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College Enrollment and Retention in the Era of Covid

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College Enrollment and Retention in the Era of Covid College Board Research & Development Statistical Report Month Day, YEAR a College Enrollment and Retention in the Era of Covid Jessica Howell, Vice President, Research Mike Hurwitz, Executive Director, Policy Research Jennifer Ma, Senior Policy Research Scientist Matea Pender, Policy Research Scientist Greg Perfetto, Executive Research Scientist Jeffrey Wyatt, Senior Research Scientist Linda Young, Senior Database Statistician June 2021 To learn more visit research.collegeboard.org © 2021 The College Board Contents Introduction 6 Section 1: Unadjusted Changes in Enrollment, Retention, and Persistence Rates 9 College Enrollment Rates Figure 1: Immediate College Enrollment Rates Among Students by Sector in the 2018 to 2020 High School Graduating Cohorts, by Sector 9 and Cohort College Retention and Figure 2: First-Year Retention and Persistence Rates Among Persistence Rates by College Students in the 2017 to 2019 Entering Cohorts, by 10 Sector Sector and Cohort Section 2: Regression-Adjusted Percentage Changes in Enrollment Rates 11 Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 3: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 11 Cohort, by Sector Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 4: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 12 Race/Ethnicity Cohort, by Race/Ethnicity Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 5: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Parental Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 13 Education Cohort, by Parental Education Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 6: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Enrollment Rates of 2020 Cohort Compared to 2019 Cohort, by 14 Neighborhood Attributes Neighborhood Attributes Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 7: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and High Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 15 School Free and Reduced Cohort, by High School Free and Reduced Price Lunch Eligibility Price Lunch Eligibility Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 8: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and High Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 16 School Locale Cohort, by High School Locale Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 9: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and High Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 17 School GPA Cohort, by High School GPA Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 10: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Student Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 18 State of Residence Cohort, by Student State of Residence Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 11: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted Four- by Sector and In-State Year College Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to 19 Status the 2019 Cohort, by In-State Status Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 12: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Local Covid Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 20 Case Rate Cohort, by Local Covid Case Rate 2 Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 13: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Local Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 21 Unemployment Rate Cohort, by Local Unemployment Rate Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 14: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and College Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 22 Region Cohort, by Region of College Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 15: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Carnegie Classification Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 23 Cohort, by Carnegie Classification Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 16: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Published Tuition and Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 24 Fees at Four-Year Cohort, by Four-Year Published Tuition and Fees Colleges Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 17: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Admission Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 25 Rate Cohort, by Admission Rate Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 18: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Admission Rate and Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 26 High School GPA Cohort, by Admission Rate and High School GPA Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 19: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Pell Share Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 27 Cohort, by Pell Share Enrollment Rate Changes Figure 20: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and HBCU Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort Compared to the 2019 28 Status Cohort, by HBCU Status Section 3: Regression-Adjusted Percentage Changes in Retention Rates 29 Retention and Persistence Figure 21: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted Rate Changes by Sector Retention and Persistence Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared 29 to the 2018 Cohort, by Sector Retention Rate Changes Figure 22: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 30 Race/Ethnicity Cohort, by Race/Ethnicity Retention Rate Changes Figure 23: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Parental Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 31 Education Cohort, by Parental Education Retention Rate Changes Figure 24: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 32 Neighborhood Attributes Cohort, by Neighborhood Attributes Retention Rate Changes Figure 25: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and High Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 33 School Free and Reduced Cohort, by High School Free and Reduced Price Lunch Eligibility Price Lunch Eligibility Retention Rate Changes Figure 26: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and High Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 34 School Locale Cohort, by High School Locale 3 Retention Rate Changes Figure 27: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and High Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 35 School GPA Cohort, by High School GPA Retention Rate Changes Figure 28: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Student Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 36 State of Residence Cohort, by Student State of Residence Retention Rate Changes Figure 29: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted Four- by Sector and In-State Year College Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to 37 Status the 2018 Cohort, by In-State Status Retention Rate Changes Figure 30: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Local Covid Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 38 Case Rate Cohort, by Local Covid Case Rate Retention Rate Changes Figure 31: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Local Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 39 Unemployment Rate Cohort, by Local Unemployment Rate Retention Rate Changes Figure 32: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and College Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 40 Region Cohort, by Region of College Retention Rate Changes Figure 33: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Carnegie Classification Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 41 Cohort, by Carnegie Classification Retention Rate Changes Figure 34: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Published Tuition and Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 42 Fees at Four-Year Cohort, by Four-Year Published Tuition and Fees Colleges Retention Rate Changes Figure 35: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Admission Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 43 Rate Cohort, by Admission Rate Retention Rate Changes Figure 36: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Admission Rate and Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 44 High School GPA Cohort, by Admission Rate and High School GPA Retention Rate Changes Figure 37: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and Pell Share Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 45 Cohort, by Pell Share Retention Rate Changes Figure 38: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted by Sector and HBCU Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort Compared to the 2018 46 Status Cohort, by HBCU Status Appendix 47 Figure A1: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted Enrollment Rates of the 2020 Cohort 48 Compared to the 2019 Cohort, by Admission Rate and SAT® Score Figure A2: Percentage Change in Regression-Adjusted Retention Rates of the 2019 Cohort 49 Compared to the 2018 Cohort, by Admission Rate and SAT® Score Table 1: Number of College Board Assessment Takers, 2017 to 2020 Cohorts 50 Table 2: Distribution of College Board Assessment Takers, 2017 to 2020 Cohorts 51 4 Table 3 (online): Enrollment Regression Results (coefficient estimates of 2020, 2019 mean enrollment rates, and percentage change from 2019 to 2020) Table 4 (online): Retention Regression Results (coefficient estimates of 2019, 2018 mean enrollment rates, and percentage change from 2018 to 2019) Data and Methodology 53 References 55 About College Board 57 5 Introduction The covid-19 pandemic disrupted education in the spring of 2020, just as many admissions offices across the country were preparing to extend admissions offers to seniors in the high school graduating class of 2020. A March 2020 survey by Art & Science Group foreshadowed a potentially alarming disruption in
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