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Santander Bank Polska Wednesday, January 30, 2019 | special comment Santander Bank Polska – 2018 Q4 Results Rating: accumulate | target price: PLN 400.00 | current price: PLN 363.80 SPL PW; SPL1.WA | Banks, Poland Analysts: Michał Konarski +48 22 438 24 05, Mikołaj Lemańczyk +48 22 438 24 07 ▪ Santander Bank Polska ("Santander") generated net ▪ By taking over DBPL, Santander saw its total capital ratio income of PLN 767.1m in Q4 2018, representing an on a consolidated basis decrease to 16.70%, with the increase of 40% from the same period in 2017 and a Tier 1 ratio edging lower to 14.83%, a level safely within rebound of 52% from the previous quarter. the minimum requirement (14.77%) the Bank has to meet ▪ Even so, the final bottom-line amount shows a miss of to be able to distribute 100% of FY2018 earnings as 18% relative to the consensus estimate, as well as falling dividends. The consolidated TCR is currently slightly below 12% short of our PLN 868.9m forecast. The reasons why the 16.89% requirement. included lower-than-expected fee income, higher risk ▪ On a standalone basis, the solvency ratios are well above reserves after a PLN 131m one-time boost not accounted the minimum requirements at 16.82% Tier 1 and 19.01% for in analysts' forecasts, and a tighter gain on the bargain TCR. acquisition of Deutsche Bank Polska at PLN 388m vs. ▪ Santander can probably bring its consolidated TCR up to PLN 466m anticipated. the required level, for example by shifting part of net ▪ Aside from negative goodwill, other one-time events that earnings to equity. shaped the fourth-quarter results included PLN 130.5m in ▪ The only P&L category which we found disappointing additional risk reserves recognized with the acquisition of when it comes to the fourth-quarter showing was the Deutsche Bank Polska (DBPL), a PLN 2m loss on an NPL low income from fees and commissions. Otherwise, sale, PLN 26.5m extra costs related to rebranding, and provisioning in the period exceeded estimates by a PLN 37.2m spent on post-merger integration. The net modest 2% on a recurring basis, operating costs did impact of these events was positive to the tune of not turn out as high as might have been expected, PLN 192m before taxes. and net interest income surprised on the upside. ▪ With DBPL incorporated into the consolidated financial statements for the first time, the fourth-quarter figures are ▪ On the more pressing question of dividends, not comparable to prior periods. Santander mostly fulfills the requirements for a ▪ Net interest income amounted to PLN 1,534m in Q4 2018, 100% payout ratio, and it can easily fix the small rising 8% q/q and 11% y/y, and showing a narrow beat consolidated TCR shortfall if necessary. As a over the consensus. reminder, the Bank has plans to draw on retained ▪ Net interest margin contracted by 13bp compared to the earnings, standing at about PLN 1.5bn, when previous quarter, due partly to the fact that DBPL did not planning this year's distribution to shareholders. start to contribute until mid-quarter, along with surplus liquidity reported at the end of the year. Earnings Conference Details: ▪ Fee income was down 4% on a q/q and y/y basis at Date: 30 January 2019 PLN 497.3m, falling 7% short of consensus. The Time: 11:30 a.m. disappointment was due mainly to falling loan fees, down Venue: Warsaw, ul. Jana Pawła II 17 52% on the quarter. ▪ Risk reserves increased to PLN 422.8m in Q4 after the PLN Dial-In: 130.5m one-time extra charge-off related to the DBPL PL: +48 22 100 14 91, PIN: 9514 acquisition. On a recurring basis, the cost of risk for Q4 EN +48 22 100 14 92, PIN: 7536 would be 1bp lower than in Q3 at 80bp. 2018 Q4 actuals vs. expectations (PLN m) Q4'18 consensus differ. Q4’18E differ. Net interest income 1,534.2 1,514.0 1.3% 1,535.0 -0.1% Fee income 497.3 535.0 -7.1% 567.4 -12.4% Operating expenses -917.4 -956.0 -4.0% -961.7 -4.6% Loan loss provisions -422.8 -286.0 47.8% -283.5 49.1% Net income 767.1 930.0 -17.5% 868.9 -11.7% Source: SPL, E - estimates by Dom Maklerski mBanku; Consensus estimates provided by PAP Overview of 2018 Q4 Results Y/Y pct. Q/Q pct. (PLN m) Q4'17 Q3'18 Q4'18 change change Net interest income 1,379.4 1,422.2 1,534.2 11.2 7.9 Fee income 515.4 515.7 497.3 -3.5 -3.6 Trading income 63.1 91.3 56.0 -11.3 -38.7 Other income 52.4 25.8 34.2 -34.8 32.3 Non-interest income 630.9 632.7 587.4 -6.9 -7.2 Total income 2,010.3 2,054.9 2,121.6 5.5 3.2 Operating expenses -839.9 -882.5 -917.4 9.2 4.0 Other costs -30.2 -34.1 -48.0 58.6 40.7 Total costs -870.2 -916.6 -965.4 10.9 5.3 Operating income 1,140.1 1,138.3 1,156.2 1.4 1.6 Loan loss provisions 212.9 253.7 422.8 98.5 66.7 Equity in profits/losses of associates 19.7 16.8 20.4 3.5 21.9 Negative goodwill 0.0 0.0 387.7 n.m. n.m. Pre-tax income 946.9 901.4 1,141.6 20.6 26.6 Tax -215.5 -201.3 -168.3 -21.9 -16.4 Non-controlling interests -75.4 -79.1 -73.4 -2.6 -7.1 Net income 656.0 621.0 899.8 37.2 44.9 Bank tax 107.0 115.1 132.7 24.1 15.4 Net income after bank tax 549.0 505.9 767.1 39.7 51.6 Source: Santander Bank Polska, Dom Maklerski mBanku 2 List of abbreviations and ratios contained in the report. EV – net debt + market value (EV – economic value) EBIT – Earnings Before Interest and Taxes EBITDA – EBIT + Depreciation and Amortisation PBA – Profit on Banking Activity P/CE – price to earnings with amortisation MC/S – market capitalisation to sales EBIT/EV – operating profit to economic value P/E – (Price/Earnings) – price divided by annual net profit per share ROE – (Return on Equity) – annual net profit divided by average equity P/BV – (Price/Book Value) – price divided by book value per share Net debt – credits + debt papers + interest bearing loans – cash and cash equivalents EBITDA margin – EBITDA/Sales OVERWEIGHT (OW) – a rating which indicates that we expect a stock to outperform the broad market NEUTRAL (N) – a rating which indicates that we expect the stock to perform in line with the broad market UNDERWEIGHT (UW) – a rating which indicates that we expect the stock to underperform the broad market Recommendations of Dom Maklerski mBanku : A recommendation is valid for a period of 6-9 months, unless a subsequent recommendation is issued within this period. Expected returns from individual recommendations are as follows: BUY – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will be at least 15% ACCUMULATE – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from 5% to 15% HOLD – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from –5% to +5% REDUCE – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from -5% to -15% SELL – we expect that an investment will bear a loss greater than 15% Recommendations are updated at least once every nine months. mBank S.A. with its registered office in Warsaw at Senatorska 18 renders brokerage services in the form of derived organisational unit—Brokerage Office which uses name Dom Maklerski mBanku. The present report expresses the knowledge as well as opinions of the authors on day the report was prepared. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. The present report was prepared with due care and attention, observing principles of methodological correctness and objectivity, on the basis of sources available to the public, which Dom Maklerski mBanku considers reliable, including information published by issuers, shares of which are subject to recommendations. However, Dom Maklerski mBanku, in no case, guarantees the accuracy and completeness of the report, in particular should sources on the basis of which the report was prepared prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or not fully consistent with the facts. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any financial instruments and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. It is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document nor any copy hereof is not to be distributed directly or indirectly in the United States, Australia, Canada or Japan. Recommendations are based on essential data from the entire history of a company being the subject of a recommendation, with particular emphasis on the period since the previous recommendation. Investing in shares is connected with a number of risks including, but not limited to, the macroeconomic situation of the country, changes in legal regulations as well as changes on commodity markets. Full elimination of these risks is virtually impossible. mBank S.A.
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