On Evolution, Abortion, and Astrology

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Survey research about the kinds of people who read horoscopes shows the effects of religious and scientific beliefs. There are a few surprises. ALAN ORENSTEIN

s a conscientious reader of this journal, I have come to the conclusion that religion is responsible for a A lot of silly stuff, and if people would just come to understand and appreciate science, much of this silliness would disappear. Being a skeptic, I thought it would be appropriate to reconcile these beliefs with data from polls and surveys. Let’s examine some questions.

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals. Is that true or false?” This item comes from the 2006 General Social Survey (GSS), a national probability sample taken every two years by the National Opinion Research Center, probably the most widely used survey in the social sciences. As other con-

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scientious readers probably suspect, a great many people—an est me because they run counter to my expectations. Shouldn’t amazing number, in fact—believe the above statement is false; it be the people who are unsophisticated about evolution who to be precise, 50.4 percent from a sample of 1,570 answered are also unsophisticated about astrology? And why are people “false,” not counting the 290 who did not know and the four who hold values I approve of with respect to abortion not who refused to say. equally sensible when it comes to astrology? To suggest an answer, I divided the respondents into four “Do you ever read a horoscope or your personal astrology report?” groups: 1) people who believe in evolution and go to church fre- Admittedly, this is a less cleanly worded item. Are respondents quently (defined as “nearly every week” or more often); 2) peo- being asked whether they have ever in their lives read a horo- ple who believe in evolution and go to church less frequently; 3) scope or whether they do so currently? And how regularly? Is people who do not believe in evolution and go to church fre- it for light entertainment or for solace? Despite these lacunae, quently; and 4) people who do not believe in evolution and go the percentage who said “yes”—57.6 percent—is unsettling. to church less frequently. Three of these groups are exactly the It is the relation between the two questions above that is of same in their reported use of astrology—roughly 64 percent of interest: 62.9 percent of people who believe in evolution con- each group has consulted their horoscopes. In one group, only sult their horoscopes compared to a mere 49.6 percent of peo- 35 percent admit to consulting horoscopes. Which group is it? ple who do not believe in evolution. It is the group in which respondents do not believe in evolution and attend church frequently. I found the same result for the “Please tell me whether or not you think it should be possible for abortion question: it was the combination of frequent church a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if the woman wants attendance and anti-abortion attitudes that reduced astrology it for any reason.” use (to only 39 percent), while the other three groups were The majority of abortion supporters (61.8 percent) report higher (63 percent, 62 percent, and 54 percent). consulting their horoscopes, compared to 52.6 percent of peo- My interpretation of this pattern is that commitment to a ple who do not support abortion. Both of these results inter- church inoculates people against exploring other belief systems. By commitment, I mean both attending the church fre- Alan Orenstein, PhD, is a retired sociologist who has taught in the quently and espousing its dogma. When people attend church Boston area (Tufts, University of Massachusetts, University of frequently but are freethinkers who do not accept its stance on Lowell, and Northeastern) and done evaluation research on both evolution or abortion, they feel free to explore astrology. When coasts. He can be reached at [email protected]. people hold anti-evolution or anti-abortion attitudes but do

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not go to church regularly, they are not being regularly inocu- and whether antibiotics can kill viruses as well as bacteria. On lated against exploring other belief systems. Attitudes or five of these general science questions, 51 percent of those who church attendance are not enough by themselves to reduce got all of the answers right consulted horoscopes compared to horoscope use; they need to be combined to prevent the indi- 56 percent of those who got four answers right and 65 percent vidual from straying into credulity. of those who got three or fewer answers right. Here is an effect One last finding: The GSS asks about the religious denom- of greater scientific knowledge. However, knowledge of science ination of the churches that people attend. It divides these into is highly correlated with the results of a vocabulary test that was fundamentalist, moderate, and liberal churches. The results also administered during the survey. Statistically, holding con- given above for evolution hold for all three types of denomi- stant vocabulary scores reduces the relationship between sci- nations when each is examined separately; the results for abor- ence knowledge and horoscope use to insignificance. Perhaps tion hold for fundamentalist and moderate denominations. science and vocabulary scores have something in common (like Frequent religious attendance appears to be more important in alertness) that is causing the differences in horoscope use. producing these results than the particular flavor or type of Some of the GSS questions measure the perceived value of church that the individual attends. science. For example, respondents were asked whether the benefits of science outweigh any harmful results; 74 percent agreed while only 7.4 percent thought the harmful effects were Can science replace religious greater. Asked whether scientific research is necessary and should receive government support, 90 percent agreed. While commitment, as skeptics hope? these five items had no relationship to astrology use, they do If this were so, we should find that indicate that the prestige of science is already so high that it is unclear how much more it can be raised. a belief in science suppresses the One of the most interesting results comes from the follow- exploration of alternative belief systems, ing item: “Would you say that astrology is very scientific, sort of scientific, or not at all scientific?” Only 4.8 percent of the just as religious commitment does. sample said “very scientific;” 27.4 percent said “sort of scientific;” and most people (67.8 percent) said “not at all scientific.” While 73 percent of the first two groups consult their horo- In sum, those who are religiously committed may believe a scopes, only 51 percent of the third group does so. Believing hundred unlikely things before breakfast, but their commitment that astrology is scientific does increase horoscope use. inoculates them against a thousand other impossible things. It is However, notice that a majority of those who say that astrology because only about a quarter of the American population is reli- is not at all scientific also consult their horoscopes. Whether giously committed that so many people are free to explore and something is considered scientific or not does not seem to be as believe in things for which there is little or no evidence. meaningful to the general public as it is to skeptics. Can science replace religious commitment, as skeptics Finally, respondents were asked if they felt they have a clear hope? If this were so, we should find that a belief in science understanding of what is meant by a scientific study. Of those suppresses the exploration of alternative belief systems, just as who thought they had little understanding, 58 percent consulted religious commitment does. However, there is precious little their horoscopes; of those who thought they had a clear under- evidence to suggest that this is true. standing, 54 percent consulted horoscopes. However, there was a To start with education, which supposedly exposes people big difference between these two groups in believing that astrol- to science, the correlation between years of schooling and ogy is not at all scientific: 58 percent versus 80 percent. horoscope use is +0.01, or approximately zero. For example, In sum, skeptics seem to believe or hope that a decline in 54 percent of those who did not graduate high school and 57 religious belief and a strengthening of scientific belief and percent of those with postgraduate college degrees answered knowledge will save us from astrology, UFOs, psychic sur- “yes” about horoscope use. Among four-year college graduates, geons, haunted houses, remote viewing, pyramid power, and 52.7 percent of those who took one or more college-level sci- other such things. In fact, were there to be a decline in religion ence course consulted their horoscopes compared to 52.8 per- and religious commitment, this would likely strengthen, not cent of those who had not taken any science courses. Among undermine, paranormal beliefs. In addition, we can find little those who did not graduate from a four-year college, 54.0 per- evidence that astrology use is being affected by such factors as cent of those with no high school science courses and 54.6 per- knowledge about science, exposure to general education or sci- cent of those who had taken three science courses (biology, ence courses, or the prestige accorded to science. Neither a chemistry, and physics) consulted horoscopes. Neither educa- decline in religious commitment nor greater exposure to and tion in general science nor education in specialized science support for science is likely to move our society very far in the courses, at least as they are currently constituted, show any direction espoused by the skeptical community. effect on horoscope use. To keep someone away from the para- ! normal, send them to church rather than school. Note: The raw data in this article (and the statistical tools to manip- The GSS asked whether electrons are smaller than atoms ulate these data) are available at www.sda.berkeley.edu.

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