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The COVID-19 Crisis: Impact and Implications

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The COVID-19 Crisis: Impact and Implications The COVID-19 Crisis: Impact and Implications Editor: Efraim Karsh Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 176 THE BEGIN-SADAT CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES BAR-ILAN UNIVERSITY Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 176 The COVID-19 Crisis: Impact and Implications Editor: Efraim Karsh The COVID-19 Crisis: Impact and Implications Editor: Efraim Karsh © The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies Bar-Ilan University Ramat Gan 5290002 Israel Tel. 972-3-5318959 Fax. 972-3-5359195 [email protected] www.besacenter.org ISSN 0793-1042 July 2020 Cover image: Coronavirus image via Pixabay The Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies is an independent, non-partisan think tank conducting policy-relevant research on Middle Eastern and global strategic affairs, particularly as they relate to the national security and foreign policy of Israel and regional peace and stability. It is named in memory of Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat, whose efforts in pursuing peace laid the cornerstone for conflict resolution in the Middle East. Mideast Security and Policy Studies serve as a forum for publication or re-publication of research conducted by BESA associates. Publication of a work by BESA signifies that it is deemed worthy of public consideration but does not imply endorsement of the author’s views or conclusions. Colloquia on Strategy and Diplomacy summarize the papers delivered at conferences and seminars held by the Center for the academic, military, official and general publics. In sponsoring these discussions, the BESA Center aims to stimulate public debate on, and consideration of, contending approaches to problems of peace and war in the Middle East. The Policy Memorandum series consists of policy- oriented papers. The content of the publications reflects the views of the authors only. A list of recent BESA Center publications can be found at the end of this booklet. International Advisory Board Founder of the Center and Chairman of the Advisory Board: Dr. Thomas O. Hecht Vice Chairman: Mr. Saul Koschitzky Members: Ms. Marion Hecht, Mr. Robert Hecht, Prof. Riva Heft-Hecht, Hon. Shlomo Hillel, Mr. Joel Koschitzky, Amb. Yitzhak Levanon, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, Mr. Robert K. Lifton, Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney, Mr. Seymour D. Reich, Mr. Greg Rosshandler, Amb. Zalman Shoval, Amb. Norman Spector, Ms. Drorit Wertheim International Academic Advisory Board Prof. Ian Beckett University of Kent, Dr. Eliot A. Cohen Johns Hopkins University, Prof. Irwin Cotler McGill University, Prof. Steven R. David Johns Hopkins University, Prof. Lawrence Freedman King’s College, Prof. Patrick James University of Southern California, Prof. Robert J. Lieber Georgetown University, Prof. Michael Mandelbaum Johns Hopkins University Research Staff BESA Center Director: Prof. Efraim Karsh Research Associates: Mr. Emil Avdaliani Dr. Efrat Aviv, Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Bartal, Mr. Edwin Black, Dr. Yael Bloch-Elkon, Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen, Brig. Gen. (res.) Moni Chorev, Dr. Edy Cohen, Dr. James Dorsey, Dr. Gil Feiler, Prof. Jonathan Fox, Prof. Hillel Frisch, Dr. Manfred Gerstenfeld, Prof. Eytan Gilboa, Dr. Gabriel Glickman, Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, Col. (res.) Aby Har-Even, Eado Hecht, Dr. Tsilla Hershco, Dr. Doron Itzchakov, Dr. Alex Joffe, Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, Mr. Yaakov Lappin, Prof. Udi Lebel, Dr. Alon Levkowitz, Prof. Ze’ev Maghen, Dr. Mark Meirowitz, Ambassador Arye Mekel, Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, Mr. Amir Rapaport, Dr. Asaf Romirowsky, Col. (res.) Dr. Uzi Rubin, Dr. Jonathan Rynhold, Prof. Shmuel Sandler, Dr. Yechiel Shabiy, Dr. Eitan Shamir, Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham, Prof. Shlomo Shpiro, Dr. Max Singer, Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum, Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos, Dr. Jiri Valenta, Dr. Albert Wolf. Program Coordinator: Alona Briner Publications Editor (English): Judith Levy The COVID-19 Crisis: Impact and Implications Table of Contents Sociocultural and Religious Implications How Society Will Change as the Coronavirus Crisis Abates .................. 7 Monotheistic Religions and the Coronavirus Crisis............................... 11 Coronavirus, God, and Science ............................................................. 15 European Jewish Communities and the Coronavirus Crisis ................ 17 Coronavirus in the Eyes of Muslim Clerics ............................................. 21 How Coronavirus Policy and Environmental Policy Intersect ............. 24 Coronavirus: Improvisation Is the Key to a Successful Response ...... 29 Coronavirus: State Responses and Cultural Dimensions ..................... 33 Coronavirus Fabrications Around the World ...................................... 38 Anti-Jewish Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories in Historical Context .... 41 Political Implications Government Accountability Is Being Tested in the Age of Coronavirus ..... 46 Coronavirus and the Modern State ...................................................... 49 The Long-Term Political Fallout of Coronavirus ................................... 53 Political Leadership During the Coronavirus Crisis .............................. 57 Opinion Polling During the Coronavirus Crisis ..................................... 61 How Coronavirus Emergency Measures Threaten Civil Rights .......... 68 The Coronavirus Crisis: Origins and the Way Forward ........................ 72 Economic Implications The Effect of Coronavirus on the Global Economy .............................. 89 The Coronavirus Crisis Shows Local Farming to Be an Existential Interest ... 92 Economic Preparations for the Post-Coronavirus Era ......................... 94 Technological and Scientific Implications Coronavirus: A Sputnik Moment for Science Education ...................... 99 The Internet in the Coronavirus Era ................................................... 104 Coronavirus, Security, and the Cyber-Order ....................................... 107 Global Competition The Battle of the Coronavirus Narratives ............................................. 110 Coronavirus Could Revolutionize America’s China Policy .................. 113 Pandemic Sets the Stage for a Western-Asian Ideological Contest ...... 117 Putin’s Coronavirus Crisis Is Not “Under Control” ............................ 121 Asia China and Viruses: The Case of Dr. Xiangguo Qiu .............................. 127 What Coronavirus Could Mean for China ........................................... 131 South Korea’s Approach to Coronavirus ........................................... 134 Asian Soft Power Grows in the Coronavirus Era ............................... 137 China and the Coronavirus Pandemic ................................................. 140 Europe Coronavirus Is Hitting Russia on More than the Economy .................. 142 Coronavirus and the Western Media .................................................. 146 The EU and the Coronavirus Pandemic ............................................... 150 Coronavirus and Macron’s Vision for Europe ..................................... 153 Coronavirus Reveals the Lack of Unity at the EU and the UN ........... 157 The Middle East Coronavirus and the Middle East ........................................................ 160 Coronavirus in the Middle East: Unlearned Lessons and Missed Opportunities ... 163 Responses to Coronavirus Expose Governments’ Fault Lines ........... 167 Coronavirus, China, and the Middle East ............................................ 171 Israel A Tale of Two Leaders: Netanyahu During the Coronavirus Crisis and Ben-Gurion During the War of Independence .............................. 204 The Coronavirus Pandemic: Israel Is America’s Friend In Deed ......... 208 Israel Is Fighting Spies at Home While It Battles Coronavirus ............ 211 Despite Coronavirus, Hezbollah Remains a Dangerous Threat to Israel ... 214 Iran Iran’s Nuclear and Military Efforts in the Shadow of Coronavirus and Economic Collapse ...................................................................... 220 Iran’s Coronavirus Economic Meltdown ............................................ 225 Coronavirus Delivers Another Devastating Blow to the Iranian Regime .... 228 Why Iran Is Struggling with Coronavirus ........................................... 232 Opportunity Out of Crisis: The Case of Iran ........................................ 234 Why Coronavirus Hasn’t Stopped Iranian Aggression ....................... 238 Turkey Turkey and Coronavirus: Devout Muslims Will Defeat the “Jewish Plot” .... 243 Turkey and Coronavirus: Divided We Stand ........................................ 247 Turkey: Post-Coronavirus Challenges Are Likely to Hurt .................... 250 The Arab World Coronavirus and the Arab Culture of Secrecy ................................... 254 Saudi Arabia’s Problems: Coronavirus, the Economy, and Geopolitics ... 257 Coronavirus Threatens to Drive Wedge into US-Gulf Relations ........ 260 Gulf Security: The Arab Gulf States Have No Good Options ............. 264 Can the Arab World Cope with the Coronavirus? ............................... 268 Contributor Biographies ..................................................................... 271 Sociocultural and Religious Implications How Society Will Change as the Coronavirus Crisis Abates by Dr. Manfred Gerstenfeld EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As they begin to ease their coronavirus lockdown and distancing measures, Western governments will be confronted with a huge set of problems, many of which cannot be foreseen. From a policy point of view,
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