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Climate Change and Aspen: an Assessment of Impacts and Potential Responses

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Climate Change and Aspen: an Assessment of Impacts and Potential Responses CLIMatE CHANGE AND ASPEN: AN ASSESSMENT OF IMPactS AND POTENtiaL RESPONSES A report of the Aspen Global Change Institute Prepared for the City of Aspen PREPARED BY: Aspen Global Change Institute, Center of the American West, The Rural Planning Institute, Stratus Consulting Inc., & Wildlife & Wetland Solutions, LLC CLIMATE CHANGE AND ASPEN: AN ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL RESPONSES A report of the Aspen Global Change Institute Prepared for the City of Aspen July 2006 PREPARED BY: Aspen Global Change Institute Center of the American West Rural Planning Institute Stratus Consulting, Inc. Wildlife & Wetland Solutions, LLC T H E A S P E N G L O B A L COVER PHOTO CREDITS CHANGE INSTITUTE Front Cover Powder Skier at Aspen Highlands: Zach Ornitz / Aspen Daily News 100 East Francis Street Aspen CO 81611 Luke Wynen–2006 Winter X-Games Superpipe: http://www.agci.org Zach Ornitz / Aspen Daily News 970 925 7376 [email protected] Grand Tasting Pavilion at the 2005 Aspen Food & Wine Magazine Classic: Perry Johnson / Food & Wine Magazine OUR MISSION The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) is an independent, 501 (c)3 Back Cover non-profit organization. Its mission is Trout: to further the understanding of Earth Mark Fox / The Aspen Times systems and global environmental change through interdisciplinary meetings, Kristina Koznick–2005 Women’s World Cup at Aspen: publications, and educational programs. Mark Fox / The Aspen Times AGCI STAFF JOHN KATZENBERGER Director SUE BOOKHOUT Director of Operations © Copyright 2006 by the Aspen Global Change Institute. MICHELLE MASONE All rights reserved. Program Assistant No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of the Aspen Global Change Institute. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of AGCI, of its directors, officers, staff; or of its sponsors, Although the research described in Chapter 6 has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency contract 68-C-01-004 to T N & Associates, it has not been subject to the Agency’s review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency. No official endorsement should be inferred. This publication is part of the Aspen Global Change Institute’s Elements of Change series. Design by: max_ink [www.max-ink.net] Layout & graphics by: Michelle Masone ISBN 0-9741467-3-0 AUthors & contriBUtors Authors by Chapter Assessment Team CHAPTER 1 HANNAH GOSNELL, Center of the American West John Katzenberger JIM HENDERSON, Stratus Consulting, Inc. Kristine Crandall RUSSEL JONES, Stratus Consulting, Inc. DIANA LANE, Stratus Consulting, Inc. CHAPTER 2 BRIAN LAZAR, Stratus Consulting, Inc. Joel Smith JONATHAN LOWSKY, Wildlife & Wetland Solutions GABE PRESTON, Rural Planning Institute CHAPTER 3 JOHN RICE, Stratus Consulting, Inc. Brian Lazar JOEL SMITH, Stratus Consulting, Inc. BILL TRAVIS, Center of the American West CHAPTER 4 TOM M. L. WIGLEY, National Center for Atmospheric Research Diana Lane ROBERT L. WILBY, Environment Agency of England and Wales Jonathan Lowsky MARK WILLIAMS, University of Colorado at Boulder Joel Smith CHAPTER 5 Hannah Gosnell National Advisory Panel Gabe Preston DAN CAYAN, University of California–San Diego/Scripps Bill Travis HADI DOWLATABADI, University of British Columbia NICHOLAS E. FLORES, University of Colorado–Boulder CHAPTER 6 JOHN HARTE, Rocky Mountain Biological Lab John Rice LINDA JOYCE, USDA Forest Service Jim Henderson L. RUBY LEUNG, Battelle-Pacific Northwest Laboratories Brian Lazar MICHAEL C. MACCRACKEN, The Climate Institute Bill Travis LINDA MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research Sue Bookhout GERALD MEEHL, National Center for Atmospheric Research ROZ NAYLOR, Stanford University APPENDIX A RON NIELSON, USDA Forest Service Joel Smith STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Stanford University APPENDIX B Robert L. Wilby Editorial Review Board APPENDIX C Linda Mearns SUSAN JOY HASSOL, Climate Change Writer Claudia Tebaldi STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Stanford University RANDY UDALL, Community Office of Resource Efficiency APPENDIX D Tom M. L. Wigley Editorial Team APPENDIX E Joel Smith Senior Editor: JOHN KATZENBERGER Associate Editors: SUE BOOKHOUT APPENDIX F MICHELLE MASONE Russel Jones KRISTINE CRANDALL Brian Lazar Assistant Editor: HILARY STUNDA Data Compilation & Representation: MICHELLE MASONE ACKnoWledgements taBle of contents Many individuals and organizations contributed to the development of this report through their expert advice, data, reviews, & financial support. We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of: Additional Research Contributors Craig Anderson at Stratus Consulting for running the SNTHRM models; Andrew Klotz at the Rural Planning Institute for his assistance on Chapter 5; Carolyn Wagner at Stratus Consulting for her assistance on Chapter 2; and Mark Williams at the University of Colorado at Boulder for his work on Chapter 3. C i t y O f A s p e n S t a f f Steve Barwick, City Manager; Lee Cassin, Director of the Environmental Health Department; Stephen Kanipe, Chief Building Official; Mary Lackner, GIS Manager; Dan Richardson, City Global Warming Project Manager; and John Worcester, City Attorney. Local Stakeholders The local stakeholders who attended the June 2005 and January 2006 meetings, and in particular those individuals who donated their time for interviews: Gary Beach, Tom Cardamone, Sharon Clarke, Bob Harris, Connie Harvey, Tim Heng, Andrea Holland-Sears, Doug MacKenzie, Phil Overeynder, Steve Sewell, and John Upthegrove. M o d e l i n g Claudia Tebaldi and Linda Mearns at NCAR for providing the PCMDI modeling; Ruby Leung at Battelle-Pacific Northwest Laboratoriesfor providing the RCM modeling. The international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. Gerald Meehl and Haiyan Teng at NCAR for providing the North American temperature and snow plots. Other Contributors Chris Pyke and Gene Reetz from the EPA; David Eskew from TN&A; Nelson Havey, AGCI Summer 2005 intern; and Colin Laird, Roger Pulwarty, Brad Udall, and Klaus Wolter for their much appreciated expert input. The Aspen Global Warming Alliance The City of Aspen, Community Office of Resource Efficiency, AGCI, The Aspen Institute, Aspen Skiing Company, Rocky Mountain Climate Organization, New Century Transportation Foundation, Holy Cross Energy, Rocky Mountain Institute, Aspen Center for Environmental Studies, Susan Joy Hassol, and Climate Mitigation Services. F u n d i n g The City of Aspen for providing the funds for this report; and the EPA for providing funds to TN & Associates allowing additional research on surface water resources by Stratus, CAW, and AGCI. taBle of contents foreWord . .vv Preface . .viivii EXecUtiVE SUmmarY . ixix ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITIES, IMPACTS, & POTENTIAL RESPONSES 1. INtrodUction. .11 1.1 T HE A SSESSMEN T ’ S B OUND A RIES A ND E MPH A SIS . 11 1.2 C LIM at E A ND A SPEN . 33 1.3 A SSESSMEN T D ESIGN . 77 1.4 B ac KGROUND . 88 1.4.1 Physical Setting. .88 1.4.2 Cultural History. 99 1.4.3 Aspen’s Vulnerabilities and Strengths. 1111 1.4.4 Regional View. .1111 2. past & FUTUre Changes in Aspen’S Climate . .1313 2.1 I N T RODU ct ION . 1313 2.2 R E C EN T C LIM at E T RENDS . 1313 2.3 E MISSIONS A ND C LIM at E S C EN A RIOS . 1414 2.3.1 Time Period. .1515 2.3.2 Key Scenario Components . 1717 2.4 M ODEL S ELE ct ION A ND A PPRO ac H . 1919 2.4.1 MAGICC/SCENGEN . 2020 2.4.2 Regional Climate Modeling: PCM RCM . 2121 2.4.3 Statistical Downscaling: SDSM. .2222 2.4.4 PCMDI Multimodel GCMs with Probability Distributions. .2222 2.5 P ROJE ct IONS OF C LIM at E C H A NGE . .23 2.5.1 MAGICC/SCENGEN. 2323 2.5.2 Regional Climate Modeling. 2727 2.5.3 Statistical Downscaling. 2828 2.5.4 PCMDI Multimodel GCMs with Probability Distributions . .2828 2.6 S UMM A RY . 30 3. Impacts of the Climate Change on MOUntain SnoW. 3131 3.1 I N T RODU ct ION . .31 3.2 S NOW M ODELS . .3131 3.3 H IS T ORI ca L A ND C URREN T C LIM at E D ata . 3232 3.4 S ELE ct ION OF A R EPRESEN tat IVE Y E A R . .33 Climate Change and Aspen: An Assessment of Impacts and Potential Responses i taBle of contents 3.5 R EMO T E S ENSING FOR S C A E S T IM at ES . .3434 3.6 SRM S E T - U P A ND M ODEL R UN s . .3434 3.7 SRM M ODELING R ESULT S . 3535 3.7.1 The 2030’s. 3535 3.7.2 By 2100. .3737 3.7.3 Top of the Mountain Snow Depth Critical Threshold. 3838 3.8 SN T HERM M ODEL R UN A ND R ESULT S . .38 3.9 S UMM A RY . 40 4. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Aspen’S EcologY. 4141 4.1 I N T RODU ct ION . .41 4.2 C H A NGES IN E C OSYS T EM P RO C ESSES . .4141 4.2.1 Changes in Vegetation Types and Carbon Storage. 4141 4.2.2 Changes in Fire Risk. .4444 4.2.3 Changes in Risk of Insect Outbreaks . .4646 4.3 E C OLOGI ca L P att ERNS . 4949 4.3.1 Current Ecological Patterns.
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