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CEE113: Patterns of Sustainability

John Kunz Patterns of Sustainability Big Ideas

 BIG impacts of current life style  Hard question of what lessons to learn from development we have experienced

2 Week 1: 3 April Motivating Problems: Global Perspective

 Related problems: – Big and global: global warming – Buildings contribute to global warming: buildings generate 40%

of human related CO2 emissions – Daily operations: Big and unnecessary building energy operating cost

– Relationship to Sustainability ? …

CEE 113 April 17 3

Atmospheric CO2 is rising

800,000 year CO2 history 1769: James

Watt invents steam engine

(PPM)

2 2

http://www.globalchange.go v/publications/reports/ scientific-assessments/us- impacts/full-report/global- climate-change

Year Year Source: Sustainable Energy — without the hot air: MacKay, 2008, 4 Huge societal changes are required to lower carbon footprint: Predicted impact of global warming

US: ~24 tCO2/ y per person

Source: Sustainable Energy — without the hot air: MacKay, 2008, based on Baer and Mastrandrea (2006)

CEE 113 April 17 5 Motivating Problem: US Buildings

U.S. Department of Energy Buildings Energy Data Book, Sept. 2008

CEE 113 April 17 6 Motivating Problem: Our Industry

 (Contributing) reasons for Inefficient Operation – Virtual absence of validated actual performance measurements re design-phase prediction data – Lack of validated virtual testing tools & practices – Poor Design – Poor Construction – Absence of Life Cycle Information Transfer – Absence of standardized practices during operation

7 CEE 113 April 17 Y2E2

4 story building with ~130,000 sf • Labs, offices, mechanical room, server room, conference rooms, class rooms • Bathrooms, electrical rooms, data and storage rooms

CEE 113 April 17 8 Key Y2E2 concepts

 Building Management System (BMS) • ~2,370 HVAC system measurement points: • 1,440 samples/point/day • ~3.5M samples/day

CEE 113 April 17 9 Key Y2E2 concepts

 Building Management System (BMS) • ~2,370 HVAC system measurement points: • 1,440 samples/point/day • ~3.5M samples/day  BMS status viewer: Altitude system – Shows current status; system diagrams

CEE 113 April 17 10 Key Y2E2 concepts

CEE 113 April 17 11 GLOBAL SITUATION – SOME DETAIL

CEE 113 April 17 12 CO2 rise has many causes, but no one single cause … or solution (2002) Buildings

Source: Steve Chu, LBNL, AAAS 2007 keynote 13 No single group can fix problem … Per capita CO2 emissions - 2000

Global average

2050 objective

Copyright David JC MacKay 2009. 14 Per capita CO2 emissions - historical Many of those responsible are no longer living … Many who will be impacted are unborn …

Global 2050 average objective

15 All nations have a difficult challenge

Source: Steve Chu, LBNL, AAAS 2007 keynote 16 Each of us has insignificant impact, but we must all act to have impact: My personal part …

2840 watts = 24.8 Mwh/yr  15.4 M-tons

CO2/year

17 Huge societal change is required to lower carbon footprint: Looming Global-Scale Failures and Missing Institutions

“To address our common threats we need greater interaction among existing institutions, as well as new institutions, to help construct and maintain a global-scale social contract.”

SCIENCE VOL 325 11 SEPTEMBER 2009 18 Our (ethical and engineering)

(PPM)

2 2 dilemma

“Half-life” of CO2 in the atmosphere (apparently) is about a century Dilemma: Since – Institutions cannot fix problem – No one change can fix problem

– Many responsible for today’s rise in atmospheric CO2 are no longer here; most who will be affected are not yet born – Each of us has insignificant impact, but we must all act to have impact – Let’s learn how to interpret the numbers we can get

CEE 113 April 17 19

(PPM) 2 2 Our dilemma

“Half-life” of CO2 in the atmosphere (apparently) is about a century Dilemma: Since – Institutions cannot fix problem – No one change can fix problem

20 CEE 113 April 17 20

(PPM) 2 2 Our dilemma

“Half-life” of CO2 in the atmosphere (apparently) is about a century Dilemma: Since – Institutions cannot fix problem – No one change can fix problem

21 CEE 113 April 17 21

(PPM) 2 2 Our dilemma

“Half-life” of CO2 in the atmosphere (apparently) is about a century Dilemma: Since – Institutions cannot fix problem – No one change can fix problem

CEE 113 April 17 22 Buildings represent ~38% of Energy -- directly

 Primary Energy (Quad BTUs) consumption by sector

. Source: US DOE

23 CEE 113 April 17 23 Lighting is the greatest energy user in commercial buildings

 Primary Energy consumption (Quad BTUs)

. Source: US DOE 24 Residential energy use can be improved

 Residential energy scenarios (Quad BTUs)

. Source: US DOE 25 U.S. building sector (residential and commercial):

 employs 8 million people; ~10% of US GDP;  ~115 million households, 5 million commercial buildings;  energy consumption split ~50:50 commercial & residential  US: 72% of electricity, 55% of natural gas, 40% of primary energy (> transportation or industry); – per year, 40 quads of primary energy, 2.7 trillion KW‐hr, 40% of CO2 emissions (2300 MMT; 7.5 MMTCO2 equivalent/person);  utility bill/year: ~$400B; construction volume ~$1,000B  By 2030, EIA estimates 16% growth in energy consumption  +200 GW electrical capacity

Arun Majumdar, UCB, Testimony Regarding Reducing Energy Consumption in Buildings, US Senate Committee on Energy and

Natural Resources CEE 113 April 17 26 Better building can save money!

Building Industry

27 CEE 113 April 17 27 We use lots of energy in our buildings …

 We can control our use of water, electricity, consumption and our acquisitions

Source: US Green Building Council 28

CEE 113 April 17 28 U.S. building sector (residential and commercial):

Arun Majumdar, UCB, Testimony Regarding Reducing Energy Consumption in Buildings, US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources 29 CEE 113 April 17 29 An example: Malmo, Sweden

But  Energy: 20 of 20 buildings used more than predicted The best example of – Prefabrication needed for sustainable development in intended energy the world: performance – Best design and analysis  Land: much greater density methods (~2000) needed even for next project – Best construction – Development model did methods not last even a decade – Project provides some  Data granularity: so coarse good data on that improvement difficult to performance vs. plan predicted  Human capital: people on project mostly lost to next phase

30 CEE 113 April 17 30 Malmo, Sweden: Actual energy much worse than Predicted

CEE 113 April 17 31 An example: Malmo, Sweden

32 CEE 113 April 17 32 Malmo, Sweden: Why the discrepancies?

 Overly optimistic calibration factors from window vendors  Analysis program did not properly consider thermal bridges  Stick construction leaks air; only prefabrication of skin works

CEE 113 April 17 33 Motivating Problem: Oberlin College

 “Performance is more compelling than design awards” (Ivanovich 2005)  Big idea: Be careful -- predicted performance can be different than actual

CEE 113 April 17 34 Oberlin College

CEE 113 April 17 35 Oberlin College

 Source: John Scofield

CEE 113 April 17 36 Oberlin College

Energy consumption exceeds predicted

Source: John Scofield - http://www.oberlin.edu/physics/Scofield/ASHRAEcomment.htm

CEE 113 April 17 37 Oberlin College

 Energy Recovery Ventilation (ERV)  Source: John Scofield CEE 113 April 17 38 Motivating Problem: LEED1 Astray?

 The APS study concluded, however, that the nation’s 121 LEED buildings actually use 30% more energy per square foot than the average for U.S. buildings. – They used the median value for the LEED buildings and the mean for others,” explains Richter. Using the mean for both types significantly bumps up the ‘green’ buildings’ calculated energy use.

1 Leadership in Environmental and Energy Design http://www.businessweek.com/investing/green_business/archives/2008/09/ building_efficiency_leed_astray.html

CEE 113 April 17 39 Details of LEED buildings … Illinois

Regional Green Building Case Study Project: 40 A post‐occupancy study of LEED projects in Illinois, Fall 2009 http://www.usgbc-chicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/Regional-Green-Building-Case-Study-Project-Year-1-Report.pdf Building Efficiency: LEED Astray?

121 LEED buildings (Turner and Frankel 2008)

CEE 113 April 17 41 Motivating Problem: Stanford Y2E2 It performs well, but << design objective

 Predictions (Tobias Maile) based on initial designer model

42 Proposed Stanford Green Dorm

The best example of  But sustainable development on – Scale: Unknown methods campus: to design for the much – Laudable objectives for greater density needed to fit many units on campus, energy, resource use and e.g., 2,300 for SU education medical center – Planned good data to – Dorm fine for students, compare predicted and but what are lessons for performance families of professionals? – Data collection methods – Uncertain transfer of might transfer to next methods and people for projects next projects – Data will probably not transfer

CEE 113 April 17 43 CIFE 2015 Sustainability objective: 25% better than 2002 – overtaken by events

 US EISA 2007: by 2010, GSA must use 55% less energy than average; by 2030 all new facilities net zero energy  US Executive Order 13423: reduce facility energy use per square foot by 30 percent by the end of FY 2015, relative to 2003 baseline, i.e., metered annual energy consumption ~55 KBTU/GSF  California 2006 law: reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020

CEE 113 April 17 44 Collective action can have impact: Energy/capita – US, California

Source: Steve Chu, LBNL, AAAS 2007 keynote

CEE 113 April 17 45 Y2E2: 2009 Findings

Performance Surprises  Most points make sense:  New second law of ranges normal; peaks thermodynamics: whole << explainable sum of parts  Hot water supply temp 150oF  Viscous water: Driving (design temp180oF) pressure ~600psi  Heat recovery valve position  Space temp = 725oF cycles rapidly (2 of 3)  Missing data values  Radiant lab slab control (outages?) strategy ≠ design sequence  Some points labeled with of operations incorrect locations  Night flushing not obviously  Huge effort to analyze and working as designed diagnose performance:  12 students * 10 weeks looked at ~10% of building

CEE 113 April 17 46 2009 Y2E2 class findings at a glance

 Some HVAC components and systems work well  Some components and systems do not work well – Simple: many labeling and calibration errors – Potentially significant: night flush; valve cycling behavior – Confusing: ∑electric submeter kWhs << steam plant  Enormous effort to interpret data: – 12 students @~100hours/quarter each to analyze ~10% of Y2E2 ~2400 data points – No effort at commissioning to “fix” problems – More than a year to prepare data acquisition system to enable this class

CEE 113 April 17 47 2009 Y2E2: Findings

CEE 113 June 3 48 Y2E2 data set

 Stanford Y2E2 – 2,370 points – 1 minute interval – Not all setpoints are logged – Submetering of light and plug loads at floor level – Four representative offices with very detailed measurements

CEE 113 April 17 49 Y2E2 energy cost comparison (designer vs measured)

 A (bad news): ~67% Gap: Actual - initial predicted  B (good news): ~37% Improvement: Actual - new baseline

CEE 113 April 17 50 Y2E2 energy cost comparison (designer)

Post occupancy analysis findings by designer:  Consuming ~53% more energy ($) than non- calibrated early design model ($319,000/yr predicted vs. $491,000/yr actual)  Consuming ~54% more steam than predicted by Calibrated Design model ($83,000 actual vs. $54,000 predicted)  Consuming ~ electrical and chilled water energy cost as predicted by Calibrated Design model ($408,000 actual vs. $412,000 predicted)

CEE 113 April 17 51 Y2E2 energy cost comparison (designer)

Post occupancy conclusions by designer:  Since Y2E2 is exceeding savings estimates by $50,000/yr, the financial analysis carried out during design would show a better return on investment if carried out today.  The relative performance appears to be in line with the early model predictions and exceeds the 37% energy reduction target established in the Basis of Design.

CEE 113 April 17 52 Stanford dish

Patterns  60. Accessible green  62. High places  66. Holy Ground  67. Common land  69. Public outdoor room

CEE 113 April 17 53 Pattern 60: Accessible green

Build one open public green within three minutes’ walk – about 750 feet – of every house and workplace. – Greens >= 150 ft across, >= 60K ft2

54 CEE 113 April 17 54 62. High places

"The instinct to climb up to some high place, from which you can look down and survey your world, seems to be a fundamental human instinct. Therefore, build occasional high places as landmarks throughout the city. They can be a natural part of the topography, or towers, or part of the roofs of the highest local building -- but, in any case, they should include a physical climb."

CEE 113 April 17 55 66. Holy Ground

In all cultures … whatever it is that is holy will only be felt as holy, if it is hard to reach, if it requires layers of access, waiting, levels - of approach, a gradual unpeeling, gradual revelation, passage through a series of gates. • Inner City of Peking; • anyone who has audience with the Pope must wait in each of seven waiting rooms; • Aztec sacrifices took place on stepped pyramids, each step closer to the sacrifice; • Ise shrine, the most famous shrine in Japan, is a nest of precincts, each one inside the other.

CEE 113 April 17 56 67. Common land

– Give over 25% of the land in house clusters to common land that touches, or is near, homes that share it. – Be careful of the auto

CEE 113 April 17 57 69. Public outdoor room

– In every neighborhood and work community, make a piece of common land into an outdoor room  Partly enclosed, with some roof, w/o walls

CEE 113 April 17 58 Method to use patterns

1. Start with list of all patterns 2. Find one pattern that best describes your project 3. Note related smaller patterns 4. Select next most descriptive from all noted patterns 5. Exclude a pattern when in doubt 6. Iterate 4-5 until you have all patterns you want 7. Add own patterns 8. Change patterns if you want

As in poetry, the most interesting spaces have many (harmonious) patterns

CEE 113 April 17 59 Brundtland Commission: Our Common Future

 Sustainable development - meets needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.  Key concepts of sustainable development: – needs in particular the essential needs of the world's poorest people, to which they should be given overriding priority; – limitations of technology and social organization on the environment's ability to meet both present and future needs. – intergenerational equity

CEE 113 April 17 60 Brundtland Commission: Our Common Future

 Environment is beyond physicality … includes social and political atmospheres and circumstances.

 Development not just about how poor countries can ameliorate their situation, but what entire world, including developed countries, can do to ameliorate our common situation.

CEE 113 April 17 61 Notices

 Class next week: need to plan

62 Week 1: 3 April