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INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research | 27 April 2020

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INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research | 27 April 2020 INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research | 27 April 2020 Economic Data HIGHLIGHT Latest 2020F Adhi Karya: Management Conference Call Takeaways (ADHI; Rp535; Neutral; TP: 7-DRRR (%), eop 4.50 4.50 Rp1,120) Inflation (YoY %) 2.96 3.30 Alam Sutera Realty 4Q19: Above Expectations (ASRI; Rp112; Neutral; TP: Rp310) US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 15,563 14,257 MNC Group 4Q19 Results: Ahead of Expectations (MNCN; Rp895; Buy; TP: Rp2,200) United Tractors: Mar-20 Operational Number (UNTR; Rp16,225; Buy; TP: Rp22,500) Market Recap April 24th 2020; JCI 4,496.06 Points -97.49 pts (-2.12%); Valued $317mn; Stock Market Data (24 April 2020) Mkt Cap $329bn; USD/IDR 15,563 JCI Index 4,496.1 -2.12% Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 4,980.8 CORPORATE Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 5,198.7 Adhi Karya: Management Conference Call Takeaways (ADHI; Rp535; Neutral; TP: Rp1,120) Market Data Summary* We hosted a conference call with ADHI’s CFO, Entus Asnawi, and IR team. The company revealed a new guidance of 20% decline in new 2020F 2021F contracts/revenues/earnings, 1-34% higher than previously guided, as they believe construction progress and on-going tenders are better than estimated. P/E (x) 11.9 10.7 Further, the Greater Jakarta LRT project got an addendum from Rp22.8tn to P/BV (x) 1.7 1.6 Rp23.3tn. Herewith the conference call takeaways: EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 9.7 Div. Yield (%) 4.0 4.1 New guidance from the company. The company revealed its latest guidance of Net Gearing (%) 23.2 20.9 ca.20% decline in new contracts/revenues/earnings in 2020, 1-34% higher ROE (%) 14.4 15.2 compared to previous guidance. This would translate to 2020 new contracts of EPS Growth (%) 1.6 11.1 Rp28.2tn (+89% YoY; Mansek: Rp17.9tn), revenues of Rp18.2tn (+19% YoY; EBITDA Growth (%) 1.3 6.9 Mansek: Rp16.0), and net profit of Rp560bn (-16% YoY; Mansek: Rp619bn), Earnings Yield (%) 8.4 9.3 implying a 2020 EPS of Rp157 (3.6x PER to current share price). ADHI’s management explained the previous guidance was prepared in early March with * Aggregate of 75 companies in MS research universe, uncertainty regarding on-going infrastructure projects. They believed the representing 63.6%of JCI’s market capitalization current on-going construction and tender progress are better than initially estimated, as the Greater Jakarta LRT and Aceh Sigli are still on-going despite at slower-rate due to new safety standard. Amendment on Greater Jakarta LRT. The company mentioned that the contract for Greater Jakarta LRT has been amended by the Ministry of Transportation from Rp22.8tn to Rp23.3tn, favoring ADHI as the project’s contractor. ADHI’s management believes the contract addendum would be adequate to cover the cost overrun in the Greater Jakarta LRT project due to changes in designs. In terms of payment, the company is confident to achieve Rp4.5tn-5.0tn of LRT payment this year, as the progress has reached 71% as of April 2020. Note, ADHI has received Rp9tn of the Greater Jakarta LRT payment up to Dec-19. Payment relaxation and cost overrun. The company has renegotiated with banks to prolong the principal payment and asked for payment relaxation, particularly in supply chain financing from 180 days to 360 days to support the Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 11 Equity Research | 27 April 2020 company’s cash flow. Meanwhile, for the cost overrun, the management believes the contractor would get the compensation from the government on cost escalation of projects delayed due to COVID-19 outbreaks. However, projects from private owners are unlikely to be renegotiated. Earnings recovery in 2022. COVID-19 outbreaks will impact the contracts achievement and lower burn-rate ratios. Following the subdued new contracts in 2020, we think the company’s earnings turnaround will happen in 2022. Key risk to our call: longer-than-expected COVID-19. ADHI REVISED GUIDANCE New guidance ADHI (IDRbn) Initial target New guidance vs 2019 (% YoY) vs Mansek 2020 estimates (%) New contracts 35,200 28,160 89% 58% Revenues 22,700 18,160 19% 14% Earnings 700 560 -16% -9% Implied PE 3.6 Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Edbert Surya (+6221 5296 9623) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected] Alam Sutera Realty 4Q19: Above Expectations (ASRI; Rp112; Neutral; TP: Rp310) ASRI booked a strong 4Q19 on the back of land sales to CFLD which took place at the end of the year. 4Q19 revenue grew 96% yoy, bringing FY19 revenue to IDR 3.5tn, -13% yoy, but surpassing street estimates. Bottom line for the FY19 of IDR 1tn was a strong beat to expectations. Revenue buoyed by land sales. ASRI sold some 40ha to CFLD at the end of the year, which was recognized immediately as revenue as it had fulfilled payment terms, and helped support revenue recognition for the year. Note that this had been lagging with just IDR 34bn prior to the year-end transaction which raked in IDR 812bn for the company. ASRI has an agreement with CFLD to sell 500ha of land in Pasar Kemis over 5 years, hence given the annual 100ha obligation, the traction prior to the last transaction, seemed to be on its way to underperforming the obligation. 4Q19 revenue + 114% qoq, +96% yoy; FY19 revenue -13%, but above expectations. Resultantly, the land sale brought about a strong rebound in 4Q19 revenue, although unit handovers at Pasar Kemis also led to a 20% yoy increase in landed housing revenue. Accumulated, however, FY19 revenue fell, at -13% yoy, as land plot sales revenue nonetheless fell 2% yoy (presales to CFLD amounted to IDR 1.3tn in 2018, significantly higher than IDR 927bn). All segments of development revenues also fell yoy. Investment property income however was up 17% yoy helped mainly by ticket revenues at its GWK park in Bali. Despite 13% yoy decline, FY19 revenue of IDR 3.5tn was a 12%/7% beat to Mansek and consensus’ respective forecasts. Margin improvement from revenue mix. Overall, 4Q19 margin improvement came about from the revenue mix due to the large contribution from land plot sales, while landed unit handovers also comprised higher end units. For investment properties, the higher ticket revenues also brought about a 7.1 ppt increase in GPM for the segment. Bottom line beat, forex gain. Resultantly, ASRI’s FY19 PATAMI of IDR 1tn was a 4% yoy growth and was a strong beat to street estimates at 153%/179% of Mansek/consensus’ forecasts for the year. PATAMI was further helped by IDR 210bn in forex gain (VS IDR 317bn forex loss in 2018) – stripping these out, core profit fell 36% yoy (IDR 813bn VS IDR 1.3tn in FY18). Lastly, the sale to CFLD also brought about a decrease in net gearing to 63%, -13.2 ppt yoy. Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 11 Equity Research | 27 April 2020 Post FY19 results: some refinancing but wall of maturities due. This year ASRI has secured IDR 200bn in land sales to CFLD, 40% of its full-year IDR 500bn target. It has also secured IDR 700bn in financing lines from two local institutions at costs of 9-9.25% p.a.. However, we note that the company has some IDR 7.5tn in maturities due in 2021-2022 from its USD 545 bonds outstanding, which raises liquidity risk. ASRI 4Q19 RESULTS VS ESTIMATES % of % of IDRbn 3Q19 4Q19 4Q18 QoQ % YoY% 2018 2019 YoY% 2019F 2019C target cons Revenue 677 1,515 772 124% 96% 3,975 3,476 -13% 3,114 3,253 112% 107% Gross profit 369 1,084 419 194% 159% 2,444 2,197 -10% 1,804 1,887 122% 116% Operating profit 269 949 313 252% 203% 1,978 1,692 -14% 1,355 1,389 125% 122% Pretax profit 88 890 371 916% 140% 1,155 1,203 4% 798 803 151% 150% Net profit 49 813 331 1575% 146% 970 1,012 4% 663 564 153% 179% Gross margin 55% 72% 54% 61% 63% 58% 58% Operating margin 40% 63% 41% 50% 49% 44% 43% Pretax margin 13% 59% 48% 29% 35% 26% 25% Net margin 7% 54% 43% 24% 29% 21% 17% Total debt 8,073 7,861 7,734 7,734 7,861 Total equity 9,756 10,562 9,551 9,551 10,562 Cash 1,086 1,209 459 459 1,209 Net gearing 71.6% 63.0% 76.2% 76.2% 63.0% Revenue 677 1,515 772 124% 96% 3,975 3,476 -13% Land plots 217 932 182 329% 412% 1,655 1,621 -2% Landed units 259 419 351 62% 20% 1,324 1,151 -13% High-rise 54 27 43 -50% -38% 268 158 -41% Offices 9 - 69 -100% -100% 289 32 -89% Investment Properties 138 137 127 0% 8% 439 514 17% Costs 308 431 353 40% 22% 1,531 1,279 -16% Land plots 39 133 4 242% 3244% 301 285 -5% Landed units 122 180 177 47% 1% 554 478 -14% High-rise 31 15 24 -51% -36% 148 87 -41% Offices 4 (0) 43 -107% -101% 163 11 -93% Investment Properties 112 104 105 -7% -1% 365 418 14% GP 369 1,084 419 194% 159% 2,444 2,197 -10% Land plots 178 799 178 348% 349% 1,353 1,336 -1% Landed units 137 239 173 75% 38% 770 673 -13% High-rise 23 12 19 -49% -40% 120 71 -41% Offices 5 0 26 -95% -99% 126 21 -83% Investment Properties 26 33 22 30% 52% 74 96 30% GPM 54.5% 71.5% 54.3% 61.5% 63.2% Land plots 82.1% 85.7% 97.8% 81.8% 82.4% Landed units 52.8% 57.1% 49.5% 58.2% 58.4% High-rise 42.8% 43.5% 45.0% 44.8% 45.0% Offices 57.4% N/A 38.3% 43.7% 65.7% Investment Properties 18.7% 24.4% 17.3% 16.8% 18.7% Source: Company, Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Robin Sutanto (+6221 5296 9572) [email protected] Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 11 Equity Research | 27 April 2020 MNC Group 4Q19 Results: Ahead of Expectations (MNCN; Rp895; Buy; TP: Rp2,200) MNC maintained steady 8.8%/4.8% YoY Revenue/Net Income growth in 4Q19, backed by 237bps YoY prime time audience share gain.
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