigade and Abdulrahim said they had agreed on a “joint will acquiesce, thankful that Maybe that is what Gaid Salah ing Turkish role in the fighting. al-Kani took over from his brother. initiative” to bring about a meeting “stability” has returned to Africa’s secretly yearns for: an Algeria Despite silence from the Govern- However, it may take time before of the various Libyan groupings. largest country. whose influence on the regional ment of National Accord (GNA) on the brigade adjusts. Confirming they would be working A vote conducted in such stage is declining, a younger the role Turkey is playing in run- The attack was clearly part of a closely together on Libya, Macron conditions is, however, unlikely to generation of civilians and ning GNA-supporting forces, there coordinated attempt to weaken it said that there was “a real conver- bring stability to the country. The military kept well away from the was an off-the-record confirma- just when GNA forces had pushed gence” between the two govern- electoral register will not be levers of power and the cash cows tion from Western diplomats that the LNA onto the defensive and ments. revised in any serious way thus they have been enjoying for Turkish officers were overseeing were pressing towards Tarhouna. Conte’s talks with Macron oc- depriving millions of young decades. GNA operations. This, they said, As the LNA’s font line operations curred just hours after he met with Algerians, who have never voted, The country’s foreign partners explains more coordinated moves base, the town is crucial to the LNA the head of the GNA Fayez Sarraj to the opportunity to cast a ballot. may acquiesce politely to such a by the previously amateurish GNA campaign. discuss Libya. As happened when he scenario but, if it plays out, it is fighters. The following day US Ambassa- attempted to force a poll in April most unlikely to bring greater A Libyan National Army (LNA) dor to Libya Richard Norland met and in July, Gaid Salah might find stability to Algeria domestically or officer said the September 16 -at The Libyan National with Haftar in Abu Dhabi “to dis- no credible candidates step the broader north-west African tack on Gardabiya Airbase, south of Army dramatically cuss the current situation in Libya forward. region. Sirte, was meant to destroy Turkish stepped up air attacks, and prospects for achieving a po- Algeria badly needs structural drone facilities, which had been with strikes on Tripoli’s litical solution to the Libya con- economic reforms, quite apart Francis Ghilès is an associate used in the attack on the LNA’s Al Mitiga International flict,” a Twitter posting by the US from new political institutions. As fellow at the Barcelona Centre for Jufra Airbase the previous day. Airport, on the military Embassy stated. the economic situation worsens, International Affairs. Earlier, the two top commanders section of Misrata’s The two meetings were not co- of the LNA’s 9th Brigade, Abdel- airport and on Sirte. incidental. Although LNA officials wahhab al-Migri and Moshen al- and supporters cling to the idea Kani, were killed in a GNA drone at- The LNA’s air strikes were con- that Washington is swinging to- tack. Also killed was Kani’s younger sidered a deliberate tactical move wards them, US officials are saying brother, Abdelazeem. to divert GNA forces from Tarhou- increasingly loudly they and other The incident had dramatic con- na. It appears to have had some countries are working to achieve sequences. In Tarhouna, which is success, particularly the strikes on the only possible solution in Libya, firmly controlled by the Kani fam- Sirte. There have been reports of at a political one. It is believed Nor- ily and is the main operations base least one Misrati unit heading there land told Haftar that he had to re- for the LNA’s efforts to wrest Tripoli to reinforce its defences. turn to the dialogue table. from the GNA, there were revenge Far from the front lines, efforts That is unlikely to go down well attacks. An LNA source admitted continued ahead of the proposed with Haftar. His view, as conveyed that “three or four” GNA agents international conference on Libya by his spokesman earlier in Sep- had been killed by local people, not in Berlin, both to ensure greater co- tember, is that the time for dia- by the military. ordination on what needs to hap- logue is over and there has to be The LNA dramatically stepped pen in Libya and to bring about a a military solution, not a political up air attacks, with repeated strikes ceasefire on the ground. one. on Tripoli’s now closed Mitiga In- A preparatory meeting on the Forcing deadlines. People view the covers of national and foreign ternational Airport, other locations conference took place Septem- Michel Cousins is a contributor newspapers, with the announced Algerian presidential election date in the city, on the military section ber 17 in Berlin and was attended to The Arab Weekly on Libyan dominating headlines, at a stand in Algiers. September 16. (AFP) of Misrata’s airport and on Sirte. by representatives from the Arab issues. 10 September 22, 2019 Spotlight Interview Who are the winners and losers of the ‘Arab spring’?

and Mossad, Alpher concedes a retains scepticism over Saudi professional admiration for Putin Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, partly Gareth Smyth and Soleimani. While he is a critic of Netanyahu — arguing in his because of his “trial-and- 2016 book “No End of Conflict” (mostly)-error” reforms and that Israel was heading towards partly over the Saudi military’s uring the years he apartheid by absorbing the West performance in Yemen and over spent writing his Bank — he salutes Netanyahu’s “the attacks on these oil installa- just-published successes. tions” in Abqaiq and Khurais. analysis of the “Arab “On the Iran issue, he gets high The United Arab Emirates spring,” Yossi Alpher marks,” Alpher said. “Yes, he differs, Alpher argued, in limiting hit on the idea of should have let the [2015 Iran action to defined strategic goals. Dpicking winners and losers. nuclear deal] go ahead, he This, he said, explains its with- Alpher imagined a rostrum with shouldn’t have egged [US drawal from Yemen and support victors at the top — Russian President Donald] Trump on and to Libyan National Army Field- President Vladimir Putin, Iran’s he bears some responsibility for Marshal Khalifa Haftar, whom the al-Quds Brigade commander the current impasse but with Iran Emiratis alongside Russia Qassem Soleimani, Israeli Prime on the ground — Hezbollah in consider a bulwark against Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Lebanon, these militias in Syria Islamist extremism. “most” of the Arab monarchs and and Iraq — Netanyahu has “They [the Emiratis] are the “European ultra-national- handled things skilfully. everywhere, they’ve set up bases ists.” “Netanyahu’s been successful all around the Red Sea, the Writing about current politics in improving mainly clandestine Arabian Sea. They’re saying, amid tumult was risky and relations with the Gulf countries, ‘We’re not going to wait for demanded a cutoff. In “Winners but also strategic, military and something bad to happen here, and Losers in the ‘Arab Spring’: intelligence relations with Egypt we’re going to extend our Profiles in Chaos,” Alpher drew a and to some extent with . presence to make sure everybody line at the end of 2018, signing off He’s been able to do this because leaves us alone.’” a preface in February 2019 with of… the threat Iran presents and In Alpher’s list of “losers” are Putin and Netanyahu — “smug, the fact Israel has some answers US presidents, overthrown “Arab spring”-cum-chaos. American-Israeli writer Yossi Alpher. smart, calculating” — conferring they don’t have. Israel is the only Egyptian, Yemeni and Tunisian (Courtesy of Yossi Alpher) over Syria and their “successful country in the region striking at presidents, the Palestinians and exploitation of Arab chaos.” Iranians… in Syria and more the Kurds. At 125 pages, the book is slim recently, apparently, even in Trump is neither winner nor underestimated, he argued, by never strong enough to exercise but peppered with anecdotes and Iraq. loser: “This is a totally unguided Western liberals and politicians the influence the army exercised almost epic in dimensions. Alpher “The Saudis and Emiratis like missile, with no strategic thinking who encouraged the “Arab in Egypt,” he said. “Another traces “Arab state fragmentation what they see and quietly and yet I take pains to say in the spring” and exaggerated — nota- difference was civil society. and chaos” to the 2003 Iraq applaud. Asked if they’re giving book — and I would still say — he’s bly former US President Barack Tunisia had a highly developed invasion. He examines the role of up on the Palestinians they say not a loser… He hasn’t made any Obama — the reformism of trade-union movement going individual Western and regional ‘No, we support a two-state disastrous error. His basic instinct Turkish President Recep Tayyip back to Habib Bourguiba [Tuni- leaders in creating or reacting to solution and Temple Mount to stay out of conflict here has Erdogan and Egypt’s Muslim sia’s president 1957-87], which events and argues Arab collapse [al-Aqsa, occupied by Israel since saved him from becoming a Brotherhood. played a key role in the transition. has had global consequences, 1967] and so on’ “but like much of loser.” In the book, Alpher cited Finally, it had a moderate partly through a refugee crisis. the Arab world, they’re fed up Alpher leaves open whether Tunisia as a positive exception Islamist, Alpher said he’s been repeat- with the Palestinians and they Arab citizens are victims or and said he believes it remains so, [president 2011-14], who knew edly informed the “Arab spring” feel Palestinian demands in authors of their fate. He although he’s averse to early when to step aside.” isn’t over: “This is all open-ended negotiations have been outland- “bookends” his analysis with UN conclusions over the current but I think I was able to draw ish.” Development Programme Arab general election, where voters Gareth Smyth is a regular some fairly stable conclusions.” Alpher regards Arab monar- Development reports for 2010 and rejected established candi- contributor to The Arab Weekly. As a former intelligence officer chies generally as victors in the 2017 highlighting weaknesses in dates. He has reported from the Middle and analyst in the Israeli military “Arab spring”-cum-chaos. He Arab civil society. This was “The [Tunisian] Army was East since 1992.

Viewpoint Neglect of local government is a source of instability in the Arab world

Rajan said that, for many years, improvement of the country was down to the smallest local ering local communities in Arab the focus was on central govern- not reflected in the lives of officials, were the top demands societies where administrative ments and markets and the citizens, who consequently took of demonstrators. power lays in the hands of the Mahmoud Zaki interaction between them while to the street to demand the fall of Not paying enough attention to central government and in the local environment and the ruling regime.” the local communities not only correcting the imbalance. municipal authority was over- “Analysts like to make a link fuelled citizen anger but also The basic empowering tools for pecialists talk about the looked. That imbalance led to between street protests and the created a suitable environment communities are decentralisa- current current many negative consequences. increase in taxes, which seems for the unprecedented growth of tion and enabling local society to government structures The best illustration can be reasonable, but they overlook extremism. Radical organisations take the right steps. This process as built on three main found in Arab countries that other aspects, such as improving exploit acute economic and includes providing local commu- pillars: the state or the experienced public protests and the local administration by social conditions to recruit nities with the capacity to central government, turmoil in the last decade. enabling them financially and followers. develop financial resources Seconomic markets and the local Whether in Egypt and Tunisia legally to have a direct hand in Several studies focusing on through the imposition of fees or community. The three pillars first or Libya, Yemen and Syria reforming citizens’ lives,” Fahmy contemporary Islamic movements taxes to finance local activities, work in parallel to achieve the next and now in Algeria and said. showed that the rise of extremist rather than to rely on the central goals of capitalism by creating a , the signs of neglect of The development of communi- groups in Egypt, for example, government budget, which often dynamic and coherent society local aspects are apparent. ties and local governments is not began in economically depressed does not set aside enough interconnected with an innova- Local infrastructure is in a a priority in some Arab countries neighbourhoods suffering from resources for tangible develop- tive competitive market. pitiful state, residents suffer and it has become obvious in the run-down infrastructure and ment at the local level. However, former Governor of from chronic shortages of food overwhelming priority given to administrative chaos. This implies that real power the Reserve Bank of India and other necessities and the the economic and governmental The failure of local affairs will have to be wrenched from Raghuram G. Rajan writes in rosy future promised by central concerns. In recent years, the departments in Arab communi- the hands of central Arab “The Third Pillar: How Markets governments is far from being Egyptian government has ties constitutes a gap through governments and placed in those and the State Leave the Commu- attained, all of which fuels developed ambitious develop- which extremist organisations of the neighbourhood or district nity Behind” about markets and popular anger and discontent. ment plans and enacted new laws reach the minds of hard-working official so he or she can take inde- governments abandoning the Shereen Fahmy, professor of to facilitate that development but citizens who do not feel their pendent decisions that would community and how unprec- international politics at the neglected to enact laws that living conditions are improving. contribute to the development of edented developments threaten British University in Cairo, said favour local communities or In those conditions, individuals that region. This thesis often stability and disrupt the world developing local communities conduct local elections. often say they must take matters clashes with concepts warning order balance because of the and governments was the last The situation is the same in into their own hands and go out that a decentralised system neglect of communities while thing on the mind of the central Lebanon where citizens took to on the street to bring about the undermines the structure of the strengthening government and government. Officials do not the street to protest that garbage necessary change. state. free markets. realise that the beginning of had been allowed to pile up in the Fahmy pointed out that, just as This process also clashes with success starts with the elimina- streets of Beirut, against wide- some Europeans support the culture of absolute power of tion of the corruption at the local spread corruption and rising populist right-wing parties that the central government and the level of government. unemployment — all issues promise change, extremist reluctance to let go of it, even She said that, after the fall of related to the failure of local groups, such as the Muslim partially. This is why it is difficult The basic Egyptian President Hosni administration. Brotherhood, have gained to see a federal system or other empowering tools for Mubarak in February 2011, there The same features appeared in sympathy in some Arab coun- fully decentralised government were questions about the reasons the protests in Sudan and Algeria, tries, guided by the belief that being implemented in any Arab communities are for the popular anger against where the elimination of corrup- their religious approach can country seeking a more efficient decentralisation and him, even though all economic tion at all levels of government substitute as an alternative politi- and fairer form of governance. indicators during his rule were and the overthrow of officials cal system. enabling local society positive. The answer, Fahmy who made mistakes, starting The key to this conundrum Mahmoud Zaki is an Egyptian to take the right steps. said, was that “the economic with the head of state working seems to be in properly empow- writer. September 22, 2019 11 News & Analysis Egypt

Omnipresent. A 2018 file picture shows Egyptian soldiers walking in front of a newly constructed combined-cycle power station on the outskirts of Cairo. (AFP) Economic empire of Egyptian Army under renewed scrutiny

Special Correspondent Hazem Hosni, a professor emeritus of after the uprising. The army’s supporters point out “Armies the world over play a role in economics at Cairo University. “Seri- Egyptians realised the importance that the military provided buses when the economy in the light of the needs ous foreign investors cannot accept to of having an army with a high degree public transport drivers staged strikes of their peoples,” said retired army Cairo compete with the military establish- of self-sufficiency, at least when it seeking a salary rise. They also say the General Gamal Eddine Mazloum. ment or even work under its mandate.” comes to food. Army trucks were seen army used its gasoline stocks to fill the “Claims that the army dominates the are anti-government protests The army has been part of the econ- on the streets across Egypt selling food tanks of civilians’ cars when petrol economy are only aimed at smearing it broke out in Egypt demanding omy for decades, owning non-military at prices far below market prices. The stations across Egypt suffered a fuel and doing away with public trust in the President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi facilities that produce a large number army continues to do this. shortage. military establishment.” R step down, a demonstration of goods, but the military’s involve- reminiscent of the “Arab spring” upris- ment in the economy has grown dra- ings. matically since Sisi became president Protesters gathered September 20 in 2014, observers said. Mounting criticism from exiles had responded to a call by a self-exiled Army factories produce goods from contractor who claimed corruption by kitchen utensils to vehicles. Some fac- the military and government. Videos tories operate under partnerships with sparks calls for pro-Sisi party posted on social media by Mohamed international companies in the United Ali, a relatively unknown actor and States, Europe or Asia. The army oper- film producer, put the role of the mili- ates food production projects, includ- Amr Emam is Egypt’s army.” poverty rate, eliminated many sub- tary establishment in Egypt’s economy ing newly established greenhouses He confirmed the construction of sidies and were strongly opposed by in the spotlight. and fish farms that produce tonnes of presidential palaces but said they segments of the population, especially Ali’s videos purportedly recounted foodstuffs every year. Cairo were constructed for Egypt, not for those lower on the economic ladder. his work with the Engineering Author- With Egypt implementing hundreds him. “Egypt is a big country,” Sisi said. Hundreds of thousands of people ity, the army department responsible of infrastructure projects, including alls are being made for Egyp- “I will even build more palaces in the viewed, shared and retweeted Ali’s for implementing and supervising thousands of kilometres of new roads, tian President Abdel Fattah future.” videos, building social media pressure major development and construction tens of thousands of new flats and new al-Sisi, long-resistant to such Some observers said that, while Sisi against Sisi that led to his statement. projects. He claims he was defrauded cities, the army’s economic role is tak- C an arrangement, to establish a mostly dispelled the allegations, as Adding to Sisi’s difficulties is a by the army and fled to Spain for fear ing centre stage. political party to help him push back president it is not wise for him to per- changing political landscape. Figures of reprisal from the military establish- Ali talks in the videos about con- against increasing attacks by the coun- sonally engage such critics. reminiscent of the 2011 uprising are ment after he demanded his money struction projects either directly im- try’s opposition in exile. “This is why the president needs returning to the spotlight as politi- back. plemented by the army or overseen Sisi had to defend himself against a body to back him and function as a cal foes. That includes activist Wael Ali’s videos have been used by Sisi’s by it through local contracting com- corruption allegations after an actor- channel of communication between Ghonim, who helped connect Egyp- to allege the Egyptian leader and his panies, such as Amlak Misr, which he cum-contractor, now living in Spain, him and the public,” said Akram Badr tians wanting to overthrow long-time administration are corrupt. The Mus- used to own. posted videos online in which he ac- Eddine, a political science professor President Hosni Mubarak. lim Brotherhood is also using the vid- The army does not release figures cused Sisi of squandering billions of at Cairo University. “This body, be it a “The president is badly in need of eos to attack Sisi’s administration. about its economic empire but, in dollars and facilitating the manipula- political party or anything else, would real political agencies that can back The allegations came at a time eco- March, Sisi said the military controls tion of the economy by the Egyptian advise the president and defend his him,” said leading political thinker nomic reforms and austerity have 2-3% of Egypt’s economy. On Sep- Army. policies, especially economic ones.” Hossam Badrawi, who used to be a re- squeezed Egypt’s lower- and middle- tember 2, spokesman Colonel Tamer Mohamed Ali, a 45-year-old con- Sisi is not aligned with any of the former in Mubarak’s National Demo- classes. al-Rifae said the army oversees 2,300 tractor who had a brief acting career more than 100 political parties in cratic Party. In a speech September 17, Sisi dis- projects that employ approximately 5 and worked with the army for years, Egypt and he has been keen on dis- While some say forming a political missed the allegations as “sheer lies.” million civilians. said Sisi misspent exorbitant sums on tancing himself from them since be- party would help the president, others He portrayed Ali’s videos as an attempt The army’s production facilities, the construction of presidential pal- coming president in 2014. He has re- said it could backfire and indicate Sisi to weaken Egypt and undermine the observers said, get preferential treat- aces while most Egyptians suffer in peatedly called on political parties to may be following in Mubarak’s foot- public’s trust in the military. ment when it comes to taxes and en- poverty. merge to make their presence felt in steps. He said he would continue building ergy supplies. The army allegedly uses The Egyptian opposition in exile, the life of ordinary people. “A party controlling this country’s presidential residences for the good of poorly paid conscripts in some pro- including the Muslim Brotherhood, A political party could be impor- political life only because the presi- Egypt. “I am building a new country,” jects, which does other produces gross which runs a number of satellite tel- tant for Sisi’s political career, serving dent belongs to it would be a very bad he said. The president also warned injustice, they claim. evision channels and media outlets as a bulwark against political attacks idea indeed,” said Said Sadek, a politi- Egyptians against protesting or repeat- “This will cause the civilian sector to in Turkey and is backed by the Qatari fuelled by opposition to his economic cal sociology professor at the Ameri- ing the 2011 uprising. shrink,” Hosni said. news channel , used the vid- reforms. can University in Cairo. “Instead of In Egypt, the videos fuelled debate The army’s economic empire has eos to attack Sisi’s administration and Sisi’s administration initiated a having a party, the president should that the involvement of the military been Egypt’s lifeboat since the 2011 encourage Egyptians to rise up against comprehensive reform programme empower the media by giving them establishment would negatively affect uprising that ended the autocracy of the president. in November 2016 that has improved access to information and granting the economy. Hosni Mubarak. The uprising halted “I assure everybody that what was economic indicators, increased for- them more freedom.” “The domination of the military Egypt’s economy, led to the closure of said over the past two weeks was mere eign currency reserves, raised the establishment over economic pro- thousands of factories and caused the lies,” Sisi said September 13 at the Na- economic growth rate and boosted Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly jects will scare investors away from flight of foreign investors. Egypt’s civil- tional Youth Congress in Cairo. “This exports. The changes also raised the contributor in Cairo. putting their money in Egypt,” said ian sector produced very little for years 12 September 22, 2019 News & Analysis Iraq Iraq strives to distance itself from attack on Saudi oil facilities

The Arab Weekly staff

London

n three statements over as many days, Iraq tried to distance itself from an attack against Saudi oil I facilities amid speculation that the strike may have been carried out by Iraqi militias loyal to Iran. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul- Mahdi told NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg that Baghdad “can- not possibly cause harm to any of its neighbours,” a statement from the Iraqi leader’s office said. “The (Iraqi) government has a clear vision on how to deal with internal and external challenges. We work hard to uphold rule of law and con- fine arms to the state. We stressed that our balanced policy serves the stability of Iraq and all the countries of the region,” read the statement. A day earlier, Abdul-Mahdi said he had a phone conversation with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who, a readout by the Iraqi prime minister’s office said, backed Bagh- dad’s assertion that the drone strikes September 14 against Saudi Arabia were not launched from Iraqi terri- tories. “On his part, the US Secretary of State said the information they have confirms the Iraqi government’s statement that its territory was not used to carry out this attack,” read the September 16 statement. Abdul-Mahdi denied Iraq’s in- volvement in the attack on the day after the attack, saying: “Iraq is con- Internal challenges. Members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) at a military camp in Kerbala, last August. () stitutionally committed to prevent- ing any use of its soil to attack its neighbours.” as the Popular Mobilisation Forces ment. He repeatedly warned Iraqi Iran-backed fighters near the Iraqi tensions between Washington and Houthi rebels, who are at war with (PMF), under government control, militias against “irresponsible” ac- border in Syria were reportedly at- Tehran. Riyadh in Yemen, claimed responsi- especially in the event of a conflict tion that would harm Iraq and called tacked with unidentified aircraft on Iraq’s Foreign Ministry said it bility for the attack on Saudi Arabia between the United States and Iran. for the withdrawal of Iraqi militias September 17. would not join a US-led maritime but the Wall Street Journal reported Although the PMF leadership from Syria. The attacks on Saudi Arabia, mission to protect commercial ship- that US and Saudi officials were in- vowed to abide by government di- though not originating from Iraqi ping in the Strait of Hormuz and vestigating the possibility the attack territory, highlight concerns on how other areas. Iraqi Foreign Ministry rections, some militia leaders also Iraqi Prime Minister Adel involved missiles fired from Iraq or promised to stand by Iran and fight the PMF would react should a con- spokesman Ahmad al-Sahhaf said Iran. the United States. Abdul-Mahdi told NATO flict between Iran and the United Baghdad rejects any participation US officials said intelligence as- Several recent unclaimed attacks Secretary-General Jens States or Israel break out. by Israel in the coalition, adding that sessments pointed towards Iran, not against PMF positions near the Syr- Stoltenberg that Baghdad “Regional challenges facing Iraq Gulf security in was the responsibil- Yemen, as the source of the attack. ian border, thought to be carried out “cannot possibly cause will make it even more difficult for ity of Gulf countries. Iran denied direct involvement in by Israel in its fight against Iranian harm to any of its Adel Abdul-Mahdi to bring the (mi- The United States has not con- the attack but said it supported it. proxies, escalated tension and wid- neighbours.” litias) under control,” said Randa firmed Israeli participation in the “The Yemeni people are exercising ened political divisions in Iraq. Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle maritime mission but countries their legitimate right of defence,” On one side is the camp led by On the opposing side are Iranian East Institute in Washington, told named to be included are: Saudi said Iranian President Hassan Rohani influential Iraqi cleric Muqtada al- regime loyalists who advocate de- the . Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Abdul-Mahdi is under pressure to Sadr, whose political bloc has the fending Iran and threaten the United The Iraqi is government is keen , the and keep Iran-backed militias, known largest number of seats in parlia- States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. not to appear as taking sides in the Australia. Viewpoint Washington silent on Iran proxies threatening US citizens in Iraq

raqi television networks Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi? prime ministers since the US-led Even former CENTCOM com- recently aired an interview A total of 52 US diplomats and invasion in 2003. mander and Defence Secretary Tallha with Abu Alaa al-Walai, the civilians were taken hostage by Again, trucks carrying explo- James Mattis said in recently Abdulrazaq commander of the Kata’ib Iranian hardliners who stormed sives rammed into the embassies published memoirs that failure Sayyid al-Shuhada Shia the US Embassy in Tehran and but faulty rigging meant that by the Obama administration to militia, during which he held them for 444 days until they many people’s lives were saved, act forcefully against Iran when it Idirectly threatened the United squeezed concessions out of the though four civilians were killed. planned to kill Saudi diplomats States. Carter administration. Other attacks in a 90-minute in Washington allowed Iran to Walai said any military action A little more than two years timeframe targeted ’s feel emboldened to do more. by the United States against Iran later, in October 1983, and while petrochemical and water The Trump administration would cause his militia and likely the Iran-Iraq War raged, Iran set desalination facilities as well as cannot afford to make the same countless other Shia jihadist its proxies loose once again, this airport infrastructure, killing one mistake. The more unruly Iran groups linked to Iran to target US time in Lebanon. The target was civilian becomes, the higher the risk of a citizens in Iraq, whether civilian a military compound in Beirut It is clear Iran has set a prec- much larger conflict. It is a safer or military. that housed US and French edent in activating proxies strategic undertaking for the Walai vowed that all Americans peacekeepers deployed as part of against any country it deems to White House to begin to clip in Iraq would be taken hostage to a multinational force during the be moving against its interests, Iran’s wings now rather than force the US government to back Lebanese civil war. particularly the United States. later, particularly in Iraq, which down over Iran. His threat should Apart from the two Iran- Walai and his ilk are the direct Iran could easily use as a forward be taken extremely seriously. backed suicide bombers, 305 descendants of the radicals who operating base in any potential Walai’s militia is a proxy of people were killed in the attack, perpetrated these and other conflict with the United States. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary including 241 US military attacks at Iran’s behest and will The Americans could do a lot Guard Corps, a political-military personnel, 58 French troops and do so again at the drop of a hat. worse than to start with thugs It is clear Iran has set formation that uses six civilians. If Washington is serious about like Walai and begin to neutralise a precedent in and hostage-taking to further the A couple of months after that tackling Iranian expansionism such threats before they become aims and objectives of Ayatollah attack, both the US and French and threats to US interests and a reality. activating proxies Ruhollah Khomeini’s “Islamic” diplomatic missions in Kuwait citizens, it cannot remain silent against any country it revolution since 1979. were targeted by Iran-backed while Iran sics its hounds on Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher Who can forget the US Embassy terrorists, suspected to be Americans and threatens them at the University of ’s deems to be moving hostage crisis that began almost members of the Iraqi Dawa Party with violence to extort the Strategy and Security Institute in against its interests. as soon as Khomeini had ousted that has provided most of Iraq’s world’s most powerful country. . September 22, 2019 13 News & Analysis Syria

US still absent as Syrian Constitutional Committee sees light

Sami Moubayed saying that appeased and empowered non- in Syria, such as Turkmen, Circassians and, more specifically, Beirut Kurds. They were also furious with stripping the office of the president he Syrian Constitutional of some rights, including naming the Committee will finally see prime minister and governor of the the light following a break- central bank or leading weekly cabi- T through meeting involving net meetings. the presidents of Turkey, Russia and The opposition was equally un- Iran. No date has been finalised as to satisfied, saying those rights were when and how the committee will purely ceremonial, so long as the ju- start work or when it will finish, how- diciary, security services and army ever. remained vested in the presidency. UN Security Council Resolution The government team was also un- 2254 called for “constitutional re- happy with a clause calling for local forms,” rather than a new constitu- parliaments that elect a second house tion, as an objective in Syria. The to complement the central parlia- government delegation wants the ment in Damascus, saying this was committee to amend the charter of a thinly veiled form of federalism. In 2012, rather than develop a new doc- 2018, they flatly rejected it and insist- Presidents Hassan Rohani of Iran (R), Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey (C) ument. Opposition hardliners say the ed they would continue to do so. Scrumble for influence. and Vladimir Putin of Russia after a news conference in Ankara, September 16. (Reuters) political process has been dwarfed The Russian draft also said that from presidential decapitation and a sitting president can only serve creation of a transitional government two consecutive seven-year terms into “constitutional amendments.” in office but with no reverse effect. Meaning President Bashar Assad can nominate himself for two consecu- Plenty of work needs to tive terms once Syrians go to the polls Summit underscores be done before the in 2021. If the talks drag on until that constitutional committee date and a constitution is only passed bears fruit. after the elections, Assad could get another 14 years in office after the Turkey’s growing Stripped of the vast territory that end of his fourth term in 2028. was once under their control, howev- Plenty of work needs to be done er, they are in an extremely weak ne- before the constitutional committee gotiating position, especially consid- bears fruit. For starters, a decision ering what seems to be high harmony needs to be made on whether the dependence on Russia between Russian President Vladimir committee will go for “constitutional Putin, Iranian President Hassan reforms,” as mentioned in Security Rohani and Turkish President Re- Council Resolution 2254, or a new cep Tayyip Erdogan. That harmony constitution. Thomas Seibert steady advance of Syrian forces, Erdogan said the talks were “produc- cost them strategic territory such as Second, a timetable needs to be for- backed by Russian airpower, into the tive” and that they had taken “im- , East Ghouta, Daraa and Khan mulated, with a monitoring authority region, despite a series of ceasefires. portant decisions.” Sheikhoun in the Idlib countryside. that has clear terms of reference. Will Istanbul Turkey has 12 observation posts in The parties also agreed on a con- An agreement reached by the three it be the UN-mandated Geneva pro- Idlib to enforce a buffer zone agree- stitutional committee — to include leaders stated that the committee cess, which first called for the consti- urkey is more dependent on ment struck a year ago with Russia pro-government, opposition and would include 150 people: 50 for the tutional committee? Or will it be the Russia than ever to safeguard to prevent a full-scale Syrian offen- independent members–— setting a government, 50 for the opposition Astana Process, which hoards Syrian its interests in the Syrian con- sive but the posts look increasingly course for talks in Geneva. Iranian and 50 for independents representing affairs in the hands of Russia, Turkey T flict. threatened, with one cut off from the President Hassan Rohani said he civil society. The government and op- and Iran, reducing the At a Turkish-Russian-Iranian sum- rest of Idlib when Syrian forces ad- hoped elections would take place in position delegations would co-chair and United Nations to mere observ- mit September 16 in Ankara, Turk- vanced in August. Syria in 2020 or 2021. The next sum- the committee and decisions would ers in Syria’s future. ish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Russian air strikes have contin- mit is scheduled to be in Iran in the be made based on two-thirds major- The Americans are present only by failed to get assurances from Russian ued in the region despite a ceasefire coming months, Erdogan said. ity. name in the first process and totally President Vladimir Putin to stop a agreed by Ankara and Moscow on UN Secretary-General Antonio A delay was caused by Damascus absent from the second, seemingly military offensive by Syrian govern- August 31. Guterres confirmed that “agreement objecting to six names on the civil uninterested in such micro-affairs, ment forces in Idlib province, which “A zone of de-escalation should among all parties on the composition society list, saying that although which have been left to the Russians borders Turkey. not serve as a terrain for armed prov- of the committee” had been reached. dubbed independents, they were pro- to sort out. This is music to the ears of The fighting could send up to 1 mil- ocations,” Putin said. “We must take UN Syria Envoy “Geir Pedersen is do- opposition at heart, chosen for the Erdogan, Putin and Rohani. lion refugees into Turkey, Turkish of- supplementary measures to com- ing the final work with the parties in task by former UN Special Envoy Staf- ficials estimated. Ankara is under pletely destroy the terrorist menace relation to the terms of reference and fan de Mistura. The same argument growing domestic pressure because that comes from the zone of Idlib.” we hope that this will be very soon was voiced by the opposition, only What kind of constitution of the 3.6 million Syrians it already Erdogan reiterated Turkey’s plan concluded,” Guterres said. in reverse. It has been agreed that emerges for Syria is not hosts. to set up a “safe zone” in US-con- With Russia being the dominant instead of the six names in question, on US President Donald Putin said Russia was ready to sup- trolled eastern Syria. Ankara wants military force in Syria, Turkey is Damascus will select four and the op- Trump’s priorities, no port the Syrian Army in targeted ac- to use the zone to push back the Syr- unable to push through its own in- position two for the civil society list. more than ever with his tions on terrorists in Syria. Moscow ian Kurdish People’s Protection Units terests without the green light from Turkey voiced objections to one own election year around and Damascus say the advance in (YPG) militia, a US partner seen as a Moscow. Observers said the same is person specified by the Syrian gov- the corner. Idlib, started in April, is necessary to terrorist organisation by Turkey. The true in other policy fields. Western ernment, Daham Hadi al-Jarba, an fight extremists. Turkish leader said the “safe zone” governments are concerned that An- Arab tribal chief in north-eastern Syr- Prominent Syria expert David A statement issued after the sum- should be extended to eventually kara’s traditional ties to the West are ia who co-chairs Jazira canton with Lesch told The Arab Weekly: “The mit, the fifth meeting of its kind provide homes for 3 million return- loosening. the US-backed Syrian Democratic crux of the situation is whether or since the tripartite initiative began in ing Syrian refugees. One issue that has increased those Forces. Ankara said he is too close to not a watered down constitutional 2017, mentioned alarm about the risk Erdogan added his government fears is Erdogan’s decision to buy the Kurds and wanted him replaced. committee can produce a workable of a further deterioration of the hu- was working on convening an inter- the Russian S-400 missile defence That detail was overruled at the pres- document that meets the very little manitarian situation in Idlib, a region national conference on the issue. He system, which the United States and idential summit. of what the Syrian government wants with 3 million people. The statement told Reuters he planned to convene Turkey’s European partners say is in- Last year, Russian lawmakers pre- to give up in terms of any semblance said there was an agreement to take a summit with the leaders of France, compatible with NATO assets. Wash- sented a blueprint for what they envi- of a more decentralised political sys- steps to improve the fate of civilians Germany and Russia in October, ington has suspended Turkish par- sioned could be a draft constitution, tem while meeting the minimum de- but there were no details of how this similar to a meeting in Istanbul last ticipation in the United States’ F-35 leaking it through various media mands of an opposition bereft of any could be achieved. year. There has been no word on a fighter jet programme over concerns outlets to monitor public reaction. leverage.” Lesch, a university pro- Russia and Iran are supporters of new meeting in that format from the that the S-400 could be used to spy Whether it is to be considered at the fessor, added: “The Russians want Syrian President Bashar Assad, while other powers. on the American warplane. actual talks is yet to be seen, given this badly in order to politically con- Turkey has called for his ouster and “The S-400 purchase will likely strong objections from both the gov- secrate what they already view as a backed opposition fighters. With As- deepen Turkey’s dependence on ernment and opposition. military victory in Syria.” sad’s position looking increasingly Erdogan failed to get Russia in a strategically important The Russian draft dropped Article What kind of constitution emerg- secure, Turkey’s priority has shifted assurances from Putin to field — military-technical coopera- 3 of the present constitution, which es for Syria is not on US President to preventing a mass influx of refu- stop a military offensive tion, with possible sales of Su-type says the religion of the president is Is- Donald Trump’s priorities, no more gees from Idlib. by Syrian government Russian warplanes and Pantsir mis- lam. This clause has been included in than ever with his own election year “We are in complete agreement in forces in Idlib province, sile system to Turkey,” Kerim Has, an every Syrian charter since 1920. around the corner. He has constantly aiming for a lasting political solution which borders Turkey. expert on Russian-Turkish relations, Islamists in the opposition were been more interested in eradicating for Syria’s political unity and territo- said by telephone from Moscow. furious, demanding its restoration, the Islamic State, empowering the rial integrity,” Erdogan said in a tel- In reference to the Kurds, the An- “It’s hard to rule out a scenario in saying in addition to being religious- Kurds and clipping Iran’s wings in evised statement. kara statement said groups trying “to which the Russian Army technical ly incorrect for a Christian to lead a Syria. Whether Assad stays or leaves However, three days after the An- create new realities on the ground” support rotation slowly transforms Muslim country, this would serve the is of no interest to him and he is will- kara meeting, Russia and China ve- and advance “illegitimate self-rule into a permanent military presence objectives of the Syrian government, ing to settle for any endgame, even toed a UN Security Council resolu- initiatives” were not acceptable. in Turkey and this dependence on which markets itself as a protector of if it’s tailor-made to fit the liking of tion, backed by 12 of the 15 council Turkey has repeatedly threatened Moscow would impede Turkey’s minorities. Vladimir Putin. members, that called for a ceasefire to launch a cross-border offensive pursuit of its interests in regions Ba’athists were unhappy with the in Idlib. It was Russia’s 13th veto of a against the YPG. Erdogan said the in- as varied as the Caucasus, Crimea, Russian draft because it changed the Sami Moubayed is a Syrian histo- UN resolution since the Syrian con- tervention could start within weeks. the Black Sea, the Balkans, the name of the country from “Syrian rian and author of “Under the Black flict erupted in 2011. Statements to the media after the Middle East and the Eastern Medi- Arab Republic” to “Syrian Republic,” Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Turkey is concerned over the summit were short on specifics but terranean. 14 September 22, 2019 News & Analysis Lebanon

Viewpoint Lebanese left to cope with own Vichy syndrome

former Israeli agents as “emi- gres,” which Hezbollah seems to condone. By giving the FPM this much- Makram Rabah needed win, Hezbollah is empowering its main Christian he return of Amer ally, allowing Bassil to come Elias Fakhoury, a across as the strong man who, senior officer of the through his alliance with the decommissioned Shias, has protected his minority South Lebanon Army, community from the hegemony a local militia that of . Tcollaborated with Israel during Interestingly, neither Hezbol- its occupation of southern lah, the FPM nor the Lebanese Lebanon, has unleashed a storm state has gone on record com- of controversy. menting on the Fakhoury affair, Fakhoury, the former warden an indication that the issue will of the infamous Al Khiam likely be resolved the usual concentration camp, returned to Machiavellian way. Lebanon from exile in the United States, where he had become a naturalised citizen, after the Fakhoury, “the statute of limitations ran out on the legal charges against him. Butcher of Khiam,” Factions inside the Lebanese will escape government, including President ’s Free Patriotic punishment. His dual Movement (FPM), assisted US citizenship and his Fakhoury and assured him that alleged arrangement he was safe to return. Adding insult to injury, with Bassil will allow Fakhoury is reported to have him to safely return to been escorted by a high-ranking Perfect storm. A man uses binoculars to watch over the border with Israel at the “Garden of Iran” Lebanese Army officer who exile. Park, which was built by the Iranian government, in the southern Lebanese village of Maroun al-Ras, helped facilitate his entry. (AFP) on September 2. Pictures surfaced appearing to Perhaps the most crucial show Fakhoury voting in recent element of the Fakhoury affair is parliamentary elections abroad its ability to expose the Lebanese and attending social functions in Vichy syndrome. Just as the the Lebanese Embassy in French at the end of the second Washington, hosted by Aoun’s world war largely lacked shame Hezbollah watches Ambassador to the United States over their prior collaboration Gabriel Issa. with the Nazis, most Lebanese Fakhoury’s return would have Christians seem to feel no likely gone unnoticed had the burden over their previous media and his former concentra- collaboration with Israel. as storm clouds tion camp victims not taken to This bleak reality has led some the streets demanding he be Lebanese to return to war-time brought to justice. Now, Fak- political divisions, with propo- houry has been detained by nents of Lebanon’s leftist Lebanese authorities and will be resistance to Israel accusing the gather over the Gulf questioned by the judiciary. right-wing Christians of collabo- Fakhoury’s scandal is the tip of ration. the iceberg. There are hundreds Unfortunately, as events have Simon Speakman Cordall the Israeli border. flict between Hezbollah and Israel of other alleged collaborators shown, Fakhoury, “the Butcher On September 1, both sides ex- continues, they “do not have the who have had their records of Khiam,” will escape punish- changed fire over the border. Eight global repercussions of those ema- expunged and who have ment. His dual US citizenship Tunis days later, Hezbollah fighters nating from US-Iranian tensions. returned to Lebanon to visit and his alleged arrangement claimed to have downed an Israeli They are an important factor on a friends and family or even settle with Bassil will allow him to ith tensions between drone over southern Lebanon. That regional scale. Israel is among the down. safely return to exile. the United States and was less than a week before the United States’ closest allies and The phenomena can only be Even more tragic is that the Iran increasing after a Ramage’s visit. Hezbollah is one of the primary se- understood when looking at a Lebanese and their state have, W drone and missile strike For Western planners, post-war curity threats which Israel faces,” memorandum of understanding yet again, proven their inability targeted Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil Lebanon has provided opportu- Abi-Hanna said. signed between the FPM and to properly tackle issues such as facility, the position of Lebanon, as nity and threat, a contradiction en- However, it is perhaps Iran’s con- Hezbollah in February 2006, nationhood collaboration or the operational base of Hezbollah, capsulated with the arrival of the trol over Hezbollah and its influ- which allowed the latter to retain governance and, while people one of Tehran’s most potent allies, Ramage. Lebanon’s confessional ence in Lebanon that are driving US its Iran-supplied arsenal. have been distracted by the has taken on new significance. system of governance offers a rare interest. Article Six of the document Fakhoury affair, Hezbollah has Lebanon is of concern to US dip- example of people from different “The Hezbollah-Israel tensions tackles the thorny issue of the diverted attention from Iran’s lomats chiefly because of tensions creeds and sects coming together as they are related to Iran’s regional “Lebanese in Israel” and pledges efforts to hijack the Lebanese between Hezbollah and another within a democratic framework to growing precision missile facilities to find a solution to end their state for its ends. US ally, Israel. Should the tensions establish peaceful government but and production are very important predicament and make it brewing in the Gulf explode into it also remains home to Hezbollah to the US,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a possible for them to return to Makram Rabah is a lecturer at war, the future of Lebanon may take and its weapons arsenal. visiting fellow at the Washington In- Lebanon. To avoid calling them the American University of Beirut on worldwide significance. Partially out of a recognition of stitute. “Although it is doubtful that collaborators, Gebran Bassil, and author of “A Campus at War: Lebanon’s rare political position, the US is going to go beyond sanc- Lebanon’s foreign minister and Student Politics at the American partly out of an understanding of its tions as measures to contain Hez- Aoun’s son-in-law, refers to University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” Hanin Ghaddar location with borders on both Israel bollah, Israel might take different a visiting fellow at the and Syria, the United States and its measures, similar to the Dahiyeh Washington Institute Western allies are significantly in- drone attack and Iraq-Syria strategy vested in the Lebanese state. to eliminate these facilities. The US “The Hezbollah-Israel Over the last decade, the United will probably help with intelligence tensions as they are related States is thought to have provided and diplomatic means.” to Iran’s regional growing Lebanon’s armed forces with $2.3 That relationship could drasti- precision missile facilities and billion in aid. The United Kingdom cally shift. “That might change if production are very important and France have contributed in a serious confrontation starts be- to the US.” shoring up the Lebanese Army to tween the US and Iran. Hezbollah create a state-controlled bulwark has already made statements saying against Hezbollah’s and, by exten- that it will not stand aside and Iran Underscoring Lebanon’s role on sion, Iran’s growing military influ- might want to use Hezbollah — its the world stage was the visit to Bei- ence in the country and region. strongest force in the region — if rut of the USS Ramage, a US Navy However, the standoff with Iran and when a big war breaks,” Ghad- Arleigh-Burke-class guided mis- and growing tensions between Hez- dar said. sile destroyer, the same day as the bollah and Israel positioned Leba- Lebanon remains at the periph- Aramco attack and marking the first non as a key player in the Middle ery of the storm brewing over the such visit by a US ship to Lebanon in East drama. Gulf. However, for Hezbollah, well- more than 30 years. “Lebanon itself is relatively low in equipped by Iran and with legions Ostensibly, the Ramage stop was regional priorities for the US,” said of fighters hardened by battle expe- an expression of goodwill but the Thomas Abi-Hanna, a global secu- rience in Syria positioned along the timing was unlikely coincidental, rity analyst with intelligence ana- Israeli border, how long that might coming during escalating US sanc- lysts Stratfor, “but it is important remain the case is uncertain. Reopening old wounds. A former inmate of Khiam prison chants tions on Hezbollah members and al- in the role that it plays in tensions slogans during a sit-in near a military court in Beirut where an lied institutions, including the Jam- between the US and Iran.” Simon Speakman Cordall is a arrest warrant was issued for Lebanese-American Amer Fakhoury, mal Trust Bank and tensions along While the relatively limited con- freelance writer. September 17. (AP) September 22, 2019 15 Spotlight Arabs in the West Under-researched and largely invisible, British Arabs have great potential

Karen Dabrowska

London

report assessing how much research has been done on Arab communities in the A United Kingdom said little data existed on the “largely invisible” group. The report prepared by the Council for the Advancement of Arab-British Understanding (CAABU) is to be pub- lished in October but main findings were released during a panel discus- sion in London. CAABU Director Chris Doyle said that for six months researcher Kholood Mohammed collated re- search and assessed what is known and not known about British-Arab communities. “[The project] is based on the sin- cere belief that vibrant, confident, par- ticipative British-Arab communities are a huge asset to Britain and that as it stands and the research bore out, we do not know or understand enough about their successes, achievements and challenges,” Doyle said. “Over decades, I have spoken to members of these communities and the notable feature is that everything is anecdotal. People in community ‘x’ are worried about this; people are not joining political parties because of ‘y.’ British enough. Liberal Democrat MP for Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran. (Courtesy of Layla Moran) On the issue of numbers, I have heard a whole range of figures ranging from bridge builders, challenging many Media and Sport, also took part on the 100,000-strong Moroccan commu- North African Arabs [Moroccans and 500,000 to as high as 3 million but stereotypes and misunderstandings panel. She is the first British-Palestini- nity. Algerians] are engaging in countries with no data ever to substantiate this.” about their culture,” he said. an member of Parliament. She said many of the first Moroccan where they live more than other Ar- The report said British-Arab com- Mohammed said the British-Arab “It was a bit of a crisis of confidence immigrants who arrived in the United abs.” munities are largely invisible, often community was “severely under-re- to stand for parliament because when Kingdom in the 1960s were women Talsi said her message to the Arab ignored as a BAME (black, Asian and searched.” I first got into politics I thought: ‘Am I who subsequently brought their hus- community was: “We are here [in Brit- minority ethnic) community or sub- “There are some great examples of British enough?’” Moran said. bands. ain]. We have chosen to live here and sumed merely as British Muslims. British-Arab community centres but “The combined heritage is who I therefore I am not saying assimilate “While British Arabs remain largely many are underfunded and lack good am. One of my proudest moments as but embrace this culture that we are invisible in British life, their concerns online presence and resources, while an MP was when I was questioning British-Arab communities part of.” will not be listened to and so their British-Arab figures and young talents Boris Johnson on Palestinian issues. are largely invisible, often “Our children go to school with representation will be less than their are difficult to trace,” she said. He made some ridiculous comments ignored as a BAME (black, British children and children from dif- numbers,” Doyle said. “We know that The report recommended strength- when he was foreign secretary and I Asian and minority ethnic) ferent backgrounds but the common denominator is Britain and Britain because other communities have ening of those centres, encouraging found having that personal dimension community or subsumed made great progress, including British British-Arab participation in politics, from the region got him to say things has many cultures,” she said. “A Saudi Muslims of non-Arab descent.” updating community reports and and admit things that he would not merely as British Muslims. woman is different from a Moroccan Doyle emphasised that CAABU’s vi- spreading awareness by encouraging ordinarily do,” Moran said. woman because we have a cultural sion is to accelerate increasing British- people to tick the Arab box in the 2021 Souad Talsi, founder of Al-Hasani- “What does it mean to be an Arab?” heritage that makes us who we are but Arab participation in public life, not census. ya, the only pan-Arab women centre Talsi asked. “Is it the Arab who goes the common denominator is being just in politics but in all fields, includ- Layla Moran, the Liberal Democrat in London and a UN Economic and to Harrods and shops all day? Is it the British-Arabs.” ing business, media, culture and edu- MP for Oxford West and Abingdon Social Council accredited charity that Arab who works in a hotel as a waiter? cation. and the party’s Shadow Cabinet mem- supports Moroccans, gave a brief in- Children should be encouraged to Karen Dabrowska is an Arab Weekly “British Arabs can act as fantastic ber for Education and Digital, Culture, troduction to the United Kingdom’s speak about their origin at school. The contributor in London. Viewpoint In the 2020 vote, there is no monolithic Arab-American bloc

he question arises Indeed, it’s a mishmash of must have had a slew of other Palestinians. with every presiden- wants and needs. Traditionally, choices presented to him by Given Trump’s stands on the tial election: How will conservative Arabs tended to military and political advisers. Israeli-Palestinian debate one Claude Salhani vote? lean more towards Republicans He chose inaction. might wrongly assume the Will they give their who hold the same beliefs of Granted, the Syrian-American Arab-American vote would be support to the strong family values, with the vote will not change the US solidly set against him and his TDemocrats or to the Republi- core of the family being the presidential landscape but hopes of winning a second cans? mother and father. They do not ignoring the violence in Syria term. The answer is that there is no encourage same-sex marriages may have pushed a number of However, things are not clear monolithic Arab-American and frown on abortion. voters to the Republican side. cut. Arabs of Syrian origin voted political stance. More liberal Arab Americans Then look at the way US for Trump because they were The Arab-American commu- look towards the Democrats as President Donald Trump has displeased with Obama’s nity in the United States is being more in line with their treated the Palestinians and indecision on the slaughter that divided over the various issues political beliefs but here, too, wonder if any American of was going on in Syria. Mean- that concern them and they look they face a choice. The Demo- Palestinian origin is likely to vote while, Iraqi Christians and at how a candidate’s foreign cratic Party has historically been for Trump or the Republican Chaldeans who voted for Trump policy would affect their commu- closer to Israel. Party ever again. were disappointed by the nities in the lands of the ances- When voting for president, “What Trump has done to the disregard that Western powers tors. Their reactions and view- Arab Americans tend to look at Palestinians, in moving the US had for the fate that awaited points are as diverse as the the candidates’ records and how Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusa- many of their coreligionists who accents of speakers of Arabic they reacted to situations lem is the second-worst thing that had the misfortune of falling from the countries that stretch affecting their countries of has happened to the Palestinians victim to the madness of the from to Saudi Arabia. origin. Example: How President since the Balfour Declaration (in Islamic State. Typically, they gauge which Barack Obama failed to react in a 1917), said Khaled Saffuri, director It is hard to predict what the candidate is better equipped to positive manner at an earlier of the National Interest Founda- Arab-American vote will be in serve their community. In that stage in the now 8-year-old civil tion in Washington. 2020 or how it is likely to affect manner, Arab Americans are no war ripping Syria apart. Americans of Palestinian origin the general outcome but the different than any other group of Obama did not have to order have a choice to make and in Arab-American community is, in It is hard to predict immigrants in the United States American boots on the ground. 2020 — support the Democratic general, not very pleased with what the Arab- to seek a better life for their He had options. He could have Party, which attracts much of the this president’s decisions and children. used drones. He could have Jewish vote and has been indecision. American vote will be When it comes to voting for the ordered the US Navy’s 6th Fleet, sympathetic to Israel, or give in 2020 or how it is next president of the United cruising in the eastern Mediter- their support to Trump’s Repub- Claude Salhani is a regular States, the Arab-American ranean, to fire Tomahawk lican Party after Trump demon- columnist for The Arab Weekly and likely to impact the community can hardly be missiles at selected targets in strated a clear bias for Israel a senior fellow at the Institute of general outcome. counted as a single bloc. Syria. The American president much to the detriment of the World Affairs in Washington. 16 September 22, 2019 News & Analysis Israeli Elections Netanyahu seeks to stay in power despite Likud’s failure to win parliamentary election

The Arab Weekly staff Former Israeli Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beiteinu party secured eight seats, is London being touted as a potential kingmak- er. He said he supports a “broad lib- sraeli Prime Minister Binyamin eral unity government” that would Netanyahu was seeking to stay include Yisrael Beiteinu, Blue and in office despite his Likud par- White and Likud. I ty’s failure to finish first in Is- raeli elections September 17. Netanyahu proposed leading The Blue and White “a broad unity government” that secured 33 out of the 120 would include Likud in alliance parliament seats while with the Blue and White alliance, Likud won 31. which won the most Knesset seats in the vote and is led by former Lieberman, however, announced army chief Benny Gantz. that he would not work with Israel’s Although open to entering an alli- ultra-Orthodox parties, which he ac- ance with Likud, Gantz said that he, cused of seeking to impose religious not Netanyahu, should lead the co- law on all Israelis. alition and become prime minister. Lieberman’s insistence on that “Blue and White, headed by me, has issue led to the failure of coalition won the election,” said Gantz. “Blue talks with Likud after the April elec- and White is the largest party.” tion. He said he is sticking by his de- The Blue and White secured 33 mands. “We will not accept any less out of the 120 seats while Likud than that even at the cost of sitting in won 31. A governing coalition needs the opposition,” said Lieberman. at least 61 parliamentary seats and Yohanan Plesner, president of the neither Likud nor the Blue and non-partisan Israel Democracy Insti- White has secured that number in tute think-tank, told the Associated alliances with smaller parties will- Press that Netanyahu’s iron-clad alli- ing to join one or the other. ance with the ultra-Orthodox is cost- Israeli President Reuven Rivlin is ing him politically. to begin consultations with party The election’s third-biggest win- leaders about their preference for ner was the Arab Joint List, com- Last chapter begins. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu (C) looks on after speaking to prime minister before choosing the prised mainly of Palestinian citizens supporters at his Likud party headquarters in Tel Aviv, September 18. (Reuters) candidate he thinks has the best of Israel, which claimed 13 seats fol- chance to form a coalition. lowing strong turnout by its commu- The consultation period normally nity members. tinian territories but it wants to im- but it might also be reflecting a desire ture Israeli leader. lasts around two days, a statement Joint List officials said they would prove living conditions for its com- for a partnership with Israeli Jews “Whoever will be able to form a from Rivlin’s office said. If the main not be part of a governing coalition munity members, who have long based solely on merit and self-re- government, we are ready to sit with rivals fail to form a government — but there is a possibility the alliance complained of systemic discrimina- spect,” Ronit Marzan, a researcher in him or her to restart the negotia- whether a unity one or in alliance could become Israel’s official oppo- tion. Palestinian politics and society in the tions,” Palestinian Foreign Minister with smaller parties — then it is pos- sition, should Likud form an alliance “The increase in Arab voter turn- University of Haifa, wrote in Haaretz. Riyad al-Maliki said on September sible that another election could be with Blue and White. out… could be seen as a kind of re- The West Bank-based Palestinian 18 in Oslo. Maliki reiterated the Pal- called, which would be the third The Joint List refused to be part of venge for the racist and exclusionary Authority expressed its willingness estinian Authority’s insistence on a since April. a government that occupies Pales- language of the Netanyahu-led right to engage in dialogue with any fu- two-state solution for peace. Viewpoint In terms of the peace narrative, Netanyahu wins even when he loses

he ballots in Israeli unprecedented election. Both the most visible evidence of a side with the state of Israel in peace Prime Minister Biny- Likud and the rival Blue and White radical transformation in the terms and security on the 1967 lines.” Geoffrey amin Netanyahu’s won fewer Knesset seats than the of reference used to frame Israel’s However accurate such lamenta- Aronson historic campaign for April contest, complicating the diplomacy towards the occupied tions, they are all but irrelevant to re-election were still creation of a coalition. Netanyahu territories. the balance of forces today. being counted when may well have lost this election but Whereas Netanyahu promises to Netanyahu’s recent announce- TIsraeli bulldozers arrived at the it is also the case that the opposi- annex Hebron, there was a time ments heralding annexation West Bank village of Haje. tion, headed by former Chief-of- when, by signing the Hebron generated a lot of noise. It is a fair The Palestinian press agency Staff Benny Gantz, failed to win. agreement in 1997, he acknowl- bet that the next Israeli govern- WAFA said 145 dunams of agricul- Former Netanyahu Chief-of-Staff edged a role for the Palestine ment, whoever leads it, will have tural land owned by five families Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Liberation Organisation in the more urgent issues than annexation were cleared to enable the expan- Yisrael Beiteinu party, may well largest Palestinian city in the West of the West Bank to address. sion of a nearby block of settle- emerge as the kingmaker in efforts Bank. One of the prime minister’s ments. to construct a ruling majority. Similarly, as a new prime minister insights, however, stands out. He Whether or not Netanyahu Lieberman, a native of Moldova, in 2009, Netanyahu allied himself noted that whereas in the past — succeeds in extending his unprec- is fiercely secular and an opponent squarely with the international actually since June 1967 — all edented tenure as Israel’s longest of the outsized power wielded by consensus in declared acknowl- discussion about Israeli-Palestinian service prime minster, unremark- Israel’s growing ultra-religious edgement of the positive role diplomacy focused on how much able events such as the one at Haje community. His natural constitu- played by a Palestinian state. In territory Israel would “give,” the will continue to define Israeli ency is the 1 million Russians who what became known as the Bar Ilan focus is now on how much Israel policy. have moved to Israel in recent speech, Netanyahu declared: will “take” of the West Bank. There is no hope that the results decades. “Friends, we must state the “You need to prepare interna- of the election in Israel will slow Lieberman’s signature foreign whole truth here. The truth is that tional public opinion. First, I had to Israel’s relentless determination to policy credentials rest on his in the area of our homeland, in the block the immense pressure from create settlement “facts” through- support for occupying Gaza and heart of our Jewish Homeland, now the previous [Obama] administra- out the West Bank and East Jerusa- annexing settlement areas of the lives a large population of Palestin- tion to return to the 1967 borders,” lem. Israel’s occupation of the West West Bank as part of a “swap” that ians. We do not want to rule over Netanyahu said in an interview on Bank and the associated policy of would see parts of Israel where them. We do not want to run their the eve of the election. “Over the settlement construction, which Arabs are a majority transferred to a lives. We do not want to force our last three years, I have been leading over the last half century has Palestinian state. He is insisting on flag and our culture on them. In my a historic shift. We are no longer radically altered the area’s physical the creation of a national unity vision of peace, there are two free talking about what we will give up and demographic landscape, was all government open to all except the peoples living side by side in this but about what we will take and but absent as a campaign issue. Arab Joint List, on course to be the small land, with good neighbourly where we apply sovereignty.” When it comes to Israel’s appetite third largest bloc in the Knesset. relations and mutual respect, each Netanyahu is correct in this for Palestinian lands, the differ- No matter the composition of the with its flag, anthem and govern- central point. He has moved ences between Netanyahu’s Likud new government or indeed if one ment, with neither one threatening diplomacy 180 degrees in this and his myriad challengers — left can be formed without yet another its neighbour’s security and direction. Whatever the results of and right — barely register. election, Netanyahu has perma- existence.” Israel’s election, Netanyahu has Netanyahu’s failed effort to nently altered the terms upon This era has ended. The Obama upended half a century of Middle cobble together a majority of 61 in which Israel will engage the future administration’s diplomatic failure East diplomacy. He has forced the the 120-member Knesset after of the West Bank. Election season marked the ignominious end of US world to contemplate what Israelis elections last April set the stage for declarations of intent to annex efforts to force Netanyahu to have long understood — that the It is a fair bet that the the vote September 17. His plans various parts of the West Bank, honour his pledge and agree to an policy of “creating facts” on the next Israeli collapsed not because of a dispute notably the Jordan Valley and, more Israeli retreat from the West Bank. ground paves the way for Israel’s government, whoever about grand occupation strategy recently, Hebron, helped energise Trump’s soon-to-be-revealed Deal expansion, annexation and the but for far more prosaic differences Netanyahu’s supporters and of the Century only confirms this. destruction of the territorial base leads it, will have over whether mandatory military sparked international opposition. Palestinian senior official Saeb for Palestinian sovereignty. more urgent issues service should apply to ultra-Ortho- As prime minister, Netanyahu Erekat said Israel “cannot have dox Jews. may have an opportunity to make peace or security without ending Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resident than annexation of the The results of the vote failed to good on such promises but his the occupation, without two states, scholar at the Middle East Institute West Bank to address. resolve the crisis that produced the enthusiasm for annexation is only the to live side by in Washington. September 22, 2019 17 News & Analysis Turkey Istanbul memorial site prods Turks deal with painful past

Constanze Letsch programme coordinator Nayat Kara- kose said. Similar initiatives in other parts of Istanbul the country have not come to frui- tion, such as at the infamous prison black memorial stone set in the predominantly Kurdish me- in the pavement just out- tropolis of Diyarbakir, turned into a side of the old offices of the military martial law facility for polit- A Armenian-Turkish weekly ical prisoners following the violent newspaper Agos in Istanbul reminds coup on September 11, 1980. passers-by that, on January 19, 2007, In Istanbul, sites of torture, dis- Healing power of remembrance. People hold placards reading “Justice for Hrant. We are all Armenian” in well-known Armenian-Turkish jour- placement and political struggle front of the offices of the weekly newspaper Agos in Istanbul, last January. (AFP) nalist and intellectual Hrant Dink have been demolished, refurbished was assassinated there. or turned into luxury hotels and The trauma of his death left a shopping centres. “There are many deep scar in the collective memory places that need to be remembered in 15 countries and visited similar crimination, hate, expropriations, the extraordinary work of an ordi- of Turkey. Twelve years later, jus- for what happened there,” Basoz projects in South Africa, Mexico, the military coup in 1980, torture nary person,” said Karakose. “In Tur- tice remains elusive. The recently said. “Remembering is an activity. Argentina, Chile, Poland, Germany, and genocide. key, we are being taught not to re- opened “23.5 Hrant Dink Site of It’s not passive. The way we imagine Hungary, the United Kingdom, Ire- However, Basoz and Karakose member but to forget — by the state Memory,” named for an article writ- our future hinges on how we remem- land, the United States and in sev- were careful not to include disturb- discourse, by school curricula and by ten by Dink in 1996 that alludes to ber the past. That’s why it is crucial.” eral Balkan countries. They partici- ing images and pictures of physical media narratives. We have just begun his life-long struggle to conciliate Visitors from the central Anato- pated in workshops, seminars and violence in the exhibition. to learn what it means to actively and Turkey and Armenia, aims to con- lian city of Sivas, where an arson conferences, met with programme “We did not want to show the critically remember the past.” tinue his legacy and, by keeping his attack staged by a mob on July 2, directors and invited specialists to picture of Hrant Dink right after he She warned that forgetting can memory alive, to prevent hatred and 1993, led to the death of 35 people, Istanbul to ask for advice on how to was killed, covered by a sheet just never be a solution to conflict and bigotry. mostly Alevi intellectuals staying at transform the old Agos offices. outside this office,” Karakose said. societal rifts, saying: “As long as “In Turkey, we lack a culture of a hotel, said they would like to have “This place is the result of a joint “It would have been easy to make trauma is not being healed, it will remembrance,” said Sena Basoz, an a memorial site commemorating effort, of joint learning,” Karakose visitors cry but we asked ourselves remain in the collective conscious- artist and programme coordinator the massacre. “This shows that we said. “We also asked people here how a place like this could inspire ness and resurface at different mo- at the site, the first of its kind in the absolutely need places like these,” what they would like to see in a Hrant hope instead. We want to show how ments and under different forms of country. “One trauma immediately added Basoz. “We hope that we will Dink memory site and collected their a painful past and its victims can be- violence.” follows the next. Unfortunately, only be the first of many.” ideas.” come actors of change and transfor- There are many places in Turkey there is no culture of confronting the The idea for the Hrant Dink Me- Through hundreds of archived mation.” where trauma remains hidden and past and the things that have hap- morial site began in 2013. Agos was texts, audio and video recordings This is why the memory site does this, Karakose said, needs to change. pened. On the contrary, past events moving into new offices but Basoz collected over the years, it is Dink not want to accuse but enter into a “To remember is a form of resist- are being swept under the rug but it and Karakose said the old office himself who narrates the painful meaningful dialogue with its visi- ance. It’s a form of struggle and ac- simply doesn’t work that way.” should not be left vacant. “This history of the Armenian minority tors. The exhibition aims to provoke tivism. To remember is to heal. No It is for that reason that the open- place held symbolic meaning for us. in Turkey. Through Dink’s personal critical questions about the past, society can be healthy and whole ing of the Hrant Dink Memorial Site It has a memory and a history that experiences, his articles and record- about human rights in Turkey, about without it,” she said. is a reason for hope. “We want to needed to be preserved,” Basoz said. ings of television talk shows, inter- justice and about the possibility to create awareness and inspire visitors For more than five years, they views and university conferences, strive for a better future. Constanze Letsch is a contributor to open similar sites at other places,” travelled to dozens of memory sites the memory site tells visitors of dis- “We wanted to remind people of to The Arab Weekly in Istanbul. Viewpoint Turkey’s ‘softening’ of oppression may be illusory

while he was in Silivri Prison — the AKP. Now you are out and I am general amnesty and, if ever lives away” through prison, is done titled “I Will Never See the World here.” possible, a new constitution. This is in all the cases of sheer breach. In Again.” Altan is serving an aggra- When Yayman murmured what the opposition utters more other cases, such as the massive, Yavuz Baydar vated life-in-prison sentence after something like “But your case was frequently, as Erdogan and his chain of prosecutions of “peace being convicted of “crimes against decided by the judiciary,” Altan clique seek new ways to cling to academics” that more or less the state.” was as sharp as ever: “Come on, power. destroyed the academic freedom in t was one of those rare The commission members let’s not kid each other, we all know Meanwhile, Turkey’s heavily Turkey, the belated ruling of the moments when a small group almost missed him because he had who decides over us all.” politicised Constitutional Court is top court cannot hide the fact that of parliamentary deputies, a visitor but, by coincidence, on Hakverdi suggested Altan write a sending out signals in favour of hundreds of academicians are so members of the Human Rights their way out, they bumped into manifesto for democracy but Altan some human rights after a long deterred from what they did that Investigative Commission, each other. Altan, an extremely was still full of jokes. “You know time of paralysis. It ruled, for many of them will never dare visited the notorious Silivri strong-willed dissident, was in his that this is a reason for ending up example, that the reporting about engage in reform actions. IPrison outside Istanbul. usual joyous state of mind, despite here,” he laughed, adding: “Is there corruption pointing to Erdogan’s The so-called “judicial reform” The facility is notorious because having spent three years in prison. anything you need from out there, family five years ago was a “consti- package seems equally illusory, thousands of political prisoners “Hey, how come you are leaving just let me know!” tutional right.” signalling a stillborn baby. The — Kurds, intellectual dissidents, without seeing me? Come in, let me The episode, as tragicomic as it is, It overruled lower court decisions proposal is full of half measures, journalists, reformist liberals and offer you some coffee,” he joked. reveals the suffering and urgency on hundreds of academics accused shying from a comprehensive Gulenists — are kept for years They entered his 4-metre-long for Turkey’s never-ending ordeal — and some sentenced — to prison amnesty and amendments of behind its bars. cell. with a deeply crippled justice because they signed a petition for restrictive “police state” type of The deputies wanted to meet “How are you?” asked Huseyin system. As a result of Erdogan’s peace between the state and the laws. with Ahmet Altan, a former editor Yayman, chairman of the commis- ruthless, brutal campaign to crash Kurdistan Workers’ Party. As a It simply aims at “partially of the independent Taraf newspa- sion and who is also a deputy of the civil dissent and political opposi- result, the lower courts are busy pardoning” the prisoners, probably per and an internationally ruling Justice and Development tion, the past years saw nearly dropping the cases and issuing singling out Kurdish and Gulenist renowned author. Atlan was Party (AKP) led by Turkish Presi- 50,000 people sent to jails, qualify- acquittals in completed ones. inmates as continuing the sen- recently nominated for the Baillie dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan. ing as “political prisoners,” Human As parliament is to open in tences; ties the permissions to Gifford Prize for his book — written “Thanks to you, we all keep in Rights Watch said. October, Erdogan issued signals on unblock passports to the “mercy of good shape in here,” Altan laughed. More than 150,000 people, a “judicial reform package,” calling government” and says almost “Come and spend some time here. including many academicians, lost for the opposition to support it. nothing about granting back jobs You’ll love it, too! Don’t ever worry their jobs, were subjected to Because the pressure in Turkey is those affected. why your party locked so many criminal investigations, had their so constant, some opposition It seems Erdogan, keen on The general wisdom people up in here. It’s not as bad as passports held, which means they circles, while welcoming these brinksmanship for survival, stages at home and abroad you think,” he winked and live in a de facto open-air prison. moves, claim “the regime is a new series of manoeuvres to is that Turkey will laughed. Prominent politicians, such as softening.” It may be yet another dazzle the opposition and the The opposition deputy, Ali Selahattin Demirtas, and civil illusion, leading to a new disap- actors abroad who stand for only be able to Haydar Hakverdi, asked about his rights campaigners, such as pointment. appeasement in whatever he does. recover from the case. “These people are like the businessman Osman Kavala, and There are several reasons for This, perhaps, explains why ruthless criminal gangs in Mexico,” senior journalists such as Nazli utter caution. First of all, Turkey’s imprisoned heroes such as Altan or pitch-black state of Altan said. “They may not even Ilicak are among them. top court was far too late in Demirtas remain so much in things by a general abide by the top court rulings if it As the oppression remains delivering justice. When cases disbelief and irony. amnesty and, if ever disagrees with my prison sentence. consistent, the general wisdom at more than two or three years old Prison steals from your life but I home and abroad is that Turkey will are handled, it raises the suspicion Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish possible, a new reject this. Here, I write. Many of us only be able to recover from the of deliberate delay. journalist and regular columnist constitution. had, once upon a time, supported pitch-black state of things by a The damage, in terms of “stealing for The Arab Weekly. 18 September 22, 2019 Economy

Tunisia mulls introduction of green bonds Briefs

Riadh Bouazza Airways reports $639 million Tunis loss as boycott bites

unisian authorities are seek- Qatar Airways posted a net ing to revitalise the country’s loss for the year ending March bond market as an important 2019 of $639 million, which the T financing alternative by in- airline blamed on key markets troducing environmentally related closing their airspace to Doha. products into a market limited to The United Arab Emirates, trading in public treasury bonds. which was a key market for the Tunisian officials are discussing Gulf carrier, along with Saudi with the World Bank ways to intro- Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt have duce green bonds in the local market. enforced an economic boycott Despite its weak economy, Tunisia of Qatar since June 2017. appears determined to shift rapidly The year to March 2019 was to renewable energies by facilitating “a challenging year,” the airline financing for local companies to build said in a statement. solar- or wind-energy projects. The tiny Gulf emirate’s na- Some observers said it is too early tional airline reported a loss of to say whether this type of financing $69 million a year earlier. will be successful in Tunisia, given the general shape of the country’s (Agence France-Presse) struggling economy. Trading in green bonds has become a practical solution to environmental problems. It has brought together A hunt for practical solutions. Tunisia’s Central Bank Governor Marouane El Abassi (C) arrives at a investors, development experts, news conference in Tunis, last February. (Reuters) policymakers and scientists to meet a common goal and is an effective way Libya’s oil firm of collaborating, even if each party He pointed out that embarking on Tunisia needs to create a secondary the first production phase at the pursues different ends. this course requires reinforcing the market for treasury bonds.” Tozeur solar power plant in southern condemns attempt to The term “green bond” was in- capital market through a secondary Trading in green bonds in the Unit- Tunisia. That marked a qualitative divide Brega unit troduced during the 2008 global stock market specialising in environ- ed Arab Emirates, Morocco and Egypt shift in state policies that seek to ac- economic crisis as a label for bonds mental financing. is the biggest proof of the feasibility celerate clean energy production and Libya’s state-owned National linked to environmentally friendly Official data state that the Tunisian of what is becoming a global trend. allow a major reduction in energy Oil Corporation condemned investments. The World Bank is con- stock market capital does not exceed subsidies. what it said was an attempt to sidered the top and first global finan- 22% of the country’s GDP, compared Tunisia has initiated eco-friendly divide its Brega Petroleum Mar- cial institution to issue that type of to the 70% rate of the Casablanca Despite its weak economy, projects and called on investors to keting unit. financing and set a trend for innova- Stock Exchange in neighbouring Mo- Tunisia appears determined work with the government to ensure The National Oil Corporation tively financing eco-friendly projects. rocco. The Tunisian exchange has to shift rapidly to renewable their success. Official data state that said in a statement it was not It is estimated that, over the past done nothing to strengthen the local energies by facilitating alternative energy production in Tu- taking sides in the military con- decade, the World Bank has raised market other than listing some suc- financing for local nisia accounts for about 148 mega- flict, denying accusations that about $13 billion through nearly 150 cessful public sector companies. companies to build solar- or watts, 4% of the country’s energy it is not supplying eastern and green bonds in 20 currencies for in- Former Finance Minister Jaloul wind-energy projects. needs. central Libya adequately with vestors and mutual funds around the Ayed had criticised the Tunisian Tunisia aims to produce about 16 oil products. world. stock market for not having under- Tunisia’s government sought to gigawatts of alternative energy to Brega is an oil processing “The stock market is not techni- taken structural reforms to attract stimulate the alternative energy sec- meet an expected shortage in elec- centre in the eastern region of cally fully ready to trade green bonds, new investments. tor by adopting green financing al- tricity. The government has dedi- Libya. since these are new financial securi- Ayed said green bonds “need medi- ternatives to alleviate the pressure of cated $7 billion to alternative energy, ties that might not attract other seg- um- and long-term financing, which the cost of electricity production in allowing Tunisia to save about $13 bil- (Reuters) ments of market traders, besides requires the existence of a capital Tunisia. lion of the country’s total energy bill. green traders,” said economist Anis market, including a bond market. To Tunisia introduced a major solar Guesmi. be able to develop the bond market, energy programme in August with Riadh Bouazza is a Tunisian writer.

Siemens, Orascom Morocco anticipates more Chinese tourists to rebuild vast Iraq power plant Mohamed al-Alawi med VI, which resulted in exempt- ing Chinese visitors from entry vi- Iraq signed a $1.3 billion Rabat sas to Morocco. deal with German industrial Observers of Moroccan-Chinese conglomerate Siemens and hinese-Moroccan partner- relations said Rabat is betting on Egypt’s Orascom Construction ships received a boost in the Chinese tourism market because of to rebuild a major power plant tourism sector, which is of the size of the market, estimated at complex in the ravaged city of C vital strategic importance 150 million tourists annually. Baiji, north of Baghdad. in Morocco’s development policies. Liang said Morocco is an excel- The deal is part of a broader Adel El Fakir, director-general lent tourist destination, especially energy road map that Iraq of the Moroccan National Tourist after the decision to exempt Chi- signed with Siemens this year in Office, signed an agreement with nese from visa requirements. a bid to pump 11 gigawatts into Liang Jianzhang, chairman of the The two countries are seeking Iraq’s crippled power sector. China Digital Travel Agency (Ctrip), to intensify joint cultural events, The country generates to promote the Moroccan market in which would contribute to bringing around 15 gigawatts, far short of China. the populations closer and boost estimated demand of about 24 The 3-year agreement was widely tourism. gigawatts. welcomed because it offered op- During his meeting with Prime portunities to boost the flow of Chi- Minister Saad Eddine El Othmani, (Agence France-Presse) nese tourists to Morocco. China has Liang said China was moving to ac- become the largest market for tour- tivate existing cooperation agree- ists in the world with its expansion ments and explore new opportuni- of middle and upper classes. The ties for partnership. per capita income of Chinese citi- Othmani said Rabat was working zens has increased considerably as to consolidate relations with Bei- the country’s economy has become jing, especially in tourism, because UAE’s Brooge the second largest in the world. of Morocco’s strategic location. Petroleum awards Chinese tourists on average spend “The great tourism facilities avail- 25% more money than Europeans able in Morocco make the country deal to Spain’s SENER tourists in Morocco. Estimates stat- an important tourist destination ed that, on average, Chinese tourists and a major gateway to the African spend about $250 a day in Morocco continent thanks to its modern in- The United Arab Emirates’ compared to the average of $180 for frastructure,” he said. Brooge Petroleum and Gas Key sector. Chinese tourists at the esplanade of the Hassan II other nationalities. Tourism is one key sector in Mo- Investment Company said it had Mosque in Casablanca. (Reuters) Ctrip is China’s largest digital rocco’s economy and the govern- awarded a contract to Spain’s travel agency. It has 30,000 em- ment is seeking to make the coun- SENER engineering group to build ployees, a turnover of more than try among the top 20 destinations figure in the coming years based number of outbound tourists to 157 an oil refinery in Fujairah. $4 billion and 300 million custom- in the world by 2020. on initiatives and agreements with million by next year. The plant is planned to produce ers. Under the terms of the agree- Despite the absence of direct international airlines to facilitate The China Tourism Academy, a bunker fuel that complies with ment, Morocco is aiming to attract flights between Morocco and Chi- the entry of Chinese tourists to the research institution under the Min- new international laws capping 500,000 Chinese tourists by next na, the number of Chinese tour- country through Europe. istry of Culture and Tourism, es- sulphur content in shipping fuels. year. ists arriving in Morocco has grown Chinese statistics stated that Chi- timated that spending by Chinese Moroccan Tourism Minister Mo- sharply in recent years. Official fig- nese tourists spend more than $250 tourists abroad will total about (Reuters) hamed Sajid said the number of ures show there were 10,000 Chi- billion a year abroad. China’s out- $429 billion annually by 2021. Chinese visiting Morocco has in- nese visitors in Morocco in 2015 and bound tourism market is expected creased steadily since the visit to 132,000 in 2018. to grow an average of 5% annually Mohamed al-Alawi is a Moroccan Beijing by Morocco’s King Moham- Morocco aims to surpass that in the coming years, bringing the writer. September 22, 2019 19 Energy Gulf Oil takes centre stage in global geopolitics after attacks on Aramco installations

Sabahat Khan

Dubai

ttacks on the Abqaiq pro- cessing plant and Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia marked A the most dramatic week for oil price increases in almost 50 years. The attacks halved Saudi Arabia’s daily oil production and shut 5.7 mil- lion barrels per day — around 5% of global oil output. Oil trading witnessed the steepest price fluctuation in history for oil, skyrocketing almost 15% in response to the attacks before steadying. Despite the complex and danger- ous scenario of multiple burning fires in the biggest of their kind oil and gas facilities in the world, Saudi workers were able to douse the flames in less than seven hours. With assessments of the damage at Abqaiq and Khurais complete — de- scribed as considerably “less signifi- Vulnerable assets. Smoke is seen following cant” than initially feared — Saudi a fire at Aramco facility in the eastern city of Aramco quickly mobilised to begin Abqaiq, September 14. (Reuters) repair work, which is expected to last a few weeks rather than months as some had speculated. Despite the disruption to its pro- Attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure Viewpoint duction capacity, Saudi Arabia, keen introduce new risks into the global to keep supply of oil to the interna- supply chain so prices are bound to tional market unhindered, dipped rise and will almost certainly become into its reserve stockpiles to ensure more volatile. customers were able to continue High prices and price volatility in Targeting of Saudi oil facilities loading Saudi oil. oil trade are undesirable for the Unit- However, these unprecedented ed States but Washington today has a attacks are the latest in a series of larger buffer of protection than, say, highlights energy security risks developments to argue that oil has the economies of China, Japan and taken centre stage again in global India, which are heavily dependent geopolitics. on oil from the Middle East. In fact, Saudi oil output would fully recover The attacks on the Abqaiq process- Houthi rebels, after pledging al- with booming shale oil production by the end of September, when pro- ing facility and Khurais oil field legiance to Iranian Supreme Leader in the United States, higher oil prices duction capacity will total 11 million were strategic. The Saudi processing Ayatollah Khamenei, claimed re- could be a boon for the American bpd and that the capacity would plant is the world’s largest, taking sponsibility for the attacks but it is economy’s fastest-growing sectors. Jareer Elass rise to 12 million bpd by the end of in approximately two-thirds of the Iran that has been charged unequiv- The International Energy Agency November. kingdom’s oil production, specifi- ocally by the United States with re- said the United States had brief- he coordinated and He indicated that Saudi Aramco cally from the Ghawar, Shaybah and sponsibility for this “act of war,” in ly overtaken Saudi Arabia as the precise drone and would draw from its crude stocks to Khurais fields, and refining and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s world’s largest oil exporter at one missile attacks on two of ensure its commitments to custom- cleaning those supplies so that words. point in June. With Saudi produc- the most critical pieces ers are fully met. impurities such as sulphur and sand Dismissing the Houthi claims, tion temporarily knocked back, the of oil infrastructure in Saudi Aramco Chairman Yasir al- are extracted. Washington maintained that the di- United States may well regain the top Saudi Arabia, which Rumayyan sought to ease investors’ The Khurais oil field is the Gulf rection of attack was possibly from spot again. Timmediately halved the kingdom’s fears amid rumours that the sale of country’s second largest, with a pro- Iraq, where Iran’s Islamic Revolu- It is in this backdrop that the crude production and knocked out up to 5% of Saudi Aramco may be duction capacity of 1.5 million bpd. tionary Guard Corps is entrenched Trump administration suggested its 5% of global oil supplies, raise a postponed because of the attacks. The exposure of the Abqaiq with Iran-allied Shia militias, but willingness to release oil to the in- large question about Riyadh’s Rumayyan said: “The IPO is a com- facility to sabotage or attack has more likely from southern Iran itself. ternational market from its strategic long-standing confidance in being mitment by the shareholder, the long been a concern not only of The wreckage of more than two petroleum reserve if necessary. the world’s most reliable crude government of Saudi Arabia, and we successive Saudi governments but dozen cruise missiles and unmanned The redrawing of the global energy supplier. think the IPO will continue as is. We US administrations as well. After aerial vehicles used in the attacks markets as a result of shale oil is sig- The September 14 attacks on Saudi are not going to stop anything.” the September 14 bombings, Bob shown by Riyadh appear to originate nificant. The United States is not only Aramco’s oil processing facility at Oil markets had built in a geopoliti- McNally, a former adviser to US from Iran, analysts said. taking a larger global market share Abqaiq and the nearby Khurais oil cal price premium based on escalat- President George W. Bush, tweeted: While many details of the attack and billions of dollars in revenue field upended oil markets — with ing tensions between Saudi Arabia “Especially after 9-11, few things have not been released to the public, from it but also becoming gradually crude prices spiking nearly 15% — and Iran as well as the ongoing preoccupied me more while serving Tehran, which denies involvement less dependent on oil from the Mid- and added a new risk element for brinkmanship between Washington on the White House National Secu- in the attack, is thought to be behind dle East, a region hitherto seen as vi- investors to consider as they weigh and Tehran. rity Council than the security [of] the incident indirectly through its tal to American economic interests. participation in the much-antici- Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Abqaiq, the most important facility proxies. This is a trend that could accelerate pated Saudi Aramco initial public Yemen claimed responsibility for an on the planet few had heard of.” Crippling US sanctions against if the rise in international oil prices offering (IPO). attack on a Saudi Aramco pipeline In February 2006, Saudi security Iran’s oil trade, which used to rep- sustains because shale drillers in the Reassurances from the new Saudi in May and that same month Tehran forces thwarted an al-Qaeda suicide resent some 80% of its total exports United States could increase output oil minister and Saudi Aramco chair- was believed to have been behind car bomb attack at the gates of the and around 40% of government for exports 10-15% next year. man at a news conference September the bombings of four oil tankers, two Abqaiq processing plant, the news of revenue, have brought its economy On the other hand, China, already 17 that Saudi oil production would be of which were Saudi-owned. which caused oil prices to jump $2 a to a standstill. Iran, traditionally in the midst of a trade war with the fully restored by the end of Septem- There is, however, new volatility in barrel. one of the world’s largest oil export- United States and with slowing eco- ber and that the IPO has not been de- the oil markets adding a higher price The Abqaiq and Khurais strikes ex- ers, could be losing $3 billion in oil nomic growth, lies far more exposed railed prompted oil prices to retreat premium: the Abqaiq and Khurais pose a serious flaw in the kingdom’s revenues every month because of to energy supply risks from the Mid- 6% from their highs the day before. attacks revealed the surprising ability to protect its most important destabilising regional activities that dle East. One-fifth of China’s oil The hit on the Saudi Aramco vulnerability of essential Saudi oil energy infrastructure, made all the Washington is prepared to tolerate imports are from Saudi Arabia and facilities, however, dramatically infrastructure and there are concerns more surprising given the enormous no longer. reports say it recently committed highlights the vulnerability of Saudi that the strikes could provoke US amount of money Riyadh directs Iran has promised a response to hundreds of billions of dollars over energy security and therefore global retaliatory action against Tehran towards defence — particularly its US pressure and the last few months the next two decades to modernise energy security. The psychological that could lead to a wider military air defence systems. The Stock- have seen merchant shipping — es- Iranian infrastructure, including its aspect of that knowledge is likely to conflict. holm International Peace Research pecially oil tankers — being harassed, oil and gas industries. affect oil markets and the investment Riyadh and Washington are gath- Institute reported that Saudi Arabia seized and even attacked with limpet It is estimated that, for each dollar community long after the lost Saudi ering evidence, seeking to prove that ranked first in military spending as a mines around the Arab Gulf. increase in the price of a barrel, the crude production recovers. dozens of drones and missiles were percentage of GDP in 2018. Even in the scenario that Iranian cost to China rises more than $1 bil- Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz launched into the kingdom from That high degree of spending was proxies, rather than Iran, were be- lion. bin Salman bin Abdulaziz and Saudi Iranian territory near Iran’s southern not lost on Gary Grappo, a former hind the attacks, they appear to be China could well be realising the Aramco on September 15 said the border with Iraq, despite Houthi re- US ambassador to , who, in a linked to the fact that Saudi Arabia need to assume a more proactive role attacks had cut Saudi oil production bels’ quick claim to have conducted CNBC interview September 17, said: and OPEC have been playing an in- in the region but, for now, it will be by approximately half to around 5.7 the attacks from Yemen. “I think the Saudi leadership has a strumental role in keeping oil prices exploring its options and any lever- million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi The price for US benchmark crude great deal of explaining to do that stable and covering shortfalls could age it has to ensure restraint from the oil output comprises 10% of global West Texas Intermediate experi- a country that ranks third in terms have been caused by the US-Iran Saudis as Riyadh and its allies look to crude supplies and the kingdom is enced its largest daily jump in ten of total defence spending… was not sanctions and standoff. build a collective response to the at- the world’s largest oil exporter. years on September 16, settling at able to defend… its most critical oil US President Donald Trump has tacks. Prince Abdulaziz, appointed oil $62.90 a barrel, up 14.7% for the day. facility from these kinds of attacks.” attached importance to and repeat- minister on September 8, stated at UK benchmark crude Brent recorded edly called for lower oil prices since Sabahat Khan, based in Dubai, the news conference that 50% of the its largest daily percentage gain ever Jareer Elass reports from Washing- he took office as he aims to take the maintains a cross-disciplinary focus knocked out production had been the same day, with its price up 14.6% ton on energy issues for The Arab US economy out of its dragging slow- in international security, defence restored within two days and that to $69.02 a barrel. Weekly. growth mode. policy and strategic issues. 20 September 22, 2019 News & Analysis Media Cash-strapped Future TV suspends operations after 26 years on air

The Arab Weekly staff The decision highlights the wors- ening financial crisis in which Hariri has been trapped since the disso- Beirut lution of Saudi-Oger, his father’s construction and services company ebanese Prime Minister Saad in Saudi Arabia. The company had Hariri announced the sus- been the pillar of the Hariri family pension of work at his Future fortune. L TV satellite television chan- Lebanese experts said the Hariri nel after 26 years of broadcasting, establishment has entered a post- citing financial reasons for halting affluence stage. It was Rafik Hariri’s operations. financial prosperity that allowed Al-Mustaqbal newspaper, also him to launch his political project in owned by the Hariri family, closed its the 1990s. print operations in January for simi- They pointed out that Hariri’s lar reasons, thus threatening the sur- financial woes were affecting his vival of Hariri’s Future Movement as political base and close circles and a political project while Hezbollah’s that the closure of some of Hariri’s media empire remained very active business ventures, especially in the despite the militant group’s own fi- media and including those affiliated nancial woes. with the Future Movement, indi- In a statement issued September cates that financial backing from 18 by his media office, Hariri said: Saudi Arabia had stopped and that “It is with a heavy heart that I an- there had been a change in the rela- nounce today the decision to sus- tionship between Riyadh and Saad pend work at Future TV and settle Hariri. workers’ wages for the same finan- Sources said Hariri was paying the cial reasons that led to the closing of price of financial mismanagement Al-Mustaqbal newspaper.” within his business institutions as well as for political positions he has The decision highlights the taken that were not consistent with Saudi orientations. worsening financial crisis in Rafik Hariri founded Future TV in End of the journey. A 2008 file picture shows a cameraman filming the anchor of Future TV station at which Hariri has been 1993 as he was building tools for po- a new studio in Sin al-Fil, east of Beirut. (AFP) trapped since the litical influence. dissolution of Saudi-Oger, The station broadcast entertain- his father’s construction ment, cultural and political pro- as a news website. The statement did not specify The media sector in Lebanon is ex- and services company in grammes while launching the ca- Hariri vowed to “follow up on the what the new phase would be but lo- periencing a prolonged crisis, mainly Saudi Arabia. reers of several media stars. dues owed to” workers at the TV sta- cal media reports stated that an Arab because of the cessation of internal The station’s employees have tion and the newspaper. He said “the businessman close to Hariri intend- and Arab political funding of the me- “The decision was not an easy one been on strike since the end of July station is not taking the decision to ed to buy a stake in the television dia, in addition to the emergence of for me or for the men and women of because they had not received their stop work to become part of the past. channel and relaunch it. electronic media and declining ad- the Future Movement nor is it for the wages. Since then, the channel has Rather, it is announcing the end of a Future TV Director-General Ramzi vertising revenues. generation of the founding person- been broadcasting old programmes. stage in its journey, to be able to ad- Jebili told Agence France-Presse of Several institutions laid off work- nel and the millions of Lebanese and Many employees had suffered years dress the accumulated financial bur- a “restructuring” operation at the ers and many well-established Arab viewers of Future TV who had of delays and piecemeal payments of dens and prepare for a new phase, channel and of “a temporary phase newspapers ceased publication, no- stayed loyal to the station for more wages. looking forward to returning to work during which the payments of the tably As-Safir newspaper at the end than a quarter of a century,” Hariri Al-Mustaqbal published its last in the coming months, in a new style channel’s debts will be rescheduled” of 2016 because of financial difficul- added. print copy in January but continued in line with the resources available.” in preparation for relaunching it. ties after 42 years in operation. Moroccan journalist’s trial for illegal abortion sparks heated debate about individual rights

Saad Guerraoui that are a threshold of violating the A question privacy of individuals and restrict- of rights. A ing their freedoms. man holds a Casablanca The penal code sanctions extra- banner at a marital sex and abortion (Articles demonstration he trial of journalist Hajar 490 and 491) unless the life of the outside a court Raissouni for “illegal abor- mother is in danger. Article 483 in solidarity tion” and “extramarital punishes “public indecency” with with detained T sex” has divided Moroccans sentences from one month to two journalist about individual liberty amid calls years in prison. Hajar for changing the penal code that After being adopted by the gov- Raissouni, bars sex before marriage and abor- ernment following King Moham- in Rabat, tion. med VI’s intervention, the law le- September 9. Raissouni, 28, who writes for the galising abortion in cases of rape, (AP) Arabic-language newspaper Akhbar incest or malformations and incur- al-Yaoum, is being tried on charges able diseases of the foetus is ex- of having an illegal abortion and pected to be tabled in parliament sexual relations outside marriage. for a vote in October. The newspaper’s owner, Taoufik “The same traditional division Bouachrine, was sentenced last No- went on between a current de- vember to 12 years in prison after manding the abolition of these being convicted of rape and other laws for violating rights and free- offences. doms and a current that refuses to Raissouni has been detained approach these laws because they since August 31 after she left a clinic deeply stem from an Islamic refer- in Rabat. Her Sudanese partner ence and a current that believes and doctor are also in custody. She that the selectivity in the use of could be sentenced to two years in these laws is improper but does not prison if found guilty. want to risk to the point of calling adults for having a romantic or sex- to legalise it that you have your our institution nor our religion and Raissouni’s lawyer denied she for its annulment,” Mae El Ainine ual relationship. own religion and we have ours,” the country’s history.” had an abortion, saying she was wrote on Facebook. “It does not matter whether Ha- Fazazi said. “Our country has insti- “These so-called liberals call for treated for internal bleeding but a Mae El Ainine was subject to jar Raissouni has aborted or not, tutions that enact religious edicts, legalising abortion and killing the blood test indicated a high level of huge criticism at the beginning of the bottom line is that she is being such as the Higher Council of Ul- baby inside the mother’s womb the hormone Beta HCG, which indi- this year about her private life fol- pursued for a reason that we should ema headed by the king, and laws while they call for the death pen- cated a pregnancy. lowing publication of photos show- be ashamed of seeing it included in on abortion and sex outside mar- alty to be dropped. Does this make Her detention divided Moroc- ing her unveiled in Paris. the legal arsenal,” she said. riage.” sense?” he asked. cans, sparking debate on individual She called for the opening of a di- Preacher Mohamed Al Fazazi in- Mae El Ainine said many laws “It is shameful that the Muslim freedoms. alogue within the PJD on the issue sisted that a sexual relationship by need to be changed, arguing that nation debates what is halal and Deputy Amina Mae El Ainine, of individual freedoms. mutual consent outside marriage the protection of collective free- haram that is already mentioned in from the Islamist ruling Justice and Moroccan sociologist Sanaa El Aji equals adultery, which he said “is a doms goes through the need to pro- our holy book,” he said. Development Party (PJD), said Rais- denounced the “laws of the Middle crime” punishable by law. tect individual freedoms despite souni’s case was an opportunity to Ages” in an article on the Huffing- “We have the Holy Quran to refer Islamists’ sensitivity to the issue. Saad Guerraoui is a contributor intensify public debate on several ton Post Maghreb. Aji said that only to when it comes to banning extra- Fazazi said those who call for to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb criminal law provisions in Morocco a “backward state” can imprison marital sex. We tell those who want dropping such laws “do not respect issues. September 22, 2019 21 Society Women Banned from stadiums, Iran’s female football fans watch from a distance hoping FIFA can help

The Arab Weekly staff

London

IFA President Gianni Infanti- no told Iran it is time to allow women into football stadiums F and that FIFA expects “posi- tive developments,” starting with Iran’s home match in October. While foreign women have been allowed limited access to matches, Iranian women have been banned from stadiums where men’s teams have been playing since the 1979 Is- lamic revolution. Infantino said in a FIFA statement that he was hopeful that the Iranian football federation and government authorities had been receptive to “our repeated calls to address this unacceptable situation.” “Our position is clear and firm. Women have to be allowed into football stadiums in Iran. Now is the moment to change things and FIFA is expecting positive developments starting in the next Iran home match in October,” he said. Iran, which has qualified for five World Cup finals, including each of the last two, hosts Cambodia Octo- ber 10 in its first home game of the 2022 qualifying competition. The match will test Iran’s commitment to improving access for women in sporting events amid a growing pro- test movement at home and abroad, analysts said. Iranian authorities faced backlash after a female fan died after setting herself on fire to protest against her An Iranian woman watches a football game with her friend at a cafe in Tehran. (Reuters) arrest for attending a match. Sahar Waiting for change. Khodayari, dubbed “Blue Girl” for the colours of her favourite team able by suspension or expulsion. backtracked and denied females against Syria in June, women were cial problems.” Esteghlal, died after her self-im- Amnesty International said, “Iran access to games. At Iran’s friendly locked out of the Azadi Stadium and Responding to growing interna- molation outside a court where she is the only country in the world that detained by security forces. tional backlash to their discrimina- feared she would be sentenced to six stops and punishes women” seeking Iran’s young female football fans tory policy, authorities promised to months in prison for having attended to enter football stadiums. While foreign women have instead crammed Tehran’s shopping gradually shift their policies, allow- the match disguised as a man. There were signs the situation centres and cafes to watch the match. ing women to enter stadiums and Khodayari’s death sparked out- regarding female fans in Iran was been allowed limited Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem instructed the sports minister to im- rage, prompting calls on social media changing when women were per- access to matches, Iranian Shirazi has maintained that “the situ- prove “the moral atmosphere” prior for Iran’s football federation to be mitted to attend the second leg of women have been banned ation in the stadiums is not suitable to the admission of female football suspended or banned by FIFA. Crit- the Asian Champions League final from stadiums where for women and there is no doubt that fans. ics said FIFA statutes hold discrimi- in Tehran last November, a match men’s teams have been the youth’s mingling and freedom nation on grounds of gender punish- Infantino attended, but authorities playing since 1979. are the source of many moral and so- (With Reuters) Saudi women No one should force me to wear “something I don’t scrap traditional want.” Manahel al-Otaibi, a abaya in bold bid 25-year-old Saudi activist for more freedom

The Arab Weekly staff mall in Riyadh clad in an orange top and baggy trousers. Shoppers looked on with amazement as she London walked by, she said. Some asked if she was a model. n a daring sign of rebellion, Sau- Not all took kindly to Jaloud’s de- di women activists ditched their fiant display, with one fully veiled body-shrouding abayas in Ri- shopper threatening to report her to I yadh, saying they want to “live the police. freely and without restrictions.” Another young Saudi woman, The billowy over-garment, usu- Manahel al-Otaibi, a 25-year-old A cry for freedom. Saudi human resources professional Mashael ally black, is customary public dress activist, was spotted wearing den- al-Jaloud, 33, walks past women wearing niqab at a commercial for women in Saudi Arabia, where im overalls in Riyadh’s al Tahliya area in Riyadh. (AFP) not wearing it can invite harass- street. ment or even legal trouble. Otaibi said she has been living in Disillusioned with the repressive Riyadh without an abaya for four ant approach to women’s dress, say- travel with greater independence — social norms, more women have months because she wants to “live ing they should not be compelled to boundaries remain largely untested taken to defying traditional the way I want, freely and without wear abayas because they are not in the ultra-conservative society. dress codes, hoping to pave the restrictions.” mandatory in Islam. Liberal Saudi women such as way for greater freedoms in the “No one should force me to wear Despite Crown Prince Moham- Jaloud and Otaibi say little has fast-changing society. something I don’t want,” she said. med’s statements — accompanied changed in their day-to-day lives Among them is Mashael al-Jal- In March 2018, Saudi Crown by a sweeping liberalisation drive in and they hope for greater freedom oud, a 33-year-old human resources Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin line with Vision 2030 that has seen to dress as they like in public with- specialist who recently visited a Abdulaziz suggested a more toler- women gain the right to drive and out scrutiny or backlash. 22 September 22, 2019 Culture Theatre Play about the Holocaust raises questions about changing mindsets in Egypt

Ahmed Megahid “I believe it is a wonderful and convincing work,” said another. The play speaks volumes about the Cairo change in perceptions of Israel and Jewish history among younger Egyp- hile praised by critics, tians. a new play being per- Egypt and Israel recently marked formed in Egypt’s capi- 40 years of peace after decades of tal to portray the hor- hostility between the two countries. Wrors of the Holocaust has become a However, the peace has mainly been political and cultural lightening rod, a government-to-government thing. considered “convincing” by some At the individual level, it has been and “dangerous” by others. nothing but frosty. “Sobibor,” written and performed Most Egyptians are strongly fo- by students from Ain Shams Univer- cused on Israel’s occupation of the sity in Cairo, puts the suffering Jews Palestinian territories and negative sustained in German concentration role in Arab politics. camps before and during World War “Sobibor,” however, is apparently a II under the spotlight. reflection of the change taking place It focuses on the treatment of Jews among young Egyptians. by Nazi Germany in Sobibor exter- Play director Mohamed Zaki said mination camp in Poland. Actors in the show focuses on the extermina- the play masterfully depict the brutal tion of the Jews as a human issue. treatment of Jews by Nazi officers in “It also connects the extermina- the camp. tion of the Jews at the hands of the Nazis with what the Zionists do in The play speaks volumes Palestine today,” Zaki said. “It shows that the Zionists commit the same about the change in crimes against the Palestinians but perceptions of Israel and also underscores the high value of Jewish history among humanity, regardless of any religious younger Egyptians. or national affiliations.” Perhaps this last point was why The play raised philosophical Zaki and the others involved with the questions about who might be in play were criticised by ordinary peo- control, why Jews should be singled ple and political observers who said out for the terrifying experience at the work could lead to an undesir- Thorny issue. A scene from the Egyptian play “Sobibor.” (Ahmed Megahid) Nazi extermination camps and the able change of heart towards Israel. brutality of man to his fellow. “There is a change of mind among This was probably why Israel was youth on Israel, which is a very dan- media and by ordinary people. at the security level. The two coun- gratified by the play. gerous thing,” said Tarek Fahmi, a A political science professor at Cai- tries coordinate policies and military “The moral of the play is that we political science professor at Cairo ro University had to plead innocence strategy against a branch of the Is- are all human,” Lior Ben Dor, direc- University. “The play is not a work of several times on his Twitter account “Sobibor” lamic State in Sinai and in the Gaza tor of the Egypt and the Maghreb art at all but a political work that has a few months ago after photos of a Strip. Department at the Israeli Ministry of its own objectives.” similar-looking person attending a raised philosophical “Sobibor” has won many awards Foreign Affairs, said in a video post- He faulted the creators of the play reception at the Israeli Embassy in questions about who and will represent Egypt at the Inter- ed on the ministry’s Facebook page. in promoting what he described as Cairo were shared on social media. national Festival of University Thea- “Our knowledge of the life of others “Israeli myths.” Egypt’s professional unions either might be in control, tre in Tangier, Morocco, this year. makes us realise the common things There is a high degree of scepti- impeach or sack members who have why Jews should be “It is a wonderful work of art,” that bind us together.” cism in Egypt about the Holocaust, either met Israelis or visited Israel. said theatre critic Mohamed al-Rubi. Many comments on the video by especially regarding the number of In March 2016, a lawmaker had his singled out for the “Works of art should not be judged Egyptians echoed the same point of Jewish victims. The scepticism is parliament membership revoked be- terrifying experience by whether we approve of their mes- view. coupled with anger at Israeli policies cause he received the Israeli ambas- at Nazi extermination sage or not.” “This is a successful play,” said one in the Palestinian territories and the sador in Cairo at his home. of the people commenting on the region. Locals calling for normalising Egypt officially maintains close camps and the brutality Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian video. “We are all human.” relations with Israel are reviled in the cooperation with Israel, especially of man to his fellow. reporter in Cairo. Kuwaiti playwright sees Gulf theatre needing greater freedom

Mohamad al-Hamamsi represent Kuwait in international undermining its freedoms and its Audiences have not abandoned theatre events. work and despite the attention the theatre but have increased at- Many theatrical troupes seek given by some rulers and officials tendance and interaction. The best Cairo quality in their work despite lim- interested in theatre, there are still proof of that would be the number ited resources so they can earn the many governments fighting theatre and diversity of the performances bdullah al-Aber is a thea- attention of specialised juries that through their institutions, either as given, plus the many theatre festi- tre and television director, select the winning plays or shows, We need more the result of ignorance or the result vals and workshops each year. actor, playwright, teacher which reflects a desire to preserve freedom in our Gulf of fearing the enlightening power and critic. He heads the the theatre industry in Kuwait. “ of theatre,” he said. A theatres and to let self- Aber pointed out that, Directing and Acting Department Aber said the most prominent “We need more freedom in our at the Higher Institute of Dramatic features of the Kuwaiti theatre are censorship take up Gulf theatres and to let self-censor- since its inception, Arts in Kuwait and has an active strong actors and directors, good more space.” ship take up more space,” he said. Kuwaiti theatre has been and distinguished presence in scriptwriters and playwrights and “This does not mean leaving things present at Arab and Gulf many local, Gulf and international the existence of many profession- Kuwaiti theatre and completely unchecked but what is cultural events and this theatre festivals. als in management and produc- television director Abdullah needed is more flexibility in laws has led to its Aber said we live in a globalised tion. al-Aber and more theatres. development and world that has produced an in- He stressed the importance of “Most of the existing theatres prosperity. tertwined reality full of political the theatre festivals in the Gulf and in the Gulf countries do not meet inventions and artificial religious Arab countries. the needs of theatre professionals The main role in the sector, how- differences. Considering the rapid “I think that it is very important in terms of their number or equip- ever, belongs to the theatre pro- technological development and to have these festivals, whether ment. There is a need for more fessionals. They are the ones who the expansion and widening influ- at the local level or at the level of theatres built according to specifi- must decide on who the audience ence of social media, it is difficult the Gulf and Arab countries com- cations and conditions to suit the is and on how and when to inter- to analyse reality and foresee fu- bined,” he said. “The Gulf festivals theatrical presentations, ideas and act with those in attendance. Then ture trends, he said. have created their own features vision put forward by show mak- they must develop and renew their There is also the desire of some and specificities that are reflected ers. ideas and visions. Arab authorities to keep theatre in most of the plays performed. “There exists already an excellent Neither wars nor terrorism nor away from the public as part of ef- “Every Gulf festival brings great human potential but the theatre conflicts have stopped the thea- forts to restrict freedom of opin- local performances that are distin- technologies and their use are still tre. On the contrary, they have ion through laws that limit theatre guished either by the dialect used not available to many. Even if some motivated it to expand and given work in their countries, he said. or the heritage shown or by states have built several top-quali- it more issues to address and en- Aber pointed out that, since its addressing social and po- ty theatres, these spaces remain gage in a dialogue with society on inception, Kuwaiti theatre has litical conditions that are unavailable except for specif- them, while creating an aesthetic been present at Arab and Gulf cul- common to all the par- ic occasions or events.” and artistic awareness and taste. tural events and this has led to its ticipating countries.” Aber insisted that thea- The theatre provides audiences development and prosperity. “Most of the time, tre in Gulf and Arab coun- with opportunities to refine their This is reflected locally as offi- when the state stops tries is in excellent con- tastes, become educated and take a cials in charge of theatre in Kuwait supporting the the- dition and continues to breather from the pressure of wars created an atmosphere of competi- atre financially, progress and improve and conflicts. tion and search for quality in the- the sector suffers because of the oppor- atrical works by instituting tough greatly and that tunities for sharing ex- Mohamad al-Hamamsi is an criteria for the selection of those to contributes to periences. Egyptian writer. September 22, 2019 23 Culture Heritage

Intricate designs. Ceramic kitchen utensils on display. (Carthage Days for Ceramic Art) Berber pottery on display at Tunisia’s

Unique talents. People attend a competition between pottery first ceramics fest artisans. (Carthage Days for Ceramic Art)

Roua Khlifi To celebrate the historical and art to include as many artisans as gether to promote a more modern cultural value of ceramic art, the possible. It was first conceived dur- style of ceramics. One competition National Centre of Ceramic Art ing the eighth international tasked designers with collaborat- Tunis of Sidi Kacem Jelizi and Tunis’s conference of ceramic art in ing with artisans to produce a new Ministry of Cultural Affairs organ- August 2018.” vision. olourful pottery, vases ised the event. The festival, which “This festival was bigger “Over the long term, we seek to adorned with intricate or- ended September 8, also marked than just an exhibition of ce- establish a partnership between naments, Berber art and the reopening of the Museum of ramic art. It was a meeting these artisans and designers and C clay masks filled the main Ceramic Art. platform for artisans from Ita- young artisans,” Amamou hall of Tunis’s City of Culture for “This is the first of its kind,” said ly, Spain and Egypt. It featured said. “Ten designers are work- the first Carthage Days for Ceramic festival Director Mohamed Hachi- work from regions like Nabeul, ing with ten artisans on new Art. Ceramic art is one of Tunisia’s cha. “The committee worked on de- Djerba, Makthar, Sejnane and products. This alone was an oldest artistic traditions and is vising a programme that accommo- elsewhere, showcasing each re- amazing addition. We need practised today. dates all different types of ceramic gion’s heritage and unique aspects to bridge the gap between as well as serving as competition graduates of schools and arti- for artisans.” sans to create more job oppor- The festival took place in vari- tunities.” ous venues across Tunis, including The festival featured competi- the City of Culture and the Bardo tions for artisans as well as a mu- National Museum. Training ses- sic programme with instruments sions and workshops also were made from clay. One of the high- organised, inviting artisans lights was a fashion show featur- and participants to learn from ing pieces made of pottery. techniques of each country rep- “Pottery in Tunisia is still used resented. daily in families,” said Hachicha. “It is one of the first arts to be de- veloped as Carthage was the The festival featured source of clay in ancient competitions for times in addition to Djer- artisans as well as a ba, which had a pivotal music programme role in pottery.” with instruments The festival hosted a confer- made from clay. ence featuring academics from different countries who shared their views on the history of ce- Hosting 60 participants from ramic art. more than 20 countries, the festi- Daouda Sow, director of research val shed light on the cultural and international cooperation at and economic aspects of the the Agency for Heritage Revival ceramic industry. and Cultural Development, con- Salah Amamou, president gratulated the festival’s organisers of the National Chamber for for their efforts. Artisan Arts who helped or- “We hope that this festival and ganise the festival, said the also the synergy of this coopera- event was an important way tion will help shed light on the her- to promote ceramic art. itage and promote ceramic art of “For me, exchanging ex- Tunisia,” Sow said. “It will be great pertise is important,” said to have it in museums, in shops Amamou. “This edition gives and in markets to showcase the value to Berber pottery, which does beauty and spirit of Tunisian pot- not get enough exposure. Berber tery art.” pottery exists in all 24 governorates Algerian artisan Mokran but only a few are popular. We chose Sayes said he has been work- the theme of one competition to be ing in ceramics for genera- the Kallaline period, which aims to tions as part of his family shed light on a specific heritage of a business. historic period of our country.” “This is an amazing oppor- “One of our goals is to introduce tunity and it is a successful chapters of the history of ceramic edition of the festival,” he art and of our country. This will said. “We met many artisans help bring more exposure to arti- and had interesting talks.” san products, which will help the country’s economy,” he said. Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel More than just a festival. Artworks on display at the main hall of The festival was also designed and Culture contributor to Tunis’s City of Culture. (Carthage Days for Ceramic Art) to bring different generations to- The Arab Weekly. 24 September 22, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

El Gouna: Through September 27

El Gouna, on the Egyptian Red Sea coast, is hosting the third El Gouna Film Festival. A diverse selection of films is scheduled, including docu- mentary, narrative and short film competitions in addition to the Audience Award.

Dubai: Through September 28

Directed by Asif Kapadia and produced by an Academy Award- and BAFTA-winning team, “Diego Maradona” is an extensive look at the football player’s career. The movie to be shown at Cinema Akil, Alserkal Avenue’s independent film theatre.

Amman: September 26-October 5

The Amman International Book Fair welcomes more than 500 printing houses from various countries. The 19th edition of An amusement park near Erbil. (Oumayma Omar) the fair will take place at You- nis Islam Street.

Beirut: Erbil: Iraqis’ October 2-10 Beirut will celebrate cinema with the 19th Beirut Interna- tional Film Festival. It includes competitions in Long Features, favourite holiday Short Films and Documentaries in addition to Lebanon pre- mieres of films.

Tunis: destination October 4-13

Dream City, a biennial mul- Oumayma Omar Iraq’s summer heat, which can top tidisciplinary celebration of 50 degrees Celsius, especially in Bagh- contemporary art, takes place dad and southern Iraq, also encour- in public spaces in the Medina Baghdad ages people to travel north to cooler of Tunis. The event includes areas and family-friendly tourist des- movie projections, theatre per- very summer Iman Mohamad tinations in the semi-autonomous re- formances, music concerts and and her family escape Bagh- gion. art exhibitions. Artists from dad’s scorching summer heat The main attraction in Erbil is its an- Africa, the Middle East and E to Kurdistan where nature, cient citadel and old bazaar that over- Europe will participate. history, entertainment facilities and look the city. The fort is claimed to be relative security have attracted visi- the oldest continuously inhabited set- Essaouira: tors from across Iraq. tlement in the world. The citadel was October 11-13 “This year we are going with a group granted World Heritage Site status in of friends of my daughters to celebrate 2014. The mound on which it sits has The third MOGA Festival of their success in class. They deserve evidence from Assyrian and Sumerian electronic music and culture a good break before they return to times and the structure is believed to will take place in Essaouira, school,” Mohamad said. “Prices of contain the Temple of Ishtar, deep be- Morocco. Performances, edu- packages to Kurdistan are very rea- low the ground. cational workshops, beach par- sonable and accessible to middle-class Sheikh Chooli Minaret, built in the ties, digital video installations families who cannot afford travelling 12th century during the rule of Sultan are scheduled. outside Iraq.” Mudhaffar al-Din, is the second most Kurdistan’s capital city, Erbil, and famous historical landmark in the city Tunis: its surroundings are favourite destina- with its octagonal base and cylindrical October 26-November 2 tions for many Iraqis. brick minaret “The resorts, restaurants and tour- The traditional souk of Qaysari Ba- The Carthage Film Festival is ist facilities are very much affordable zaar next to the citadel offers an array an annual event that show- and we feel more secure in Kurdistan of goods from antiquities, souvenirs cases films from the Maghreb, unlike other areas in Iraq. It is very hot and household and food items at com- Africa and the Middle East. in Baghdad and work makes you feel petitive prices. even more tired and exhausted. So, Thousands of Iraqi families head to A mountain resort near Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan. (Oumayma Omar) Beirut: such beautiful nature and waterfalls Kurdistan in the summer and during November 10 help you relax,” Mohamad said. major Islamic holidays, travel agent Despite being surrounded by war Mohamad Samer said. Samer whose company, Arab Hospi- tating resorts and creating new ones The 17th Beirut International and instability, Erbil is a popular tour- “Most Iraqis cannot afford to travel tality for Travel and Tourism, operates to accommodate a bigger number of Marathon features elite runners ist destination for many people from abroad to countries like Turkey, Leba- eight weekly bus trips to Kurdistan (an tourists,” Rosti said. from many countries zigzag- Iraqi provinces and other cities in the non or Egypt. It is way too expensive average of 400 travellers), said: “In- He noted that the region has some ging through the city on a route Middle East because of its safety and especially for large families,” Samer ternal tourism has picked up consid- 200 touristic areas, 625 hotels, 90 that passes historic monu- religious tolerance. It is a diverse re- said, adding that a package of four erably in the past couple of years, es- tourist villages and 360 motels. ments and medieval buildings. gion where different ethnicities and nights in Kurdistan including hotel pecially after the defeat of the Islamic “Revenues from the tourism sec- faiths coexist without fear of persecu- and transport costs $80 per person State in nearby Mosul.” tor are augmenting with the grow- Bidiyah: tion or discrimination. compared to $600 outside Iraq. In addition to history, Kurdistan has ing number of visitors. It is a positive November 15-22 an abundance of green mountains, step that will allow us to invest these lakes and waterfalls that contrast with funds in developing the sector which The Oman Desert Marathon is the mostly arid nature of the rest of suffered total stagnation during Daesh an amazing footrace across the Iraq. Mountain resorts like Jundiyan rule,” he said using the Arabic acro- Omani desert covering 165km and Shaqlawa and Lake Dukan are nym for the Islamic State. in six stages. From the Oasis among the most popular destinations Camiran Jameel, the owner of a ho- of Bidiyah to the Arabian Sea, in the area near Erbil. tel in Erbil, said almost all his clients participants will discover the Nader Rosti, an official from the are Iraqis from Baghdad and southern most remote and untouched Kurdistan Tourism Department, said provinces. sands and the highest dunes in more than 3 million people from dif- “Facilities and the good relations the region. ferent regions of Iraq visited Kurd- existing between Arabs and Kurds istan in 2018. During holidays such at the moment are key reasons for as Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha, an es- wooing visitors,” he said, adding that We welcome submissions of timated 380,000 visitors flocked to although Kurdistan is very safe, for- calendar items related to Erbil. eign tourists are rare because recent cultural events of interest to “Good services and competitive violence across Iraq affects how the travellers in the Middle East hotel prices in addition to recreation world sees the country. and North Africa. and leisure centres contributed to the Please send tips to: significant increase in the number of Oumayma Omar, based in Baghdad, [email protected] A camping site near Erbil. (Oumayma Omar) visitors. We are working on rehabili- is a contributor to the Culture and