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Alberta's Oil Sands: an Overview

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Alberta’s Oil Sands: An Overview Presented by Jim Carter to FEI Canada Jasper, Alberta June 2008 Oil sand A unique resource • Oil sand a mixture of bitumen, sand, water and clay • Two methods of viable recovery today: ¾In-situ—wells below 80 metres ¾Surface mining— accounts for most activity to date Oil sands in three deposits The Syncrude Mildred Lake plant site Athabasca Fort McMurray Peace River Cold Lake Edmonton Calgary Source: Athabasca Oil Sands Developers Oil Sands Related Projects Syncrude ConocoPhillips Suncor TransCanada JACOS Devon Imperial Oil Petro-Canada EnCana Opti/Nexen ATHABASCA CNRL Total E&P Atco TransAlta Fort McMurray Albian Sands Shell Husky Synenco PEACE RIVER Whitesands Kinder Morgan Fort Hills MEG Energy Connacher Birch Mountain Enbridge Korean Nat’l Oil COLD LAKE UTS North American Value Creation Edmonton EnCana CNRL Shell Calgary Imperial Husky EnCana Suncor CNRL Petrovera Shell Construction Capital Expenditure Forecast – New Records Predicted for Alberta Oil Sands 2007 Forecast: All Alberta oil sands projects including mines, insitu, upgraders, pipelines and co-gen plants. 100% all announced & discounted cases. 30,000 $47B spent to date 1996 - 2006 $83B forecast for 2007 – 2012 - Discounted 25,000 $124B forecast for 2007 – 2012 - All Announced Actual Forecast 20,000 15,000 $ million Cdn million $ 10,000 5,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Construction Capital Expenditure Construction Capital Expenditure Discounted Construction Capital - Actual Source: CAPP & Nichols Applied Management Forecast of Sustaining Capital & Operating Costs An Ongoing Mega Project for the Life of the Resource 2007 Forecast: All Alberta oil sands related projects – including mines, insitu, upgraders, pipeline and co-gen plants. 100% all announced case. 30,000 Sustaining Capital: 25,000 Year 2007 - $2.0B Year 2017 - $5.0 B Actual Forecast Operating Costs: 20,000 Year 2007 – $9.0 B Year 2017 - $22.6 B 15,000 $ million Cdn million $ Operating Costs 10,000 5,000 Sustaining Capital - 3 0 13 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sustaining Capital Operating Costs Alberta Oil Sands – Forecast of Combined Expenditures: Opex to Double Current Capex in the Next 10 Years 45,000 40,000 2007 Forecast: All Alberta oil sands relate upgraders, pipeline an 35,000 30,000 Construction Capital Operating 25,000 Costs Sustaining Capital $ million20,000 Cdn 2007 TOTAL $15.8B 15,000 d co-gen plants. 10 $9.0B 2017 10,000 $2.0B $7.3B $26.8B $22.6B 5,000 $5.0B $34.9B Actual Forecast d projects – including - 0% all announced case. Source: CAPP, Nichols Applied Management 1996 1997 1998 1999 mines, insitu, 2000 Sustaining2001 Capital 2002 2003 Construction Capital 2004 Operating200 Costs5 2006 2007 2008 Operating Costs Construction2009 Capital Expenditure 2010 2011 2012 Sustaining Capital 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Alberta Oil Sands Bitumen Production Forecast – At Least Triple in 10 Years 5,000 4,500 2007 Forecast: All Albe 4,000 Year 2006 – 1.1 M bpd Year 2017 – 3.1 M bpd (discounted case) 3,500 Year 2017 – 4.4 M bpd (100% case 3,000 2,500 rta oil sands projects 2,000 '000 Barrels per Day 1,500 1,000 500 ) 0 Actual Forecast 1996 Source: CAPP & Nichols1997 Applied Management 100% All Announced1998 Bitumen Production 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Discounted Bitumen Production 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 A 2013 ctual Bitumen Production 2014 2015 2016 2017 The rise of the oil sands industry Conventional vs. Oil Sands Production 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Oil Sands 1,000 thousand barrels per day per barrels thousand 500 Conventional Oil 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers Continuing Benefits: Oil Sands Permanent Operations Jobs – Wood Buffalo Region 25,000 2007 Forecast: Cumulative permanent oper located in the Wood Buffal 20,000 1998 15,000 2007 2017 ~ 6,600 people directly ~ Over 5,000 new jobs ~ 18,500 new jobs 10,000 5,000 o Region (does not incl Cumulative New Operations Jobs ~ nearly tripemployed by oil sands ~ nearly double 1998 jobs 0 le 1998 jobs ations jobs for oil sands projects Source: Nichols Applied Management 1998 Actual Forecast 1999 ude construction jobs). 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Wood Buffalo Urban Population Forecast 140,000 • • 2007 Forecast – Urban Popul 120,000 Does not include over 20,000 100,000 RIWG’s population forecast process has been approved by a third party audit performed 80,000 by Deloitte Touche Population 60,000 40,000 ation – Fort McMurray Urba workers currently in work 20,000 Actual Forecast 0 1996 Source: RMWB Census & Nichols Applied Management 1997 n Service Area/Saprae Creek camps and hotels/motels 1998 1999 Census-Fort McMurray/Saprae Cr. 2000 67,067 2001 Average annual 2002 population increase of 9% over past 7 years and 2003 expected average 2004 through to 2010 2005 2006 2007 Discounted2008 Case 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Development Case 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Wood Buffalo Urban Housing Demand Forecast 2007 Cumulative housing demand forecast for Fort McMurray 35,000 Current Avg. SF House Price1 Fort McMurray $605,495 30,000 Edmonton $417,150 Calgary $505,920 Current Avg. Rent – 2 bdrm2 25,000 Fort McMurray $1,680 Edmonton $ 877 Calgary $1,037 20,000 15,000 • Supply / Demand Gap indicated by high and rising housing costs # Housing UnitsRequired 10,000 • Timely land release plays a critical role in the solution 5,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Built Total Demand Source: Nichols Applied Management 1 – Fort McMurray, Edmonton, Calgary Real Estate Boards July 07, 2 – CMHC – Spring 07 RMWB Municipal Tax Base Growth Forecast – Tax Base Will More than Triple in 10 Years 2007 Forecast of RMWB Tax Base Growth: Oil sands industrial assessment to grow 12% per year compounding for the next 10 years. 40,000 2007 tax payments by oil 35,000 sands companies ($120M) represent 66% of all RMWB 30,000 tax revenue. 25,000 20,000 $ millions 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Nichols Applied Management Alberta OilSandsRoyalties:Historical &2007Forecast Source: Nichols Applied Management $ milion Cdn 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 - 2007 Oil Sands Royalty For 2007 OilSandsRoyalty 100% all announced case. all 100% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 US WTI $65/bblaverage $2.4 Billion Year 2006/07 Record Actual Forecast 2004 ecast: Basedonoilpr 2005 2006 2007 • takingsomeprojects investment Capital • Election & Suncor Bitumen Syncrude • Price Forecast(USWTI Lower $60/bbl) • High LevelofCapitalInvestment back topre-payoutstatus 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ice ofWTIUS$60/bbl. 2013 2014 2015 Reaching Payout Reaching New Projects 2016 2017 - $4.5 BandClimbing 2017 2018 2019 2020 Alberta Oil Sands – Royalty & Corporate Provincial Taxes Alberta Government Return Will More than Double in 10 Years 2007 Forecast: Based on oil price of WTI US$60/bbl. Includes Bitumen Royalty Option (BRO) for Syncrude and Suncor. 100% all announced case. 8,000 7,000 Year 2007: AB Corp. Tax - $794M Royalties - $1.8B 6,000 Actual Forecast Year 2017: AB Corporate Tax 5,000 AB Corp. Tax - $2.4B Royalties - $4.4B 4,000 3,000 $ milions Cdn 2,000 1,000 Royalties - 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Oil Sands Royalties WTI US$60 Corporate Tax Payments Provincial Source: Nichols Applied Management Input assumes $0.87 exchange rate Alberta Oil Sands – Royalties, Provincial & Federal Corporate Taxes. Combined Gov’t Return Will Nearly Triple in 10 Years 10,000 9,000 2007 Forecast: Based on oil pr 8,000 Year 2007: 7,000 AB Corp. Tax - $794M Fed. Corp. Tax - $887M 6,000 Royalties - $1.8B 5,000 Year 2017: $ million Cdn AB Corp. Tax - $2.4B 4,000 Fed. Corp. Tax - $3.7B Royalties - $4.4B 3,000 ice of WTI US$60/bbl . 2,000 1,000 Actual Forecast - Source: Nichols Applied Management Input assumes $0.87 exchange1996 rate 100% all announced case. 1997 1998 1999 Oil Sands Royalties 2000 Federal Corporate Tax 2001 2002 2003 Corporate2 Tax00 4Payments Alberta 2005 AB Corporate Tax 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Corporate2011 Tax Payments Federal 2012 Royalties 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Alberta Oil Sands – Comparison of Royalties and Construction Capital Expenditures – A Successful Regime According to Plan 30,000 • 2007 Royalty Forecast: based on oil price of • 2007 Capital Construction Expendit 25,000 20,000 15,000 $ million Cdn 10,000 5,000 Actual Forecasture Forecast: 100% 0 WTI US$60/bbl. 100% all announced case. Source: CAPP, Nichols Applied1996 Management Input assumes $0.87 exchange rate 1997 1998 all announced case. 1999 2000 Construction Capital Spending 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0 9 Oil Sands2 0Royalties WTI US$60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Wood Buffalo First Nations Fort Smith Fort Fitzgerald S S Mikisew Cree a a s s k k First Nation a Athabasca Chipewyan a t t c c h h e First Nation e w a w e ca a Athabasca k a a s L n L ba n River a th Fort A Wood Buffalo Chipewyan National Park Fort McKay ad o R First Nation er t in W Fort McMurray No.
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