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Drought in Utah: Learning from the Past—Preparing for the Future

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Drought in Utah: Learning from the Past—Preparing for the Future DROUGHT IN UTAH: LEARNING FROM THE PAST—PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE April 2007 By: The Utah Division of Water Resources U T A H S T A T E W A T E R P L A N Table of Contents ii Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Utah Division of Water Resources prepared this document with important contributions from the following staff: Dennis Strong - Director Eric Millis - Deputy Director Todd Adams - Assistant Director Todd Stonely - Section Chief, River Basin Planning Eric Klotz - Section Chief, Water Conservation, Education and Use Dave Cole - Section Chief, Hydrology and Computer Applications Eric Edgley - Section Chief, Technical Services Ken Short - Senior Engineer, River Basin Planning Mike Suflita - Senior Engineer, River Basin Planning Russ Barrus - Engineer, River Basin Planning Brian King - Engineer, River Basin Planning (Primary Author) Gay Smith - Secretary, River Basin Planning The Utah Division of Water Resources also wishes to express gratitude to the following individuals who provided valuable input during the review process: Donald Wilhite - Director, National Drought Mitigation Center Michael Hayes - Associate Director, National Drought Mitigation Center Mark Svoboda - Climatologist, National Drought Mitigation Center Cody Knutson - Water Resource/Social Scientist, National Drought Mitigation Center Stephen Gray - Director, Water Resources Data System and Wyoming State Climatologist Connie Woodhouse - Department of Geography and Regional Development, Univ. of Arizona Robert Gillies - Director, Utah Climate Center and Utah State Climatologist Mark Andersen - Assistant General Manager, Weber Basin Water Conservancy District Randall Julander - Snow Survey Supervisor, National Resources Conservation Service Brian McInerney - Hydrologist, National Weather Service Mike Wilson - General Manager, Metropolitan Water District of Salt Lake and Sandy Nancy Barr - Emergency Preparedness Planner, Utah Division of Homeland Security Mike Lowe - Geologist, Utah Geological Survey Ben Everitt - Geologist, Utah Division of Water Resources (Retired) Mark Eubank - Meteorologist, Channel 5 News (Retired) iii Table of Contents iv Table of Contents PREFACE One of the responsibilities of the Utah Division of Water Resources is comprehensive water planning. Over the past decade and a half, the Division has prepared a series of documents under the title "Utah State Water Plan." This includes two statewide water plans, an individual water plan for each of the State’s eleven major hydrologic river basins and “special studies” (such as this document). Preparing these documents involves several major data collection programs as well as extensive inter-agency and public outreach efforts. Much is learned through this process. State, local, and federal water planners and managers obtain valuable information for use in their programs and activities, and the public receives the opportunity to provide meaningful input in improving the state’s water resources stewardship. This document is the latest in the "Utah State Water Plan" series and is intended to provide information regarding drought in Utah. It describes drought of the past century (instrumental record) and compares these droughts with pre-instrumental droughts of the not-so-distant past and ancient times, in an attempt to more fully describe drought variability in Utah and the West. It encourages discussion among water managers and decision makers regarding the potential for drought more severe than has been experienced in the past 100 years and strongly promotes a mitigation-based methodology of drought planning and management. It presents and discusses mitigation and response strategies that are currently used, or can be employed, to manage drought and minimize its impacts. This document also makes recommendations that will assist the water community in planning and employing drought mitigation strategies. In addition to the printed form of this document, the Utah Division of Water Resources has made a “pdf” version available on the Internet. This can be accessed through the Division’s home page at: www.water.utah.gov. Such access facilitates better planning and management at the state and local level. It also provides a convenient mode for readers to provide comment and feedback to the division regarding its water planning efforts. Reader comments regarding this publication are welcome. v Table of Contents vi Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS APPENDICES ....................................................................................................................................................ix LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................................x LIST OF TABLES..............................................................................................................................................xi BOXES ...............................................................................................................................................................xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. xiii Chapter Page 1 INTRODUCTION: DROUGHT, INDICES AND IMPACTS......................................................................1 Purpose of this Report.............................................................................................................................2 What is Drought?....................................................................................................................................2 Meteorological Drought...................................................................................................................2 Agricultural Drought........................................................................................................................3 Hydrologic Drought .........................................................................................................................3 Socioeconomic Drought...................................................................................................................4 Sequence of Drought in Utah ...........................................................................................................4 Drought Indices.......................................................................................................................................5 Palmer Drought Severity Index........................................................................................................5 Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index...................................................................................................5 Surface Water Supply Index.............................................................................................................6 Comparison of Drought Indices.......................................................................................................6 Standardized Precipitation Index......................................................................................................8 Drought Impacts .....................................................................................................................................8 Drought Vulnerability...........................................................................................................................10 2 HISTORICAL DROUGHT EVENTS FROM THE INSTRUMENTAL RECORD ..................................13 Utah Droughts Within the Instrumental PDSI Record..........................................................................13 Identification of Utah Droughts.....................................................................................................14 PDSI Parameters—Temperature and Precipitation..................................................................16 Recurrence Intervals and Frequencies of Utah Drought Conditions..............................................17 Brief Summary of the Identified Droughts ...........................................................................................19 Drought of 1898-1905....................................................................................................................19 Drought of 1928-1936....................................................................................................................21 Drought of 1946-1964....................................................................................................................22 Drought of 1976-1979....................................................................................................................23 Drought of 1987-1992....................................................................................................................23 Drought of 1999-2004....................................................................................................................24 Wildfires and Drought.............................................................................................................26 National Impacts......................................................................................................................27 Drought Snapshots and Additional Impacts..........................................................................................27 Drought Snapshots .........................................................................................................................27
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