Grizzly Bear Denning Habitat and Demographic Connectivity in Northern Idaho and Western Montana
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Authors Mike Bader, Independent Consultant, Ecological Research Services, Missoula, MT; [email protected] Paul Sieracki, Independent Consultant, Priest River, Idaho; [email protected] Author Contributions Study concept and design, literature review, funding acquisition, project supervision, manuscript preparation and layout: MB; ArcGIS, Maxent and R analyses: PS; Data curation: MB/PS; Model development: PS/MB; Methodology: PS/MB; Author Acknowledgments The authors thank W Kasworm, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and C Costello, Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks for providing den site data; T Manley for his photograph of a den site; the Flathead-Lolo- Bitterroot Citizen Task Force, Nimiipuu Protecting the Environment and the Friends of the Clearwater for financial support; FW Allendorf and BL Horejsi for reviews of the manuscript. Any mistakes in interpretation or assumptions are ours alone. This report was produced under contract with the Flathead-Lolo-Bitterroot Citizen Task Force. Suggested citation: Bader M, Sieracki, P. 2021. Grizzly bear denning habitat and demographic connectivity in northern Idaho and western Montana. FLBCTF Technical Report 02-21. Missoula, MT. 33p. Credits: cover art: Katmai National Park; page 1: Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee (IGBC); page 2: Tim Manley; page 3: IGBC; page 6: Glacier National Park; page 14: Keith Hammer; page 19: Wikitracks; page 21: Bob Clark; Page 25(1): Lolo National Forest, J. Ward; Page 25(2): Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes. Flathead-Lolo-Bitterroot Citizen Task Force P.O. Box 9254 Missoula, MT 59807 https://www.montanaforestplan.org/ GRIZZLY BEAR DENNING HABITAT AND DEMOGRAPHIC CONNECTIVITY IN NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA Mike Bader Wildlife Consultant Paul Sieracki Geospatial Analyst/Wildlife Biologist Abstract––GRIZZLY BEARS (Ursus arctos) are protected in the contiguous United States under the federal Endangered Species Act. The conservation strategy for the species encourages population connectivity between isolated Grizzly Bear Recovery Areas through Demographic Connectivity Areas. Another goal is reestablishment of a breeding population in the Bitterroot ecosystem through natural immigration. Using the locations of 362 verified grizzly bear den sites, Maxent species distribution modeling and resource selection functions, we predicted 21,091 km2 (8143 mi2) of suitable denning habitats. Terrain features, distance to roads and land cover best explained suitable denning habitats in northern Idaho and western Montana. The results support the demographic model for population connectivity and independent of other factors there is suitable denning habitat for hundreds of grizzly bears in the Bitterroot analysis area. We suggest additions to the Bitterroot Grizzly Bear Recovery Area and that more effective motorized access management be applied to demographic connectivity areas. Key words: grizzly bear, denning, den sites, selection, demographic connectivity, dispersal, Bitterroot ecosystem, northern Rockies. Grizzly Denning and Demographic Connectivity 1 Denning behavior in GRIZZLY BEARS (Ursus arctos) is thought to be an evolutionary adaptation to long winter periods where natural foods are unavailable. The vast majority of dens are excavated and seldom re-used and den site selection and construction are improved through learning and experience (Craighead and Craighead 1972, Jonkel 1987). In colder regions grizzly bears may remain in the den for up to six months with cubs born inside the den. Grizzly bears enter a deep sleep during hibernation but can easily be disturbed and aroused while in the den (Craighead and Craighead 1972). Linnell et al. (2000) review the denning process finding in general that bears select for steep slopes from 30-50o with stable snow conditions and 1-2km from roads and human habitations while avoiding valley bottoms, exposed ridge tops and high peaks. Human activities within 200m of an occupied den can cause physiological changes such as Figure 1. A female grizzly in northwest Montana at the entrance to her increased heart and breathing rate, den. wakefulness and even den abandonment leading to increased cub mortality (Linnell et al. 2000). Other causes of den abandonment include collapse of the den roof, excessive moisture within the den and snow melt entering through the roof. Mid-winter den abandonment can be catastrophic for the bears involved. Craighead and Craighead (1972) observed that human intrusion during the denning excavation and pre-entry period could also have critical impacts. The selection by grizzly bears for steep and remote den sites is likely an adaptation to seek greater security while stationary in the den and vulnerable to attacks by humans and other animals and thus providing a selective advantage. Steeper slopes tend to be well-drained and provide overhead soil insulation which is enhanced by digging the den under a tree. Aided by gravity, removal of excavated soil and rock away from the den entrance would be easier on steeper slopes. Approximately 50,000 grizzly bears once inhabited the western US states but between 1850- 1970 these were eliminated from the vast majority of the landscape until 1000 remained (Mattson and Merrill 2002). Isolation was one of the factors cited when the grizzly bear was listed in 1975 as a threatened species south of Canada under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Grizzly bears have since expanded their total numbers and distribution in response to recovery Grizzly Denning and Demographic Connectivity 2 efforts including the cessation of hunting, improved sanitation and road access management yet remain isolated as separate populations (USFWS 2021). Allendorf and Ryman (2002) estimate 5000 grizzly bears may be needed in a single population or metapopulation to ensure long-term viability. None of the current recovery areas are of sufficient geographic size to independently support that number of bears: the most recent population estimate for the US is 1800 (USFWS 2021). To achieve long term viability isolated populations must be linked while reestablishing a breeding population in north-central Idaho (Metzgar and Bader 1992, Allendorf et al. 2019, Allendorf 2020, Mattson 2021). The metapopulation has been defined as a collection of populations with some rate of interchange between them and the metacommunity has been defined as a set of local communities linked by dispersal or a “community of metapopulations” (Hanski and Gilpin 1991). Linkage of the isolated grizzly bear populations into a metapopulation would increase the probability of long- term survival (Allendorf et al. 2019). van Nouhuys (2016) wrote “Reserve design that is based in metapopulation ecology emphasizes networks of sites rather than isolated sites, with the implicit or explicit understanding that regional persistence of species will be greater in a network of patches within dispersal range than in isolated sites (unless very large).” The Conservation Strategy for Grizzly Bear in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE) (USFWS 2018) designated two Demographic Connectivity Areas (DCA) to provide habitat for resident female grizzly bears and connectivity between the NCDE, Cabinet-Yaak (CYE) and Bitterroot Grizzly Bear Recovery Areas (BE) as shown in Figure 2. Grizzly Denning and Demographic Connectivity 3 There are two habitat-based models for grizzly bear population connectivity. The male-mediated model (Peck et al. 2017) was investigated for its potential to support maintenance of genetic diversity in the Yellowstone population based on long distance dispersals of male grizzly bears from the NCDE. This genetic rescue model might work to prevent further loss of genetic diversity in the long-isolated Yellowstone population depending on whether the immigrants breed and the offspring survive to breed. The other is the demographic model based on “stepping stones” of secure suitable habitats that are occupied by resident female and male grizzly bears within known dispersal distances (Mattson et al. 1996). Due to the much shorter dispersal distance of female grizzly bears (McLelland and Hovey 2001, Proctor et al. 2004, Graves et al. 2014), rather than a sprint, this demographic model relies on multi- Figure 2. The northern Idaho and western Montana study area. year dispersals or a genetic relay. This gradual process points to wider linkage areas where females can reside to promote successful inter-subpopulation movement (Proctor et al. 2015). The male-mediated genetic rescue model is not applicable to the reestablishment of a breeding population in the Bitterroot ecosystem where there is no population to supplement or heterozygosity to maintain. Therefore, we evaluate and discuss our results within the context of the demographic model whose ideal performance would enable consistent flow and occupation of habitats between core populations and serve as the source of female grizzly bears into the Bitterroot ecosystem. By definition, residential occupancy requires availability of suitable habitats in all four seasons. Therefore, the presence and identification of primary denning habitats is central to the efficacy of the demographic model and essential to explaining landscape potential and design of bear Grizzly Denning and Demographic Connectivity 4 management units with large secure core areas and motorized access management to lower open road density in the intervening areas. Denning habitat for grizzly bears has not been previously analyzed across the northern Idaho- western Montana region.