First Quarter 2020
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Report on Economic and Financial Developments First Quarter 2020 BANGKO SENTRAL NG PILIPINAS Report on Economic and Financial Developments – First Quarter 2020 Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 4 Real Sector ................................................................................................................................ 5 Aggregate Supply and Demand ................................................................................................... 5 Labor and Employment ............................................................................................................... 8 Fiscal Sector .............................................................................................................................. 9 National Government Cash Operations ...................................................................................... 9 Monetary Sector ..................................................................................................................... 10 Prices ......................................................................................................................................... 10 Domestic Liquidity ..................................................................................................................... 11 Monetary Policy Developments ................................................................................................ 12 Monetary Operations ................................................................................................................ 13 Domestic Interest Rates ............................................................................................................ 14 Financial Sector ....................................................................................................................... 15 Banking System ......................................................................................................................... 15 Banking Policies ......................................................................................................................... 19 Capital Market Reforms ............................................................................................................ 20 Stock Market ............................................................................................................................. 20 Bond Market .............................................................................................................................. 21 Credit Risk Assessment .............................................................................................................. 23 Payments and Settlements System ........................................................................................... 24 External Sector ........................................................................................................................ 24 Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................. 24 International Reserves .............................................................................................................. 28 Exchange Rate ........................................................................................................................... 29 External Debt ............................................................................................................................. 30 Foreign Interest Rates ............................................................................................................... 32 Global Economic Developments ............................................................................................... 33 Financial Condition of the BSP ................................................................................................. 36 Balance Sheet ............................................................................................................................ 36 Income Statement ..................................................................................................................... 37 Conclusion, Challenges and Policy Directions ........................................................................... 37 Annexes .................................................................................................................................. 40 List of Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Symbols ......................................................................... 45 Statistical Tables ..................................................................................................................... 47 First Quarter 2020 Report on Economic and Financial Developments | i Domestic liquidity ample. Money supply or M3 Executive Summary grew by 13.3 percent y-o-y as of end-March 2020 to about P13.1 trillion The expansion was driven by the 9.1-percent y-o-y growth in net foreign assets The Philippine economy contracts in Q1 2020. The and the 11.9-percent growth in domestic claims in country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) February 2020. Credit extended to the private declined by 0.2 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) in the sector rose by 11.2 percent, supported by the first quarter of 2020, a significant drop from the sustained increase in bank lending. 6.7-percent growth achieved in Q4 2019 due to the Taal volcano eruption and coronavirus disease The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduces the (COVID-19) outbreak. Household consumption policy rate cumulatively by 75 basis points (bps) in slowed down significantly while a sharp decline in Q1 2020. At its monetary policy meeting on capital formation was recorded due to the 6 February, the BSP decided to cut its key policy implementation of enhanced community interest rate (overnight reverse repurchase or RRP quarantine (ECQ) in Luzon and other parts of the facility) by 25 bps to 3.75 percent as a pre-emptive country by the National Government (NG). move to support market confidence amid the potential spillovers associated with increased Labor market conditions weaken. The number of external headwinds and the possible adverse employed persons decreased to 42.7 million in impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic January 2020 from 43.1 million in October 2019. activity and market sentiment. In its 19-March Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in January policy meeting, the BSP reduced the key policy rate 2020 was estimated at 5.3 percent, 0.8 percentage anew by 50 bps to 3.25 percent for the overnight point (ppt) higher than the rate in October 2019. RRP facility as a follow-on monetary policy Underemployment rate also rose to 14.8 percent response to address the adverse spillovers from 13.0 percent. Meanwhile, labor force associated with the ongoing pandemic. For both participation rose to 61.7 percent during the same policy interest rate cuts, the corresponding interest period. rates on the overnight lending and deposit facilities were also reduced accordingly. NG operations record a narrower deficit. The cash operations of the NG yielded a deficit of Domestic interest rates rise. Amid concerns and P74.0 billion (1.7 percent of GDP) in Q1 2020, uncertainty over the impact of the Taal volcano 18.0 percent lower than the year-ago deficit level of eruption and the COVID-19 outbreak, Treasury bill P90.2 billion (2.0 percent of GDP). Total revenues (T-bill) rates in the primary market as well as as a share of GDP was recorded at 17.3 percent in government securities (GS) yields in the secondary Q1 2020, higher than the Q1 2019 share of market increased in end-March 2020 when 15.5 percent due to higher tax collections and non- compared to those in the previous quarter. tax revenues. Total NG disbursements was recorded at 19.0 percent of GDP in Q1 2020, an increase from Banking system remains sound and stable. The the previous year’s ratio of 17.6 percent. banking system's total resources reached ₱18.8 trillion as of end-March 2020, equivalent to Inflation is higher in Q1 2020. Headline inflation 96.0 percent of GDP. Asset quality remained stable, averaged at 2.7 percent y-o-y in Q1 2020 from with net non-performing loan (NNPL) ratio at 1.6 percent in the previous quarter as both food 1.2 percent and gross NPL ratio at 2.2 percent, as of and non-food inflation increased. Meanwhile, core end-March 2020. Capital adequacy ratios, both on inflation also went up to 3.2 percent y-o-y in solo and consolidated basis, remained well above Q1 2020 from 2.7 percent in the previous quarter. the BSP’s regulatory threshold of 10.0 percent and The Q1 2020 inflation was within the Government’s the international standard of 8.0 percent. inflation target range of 3.0 percent ± 1.0 ppt for the year. Stock market declines. The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dropped sharply in Q1 2020 due largely to the outbreak of the COVID-19 2 | First Quarter 2020 Report on Economic and Financial Developments pandemic and investor concerns over its impact on impact of the COVID-19 on the economy also the Philippine economy. The PSEi averaged supported the peso. 6,876.72 index points during the period-in-review, about 12.4 percent lower than its level in the Global economic activity slows down due to the previous quarter. Year-to-date, the