CEE113: Patterns of Sustainability John Kunz Patterns of Sustainability Big Ideas BIG impacts of current life style Hard question of what lessons to learn from development we have experienced 2 Week 1: 3 April Motivating Problems: Global Perspective Related problems: – Big and global: global warming – Buildings contribute to global warming: buildings generate 40% of human related CO2 emissions – Daily operations: Big and unnecessary building energy operating cost – Relationship to Sustainability ? … CEE 113 April 17 3 Atmospheric CO2 is rising 800,000 year CO2 history 1769: James Watt invents steam engine (PPM) 2 CO http://www.globalchange.go v/publications/reports/ scientific-assessments/us- impacts/full-report/global- climate-change Year Year Source: Sustainable Energy — without the hot air: MacKay, 2008, 4 Huge societal changes are required to lower carbon footprint: Predicted impact of global warming US: ~24 tCO2/ y per person Source: Sustainable Energy — without the hot air: MacKay, 2008, based on Baer and Mastrandrea (2006) CEE 113 April 17 5 Motivating Problem: US Buildings U.S. Department of Energy Buildings Energy Data Book, Sept. 2008 CEE 113 April 17 6 Motivating Problem: Our Industry (Contributing) reasons for Inefficient Operation – Virtual absence of validated actual performance measurements re design-phase prediction data – Lack of validated virtual testing tools & practices – Poor Design – Poor Construction – Absence of Life Cycle Information Transfer – Absence of standardized practices during operation 7 CEE 113 April 17 Y2E2 4 story building with ~130,000 sf • Labs, offices, mechanical room, server room, conference rooms, class rooms • Bathrooms, electrical rooms, data and storage rooms CEE 113 April 17 8 Key Y2E2 concepts Building Management System (BMS) • ~2,370 HVAC system measurement points: • 1,440 samples/point/day • ~3.5M samples/day CEE 113 April 17 9 Key Y2E2 concepts Building Management System (BMS) • ~2,370 HVAC system measurement points: • 1,440 samples/point/day • ~3.5M samples/day BMS status viewer: Altitude system – Shows current status; system diagrams CEE 113 April 17 10 Key Y2E2 concepts Building Management System (BMS) • ~2,370 HVAC system measurement points: • 1,440 samples/point/day • ~3.5M samples/day BMS status viewer: Altitude system – Shows current status; system diagrams SEE-IT BMS data viewer CEE 113 April 17 11 GLOBAL SITUATION – SOME DETAIL CEE 113 April 17 12 CO2 rise has many causes, but no one single cause … or solution (2002) Buildings Source: Steve Chu, LBNL, AAAS 2007 keynote 13 No single group can fix problem … Per capita CO2 emissions - 2000 Global average 2050 objective Copyright David JC MacKay 2009. 14 Per capita CO2 emissions - historical Many of those responsible are no longer living … Many who will be impacted are unborn … Global 2050 average objective Copyright David JC MacKay 2009. 15 All nations have a difficult challenge Source: Steve Chu, LBNL, AAAS 2007 keynote 16 Each of us has insignificant impact, but we must all act to have impact: My personal part … 2840 watts = 24.8 Mwh/yr 15.4 M-tons CO2/year x 17 Huge societal change is required to lower carbon footprint: Looming Global-Scale Failures and Missing Institutions “To address our common threats we need greater interaction among existing institutions, as well as new institutions, to help construct and maintain a global-scale social contract.” SCIENCE VOL 325 11 SEPTEMBER 2009 18 Our (ethical and engineering) (PPM) 2 dilemma CO “Half-life” of CO2 in the atmosphere (apparently) is about a century Dilemma: Since – Institutions cannot fix problem – No one change can fix problem – Many responsible for today’s rise in atmospheric CO2 are no longer here; most who will be affected are not yet born – Each of us has insignificant impact, but we must all act to have impact – Let’s learn how to interpret the numbers we can get CEE 113 April 17 19 (PPM) 2 Our dilemma CO “Half-life” of CO2 in the atmosphere (apparently) is about a century Dilemma: Since – Institutions cannot fix problem – No one change can fix problem – Many responsible for today’s rise in atmospheric CO2 are no longer here; most who will be affected are not yet born – Each of us has insignificant impact, but we must all act to have impact – Let’s learn how to interpret the numbers we can get 20 CEE 113 April 17 20 (PPM) 2 Our dilemma CO “Half-life” of CO2 in the atmosphere (apparently) is about a century Dilemma: Since – Institutions cannot fix problem – No one change can fix problem – Many responsible for today’s rise in atmospheric CO2 are no longer here; most who will be affected are not yet born – Each of us has insignificant impact, but we must all act to have impact – Let’s learn how to interpret the numbers we can get 21 CEE 113 April 17 21 (PPM) 2 Our dilemma CO “Half-life” of CO2 in the atmosphere (apparently) is about a century Dilemma: Since – Institutions cannot fix problem – No one change can fix problem – Many responsible for today’s rise in atmospheric CO2 are no longer here; most who will be affected are not yet born – Each of us has insignificant impact, but we must all act to have impact – Let’s learn how to interpret the numbers we can get CEE 113 April 17 22 Buildings represent ~38% of Energy -- directly Primary Energy (Quad BTUs) consumption by sector . Source: US DOE 23 CEE 113 April 17 23 Lighting is the greatest energy user in commercial buildings Primary Energy consumption (Quad BTUs) . Source: US DOE 24 Residential energy use can be improved Residential energy scenarios (Quad BTUs) . Source: US DOE 25 U.S. building sector (residential and commercial): employs 8 million people; ~10% of US GDP; ~115 million households, 5 million commercial buildings; energy consumption split ~50:50 commercial & residential US: 72% of electricity, 55% of natural gas, 40% of primary energy (> transportation or industry); – per year, 40 quads of primary energy, 2.7 trillion KW‐hr, 40% of CO2 emissions (2300 MMT; 7.5 MMTCO2 equivalent/person); utility bill/year: ~$400B; construction volume ~$1,000B By 2030, EIA estimates 16% growth in energy consumption +200 GW electrical capacity Arun Majumdar, UCB, Testimony Regarding Reducing Energy Consumption in Buildings, US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources CEE 113 April 17 26 Better building can save money! Building Industry 27 CEE 113 April 17 27 We use lots of energy in our buildings … We can control our use of water, electricity, consumption and our acquisitions Source: US Green Building Council 28 CEE 113 April 17 28 U.S. building sector (residential and commercial): employs 8 million people; ~10% of US GDP; ~115 million households, 5 million commercial buildings; energy consumption split ~50:50 commercial & residential US: 72% of electricity, 55% of natural gas, 40% of primary energy (> transportation or industry); – per year, 40 quads of primary energy, 2.7 trillion KW‐hr, 40% of CO2 emissions (2300 MMT; 7.5 MMTCO2 equivalent/person); utility bill/year: ~$400B; construction volume ~$1,000B By 2030, EIA estimates 16% growth in energy consumption +200 GW electrical capacity Arun Majumdar, UCB, Testimony Regarding Reducing Energy Consumption in Buildings, US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources 29 CEE 113 April 17 29 An example: Malmo, Sweden But Energy: 20 of 20 buildings used more than predicted The best example of – Prefabrication needed for sustainable development in intended energy the world: performance – Best design and analysis Land: much greater density methods (~2000) needed even for next project – Best construction – Development model did methods not last even a decade – Project provides some Data granularity: so coarse good data on that improvement difficult to performance vs. plan predicted Human capital: people on project mostly lost to next phase 30 CEE 113 April 17 30 Malmo, Sweden: Actual energy much worse than Predicted CEE 113 April 17 31 An example: Malmo, Sweden But Energy: 20 of 20 buildings used more than predicted The best example of – Prefabrication needed for sustainable development in intended energy the world: performance – Best design and analysis Land: much greater density methods (~2000) needed even for next project – Best construction – Development model did methods not last even a decade – Project provides some Data granularity: so coarse good data on that improvement difficult to performance vs. plan predicted Human capital: people on project mostly lost to next phase 32 CEE 113 April 17 32 Malmo, Sweden: Why the discrepancies? Overly optimistic calibration factors from window vendors Analysis program did not properly consider thermal bridges Stick construction leaks air; only prefabrication of skin works CEE 113 April 17 33 Motivating Problem: Oberlin College “Performance is more compelling than design awards” (Ivanovich 2005) Big idea: Be careful -- predicted performance can be different than actual CEE 113 April 17 34 Oberlin College CEE 113 April 17 35 Oberlin College Source: John Scofield CEE 113 April 17 36 Oberlin College Energy consumption exceeds predicted Source: John Scofield - http://www.oberlin.edu/physics/Scofield/ASHRAEcomment.htm CEE 113 April 17 37 Oberlin College Energy Recovery Ventilation (ERV) Source: John Scofield CEE 113 April 17 38 Motivating Problem: LEED1 Astray? The APS study concluded, however, that the nation’s 121 LEED buildings actually use 30% more energy per square foot than the average for U.S. buildings. – They used the median value for the LEED buildings and