INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research | 27 April 2020
Economic Data HIGHLIGHT Latest 2020F Adhi Karya: Management Conference Call Takeaways (ADHI; Rp535; Neutral; TP: 7-DRRR (%), eop 4.50 4.50 Rp1,120) Inflation (YoY %) 2.96 3.30 Alam Sutera Realty 4Q19: Above Expectations (ASRI; Rp112; Neutral; TP: Rp310) US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 15,563 14,257 MNC Group 4Q19 Results: Ahead of Expectations (MNCN; Rp895; Buy; TP: Rp2,200) United Tractors: Mar-20 Operational Number (UNTR; Rp16,225; Buy; TP: Rp22,500) Market Recap April 24th 2020; JCI 4,496.06 Points -97.49 pts (-2.12%); Valued $317mn; Stock Market Data (24 April 2020) Mkt Cap $329bn; USD/IDR 15,563
JCI Index 4,496.1 -2.12% Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 4,980.8 CORPORATE Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 5,198.7 Adhi Karya: Management Conference Call Takeaways (ADHI; Rp535; Neutral; TP: Rp1,120) Market Data Summary* We hosted a conference call with ADHI’s CFO, Entus Asnawi, and IR team. The company revealed a new guidance of 20% decline in new 2020F 2021F contracts/revenues/earnings, 1-34% higher than previously guided, as they believe construction progress and on-going tenders are better than estimated. P/E (x) 11.9 10.7 Further, the Greater Jakarta LRT project got an addendum from Rp22.8tn to P/BV (x) 1.7 1.6 Rp23.3tn. Herewith the conference call takeaways: EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 9.7 Div. Yield (%) 4.0 4.1 New guidance from the company. The company revealed its latest guidance of Net Gearing (%) 23.2 20.9 ca.20% decline in new contracts/revenues/earnings in 2020, 1-34% higher ROE (%) 14.4 15.2 compared to previous guidance. This would translate to 2020 new contracts of EPS Growth (%) 1.6 11.1 Rp28.2tn (+89% YoY; Mansek: Rp17.9tn), revenues of Rp18.2tn (+19% YoY; EBITDA Growth (%) 1.3 6.9 Mansek: Rp16.0), and net profit of Rp560bn (-16% YoY; Mansek: Rp619bn), Earnings Yield (%) 8.4 9.3 implying a 2020 EPS of Rp157 (3.6x PER to current share price). ADHI’s management explained the previous guidance was prepared in early March with * Aggregate of 75 companies in MS research universe, uncertainty regarding on-going infrastructure projects. They believed the representing 63.6%of JCI’s market capitalization current on-going construction and tender progress are better than initially estimated, as the Greater Jakarta LRT and Aceh Sigli are still on-going despite at slower-rate due to new safety standard.
Amendment on Greater Jakarta LRT. The company mentioned that the contract for Greater Jakarta LRT has been amended by the Ministry of Transportation from Rp22.8tn to Rp23.3tn, favoring ADHI as the project’s contractor. ADHI’s management believes the contract addendum would be adequate to cover the cost overrun in the Greater Jakarta LRT project due to changes in designs. In terms of payment, the company is confident to achieve Rp4.5tn-5.0tn of LRT payment this year, as the progress has reached 71% as of April 2020. Note, ADHI has received Rp9tn of the Greater Jakarta LRT payment up to Dec-19.
Payment relaxation and cost overrun. The company has renegotiated with banks to prolong the principal payment and asked for payment relaxation, particularly in supply chain financing from 180 days to 360 days to support the
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company’s cash flow. Meanwhile, for the cost overrun, the management believes the contractor would get the compensation from the government on cost escalation of projects delayed due to COVID-19 outbreaks. However, projects from private owners are unlikely to be renegotiated.
Earnings recovery in 2022. COVID-19 outbreaks will impact the contracts achievement and lower burn-rate ratios. Following the subdued new contracts in 2020, we think the company’s earnings turnaround will happen in 2022. Key risk to our call: longer-than-expected COVID-19.
ADHI REVISED GUIDANCE New guidance ADHI (IDRbn) Initial target New guidance vs 2019 (% YoY) vs Mansek 2020 estimates (%) New contracts 35,200 28,160 89% 58% Revenues 22,700 18,160 19% 14% Earnings 700 560 -16% -9% Implied PE 3.6 Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
Edbert Surya (+6221 5296 9623) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]
Alam Sutera Realty 4Q19: Above Expectations (ASRI; Rp112; Neutral; TP: Rp310)
ASRI booked a strong 4Q19 on the back of land sales to CFLD which took place at the end of the year. 4Q19 revenue grew 96% yoy, bringing FY19 revenue to IDR 3.5tn, -13% yoy, but surpassing street estimates. Bottom line for the FY19 of IDR 1tn was a strong beat to expectations.
Revenue buoyed by land sales. ASRI sold some 40ha to CFLD at the end of the year, which was recognized immediately as revenue as it had fulfilled payment terms, and helped support revenue recognition for the year. Note that this had been lagging with just IDR 34bn prior to the year-end transaction which raked in IDR 812bn for the company. ASRI has an agreement with CFLD to sell 500ha of land in Pasar Kemis over 5 years, hence given the annual 100ha obligation, the traction prior to the last transaction, seemed to be on its way to underperforming the obligation.
4Q19 revenue + 114% qoq, +96% yoy; FY19 revenue -13%, but above expectations. Resultantly, the land sale brought about a strong rebound in 4Q19 revenue, although unit handovers at Pasar Kemis also led to a 20% yoy increase in landed housing revenue. Accumulated, however, FY19 revenue fell, at -13% yoy, as land plot sales revenue nonetheless fell 2% yoy (presales to CFLD amounted to IDR 1.3tn in 2018, significantly higher than IDR 927bn). All segments of development revenues also fell yoy. Investment property income however was up 17% yoy helped mainly by ticket revenues at its GWK park in Bali. Despite 13% yoy decline, FY19 revenue of IDR 3.5tn was a 12%/7% beat to Mansek and consensus’ respective forecasts.
Margin improvement from revenue mix. Overall, 4Q19 margin improvement came about from the revenue mix due to the large contribution from land plot sales, while landed unit handovers also comprised higher end units. For investment properties, the higher ticket revenues also brought about a 7.1 ppt increase in GPM for the segment.
Bottom line beat, forex gain. Resultantly, ASRI’s FY19 PATAMI of IDR 1tn was a 4% yoy growth and was a strong beat to street estimates at 153%/179% of Mansek/consensus’ forecasts for the year. PATAMI was further helped by IDR 210bn in forex gain (VS IDR 317bn forex loss in 2018) – stripping these out, core profit fell 36% yoy (IDR 813bn VS IDR 1.3tn in FY18). Lastly, the sale to CFLD also brought about a decrease in net gearing to 63%, -13.2 ppt yoy.
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Post FY19 results: some refinancing but wall of maturities due. This year ASRI has secured IDR 200bn in land sales to CFLD, 40% of its full-year IDR 500bn target. It has also secured IDR 700bn in financing lines from two local institutions at costs of 9-9.25% p.a.. However, we note that the company has some IDR 7.5tn in maturities due in 2021-2022 from its USD 545 bonds outstanding, which raises liquidity risk.
ASRI 4Q19 RESULTS VS ESTIMATES % of % of IDRbn 3Q19 4Q19 4Q18 QoQ % YoY% 2018 2019 YoY% 2019F 2019C target cons Revenue 677 1,515 772 124% 96% 3,975 3,476 -13% 3,114 3,253 112% 107% Gross profit 369 1,084 419 194% 159% 2,444 2,197 -10% 1,804 1,887 122% 116% Operating profit 269 949 313 252% 203% 1,978 1,692 -14% 1,355 1,389 125% 122% Pretax profit 88 890 371 916% 140% 1,155 1,203 4% 798 803 151% 150% Net profit 49 813 331 1575% 146% 970 1,012 4% 663 564 153% 179%
Gross margin 55% 72% 54% 61% 63% 58% 58% Operating margin 40% 63% 41% 50% 49% 44% 43% Pretax margin 13% 59% 48% 29% 35% 26% 25% Net margin 7% 54% 43% 24% 29% 21% 17%
Total debt 8,073 7,861 7,734 7,734 7,861 Total equity 9,756 10,562 9,551 9,551 10,562 Cash 1,086 1,209 459 459 1,209 Net gearing 71.6% 63.0% 76.2% 76.2% 63.0%
Revenue 677 1,515 772 124% 96% 3,975 3,476 -13% Land plots 217 932 182 329% 412% 1,655 1,621 -2% Landed units 259 419 351 62% 20% 1,324 1,151 -13% High-rise 54 27 43 -50% -38% 268 158 -41% Offices 9 - 69 -100% -100% 289 32 -89% Investment Properties 138 137 127 0% 8% 439 514 17%
Costs 308 431 353 40% 22% 1,531 1,279 -16% Land plots 39 133 4 242% 3244% 301 285 -5% Landed units 122 180 177 47% 1% 554 478 -14% High-rise 31 15 24 -51% -36% 148 87 -41% Offices 4 (0) 43 -107% -101% 163 11 -93% Investment Properties 112 104 105 -7% -1% 365 418 14%
GP 369 1,084 419 194% 159% 2,444 2,197 -10% Land plots 178 799 178 348% 349% 1,353 1,336 -1% Landed units 137 239 173 75% 38% 770 673 -13% High-rise 23 12 19 -49% -40% 120 71 -41% Offices 5 0 26 -95% -99% 126 21 -83% Investment Properties 26 33 22 30% 52% 74 96 30%
GPM 54.5% 71.5% 54.3% 61.5% 63.2% Land plots 82.1% 85.7% 97.8% 81.8% 82.4% Landed units 52.8% 57.1% 49.5% 58.2% 58.4% High-rise 42.8% 43.5% 45.0% 44.8% 45.0% Offices 57.4% N/A 38.3% 43.7% 65.7% Investment Properties 18.7% 24.4% 17.3% 16.8% 18.7% Source: Company, Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
Robin Sutanto (+6221 5296 9572) [email protected]
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MNC Group 4Q19 Results: Ahead of Expectations (MNCN; Rp895; Buy; TP: Rp2,200)
MNC maintained steady 8.8%/4.8% YoY Revenue/Net Income growth in 4Q19, backed by 237bps YoY prime time audience share gain. On full year basis, MNC booked 12.2% YoY revenue growth and 45.8% YoY Net Income jump in FY19, backed by all-round performance from FTA TV and digital businesses. Retain Buy.
4Q19 Revenues of Rp2.08tn (+8.8% YoY, +3.1% QoQ) beat our estimates by 4.6%. Advertisement revenues grew 7.8% YoY, driven by 6.2% YoY growth in Non-Digital Ad Revenues and 26.0% YoY Digital Ad Revenues. In our view, the strong Digital Ad revenue growth was supported by cross-selling of advertising services across channels (FTA TV, in-house OTT, and video streaming portals), riding on the strong popularity of MNC’s FTA TV signature shows in 4Q19, such as Layar Drama Indonesia, Indonesian Idol, etc. Meanwhile, the steady Non-Digital Ad revenue growth was backed by 237bps prime time audience share gain on YoY basis in 4Q19 and business resumption after election season. On a full year basis, MNCN reported Rp8.35tn revenues in FY19, up 12.2% and forming 101%/102% of ours/consensus estimates.
4Q19 EBITDA of Rp915bn (+8.1% YoY, +2.9% QoQ) beat our estimates by 22.1%. Direct cost grew 11.6% YoY in 4Q19, lower than our expectation, as the company maintained efficiency through in-house production focus. Meanwhile, G&A costs only grew 8.5% YoY in 4Q19. As a result, EBITDA margin was well-defended at 44.0% in 4Q19, flattish compared to 3Q19 and 4Q18. On a full year basis, MNCN reported Rp3.71tn EBITDA in FY19, up 16.9% YoY and forming 104.7%/104.4% of ours/consensus estimates.
Meanwhile, D&A expenses growth picked up to 17.0% YoY in 4Q19 vs. 12.5% YoY in 3Q19. As a result, Operating income margin decreased 69bps from 39.1% in 4Q18 to 38.4% in 4Q19. On a full year basis, MNCN reported Rp3.26tn Operating income in FY19, up 19.0% YoY and forming 106%/103.3% of ours/consensus estimates.
4Q19 PATAMI of Rp568bn, (+4.8% YoY, +12.0% QoQ), almost doubled than our estimates. Non-operating costs trended steady QoQ, despite MNC loading in more costly IDR borrowings to pay down USD debts. Effective tax rate came materially lower than our expectation too in 4Q19. In overall, the strong PATAMI beat was driven by the strong revenue growth, lower than expected content costs, and low tax rates. On a full year basis, MNCN reported Rp2.23tn PATAMI in FY19, up 45.8% YoY and forming 114.2%/109% of ours/consensus estimates.
Maintain Buy. MNC boosted its net income as the company regained revenue growth through stronger content quality and digitalization in FY19. Indeed, global Covid-19 outbreak has put uncertainties to national media industry growth and the industry’s FY20 earnings trajectories. But, MNC’s business structure remains solid and its improving competitive strengths should prepare the company for strong recovery post-Covid 19 crisis, in our view.
MNCN: 4Q19 RESULTS % of % of vs in Rp bn 4Q18 3Q19 4Q19 4Q19F YoY QoQ FY18 FY19 YoY FY19F FY19F Mansek Mansek Consensus
Advertisement 1,882 2,003 2,029 2,017 7.8% 1.3% 0.6% 7,242 8,065 11.4% Digital 154 178 194 158 26.0% 9.3% 23.0% 261 697 167.1% Non-Digital 1,727 1,825 1,835 1,858 6.2% 0.5% -1.3% 6,981 7,368 5.5% Content 423 379 448 3096.0% 18.2% 45.1% 1,518 1,740 14.6% Others 7 27 32 29366.7% 21.5% 13.7% 200 114 -43.0% (Elimination) (398) (390) (428) (362) -7.5% -9.6% 17.9% (1,517) (1,566) -3.3% Revenue 1,914 2,019 2,082 1,9918.8% 3.1% 4.6% 7,444 8,353 12.2% 101.1%101.9%
Direct costs 576 808 643 803 11.6% -20.4% -19.9% 2,825 3,030 7.3% G&A expenses 589 443 639 568 8.5% 44.4% 12.4% 1,879 2,064 9.8% (exc. D&A) Operating 1,165 1,251 1,282 1,372 10.0% 2.5% -6.5% 4,704 5,094 8.3% expenses
Operating profit 749 768 800 620 6.9% 4.2% 29.1% 2,740 3,259 19.0% 105.9% 103.3%
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% of % of vs in Rp bn 4Q18 3Q19 4Q19 4Q19F YoY QoQ FY18 FY19 YoY FY19F FY19F Mansek Mansek Consensus % margin 39.1% 38.0% 38.4% 31.1% -69 bps 38 bps 731 bps 36.8% 39.0% 221 bps
D&A 98 121 115 13017.0% -4.8% -11.5% 437 454 4.0%
EBITDA 847 889 915 7508.1% 2.9% 22.1% 3,177 3,713 16.9% 104.7%104.4% % margin 44.3% 44.0% 44.0% 37.7% -30 bps -8 bps 630 bps 42.7% 44.5% 178 bps
Non-Operating (58) (88) (77) (95) -31.9% -14.8% -18.9% (636) (320) 49.7% expenses
Pretax profit 690 680 723 525 4.8% 6.4% 37.8% 2,104 2,939 39.7% % margin 36.1% 33.7% 34.7% 26.4% -134 bps 106 bps 838 bps 28.3% 35.2% 693 bps
Taxes (176) (124) (146) (218)16.8% -17.9% -32.7% (498) (587) -17.8% % effective tax 25.5% 18.3% 20.2% 41.5% -525 bps 198 bps -2121 bps 23.7% 20.0% -371 bps rate
PAT 514 556 577 30712.2% 3.8% 87.7% 1,606 2,353 46.5% % margin 26.9% 27.5% 27.7% 15.4% 83 bps 18 bps 1227 bps 21.6% 28.2% 659 bps
Minority interest 28 (48) (9) (17) 130.7% 82.3% -48.8% (74) (119) -60.6%
PATAMI 542 507 568 2914.8% 12.0% 95.6% 1,531 2,233 45.8% 114.2%109.0% % margin 28.3% 25.1% 27.3% 14.6% -104 bps 216 bps 1270 bps 20.6% 26.7% 616 bps
Audience share 4Q18 3Q19 4Q19 YoY QoQ FY18 FY19 YoY
Prime time RCTI 19.4% 18.2% 18.0% -133 bps -17 bps 18.1% 18.6% 48 bps MNC TV 8.5% 11.1% 11.1% 263 bps 3 bps 9.3% 10.7% 139 bps GLOBAL TV 5.5% 6.8% 6.6% 107 bps -20 bps 6.1% 6.8% 67 bps 255 Total 33.4% 36.1% 35.7% 237 bps -33 bps 33.5% 36.0% bps
Non-Prime Time RCTI 13.0% 13.3% 13.2% 23 bps -10 bps MNC TV 10.1% 9.9% 9.8% -30 bps -10 bps GLOBAL TV 8.6% 8.7% 9.1% 57 bps 47 bps Total 31.6% 31.8% 32.1% 50 bps 27 bps Source: Company Data, Mandiri Sekuritas Research estimates
Kresna Hutabarat (+6221 5296 9542) [email protected] Henry Tedja (+6221 5296 9434) [email protected]
United Tractors: Mar-20 Operational Number (UNTR; Rp16,225; Buy; TP: Rp22,500)
Weak Komatsu sales in 1Q20 was largely expected, but Pama may have performed better than expected due to higher SR and weak rupiah. Persistent decline in coal prices is the key risk on UNTR.
Weak Komatsu sales are expected. Komatsu sales in 1Q20 stood at 617 units (-48% yoy/ -72% qoq), which accounted for 23% of our full year target of 2,650 units. All sectors recorded weaker yoy volumes with the exception of forestry (+9% yoy/95% qoq), which came from a lower base. Both mining and construction sectors declined the most with ytd sales at
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222 units (-61% yoy/+125% qoq) and 165 units (-49% yoy/+9% qoq), respectively. The mining sector’s contribution to overall Komatsu sales declined to 36% from 48% in the same period last year, however still above 2015 and 2016’s overall contribution of 30%. We expect Komatsu sales at 2,650 units (-8% yoy) this year with lower blended ASP, driven by lower big machine sales.
SR is higher than our estimate despite much lower coal price. Pama’s 1Q20 coal production and overburden stood at 27.8mn tons (-9% yoy/-20% qoq) and 212.4 bcm (-10% yoy/-11% mom), respectively, which accounted for 23% and 25% of our FY20 coal production and overburden forecasts. Ytd stripping ratio (SR) at 7.6x (vs 7.7x in 2019) is higher than our forecast of 7.2x despite much lower coal prices of USD 60/ton (vs. USD 83/ton in 2019), which should indicate upside risk on margin from higher SR in addition to potential margin expansions from weak rupiah (-12% ytd), as 40% of the company’s production costs are in rupiah, while revenues are in USD. Potential margin pressure on Pama may come from potential discount/cash back to its customers if coal prices decline to Strong coal sales in 1Q20. Coal sales volume stood at 3.2mn tons (+25% yoy/+58% qoq), which accounted for 35% of our and management’s FY20 targets. Strong coal sales came from thermal coal sales to (+24% yoy/ 63% qoq) and coking coal (+31% yoy /+35% qoq). However, we believe UNTR’s coal sales will be negatively affected by weak coal price outlook, which has declined to USD 62/ton (-9% ytd) with risk of further decline due to the uncertainty over coal demand ahead as a result of COVID-19. Lower gold sales are in-line with company guidance. 1Q20’s gold sales were at 94k oz (-10% yoy/qoq), which represented 26% of our forecast and management’s guidance. UNTR should benefit from higher gold price at USD 1,715/toz (+13% ytd). Around 80% of UNTR’s gold sales have been hedged until 2021. Maintain Buy, Rp22,500 TP. We still like UNTR, despite weak short-term earnings outlook, for its attractive valuation at 0.8x FY20F PBV, less volatile earnings profile relative to coal miners’, healthy balance sheet, and attractive dividend yield of 5.1%. UNTR’S 1Q20 OPERATIONAL DATA UNTR monthly data 1Q20 1Q19 YoY % 4Q19 QoQ % FY20F % ours Pama - coal production 27.8 30.7 -9% 34.8 -20% 120 23% Pama - coal overburden 212.4 235.0 -10% 239.1 -11% 864 25% Stripping Ratio(SR) 7.6 7.7 6.9 7.2 Komatsu sales Agro 69 139 -51% 25 170% Construction 165 322 -49% 151 9% Forestry 162 149 9% 83 95% Mining 222 572 -61% 99 125% Total 617 1,181 -48% 358 72% 2,650 23% Coal sales volume 3.2 2.5 25% 2.0 58% 9.0 35% Gold sales volume 94,000 104,000 -10% 104,000 -10% 360,000 26% Source: Company Ariyanto Kurniawan (+6221 5296 9682) [email protected] Wesley Louis Alianto (+6221 5296 9510) [email protected] Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 6 of 11 Equity Research | 27 April 2020 MARKET Market Recap April 24th 2020; JCI 4,496.06 Points -97.49 pts (-2.12%); Valued $317mn; Mkt Cap $329bn; USD/IDR 15,563 TOP TURNOVER: BBRI BBCA BMRI TLKM UNVR BBNI ASII PGAS BRPT ADRO MDKA SMGR BTPS ICBP TOWR KLBF CPIN PTBA BBTN (56%) ADVANCING SECTOR: construction+0.3% DECLINING SECTOR: financial-3.6%; property-3.5%; auto-3.1%; consumer-1.6%; plantation-1.2%; mining & cement-0.8%; telco-0.7% US stock futures fell on early Asian Friday trade, spurred by doubts about progress in the development of drugs to treat COVID-19 and new evidence of US economic damage caused by the pandemic. Gilead said the findings were inconclusive because the study conducted in China was terminated early. The markets’ sensitivity to news related to the medical treatment of COVID-19 reflected investors’ desperation for a sign of when the global economy might start returning to normal. Indo shares experienced an excessive share of volatility today, with foreign selling into ICBP UNVR and the big banks. While gold and coal helped float the main gauge. Coal plays jumped as several traders at Guangzhou port confirmed retailing prices of Indo thermal coal have recently increased: KKGI+2.6% HRUM+2% INDY flat. Gold plays soared as much as 1.5% to top a one-week high on hopes for the impact of stimulus spending: MDKA flat PSAB+0.5%. GIAA dropped 6.7% to a one-month low as govt bans domestic air travel from April 24-June 1 to limit spread of Covid-19. GIAA lost 12% this week and dropped 65% YTD. Heavy foreign selling into big banks from early opening and became heavier when the European bourses opened down 1.7% on avg: BBRI-6.1% BBNI-5.5% BMRI-4.9% BBCA-3.9%. In the end, the JCI lost 2.1% to 4496 level. Market turnover was steady at $317MN. Foreign participants rose to 40% and came up better seller for28%. Losers beat gainers by 5 to 2. The IDR stabilized at 15563 level. Global funds sold a net of $66.6MN in Indo bonds on Apr 22nd; and withdrew a net $15.7MN in country’s equities on Apr 23rd. Sales Team +6221 527 5375 FROM THE PRESS ADB has Approved USD 1.5 bn Loan to Indonesia The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved USD 1.5 bn loan for Indonesia to support Covid-19 handling. The funding is sourced from the ADB’s Covid-19 response facility package for Asian developing countries amounting USD 20 bn. (ADB) Comments: The loan from ADB is equivalent to Rp 22.5 tn (assuming USD 1 = Rp 15,000) or 20% of the targeted government's external loan withdrawal (gross) in revised state budget 2020. The Government will Delay the Labor Reform Cluster Discussion President Joko Widodo mentioned that the government has decided to delay the discussion of the Labor Reform cluster in the Omnibus Law on Job Creation. This move is to response the objection from labor union regarding several articles in this cluster. (Bisnis Indonesia) Telco operators anticipate data traffic growth during fasting period Telco operators anticipate 15-20% of data traffic growth during fasting period while other services such as voices and SMS will vary across operators. In order to anticipate the data traffic growth, several telco operators have added BTS to enhance their network capacities. Telkomsel, for instance, has added 11,000 BTS LTE, operated additional 69 Compact Mobile BTS, and increased gateway internet capacity to 6,100Gbps. Hutchison Tri Indonesia also has enhanced its network in 216 Point of Interest (POI) across Indonesia. The company also has added more than 4,000 BTS. Meanwhile, other telco operators claimed to have infrastructure to anticipate data traffic increase during fasting period. (CNN Indonesia) Bank Jatim (BJTM) distributes dividends totalling to Rp724bn This is equivalent to 52.3% of FY19’s net profit/Rp 48.2 DPS, following its AGM last Friday. (Kontan) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 7 of 11 Equity Research | 27 April 2020 Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities YTD Chg YTD YTD Indices Last Chg (%) Currency Last Chg (%) Last Chg (%) (%) Chg (%) Chg (%) JCI 4,496.1 -2.1 -28.6 Rp/US$ 15,400 -0.10 -10.1 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 16.94 +2.7 -72.3 Dow Jones 23,775.3 +1.1 -16.7 US$/EUR 1.082 +0.43 +3.6 Copper (US$/mt) 5,119 -0.3 -16.8 Nikkei 19,262.0 -0.9 -18.6 YEN/US$ 107.51 -0.08 +1.0 Nickel (US$/mt) 12,180 +0.6 -12.7 Hang Seng 23,831.3 -0.6 -15.5 SGD/US$ 1.424 +0.04 -5.5 Gold (US$/oz) 1,730 -0.1 +14.0 STI 2,518.2 -1.0 -21.9 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 14,890 -0.7 -13.3 Ishares indo 15.1 -1.8 -41.1 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 2,075 -2.1 -31.5 Coal (US$/ton) 61.1 +0.3 -9.7 Foreign YTD YTD Gov. Bond Chg Fund Flows Last Chg Last Chg Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 135.5 -1.1 -18.5 Chg Yield (bps) (US$mn) (bps) Soybean oil Equity Flow -69.9 -1,170 5Yr 7.31 +6 +87 25.05 -2.2 -27.4 (US$/100gallons) Bonds Flow +6.2 -8,515 10Yr 7.92 +7 +86 Baltic Dry Index 665.0 -1.0 -39.0 Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 8 of 11 Equity Research | 27 April 2020 Equity Valuation Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 MANSEK universe 4,496 6,875 52.9 3,159,938 265,702 295,231 11.9 10.7 1.7 1.6 10.4 9.7 1.6% 11.1% 4.0% 4.1% Banking 1,140,443 116,064 130,304 9.8 8.7 1.5 1.4 N.A. N.A. 15.3% 12.3% 3.5% 4.0% BBCA Neutral 24,600 31,000 26.0 606,513 31,769 34,327 19.1 17.7 3.2 2.8 N.A. N.A. 10.5% 8.1% 1.6% 1.9% BBNI Neutral 3,800 9,000 136.8 70,865 18,879 20,915 3.8 3.4 0.6 0.5 N.A. N.A. 13.4% 10.8% 10.6% 12.0% BBRI Buy 2,630 5,050 92.0 324,275 41,393 47,217 7.8 6.9 1.5 1.3 N.A. N.A. 17.3% 14.1% 5.4% 6.4% BBTN Buy 830 2,500 201.2 8,790 3,389 4,031 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.3 N.A. N.A. 1296.3% 18.9% 6.4% 8.3% BDMN Neutral 2,420 4,900 102.5 23,652 4,698 5,825 4.9 4.0 0.5 0.5 N.A. N.A. -19.7% 24.0% 8.7% 7.0% BJBR Neutral 915 1,770 93.4 9,202 1,838 2,183 5.0 4.2 0.7 0.7 N.A. N.A. 27.4% 18.8% 8.6% 8.6% BJTM Buy 555 790 42.3 8,326 1,554 1,745 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.8 N.A. N.A. 12.9% 12.3% 8.6% 9.1% BNGA Buy 630 1,300 106.3 15,833 4,298 4,832 3.7 3.3 0.4 0.3 N.A. N.A. 18.3% 12.4% 4.6% 5.4% BNLI Neutral 1,220 1,490 22.1 34,212 1,528 1,630 22.4 21.0 1.4 1.3 N.A. N.A. 5.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% PNBN Buy 745 1,630 118.8 17,945 3,466 3,829 5.2 4.7 0.4 0.4 N.A. N.A. 9.1% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% BTPS Buy 2,090 4,200 101.0 16,101 1,720 2,096 9.4 7.7 2.4 1.9 N.A. N.A. 28.5% 21.9% 1.7% 2.1% BFIN Buy 316 900 184.8 4,729 1,532 1,674 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.5 N.A. N.A. 6.4% 9.2% 9.1% 9.7% Construction & materials 123,588 13,794 16,379 9.0 7.5 0.9 0.8 8.2 7.5 9.3% 18.7% 3.1% 2.9% INTP Buy 10,575 21,600 104.3 38,929 2,313 2,759 16.8 14.1 1.6 1.5 7.9 6.5 32.7% 19.3% 1.6% 2.1% SMGR Buy 6,700 16,100 140.3 39,741 4,067 4,913 9.8 8.1 1.1 1.0 6.0 5.2 92.0% 20.8% 3.1% 2.1% ADHI Neutral 535 1,120 109.3 1,905 619 593 3.1 3.2 0.3 0.3 3.8 4.0 -6.8% -4.2% 7.0% 6.5% PTPP Buy 600 2,050 241.7 3,720 981 1,320 3.8 2.8 0.3 0.3 4.4 4.2 2.4% 34.6% 7.7% 7.9% WIKA Buy 865 2,500 189.0 7,751 1,671 1,871 4.6 4.1 0.5 0.5 4.2 2.8 -17.2% 12.0% 4.3% 4.8% WSKT Buy 555 1,660 199.1 7,426 1,245 1,440 6.0 5.2 0.4 0.4 14.5 12.6 -21.7% 15.6% 3.4% 3.9% WTON Buy 220 700 218.2 1,917 586 678 3.3 2.8 0.5 0.4 2.6 2.4 14.3% 15.7% 8.0% 9.2% WSBP Buy 140 360 157.1 3,691 842 954 4.4 3.9 0.5 0.4 4.7 4.1 4.5% 13.3% 10.9% 11.4% JSMR Buy 2,550 7,400 190.2 18,508 1,471 1,851 12.6 10.0 0.9 0.9 11.3 11.6 -33.6% 25.8% 2.4% 1.6% Consumer staples 864,188 45,308 50,498 19.1 17.1 4.4 4.1 12.2 11.0 -7.6% 11.5% 4.1% 4.1% ICBP Buy 9,900 12,350 24.7 115,453 5,414 5,889 21.3 19.6 4.3 3.9 13.1 11.9 7.4% 8.8% 2.3% 2.5% INDF Buy 6,325 9,750 54.2 55,533 4,929 5,272 11.3 10.5 1.5 1.4 7.1 6.8 6.9% 6.9% 5.3% 5.7% MYOR Neutral 2,180 2,850 30.7 48,743 2,152 2,476 22.6 19.7 4.4 3.8 12.2 10.7 15.5% 15.0% 1.4% 1.7% UNVR Neutral 7,500 9,650 28.7 286,125 8,027 8,978 35.6 31.9 44.4 38.7 24.6 22.0 8.3% 11.8% 2.6% 2.8% GGRM Buy 42,800 63,450 48.2 82,351 7,512 8,963 11.0 9.2 1.5 1.4 6.9 6.1 -22.1% 19.3% 3.5% 6.1% HMSP Buy 1,520 2,450 61.2 176,803 12,297 13,379 14.4 13.2 5.1 4.9 10.7 9.7 -22.6% 8.8% 8.9% 6.9% KLBF Buy 1,255 1,950 55.4 58,828 2,742 3,027 21.5 19.4 3.4 3.1 13.4 12.1 7.2% 10.4% 2.3% 2.5% SIDO Buy 1,145 1,450 26.6 17,175 914 1,023 18.8 16.8 4.6 4.2 13.4 11.8 12.8% 11.9% 4.7% 5.2% MLBI Buy 11,000 19,450 76.8 23,177 1,320 1,493 17.6 15.5 15.4 12.8 11.3 10.0 10.4% 13.1% 4.6% 5.1% Healthcare 43,196 1,143 1,325 37.8 32.6 3.2 3.0 13.4 11.6 18.3% 16.0% 0.8% 1.0% MIKA Buy 1,940 3,100 59.8 28,228 794 870 35.6 32.5 5.9 5.3 22.8 20.6 15.1% 9.6% 1.0% 1.2% SILO Buy 4,710 7,150 51.8 7,654 44 100 172.5 76.5 1.2 1.2 6.2 4.9 107.0% 125.6% 0.0% 0.0% HEAL Buy 2,460 5,200 111.4 7,314 304 355 24.0 20.6 3.2 2.8 9.3 8.2 19.4% 16.7% 1.0% 1.1% Consumer discretionary 224,343 24,664 28,533 9.1 7.9 1.1 1.0 6.2 6.0 -18.6% 15.7% 6.0% 4.8% ACES Neutral 1,390 1,800 29.5 23,839 1,183 1,306 20.2 18.3 4.4 3.8 16.0 14.2 6.5% 10.4% 2.3% 2.5% LPPF Neutral 1,265 3,300 160.9 3,691 1,563 1,664 2.4 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 10.4% 6.5% 19.2% 21.2% MAPA Buy 2,100 7,350 250.0 5,986 934 1,159 6.4 5.2 1.6 1.3 3.8 2.9 28.4% 24.1% 3.6% 4.7% MAPI Buy 615 1,200 95.1 10,209 1,088 1,311 9.4 7.8 1.4 1.2 3.7 3.1 21.7% 20.5% 1.3% 1.6% RALS Buy 555 1,600 188.3 3,938 667 705 5.9 5.6 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.2 10.1% 5.7% 10.0% 11.0% ERAA Buy 1,150 1,500 30.4 3,669 140 355 26.1 10.3 0.7 0.7 12.2 7.9 -52.5% 153.2% 0.8% 1.9% ASII Buy 3,630 5,000 37.7 146,955 14,710 17,216 10.0 8.5 1.0 0.9 7.1 7.2 -32.2% 17.0% 6.6% 4.5% SCMA Buy 780 1,800 130.8 11,488 1,566 1,693 7.3 6.8 2.0 1.8 5.1 4.8 35.7% 8.1% 9.5% 10.3% MNCN Buy 895 2,200 145.8 11,101 2,427 2,593 4.6 4.3 0.8 0.7 3.4 3.0 24.1% 6.8% 3.3% 3.5% MSIN Buy 318 650 104.4 1,654 267 316 6.2 5.2 1.1 1.0 3.6 3.4 16.3% 18.1% 8.1% 9.5% PZZA Buy 600 900 50.0 1,813 119 216 15.2 8.4 1.3 1.2 5.8 4.2 -40.3% 80.6% 5.5% 3.3% Commodities 190,830 23,487 24,658 8.1 7.7 0.8 0.8 3.4 3.0 -4.0% 5.0% 4.7% 4.8% UNTR Buy 16,225 22,500 38.7 60,521 8,897 9,130 6.8 6.6 0.9 0.8 3.2 2.7 -15.2% 2.6% 4.4% 4.5% ADRO* Neutral 875 1,350 54.3 27,988 372 353 5.3 5.6 0.5 0.5 2.3 2.1 -7.9% -5.2% 6.7% 6.2% HRUM* Neutral 1,290 1,300 0.7 3,311 17 14 13.3 17.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 -5.9% -21.7% 4.1% 3.2% INDY* Neutral 710 910 28.2 3,699 2 6 156.9 40.9 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.1 N/M 286.9% 0.2% 0.6% Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 9 of 11 Equity Research | 27 April 2020 Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 ITMG* Neutral 6,900 10,450 51.4 7,566 100 101 5.3 5.3 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.3 -20.8% 0.9% 16.1% 16.1% PTBA Neutral 1,850 2,350 27.0 21,317 3,482 3,496 6.1 6.1 1.1 1.1 3.7 3.6 -18.3% 0.4% 12.3% 12.3% ANTM Buy 494 1,100 122.6 11,871 959 1,319 12.4 9.0 0.6 0.5 7.1 6.5 5.5% 37.6% 2.8% 3.9% INCO* Buy 2,350 4,000 70.2 23,350 111 166 14.7 9.9 0.8 0.7 4.4 3.3 93.6% 49.6% 0.0% 0.0% TINS Neutral 456 870 90.8 3,396 394 429 8.6 7.9 0.5 0.5 5.1 4.8 N/M 8.8% 4.1% 4.4% MDKA* Buy 1,270 1,450 14.2 27,810 80 85 24.4 23.1 3.4 3.0 8.9 8.1 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Property & Industrial Estate 70,431 10,555 9,376 6.7 7.5 0.5 0.6 6.7 6.5 -4.7% -11.2% 3.0% 2.9% ASRI Neutral 112 310 176.8 2,201 468 948 4.7 2.3 0.2 0.2 9.4 6.5 -29.4% 102.6%1.8% 1.8% BSDE Buy 660 1,650 150.0 12,703 2,086 2,119 6.1 6.0 0.4 0.4 5.8 5.9 -14.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.8% CTRA Buy 482 1,550 221.6 8,946 1,128 1,366 7.9 6.6 0.6 0.5 6.8 6.5 17.0% 21.0% 1.7% 2.0% JRPT Buy 390 1,050 169.2 5,363 949 1,035 5.6 5.2 0.7 0.6 4.9 4.0 -6.0% 9.0% 4.3% 5.3% PWON Buy 350 800 128.6 16,856 2,532 2,532 6.7 6.7 1.0 0.9 5.3 5.0 0.3% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7% SMRA Neutral 414 1,330 221.3 5,973 550 722 10.9 8.3 0.8 0.7 7.6 6.9 54.4% 31.1% 1.2% 1.2% LPKR Buy 126 360 185.7 8,895 861 812 10.3 11.0 0.3 0.3 10.5 10.3 -54.0% -5.7% 0.8% 0.8% DMAS Buy 173 390 125.4 8,338 1,441 1,086 5.8 7.7 1.2 1.2 5.3 7.3 81.9% -24.7% 13.8% 11.7% BEST Buy 120 400 233.3 1,158 540 700 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.2 3.7 2.9 19.4% 29.8% 9.2% 12.1% Telco 418,570 23,252 25,821 18.0 16.2 2.7 2.6 6.0 5.6 -10.4% 11.1% 4.6% 4.7% EXCL Buy 2,380 3,400 42.9 25,437 2,037 912 12.5 27.9 1.2 1.2 5.7 5.5 185.9% -55.2% 0.8% 2.4% TLKM Buy 3,090 3,800 23.0 306,102 18,520 20,942 16.5 14.6 2.9 2.8 5.6 5.2 -5.0% 13.1% 5.4% 5.5% ISAT Buy 2,000 3,000 50.0 10,868 -1,760 -1,027 -6.2 -10.6 1.0 1.1 4.8 4.3 N/M 41.7% 0.0% 0.0% LINK Buy 2,800 5,500 96.4 8,153 980 1,017 8.4 8.1 1.5 1.4 3.8 3.5 -3.3% 3.8% 6.0% 6.2% TBIG Buy 1,090 1,250 14.7 23,578 1,008 1,194 23.4 19.8 4.4 3.9 11.0 10.4 23.0% 18.4% 2.5% 2.5% TOWR Buy 885 1,070 20.9 44,432 2,468 2,782 18.0 16.0 4.4 3.8 10.3 9.4 5.4% 12.8% 2.7% 2.7% Chemical 1,270 136 163 9.4 7.8 0.4 0.4 5.3 4.7 29.5% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% AGII Buy 414 700 69.1 1,270 136 163 9.4 7.8 0.4 0.4 5.3 4.7 29.5% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% Airlines 2,033 540 837 3.8 2.4 0.4 0.3 3.8 2.3 30.0% 55.0% 0.0% 0.0% GMFI* Neutral 72 275 281.6 2,033 38 59 3.8 2.4 0.4 0.3 3.8 2.3 26.1% 56.3% 0.0% 0.0% Transportation 2,440 199 394 12.3 6.2 0.4 0.4 3.9 3.2 -36.7% 97.8% 3.3% 6.5% BIRD Buy 975 2,575 164.1 2,440 199 394 12.3 6.2 0.4 0.4 3.9 3.2 -36.7% 97.8% 3.3% 6.5% Poultry 78,608 6,561 6,944 12.0 11.3 2.0 1.8 7.5 6.8 16.7% 5.8% 2.3% 2.7% CPIN Neutral 4,080 4,950 21.3 66,904 4,219 4,490 15.9 14.9 2.8 2.5 9.9 9.1 16.4% 6.4% 2.0% 2.3% JPFA Buy 895 1,950 117.9 10,495 2,042 2,127 5.1 4.9 0.8 0.8 4.3 3.7 19.0% 4.1% 4.5% 5.4% MAIN Buy 540 1,150 113.0 1,209 300 327 4.0 3.7 0.5 0.4 3.4 3.1 7.1% 9.3% 3.1% 3.4% Note: - *) net profit in USD mn - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A means Not Applicable Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 10 of 11 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Menara Mandiri Tower I, 25th floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54 – 55, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5374 (Equity Sales) RESEARCH Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer [email protected] +6221 5296 9415 Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research, Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9617 Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical [email protected] +6221 5296 9682 Kresna Hutabarat Telecom, Media [email protected] +6221 5296 9542 Lakshmi Rowter Healthcare, Consumer, Retail [email protected] +6221 5296 9549 Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material [email protected] +6221 5296 9572 Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation [email protected] +6221 5296 9623 Silvony Gathrie Banking, Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9544 Riyanto Hartanto Poultry, Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9488 Henry Tedja Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9434 Wesley Louis Alianto Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9510 Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9406 Imanuel Reinaldo Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9651 INSTITUTIONAL SALES Silva Halim Managing Director [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Lokman Lie Head of Equity Capital Market [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Henry Pranoto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Ilona Carissa Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Michael Taarea Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 RETAIL SALES Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities [email protected] +6221 526 9693 Boy Triyono Jakarta [email protected] +6221 526 5678 Dhanan Febrie Handita Bandung [email protected] +6222 426 5088 Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta [email protected] +62274 560 596 Widodo Solo [email protected] +62271 788 9290 Linawati Surabaya [email protected] +6231 535 7218 Ruwie Medan [email protected] +6261 8050 1825 Aidil Idham Palembang [email protected] +62711 319 900 Yuri Ariadi Pontianak [email protected] +62561 582 293 INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275374. ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.