THE LIBYAN UPRISING: AN UNCERTAIN TRAJECTORY Varun Vira and Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Final Draft: 20 June 2011 Please send comments and suggested revisions and additions to
[email protected] 2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................... 5 I. WINNING THE WAR........................................................................................................ 10 A Backgrounder on the Fighting ................................................................................................... 10 Implications on Energy Markets .............................................................................................................. 13 DEGRADING LOYALIST FORCES .......................................................................................... 17 The Libyan Army .......................................................................................................................................... 21 Reliance on Local Cadres ......................................................................................................................................... 21 Paramilitary Forces and Internal Security Agencies .......................................................................... 24 Qaddafi and Family..................................................................................................................................................... 25 The Role of Mercenary Forces ...............................................................................................................................