JEROME UBRA/F-Booig Grebft STATE Mii'fvekstjt
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I No. "WHO VOTED FOR HITLER?" REVISITED: A CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE BASES OF INCREASED NAZI SUPPORT IN THE 1930 REICHSTAG ELECTION Mark H. Levine A DIsser+ation Submitted to the Graduate School of Bowling Green State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY June 1976 JEROME UBRA/f-BOOiG GREbft STATE Mii'fVEKSTJt < ì W, ho,UT c^pCL ABSTRACT In The 1930 Reichstag election the Nazi Party (NSDAP) was transformed from one of Germany’s many minor political groupings into the Reich's second leading party. Since that time the many studies aimed at explaining the sources of this tremendous surge in NSDAP support have fai led to reach a con sensus of opinion. Although virtually all analyses have des i gnated the ruraI-Protestant areas as major NSDAP strongho Ids, attempts to identify the 1930 Nazi voters in terms of their prior political behavior have been inconclusive, Researchers have alternatively attributed the growth in Nazi vote to one, or some combination of, three sources : defections from the many moderate and liberal middle-class parties, and the sudden influx of "new voters". The argument presented in this study is that this confusion can largely be attributed to the existence of two methodological problems associated with the use of aggregate data and multivariate statistical techni- ques: the "ecological fallacy" and rnulticol linearity. After reviewing various "solutions" to these proh lems, this study advances c1u ster analysis as an appro- priate means for minimizing i heir effect. Specificaily, the variable-, comparative-, and object-cIustering rou- tines of the BC TRY system of cluster analysis were used in conjunction with multiple regression analysis and tabular analysis. The results of these s I a i i st i ca I and methodological procedures confirm the v i ew f n a f while Nazi gains in 1930 were substantial throughout I he Reich, the most signifi cant increases occurred in the ruraI-Protestant areas. Within these regions, the greatest increase in Nazi sup port can be attributed to the previous supporters of the conservative DNVP. The extent of Nationalist defections to the NSDAP was somewhat greater than that of the combined centrist parties with these two groupings accounting for Ihe bulk of the Nazi increase. All com ponents of the analysis uniformly lead to the rejection of the increased voter turnout as a key factor in the 1930 growth of the Nazis. Ill "For I must not measure the speech of a statesman to his people by the impression it leaves in a university professor, but by the effect it exerts on the people." -- Adolph Hitler Pagination Error V TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... v i LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................ i X LIST OF MAPS.......................................................................................................... X INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... I THE REICHSTAG ELECTIONS: 1928 TO 1933 ..................................... 8 "WHO VOTED FOR HITLER?" 1928 TO 1933 ........................................... I 9 "WHO VOTED FOR HITLER?" 1928 To 1930 ........................................... 5 I METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES ........................... ................................................ 69 Units of analysis and the ecological fallacy..................................... ............................................... 70 Statistical procedures and multicollinearity ...................................................................... 91 Cluster analysis ........................... I 02 THE DATA ANALYS IS.............................................................................................. 108 V-ty p ing HO Units of analysis: Wahlkrei s and Kre i s V-type comparison................................. 124 V-types and Nazi support: multiple regression of Wahlkreis and Kre i s variable clusters................................ ..... , . , 128 O-ty p ing ........................................................................................... I 42 Wahlkre i s and Kre i s O-types........................... 147 0-types and 1930 Nazi support......................171 "WHO VOTED FOR HITLER? REVISITED: SOME ISSUES AND ANSWERS........................................................................................................... 195 REFERENCES 2 I 3 v i LIST OF TABLES Page 2. I Reichstag Elections: 1928-1933 ................................ 9 3. I The Electoral Districts (Wahlkreise) .... 23 4. I Reich Election Totals and Change: 1928 and 1930.......................... 57 4.2 Types and Frequency of Findings.............................. 59 4.3 Findings by Disciplinary Affiliation of Researcher.....................................................................................60 5. I Models, Findings, and Statistics Employed by Researcher in the Analysis of the 1930 Reichstag Election ................................ 72 5.2 A Iternat i ve Models of Aggregation Employed in the Analysis of Weimar EIecto raI Data........................................................................... 73 5.3 Wahlkreis by Wahlkreis Per Cent of Total Vote Received by Nazis 1928, 1930, and 1928-1930 Change ........................................... 75 5.4 Areas Employed as "Universe" .by Researchers Using Aggregation Model II . 77 5.5 Areas Employed as "Un i verse" by Researchers Using Aggregation Model IV.. 8 I 5.6 Aggregation Model Employed by Discipline . 82 5.7 Findings by Aggregation Model Employed . 85 5.8 Method of Statistical Analysi s by Aggregation Model Employed . 94 5.9 Method of Statistical Analysis by Disciplinary Affil ation of Researcher . 96 5.10 Findings by Method of Statistical Analysis EmpIoyed 98 6. I Variables in Final Cluster Analysis . I 4 V i 6.2 Expanded Cluster Structure (Wahlkreise) .... 116 6.3 Expanded Cluster Structure (Kreise) ............................. 121 6. 4 Exß^nded Cluster Structure (Wahlkreis a ng Kre i s Comparison)................................................................ 126 6. 5 Correlations Between Oblique Cluster Domains ( W a h I k r e i s e )..................................................................... 129 6.6 Correlations Between Oblique Cluster Domains (Kreise)................................................................................ I 30 6.7 Compa r i son of Wahlkreis and Kreis Regression Coefficients (Nazi Vote in 1930) I 36 6.8 Comparison of Wahlkreis and Kreis Regression Coefficients (Nazi Gain in 1930)..................................... I 37 6.9 Estimates of I n d i v i d ua I - I e ve I Regression Coefficients Ranges (Kre i s/WahIkre i s Overlap)......................................................138 6. 10 Homogeneity of Kre i s 0-types (7 0-types). 149 6.11 Means of Kreis on Variable Clusters ( 7 0-types )................................................................................................150 6. 12 Standard Deviations of Kre i s 0-types ( 7 0-types )................................................................................................153 6.13 Euclidean Distances Between Kreis 0-types (7 0-types )............................................................... 154 6.14 Homogeneity of Wahlkreis 0-types ( I I 0 - types ) ..................................................................................... 156 6.15 Means of W a hIk r e i s 0-types on Variable Clusters (I I 0-types)................................................................ 157 6.16 Standard Deviations of Wahl kreis 0-types ( I I 0-types )...........................................................................................159 6.17 Euclidean Distances Between Wahlkreis 0-types ( I I 0-types ) ......................................................................................160 6.18 Homogeneity of Wahlkreis 0-types (6 0-types ) ......................................................................................16 1 6.19 Means of Wahlkreis 0-types on Variable Clusters (6 0-types)......................................................................162 V i i i 6.20 Standard Deviations of Wahlkreis 0-types ( 6 O-ty pes )...........................................................................................164 6.2 I Euclidean Distances Between WahIkre i s 0-types (6 0-types)..................................................................... 165 6.22 Summary of Types Derived from Object Clustering Solutions ................................................................ 166 6.23 1930 Nazi Vote by 0-type CKj................................................173 6.24 1930 Nazi Vote by 0-type EWK( II ) 3.......................................175 6.25 1930 Nazi Vote by 0-type CWK(6)].....................................176 6.26 1930 Nazi Gain by 0-type CK]................................................184 6.27 Mean Nazi Vote (Percentage of Total Vote) By Kre i s 0-types................................................................186 6.28 1930 Nazi Gain by 0-type EWK(il)]................................188 6.29 1930 Nazi Gain by 0-type EWK(6)]................................ 190 F I x LIST OF FIGURES Page 3. I Hypo+hetical Model of Maximum Voter Shifts Between 1928 and July 1932: AI I SPD Losses to KPD....................................................................................................