OLDHAM's STRATEGY for the PROVISION of EDUCATION PLACES 2016

“A great place to learn”

OLDHAM’s STRATEGY FOR THE PROVISION OF EDUCATION PLACES 2016 - 2020

DATE VERSION SUMMARY OF CHANGES BY WHOM 01.02.2016 Initial draft 0.1 Updated to include feedback Gill Hoar 19.02.2016 Initial draft 0.7 Updated to include feedback Gill Hoar 19.02.2016 Draft 1.0 Conversion to Draft status Gill Hoar 23.03.2016 Draft 1.4 Organogram added Gill Hoar 15.04.2016 Final draft 2.0 Updates following final feedback Gill Hoar 18.04.201 Final draft 2.1 ToR for EPG Gill Hoar 20.04.2016 Final draft 2.2 Updated provider lists Gill Hoar 28.0.2016 Final draft 2.3 Amendments following EPG Gill Hoar

CONTENTS

Foreword Page 3 Introduction Page 4 Principles and local context Page 5 Needs analysis Page 6 Funding streams for capital works Page 7 Revenue Funding Implications Page 9 Decision making and governance Page 10 Variable over the lifetime of the Strategy Page 12 Glossary of terms Page 13 Appendix A: Schools in Oldham Page 16 Appendix B: Annual School Capacity Assessment 2015 Page 24 Appendix C: Pupil forecasting methodology Page 32 Appendix D: Decision Support Matrix Page 54 Appendix E: Draft Academy Conversion policy Page 60 Appendix F: Education Provision Group, Terms of Reference Page 61 Appendix G: Schemes considered as priority – January 2016 Page 66

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FOREWORD BY COUNCILLOR SHOAB AKHTAR, Cabinet member for Education and Skills

Oldham Council, along with many other local authorities nationally, is facing the significant challenge presented by the increase in demand for school places. The current pressure on primary school places is set to hit the secondary sector in 2016/17 and beyond.

The report of the Oldham Education & Skills Commission, “A self improving education system” was published in January 2015. It sets out the vision for the future of education in Oldham. “A good education system is crucial to the future success of Oldham. Whether it is top quality schools, excellent colleges or successful training providers, the town and its citizens need high education standards and a highly skilled workforce.” This is reinforced in the statement made by the leader of the Council; “To succeed we will have to move towards a culture where education is everyone‟s business.” Key to the delivery of the vision is the aim that all schools in Oldham are good schools serving their local communities.

Whilst schools have a high degree of autonomy in this regard, the way that schools are organised and the policies that the Council adopts play a fundamental role in this overarching aim. The government continues to articulate an urgent need to reform our school system to prevent the standard of education in the UK from falling further behind that of other countries and that it intends to create a more autonomous and diverse school system that offers parents choice and concentrates on improving standards. This strategic document provides the context and policy for the provision of education places in Oldham for children and young people aged 2 – 19.

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Councils have a statutory duty to ensure there are enough school places available to local children and young people. No other local or national body shares with them the duty to secure sufficient primary and secondary schools, although they increasingly have to work with schools and other partners to deliver the places needed.

1.2 This strategic document provides the context and policy for the provision of education places for children and young people aged 2 – 19. The information may prove useful for schools and education providers in the context of their own development planning.

1.3 Oldham Council, along with many other local authorities nationally, is facing the significant challenge presented by the increase in demand for primary school places. The current pressure on primary school places is set to hit the secondary sector in 2016/17 and beyond.

1.4 Future demand for school places is predicted using an agreed formula that takes account of birth rates, inward migration and proposed new housing. Additional primary school places have been created through a number of school expansion projects and the creation of a new three form entry primary school in the town centre. Current forecasts indicate that significant investment in the secondary schools‟ capital estate will be needed to meet a known shortfall in 2016/17 and 2017/18 in order to accommodate the increased numbers of students moving through from the primary phase. There will be a further predicted shortfall in the 2021 – 2014 period which will require further significant investment

1.5 In order to deliver its statutory responsibilities around the provision of school places, Oldham Council will seek to provide standardised design solutions based on the Education Funding Agency‟s (EFA) baseline template wherever possible, in order to minimise costs and timescales. The process to identify schools for expansion or new build projects will follow the published criteria set out at Appendix D of this document. Oldham Council will always take governing body views into account when reaching decisions.

1.6 The report of the Oldham Education and Skills Commission (OESC) sets out the vision for the future of education in Oldham. The recommendations of the published report will always be given consideration within the decision making process for creating additional school places.

1.7 The Regional Schools Commissioner (RSC) for Lancashire and West Yorkshire works with school leaders to promote and monitor academies and free schools and is responsible for decisions regarding new academy and free school sponsors, approving new academies in the area and intervening in underperforming academies and free schools.

1.8 The population growth forecast across the Greater Manchester authorities will continue to create increased demand and consequent pressure on school places. Consideration is being given to the development of a GM pupil forecasting model as part of the proposed GM Education, Employability and Early Years Devolution

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Programme. The aim would be to consolidate fragmented pupil place planning processes and school estate capital.

2. PRINCIPLES AND LOCAL CONTEXT

2.1 The report of the OESC, “A self improving education system” was published in January 2015; available on the Oldham Council website: www.oldham.gov.uk. It sets out the vision for the future of education in Oldham: “A good education system is crucial to the future success of Oldham. Whether it is top quality schools, excellent colleges or successful training providers, the town and its citizens need high education standards and a highly skilled workforce.” This is reinforced in the statement made by the leader of the Council; “To succeed we will have to move towards a culture where education is everyone‟s business.” Key to the delivery of this vision is the aim that all schools in Oldham are good schools serving their local communities. Whilst schools have a high degree of autonomy in this regard, the way that schools are organised and the policies that the Council adopts play a fundamental role in this overarching aim.

2.2 Whilst there is mention of all phases in this document, the focus is with school provision. Its purpose is to help the Council and other stakeholders to understand the projected need for school places in Oldham. Information relating to the provision of early years education and 14-19 education are covered in other documents which can be found on the Oldham Council website: www.oldham.gov.uk.

2.3 When seeking to manage the demand and supply of school places in Oldham, Oldham Council will take into account the diverse range of provision and educational organisation arrangements that are working well. When new or changed provision is considered the Council will seek to influence any proposals to secure high quality educational provision for its citizens. The Council works with all education institutions, the RSC and academy and free school sponsors to secure high standards ensuring parents have a real choice in selecting appropriate provision for their children. The current school and college estate is shown at Appendix A.

2.4 The White Paper, “Educational Excellence Everywhere”, published in March 2016, sets out the current government‟s vision for schools in England and its plans for the next 5 years, building on and extending existing reforms to achieve educational excellence everywhere. The paper is built upon the five guiding principles of the DfE‟s strategy, concluding that in order to put the principles into practice, it will move to a system where every school is an academy.

2.5 The DRAFT Oldham Council policy for Academy Conversion (final policy due June 2016), Appendix E, sets out the council‟s position when a school converts to academy status. Academies become independent of local authorities and conversion leads to changes in responsibilities, finance and working relations between local authorities and academies. The policy and guidance outline the approach that will be taken by the Local Authority and offers practical advice and guidance on how governing bodies should approach the issue of conversion and how the Local Authority (LA) will manage the conversion process.

2.6 When a school converts to an academy it receives its funding direct from the

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Education Funding Agency (EFA): the Dedicated School Grant (DSG) received by Oldham is consequently reduced. The Local Authority will lose £87 per pupil based on current funding rates as a result of a school converting to an academy. In real terms this means that a one form entry school converting to an academy will result in an estimated reduction in Oldham‟s revenue funding received from the Educational Services Grant (ESG) of £18.2k.

2.7 Free Schools are funded by the government in the same way as mainstream schools and academies. However in the first year of opening the EFA retains the funding and allocates it direct to the free school. In the second year of opening the funding is added to the LA DSG allocation and recouped under the same process as for academies. This means that LAs provide an individual schools budget (ISB) for primary and secondary schools on the authority proforma tool (APT) that they submit to the EFA in January of each year, as they do for an academy. Growing free schools and academies create pressures for the LA as the funding allocated in the 2nd year of opening would not reflect any expected increase in pupils in the September of that year as the funding is based on the pupil numbers in school submitted the previous October. This pressure would continue until the school is full and all pupils appear on the school census.

3. NEEDS ANALYSIS

3.1 The school capacity survey (SCAP) is a statutory data collection that all local authorities must complete every year. The 2015 SCAP return and commentary is at Appendix B. LAs must complete statutory collections by law unless they have a very good reason not to. SCAP is based on data collected in the January Schools Census about:  school capacity (ie the number of places and pupils in a school)  pupil forecasts (ie an estimation of how many pupils there will be in future)  capital spend (ie the money schools and local authorities spend on their buildings and facilities)

3.2 The Department for Education (DfE) and the EFA use the data to identify areas where there many not be enough school places and also use projections of pupil numbers to calculate the basic needs funding local authorities receive to provide enough school places to meet future demand.

3.3 Oldham Council has developed an agreed forecasting methodology, set out at Appendix C. The forecast is refreshed on a termly basis to reflect the latest trends and maintain accurate data.

3.4 The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) is an evidence based methodology to support the LA‟s decision making process for school expansion projects. The DSM, set out at Appendix D, will ensure that the process is open, fair and transparent and that decisions are made consistently based on evidenced criteria thresholds. At the pre-decision consultative stage, schools within the locality will be approached to gain their views on any proposals.

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4. FUNDING STREAMS FOR CAPITAL WORKS

4.1 Capital expenditure can be funded from a number of different sources, the most common of which are expanded on in further detail below.

4.2 Basic Needs Funding

On an annual basis the DfE awards Basic Needs funding to individual LA areas. This is a sum based upon the perceived need for additional school places calculated from the SCAP data. Although non-ring fenced this annual grant is intended to be used by local authorities to provide additional school places. Basic needs funding, whilst being an annual award, is notified 3 years in advance to help local authorities to plan and prioritise their capital investment programmes.

4.3 Free Schools

Free schools are schools set up by an organization or a group of individuals, funded by the government but not controlled by the local authority. Tthe creation of free schools is one of a number of central government initiatives to widen parental choice and improve educational standards.

Under a government initiated programme to provide additional school places and to provide an alternative model to local authority controlled schools the EFA run a programme to create new free schools.

When considering the need for additional school places in the borough it may be possible, subject to elected members‟ agreement, to work with the EFA to promote the creation of one or more free schools to create additional places. The capital funding and construction of free schools is normally centrally run by the EFA and any funding spent by the EFA under this route is likely to be reflected in basic need funding awarded to the local authority.

4.4 Prudential borrowing / Council capital budget

Should the Council consider the provision of additional school places or physical improvements in existing buildings to be a priority, and for which there is not sufficient external funding, members could decide to approve use of council resources.

Sources of council funding include:  Capital receipts – generated from the sale of council owned land or property;  Prudential Borrowing – which would be paid for in future years over the life of the asset and create a charge annually to the revenue budget.

4.5 One off government grant processes

On an occasional basis central government organise programmes or discretionary grant processes which are directed towards the funding of projects related to school building.

In recent years these grant schemes have included:-  Priority School Building Programme – rebuilding old school buildings  Targeted Basic Need Programme – creating additional places over and

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above basic need to reflect specific population pressures and bulges  Priority School Building Programme Phase 2 – addressing condition issues by either refurbishment or rebuilding

Whilst Oldham has historically been relatively successful in applying to these programmes they are not a reliable source of funding and as such cannot be relied upon as part of a sustainable strategy. Officers will however through their best endeavours ensure that if and when should they arise in the future, the funding schemes will be reviewed and discussed with members along with the list of potential projects to determine whether any applications should be made and if so for which schemes.

4.6 If a school under local authority control elects to convert to Academy status there will under certain circumstances be a need for the carrying out of capital works. The need for and the extent of these works will be evaluated in line with the “Academy Conversion Process Paper”. Works will not be immediately accepted as being necessary upon a school proposing conversion.

4.7 The Capital cost of any works associated with Academy conversion will need to be funded from existing Council budgets so will form an in year budget pressure.

All proposed capital expenditure is initially presented for approval to the Capital Investment Programme Board (CIPB). Depending on the level of the resources required, approval of an allocation of capital resource may then be via delegated authority or by Cabinet. The Education Capital Programme 2016 to 2021 is shown in the table below.

The Education Capital Programme 2016 to 2021 is shown in the table below.

Schools Capital Programme – 2016/17 and 2017/18 Budge Budg t et Programme Project 2016 2017 £k £k Clarksfield School - complete rewire - Essential 100 Capital - Asset Condition (Mar'14) Essential Condition Works (Nov 2012) - Royton & Mgt - Education 571 Premises Crompton Secondary (Funded via Friezland Jnr/Inf School - External works; heat 100 Schools emitters; doors & frames. Condition Mayfield Jnr/Inf School - External drainage; 94 Allocation - renewal of fixed furniture/joinery in classrooms. maintenance Royton & Crompton Sec School (OCL) - Full 130 works approved Astro – pitch replacement. through Council‟s Thornham St James C.E. School - Gas 210 Corporate distribution & mains replacement. Property function) Whitegate End Jnr/Inf - External and Internal 141 works (inc replacement of heat emitters) Building Schools for the General Provision 63 Future Devolved Devolved Capital General Provision 1,197 Capital Basic Need 14,13 Education Basic Need General Provision 5 1 SCHOOL PLACES- Greenfield Primary- 4,513 1,274

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temporary classroom & playing fields block SCHOOL PLACES- New 3FE Build Primary 2,742 School- former Grange school site SCHOOL PLACES- Oasis Limeside / Oasis 540 Academy- internals, classrooms, kitchen & dining Capital - CYPF 2YO- General provision 167 Free School Meals- Greenfield Primary 115 Schools - Greenfield Primary School -temp Kitchen pod Primary 27 and temp classroom Schools New Saddleworth School New Build (WH Shaw Site) 1,745 Build 15,40 Total 12,461 5

5. REVENUE FUNDING IMPLICATIONS

5.1 Where a free school is a Special School the top up funding (i.e. the amount above the per-place rate of £10,000) is funded from the commissioning LA‟s DSG. The current Oldham top up rate ranges from £2,800 per place to

£35,000 dependant upon the severity and complexity of the young person‟s

special educational needs. The place funding for Special Free schools is funded for 2 years by the EFA before the funding is transferred to the Local Authority. If the Special School is still growing the LA funds the additional places from its DSG even though funding for these places will never be received in the DSG. There is currently no growth in the high needs block of the DSG so the LA will be required to fund the £10,000 per place for any growing Special School whether it is an academy or not.

5.2 If the Council builds a new school it will open as an Academy. In this case the Council will have to fund start-up costs for the new school from the DSG. The start-up costs will consist of:

 resources needed for the new school to open and function from its first

day

 Pre opening costs for staffing, recruitment etc

5.3 Where there is a significant growth in pupil numbers as a result of the local authority‟s duty under section 13(1) of the 1996 Act to secure sufficient primary and secondary education places are available to meet the needs of the population of their area, the Local Authority can retain a growth fund from the DSG. Oldham‟s criteria reflect actual pupil number increases above capacity of the school and schools are funded on pupil numbers above capacity multiplied by the Basic Amount per Pupil. The LA will not receive any additional funding in the DSG for the actual pupils in the financial year as the DSG settlement will have been based on the October census and will not be re-determined in that financial year. This will be the same for new pupils entering reception each September and will be replicated for the next 4 or 6 years, therefore funding for these new pupils will have to be met from Oldham‟s existing DSG. The cost each year for 10 new primary aged pupils

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for September – March would be £17,591 + additional allocations for deprivation & SEN (if applicable).

6. DECISION MAKING AND GOVERNANCE

6.1 Education provision in Oldham is kept under review by the Education Provision Group. Terms of Reference for the EPG are set out at Annex 3. The main function of the group is to make recommendations on the annual schedule of proposed capital investments consequent to completion of the needs analysis using the agreed forecasting methodology and by application of the matrix to determine demand and supply priorities.

6.2 Officers will establish and update an annual schedule of priority for Capital schemes based on:  Availability of suitable land and buildings  Matrix of school demand vs. places provided  Priority maintenance schedule  Pupil locations and anticipated locations (normally illustrated on dot maps but additional methods of presentation are considered)  Pupil number predictions  Availability of readily developed schemes.

6.3 A prioritised schedule of education capital investment projects will be prepared and updated by officers on an annual basis looking at predicted spend over the immediate programme, the three future years that basic need funding is visible and into the medium term (3-7 years).

6.4 The annual schedule of proposed capital investments will be initially proposed to, and agreed by, the EPG before being presented to the Capital Investment Programme Board for discussion, and where appropriate, incorporation into the Council Capital Programme via presentation to Cabinet.

To permit the Council to maintain an annual schedule of proposals a number of schemes will be developed to be “shelf edge ready” so that proposals can be advanced for either Council or grant funding opportunities.

6.5 To enable officers to maximize opportunities available to create and fund new projects to satisfy demand a number of enabling factors will be required to be agreed:  Establish an annual revenue budget to support development of scheme proposals ahead of allocation to capital programme  Development of specific school building condition reporting within the Concerto asset management system  Development of specific schools standards and admissions data reporting tools within the Corvu business intelligence management system.

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Capital Elected Investment members Programme Board

Technical advisory group Education Pupil making recommendations Provision to CIPB and elected forecasting members Group group

Education Economic and Early Pupil forecast re-freshed development following termly school Years division census data reporting division

Potential school property Corporate Planning and requirements to be held property infrastructure under regular consideration section section

GOVERNANCE AND ACCOUNTABILITY FOR SCHOOL ORGANISATION IN OLDHAM Page 11 of 66

7. Variables over the lifetime of the Strategy

7.1 Oldham LA has developed a robust method for forecasting future pupil population. Our current priorities for use of Basic Need allocations and Targeted Basic Need projects are based on the local forecast. Any future GM forecast could potentially impact on the programme subject to a review of priorities across GM. Priorities must therefore remain under review.

7.2 Inward migration has been increasing for some time, creating additional demand particularly in the primary sector which will move through to the secondary sector in 2017/18 and beyond. Recent investigations have revealed that the increase is unlikely to reduce and may continue to rise. This will be reflected in the annual pupil place forecast completed in July each year. As the Education Funding Agency allocates basic need funding based on this data it is vital that we keep abreast of local and regional changes and adjust our forecasts accordingly.

7.3 Indications are that there will be an increase in the number of large family houses as part of new development, attracting families with multiple siblings requiring several places in different year groups in the same school. In order to meet this type of demand it is necessary to carry a reasonable level of surplus capacity in order to avoid siblings being split. The current level of surplus would not meet this level of demand, but the planned surplus of 5 – 8% would make it more likely. However, if demand continues to increase, outstripping planned expansion of the school estate, the planned surplus may decrease resulting in continued pressure.

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GLOSSARY

Academy

Academy schools are state-funded schools in England which are directly funded by the Department for Education and independent of local authority control.

Basic needs funding

On an annual basis the DfE / EFA notify local authorities of the monies they will receive for the next 3 years to provide for an anticipated increases in pupil place requirements. This funding whilst being awarded in relation to pupil place provision this funding is not specifically ring fenced to the provision of places.

Capital funding

The cost of providing buildings and major elements of expenditure e.g. fixed play equipment, replacement boilers, major repairs to buildings.

Concerto

A software system used to manage and monitor assets.

Corvu

A software system used to manage and report on projects.

Department for education

The Department for Education is responsible for education and children‟s services in England. It works to achieve a highly educated society in which opportunity is equal for children and young people, no matter what their background or family circumstances.

Early Years education

The full range of provision, activities and experiences aimed at children prior to their entry into primary school, encompassing education and wider child development, as well as childcare.

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Education Funding Agency

The EFA is an Executive Agency of the Department for Education (DfE), responsible for the operation of the education capital and revenue funding system and the delivery of capital programmes.

Free school

A Free School in England is a type of Academy, a non-profit-making, independent, State-funded school which is free to attend but which is not controlled by a Local Authority.

Oldham Education and Skills Commission

The OESC was established in 2014 to help raise local standards and aspirations so that every child can achieve their full potential. Reporting in January 2015, it was an independent body, tasked with identifying areas of best practice and underachievement, investigating the challenges faced and developing a path to future success.

Post 16 education

Education or training provided in a school or further education (FE) colleges, not limited to academic study and providing high-quality technical and professional education and training for young people.

Primary phase

Statutory education provision for children aged 4 to 11 years

Regional Schools Commissioner

RSCs are responsible for approving new academies and intervening in underperforming academies and free schools in their area. They act on behalf of the Secretary of State for Education. The RSCs are accountable to the Schools Commissioner and are supported by a board of 6 to 8 experienced academy headteachers and other sector leaders.

Revenue funding

The cost of running schools in day to day expenses.

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School Capacity survey

Annual data return to the Department for Education setting out LA pupil forecasts, capital projects and proposed capital allocations

School census

The school census is a statutory census that takes place during the autumn, spring, and summer terms. La, maintained schools and academies must complete statutory censuses by law unless there‟s a good reason not to.

Secondary phase

Statutory education provision for children aged 11 to 16 years

Published admission number

The number of pupils that a school plans to admit in each relevant age group.

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APPENDIX A: SCHOOLS IN OLDHAM

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APPENDIX B: SCAP DATA 2015 (including commentary)

Forecasts return

Planning Area Code 3530001 Chadderton Primary Academic year Primary

Forecasts Reception 1 2 3 4 5 6 2015/16 585 602 613 573 545 563 547 2016/17 599 595 612 622 573 552 571 2017/18 598 609 606 621 622 580 560 2018/19 603 608 619 614 621 629 588 2019/20 600 613 619 628 614 628 637

Planning Area Code 3530002 East Oldham Primary Academic year Primary

Forecasts Reception 1 2 3 4 5 6 2015/16 670 701 700 600 578 556 562 2016/17 685 688 717 626 615 589 566 2017/18 686 702 704 641 641 626 598 2018/19 683 703 719 630 656 651 635 2019/20 691 701 720 643 644 667 660

Planning Area Code 3530003 Failsworth & Holinwood Primary Academic year Primary

Forecasts Reception 1 2 3 4 5 6 2015/16 498 491 496 516 482 513 504 2016/17 503 515 499 504 533 493 529 2017/18 504 520 523 507 521 544 508 2018/19 506 522 529 532 524 532 560 2019/20 507 524 530 537 549 535 548

Planning Area Code 3530004 Lees & Saddleworth Primary Academic year Primary Forecasts Reception 1 2 3 4 5 6 2015/16 450 444 456 461 448 427 426 2016/17 454 459 451 464 465 454 433 2017/18 456 463 466 458 468 472 460 2018/19 466 466 470 474 463 475 478 2019/20 459 476 473 478 478 469 481

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Planning Area Code 3530005 Royton & Shaw Primary Academic year Primary

Forecasts Reception 1 2 3 4 5 6 2015/16 556 558 546 548 531 531 513 2016/17 563 563 566 551 556 539 538 2017/18 568 570 571 571 559 564 546 2018/19 563 575 578 576 579 567 570 2019/20 559 571 583 583 584 587 574

Planning Area Code 3530006 West Oldham Primary Academic year Primary

Forecasts Reception 1 2 3 4 5 6 2015/16 641 700 717 800 780 786 779 2016/17 657 685 745 851 840 814 826 2017/18 653 701 730 883 892 875 855 2018/19 649 697 747 865 925 928 918 2019/20 651 692 743 885 907 962 972

Planning Area Code 3530007 Oldham Secondary Academic year Secondary

Forecasts 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 2015/16 3222 3017 2988 2985 2939 445 453 2016/17 3418 3278 3087 3053 3033 450 442 2017/18 3551 3474 3350 3152 3100 464 447 2018/19 3616 3607 3546 3415 3199 475 461 2019/20 3840 3672 3680 3613 3462 490 471 2020/21 3960 3892 3741 3742 3654 530 486 2021/22 4022 4012 3961 3803 3783 560 526

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Schools Capacity Survey 2015

Local Authority Commentary

Local Authority Name Oldham LA Local Authority Number 353 Contact Names Paula Green/Gill Hoar Tel. 0161 770 3158/3150

1. General LA overview indicating LA wide trends (Primary and Secondary age) The general population in the borough has increased in the last 5 years. For schools it means the number of children needing a school place at the start of the academic year is also increasing. In Year transfers have also increased year on year since 2011. This is largely due to the number of children and young people moving in to the borough from abroad. In the main the above families are moving in to council owned and private rented housing in two of the six planning areas; East Oldham and West Oldham.

Total mainstream pupils aged 4 – 11 at January Census 2014 was 22, 793. At January Census 2015 this number has risen to 23, 181. An increase of 2% in 12 months. Total capacity in the primary sector is 23, 720 places. There are currently 305 empty places. The majority of these places are in year 5 and year 6 classes. There are no empty places in year 1 and year 2, throughout the borough. Total pupils aged 11 - 16 at January Census 2014 was 14, 560. At January Census 2015 this number has increased to 14, 589. A very slight increase over the 12 month period. Total capacity in the secondary sector is 15, 809 places. There are currently 1066 empty places. It is expected that the primary bulge will roll through to the secondary sector in 2017/18. There has been minimal variance in the Secondary allocation over the last 5 years;

September No. of pupils offered on National Offer day 2011 2927 2012 3004 2013 2966 2014 2965 2015 2954

There are currently 100 Y7 vacancies for September 2015. These vacancies are at the 3 fresh start academies; Oldham Academy North, Oasis Academy and Waterhead Academy.

Allocation to the Reception cohort in the same years is below;

September No. of pupils offered on National Offer day 2011 3210 2012 3330 2013 3361 2014 3322 2015 3246

There are currently 126 reception vacancies for September 2015. These vacancies are across all

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planning areas, with the exception of East Oldham and Saddleworth/Lees (these 2 planning areas have no empty places).

2. Factors affecting overall LA pupil numbers e.g. migration, housing development, live births. For cross boundary movement please identify the other local authorities involved and the scales of places affected The number of Fair Access applications has increased year on year since 2010/11. The largest volumes of Fair Access pupils include new arrivals in Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 4 with no command of the English language and those that have been out of education for more than two months.

Primary; Number of FA applications; Secondary; Number of FA applications; 2010/11 71 2010/11 96 2011/12 174 2011/12 120 2012/13 270 2012/13 184 2013/14 412 2013/14 183 2014/15 553 2014/15 214

Primary FA numbers have increased by 34% year on year and Secondary FA numbers have increased by 17% year on year.

As of 2010/11 all requests for in year transfers have been coordinated by the LA. Below shows primary and secondary transfers processed from this date (where the pupil has gone on to the roll of an Oldham school mid-year).

Primary; Number of transfers; Secondary; Number of transfers; 2010/11 574 2010/11 193 2011/12 764 2011/12 305 2012/13 988 2012/13 520 2013/14 1259 2013/14 449 2014/15 1517 2014/15 476

Secondary in year transfers have remained stable over the last two years, however primary in year transfers have increased year on year by 20%.

Cross border movement; Oldham LA is historically a net importer of pupils and this trend continues. Secondary allocation 2015; 130 Oldham residents were offered out of borough schools and 258 out of borough pupils were offered Oldham schools - +128. Primary allocation; 43 Oldham residents were offered out of borough schools and 101 out of borough pupils were offered Oldham schools - +58.

Housing Development;

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The Council has increased the disposal of Council owned land in order to accelerate the development of new family housing in the Borough. The strategic aim is to increase the number of higher quality new homes for sale in order to widen choice. This strategy is demonstrating success with over 300 new homes due to start on site within the next 12 months. This approach supports the wider Greater Manchester aim of increasing the number of new homes across GM by 10,000 per annum. In order to deliver this magnitude of growth, a £300 million Housing Investment Fund has been established with Treasury funding with an initial £40 million draw down in 2015/16. The initial ‘call for projects’ ahead of formal Fund launch has resulted in a scheme for Oldham being proposed which is currently not on our pipeline list. This demonstrates that the existence of the Fund will drive accelerated residential growth across GM and in Oldham. Going forward, the Council is identifying further sites for residential growth – both in Council and private ownership.

3. Summary of PRIMARY AGE pupil places in individual planning areas experiencing pressure on places either currently or projected and for which action is required to address.

Total number of planning areas across the Local Authority. 7 Planning area name / ID Overview (NB the cells will expand) a. Chadderton There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. 14 of which are in the Chadderton collaborative.

There is pressure on places in Chadderton; Although there are current reception places, there are no current places in year 1 – year 6 in the collaborative. Schools in Chadderton have to go above their planned admission number for families moving in to the area in year 1 – year 6.

Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what date. The expansion of 3 Chadderton Schools; Yew Tree C P, PAN increase from 60 to 90 and Bare Trees C P, PAN increase from 70- 90 from September 2013 & Mills Hill C P, PAN increase from 60 – 90 from September 2014. b. East Oldham There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. None of which are in the East Oldham collaborative.

There is pressure on school places in East Oldham. There is only one school with KS1 vacancies in this collaborative. There are enough places in KS2. Schools in East Oldham have to go above their planned admission number for families moving in to the area in KS1.

Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what date. The expansion of an East Oldham School – Watersheddings C P, PAN increase from 30 to 45 from September 2014.

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c. West Oldham There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. 44 of which are in the West Oldham collaborative.

There is pressure on school places in all of West Oldham. There are no current places in Reception to year 4 in West Oldham. There are some places in year 5 and year 6. Schools in West Oldham have to go above their planned admission number for families moving in to the area in reception – year 4. Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what date. There is a new 3 form entry primary school to be built in West Oldham. This build has recently been agreed by Oldham LA Cabinet and work will commence imminently with the school opening in September 2016.

The expansion of a West Oldham School - St Hilda’s C E, PAN increase from 45 to 60 from September 2014. d. Royton/Shaw There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. 50 of which are in the Royton and Shaw collaborative.

There is pressure on school places in Royton/Shaw. There are no places in year 1 and year 2. Other year groups do have some spaces. Schools in Royton/Shaw have to go above their planned admission number for families moving in to the area in year 1 and year 2.

Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what date. The expansion of a School in Shaw – East Crompton St George’s C E, PAN increase from 30 to 60 from September 2014. e. Failsworth/Hollinwood There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. 18 of which are in the Failsworth/Hollinwood collaborative.

There are current spaces in reception, year 3 and year 5. There are no places in year 1, year 2, year 4 or year 6. Schools have to go above their planned admission number for families moving in to the area in these year groups.

The expansion of a school in Hollinwood – Oasis Limeside Academy,

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PAN increase from 30 to 60 from September 2015. f. Saddleworth/Lees There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. None of which are in the Saddleworth and Lees collaborative.

There are currently no places in year 1 – year 3. There are some places in the other year groups. Schools have to go above their planned admission number for families moving in to the area in year 1 – year 3.

Funding has been agreed to expand a School in Saddleworth for September 2016/2017. Feasibility tests currently underway. Discussions are ongoing with Greenfield C P. They have admitted 10 above PAN for reception 2013, 2014 and reception 2015, however this is not an agreed proposal as yet. It is planned that their PAN will increase from 30 to 60 in September 2017.

4. Summary of SECONDARY AGE pupil places in individual planning areas experiencing pressure on places either currently or projected and for which action is required to address.

Planning area name / ID Overview (NB the cells will expand) a. All Oldham In KS3 there is capacity at Collective Spirit Free School, Failsworth, Newman R C, The Radclyffe and the 3 fresh start academies; Oasis, The Oldham Academy North and Waterhead.

In KS4 there are vacancies in most schools throughout the borough.

There will be a forecast shortage of places in the Secondary sector by 2017. An increase of 1FE was planned for Saddleworth School within the Oldham BSF programme. Following the termination of the programme a successful application was made under the PSBP, which will enable Oldham to address the forecast shortfall of place in the Saddleworth area.

The basic needs funding allocation for 2017/2018 is ring fenced for a new build secondary school to address the predicted place shortfall in this sector. This will be situated in East or West Oldham.

Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what date. The expansion of Blue Coat School from September 2014 – PAN increase from 212 to 240.

PAN increase at Crompton House School from September 2015 – PAN increase from 195 to 223.

PAN increase at Collective Spirit from September 2015 – PAN increase

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from 80 to 90.

The expansion of Saddleworth School from September 2017 – PAN increase from 270 to 300.

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APPENDIX C: PUPIL FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

Pupil Projections

Oldham Council

Morgan Marshall Business Intelligence Officer

July 2015

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1 Overview

The purpose of the report is to provide a briefing on the processes, base data, and methodology used to help in the development and calculation of projected pupil numbers for Oldham. As well as giving an indication of where there will be pressure on school places in the future.

The purpose of forecasting pupil numbers is to satisfy statutory obligations to meet Basic Need (demand for additional school places) and to assess the extent to which a surplus or deficit of places is likely to occur in the future. The DfE requires 5 year forecasts for primary and 7 year forecast for secondary. The DfE only provides „guidance‟ on the creation of a pupil forecasting model. As a result the forecasting methodologies, data inputs, choice of base geography, and assumptions, vary between local authorities. Although there are differences Oldham‟s approach is similar to other local authorities.

The Oldham pupil forecasting model is based on a cohort survival principle, i.e. the Percentage of each year group that "survives" to the next year. This uses a weighted average of cohort survival going back through time, with most recent figures having a higher weighting.

The model captures demographic change and retention, cross boundary movement, and inward migration. The 2015 update to the model has used new sources of data in places where it may be necessary to account for additional expected changes in school population, but all forecasts have a consistent basis with previous overall methodology.

2 Context

School rolls have been rising and continue to rise across Oldham, and this is putting pressure on the provision of school places across the Borough. This pressure is now being felt and demand for primary school places have grown considerably, by 11%, in the last 5 years. In year transfers to primary schools have increased since 2010 an average 20% year on year, and primary school Fair Access applications have similarly increased an average 17% year on year, putting increased pressure on planning school places.

Nationally the pattern of demand for pupil places in England has been changing. In July 2014, the Department for Education (DfE) released its latest set of national pupil projections. Since July 2012 there has been the first increase in national primary pupil numbers since the 1990s. Between 2014 and 2023, pupil numbers in maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools are projected to increase by 9%. Increases in primary pupil numbers are projected to continue rising to levels not seen since the 1970s. The numbers of secondary pupil by 2023 is projected to be 17% higher compared to 2014, after an initial decline until 2015, after which the increase in primary pupil numbers will start to flow through to secondary schools.

The total pupils on roll across primary and secondary schools were 37,774 at the January School Census 2015. This was an increase of 2.2% from the previous 12 months. Similarly the largest increase (3.4%) in pupil numbers over the last 5 years occurred between 2014 and 2015 in the primary sector. The number of secondary pupils, which had historically been in decline, showed the first increase in numbers in the last 12 months, which is similar to the national projections.

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Change in the Numbers of Pupils on Roll Year on Year in the January School Census

5 yr 5 yr 5 yr Year Primary YoY Secondary YoY Total YoY Increase Increase Increase 2011 21,077 0.7% 14,929 -0.7% 36,006 0.1% 2012 21,448 1.8% 14,801 -0.9% 36,249 0.7% 2013 21,848 1.9% 14,682 -0.8% 36,530 0.8% 2014 22,427 2.7% 14,540 -1.0% 36,967 1.2% 2015 23,181 3.4% 10.7% 14,593 0.4% -2.9% 37,774 2.2% 5.0%

3 Previous Projection Accuracy

A review of the accuracy of previous projections was undertaken to inform the production of the new series of projections. By doing this, inconsistencies or problems with the previous projections can be identified and corrected before the new projections are produced.

The table below shows the 2014-15 pupil numbers that were projected in previous years, up to five years ago. These projections were made in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The percentage differences between the projections and the actual January 2015 rolls are relatively small over the five years, the projections were fairly accurate. However, the model from further ago is more inaccurate, as expected, and under projected primary pupils and over predicted secondary pupils.

Accuracy of the Model from Previous Years

Accuracy Predicting 2014-15 Actual Primary Secondary Pri/Sec 2014 Estimate -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 2013 Estimate 0.4% -0.6% 0.0% 2012 Estimate -3.1% 2.4% -0.9% 2011 Estimate -4.3% 2.7% -1.5% 2010 Estimate -4.9% 4.3% -1.2%

The table below shows how accurately each model predicted one year ahead. The table below shows the model from 2014 predicted most accurately for both primary and secondary, with 0.1% error, and was very accurate indeed. Additionally the graph shows the prediction for pupil numbers across each year group was also very good, although, the model marginally under-predicted primary in Reception, Year: 1, 2 4 and 5 (between 0.1% and 0.5%) and secondary pupils in years 8, 9 and 10 in the range of 0.4% to 1.2%. The last two years of secondary are harder to predict; the model under-predicted Year 12 and 13 by 0.7% and 5.4% respectively

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Accuracy of the Model Year on Year

Primary Secondary Pri/Sec Actual 2014-15 23,181 15,511 38,692 Forecast from 2014 23,149 15,497 38,646 % difference -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% Actual 2013-14 22,704 15,448 38,152 Forecast from 2013 22,747 15,392 38,139 % difference 0.2% -0.4% 0.0% Actual 2012-13 22,124 15,608 37,732 Forecast from 2012 22,085 15,994 38,079 % difference -0.2% 2.5% 0.9% Actual 2011-12 21,716 15,699 37,415 Forecast from 2011 21,657 16,145 37,802 % difference -0.3% 2.8% 1.0% Actual 2010-11 21,329 15,938 37,267 Forecast from 2010 21,416 16,357 37,773 % difference 0.4% 2.6% 1.4%

2014 Forecast for 2014-15 compared to 2014-15 Actual (Jan 2015 PLASC), by Year Groups

3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 Actual 2014-15 2,900 2014 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

How well the model predicted primary pupil numbers in the planning areas was also evaluated. The two graphs below illustrate this. The 2014 model under predicted the numbers by a very small margin, and over predicted Saddleworth and Lees by 1%. The model from 2013 shows a greater degree of inaccuracy predicting further forward by area, with a large over-prediction of 6.8% in Chadderton.

The smaller the area covered by the projection, the more difficult it is to make an accurate projection. Primary planning area projections are much more difficult to produce accurately, than a projection for the Borough as a whole. The smaller the area more significant variations between forecast numbers and actual numbers may be. Accurate projection of pupil numbers can be made

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more difficult by one-off events, which result in a lot of pupil movement between schools, such as a new housing development or the merging of schools.

2014 forecast for 2014/15 compared with 2014/15 actual, by Primary Planning Area

West Oldham Primary, 0.2% Royton & Shaw Primary, -0.5% Lees & Saddleworth Primary, 1.0% Failsworth & Holinwood Primary, - 0.4% East Oldham Primary, -0.9% Chadderton Primary, -0.1%

-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

2013 forecast for 2014/15 compared with 2014/15 actual, by Primary Planning Area

West Oldham Primary, -0.8% Royton & Shaw Primary, 0.0% Lees & Saddleworth Primary, 0.3% Failsworth & Holinwood Primary, 0.1% East Oldham Primary, -3.3% Chadderton Primary, 6.8%

-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

Producing pupil number projections is not an exact science. Projections will never be 100% accurate but they obviously need to be reasonably reliable; as much good practice as possible has been incorporated into the projection process, within the time and resource constraints. Assumptions have been made using the evidence and information available at the time of making the projections.

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4 Forecasting Methodology The model used has been based on progression ratios; ratios of the number of pupils in the year group as proportion of the year below in the year before, capturing whether the cohort has increased or decreased in number as it has progressed to the next year. A ratio greater than 100% indicates an increase in number and less than 100% a decrease. The numbers for each school year are from the January 2015 school census. For each year before school age an interpolated figure is derived using reception numbers and live births.

Diagram of Cohort Progression in the Model

Age0 Ages 1, 2, and 3

Age1 Age 0 - NHS Local live birth data - HSCIC (Health and Social Care Information Centre)

Live birth data is input into the model by ward grouped up to Age2 the school planning areas

The birth data by ward for 2014/15 is estimated from a 4 Age3 year average of previous years

Age 1, Age 2, and Age 3 are interpolated between birth data and Reception School Census NOR R

The actual pupils on roll Primary transitions through to the next year. Each Year Groups cohort has a progression ratio which represents Age3 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 the increase or decrease as it passes into the next year group. The progression ratio for R 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 each transition is calculated from the last 6 years transitions, this calculation is weighted to make the more recent Secondary years count more than the earlier years. Year Groups

Next year's forecast is 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 based on multiplying each cohort by the progression ratio for the 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 transition

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Pupil number forecasts are based on the following factors:

 NHS Local live birth data - HSCIC (Health and Social Care Information Centre)  The number of children in each academic age group (September to August)  Primary pupil projections by Planning Area - geographical data of the primary pupils attending the schools located in each of the 6 Planning Areas in Oldham (NOR January School Census 2015)  Secondary Projection Oldham level – NOR January School Census 2015  Children‟s movement (progression) from age-group to age-group  Pupil Housing Yields  New arrivals from overseas – admissions data  Net cross boundary movement – DfE and School Census data  Previous model accuracy checks  Stakeholder consultation

From the individual year on year progression ratios a weighted progression ratio is derived – averaging, with weighting, to most recent data. Weightings are 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, and 1. A constant number of previous years and weighting ratios are used to allow year on year comparison of the model and, over time, allow judgements to be made on the stability of the model. The model is built from data going back to 2004-5.

Diagram Illustrating an Overview of the Model

Births Pupil yields New arrivals NHS Local birth data - from housing from overseas HSCIC (Health and Social developments Care Information Centre) Age 1, 2, and 3 interpolated Net cross School Census boundary January NOR movements

Factors added to make Progression ratios adjustments to account for from 7 year trend recent rising pupil numbers and weighted previous under projection

Existing inputs in original model New Pupil Projections 2015-16 to 2024-25 Primary by planning area Additional inputs to new model Secondary – Oldham Borough level

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Births – Forecasting Reception Age Pupils

Forecasting reception age pupils is the most difficult because you cannot base your calculation on the numbers of pupils in the previous years. The model uses birth data to identify children aged 0 and the data is interpolated with known reception age children from the previous census, to identify children aged 1, aged 2 and aged 3.The previous pattern identifies a progression ratio to input to the model and this gives the number of pupils who will enter school in the next 5 years.

Live birth data is input into the model by ward grouped up to the school planning areas. The live birth data has been provided from two sources:  Local live birth data - HSCIC (Health and Social Care Information Centre) – data recently became available to share with the council quarterly – latest release Q3 2014  National ONS Live births – validated annual data available many months later – latest 2013

Data for births had not been available for the year immediately before the first year being projected. Therefore an estimate based on a 3 year average was previously made. Additionally an assumed reapportionment of births by each ward was made with a lack of data at ward level.

This year several changes to the methodology have been made. A revision of the birth data since 2009-10 up to 2013-14 has been included. Historically the model has used both birth data in some years and ONS Mid-Year Population projections in others. When Mid-Year estimates were used more inaccuracy was evident in the models predictions. The revision has also allowed births in each ward to be identified historically, which should improve the accuracy levels at the district planning area.

The live birth data was previously proportioned into an academic year from 1st September to 31st August. An assumption was made that there was an even proportion of births across each month. With new data by quarter we are able to calculate the academic year more precisely. Assumed academic year has been calculated as follows from annual quarterly data:- E.g. 2010-11 academic year, 1 September to 31st August

1/3 Q3 Year 2010 + Q4 Year 2010 + Q1 Year 2011 + Q2 Year 2011 + 2/3 Q3 Year 2011

The birth data by ward for 2014/15 is estimated from a 4 year average of previous years. This was found to be the most accurate predictor of estimating the current births. Additionally birth data from ONS (the graph below) show births have been fairly stable since 2008. Live births reached a peak of 3,361 in 2006. Live birth rates have been relatively steady over the last few years, and in the last 3 years rates have remained around 3,300.

Oldham Live Births 1992-2013 3400

3300

3200

3100 Live Births 3000

2900

Year

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Travel to School – Cross Boundary Movement Oldham is a net importer of pupils from surrounding Local authorities across all year groups. Cross boundary movement has been incorporated into the model by assuming the proportion of net gain is applied as the table below at key age groups reception and Year 7 as prime transfer stages, as suggested in DfE guidance.

Analysis of pupil residency outside the Oldham boundary and the distribution of school attendance across each planning area have been incorporated into the model for primary pupils. The factor has been used to weight net imports of pupils by planning area at the reception key age group. Incorporating this into the model should reflect some schools in some areas that are likely to be more prominent importers, e.g. those nearest the LA border especially the case of primary schools.

Proprtion of Net Gain from Cross-Boundary Movement

Year Group R 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Total % of pupils residing in other LAs attending 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.3 8.7 9.4 10.3 10.4 13.0 6.1 schools maintained by Oldham % of pupils residing in Oldham attending 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.7 6.4 6.7 7.2 7.1 8.1 3.9 schools maintained by other LAs Net difference between imports and exports as 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.5 5.4 2.3 a % of school population

Cross Boundary Flows – Primary Schools

Cross border net flows into Oldham -Primary Schools Bury 8 Lancashire 4 Manchester 41 Rochdale 264 Salford 3 Stockport 3 Tameside 9 Kirklees 19 Unknown 86 Total 437

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Cross Boundary Flows – Secondary Schools

Cross border net flows into Oldham -Secondary Schools Bury 6 Lancashire 7 Manchester 413 Rochdale 300 Tameside -256 Calderdale 4 Derbyshire 45 Unknown 24 Total 543 Source: DfE Cross Boundary Matrix Tables School Census Jan 2014

Primary School Pupils from Outside of Oldham by School Planning Area

Pupil Residence School Planning Area Oldham Out of Area Total CH 3769 137 3906 FH 3193 194 3387 WO 4988 18 5006 RS 3445 215 3660 SL 2858 161 3019 EO 3950 14 3964 Total 22203 739 22942

The Table above shows that East Oldham and West Oldham areas have much fewer pupils from outside the Oldham boundary. This is reflected in the model, cross boundary adjustments are factored for each school planning area at primary stage.

The impact to the model is to add 47 children in total to reception every year (distributed by area weighting) and 77 children in year 7. This is boosting the school population throughout the model through progression of these years through school.

Migration – New Arrivals ONS sub-national population projections forecast for 2012 (published May 2014) international in-migration to Oldham at 1,000 people per year up to 2037, but it also has international out- migration at 1,000 per year in most years. The net is no growth from international migration. More detailed tables reveal a net gain of around 574 people per year, when rounding to the nearest 1,000 is removed.

Given recent increases in new arrivals from overseas and pressure points with school capacity new arrivals have been incorporated into the model. This has been done by assuming the latest numbers would be repeated again every year. An estimated proportion has been applied across year groups since it would be difficult to predict which year groups would be the point of entry for different cohorts.

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The table below shows the new arrivals that have been placed on roll at an Oldham school in each academic year. The 2014/15 academic year has been adjusted to account for the months not included in the academic year so far (the data captures up until May 2015). The remainder of the year is estimated by the numbers and location of new migrants from the months May to August from the previous year 2013/14. This is considered a more reflective estimate of a migration pattern over the course of the year. There are a high number of migrants over the summer and most of these arrivals are placed on roll in September, and the numbers placed on roll tail off towards the end of the school term.

The figures in the table below are distributed in each area across the age groups from Age 3 to Year 13, and applied to the cohorts from reception to year 11. The impact on the model is to add between 34 and 36 pupils per age group to secondary every year. At primary level the following number of pupils are added to each year group every year: Chadderton 2 to 3, East Oldham 7, Failsworth/Hollinwood 5 to 6, Royton and Shaw 3 to 4, Saddleworth/Lees 2 to 3, and West Oldham 14 to 15.

New Arrivals by Planning Area

Area New Arrivals CH 35 EO 92 FH 74 RS 44 SL 29 WO 186 Total 460 * Adjusted figure by adding the previous cohort numbers from May to Aug 2013/14 to estimate a complete year

Pupil Yields - Housing Developments Housing developments can have a substantial demand on places at individual schools and even across the Local Authority. New housing developments and the expected impact these developments will have on pupil numbers have been included in the model.

The model takes into account future housing growth. Future new housing developments have been identified from the housing land supply, including council owned regeneration sites and affordable housing developments. The numbers of units, housing size and mix, location and completion timescale have all been taken into account.

A development programme has been calculated with delivery of houses in the next 5 years and 6 to ten years that have met the „principles of development‟ – to include sites with planning permission, outline planning permission, S106, sites under construction or that can be justified that the development will proceed. Developments that are justified to proceed include Council owned sites that will come forward with partner developers as they are under the council‟s control and influence to some degree.

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Additional pupils from all future development

Houses with more than 1 bedroom Extra Primary Pupils Extra Secondary Pupils Total Pupils Next 5 years 2,887 691 489 1,180 6 to 10 years 2,191 524 371 896 Total 5,078 1,215 861 2,076

Pupil yield factors have been calculated that are based on the number of children per dwelling, which are used to calculate the additional number of pupils generated by new housing. The ratios have been calculated from analysis of census data. Populations in different age groups in different size properties were compared to the total number of properties of each of the different sizes to give an average number of primary aged children and secondary aged children in each property size.

The sensitivities of the pupil yield per bedroom were tested and the resulting yields were found to generate pupil number too high, and an overall yield per dwelling was found to be more valid and comparable with other local authorities. Additionally 1 bedroom flats were removed as they were assumed to have a negligible impact on pupil yields.

The pupil yields used are: Primary pupil yield 0.24 per dwelling – 7 x 0.034 per year group per dwelling Secondary pupil yield 0.17 per dwelling – 5 x 0.034 per year group per dwelling

These pupil yields have been compared to our statistical neighbours and to local authorities with pupil yield research, and these yields are considered to be validated in line with others. For example: Rotherham Primary pupil yield 0.21 per dwelling – 7 x 0.03 per year group per dwelling Secondary pupil yield 0.15 – 5 x 0.03 per year group per dwelling Salford Primary pupil yield 0.27 per dwelling Kirklees Primary pupil yield 0.21 per dwelling Secondary pupil yield 0.1 per dwelling

Additional Primary Pupils by Primary Planning Areas Generated by Housing Developments

Planning Area Next 5 Years 6 to 10 Years CH 87 50 WO 198 106 EO 175 47 SL 86 129 RS 36 91 FH 108 101 Overall 691 524

The figures from the above table are added into the model over the forecasting period and distributed over each year group.

The arrival of new families into the borough is expected to continue, driven by housing growth. The Council has increased disposal of Council owned land in order to accelerate the development of

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new family housing. The strategic aim is to increase the number of high quality new homes. This supports the wider Greater Manchester aim of increasing the number of new homes across GM by 10,000 per annum. Extra funding is supporting housing growth across GM and Oldham is currently identifying even more sites than have been accounted for in the model.

5 The Pupil Forecasts These forecasts project pupil numbers up to 2024/25 at local authority borough level for secondary and planning area for primary. The forecasts are primarily trend-based which means they assume that past trends continue in the future. Pupil numbers for the school year 2014/15 are taken from the January 2015 School Census.

Summary of Pupil Forecasts Pupil Forecasts Primary Secondary Pri/Sec Actual 2014-15 23,181 15,511 38,692 Forecast 2015-16 23,993 16,049 40,042 Forecast 2016-17 24,660 16,761 41,421 Forecast 2017-18 25,202 17,538 42,740 Forecast 2018-19 25,693 18,319 44,012 Forecast 2019-20 25,962 19,228 45,190 Forecast 2020-21 26,074 20,005 46,079 Forecast 2021-22 26,128 20,667 46,795 Forecast 2022-23 26,179 21,183 47,362 Forecast 2023-24 26,169 21,683 47,852 Forecast 2024-25 26,155 21,973 48,128

Primary Pupil Forecasts Planning Area Code 3530001 Chadderton Primary Academic year Primary

Planning Area Code 3530002 East Oldham Primary Academic year Primary

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Planning Area Code 3530003 Failsworth & Holinwood Primary Academic year Primary

Planning Area Code 3530004 Lees & Saddleworth Primary Academic year Primary

Forecasts Reception 1 2 3 4 5 6 2015/16 450 444 456 461 448 427 426 2016/17 454 459 451 464 465 454 433 2017/18 456 463 466 458 468 472 460 2018/19 466 466 470 474 463 475 478 2019/20 459 476 473 478 478 469 481

Planning Area Code 3530005 Royton & Shaw Primary Academic year Primary

Planning Area Code 3530006 West Oldham Primary Academic year Primary

Secondary Pupil Forecasts Planning Area Code 3530007 Oldham Secondary Academic year Secondary

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The graph below shows actual and forecast numbers for primary and secondary aged pupils. Pupil numbers are expected to grow, which is a trend that is continuing since 2010 for primary, and started this year for secondary. It is expected a further primary bulge will roll through to the secondary sector in 2017/18 onwards. Consequently the rate of growth will be higher and more sustained in the secondary sector than primary. In three years time growth in the secondary sector will be 13% and 9% in the primary sector.

Actual and Forecast Pupil numbers in Oldham 2002 to 2024/25

60000 Actual Forecast 50000

40000

30000 Primary

20000 Secondary All

10000

2003 2014 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015

Forecast 2016-17 Forecast 2017-18 Forecast 2018-19 Forecast 2019-20 Forecast 2020-21 Forecast 2021-22 Forecast 2022-23 Forecast 2023-24 Forecast 2024-25 Forecast Forecast 2015-16 Forecast

All primary planning areas are projected to have a growth in primary pupil numbers; however the model reflects increased pressure on primary school places in Oldham West with much higher projected growth in pupil numbers. Currently there are no places in reception to year 4, and numerous classes are above their planned admission numbers. West Oldham has seen unprecedented demand through increasing numbers of families moving into the area. This has been reflected in the model with projected new arrivals and the addition of pupils from new housing developments. West Oldham has the most new developments scheduled to occur is the next 5 years, and it has received the greatest influx of in migration to the area.

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Actual and Forecast Pupil numbers in for Primary School Planning Areas 2002 to 2024/25

6000

5500 Actual Forecast

5000

4500 CH 4000 EO FH 3500 RS SL 3000 WO

2500

2000

6 Pressures on Provision of School Places

This section compares current and projected reception rolls with their Published Admission Numbers (PANs) through to 2024/5, as well as providing a summary of surpluses and deficits. For future PANs planned increases to PANs have been added and projected forward with the cohort. Additionally current capacity pressure points and how this relates to future projections is explored. The number of classes provided and that will be needed in the future is shown in full in the appendix.

The tables in this section show the numbers on roll (NOR) between the January school census and the May School Census have increased. This highlights the growing pupil numbers from in year transfers and new arrivals throughout the school year creating pressure on school places.

The projections estimate that secondary schools will have a shortage of places in the school year 2017/18, i.e. the demand for school places in September 2017 will outstrip supply, if all the pupils projected by the model actually materialise.

From 2016/17 the secondary surplus drops to 3.01% and after this into a deficit reaching -22.12% in 2024/25. It is recommended by the DfE that there should be a surplus number of places between 5% and 8%, to comfortably plan school places and meet needs across the Borough. In order to reach this desired surplus secondary school provision should be increased overall from 2016/17 above planned expansions.

More detailed analysis of pupil place availability in each school by year group highlights current pressures on places, which is unevenly shared between schools. Several schools have limited or

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no places across the year groups and several are over-subscribed; whilst the Academies have surplus capacity.

Further analysis of the classes needed to support the pupil forecasts (included in the Appendix) reveal that there will be a shortage of secondary places in year 7 and year 8 from 2016-17. This cohort will then roll forward creating an additional shortage in each progressive year group in each additional year of the forecast.

Actual reception rolls for Secondary from 2014/15 and projected reception rolls through to 2024/25, against PANs

Secondary Total - Year 7 to Year 11 % NOR or Surplus Surplus / Academic Year Projection PAN / Deficit Deficit Based on 2014/15 - Jan PLASC 14593 15899 1306 8.21% actual NOR 2014/15 - May PLASC 14636 15899 1263 7.94% 2015/16 15151 16039 888 5.54% 2016/17 15869 16361 492 3.01% 2017/18 16627 16571 -56 -0.34% 2018/19 17383 16811 -572 -3.40% Based on 2019/20 18267 16991 -1276 -7.51% projections 2020/21 18989 16997 -1992 -11.72% 2021/22 19581 17005 -2576 -15.15% 2022/23 20049 17005 -3044 -17.90% 2023/24 20519 17005 -3514 -20.66% 2024/25 20767 17005 -3762 -22.12%

Current (July 2015) class capacity for Secondary by School

School Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Total The Blue Coat -2 -6 -4 -5 1 -16 Collective Spirit 2 5 n/a n/a n/a 7 Crompton House -6 -6 -5 -7 -6 -30 Failsworth School 12 0 6 4 5 27 Hathershaw College -1 -2 -2 -3 1 -7 Newman College 8 0 7 56 36 107 North Chadderton -2 -6 2 10 6 10 OASIS Academy 78 51 40 73 36 278 Oldham Academy North 74 78 80 78 95 405 Royton & Crompton 1 0 0 10 17 28 Saddleworth School 2 -2 -1 3 -5 -3 The Radclyffe 4 2 -1 0 1 6 Waterhead Academy 29 85 28 54 22 218 Total 199 199 150 273 209 1030

At the January school census 2015 the number of primary pupils on roll was 23,185 by the May school census this has risen to 23,226. Total capacity in the primary sector is currently 23,720

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places and there are currently 305 empty places. The percentage of surplus places across all primary schools is currently below the recommended 5%. Planned PAN increases will see that the surplus increases from 2.12% in May 214/15 to 2.21% in 2015/16 despite an increase in pupil numbers. This is short lived as the surplus reduces dramatically in 2016/17 and will reach a deficit in in 2017/18, when there will be an overall progressively worsening shortage of places thereafter.

Actual reception rolls for Primary from 2014/15 and projected reception rolls through to 2024/25, against PANs

Primary Total % NOR or Surplus Surplus / Academic Year Projection PAN / Deficit Deficit Based on 2014/15 - Jan PLASC 23185 23730 545 2.30% actual NOR 2014/15 - May PLASC 23226 23730 504 2.12% 2015/16 23993 24535 542 2.21% 2016/17 24660 24740 80 0.32% 2017/18 25202 24945 -257 -1.03% 2018/19 25693 25150 -543 -2.16% Based on 2019/20 25962 25345 -617 -2.43% projections 2020/21 26074 25490 -584 -2.29% 2021/22 26128 25525 -603 -2.36% 2022/23 26179 25555 -624 -2.44% 2023/24 26169 25555 -614 -2.40% 2024/25 26155 25555 -600 -2.35%

Actual reception rolls for Reception from 2014/15 and projected reception rolls through to 2024/25, against PANs

Reception % NOR or Surplus Surplus / Academic Year Projection PAN / Deficit Deficit Based on 2014/15 - Jan PLASC 3386 3530 144 4.08% actual NOR 2014/15 - May PLASC 3423 3530 107 3.03% 2015/16 3400 3585 185 5.16% 2016/17 3461 3585 124 3.46% 2017/18 3465 3585 120 3.35% 2018/19 3470 3585 115 3.21% Based on 2019/20 3467 3585 118 3.29% projections 2020/21 3465 3585 120 3.35% 2021/22 3465 3585 120 3.35% 2022/23 3464 3585 121 3.38% 2023/24 3466 3585 119 3.32% 2024/25 3464 3585 121 3.38%

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Overall there are surplus places in reception throughout the forecasted period. As in the case of primary overall the surplus percentage improves for 2015/16, as there are increases is reception PANs, but then the pupil numbers increase the year after and the surplus percentage drops to the 3% level afterwards. The pressure on reception places is less partly due to current plans to increase PANs that come into effect from reception years onwards. The lack of places in latter years in primary suggests that the roll-through of pan increases is not quite fast enough for the predicted level of growth throughout the school years due to new families moving into the area.

The overall small surplus of places hides some of the current pressure points within primary places currently. The current class capacity, (as of July 2015) demonstrate an outsized lack of places overall in Year 1 and Year 2 (with 71 children over the number of places in each year) and a deficit of places across each planning area individually.

Current (July 2015) class capacity for Primary by Planning Area

Locality Reception Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Total Chadderton 10 -11 -19 -4 -8 0 -7 -39 East -1 -20 -4 6 26 16 67 90 Fails/Hollinwood 12 -9 -15 20 -7 5 -5 1 Royton/Shaw 10 -6 -10 4 12 28 30 68 Saddle/Lees 9 -7 -9 -6 11 17 30 45 West -4 -18 -14 -2 -14 5 46 -1 Total 36 -71 -71 18 20 71 161 164

There is currently particular pressure on places is several planning areas, particularly in Chadderton and West Oldham which overall have too many pupils for the number of place supplied. Chadderton has no available places across all year groups, except in reception were there is a small surplus of 10 places. Similarly in West Oldham all year groups except Year 5 and Year 6 are oversubscribed.

Failsworth and Hollinwood planning area has 1 place available on balance, with oversubscribed places in Year 1, Year 2, Year 4 and Year 6. Although East Oldham shows the most capacity overall because of spaces available in latter primary years; it has the largest pressure point in Year 1 with the most oversubscribed number of places. It also has a lack of places for all early primary years: reception, Year 1, and Year 2. These larger cohorts will transition through creating further pressure in later year groups.

These current pressures are increased through the pupil projection model. Annex A contains tables that demonstrate the number of classes that will be needed in each planning area and year group. Overall provision of places will be needed in Year 2 from 2015-16 up until 2017-18. This eases afterwards as PAN expansion in primary begin to filter through. In Year 3, Year 4, and Year 5 increases of places is needed across the forecast years partly due to PAN expansion not filtering through to progressive years at the rate of growth; if the increased pupil numbers projected in the model materialises, from new families moving into the area as this is anticipated to affect later year groups sooner. The greatest pressure on class provision in primary is evident in Year 6 from 2019- 20 onwards.

The table below illustrates where extra classes are needed to meet future projected numbers. The potential pressure (displayed in the Appendix table in amber) where classes needed matches the classes provided are not included in the table below. All areas need extra classes to meet the projected numbers. Chadderton and Royton/Shaw will need 1 class more in latter primary years. Saddleworth/Lees will require 1 more class in several year groups from Year 2 onwards.

East Oldham has the need for 1 class more in Year 2, throughout most years of the forecast. In the model there has consistently been a drop in pupil numbers between year 2 and 3 in East Oldham. This is a result of Glodwick Infant and Nursery School in East Oldham being a feeder school for Alexandra Park Junior School in West Oldham, and consequently there is a large outflow of pupils

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from East Oldham into West Oldham between years 2 and 3. Therefore the pressure on places subsides from Year 3. Given the current lack of places in East Oldham from reception to Year 2 and the potential pressure shown in appendix A, more classes from Reception through to Year 2 would ease this pressure.

Summary Table of Pressure on Classes Needed to Meet Pupil Projections

Year of Forecast/ Chadderton East Failsworth/ Saddleworth/ Royton/Shaw West Provision needed Oldham Hoilnwood Lees Oldham 2015-16 Low Yr 5 Low Yr 2 Low Yr 2, 3, 5 Low Yr 6 Medium and 6 Yr 2, High Yr 3, Yr 4, Yr 5 and Yr 6 2016-17 Low Yr 3 ,4, Low Yr 2 Low Yr 3 and Low Yr 4 Low Yr 4 Medium and 6 Medium Yr 4, Yr 2, High Yr 6 Yr 3, Yr 4, Yr 5 and Yr 6 2017-18 Low Yr 4, 5 and Low Yr 2 Low Yr 4, Yr 6 Low Yr 2, Yr 4 Low Yr 4 and Yr Low Yr 2, 6 and Medium and Yr 5 5 High Yr 3, Yr 5 Yr 4, Yr 5 and Yr 6 2018-19 Low Yr Low Yr 2 Medium Yr 5, Low Yr 2, Yr 3, Low Yr 5 and Yr High Yr 3, 5 and Medium High Yr 6 Yr 5 and Yr 6 6 Yr 4, Yr 5 Yr 6 and Yr 6 2019-20 Low Yr 6 Low Yr 2 Medium Yr 6 Low Yr 2, Yr 3, Low Yr 5 and Yr High Yr 3, Yr 5 and Yr 6 6 Yr 4, Yr 5 and Yr 6 2020-21 Low Yr 1 Low Yr 4, Yr 5 Low Yr 3, Yr 4 , High Yr 3, and 2 and Yr 6 Yr5 and Yr 6 Yr 4, Yr 5 and Yr 6  Low pressure on extra classes - defined as needing 1 more class than provided  Medium pressure on extra classes - defined as needing 2 more class than provided  High pressure on extra classes - defined as needing 3 or more class than provided

An increased discrepancy between anticipated future pupil numbers and classes provided reaches an amplified pressure point in Failsworth/Holinwood from 2018-19 in Year 5 and Year 6 where up to two classes more may be needed.

West Oldham has the requirement for significantly more classes to meet anticipated pupil projections from Year 2 onwards, although particularly high pressure on places is from Year 3 to Year 6. Currently there are no places in reception to year 4, and numerous classes are above their planned admission numbers. The new planned primary school and school expansion help to alleviate this. However, West Oldham has seen unprecedented demand through increasing numbers of families moving into the area. This has been reflected in the model with projected new arrivals and the addition of pupils from new housing developments. West Oldham has the most new developments scheduled to occur is the next 5 years, and it has received the greatest influx of in-migration to the area. If assumption made in the model around the continuing trend of future development and migration are correct then this area will have the most pressure on primary school places.

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7 To Conclude

Producing pupil number projections is not an exact science. The further into the future we try to project, the less accurate the projections. Good practice has been incorporated into the projection process. Assumptions have been made using the evidence and information available at the time of making the projection, and any „significant‟ assumptions along with reasons have been clearly noted with the projection submission.

Essentially at its base the model assumes that past trends will continue in the future. In addition to this we need to be mindful of the sensitivities of the model to considerable change based on the assumptions contained within the model. A number of uplift factors have been applied to the model to account for the recent increasing pressure on school places. New pupil arrivals from overseas, cross boundary movement, and pupil yields from new housing developments are all included in the pupil projections.

The new arrival data is based on evidence seen in the last two years, and the last year‟s numbers has been included in the model. We have yet to understand the effects of new arrivals longer-term and whether the often transient population will remain in school in the Borough.

Cross boundary net imports have been included in the model at key transitional stages (reception and Year7) since Oldham is a net importer of pupils. Again this is on the basis of the latest data representing a future trend. This is fairly subjective going forward as it is hard to predict the impact of changes in school performance and internal management in the surrounding Local Authorities, and what impact that has on demand for places within the Oldham local authority boundary.

Pupil yields from new housing developments generate an increased number of pupils within the model. Although great care has been taken to identify the likelihood and timing of sites coming forward it is subject to several factors, with regard to the current economic scenario and the buoyancy of the housing market. If sales on sites are slow then house building will not occur at the assumed rates and potential pupils from those sites will not be generated. Additionally it is difficult to evaluate how much new house building generates existing movement within the borough or in- migration into the borough from elsewhere.

These forecasts should be used as a guide to possible future numbers based on what we know about birth rates, historic pupil data and possible future PAN changes. These forecasts do not take into account any unknown change in legislation or policy that might affect school admission arrangements for future years, nor do they make any attempt to estimate any change in demand based on parental preference, school performance, internal management improvements, or curriculum changes.

Sensitivity to change in the model is likely and on-going monitoring of the models inputs will help the model reflect changes and maintain a level of accuracy.

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Model Assumption RAG Ratings

Assumptions Issues to Note Mitigating Factors RAG Future Birth Rate *Estmating current birth rate based on the Based on analysis of birth average last 4 years rates Cross Boundary Movement *Cross boundary movement may already be captured in the cohort survival *Increasing Pupil numbers to Recption and Year 7 - may distort these cohorts *At what scale will this continue *No control over what neighbouring LAs do , i.e. Based on some analysis, and building new school, school improvement etc. stakeholder input indicates *Based on data from one year this is a justified inclusion New Arrivals *Will current numbers continue? *Based on two years worth of data evidence *Potentially transient population - will current 'overseas' pupils stay in Oldham Schools In the short-term new arrivals throughout their school career? are having an impact on the demand for school places Housing Development - Pupil *Will anticipated housing growth be Based on sites from the Yield deliverable due to: the economic conditions housing land supply and other which prevail, the housing market, developers council sites considered to appetite and wider legislation and policy meet 'the principles of development' or that can be justified that the development will proceed. In line with GM housing growth ambitions

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APPENDIX D: DECISION SUPPORT MATRIX

CODE CRITERIA WEIGHTING SCORE Column1 Column2 Column3 MAX 0 1 2 3 SCORE

SCHOOLS ACCESS AND STANDARDS RATINGS

A SURPLUS PLACES 5 > 25% 16% - 24% 8% - 15% 0% - 7% 15 Source - Most recent annual SCAP return to DfE (note 1)

B PREDICTED SURPLUS 3 > 25% 16% - 24% 8% - 15% 0% - 7% 9 PLACES IN 4 YEARS TIME IN RELEVANT PLANNING AREA Source - Primary Place Projections based on January school census data (Note 2)

C PARENTAL PREFERENCES 1 < 50% 50% - 74% 75% - 94% 95% + 3 (see note 3) Source - Total "on time" first preferences received for school as % of PAN from most recent allocation

D NUMBER ON ROLL (exc 3 105 or less 106-157 158-209 210 + 9 Nursery)

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(See note 4) Source - January school census data

E CURRENT EDUCATIONAL STANDARDS Source – National Progress Data 2

Progress ranking 100-75 74-50 49-25 24-0 2 0 1 2 3 6

d) OFSTED "overall 1 Inadequate Requires Good Outstanding 3 effectiveness" improvement

1 0 1 2 3 3

F DISTANCE TO ALTERNATIVE 2 <0.5m 0.5 - 1m 1 - 2m > 2.0 m 6 PROVISION (See note 3) Source - Straight line measure using GIS

G BALANCE OF PROVISION (See note 3) Source - if school closed, is there sufficient

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number of available school places of same category (Community, CE or RC) 2 <0.5m 0.5 - 1m 1 - 2m > 2.0 m 6 within: Straight line measure using GIS

H COMMUNITY COHESION % OF FREE SCHOOL MEALS 1 > 50% 25% - 49% 10% - 24% < 10% 3 ELIGIBILITY (See note 9)

Unaffected Alternative Alternative No alternative (or not provision provision provision applicable) available available

I EFFECT OF PROPOSALS ON available in in neighbouring in review area OUT OF area or SCHOOL PROVISION: (See areas neighbouring note 8) areas a) EARLY YEARS 1 3 Only if used for 50% or more or school week b) WRAP AROUND CARE 1 3

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J RUNNING COSTS: Cost per 100-76 75-51 50-26 25-Jan pupil, percentile rank

Source: CFR Headings E12-18- Premises Related. TOTAL PER PUPIL COSTS 3 9 (See note 9)

PROPERTY AND BUILDING RELATED RATINGS - CORPORATE LANDLORD TEAM

K DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL

a) ESTIMATED COST OF 5 >£2.5m / 1FE £1.75m - £2.5m £1.25 - £1.75m < £1.25m / 15 DEVELOPMENT / FE / FE 1FE Source - Costs as estimated by Unity compared to notional cost of increase of PAN - takes account of backlog maintenance issues, complexity of project and temporary works

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b) LIKELIHOOD OF PLANNING 2 Not feasible Unlikely Degree of Deemed 6 STATUTORY PERMISSIONS- challenge probable including external spaces, playing fields and traffic

Source - planning opinion from Unity

School Score TOTALS (See note 10) 39 46 or less 47 to 61 62 and over Max score 111

ACTION Urgent review Investigation Take no action of provision into viability required

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APPENDIX E: DRAFT ACADEMY CONVERSION POLICY (Final due June 2016)

LA Policy on Academy Conversion Final Draft Version.pdf

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APPENDIX F: EDUCATION PROVISION GROUP TERMS OF REFERENCE

Education Provision Group (EPG)

Terms of Reference

April 2016

Purpose: A consultative group that will collectively act as decision maker to ensure Oldham LA meets its statutory duties around the planning of schools and settings places and to inform the need to undertake capital works to expand existing or build new schools.

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Context and LA Duties

1.1 Oldham Council has a democratic mandate to secure good educational outcomes for all its children and young people in state funded education, regardless of the status of the provider institutions.

1.2 The Council has a statutory duty to ensure that sufficient school places are available within its area for every child of school age whose parents wish them to have one; to promote diversity, parental choice and high educational standards; to ensure fair access to educational opportunity and to protect the interests of the most vulnerable.

1.3 The Council also has a duty to respond to any representations from parents and carers who are not satisfied with the provision of schools in the local area. This could be regarding size, type, location or quality of school provision.

1.4 Early Years statutory duties include; ensuring secure sufficient childcare is available for working parents and to:

 monitor and manage the childcare market;  undertake a Childcare Sufficiency Assessment review (CSA) and respond to changes in the childcare market;  Ensure there are sufficient places available to meet a legal entitlement for eligible 2, 3 and 4 year olds to access fifteen hours per week free early education across childcare providers;  Ensure provision is in place to provide information, advice and assistance to parents and prospective parents for children 0- 25; and to  Ensure provision is in place to provide information, advice and training to childcare providers.

1.8 Changes in the provision of maintained school places mean that new providers are able to establish state-funded Free Schools. There are also a growing number of academies, which are independent of Local Authority (LA) control. School places are no longer therefore solely provided by Oldham Council; the Council must work with other providers to ensure that the demand for high quality school places is met.

1.9 There has been no statutory requirement to publish a School Organisation Plan since 2004. However, it is considered good practice to produce a plan related to school place planning to clearly set out the framework for, and approach towards, the strategic provision of high quality places.

1.10 This strategic approach shows local communities, and those interested in their development, how we expect school provision to change over the next few years. It brings together information from a range of sources and sets out the issues the Council will face in meeting its statutory duties for providing school places up to 2020/2021 and beyond.

1.11 The information from which our plan will be developed includes present and predicted future pupil numbers, together with information about birth rates,

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school capacity and new housing. The plan will set out proposed changes in the number of school places available over the next year and it suggests where other changes may be necessary in the future. The plan will also set out our policies on school organisation and the statutory framework for making changes such as opening, closing, amalgamating or expanding schools.

School Organisation Context

2.1 In April 2016, education provision in Oldham is as set out in Table 1 below;

TABLE 1

Type of school Primary Secondary Cross phase

Community 35 1 0 Foundation Trust 1 3 0 Voluntary Controlled 6 0 0 Voluntary Aided 31 1 0 Academy 12 7 0 Special 1 0 1 Special Academy 0 1 1 Pupil Referral Unit 0 1 0 Free School 0 1 0 UTC 0 1 0 Independent 2 3 1 Independent Special 0 0 1

2.2 The LA has recently expanded six existing primary schools including; Bare Trees C P & Yew Tree C P - September 2013 St Hilda‟s C E, Mills Hill C P, Watersheddings CP and Propps Hall - September 2014 Oasis Limeside – September 2015

The LA has acted jointly with Bluecoat School to expand the number of secondary places on offer -September 2014.

The LA has also constructed a new school for children on the autistic continuum at Hollinwood Academy – September 2015

2.3 During 2016 a new 3 form entry primary school will be constructed in the town centre and in 2017 a school expansion project is planned for Saddleworth & Lees .

School organisation demands 3.1 The number of in year school transfers has increased year on year since 2010/2011. This is largely due to the number of children and young people moving in to the borough from abroad. In the main the above families are Page 62 of 66

moving in to council owned housing in two of the six districts; Chadderton and Oldham.

3.2 The number of families moving in to the Oldham area and requiring places in KS1 (Reception, Year 1 and Year 2) has increased. There is now pressure on places in the borough throughout Key Stage 1.

3.3 Borough wide pupil projections show a continual increase in primary pupil numbers up to 2018/19 and secondary pupil numbers up to 2023/2024.

3.4 A high percentage of KS1 classes are over their planned admission number (pupils being taught in a class of more than 30) and this is impacting on infant class size legislation. Year groups 1, 2, 3 and 4 are the most significant in terms of place pressure;

3.5 The DFE estimates that approximately 400,000 – 500,000 additional pupil places will be required in both the primary and secondary sectors nationally between 2015 and 2024. (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/478185/SFR24_2015_Proje ctions_Text.pdf)

Early Years Settings

4.1 Childcare providers are privately run childcare businesses that operate under a small business model. The market can be unpredictable and subject to change at any time. Oldham Council has to manage and monitor the childcare market to ensure that there is sufficient childcare for working parents.

4.2 The childcare market is fluid and the number of settings can change throughout the year. Parents have a choice where they take up childcare and many of the providers are private childcare businesses. The current childcare provision in Oldham includes;

9 breakfast clubs 166 childminders 46 day nurseries 28 extended day play groups 41 holiday schemes 54 maintained nursery classes 9 academy nursery 4 nursery units independent schools 67 out of school care 12 pre-school playgroups

4.3 The government policy from September 2014 has been to expand two year old places and a capital programme has been put in place.

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Policies and Legislation

5.1 All decisions and arrangements will be made using the following legislation and policies;

 School Admissions Code - February 2012  The academy/free school presumption departmental advice - February 2014  Establishing new maintained schools departmental advice - June 2013  School Organisation Guidance - January 2014  Early Education and Childcare – September 2014  Children and Families Act – September 2014  Educational Excellence Everywhere – White Paper March 2016

Management arrangements and decision making

6.1 To inform its duties as decision maker for school organisation issues Oldham Council has Education provision Group comprising Officers from Education and Early years, Regeneration, Schools, Business Intelligence, Corporate Assets, Finance, Preventative Services and Housing Strategy.

6.2 The key activities of the group are to:

 Discuss and inform the overall strategy for school and early years organisation in order to meet LA statutory duties  Discuss developing options in relation to school and childcare expansions and new builds  Endorse recommendations to the cabinet member for education and skills, the capital Investment programme board, Director of Children‟s Services and the Early Years & Childcare Board.  Comment on statutory information and any written comments and objections as part of the statutory process  Discuss and consider proposals for Free Schools, University Technology Colleges and other academies  Review the effectiveness of existing and proposed admissions arrangements in serving the interests of children and parents within the area of the LA  Monitor demand for and access to places and admission patterns  Monitor ongoing programmes of capital works to ensure projects are completed and deliver benefits required 6.3 Recommendations made by the EPG will be reported, when relevant, initially to the Economy, Skills and Neighbourhoods EMT and Early Years & Childcare Board prior to presentation to the Capital Investment Programme Board.

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School and Early Years forecast methodology

7.1 October Census data will be circulated and discussed at the December EPG meeting. 7.2 January Census data will be circulated and discussed at the March EPG Meeting. 7.3 There will be an annual refresh of projection work and forecasts.

School and Early Years place planning data

8.1 School Organisation spreadsheet will be brought to December EPG meeting. 8.2 School Organisation spreadsheet will be brought to March EPG meeting. 8.3 DFE return SCAP – draft commentary on school capacity and methodology will be discussed at May PSSPG meeting.

Review arrangements

9.1 The Group to participate in consultations and take feedback to and from the sector they represent. 9.2 The Group will review the terms of reference annually.

Aligned arrangements

10.1 Service level agreement with Local Authority 10.2 Partnership with all Schools, Academies, Free Schools and Early Years Settings 10.3 Directorate and corporate objectives 10.4 Cooperative agenda 10.5 Other arrangements as agreed by the EPG

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APPENDIX G: SCHEMES CONSIDERED AS PRIOIRTY – JANUARY 2016

Primary :-

 Addressing condition issues across an aging estate (some very serious)  Academy conversion of Lyndhurst including separation of Springbrook Lower

Secondary :-

 Working with the EFA to procure a full rebuild for Royton & Crompton via PSBP2 grant process (also including the potential to expand from 9 form entry to 12 form entry)  Expanding Crompton House to a 12 form entry school  Creating at least one additional secondary school by 2021 and possibly one more by 2024 (potential sites include Bloom Street, Southlink, Old Town Centre Leisure site)

Special schools:-

 New free school application for additional school as part of Kingfisher MAT  Resolving issues around Springbrook:- Lower School to be separated from Lyndhurst Upper School to be co-located / reorganised with lower school

Alternative Provision:-

 New / Relocated / Expanded Pupil Referral Unit  New in borough residential provision for those pupils in out of borough residential placements

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