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Philippine Economic Update Pursuing Inclusive Growth Through Sustainable Reconstruction and Job Creation

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Philippine Economic Update Pursuing Inclusive Growth Through Sustainable Reconstruction and Job Creation Report No. 83315-PH Public Disclosure Authorized PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC UPDATE PURSUING INCLUSIVE GROWTH THROUGH SUSTAINABLE RECONSTRUCTION AND JOB CREATION Public Disclosure Authorized March 2014 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit Philippine Country Office East Asia and Pacific Region Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank 1 PREFACE The Philippine Economic Update provides an update on key economic and social developments, and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank studies on the Philippines. It places them in a longer term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and policies on the outlook for the Philippines. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy and financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in the Philippines. The Philippine Economic Update is a report of the World Bank’s Philippine Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) team. It was prepared by Karl Kendrick Chua (Senior Country Economist and Task Team Leader), Paul Mariano (Research Analyst and Co-Task Team Leader), Kai Kaiser (Senior Economist), Amelia Johnston (Economist), Joseph Louie Limkin (Research Analyst), Kevin Cruz (Research Assistant), and Anthony Sabarillo (Junior Research Assistant) under the guidance of Rogier van den Brink (Lead Economist). Secretarial and publication support by Maria Consuelo Sy (Program Assistant) and Ayleen Ang (Team Assistant) are gratefully acknowledged. The sections on Typhoon Yolanda were contributed by a diverse group of individuals from the Philippine Country Management Unit, the East Asia Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Human Development Unit, and the Sustainable Development Unit. Special thanks go to Catherine Vidar (Disaster Risk Management Specialist) for coordinating the World Bank’s typhoon assistance to the Philippines. The following contributed to the special focus sections: Kai Kaiser (Senior Economist) on tourism industry challenge and Julien Labonne (Consultant) on the KALAHI-CIDSS impact evaluation. The Manila Communications Team, comprising Leonora Gonzales (Senior Communications Officer), David Llorito (Communications Officer), Justine Letargo (Online Communications Officer), and Geralyn Rigor (Program Assistant), prepared the media release, dissemination, and multimedia products for the web. The report benefited from advice, comments, and views of various stakeholders in the World Bank, the Government, business, labor, academe, and civil society. The team is very grateful for their time and inputs. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this Update are those of World Bank staff and do not necessarily reflect the views of its management, Executive Board, or the governments they represent. 2 To be included in the email distribution list of the Philippine Economic Update and related publications, please contact Maria Consuelo Sy ([email protected]). For questions and comments on the content of this publication, please contact Karl Kendrick Chua ([email protected]). Questions from the media can be addressed to David Llorito ([email protected]). For information about the World Bank and its activities in the Philippines, please visit www.worldbank.org/ph. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ................................................................................................................................................................ 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................... 5 RECENT ECONOMIC AND POLICY DEVELOPMENTS ...................................................................................................................................... 5 PROSPECTS, RISKS, AND POLICIES .......................................................................................................................................................... 6 BUILDING BACK BETTER AFTER TYPHOON YOLANDA ................................................................................................................................... 6 MEDIUM-TERM AGENDA: WORKING TOGETHER TO ADDRESS THE JOBS CHALLENGE ........................................................................................... 8 RECENT ECONOMIC AND POLICY DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................... 10 OUTPUT AND DEMAND ..................................................................................................................................................................... 10 POVERTY AND EMPLOYMENT.............................................................................................................................................................. 12 TYPHOON YOLANDA ........................................................................................................................................................................ 13 EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 17 FINANCIAL MARKETS ........................................................................................................................................................................ 21 PRICES AND MONETARY POLICY........................................................................................................................................................... 21 FISCAL POLICY ................................................................................................................................................................................ 24 PROSPECTS, RISKS, AND POLICIES ........................................................................................................................ 27 OUTPUT AND DEMAND ..................................................................................................................................................................... 27 EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS ...................................................................................................................................................................... 31 PRICES AND MONETARY POLICY........................................................................................................................................................... 34 FISCAL POLICY ................................................................................................................................................................................ 34 BUILDING BACK BETTER AFTER TYPHOON YOLANDA ........................................................................................... 37 RECONSTRUCTION ASSISTANCE ON YOLANDA (RAY) ............................................................................................................................... 37 SUSTAINABLE RECONSTRUCTION AFTER TYPHOON YOLANDA ...................................................................................................................... 38 MONITORING AND EVALUATING FOR SUCCESS ........................................................................................................................................ 43 DISASTER RISK FINANCING AND INSURANCE FRAMEWORK .......................................................................................................................... 45 MEDIUM-TERM AGENDA: WORKING TOGETHER TO ADDRESS THE JOBS CHALLENGE ......................................... 47 THE JOBS CHALLENGE ....................................................................................................................................................................... 47 THE PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT STORY .................................................................................................................................................. 49 WHAT WENT WRONG IN THE PHILIPPINES? ........................................................................................................................................... 51 A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE MORE AND BETTER JOBS .............................................................................................................. 52 WORKING TOGETHER TOWARDS A JOBS AGENDA .................................................................................................................................... 53 THE REFORM AGENDA FOR JOB CREATION ............................................................................................................................................. 57 A THREE-TRACKED IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................................................................................................... 68 SPECIAL FOCUS 1 ................................................................................................................................................. 71 Philippine tourism industry challenge .......................................................................................................... 71 SPECIAL FOCUS 2 ................................................................................................................................................. 77 Impact
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